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Monthly Archives: December 2014

Our prognosticators have continued to run well and will continue backing the underdogs for the most part. They’re united behind Ole Miss, and mostly united behind Boise St. and Georgia Tech, although in the latter cases there is one strong of disagreement.

Tomorrow is the New Year’s celebration and our first semi-finals in the history of college football. Happy New Year’s y’all! 🙂

Tab
Compu-Picks Ole Miss 10788 17260 110329
The Power Rank Ole Miss 23625 37800 77596
F+ Ole Miss 29800 47680 85706
FEI Ole Miss 26713 42740 97897
Compu-Picks Boise St. 2518 3576
The Power Rank Boise St. 14789 21000
F+ Boise St. 35410 50282
FEI Arizona 25520 17600
Compu-Picks Georgia Tech 6797 10196
The Power Rank Miss St. 24080 12542
F+ Georgia Tech 8030 12045
FEI Georgia Tech 44695 67042

But that’s not going to stop me:

Reminder, these are not power rankings. You can’t use these numbers to get a spread. UVA is not .21 points better than Duke. 🙂

99.05 Kentucky 1
98.49 Virginia 2
98.28 Duke 3
97.09 Villanova 4
95.24 Gonzaga 5
95.22 Wisconsin 6
93.06 Louisville 7
92.05 Arizona 8
91.28 Kansas 9
90.16 TCU 10
90.00 West Virginia 11
89.67 Baylor 12
89.41 Northern Iowa 13
89.27 Wichita St. 14
89.07 St. John’s 15
88.95 VCU 16
88.90 North Carolina 17
88.64 Maryland 18
88.54 Iowa St. 19
88.26 Colorado St. 20
87.82 Texas 21
85.24 Utah 22
85.13 Oklahoma 23
84.13 Old Dominion 24
83.74 Notre Dame 25
83.58 San Diego St. 26
83.45 Washington 27
83.25 Oklahoma St. 28
82.71 Minnesota 29
82.32 Green Bay 30
82.16 Seton Hall 31
82.08 Arkansas 32
81.67 SMU 33
81.50 Georgetown 34
80.46 Georgia 35
80.39 BYU 36
80.33 Xavier 37
79.75 Providence 38
79.74 Davidson 39
79.74 Butler 40
79.69 George Washington 41
79.61 LSU 42
79.18 Penn St. 43
79.00 Cincinnati 44
78.91 Dayton 45
78.80 Stanford 46
78.80 Michigan St. 47
78.54 Ohio St. 48
78.23 Iowa 49
78.17 Stephen F. Austin 50
77.69 Florida 51
77.56 South Carolina 52
77.45 Harvard 53
77.42 Valparaiso 54
76.61 Syracuse 55
76.07 Buffalo 56
75.59 Connecticut 57
75.22 Temple 58
75.07 Alabama 59
75.03 Wofford 60
74.96 Rhode Island 61
74.71 Boise St. 62
74.64 Wyoming 63
74.18 Miami FL 64
74.14 Texas A&M 65
74.00 Oregon 66
73.91 Yale 67
73.71 Indiana 68
73.61 Georgia St. 69
73.61 California 70
73.49 Eastern Washington 71
73.42 Illinois 72
73.20 Saint Mary’s 73
73.09 Pittsburgh 74
72.73 UCLA 75
72.13 Eastern Michigan 76
71.69 UNLV 77
71.61 La Salle 78
71.23 Mississippi 79
71.14 Iona 80
71.08 Loyola Chicago 81
71.03 Georgia Tech 82
71.02 UTEP 83
70.77 North Carolina St. 84
70.58 Vanderbilt 85
70.46 Evansville 86
69.96 Illinois St. 87
68.78 Incarnate Word 88
68.56 Michigan 89
68.53 Murray St. 90
68.47 Central Michigan 91
68.37 Sam Houston St. 92
68.27 Charlotte 93
68.00 Tennessee 94
68.00 Stony Brook 95
67.86 Massachusetts 96
67.49 North Carolina Central 97
67.47 Long Beach St. 98
67.14 UC Santa Barbara 99
66.94 Tulsa 100
66.91 Louisiana Tech 101
66.84 Colorado 102
66.68 Northeastern 103
66.58 Eastern Kentucky 104
66.40 Creighton 105
66.08 Bowling Green 106
66.01 Memphis 107
65.89 High Point 108
65.58 Arizona St. 109
65.53 Coastal Carolina 110
65.53 Marquette 111
65.27 Florida Gulf Coast 112
65.25 Western Kentucky 113
65.11 Portland 114
65.06 Lafayette 115
64.82 Toledo 116
64.54 Belmont 117
63.96 Nebraska 118
63.42 Gardner Webb 119
63.28 New Mexico 120
62.59 Columbia 121
62.59 William & Mary 122
62.11 San Diego 123
62.10 St. Francis PA 124
61.85 UC Davis 125
61.40 Canisius 126
61.39 Purdue 127
61.12 Army 128
61.10 Hofstra 129
60.98 Kansas St. 130
60.73 Saint Joseph’s 131
60.52 American 132
60.29 Richmond 133
59.94 Kent St. 134
59.90 Cal Poly 135
59.71 Hawaii 136
59.35 St. Bonaventure 137
59.31 East Tennessee St. 138
59.03 Wright St. 139
59.02 Northwestern 140
58.90 Oregon St. 141
58.07 Radford 142
57.61 Clemson 143
57.55 Auburn 144
57.53 UC Irvine 145
57.35 South Dakota St. 146
57.30 UT Arlington 147
57.28 Cleveland St. 148
57.25 Georgia Southern 149
56.68 Wake Forest 150
56.45 USC Upstate 151
56.22 Western Michigan 152
56.03 Pepperdine 153
55.90 Texas Tech 154
55.65 Rutgers 155
55.47 New Mexico St. 156
55.39 Tulane 157
55.14 Detroit 158
55.07 Norfolk St. 159
55.05 Akron 160
54.90 Texas Southern 161
54.83 Florida St. 162
54.80 Boston College 163
54.47 North Florida 164
54.10 USC 165
54.02 Florida Atlantic 166
53.94 Lehigh 167
53.80 George Mason 168
53.38 UNC Wilmington 169
52.21 Tennessee Tech 170
52.20 Louisiana Lafayette 171
52.19 Utah St. 172
52.17 Northwestern St. 173
51.80 Texas St. 174
51.70 Rider 175
51.52 North Dakota St. 176
51.36 Tennessee Martin 177
51.25 San Francisco 178
51.15 Missouri 179
50.43 Vermont 180
50.20 Chattanooga 181
49.77 Middle Tennessee 182
49.60 Santa Clara 183
49.43 Holy Cross 184
49.25 Charleston Southern 185
48.90 Elon 186
48.64 Albany 187
48.08 Denver 188
48.03 IPFW 189
47.77 McNeese St. 190
47.28 Quinnipiac 191
47.14 Mississippi St. 192
46.95 Hartford 193
46.85 Oral Roberts 194
46.58 Bryant 195
46.36 Portland St. 196
46.32 Saint Peter’s 197
46.19 Missouri St. 198
46.16 New Orleans 199
46.08 FIU 200
45.86 Weber St. 201
45.81 Delaware St. 202
45.67 College of Charleston 203
45.52 Washington St. 204
45.25 Arkansas St. 205
45.03 Sacramento St. 206
44.71 Youngstown St. 207
44.65 Oakland 208
44.17 Northern Kentucky 209
43.95 Eastern Illinois 210
43.87 Louisiana Monroe 211
43.71 Air Force 212
43.63 St. Francis NY 213
43.55 Cornell 214
43.17 Saint Louis 215
43.13 UC Riverside 216
42.90 Brown 217
42.65 Pacific 218
42.53 James Madison 219
42.47 Fairleigh Dickinson 220
42.15 Princeton 221
42.13 Lamar 222
41.79 Virginia Tech 223
41.71 East Carolina 224
41.71 New Hampshire 225
41.48 Maryland Eastern Shore 226
41.40 Sacred Heart 227
41.32 South Florida 228
41.01 Northern Illinois 229
40.98 Western Carolina 230
40.93 South Dakota 231
40.71 Bucknell 232
40.61 Cal St. Fullerton 233
40.35 Towson 234
40.24 Winthrop 235
40.09 Idaho 236
39.94 Houston 237
39.83 Lipscomb 238
39.75 Seattle 239
39.69 North Texas 240
39.67 Manhattan 241
39.65 UMass Lowell 242
39.57 Northern Arizona 243
39.51 Boston University 244
39.41 Montana 245
39.01 Mercer 246
39.01 DePaul 247
38.80 Campbell 248
38.48 Nebraska Omaha 249
38.32 Southern Miss 250
38.28 North Dakota 251
38.20 Mount St. Mary’s 252
37.98 Ohio 253
37.83 Northern Colorado 254
37.70 UNC Asheville 255
37.32 Fresno St. 256
37.32 NJIT 257
37.30 Monmouth 258
37.25 Arkansas Little Rock 259
37.06 Southern Illinois 260
36.95 Dartmouth 261
36.66 Morehead St. 262
36.37 Siena 263
36.20 UAB 264
36.13 Texas Pan American 265
36.12 Milwaukee 266
35.74 UCF 267
35.52 Southeast Missouri St. 268
35.50 Colgate 269
35.29 Robert Morris 270
35.25 Alabama St. 271
35.19 Houston Baptist 272
34.47 Loyola Marymount 273
34.25 Hampton 274
34.14 VMI 275
34.10 Grand Canyon 276
34.06 Nevada 277
33.99 Fordham 278
33.70 Southern 279
33.65 LIU Brooklyn 280
33.63 Troy 281
33.62 Marshall 282
33.58 UTSA 283
33.02 Appalachian St. 284
32.91 Southeastern Louisiana 285
32.89 Fairfield 286
32.66 Drexel 287
32.60 Howard 288
32.36 UMKC 289
31.66 Jacksonville St. 290
31.18 Nicholls St. 291
30.86 Loyola MD 292
30.86 Duquesne 293
30.16 Bradley 294
30.13 Austin Peay 295
29.47 Indiana St. 296
29.03 Savannah St. 297
29.02 Ball St. 298
28.93 Montana St. 299
28.80 Penn 300
28.36 Abilene Christian 301
27.91 Western Illinois 302
27.54 Grambling St. 303
27.41 Furman 304
27.29 Liberty 305
26.98 The Citadel 306
26.97 Cal St. Northridge 307
26.66 Miami OH 308
26.54 IUPUI 309
26.43 Prairie View A&M 310
26.29 Cal St. Bakersfield 311
26.17 Texas A&M Corpus Chris 312
25.51 SIU Edwardsville 313
25.31 Drake 314
25.19 Samford 315
25.17 UNC Greensboro 316
24.80 Chicago St. 317
24.80 Utah Valley 318
24.42 Navy 319
23.90 Wagner 320
23.84 Presbyterian 321
22.74 Stetson 322
22.67 Niagara 323
22.40 Arkansas Pine Bluff 324
22.12 Rice 325
21.96 Kennesaw St. 326
21.82 Jacksonville 327
21.77 Idaho St. 328
21.22 South Carolina St. 329
21.19 Longwood 330
21.08 Jackson St. 331
20.97 Morgan St. 332
20.93 Illinois Chicago 333
20.02 South Alabama 334
19.55 Southern Utah 335
18.85 Tennessee St. 336
17.45 Coppin St. 337
16.59 Central Connecticut 338
14.51 Alabama A&M 339
14.20 UMBC 340
14.10 North Carolina A&T 341
13.96 San Jose St. 342
13.74 Alcorn St. 343
13.09 Maine 344
13.06 Bethune Cookman 345
12.83 Marist 346
10.40 Mississippi Valley St. 347
10.05 Delaware 348
9.94 Binghamton 349
3.42 Central Arkansas 350
2.73 Florida A&M 351

Today is a day for the dogs, with the exception of Ed Feng’s The Power Rank, which likes Georgia and Stanford enough to pay the big prices hung on them. Collectively our heroes are up over 280K, or 2.8 bankroll’s worth. Not bad.

Tab
Compu-Picks Notre Dame 16818 46250 77301
The Power Rank Notre Dame 7273 20000 43567
F+ Notre Dame 2773 7625 90497
FEI Notre Dame 10136 27875 73509
Compu-Picks Louisville 0 0
The Power Rank Georgia 26000 9630
F+ Louisville 3077 8000
FEI Louisville 2523 6560
Compu-Picks Maryland 13222 61880
The Power Rank Stanford 22000 4400
F+ Maryland 9338 43704
FEI Maryland 964 4512

We are going to see some significant swings today. We have a pair of games where F+ and FEI like the favorites, and Compu-Picks and the Power Rank think the dogs are catching good prices. We also have one game where Compu-Picks is barely priced out of taking Oklahoma, while everyone else thinks Clemson is good value. It should be another fun day of football. 🙂

Tab
Compu-Picks Texas A&M 20248 29360 80772
The Power Rank Texas A&M 2000 2900 48434
F+ West Virginia 29500 19667 89415
FEI West Virginia 21250 14167 20021
Compu-Picks Oklahoma 0 0
The Power Rank Clemson 9778 17600
F+ Clemson 9622 17320
FEI Clemson 30000 54000
Compu-Picks Texas 32831 80435
The Power Rank Texas 25367 62150
F+ Arkansas 34480 13262
FEI Arkansas 53920 20738

Football Outsiders tab has dropped to -$5,275,655. Even a Steelers victory cannot save them from finishing the regular season 5M in the hole. For those of you who are wondering, if we were using the World Cup methodology Football Outsiders would be down to $61, and a Steelers loss would drop them to $49. Oy vey is meir!

Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Pittsburgh -3. risking $193,219 to win $193,219

The current tab is -$4,351,997. Football Outsiders has a chance to get that down with a good run this afternoon:

Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers

Green Bay -8, risking $8,545 to win $7,839

Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos

Oakland +16, risking $201,600 to win $201,600

Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers

San Francisco -6, risking $248,818 to win $236,970

St. Louis Rams @ Seattle Seahawks

St. Louis +11, risking $117,905 to win $112,290

Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta -2.5, risking 363,174 to win $356,053

Only one more regular season game after these. I’ll be back this evening for Cinc-Pitt.

I won’t lie. I wasn’t expecting Football Outsiders to have nearly a tough as run as they had. In fact, I would have been very confident they’d end up within $2M from their starting point, but I’ll run a statistical analysis on their standard deviation another time. For now, week 17:

New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins

Miami -7, risking $69,651 to win $67,622

Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots

Buffalo +4, risking $273,259 to win $273,259

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans

Football Outsiders agrees with the line

Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings

Football Outsiders agrees with the line

New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Football Outsiders agrees with the line.

Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans

Tennessee +7.5, risking $78,830 to win $72,991

Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens

Baltimore-14, risking $20,079 to win $20,079

San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City -2.5, risking $229,069 to win $208,245

Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins

Football Outsiders agrees with the line

Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants

New York Giants pk’em, risking $30,106 to win $29,229

The current tab -$4,674,993