48 hours of great college football!

Our prognosticators have continued to run well and will continue backing the underdogs for the most part. They’re united behind Ole Miss, and mostly united behind Boise St. and Georgia Tech, although in the latter cases there is one strong of disagreement.

Tomorrow is the New Year’s celebration and our first semi-finals in the history of college football. Happy New Year’s y’all! 🙂

					Tab
Compu-Picks	Ole Miss	10788	17260		110329
The Power Rank	Ole Miss	23625	37800		77596
F+	Ole Miss	29800	47680		85706
FEI	Ole Miss	26713	42740		97897
Compu-Picks	Boise St.	2518	3576
The Power Rank	Boise St.	14789	21000
F+	Boise St.	35410	50282
FEI	Arizona	25520	17600
Compu-Picks	Georgia Tech	6797	10196
The Power Rank	Miss St.	24080	12542
F+	Georgia Tech	8030	12045
FEI	Georgia Tech	44695	67042

It is far too early for College Basketball Elo rankings

But that’s not going to stop me:

Reminder, these are not power rankings. You can’t use these numbers to get a spread. UVA is not .21 points better than Duke. 🙂

99.05	Kentucky	1
98.49	Virginia	2
98.28	Duke	3
97.09	Villanova	4
95.24	Gonzaga	5
95.22	Wisconsin	6
93.06	Louisville	7
92.05	Arizona	8
91.28	Kansas	9
90.16	TCU	10
90.00	West Virginia	11
89.67	Baylor	12
89.41	Northern Iowa	13
89.27	Wichita St.	14
89.07	St. John’s	15
88.95	VCU	16
88.90	North Carolina	17
88.64	Maryland	18
88.54	Iowa St.	19
88.26	Colorado St.	20
87.82	Texas	21
85.24	Utah	22
85.13	Oklahoma	23
84.13	Old Dominion	24
83.74	Notre Dame	25
83.58	San Diego St.	26
83.45	Washington	27
83.25	Oklahoma St.	28
82.71	Minnesota	29
82.32	Green Bay	30
82.16	Seton Hall	31
82.08	Arkansas	32
81.67	SMU	33
81.50	Georgetown	34
80.46	Georgia	35
80.39	BYU	36
80.33	Xavier	37
79.75	Providence	38
79.74	Davidson	39
79.74	Butler	40
79.69	George Washington	41
79.61	LSU	42
79.18	Penn St.	43
79.00	Cincinnati	44
78.91	Dayton	45
78.80	Stanford	46
78.80	Michigan St.	47
78.54	Ohio St.	48
78.23	Iowa	49
78.17	Stephen F. Austin	50
77.69	Florida	51
77.56	South Carolina	52
77.45	Harvard	53
77.42	Valparaiso	54
76.61	Syracuse	55
76.07	Buffalo	56
75.59	Connecticut	57
75.22	Temple	58
75.07	Alabama	59
75.03	Wofford	60
74.96	Rhode Island	61
74.71	Boise St.	62
74.64	Wyoming	63
74.18	Miami FL	64
74.14	Texas A&M	65
74.00	Oregon	66
73.91	Yale	67
73.71	Indiana	68
73.61	Georgia St.	69
73.61	California	70
73.49	Eastern Washington	71
73.42	Illinois	72
73.20	Saint Mary’s	73
73.09	Pittsburgh	74
72.73	UCLA	75
72.13	Eastern Michigan	76
71.69	UNLV	77
71.61	La Salle	78
71.23	Mississippi	79
71.14	Iona	80
71.08	Loyola Chicago	81
71.03	Georgia Tech	82
71.02	UTEP	83
70.77	North Carolina St.	84
70.58	Vanderbilt	85
70.46	Evansville	86
69.96	Illinois St.	87
68.78	Incarnate Word	88
68.56	Michigan	89
68.53	Murray St.	90
68.47	Central Michigan	91
68.37	Sam Houston St.	92
68.27	Charlotte	93
68.00	Tennessee	94
68.00	Stony Brook	95
67.86	Massachusetts	96
67.49	North Carolina Central	97
67.47	Long Beach St.	98
67.14	UC Santa Barbara	99
66.94	Tulsa	100
66.91	Louisiana Tech	101
66.84	Colorado	102
66.68	Northeastern	103
66.58	Eastern Kentucky	104
66.40	Creighton	105
66.08	Bowling Green	106
66.01	Memphis	107
65.89	High Point	108
65.58	Arizona St.	109
65.53	Coastal Carolina	110
65.53	Marquette	111
65.27	Florida Gulf Coast	112
65.25	Western Kentucky	113
65.11	Portland	114
65.06	Lafayette	115
64.82	Toledo	116
64.54	Belmont	117
63.96	Nebraska	118
63.42	Gardner Webb	119
63.28	New Mexico	120
62.59	Columbia	121
62.59	William & Mary	122
62.11	San Diego	123
62.10	St. Francis PA	124
61.85	UC Davis	125
61.40	Canisius	126
61.39	Purdue	127
61.12	Army	128
61.10	Hofstra	129
60.98	Kansas St.	130
60.73	Saint Joseph’s	131
60.52	American	132
60.29	Richmond	133
59.94	Kent St.	134
59.90	Cal Poly	135
59.71	Hawaii	136
59.35	St. Bonaventure	137
59.31	East Tennessee St.	138
59.03	Wright St.	139
59.02	Northwestern	140
58.90	Oregon St.	141
58.07	Radford	142
57.61	Clemson	143
57.55	Auburn	144
57.53	UC Irvine	145
57.35	South Dakota St.	146
57.30	UT Arlington	147
57.28	Cleveland St.	148
57.25	Georgia Southern	149
56.68	Wake Forest	150
56.45	USC Upstate	151
56.22	Western Michigan	152
56.03	Pepperdine	153
55.90	Texas Tech	154
55.65	Rutgers	155
55.47	New Mexico St.	156
55.39	Tulane	157
55.14	Detroit	158
55.07	Norfolk St.	159
55.05	Akron	160
54.90	Texas Southern	161
54.83	Florida St.	162
54.80	Boston College	163
54.47	North Florida	164
54.10	USC	165
54.02	Florida Atlantic	166
53.94	Lehigh	167
53.80	George Mason	168
53.38	UNC Wilmington	169
52.21	Tennessee Tech	170
52.20	Louisiana Lafayette	171
52.19	Utah St.	172
52.17	Northwestern St.	173
51.80	Texas St.	174
51.70	Rider	175
51.52	North Dakota St.	176
51.36	Tennessee Martin	177
51.25	San Francisco	178
51.15	Missouri	179
50.43	Vermont	180
50.20	Chattanooga	181
49.77	Middle Tennessee	182
49.60	Santa Clara	183
49.43	Holy Cross	184
49.25	Charleston Southern	185
48.90	Elon	186
48.64	Albany	187
48.08	Denver	188
48.03	IPFW	189
47.77	McNeese St.	190
47.28	Quinnipiac	191
47.14	Mississippi St.	192
46.95	Hartford	193
46.85	Oral Roberts	194
46.58	Bryant	195
46.36	Portland St.	196
46.32	Saint Peter’s	197
46.19	Missouri St.	198
46.16	New Orleans	199
46.08	FIU	200
45.86	Weber St.	201
45.81	Delaware St.	202
45.67	College of Charleston	203
45.52	Washington St.	204
45.25	Arkansas St.	205
45.03	Sacramento St.	206
44.71	Youngstown St.	207
44.65	Oakland	208
44.17	Northern Kentucky	209
43.95	Eastern Illinois	210
43.87	Louisiana Monroe	211
43.71	Air Force	212
43.63	St. Francis NY	213
43.55	Cornell	214
43.17	Saint Louis	215
43.13	UC Riverside	216
42.90	Brown	217
42.65	Pacific	218
42.53	James Madison	219
42.47	Fairleigh Dickinson	220
42.15	Princeton	221
42.13	Lamar	222
41.79	Virginia Tech	223
41.71	East Carolina	224
41.71	New Hampshire	225
41.48	Maryland Eastern Shore	226
41.40	Sacred Heart	227
41.32	South Florida	228
41.01	Northern Illinois	229
40.98	Western Carolina	230
40.93	South Dakota	231
40.71	Bucknell	232
40.61	Cal St. Fullerton	233
40.35	Towson	234
40.24	Winthrop	235
40.09	Idaho	236
39.94	Houston	237
39.83	Lipscomb	238
39.75	Seattle	239
39.69	North Texas	240
39.67	Manhattan	241
39.65	UMass Lowell	242
39.57	Northern Arizona	243
39.51	Boston University	244
39.41	Montana	245
39.01	Mercer	246
39.01	DePaul	247
38.80	Campbell	248
38.48	Nebraska Omaha	249
38.32	Southern Miss	250
38.28	North Dakota	251
38.20	Mount St. Mary’s	252
37.98	Ohio	253
37.83	Northern Colorado	254
37.70	UNC Asheville	255
37.32	Fresno St.	256
37.32	NJIT	257
37.30	Monmouth	258
37.25	Arkansas Little Rock	259
37.06	Southern Illinois	260
36.95	Dartmouth	261
36.66	Morehead St.	262
36.37	Siena	263
36.20	UAB	264
36.13	Texas Pan American	265
36.12	Milwaukee	266
35.74	UCF	267
35.52	Southeast Missouri St.	268
35.50	Colgate	269
35.29	Robert Morris	270
35.25	Alabama St.	271
35.19	Houston Baptist	272
34.47	Loyola Marymount	273
34.25	Hampton	274
34.14	VMI	275
34.10	Grand Canyon	276
34.06	Nevada	277
33.99	Fordham	278
33.70	Southern	279
33.65	LIU Brooklyn	280
33.63	Troy	281
33.62	Marshall	282
33.58	UTSA	283
33.02	Appalachian St.	284
32.91	Southeastern Louisiana	285
32.89	Fairfield	286
32.66	Drexel	287
32.60	Howard	288
32.36	UMKC	289
31.66	Jacksonville St.	290
31.18	Nicholls St.	291
30.86	Loyola MD	292
30.86	Duquesne	293
30.16	Bradley	294
30.13	Austin Peay	295
29.47	Indiana St.	296
29.03	Savannah St.	297
29.02	Ball St.	298
28.93	Montana St.	299
28.80	Penn	300
28.36	Abilene Christian	301
27.91	Western Illinois	302
27.54	Grambling St.	303
27.41	Furman	304
27.29	Liberty	305
26.98	The Citadel	306
26.97	Cal St. Northridge	307
26.66	Miami OH	308
26.54	IUPUI	309
26.43	Prairie View A&M	310
26.29	Cal St. Bakersfield	311
26.17	Texas A&M Corpus Chris	312
25.51	SIU Edwardsville	313
25.31	Drake	314
25.19	Samford	315
25.17	UNC Greensboro	316
24.80	Chicago St.	317
24.80	Utah Valley	318
24.42	Navy	319
23.90	Wagner	320
23.84	Presbyterian	321
22.74	Stetson	322
22.67	Niagara	323
22.40	Arkansas Pine Bluff	324
22.12	Rice	325
21.96	Kennesaw St.	326
21.82	Jacksonville	327
21.77	Idaho St.	328
21.22	South Carolina St.	329
21.19	Longwood	330
21.08	Jackson St.	331
20.97	Morgan St.	332
20.93	Illinois Chicago	333
20.02	South Alabama	334
19.55	Southern Utah	335
18.85	Tennessee St.	336
17.45	Coppin St.	337
16.59	Central Connecticut	338
14.51	Alabama A&M	339
14.20	UMBC	340
14.10	North Carolina A&T	341
13.96	San Jose St.	342
13.74	Alcorn St.	343
13.09	Maine	344
13.06	Bethune Cookman	345
12.83	Marist	346
10.40	Mississippi Valley St.	347
10.05	Delaware	348
9.94	Binghamton	349
3.42	Central Arkansas	350
2.73	Florida A&M	351

Another solid day for the NCAA prognosticators

Today is a day for the dogs, with the exception of Ed Feng’s The Power Rank, which likes Georgia and Stanford enough to pay the big prices hung on them. Collectively our heroes are up over 280K, or 2.8 bankroll’s worth. Not bad.

					Tab
Compu-Picks	Notre Dame	16818	46250		77301
The Power Rank	Notre Dame	7273	20000		43567
F+	Notre Dame	2773	7625		90497
FEI	Notre Dame	10136	27875		73509
Compu-Picks	Louisville	0	0
The Power Rank	Georgia	26000	9630
F+	Louisville	3077	8000
FEI	Louisville	2523	6560
Compu-Picks	Maryland	13222	61880
The Power Rank	Stanford	22000	4400
F+	Maryland	9338	43704
FEI	Maryland	964	4512

Everyone’s above-average, but will they stay that way?

We are going to see some significant swings today. We have a pair of games where F+ and FEI like the favorites, and Compu-Picks and the Power Rank think the dogs are catching good prices. We also have one game where Compu-Picks is barely priced out of taking Oklahoma, while everyone else thinks Clemson is good value. It should be another fun day of football. 🙂

					Tab
Compu-Picks	Texas A&M	20248	29360		80772
The Power Rank	Texas A&M	2000	2900		48434
F+	West Virginia	29500	19667		89415
FEI	West Virginia	21250	14167		20021
Compu-Picks	Oklahoma	0	0
The Power Rank	Clemson	9778	17600
F+	Clemson	9622	17320
FEI	Clemson	30000	54000
Compu-Picks	Texas	32831	80435
The Power Rank	Texas	25367	62150
F+	Arkansas	34480	13262
FEI	Arkansas	53920	20738

What a brutal afternoon.

Football Outsiders tab has dropped to -$5,275,655. Even a Steelers victory cannot save them from finishing the regular season 5M in the hole. For those of you who are wondering, if we were using the World Cup methodology Football Outsiders would be down to $61, and a Steelers loss would drop them to $49. Oy vey is meir!

Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Pittsburgh -3. risking $193,219 to win $193,219

A final push to get the tab under $4M?

The current tab is -$4,351,997. Football Outsiders has a chance to get that down with a good run this afternoon:

Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers

Green Bay -8, risking $8,545 to win $7,839

Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos

Oakland +16, risking $201,600 to win $201,600

Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers

San Francisco -6, risking $248,818 to win $236,970

St. Louis Rams @ Seattle Seahawks

St. Louis +11, risking $117,905 to win $112,290

Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta -2.5, risking 363,174 to win $356,053

Only one more regular season game after these. I’ll be back this evening for Cinc-Pitt.

A long tough regular season finally comes to an end

I won’t lie. I wasn’t expecting Football Outsiders to have nearly a tough as run as they had. In fact, I would have been very confident they’d end up within $2M from their starting point, but I’ll run a statistical analysis on their standard deviation another time. For now, week 17:

New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins

Miami -7, risking $69,651 to win $67,622

Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots

Buffalo +4, risking $273,259 to win $273,259

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans

Football Outsiders agrees with the line

Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings

Football Outsiders agrees with the line

New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Football Outsiders agrees with the line.

Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans

Tennessee +7.5, risking $78,830 to win $72,991

Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens

Baltimore-14, risking $20,079 to win $20,079

San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City -2.5, risking $229,069 to win $208,245

Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins

Football Outsiders agrees with the line

Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants

New York Giants pk’em, risking $30,106 to win $29,229

The current tab -$4,674,993

We stand united behind Virginia Tech, Duke, and Nebraska!

Actually, in the case of Duke The Power Rank agrees with the line, and all four prognosticators think Duke and Nebraska are both likely to lose. In the case of Virginia Tech all four prognosticators see value there, especially FEI. If not for Compu-Picks, there would be unanimity behind Miami. The truly divisive game of the day is Penn St. vs. BC. Compu-Picks and The Power Rank like Penn St. outright, whereas F+ and FEI see BC as above 70% likely to win.

Right now F+ has a fairly sizable lead, but as always, when Ye’ sail full Kelly, the waves be steep!

					Tab
Compu-Picks	Virginia Tech	4668	5462		36659
The Power Rank	Virginia Tech	23957	28030		36372
F+	Virginia Tech	42504	49730		157259
FEI	Virginia Tech	65132	76204		3659
Compu-Picks	Duke	7282	18570
The Power Rank	Duke	0	0
F+	Duke	16888	43065
FEI	Duke	14939	38095
Compu-Picks	South Carolina	21288	29165
The Power Rank	Miami	26500	18276
F+	Miami	47325	32638
FEI	Miami	4695	3238
Compu-Picks	Penn St.	25786	35327
The Power Rank	Penn St.	18693	25610
F+	BC	36055	24866
FEI	BC	36545	25203
Compu-Picks	Nebraska	18559	47325
The Power Rank	Nebraska	15078	38450
F+	Nebraska	17306	44130
FEI	Nebraska	3663	9340

Back to the Bowls

All four of our prognosticators are still well above the Mendoza line. Each game features a significant level of disagreement between 2 or more of the systems, so we’ll see some movement and perhaps a larger gap heading into tomorrow.

					Tab
Compu-Picks	Illinois	24364	53600		41163
The Power Rank	Illinois	14182	31200		52454
F+	La Tech	23770	10335		70150
FEI	La Tech	2320	1009		30643
Compu-Picks	Rutgers	12413	19860
The Power Rank	Rutgers	13875	22200
F+	Rutgers	28500	45600
FEI	UNC	31943	18901
Compu-Picks	UCF	0	0
The Power Rank	UCF	24100	18538
F+	NC State	24940	31175
FEI	NC State	3160	3950

Christmas Eve Football!

First, let me note a correction: F+ backed Colorado St., not Utah. I have made that adjustment to the spreadsheet. Even with that change, all four prognosticators are well above the Mendoza line. They are evenly split on the first game (although Compu-Picks loves Central Michigan). In the second game we have our first non-play of the Bowl season as The Power Rank agrees with the line (at the time I locked the plays).

					Tab
Compu-Picks	Central Michigan	21084	32048		76997
The Power Rank	Central Michigan	5500	8360		57954
F+	Western Kentucky	3540	2213		60297
FEI	Western Kentucky	11600	7250		53360
Compu-Picks	Fresno St.	14750	17700
The Power Rank	Rice	0	0
F+	Rice	9550	7640
FEI	Fresno St.	29967	35960

Enjoy the games and happy holidays! 🙂