PFF: En Fuego?

PFF has had an amazing start to their college season. Will it continue?

SMU	2.5	12800	12800	0	Spread
SMU	0	15320	19150	0	ML
Oregon	0	935	1450	0	ML
GA Southern-LSU	O52.5	9586	9307	0	OU
Vandy-UGA	O57.5	21500	19545	0	OU
Vanderbilt	22.5	24448	22637	0	Spread
Virginia	0	10480	8062	0	ML
Virginia	2.5	9472	8770	0	Spread
Virginia-Pitt	O46.5	18200	17843	0	OU
Wyoming	16.5	2800	2800	0	Spread
Missouri-Wyoming	U53.5	26944	24948	0	OU
MTSU	35	18165	17300	0	Spread
MTSU-Michigan	U55.5	18140	16491	0	OU
Miami OH-Iowa	O46.5	16460	14964	0	OU
Texas	-20.5	15482	15329	0	Spread
Texas	0	26624	2412	0	ML
LA Tech-Texas	O55.5	3610	3438	0	OU
New Mexico St.	33.5	32744	30602	0	Spread
Fresno St.	13.5	23048	22596	0	Spread
Fresno St.	0	9772	41824	0	ML
Fresno St.-USC	O52.5	5129	5232	0	OU

PFF: The afternoon games

PFF is off to a good start and looks like they’ll be up $60K on the season after the morning games.

Boise St.-FSU	U54.5	500	455	0	OU
UNC	0	13175	46246	0	ML
UNC	11.5	29900	27182	0	Spread
E Michigan-C Carolina	o54	29174	25818	0	OU
Coastal Carolina	0	3105	5900	0	ML
Coastal Carolina	6	3523	3262	0	Spread
Duke	32.5	13874	13737	0	Spread
NW-Stanford	U47.5	11420	10382	0	OU
Stanford	-6.5	4592	4292	0	Spread
Stanford	0	6248	2789	0	ML
Boston College	4.5	21766	21132	0	Spread
Boston College	0	16718	28420	0	ML
VT-BC	U58.5	7640	6945	0	OU
Liberty	19.5	15836	14940	0	Spread
Syracuse-Liberty	U68.5	16320	15543	0	OU

PFF: The Early Slate

I need to figure out how to do this as a Google doc that updates as the games kick off. Is that possible?

PFF is up $36,299 on the season so far.

Kentucky	-10	16124	14658	0	Spread
Kentucky	0	29800	8278	0	ML
Toledo-Kentucky	U61.5	80	73	0	OU
Ball St.	18.5	10480	9887	0	Spread
Mississippi St-ULL	U60.5	5660	5390	0	OU
FAU	28	24947	23099	0	Spread
FAU-Ohio St.	u66	15080	14931	0	OU
South Alabama	36	17508	15224	0	Spread
Boise St.	6.5	21604	20381	0	Spread
Boise St.	0	18488	37900	0	ML
Boise St.-FSU	U54.5	500	455	0	OU

PFF: Friday night lights

PFF has started the season on fire, and are up $97,523. They’ll try and keep the run going:

Army	-23.5	9452	9358	0	Spread
USF	10.5	7392	6844	0	Spread
Wisconsin-USF	u59	3231	2859	0	OU
Tulsa	23.5	1712	1646	0	Spread
Umass	16.5	20780	19604	0	Spread
Umass-Rutgers	o55	4135	4259	0	OU
Utah St.	4.5	5540	5036	0	Spread
Utah St.	0	5325	8520	0	ML
Utah St.-WF	U60.5	206	182	0	OU
Nevada	11	12302	11184	0	Spread
Nevada	0	4847	16672	0	ML
Purdue-Nevada	U57.5	20715	21544	0	OU
Colorado	-13.5	1828	1725	0	Spread
OK St.-Oregon St.	O71.5	13100	11909	0	OU
Oregon St.	14	22797	19823	0	Spread

 

PFF: Thursday Night Football

I still have to figure out the best way to organize this information. PFF is currently up $8,395 on the season.

Side	Line	Risked	To Win	Result	Type
Miami	7	7120	7050	7050	Spread
Miami	0	8356	21056	-8356	ML
Hawaii-Ariz	O71.5	9992	9701	9701	OU
Cincinnati	-2.5	26120	23745	0	Spread
Cincinnati	0	26372	19681	0	ML
UCLA-Cinc	u56	3058	2941	0	OU
Utah-BYU	U48.5	2240	2113	0	OU
Utah	-6.5	29456	28323	0	Spread
Utah	0	38624	16940	0	ML
Georgia Tech	37	1993	1880	0	Spread
GT-Clemson	u61	6758	6144	0	OU
Tulane	-3	3888	3634	0	Spread
Tulane	0	4980	3434	0	ML
FIU-Tulane	O58.5	5526	5365	0	OU
Texas St.-Texas A&M	u57	2852	2593	0	OU

 

PFF: 2019 NCAAF: It Begins

I haven’t decided the best way to track PFF in college football. I looked in at he lines at  6:30 PM. I think I’ll set a few standard times, but that will have to be decided next week.

For now, PFF will root for Miami and offense in Hawaii.

Side	Line	Risked	To Win	Result
Miami	7	7120	7050	0
Miami	0	8356	21056	0
Hawaii-Ariz	O71.5	9992	9701	0

PFF: Those who forget History

Here is a look back at last season, game-by-game.

For reference, they were given a standardized bankroll of $200,000. That means that every bet was made assuming a $200K bankroll. The results were horrific.

Current Tab	-$901,940.66
% of Bankroll	-450.97%
Standard Dev	476519
Two-tailed Z	-1.89
ROI	-10.53%

Scroll down at your own risk.

Side	Line	Risked	to win	Result	Net Result
Patriots	0	37945	15178	15178	15178
Patriots	-6.5	19880	19880	19880	35058
Steelers	-3.5	21807	22898	-21807	13251
Steelers	0	17387	10109	0	13251
Jaguars	-3	22367	23038	23038	36289
Jaguars	0	23282	15838	15838	52127
Seahawks	0	13448	20845	-13448	38679
Seahawks	3	18187	19642	0	38679
Lions	-7	4080	4080	-4080	34599
Lions	0	7640	2547	-7640	26959
Cin-Ind	U47.5	18119	17764	-18119	8840
TB-NO	U50	20158	18840	-20158	-11319
Falcons	-5.5	3114	2883	2883	-8436
Falcons	0	7749	3312	3312	-5124
Car-ATL	U43.5	12850	12356	-12850	-17974
SD-Buf	U41.5	21878	19889	-21878	-39852
Bills	7.5	29387	26006	-29387	-69239
Saints	0	36459	8558	8558	-60681
Saints	-9.5	10659	9961	-10659	-71340
Cle-NO	U50.5	39600	39600	39600	-31740
Titans	3.5	2254	1995	1995	-29745
Titans	0	2932	4779	4779	-24965
KC-Pit	o53	24062	21875	21875	-3091
Steelers	0	5262	2555	-5262	-8353
Steelers	-4.5	1631	1568	-1631	-9985
Redskins	0	19837	8405	-19837	-29821
Eagles	0	17614	11902	-17614	-47436
Eagles	-3	16420	16420	-16420	-63856
Lions	6	7087	6880	6880	-56975
Lions	0	3989	9014	-3989	-60964
Det-SF	O48.5	13520	12291	12291	-48673
Patriots	0	10630	8370	-10630	-59303
Patriots	-2	11997	11318	-11997	-71300
Broncos	0	5361	2119	2119	-69181
Broncos	-6.5	3151	3246	-3151	-72332
Cowboys	0	10919	7136	7136	-65196
Cowboys	-3	8941	8356	8356	-56840
Seahawks	0	8264	15867	-8264	-65104
Seahawks	4.5	12570	12204	-12570	-77674
Jets	3	14346	14776	-14346	-92020
Jets	0	11549	17670	-11549	-103569
NYJ-Cle	o41	29358	28503	-29358	-132927
Falcons	0	9844	8203	-9844	-142771
Falcons	-1.5	10866	10349	-10866	-153637
NO-Atl	U53.5	40285	39887	-40285	-193923
Panthers	-2.5	13549	11781	11781	-182141
Panthers	0	7992	5628	5628	-176513
Giants	6	2216	2110	2110	-174403
Dolphins	0	5181	3754	3754	-170649
Dolphins	-3	1923	2000	2000	-168649
Chiefs	0	34379	14567	14567	-154081
Chiefs	-5.5	19553	17939	17939	-136143
SF-KC	o53	13133	12160	12160	-123983
Jaguars	0	25650	5700	-25650	-149633
Eagles	0	31393	11937	11937	-137696
Eagles	-6	17743	16130	-17743	-155439
Bills	16.5	4658	4235	4235	-151205
Buf-Min	o41	26836	25317	-26836	-178041
Redskins	2.5	10637	9849	9849	-168192
Rams	0	7873	2540	2540	-165652
Rams	-7	6965	6762	6762	-158890
SD-LAR	u49	41536	38107	-41536	-200426
Bears	0	17858	8044	8044	-192382
Bears	-5.5	9787	9502	-9787	-202169
Dal-Sea	o40	31104	30198	-31104	-233273
Patriots	0	42524	15297	-42524	-275798
Buccaneers	0	14787	12426	-14787	-290585
Buccaneers	-1.5	14695	13864	-14695	-305280
Rams	0	14720	4907	4907	-300373
Rams	-7	6049	5760	0	-300373
Min-LAR	U48.5	23577	22454	-23577	-323950
Cin-Atl	u52	31537	30324	-31537	-355487
Falcons	-3.5	11960	11960	-11960	-367447
Buccaneers	3	8688	7240	-8688	-376135
Colts	0	18435	17898	-18435	-394570
Colts	1	17874	18410	-17874	-412444
Hou-Ind	o48	18165	17300	-18165	-430609
NYJ-Jax	O40.5	10041	10242	10242	-420367
Jaguars	-7.5	15612	16861	16861	-403506
Buf-GB	O43.5	24770	24049	-24770	-428277
Cowboys	-2	36200	32909	0	-428277
Det-Dal	O43.5	20454	18939	18939	-409337
Patriots	-6.5	18476	16796	16796	-392541
Mia-NE	O51.5	12281	14000	-12281	-404822
Eagles	-3	26727	28330	-26727	-431549
Cardinals	3.5	18658	18473	18473	-413075
Sea-Ari	o40	9391	8944	-9391	-422466
Cle-Oak	O44.5	13998	13724	13724	-408743
Raiders	-2.5	15049	14332	14332	-394410
NO-NYG	U51.5	16366	16204	16204	-378206
Saints	-3	19736	17780	17780	-360426
SF-SD	o46	9539	8517	8517	-351909
Bal-Pit	O51.5	1961	2000	-1961	-353869
KC-Den	O53.5	10757	11079	-10757	-364626
Chiefs	-3.5	3846	4000	4000	-360626
Patriots	0	25535	5527	5527	-355099
Patriots	-10.5	4529	4755	4755	-350344
Ind-NE	O50.5	96343	90040	90040	-260304
Titans	0	23880	13267	-23880	-284184
Panthers	0	10671	3642	3642	-280542
Panthers	-7	5121	5020	-5121	-285663
Bengals	0	18787	7310	7310	-278353
Mia-Cin	O49.5	32538	33189	-32538	-310891
Bal-Clev	o47	22010	21369	-22010	-332900
Ravens	0	16077	9685	-16077	-348977
Ravens	-3	14528	12744	-14528	-363506
GB-Det	o51	32186	29801	29801	-333704
Packers	0	18737	16581	-18737	-352441
Jax-KC	o49	19744	18453	-19744	-372186
Chiefs	-3	7414	6392	6392	-365794
Den-NYJ	O42.5	41974	41558	41558	-324236
Falcons	3	5660	6000	-5660	-329896
Atl-Pit	U57.5	69349	67329	-69349	-399245
Raiders	0	2123	4140	-2123	-401368
Oak-SD	O53.5	31560	31560	-31560	-432928
Eagles	-3	18500	15417	-18500	-451428
Rams	0	27282	8579	8579	-442849
Ariz-SF	o41	19800	19800	19800	-423049
Cardinals	4.5	24733	22690	22690	-400358
Cowboys	3.5	32509	27318	27318	-373040
Dal-Hou	O45.5	1060	1029	-1060	-374100
Wash-NO	o52	15603	15448	15448	-358652
Eagles	0	27086	20835	20835	-337817
Phi-NYG	O44.5	24989	23138	23138	-314679
Pit-Cin	O49.5	42840	42840	-42840	-357519
Steelers	0	9574	9957	9957	-347562
LAC-Clev	u47	16040	14582	-16040	-363602
Bills	10.5	45277	40068	40068	-323534
Buf-Hou	U40.5	9680	8963	8963	-314571
TB-Atl	u57	2566	2376	-2566	-317137
Buccaneers	3	17384	15804	-17384	-334521
Seahawks	0	4608	3093	3093	-331429
Raiders	3	9127	8373	-9127	-340556
Sea-Oak	o48	39882	36927	-39882	-380437
Car-Wash	U44.5	18582	17206	17206	-363231
Panthers	0	922	782	-922	-364154
Cardinals	10	179	156	0	-364154
Ariz-Min	O42.5	12295	10978	10978	-353176
Colts	2.5	4891	4940	-4891	-358067
Chi-Mia	u41	5839	5357	-5839	-363906
Dolphins	7.5	63445	53767	53767	-310139
LAR-Den	o50	95228	89838	-95228	-405367
Rams	0	29831	10181	10181	-395186
Jax-Dal	u39	9030	9120	-9030	-404216
Cowboys	3	32182	32825	32825	-371391
Ravens	0	19543	14918	14918	-356473
Bal-Ten	O43.5	55058	53454	-55058	-411531
KC-NE	O59.5	115804	119278	119278	-292252
Patriots	0	7324	3855	3855	-288398
Packers	0	21158	5303	5303	-283095
SF-GB	u46	17468	15880	-17468	-300563
Den-Ariz	O42.5	64066	65347	65347	-235215
Chargers	0	22326	8299	8299	-226916
Chargers	-6.5	12696	12447	-12696	-239612
Ten-LAC	o45	74991	71420	-74991	-314603
Min-NYJ	u46	12966	12006	-12966	-327569
Jets	3.5	39982	38445	-39982	-367551
Browns	3.5	13133	12160	12160	-355391
Cle-TB	o52	21441	20817	-21441	-376832
Dolphins	3	12138	12503	-12138	-388971
Lions	0	2083	1262	1262	-387709
Det-Mia	u47	1928	1662	-1928	-389637
Texans	4	12261	11677	11677	-377960
Car-Phi	U44.5	2928	2842	2842	-375117
Eagles	0	2393	1036	-2393	-377510
NE-Chi	U48.5	27677	26359	-27677	-405187
Patriots	0	20886	16981	16981	-388206
Bills	7	22517	20658	-22517	-410724
Buf-Ind	u43	32017	31389	31389	-379335
NO-Bal	u49	40778	37071	37071	-342264
Saints	2.5	4762	5000	5000	-337264
Dal-Was	U41.5	46496	43052	43052	-294212
LAR-SF	o52	4405	4235	-4405	-298617
Rams	0	67821	17801	17801	-280816
Chiefs	0	23449	9811	9811	-271005
Cin-KC	o58	38043	35889	-38043	-309047
NYG-ATL	o52	78040	78040	-78040	-387087
Falcons	0	18700	9350	9350	-377737
Falcons	-4	12588	11989	-12588	-390325
Dolphins	0	6414	19884	-6414	-396740
Dolphins	7.5	9752	8707	-9752	-406491
Mia-Hou	o45	20420	19448	19448	-387044
Eagles	0	4640	2367	2367	-384676
Phi-Jax	o44	6685	6190	-6685	-391361
Redskins	-1	35888	33230	33230	-358131
Was-NYG	O43.5	5941	5166	-5941	-364072
Sea-Det	U48.5	98	92	92	-363980
Seahawks	3	29673	29379	29379	-334602
Panthers	2.5	23876	25547	25547	-309054
Bal-Car	o44	14241	13065	13065	-295989
Chiefs	0	7431	1896	1896	-294094
Bengals	-3.5	3090	3000	-3090	-297184
TB-Cinc	U54.5	10757	11079	-10757	-307940
Jets	0	3416	11000	-3416	-311357
Cle-Pit	o48	3212	3118	3118	-308238
Ind-Oak	o51	98	92	92	-308146
Colts	0	14074	7907	7907	-300240
GB-LAR	o57	5660	6000	-5660	-305900
Rams	-7.5	10721	11471	-10721	-316621
49ers	-2.5	31956	27788	-31956	-348577
SF-Ariz	o41	19968	21366	-19968	-368545
Saints	0	20008	14931	14931	-353614
NO-Min	O53.5	10398	9809	-10398	-364011
NE-Buf	U44.5	6890	6562	6562	-357449
Oak-SF	o44	1961	2000	-1961	-359410
Jets	3	33540	32563	-33540	-392950
NYJ-MIA	u43	10216	10115	10115	-382836
Atl-Was	o47	16378	16706	16706	-366130
Falcons	1.5	3985	3945	3945	-362185
Lions	0	9836	18786	-9836	-372020
Lions	4.5	13233	12484	-13233	-385253
Det-Min	O47.5	9139	8873	-9139	-394393
Chiefs	0	21080	6023	6023	-388370
KC-Cle	O51.5	17645	17998	17998	-370371
Buccaneers	0	5709	14159	-5709	-376081
TB-Car	u55	24161	23458	-24161	-400242
Pit-Bal	o46	4688	4341	-4688	-404930
Bills	10	6566	6194	-6566	-411496
Chi-Buf	O38.5	4971	5070	5070	-406426
Hou-Den	O46.5	24822	22984	-24822	-431248
LAC-Sea	u48	8021	8181	8181	-423067
Chargers	0	5151	5100	5100	-417967
LAR-NO	U56.5	19000	19000	-19000	-436967
Saints	0	27850	33420	33420	-403547
Patriots	-5	15857	15546	15546	-388001
Titans	0	11750	22913	22913	-365089
Ten-Dal	O40.5	21478	22123	22123	-342966
Car-Pit	o51	13768	13367	13367	-329599
Panthers	0	2233	3796	-2233	-331832
Patriots	0	9992	3843	-9992	-341824
NE-Ten	o47	28538	29108	-28538	-370362
Falcons	-5.5	11512	11177	-11512	-381874
Falcons	0	13795	5518	-13795	-395669
Atl-Cle	o50	18980	17255	-18980	-414649
Cardinals	17	7682	6984	6984	-407665
Ariz-KC	O49.5	7615	7466	-7615	-415281
Bills	7	24337	21729	21729	-393551
Buf-NYJ	o38	12145	12025	12025	-381526
Lions	7.5	15275	13399	-15275	-396801
Jaguars	3	25210	24961	0	-396801
Redskins	3.5	35943	34561	34561	-362241
Was-TB	o51	23191	23654	-23191	-385431
Saints	0	13435	5148	5148	-380284
NO-Cin	U53.5	944	874	-944	-381228
Chargers	0	33104	7043	7043	-374184
LAC-Oak	u50	34520	34520	34520	-339664
Dolphins	0	5591	28907	-5591	-345255
Mia-GB	O48.5	35855	35152	-35855	-381110
Seahawks	10	16218	14103	14103	-367008
Cowboys	7	18416	18234	18234	-348774
NYG-SF	O44.5	19313	18393	18393	-330381
Giants	3	31002	32862	32862	-297518
Seahawks	0	1599	1103	1103	-296415
GB-Sea	O48.5	7597	7375	7375	-289040
Bengals	6	27776	25959	25959	-263081
Cin-Bal	o44	3979	3901	3901	-259180
Texans	0	1175	783	783	-258397
Redskins	2.5	7599	8587	8587	-249809
TB-NYG	o52	5364	5207	5207	-244602
Buccaneers	0	6265	6892	-6265	-250867
Falcons	-3	18500	15417	-18500	-269367
Dal-Atl	o48	6464	5876	-6464	-275831
Panthers	0	7940	4157	-7940	-283771
Car-Det	o44	4950	4901	-4950	-288721
Titans	0	9910	11000	-9910	-298631
Steelers	0	3529	1489	1489	-297142
Pit-Jax	o47	12948	12694	-12948	-310090
Broncos	0	4796	14100	14100	-295990
Den-SD	O46.5	21645	20420	-21645	-317636
Raiders	0	13831	28907	28907	-288728
Oak-Ari	O40.5	12512	11375	11375	-277354
Saints	-8	5402	5001	5001	-272352
Saints	0	14238	3737	3737	-268615
Vikings	2.5	9178	8825	-9178	-277794
Min-Chi	o45	13271	13140	0	-277794
KC-LAR	U63.5	15920	14741	-15920	-293714
Bears	0	12085	7369	7369	-286345
Chi-Det	o43	19574	19003	-19574	-305919
Was-Dal	o41	11387	11615	11615	-294303
Redskins	0	17445	49022	-17445	-311749
Atl-NO	u60	14499	14076	14076	-297672
Sea-Car	O46.5	2913	3000	3000	-294672
Patriots	0	53935	9718	9718	-284954
NE-NYJ	U46.5	2199	2074	2074	-282880
Jax-Buf	o37	26721	27522	27522	-255358
Jaguars	0	1931	1254	-1931	-257288
Bills	3	9948	9753	9753	-247535
49ers	0	15461	17161	-15461	-262996
SF-TB	U54.5	10398	9809	9809	-253186
Raiders	13	7346	6678	-7346	-260532
Oak-Bal	o42	3935	3975	3975	-256558
NYG-Phi	u49	7546	7256	7256	-249302
Browns	0	10322	10120	10120	-239182
Cle-Cin	u46	13050	13181	-13050	-252232
Chargers	-14	980	1000	1000	-251232
Chargers	0	5415	682	682	-250550
Ariz-SD	o43	47519	44829	44829	-205721
Dolphins	0	3478	12209	-3478	-209199
Dolphins	9	7173	6521	6521	-202678
Mia-Ind	O51.5	7553	6929	-7553	-210231
Steelers	-3	23214	22321	-23214	-233445
Pit-Den	O47.5	32752	33080	-32752	-266197
Packers	3.5	34038	29093	-34038	-300235
Titans	3.5	31922	29286	-31922	-332157
Ten-Hou	O42.5	9309	8866	8866	-323292
Cowboys	7.5	10439	9157	9157	-314135
NO-Dal	O51.5	7744	7898	-7744	-321878
Lions	10	418	380	-418	-322296
Rams	0	2074	441	441	-321855
LAR-Det	u54	12536	10996	10996	-310859
Panthers	-3.5	10120	10322	-10120	-320979
Car-TB	U52.5	6632	6029	6029	-314950
Cardinals	13.5	8908	7746	7746	-307203
Ariz-GB	o41	35286	34258	-35286	-342489
Bengals	4	24028	22884	-24028	-366517
Den-Cin	O44.5	5959	5842	-5959	-372476
Bal-Atl	o47	32444	31499	-32444	-404920
Falcons	-2.5	28000	24348	-28000	-432920
Bears	0	21534	11334	-21534	-454454
Chi-NYG	O43.5	7392	6844	6844	-447609
Cle-Hou	O47.5	19123	17707	-19123	-466733
Colts	0	13265	6803	-13265	-479998
Ind-Jax	u45	1961	2000	2000	-477998
Bills	3.5	22819	22155	-22819	-500817
Bills	0	15578	26638	-15578	-516395
Jets	10	18413	16589	16589	-499806
NYJ-Ten	O40.5	16976	16168	16168	-483639
Chiefs	0	45309	5439	5439	-478199
KC-Oak	U53	22858	23544	-22858	-501057
Min-NE	O49.5	6120	6120	-6120	-507177
Patriots	-6	5757	5644	5644	-501533
SF-Sea	O45.5	20775	21190	21190	-480343
LAC-Pit	U52.5	25014	24766	-25014	-505357
Steelers	-3	25819	23688	-25819	-531177
Jaguars	5.5	17352	17011	-17352	-548528
Jax-Ten	O37.5	14005	14145	14145	-534383
Saints	0	38749	9053	9053	-525330
NO-TB	u54	16040	14582	14582	-510748
Redskins	3	21199	19098	-21199	-531946
NYG-Was	O40.5	2858	2646	2646	-529300
Falcons	4	18980	17255	-18980	-548280
Atl-GB	O50.5	52986	55635	55635	-492645
Colts	0	7929	13955	13955	-478690
Ind-Hou	O49.5	19939	19358	-19939	-498629
Jets	4	38966	36080	36080	-462549
NYJ-Buf	O37.5	2858	2646	2646	-459903
Panthers	0	6603	6289	-6603	-466506
Car-Cle	O47.5	13159	12776	-13159	-479665
Patriots	0	13931	3423	-13931	-493596
NE-Mia	U48.5	27506	25005	-27506	-521102
Chiefs	-6	44049	40412	-44049	-565151
Bal-KC	O50.5	53485	55090	55090	-510062
Cin-SD	o48	49902	48448	-49902	-559963
Broncos	0	27450	16738	-27450	-587413
Den-SF	o45	1528	1428	-1528	-588941
Steelers	0	22060	4654	-22060	-611001
Pit-Oak	o51	16592	16758	-16592	-627594
Lions	0	53216	38011	38011	-589583
Det-Ariz	o40	48422	44020	-48422	-638005
Eagles	3.5	32138	28192	-32138	-670143
Phi-Dal	O45.5	7960	7960	7960	-662183
Rams	0	21024	14302	-21024	-683207
LAR-Chi	U51.5	8085	7092	7092	-676115
Seahawks	-3	10686	9456	9456	-666658
Min-Sea	O45.5	27130	26087	-27130	-693789
LAR-KC	U54.5	27595	26281	-27595	-721384
Chargers	-3.5	4658	4235	-4658	-726042
Texans	0	12944	4574	4574	-721468
Cle-Den	o47	29399	28543	-29399	-750867
Titans	0	14125	11391	11391	-739476
Ten-NYG	o43	9548	9643	-9548	-749023
Packers	0	11014	22138	-11014	-760037
GB-Chi	u47	6464	5876	5876	-754161
Lions	0	43943	57565	-43943	-798104
Det-Buf	o40	21157	20541	-21157	-819261
TB-Bal	O44.5	11168	10153	-11168	-830429
Falcons	0	12975	3268	3268	-827160
Falcons	-10	6522	7500	7500	-819660
Ari-Atl	O43.5	27718	26398	26398	-793262
Raiders	3	23983	24462	-23983	-817245
Cowboys	3	23983	24462	-23983	-841228
Dal-Ind	O46.5	12843	11570	-12843	-854071
Dolphins	0	1325	4056	-1325	-855396
Mia-Min	o45	31790	28900	28900	-826496
Redskins	7.5	29564	26876	26876	-799620
Was-Jax	O36.5	29845	28976	-29845	-829465
Seahawks	0	36098	18512	-36098	-865563
NE-Pit	o56	5763	5878	-5763	-871326
Patriots	0	6054	4552	-6054	-877380
Steelers	2.5	2440	2440	2440	-874940
Eagles	13.5	25745	24995	24995	-849945
Phi-LAR	o52	37838	34398	34398	-815547
Saints	0	47709	20302	20302	-795245
NO-Car	u51	9950	9045	9045	-786200
Redskins	11	22992	21289	21289	-764911
Was-Ten	O37.5	9950	9045	9045	-755866
Bal-Ten	O42.5	73874	67158	-73874	-829740
Chargers	-3.5	7346	6678	-7346	-837086
Buccaneers	7.5	12485	9988	9988	-827098
TB-Dal	o48	19574	19003	-19574	-846671
Jaguars	3.5	46080	42667	42667	-804005
Jax-Mia	O38.5	17360	17360	-17360	-821365
Panthers	3	8019	6913	-8019	-829384
Atl-Car	O44.5	17796	16949	-17796	-847180
Eagles	-2.5	33600	31111	-33600	-880780
Hou-Phi	U47.5	9558	8032	-9558	-890337
Vikings	0	2711	1039	1039	-889299
Lions	6	3038	3008	-3038	-892336
Giants	10	3728	3358	3358	-888978
NYG-Ind	o48	25545	24329	24329	-864650
Packers	-2.5	31939	26840	26840	-837810
GB-NYJ	u47	12100	11862	-12100	-849909
Patriots	0	16580	2073	2073	-847837
Buf-NE	o44	20492	18629	-20492	-868329
Cin-Cle	o44	15788	14353	0	-868329
Bengals	10	9797	8594	8594	-859735
Cardinals	14.5	3916	3465	-3916	-863651
Rams	0	13802	1779	1779	-861872
Bears	0	12613	5949	5949	-855923
Chi-SF	o44	5729	5562	-5729	-861652
Saints	-6.5	30362	27602	-30362	-892014
Chiefs	0	17943	14588	-17943	-909957
KC-Sea	o55	8379	7905	7905	-902052
Broncos	0	36176	25840	-36176	-938228
Dolphins	0	25833	55282	-25833	-964061
Mia-Buf	O39.5	990	1000	1000	-963061
Car-NO	o42	21162	19594	19594	-943467
Saints	0	3205	968	-3205	-946672
NYJ-NE	o47	24910	26156	-24910	-971583
Patriots	0	15984	2137	2137	-969446
Lions	7.5	24986	22715	22715	-946731
Det-GB	o45	43122	41866	-43122	-989853
Cowboys	0	19760	55524	55524	-934329
Cowboys	7	35060	35060	35060	-899269
Dal-NYG	O38.5	34145	34487	34487	-864782
Jaguars	7	10928	10119	-10928	-875710
Jax-Hou	o40	43634	46252	-43634	-919344
Atl-TB	O51.5	3773	3493	3493	-915851
Falcons	0	18519	13041	13041	-902810
Falcons	-2.5	17054	14959	-17054	-919863
Browns	7	22141	20313	20313	-899550
Cle-Bal	o41	8520	8520	8520	-891030
Bengals	14	15130	14009	14009	-877022
Cin-Pit	o45	23390	21264	-23390	-900412
Bears	6	7346	6678	6678	-893733
Chi-Min	O40.5	30299	32420	-30299	-924032
Eagles	0	34964	14568	14568	-909464
Phi-Was	o42	3052	2725	-3052	-912516
Raiders	14.5	11691	10726	-11691	-924207
Rams	0	12560	2791	2791	-921416
SF-LAR	O49.5	8794	8068	8068	-913348
Broncos	7	12279	10771	-12279	-925627
Seahawks	0	30617	4300	4300	-921327
Ari-Sea	O39.5	32228	30693	30693	-890633
Titans	4.5	2913	3000	-2913	-893546
Ind-Hou	o48	6464	5876	-6464	-900010
Colts	0	1851	1962	1962	-898048
Sea-Dal	o43	27282	25030	25030	-873018
Seahawks	2.5	11387	11615	11615	-861403
Chargers	3	8908	7746	7746	-853657
Phi-Chi	O41.5	24766	23587	-24766	-878423
Chiefs	0	7872	3644	3644	-874778
Cowboys	7.5	20070	16865	-20070	-894848
Dal-LAR	O48.5	30130	29252	29252	-865596
LAC-NE	o47	7274	6325	6325	-859271
Phi-NO	o51	8085	7092	-8085	-867355
Saints	-3	34562	31420	-34562	-901917
Chiefs	-3	13631	11455	-13631	-915548
NE-KC	o56	9492	9398	9398	-906150
Patriots	0	11652	9247	9247	-896903
Rams	2.5	3077	2930	-3077	-899980
NE-LAR	o56	1961	2000	-1961	-901941

Team Totals with Bill Barnwell

Bill likes five overs:

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/27296131/barnwell-picking-five-nfl-teams-most-likely-improve-2019

And five unders:

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/27299239/predicting-nfl-teams-likeliest-decline-barnwell-picks-five-2019

Best of luck to Bill!

Team	Line	Risked	To Win	Result
Carolina Panthers	o8	1.11	1	0
Dallas Cowboys	u9	1.2	1	0
Los Angeles Chargers	U10.5	1.37	1	0
Los Angeles Rams	U10.5	1.46	1	0
Miami Dolphins	U4.5	1	1.05	0
New Orleans Saints	u10	1.11	1	0
New York Giants	o6	1	1.38	0
New York Jets	O7.5	1	1.04	0
San Francisco 49ers	O8.5	1	1.05	0
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	O6.5	1	1	0

 

 

 

2019 NFL Market Pythags

Some quick notes:

1. The NFC East is viewed as a two-team race.
2. The NFC North has three roughly equal teams, and the Detroit Lions.
3. New Orleans is viewed as the best team in the NFC, with the Rams and Eagles following.
4. New England is viewed as the best team in the NFL. The rest of their division is garbage, and they get their chief AFC rival at home, so they should have a clear path to the #1 seed.
5. The AFC North is a dogfight.
6. The market views the Colts as the clear best team in the AFC South. That’s a lot of faith in Andrew Luck’s health. Also, Houston are viewed as frauds.
7. Either the Chargers or the Chiefs will be a wildcard team (or worse). Brutal.

 

Dallas	0.5470
NYG	0.3516
Philadelphia	0.5812
Washington	0.3858
Chicago	0.5769
Detroit	0.4172
Green Bay	0.5659
Minnesota	0.5633
Atlanta	0.5280
Carolina	0.4936
New Orleans	0.6346
Tampa Bay	0.4039
Arizona	0.3192
LAR	0.6157
San Francisco	0.4948
Seattle	0.5470
Buffalo	0.4085
Miami	0.3066
New England	0.6591
NYJ	0.4248
Baltimore	0.5116
Cincinnati	0.3673
Cleveland	0.5420
Pittsburgh	0.5591
Houston	0.5294
Indianapolis	0.5919
Jacksonville	0.4810
Tennessee	0.4992
Denver	0.4471
Kansas City	0.6431
LAC	0.6106
Oakland	0.3953