Rank	Name	Position	School	Rating
38	Payton Wilson	LB	N.C. State	74.62
45	Junior Colson	LB	Michigan	73.50
55	Cedric Gray	LB	North Carolina	71.16
65	Edgerrin Cooper	LB	Texas A&M	68.44
89	Jeremiah Trotter Jr.	LB	Clemson	64.46
101	Trevin Wallace	LB	Kentucky	63.08

Off ball linebackers don’t get the glory. This isn’t a bad group, particularly given how late they’re expected to be available.

Payton Wilson, N.C. State: Awesome combine. 10.5 sacks and 40 tackles for loss over the past two seasons. He’s not an edge-rusher, but he has some basic pass-rush tools in his bag.

He’s well equipped to handle zone responsibilities as his range and speed will threaten quarterbacks who challenge him. He’ll need more practice to learn proper man coverage skills. The athletic gifts are there.

Wilson has the film of a first-round pick. His speed allows him to attack running or short passing plays before they can get going. His backside pursuit is top notch. But… there are some issues.

The first is he turned 24 in April. Age matters. The second, and this might knock him down quite a bit, is his injury history. He’s had bad shoulders for years. I have shoulder issues and let me tell you, tackling people would not help them.

He also lacks power. He’s close to a safety-linebacker hybrid, and he gets blocked the same way a safety would get blocked. He needs to weave through traffic to get to the spot.

There’s no way he gets a 100% clean bill of health. It’s going to be a matter of just how bad it is. He also has a knee injury from high school that will be on the NFL’s radar. The thing is, you just can’t find guys with his level of size, speed, and talent. He’s a first-round talent who will probably be available day two. If his medicals come back relatively safe, then I’d take him very early day two. If not, he could be free falling.

Junior Colson, Michigan: I’m going to have to do this review a little differently. First off, Colson did test at the combine or on his pro day. Second, he played through a hand injury and wore a club this season. Presumably, he’ll be able to do a few more things on the field when he has both hands available.

What I can say is his coverage skills are remarkable. He moves fluidly around the field. It’s not just great athleticism. He’s got wonderful balance and change of direction skills. He’ll be able to cover “mismatches” inside and out of the slot.

Wearing a club made it somewhat tricky to disengage from blocks. I’m going to cut him some slack here and presume he’ll be able to do at least a decent job in run support.

In terms of pass-rush, Colson is still a work in progress. I anticipate that his coverage skills will make this less of a priority, but it’s still an area where he’ll want to improve so that opponents have to account for him near the line of scrimmage.

Even though he wasn’t 100%, Colson looked very good on film. I’m giving him a solid second-round value and would be comfortable taking him outside of the top 40.

Cedric Gray, North Carolina: Five sacks, 15 tackles for loss last season. He had five interceptions over his final three seasons. Gray was an impact player for North Carolina.

His combine was a mixed bag. Nice speed, which is reflective of his range. Not quite the agility some teams would like from a player who will be forced to make quick changes of direction to weave through traffic.

On film Gray played fast. He made quick decisions, usually making the right call. His coverage skills look like they should be excellent in a few years. He’s improved his blitzing skills. I don’t like his chances of shedding NFL blocking, but he has enough speed and vision to sneak through the line and charge into the backfield.

Gray’s range shows up against the running game. East-West running plays will find Gray is a constant challenge. Gray’s biggest weakness is that he doesn’t quite have the power you would like. Often he’ll be the first guy there, and slow the ballcarrier down. His teammates will finish the job.

I like Gray quite a bit. I see him as a late second-round value.

Edgerrin Cooper, Texas A&M: Undersized and fast. Eight sacks and 23 tackles for loss. Cooper is a dangerous weapon on a blitz.

His coverage skills are a work in progress. He has the speed to stick with his man, but will need more experience here. For now, simple zone responsibilities are probably the best bet.

Cooper’s range is exceptional. He can fly around the field and make plays before the blockers are ready to square up. Cooper plays an aggressive brand of ball, bringing as much power as his frame allows. There are times when his aggression bites him and he misses the target. That’s something for his coaching staff to calibrate.

Premier athletes demand premium picks. I see Cooper as worthy of a mid-day two pick. He’ll probably be gone by then.

Jeremiah Trotter Jr., Clemson: Four interceptions, 12 sacks, and 35 tackles for loss over his past two seasons at Clemson. That’s some serious production. And yet… I did not love his film. There were too many plays where either a lack of athleticism or a lack of play recognition left him out of position.

Trotter had an odd combine. If you’re going to skip drills, perhaps shine in the ones you do? Also, passing on the 40 is a bold decision.

I will say this: Trotter blitzed quite well. He understood how to avoid getting engulfed by blockers and had the skill to wrangle quarterbacks before they could escape.

I suppose my main issue is that I like my off-ball linebackers to have great range, and I don’t think Trotter does, at least by NFL standards. As such, I see him as a day three value pickup.

Trevin Wallace, Kentucky: Pretty nice work at the combine. Has developed decent blitz skills (5.5 sacks, 10 tackles for loss last season). Three interceptions over the past two years.

Wallace has the traits needed to succeed in the NFL. It’s less clear that he’s ready to do so. Wallace just turned 21 in February. Football is a very complicated game. Wallace is still learning a lot of the finer points.

In coverage, it’s easy to fool him with basic double-moves. On running plays he can be slow to diagnose his responsibility and where he needs to be. His athletic speed is currently ahead of his processing speed.

Wallace is a project. His athletic gifts border on “freak” status. With professional coaching, he could be an All-Pro in a few years. That’s his upside. Right now, he’s a liability in coverage. I see a round three value who might end up being limited to backup/special teams. We’ll see.

Rank	Name	Position	School	Rating
33	Tyler Nubin	S	Minnesota	75.74
53	Javon Bullard	S	Georgia	71.55
54	Kamren Kinchens	S	Miami	71.48
63	Calen Bullock	S	USC	68.88
67	Cole Bishop	S	Utah	68.39
70	Jaden Hicks	S	Washington State	68.25
108	Tykee Smith	S	Georgia	61.36
120	Jaylin Simpson	S	Auburn	58.96

There’s talk of no running backs, linebackers, or safeties earning a first-round pick this year. Running backs have no hope. Linebackers are unlikely. Tyler Nubin appeared in some mocks, but…

Tyler Nubin: This is not the combine of a first-round pick. It’s a shame. Nubin can play (nine interceptions in his past two seasons.)

His man coverage skills are limited by his athleticism. When allowed to work in space, his recognition skills turn him into a monster. If you throw into his zone, you best not miss.

While I think Nubin will be best served as a deep safety, his approach against the run is textbook. He’ll consistently get to the spot and apply as much force as he can, without trading big hits for broken tackles. His only real weakness here is that he doesn’t have sideline-to-sideline speed, so sometimes he’ll be forced into bad angles.

Nubin earned the trust of the Minnesota coaching staff. I expect the same at the NFL-level. He can play. Safeties have been devalued. GM’s want elite measurables. Nubin knows ball. Solid early second-round value.

Javon Bullard, Georgia: Pretty nice speed, even by cornerback standards. Georgia used him quite differently in 2022 than they did in 2023. In 2022 Bullard played mostly in the slot, giving him easy access to blitz lanes. Last season, he worked as a free safety. In both cases, he did a fine job.

The versatility Bullard displayed at Georgia will serve him well in the pros. Bullard has shown he can match up to running backs, tight ends, and slot receivers. He’s also shown he can play a mean centerfield. His off-man coverage still needs a bit of work as currently he’d be outclassed by NFL-level outside receivers.

Bullard has the tracking skills teams will look for in run support, if not the raw tackling power. Bullard simply lacked the strength to bring down larger ballcarriers via form tackling. He often tried to go low, with mixed results.

The more I think about Bullard, the more I feel he’s a tweener. He doesn’t quite have the power teams are looking for in a box safety, and he doesn’t have the coverage skills they want in a free safety. What he does have is great athleticism and a solid resume at Georgia. Second-round value.

Kamren Kinchens, Miami: Welp! Kitchens had 11 interceptions over the past two seasons, and was in position for a few more. But… he just not fast enough.

His coverage numbers were awful (0.85 EPA-per-target). His lack of speed led to big plays in the running game. Yes, there were nice plays too. His play recognition was good. But he’s not an NFL-level athlete. That makes him a weak link.

I am not touching Kinchens until day three.

Calen Bullock, USC: Long, tall, and fast. Nine interceptions in his three-year collegiate career at USC. Solid coverage numbers. On paper, Bullock looks like a prototype NFL free safety.

Problem #1 is run support. He has every flaw you could look for. Poor vision., Slow recognition. Lack of interest. Poor tackling technique. Lack of power. Bullock would take terrible angles, with seems hard to believe given his speed. He’s the least reliable last line of defense you could imagine.

Problem #2 is spatial awareness. Bullock trusted his speed to a fault. It’s fine if he plays deep, but he has to stop drifting backward.

Bullock offers potentially elite coverage skills and range. In a few years he could be a premium free safety. You just have to accept his limitations. Round three value.

Cole Bishop, Utah: First-round size and athleticism. Undrafted free-agent arms.

In Bishop’s case, the film that wasn’t there may have told the tale. Opposing quarterbacks were clearly afraid of challenging him. He had two interceptions last year, and likely would have had more if they weren’t inclined to look elsewhere.

Bishop has shown he can attack the line of scrimmage, play man coverage, or sit back in a deep zone. Perhaps he was a bit too interested in making big plays or big hits. The flip side of that is receivers started to hear footsteps. Quarterbacks too.

I want to say he needs to improve his tackling technique, but the reality might be that shorter arms force Bishop to grab on as best he can. His results were fine, so I’ll move on

I see Bishop as an early round three value. He should be able to contribute for whomever drafts him.

Jaden Hicks, Washington State: For teams concerned about Hicks’ agility, his combine raised more questions than answers. I’d prefer to focus on his nice mix of size and speed.

Hicks is a gambler in coverage. Back in 2022, that was a disaster as his play recognition skills left him a step behind. Last year he bounced back, with two interceptions and solid numbers overall.

Hicks plays very fast. That’s a great thing so long as you aren’t taking yourself out of the play. It’s only worth it to make good time if you’re getting to your destination. I liked watching him attack the line of scrimmage in the running game. He earned his teammates trust by being willing to take on, and defeat, blockers en route to the ballcarrier.

Hicks can play in the box, midrange, or as the deep safety. I ended up liking his film quite a bit. He’s young and clearly still getting better. I’d be comfortable taking Hicks around the middle of day two.

Tykee Smith, Georgia: Smith is fast. He had four interceptions last season. Over the past two seasons he’s allowed -0.57 EPA-per-target. But…

Georgia asked Smith to do so little. I mean, sure, they moved him around a bit. On any given play, his responsibilities were limited. They didn’t ask him to cover in a large area. He generally had support. He was capable of doing his job, but will he be able to take on tougher challenges along with a step up in competition?

Despite his speed, I didn’t see Smith show the kind of range I’d like. The more I watched him, the more I felt he was just a cog in the machine. Nice numbers aside, he’s a day three depth pickup.

Jaylin Simpson, Auburn: Four interceptions last season, but is the NFL really interested in a sub-180 free safety? Or is Simpson going to have to look for work at cornerback?

Simpson impressed with with his effort against the run. His power is limited by his frame. His heart was in it though. Does he have NFL-level run stopping power for a safety? Absolutely not.

Simpson doesn’t currently possess the man coverage skills to start at cornerback in the NFL. He can play as part of a zone package while he develops.

Simpson is a tweener. That’s another way of saying right now he isn’t quite good enough to handle any of the starting jobs. There’s upside though. You can’t find his mix of height, length, and speed too often. I’d be fine taking him in the fourth round if he can fit in your scheme.

2024 NFL Draft: Cornerbacks

April 22, 2024

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Tier 1:

Rank	Name	Position	School	Rating
14	Terrion Arnold	CB	Alabama	83.05
15	Quinyon Mitchell	CB	Toledo	82.88
17	Kool-Aid McKinstry	CB	Alabama	82.11
19	Nate Wiggins	CB	Clemson	81.16
28	Cooper DeJean	CB	Iowa	78.21
32	Ennis Rakestraw Jr.	CB	Missouri	76.04
34	Kamari Lassiter	CB	Georgia	75.66
50	T.J. Tampa	CB	Iowa State	72.01

I wasn’t prepared by the drop off from the top five to the next three. At first I thought this was a pretty deep class of elite cornerbacks, but upon reflection, if you want a #1 or #2 cornerback, you’ll need to use a first-round pick.

With two of my top three quarterbacks coming from Alabama, I am reminded of an old warning: Be careful when drafting Alabama cornerbacks. They might already be as good as they’re ever going to get.

That’s a credit to the Alabama coaching staff, but take heed.

Terrion Arnold, Alabama: Ignore everything I just wrote. Arnold isn’t polished to a fine shine. He’s raw. He only appeared in 25 games, starting 21 of them. Elite ballhawk with five interceptions last season.

Arnold’s combine was decent, but given his size it was nothing special. The film says his football speed, particularly when changing directions, is elite.

Arnold has shown he can play outside, or in the slot. Surprisingly good power in run support. His tackling was top-notch, even if the technique can be improved a bit.

The main concern for Arnold is his (perhaps rightfully) didn’t trust his speed. He gave wide receivers a large cushion. He probably won’t get away with that in the NFL. He might end up being a slot cornerback. Truth be told, if he can do a good job in the slot, he’s worth a high first-round pick.

The film says Arnold can cover at an elite level. He can handle man or zone responsibilities. He’ll get beat, sure, but he’ll also put the fear of interceptions in the hearts of quarterbacks. He’s my #4CB in the class and a top 20 value.

(Editor’s note: Arnold only has one year of elite production, with a -0.35 EPA-per-target in 2023.)

Quinyon Mitchell, Toledo: Zoom-zoom! If you want a cornerback who can cover the fastest wide receivers in the NFL, Mitchell is your man. Absolutely dominant at Toledo. Allowed 45 completions in 128 targets over the past two seasons. He was more likely to tip it away than have it be completed. He picked up six interceptions in that time. Quarterbacks learned not to aggressively challenge him.

Mitchell played pretty much strictly on the outside. Perhaps the biggest area where he can improve is tackling/run support. He has the speed and power to function as a free safety, but his heart wasn’t in it. He much preferred to focus on coverage. This is an area where his coaching staffs will need to find a way to motivate him.

We saw the same traits on special teams. Mitchell could have been an elite gunner, but instead he played passively. Football is a physical game, and perhaps Mitchell would prefer not to make it more physical than he needs to.

Regardless, his coverage skills and raw athleticism make him my top cornerback in the class. In a few years he should be able to cover the best wide receivers in the NFL. Sure, some of the larger receivers might muscle him, but they won’t separate from Mitchell. I see a clear top-15 value.

(Editor’s note: Mitchell was truly dominant at Toledo, allowing -0.58 EPA-per-target in 2022, and -0.50 in 2023.)

Kool-Aid McKinstry, Alabama: Perhaps Kool-Aid isn’t the most athletic cornerback you’ll see. What he has are a set of coverage skills. Skills polished over years at Alabama. He surrendered nine completions last season. Nine! Opponents gave up challenging him. He only allowed 43 completions in his 38 games at Alabama.

I can understand why Kool-Aid is considered the safest bet in the class. His change of direction skills are elite. The combine is one thing. Years of film say Kool-Aid plays fast and knows how to stick to his man.

Kool-Aid wasn’t a ballhawk at Alabama, but he clearly has the skills to be one if that’s what his coaches ask of him. He’s also very good in run support. It was hilarious watching him blow up screens. Don’t tempt him with a good time.

Arnold had more interceptions. Mitchell is faster. Kool-Aid is my surest bet to succeed in the NFL. Another top 20 value and my #2CB in the class.

(Editor’s note: Sample size issues aside, Arnold allowed -0.42 EPA-per-target in 2022, -0.34 in 2023.)

Nate Wiggins, Clemson: 6’1, 173, 4.28.I’d put that on my business card if I had those numbers. Wiggins can fly. His range in zone makes life easier for his teammates. Wiggins can play in the slot, or outside. His man coverage skills are phenomenal.

On pure talent Wiggins is arguably CB1. There are two issues that bother me though. The first is physicality. It’s not just that bigger receivers can bully him. It’s that Wiggins wasn’t particularly physical with the smaller receivers either. Wiggins has no interest in making a violent game any more physical than it has to be.

That leads me to my second issue: run support. It’s not even bad. It’s N/A. Wiggins would sooner look for a blocker to take himself out of the play than square up and take a hit. His coaching staff is going to have to live with that because you can’t change who a person is. Wiggins is a finesse player and always will be.

One additional plus to his game. He could develop into an elite blitzer. He has a sack and a blocked kick in his collegiate career. His burst off the line and closing speed are things you cannot teach.

Wiggins has the potential to be the best cornerback in this class. I would personally look for a more complete player. CB3 and our third top-20 value of the class.

(Editor’s note: Wiggins followed up a strong 2022 season of -0.41 EPA with a solid 2023 performance of -0.37 EPA).

Cooper DeJean, Iowa: This is an impressive combine, especially for a player 200+ pounds. Had five interceptions in 2022. Another two last season. Allowed -0.45 EPA-per-target over that time. Had a punt return touchdown in 2023. His season ended with a broken fibula, but he should be 100% to start week one.

DeJean has played safety as well and might serve as a hybrid in the NFL. His coverage skills lean more towards zone than man. He has NFL speed, but perhaps lacks the kind of agility that will allow him to stick with shifty receivers. In zone he can use his speed and his eyes to get to the spot before the ball or the receiver.

DeJean has the size to be a plus in run support, but perhaps not the instincts or desire. His coaching staff will work on that with him. If DeJean is going to be a zone cornerback he’ll need to be comfortable attacking the line of scrimmage when called upon.

I don’t think DeJean has the man coverage skills of any of the players listed above him here. He’ll have to go to a team whose scheme maximizes his strengths. If that happens, I see a top-25 value. He should be able to have a productive NFL career given his additional special teams value.

Ennis Rakestraw Jr., Missouri: Allowed 0.40 EPA-per-target last season. Not good. His combine? Not good. One interception in four seasons. Not good.

What is good is Rakestraw’s cover skills. He has flashed tight man coverage against tough competition. He can play in the slot or outside, in man or zone.

I have a few concerns. The first is his size. He lost 50-50 balls to larger receivers. The second is his athleticism. It’s tough to be a man corner in the NFL if the receivers are faster than you. The third is that I can’t ignore his results in college. Playing against tough competition isn’t the same as beating it.

If Rakestraw were dominant against the run, I might cut him some slack. He was… not. I see Rakestaw as a day three depth pickup. He’ll be long gone by then.

Kamari Lassiter, Georgia: First, some bad news. Lassiter lacks premium speed. He only had one interception in his collegiate career, and that came back in 2021. His size limits his power in press coverage and against the running game.

Now, the good news: Lassiter can cover his man (-0.54 EPA-per-target last season). If he isn’t physically overmatched, either by size or by speed, Lassiter has the skills to stick with his man. His agility was obvious on film. Would I trust him in zone? Yes, if proper help was available.

Lassiter is a tricky case. I don’t see him with the upside of a #1 or #2 cornerback. What he can do is be an excellent #3CB. Teams need those too. I’d feel fine picking up Lassiter around the middle of round two.

T.J. Tampa, Iowa State: Good size, agility and length. If you want speed, you’ll need to look elsewhere.

Three interceptions against 29 completions over the past two seasons. Tampa looks like he can handle press coverage responsibilities and zone coverage responsibilities. He probably can’t handle NFL speed in off man, at least not against #1 or #2 receivers.

Tampa does a decent job in run support. It’s a nice mix of size and effort.

Overall Tampa wasn’t quite the prospect I was hoping he would be. I’d probably be looking to pick him up around the middle of day two.

Tier 2:

Rank	Name	Position	School	Rating
75	Mike Sainristil	CB	Michigan	67.02
81	DJ James	CB	Auburn	66.07
84	Khyree Jackson	CB	Oregon	65.48
96	Caelen Carson	CB	Wake Forest	63.52
97	Cam Hart	CB	Notre Dame	63.45
100	Josh Newton	CB	TCU	63.30
104	Max Melton	CB	Rutgers	62.34
105	Kris Abrams-Draine	CB	Missouri	62.32
113	Renardo Green	CB	Florida State	60.27
115	Andru Phillips	CB	Kentucky	59.80
117	Jarvis Brownlee Jr.	CB	Louisville	59.59
125	Elijah Jones	CB	Boston College	57.95
126	MJ Devonshire	CB	Pittsburgh	57.65
127	Nehemiah Pritchett	CB	Auburn	57.26

One gem here (Max Melton). After that, you take your chances.

Mike Sainristil, Michigan: Smallish, but highly athletic. Sainristil is a converted wide receiver who is still learning the job. His coverage numbers were only mediocre (-0.06 EPA-per-target), but he had six interceptions, returning two for touchdowns.

Sainristil showed decent blitz skills, with one sack and four tackles for loss. He played mostly out of the slot, which is where he’ll probably play in the NFL.

His film showed a player with potentially elite talent. His inexperience showed too, but when he didn’t make a mistake, his coverage was tight. I expect he’ll continue to get better and should be a reliable starter in 2-3 years. If he were 21 or 22 I’d say he’s a solid value outside of the top 40. He’ll turn 24 in October. I’d be a little more cautious.

DJ James, Auburn: Better to not run the agility drills and be thought to be stiff than to run them and remove all doubt.

James has good straight-line speed, but at 175 pounds, it won’t be much use attacking the line of scrimmage. James can handle off-man coverage and zone coverage. He showed good play recognition skills, and had decent numbers for Auburn (3 interceptions the past two seasons, -0.18 EPA-per-target).

I see James as a low upside reliable nickel cornerback. That makes him a late day-two value.

Khyree Jackson, Oregon: I don’t normally give complete backstories, but I’ll make an exception for Jackson.

In 2017 he signed at Arizona Western College (go Matadors!) but decided to bounce before the season started. Andale the Bull did not take it well. Jackson didn’t play football in 2018. In 2019 he had three interceptions for Fort Scott Community College. One year of being a Gaming Greyhound was enough. Jackson transferred to East Mississippi Community College. He sat out 2020 due to Covid concerns.

Alabama was impressed and invited him to join the team. He barely saw the field in 2021 and 2022, and when he did play, he mostly got his ass kicked. He transferred to Oregon. Last season he had 3 interceptions for the Ducks (-0.41 EPA-per-target).

Jackson will turn 25 in August. He allowed 10 completions in 33 targets. He has the size and length teams covet. Jackson has a ton of upside potential, but only a limited amount of time to take advantage of it. In a few years he might be dominant in press coverage, with elite run support.

Jackson looks the part. One weakness is that he did not flash great agility on film. I can understand why he skipped that drill.

On balance, I think I’ll stick with a third-round grade. If this pick hits, he could be a first-round value. If not, use Jackson on special teams, and try again next year.

Caelen Carson, Wake Forest: Carson was used as Wake Forest’s #1CB, often shadowing the opponent’s #1WR. His coverage numbers suffered (0.11 EPA-per-target). He failed to snag an interception in 2023 or 2022.

Part of the issue is Carson felt he had to play quite conservatively. I don’t know if this was a personal preference, or a mandate from the coaching staff. Carson generally played soft coverage, surrendering short completions.

Given his size, he had a decent combine. Carson can be an asset in run support, and can match up with larger receivers, either outside, or in the slot.

Carson has a number of minor injury red flags. He’s had difficulty playing a full season. When healthy, Carson looks like he’ll be a competent nickel or dime cornerback. You could even use him as a safety-CB hybrid. I give him a late round-three grade.

Cam Hart, Notre Dame: This is what NFL teams are looking for. 6’3, 202 means Hart can line up against the larger receivers that might be a mismatch for smaller cornerbacks.

Hart allowed on 121 yards on 126 targets last season (-0.68 EPA-per-target). Those numbers include a start against Marvin Harrison Jr.. Hart balled out that day.

One concern is that the film showed Hart lacks aggressive instincts. He preferred to lean on solid coverage skills, rather than going for the big play. No interceptions in 2022 or 2023.

Two other small issues. He has a medical red flag due to multiple shoulder surgeries. He’ll turn 24 in December. I’ll also note that Hall, despite good athleticism overall, doesn’t really have the quickness or agility to stay with the most elusive wide receivers. He also doesn’t have the catch-up speed to track down the burners.

You can’t coach height or length, so Hart is a solid pickup in the back half of round three.

Josh Newton, TCU: Newton will turn 24 in December. He had a rough combine. The good news is that he had four interceptions over his two years at TCU (-0.26 EPA-per-target).

Newton started his career at Louisiana Monroe. He did a fine job there, which is why TCU was interested in him. He’s appeared in 59 games over his collegiate career, starting the large majority of them. My point is that Newton is experienced. Yes, there’s room for improvement, but for the most part we have a pretty good sense of what he’s capable of.

Unfortunately, it appears Newton is capable of providing roster depth. He just doesn’t look like an NFL starter on film. He Just A Guy, and Just A Guy gets beat by The Man. But NFL rosters can’t find 53 The Men, so Newton should come off the board the first half of day five. That’s where I would take him if I needed cornerback depth.

Max Melton, Rutgers: Well, hello there Mr. Melton. Sub-4.4 speed is a nice surprise. Melton was a ballhawk at Rutgers, with eight interceptions over the past three seasons.

His overall coverage skills were solid (-0.27 EPA-per-target over his last 24 games). I adored his film. Absolutely loved it. He did so many small things that are hard to teach. He reacted to subtle clues from the receivers, putting himself in a position to make the play. He showed NFL-level speed and agility.

Sure, he made plenty of mistakes too. He was up against elite Big 10 receivers. But much of what I saw was correctable. He’ll be much better with a couple of years of experience under his belt

Melton is capable in run support. He can be a plus defender in either zone or man coverage. I see him as a future #2CB and a second-round value.

Kris Abrams-Draine, Missouri: KAD wasn’t bad last season, producing four interceptions for Missouri. But his combine was eye-opening.

What’s interesting is he looked fairly fluid on film. In fact, if I would have guessed his mean weakness, it would have been straight-line speed. KAD gave fairly soft cushions because he didn’t trust his catch-up speed if beaten deep.

KAD is a converted wide receiver, with only three years of cornerback experience. On one hand, I’m concerned about his ability to stick with more physical receivers. On the other, I trust his ballhawk skills. KAD impressed with his vision and his hands.

I wish he had the size to play free-safety, but that’s not realistic. He can be a solid #3CB in off-man coverage or zone. I like KAD as a round-three pickup.

Andru Phillips, Kentucky: Only made 16 collegiate starts. 0 interceptions in that that time. Got torched for 0.40 EPA-per-target last season. Great hops do not an NFL cornerback make.

(Editor’s note: Phillips won the South Carolina state championships in the triple jump. He was ranked #1 nationally.)

I confess, I liked Phillips a lot more against the run than in coverage. He was aggressive, with good instincts. He wasn’t afraid of taking on larger ballcarriers head on.

In coverage, opponents took advantage of his inexperience. They also took advantage of his size, muscling him away from 50-50 balls.

I know Phillips has some interesting upside potential, but the gap between his performance and what he needs to be capable of in the NFL is just too large. Day three depth pickup.

Jarvis Brownlee Jr., Louisville: Had three interceptions over the past two seasons, but at what cost? Brownlee gave up 0.26 EPA-per-target over that time. A poor Pro Day doesn’t inspire confidence.

(Editor’s note: Brownlee was playing through an ankle injury last season)

I’ll acknowledge his film had some bright spots. He made good decisions in zone coverage. He played a physical brand of ball, particularly against the run. He had a good recognition of what his job was and he did it to the best of his ability.

My concern is whether or not he has the athleticism and talent to hold down a job in the NFL. The player I watched was a day three depth addition. Could he blossom into an NFL starter? Sure, but I wouldn’t bet on it until day three.

Elijah Jones, Boston College: Jones is coming off of a dominant season at Boston College (five interceptions, -0.68 EPA-per-target). NFL-level size, length, and speed. So why is he probably going to be available on day three?

Well, for one thing, he turned 24 in January. He missed the final five games of the season for personal reasons. His style of play makes him a potential flag magnet. Jones has poor run support skills.

Still, he can play press coverage and stick with his man. He’s a threat to punish the quarterback in zone coverage. There’s upside here. Yeah, he’s still a day three pickup, but round four. He shouldn’t have to wait that long to hear his name called.

MJ Devonshire, Pittsburgh: Good speed. Long arms. Seven interceptions over the past two seasons. There’s a fair amount of skepticism Devonshire will be able to hold down a job in the NFL. I get it. He’ll turn 24 in September. He’s not a great tackler. He’ll need to put on more muscle to be able to hold off physical receivers.

What I saw when I watched Devonshire is a dude capable of making plays. He returned a punt for a touchdown back in 2022. He’ll be able to provide special teams value while he learns how to cover NFL receivers. I have faith that he’ll do good work for the team that selects him. Late round-four value.

Nehemiah Pritchett, Auburn: Elite mix of size and speed. Did not provide elite coverage at Auburn. He was okay. Not bad. Nothing special. But he has NFL-level traits, so perhaps he can take the next step.

Pritchett was awesome in 2020 (-0.59 EPA-per-target), but hasn’t come close to that level of play since. I’m not entirely sure why.

The player I watched was a day three depth pickup. He didn’t impress. But… you can’t find many athletes with his potential. And the fact that he has shown he can play at an elite level means that perhaps he’ll be able to handle the step up in competition. If he can hold his own in the NFL, he’s worth a day two pick. As is, I’d gamble on his upside in round four.

2024 NFL Draft: Edge Rushers

April 22, 2024

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Rank	Name	Position	School	Rating
8	Dallas Turner	EDGE	Alabama	86.29
10	Jared Verse	EDGE	Florida State	85.75
13	Laiatu Latu	EDGE	UCLA	83.63
16	Chop Robinson	EDGE	Penn State	82.51
31	Darius Robinson	DE	Missouri	76.47
37	Chris Braswell	EDGE	Alabama	74.80
57	Bralen Trice	EDGE	Washington	70.07
62	Adisa Isaac	EDGE	Penn State	69.10
73	Austin Booker	EDGE	Kansas	67.39
76	Brandon Dorlus	DE	Oregon	66.65
82	Jonah Elliss	EDGE	Utah	66.00
87	Marshawn Kneeland	EDGE	Western Michigan	64.76
110	Gabriel Murphy	EDGE	UCLA	60.85

There are four potentially premium edge rushers in this draft. After that, we hope for the best.

(Editor’s note: SackSEER is a projection system designed by Aaron Schatz. It projects the number of sacks a player will average over their first five seasons.)

Dallas Turner, Alabama: 10 sacks, 18 tackles for loss last season. Top SackSEER projection in the draft (26.3 sacks). A premium athlete with long arms. Just turned 21 in February. If we’re going by the numbers, Turner is a solid option for the first defensive player off the board.

The film suggests Turner doesn’t have a ton of play strength, but makes up for it with explosion and speed. After a few years of NFL seasoning Turner should have an elite set of pass-rush moves. I loved his conditioning as he was still able to play at top speed late in the game.

In the running game Turner has been coached to be somewhat conservative. Solid form tackling, but not much in the way of trying to punch the ball out. I am curious is his future employers will be happy with a low missed tackle rate, or if they’re going to want more fumbles forced.

As edges go, Turner looks to have a high floor and a high ceiling. He would be my first defensive player off the board, which is what I expect to happen.

Jared Verse, Florida State: Verse had 18 sacks and 35 tackles for loss over the past two seasons at Florida State. Solid athletic profile. SackSEER projects him to have 24.4 sacks over his first five seasons.

I expected to be impressed with his film. That turned out not to be the case. I saw four issues that gave me pause.

1. Poor tackling technique. Verse is fairly strong, so with proper technique he would be very tough to get away from. That turned out not to be the case and is something his coaching staff will need to work on with him.

2. Verse took plays off. If there are such things as “high motor” players, Verse is a “low motor” player.

3. Poor stamina. Verse wore down late in games, particularly against stronger competition. That’s not a good trait when you are about to step up in weight class.

4. For as good as his instincts were when attacking the line of scrimmage, Verse looked lost in other phases of the game. Right now he’d be a liability in coverage.

Of course, there are good things too. Verse has a nice mix of power and technique when rushing the passer. He was able to consistently create pressure via a bull rush. He had the speed to turn the corner, and the skill to beat the tackle inside. By college standards he was an elite pass-rusher.

I’m a little concerned that his 33.5-inch arms will put him at a disadvantage against elite NFL tackles. For now Verse has to be considered a pass-rush specialist. I’m not sold he has the upside at his current skill level. Also, Verse will turn 24 in November. I think I’d want to look elsewhere in the first round.

Laiatu Latu, UCLA: Followed up a very good 2022 season (10.5 sacks, 14 tackles for loss) with a great one (12 sacks, 26 tackles for loss in twelve games). Latu is a quality athlete. Solid SackSEER projection (23.4 sacks).

Latu’s film was a joy to watch. So many pass-rush moves. The dude has a bag of tricks. And the effort was there, play after play. If I wanted to quibble, it would have been nice if Latu had a bit more power to hold his ground. The truth is, none of the elite edge prospects in this draft are the next Reggie White. Latu’s #1 job will be to attack the line of scrimmage and disrupt the offense. He’s good at that job.

Three concerns of note, two of which are major:

1. Some teams might remove him from their draft board due to a medical red flag. Latu suffered a neck injury in 2019. Latu transferred from Washington to UCLA because Washington’s medical staff would not clear him to play again.

2. Sub 33-inch arms will force Latu to live off of his counter-moves. It will be hard for him to win on first contact. Teams that have arm length minimums will not be interested in Latu.

3. Latu will turn 24 in December. Pass-rush dominance against younger players might not impress some evaluators.

I cannot speak to the medical concerns. Latu impressed with his intelligence. Maxx Crosby learned how to win with sub-33 arms. I expect Latu will do so as well. Solid top 20 value.

(Editor’s note: Crosby was a fourth-round pick who beat the odds.)

Chop Robinson, Penn State: Factoid that might interest only me: There are only two players in the RAS database named Chop, and both are in the 2024 class.

Robinson is a quality athlete, but 32.5-inch arms are going to give some teams pause. Only had 9.5 sacks over the past two seasons. Robinson just turned 21 in January so there’s plenty of room for growth. SackSEER is a fan (21.2 projected sacks in five seasons).

His film was impressive. Robinson popped out due to his explosiveness. Even with the low sack totals, Robinson was disruptive via consistent pressure. He how the power to push offensive tackles into the backfield, and the speed to get around them. Nice work with his hands, although that will get tougher if everyone he’s facing has a reach advantage on him.

I rarely talk about range in regards to edge rushers. Robinson has it. In time, he should be versatile enough to play both passing and running downs, as well as drop down into coverage.

I see Robinson as a solid top-20 value. The man can play.

Darius Robinson, Missouri: Undersized but athl… wait, wot? Big, strong, with length and large hands. Robinson can play defensive tackle, defensive end, and yes, he can even serve as an elephant linebacker.

Robinson had eight sacks and 16 tackles for loss last season. Trust me when I tell you he is going to be a problem to block in the NFL. He’s quite raw, with a lot of room for refinement. He played hard and gave a great effort. With his rare physical gifts, his upside is enormous.

One concern I have is he didn’t quite have the lower body power you might expect for a man his size. I would not describe him as stout, particularly when up against offensive linemen topping 300 pounds. He can certainly hold his ground at an elite level for a defensive end, but might not have the anchor you’d want from a defensive tackle.

There are a number of ways Robinson can prove effective in the NFL. He could develop better interior rush skills. He can drop some weight and turn into a true 4-3 edge-rusher. He could put on some weight and play as more of a traditional tackle with pass-rush value.

Even though I am unsure of Robinson’s eventual role, I can say this: I’m confident he’s a first-round value. He’ll make a difference for the team that drafts him. I like him more than any of the prospects listed above, apart from Dallas Turner.

Chris Braswell, Alabama: This was not the combine Braswell was hoping for. He’s coming off of a eight sack season (14 tackles for loss). The combine wrecked Braswell’s SackSEER projection (13.8).

Braswell didn’t see a ton of playing time at Alabama until his final season. What we saw wasn’t bad, but it’s a smaller sample than we might like.

It’s clear from the film that Braswell won with athleticism. He’s going to need some time to develop a refined set of moves. The one thing that I appreciated was his willingness (and ability) to take what he could get. If his speed move was blocked, he’s quick to switch to a power move. That might not get him to the quarterback, but it at least moves the pocket and disrupts the play.

One concern I have is that his lack of experience show up via questionable instincts. Braswell would sometimes find himself out of position because he failed to read the play, or worse, misread it.

I see Braswell as a project with a lot of upside. Even with limited experience, he was able to produce. My expectation is he’ll be a solid contributor to a pass rush rotation in a few years. Good value outside of the top 40.

Bralen Trice, Washington: 15.5 sacks over the past two seasons. Decent combine. The odd thing for me is that I watched plenty of Washington Huskies games over the past few years and Trice never really stood out. When I watched his film I think I understand why.

Trice wasn’t really a dominator. He was more of a solid player who gave max effort play-after-play. Trice has more than his fair share of pass-rush moves. My sense is that he’s a bit closer to his ceiling than most prospects.

Brice turned 23 in February. Not quite over-aged, but he didn’t really start performing at an elite level until he was older than most of the competition. I see a player who will probably end up providing quality rotational depth. I’d look at Trice around the middle of round three.

Adisa Isaac, Penn State: This is a pretty good athletic profile when you take his length into account. Isaac had 7.5 sacks and 20 tackles for loss last season. Not bad. His quickness off the snap jumps out at you. Isaac can beat offensive tackles off the edge before they are set.

There were multiple plays where Isaac caught offensive tackles off guard by switching to a bull rush while they were mid-step. It was a beautiful thing to see and highly effective. He wasn’t a one-trick pony either as he kept attacking even if he didn’t win off of the snap.

There are some areas where he’ll need to improve. His tackling isn’t where the NFL will want it to be. Better technique, and perhaps some more power, will be helpful here.

I like Isaac quite a bit and would be fine taking him outside of the top 50.

Austin Booker, Kansas: In general, I want to look at edge’s as if they were 3-4 linebackers. This isn’t a great athletic profile in that light.

With only 15 games under his belt, I figured perhaps he wanted to come out because he just had an elite season. While that’s true, 7.5 sacks (12 tackles for loss) isn’t going to set the world on fire.

I think that his biggest asset is his potential upside. Booker has elite length. On his best plays, he broke into the backfield before the offense was ready to deal with the rush. Booker isn’t necessarily ready for the NFL, but perhaps he’s ready for NFL coaching as he develops his skills.

Upon further reflection, I get it. Booker won’t turn 22 until December. He’s good enough already to be worth a late day two pick, with the upside of being a potential first-round value. He’ll develop in the NFL while getting paid and working towards his second contract. He’s a tricky prospect to judge. I think the risk-reward starts balancing around the middle of day two.

Jonah Elliss, Utah: Twelve sacks and 19 tackles for loss in 10 games last season. Elliss missed the final three games with a shoulder injury. His combine made me laugh. Elliss ran the drills that he excelled in and skipped the 40. I’m just going to assume he’s slow, but it’s not a big deal.

The film says Elliss has NFL-level football speed. Elliss played fast and ended up making a lot of plays after being blocked initially. Elliss showed both high intensity and impressive stamina. I should add that he was an excellent closer. It was very tough to escape once he got his hands on you.

Jonah’s brother Kaden plays for the Falcons. He too wasn’t the fleetest of foot, but has managed to do a fine job at linebacker in Atlanta.

I’m confident Jonah will be able to contribute at the next level. I’m fine taking him in the back half of round three.

Marshawn Kneeland, Western Michigan: Kneeland is a bit of a Rorschach test for NFL front offices. Do you see a player with good athleticism and 34.5-inch arms? Or do you see a player who failed to dominate at Western Michigan (12.5 sacks in four seasons)?

There are two things I want to note in favor of Kneeland. The first is that he generated a lot more pressure than his sack total would suggest. The second is that opponents treated him with respect, giving him extra attention via chips and double-teams.

Kneeland is a converted tight end. He moves more fluidly in space than the average edge-rusher, particularly given his size. Kneeland’s best football might be ahead of him. Or he might just be a guy who never had five sacks in a season. I’m sticking with a round-three grade, although he might be long gone by then.

Gabriel Murphy, UCLA: Eight sacks in 2021 for North Texas. Nine sacks last season for UCLA. 30.5-inch arms. I’m skeptical Murphy’s skills will translate well to the NFL.

If Murphy is going to struggle in hand fighting on the defensive line, he’ll need to be able to work in space. However, there were issues there too. Murphy’s tackling radius was unfortunately commensurate with his arm length. The good news is he had good closing speed.

I don’t want to belittle Murphy. He made his fair share of plays for UCLA. His effort and technique were commendable. But the NFL measurables exist for a reason. I see Murphy as a day three depth pickup.

2024 NFL Draft: Defensive Tackles

April 22, 2024

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Rank	Name	Position	School	Rating
18	Jer’Zhan Newton	DT	Illinois	81.82
23	Byron Murphy II	DT	Texas	80.69
40	T’Vondre Sweat	DT	Texas	74.20
47	Kris Jenkins	DT	Michigan	73.01
58	Ruke Orhorhoro	DT	Clemson	69.81
71	Braden Fiske	DT	Florida State	67.99
92	Maason Smith	DT	LSU	64.00
93	Michael Hall Jr.	DT	Ohio State	63.76
95	Mekhi Wingo	DT	LSU	63.70
112	DeWayne Carter	DT	Duke	60.33
116	Leonard Taylor III	DT	Miami	59.71

I feel like this is a thin defensive tackle class (T’Vondre Sweat excepted). Byron Murphy is considered the one elite prospect from it. I am not so sure that’s accurate. I like Newton quite a bit. Off-field issues aside, I like Sweat as well.

Jer’Zhan “Johnny” Newton, Illinois: The Big 10 Defensive Player of the Year. In a conference with Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State, Newton was recognized as the best of the bunch.

It’s pretty easy to see why. Newton generated significant pressure. The man had 12 sacks over the past two seasons. Overall, he had 27 tackles for a loss over that time. He was disruptive.

Newton will have to rely on his film as he didn’t test at the combine. He looked quick on film. One issue is that he might not have the power the NFL likes. Newton was much better attacking the line of scrimmage than he was at holding his ground. Double teams were a problem. When matched up one-on-one, he was was much more interested in going around than maintaining lane integrity. He’ll need to wind up in a scheme that allows for his play style.

I can live with Newton’s limitations. Defensive tackles who can get to the quarterback are hard to find. Does Newton fit the planet theory? Absolutely not. You’ll be able to find other linemen with similar, or better measurements. He can’t point to an elite combine. But his film impressed me. I agree with the Big 10. Newton is great and he would be my first defensive tackle off the board. Top 20 value.

Byron Murphy, Texas: Phenomenal combine. Murphy is coming off of his best season (five sacks, 11 tackles for a loss). He had good pass rush skills, and would at least try to push the pocket if he couldn’t get by his man.

Murphy displayed impressive power in the running game. When asked to hold his ground, it would take a strong double team to make an impact. He did a fine job chasing down plays, and preventing running backs from turning up field. He was an impact player and a problem the offense had to take into account.

Murphy isn’t the traditional oversized 3-4 nose tackle. He’s comfortable attacking the line of scrimmage, with the strength to be an asset against the run. I can see why he’s expected to be the first defensive tackle off the board. I admit that I prefer Newton’s disruptiveness (Newton is currently the better pass-rusher). Murphy is much less scheme dependent and should be able to produce from day one. I see him as a top 25 value and would be my second defense tackle off the board.

T’Vondre Sweat, Texas: This is one of those cases where the RAS grade doesn’t tell the whole story. At 6’4, 366, no one expects Sweat to be fast or explosive. He brings a level of power that you simply will not find anywhere else.

Sweat saw his draft stock tumble after getting arrested for a DWI. It’s possible some teams that might have otherwise considered him will now remove him from their boards.

It’s unlikely that Sweat’s playing weight was 366. He was listed at 364 at Texas and was speculated to be around 390 during the college football playoffs.

Full disclosure: I loved Sweat’s film. Absolutely loved it. You couldn’t single block him in the running game. He was too big and too strong. He had obscene pressure numbers as well. Only two sacks (ten tackles for a loss). Sweat moved offensive guards into the pocket with ease. Any player who commands double-teams provides opportunities for his teammates to make plays. Sweat did that. A true impact player.

Now, beyond the DUI, there are a couple of issues. The first is that he didn’t have much range. The range issue showed up at Texas. Forget double blocks, you didn’t need to block Sweat at all if you ran the play away from him. His lack of agility meant you could attack areas near him without being too concerned he’d be able to get there and make a play. The second was stamina. Sweat would play hard, but then need to take breaks.

Unlike Newton and Murphy, Sweat is absolutely an example of “planet theory.” Even after the DUI, I see a clear first-round value. He was much, much better than I was expecting him to be.

Kris Jenkins, Michigan: His father, Kris Jenkins, was a two time All Pro defensive tackle for the Carolina Panthers.

Jenkins plays the same position as his father, but with a different style. Where his father was a large gap stuffer, Jenkins is an undersized elite athlete.

I’m somewhat torn on Jenkins. On one hand, he played quite well at Michigan, particularly in their playoff run. He displayed elite range, as well as a high degree of football intelligence. He maintained gap integrity, but would be quick to adjust if the play called for it. Jenkins is quite well coached and polished.

What he lacks are elite traits that translate to the next level. His pash-rush skills won’t threaten NFL interior linemen. He has enough power to face off in single-blocking, but double-teams will put him on roller skates. While I love his range, that’s probably not high on the list of what teams look for at defensive tackle.

Jenkins is a smart player who should be able to do his job. Ultimately I see a player who should come off the board between the middle to the back half of round two.

Ruke Orhorhoro, Clemson: A great athlete, but size matters. Ruke had nine sacks (18 hits+hurries) over the past two seasons. This is a case where a team will have to weigh his future potential vs. the film.

Ruke didn’t dominate at Clemson. When blockers made first contact, he rarely disengaged and made a play. He was quick off the snap, but unless he guessed right, he was as likely to win off the snap as he was to take himself out of the play.

The upside here is that he really is an elite athlete. If he can develop a more complete set of pass-rush moves, he could prove to be disruptive, particularly from the interior where his length should frustrate guards. My sense is that his best football is still ahead of him. He doesn’t have a lot of starting experience. In a few years he could prove to be an elite starter. Solid second-round value.

Braden Fiske, Florida State: Oh hey, another great athlete well below the desired weight. Funny how that keeps happening.

Fiske did a pretty nice job in his fifth season at Western Michigan in 2022 (six sacks, 14 tackles for loss.) He transferred to Florida State and showed he could produce against tougher competition (six sacks, 11 tackles for loss). Fiske turned 24 in January.

31-inch arms are going to scare a number of teams off. I’m a little skeptical he’ll be able to generate pressure against NFL interior linemen. I’m also concerned that opponents will be able to move him off the spot. Undersized defensive linemen that can’t make first contact are playing on hard mode.

This is an odd case. Fiske is a pretty good football player. He’s shown he can play against decent competition, but I don’t see him being able to hold down a starting job in the NFL. He’s small on the interior. He doesn’t have the length to play outside. He earned a third-round grade, but I wouldn’t touch him until day three. He’ll be long gone by then.

Brandon Dorlus, Oregon: Somewhat of a hybrid defensive tackle-edge. I know, it’s an odd combo. He’s a bit undersized at tackle, and enormous at edge. It doesn’t really matter what he’s labeled. The question is “Can he get to the quarterback?”

Dorlus had five sacks last season, but only 12 in his five-season collegiate career. Dorlus did not light up the stat sheet at Oregon. Perhaps his best asset is his versatility. He should be able to be a pass-rush specialist defensive tackle, and a run-stuffing defensive end.

One concern might be that the learning curve will be steep. It’s hard enough to learn one position in the NFL. Dorlus has good athleticism on the inside, good power outside. If he can find a team that can take advantage of his strengths will hiding his limitations, he should be a nice addition. Solid third-round value.

Maason Smith, LSU: Smith can shake your hand from across the room. I just wish he had the production to match.

Smith had four sacks as a freshman in 2021. Since then, he’s suffered a pair of major injuries (shoulder, ACL) and only managed two sacks in 2023.

The film showed a player who lacked the explosion or play strength to start in the NFL. The question is whether or not he can eventually recover the form he showed back in 2021. That’s a pretty big gamble if you’re using a high pick on him.

The upside is that you might end up with a defensive tackle with unique athletic gifts. I am going with what I saw. Day three depth.

Michael Hall Jr., Ohio State: Yay, great athlete, undersized! Hall has the skills you might expect. Decent pass rush skills. Good range. Faced tough competition and has developed a solid set of moves.

Hall doesn’t quite have the power most teams are looking for. I see a player who has certain limitations, but if put in the right system, he’ll be able to produce. I’m comfortable giving him a third-round grade.

Mekhi Wingo, LSU: Stop me if you’ve heard this before: a great athlete, albeit undersized. Seven sacks in his last two seasons, but didn’t generate a commensurate amount of pressure.

Wingo is a project. He’s never going to be a boulder in the running game. He needs to develop a complete set of pass-rush moves to threaten NFL offensive linemen. His arms are too short to be a serious option at defensive end. His upside has to be a pass-rush specialist defensive tackle. It’s either that, or he’s rotational depth.

Wingo is a day three option for me. I don’t see a player who can hold down a starting job in the NFL.

DeWayne Carter, Duke: I commend Carter for being a good sport and running the shuttle and 3-cone. Back in 2022 Carter had six sacks and 13 tackles for loss. In 2023 opponents decided they had had enough of him and started giving him double-teams. His numbers suffered, but his teammates reaped the benefits.

Carter prefers to attack the line of scrimmage. He wasn’t great when asked to hold his spot. There were multiple plays where he took himself out of position by attempting to beat his man. His coaching staff will have to give him a better understanding of how to recognize his responsibilities on the play.

Carter will turn 24 in December. My sense is he’s a late third-round value.

Leonard Taylor III, Miami: Let me assure you that these numbers do not tell the whole story. Taylor is quick off the snap. He’ll either win instantly or not at all. I’m not sure if I’ve ever seen a player quite like him.

Part of the issue is that Miami has a deep defensive line rotation. They want their players to go all out, and then rest. Pacing yourself isn’t part of the plan. So Taylor would explode off of the snap and try to generate penetration. When given one-gap responsibilities, he was pretty good at it too.

Taylor isn’t going to be able to play this way in the NFL. He’s going to need to develop a more complete repertoire of moves. Raw athleticism and energy isn’t enough, unless you’re a freak. Taylor is not. He has the length and overall physique the NFL wants. I’d give him an early round four grade.

2024 NFL Draft: Tight Ends

April 19, 2024

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Rank	Name	Position	School	Rating
4	Brock Bowers	TE	Georgia	89.60
48	Ja’Tavion Sanders	TE	Texas	72.72
64	Cade Stover	TE	Ohio State	68.45
88	Theo Johnson	TE	Penn State	64.49

Brock Bowers aside, this is a pretty thin tight end class. As I noted last year, tight ends generally take some time to develop. Sam Laporta proved to be an exception to that in Detroit. The hope is that Brock Bowers will be as ready to play from week one as Laporta was.

Brock Bowers, Georgia: Bowers lead Georgia in receiving each of the past three seasons. Over that time he produced 2,731 yards-from-scrimmage, with 31 touchdowns, in forty games. He didn’t bother testing at the combine or at his Pro Day. At 6’3, 243 he’s slightly undersized. He’s a pure receiving threat who can do a decent job of blocking when asked.

Bowers was considered a pure mismatch during most of his games in college. Too big and fast for safeties. Linebackers couldn’t handle his route-running skills. The dude simply kept getting open. That’s how you become Georgia’s #1 weapon.

His job gets harder in the NFL. NFL safeties will be able to keep up with him. That will force him to use more physicality to get open. Having said that, his evasiveness should serve him well. I expect he’ll learn how to find holes in NFL zones pretty quickly.

In terms of beating man coverage, that might take a bit longer. The skills are there though. Bowers really does look like a complete package.

This one is a bit personal for me as Bowers is expected to be available at ten. That means he’d probably be the best available player when the Jets are on the clock. While I’d be fine with one of the top offensive tackles, Bowers is the expectation. I guess he’ll look good in green. Top ten value.

(Editor’s note: Bowers won’t turn 22 until December. I am slightly happier about his potential future in New York.)

Ja’Tavion Sanders, Texas: I didn’t love his combine. Sanders is a mediocre blocker, so he’ll have to provide value in the passing game. In college, he had the speed to beat linebackers, and could muscle nickelbacks. In the NFL, the tougher competition will force him to develop new skills to succeed.

Sanders has huge hands, but wasn’t as good at bringing in catchable balls as I would have hoped. Perhaps part of the issue was a nagging ankle injury. Hopefully he’ll be more consistent with that behind him.

The one thing I’d like to note is he was exceptional at generating yards after the catch. He trusted his hands and tucked the ball quickly, turning upfield before defenders could close. That’s the skill I expect to help him succeed in the NFL.

Sanders has some room for growth. I expect him to put on some muscle and become at least a passable blocker in the NFL. He has enough speed to be a mismatch threat, especially when put into motion. Sanders just turned 21 in March. His upside potential is solid. I’d be fine selecting him around the middle of the second round.

Cade Stover, Ohio State: Stover will turn 24 in June. Pretty good athlete, with a similar build to Bowers and Sanders. Like them, he’s much more of a receiver than a blocker. Stover did a fine job presenting a large target to his quarterback. He was also well above average at winning contested balls.

Stover is a converted linebacker, so his game is still being refined. He didn’t do a great job creating separation in college. It’s about to become a lot harder for him in that regard.

Just going by the film, Stover doesn’t have the evasiveness to be a major receiving threat. He has nice straight line speed, but it’s linebacker speed, not receiver speed. Receivers need to be able to accelerate and downshift as needed. Stover is focused on getting to his spot ASAP. That’s not all bad though. He did a nice job of being where he was supposed to be, when he was expected to be there.

I don’t see the same upside for Stover as I see with Sanders. As such, he looks like a late third-round pick to add depth, or be a low-end starter if you need a cheaper option.

Theo Johnson, Penn State: Whatever you do, don’t fall in love with Johnson’s combine. He’s an awesome athlete, with the prototype traditional tight end build. He absolutely looks the part. He just didn’t play at an elite level.

Over the past two seasons Johnson had 54 receptions for 669 yards yards and 11 touchdowns. Not bad, but over 24 games a premier target should see more action than that. Part of the issue is that he didn’t do a great job creating separation. He simply didn’t play fast. The athletic skills are there. He just needs to process the game faster.

At first, I wasn’t impressed by his blocking. Eventually, I realized it was more of a “me” problem. I wanted him to dominate due to his size. For the most part, he got the job done, particularly in the running game. Johnson has no problem playing aggressively. That’s true after the catch as well. He’s more comfortable running over defenders than trying to dodge them.

In pass protection he was a bit passive, giving up pressure inside. I have no idea why I’m writing about him like he was an offensive tackle, but here we are. I will say he had an impressive anchor, particularly against bull-rushing defensive ends.

Johnson has some room for growth. He turned 23 in February. I expect he’ll be able to bulk up a bit and work well as an inline tight end who has the speed to punish linebackers. I see him as a solid third-round value. Also, he’s from Winnipeg, so I’ll be rooting for him.

(Update: I’ve been asked to dig a little deeper into the class.)

Rank	Name	Position	School	Rating
132	Ben Sinnott	TE	Kansas State	56.20
133	Jared Wiley	TE	TCU	56.18

Ben Sinnott, Kansas State: 1,123 yards receiving over the past two seasons. Strong combine. There’s some potential here, but the film suggests Sinnott is more of a complimentary player rather than one who wins on his own.

Sinnott was a decent blocker, but I didn’t see the kind of power that would suggest he belongs inline. When working from the slot, the question will be can he take linebackers deep. It’s possible that Sinnott will prove to be a mismatch. The concern is that’s not how he was used at Kansas State. He was mostly used for screens and short passes.

I wonder if Sinnott’s combine has people hoping he can be more productive in the NFL than he was in college. That does happen, but it’s a tough thing to expect. The guy I saw on film was a day three pickup. He’ll probably be off the board by then. Tight ends are tricky to judge in general, so perhaps his upside is worthy of a round three selection. That’s not where I would take him though.

Jared Wiley, TCU: Will turn 24 in November. Decent combine, but the lack of agility might be an issue. Solid final season (520 yards, 8 touchdowns in 12 games).

Wiley proved to be a reliable short-range target. He did a fine job of presenting a large target via an oversized catch radius. I’m not confident he’ll be able to create separation against man coverage in the NFL. The lack of agility and quick feet showed up on film.

I’m neutral on his blocking skills. He had enough strength and skill to usually at least achieve a stalemate, allowing the runner to find space on the outside. I wouldn’t want to ask him to open up holes.

I see Wiley as a decent day three option. If you simply need a tight end as a third or fourth option on offense, Wiley should be able to hold down the job.

2024 NFL Draft: Centers & Guards

April 19, 2024

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Rank	Name	Position	School	Rating
25	Graham Barton	C	Duke	78.96
26	Jackson Powers-Johnson	C	Oregon	78.87
52	Zach Frazier	C	West Virginia	71.83
72	Sedrick Van Pran-Granger	C	Georgia	67.80
99	Beaux Limmer	C	Arkansas	63.31
103	Hunter Nourzad	C	Penn State	62.70
128	Tanor Bortolini	C	Wisconsin	57.10

The NFL has sent a clear message: guards are becoming more valuable. Centers, more fungible. That could end up being a little awkward as my top interior offensive line prospect doesn’t have a clear position as of yet.

Graham Barton, Duke: Fantastic athlete. I have to confess that I don’t know if teams are looking at him at center or at guard. Barton played left tackle for Duke. He had some starts at center early in his collegiate career. He won’t play tackle in the NFL, so it will have to come down to where his new coaching staff thinks he’ll best fit.

Barton’s film was impressive. He was active, looking to make plays in space. His pass protection skills were solid, albeit limited by his length. That should be less of an issue inside. Barton showed good power here, bending, but rarely breaking.

Barton was an asset in the running game. He was aggressive, usually winning his individual battles. Insofar as he had a major issue, it was that opponents could take advantage of his aggressiveness and knock him off his feet when he was off balance. Truth be told, Barton ended up on his ass far too often for a player of his caliber. His coaching staff will have to help him calibrate here.

Barton’s athleticism popped through the screen. Even though I can’t be sure what position he’ll end up at, I’m confident in giving him a first-round grade. The man can play.

Jackson Powers-Johnson, Oregon: JPJ did the drills he felt confident in, and skipped the others. I get it. On film he looked powerful, but not necessarily athletic.

Let’s cover his strengths:

Excellent play recognition. It was hard to fool him with blitzes or stunts. Good at moving his feet to prevent pass-rushers from getting the angle. JPJ had absolutely insane numbers in pass protection. He simply didn’t give up pressure, let alone sacks. However, a lot of the credit has to go to Bo Nix for his lightning quick checkdowns.

JPJ has some issues he’ll need to correct. If he didn’t win with an initial move, it was very hard for him to get leverage, particularly in the running game. This might partially be a function of his lack of length. He was better at standing his ground than moving people. I expect he’ll have to be part of double-teams to create holes in the NFL.

Oregon’s offense kind of warps JPJ’s stats, but it’s hard to ignore how off-the-charts his numbers were. The film tells me he’s a late first-round value. Most likely at center, but possibly at guard.

Zach Frazier, West Virginia: Heartbreaking film. I get that the combine wasn’t what he was hoping for. That wouldn’t wouldn’t be as much of an issue if the film told a different story.

When I’m watching film what I’m looking for is evidence that a player can succeed against elite competition. There are different ways to show this. Some players are metronomes, doing their job snap after snap after snap. You learn that you can trust them. Other players shine, via dominant traits, or just big plays and great numbers.

When I watched Frazier I saw a guy who sometimes got his ass kicked by players that are going to go pro in something other than football.

Frazier earned a second-round grade by having solid overall numbers. He actually did some nice work opening up holes. His ability to read and react quickly allowed him to regularly seal off linebackers before they could make a play. When he was able to lock on to defenders, the power was there. But there are two issues which knock him down for me.

Frazier, despite being short and stout, didn’t have the play strength in pass protection I was looking for. Part of the issue was longer defenders making first contact and knocking Frazier off balance. Additionally, if defenders got the edge on him, his lack of length forced him to choose between holding or surrendering pressure. Those are bad choices my friend.

Ultimately, I am skeptical of Frazier. I wouldn’t want to touch him day three, if I needed interior line depth.

Sedrick Van Pran-Granger, Georgia: Made 44 starts at center for the two-time national champions. That alone is a pretty good start to one’s resume. Sedrick’s athletic profile is not going to be for everyone. His lack of length popped up on tape.

Sedrick did a lot of the parts of his job very well. He delivered a consistent shotgun snap. He was quick to react to the defensive rush. In space, he was a huge asset on the second level, sealing off linebackers to help spring big plays. At this point he’s a well coached, well developed player. But his arms under 31.5 inches, and that’s a problem.

Some teams simply won’t draft a player who doesn’t match certain measurements at the position. For a team that’s more flexible, they’re getting a dude who knows how to do his job. I view him as a solid round three pickup.

Beaux Limmer, Arkansas: Pretty good athletic profile, although some teams will look down on his weight and length. Limmer is a test of whether you value the upside of his athleticism, or if you want certain specific measurements. Then again, he’s also a test of how much you value collegiate production. His wasn’t great.

Limmer has experience at both guard and center. That may prove helpful as right now he’s not starting material at either position. His ability to provide depth at multiple positions on the line is what should allow him to stick on an NFL roster.

Limmer’s best current asset is his mobility in the running game. He was able to make his blocks along the line, or seek out defenders. His ability to pull, or create space on the second-level was impressive.

His pass protection isn’t remotely NFL-level. Neither his footwork, nor his overall power are where they will need to be. And you can’t coach length.

I see Limmer is a day three roster depth pickup.

Hunter Nourzad, Penn State: Not a lot of numbers here, but the ones we have are textbook. Nourzad is a tricky case to judge. He played right tackle at Cornell for two seasons. He’s played left guard and then center for Penn State. He’s still picking up some of the finer points of the position. I will say his performance when he was able to recognize his responsibilities was pretty good, even when facing elite competition.

Nourzad flashed impressive strength. What he lacked was the quickness most teams like on the interior. Smart coaching staffs attacked Nourzad with stunts that tested his ability to get to the spot. He was quite literally hit or miss.

In the running game Nourzad was clearly much better when able to move north-south rather than east-west. Having said that, he didn’t exactly move defensive linemen north-south, at least, not on his own.

I see Nourzad as a project with some potential upside value due to his versatility. Guys who can play any position on the line have a habit of finding roster spots. But I don’t see a starting position for him, so to the day three crapshoot he goes.

Tanor Bortolini, Wisconsin: Blake Bortles started in the NFL. FIU quarterback Max Bortenenschlager earned a camp invite from the Colts. And now Tanor Bortolini is looking to get drafted, most likely on day three. We’re still waiting for our first Bort though. One day.

A lot of green here, but again, the length and the weight are going to be what some teams focus on. Bortolini was generally technically sound. It’s not obvious that he has enough power to hold down a starting job in the NFL. I definitely didn’t see guard-level run blocking. Some teams just want a center who can do their job without committing penalties or any major mistakes. Speaking of penalties, Bortolini had a slight issue with holding penalties last season, but had played quite cleanly previously.

Bortolini has been well coached and should be able to provide quality roster depth early in his career. I’d expect him to hear his name called the first half of day three.

Rank	Name	Position	School	Rating
59	Christian Haynes	G	Connecticut	69.57
77	Cooper Beebe	G	Kansas State	66.57
94	Zak Zinter	G	Michigan	63.71
121	Christian Mahogany	G	Boston College	58.86

Christian Haynes, Connecticut: I can’t find any definitive information on his age, but if he was 18 when he graduated high school, Haynes turned 24 earlier this April.

Haynes wasn’t heavily recruited. Over his six-year (four season) collegiate career he was dominant at right guard for Connecticut, making 50 starts in that time. His film popped as he was clearly better than most of the opponents he went up against. He had a chance to impress at the Senior Bowl, where he showed off some potential to play at center if needed.

Haynes developed into a very good athlete. I wouldn’t sweat his height. Length is much more important to NFL evaluators. The bigger issue is power. He was strong enough to win at the FCS level. He’s going to need to get stronger to handle NFL interior defensive linemen.

His run-blocking success rate was absurd, but again, we have to adjust for the fact he was facing people who won’t sniff NFL practice rosters. Also, he spent six years in college.

This is a tricky case for me. There’s some nice potential upside here, but between his age and the level of competition faced, it’s to know what kind of performance we can expect from him. The key factor might be his length, and the fact that few other interior offensive linemen can match it. I suppose I would take him around the middle of round two. Sometimes you have to roll the dice and bet on talent and upside.

Cooper Beebe, Kansas State: Beebe doesn’t have the length some teams will want. What he does have is power. The power to get low and drive defenders back. He also have the athleticism and football intelligence to be a monster in space.

When I watched his film, I felt like I was watching an NFL left guard. Beebe has played multiple positions along the line. He had the athleticism to match up with a variety to pass-rush moves. The weakness is length, but there’s not much to be done about that. He’ll need proper footwork in the NFL to prevent it from being an issue.

He’ll also need a team who is comfortable with his measurements. In the right scheme, Beebe should be a quality starter. He’s done good work against a high level of competition. I’d be comfortable taking him outside of the top 50.

Zak Zinter, Michigan: Zinter is coming back from a broken tibia and fibula. He wasn’t able to test at the combine. Let’s cover the good and the bad for Zinter.

Solid length. Wonderful numbers are Michigan. Did a fine job drive-blocking in the running game. Good power overall.

I have a few concerns. The first is the injury. He’s expected to make a full recovery, but it’s hard to be certain. The second is that his pass protection wasn’t on the same level as his run blocking. That didn’t necessarily show up in his statistics because the offensive line was so strong overall. It didn’t take long for Michigan to adjust to his absence. They clearly missed him vs. Iowa, but much less so against Alabama and Washington.

It’s a shame he couldn’t run at the combine as my final concern was his agility. I’m not sure how much I trust him in pass protection. I’m confident he’ll be an asset in the running game. He might need some help from the center early in his career on passing downs.

I see Zinter as a late third-round value, although the injury might push him to day three.

Christian Mahogany, Boston College: Will turn 24 in October. Made first team All-ACC. I am not sure he deserved it. Early in the season his play suffered as he was returning from an ACL injury. When he finally seemed fully healthy, he appeared to have diminished pass protection skills. Will they come back in time? Tough to gamble on, especially when stepping up in competition.

If his knee fully recovers, Mahogany offers an impressive mix of intelligence and athleticism. Checks off the size boxes as well. His run blocking skills when healthy were top notch. In pass protection he was very tough to fool. You might beat him with athleticism, but rarely will he miss his responsibility against a stunt or late blitz.

Mahogany is expected to be 100% next season. If that’s the case, he’s a round three value. The mix of traits and skills he brings to the table isn’t that common. I’m going to guess his medicals come back clean and that he comes off the board day two.

2024 NFL Draft: Offensive Tackles

April 17, 2024

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Rank	Name	Position	School	Rating
5	Joe Alt	OT	Notre Dame	89.10
9	Olumuyiwa Fashanu	OT	Penn State	86.27
11	JC Latham	OT	Alabama	84.98
21	Troy Fautanu	OT	Washington	80.80
22	Taliese Fuaga	OT	Oregon State	80.78
24	Amarius Mims	OT	Georgia	79.64
27	Tyler Guyton	OT	Oklahoma	78.51
35	Kingsley Suamataia	OT	BYU	75.42
39	Jordan Morgan	OT	Arizona	74.21
60	Patrick Paul	OT	Houston	69.48
74	Dominick Puni	OT	Kansas	67.28
79	Kiran Amegadjie	OT	Yale	66.12
86	Roger Rosengarten	OT	Washington	65.00
91	Blake Fisher	OT	Notre Dame	64.18
122	Isaiah Adams	OT	Illinois	58.24
123	Sataoa Laumea	OT	Utah	58.02
124	Javon Foster	OT	Missouri	58.00

This is a deep and talented class. That’s good, because the NFL needs them. I’m expecting positional value to be at the forefront of many GM’s minds.

Joe Alt, Notre Dame: Checks off every box. Premium athlete. 34+ inch arms. 10 inch hands. Near prototype size and build. Alt absolutely looks the part. The good news is that he played the part well at Notre Dame.

Alt did a fine job in pass protection. Good footwork meant he was rarely out of position. He used his length well to initiate first contact while setting his base. If I were to quibble, I’d note that his height made it difficult for to set a low center of gravity, particularly if he was forced to reset his feet.

He’ll also need to develop more advanced moves with his hands, but that’s going to be true for every offensive line prospect. NFL-level rush moves and OL counters are simply on a different level than what we see in college.

Alt will be a boon for the running game. He has elite power. His athleticism allows him to square up with linebackers in space and just demolish them. He also did a find job sealing the end, or creating a push at the line of scrimmage if that’s what the play called for.

Alt is my clear #1OT. Different offensive line schemes require different skills, so I’d understand it if some teams had other options on top of their draft boards. There is no other offensive lineman in the draft where I am as confident of NFL success. Alt should be making trips to the Pro Bowl while on his rookie contract. Solid top five value.

Olumuyiwa Fashanu, Penn State: A very good athlete. 34 inch arms. Smaller hands than the NFL would like (8.5 inches). Some teams will credit Fashanu with having a prototype build in terms of height and weight.

Fashanu’s pass protection looked marvelous on film. He handled power with ease. His footwork and length shut down speed moves. Once he locked his hands on you, it was very hard to break free. He was also very good at communicating with his teammates. He understood his responsibilities and recognized where the rush was coming from.

Fashanu was a quality run blocker as well. He did a fine job at the point of attack, bringing significant power. There were some notable issues to correct here. He sometimes would play too fast, running himself out of position. That would cause him to either miss a block, or have poor technique. It’s something his coaching staff will work on with him. He also needs to have better awareness of the running back’s path. There were multiple plays where the running back was forced to move around Fashanu. Not optimal, but again, something that can be addressed.

Fashanu has the potential to be an elite left tackle in the NFL. I trust he’ll be able to protect his quarterback. A top ten value.

JC Latham, Alabama: I respect Latham’s decision not to run at the NFL combine. The measurements told the tale. 35+ inch arms. 11 inch hands. 6’5, 342. Latham is a great example of Bill Parcell’s “Planet theory.” There simply are not many men on the planet with the size and athleticism to win in the trenches. Latham is one of them.

Latham has one weakness in pass protection, but let me first celebrate his strengths. The man straight up demolished bull rushes. He simply refused to be moved. His length and hands made it a brutal task to try and beat him outside. His footwork was impressive. The film says Latham is a quality athlete.

The concern here is that Latham is not great vs. inside speed rushes. Part of the issue is that he doesn’t show strong pre-snap recognition of where the rush will come from. He gets off the snap quickly, but then he reads and reacts. He also guards against outside speed rushes, which left him vulnerable inside. This is an area where he’s going to need to improve.

Latham’s power in the running game is elite. Alabama modified their play calling to take advantage of Latham’s effectiveness. Defenders tried to avoid engaging him head on, instead preferring to take the long way around. His ability to move defenders off the spot will make an immediate impact for the team that drafts him.

Latham is an ideal right tackle for a number of NFL blocking schemes. Truth be told, I’d love to see Latham go to the Jets. He looks like a top 15 value with a high upside. I expect he’ll succeed wherever he ends up.

Troy Fautanu, Washington: Fautanu will turn 24 in October. Fautanu is a quality athlete with 34+ inch arms. He might be a little shorter than teams would like, but that’s not a huge deal.

I have to tell you, I did not love Fautanu’s film. He was quick, with decent power. There’s talent here. But he also missed more blocks than I was expecting. Perhaps he was more interested in dominating and less interested in consistency? I’m not really sure, but he found himself out of position against stunts and double-moves way too often.

Powerful run blocker. Great range as well. Fautanu shined here, opening up space consistently. He played a very aggressive brand of ball and made it work for him.

I don’t want to be too negative. Fautanu played hard. The dude is going to endear himself to his coaches with his effort and toughness. I just don’t think he’s as talented as the other elites in this class. I wouldn’t touch him until day two.

Taliese Fuaga, Oregon State: Strong combine. Played right tackle for the Beavers. There’s been talk of him moving to guard in the NFL, but I don’t see it.

Fuaga was very good in pass protection. If he was able to get a good grip, defenders couldn’t separate. Good footwork in terms of preventing defenders from getting a good rush angle. His strength more than held up against power rushers. His recovery skills are a work in process. He’ll need to be coached up in that regard.

Here’s where I need to talk about his arms. He’s just above 33 inches, which means he won’t fit what some teams are looking for. He’ll need to go to a team where they’re comfortable with what Fuaga brings to the table.

What Fuaga can do is move defenders off the spot. He hits people. Hard. His athleticism shined on tape. Fuaga was excellent when moving to the second level, attacking defenders before they could go after the ballcarrier.

I see a premier run blocker who can hold his own in pass protection. With the high demand for offensive line talent, I can see Fuaga as a top 15 value if Joe Alt, Olu Fashanu, and JC Latham are all off the board. My #2 right tackle.

Amarius Mims, Georgia: My lord! 6’7, 340, 36+ inch arms, 11+ inch hands. We have another planet theory all-star. Dude ran a 5.07 just to rub it in. What’s the catch?

Mims only made eight starts at Georgia, all at right tackle. He’s still learning the finer points of the job. He was great when he could win with power or by redirecting pass rushers away from his quarterback. He wasn’t nearly as good when he had to move to adjust to the rush. It’s going to be some time before we see the best of him.

Mims is just unfair when working as part of a double team in run blocking. No one was standing their ground in that situation. His power and length allowed him to seal the edge with ease. But again, he’s still learning. I wouldn’t want to ask him to pull. He wasn’t great in space. This is a case of elite power, with limited range beyond his initial spot.

Mims ceiling is absurd. He could end up developing into a first-ballot Hall of Fame tackle. Or he might struggle to adjust to the NFL and end up getting benched. He only played around 800 snaps at Georgia. Do you take him in the top 20 and gamble on his upside? Or will teams be concerned over how raw a project he is? I’m not sure, but I know I’d be willing to pull the trigger in the 15-25 range.

Tyler Guyton, Oklahoma: Excellent athletic profile. Height, weight, length, and hands are all where the NFL would like.

Guyton is a tricky prospect to judge. He played right tackle at TCU and at Oklahoma, but was protecting left-handed quarterbacks. His weight has jumped around, with some tradeoffs in his play. Oklahoma had him bulk up, which paid off in the form of more power. He was able to stand his ground in the passing game and move people in the running game. But, he lost athleticism and agility. His film at TCU was notably different from his film at Oklahoma.

Guyton’s NFL strength and conditioning coaches will need to work with his offensive line coaches to determine what build they’d like for Guyton in the NFL. My sense is that he’ll need to play faster, like he did at TCU. Even back then, he had enough power to get the job done.

Regardless, Guyton should be considered a project. He’s going to need to get better at using his hands to keep defenders off balance. With his length, he should be the one making first contact more often.

I see Guyton as a decent option late in the first round. Right now he has more potential than experience. He has the traits to eventually start at left tackle. The upside is worthy of a first-round pick.

Kingsley Suamataia, BYU: Measurables? Check. Athleticism? Check. Film? Sigh. Not great.

Saumataia was dominant in high school. He was a five star recruit, committing to Oregon before transferring to BYU. He must have picked up some bad habits because his hand placement simply isn’t good enough. The raw talent is there. The skills will need to be developed.

At his best Saumataia displayed NFL-level power. He’s shown quick feet. It would be nice if he knew where to set them to hold the edge. I expected better from Saumataia. He’s more of a project than a finished product.

In that case, we’re talking about upside. Saumatai has the gifts to develop into a starting left tackle. Right now, he has to start on the right side. He started at right tackle at BYU before moving to left tackle. That will have to be his path in the NFL as well. I wouldn’t reach for him in the first round. The risk-reward would feel a lot better for me outside of the top 40.

Jordan Morgan, Arizona: A lot of green here, but sub 33-inch arms are a potential problem. I’m torn on Morgan. The man did not miss many blocks. Morgan came back from a torn ACL that ended his 2022 season and played good ball in 2023. Good power. Nice job moving in space. Poor at making quick adjustments if the play required it.

Morgan pretty much only played left tackle at Arizona. I can’t see him doing in the NFL. A lack of reach would leave him constantly reacting to first contact from the defender. He’s not exactly a traditional right tackle either. Still, I don’t want to ignore how well he played at Arizona. He got the job done.

Medical red flags aside, I see Morgan as a decent option outside of the top 40. He’ll find a niche in the NFL.

Patrick Paul, Houston: 6’7, 331, with 36+ inch arms. That will get the NFL’s attention. Very good athlete for a man his size. Unfortunately, Paul hasn’t really learned how to use his gifts. His hands are often behind schedule. The effectively surrenders the advantage his length would give him.

His footwork isn’t great either. He should be able to close off an edge rush. Instead, he often found himself rushing to get into position.

The good news is that he still managed to get the job done. Paul’s results were admirable. He was strong enough to deny bull-rushes and wide enough to close off the edge. If he can sharpen up his technique, his upside is an elite left tackle in pass protection.

His run blocking is another story. He was poor at opening up holes. Paul often looked lost at the second level, unsure of what his responsibilities were. He was okay at sealing the edge. Overall this looks like it will never be the strength of his game.

Up to this point Paul has been able to succeed with talent. To hold down a job at the next level Paul is going to have to learn better technique. With his feet. With his hands. And he’ll need to get stronger to hold his own in the running game.

Speaking of holding, Paul has to be careful about reaching. It’s hard for him to hide it if he’s getting grabby. Quicker recognition skills against the outside rush will help here.

Paul has a lot of upside, but it’s telling that he’s still this raw after making 44 starts. Paul will turn 24 in November. He’s a potential starting left tackle, so I consider him a mid-day two value. Good look to his future coaching staff.

Dominick Puni, Kansas: Turned 24 in February. Might have to play at guard. He started at left guard for Kansas in 2022, and left tackle in 2023.

I have to tell you, I liked Puni’s film. He was rarely beaten cleanly. He was quick off the snap, regularly beating the defender to the punch. Puni moved well in space. Overall, his numbers weren’t bad.

He was an effective run blocker as well. My concern here is that his ability to block the smaller defensive lineman he faced in college will not be predictive of his ability to block larger NFL linemen. He didn’t display NFL-level power in this regard.

I’m not sure what to make of Puni. He has experience inside and outside. His pass protection skills are probably better suited to tackle right now. He might not have length, strength, and size to hold down that job. That moves him to guard, but he’ll be facing larger interior defensive linemen. Perhaps he’ll end up providing versatile depth. I like Puni as a third-round pickup. The man can play. His coaching staff will find a way to use his skills.

Kiran Amegadjie, Yale: Another dude with 36+ inch arms. It gave me some pause when Wikipedia had his birthday (February 1^st) but not his birth date. However, it appears Kiran was born in 2002 as The Athletic listed him as being 22 as of February 19^th. Whew.

Kiran dominated the competition at Yale. A quad injury prevented him from working out for scouts. He looked athletic in what film I could find. It’s a bit tricky to try and estimate what kind of impact he’ll make in the pros. It’s a large jump from playing FCS in the Ivy League. The good news is that his measurables are NFL-level. His results were excellent. He’s still learning the game, so his upside is enormous.

Kiran’s is a potential future starting NFL left tackle. He might be able to make an impact on the right side early in his career. I will note, that the one area where he didn’t blow away the competition was run-blocking in space. That might make transitioning to right tackle a bit tougher. I see Kiran as a pretty good value pickup early round three.

Roger Rosengarten, Washington: Excellent athlete, albeit undersized. Had the chance to impress scouts at the National Championship Game. He… didn’t. But that shouldn’t take away from his overall performance in 2022 and 2023 at right tackle for the Huskies. Rosengarten didn’t give up a sack. He was remarkably consistent.

Rosengarten has some issues that will need to be addressed if he’s to succeed in the NFL. He’s going to need to add a bit more power to hold his ground. Not giving up a sack is not the same as not giving up pressure. Additionally, he’s going to need better conditioning. Rosengarten had a tendency to wear down late in games.

His run blocking is not currently a strength. Rosengarten was pretty good at recognizing his responsibilities, but the power to dominate simply wasn’t there. Realistically, he’s going to fit best in an offense that wants its right tackle to excel in pass protection, without worrying about the outside running game.

I gave Rosengarten a third-round grade and after doing a full review I’m comfortable with that. In a few years he should be a competent starting right tackle. While his skill-set is more traditionally suited to the left side, I don’t think his ceiling is that high.

Blake Fisher, Notre Dame: A 2021 knee injury changed the arc of Fisher’s college career at Notre Dame. He earned the starting left tackle job, but the knee injury cost him the 2021 season. When he came back, he started at right tackle in 2022 and 2023.

If you squint, you can kind of see an NFL left tackle profile. Fisher checks of some of the boxes, so long as you don’t insist on higher tier athleticism or size. The thing about Fisher is that his film was much better than I was expecting. I loved his footwork and how well he timed his hands. Fisher demoralized some of the edges he went up against.

To be fair, sometimes they returned the favor in the running game. Fisher had a tendency to be slow off the snap. There were multiple occasions where he ended up on his ass because the defender got the jump on him. That’s not going to fly in the NFL. Overall, Fisher was only a mediocre run blocker. The power to move people was lacking. We’ll see how much more weight and strength he can add to his frame without surrendering the athleticism and agility needed for pass protection.

I gave Fisher a third-round grade, but I suspect he’ll come off the board a bit earlier than that. If a team thinks he can eventually start at left tackle in their scheme, Fisher could prove worth the investment. Alternatively, Fisher can be a nice fit at right tackle for a team that doesn’t insist on a mauler there.

Isaiah Adams, Illinois: Played both guard and right tackle for Illinois. Staying at right tackle in the NFL might be more aspirational than realistic.

I’ll be brief here. Adams does not have the pass protection skills to stay outside in the NFL. So, he’s moving to guard. Inside, his power can shine. Adams can withstand power moves, particularly if they can’t deke him, and go outside. He has the strength to move opponents in the running game.

I’d still be a little concerned about Adams in pass protection, even on the interior. He’ll need to prove he can handle the variety of moves NFL defensive lineman can throw at him. Adams might prove to be a bit of a project in that regard.

Overall I see Adams as a depth piece for an offensive line, with the potential to start inside in a few years. That makes him an early’ish day three selection for me.

Sataoa Laumea, Utah: I’m sorry man. I know you’ve made 25 starts at right tackle for the Utes, but sub-33 inch arms means it’s time to move back inside.

The film was not kind to Laumea. There were far too many plays where Laumea didn’t finish his block, giving the defender a second chance to make a play. Laumea also lacked the ability to dominate the weaker competition on Utah’s schedule.

The one bright spot on Laumea’s resume was Utah’s effectiveness running behind him. Laumea did do a nice job of making initial contact, which helped prevent negative plays. I’m not sure that skill will be enough in the NFL though.

I don’t have the time to watch every play for each prospect, so the sample I chose for Laumea might have been some of his worst games. Regardless, I did not see a future NFL starter, either at guard or tackle. Day three roster fodder.

Javon Foster, Missouri: Turned 24 in March. Foster leaned on his length to hold down the starting left tackle job at Mizzou. He did not look athletic on film.

There’s one clear improvement that Foster might be able to make at the next level. Foster had excellent upper body strength, so he leaned on that in both pass protection and in the running game. For the most part he made that work for him. If he can develop better lower body strength, and play more balanced, Foster could end up have above-average strength even by NFL left tackle standards.

Foster impressed me with his run-blocking. It’s not that he had great power. His play recognition allowed him to quickly attack his man and shield him from where the running back was going to go. It’s kind of a weird thing, but once you start noticing it, you see how consistent he was. Missouri had great trust in him when running to the left side.

The more I watched Foster, the more I felt like he might have some untapped potential. He played smart. I get it, he’s over-aged. A potential day three steal. I’d have no problem with someone picking him up in the back half of day two. Foster might end up being a reliable starter at left tackle. Even if he’s just a swing tackle, that’s not a bad value.

2024 NFL Draft: Running Backs

April 16, 2024

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Rank	Name	Position	School	Rating
36	Jonathon Brooks	RB	Texas	74.85
49	Trey Benson	RB	Florida State	72.11
68	Blake Corum	RB	Michigan	68.34
85	Jaylen Wright	RB	Tennessee	65.29
90	Will Shipley	RB	Clemson	64.31
98	MarShawn Lloyd	RB	USC	63.39
106	Ray Davis	RB	Kentucky	61.88
107	Braelon Allen	RB	Wisconsin	61.62
109	Bucky Irving	RB	Oregon	61.18
119	Audric Estimé	RB	Notre Dame	59.23

It’s a weak running back class. I’m not sure the NFL cares.

Jonathon Brooks, Texas: Only had 238 carries for 1,479 yards in his college career (16 touchdowns). He’s coming off of an ACL tear last November. Brown averaged 130 yards-from-scrimmage per game last season for the Longhorns.

Brooks generally showed good patience and vision, waiting for the hole to develop and bursting through once it did. He got the yards that were available, using a nice mix of power and evasiveness. It’s not that he’s a true power back. It’s more that he didn’t dance at the end. He was willing to take the hit to get to the sticks.

He was a reliable checkdown option (25 receptions for 286 yards). His pass protection skills are a work in progress. He’ll need to develop better technique, and show the toughness he flashed as a ballcarrier.

I can’t speak to the concerns of a medical red flag. Brooks might not be available to start the season. If he were healthy, he’d be my clear #1RB. As is, teams will have to trust their medical staffs in determining when to pull the trigger. I expect he’ll be a solid option outside of the top 50.

Trey Benson: Man, when Benson knew where to go, he was an absolute load. Benson was not the most decisive of running backs. When he did hit the hole on time, he was a threat to break a huge gain. His combine backed that up. Sub 4.4 speed gets scouts attention.

Benson gained 2,267 yards-from-scrimmage for the Seminoles over the past two seasons (24 touchdowns in 26 games). They didn’t lean on him a ton, preferring to keep him to around 3-4 touches per quarter. Like Brooks, he was mostly used on screens or checkdowns in the passing game.

Benson wasn’t used much in pass protection. That was probably for the best. He didn’t appear to have great instincts there, nor did he have much power. This is an area he’ll need to improve in to be a three-down back in the NFL.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Benson were the first back off the board. He returned a kick for a touchdown back in 2022. The dude might end up providing value in a lot of different ways. Speed kills. I’d be fine adding him outside of the top 40. Frankly, if he were to go late in the first round, I’d wince, but I’d understand it.

(Editor’s note: Benson had zero fumbles in college. Zero. His ball protection technique was textbook. That will endear him to his coaching staff.)

Blake Corum, Michigan: Undersized, but strong and agile. Corum gained 4,148 yards-from-scrimmage in his career at Michigan, scoring 61 touchdowns. Not bad, but I don’t expect he’ll match those numbers in his professional career.

First off, Corum is a liability in the passing game. He’s not much of a receiver, and his pass protection skills were terrible at the collegiate level. That means he’s pretty much strictly a ballcarrier.

Corum did a fine job of hitting the hole without hesitation. He was a menace in space, making multiple cuts to evade second-level defenders. However, he wasn’t very good at breaking tackles. The lack of power hurt in this regard.

I think Corum was a product of the Michigan offense. Corum rarely exploded through the defense. The Wolverines offensive line wore defenses down. I wouldn’t draft Corum until day three. Frankly, even then, I think there are going to plenty of options with more upside.

Jaylen Wright, Tennessee: It’s probably a good thing that college football doesn’t have fantasy football (AFAIK). Wright had 1,154 yards-from-scrimmage for the Vols last season. Only four touchdowns though.

The more I watched Wright, the more I liked him. He was consistently reliable in pass protection. He didn’t just make the block, he attacked the blitzer before he could get a pressure, let alone a sack. It’s possible that’s not textbook technique. Wright sometimes didn’t accurately recognize his blocking responsibility. That left him out of position when the rush arrived. Overall I’m grading this as a plus. Wright had the power and skills to protect his quarterback. He’ll just need to develop better recognition skills. That should come with reps.

Wright did a fine job as a receiver. Yes, it was mostly short passes and checkdowns. It’s okay for a running back to be a release valve or a hot read. Perhaps in time he’ll develop into a more refined target.

What I loved most about Wright was his explosiveness. If he got to top speed, he was a problem. Sure, there were times he gambled on bouncing the ball outside and lost yardage. He’ll learn to make better decisions. If he did find a crease, his sub 4.4 speed was visible on film. The dude looked fast. He broke some tackles with power, and some with speed. He was tough to bring down in the open field.

I put Wright just behind Benson and Brooks. Solid mid-day two value.

Will Shipley, Clemson: Nice numbers, but I should note that they came on his Pro Day, and not the combine. My sense is that Shipley is a better athlete than he is a football player. He doesn’t have the power to excel in pass protection. He was pretty good in the screen game, staying behind his blockers until he saw a lane to make a big play.

As a runner he was a bit boom-bust. It’s not just a question of making a quick decision and turning upfield. Shipley was poor at making the first man miss.

I don’t want to be too negative. Shipley gained 2,495 yards for Clemson over the past two seasons (22 touchdowns). It’s just that I definitely did not see the kind of athleticism he showed on his pro day on the film. To me, he’s a day three depth pick. Nothing more.

MarShawn Lloyd, USC: MarShawn Lloyd giveth (7+ yards-per-carry). Defenses taketh the ball away (one fumble per 29 carries at USC).

Years ago someone did a study. There’s a tradeoff between speed and ball security. You will be able to run faster with your arms extended than you can when the ball is tucked away tight. Let’s just say Lloyd likes to run fast.

Lloyd is a decent athlete. I have to say, his combination of height and weight worked for him. He broke a lot of tackles. With speed. With power. With his low center of gravity. The dude is tough to tackle.

I want to say that Lloyd isn’t much of a receiving option, but he managed to average 21 yards receiving per game at USC. He only had 13 receptions in 11 games though. It was a nice little bonus. He might be able to develop into a decent option on screens and checkdowns in the NFL. He did his best in pass protection, but his size limits his ability to shut down linebackers.

Overall I’d say Lloyd looks like a fine option near the end of day two. He’s certainly a solid day three pickup.

Ray Davis, Kentucky: Undersized, with a lot of orange and red. Not optimal.

Davis gained 1,452 yards-from-scrimmage last season at Kentucky. 21 Touchdowns. Not bad.

His size limits his effectiveness in pass protection. The effort was there though. He’ll at least get a chip in.

As a receiver he did a pretty good job of making the catch and hitting the open field. He did a nice job of evading defenders.

I don’t know how much impact Davis will be able to make in the NFL. I’m putting him on the pile of day three fungible running backs.

(Editor’s note: His full name is Re’Mahn Davis, which is how he’ll appear on some lists/websites.)

Braelon Allen, Wisconsin: If you want a larger, stronger running back, Allen has you covered. Allen rushed for 3,494 yards in three seasons at Wisconsin. His receiving skills are limited to basic dump offs and screens. He’s far from the traditional third down scatback.

His pass protection skills don’t live up to his size. I expect this is an area where Allen has significant upside. His heart was in it. His technique just needs to improve.

Allen is at his best in a one-cut scheme. He looks silly when trying to dance around in the backfield, looking for a hole. He also has some minor issues with ball security (one fumble per sixty carries) which will have to be corrected.

Allen can be the “Thunder” in a thunder and lightning backfield. I see him as a solid pickup late day two or early day three.

Bucky Irving, Oregon: Great production last season at Oregon (1,593 yards-from-scrimmage, 13 touchdowns). Absolutely terrible combine. Let’s weigh the good against the bad:

Strengths:

Aggressive running style. His strength and low center of gravity led to a lot of missed or broken tackles. Irving had a very high success rate (although Oregon’s offense deserves sum of the credit.) Irving was a good receiver, capable of breaking big plays. Only two fumbles in 398 touches at Oregon.

Weaknesses:

Small and slow isn’t what the NFL is looking for. Smaller catch radius. That was fine when Bo Nix was hitting him behind the line of scrimmage, but it might be an issue if the NFL asks him to do more than that. His size limits his effectiveness in pass protection.

I cannot justify using a day two pick on Irving. He’s a day three pickup to provide quality depth.

(Editor’s note: His full name is Mar’Keise Irving.)

Audric Estimé, Notre Dame: Gained 1,483 yards-from-scrimmage (18 touchdowns) in 12 games last season at Notre Dame. Good power, but no top-end speed whatsoever. Estimé has the build to excel in pass protection. He doesn’t have much experience there, so treat him as a work in progress in that regard.

As a receiver, he was purely a checkdown option. It’s hard to see him playing a major role here in the NFL.

When Estimé was able to build up speed directly from the handoff, he was excellent attacking the line of scrimmage. There is very little “East-West” to his game. When he had to be patient and wait for the play to develop, the results were mixed. The fewer decisions he has to make in the backfield, the better.

Estimé is another early day three value pickup if you need the skills he offers. Of course, running backs are fungible, and if you just need depth, there are always options available in the late rounds, or UFA’s.

(Editor’s note: You may have noticed that there were a lot of late day two or day three designations. That’s due to a combination of a weak class and positional value. There were only three running backs that I’d be happy to pick up before round three. None that I’d want to take in the first round.)

Special request:

Isaac Guerendo, Louisville: Earned a mid-day three grade. Absolutely awesome combine. Top speed score in the class. That might end up rocketing him up various draft boards. I’d recommend some caution.

First off, Guerendo only ran for 1,392 yards in college. That was over the course of five seasons, four at Wisconsin. It’s not like the Badgers have an aversion to running the ball.

Guerendo is a converted wide receiver who doesn’t really have the skills to excel in the passing game. For someone with that kind of athleticism, 358 receiving yards in his college career is unimpressive.

Guerendo simply did not play as fast as he tested. Perhaps a more enlightened coaching staff will find a way to unlock his true potential He posseses a truly rare mix of size and speed. But the film doesn’t lie. He’s a project with potential upside. I’m sticking with my day three grade.

2024 NFL Draft: Quarterbacks

April 15, 2024

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Rank	Name	Position	School	Rating
2	Caleb Williams	QB	USC	93.21
6	Drake Maye	QB	North Carolina	88.58
12	Jayden Daniels	QB	LSU	84.69
30	J.J. McCarthy	QB	Michigan	77.45
43	Bo Nix	QB	Oregon	73.63
61	Michael Penix Jr.	QB	Washington	69.12
111	Spencer Rattler	QB	South Carolina	60.51

This is an excellent quarterback class. We have three clear potential franchise quarterbacks. Another who appears to have charmed the NFL. Two more who have some flaws, but also might end up being premium starters. And finally, one who has been spoken of as a day three gem.

I personally feel like Williams, Maye, and Daniels all have realistic paths to greatness. After that, well… read on.

Caleb Williams, USC: In a draft with at least three potential franchise quarterbacks, Williams is a rock-solid lock to go #1 overall. Over the past two seasons the 2022 Heisman Trophy winner threw for 8,170 yards, 72 touchdowns, 10 interceptions. He’s averaged over nine yards-per-attempt in each of his three college seasons.

Williams fits the mold of a traditional gunslinger. He’s comfortable moving around in the pocket, waiting for a big play opportunity. Williams has a good sense for pressure. He has the athleticism to run, even though he prefers to buy time for his receivers. He’s also good at processing the coverage and I was generally happy with his decision-making. That he took 63 sacks over the past two seasons is a sign that he felt a lot of pressure to make big plays, and took the associated risks that come with that.

At 6’1, 214 pounds, he’s slightly smaller than the NFL prototype. However, Patrick Mahomes is 6’2, 225, so I wouldn’t worry too much.

Williams has proven to be accurate at all three levels of the field. He can throw a beautiful deep ball, hitting the spot while allowing his receiver the proper amount of time to get there. He’s comfortable throwing short as well, although his preference has been to look downfield.

There are a few concerns. The first is that he’s been playing out of a pure shotgun offense. The second is that hero ball gets a lot harder in the NFL. A lot of the gambles that paid off in college will turn into interceptions in the pros. Williams will have to adapt his style until he knows what he can and cannot get away with.

He’s also going to have to adjust to the cold. On the plus side, the Chicago Bears franchise record for yards in a season remains 3,838 (Erik Kramer, 1995). Williams should earn himself a statue if he can put up a 4,000 yard season on his rookie contract.

At his best, Williams has the arm strength, accuracy, and improvisational skills to torture defenses. No quarterback is a sure thing. Williams is the best bet from a strong draft class.

Drake Maye, North Carolina: Over the past two seasons, Maye has thrown for 7,929 yards, 62 touchdowns, and 16 interceptions. Not bad given the overall talent level around him, and the opposition. Like Caleb Williams, he’s been operating out of the shotgun and will need to make some adjustments in the NFL.

Prototype size (6’4, 223). Like Williams, Maye felt comfortable challenging defenses with his arm. Maye won’t turn 22 until August. He’s still picking up some of the finer points of the game.

Maye’s process broke down a bit under pressure. He was prone to making risky throws. His coaching staff is going to need to help him find his hot reads while he learns how to see the rush coming.

On the plus side, Maye did a nice job of running to keep plays alive. He was comfortable throwing to all three levels, particularly from a clean pocket, or when out of the pocket. His footwork was kind of awful when the pressure didn’t give him an escape valve. That’s another thing he’ll need to work on. Maye took 69 sacks over the past two seasons. That was partly due to the talent around him, and partly due to Maye’s style of play. In time, I expect him to develop a more accurate clock in his head and sense of pressure.

The biggest issue for Maye is processing speed. North Carolina tried to keep the offense simple and give him clear and obvious reads. That’s tougher in the NFL. You have to keep defenses guessing, so the offensive game plans have to be more complex. The good news is that Maye has the arm strength to beat defenses. He just needs to know where to throw the ball and when it has to get there.

Maye is a high ceiling, low floor pick. He’s going to need to tighten up his delivery. His bad habit of patting the ball is going to have to go. The good news is that he’s young. He’s still developing as a prospect. The raw talent is there. He just needs a coaching staff that can nurture his skills. The fact is, had North Carolina had a premium receiver corps, Maye could have put up eye-popping numbers.

I like Maye quite a bit. He’s my #2QB in this draft and would be my second player off the board. It’s likely that he’ll be the third player taken though.

Jayden Daniels, LSU: The 2023 Heisman Trophy winner is expected to go second overall to the Washington Commanders. 3,812 yards, 40 touchdowns, 4 interceptions. He averaged 11.7 yards-per-attempt. I get it. Right now, he’s no worse than the second best quarterback in the draft.

Daniels did a fine job working through his progressions and making proper reads. His footwork was excellent when he was allowed to step up in the pocket. Daniels deep ball was a thing of beauty, putting up absurd numbers last season. Per Mike Tanier, last season on balls of 15+ air yards Daniels was 53-of-79 (67.1%), for 1783 yards, 24 TD, 1 INT. No one else was even close.

Of course, I have to note that LSU has two of the top four wide receiver prospects in this draft. I should also mention that Daniels will turn 24 in December. He didn’t impress during his first three years at Arizona State. After transferring to LSU, he put up a 57-7 TD/INT ratio. He also ran 1,134 yards last season. He’s a premium athlete who can stress the defense with his legs.

So, why do I have Maye ahead of Daniels? In a word, upside. Daniels arm strength isn’t on Maye’s level. Despite his numbers, his deep ball isn’t optimal. It was accurate, and easy to catch, but it will also give NFL cornerbacks time to make a play.

At 6’3, 210, he’s also a bit thin. I’m not too worried about that, so long as he takes care to protect himself. It’s a bit of a concern if he tries to keep the ground game as a major part of his arsenal. SEC defenses are good, but NFL defenses are better.

Daniels also wasn’t great when forced to throw to beat pressure. When his footwork suffered, he had trouble getting the distance right. The key here is to avoid the pressure in the first place.

I expect Daniels to eventually be a very good quarterback. He’s smart, athletic, and has a good arm. What keeps him behind Maye for me (besides arm-strength) is that he has some injury risk due to his slim frame. He doesn’t have the ability to make all the throws. His floor is much higher though. Right now, he’s a better quarterback than Maye. I can’t fault Washington for taking the safer choice. Daniels might end up being a top-ten quarterback in the league on his rookie contract. Just remember, he doesn’t get to bring the wide receiver corps with him from LSU.

(Editor’s note: Neither did Joe Burrow, another Heisman Trophy-winning late bloomer from LSU. He seems to be doing fine in the NFL.)

(Editor’s note 2.0: Daniels took 65 sacks the past two seasons. Williams had to play hero ball. Maye is still learning how to deal with pressure. Daniels needs to get better at either getting the ball out of his hands, or escaping the rush and taking what he can get on the ground. He is not a man built for taking hits like that at the next level.

J.J. McCarthy, Michigan: Last season McCarthy completed 240 passes for 2,991 yards, 22 touchdowns, and four interceptions. That was over 15 games. Depending on how one views Penn State, Michigan effectively played a four game schedule, with 11 opponents that they should beat (and they did). McCarthy in the four big games:

@Penn State: 7/8, 60 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT. Michigan won 24-15.

Ohio State: 16/20, 148 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT. Michigan won 30-24.

Alabama: 17/27, 221 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT. Michigan won 27-20.

Washington: 10/18, 140 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT. Michigan won 34-13.

In aggregate, he completed 68.5% of his passes for 142 yards a game. Michigan relied quite a bit on their ground game and their defense.

So why is McCarthy expected to be the fourth quarterback off the board? I have to tell you, the more I look, the less I know.

McCarthy was an efficient passer, but a lot of his damage came via play action. He’s very well respected for his intangibles, receiving credit for helping lead Michigan on and off the field. At 6’2, 219, his build is fine, if a bit smaller than the prototype.

His arm strength got the job done in college, mostly working short-to-intermediate. I have to tell you, watching him throw, I don’t feel like I’m seeing a first-round NFL prospect. His efficiency numbers look like they are piggybacking off of the running game. If Jayden Daniels had an edge because of an absurd WR corps, McCarthy had an edge because defenses had to respect the Wolverines running game.

To be fair, McCarthy played smart. He understood how to beat zones. He wasn’t afraid of taking a hit if that meant he could buy some time for his receiver to get open. McCarthy did a fine job overall. But he wasn’t as accurate as his stats suggest. His arm strength isn’t impressive by NFL standards. And he’s not a dominant athlete.

If I had to guess, the NFL loves McCarthy’s intangibles. He brought Michigan a championship. My sense is that the NFL believes that McCarthy is physically “good enough” and mentally a premium prospect. Maybe they’re right.

I’m a McCarthy skeptic. After doing a full review, he’s QB6 for me. I would not take him round one. I sure as hell wouldn’t trade up for him. Perhaps I am missing something. I guess I’ll just have to wait and see.

(Editor’s note: McCarthy turned 21 in January. He’s still developing, which might be one of the things the NFL loves about him.)

Bo Nix, Oregon: Turned 24 in February. Last season Nix threw for 4,508 yards, 45 touchdowns, 3 interceptions. Pretty, pretty, pretty good. He was solid in 2022 as well (3,593 yards, 29 touchdowns, 7 interceptions.) He even scored 21 touchdowns from scrimmage over that time.

The main issue for Nix is he did a lot of that damage in the short passing game. Actually, Oregon’s offense threw behind the line of scrimmage over 25% of the time. Effectively, they used their short passing game as their running game.

Digging deeper, Nix’s passing chart is pretty unusual. There were deep throws, and a ton of short throws, but precious few intermediate throws. I’m honestly not sure if the Oregon coaching staff felt the risk-reward wasn’t worth it, or if it just wasn’t one of Nix’s strengths.

Speaking of deep throws, Nix had solid results, but could have been elite if not for a tendency to overthrow receivers. I got the sense it was from risk avoidance. Either the receiver gets it, or it’s incomplete. That’s not going to fly in the NFL.

Nix had a Marino-esque ability to avoid sacks, taking just 10 in the past two seasons. For comparison, Jayden Daniels took 65, Caleb Williams took 63, Drake Maye took 69, J.J. McCarthy took 31, and Michael Penix Jr. took 16. Williams, Daniels, and Maye all looked to make big plays. McCarthy was tough and was willing to risk sacks/hits. Nix said screw that and took any and all checkdowns.

At 6’2, 214 Nix has adequate size. His arm strength is decent. I get why the NFL might not be impressed with his college stats.

I see Nix as a low ceiling, high floor prospect. I mean, he’s the opposite of Drake Maye in so many ways. Where Maye is young and raw, with prototype size and arm strength, Nix is 24 with… meh. You can’t checkdown your way to touchdowns consistently in the NFL. But Nix should be no worse than an average NFL starter in a few years. That’s pretty valuable. I see him as a solid second-round value and would understand if he went as early as midway through the first round.

Michael Penix Jr., Washington: Over the past two seasons Penix threw for 9,544 yards, 67 touchdowns, and 19 interceptions. I was expecting him to grade out as a solid first-round value, just behind the elites. It broke my heart when I ran the numbers. So what happened?

The biggest issue was who got credit for the success of the passing game. So many of Odunze’s catches were marked “contested.” That means Odunze gets credit for winning “50-50” balls, and Penix gets dinged for throwing to a player who was covered. More than anything else, that dragged down his rating. There’s more though.

Penix will turn 24 in May. He had eight rushing yards in 2023. Eight. Yards. Rushing. LOL RAS giving this a 9.75.

As far as the NFL is concerned, he has two big issues.

1. Injuries. He’s torn his right ACL twice. He’ll need to pass medical inspection. I can’t speak to that.

2. His delivery. It’s nice that he can throw the ball fifty yards with a smooth motion, but he’s a bomber. In college, he relied on his receivers making contested catches. His receiver corps was great, but that’s not sustainable in the NFL.

The NFL likes rocket launchers. Penix is a grenade launcher. Can that work in the NFL?

As I mentioned, he was working with an elite receiver corps. Three of them made my top draft prospects 100, including Rome Odunze in the top 10. Penix chucking the ball to Odunze worked well in college. And yes, it did impress the scouts. They loved Odunze. Penix? Not so much.

There’s good news too though. Odd throwing style aside, Penix has an NFL-level arm. His deep balls and sideline throws were on time and on target. That they were jump balls was a conscious choice. If that’s not going to work in the NFL, he’ll do something different.

Penix generally made good decisions. He knew how to read pressure pre-snap. He could go throw his progressions on time. But here’s the rub: unlike Bo Nix, Penix wasn’t pinpoint on shorter throws. Either the NFL can fix his delivery such that he can be consistently accurate in the short-to-midrange, or they can’t.

If they can’t, he’s simply not an NFL quarterback. If they can, Penix could end up being one of the elites from this class. In that sense, Penix might be as boom-bust as Drake Maye.

When I saw Penix in college I felt like I was watching a future franchise quarterback. I still feel that way. His short passing game might never be great. He can make up for it in other ways. My eyes are telling me Penix can play. Top 20 value and my QB4.

Spencer Rattler, South Carolina: Turns 24 in September. Combine was… ugh. So why is Rattler everyone’s favorite day three quarterback prospect? Let’s make the case for him.

1. Put up decent numbers against SEC defenses: 6,212 yards, 37 touchdowns, 20 interceptions over the past two seasons.

2. NFL-level arm strength. Rattler showed touch on short-to-intermediate passes.

Rattler is the kind of quarterback where you can get him for cheap and hope he’s a competent NFL starter. But is that realistic?

I don’t actually think Rattler’s arm-strength is a plus. Penix through a beautiful deep ball. Rattler did not. I wasn’t impressed by his ability to attack the sidelines. He also had accuracy issues. I didn’t love his decision-making either.

Rattler is a hair over 6’0. He’s not a great athlete. His film didn’t inspire me. He took 71 sacks over the past two seasons. He averaged one sack for every 11.2 pass attempts. Not great!

Would I take him on day three? Sure. Probably not round four though. I see Rattler as a cheap backup quarterback to provide roster depth. I don’t think he has what it takes to succeed in the NFL.

	2024 NFL Draft Previ… on 2024 NFL Draft: Linebackers…
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	2024 NFL Draft Previ… on 2024 NFL Draft: Defensive Tack…
	2024 NFL Draft Previ… on 2024 NFL Draft: Edge Rushers
	2024 NFL Draft Previ… on 2024 NFL Draft: Centers &…

—sethburn

Football and cats. Mostly football.

2024 NFL Draft Preview: Now with links!

2024 NFL Draft: Linebackers & Safeties

2024 NFL Draft: Cornerbacks

2024 NFL Draft: Edge Rushers

2024 NFL Draft: Defensive Tackles

2024 NFL Draft: Tight Ends

2024 NFL Draft: Centers & Guards

2024 NFL Draft: Offensive Tackles

2024 NFL Draft: Running Backs

2024 NFL Draft: Quarterbacks