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Football Outsiders is currently up $1,507,184. A win in Houston would bring them quite close to the $2M mark.

Steelers -7.0 225865 230382 230382
Lions -3.0 173021 178212 0
Chiefs -10.0 0 0 0
Dolphins 1.0 6859 6791 0
Ravens -2.0 78320 74590 0
Vikings -2.5 167653 156685 0
Texans -2.5 323332 310896 0
Jaguars -7.5 35270 33590 0
Saints -7.5 138385 131795 0

ESPN’s SPI is down $524,812. They can get all of that back and more with a win in the Meadowlands:

Steelers 39275 12468 12468
Lions 9140 5713 0
Giants 195612 706161 0
Dolphins 8650 8910 0
Packers 112469 124841 0
Vikings 153724 130275 0
Texans 356920 274554 0
Browns 18041 55025 0
Redskins 28725 99390 0

They’ve shown a lot of faith in the Giants, and have been rewarded handsomely once. But only once…

 

 

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Despite Georgia’s loss, they still have a top six resume. There’s a pretty sizable gap between Georgia and USC. Ohio State’s resume isn’t particularly impressive. Losing at Iowa isn’t something an elite team should do. Oh course, then they pantsed Michigan State, but two losses are two losses.

I’m certain the top six teams on this list control their own destiny in regards to the playoff. UCF and USC almost certainly do not. There has been some discussion of Ohio State finding their way back into the playoff. They might actually be one of the top four teams in the country (I’d take them over Miami on a neutral field), but their resume isn’t  likely to finish in the top four in the final WAB standings.

Notre Dame’s second loss will likely have them on the outside looking in. They still have their work cut out for them to finish with only two losses.

Finally, yes, it’s still absurd that ESPN thinks an average top 25 team would go undefeated against Wisconsin’s schedule 28% of the time. Using the Sagarin ratings, I’m seeing it around 11% of the time. 28% isn’t even close to realistic.

Rank School WAB Top %
1 Miami FL 2.53 2.04668198%
2 Oklahoma 2.38 3.82177081%
3 Clemson 2.26 5.59445858%
4 Alabama 2.24 3.30361225%
5 Wisconsin 1.93 5.58655143%
6 Georgia 1.86 7.14959794%
7 USC 1.34 18.62499333%
8 UCF 1.20 13.01410561%
9 Notre Dame 1.19 21.00431384%
10 Oklahoma St 1.17 21.61235584%
11 Auburn 1.11 21.22788312%
12 TCU 1.06 22.09107933%
13 Penn St 0.97 23.87407798%
14 Ohio St 0.95 25.59657459%
15 Michigan St 0.83 28.62817870%
16 Washington St 0.60 35.20646789%
17 Michigan 0.54 35.71038202%
18 Memphis 0.53 33.89408754%
19 James Madison 0.43 32.12925135%
20 Mississippi St 0.19 44.42318413%
21 NC State 0.16 46.82063913%
22 Washington 0.15 47.64720538%
23 NC A&T 0.13 43.96565070%
24 Northwestern -0.01 51.41123115%
25 Stanford -0.08 53.54214873%
26 N Dakota St -0.13 59.00666025%
27 LSU -0.14 55.54301595%
28 South Florida -0.22 62.89725664%
29 Jacksonville St -0.25 63.29890714%
30 West Virginia -0.25 58.32174500%
31 Boise St -0.26 60.58209821%
32 Virginia Tech -0.33 60.81500756%
33 Iowa -0.34 59.79743293%
34 San Diego St -0.37 64.04588032%
35 Army -0.41 67.41356864%
36 Cent Arkansas -0.44 72.13432198%
37 Toledo -0.49 68.71053827%
38 South Carolina -0.51 66.61007169%
39 Wofford -0.62 81.11738530%
40 Sam Houston St -0.63 81.62561500%

Football Outsiders is sitting out the night game, despite having a moderate opinion in favor of the Broncos. That’s because their opinion wasn’t strong enough to overcome both the market lean and the vigorish. That’ll happen in the real world:

Broncos 7.5 0 0 0

As for ESPN’s SPI, no such issues:

Broncos 117738 276685 0

 

As of the time I am writing this, I have no idea what happened in the early games. Football Outsiders will be rooting for the 49ers and Cowboys in the afternoon games:

Rams -11.5 7330 7117 0
Cowboys 3.0 140897 120425 0
49ers 2.5 106249 108374 0

As for ESPN’s SPI, they are going for a huge win with the Texans:

Texans 138898 670878 0
Cowboys 187578 311380 0
Giants 100154 75304 0

At this point, we can see a clear trend that ESPN’s SPI is underrating the effect of a missing quarterback. It’s a tricky thing to take into account, but given the importance of the position, it’s a necessary one.

 

 

Football Outsiders dodged a bullet with the XP block, keeping the Seahawks ahead by 6. They ended up covering the 5.5 point spread, and now Football Outsiders are up $1,203,762 on the season. They’ll be looking to grow that, especially with the Vikings and Jaguars:

Vikings -1.0 261590 249133 0
Packers 5.5 93400 93400 0
Steelers -10.5 85895 90190 0
Jaguars -3.5 285160 259236 0
Jets 2.5 77265 70885 0
Titans -4.5 0 0 0
Saints -3.0 83689 88710 0
Browns 12.0 33160 30145 0

As for ESPN’s SPI, they are down $727,130. They are looking to get some of that back with the Packers and Buccaneers. I’m starting to suspect ESPN’s SPI doesn’t fully take into account quarterback changes. More on this with the afternoon games:

Redskins 38144 42340 0
Packers 197000 344750 0
Steelers 208810 42614 0
Chargers 38908 78983 0
Buccaneers 332560 313736 0
Bengals 0 0 0
Saints 8200 6560 0
Browns 14127 54390 0