Archive

Uncategorized

Even after a good day, it’s hard to feel positive about Nate’s chances of turning things around. It’s not that 538 is down 181.15%. It’s that they are betting sizable amounts on teams that were dead money in retrospect. It’s tough to overcome that.

Cameroon 0.5 4.09% 24.11% 0.00%
New Zealand 0.5 15.73% 32.87% 0.00%

Today he’ll need at least one underdog to pull a result to keep the positive momentum going.

Advertisements

Yesterday I learned that Thailand’s women’s team is effectively privately supported because their national federation doesn’t care to do so.

The same is true in Jamaica where Cedella Marley has supported the team:

https://www.smh.com.au/sport/soccer/how-bob-marley-s-daughter-got-jamaica-to-the-women-s-world-cup-20190614-p51xrc.html

I don’t think 538 is accurately gauging just how difficult Jamaica’s job is. On the plus side, if Japan wins, and Jamaica puts up a result, Nate’s 192.41% deficit will be erased. Good luck to the Reggae Girlz.

Japan -0.5 59.20% 42.29% 0.00%
Jamaica 0.5 31.60% 157.96% 0.00%
England -0.5 6.16% 0.57% 0.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

It feels really weird to see Australia favored over Brazil in futbol.

More importantly for Nate is to see South Africa put up a result against China. The deficit is -182.5%

Side Handicap Risked To Win Result
South Korea 0.5 16.44% 77.94% -16.44%
China 0.5 20.26% 61.56% -20.26%
South Africa 0.5 28.43% 133.45% -28.43%
Nigeria 0.5 28.53% 76.21% -28.53%
Australia -0.5 38.08% 26.82% -38.08%
Jamaica 0.5 4.41% 22.64% -4.41%
England -0.5 44.92% 12.51% 12.51%
Japan -0.5 30.00% 3.33% -30.00%
Cameroon 0.5 9.84% 45.08% -9.84%
New Zealand 0.5 20.04% 52.92% -20.04%
Sweden-Chile Draw 0.24% 1.50% -0.24%
Thailand 0.5 2.93% 134.08% -2.93%
Nigeria -0.5 0.20% 0.52% 0.52%
Germany -0.5 10.97% 12.84% 12.84%
Norway 0.5 9.18% 23.10% -9.18%
Brazil -0.5 3.01% 6.42% 0.00%
South Africa 0.5 6.90% 11.93% 0.00%

 

Nate demolished the last Women’s World Cup. This time things aren’t going so well (-186.69%, which isn’t nice). Perhaps Germany or Norway will give him his first winning day of the tournament.

Side Handicap Risked To Win Result
South Korea 0.5 16.44% 77.94% -16.44%
China 0.5 20.26% 61.56% -20.26%
South Africa 0.5 28.43% 133.45% -28.43%
Nigeria 0.5 28.53% 76.21% -28.53%
Australia -0.5 38.08% 26.82% -38.08%
Jamaica 0.5 4.41% 22.64% -4.41%
England -0.5 44.92% 12.51% 12.51%
Japan -0.5 30.00% 3.33% -30.00%
Cameroon 0.5 9.84% 45.08% -9.84%
New Zealand 0.5 20.04% 52.92% -20.04%
Sweden-Chile Draw 0.24% 1.50% -0.24%
Thailand 0.5 2.93% 134.08% -2.93%
Nigeria -0.5 0.20% 0.52% 0.00%
Germany -0.5 10.97% 12.84% 0.00%
Norway 0.5 9.18% 23.10% 0.00%

 

This is starting to get a bit comical. Nate was very confident Japan would come through for him, but it wasn’t to be. He’ll be hoping New Zealand or Thailand can produce the miracle and cut his losses (-163.48%).

Side Handicap Risked To Win Result
South Korea 0.5 16.44% 77.94% -16.44%
China 0.5 20.26% 61.56% -20.26%
South Africa 0.5 28.43% 133.45% -28.43%
Nigeria 0.5 28.53% 76.21% -28.53%
Australia -0.5 38.08% 26.82% -38.08%
Jamaica 0.5 4.41% 22.64% -4.41%
England -0.5 44.92% 12.51% 12.51%
Japan -0.5 30.00% 3.33% -30.00%
Cameroon 0.5 9.84% 45.08% -9.84%
New Zealand 0.5 20.04% 52.92% 0.00%
Sweden-Chile Draw 0.24% 1.50% 0.00%
Thailand 0.5 2.93% 134.08% 0.00%

I solved for what he would bet on the Thailand handicap line of +5 -107 (32.56% to win 30.43%), but since that’s an internal estimate, I can’t use it when there is a 3-ball line available.

Nate has not gotten off to a great start. In fact, if not for England he would be pulling an 0-fer:

Side Handicap Risked To Win Result
South Korea 0.5 16.44% 77.94% -16.44%
China 0.5 20.26% 61.56% -20.26%
South Africa 0.5 28.43% 133.45% -28.43%
Nigeria 0.5 28.53% 76.21% -28.53%
Australia -0.5 38.08% 26.82% -38.08%
Jamaica 0.5 4.41% 22.64% -4.41%
England -0.5 44.92% 12.51% 12.51%
Japan -0.5 30.00% 3.33% 0.00%
Cameroon 0.5 9.84% 45.08% 0.00%

Japan will try to keep the winning streak going, but the real hope is that Cameroon can avoid a loss against Canada. We shall see.

 

I feel for anyone who has backed Nate Silver so far this tournament. China was the better squad in the first half and should have converted. South Africa held a lead before penalties buried them.

Today Nate will be hoping Australia reverses his fortunes. Jamaica would be a nice hit, but England grabbing a win is more important.

We’ll see how things go soon enough.

Side Handicap Risked To Win Result
South Korea 0.5 16.44% 77.94% -16.44%
China 0.5 20.26% 61.56% -20.26%
South Africa 0.5 28.43% 133.45% -28.43%
Nigeria 0.5 28.53% 76.21% -28.53%
Australia -0.5 38.08% 26.82% 0.00%
Jamaica 0.5 4.41% 22.64% 0.00%
England -0.5 44.92% 12.51% 0.00%