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Monthly Archives: March 2017

ESPN’s BPI is now up $105,658. They’ll be rooting hard for the Gators to see their bankroll grow.

Gonzaga 42000 10000 10000 7
Oregon 19579 56780 56780 7
Florida 47700 30000 0 8
North Carolina 5635 4237 0 8

They are up $70,287 in the futures as well.

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ESPN’s BPI would love to see Gonzaga reach their first Final Four, but the real joy would be seeing the Ducks overcome the Jayhawks. They are currently up $38,878.

Gonzaga 2215 1342 1342 5
Oregon 13705 14390 14390 5
Purdue 13912 26293 -13912 5
Xavier 4800 14400 14400 5
Baylor 21560 13067 -21560 6
Florida 21460 16382 16382 6
Kentucky 10600 10600 10600 6
North Carolina 400 127 127 6
Gonzaga 42000 10000 0 7
Oregon 19579 56780 0 7

As for the futures, the Florida miracle victory last night was huge for ESPN. They are currently up $15,649. They’ll be rooting for Gonzaga, Oregon, Florida (especially), and North Carolina:

Gonzaga Champion 8000 57780 0
Gonzaga Final Four 18000 25550 0
Gonzaga Finalist 6000 21300 0
Xavier xFinal Four 12250 662 0
Xavier xFinalist 28500 528 0
Kansas xChamp 36500 4000 0
Kansas xFinal Four 16836 10498 0
Kansas xFinalist 18500 4000 0
Oregon Champion 2000 54000 0
Oregon Final Four 2733 9400 0
Oregon Finalist 2575 20800 0
Florida Champion 5857 131660 0
Florida Final Four 13000 51540 0
Florida Finalist 4992 42900 0
South Carolina xChamp 80000 1000 0
South Carolina xFinal Four 50000 4500 0
South Carolina xFinalist 46000 2000 0
Kentucky Final Four 2000 6740 0
Kentucky xChamp 18300 1283 0
Kentucky xFinalist 3100 337 0
North Carolina Final Four 7623 8834 0
North Carolina Finalist 8210 17255 0

 

 

ESPN’s BPI is currently up $17,108 on individual game bets. They’re showing a lot of faith in Baylor and Florida, but that’s nothing compared to the kind of faith they’ll show in Gonzaga if they face Arizona.

Gonzaga 2215 1342 0 5
Oregon 13705 14390 0 5
Purdue 13912 26293 0 5
Xavier 4800 14400 0 5
Baylor 21560 13067 0 6
Florida 21460 16382 0 6
Kentucky 10600 10600 0 6
North Carolina 400 127 0 6

The BPI is currently down $830 on futures, but that’s small change compared to the kind of swings they’re risking. They are doubling down against Arizona, Kansas, and Wisconsin. We’ll see if that backfires. They’ve reversed course on only one future: Oregon to make the final four. As far as the BPI sees it, Louisville’s loss cleared Oregon’s path enough to back them at current market prices.

For the record, if Florida wins the tournament, drinks are on Ben Alamar.

Team Prediction Risked To Win Result
Arizona xChamp 50000 4000 0
Arizona xFinal Four 20120 8000 0
Arizona xFinalist 22600 4000 0
Baylor xChamp 9000 100 0
Baylor xFinal Four 11600 725 0
Baylor xFinalist 3400 83 0
Butler Final Four 153 2175 0
Butler xChamp 43200 617 0
Butler xFinalist 25900 942 0
Florida Champion 5857 131660 0
Florida Final Four 13000 51540 0
Florida Finalist 4992 42900 0
Gonzaga Champion 8000 57780 0
Gonzaga Final Four 18000 25550 0
Gonzaga Finalist 6000 21300 0
Kansas xChamp 36500 4000 0
Kansas xFinal Four 16836 10498 0
Kansas xFinalist 18500 4000 0
Kentucky Final Four 2000 6740 0
Kentucky xChamp 18300 1283 0
Kentucky xFinalist 3100 337 0
Michigan xChamp 27200 1007 0
Michigan xFinal Four 10100 1996 0
Michigan xFinalist 16510 1417 0
North Carolina Final Four 7623 8834 0
North Carolina Finalist 8210 17255 0
Oregon Champion 2000 54000 0
Oregon Final Four 2733 9400 0
Oregon Finalist 2575 20800 0
Purdue Champion 1763 56134 0
Purdue Final Four 6000 31260 0
Purdue Finalist 1763 26000 0
South Carolina xChamp 80000 1000 0
South Carolina xFinal Four 50000 4500 0
South Carolina xFinalist 46000 2000 0
UCLA xChamp 45000 2105 0
UCLA xFinal Four 27400 6000 0
UCLA xFinalist 17500 1694 0
West Virginia Champion 3575 98900 0
West Virginia Final Four 8000 36600 0
West Virginia Finalist 3750 39000 0
Wisconsin xChamp 32400 1296 0
Wisconsin xFinal Four 31800 5000 0
Wisconsin xFinalist 52600 2500 0
Xavier xFinal Four 12250 662 0
Xavier xFinalist 28500 528 0

Today will be a very good day for them if they are right:

Team Risked To Win Result day
Butler 4060 597 597 1
Florida 44100 8018 8018 1
Florida Gulf Coast 394 2600 -394 1
Iowa State 11065 3882 3882 1
Minnesota 10750 11180 -10750 1
North Dakota 1024 15659 -1024 1
Northwestern 3548 4364 4364 1
Notre Dame 5990 2031 2031 1
Saint Mary’s 46350 24395 24395 1
Virginia 51280 15307 15307 1
West Virginia 5100 425 425 1
Wisconsin 15850 6891 6891 1
Xavier 18300 21045 21045 1
Arkansas 784 700 700 2
Baylor 13550 1594 1594 2
Cincinnati 19366 11596 11596 2
Creighton 22230 21794 -22230 2
Marquette 14489 15648 -14489 2
Michigan 22650 16413 16413 2
Oregon 32500 2321 2321 2
SMU 47830 17715 -47830 2
Texas Southern 194 13600 -194 2
Troy 241 5840 -241 2
UC Davis 62 3700 -62 2
Wichita St. 5150 2060 2060 2
Butler 19920 12450 0 3
Gonzaga 26500 4077 0 3
Purdue 23580 23816 0 3
Saint Mary’s 44557 93125 0 3
Villanova 20305 8288 0 3
Virginia 5390 6522 0 3
West Virginia 23772 17479 0 3

They are currently up $24,426. As for their futures, it’s a bit more complicated:

Team Prediction Risked To Win Result
Arizona XSweet 16 4000 5620 0
Arizona xFinal Four 12800 4000 0
Arizona xFinalist 14600 2000 0
Arizona xChamp 31000 2000 0
Arkansas XSweet 16 4600 311 0
Baylor Sweet 16 2000 2160 0
Baylor xFinalist 3400 83 0
Baylor xChamp 9000 100 0
Baylor xFinal Four 11600 725 0
Bucknell XSweet 16 39100 920 920
Butler Final Four 153 2175 0
Butler Sweet 16 2400 2000 0
Cincinnati Final Four 549 10700 0
Cincinnati Sweet 16 2000 5200 0
Dayton xFinal Four 43000 500 0
Duke xFinalist 5600 800 0
Duke Sweet 16 6000 2000 0
Duke xChamp 23600 2000 0
East Tennessee State XSweet 16 25750 1000 1000
Florida Champion 857 54000 0
Florida Finalist 992 24800 0
Florida Sweet 16 2000 2200 0
Florida Final Four 2000 28000 0
Florida State Sweet 16 1720 956 0
Florida State xFinal Four 14900 2000 0
Florida State xChamp 30700 495 0
Florida State xFinalist 37000 1721 0
Gonzaga Finalist 2000 8400 0
Gonzaga Champion 2000 17500 0
Gonzaga Final Four 6000 10260 0
Gonzaga Sweet 16 19580 4000 0
Iona XSweet 16 49500 495 495
Iowa State XSweet 16 3200 2000 0
Iowa State xFinalist 5400 129 0
Iowa State xFinal Four 7200 480 0
Iowa State xChamp 36300 403 0
Kansas xFinal Four 7776 3498 0
Kansas xFinalist 10700 2000 0
Kansas xChamp 23500 2000 0
Kansas State XSweet 16 19700 2000 0
Kentucky Sweet 16 1550 886 0
Kentucky xFinalist 3100 337 0
Kentucky xChamp 18300 1017 0
Louisville Champion 1833 33000 0
Louisville Final Four 2000 9600 0
Louisville Finalist 2000 17000 0
Louisville Sweet 16 5800 4000 0
Maryland XSweet 16 9900 2000 2000
Maryland xFinal Four 29000 500 500
Michigan xFinal Four 10100 673 0
Michigan State xFinal Four 42000 500 0
Middle Tennessee XSweet 16 8700 2000 0
Minnesota XSweet 16 2350 644 644
Minnesota xFinal Four 39100 455 455
Nevada XSweet 16 29125 1975 1975
New Mexico State XSweet 16 30500 1000 0
North Carolina Final Four 3172 3680 0
North Carolina Finalist 3682 10495 0
North Carolina Sweet 16 11780 2000 0
Northwestern XSweet 16 25500 2000 0
Notre Dame XSweet 16 4900 2000 0
Notre Dame xFinalist 26300 398 0
Oklahoma State XSweet 16 10200 2000 2000
Oklahoma State xFinal Four 25000 500 500
Oregon Sweet 16 7180 4000 0
Oregon xFinal Four 7600 1267 0
Princeton XSweet 16 28000 1647 1647
Purdue Champion 883 35300 0
Purdue Finalist 1763 26000 0
Purdue Final Four 2000 14100 0
Purdue Sweet 16 4000 4500 0
Rhode Island XSweet 16 9900 2000 0
Saint Mary’s Champion 1000 105000 0
Saint Mary’s Finalist 2000 66000 0
Saint Mary’s Sweet 16 4000 7620 0
Saint Mary’s Final Four 4000 68800 0
Seton Hall XSweet 16 11515 704 704
SMU xFinalist 13750 500 500
SMU xFinal Four 17000 2000 2000
SMU xChamp 38000 500 500
SMU Sweet 16 1109 1220 -1109
South Carolina XSweet 16 14500 2000 0
South Carolina xFinal Four 23000 500 0
UCLA Sweet 16 1155 700 0
UCLA xFinal Four 13000 2000 0
UCLA xFinalist 17500 1250 0
UCLA xChamp 43000 2000 0
UNC Wilmington XSweet 16 20000 1000 1000
USC XSweet 16 27700 2000 0
Vanderbilt XSweet 16 21000 2000 2000
VCU XSweet 16 15200 1013 1013
Vermont XSweet 16 2488 137 137
Villanova Finalist 2000 8400 0
Villanova Champion 2000 16400 0
Villanova Final Four 4949 9155 0
Villanova Sweet 16 5720 2000 0
Virginia Champion 898 39500 0
Virginia Finalist 1094 19700 0
Virginia Sweet 16 2000 2500 0
Virginia Final Four 2000 22000 0
Virginia Tech XSweet 16 13550 420 420
West Virginia Champion 1575 57500 0
West Virginia Finalist 1750 24500 0
West Virginia Final Four 2000 12300 0
West Virginia Sweet 16 3100 2000 0
Wichita State Final Four 375 5525 0
Wichita State XSweet 16 4125 1833 0
Winthrop XSweet 16 23525 729 729
Wisconsin XSweet 16 4300 956 0
Wisconsin xFinal Four 21000 1000 0
Wisconsin xFinalist 33000 500 0
Xavier Sweet 16 1117 4860 0

In terms of resolved bets, they are up $20,031, but there is a lot of equity, in both directions, still to resolve.

ESPN’s BPI is making some bold predictions for both round 1, and the tournament itself. Let’s see how they do, and hey, let’s have fun out there.

Team Risked To Win Result day
Butler 4060 597 0 1
Florida 44100 8018 0 1
Florida Gulf Coast 394 2600 0 1
Iowa State 11065 3882 0 1
Minnesota 10750 11180 0 1
North Dakota 1024 15659 0 1
Northwestern 3548 4364 0 1
Notre Dame 5990 2031 0 1
Saint Mary’s 46350 24395 0 1
Virginia 51280 15307 0 1
West Virginia 5100 425 0 1
Wisconsin 15850 6891 0 1
Xavier 18300 21045 0 1
Arkansas 784 700 0 2
Baylor 13550 1594 0 2
Cincinnati 19366 11596 0 2
Creighton 22230 21794 0 2
Marquette 14489 15648 0 2
Michigan 22650 16413 0 2
Oregon 32500 2321 0 2
SMU 47830 17715 0 2
Texas Southern 194 13600 0 2
Troy 241 5840 0 2
UC Davis 62 3700 0 2
Wichita St. 5150 2060 0 2

And here are the futures:

Team Prediction Risked To Win Result
Arizona XSweet 16 4000 5620 0
Arizona xFinal Four 12800 4000 0
Arizona xFinalist 14600 2000 0
Arizona xChamp 31000 2000 0
Arkansas XSweet 16 4600 311 0
Baylor Sweet 16 2000 2160 0
Baylor xFinalist 3400 83 0
Baylor xChamp 9000 100 0
Baylor xFinal Four 11600 725 0
Bucknell XSweet 16 39100 920 0
Butler Final Four 153 2175 0
Butler Sweet 16 2400 2000 0
Cincinnati Final Four 549 10700 0
Cincinnati Sweet 16 2000 5200 0
Dayton xFinal Four 43000 500 0
Duke xFinalist 5600 800 0
Duke Sweet 16 6000 2000 0
Duke xChamp 23600 2000 0
East Tennessee State XSweet 16 25750 1000 0
Florida Champion 857 54000 0
Florida Finalist 992 24800 0
Florida Sweet 16 2000 2200 0
Florida Final Four 2000 28000 0
Florida State Sweet 16 1720 956 0
Florida State xFinal Four 14900 2000 0
Florida State xChamp 30700 495 0
Florida State xFinalist 37000 1721 0
Gonzaga Finalist 2000 8400 0
Gonzaga Champion 2000 17500 0
Gonzaga Final Four 6000 10260 0
Gonzaga Sweet 16 19580 4000 0
Iona XSweet 16 49500 495 0
Iowa State XSweet 16 3200 2000 0
Iowa State xFinalist 5400 129 0
Iowa State xFinal Four 7200 480 0
Iowa State xChamp 36300 403 0
Kansas xFinal Four 7776 3498 0
Kansas xFinalist 10700 2000 0
Kansas xChamp 23500 2000 0
Kansas State XSweet 16 19700 2000 0
Kentucky Sweet 16 1550 886 0
Kentucky xFinalist 3100 337 0
Kentucky xChamp 18300 1017 0
Louisville Champion 1833 33000 0
Louisville Final Four 2000 9600 0
Louisville Finalist 2000 17000 0
Louisville Sweet 16 5800 4000 0
Maryland XSweet 16 9900 2000 0
Maryland xFinal Four 29000 500 0
Michigan xFinal Four 10100 673 0
Michigan State xFinal Four 42000 500 0
Middle Tennessee XSweet 16 8700 2000 0
Minnesota XSweet 16 2350 644 0
Minnesota xFinal Four 39100 455 0
Nevada XSweet 16 29125 1975 0
New Mexico State XSweet 16 30500 1000 0
North Carolina Final Four 3172 3680 0
North Carolina Finalist 3682 10495 0
North Carolina Sweet 16 11780 2000 0
Northwestern XSweet 16 25500 2000 0
Notre Dame XSweet 16 4900 2000 0
Notre Dame xFinalist 26300 398 0
Oklahoma State XSweet 16 10200 2000 0
Oklahoma State xFinal Four 25000 500 0
Oregon Sweet 16 7180 4000 0
Oregon xFinal Four 7600 1267 0
Princeton XSweet 16 28000 1647 0
Purdue Champion 883 35300 0
Purdue Finalist 1763 26000 0
Purdue Final Four 2000 14100 0
Purdue Sweet 16 4000 4500 0
Rhode Island XSweet 16 9900 2000 0
Saint Mary’s Champion 1000 105000 0
Saint Mary’s Finalist 2000 66000 0
Saint Mary’s Sweet 16 4000 7620 0
Saint Mary’s Final Four 4000 68800 0
Seton Hall XSweet 16 11515 704 0
SMU xFinalist 13750 500 0
SMU xFinal Four 17000 2000 0
SMU xChamp 38000 500 0
SMU Sweet 16 1109 1220 0
South Carolina XSweet 16 14500 2000 0
South Carolina xFinal Four 23000 500 0
UCLA Sweet 16 1155 700 0
UCLA xFinal Four 13000 2000 0
UCLA xFinalist 17500 1250 0
UCLA xChamp 43000 2000 0
UNC Wilmington XSweet 16 20000 1000 0
USC XSweet 16 27700 2000 0
Vanderbilt XSweet 16 21000 2000 0
VCU XSweet 16 15200 1013 0
Vermont XSweet 16 2488 137 0
Villanova Finalist 2000 8400 0
Villanova Champion 2000 16400 0
Villanova Final Four 4949 9155 0
Villanova Sweet 16 5720 2000 0
Virginia Champion 898 39500 0
Virginia Finalist 1094 19700 0
Virginia Sweet 16 2000 2500 0
Virginia Final Four 2000 22000 0
Virginia Tech XSweet 16 13550 420 0
West Virginia Champion 1575 57500 0
West Virginia Finalist 1750 24500 0
West Virginia Final Four 2000 12300 0
West Virginia Sweet 16 3100 2000 0
Wichita State Final Four 375 5525 0
Wichita State XSweet 16 4125 1833 0
Winthrop XSweet 16 23525 729 0
Wisconsin XSweet 16 4300 956 0
Wisconsin xFinal Four 21000 1000 0
Wisconsin xFinalist 33000 500 0
Xavier Sweet 16 1117 4860 0

 

 

Well, the results of a true Bayesian with 100% faith in those predictions. That’s a lot of belief in Florida, Saint Mary’s, and Virginia. It should be an exciting tournament.

Team Risked To Win Result
Butler 4060 597 0
Florida 44100 8018 0
Florida Gulf Coast 394 2600 0
Iowa State 11065 3882 0
Minnesota 10750 11180 0
North Dakota 1024 15659 0
Northwestern 3548 4364 0
Notre Dame 5990 2031 0
Saint Mary’s 46350 24395 0
Virginia 51280 15307 0
West Virginia 5100 425 0
Wisconsin 15850 6891 0
Xavier 18300 21045 0