WAB 2/28: Alabama vs. Nebraska revisited

Jerry Palm and Joe Lunardi have both posted brackets today. Jerry has Alabama in the first four out, while Nebraska isn’t listed at all:

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/

Joe has Alabama safely in as a 10-seed, while Nebraska is in the first four out:

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

While they may disagree on the overall field, they both agree Alabama has a better resume than Nebraska.

THIS IS INSANE!

Just going by the ratings systems the NCAA has deemed worthy of inclusion on their team sheets, Nebraska is roughly 3.15 wins ahead of Alabama. 3.15 wins! If you prefer a rate state, a bubble team should win roughly 62.03% of their games against Alabama’s schedule. Alabama has won 56.67%, which is to say they are 5.37% behind that pace.

A bubble team would expect to win roughly 66.06% of their games against Nebraska’s schedule. Nebraska has won 70.97%. They are 4.90% ahead of where we’d expect an average bubble team to be.

I understand we can’t simply use W/L records because teams play vastly different schedules. That’s why I use WAB to quantify the difference in difficulty. The fact is, in a fair system, Nebraska would be safely in, and Alabama would need to go on a run in the SEC Tournament.

However, enough about the majors. We’ll have to wait and see whether St. Bonaventure and Middle Tennessee need assistance from the committee to make it into the NCAA Tournament. We’ll know a lot more in a week.

Rank WAB	School	WAB KP	WAB Sag	WAB BPI	WAB Avg	Pythag	Rank Pythag
1	Virginia	8.14	8.32	8.57	8.34	0.9713	1
2	Michigan St.	6.98	7.41	7.46	7.28	0.9574	5
3	Xavier	7.12	7.07	7.42	7.20	0.9188	12
4	Villanova	7.15	6.86	7.43	7.15	0.9672	2
5	Purdue	6.12	6.23	6.53	6.29	0.96	4
6	Kansas	6.17	6.4	6.27	6.28	0.938	7
7	Duke	5.97	5.69	6.18	5.95	0.9632	3
8	North Carolina	5.23	4.92	5.57	5.24	0.936	8
9	Tennessee	5.12	5.13	5.25	5.17	0.9119	14
10	Auburn	4.44	4.07	4.18	4.23	0.9101	15
11	Michigan	3.91	4.21	4.43	4.18	0.9095	16
12	Ohio St.	3.95	4.02	4.41	4.13	0.9066	17
13	Gonzaga	4.05	3.64	3.77	3.82	0.9312	10
14	Clemson	3.68	3.65	4.04	3.79	0.8978	18
15	Cincinnati	3.7	3.73	3.85	3.76	0.9556	6
16	West Virginia	3.55	3.87	3.74	3.72	0.9316	9
17	Texas Tech	3.2	3.77	3.64	3.54	0.9261	11
18	Wichita St.	3.28	3.33	3.42	3.34	0.9157	13
19	TCU	2.22	2.64	2.76	2.54	0.894	19
20	Kentucky	2.6	2.32	2.7	2.54	0.8933	20
21	Miami FL	2.46	2.37	2.56	2.46	0.8688	35
22	Virginia Tech	2.22	2.09	2.37	2.23	0.8724	31
23	Nevada	2.56	1.95	2.02	2.18	0.8737	30
24	Arizona	2.22	2.34	1.7	2.09	0.8907	22
25	Creighton	1.93	1.97	2.21	2.04	0.8899	23
26	Arkansas	2.18	1.92	2.01	2.04	0.8619	37
27	Rhode Island	1.84	1.85	2.07	1.92	0.8589	38
28	Middle Tennessee	2.04	1.47	2.02	1.84	0.8326	48
29	Houston	1.56	1.43	1.9	1.63	0.889	24
30	North Carolina St.	1.54	1.38	1.9	1.61	0.8385	45
31	Nebraska	1.25	1.63	1.67	1.52	0.8056	56
32	Saint Mary’s	1.89	1.4	1.25	1.51	0.8863	26
33	Kansas St.	1.2	1.73	1.51	1.48	0.8366	46
34	St. Bonaventure	1.18	1.23	1.62	1.34	0.7946	62
35	Seton Hall	1.13	1.26	1.54	1.31	0.8699	33
36	Oklahoma	0.86	1.42	1.37	1.22	0.8484	41
37	Florida St.	1.14	1.08	1.34	1.19	0.8693	34
38	Butler	0.94	0.92	1.5	1.12	0.8916	21
39	Texas A&M	1.1	1	1.19	1.10	0.8707	32
40	Florida	1.25	0.84	1.1	1.06	0.8878	25
41	Louisiana Lafayette	1	0.57	1.05	0.87	0.806	55
42	Louisville	0.62	0.7	0.87	0.73	0.8771	27
43	Loyola Chicago	1.08	0.41	0.37	0.62	0.8099	54
44	Providence	0.37	0.33	0.81	0.50	0.7761	69
45	New Mexico St.	0.65	0.18	0.56	0.46	0.7867	65
46	Baylor	-0.15	0.5	0.61	0.32	0.8752	28
47	Texas	-0.14	0.32	0.37	0.18	0.8551	39
48	Mississippi St.	0.24	-0.01	0.06	0.10	0.7997	57
49	Missouri	0.23	0.01	-0.04	0.07	0.8417	44
50	Boise St.	0.15	-0.22	-0.21	-0.09	0.8173	52
51	USC	0.01	0.15	-0.53	-0.12	0.8471	43
52	South Dakota St.	0.06	-0.34	-0.22	-0.17	0.724	86
53	Arizona St.	-0.12	0.14	-0.56	-0.18	0.8483	42
54	Vermont	-0.36	-0.6	0.08	-0.29	0.7754	70
55	Marquette	-0.53	-0.46	0.01	-0.33	0.8264	49
56	Syracuse	-0.69	-0.57	-0.37	-0.54	0.8362	47
57	Maryland	-0.81	-0.73	-0.25	-0.60	0.852	40
58	Western Kentucky	-0.62	-1.07	-0.63	-0.77	0.7974	60
59	Oklahoma St.	-1.13	-0.6	-0.66	-0.80	0.7947	61
60	UCLA	-0.76	-0.68	-1.17	-0.87	0.8126	53
61	Utah	-0.84	-0.77	-1.29	-0.97	0.7814	66
62	Murray St.	-0.8	-1.39	-0.96	-1.05	0.7581	77
63	Notre Dame	-1.17	-1.17	-0.92	-1.09	0.8751	29
64	Georgia	-1.01	-1.43	-1.1	-1.18	0.7695	72
65	Old Dominion	-1.05	-1.56	-1.26	-1.29	0.7899	64
66	Temple	-1.65	-1.92	-1.25	-1.61	0.7493	79
67	Alabama	-1.56	-1.76	-1.57	-1.63	0.8253	50
68	LSU	-1.56	-1.7	-1.63	-1.63	0.7777	67
69	Washington	-1.47	-1.45	-1.98	-1.63	0.6816	102
70	Penn St.	-1.87	-1.77	-1.67	-1.77	0.8683	36
71	UNC Greensboro	-1.93	-2.38	-1.47	-1.93	0.6975	95
72	South Dakota	-1.71	-2.13	-2.08	-1.97	0.7666	73
73	Boston College	-2.36	-2.43	-2.1	-2.30	0.7354	81
74	Oregon	-2.24	-2.12	-2.59	-2.32	0.7989	58
75	Buffalo	-2.16	-2.46	-2.35	-2.32	0.7121	88
76	BYU	-2.16	-2.66	-2.48	-2.43	0.7609	76
77	Montana	-1.89	-2.78	-2.65	-2.44	0.6807	103
78	College of Charleston	-2.5	-2.53	-2.29	-2.44	0.6164	116
79	Indiana	-2.75	-2.43	-2.18	-2.45	0.7775	68
80	Stephen F. Austin	-2.4	-2.8	-2.53	-2.58	0.5917	127
81	Belmont	-2.38	-2.92	-2.54	-2.61	0.7324	83
82	UC Santa Barbara	-2.23	-2.78	-3.03	-2.68	0.5678	138
83	Rider	-2.59	-2.87	-2.6	-2.69	0.5824	132
84	East Tennessee St.	-2.7	-3.16	-2.24	-2.70	0.6975	94
85	UCF	-2.85	-2.9	-2.61	-2.79	0.6915	97
86	Penn	-2.96	-2.91	-2.82	-2.90	0.6164	117
87	Fresno St.	-2.75	-3.15	-3.24	-3.05	0.7624	75
88	Bucknell	-3.39	-3.35	-2.98	-3.24	0.6878	101
89	Memphis	-3.34	-3.44	-3.07	-3.28	0.5664	139
90	Furman	-3.26	-3.8	-2.95	-3.34	0.7155	87
91	Northeastern	-3.36	-3.52	-3.14	-3.34	0.6599	104
92	San Diego St.	-2.99	-3.54	-3.54	-3.36	0.7984	59
93	Wyoming	-2.99	-3.73	-3.38	-3.37	0.6041	122
94	South Carolina	-3.12	-3.71	-3.4	-3.41	0.7482	80
95	St. John’s	-3.6	-3.65	-3.22	-3.49	0.763	74
96	Lipscomb	-3.47	-3.82	-3.41	-3.57	0.4708	179
97	Tulsa	-3.73	-3.69	-3.66	-3.69	0.6416	109
98	Northern Kentucky	-3.62	-3.94	-3.53	-3.70	0.735	82
99	UNLV	-3.48	-3.92	-3.97	-3.79	0.7077	90
100	Marshall	-3.61	-4.13	-3.71	-3.82	0.5836	130
101	Georgetown	-4	-3.96	-3.63	-3.86	0.691	98
102	Toledo	-3.8	-3.94	-3.94	-3.89	0.6307	111
103	Utah Valley	-3.54	-4.24	-4.17	-3.98	0.6898	100
104	Iowa St.	-4.19	-3.98	-3.84	-4.00	0.706	91
105	Idaho	-3.52	-4.49	-4.16	-4.06	0.607	119
106	Wright St.	-3.94	-4.45	-3.92	-4.10	0.5544	144
107	Davidson	-4.15	-4.14	-4.05	-4.11	0.8229	51
108	Colorado	-4.28	-4.2	-4.63	-4.37	0.6209	114
109	Stanford	-4.24	-4.29	-4.69	-4.41	0.7008	93
110	UC Davis	-3.84	-4.74	-4.67	-4.42	0.5489	153
111	Wagner	-4.35	-4.65	-4.4	-4.47	0.4838	173
112	Wisconsin	-4.71	-4.61	-4.11	-4.48	0.7727	71
113	Northwestern	-4.81	-4.56	-4.37	-4.58	0.7553	78
114	SMU	-4.63	-4.77	-4.36	-4.59	0.7929	63
115	Minnesota	-4.84	-4.65	-4.42	-4.64	0.6899	99
116	Georgia St.	-4.81	-5.16	-4.76	-4.91	0.6557	106
117	Albany	-4.98	-5.18	-4.63	-4.93	0.5768	136
118	Nicholls St.	-4.75	-5.36	-4.83	-4.98	0.4749	177
119	UMBC	-5.14	-5.32	-4.63	-5.03	0.4174	195
120	Hofstra	-5.13	-5.35	-4.96	-5.15	0.55	152
121	Southern Illinois	-4.69	-5.66	-5.26	-5.20	0.5544	143
122	UNC Asheville	-5.2	-5.84	-4.62	-5.22	0.4555	184
123	San Diego	-4.98	-5.54	-5.5	-5.34	0.5865	129
124	Ball St.	-5.26	-5.31	-5.45	-5.34	0.5141	164
125	Wofford	-5.36	-5.81	-5.04	-5.40	0.5009	169
126	Cal St. Fullerton	-5.03	-5.64	-5.61	-5.43	0.4565	183
127	Northern Colorado	-4.76	-5.85	-5.73	-5.45	0.5775	135
128	Weber St.	-5.03	-5.87	-5.47	-5.46	0.5605	141
129	William & Mary	-5.48	-5.71	-5.38	-5.52	0.5053	166
130	Grand Canyon	-5.25	-5.79	-5.6	-5.55	0.6498	108
131	Canisius	-5.45	-5.77	-5.61	-5.61	0.5986	125
132	Connecticut	-5.82	-5.79	-5.34	-5.65	0.5101	165
133	Florida Gulf Coast	-5.56	-5.83	-5.61	-5.67	0.629	113
134	Portland St.	-5.29	-6.05	-6.05	-5.80	0.5404	156
135	Bradley	-5.33	-6.25	-6	-5.86	0.5787	134
136	Mississippi	-5.56	-6.29	-5.78	-5.88	0.6942	96
137	Southeastern Louisiana	-5.76	-6.2	-5.78	-5.91	0.3755	215
138	VCU	-6.13	-6.2	-5.92	-6.08	0.5875	128
139	Georgia Southern	-6.19	-6.61	-6.12	-6.31	0.5653	140
140	UT Arlington	-6.19	-6.68	-6.06	-6.31	0.6044	121
141	Illinois	-6.43	-6.46	-6.18	-6.36	0.7011	92
142	Illinois St.	-5.81	-6.81	-6.48	-6.37	0.5345	159
143	DePaul	-6.65	-6.39	-6.13	-6.39	0.6582	105
144	Vanderbilt	-6.17	-6.78	-6.27	-6.41	0.7278	84
145	Saint Louis	-6.48	-6.5	-6.31	-6.43	0.5828	131
146	Seattle	-6.09	-6.74	-6.57	-6.47	0.4092	199
147	UTSA	-6.26	-6.82	-6.4	-6.49	0.4541	185
148	Jacksonville St.	-6.28	-6.85	-6.49	-6.54	0.5539	146
149	Harvard	-6.66	-6.69	-6.34	-6.56	0.5443	154
150	UAB	-6.39	-6.94	-6.51	-6.61	0.6182	115
151	Georgia Tech	-6.62	-6.9	-6.39	-6.64	0.6301	112
152	Eastern Michigan	-6.51	-6.67	-6.77	-6.65	0.5052	167
153	Iowa	-6.76	-6.78	-6.42	-6.65	0.7113	89
154	St. Francis PA	-6.52	-6.86	-6.58	-6.65	0.4266	192
155	Radford	-6.65	-7.11	-6.27	-6.68	0.4682	181
156	Oregon St.	-6.68	-6.47	-7.01	-6.72	0.6543	107
157	New Mexico	-6.43	-6.93	-6.92	-6.76	0.6134	118
158	Winthrop	-6.79	-7.28	-6.45	-6.84	0.5506	150
159	Wake Forest	-6.88	-7.28	-6.63	-6.93	0.7277	85
160	Sam Houston St.	-6.73	-7.25	-6.9	-6.96	0.3829	210
161	Tulane	-7.06	-7.1	-6.85	-7.00	0.526	161
162	San Francisco	-6.73	-7.32	-7.1	-7.05	0.5514	148
163	Navy	-7.32	-7.36	-6.93	-7.20	0.3971	204
164	Eastern Washington	-6.52	-7.66	-7.44	-7.21	0.5384	158
165	Niagara	-7.27	-7.34	-7.13	-7.25	0.4156	198
166	Northern Iowa	-6.92	-7.58	-7.27	-7.26	0.5998	124
167	Austin Peay	-7.06	-7.65	-7.14	-7.28	0.4038	202
168	Oakland	-7.19	-7.46	-7.23	-7.29	0.5177	163
169	Utah St.	-6.99	-7.72	-7.32	-7.34	0.5541	145
170	Tennessee Tech	-7.22	-7.82	-7.21	-7.42	0.3569	225
171	Hawaii	-7.17	-7.67	-7.49	-7.44	0.3654	222
172	Mercer	-7.35	-7.93	-7.12	-7.47	0.6046	120
173	Iona	-7.41	-7.69	-7.31	-7.47	0.5981	126
174	Evansville	-7.18	-8	-7.75	-7.64	0.5388	157
175	Rutgers	-7.87	-7.74	-7.38	-7.66	0.5595	142
176	Fort Wayne	-7.54	-8.06	-7.6	-7.73	0.5209	162
177	Louisiana Monroe	-7.92	-8.26	-7.6	-7.93	0.3579	223
178	Missouri St.	-7.4	-8.43	-8.17	-8.00	0.6334	110
179	Drake	-7.5	-8.25	-8.25	-8.00	0.4957	170
180	Yale	-8.18	-8.09	-7.82	-8.03	0.4878	172
181	UC Irvine	-7.47	-8.37	-8.39	-8.08	0.5816	133
182	Lamar	-7.93	-8.29	-8.17	-8.13	0.4392	188
183	Colgate	-8.24	-8.27	-7.95	-8.15	0.4173	196
184	Saint Joseph’s	-8.33	-8.25	-7.95	-8.18	0.6021	123
185	Dayton	-8.27	-8.4	-7.99	-8.22	0.552	147
186	Western Michigan	-8.02	-8.36	-8.39	-8.26	0.4707	180
187	Louisiana Tech	-8.04	-8.76	-8.31	-8.37	0.551	149
188	Hartford	-8.32	-8.72	-8.11	-8.38	0.3439	230
189	Savannah St.	-8.36	-8.76	-8.16	-8.43	0.1665	325
190	Towson	-8.45	-8.64	-8.32	-8.47	0.5751	137
191	George Washington	-8.83	-8.7	-8.32	-8.62	0.4378	189
192	North Carolina A&T	-8.47	-8.79	-8.59	-8.62	0.2073	299
193	Tennessee St.	-8.54	-8.98	-8.43	-8.65	0.3879	208
194	Lehigh	-8.81	-8.82	-8.48	-8.70	0.3781	213
195	George Mason	-8.82	-8.87	-8.58	-8.76	0.3932	206
196	Washington St.	-8.76	-8.84	-9.41	-9.00	0.4427	187
197	New Orleans	-8.93	-9.36	-8.91	-9.07	0.2878	257
198	Central Michigan	-8.93	-9.17	-9.28	-9.13	0.4759	176
199	Mount St. Mary’s	-9.11	-9.36	-9.18	-9.22	0.3306	233
200	North Texas	-8.98	-9.51	-9.35	-9.28	0.4085	200
201	Liberty	-9.24	-9.83	-8.96	-9.34	0.4776	175
202	Illinois Chicago	-9.28	-9.62	-9.33	-9.41	0.4079	201
203	Denver	-9.05	-9.71	-9.5	-9.42	0.3816	212
204	Pacific	-9.13	-9.74	-9.67	-9.51	0.4732	178
205	Duquesne	-9.55	-9.48	-9.51	-9.51	0.4502	186
206	Miami OH	-9.34	-9.67	-9.67	-9.56	0.4207	193
207	Valparaiso	-9.12	-9.83	-9.76	-9.57	0.5504	151
208	UT Rio Grande Valley	-9.37	-9.86	-9.7	-9.64	0.2796	261
209	Cornell	-9.71	-9.85	-9.43	-9.66	0.2761	264
210	Princeton	-9.71	-9.83	-9.58	-9.71	0.4657	182
211	Bowling Green	-9.56	-9.91	-9.72	-9.73	0.3451	229
212	La Salle	-10.04	-9.88	-9.44	-9.79	0.5442	155
213	Kent St.	-9.6	-10.01	-9.8	-9.80	0.4013	203
214	Fairfield	-9.77	-10.13	-9.68	-9.86	0.3673	218
215	Troy	-9.77	-10.27	-9.64	-9.89	0.4791	174
216	Brown	-10.16	-9.99	-9.82	-9.99	0.2939	251
217	North Dakota St.	-9.8	-10.39	-10.17	-10.12	0.5031	168
218	Cal St. Bakersfield	-9.8	-10.53	-10.1	-10.14	0.3196	238
219	Long Beach St.	-9.77	-10.29	-10.51	-10.19	0.3668	219
220	Indiana St.	-9.69	-10.64	-10.29	-10.21	0.5297	160
221	Hampton	-10.12	-10.38	-10.15	-10.22	0.2998	247
222	Idaho St.	-9.81	-10.57	-10.3	-10.23	0.2794	262
223	Central Arkansas	-10.11	-10.41	-10.39	-10.30	0.3825	211
224	Pittsburgh	-10.35	-10.54	-10.05	-10.31	0.3421	231
225	Grambling St.	-10.28	-10.54	-10.39	-10.40	0.1857	313
226	Southern	-10.43	-10.49	-10.44	-10.45	0.1708	322
227	Southern Miss	-10.19	-10.99	-10.39	-10.52	0.3016	244
228	South Alabama	-10.44	-10.85	-10.29	-10.53	0.3728	217
229	Colorado St.	-10.33	-10.84	-10.77	-10.65	0.3664	220
230	Campbell	-10.61	-11.07	-10.3	-10.66	0.3846	209
231	Charleston Southern	-10.64	-11.11	-10.25	-10.67	0.3064	240
232	North Florida	-10.61	-10.88	-10.61	-10.70	0.2313	283
233	Bethune Cookman	-10.56	-10.76	-10.91	-10.74	0.2041	303
234	Western Illinois	-10.57	-11.01	-10.78	-10.79	0.2174	292
235	Southern Utah	-10.39	-11.16	-11.02	-10.86	0.2184	291
236	Ohio	-10.67	-11.05	-10.9	-10.87	0.4157	197
237	Western Carolina	-11	-11.5	-10.5	-11.00	0.2052	301
238	Air Force	-10.71	-11.25	-11.17	-11.04	0.2871	258
239	Texas Southern	-10.94	-11.18	-11.03	-11.05	0.2936	253
240	Abilene Christian	-10.89	-11.29	-11.04	-11.07	0.2706	267
241	East Carolina	-11.18	-11.17	-10.92	-11.09	0.2146	295
242	Gardner Webb	-11.12	-11.65	-10.71	-11.16	0.2816	260
243	Florida Atlantic	-10.97	-11.4	-11.13	-11.17	0.3005	245
244	Elon	-11.05	-11.5	-11.01	-11.19	0.3349	232
245	Boston University	-11.35	-11.37	-10.97	-11.23	0.3249	236
246	Richmond	-11.36	-11.54	-10.93	-11.28	0.4316	191
247	Robert Morris	-11.06	-11.62	-11.22	-11.30	0.2973	249
248	Prairie View A&M	-11.06	-11.43	-11.41	-11.30	0.2438	278
249	Coastal Carolina	-11.38	-11.83	-11.21	-11.47	0.4175	194
250	Manhattan	-11.47	-11.59	-11.45	-11.50	0.393	207
251	Milwaukee	-11.54	-11.75	-11.38	-11.56	0.3741	216
252	Massachusetts	-11.71	-11.57	-11.59	-11.62	0.436	190
253	Montana St.	-11	-12.1	-11.81	-11.64	0.2739	265
254	Texas St.	-11.54	-12.11	-11.53	-11.73	0.3655	221
255	NJIT	-11.77	-11.9	-11.69	-11.79	0.2946	250
256	North Dakota	-11.34	-12.49	-12.02	-11.95	0.2575	271
257	Appalachian St.	-11.97	-12.19	-11.74	-11.97	0.3756	214
258	McNeese St.	-11.89	-12.42	-12	-12.10	0.1995	306
259	Akron	-12.01	-12.19	-12.12	-12.11	0.2916	255
260	Loyola Marymount	-11.82	-12.32	-12.24	-12.13	0.3224	237
261	Columbia	-12.44	-12.43	-12.06	-12.31	0.3952	205
262	High Point	-12.27	-12.82	-11.96	-12.35	0.3519	228
263	FIU	-12.19	-12.71	-12.46	-12.45	0.2985	248
264	North Carolina Central	-12.3	-12.57	-12.56	-12.48	0.1967	307
265	Saint Peter’s	-12.51	-12.64	-12.41	-12.52	0.3545	226
266	Santa Clara	-12.24	-12.8	-12.55	-12.53	0.2772	263
267	Fairleigh Dickinson	-12.47	-12.76	-12.37	-12.53	0.2438	277
268	Stony Brook	-12.59	-12.82	-12.22	-12.54	0.357	224
269	Southeast Missouri St.	-12.27	-12.94	-12.48	-12.56	0.273	266
270	Fordham	-12.78	-12.69	-12.37	-12.61	0.2606	270
271	Oral Roberts	-12.4	-12.9	-12.6	-12.63	0.3035	242
272	Monmouth	-12.7	-12.86	-12.47	-12.68	0.4927	171
273	Jacksonville	-12.64	-12.93	-12.77	-12.78	0.1655	326
274	Northern Illinois	-12.83	-12.96	-12.95	-12.91	0.3002	246
275	IUPUI	-12.85	-13.13	-12.77	-12.92	0.2333	282
276	Eastern Illinois	-12.65	-13.34	-12.78	-12.92	0.2908	256
277	UTEP	-12.57	-13.32	-12.94	-12.94	0.3051	241
278	California	-13.05	-12.99	-13.38	-13.14	0.3299	234
279	Jackson St.	-13.09	-13.36	-13.03	-13.16	0.1094	338
280	Central Connecticut	-12.97	-13.41	-13.13	-13.17	0.1927	309
281	Delaware	-13.15	-13.39	-13.02	-13.19	0.3021	243
282	Texas A&M Corpus Chris	-13	-13.5	-13.24	-13.25	0.1868	312
283	LIU Brooklyn	-13.2	-13.63	-13.28	-13.37	0.2696	268
284	Norfolk St.	-13.17	-13.63	-13.32	-13.37	0.1917	311
285	UMass Lowell	-13.37	-13.7	-13.09	-13.39	0.2266	286
286	St. Francis NY	-13.47	-13.78	-13.43	-13.56	0.2075	298
287	Army	-13.65	-13.74	-13.36	-13.58	0.3096	239
288	Alcorn St.	-13.65	-13.69	-13.64	-13.66	0.1119	337
289	Portland	-13.53	-13.99	-13.82	-13.78	0.2656	269
290	Nebraska Omaha	-13.5	-14.04	-13.8	-13.78	0.2567	273
291	Drexel	-13.79	-14.06	-13.59	-13.81	0.2938	252
292	UMKC	-13.51	-14.3	-13.73	-13.85	0.2237	290
293	Morgan St.	-13.92	-14.05	-13.92	-13.96	0.1691	323
294	Green Bay	-13.86	-14.14	-13.9	-13.97	0.2848	259
295	The Citadel	-14.21	-14.77	-13.7	-14.23	0.1846	314
296	Holy Cross	-14.42	-14.38	-13.96	-14.25	0.2263	288
297	Arkansas St.	-14.15	-14.55	-14.07	-14.26	0.2574	272
298	South Carolina St.	-14.2	-14.48	-14.09	-14.26	0.0876	342
299	Samford	-14.22	-14.98	-13.93	-14.38	0.2499	275
300	UNC Wilmington	-14.3	-14.77	-14.14	-14.40	0.3258	235
301	South Florida	-14.44	-14.58	-14.36	-14.46	0.1833	316
302	SIU Edwardsville	-14.35	-14.98	-14.44	-14.59	0.1774	320
303	Dartmouth	-14.74	-14.8	-14.37	-14.64	0.2466	276
304	Cal Poly	-14.28	-14.79	-14.92	-14.66	0.1845	315
305	Eastern Kentucky	-14.36	-15.17	-14.52	-14.68	0.2303	284
306	Kennesaw St.	-14.62	-14.92	-14.59	-14.71	0.2041	304
307	VMI	-14.81	-15.35	-14.3	-14.82	0.1235	332
308	Morehead St.	-14.81	-15.43	-14.72	-14.99	0.2358	281
309	UC Riverside	-14.68	-15.54	-15.48	-15.23	0.2428	279
310	New Hampshire	-15.31	-15.67	-15.07	-15.35	0.2931	254
311	Arkansas Pine Bluff	-15.3	-15.66	-15.54	-15.50	0.1237	331
312	Quinnipiac	-15.44	-15.77	-15.37	-15.53	0.2265	287
313	James Madison	-15.63	-16.02	-15.57	-15.74	0.3543	227
314	Incarnate Word	-15.62	-16.07	-15.7	-15.80	0.0984	339
315	Binghamton	-16.05	-16.48	-15.88	-16.14	0.2254	289
316	Lafayette	-16.32	-16.29	-15.87	-16.16	0.2552	274
317	Presbyterian	-16.09	-16.82	-15.65	-16.19	0.1282	330
318	Tennessee Martin	-16.13	-16.69	-16.29	-16.37	0.2157	293
319	Stetson	-16.21	-16.59	-16.31	-16.37	0.1788	319
320	Alabama St.	-16.49	-16.71	-16.4	-16.53	0.0949	340
321	Cleveland St.	-16.55	-16.74	-16.45	-16.58	0.193	308
322	Charlotte	-16.53	-17.13	-16.64	-16.77	0.1814	318
323	Loyola MD	-16.94	-16.91	-16.56	-16.80	0.1816	317
324	Chattanooga	-16.88	-17.6	-16.65	-17.04	0.2121	297
325	Sacred Heart	-16.91	-17.26	-16.96	-17.04	0.1999	305
326	Rice	-16.96	-17.62	-17.21	-17.26	0.207	300
327	Houston Baptist	-17.12	-17.53	-17.16	-17.27	0.1484	329
328	Siena	-17.31	-17.57	-17.11	-17.33	0.2292	285
329	Florida A&M	-17.2	-17.54	-17.27	-17.34	0.0835	343
330	Youngstown St.	-17.15	-17.7	-17.25	-17.37	0.1675	324
331	Detroit	-17.26	-17.66	-17.2	-17.37	0.1921	310
332	Sacramento St.	-16.71	-17.87	-17.56	-17.38	0.2156	294
333	San Jose St.	-17.01	-17.67	-17.53	-17.40	0.2142	296
334	Pepperdine	-17.31	-17.95	-17.71	-17.66	0.2399	280
335	Cal St. Northridge	-17.37	-18.23	-18.33	-17.98	0.1495	328
336	Howard	-17.88	-18.14	-17.94	-17.99	0.1196	334
337	Little Rock	-17.9	-18.54	-17.97	-18.14	0.2046	302
338	Maryland Eastern Shore	-18.48	-18.67	-18.28	-18.48	0.043	349
339	Northern Arizona	-18.07	-18.97	-18.76	-18.60	0.1193	335
340	Northwestern St.	-18.51	-18.73	-18.64	-18.63	0.0606	347
341	American	-19.2	-19.31	-18.77	-19.09	0.1503	327
342	Marist	-19.15	-19.53	-19.17	-19.28	0.1732	321
343	Coppin St.	-19.27	-19.36	-19.3	-19.31	0.0648	345
344	USC Upstate	-19.73	-19.99	-19.61	-19.78	0.1148	336
345	Maine	-19.79	-20.16	-19.53	-19.83	0.1213	333
346	Chicago St.	-19.97	-20.45	-20.11	-20.18	0.0578	348
347	Longwood	-20.37	-20.94	-19.93	-20.41	0.0787	344
348	Mississippi Valley St.	-20.78	-21.12	-20.98	-20.96	0.0626	346
349	Alabama A&M	-22.31	-22.54	-22.51	-22.45	0.0354	351
350	Bryant	-22.86	-23.26	-22.82	-22.98	0.0937	341
351	Delaware St.	-23.21	-23.58	-23.28	-23.36	0.0384	350

WAB 2/27: Down goes Duke!

I won’t have time to run all the WAB’s today, so just running the KenPom-WAB’s. Duke’s loss last night keeps them away from the #1 line, and should drop they’re pythag’s a bit.

Rank	School	WAB
1	Virginia	8.33
2	Xavier	7.19
3	Villanova	7.18
4	Michigan St.	7.13
5	Kansas	6.29
6	Purdue	6.22
7	Duke	6.05
8	North Carolina	5.95
9	Auburn	4.97
10	Tennessee	4.72
11	Gonzaga	4.09
12	Ohio St.	4.08
13	Michigan	4.02
14	Cincinnati	3.81
15	Clemson	3.76
16	West Virginia	3.64
17	Wichita St.	3.37
18	Texas Tech	3.32
19	Rhode Island	2.87
20	Nevada	2.76
21	Kentucky	2.73
22	Arizona	2.37
23	Virginia Tech	2.31
24	Middle Tennessee	2.16
25	TCU	2.04
26	Saint Mary’s	1.98
27	Creighton	1.86
28	Arkansas	1.85
29	Miami FL	1.75
30	Houston	1.65
31	Kansas St.	1.63
32	North Carolina St.	1.62
33	Nebraska	1.34
34	Seton Hall	1.32
35	Oklahoma	1.29
36	Texas A&M	1.22
37	Loyola Chicago	1.18
38	Florida St.	1.18
39	Louisiana Lafayette	1.09
40	St. Bonaventure	1.06
41	Butler	1.05
42	Mississippi St.	0.87
43	Florida	0.79
44	Louisville	0.71
45	New Mexico St.	0.71
46	Boise St.	0.69
47	Providence	0.54
48	USC	0.16
49	South Dakota St.	0.16
50	Texas	0.00
51	Arizona St.	-0.01
52	Missouri	-0.03
53	Vermont	-0.32
54	Baylor	-0.38
55	Marquette	-0.40
56	Western Kentucky	-0.53
57	Syracuse	-0.61
58	UCLA	-0.68
59	Murray St.	-0.70
60	Maryland	-0.71
61	Alabama	-0.72
62	Utah	-0.73
63	Georgia	-0.90
64	Old Dominion	-0.94
65	Notre Dame	-1.03
66	Washington	-1.36
67	LSU	-1.41
68	Oklahoma St.	-1.46
69	Temple	-1.55
70	South Dakota	-1.62
71	Penn St.	-1.75
72	Montana	-1.82
73	UNC Greensboro	-1.85
74	BYU	-2.04
75	Oregon	-2.09
76	Buffalo	-2.10
77	UC Santa Barbara	-2.16
78	Boston College	-2.28
79	Belmont	-2.28
80	Stephen F. Austin	-2.32
81	College of Charleston	-2.35
82	Rider	-2.49
83	East Tennessee St.	-2.60
84	Indiana	-2.64
85	Fresno St.	-2.67
86	UCF	-2.72
87	Wyoming	-2.89
88	Penn	-2.96
89	South Carolina	-2.96
90	Furman	-3.19
91	San Diego St.	-3.20
92	Memphis	-3.20
93	Northeastern	-3.26
94	Bucknell	-3.35
95	UNLV	-3.37
96	Lipscomb	-3.38
97	Iowa St.	-3.40
98	Idaho	-3.43
99	Utah Valley	-3.48
100	St. John’s	-3.54
101	Northern Kentucky	-3.56
102	Marshall	-3.56
103	Davidson	-3.56
104	Tulsa	-3.63
105	UC Davis	-3.77
106	Toledo	-3.88
107	Wright St.	-3.88
108	Georgetown	-3.90
109	Stanford	-4.14
110	Colorado	-4.16
111	Wagner	-4.29
112	Ball St.	-4.46
113	SMU	-4.52
114	Southern Illinois	-4.56
115	Wisconsin	-4.60
116	Northern Colorado	-4.68
117	Northwestern	-4.68
118	Nicholls St.	-4.70
119	Minnesota	-4.71
120	Georgia St.	-4.72
121	San Diego	-4.91
122	Albany	-4.94
123	Weber St.	-4.96
124	Cal St. Fullerton	-4.97
125	UNC Asheville	-5.01
126	Hofstra	-5.02
127	Grand Canyon	-5.20
128	Bradley	-5.21
129	Portland St.	-5.21
130	UMBC	-5.24
131	Wofford	-5.25
132	Canisius	-5.34
133	William & Mary	-5.36
134	Vanderbilt	-5.39
135	Florida Gulf Coast	-5.42
136	Mississippi	-5.42
137	Illinois St.	-5.64
138	Southeastern Louisiana	-5.69
139	Connecticut	-5.72
140	VCU	-6.00
141	Seattle	-6.03
142	UT Arlington	-6.06
143	Georgia Southern	-6.10
144	UTSA	-6.15
145	Jacksonville St.	-6.16
146	DePaul	-6.26
147	UAB	-6.28
148	Illinois	-6.31
149	New Mexico	-6.32
150	Saint Louis	-6.34
151	Eastern Washington	-6.43
152	St. Francis PA	-6.48
153	Radford	-6.53
154	Georgia Tech	-6.56
155	Oregon St.	-6.59
156	Iowa	-6.61
157	Harvard	-6.64
158	San Francisco	-6.65
159	Eastern Michigan	-6.66
160	Winthrop	-6.68
161	Sam Houston St.	-6.70
162	Northern Iowa	-6.77
163	Wake Forest	-6.81
164	Utah St.	-6.86
165	Tulane	-6.96
166	Austin Peay	-6.97
167	Western Michigan	-7.04
168	Evansville	-7.05
169	Hawaii	-7.12
170	Oakland	-7.14
171	Niagara	-7.15
172	Tennessee Tech	-7.15
173	Mercer	-7.23
174	Iona	-7.26
175	Missouri St.	-7.27
176	Navy	-7.29
177	Hartford	-7.33
178	Drake	-7.36
179	UC Irvine	-7.37
180	Fort Wayne	-7.45
181	Rutgers	-7.77
182	Louisiana Monroe	-7.84
183	Lamar	-7.87
184	Louisiana Tech	-7.90
185	Dayton	-8.04
186	Yale	-8.14
187	Colgate	-8.20
188	Savannah St.	-8.32
189	Towson	-8.36
190	North Carolina A&T	-8.42
191	Miami OH	-8.42
192	Tennessee St.	-8.45
193	Bowling Green	-8.69
194	George Washington	-8.70
195	Washington St.	-8.71
196	George Mason	-8.73
197	Lehigh	-8.76
198	New Orleans	-8.86
199	North Texas	-8.87
200	Saint Joseph’s	-8.91
201	Denver	-8.96
202	Valparaiso	-8.97
203	Central Michigan	-8.98
204	Pacific	-9.03
205	Mount St. Mary’s	-9.07
206	Liberty	-9.14
207	Illinois Chicago	-9.20
208	UT Rio Grande Valley	-9.31
209	Duquesne	-9.46
210	Indiana St.	-9.54
211	Kent St.	-9.60
212	North Dakota St.	-9.66
213	Fairfield	-9.67
214	Cornell	-9.69
215	Troy	-9.69
216	Long Beach St.	-9.70
217	Princeton	-9.73
218	Idaho St.	-9.75
219	Cal St. Bakersfield	-9.76
220	La Salle	-9.86
221	Brown	-10.05
222	Central Arkansas	-10.05
223	Southern Miss	-10.05
224	Hampton	-10.06
225	Grambling St.	-10.21
226	Colorado St.	-10.22
227	Pittsburgh	-10.29
228	Southern Utah	-10.33
229	South Alabama	-10.36
230	Southern	-10.39
231	Western Illinois	-10.48
232	Campbell	-10.51
233	North Florida	-10.51
234	Bethune Cookman	-10.52
235	Charleston Southern	-10.56
236	Air Force	-10.60
237	Ohio	-10.69
238	Abilene Christian	-10.82
239	Florida Atlantic	-10.87
240	Western Carolina	-10.87
241	Texas Southern	-10.93
242	Elon	-10.95
243	Montana St.	-10.95
244	Robert Morris	-10.98
245	Prairie View A&M	-11.00
246	Gardner Webb	-11.04
247	East Carolina	-11.10
248	Richmond	-11.21
249	High Point	-11.24
250	North Dakota	-11.29
251	Coastal Carolina	-11.29
252	Boston University	-11.32
253	Manhattan	-11.36
254	Akron	-11.39
255	Milwaukee	-11.43
256	Texas St.	-11.45
257	Massachusetts	-11.54
258	NJIT	-11.69
259	Loyola Marymount	-11.73
260	McNeese St.	-11.84
261	Appalachian St.	-11.84
262	Northern Illinois	-11.91
263	FIU	-12.10
264	Santa Clara	-12.15
265	Southeast Missouri St.	-12.18
266	North Carolina Central	-12.24
267	Oral Roberts	-12.31
268	Fairleigh Dickinson	-12.41
269	Columbia	-12.41
270	Saint Peter’s	-12.41
271	UTEP	-12.47
272	Stony Brook	-12.49
273	Jacksonville	-12.56
274	Eastern Illinois	-12.57
275	Monmouth	-12.60
276	Army	-12.67
277	Fordham	-12.69
278	IUPUI	-12.75
279	Central Connecticut	-12.88
280	California	-12.96
281	Texas A&M Corpus Chris	-12.96
282	Delaware	-13.04
283	Jackson St.	-13.05
284	Norfolk St.	-13.09
285	LIU Brooklyn	-13.15
286	Nebraska Omaha	-13.37
287	Portland	-13.38
288	St. Francis NY	-13.41
289	UMass Lowell	-13.42
290	UMKC	-13.45
291	Alcorn St.	-13.61
292	Drexel	-13.68
293	Green Bay	-13.73
294	Morgan St.	-13.87
295	Arkansas St.	-14.08
296	The Citadel	-14.10
297	Samford	-14.12
298	South Carolina St.	-14.13
299	UNC Wilmington	-14.19
300	Cal Poly	-14.22
301	Eastern Kentucky	-14.27
302	Holy Cross	-14.30
303	SIU Edwardsville	-14.30
304	New Hampshire	-14.31
305	South Florida	-14.36
306	Kennesaw St.	-14.54
307	UC Riverside	-14.61
308	Dartmouth	-14.68
309	Morehead St.	-14.71
310	VMI	-14.72
311	Presbyterian	-15.14
312	Arkansas Pine Bluff	-15.23
313	Binghamton	-15.31
314	Quinnipiac	-15.34
315	James Madison	-15.55
316	Incarnate Word	-15.59
317	Tennessee Martin	-16.01
318	Stetson	-16.12
319	Lafayette	-16.30
320	Alabama St.	-16.39
321	Charlotte	-16.43
322	Cleveland St.	-16.46
323	Sacramento St.	-16.66
324	Chattanooga	-16.78
325	Sacred Heart	-16.85
326	Rice	-16.85
327	San Jose St.	-16.90
328	Loyola MD	-16.93
329	Houston Baptist	-17.03
330	Youngstown St.	-17.05
331	Florida A&M	-17.08
332	Detroit	-17.17
333	Siena	-17.20
334	Pepperdine	-17.23
335	Cal St. Northridge	-17.30
336	Little Rock	-17.77
337	Howard	-17.85
338	Northern Arizona	-18.00
339	American	-18.24
340	Maryland Eastern Shore	-18.40
341	Northwestern St.	-18.43
342	Maine	-19.04
343	Marist	-19.07
344	Coppin St.	-19.23
345	USC Upstate	-19.63
346	Chicago St.	-19.86
347	Longwood	-20.40
348	Mississippi Valley St.	-20.73
349	Alabama A&M	-22.20
350	Bryant	-22.76
351	Delaware St.	-23.14

WAB 2/26: Nebraska vs. Arizona State

Nebraska beat Penn State yesterday to move up to 33rd in the WAB standings. They still seem to be on the outside looking in as far as an NCAA Tournament bid goes:

Nebraska finished 13-5 in the Big Ten and still probably has almost no shot at an at-large bid. That’s how bad the B1G was this year.

— Stewart Mandel (@slmandel) February 26, 2018

Lunardi has them out for the moment. They will likely face Michigan this Friday at MSG:

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Would a win against Michigan, followed by a loss to Michigan State, be enough to get them in? I have absolutely no idea. I can tell you that their implied Pythag of .8863 is rather impressive.

Arizona State appears to be safely in, despite an implied Pythag of .8437. It appears life really is easier out west.

No way of overcoming it if you view the world through RPI-colored glasses. BPI SOR and WAB obviously tell a different tale. KepPom has the Big Ten as the 5th best conference, miles ahead of the Pac 12. Selection Sunday is going to be brutal.

— Seth Burn (@SethBurn) February 26, 2018

Scott Van Pelt nailed the reasoning that is going to destroy the Big 10 on Selection Sunday. The truth is, Nebraska’s resume really is fairly impressive, but it won’t be viewed as such due to how the committee operates.

Rank WAB	School	WAB KP	WAB Sag	WAB BPI	WAB Avg	Pythag	Rank Pythag
1	Virginia	8.24	8.25	8.61	8.37	0.9706	1
2	Michigan St.	7.06	7.36	7.46	7.29	0.9579	5
3	Xavier	7.13	7.02	7.33	7.16	0.9185	12
4	Villanova	7.12	6.81	7.32	7.08	0.9673	2
5	Purdue	6.14	6.17	6.48	6.26	0.9597	4
6	Duke	6.3	5.95	6.39	6.21	0.9638	3
7	Kansas	5.86	5.98	5.89	5.91	0.9381	8
8	North Carolina	5.87	5.49	6.12	5.83	0.9384	7
9	Tennessee	4.64	4.51	4.7	4.62	0.9051	17
10	Auburn	4.88	4.33	4.49	4.57	0.9137	14
11	Michigan	3.96	4.17	4.41	4.18	0.9076	15
12	Ohio St.	4	3.97	4.4	4.12	0.9064	16
13	Gonzaga	4.03	3.59	3.68	3.77	0.9302	10
14	Cincinnati	3.74	3.69	3.84	3.76	0.9556	6
15	Clemson	3.69	3.6	3.98	3.76	0.8974	18
16	Texas Tech	3.47	3.89	3.79	3.72	0.9285	11
17	Wichita St.	3.3	3.29	3.4	3.33	0.9154	13
18	West Virginia	3.04	3.31	3.16	3.17	0.9306	9
19	Rhode Island	2.81	2.7	3	2.84	0.8756	29
20	Kentucky	2.64	2.26	2.63	2.51	0.8913	21
21	TCU	1.98	2.26	2.45	2.23	0.8924	19
22	Nevada	2.69	1.91	2.08	2.23	0.8761	27
23	Arizona	2.31	2.28	1.67	2.09	0.8914	20
24	Creighton	1.82	1.78	2.04	1.88	0.8834	25
25	Middle Tennessee	2.1	1.43	2.01	1.85	0.8299	49
26	Kansas St.	1.59	1.94	1.76	1.76	0.8376	46
27	Miami FL	1.69	1.49	1.69	1.62	0.8639	37
28	Houston	1.58	1.39	1.89	1.62	0.8874	23
29	North Carolina St.	1.55	1.34	1.84	1.58	0.8345	48
30	Arkansas	1.76	1.43	1.52	1.57	0.8573	39
31	Oklahoma	1.24	1.66	1.67	1.52	0.8549	40
32	Virginia Tech	1.58	1.35	1.59	1.51	0.8701	34
33	Nebraska	1.28	1.58	1.65	1.50	0.8019	57
34	Saint Mary’s	1.91	1.37	1.22	1.50	0.8857	24
35	Seton Hall	1.28	1.22	1.57	1.36	0.8707	32
36	Florida St.	1.11	1.03	1.27	1.14	0.8710	31
37	Butler	1	0.87	1.48	1.12	0.8908	22
38	Texas A&M	1.14	0.94	1.15	1.08	0.8698	35
39	St. Bonaventure	0.99	0.92	1.32	1.08	0.7943	60
40	Louisiana Lafayette	1.03	0.54	1.05	0.87	0.8043	56
41	Louisville	0.64	0.65	0.84	0.71	0.8758	28
42	Mississippi St.	0.8	0.54	0.53	0.62	0.8137	54
43	Loyola Chicago	1.12	0.37	0.36	0.62	0.8098	55
44	Providence	0.48	0.29	0.82	0.53	0.7765	69
45	Florida	0.71	0.17	0.48	0.45	0.8783	26
46	New Mexico St.	0.67	0.15	0.52	0.45	0.7885	64
47	Texas	0.15	0.42	0.53	0.37	0.8575	38
48	Boise St.	0.64	0.18	0.21	0.34	0.8209	52
49	Baylor	-0.43	0.07	0.24	-0.04	0.8682	36
50	USC	0.09	0.1	-0.54	-0.12	0.8444	43
51	South Dakota St.	0.11	-0.37	-0.21	-0.16	0.7230	86
52	Arizona St.	-0.07	0.09	-0.59	-0.19	0.8488	42
53	Vermont	-0.37	-0.67	0.02	-0.34	0.7770	68
54	Missouri	-0.12	-0.54	-0.52	-0.39	0.8401	44
55	Syracuse	-0.67	-0.62	-0.42	-0.57	0.8360	47
56	Maryland	-0.77	-0.78	-0.27	-0.61	0.8545	41
57	Marquette	-0.89	-0.94	-0.4	-0.74	0.8267	50
58	Western Kentucky	-0.58	-1.11	-0.65	-0.78	0.7869	65
59	UCLA	-0.74	-0.72	-1.22	-0.89	0.8139	53
60	Utah	-0.79	-0.82	-1.36	-0.99	0.7842	66
61	Alabama	-0.81	-1.24	-0.93	-0.99	0.8387	45
62	Murray St.	-0.74	-1.42	-0.93	-1.03	0.7578	78
63	Notre Dame	-1.09	-1.22	-0.91	-1.07	0.8740	30
64	Georgia	-0.98	-1.49	-1.16	-1.21	0.7670	72
65	Oklahoma St.	-1.5	-1.14	-1.11	-1.25	0.7887	63
66	Old Dominion	-1.01	-1.6	-1.27	-1.29	0.7950	59
67	Temple	-1.62	-1.97	-1.26	-1.62	0.7422	80
68	LSU	-1.5	-1.76	-1.64	-1.63	0.7796	67
69	Washington	-1.43	-1.5	-2	-1.64	0.6796	101
70	Penn St.	-1.82	-1.82	-1.69	-1.78	0.8707	33
71	UNC Greensboro	-1.89	-2.4	-1.47	-1.92	0.6978	93
72	South Dakota	-1.66	-2.16	-2.06	-1.96	0.7662	74
73	Oregon	-2.14	-2.16	-2.57	-2.29	0.7964	58
74	Boston College	-2.33	-2.47	-2.14	-2.31	0.7330	84
75	Buffalo	-2.16	-2.53	-2.36	-2.35	0.7131	87
76	College of Charleston	-2.39	-2.55	-2.21	-2.38	0.6188	114
77	BYU	-2.11	-2.7	-2.48	-2.43	0.7609	76
78	Montana	-1.86	-2.8	-2.66	-2.44	0.6777	103
79	Indiana	-2.7	-2.47	-2.19	-2.45	0.7764	70
80	Stephen F. Austin	-2.36	-2.82	-2.52	-2.57	0.5983	123
81	Belmont	-2.33	-2.95	-2.53	-2.60	0.7333	83
82	Rider	-2.55	-2.9	-2.58	-2.68	0.5844	128
83	UC Santa Barbara	-2.21	-2.81	-3.02	-2.68	0.5713	138
84	East Tennessee St.	-2.66	-3.19	-2.24	-2.70	0.7040	92
85	UCF	-2.79	-2.94	-2.61	-2.78	0.6954	96
86	Penn	-3	-2.94	-2.86	-2.93	0.6088	117
87	Fresno St.	-2.85	-3.31	-3.36	-3.17	0.7686	71
88	Georgetown	-3.25	-3.3	-2.98	-3.18	0.6932	98
89	Bucknell	-3.4	-3.38	-3.01	-3.26	0.6873	100
90	Memphis	-3.27	-3.48	-3.04	-3.26	0.5588	146
91	Iowa St.	-3.45	-3.31	-3.15	-3.30	0.7123	88
92	Northeastern	-3.31	-3.55	-3.11	-3.32	0.6535	106
93	Furman	-3.23	-3.82	-2.96	-3.34	0.7102	89
94	Wyoming	-2.94	-3.77	-3.4	-3.37	0.5993	122
95	South Carolina	-3.03	-3.76	-3.43	-3.41	0.7447	79
96	St. John’s	-3.59	-3.69	-3.27	-3.52	0.7635	75
97	Lipscomb	-3.43	-3.86	-3.4	-3.56	0.4680	179
98	San Diego St.	-3.25	-3.85	-3.84	-3.65	0.7933	62
99	Davidson	-3.62	-3.73	-3.61	-3.65	0.8228	51
100	Tulsa	-3.69	-3.73	-3.65	-3.69	0.6395	109
101	Northern Kentucky	-3.61	-3.98	-3.53	-3.71	0.7337	82
102	UNLV	-3.43	-3.95	-3.98	-3.79	0.7063	91
103	Marshall	-3.6	-4.16	-3.76	-3.84	0.5776	133
104	Utah Valley	-3.52	-4.27	-4.17	-3.99	0.6796	102
105	Toledo	-3.94	-4.11	-4.06	-4.04	0.6077	118
106	Idaho	-3.47	-4.51	-4.15	-4.04	0.6069	119
107	Wright St.	-3.93	-4.49	-3.94	-4.12	0.5568	148
108	Colorado	-4.21	-4.24	-4.66	-4.37	0.6153	115
109	Stanford	-4.2	-4.33	-4.74	-4.42	0.6974	94
110	UC Davis	-3.81	-4.77	-4.69	-4.42	0.5526	149
111	Wagner	-4.32	-4.67	-4.39	-4.46	0.4897	170
112	Wisconsin	-4.67	-4.66	-4.17	-4.50	0.7669	73
113	Northwestern	-4.73	-4.6	-4.37	-4.57	0.7600	77
114	SMU	-4.58	-4.81	-4.36	-4.58	0.7936	61
115	Ball St.	-4.52	-4.56	-4.73	-4.60	0.5347	157
116	Minnesota	-4.77	-4.7	-4.43	-4.63	0.6911	99
117	Georgia St.	-4.77	-5.19	-4.74	-4.90	0.6508	108
118	Albany	-4.97	-5.22	-4.65	-4.95	0.5752	134
119	Nicholls St.	-4.74	-5.38	-4.83	-4.98	0.4702	178
120	Hofstra	-5.07	-5.38	-4.92	-5.12	0.5465	153
121	UNC Asheville	-5.07	-5.87	-4.56	-5.17	0.4561	183
122	UMBC	-5.27	-5.47	-4.77	-5.17	0.4071	201
123	Southern Illinois	-4.63	-5.7	-5.25	-5.19	0.5656	141
124	San Diego	-4.97	-5.58	-5.54	-5.36	0.5809	131
125	Wofford	-5.29	-5.83	-5.03	-5.38	0.4979	169
126	Cal St. Fullerton	-5.01	-5.66	-5.64	-5.44	0.4551	184
127	Northern Colorado	-4.73	-5.88	-5.73	-5.45	0.5741	135
128	Weber St.	-5	-5.89	-5.47	-5.45	0.5663	140
129	William & Mary	-5.42	-5.74	-5.34	-5.50	0.5013	167
130	Grand Canyon	-5.22	-5.81	-5.62	-5.55	0.6520	107
131	Canisius	-5.4	-5.8	-5.59	-5.60	0.5968	125
132	Florida Gulf Coast	-5.47	-5.86	-5.57	-5.63	0.6268	112
133	Connecticut	-5.78	-5.83	-5.35	-5.65	0.5133	165
134	Vanderbilt	-5.46	-6.17	-5.63	-5.75	0.7347	81
135	Portland St.	-5.26	-6.08	-6.05	-5.80	0.5433	154
136	Bradley	-5.28	-6.29	-6	-5.86	0.5815	130
137	Mississippi	-5.49	-6.35	-5.83	-5.89	0.6937	97
138	Southeastern Louisiana	-5.74	-6.23	-5.78	-5.92	0.3709	217
139	VCU	-6.07	-6.25	-5.89	-6.07	0.5898	127
140	DePaul	-6.3	-6.16	-5.94	-6.13	0.6661	104
141	UT Arlington	-6.12	-6.71	-6.03	-6.29	0.5977	124
142	Georgia Southern	-6.14	-6.63	-6.1	-6.29	0.5718	137
143	Illinois St.	-5.72	-6.86	-6.47	-6.35	0.5312	160
144	Illinois	-6.38	-6.5	-6.21	-6.36	0.6972	95
145	Saint Louis	-6.43	-6.55	-6.29	-6.42	0.5838	129
146	Seattle	-6.06	-6.76	-6.58	-6.47	0.4139	197
147	UTSA	-6.2	-6.86	-6.4	-6.49	0.4482	186
148	Jacksonville St.	-6.2	-6.87	-6.44	-6.50	0.5476	152
149	Harvard	-6.68	-6.72	-6.37	-6.59	0.5383	156
150	UAB	-6.33	-6.97	-6.51	-6.60	0.6237	113
151	Iowa	-6.69	-6.84	-6.41	-6.65	0.7099	90
152	Radford	-6.59	-7.15	-6.23	-6.66	0.4579	181
153	St. Francis PA	-6.51	-6.87	-6.59	-6.66	0.4197	193
154	Georgia Tech	-6.62	-6.94	-6.46	-6.67	0.6318	111
155	Oregon St.	-6.63	-6.51	-7.06	-6.73	0.6538	105
156	New Mexico	-6.38	-6.97	-6.92	-6.76	0.6125	116
157	Winthrop	-6.73	-7.3	-6.42	-6.82	0.5594	145
158	Eastern Michigan	-6.71	-6.95	-6.97	-6.88	0.4771	176
159	Wake Forest	-6.87	-7.33	-6.68	-6.96	0.7263	85
160	Sam Houston St.	-6.75	-7.28	-6.94	-6.99	0.3808	210
161	Tulane	-7.02	-7.13	-6.85	-7.00	0.5255	163
162	San Francisco	-6.7	-7.36	-7.15	-7.07	0.5504	150
163	Eastern Washington	-6.49	-7.7	-7.44	-7.21	0.5341	158
164	Navy	-7.32	-7.39	-6.94	-7.22	0.3980	205
165	Niagara	-7.22	-7.37	-7.11	-7.23	0.4127	198
166	Northern Iowa	-6.84	-7.63	-7.26	-7.24	0.5950	126
167	Austin Peay	-7.01	-7.68	-7.12	-7.27	0.4047	202
168	Oakland	-7.19	-7.49	-7.26	-7.31	0.5228	164
169	Utah St.	-6.92	-7.76	-7.31	-7.33	0.5618	143
170	Western Michigan	-7.1	-7.48	-7.49	-7.36	0.4857	172
171	Tennessee Tech	-7.2	-7.85	-7.22	-7.42	0.3596	224
172	Iona	-7.32	-7.72	-7.28	-7.44	0.6027	121
173	Hartford	-7.37	-7.79	-7.18	-7.45	0.3506	229
174	Mercer	-7.29	-7.96	-7.12	-7.46	0.6054	120
175	Hawaii	-7.16	-7.69	-7.52	-7.46	0.3646	222
176	Evansville	-7.11	-8.03	-7.74	-7.63	0.5317	159
177	Rutgers	-7.81	-7.78	-7.4	-7.66	0.5653	142
178	Fort Wayne	-7.5	-8.09	-7.6	-7.73	0.5259	162
179	Louisiana Monroe	-7.88	-8.28	-7.58	-7.91	0.3557	226
180	Missouri St.	-7.34	-8.47	-8.15	-7.99	0.6375	110
181	Drake	-7.44	-8.3	-8.25	-8.00	0.4999	168
182	Yale	-8.17	-8.12	-7.83	-8.04	0.4845	173
183	UC Irvine	-7.43	-8.41	-8.39	-8.08	0.5729	136
184	Lamar	-7.91	-8.31	-8.16	-8.13	0.4333	190
185	Dayton	-8.11	-8.44	-7.88	-8.14	0.5596	144
186	Colgate	-8.23	-8.3	-7.94	-8.16	0.4171	195
187	Louisiana Tech	-7.95	-8.79	-8.29	-8.34	0.5571	147
188	Savannah St.	-8.36	-8.8	-8.21	-8.46	0.1638	325
189	Towson	-8.41	-8.67	-8.3	-8.46	0.5780	132
190	George Washington	-8.78	-8.74	-8.3	-8.61	0.4391	187
191	Tennessee St.	-8.49	-9	-8.42	-8.64	0.3944	206
192	Lehigh	-8.79	-8.85	-8.48	-8.71	0.3743	216
193	North Carolina A&T	-8.56	-8.89	-8.67	-8.71	0.2014	305
194	Miami OH	-8.48	-8.89	-8.85	-8.74	0.4241	192
195	George Mason	-8.81	-8.91	-8.57	-8.76	0.3923	208
196	Saint Joseph’s	-8.97	-8.97	-8.71	-8.88	0.5663	139
197	Bowling Green	-8.75	-9.14	-8.92	-8.94	0.3493	230
198	Washington St.	-8.77	-8.89	-9.48	-9.05	0.4364	188
199	New Orleans	-8.91	-9.39	-8.91	-9.07	0.2915	254
200	Mount St. Mary’s	-9.11	-9.38	-9.2	-9.23	0.3219	237
201	Central Michigan	-9.03	-9.29	-9.39	-9.24	0.4564	182
202	North Texas	-8.91	-9.54	-9.35	-9.27	0.4186	194
203	Liberty	-9.19	-9.86	-8.94	-9.33	0.4796	174
204	Grambling St.	-9.25	-9.56	-9.39	-9.40	0.2004	306
205	Illinois Chicago	-9.26	-9.65	-9.31	-9.41	0.4105	199
206	Denver	-9.01	-9.73	-9.5	-9.41	0.3705	218
207	Duquesne	-9.52	-9.51	-9.49	-9.51	0.4537	185
208	Pacific	-9.1	-9.78	-9.71	-9.53	0.4762	177
209	Valparaiso	-9.04	-9.87	-9.74	-9.55	0.5499	151
210	UT Rio Grande Valley	-9.34	-9.89	-9.71	-9.65	0.2909	256
211	Cornell	-9.72	-9.88	-9.46	-9.69	0.2725	267
212	La Salle	-9.92	-9.92	-9.38	-9.74	0.5407	155
213	Princeton	-9.77	-9.86	-9.65	-9.76	0.4621	180
214	Bethune Cookman	-9.56	-9.79	-9.93	-9.76	0.2079	301
215	Fairfield	-9.73	-10.17	-9.66	-9.85	0.3659	220
216	Kent St.	-9.66	-10.1	-9.88	-9.88	0.3987	204
217	Troy	-9.74	-10.3	-9.65	-9.90	0.4793	175
218	Brown	-10.08	-10.01	-9.78	-9.96	0.2963	249
219	North Dakota St.	-9.71	-10.42	-10.13	-10.09	0.5028	166
220	Cal St. Bakersfield	-9.79	-10.56	-10.13	-10.16	0.3235	236
221	Indiana St.	-9.6	-10.68	-10.27	-10.18	0.5277	161
222	Long Beach St.	-9.75	-10.33	-10.53	-10.20	0.3694	219
223	Elon	-10.05	-10.58	-10.03	-10.22	0.3539	227
224	Hampton	-10.1	-10.4	-10.16	-10.22	0.2951	252
225	Idaho St.	-9.79	-10.59	-10.31	-10.23	0.2776	263
226	Air Force	-9.91	-10.49	-10.41	-10.27	0.2806	259
227	Central Arkansas	-10.11	-10.44	-10.42	-10.32	0.3796	212
228	Pittsburgh	-10.35	-10.59	-10.09	-10.34	0.3466	232
229	Southern	-10.42	-10.5	-10.46	-10.46	0.1712	322
230	Southern Miss	-10.1	-11.02	-10.38	-10.50	0.3120	241
231	South Alabama	-10.39	-10.87	-10.28	-10.51	0.3784	213
232	Campbell	-10.55	-11.09	-10.27	-10.64	0.3860	209
233	Colorado St.	-10.28	-10.89	-10.79	-10.65	0.3633	223
234	Charleston Southern	-10.6	-11.15	-10.25	-10.67	0.2952	251
235	Western Illinois	-10.52	-11.04	-10.76	-10.77	0.2234	290
236	NJIT	-10.77	-10.95	-10.7	-10.81	0.3048	244
237	North Florida	-10.69	-11.01	-10.74	-10.81	0.2242	288
238	Southern Utah	-10.37	-11.19	-11.02	-10.86	0.2172	294
239	Ohio	-10.75	-11.13	-11	-10.96	0.4086	200
240	Western Carolina	-10.94	-11.54	-10.49	-10.99	0.2060	303
241	Abilene Christian	-10.86	-11.31	-11.05	-11.07	0.2755	265
242	East Carolina	-11.15	-11.2	-10.91	-11.09	0.2240	289
243	Texas Southern	-10.98	-11.22	-11.11	-11.10	0.2826	258
244	Florida Atlantic	-10.91	-11.42	-11.13	-11.15	0.2978	248
245	Gardner Webb	-11.1	-11.68	-10.73	-11.17	0.2750	266
246	Boston University	-11.35	-11.39	-10.97	-11.24	0.3236	235
247	Richmond	-11.27	-11.58	-10.9	-11.25	0.4315	191
248	Robert Morris	-11.02	-11.65	-11.2	-11.29	0.3056	243
249	Prairie View A&M	-11.05	-11.46	-11.45	-11.32	0.2439	278
250	High Point	-11.28	-11.85	-10.99	-11.37	0.3797	211
251	Coastal Carolina	-11.34	-11.86	-11.21	-11.47	0.4152	196
252	Manhattan	-11.41	-11.62	-11.42	-11.48	0.3938	207
253	Milwaukee	-11.48	-11.78	-11.34	-11.53	0.3656	221
254	North Carolina Central	-11.35	-11.63	-11.63	-11.54	0.2091	299
255	Akron	-11.46	-11.67	-11.6	-11.58	0.2896	257
256	Massachusetts	-11.62	-11.61	-11.56	-11.60	0.4344	189
257	Montana St.	-11	-12.12	-11.81	-11.64	0.2778	262
258	Texas St.	-11.5	-12.14	-11.53	-11.72	0.3763	215
259	Appalachian St.	-11.91	-12.23	-11.71	-11.95	0.3779	214
260	North Dakota	-11.34	-12.52	-12.03	-11.96	0.2591	272
261	Northern Illinois	-11.97	-12.12	-12.13	-12.07	0.3215	238
262	McNeese St.	-11.88	-12.44	-12.01	-12.11	0.1988	308
263	Loyola Marymount	-11.79	-12.36	-12.26	-12.14	0.3189	239
264	Columbia	-12.44	-12.46	-12.08	-12.33	0.3988	203
265	FIU	-12.15	-12.74	-12.47	-12.45	0.2992	247
266	Saint Peter’s	-12.46	-12.66	-12.38	-12.50	0.3484	231
267	Fairleigh Dickinson	-12.44	-12.78	-12.34	-12.52	0.2465	277
268	Stony Brook	-12.54	-12.85	-12.19	-12.53	0.3562	225
269	Santa Clara	-12.2	-12.83	-12.58	-12.54	0.2791	261
270	Southeast Missouri St.	-12.22	-12.96	-12.46	-12.55	0.2773	264
271	Fordham	-12.76	-12.73	-12.36	-12.62	0.2616	271
272	Oral Roberts	-12.37	-12.94	-12.6	-12.64	0.3010	246
273	Army	-12.71	-12.83	-12.43	-12.66	0.3136	240
274	Monmouth	-12.66	-12.89	-12.46	-12.67	0.4888	171
275	Jacksonville	-12.62	-12.98	-12.78	-12.79	0.1532	326
276	IUPUI	-12.79	-13.16	-12.75	-12.90	0.2335	281
277	Eastern Illinois	-12.61	-13.37	-12.79	-12.92	0.2912	255
278	UTEP	-12.52	-13.35	-12.96	-12.94	0.2948	253
279	Central Connecticut	-12.92	-13.43	-13.1	-13.15	0.1922	311
280	California	-13.01	-13.03	-13.44	-13.16	0.3339	233
281	Delaware	-13.1	-13.43	-12.99	-13.17	0.3034	245
282	Jackson St.	-13.1	-13.4	-13.09	-13.20	0.1107	338
283	Texas A&M Corpus Chris	-13.01	-13.52	-13.27	-13.27	0.1881	313
284	LIU Brooklyn	-13.17	-13.65	-13.26	-13.36	0.2683	269
285	Norfolk St.	-13.18	-13.7	-13.35	-13.41	0.1878	314
286	UMass Lowell	-13.44	-13.83	-13.24	-13.50	0.2129	298
287	St. Francis NY	-13.45	-13.81	-13.43	-13.56	0.2082	300
288	Alcorn St.	-13.64	-13.71	-13.65	-13.67	0.1117	337
289	Portland	-13.44	-14.03	-13.8	-13.76	0.2686	268
290	Nebraska Omaha	-13.43	-14.07	-13.78	-13.76	0.2646	270
291	Kennesaw St.	-13.65	-14.01	-13.65	-13.77	0.2181	291
292	Drexel	-13.74	-14.1	-13.55	-13.80	0.2961	250
293	UMKC	-13.49	-14.33	-13.75	-13.86	0.2172	293
294	Green Bay	-13.78	-14.18	-13.86	-13.94	0.2792	260
295	Morgan St.	-13.92	-14.08	-13.92	-13.97	0.1679	324
296	Holy Cross	-14.34	-14.4	-13.91	-14.22	0.2275	287
297	The Citadel	-14.17	-14.81	-13.69	-14.22	0.1873	315
298	South Carolina St.	-14.17	-14.5	-14.1	-14.26	0.0837	343
299	Arkansas St.	-14.13	-14.58	-14.07	-14.26	0.2587	273
300	Samford	-14.18	-15.01	-13.92	-14.37	0.2473	276
301	UNC Wilmington	-14.25	-14.8	-14.1	-14.38	0.3286	234
302	New Hampshire	-14.34	-14.72	-14.12	-14.39	0.3093	242
303	South Florida	-14.41	-14.61	-14.35	-14.46	0.1854	316
304	Arkansas Pine Bluff	-14.31	-14.72	-14.58	-14.54	0.1217	332
305	SIU Edwardsville	-14.34	-15.01	-14.45	-14.60	0.1781	320
306	Dartmouth	-14.71	-14.83	-14.38	-14.64	0.2543	275
307	Cal Poly	-14.27	-14.81	-14.93	-14.67	0.1845	317
308	Eastern Kentucky	-14.32	-15.21	-14.52	-14.68	0.2282	285
309	VMI	-14.77	-15.38	-14.29	-14.81	0.1229	331
310	Morehead St.	-14.77	-15.47	-14.73	-14.99	0.2305	284
311	UC Riverside	-14.65	-15.56	-15.49	-15.23	0.2399	279
312	Presbyterian	-15.2	-15.95	-14.84	-15.33	0.1351	330
313	Binghamton	-15.34	-15.78	-15.21	-15.44	0.2313	283
314	Quinnipiac	-15.39	-15.8	-15.35	-15.51	0.2280	286
315	Stetson	-15.42	-15.82	-15.53	-15.59	0.1835	318
316	Alabama St.	-15.55	-15.85	-15.51	-15.64	0.0958	340
317	Incarnate Word	-15.64	-16.09	-15.72	-15.82	0.0964	339
318	James Madison	-15.74	-16.21	-15.71	-15.89	0.3514	228
319	Lafayette	-16.32	-16.33	-15.87	-16.17	0.2574	274
320	Tennessee Martin	-16.06	-16.72	-16.27	-16.35	0.2181	292
321	Cleveland St.	-16.51	-16.78	-16.43	-16.57	0.1926	310
322	Charlotte	-16.49	-17.17	-16.66	-16.77	0.1895	312
323	Loyola MD	-16.96	-16.97	-16.61	-16.85	0.1784	319
324	Howard	-16.92	-17.18	-16.99	-17.03	0.1202	333
325	Chattanooga	-16.84	-17.63	-16.64	-17.04	0.2132	296
326	Sacred Heart	-16.88	-17.28	-16.95	-17.04	0.1989	307
327	Rice	-16.89	-17.66	-17.22	-17.26	0.2048	304
328	Houston Baptist	-17.1	-17.57	-17.15	-17.27	0.1482	329
329	Florida A&M	-17.12	-17.57	-17.22	-17.30	0.0842	342
330	Siena	-17.26	-17.6	-17.09	-17.32	0.2323	282
331	Youngstown St.	-17.09	-17.73	-17.23	-17.35	0.1696	323
332	Detroit	-17.23	-17.7	-17.19	-17.37	0.1985	309
333	Sacramento St.	-16.71	-17.9	-17.59	-17.40	0.2168	295
334	San Jose St.	-16.95	-17.71	-17.55	-17.40	0.2131	297
335	Pepperdine	-17.3	-17.99	-17.74	-17.68	0.2345	280
336	Cal St. Northridge	-17.35	-18.25	-18.32	-17.97	0.1499	328
337	Little Rock	-17.82	-18.57	-17.93	-18.11	0.2067	302
338	American	-18.28	-18.44	-17.86	-18.19	0.1500	327
339	Coppin St.	-18.34	-18.43	-18.38	-18.38	0.0662	345
340	Maryland Eastern Shore	-18.47	-18.71	-18.28	-18.49	0.0426	349
341	Northern Arizona	-18.05	-19	-18.77	-18.61	0.1174	335
342	Northwestern St.	-18.46	-18.75	-18.62	-18.61	0.0621	346
343	Maine	-19.07	-19.38	-18.86	-19.10	0.1192	334
344	USC Upstate	-19.05	-19.35	-19.01	-19.14	0.1150	336
345	Marist	-19.13	-19.56	-19.18	-19.29	0.1774	321
346	Chicago St.	-19.92	-20.49	-20.12	-20.18	0.0562	348
347	Longwood	-20.45	-21.1	-20.1	-20.55	0.0716	344
348	Mississippi Valley St.	-20.86	-21.21	-21.07	-21.05	0.0575	347
349	Alabama A&M	-21.35	-21.64	-21.58	-21.52	0.0357	351
350	Delaware St.	-22.2	-22.62	-22.28	-22.37	0.0406	350
351	Bryant	-22.81	-23.28	-22.81	-22.97	0.0939	341

WAB 2/25: Penn State vs. Nebraska? Big game or no?

Earlier today the official NCAA March Madness tweeted out the top five games of the day. Sitting at #1 game of the day: Penn State at Nebraska:

🏀THE STARTING 5🏀
1️⃣ Game of the Day: Penn State at Nebraska
2️⃣ Michigan State at Wisconsin
3️⃣ Tulsa at Cincinnati
4️⃣ UCLA at Colorado
5️⃣ Minnesota at Purdue
More from @TheAndyKatz: https://t.co/3OBbYwJSmS pic.twitter.com/t9OOUQHh40

— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) February 25, 2018

OK, I can see that. Jerry Palm, as close to an official bracketologist as we can get, tweeted this out when asked how the matchup affected his last four out:

doesn't https://t.co/DnJnyx1hiF

— Jerry Palm (@jppalmCBS) February 25, 2018

In short, even if the field were 72 teams, the winner of the game of the day wouldn’t merit inclusion. My word!

Note, that if we wanted the 37 best at-large teams, Penn State would be an easy include. If we want the 37 best at-large resumes, Nebraska would be well in the field.

WAB spreadsheet available here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Tsi90fKMaqW26tOUP6theXc3DlMpjGu6u2JnR3mXXkY/edit#gid=0

If you want to take a crack at the algebra problem from Hell, it’s here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-hHgk28b_Fh_6W60ok4Oijoi75QWzFpvYzOY9HvTvDs/edit#gid=0

Rank WAB	School	WAB KP	WAB Sag	WAB BPI	WAB Avg	Pythag	Rank Pythag
1	Virginia	8.28	8.26	8.64	8.39	0.9698	1
2	Xavier	7.18	7.02	7.36	7.19	0.919	12
3	Villanova	7.14	6.80	7.34	7.09	0.9679	2
4	Michigan St.	6.60	6.82	6.98	6.80	0.9582	5
5	Duke	6.32	5.95	6.46	6.24	0.9627	3
6	Purdue	6.04	5.98	6.37	6.13	0.9586	4
7	Kansas	5.88	5.98	5.96	5.94	0.9368	8
8	North Carolina	5.87	5.47	6.15	5.83	0.9386	7
9	Tennessee	4.63	4.48	4.74	4.62	0.9038	16
10	Auburn	4.92	4.32	4.54	4.59	0.9144	13
11	Michigan	4.00	4.17	4.46	4.21	0.9017	17
12	Ohio St.	4.08	3.99	4.47	4.18	0.9065	15
13	Gonzaga	4.08	3.60	3.72	3.80	0.9286	11
14	Texas Tech	3.51	3.91	3.89	3.77	0.9299	10
15	Clemson	3.69	3.57	4.02	3.76	0.8977	18
16	Cincinnati	3.62	3.52	3.69	3.61	0.9575	6
17	Wichita St.	3.30	3.23	3.40	3.31	0.9139	14
18	West Virginia	3.08	3.34	3.25	3.22	0.9303	9
19	Rhode Island	2.88	2.71	3.02	2.87	0.8746	29
20	Kentucky	2.68	2.27	2.70	2.55	0.8886	22
21	TCU	2.02	2.27	2.54	2.28	0.8911	21
22	Nevada	2.68	1.85	2.07	2.20	0.88	26
23	Arizona	2.33	2.26	1.68	2.09	0.8923	19
24	Creighton	1.84	1.79	2.08	1.90	0.8801	25
25	Middle Tennessee	2.14	1.43	2.07	1.88	0.826	49
26	Kansas St.	1.60	1.94	1.83	1.79	0.8381	45
27	Miami FL	1.75	1.52	1.77	1.68	0.8664	37
28	Houston	1.60	1.36	1.88	1.61	0.8816	24
29	Arkansas	1.80	1.41	1.57	1.59	0.8553	40
30	Oklahoma	1.27	1.67	1.75	1.56	0.853	41
31	Florida St.	1.51	1.43	1.69	1.54	0.879	27
32	Saint Mary’s	1.96	1.37	1.26	1.53	0.8832	23
33	Virginia Tech	1.61	1.35	1.63	1.53	0.8719	33
34	Seton Hall	1.33	1.24	1.61	1.39	0.8675	36
35	North Carolina St.	1.21	0.95	1.53	1.23	0.8237	50
36	Nebraska	0.98	1.26	1.31	1.18	0.7967	58
37	Butler	1.02	0.86	1.51	1.13	0.8913	20
38	Texas A&M	1.17	0.95	1.21	1.11	0.8693	35
39	St. Bonaventure	1.04	0.92	1.32	1.09	0.7925	61
40	Louisiana Lafayette	1.06	0.53	1.10	0.90	0.802	56
41	Louisville	0.70	0.68	0.93	0.77	0.8725	32
42	Mississippi St.	0.84	0.54	0.59	0.66	0.8155	53
43	Loyola Chicago	1.16	0.36	0.36	0.63	0.8098	55
44	Providence	0.50	0.26	0.83	0.53	0.7726	71
45	Florida	0.78	0.19	0.58	0.52	0.8761	28
46	New Mexico St.	0.67	0.14	0.52	0.44	0.7845	65
47	Texas	0.18	0.43	0.61	0.41	0.8587	39
48	Boise St.	0.69	0.19	0.25	0.38	0.821	52
49	Baylor	-0.41	0.07	0.31	-0.01	0.8703	34
50	USC	0.14	0.11	-0.50	-0.08	0.8362	46
51	South Dakota St.	0.13	-0.38	-0.20	-0.15	0.72	86
52	Arizona St.	-0.03	0.09	-0.56	-0.17	0.8496	42
53	UCLA	-0.05	-0.11	-0.48	-0.21	0.8146	54
54	Vermont	-0.32	-0.68	0.06	-0.31	0.776	69
55	Missouri	-0.07	-0.54	-0.46	-0.36	0.8436	43
56	Syracuse	-0.63	-0.61	-0.36	-0.53	0.8337	47
57	Maryland	-0.73	-0.77	-0.23	-0.58	0.8624	38
58	Marquette	-0.89	-0.95	-0.38	-0.74	0.8289	48
59	Western Kentucky	-0.56	-1.12	-0.62	-0.77	0.7811	66
60	Alabama	-0.77	-1.23	-0.85	-0.95	0.8408	44
61	Utah	-0.74	-0.81	-1.33	-0.96	0.7888	63
62	Murray St.	-0.71	-1.42	-0.90	-1.01	0.7566	78
63	Notre Dame	-1.09	-1.24	-0.87	-1.07	0.8738	31
64	Oklahoma St.	-1.46	-1.12	-1.00	-1.19	0.787	64
65	Georgia	-0.96	-1.50	-1.12	-1.19	0.7652	74
66	Old Dominion	-0.98	-1.62	-1.27	-1.29	0.7991	57
67	Penn St.	-1.44	-1.39	-1.25	-1.36	0.8744	30
68	Washington	-1.39	-1.50	-1.97	-1.62	0.6722	103
69	LSU	-1.49	-1.79	-1.60	-1.63	0.7799	67
70	Temple	-1.75	-2.17	-1.41	-1.78	0.7312	82
71	East Tennessee St.	-1.84	-2.36	-1.45	-1.88	0.7065	89
72	South Dakota	-1.61	-2.15	-2.04	-1.93	0.7672	72
73	UNC Greensboro	-1.92	-2.45	-1.52	-1.96	0.7011	94
74	Oregon	-2.09	-2.15	-2.55	-2.26	0.7951	59
75	UCF	-2.26	-2.43	-2.13	-2.27	0.7056	91
76	Boston College	-2.31	-2.48	-2.09	-2.29	0.7317	81
77	Buffalo	-2.09	-2.53	-2.34	-2.32	0.7101	88
78	College of Charleston	-2.35	-2.55	-2.21	-2.37	0.6231	114
79	BYU	-2.06	-2.70	-2.46	-2.41	0.7652	73
80	Montana	-1.80	-2.79	-2.63	-2.41	0.676	102
81	Indiana	-2.67	-2.48	-2.15	-2.43	0.7771	68
82	Stephen F. Austin	-2.33	-2.83	-2.48	-2.55	0.6037	121
83	Belmont	-2.29	-2.96	-2.50	-2.58	0.7294	83
84	UC Santa Barbara	-2.17	-2.81	-2.98	-2.65	0.5712	137
85	Rider	-2.61	-3.01	-2.70	-2.77	0.5828	128
86	Penn	-2.96	-2.95	-2.86	-2.92	0.6095	116
87	UNLV	-2.77	-3.29	-3.30	-3.12	0.7043	92
88	Fresno St.	-2.80	-3.30	-3.31	-3.14	0.773	70
89	Georgetown	-3.23	-3.30	-2.97	-3.17	0.6968	96
90	Bucknell	-3.34	-3.38	-2.96	-3.23	0.6823	100
91	Iowa St.	-3.44	-3.31	-3.08	-3.28	0.714	87
92	Northeastern	-3.26	-3.56	-3.13	-3.32	0.6471	107
93	Wyoming	-2.87	-3.76	-3.35	-3.33	0.5909	126
94	South Carolina	-3.01	-3.77	-3.38	-3.39	0.7433	79
95	Memphis	-3.46	-3.78	-3.25	-3.50	0.5542	148
96	St. John’s	-3.56	-3.69	-3.25	-3.50	0.7649	75
97	Lipscomb	-3.40	-3.87	-3.37	-3.55	0.4696	177
98	Tulsa	-3.56	-3.60	-3.55	-3.57	0.6348	110
99	Davidson	-3.56	-3.71	-3.58	-3.62	0.8214	51
100	San Diego St.	-3.21	-3.85	-3.80	-3.62	0.7922	62
101	Furman	-3.64	-4.19	-3.40	-3.74	0.7038	93
102	Northern Kentucky	-3.64	-4.06	-3.60	-3.77	0.728	84
103	Marshall	-3.60	-4.18	-3.75	-3.84	0.575	136
104	Northwestern	-4.09	-4.06	-3.76	-3.97	0.7624	77
105	Utah Valley	-3.48	-4.27	-4.16	-3.97	0.6789	101
106	Toledo	-3.89	-4.11	-4.04	-4.01	0.6062	118
107	Idaho	-3.42	-4.51	-4.12	-4.02	0.6018	122
108	Wisconsin	-4.34	-4.34	-3.86	-4.18	0.7645	76
109	Wright St.	-4.10	-4.67	-4.13	-4.30	0.5531	149
110	UC Davis	-3.75	-4.76	-4.64	-4.38	0.5584	147
111	Stanford	-4.15	-4.32	-4.69	-4.39	0.6978	95
112	Wagner	-4.27	-4.67	-4.38	-4.44	0.4969	169
113	Wofford	-4.37	-4.94	-4.16	-4.49	0.5021	166
114	Minnesota	-4.62	-4.59	-4.31	-4.51	0.6959	97
115	SMU	-4.51	-4.80	-4.31	-4.54	0.7942	60
116	Ball St.	-4.47	-4.55	-4.70	-4.57	0.5353	157
117	Colorado	-4.47	-4.55	-4.91	-4.64	0.6076	117
118	Connecticut	-4.83	-4.92	-4.39	-4.71	0.5194	164
119	Georgia St.	-4.73	-5.19	-4.70	-4.87	0.653	105
120	Albany	-4.92	-5.22	-4.62	-4.92	0.5796	131
121	Nicholls St.	-4.71	-5.38	-4.80	-4.96	0.4684	178
122	Hofstra	-5.02	-5.38	-4.91	-5.10	0.5488	151
123	UMBC	-5.23	-5.47	-4.75	-5.15	0.4114	201
124	UNC Asheville	-5.04	-5.88	-4.57	-5.16	0.4618	180
125	Southern Illinois	-4.57	-5.70	-5.25	-5.17	0.5761	134
126	San Diego	-4.94	-5.58	-5.52	-5.35	0.5763	133
127	Cal St. Fullerton	-4.97	-5.67	-5.60	-5.41	0.4516	185
128	Northern Colorado	-4.68	-5.88	-5.70	-5.42	0.5696	140
129	Weber St.	-4.96	-5.89	-5.45	-5.43	0.57	139
130	William & Mary	-5.35	-5.73	-5.30	-5.46	0.4974	168
131	Grand Canyon	-5.21	-5.83	-5.62	-5.55	0.6497	106
132	Canisius	-5.37	-5.82	-5.59	-5.59	0.5928	124
133	Florida Gulf Coast	-5.43	-5.86	-5.54	-5.61	0.6259	113
134	Vanderbilt	-5.43	-6.17	-5.57	-5.72	0.7362	80
135	Portland St.	-5.21	-6.08	-6.02	-5.77	0.544	153
136	Bradley	-5.24	-6.29	-6.00	-5.84	0.5825	129
137	Mississippi	-5.47	-6.35	-5.76	-5.86	0.6946	98
138	Southeastern Louisiana	-5.69	-6.22	-5.73	-5.88	0.3662	219
139	VCU	-6.02	-6.25	-5.89	-6.05	0.5909	125
140	DePaul	-6.28	-6.16	-5.92	-6.12	0.66	104
141	UT Arlington	-6.08	-6.72	-5.99	-6.26	0.5941	123
142	Georgia Southern	-6.09	-6.63	-6.07	-6.26	0.5701	138
143	Illinois St.	-5.67	-6.87	-6.44	-6.33	0.5276	160
144	Saint Louis	-6.39	-6.57	-6.30	-6.42	0.5822	130
145	Seattle	-6.03	-6.77	-6.57	-6.46	0.4168	195
146	Jacksonville St.	-6.16	-6.87	-6.40	-6.48	0.5452	152
147	UTSA	-6.20	-6.88	-6.37	-6.48	0.4438	186
148	Harvard	-6.62	-6.71	-6.32	-6.55	0.5374	155
149	UAB	-6.30	-6.98	-6.47	-6.58	0.6312	111
150	Georgia Tech	-6.57	-6.92	-6.36	-6.62	0.6283	112
151	Radford	-6.53	-7.13	-6.21	-6.62	0.452	184
152	St. Francis PA	-6.46	-6.87	-6.57	-6.63	0.4138	198
153	Illinois	-6.64	-6.81	-6.47	-6.64	0.6843	99
154	Oregon St.	-6.58	-6.50	-7.03	-6.70	0.6466	108
155	Iona	-6.62	-7.04	-6.60	-6.75	0.6059	119
156	Rutgers	-6.97	-6.97	-6.51	-6.82	0.5771	132
157	Winthrop	-6.72	-7.32	-6.44	-6.83	0.5673	141
158	Iowa	-6.84	-7.08	-6.58	-6.83	0.7063	90
159	Eastern Michigan	-6.66	-6.94	-6.94	-6.85	0.467	179
160	New Mexico	-6.53	-7.14	-7.08	-6.92	0.6123	115
161	Sam Houston St.	-6.72	-7.28	-6.89	-6.96	0.3819	211
162	Wake Forest	-6.90	-7.37	-6.69	-6.99	0.7269	85
163	Tulane	-7.04	-7.19	-6.87	-7.03	0.522	163
164	San Francisco	-6.65	-7.35	-7.11	-7.04	0.5524	150
165	Eastern Washington	-6.43	-7.70	-7.43	-7.19	0.5324	158
166	Navy	-7.27	-7.38	-6.92	-7.19	0.4019	204
167	Niagara	-7.16	-7.37	-7.07	-7.20	0.4123	200
168	Northern Iowa	-6.83	-7.65	-7.27	-7.25	0.5853	127
169	Austin Peay	-7.00	-7.69	-7.11	-7.27	0.4057	202
170	Utah St.	-6.86	-7.74	-7.25	-7.28	0.5657	143
171	Oakland	-7.16	-7.50	-7.25	-7.30	0.5246	162
172	Western Michigan	-7.05	-7.48	-7.46	-7.33	0.4834	172
173	Tennessee Tech	-7.17	-7.86	-7.17	-7.40	0.361	222
174	Hartford	-7.30	-7.78	-7.14	-7.41	0.3485	231
175	Hawaii	-7.11	-7.68	-7.48	-7.42	0.3711	217
176	Evansville	-7.07	-8.04	-7.74	-7.62	0.5169	165
177	Mercer	-7.50	-8.18	-7.38	-7.69	0.6037	120
178	Fort Wayne	-7.43	-8.08	-7.57	-7.69	0.5287	159
179	Louisiana Monroe	-7.85	-8.29	-7.54	-7.89	0.3576	224
180	Missouri St.	-7.30	-8.48	-8.16	-7.98	0.6416	109
181	Drake	-7.40	-8.31	-8.24	-7.98	0.5005	167
182	Yale	-8.11	-8.11	-7.81	-8.01	0.4807	174
183	UC Irvine	-7.36	-8.40	-8.34	-8.03	0.5657	142
184	Colgate	-8.17	-8.28	-7.91	-8.12	0.42	194
185	Lamar	-7.89	-8.33	-8.14	-8.12	0.428	191
186	Dayton	-8.06	-8.44	-7.87	-8.12	0.5599	146
187	Louisiana Tech	-7.92	-8.80	-8.26	-8.33	0.5629	145
188	Savannah St.	-8.33	-8.79	-8.16	-8.43	0.1692	325
189	Towson	-8.37	-8.67	-8.27	-8.44	0.576	135
190	Illinois Chicago	-8.34	-8.75	-8.41	-8.50	0.4156	196
191	George Washington	-8.71	-8.73	-8.26	-8.57	0.4396	187
192	Tennessee St.	-8.46	-9.01	-8.38	-8.62	0.401	205
193	Lehigh	-8.74	-8.84	-8.46	-8.68	0.3715	216
194	North Carolina A&T	-8.53	-8.88	-8.66	-8.69	0.208	302
195	Miami OH	-8.43	-8.89	-8.82	-8.71	0.422	193
196	George Mason	-8.74	-8.90	-8.55	-8.73	0.3965	208
197	Saint Joseph’s	-8.93	-8.98	-8.71	-8.87	0.5654	144
198	Bowling Green	-8.70	-9.14	-8.90	-8.91	0.3502	229
199	Washington St.	-8.72	-8.89	-9.46	-9.02	0.434	190
200	New Orleans	-8.89	-9.42	-8.91	-9.07	0.2956	250
201	Mount St. Mary’s	-9.06	-9.38	-9.16	-9.20	0.3161	240
202	Central Michigan	-8.98	-9.29	-9.37	-9.21	0.4571	182
203	North Texas	-8.89	-9.56	-9.32	-9.26	0.4273	192
204	Liberty	-9.17	-9.88	-8.96	-9.34	0.4705	176
205	Grambling St.	-9.22	-9.56	-9.37	-9.38	0.2081	301
206	Denver	-8.97	-9.74	-9.49	-9.40	0.3515	228
207	Duquesne	-9.47	-9.51	-9.49	-9.49	0.4553	183
208	Pacific	-9.04	-9.78	-9.66	-9.49	0.4778	175
209	Valparaiso	-8.99	-9.87	-9.73	-9.53	0.5423	154
210	UT Rio Grande Valley	-9.31	-9.89	-9.68	-9.63	0.2932	252
211	Cornell	-9.69	-9.88	-9.44	-9.67	0.2724	267
212	La Salle	-9.88	-9.92	-9.39	-9.73	0.5372	156
213	Princeton	-9.72	-9.85	-9.62	-9.73	0.4591	181
214	Bethune Cookman	-9.53	-9.79	-9.91	-9.74	0.2025	305
215	Fairfield	-9.70	-10.20	-9.66	-9.85	0.3648	221
216	Troy	-9.69	-10.29	-9.60	-9.86	0.4812	173
217	Kent St.	-9.62	-10.11	-9.85	-9.86	0.3977	207
218	Brown	-10.03	-10.00	-9.76	-9.93	0.2964	249
219	North Dakota St.	-9.67	-10.43	-10.11	-10.07	0.4915	170
220	Cal St. Bakersfield	-9.75	-10.55	-10.10	-10.13	0.32	238
221	Indiana St.	-9.57	-10.69	-10.28	-10.18	0.5249	161
222	Long Beach St.	-9.74	-10.34	-10.51	-10.20	0.3705	218
223	Hampton	-10.07	-10.41	-10.14	-10.21	0.294	251
224	Idaho St.	-9.75	-10.59	-10.29	-10.21	0.2782	261
225	Elon	-10.02	-10.59	-10.03	-10.21	0.3601	223
226	Air Force	-9.88	-10.50	-10.38	-10.25	0.2729	266
227	Colorado St.	-9.92	-10.53	-10.42	-10.29	0.353	226
228	Central Arkansas	-10.07	-10.45	-10.36	-10.29	0.3805	213
229	Pittsburgh	-10.31	-10.57	-10.04	-10.31	0.3523	227
230	Southern	-10.40	-10.51	-10.44	-10.45	0.1725	323
231	Southern Miss	-10.05	-11.01	-10.31	-10.46	0.3282	235
232	South Alabama	-10.36	-10.88	-10.24	-10.49	0.3812	212
233	Campbell	-10.50	-11.07	-10.26	-10.61	0.3823	210
234	Charleston Southern	-10.57	-11.15	-10.25	-10.66	0.2875	256
235	Western Illinois	-10.49	-11.04	-10.74	-10.76	0.2398	281
236	NJIT	-10.71	-10.94	-10.67	-10.77	0.3052	244
237	North Florida	-10.64	-11.01	-10.70	-10.78	0.2239	290
238	East Carolina	-10.84	-10.91	-10.67	-10.81	0.2345	284
239	Southern Utah	-10.33	-11.19	-10.99	-10.84	0.2195	291
240	Ohio	-10.71	-11.13	-10.98	-10.94	0.4145	197
241	Western Carolina	-10.90	-11.54	-10.47	-10.97	0.2017	306
242	Abilene Christian	-10.83	-11.31	-11.01	-11.05	0.2779	262
243	Texas Southern	-10.95	-11.22	-11.07	-11.08	0.2749	264
244	Florida Atlantic	-10.86	-11.42	-11.10	-11.13	0.2923	253
245	Gardner Webb	-11.04	-11.67	-10.70	-11.14	0.2689	269
246	Boston University	-11.28	-11.38	-10.94	-11.20	0.3221	237
247	Richmond	-11.21	-11.58	-10.88	-11.22	0.4348	188
248	Robert Morris	-11.00	-11.67	-11.21	-11.29	0.3103	242
249	Prairie View A&M	-11.03	-11.49	-11.43	-11.32	0.2481	277
250	High Point	-11.25	-11.86	-10.99	-11.37	0.3872	209
251	Coastal Carolina	-11.31	-11.86	-11.14	-11.44	0.4134	199
252	Manhattan	-11.40	-11.66	-11.43	-11.50	0.398	206
253	Milwaukee	-11.46	-11.80	-11.32	-11.53	0.3659	220
254	North Carolina Central	-11.34	-11.64	-11.63	-11.54	0.2188	292
255	Akron	-11.40	-11.67	-11.57	-11.55	0.2908	254
256	Massachusetts	-11.57	-11.61	-11.54	-11.57	0.4346	189
257	Montana St.	-10.95	-12.12	-11.77	-11.61	0.281	259
258	Texas St.	-11.47	-12.15	-11.49	-11.70	0.3771	215
259	Appalachian St.	-11.88	-12.23	-11.67	-11.93	0.3773	214
260	North Dakota	-11.29	-12.53	-12.01	-11.94	0.259	274
261	Northern Illinois	-11.93	-12.12	-12.09	-12.05	0.3284	234
262	IUPUI	-11.97	-12.34	-11.98	-12.10	0.2416	279
263	Loyola Marymount	-11.75	-12.36	-12.22	-12.11	0.3144	241
264	McNeese St.	-11.87	-12.47	-11.99	-12.11	0.2001	309
265	Columbia	-12.38	-12.44	-12.03	-12.28	0.4041	203
266	FIU	-12.12	-12.74	-12.44	-12.43	0.3032	246
267	Stony Brook	-12.45	-12.83	-12.14	-12.47	0.3574	225
268	Fairleigh Dickinson	-12.36	-12.76	-12.31	-12.48	0.2515	276
269	Saint Peter’s	-12.43	-12.69	-12.37	-12.50	0.3392	232
270	Santa Clara	-12.15	-12.82	-12.54	-12.50	0.2799	260
271	Southeast Missouri St.	-12.18	-12.97	-12.43	-12.53	0.2848	257
272	Fordham	-12.66	-12.69	-12.32	-12.56	0.2673	271
273	Oral Roberts	-12.31	-12.93	-12.55	-12.60	0.3013	247
274	Army	-12.65	-12.83	-12.41	-12.63	0.3186	239
275	Monmouth	-12.60	-12.89	-12.44	-12.64	0.4893	171
276	Jacksonville	-12.61	-13.00	-12.77	-12.79	0.1527	326
277	Eastern Illinois	-12.59	-13.38	-12.75	-12.91	0.2901	255
278	UTEP	-12.49	-13.35	-12.92	-12.92	0.2824	258
279	Central Connecticut	-12.84	-13.41	-13.05	-13.10	0.1931	312
280	California	-12.96	-13.02	-13.41	-13.13	0.3386	233
281	Delaware	-13.04	-13.42	-12.95	-13.14	0.3034	245
282	Jackson St.	-13.07	-13.40	-13.06	-13.18	0.1137	337
283	Texas A&M Corpus Chris	-12.98	-13.53	-13.22	-13.24	0.1975	310
284	The Citadel	-13.20	-13.87	-12.73	-13.27	0.1954	311
285	LIU Brooklyn	-13.12	-13.65	-13.24	-13.34	0.2682	270
286	Norfolk St.	-13.15	-13.70	-13.34	-13.40	0.1856	316
287	UMass Lowell	-13.40	-13.83	-13.21	-13.48	0.2149	298
288	St. Francis NY	-13.40	-13.81	-13.41	-13.54	0.2085	300
289	Alcorn St.	-13.62	-13.72	-13.61	-13.65	0.1096	338
290	Kennesaw St.	-13.59	-13.99	-13.59	-13.72	0.2179	294
291	Portland	-13.41	-14.03	-13.75	-13.73	0.2711	268
292	Nebraska Omaha	-13.39	-14.08	-13.78	-13.75	0.2733	265
293	Samford	-13.63	-14.39	-13.39	-13.80	0.2469	278
294	Drexel	-13.72	-14.14	-13.58	-13.81	0.2969	248
295	UMKC	-13.49	-14.36	-13.76	-13.87	0.2182	293
296	Green Bay	-13.76	-14.19	-13.83	-13.93	0.2757	263
297	Morgan St.	-13.88	-14.07	-13.91	-13.95	0.1718	324
298	Holy Cross	-14.27	-14.39	-13.89	-14.18	0.2272	288
299	Arkansas St.	-14.10	-14.58	-14.02	-14.23	0.2608	273
300	South Carolina St.	-14.14	-14.51	-14.07	-14.24	0.0789	343
301	UNC Wilmington	-14.21	-14.80	-14.09	-14.37	0.3268	236
302	New Hampshire	-14.30	-14.72	-14.11	-14.38	0.3089	243
303	South Florida	-14.35	-14.63	-14.33	-14.44	0.188	315
304	Arkansas Pine Bluff	-14.26	-14.72	-14.56	-14.51	0.1182	333
305	SIU Edwardsville	-14.31	-15.01	-14.41	-14.58	0.1827	319
306	Dartmouth	-14.67	-14.83	-14.34	-14.61	0.2575	275
307	Cal Poly	-14.22	-14.81	-14.90	-14.64	0.1843	317
308	Eastern Kentucky	-14.29	-15.22	-14.49	-14.67	0.2295	287
309	Quinnipiac	-14.54	-15.00	-14.51	-14.68	0.2249	289
310	VMI	-14.78	-15.42	-14.33	-14.84	0.122	331
311	Morehead St.	-14.74	-15.48	-14.68	-14.97	0.2329	285
312	UC Riverside	-14.62	-15.56	-15.45	-15.21	0.2347	283
313	Presbyterian	-15.19	-15.97	-14.86	-15.34	0.1349	330
314	Binghamton	-15.28	-15.77	-15.17	-15.41	0.2364	282
315	Stetson	-15.38	-15.82	-15.51	-15.57	0.1839	318
316	Alabama St.	-15.50	-15.85	-15.47	-15.61	0.0952	339
317	Incarnate Word	-15.62	-16.12	-15.71	-15.82	0.0927	341
318	James Madison	-15.70	-16.21	-15.69	-15.87	0.349	230
319	Chattanooga	-15.84	-16.67	-15.66	-16.06	0.216	295
320	Lafayette	-16.28	-16.33	-15.86	-16.16	0.2626	272
321	Tennessee Martin	-16.03	-16.73	-16.24	-16.33	0.2152	297
322	Siena	-16.37	-16.77	-16.24	-16.46	0.2398	280
323	Cleveland St.	-16.44	-16.76	-16.39	-16.53	0.1919	314
324	Charlotte	-16.45	-17.17	-16.61	-16.74	0.1929	313
325	Loyola MD	-16.88	-16.95	-16.57	-16.80	0.1794	321
326	Howard	-16.87	-17.18	-16.95	-17.00	0.1197	332
327	Sacred Heart	-16.83	-17.28	-16.92	-17.01	0.2015	307
328	Rice	-16.86	-17.66	-17.18	-17.23	0.204	304
329	Houston Baptist	-17.07	-17.57	-17.11	-17.25	0.1489	329
330	Florida A&M	-17.07	-17.57	-17.19	-17.28	0.0828	342
331	Youngstown St.	-17.07	-17.75	-17.21	-17.34	0.1728	322
332	Detroit	-17.19	-17.70	-17.17	-17.35	0.2012	308
333	San Jose St.	-16.90	-17.70	-17.51	-17.37	0.2132	299
334	Sacramento St.	-16.67	-17.91	-17.56	-17.38	0.2153	296
335	Pepperdine	-17.25	-17.99	-17.70	-17.65	0.2317	286
336	Cal St. Northridge	-17.31	-18.25	-18.29	-17.95	0.1491	328
337	Little Rock	-17.79	-18.58	-17.90	-18.09	0.2071	303
338	American	-18.23	-18.43	-17.84	-18.17	0.1526	327
339	Coppin St.	-18.24	-18.39	-18.30	-18.31	0.0669	345
340	Maryland Eastern Shore	-18.43	-18.71	-18.27	-18.47	0.0436	349
341	Northern Arizona	-18.01	-19.00	-18.74	-18.58	0.1167	335
342	Northwestern St.	-18.44	-18.76	-18.59	-18.60	0.0641	346
343	Marist	-18.46	-18.86	-18.52	-18.61	0.1805	320
344	Maine	-19.01	-19.38	-18.81	-19.07	0.1172	334
345	USC Upstate	-19.00	-19.35	-18.96	-19.10	0.1151	336
346	Chicago St.	-19.88	-20.50	-20.10	-20.16	0.0551	348
347	Longwood	-20.43	-21.11	-20.14	-20.56	0.0741	344
348	Mississippi Valley St.	-20.83	-21.21	-21.06	-21.03	0.0577	347
349	Alabama A&M	-21.31	-21.64	-21.56	-21.50	0.0369	351
350	Delaware St.	-22.16	-22.61	-22.26	-22.34	0.0419	350
351	Bryant	-22.75	-23.30	-22.79	-22.95	0.0942	340

WAB 2/24: Raising Arizona?

Arizona got caught. Let’s fast forward:

The biggest misconception I see about ending amateurism is that it would require schools to pay athletes salaries. That's a needlessly flawed model. Just give athletes the right to hire representation and profit off their name and likeness.

— Jeff Eisenberg (@JeffEisenberg) February 24, 2018

Now, the above would mean a booster could give a player $250,000 for signing some basketballs. Which is fine. I’m cool with that future, and would like to see it come to pass. I just want to be clear on what it would mean once players could openly accept payment. That’s the future I want, but we should recognize what it would mean.

As for WAB, I’ve been convinced that a floating baseline is correct. A standard baseline across ratings-systems is slightly inaccurate, and while the issues are minor, they’re real and there’s no reason to live with them.

What I want to do next is solve for the algebra problem from Hell. The implied Pythag for a .5000 percentile for every team. I can solve it team by team, but hardwiring an answer into the spreadsheet is going to be challenging.

Google doc here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Tsi90fKMaqW26tOUP6theXc3DlMpjGu6u2JnR3mXXkY/edit#gid=0

Rank WAB	School	WAB KP	WAB Sag	WAB BPI	WAB Avg	Pythag	Rank Pythag
1	Virginia	8.21	8.26	8.34	8.27	0.9691	1
2	Villanova	7.49	7.25	7.32	7.35	0.9681	2
3	Xavier	7.28	7.23	7.17	7.23	0.9178	12
4	Michigan St.	6.69	7.02	6.79	6.83	0.9578	5
5	Purdue	6.11	6.18	6.13	6.14	0.9585	4
6	Duke	6.06	5.83	5.9	5.93	0.9624	3
7	North Carolina	5.86	5.63	5.85	5.78	0.9373	7
8	Kansas	5.14	5.39	4.86	5.13	0.9361	8
9	Auburn	5.28	4.79	4.61	4.89	0.9144	13
10	Tennessee	4.25	4.24	4.08	4.19	0.9038	16
11	Texas Tech	4.04	4.47	4.02	4.18	0.9299	10
12	Ohio St.	4.11	4.17	4.2	4.16	0.9055	15
13	Michigan	3.47	3.71	3.65	3.61	0.8982	18
14	Cincinnati	3.64	3.65	3.47	3.59	0.9571	6
15	Clemson	3.56	3.57	3.62	3.58	0.8982	17
16	Gonzaga	3.55	3.22	3.03	3.27	0.9268	11
17	West Virginia	2.98	3.32	2.79	3.03	0.9303	9
18	Rhode Island	2.94	2.86	2.87	2.89	0.8752	28
19	Wichita St.	2.83	2.82	2.6	2.75	0.9139	14
20	Arizona	2.79	2.84	1.94	2.52	0.8928	19
21	Kentucky	2.42	2.14	2.17	2.24	0.8855	22
22	Nevada	2.76	2.04	1.91	2.24	0.8806	24
23	Kansas St.	2.04	2.43	1.93	2.13	0.8389	45
24	Virginia Tech	2.22	2.05	1.98	2.08	0.8737	31
25	TCU	1.73	2.07	1.91	1.90	0.8901	21
26	Middle Tennessee	2.12	1.48	1.77	1.79	0.8221	50
27	Houston	1.63	1.49	1.68	1.60	0.8804	25
28	Florida St.	1.54	1.58	1.45	1.52	0.8783	26
29	Saint Mary’s	1.94	1.45	1.07	1.49	0.8832	23
30	Miami FL	1.54	1.46	1.3	1.43	0.867	37
31	North Carolina St.	1.29	1.12	1.34	1.25	0.8245	49
32	Oklahoma	1	1.52	1.16	1.23	0.8515	42
33	Butler	1.17	1.09	1.34	1.20	0.8919	20
34	Creighton	1.23	1.26	1.07	1.19	0.8778	27
35	Nebraska	1.03	1.43	1.1	1.19	0.7957	58
36	Arkansas	1.21	0.99	0.68	0.96	0.8539	40
37	Seton Hall	0.9	0.9	0.93	0.91	0.8668	38
38	St. Bonaventure	0.82	0.72	0.84	0.79	0.7925	62
39	Louisiana Lafayette	0.94	0.51	0.75	0.73	0.7995	57
40	Texas A&M	0.76	0.64	0.45	0.62	0.8671	36
41	Loyola Chicago	1.08	0.41	0.13	0.54	0.8115	55
42	Mississippi St.	0.73	0.51	0.24	0.49	0.8146	53
43	Arizona St.	0.6	0.87	-0.09	0.46	0.852	41
44	Boise St.	0.73	0.34	0.13	0.40	0.8201	51
45	New Mexico St.	0.6	0.19	0.32	0.37	0.7823	65
46	Baylor	-0.08	0.49	0.28	0.23	0.8696	34
47	Texas	-0.02	0.34	0.09	0.14	0.8594	39
48	Louisville	0.11	0.17	0.03	0.10	0.8704	33
49	Providence	0.1	-0.01	0.2	0.10	0.7704	71
50	Florida	0.33	-0.04	-0.19	0.03	0.8741	30
51	Missouri	0.3	-0.07	-0.39	-0.05	0.847	43
52	Maryland	-0.18	-0.07	0.08	-0.06	0.868	35
53	Marquette	-0.25	-0.15	0.03	-0.12	0.8313	47
54	Alabama	0.03	-0.36	-0.45	-0.26	0.8433	44
55	UCLA	-0.09	0.02	-0.73	-0.27	0.8145	54
56	Utah	-0.03	0.01	-0.83	-0.28	0.7952	59
57	Syracuse	-0.43	-0.33	-0.48	-0.41	0.8354	46
58	South Dakota St.	-0.16	-0.54	-0.63	-0.44	0.7187	86
59	Vermont	-0.44	-0.72	-0.31	-0.49	0.7751	70
60	USC	-0.44	-0.3	-1.25	-0.66	0.8312	48
61	Old Dominion	-0.53	-1	-1.01	-0.85	0.8037	56
62	Oklahoma St.	-1.05	-0.61	-0.9	-0.85	0.7827	64
63	Western Kentucky	-0.75	-1.21	-1.04	-1.00	0.7755	69
64	LSU	-1.01	-1.15	-1.35	-1.17	0.782	66
65	Murray St.	-0.87	-1.48	-1.22	-1.19	0.7555	78
66	Penn St.	-1.34	-1.2	-1.42	-1.32	0.875	29
67	Georgia	-1.13	-1.52	-1.57	-1.41	0.7618	77
68	Notre Dame	-1.53	-1.57	-1.58	-1.56	0.8719	32
69	Stephen F. Austin	-1.35	-1.79	-1.65	-1.60	0.6108	117
70	College of Charleston	-1.58	-1.7	-1.61	-1.63	0.6245	113
71	Temple	-1.65	-1.97	-1.61	-1.74	0.7312	81
72	Washington	-1.52	-1.52	-2.29	-1.78	0.668	103
73	East Tennessee St.	-1.76	-2.24	-1.6	-1.87	0.7099	88
74	BYU	-1.55	-2.07	-2.15	-1.92	0.7684	72
75	UNC Greensboro	-1.86	-2.35	-1.6	-1.94	0.6999	94
76	South Dakota	-1.61	-2.08	-2.17	-1.95	0.7672	74
77	Boston College	-1.92	-2	-2	-1.97	0.7258	84
78	UCF	-2.17	-2.26	-2.27	-2.23	0.7056	92
79	Fresno St.	-1.95	-2.31	-2.55	-2.27	0.7772	67
80	Buffalo	-2.09	-2.44	-2.51	-2.35	0.7064	89
81	Georgetown	-2.43	-2.41	-2.37	-2.40	0.6981	96
82	Indiana	-2.64	-2.3	-2.4	-2.45	0.776	68
83	Montana	-1.84	-2.72	-2.79	-2.45	0.669	102
84	Belmont	-2.36	-2.94	-2.75	-2.68	0.7228	85
85	Oregon	-2.49	-2.44	-3.18	-2.70	0.793	61
86	UC Santa Barbara	-2.25	-2.78	-3.19	-2.74	0.5697	141
87	Rider	-2.56	-2.89	-2.83	-2.76	0.5813	130
88	St. John’s	-2.83	-2.86	-2.83	-2.84	0.7683	73
89	Penn	-3	-2.93	-3.03	-2.99	0.6135	115
90	South Carolina	-2.6	-3.17	-3.23	-3.00	0.7421	79
91	Iowa St.	-3.12	-2.94	-3.15	-3.07	0.714	87
92	UNLV	-2.7	-3.13	-3.41	-3.08	0.7042	93
93	Bucknell	-3.33	-3.31	-3.13	-3.26	0.6811	100
94	Utah Valley	-2.86	-3.54	-3.64	-3.35	0.6788	101
95	Northeastern	-3.32	-3.56	-3.4	-3.43	0.6378	110
96	Memphis	-3.38	-3.61	-3.42	-3.47	0.5526	149
97	Lipscomb	-3.35	-3.77	-3.49	-3.54	0.4696	176
98	Wagner	-3.4	-3.71	-3.6	-3.57	0.5044	166
99	Tulsa	-3.53	-3.47	-3.73	-3.58	0.632	111
100	San Diego St.	-3.3	-3.82	-4.04	-3.72	0.7922	63
101	Furman	-3.58	-4.09	-3.51	-3.73	0.7059	91
102	Northern Kentucky	-3.59	-3.95	-3.7	-3.75	0.7259	83
103	Davidson	-3.71	-3.79	-3.93	-3.81	0.8199	52
104	Marshall	-3.56	-4.08	-3.91	-3.85	0.5706	139
105	Wyoming	-3.4	-4.11	-4.05	-3.85	0.5819	129
106	Northwestern	-4.05	-3.89	-4.01	-3.98	0.7635	75
107	Toledo	-3.88	-4.01	-4.16	-4.02	0.6076	118
108	SMU	-3.98	-4.19	-4.13	-4.10	0.7951	60
109	Wisconsin	-4.28	-4.15	-4.12	-4.18	0.7634	76
110	Georgia St.	-4.04	-4.42	-4.2	-4.22	0.6543	105
111	UNC Asheville	-4.09	-4.86	-3.81	-4.25	0.4693	177
112	Wright St.	-4.06	-4.56	-4.27	-4.30	0.5516	150
113	Idaho	-3.75	-4.69	-4.58	-4.34	0.5974	122
114	Southern Illinois	-3.87	-4.8	-4.66	-4.44	0.5894	125
115	Wofford	-4.28	-4.81	-4.24	-4.44	0.5035	168
116	UC Davis	-3.83	-4.72	-4.84	-4.46	0.5613	146
117	Minnesota	-4.55	-4.39	-4.51	-4.48	0.6959	97
118	Weber St.	-4.04	-4.88	-4.63	-4.52	0.5771	135
119	Stanford	-4.3	-4.28	-5.04	-4.54	0.6991	95
120	Ball St.	-4.49	-4.46	-4.88	-4.61	0.5338	156
121	Colorado	-4.51	-4.44	-5.15	-4.70	0.6061	119
122	Connecticut	-4.76	-4.76	-4.58	-4.70	0.5209	162
123	Bradley	-4.29	-5.22	-5.21	-4.91	0.5854	127
124	Albany	-4.9	-5.14	-4.78	-4.94	0.5825	128
125	Nicholls St.	-4.72	-5.35	-4.97	-5.01	0.4654	178
126	UMBC	-5.14	-5.35	-4.83	-5.11	0.4129	198
127	Hofstra	-5.04	-5.34	-5.16	-5.18	0.5459	151
128	Vanderbilt	-4.87	-5.43	-5.29	-5.20	0.7373	80
129	Mississippi	-4.83	-5.53	-5.46	-5.27	0.6959	98
130	VCU	-5.21	-5.34	-5.34	-5.30	0.5938	123
131	Cal St. Fullerton	-5.06	-5.63	-5.79	-5.49	0.4486	184
132	Northern Colorado	-4.81	-5.89	-5.94	-5.55	0.5652	143
133	William & Mary	-5.4	-5.71	-5.57	-5.56	0.4973	169
134	Canisius	-5.33	-5.71	-5.72	-5.59	0.5914	124
135	Seattle	-5.2	-5.85	-5.84	-5.63	0.4182	196
136	San Diego	-5.25	-5.75	-5.92	-5.64	0.5733	137
137	Florida Gulf Coast	-5.45	-5.81	-5.71	-5.66	0.6245	114
138	Grand Canyon	-5.38	-5.87	-5.91	-5.72	0.6524	106
139	Portland St.	-5.24	-6.01	-6.17	-5.81	0.544	152
140	Winthrop	-5.71	-6.25	-5.58	-5.85	0.573	138
141	Illinois St.	-5.24	-6.2	-6.21	-5.88	0.5261	161
142	Southeastern Louisiana	-5.7	-6.17	-5.91	-5.93	0.3606	223
143	Harvard	-5.96	-5.94	-5.9	-5.93	0.5374	155
144	San Francisco	-5.74	-6.32	-6.35	-6.14	0.5554	148
145	UAB	-5.88	-6.43	-6.27	-6.19	0.6381	109
146	Georgia Tech	-6.3	-6.46	-6.37	-6.38	0.6254	112
147	Wake Forest	-6.23	-6.61	-6.31	-6.38	0.7281	82
148	Utah St.	-5.94	-6.71	-6.5	-6.38	0.5745	136
149	DePaul	-6.48	-6.27	-6.43	-6.39	0.6586	104
150	Georgia Southern	-6.17	-6.64	-6.38	-6.40	0.5701	140
151	UT Arlington	-6.21	-6.74	-6.3	-6.42	0.5884	126
152	Saint Louis	-6.39	-6.49	-6.51	-6.46	0.5807	131
153	Tennessee Tech	-6.24	-6.83	-6.47	-6.51	0.368	219
154	Hawaii	-6.21	-6.68	-6.68	-6.52	0.3724	216
155	Austin Peay	-6.26	-6.79	-6.57	-6.54	0.4072	203
156	UTSA	-6.22	-6.84	-6.62	-6.56	0.4409	187
157	Radford	-6.43	-6.99	-6.28	-6.57	0.4474	185
158	Illinois	-6.54	-6.61	-6.66	-6.60	0.6843	99
159	St. Francis PA	-6.46	-6.82	-6.68	-6.65	0.4079	202
160	Jacksonville St.	-6.3	-6.93	-6.74	-6.66	0.5409	153
161	Iona	-6.53	-6.88	-6.7	-6.70	0.6058	120
162	Rutgers	-6.9	-6.8	-6.71	-6.80	0.5785	134
163	Iowa	-6.76	-6.87	-6.82	-6.82	0.7063	90
164	Eastern Michigan	-6.66	-6.88	-7.07	-6.87	0.4567	183
165	Fort Wayne	-6.64	-7.17	-6.92	-6.91	0.5316	158
166	New Mexico	-6.51	-7	-7.23	-6.91	0.6123	116
167	Sam Houston St.	-6.66	-7.17	-7.01	-6.95	0.3832	211
168	Oregon St.	-6.93	-6.71	-7.53	-7.06	0.6437	108
169	Drake	-6.46	-7.24	-7.51	-7.07	0.5035	167
170	Tulane	-7.06	-7.14	-7.1	-7.10	0.5175	164
171	Louisiana Monroe	-7.05	-7.4	-6.94	-7.13	0.3576	225
172	Niagara	-7.11	-7.25	-7.21	-7.19	0.4123	199
173	Navy	-7.24	-7.31	-7.03	-7.19	0.4048	205
174	Eastern Washington	-6.54	-7.67	-7.67	-7.29	0.5309	159
175	Northern Iowa	-6.88	-7.6	-7.56	-7.35	0.5794	132
176	Missouri St.	-6.67	-7.72	-7.67	-7.35	0.6457	107
177	Western Michigan	-7.06	-7.39	-7.63	-7.36	0.4848	171
178	Oakland	-7.21	-7.46	-7.45	-7.37	0.5275	160
179	Hartford	-7.33	-7.76	-7.35	-7.48	0.3429	230
180	Savannah St.	-7.41	-7.79	-7.38	-7.53	0.1726	325
181	Louisiana Tech	-7.14	-7.89	-7.63	-7.55	0.5658	142
182	Evansville	-7.08	-7.94	-7.92	-7.65	0.5064	165
183	North Carolina A&T	-7.46	-7.79	-7.71	-7.65	0.2109	301
184	Mercer	-7.44	-8.06	-7.49	-7.66	0.6023	121
185	Towson	-7.59	-7.81	-7.7	-7.70	0.5789	133
186	George Washington	-7.97	-7.86	-7.73	-7.85	0.4425	186
187	Dayton	-7.91	-8.24	-7.99	-8.05	0.5628	145
188	Bowling Green	-7.86	-8.24	-8.2	-8.10	0.3475	229
189	Tennessee St.	-7.92	-8.36	-8.06	-8.11	0.4052	204
190	Colgate	-8.15	-8.21	-8.03	-8.13	0.4229	192
191	Yale	-8.27	-8.18	-8.16	-8.20	0.4717	175
192	UC Irvine	-7.55	-8.45	-8.65	-8.22	0.5598	147
193	New Orleans	-8.07	-8.46	-8.25	-8.26	0.2968	251
194	Grambling St.	-8.18	-8.47	-8.46	-8.37	0.2139	297
195	North Texas	-7.97	-8.55	-8.64	-8.39	0.433	190
196	Lamar	-8.15	-8.52	-8.53	-8.40	0.419	194
197	Washington St.	-8.2	-8.2	-9.04	-8.48	0.4285	191
198	Illinois Chicago	-8.29	-8.64	-8.53	-8.49	0.417	197
199	Pacific	-8.18	-8.77	-8.96	-8.64	0.4777	174
200	Lehigh	-8.78	-8.8	-8.61	-8.73	0.3672	220
201	Duquesne	-8.66	-8.63	-8.92	-8.74	0.4597	180
202	George Mason	-8.7	-8.8	-8.74	-8.75	0.3965	209
203	Miami OH	-8.51	-8.91	-9.07	-8.83	0.422	193
204	Brown	-9.13	-9.03	-8.97	-9.04	0.2976	250
205	Saint Joseph’s	-9.06	-9.05	-9.03	-9.05	0.5639	144
206	Central Michigan	-8.99	-9.21	-9.48	-9.23	0.4571	182
207	Mount St. Mary’s	-9.07	-9.32	-9.31	-9.23	0.3135	241
208	Idaho St.	-8.82	-9.57	-9.44	-9.28	0.2792	261
209	Liberty	-9.13	-9.81	-9.11	-9.35	0.4646	179
210	Elon	-9.14	-9.61	-9.38	-9.38	0.3683	218
211	Long Beach St.	-8.93	-9.39	-9.86	-9.39	0.3717	217
212	Southern	-9.39	-9.45	-9.56	-9.47	0.1742	324
213	Denver	-9.05	-9.72	-9.73	-9.50	0.338	233
214	Southern Miss	-9.16	-10.03	-9.64	-9.61	0.3355	235
215	UT Rio Grande Valley	-9.28	-9.78	-9.83	-9.63	0.2978	249
216	Cornell	-9.68	-9.82	-9.59	-9.70	0.2724	266
217	Princeton	-9.69	-9.76	-9.77	-9.74	0.4576	181
218	Valparaiso	-9.23	-9.93	-10.09	-9.75	0.5392	154
219	Bethune Cookman	-9.55	-9.75	-10.01	-9.77	0.1986	309
220	South Alabama	-9.61	-10.02	-9.73	-9.79	0.3841	210
221	La Salle	-9.89	-9.88	-9.63	-9.80	0.5327	157
222	Western Illinois	-9.54	-10.01	-9.93	-9.83	0.2538	277
223	Fairfield	-9.7	-10.14	-9.83	-9.89	0.3634	222
224	Troy	-9.69	-10.22	-9.81	-9.91	0.4812	173
225	Kent St.	-9.65	-10.05	-10.05	-9.92	0.3991	207
226	Pittsburgh	-10.07	-10.06	-10.05	-10.06	0.356	226
227	Abilene Christian	-9.86	-10.28	-10.16	-10.10	0.2791	262
228	North Dakota St.	-9.72	-10.4	-10.35	-10.16	0.4825	172
229	Hampton	-10.04	-10.34	-10.22	-10.20	0.2901	253
230	Cal St. Bakersfield	-9.81	-10.5	-10.3	-10.20	0.3187	239
231	Colorado St.	-9.88	-10.37	-10.6	-10.28	0.353	227
232	Richmond	-10.21	-10.51	-10.15	-10.29	0.4362	188
233	Air Force	-9.97	-10.47	-10.62	-10.35	0.2687	269
234	Central Arkansas	-10.14	-10.43	-10.62	-10.40	0.3776	213
235	Ohio	-10.14	-10.48	-10.57	-10.40	0.4188	195
236	Indiana St.	-9.83	-10.79	-10.71	-10.44	0.5204	163
237	Robert Morris	-10.17	-10.74	-10.53	-10.48	0.3169	240
238	High Point	-10.4	-10.93	-10.39	-10.57	0.3975	208
239	North Carolina Central	-10.37	-10.63	-10.75	-10.58	0.2256	289
240	Campbell	-10.46	-10.99	-10.35	-10.60	0.3807	212
241	Akron	-10.5	-10.65	-10.82	-10.66	0.292	252
242	Massachusetts	-10.7	-10.65	-10.87	-10.74	0.4331	189
243	Milwaukee	-10.63	-10.92	-10.71	-10.75	0.3659	221
244	NJIT	-10.68	-10.86	-10.77	-10.77	0.3051	244
245	North Florida	-10.6	-10.89	-10.85	-10.78	0.2229	291
246	East Carolina	-10.81	-10.8	-10.81	-10.81	0.2345	283
247	Texas St.	-10.56	-11.15	-10.79	-10.83	0.3771	215
248	Southern Utah	-10.35	-11.13	-11.15	-10.88	0.2194	293
249	Western Carolina	-10.78	-11.38	-10.58	-10.91	0.2017	307
250	Charleston Southern	-10.85	-11.32	-10.68	-10.95	0.2834	258
251	Montana St.	-10.39	-11.37	-11.23	-11.00	0.2869	257
252	Texas Southern	-10.92	-11.12	-11.2	-11.08	0.2737	265
253	North Dakota	-10.49	-11.56	-11.33	-11.13	0.2621	273
254	Gardner Webb	-11.02	-11.59	-10.87	-11.16	0.2651	271
255	Florida Atlantic	-10.86	-11.36	-11.28	-11.17	0.2872	256
256	Northern Illinois	-11.17	-11.25	-11.42	-11.28	0.3372	234
257	Prairie View A&M	-10.99	-11.38	-11.55	-11.31	0.2492	278
258	Boston University	-11.37	-11.41	-11.21	-11.33	0.3207	238
259	Columbia	-11.4	-11.42	-11.23	-11.35	0.4114	200
260	Manhattan	-11.33	-11.52	-11.54	-11.46	0.3994	206
261	Southeast Missouri St.	-11.12	-11.86	-11.56	-11.51	0.2882	255
262	Coastal Carolina	-11.39	-11.87	-11.44	-11.57	0.4104	201
263	Fordham	-11.7	-11.66	-11.57	-11.64	0.2696	268
264	Army	-11.64	-11.78	-11.54	-11.65	0.3227	237
265	Stony Brook	-11.61	-11.88	-11.53	-11.67	0.3602	224
266	Monmouth	-11.75	-11.94	-11.79	-11.83	0.4922	170
267	Appalachian St.	-11.93	-12.2	-11.93	-12.02	0.3773	214
268	IUPUI	-11.91	-12.23	-12.08	-12.07	0.2416	280
269	McNeese St.	-11.84	-12.39	-12.13	-12.12	0.1972	310
270	Loyola Marymount	-11.86	-12.33	-12.49	-12.23	0.3131	242
271	Santa Clara	-11.89	-12.43	-12.46	-12.26	0.2809	260
272	Texas A&M Corpus Chris	-11.96	-12.46	-12.38	-12.27	0.201	308
273	California	-12.18	-12.06	-12.76	-12.33	0.3409	231
274	Fairleigh Dickinson	-12.29	-12.65	-12.38	-12.44	0.2539	276
275	FIU	-12.11	-12.69	-12.6	-12.47	0.3044	245
276	Saint Peter’s	-12.38	-12.57	-12.49	-12.48	0.3406	232
277	St. Francis NY	-12.45	-12.79	-12.57	-12.60	0.2074	302
278	Oral Roberts	-12.29	-12.81	-12.77	-12.62	0.3013	247
279	UMass Lowell	-12.53	-12.89	-12.51	-12.64	0.2139	298
280	Jacksonville	-12.59	-12.91	-12.89	-12.80	0.1519	327
281	Portland	-12.5	-13.02	-13.02	-12.85	0.2744	264
282	Drexel	-12.71	-13.05	-12.81	-12.86	0.2981	248
283	Nebraska Omaha	-12.47	-13.06	-13.05	-12.86	0.2815	259
284	Eastern Illinois	-12.51	-13.25	-12.89	-12.88	0.2888	254
285	UTEP	-12.49	-13.27	-13.1	-12.95	0.2716	267
286	Morgan St.	-12.96	-13.09	-13.07	-13.04	0.1759	322
287	Jackson St.	-12.95	-13.25	-13.07	-13.09	0.1167	334
288	Central Connecticut	-12.82	-13.33	-13.19	-13.11	0.1931	313
289	Delaware	-13.03	-13.34	-13.18	-13.18	0.3033	246
290	The Citadel	-13.09	-13.73	-12.81	-13.21	0.1954	312
291	Arkansas St.	-13.17	-13.57	-13.27	-13.34	0.2608	274
292	LIU Brooklyn	-13.1	-13.59	-13.34	-13.34	0.2657	270
293	Norfolk St.	-13.09	-13.61	-13.38	-13.36	0.1847	316
294	Holy Cross	-13.42	-13.47	-13.21	-13.37	0.2283	287
295	UMKC	-13.04	-13.74	-13.38	-13.39	0.221	292
296	South Florida	-13.42	-13.59	-13.59	-13.53	0.1888	315
297	SIU Edwardsville	-13.35	-13.99	-13.67	-13.67	0.1836	319
298	Alcorn St.	-13.62	-13.66	-13.75	-13.68	0.1108	338
299	Kennesaw St.	-13.55	-13.9	-13.73	-13.73	0.2169	296
300	Samford	-13.56	-14.26	-13.51	-13.78	0.2491	279
301	Eastern Kentucky	-13.4	-14.23	-13.81	-13.81	0.2295	286
302	Dartmouth	-13.84	-13.98	-13.72	-13.85	0.2563	275
303	Green Bay	-13.76	-14.13	-14.04	-13.98	0.2744	263
304	South Carolina St.	-14.13	-14.44	-14.23	-14.27	0.0762	343
305	New Hampshire	-14.23	-14.6	-14.2	-14.34	0.3089	243
306	Binghamton	-14.33	-14.74	-14.34	-14.47	0.2411	281
307	Presbyterian	-14.3	-15	-14.15	-14.48	0.1371	330
308	UNC Wilmington	-14.29	-14.79	-14.38	-14.49	0.3242	236
309	UC Riverside	-13.99	-14.76	-14.89	-14.55	0.2306	285
310	Arkansas Pine Bluff	-14.31	-14.67	-14.7	-14.56	0.1175	333
311	Cal Poly	-14.17	-14.67	-15.03	-14.62	0.1842	317
312	Quinnipiac	-14.49	-14.89	-14.65	-14.68	0.2239	290
313	Alabama St.	-14.59	-14.85	-14.68	-14.71	0.0957	339
314	VMI	-14.7	-15.3	-14.43	-14.81	0.1219	331
315	Morehead St.	-14.7	-15.39	-14.88	-14.99	0.2308	284
316	James Madison	-14.78	-15.22	-14.98	-14.99	0.349	228
317	Lafayette	-15.39	-15.4	-15.11	-15.30	0.2649	272
318	Stetson	-15.35	-15.74	-15.63	-15.57	0.1839	318
319	Incarnate Word	-15.69	-16.13	-15.92	-15.91	0.0887	341
320	Loyola MD	-16.03	-16.01	-15.89	-15.98	0.1794	321
321	Charlotte	-15.7	-16.32	-16.07	-16.03	0.1971	311
322	Chattanooga	-15.77	-16.55	-15.79	-16.04	0.2171	294
323	Sacred Heart	-15.91	-16.28	-16.16	-16.12	0.2024	306
324	Rice	-15.9	-16.62	-16.42	-16.31	0.204	305
325	Youngstown St.	-16	-16.62	-16.37	-16.33	0.1745	323
326	Houston Baptist	-16.14	-16.55	-16.37	-16.35	0.1497	329
327	Detroit	-16.19	-16.62	-16.37	-16.39	0.204	304
328	Tennessee Martin	-16.11	-16.72	-16.48	-16.44	0.2123	300
329	Siena	-16.32	-16.63	-16.41	-16.45	0.2398	282
330	Sacramento St.	-15.76	-16.86	-16.78	-16.47	0.2171	295
331	Cleveland St.	-16.46	-16.7	-16.57	-16.58	0.19	314
332	San Jose St.	-16.13	-16.82	-16.9	-16.62	0.2123	299
333	Howard	-16.86	-17.11	-17.09	-17.02	0.1191	332
334	Cal St. Northridge	-16.37	-17.22	-17.5	-17.03	0.1504	328
335	Little Rock	-16.78	-17.49	-17.12	-17.13	0.2061	303
336	American	-17.3	-17.47	-17.09	-17.29	0.1548	326
337	Florida A&M	-17.05	-17.46	-17.35	-17.29	0.0823	342
338	Maryland Eastern Shore	-17.3	-17.56	-17.33	-17.40	0.0445	349
339	Northwestern St.	-17.41	-17.67	-17.71	-17.60	0.0657	346
340	Northern Arizona	-17.08	-17.97	-17.98	-17.68	0.1167	335
341	Pepperdine	-17.28	-17.9	-17.92	-17.70	0.2279	288
342	Coppin St.	-18.2	-18.28	-18.4	-18.29	0.0672	345
343	Maine	-18.25	-18.54	-18.26	-18.35	0.1159	336
344	Marist	-18.42	-18.75	-18.65	-18.61	0.1829	320
345	USC Upstate	-19.03	-19.28	-19.15	-19.15	0.1146	337
346	Chicago St.	-18.96	-19.45	-19.34	-19.25	0.0546	348
347	Longwood	-19.43	-20.04	-19.3	-19.59	0.0761	344
348	Mississippi Valley St.	-19.74	-20.08	-20.12	-19.98	0.0577	347
349	Alabama A&M	-20.35	-20.63	-20.73	-20.57	0.0376	351
350	Delaware St.	-21.11	-21.53	-21.34	-21.33	0.043	350
351	Bryant	-21.82	-22.28	-22.07	-22.06	0.0927	340

WAB 2011: Virginia Tech got hosed

Running the KenPom-WAB’s, four teams stood out to me:

Rank	School	WAB	Pythag	Seed
43	Virginia Tech	0.46	0.8614	NULL
64	Tennessee	-1.69	0.8205	9
72	Southern California	-2.1	0.8371	11
76	Virginia Commonwealth	-2.36	0.7226	11

Tennessee was safely in. USC and VCU faced off in a play-in game. VCU won and went on a run that sent them to the Final Four. Tennessee got pounded by Michigan 75-45. Woof. Virginia Tech got left out. Now, Virginia Tech was a fairly strong team, playing in the ACC, so I don’t think the issue was whether they were one of the 37 best at-large teams. Moreover, their resume was solid. It was certainly better than Tennessee’s, or USC’s, or VCU’s. I’ve included hyperlinks to their RPI data. USC was 80th. VCU was 114th in SOS. I can’t say this was just a case of strength of schedule trumping strength of record. I’m honestly not sure what this is. Harvard and Saint Mary’s would have been better picks than VCU and USC. As for Tennessee, they were a #9 seed with that resume? Just baffling.

As for the explanations given… well, they don’t tell us much:

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/tournament/2011/news/story?id=6214265

Finally, confession time: I ran these numbers three times just because I couldn’t believe BYU was seventh in the WAB standings. Somehow I remembered San Diego State, but completely forgot about BYU. Oops!

Rank	School	WAB	Pythag	Seed
1	Ohio St.	10.95	0.9699	1
2	Kansas	10.07	0.9592	1
3	San Diego St.	9.00	0.9494	2
4	Duke	8.57	0.9642	1
5	Notre Dame	7.74	0.9317	2
6	Pittsburgh	7.42	0.9523	1
7	Brigham Young	7.30	0.9280	3
8	Connecticut	7.00	0.9176	3
9	North Carolina	6.58	0.9234	2
10	Purdue	6.29	0.9477	3
11	Syracuse	6.10	0.9268	3
12	Texas	5.54	0.9546	4
13	Wisconsin	5.01	0.9376	4
14	Florida	4.62	0.8956	2
15	Louisville	4.57	0.9338	4
16	Georgetown	4.51	0.8900	6
17	Arizona	4.49	0.8854	5
18	Kentucky	4.29	0.9415	4
19	Utah St.	3.85	0.9108	12
20	Cincinnati	3.50	0.9056	6
21	West Virginia	3.16	0.9050	5
22	St. John’s	2.88	0.8699	6
23	Nevada Las Vegas	2.87	0.8952	8
24	Texas A&M	2.45	0.8499	7
25	Old Dominion	2.33	0.8333	9
26	Temple	2.20	0.8737	7
27	Kansas St.	2.18	0.8802	5
28	Xavier	2.06	0.8610	6
29	Richmond	1.70	0.8505	12
30	Villanova	1.48	0.8806	9
31	Michigan St.	1.32	0.8437	10
32	Missouri	1.23	0.8610	11
33	Vanderbilt	1.16	0.8685	5
34	Washington	1.15	0.9193	7
35	Belmont	1.10	0.8937	13
36	Michigan	1.07	0.8486	8
37	Penn St.	0.94	0.8302	10
38	George Mason	0.94	0.8837	8
39	Illinois	0.90	0.9005	9
40	UCLA	0.78	0.8281	7
41	Marquette	0.72	0.8767	11
42	Florida St.	0.47	0.8585	10
43	Virginia Tech	0.46	0.8614	NULL
44	St. Mary’s	0.21	0.8448	NULL
45	Oakland	0.15	0.7932	13
46	Memphis	0.08	0.6898	12
47	Harvard	0.07	0.7744	NULL
48	Princeton	0.05	0.7304	13
49	Gonzaga	0.02	0.8652	11
50	Clemson	0.00	0.8837	12
51	Cleveland St.	-0.26	0.7892	NULL
52	Butler	-0.28	0.8387	8
53	Georgia	-0.43	0.7960	10
54	Boston College	-0.47	0.7747	NULL
55	UAB	-0.63	0.8034	12
56	Colorado	-0.76	0.8074	NULL
57	Northwestern	-0.87	0.7857	NULL
58	Long Island	-1.21	0.6416	15
59	Missouri St.	-1.24	0.7489	NULL
60	Washington St.	-1.40	0.8313	NULL
61	Coastal Carolina	-1.40	0.6478	NULL
62	Oklahoma St.	-1.41	0.7579	NULL
63	Minnesota	-1.64	0.8025	NULL
64	Tennessee	-1.69	0.8205	9
65	Alabama	-1.70	0.8120	NULL
66	New Mexico	-1.72	0.8423	NULL
67	Colorado St.	-1.77	0.7617	NULL
68	Wichita St.	-1.87	0.8161	NULL
69	California	-1.96	0.7716	NULL
70	Bucknell	-1.97	0.7024	14
71	Texas El Paso	-1.98	0.7793	NULL
72	Southern California	-2.10	0.8371	11
73	Fairfield	-2.12	0.6792	NULL
74	Maryland	-2.14	0.8487	NULL
75	Nebraska	-2.27	0.8223	NULL
76	Virginia Commonwealth	-2.36	0.7226	11
77	Miami FL	-2.71	0.7918	NULL
78	Southern Mississippi	-2.78	0.7579	NULL
79	Drexel	-2.81	0.6801	NULL
80	Long Beach St.	-2.85	0.6902	NULL
81	Marshall	-2.94	0.7245	NULL
82	Vermont	-2.95	0.5857	NULL
83	Valparaiso	-3.04	0.6845	NULL
84	College of Charleston	-3.08	0.7395	NULL
85	Dayton	-3.12	0.6815	NULL
86	Portland	-3.47	0.6733	NULL
87	Baylor	-3.49	0.7408	NULL
88	Rider	-3.53	0.6363	NULL
89	James Madison	-3.55	0.6644	NULL
90	Morehead St.	-3.63	0.6830	13
91	Hofstra	-3.65	0.5784	NULL
92	American	-3.75	0.4860	NULL
93	Murray St.	-3.77	0.5841	NULL
94	Mississippi	-4.10	0.7384	NULL
95	Kent St.	-4.18	0.6400	NULL
96	North Carolina St.	-4.18	0.6820	NULL
97	Virginia	-4.20	0.6610	NULL
98	Central Florida	-4.29	0.6601	NULL
99	Rutgers	-4.29	0.7463	NULL
100	East Tennessee St.	-4.43	0.6274	NULL
101	Northern Colorado	-4.44	0.6244	15
102	Rhode Island	-4.66	0.6096	NULL
103	Arkansas	-4.67	0.6381	NULL
104	Seton Hall	-4.67	0.8245	NULL
105	Iona	-4.67	0.7830	NULL
106	Duquesne	-4.68	0.8195	NULL
107	Montana	-4.68	0.6662	NULL
108	Wofford	-4.79	0.6911	14
109	Boise St.	-4.82	0.7402	NULL
110	Furman	-4.88	0.5657	NULL
111	Wisconsin Milwaukee	-4.88	0.5691	NULL
112	Florida Atlantic	-4.95	0.4622	NULL
113	Tulsa	-5.07	0.6874	NULL
114	Indiana St.	-5.16	0.6309	14
115	Providence	-5.27	0.6914	NULL
116	Air Force	-5.38	0.6246	NULL
117	St. Peter’s	-5.48	0.5985	14
118	Hampton	-5.53	0.3881	16
119	Iowa St.	-5.53	0.7307	NULL
120	Northern Iowa	-5.54	0.6134	NULL
121	Mississippi St.	-5.61	0.5808	NULL
122	South Carolina	-5.69	0.5859	NULL
123	Jacksonville	-5.79	0.4973	NULL
124	San Francisco	-5.83	0.5527	NULL
125	IUPUI	-5.85	0.5973	NULL
126	Akron	-5.85	0.6049	15
127	IUPU Fort Wayne	-5.85	0.4758	NULL
128	Quinnipiac	-5.87	0.5066	NULL
129	Hawaii	-5.90	0.5140	NULL
130	Oregon	-5.96	0.6804	NULL
131	Stanford	-6.21	0.6748	NULL
132	Oklahoma	-6.27	0.5693	NULL
133	Wright St.	-6.44	0.6419	NULL
134	St. Bonaventure	-6.48	0.5668	NULL
135	Idaho	-6.58	0.5804	NULL
136	McNeese St.	-6.58	0.4194	NULL
137	Northern Arizona	-6.60	0.6073	NULL
138	UC Santa Barbara	-6.73	0.6142	15
139	Utah	-6.79	0.5843	NULL
140	Lipscomb	-6.83	0.5349	NULL
141	Creighton	-6.84	0.6249	NULL
142	Santa Clara	-6.84	0.5501	NULL
143	Western Michigan	-6.85	0.4919	NULL
144	Miami OH	-6.87	0.4522	NULL
145	George Washington	-6.96	0.4837	NULL
146	Robert Morris	-7.01	0.5520	NULL
147	East Carolina	-7.01	0.5577	NULL
148	Indiana	-7.06	0.7059	NULL
149	Weber St.	-7.08	0.5063	NULL
150	South Dakota St.	-7.11	0.6326	NULL
151	North Texas	-7.26	0.4845	NULL
152	Texas Southern	-7.39	0.2193	NULL
153	Austin Peay	-7.40	0.5640	NULL
154	Oral Roberts	-7.45	0.6035	NULL
155	Iowa	-7.48	0.6809	NULL
156	Central Connecticut	-7.57	0.5236	NULL
157	Boston University	-7.58	0.4893	16
158	Georgia Tech	-7.65	0.6692	NULL
159	Tennessee Tech	-7.65	0.3776	NULL
160	NC Asheville	-7.69	0.5682	16
161	Stephen F. Austin	-7.79	0.3840	NULL
162	Texas Tech	-7.81	0.6132	NULL
163	Davidson	-7.89	0.5292	NULL
164	Arizona St.	-7.90	0.5845	NULL
165	Ball St.	-8.03	0.4930	NULL
166	Buffalo	-8.04	0.6310	NULL
167	Evansville	-8.09	0.4531	NULL
168	Columbia	-8.15	0.3810	NULL
169	Yale	-8.17	0.4578	NULL
170	Missouri Kansas City	-8.22	0.2544	NULL
171	Utah Valley	-8.25	0.2930	NULL
172	Liberty	-8.26	0.3502	NULL
173	Bethune Cookman	-8.31	0.2142	NULL
174	Detroit	-8.33	0.5821	NULL
175	San Jose St.	-8.44	0.4806	NULL
176	New Mexico St.	-8.54	0.5744	NULL
177	Pennsylvania	-8.56	0.4494	NULL
178	Sam Houston St.	-8.64	0.4729	NULL
179	Loyola Chicago	-8.65	0.5747	NULL
180	Pacific	-8.66	0.5643	NULL
181	Virginia Military Inst	-8.68	0.4168	NULL
182	Massachusetts	-8.69	0.4666	NULL
183	Southern Methodist	-8.74	0.5212	NULL
184	Western Carolina	-8.75	0.4362	NULL
185	South Florida	-9.06	0.5959	NULL
186	North Florida	-9.15	0.3626	NULL
187	Loyola MD	-9.15	0.4676	NULL
188	Wisconsin Green Bay	-9.21	0.5161	NULL
189	Ohio	-9.21	0.5363	NULL
190	Appalachian St.	-9.27	0.3753	NULL
191	Coppin St.	-9.34	0.2542	NULL
192	Texas San Antonio	-9.35	0.3603	16
193	Southeastern Louisiana	-9.42	0.2818	NULL
194	Cal Poly	-9.45	0.5070	NULL
195	Delaware	-9.51	0.4031	NULL
196	Morgan St.	-9.72	0.2998	NULL
197	Canisius	-9.74	0.4661	NULL
198	Arkansas St.	-9.78	0.4251	NULL
199	La Salle	-9.83	0.4895	NULL
200	Fresno St.	-9.92	0.4865	NULL
201	North Dakota St.	-9.93	0.5114	NULL
202	Lehigh	-9.98	0.4458	NULL
203	Oregon St.	-10.01	0.5205	NULL
204	Nicholls St.	-10.04	0.3412	NULL
205	North Dakota	-10.08	0.1773	NULL
206	Northwestern St.	-10.22	0.2760	NULL
207	Chattanooga	-10.29	0.2537	NULL
208	St. Louis	-10.36	0.6001	NULL
209	Maine	-10.36	0.4081	NULL
210	Rice	-10.55	0.5278	NULL
211	St. Francis NY	-10.72	0.3910	NULL
212	Western Kentucky	-10.75	0.3745	NULL
213	Jackson St.	-10.85	0.2309	NULL
214	Tulane	-10.85	0.4383	NULL
215	NC Wilmington	-11.07	0.3805	NULL
216	Louisiana Lafayette	-11.15	0.3392	NULL
217	Arkansas Little Rock	-11.17	0.3765	16
218	Charleston Southern	-11.21	0.3823	NULL
219	Wagner	-11.27	0.3562	NULL
220	North Carolina Central	-11.33	0.1573	NULL
221	Texas Christian	-11.34	0.4974	NULL
222	Nevada	-11.36	0.5258	NULL
223	Savannah St.	-11.37	0.2496	NULL
224	Tennessee St.	-11.39	0.3212	NULL
225	Drake	-11.43	0.3807	NULL
226	South Alabama	-11.45	0.2055	NULL
227	Presbyterian	-11.49	0.2968	NULL
228	Middle Tennessee	-11.53	0.4376	NULL
229	South Dakota	-11.55	0.2212	NULL
230	Eastern Kentucky	-11.66	0.3228	NULL
231	NJ Inst of Technology	-11.68	0.1578	NULL
232	Albany	-11.71	0.3204	NULL
233	Siena	-11.73	0.4007	NULL
234	Mercer	-11.75	0.3925	NULL
235	Southern Illinois	-11.83	0.3481	NULL
236	DePaul	-11.83	0.4115	NULL
237	Charlotte	-11.85	0.3922	NULL
238	Cornell	-11.89	0.4374	NULL
239	Wyoming	-11.93	0.3611	NULL
240	Winthrop	-11.94	0.3609	NULL
241	Portland St.	-11.95	0.2738	NULL
242	Alabama A&M	-11.99	0.1147	NULL
243	Elon	-12.02	0.3201	NULL
244	Denver	-12.05	0.3766	NULL
245	North Carolina A&T	-12.07	0.2054	NULL
246	Texas Arlington	-12.13	0.2862	NULL
247	Mississippi Valley St.	-12.20	0.1590	NULL
248	Houston	-12.20	0.3705	NULL
249	Saint Joseph’s	-12.23	0.4446	NULL
250	Cal St. Northridge	-12.23	0.3692	NULL
251	Northeastern	-12.24	0.4207	NULL
252	Texas St.	-12.28	0.2958	NULL
253	Brown	-12.38	0.3329	NULL
254	Auburn	-12.41	0.3318	NULL
255	Stony Brook	-12.43	0.3361	NULL
256	Georgia St.	-12.74	0.3556	NULL
257	Louisiana St.	-12.74	0.3329	NULL
258	Longwood	-12.85	0.1517	NULL
259	Montana St.	-12.89	0.3035	NULL
260	UC Riverside	-13.00	0.2666	NULL
261	Pepperdine	-13.02	0.3635	NULL
262	Alabama St.	-13.08	0.1792	16
263	Lafayette	-13.14	0.3673	NULL
264	UC Irvine	-13.17	0.3845	NULL
265	Bowling Green	-13.21	0.3097	NULL
266	Bradley	-13.22	0.4029	NULL
267	Louisiana Tech	-13.34	0.3139	NULL
268	Lamar	-13.37	0.3224	NULL
269	Illinois St.	-13.47	0.3082	NULL
270	Southern Utah	-13.62	0.2720	NULL
271	Wake Forest	-13.65	0.2712	NULL
272	Cal St. Bakersfield	-13.75	0.1726	NULL
273	New Hampshire	-13.81	0.2013	NULL
274	William & Mary	-13.99	0.3474	NULL
275	Idaho St.	-14.01	0.1952	NULL
276	Eastern Washington	-14.04	0.2766	NULL
277	Campbell	-14.07	0.2877	NULL
278	Sacred Heart	-14.11	0.2626	NULL
279	Fordham	-14.17	0.2145	NULL
280	High Point	-14.29	0.1633	NULL
281	Florida Gulf Coast	-14.33	0.2119	NULL
282	Loyola Marymount	-14.35	0.4050	NULL
283	Mount St. Mary’s	-14.36	0.2878	NULL
284	Cal St. Fullerton	-14.55	0.2958	NULL
285	Seattle	-14.58	0.2465	NULL
286	UC Davis	-14.67	0.3255	NULL
287	Gardner Webb	-14.76	0.2451	NULL
288	Army	-14.79	0.2419	NULL
289	Samford	-14.89	0.1588	NULL
290	Florida International	-14.92	0.2285	NULL
291	Hartford	-15.27	0.2025	NULL
292	Bryant	-15.34	0.1846	NULL
293	St. Francis PA	-15.34	0.2381	NULL
294	Navy	-15.38	0.2421	NULL
295	Texas A&M Corpus Chris	-15.38	0.1378	NULL
296	Norfolk St.	-15.52	0.1956	NULL
297	The Citadel	-15.60	0.2326	NULL
298	Troy	-15.69	0.2436	NULL
299	Northern Illinois	-15.72	0.2414	NULL
300	Tennessee Martin	-15.78	0.1941	NULL
301	Central Michigan	-15.80	0.2288	NULL
302	Illinois Chicago	-15.93	0.2802	NULL
303	Delaware St.	-15.94	0.1791	NULL
304	Eastern Illinois	-15.99	0.1721	NULL
305	Florida A&M	-16.19	0.0999	NULL
306	Holy Cross	-16.33	0.3615	NULL
307	San Diego	-16.35	0.1914	NULL
308	Monmouth	-16.38	0.2287	NULL
309	SIU Edwardsville	-16.73	0.0434	NULL
310	Sacramento St.	-16.77	0.1370	NULL
311	Grambling	-16.91	0.0871	NULL
312	NC Greensboro	-16.94	0.2223	NULL
313	Prairie View A&M	-16.96	0.0687	NULL
314	Niagara	-17.00	0.1827	NULL
315	Southeast Missouri St.	-17.21	0.1965	NULL
316	Eastern Michigan	-17.31	0.2081	NULL
317	Colgate	-17.42	0.1574	NULL
318	Stetson	-17.50	0.1853	NULL
319	Dartmouth	-17.54	0.1264	NULL
320	Kennesaw St.	-17.59	0.1416	NULL
321	Maryland Eastern Shore	-17.72	0.0775	NULL
322	South Carolina Upstate	-18.21	0.1280	NULL
323	Western Illinois	-18.23	0.0841	NULL
324	Binghamton	-18.38	0.1496	NULL
325	Arkansas Pine Bluff	-18.42	0.0702	NULL
326	Alcorn St.	-18.54	0.0486	NULL
327	South Carolina St.	-18.70	0.0995	NULL
328	Manhattan	-18.82	0.1671	NULL
329	Radford	-18.87	0.0814	NULL
330	Fairleigh Dickinson	-19.06	0.1301	NULL
331	Towson	-19.59	0.2446	NULL
332	Louisiana Monroe	-19.61	0.1078	NULL
333	MD Baltimore County	-19.69	0.0816	NULL
334	Marist	-19.69	0.1374	NULL
335	Central Arkansas	-19.81	0.0755	NULL
336	Chicago St.	-20.28	0.0386	NULL
337	Howard	-20.38	0.0569	NULL
338	Jacksonville St.	-20.59	0.1979	NULL
339	Texas Pan American	-20.74	0.0887	NULL
340	Georgia Southern	-21.41	0.0907	NULL
341	Toledo	-21.62	0.0850	NULL
342	Youngstown St.	-22.12	0.2877	NULL
343	Southern	-22.28	0.0253	NULL
344	Houston Baptist	-23.11	0.0743	NULL
345	Centenary	-23.63	0.0303	NULL

 

 

WAB 2/23: Morning edition

Sagarin hasn’t been updated yet, so no point in trying to run all three.

Last night Drexel completed a 34-point comeback against Delaware. This erased a 32-point comeback by Duke from the record books, so well done Drexel Dragons.

Indiana State is travelling to Ohio State tonight, while Rhode Island hosts Dayton.

Rank	School	WAB
1	Virginia	7.78
2	Villanova	7.02
3	Xavier	6.85
4	Michigan St.	6.26
5	Purdue	5.65
6	Duke	5.61
7	North Carolina	5.43
8	Auburn	4.87
9	Kansas	4.68
10	Tennessee	3.79
11	Texas Tech	3.63
12	Cincinnati	3.29
13	Gonzaga	3.20
14	Clemson	3.18
15	Ohio St.	3.14
16	Michigan	3.10
17	West Virginia	2.58
18	Rhode Island	2.51
19	Wichita St.	2.48
20	Arizona	2.38
21	Nevada	2.35
22	Kentucky	1.99
23	Virginia Tech	1.87
24	Middle Tennessee	1.78
25	Kansas St.	1.65
26	Saint Mary’s	1.61
27	TCU	1.30
28	Houston	1.30
29	Florida St.	1.19
30	Miami FL	1.16
31	North Carolina St.	0.94
32	Creighton	0.86
33	Arkansas	0.79
34	Loyola Chicago	0.76
35	Butler	0.74
36	Louisiana Lafayette	0.67
37	Nebraska	0.63
38	Oklahoma	0.59
39	Seton Hall	0.49
40	St. Bonaventure	0.45
41	Mississippi St.	0.39
42	Boise St.	0.39
43	Texas A&M	0.33
44	New Mexico St.	0.31
45	Arizona St.	0.22
46	Florida	-0.10
47	Missouri	-0.14
48	Louisville	-0.24
49	Providence	-0.30
50	Utah	-0.42
51	Texas	-0.44
52	South Dakota St.	-0.45
53	Alabama	-0.45
54	Baylor	-0.47
55	UCLA	-0.48
56	Maryland	-0.57
57	Marquette	-0.65
58	Vermont	-0.74
59	Syracuse	-0.81
60	Old Dominion	-0.82
61	USC	-0.83
62	Western Kentucky	-1.04
63	Murray St.	-1.09
64	East Tennessee St.	-1.14
65	LSU	-1.40
66	Oklahoma St.	-1.43
67	Stephen F. Austin	-1.54
68	Georgia	-1.56
69	Penn St.	-1.73
70	College of Charleston	-1.83
71	South Dakota	-1.86
72	BYU	-1.88
73	Washington	-1.90
74	Notre Dame	-1.91
75	Temple	-2.07
76	Montana	-2.12
77	UNC Greensboro	-2.13
78	Fresno St.	-2.27
79	Boston College	-2.27
80	Buffalo	-2.40
81	UCF	-2.50
82	UC Santa Barbara	-2.51
83	Indiana	-2.53
84	Belmont	-2.65
85	Georgetown	-2.76
86	Oregon	-2.83
87	Rider	-2.86
88	UNLV	-3.02
89	South Carolina	-3.06
90	Utah Valley	-3.12
91	Penn	-3.23
92	St. John’s	-3.26
93	Wright St.	-3.43
94	Iowa St.	-3.52
95	Wagner	-3.59
96	Lipscomb	-3.60
97	San Diego St.	-3.61
98	Bucknell	-3.61
99	Northeastern	-3.65
100	Memphis	-3.73
101	Wyoming	-3.77
102	Marshall	-3.83
103	Tulsa	-3.86
104	Ball St.	-3.87
105	Furman	-3.91
106	Northern Kentucky	-3.97
107	Davidson	-3.99
108	Idaho	-4.02
109	UC Davis	-4.12
110	Southern Illinois	-4.22
111	Toledo	-4.22
112	Weber St.	-4.28
113	Georgia St.	-4.29
114	SMU	-4.29
115	UNC Asheville	-4.40
116	Northwestern	-4.49
117	Bradley	-4.66
118	Stanford	-4.70
119	Wisconsin	-4.71
120	Colorado	-4.89
121	Nicholls St.	-4.94
122	Minnesota	-4.97
123	Wofford	-5.02
124	Northern Colorado	-5.11
125	Connecticut	-5.12
126	Albany	-5.13
127	Mississippi	-5.26
128	Vanderbilt	-5.32
129	Cal St. Fullerton	-5.33
130	Hofstra	-5.33
131	UMBC	-5.37
132	Seattle	-5.45
133	Portland St.	-5.55
134	San Diego	-5.56
135	VCU	-5.56
136	Grand Canyon	-5.61
137	Canisius	-5.64
138	Illinois St.	-5.65
139	Florida Gulf Coast	-5.69
140	William & Mary	-5.70
141	Southeastern Louisiana	-5.94
142	Winthrop	-5.96
143	San Francisco	-6.07
144	UAB	-6.13
145	Utah St.	-6.31
146	Hawaii	-6.43
147	Georgia Southern	-6.44
148	Harvard	-6.44
149	UTSA	-6.50
150	UT Arlington	-6.52
151	Austin Peay	-6.53
152	Tennessee Tech	-6.54
153	Jacksonville St.	-6.56
154	Wake Forest	-6.63
155	St. Francis PA	-6.68
156	Georgia Tech	-6.68
157	Radford	-6.71
158	Saint Louis	-6.74
159	New Mexico	-6.86
160	Drake	-6.86
161	DePaul	-6.86
162	Sam Houston St.	-6.89
163	Eastern Washington	-6.90
164	Fort Wayne	-6.90
165	Eastern Michigan	-6.90
166	Iona	-6.92
167	Illinois	-6.97
168	Missouri St.	-7.01
169	Iowa	-7.21
170	Northern Iowa	-7.25
171	Rutgers	-7.25
172	Oregon St.	-7.25
173	Louisiana Monroe	-7.31
174	Tulane	-7.35
175	Evansville	-7.42
176	Niagara	-7.43
177	Louisiana Tech	-7.43
178	Oakland	-7.48
179	Navy	-7.49
180	Hartford	-7.55
181	Savannah St.	-7.60
182	North Carolina A&T	-7.63
183	Western Michigan	-7.65
184	Illinois Chicago	-7.73
185	Mercer	-7.80
186	Towson	-7.88
187	UC Irvine	-7.90
188	Dayton	-7.98
189	Bowling Green	-8.11
190	Tennessee St.	-8.16
191	North Texas	-8.28
192	New Orleans	-8.31
193	George Washington	-8.33
194	Lamar	-8.35
195	Colgate	-8.37
196	Grambling St.	-8.41
197	Brown	-8.53
198	Pacific	-8.55
199	Central Michigan	-8.57
200	Washington St.	-8.58
201	Yale	-8.69
202	Miami OH	-8.80
203	Duquesne	-8.91
204	Cornell	-8.98
205	Lehigh	-8.99
206	George Mason	-9.04
207	Idaho St.	-9.06
208	Princeton	-9.08
209	Long Beach St.	-9.25
210	Mount St. Mary’s	-9.29
211	Denver	-9.33
212	Liberty	-9.37
213	Saint Joseph’s	-9.40
214	Southern Miss	-9.47
215	Elon	-9.48
216	Valparaiso	-9.56
217	UT Rio Grande Valley	-9.57
218	Southern	-9.59
219	Bethune Cookman	-9.72
220	Western Illinois	-9.77
221	South Alabama	-9.86
222	Kent St.	-9.91
223	Troy	-9.95
224	Fairfield	-9.96
225	North Dakota St.	-10.03
226	Abilene Christian	-10.05
227	Cal St. Bakersfield	-10.10
228	Indiana St.	-10.18
229	Hampton	-10.21
230	Colorado St.	-10.26
231	Western Carolina	-10.28
232	Air Force	-10.28
233	La Salle	-10.30
234	Central Arkansas	-10.40
235	Ohio	-10.41
236	Robert Morris	-10.43
237	Pittsburgh	-10.46
238	North Carolina Central	-10.54
239	Richmond	-10.59
240	High Point	-10.61
241	Southern Utah	-10.62
242	Montana St.	-10.67
243	Campbell	-10.67
244	Akron	-10.76
245	North Dakota	-10.80
246	Texas St.	-10.84
247	Milwaukee	-10.87
248	North Florida	-10.90
249	NJIT	-10.91
250	Manhattan	-10.94
251	East Carolina	-11.06
252	Massachusetts	-11.06
253	Charleston Southern	-11.07
254	Florida Atlantic	-11.13
255	Texas Southern	-11.20
256	Prairie View A&M	-11.26
257	Gardner Webb	-11.27
258	Southeast Missouri St.	-11.40
259	Northern Illinois	-11.45
260	Boston University	-11.61
261	Columbia	-11.67
262	Coastal Carolina	-11.69
263	Stony Brook	-11.87
264	Army	-11.87
265	Fordham	-12.02
266	McNeese St.	-12.06
267	Monmouth	-12.09
268	Loyola Marymount	-12.19
269	Texas A&M Corpus Chris	-12.19
270	Santa Clara	-12.19
271	Appalachian St.	-12.22
272	IUPUI	-12.22
273	FIU	-12.36
274	The Citadel	-12.49
275	Fairleigh Dickinson	-12.54
276	California	-12.56
277	Oral Roberts	-12.67
278	St. Francis NY	-12.67
279	UMass Lowell	-12.73
280	Saint Peter’s	-12.75
281	UTEP	-12.78
282	Eastern Illinois	-12.80
283	Jacksonville	-12.80
284	Nebraska Omaha	-12.81
285	Portland	-12.84
286	Drexel	-13.04
287	Central Connecticut	-13.08
288	Morgan St.	-13.13
289	Jackson St.	-13.16
290	Norfolk St.	-13.28
291	LIU Brooklyn	-13.31
292	Delaware	-13.35
293	UMKC	-13.35
294	Dartmouth	-13.43
295	Arkansas St.	-13.45
296	SIU Edwardsville	-13.64
297	Holy Cross	-13.67
298	Eastern Kentucky	-13.70
299	South Florida	-13.72
300	Kennesaw St.	-13.81
301	Quinnipiac	-13.83
302	Alcorn St.	-13.83
303	Samford	-13.92
304	Green Bay	-14.01
305	VMI	-14.03
306	UC Riverside	-14.26
307	South Carolina St.	-14.39
308	Cal Poly	-14.45
309	New Hampshire	-14.49
310	Binghamton	-14.53
311	Presbyterian	-14.54
312	Arkansas Pine Bluff	-14.54
313	UNC Wilmington	-14.62
314	Alabama St.	-14.78
315	Morehead St.	-15.01
316	James Madison	-15.09
317	Chattanooga	-15.56
318	Stetson	-15.58
319	Lafayette	-15.60
320	Incarnate Word	-15.89
321	Charlotte	-16.00
322	Sacramento St.	-16.10
323	Sacred Heart	-16.15
324	Rice	-16.21
325	Loyola MD	-16.25
326	Youngstown St.	-16.31
327	Tennessee Martin	-16.38
328	Houston Baptist	-16.42
329	Detroit	-16.46
330	San Jose St.	-16.48
331	Siena	-16.63
332	Cal St. Northridge	-16.65
333	Cleveland St.	-16.72
334	Little Rock	-17.08
335	Howard	-17.10
336	Florida A&M	-17.32
337	Northern Arizona	-17.39
338	American	-17.54
339	Maryland Eastern Shore	-17.56
340	Pepperdine	-17.63
341	Northwestern St.	-17.64
342	Marist	-17.88
343	Coppin St.	-18.45
344	Maine	-18.48
345	USC Upstate	-19.31
346	Chicago St.	-19.35
347	Longwood	-19.70
348	Mississippi Valley St.	-20.00
349	Alabama A&M	-20.59
350	Delaware St.	-21.33
351	Bryant	-22.10

WAB 2/22: Nebraska is on the Bubble?

No matter how many times I see it, it still amazes me. We live in a world where strength of schedule rules and strength of record gets a footnote. Good luck Cornhuskers (nee Bugeaters).

Rank WAB	School	WAB KP	WAB Sag	WAB BPI	WAB Avg	Pythag	Rank Pythag
1	Virginia	7.78	8.38	8.41	8.19	0.9689	1
2	Villanova	7	7.38	7.41	7.26	0.968	2
3	Xavier	6.84	7.38	7.27	7.16	0.9184	12
4	Michigan St.	6.3	7.18	6.91	6.80	0.9581	5
5	Duke	5.62	5.97	6.01	5.87	0.9625	3
6	North Carolina	5.43	5.78	5.94	5.72	0.9376	7
7	Purdue	5.23	5.84	5.78	5.62	0.9594	4
8	Kansas	4.72	5.56	5.03	5.10	0.9367	8
9	Auburn	4.88	4.95	4.72	4.85	0.9142	13
10	Texas Tech	3.67	4.62	4.15	4.15	0.9301	10
11	Tennessee	3.82	4.39	4.16	4.12	0.9027	16
12	Michigan	3.15	3.86	3.75	3.59	0.8987	18
13	Ohio St.	3.15	3.75	3.8	3.57	0.9053	15
14	Clemson	3.18	3.7	3.7	3.53	0.8987	17
15	Cincinnati	3.26	3.67	3.52	3.48	0.9568	6
16	West Virginia	2.6	3.46	2.95	3.00	0.9305	9
17	Gonzaga	2.9	3.05	2.84	2.93	0.9286	11
18	Rhode Island	2.51	2.85	2.86	2.74	0.8688	34
19	Wichita St.	2.51	2.95	2.69	2.72	0.9137	14
20	Houston	2.03	2.3	2.52	2.28	0.8873	22
21	Kentucky	1.98	2.3	2.29	2.19	0.8853	23
22	Nevada	2.35	2.16	2.02	2.18	0.8798	25
23	Arizona	2.05	2.6	1.76	2.14	0.8909	20
24	Kansas St.	1.66	2.56	2.07	2.10	0.8392	45
25	Virginia Tech	1.89	2.19	2.09	2.06	0.8733	30
26	TCU	1.33	2.23	2.07	1.88	0.8909	21
27	Middle Tennessee	1.8	1.61	1.92	1.78	0.8237	50
28	Florida St.	1.2	1.71	1.56	1.49	0.8786	26
29	Saint Mary’s	1.6	1.53	1.14	1.42	0.8851	24
30	Miami FL	1.19	1.62	1.44	1.42	0.8673	36
31	North Carolina St.	0.94	1.25	1.43	1.21	0.8239	49
32	Oklahoma	0.62	1.68	1.31	1.20	0.853	41
33	Creighton	0.88	1.4	1.2	1.16	0.877	27
34	Butler	0.75	1.23	1.45	1.14	0.8912	19
35	Nebraska	0.63	1.57	1.19	1.13	0.7959	58
36	Arkansas	0.84	1.16	0.82	0.94	0.8523	42
37	Arizona St.	0.66	1.37	0.48	0.84	0.8558	40
38	Seton Hall	0.48	1.01	1.01	0.83	0.865	38
39	St. Bonaventure	0.46	0.83	0.93	0.74	0.7919	63
40	Texas A&M	0.36	0.8	0.58	0.58	0.8671	37
41	Loyola Chicago	0.74	0.5	0.23	0.49	0.8118	55
42	Louisiana Lafayette	0.44	0.37	0.62	0.48	0.8001	57
43	Mississippi St.	0.4	0.63	0.32	0.45	0.8158	54
44	Boise St.	0.39	0.46	0.24	0.36	0.8195	52
45	New Mexico St.	0.25	0.26	0.41	0.31	0.7951	60
46	Baylor	-0.46	0.61	0.39	0.18	0.8699	33
47	Texas	-0.41	0.5	0.25	0.11	0.8601	39
48	UCLA	-0.08	0.55	-0.2	0.09	0.8177	53
49	Providence	-0.25	0.14	0.29	0.06	0.7756	69
50	Louisville	-0.24	0.29	0.12	0.06	0.8706	32
51	Florida	-0.09	0.1	-0.08	-0.02	0.8737	29
52	Maryland	-0.54	0.08	0.2	-0.09	0.8675	35
53	Missouri	-0.13	0.08	-0.28	-0.11	0.848	43
54	Marquette	-0.65	-0.03	0.12	-0.19	0.8295	48
55	Alabama	-0.47	-0.22	-0.34	-0.34	0.8415	44
56	Syracuse	-0.79	-0.19	-0.38	-0.45	0.8348	46
57	Vermont	-0.76	-0.62	-0.19	-0.52	0.776	68
58	Utah	-0.69	-0.17	-0.94	-0.60	0.7952	59
59	USC	-0.78	-0.13	-1.09	-0.67	0.8334	47
60	South Dakota St.	-0.72	-0.65	-0.78	-0.72	0.7151	87
61	Oklahoma St.	-1.4	-0.46	-0.76	-0.87	0.7836	65
62	East Tennessee St.	-1.13	-1.25	-0.61	-1.00	0.7227	86
63	Western Kentucky	-1.05	-1.12	-0.94	-1.04	0.7689	72
64	Old Dominion	-1.12	-1.18	-1.18	-1.16	0.8041	56
65	LSU	-1.37	-1	-1.27	-1.21	0.7822	66
66	Washington	-1.33	-0.86	-1.53	-1.24	0.6777	101
67	Murray St.	-1.21	-1.49	-1.25	-1.32	0.7561	77
68	Penn St.	-1.69	-1.05	-1.31	-1.35	0.8748	28
69	South Dakota	-1.36	-1.44	-1.53	-1.44	0.7684	73
70	Georgia	-1.54	-1.35	-1.47	-1.45	0.7627	76
71	Stephen F. Austin	-1.51	-1.72	-1.55	-1.59	0.6119	116
72	Notre Dame	-1.9	-1.42	-1.47	-1.60	0.8715	31
73	College of Charleston	-1.87	-1.67	-1.58	-1.71	0.6161	114
74	Temple	-2.03	-1.84	-1.52	-1.80	0.7303	82
75	Indiana	-2.52	-1.59	-1.81	-1.97	0.7749	70
76	UNC Greensboro	-2.11	-2.28	-1.54	-1.98	0.698	94
77	Boston College	-2.26	-1.86	-1.87	-2.00	0.7261	85
78	Belmont	-1.95	-2.12	-1.96	-2.01	0.7305	81
79	Rider	-2.11	-2.07	-1.98	-2.05	0.5912	125
80	BYU	-2.02	-2.09	-2.15	-2.09	0.7671	74
81	UC Santa Barbara	-1.86	-2	-2.42	-2.09	0.5891	127
82	UCF	-2.49	-2.15	-2.19	-2.28	0.7049	90
83	Fresno St.	-2.24	-2.19	-2.45	-2.29	0.7787	67
84	Buffalo	-2.41	-2.35	-2.45	-2.40	0.7046	91
85	Georgetown	-2.77	-2.3	-2.31	-2.46	0.6983	93
86	Montana	-2.14	-2.65	-2.73	-2.51	0.6687	102
87	St. John’s	-3.25	-2.72	-2.71	-2.89	0.7668	75
88	Penn	-3.27	-2.88	-2.97	-3.04	0.5979	122
89	Oregon	-3.13	-2.66	-3.38	-3.06	0.7874	64
90	South Carolina	-3.04	-3.04	-3.16	-3.08	0.7392	79
91	Iowa St.	-3.51	-2.8	-3.01	-3.11	0.7122	88
92	UNLV	-3	-3.02	-3.31	-3.11	0.7032	92
93	Marshall	-3.14	-3.28	-3.14	-3.19	0.5722	141
94	Northwestern	-3.7	-3	-3.15	-3.28	0.7705	71
95	Bucknell	-3.63	-3.21	-3.06	-3.30	0.6792	100
96	Wright St.	-3.45	-3.6	-3.3	-3.45	0.5666	145
97	Utah Valley	-3.21	-3.56	-3.61	-3.46	0.6669	103
98	Idaho	-3.16	-3.72	-3.6	-3.49	0.6049	118
99	Lipscomb	-3.59	-3.7	-3.42	-3.57	0.4704	176
100	Northeastern	-3.8	-3.6	-3.47	-3.62	0.6406	108
101	Tulsa	-3.87	-3.37	-3.65	-3.63	0.6293	111
102	Wagner	-3.65	-3.7	-3.59	-3.65	0.5078	165
103	Weber St.	-3.43	-3.91	-3.65	-3.66	0.5872	128
104	San Diego St.	-3.57	-3.69	-3.91	-3.72	0.7931	62
105	Ball St.	-3.89	-3.45	-3.9	-3.75	0.5439	149
106	Davidson	-3.96	-3.66	-3.81	-3.81	0.8209	51
107	Furman	-3.91	-4.09	-3.52	-3.84	0.6951	96
108	Wyoming	-3.75	-3.97	-3.94	-3.89	0.5851	132
109	Memphis	-4.14	-3.87	-3.76	-3.92	0.5419	152
110	Northern Kentucky	-3.99	-4.03	-3.75	-3.92	0.7265	84
111	Toledo	-4.21	-3.98	-4.16	-4.12	0.6017	119
112	SMU	-4.3	-4.09	-4.06	-4.15	0.795	61
113	Georgia St.	-4.42	-4.46	-4.23	-4.37	0.6318	110
114	UNC Asheville	-4.5	-4.87	-3.87	-4.41	0.4546	183
115	Southern Illinois	-4.2	-4.66	-4.52	-4.46	0.5904	126
116	UC Davis	-4.11	-4.62	-4.74	-4.49	0.56	147
117	Minnesota	-4.94	-4.24	-4.4	-4.53	0.6948	97
118	Connecticut	-5.06	-4.51	-4.44	-4.67	0.5185	163
119	Stanford	-4.82	-4.29	-5	-4.70	0.6901	98
120	Colorado	-4.86	-4.28	-4.99	-4.71	0.6101	117
121	Wisconsin	-5.14	-4.57	-4.54	-4.75	0.7527	78
122	Bradley	-4.63	-5.09	-5.06	-4.93	0.5855	130
123	Wofford	-5.04	-5.14	-4.7	-4.96	0.4882	170
124	Seattle	-4.77	-5.08	-5.07	-4.97	0.4213	194
125	Albany	-5.17	-5.07	-4.69	-4.98	0.5845	133
126	Nicholls St.	-4.9	-5.26	-4.88	-5.01	0.4687	178
127	Winthrop	-5.19	-5.39	-4.78	-5.12	0.5859	129
128	UMBC	-5.38	-5.26	-4.73	-5.12	0.4128	199
129	San Diego	-4.99	-5.11	-5.32	-5.14	0.5717	142
130	Vanderbilt	-5.29	-5.26	-5.17	-5.24	0.7375	80
131	VCU	-5.54	-5.2	-5.24	-5.33	0.5933	123
132	Mississippi	-5.27	-5.39	-5.38	-5.35	0.6954	95
133	Hofstra	-5.49	-5.38	-5.18	-5.35	0.5316	157
134	Cal St. Fullerton	-5.35	-5.56	-5.73	-5.55	0.4477	184
135	Northern Colorado	-5.1	-5.79	-5.8	-5.56	0.5668	144
136	Canisius	-5.6	-5.58	-5.6	-5.59	0.5932	124
137	William & Mary	-5.74	-5.66	-5.48	-5.63	0.4948	168
138	Georgia Southern	-5.77	-5.88	-5.62	-5.76	0.5852	131
139	Grand Canyon	-5.64	-5.82	-5.85	-5.77	0.6508	105
140	Florida Gulf Coast	-5.78	-5.83	-5.72	-5.78	0.6196	113
141	Portland St.	-5.67	-5.99	-6.15	-5.94	0.5463	148
142	Southeastern Louisiana	-5.92	-6.09	-5.81	-5.94	0.3618	223
143	Illinois St.	-5.66	-6.07	-6.1	-5.94	0.5261	160
144	Harvard	-6.44	-6.08	-6.02	-6.18	0.5281	158
145	UAB	-6.12	-6.34	-6.17	-6.21	0.6397	109
146	Illinois	-6.57	-6.13	-6.29	-6.33	0.6819	99
147	Wake Forest	-6.57	-6.43	-6.16	-6.39	0.7279	83
148	San Francisco	-6.3	-6.42	-6.46	-6.39	0.5432	150
149	Utah St.	-6.28	-6.57	-6.34	-6.40	0.5761	139
150	Georgia Tech	-6.65	-6.3	-6.26	-6.40	0.6249	112
151	DePaul	-6.86	-6.14	-6.33	-6.44	0.6566	104
152	Oakland	-6.54	-6.42	-6.4	-6.45	0.5389	154
153	Saint Louis	-6.69	-6.35	-6.38	-6.47	0.5803	134
154	Oregon St.	-6.65	-6.06	-6.89	-6.53	0.6461	107
155	UT Arlington	-6.62	-6.74	-6.36	-6.57	0.5792	136
156	Hawaii	-6.48	-6.65	-6.64	-6.59	0.3679	218
157	Tennessee Tech	-6.61	-6.78	-6.41	-6.60	0.3654	221
158	UTSA	-6.54	-6.78	-6.53	-6.62	0.4409	186
159	Austin Peay	-6.63	-6.79	-6.56	-6.66	0.4056	201
160	Louisiana Tech	-6.53	-6.92	-6.64	-6.70	0.5746	140
161	St. Francis PA	-6.79	-6.86	-6.74	-6.80	0.4014	206
162	Radford	-6.9	-7.07	-6.5	-6.82	0.4295	190
163	Iona	-6.94	-6.86	-6.69	-6.83	0.5984	121
164	Rutgers	-7.23	-6.68	-6.63	-6.85	0.5771	138
165	Eastern Michigan	-6.87	-6.76	-6.96	-6.86	0.4576	182
166	Jacksonville St.	-6.73	-7.01	-6.86	-6.87	0.5266	159
167	Fort Wayne	-6.85	-7.03	-6.74	-6.87	0.5332	155
168	Iowa	-7.21	-6.72	-6.7	-6.88	0.706	89
169	New Mexico	-6.8	-6.83	-7.05	-6.89	0.6138	115
170	Sam Houston St.	-6.89	-7.09	-6.91	-6.96	0.3831	212
171	Towson	-7.22	-7.06	-6.96	-7.08	0.5798	135
172	Drake	-6.85	-7.09	-7.37	-7.10	0.5074	166
173	Tulane	-7.34	-7.04	-7.03	-7.14	0.5166	164
174	Navy	-7.52	-7.25	-6.99	-7.25	0.4023	204
175	Niagara	-7.46	-7.19	-7.16	-7.27	0.4029	203
176	Tennessee St.	-7.33	-7.44	-7.16	-7.31	0.4061	200
177	Louisiana Monroe	-7.48	-7.48	-7.05	-7.34	0.348	227
178	Missouri St.	-7	-7.59	-7.54	-7.38	0.6476	106
179	Northern Iowa	-7.25	-7.48	-7.44	-7.39	0.578	137
180	Hartford	-7.53	-7.66	-7.23	-7.47	0.3428	231
181	Savannah St.	-7.59	-7.71	-7.29	-7.53	0.1738	325
182	North Texas	-7.43	-7.59	-7.63	-7.55	0.4339	188
183	Eastern Washington	-7.23	-7.84	-7.92	-7.66	0.5218	161
184	Evansville	-7.4	-7.82	-7.78	-7.67	0.5049	167
185	North Carolina A&T	-7.64	-7.74	-7.65	-7.68	0.2107	301
186	Western Michigan	-7.64	-7.56	-7.84	-7.68	0.472	175
187	Illinois Chicago	-7.74	-7.73	-7.65	-7.71	0.4193	196
188	Mercer	-7.81	-8.03	-7.48	-7.77	0.5993	120
189	Pacific	-7.64	-7.75	-7.93	-7.77	0.4879	171
190	Dayton	-7.99	-7.82	-7.67	-7.83	0.5708	143
191	George Washington	-8.3	-7.74	-7.63	-7.89	0.4415	185
192	Bowling Green	-8.11	-8.15	-8.13	-8.13	0.3452	229
193	Colgate	-8.39	-8.12	-7.97	-8.16	0.4205	195
194	New Orleans	-8.28	-8.35	-8.13	-8.25	0.2954	250
195	Brown	-8.52	-8.15	-8.11	-8.26	0.2981	248
196	UC Irvine	-7.91	-8.36	-8.55	-8.27	0.543	151
197	Grambling St.	-8.39	-8.38	-8.38	-8.38	0.215	298
198	Yale	-8.73	-8.22	-8.22	-8.39	0.4697	177
199	Lamar	-8.34	-8.45	-8.47	-8.42	0.4219	192
200	Liberty	-8.47	-8.8	-8.15	-8.47	0.483	172
201	Central Michigan	-8.58	-8.47	-8.77	-8.61	0.4611	181
202	Washington St.	-8.68	-8.23	-8.98	-8.63	0.4266	191
203	Long Beach St.	-8.47	-8.49	-8.94	-8.63	0.3799	215
204	UT Rio Grande Valley	-8.62	-8.71	-8.75	-8.69	0.3194	240
205	George Mason	-9	-8.67	-8.6	-8.76	0.3972	209
206	Duquesne	-8.91	-8.54	-8.85	-8.77	0.4612	180
207	Lehigh	-9.02	-8.73	-8.56	-8.77	0.3663	219
208	Cornell	-9	-8.84	-8.62	-8.82	0.2738	265
209	Elon	-8.88	-8.91	-8.68	-8.82	0.377	217
210	Southern Miss	-8.68	-9.12	-8.69	-8.83	0.3399	233
211	South Alabama	-8.91	-8.99	-8.71	-8.87	0.3925	211
212	Miami OH	-8.82	-8.82	-8.99	-8.88	0.4219	193
213	Princeton	-9.1	-8.8	-8.79	-8.90	0.4639	179
214	Saint Joseph’s	-9.4	-8.94	-8.97	-9.10	0.5655	146
215	Abilene Christian	-9.05	-9.24	-9.11	-9.13	0.2936	252
216	Troy	-9.21	-9.34	-9.02	-9.19	0.4812	173
217	North Dakota St.	-9.12	-9.38	-9.34	-9.28	0.4932	169
218	Mount St. Mary’s	-9.33	-9.28	-9.28	-9.30	0.2968	249
219	Cal St. Bakersfield	-9.2	-9.48	-9.31	-9.33	0.3373	234
220	Idaho St.	-9.19	-9.59	-9.45	-9.41	0.275	264
221	Southern	-9.59	-9.38	-9.49	-9.49	0.1748	324
222	Denver	-9.36	-9.64	-9.64	-9.55	0.3404	232
223	Robert Morris	-9.58	-9.78	-9.57	-9.64	0.331	237
224	Campbell	-9.78	-10	-9.41	-9.73	0.3815	214
225	Valparaiso	-9.53	-9.79	-9.96	-9.76	0.5417	153
226	Bethune Cookman	-9.68	-9.67	-9.93	-9.76	0.1999	307
227	La Salle	-10.27	-9.78	-9.59	-9.88	0.5318	156
228	North Florida	-9.96	-9.85	-9.83	-9.88	0.2252	289
229	Fairfield	-9.93	-10.03	-9.74	-9.90	0.3654	220
230	Kent St.	-9.92	-9.92	-9.92	-9.92	0.3998	208
231	Western Illinois	-9.86	-10.02	-9.92	-9.93	0.2436	279
232	Southern Utah	-9.71	-10.12	-10.16	-10.00	0.2195	292
233	Texas St.	-9.99	-10.2	-9.86	-10.02	0.4016	205
234	Pittsburgh	-10.44	-9.92	-9.92	-10.09	0.3558	226
235	Hampton	-10.16	-10.26	-10.13	-10.18	0.2907	257
236	Western Carolina	-10.32	-10.47	-9.76	-10.18	0.2082	303
237	Florida Atlantic	-10.16	-10.31	-10.22	-10.23	0.2942	251
238	Colorado St.	-10.2	-10.19	-10.43	-10.27	0.3583	225
239	Richmond	-10.58	-10.37	-10.04	-10.33	0.4356	187
240	Air Force	-10.25	-10.33	-10.49	-10.36	0.273	266
241	Central Arkansas	-10.41	-10.35	-10.54	-10.43	0.3774	216
242	Ohio	-10.43	-10.4	-10.52	-10.45	0.4164	197
243	Indiana St.	-10.18	-10.68	-10.6	-10.49	0.5195	162
244	North Carolina Central	-10.54	-10.57	-10.69	-10.60	0.2253	288
245	High Point	-10.65	-10.88	-10.36	-10.63	0.3958	210
246	Southeast Missouri St.	-10.51	-10.86	-10.55	-10.64	0.2898	258
247	Akron	-10.76	-10.53	-10.71	-10.67	0.2913	253
248	Massachusetts	-11.08	-10.56	-10.8	-10.81	0.4321	189
249	East Carolina	-11.04	-10.7	-10.74	-10.83	0.2326	283
250	NJIT	-10.96	-10.84	-10.76	-10.85	0.2997	247
251	Milwaukee	-10.98	-10.92	-10.69	-10.86	0.3476	228
252	Manhattan	-10.96	-10.78	-10.88	-10.87	0.4009	207
253	Montana St.	-10.64	-11.26	-11.1	-11.00	0.2866	259
254	Charleston Southern	-11.13	-11.3	-10.68	-11.04	0.2802	261
255	Texas Southern	-11.18	-11.02	-11.11	-11.10	0.2753	263
256	Appalachian St.	-11.3	-11.21	-10.93	-11.15	0.3819	213
257	North Dakota	-10.8	-11.45	-11.2	-11.15	0.2619	273
258	Gardner Webb	-11.31	-11.52	-10.8	-11.21	0.2537	276
259	Prairie View A&M	-11.21	-11.26	-11.45	-11.31	0.2508	277
260	Santa Clara	-11.21	-11.36	-11.39	-11.32	0.2832	260
261	Northern Illinois	-11.47	-11.18	-11.4	-11.35	0.3355	235
262	Boston University	-11.62	-11.33	-11.14	-11.36	0.3184	241
263	California	-11.6	-10.99	-11.68	-11.42	0.3434	230
264	Columbia	-11.69	-11.39	-11.21	-11.43	0.4142	198
265	Fairleigh Dickinson	-11.62	-11.64	-11.41	-11.56	0.2591	275
266	Fordham	-12.01	-11.53	-11.46	-11.67	0.2716	267
267	Stony Brook	-11.88	-11.78	-11.4	-11.69	0.3614	224
268	Coastal Carolina	-11.76	-11.87	-11.44	-11.69	0.4041	202
269	Army	-11.9	-11.71	-11.51	-11.71	0.3204	239
270	St. Francis NY	-11.8	-11.82	-11.62	-11.75	0.2057	304
271	Nebraska Omaha	-11.83	-11.96	-11.9	-11.90	0.291	255
272	Monmouth	-12.21	-11.95	-11.85	-12.00	0.4771	174
273	Portland	-12.04	-12.11	-12.15	-12.10	0.2758	262
274	McNeese St.	-12.01	-12.29	-12.02	-12.11	0.1998	308
275	Eastern Illinois	-12.04	-12.34	-12.04	-12.14	0.2909	256
276	IUPUI	-12.23	-12.23	-12.06	-12.17	0.2281	285
277	Central Connecticut	-12.19	-12.31	-12.2	-12.23	0.1916	312
278	Texas A&M Corpus Chris	-12.24	-12.45	-12.37	-12.35	0.191	313
279	Delaware	-12.48	-12.39	-12.2	-12.36	0.3027	245
280	Loyola Marymount	-12.29	-12.34	-12.47	-12.37	0.3091	243
281	The Citadel	-12.49	-12.76	-11.9	-12.38	0.1996	309
282	FIU	-12.44	-12.69	-12.58	-12.57	0.306	244
283	Saint Peter’s	-12.72	-12.56	-12.48	-12.59	0.3346	236
284	UMass Lowell	-12.76	-12.83	-12.44	-12.68	0.2142	299
285	SIU Edwardsville	-12.68	-12.93	-12.62	-12.74	0.1829	319
286	Oral Roberts	-12.78	-12.79	-12.77	-12.78	0.2913	254
287	Jacksonville	-12.85	-12.86	-12.83	-12.85	0.1497	328
288	Drexel	-13.04	-12.98	-12.7	-12.91	0.2997	246
289	Kennesaw St.	-13.05	-13.03	-12.88	-12.99	0.2155	297
290	UTEP	-12.81	-13.23	-13.05	-13.03	0.27	269
291	Morgan St.	-13.15	-13.03	-13.02	-13.07	0.176	322
292	Jackson St.	-13.14	-13.17	-12.99	-13.10	0.1168	335
293	Dartmouth	-13.43	-13.24	-13.03	-13.23	0.27	268
294	Norfolk St.	-13.29	-13.55	-13.31	-13.38	0.1844	318
295	LIU Brooklyn	-13.35	-13.54	-13.3	-13.40	0.2674	270
296	Arkansas St.	-13.49	-13.53	-13.25	-13.42	0.2609	274
297	Holy Cross	-13.69	-13.41	-13.17	-13.42	0.2258	287
298	UMKC	-13.47	-13.74	-13.36	-13.52	0.2029	306
299	South Florida	-13.66	-13.46	-13.47	-13.53	0.1891	314
300	Presbyterian	-13.57	-13.95	-13.11	-13.54	0.1445	330
301	Alcorn St.	-13.82	-13.59	-13.69	-13.70	0.1109	338
302	Quinnipiac	-13.79	-13.82	-13.57	-13.73	0.2334	282
303	UNC Wilmington	-13.86	-13.93	-13.55	-13.78	0.3288	238
304	Samford	-13.96	-14.22	-13.5	-13.89	0.2436	278
305	VMI	-14.04	-14.25	-13.4	-13.90	0.1243	331
306	Eastern Kentucky	-13.77	-14.18	-13.75	-13.90	0.2271	286
307	James Madison	-14.22	-14.24	-13.98	-14.15	0.3646	222
308	Green Bay	-14.29	-14.31	-14.22	-14.27	0.2623	272
309	South Carolina St.	-14.4	-14.37	-14.18	-14.32	0.0757	344
310	New Hampshire	-14.5	-14.52	-14.11	-14.38	0.31	242
311	Binghamton	-14.54	-14.66	-14.26	-14.49	0.2402	280
312	Arkansas Pine Bluff	-14.47	-14.56	-14.57	-14.53	0.118	333
313	UC Riverside	-14.29	-14.68	-14.81	-14.59	0.2285	284
314	Cal Poly	-14.51	-14.62	-14.99	-14.71	0.1828	320
315	Stetson	-14.7	-14.78	-14.69	-14.72	0.1874	317
316	Alabama St.	-14.78	-14.78	-14.61	-14.72	0.0953	339
317	Morehead St.	-15.03	-15.32	-14.8	-15.05	0.2244	291
318	Lafayette	-15.62	-15.33	-15.08	-15.34	0.2639	271
319	Detroit	-15.52	-15.55	-15.26	-15.44	0.2175	295
320	Sacramento St.	-15.13	-15.78	-15.66	-15.52	0.2192	293
321	Chattanooga	-15.61	-15.87	-15.2	-15.56	0.2165	296
322	Tennessee Martin	-15.51	-15.74	-15.48	-15.58	0.218	294
323	Charlotte	-15.54	-15.7	-15.52	-15.59	0.2052	305
324	Incarnate Word	-15.84	-16.05	-15.81	-15.90	0.089	341
325	Loyola MD	-16.28	-15.94	-15.82	-16.01	0.1758	323
326	Cal St. Northridge	-15.74	-16.22	-16.49	-16.15	0.1481	329
327	Sacred Heart	-16.17	-16.23	-16.08	-16.16	0.1965	311
328	Little Rock	-16.18	-16.48	-16.1	-16.25	0.2088	302
329	Youngstown St.	-16.32	-16.51	-16.21	-16.35	0.1763	321
330	Houston Baptist	-16.37	-16.44	-16.23	-16.35	0.1513	327
331	Rice	-16.33	-16.64	-16.44	-16.47	0.1976	310
332	Siena	-16.68	-16.55	-16.35	-16.53	0.2399	281
333	Cleveland St.	-16.73	-16.62	-16.48	-16.61	0.1887	315
334	San Jose St.	-16.46	-16.68	-16.76	-16.63	0.2109	300
335	Howard	-17.1	-17.04	-17.01	-17.05	0.1183	332
336	Florida A&M	-17.31	-17.35	-17.23	-17.30	0.0817	342
337	American	-17.57	-17.4	-17.05	-17.34	0.1546	326
338	Pepperdine	-17.26	-17.45	-17.52	-17.41	0.225	290
339	Maryland Eastern Shore	-17.54	-17.47	-17.22	-17.41	0.0443	349
340	Northwestern St.	-17.63	-17.61	-17.63	-17.62	0.0658	346
341	Northern Arizona	-17.41	-17.89	-17.87	-17.72	0.1153	337
342	Marist	-17.87	-17.84	-17.74	-17.82	0.1877	316
343	USC Upstate	-18.38	-18.26	-18.15	-18.26	0.116	336
344	Coppin St.	-18.47	-18.2	-18.35	-18.34	0.067	345
345	Maine	-18.48	-18.44	-18.14	-18.35	0.1173	334
346	Longwood	-18.86	-19.1	-18.41	-18.79	0.0769	343
347	Chicago St.	-18.92	-18.84	-18.74	-18.83	0.0503	348
348	Mississippi Valley St.	-20.01	-20	-20.01	-20.01	0.0572	347
349	Alabama A&M	-20.61	-20.57	-20.7	-20.63	0.0373	351
350	Bryant	-21.16	-21.21	-20.99	-21.12	0.094	340
351	Delaware St.	-21.34	-21.45	-21.26	-21.35	0.0426	350

WAB 2/21: The Big 10 is going to get hosed

First off, let me thank C. Ryan Campbell for the images (@seeryanc on Twitter). On the left we have the bubble win expectations by quadrant. As many others have noted, RPI is a very bad metric to use for judging the difficulty of a schedule. We see this pretty clear where the difficulty of the quadrants between the Big 10 and Pac 12 is a full quadrant off. The Big 10 quadrant 2 games are slightly tougher than the Pac 12 quadrant 1 games. Similarly, the Big 10 quadrant 3 games are a hair tougher than the Pac 12 quadrant 2 games. Of course, none of that will matter on Selection Sunday, which is why I expect the Big 10 (and Big 12 to a lesser degree) to get hosed, while the Pac 12 should do rather well.

Bart Torvik was kind enough to run the numbers for a bubble team by quadrant:

This should be less incorrect (forgot to change quadrant definitions for bubble team at home for first try). pic.twitter.com/O5JEdHFWgH

— Bart T🏀rvik (@totally_t_bomb) February 21, 2018

That’s for a bubble team facing each team in a conference home and away round robin style. My word, there are a lot of opportunities for quadrant 1 wins in the SEC. As for the Big 10 and Pac 12, there are 16 quadrant 1 or 2 games. Expected wins:

Big 10: 6.0 wins, 10.0 losses

Pac 12: 8.7 wins, 7.3 losses

Life is good out west.

There are a ton of big games tonight, but none bigger than North Carolina at Syracuse. Between North Carolina tonight, and Duke on Saturday, Syracuse has two chances to put themselves on the positive side of the WAB ledger. 1-1 would be a great result. More likely, they’ll go 0-2 and have to win out vs. Boston College and Clemson to get back on the bubble. We’ll see.

Rank WAB	School	WAB KP	WAB Sag	WAB BPI	WAB Avg	Pythag	Rank Pythag
1	Virginia	7.65	8.21	8.25	8.04	0.9701	1
2	Villanova	6.9	7.25	7.26	7.14	0.9672	2
3	Michigan St.	6.3	7.17	6.88	6.78	0.9581	5
4	Xavier	6.41	6.92	6.82	6.72	0.9163	13
5	Purdue	5.22	5.83	5.75	5.60	0.9595	4
6	Duke	5.31	5.56	5.6	5.49	0.9597	3
7	Kansas	4.73	5.55	5.01	5.10	0.9371	7
8	North Carolina	4.77	5.11	5.24	5.04	0.9371	8
9	Texas Tech	4.11	5.01	4.61	4.58	0.9355	9
10	Auburn	4.54	4.62	4.39	4.52	0.9102	14
11	Clemson	3.5	3.99	3.93	3.81	0.9003	17
12	Tennessee	3.42	3.95	3.75	3.71	0.9022	16
13	Ohio St.	3.16	3.75	3.78	3.56	0.9054	15
14	Cincinnati	3.3	3.7	3.53	3.51	0.9569	6
15	West Virginia	2.6	3.45	2.93	2.99	0.9306	10
16	Gonzaga	2.91	3.06	2.85	2.94	0.9292	11
17	Michigan	2.47	3.18	3.01	2.89	0.8914	18
18	Rhode Island	2.54	2.87	2.88	2.76	0.87	33
19	Wichita St.	2.39	2.83	2.57	2.60	0.9185	12
20	Houston	2.08	2.32	2.53	2.31	0.8873	22
21	Kentucky	1.97	2.3	2.26	2.18	0.8849	25
22	Arizona	2.08	2.62	1.75	2.15	0.891	19
23	Nevada	2.27	2.09	1.95	2.10	0.8857	24
24	Middle Tennessee	1.76	1.59	1.87	1.74	0.822	50
25	Kansas St.	1.31	2.17	1.73	1.74	0.8328	46
26	Virginia Tech	1.46	1.8	1.58	1.61	0.87	34
27	Florida St.	1.22	1.72	1.54	1.49	0.8785	27
28	TCU	0.93	1.73	1.65	1.44	0.8894	21
29	Saint Mary’s	1.61	1.54	1.16	1.44	0.8861	23
30	Miami FL	1.19	1.61	1.39	1.40	0.8667	35
31	Oklahoma	0.64	1.69	1.32	1.22	0.853	41
32	North Carolina St.	0.98	1.25	1.4	1.21	0.8233	49
33	Creighton	0.92	1.42	1.17	1.17	0.8782	28
34	Butler	0.8	1.25	1.44	1.16	0.8908	20
35	Nebraska	0.66	1.58	1.21	1.15	0.7971	58
36	Arkansas	0.78	1.12	0.76	0.89	0.8526	42
37	Seton Hall	0.56	1.05	1.04	0.88	0.8601	39
38	Arizona St.	0.67	1.38	0.45	0.83	0.8547	40
39	St. Bonaventure	0.41	0.75	0.83	0.66	0.7995	57
40	Texas A&M	0.34	0.78	0.54	0.55	0.8659	37
41	Louisiana Lafayette	0.43	0.38	0.61	0.47	0.8011	56
42	Texas	-0.04	0.84	0.6	0.47	0.8636	38
43	Mississippi St.	0.37	0.62	0.31	0.43	0.8162	51
44	New Mexico St.	0.23	0.24	0.35	0.27	0.7936	61
45	Baylor	-0.42	0.63	0.43	0.21	0.8701	32
46	Florida	0.12	0.37	0.12	0.20	0.8732	30
47	Boise St.	0.21	0.27	0.12	0.20	0.8023	55
48	Louisville	-0.09	0.38	0.18	0.16	0.8762	29
49	Loyola Chicago	0.34	0.16	-0.09	0.14	0.796	59
50	UCLA	-0.09	0.54	-0.23	0.07	0.8159	52
51	Providence	-0.24	0.14	0.28	0.06	0.7804	66
52	Syracuse	-0.27	0.24	0	-0.01	0.8372	45
53	Maryland	-0.5	0.09	0.21	-0.07	0.8664	36
54	Missouri	-0.14	0.07	-0.29	-0.12	0.8468	44
55	Alabama	-0.27	0.03	-0.15	-0.13	0.8489	43
56	Marquette	-0.85	-0.27	-0.13	-0.42	0.8251	48
57	Vermont	-0.76	-0.63	-0.21	-0.53	0.773	69
58	Utah	-0.67	-0.15	-0.99	-0.60	0.7948	60
59	South Dakota St.	-0.68	-0.63	-0.76	-0.69	0.7167	88
60	Penn St.	-1.13	-0.52	-0.8	-0.82	0.8812	26
61	Georgia	-1.08	-0.9	-0.95	-0.98	0.7692	73
62	East Tennessee St.	-1.12	-1.24	-0.62	-0.99	0.7225	86
63	USC	-1.14	-0.52	-1.42	-1.03	0.8261	47
64	Western Kentucky	-1.08	-1.13	-0.97	-1.06	0.7702	71
65	Old Dominion	-1.13	-1.18	-1.19	-1.17	0.8052	54
66	LSU	-1.4	-1.02	-1.29	-1.24	0.7805	65
67	Washington	-1.31	-0.84	-1.56	-1.24	0.6746	100
68	Murray St.	-1.21	-1.5	-1.27	-1.33	0.7543	77
69	Oklahoma St.	-1.95	-0.99	-1.33	-1.42	0.7724	70
70	South Dakota	-1.37	-1.45	-1.56	-1.46	0.7663	74
71	Notre Dame	-1.86	-1.41	-1.48	-1.58	0.872	31
72	UCF	-1.83	-1.51	-1.55	-1.63	0.7188	87
73	Stephen F. Austin	-1.57	-1.75	-1.6	-1.64	0.5822	133
74	College of Charleston	-1.85	-1.66	-1.56	-1.69	0.6164	115
75	Temple	-2.02	-1.85	-1.54	-1.80	0.7301	81
76	Georgetown	-2.19	-1.8	-1.85	-1.95	0.7044	93
77	UNC Greensboro	-2.09	-2.28	-1.53	-1.97	0.6989	94
78	Boston College	-2.19	-1.84	-1.89	-1.97	0.7279	83
79	Indiana	-2.54	-1.6	-1.83	-1.99	0.7757	67
80	Belmont	-1.93	-2.11	-1.98	-2.01	0.7298	82
81	Rider	-2.1	-2.07	-1.98	-2.05	0.5912	123
82	BYU	-2	-2.08	-2.12	-2.07	0.7656	76
83	UC Santa Barbara	-1.87	-2	-2.43	-2.10	0.5892	124
84	Buffalo	-2.4	-2.34	-2.44	-2.39	0.7054	92
85	UNLV	-2.33	-2.29	-2.61	-2.41	0.7159	89
86	Montana	-2.13	-2.64	-2.73	-2.50	0.6702	101
87	St. John’s	-2.83	-2.34	-2.36	-2.51	0.773	68
88	Iowa St.	-2.92	-2.28	-2.49	-2.56	0.7138	90
89	Fresno St.	-2.68	-2.61	-2.88	-2.72	0.766	75
90	Penn	-3.24	-2.87	-2.95	-3.02	0.6015	121
91	Oregon	-3.17	-2.69	-3.46	-3.11	0.7879	63
92	Marshall	-3.15	-3.28	-3.14	-3.19	0.5721	142
93	Northwestern	-3.67	-2.99	-3.14	-3.27	0.7697	72
94	South Carolina	-3.26	-3.27	-3.34	-3.29	0.7301	80
95	Bucknell	-3.66	-3.24	-3.11	-3.34	0.6693	102
96	Utah Valley	-3.22	-3.56	-3.63	-3.47	0.6645	104
97	Wright St.	-3.48	-3.62	-3.32	-3.47	0.5649	146
98	Idaho	-3.17	-3.72	-3.6	-3.50	0.6064	118
99	Lipscomb	-3.56	-3.68	-3.39	-3.54	0.4748	175
100	Northeastern	-3.79	-3.61	-3.47	-3.62	0.6393	108
101	Wagner	-3.66	-3.71	-3.59	-3.65	0.5061	165
102	Weber St.	-3.48	-3.93	-3.67	-3.69	0.5874	127
103	Southern Illinois	-3.54	-3.91	-3.83	-3.76	0.6116	117
104	Ball St.	-3.91	-3.47	-3.91	-3.76	0.5436	150
105	Davidson	-3.97	-3.68	-3.82	-3.82	0.815	53
106	San Diego St.	-3.7	-3.82	-3.99	-3.84	0.7905	62
107	Tulsa	-4.07	-3.58	-3.87	-3.84	0.6207	112
108	Furman	-3.91	-4.09	-3.53	-3.84	0.6981	95
109	Wyoming	-3.76	-3.96	-3.94	-3.89	0.5853	129
110	Memphis	-4.1	-3.85	-3.74	-3.90	0.542	152
111	Northern Kentucky	-3.97	-4.02	-3.76	-3.92	0.7256	85
112	Colorado	-4.15	-3.62	-4.35	-4.04	0.6219	111
113	Toledo	-4.19	-3.98	-4.14	-4.10	0.6027	119
114	UMBC	-4.45	-4.33	-3.84	-4.21	0.4297	190
115	SMU	-4.38	-4.23	-4.17	-4.26	0.7863	64
116	Georgia St.	-4.43	-4.46	-4.25	-4.38	0.6319	110
117	UNC Asheville	-4.48	-4.87	-3.83	-4.39	0.4562	183
118	UC Davis	-4.1	-4.61	-4.73	-4.48	0.5618	147
119	Cal St. Fullerton	-4.45	-4.65	-4.83	-4.64	0.4572	182
120	Connecticut	-5.03	-4.52	-4.42	-4.66	0.5191	161
121	Minnesota	-5.05	-4.42	-4.58	-4.68	0.6942	96
122	Stanford	-4.83	-4.29	-5.06	-4.73	0.6901	98
123	Wisconsin	-5.15	-4.58	-4.56	-4.76	0.7527	78
124	Wofford	-5.02	-5.14	-4.68	-4.95	0.4881	171
125	Albany	-5.16	-5.06	-4.69	-4.97	0.5831	131
126	Seattle	-4.78	-5.08	-5.1	-4.99	0.4196	194
127	Winthrop	-5.16	-5.38	-4.74	-5.09	0.5887	125
128	Nicholls St.	-5	-5.35	-4.96	-5.10	0.4537	184
129	San Diego	-4.98	-5.1	-5.31	-5.13	0.5697	144
130	Vanderbilt	-5.34	-5.29	-5.23	-5.29	0.7379	79
131	Bradley	-5.06	-5.48	-5.49	-5.34	0.5742	139
132	Mississippi	-5.3	-5.41	-5.4	-5.37	0.6931	97
133	Hofstra	-5.5	-5.4	-5.21	-5.37	0.5328	155
134	Northern Colorado	-5.07	-5.77	-5.77	-5.54	0.5684	145
135	VCU	-5.75	-5.44	-5.47	-5.55	0.5866	128
136	William & Mary	-5.73	-5.66	-5.47	-5.62	0.4941	169
137	Canisius	-5.77	-5.76	-5.74	-5.76	0.5876	126
138	Florida Gulf Coast	-5.77	-5.82	-5.7	-5.76	0.6177	114
139	Georgia Southern	-5.79	-5.89	-5.63	-5.77	0.5829	132
140	Grand Canyon	-5.65	-5.83	-5.88	-5.79	0.6493	106
141	Southeastern Louisiana	-5.91	-6.09	-5.81	-5.94	0.3607	224
142	Portland St.	-5.7	-6	-6.16	-5.95	0.5444	149
143	Illinois St.	-5.82	-6.18	-6.21	-6.07	0.5201	160
144	Harvard	-6.43	-6.08	-6.02	-6.18	0.5296	158
145	UAB	-6.13	-6.35	-6.18	-6.22	0.6375	109
146	Georgia Tech	-6.53	-6.17	-6.22	-6.31	0.618	113
147	Iowa	-6.58	-6.22	-6.13	-6.31	0.7061	91
148	Illinois	-6.54	-6.11	-6.29	-6.31	0.6834	99
149	DePaul	-6.72	-6.03	-6.29	-6.35	0.6652	103
150	Niagara	-6.57	-6.28	-6.26	-6.37	0.4116	200
151	San Francisco	-6.28	-6.41	-6.44	-6.38	0.5451	148
152	Drake	-6.15	-6.38	-6.63	-6.39	0.5082	164
153	Saint Louis	-6.62	-6.3	-6.37	-6.43	0.5848	130
154	Utah St.	-6.35	-6.61	-6.37	-6.44	0.5735	140
155	Oakland	-6.53	-6.42	-6.4	-6.45	0.5398	153
156	Missouri St.	-6.17	-6.71	-6.67	-6.52	0.6598	105
157	Wake Forest	-6.69	-6.63	-6.31	-6.54	0.7274	84
158	Oregon St.	-6.65	-6.06	-6.93	-6.55	0.6462	107
159	UT Arlington	-6.61	-6.72	-6.34	-6.56	0.5793	135
160	Hawaii	-6.48	-6.65	-6.65	-6.59	0.3656	219
161	Tennessee Tech	-6.6	-6.78	-6.43	-6.60	0.3654	220
162	UTSA	-6.57	-6.8	-6.55	-6.64	0.4399	186
163	Navy	-6.9	-6.67	-6.44	-6.67	0.4183	196
164	Austin Peay	-6.65	-6.8	-6.58	-6.68	0.4046	203
165	Louisiana Tech	-6.54	-6.92	-6.64	-6.70	0.5721	141
166	St. Francis PA	-6.79	-6.85	-6.74	-6.79	0.4014	208
167	Radford	-6.89	-7.06	-6.45	-6.80	0.4311	189
168	Iona	-6.92	-6.86	-6.66	-6.81	0.6022	120
169	Rutgers	-7.23	-6.69	-6.64	-6.85	0.5774	137
170	Jacksonville St.	-6.72	-6.99	-6.86	-6.86	0.5278	159
171	Eastern Michigan	-6.86	-6.76	-6.96	-6.86	0.459	181
172	Fort Wayne	-6.85	-7.03	-6.76	-6.88	0.5327	156
173	New Mexico	-6.85	-6.86	-7.11	-6.94	0.6135	116
174	Tulane	-7.1	-6.85	-6.9	-6.95	0.5013	167
175	Evansville	-6.79	-7.14	-7.06	-7.00	0.506	166
176	Sam Houston St.	-6.96	-7.16	-6.99	-7.04	0.3887	212
177	Towson	-7.21	-7.05	-6.95	-7.07	0.5814	134
178	Tennessee St.	-7.32	-7.44	-7.17	-7.31	0.4073	202
179	Louisiana Monroe	-7.52	-7.51	-7.1	-7.38	0.3458	226
180	Northern Iowa	-7.31	-7.5	-7.48	-7.43	0.5769	138
181	New Orleans	-7.48	-7.53	-7.34	-7.45	0.294	252
182	Savannah St.	-7.54	-7.69	-7.29	-7.51	0.1739	325
183	Hartford	-7.57	-7.7	-7.31	-7.53	0.3376	233
184	North Texas	-7.44	-7.59	-7.64	-7.56	0.4339	188
185	Eastern Washington	-7.22	-7.83	-7.91	-7.65	0.5176	162
186	North Carolina A&T	-7.61	-7.72	-7.64	-7.66	0.2106	300
187	Western Michigan	-7.67	-7.58	-7.86	-7.70	0.4723	176
188	Mercer	-7.74	-8.01	-7.43	-7.73	0.6005	122
189	Illinois Chicago	-7.76	-7.74	-7.69	-7.73	0.4192	195
190	Pacific	-7.62	-7.73	-7.9	-7.75	0.491	170
191	Dayton	-7.98	-7.82	-7.65	-7.82	0.5717	143
192	George Washington	-8.36	-7.83	-7.72	-7.97	0.4165	197
193	Bowling Green	-8.11	-8.15	-8.12	-8.13	0.345	229
194	Saint Joseph’s	-8.45	-8.02	-8.02	-8.16	0.5791	136
195	Colgate	-8.42	-8.17	-7.99	-8.19	0.4259	192
196	Brown	-8.5	-8.15	-8.11	-8.25	0.2987	248
197	UC Irvine	-7.91	-8.35	-8.54	-8.27	0.5431	151
198	Duquesne	-8.42	-8.09	-8.4	-8.30	0.4529	185
199	Yale	-8.72	-8.22	-8.21	-8.38	0.4721	177
200	Grambling St.	-8.41	-8.39	-8.4	-8.40	0.2142	298
201	Liberty	-8.45	-8.8	-8.14	-8.46	0.4854	172
202	Lamar	-8.4	-8.51	-8.52	-8.48	0.4113	201
203	Central Michigan	-8.61	-8.48	-8.78	-8.62	0.461	180
204	Long Beach St.	-8.48	-8.48	-8.94	-8.63	0.3778	217
205	Washington St.	-8.67	-8.22	-9.02	-8.64	0.429	191
206	UT Rio Grande Valley	-8.68	-8.74	-8.82	-8.75	0.3173	240
207	Cornell	-8.98	-8.84	-8.62	-8.81	0.2732	268
208	Elon	-8.9	-8.92	-8.69	-8.84	0.3772	218
209	Lehigh	-9.08	-8.81	-8.63	-8.84	0.3622	223
210	Southern Miss	-8.71	-9.13	-8.73	-8.86	0.3383	232
211	South Alabama	-8.91	-8.99	-8.72	-8.87	0.3915	211
212	Miami OH	-8.82	-8.82	-9	-8.88	0.4203	193
213	Princeton	-9.11	-8.81	-8.82	-8.91	0.4639	178
214	George Mason	-9.28	-9.01	-8.9	-9.06	0.3844	214
215	Abilene Christian	-9.03	-9.23	-9.07	-9.11	0.2943	251
216	Troy	-9.22	-9.34	-9.03	-9.20	0.4797	173
217	Pittsburgh	-9.61	-9.12	-9.12	-9.28	0.3568	225
218	North Dakota St.	-9.14	-9.39	-9.36	-9.30	0.4946	168
219	Mount St. Mary’s	-9.33	-9.28	-9.28	-9.30	0.2987	249
220	Cal St. Bakersfield	-9.24	-9.5	-9.37	-9.37	0.3338	236
221	Idaho St.	-9.21	-9.6	-9.45	-9.42	0.274	267
222	Southern	-9.57	-9.38	-9.47	-9.47	0.1753	323
223	Denver	-9.33	-9.62	-9.63	-9.53	0.3432	231
224	Richmond	-9.79	-9.62	-9.28	-9.56	0.4614	179
225	Colorado St.	-9.56	-9.51	-9.75	-9.61	0.3813	215
226	Air Force	-9.53	-9.62	-9.75	-9.63	0.2758	264
227	Robert Morris	-9.58	-9.78	-9.59	-9.65	0.3323	237
228	Campbell	-9.75	-9.99	-9.37	-9.70	0.3861	213
229	Bethune Cookman	-9.69	-9.68	-9.93	-9.77	0.1988	310
230	Valparaiso	-9.57	-9.81	-9.98	-9.79	0.5391	154
231	Central Arkansas	-9.81	-9.72	-9.93	-9.82	0.4015	207
232	La Salle	-10.26	-9.78	-9.58	-9.87	0.5302	157
233	North Florida	-10	-9.86	-9.85	-9.90	0.225	289
234	Massachusetts	-10.15	-9.67	-9.92	-9.91	0.4373	187
235	Western Illinois	-9.85	-10.01	-9.93	-9.93	0.2411	280
236	Kent St.	-9.95	-9.95	-9.97	-9.96	0.4	209
237	Fairfield	-10.01	-10.14	-9.81	-9.99	0.3644	221
238	Southern Utah	-9.73	-10.13	-10.15	-10.00	0.2185	292
239	Texas St.	-9.99	-10.19	-9.85	-10.01	0.4041	204
240	East Carolina	-10.28	-10.01	-10.03	-10.11	0.2397	282
241	Western Carolina	-10.29	-10.46	-9.76	-10.17	0.2071	304
242	Hampton	-10.17	-10.27	-10.14	-10.19	0.2886	257
243	Florida Atlantic	-10.15	-10.3	-10.19	-10.21	0.2961	250
244	Ohio	-10.42	-10.4	-10.51	-10.44	0.4163	198
245	Indiana St.	-10.31	-10.77	-10.69	-10.59	0.5166	163
246	North Carolina Central	-10.55	-10.58	-10.69	-10.61	0.2258	287
247	High Point	-10.64	-10.88	-10.33	-10.62	0.3943	210
248	Southeast Missouri St.	-10.5	-10.86	-10.56	-10.64	0.2886	258
249	Akron	-10.78	-10.54	-10.75	-10.69	0.2898	255
250	NJIT	-10.97	-10.85	-10.74	-10.85	0.3023	245
251	Manhattan	-10.98	-10.79	-10.84	-10.87	0.4024	206
252	Milwaukee	-11.01	-10.93	-10.72	-10.89	0.3452	228
253	Army	-11.07	-10.89	-10.7	-10.89	0.3184	239
254	Montana St.	-10.68	-11.28	-11.13	-11.03	0.2876	259
255	Charleston Southern	-11.14	-11.3	-10.69	-11.04	0.2801	261
256	Texas Southern	-11.17	-11.02	-11.11	-11.10	0.2748	266
257	North Dakota	-10.8	-11.45	-11.18	-11.14	0.2618	274
258	Appalachian St.	-11.32	-11.22	-10.96	-11.17	0.3794	216
259	McNeese St.	-11.11	-11.36	-11.13	-11.20	0.2085	302
260	Gardner Webb	-11.3	-11.52	-10.78	-11.20	0.253	276
261	Fordham	-11.56	-11.11	-11.13	-11.27	0.2787	262
262	Prairie View A&M	-11.23	-11.25	-11.44	-11.31	0.2508	277
263	Santa Clara	-11.2	-11.36	-11.38	-11.31	0.2841	260
264	Northern Illinois	-11.48	-11.19	-11.39	-11.35	0.334	235
265	Boston University	-11.65	-11.36	-11.15	-11.39	0.3076	243
266	Columbia	-11.65	-11.39	-11.19	-11.41	0.4137	199
267	California	-11.58	-10.98	-11.73	-11.43	0.3436	230
268	Fairleigh Dickinson	-11.61	-11.64	-11.39	-11.55	0.2597	275
269	Coastal Carolina	-11.78	-11.89	-11.47	-11.71	0.4037	205
270	St. Francis NY	-11.79	-11.82	-11.61	-11.74	0.2073	303
271	Stony Brook	-12.05	-11.94	-11.65	-11.88	0.3453	227
272	Nebraska Omaha	-11.81	-11.95	-11.91	-11.89	0.2911	254
273	Monmouth	-12.23	-11.96	-11.84	-12.01	0.478	174
274	Portland	-12.06	-12.13	-12.16	-12.12	0.2754	265
275	Eastern Illinois	-12.06	-12.35	-12.09	-12.17	0.2894	256
276	IUPUI	-12.24	-12.24	-12.08	-12.19	0.2296	284
277	Central Connecticut	-12.16	-12.3	-12.18	-12.21	0.1916	312
278	Delaware	-12.46	-12.37	-12.17	-12.33	0.3013	247
279	Texas A&M Corpus Chris	-12.25	-12.46	-12.37	-12.36	0.1905	313
280	The Citadel	-12.47	-12.76	-11.89	-12.37	0.2016	307
281	Loyola Marymount	-12.3	-12.36	-12.5	-12.39	0.3104	242
282	FIU	-12.46	-12.69	-12.59	-12.58	0.3028	244
283	Saint Peter’s	-12.73	-12.57	-12.47	-12.59	0.3346	234
284	UMass Lowell	-12.78	-12.85	-12.48	-12.70	0.2098	301
285	SIU Edwardsville	-12.65	-12.91	-12.63	-12.73	0.1846	319
286	Oral Roberts	-12.79	-12.8	-12.75	-12.78	0.2913	253
287	Jacksonville	-12.86	-12.86	-12.84	-12.85	0.1504	328
288	Drexel	-13.03	-12.97	-12.69	-12.90	0.3017	246
289	Kennesaw St.	-13.02	-13.02	-12.88	-12.97	0.2166	297
290	Jackson St.	-13.1	-13.14	-12.97	-13.07	0.1163	336
291	UTEP	-12.87	-13.26	-13.1	-13.08	0.2677	270
292	Morgan St.	-13.17	-13.05	-13.01	-13.08	0.1752	324
293	Dartmouth	-13.42	-13.24	-13.03	-13.23	0.2712	269
294	LIU Brooklyn	-13.36	-13.56	-13.31	-13.41	0.2657	271
295	Arkansas St.	-13.48	-13.52	-13.24	-13.41	0.262	273
296	Norfolk St.	-13.33	-13.58	-13.36	-13.42	0.185	318
297	Holy Cross	-13.7	-13.43	-13.16	-13.43	0.2276	285
298	South Florida	-13.65	-13.46	-13.46	-13.52	0.1899	315
299	New Hampshire	-13.68	-13.65	-13.28	-13.54	0.3161	241
300	Presbyterian	-13.58	-13.95	-13.1	-13.54	0.1443	330
301	UMKC	-13.49	-13.76	-13.42	-13.56	0.2019	306
302	Alcorn St.	-13.82	-13.58	-13.68	-13.69	0.1109	338
303	Quinnipiac	-13.76	-13.81	-13.56	-13.71	0.2335	283
304	UNC Wilmington	-13.89	-13.96	-13.58	-13.81	0.3285	238
305	VMI	-14.04	-14.26	-13.42	-13.91	0.1241	331
306	Samford	-13.97	-14.24	-13.52	-13.91	0.2422	279
307	Eastern Kentucky	-13.77	-14.18	-13.78	-13.91	0.226	286
308	Binghamton	-14.06	-14.15	-13.84	-14.02	0.2446	278
309	James Madison	-14.21	-14.23	-13.96	-14.13	0.3633	222
310	Green Bay	-14.3	-14.32	-14.24	-14.29	0.2621	272
311	South Carolina St.	-14.36	-14.36	-14.16	-14.29	0.0764	344
312	Lafayette	-14.75	-14.5	-14.2	-14.48	0.277	263
313	Arkansas Pine Bluff	-14.52	-14.58	-14.6	-14.57	0.1184	333
314	UC Riverside	-14.38	-14.75	-14.89	-14.67	0.2201	291
315	Stetson	-14.69	-14.78	-14.66	-14.71	0.1897	316
316	Alabama St.	-14.78	-14.78	-14.59	-14.72	0.0953	340
317	Cal Poly	-14.54	-14.63	-15.01	-14.73	0.1826	320
318	Incarnate Word	-14.89	-15.09	-14.86	-14.95	0.0979	339
319	Morehead St.	-15.02	-15.31	-14.81	-15.05	0.2246	290
320	Loyola MD	-15.34	-15	-14.87	-15.07	0.1808	321
321	Houston Baptist	-15.49	-15.53	-15.37	-15.46	0.1563	326
322	Detroit	-15.54	-15.56	-15.32	-15.47	0.2168	296
323	Sacramento St.	-15.14	-15.78	-15.65	-15.52	0.2182	293
324	Chattanooga	-15.6	-15.86	-15.2	-15.55	0.2174	295
325	Siena	-15.73	-15.6	-15.39	-15.57	0.2402	281
326	Tennessee Martin	-15.51	-15.74	-15.49	-15.58	0.2178	294
327	Charlotte	-15.57	-15.72	-15.55	-15.61	0.2058	305
328	Sacred Heart	-16.13	-16.22	-16.09	-16.15	0.1991	309
329	Cal St. Northridge	-15.78	-16.23	-16.51	-16.17	0.1479	329
330	Little Rock	-16.18	-16.47	-16.09	-16.25	0.2106	299
331	San Jose St.	-16.14	-16.34	-16.45	-16.31	0.2015	308
332	Youngstown St.	-16.32	-16.5	-16.23	-16.35	0.1758	322
333	American	-16.67	-16.51	-16.13	-16.44	0.1546	327
334	Rice	-16.34	-16.65	-16.45	-16.48	0.1966	311
335	Cleveland St.	-16.73	-16.61	-16.48	-16.61	0.1901	314
336	Howard	-17.1	-17.05	-17.01	-17.05	0.1182	334
337	Florida A&M	-17.33	-17.36	-17.25	-17.31	0.082	342
338	Maryland Eastern Shore	-17.52	-17.46	-17.21	-17.40	0.0443	349
339	Maine	-17.51	-17.49	-17.2	-17.40	0.1191	332
340	Pepperdine	-17.29	-17.46	-17.53	-17.43	0.2257	288
341	Northwestern St.	-17.7	-17.66	-17.71	-17.69	0.0601	346
342	Northern Arizona	-17.43	-17.9	-17.89	-17.74	0.1147	337
343	Marist	-17.87	-17.84	-17.74	-17.82	0.187	317
344	USC Upstate	-18.39	-18.26	-18.12	-18.26	0.1164	335
345	Coppin St.	-18.43	-18.18	-18.31	-18.31	0.0671	345
346	Longwood	-18.86	-19.1	-18.41	-18.79	0.0768	343
347	Chicago St.	-18.93	-18.85	-18.77	-18.85	0.0504	348
348	Mississippi Valley St.	-20.06	-20.02	-20.06	-20.05	0.0571	347
349	Alabama A&M	-20.6	-20.55	-20.69	-20.61	0.0372	351
350	Bryant	-21.13	-21.19	-20.96	-21.09	0.0943	341
351	Delaware St.	-21.31	-21.44	-21.25	-21.33	0.0427	350

Fun with Quadrants

It’s amazing how much tougher the Big 10 is than the Pac 12. Quadrant 2 wins in the Big 10 are roughly as difficult as quadrant 1 wins in the Pac 12. Quadrant 1 wins in the Big 10 are as hard as it gets. The SEC is a bit tougher than the Pac 12, but man are there a lot of quadrant 1 wins available there. If you want to know which conferences are going to get hooked up or hose on Selection Sunday, this is the key as to who and why.

Conference	Quadrant	Number	Bubble EW%
B10	1	14	31.14%
ACC	1	23	32.31%
B12	1	17	33.70%
WCC	1	5	35.26%
BE	1	17	37.23%
Amer	1	12	38.94%
SEC	1	22	41.42%
MWC	1	5	45.70%
AE	1	1	46.48%
OVC	1	1	49.03%
SB	1	2	50.21%
B10	2	9	50.62%
P12	1	15	50.64%
MVC	1	2	51.09%
WAC	1	2	51.54%
WCC	2	3	52.06%
A10	1	6	52.08%
CUSA	1	4	52.71%
Sum	1	1	54.03%
SC	1	1	56.07%
B12	2	9	56.11%
ACC	2	13	57.24%
A10	2	5	60.17%
Horz	2	2	61.21%
MWC	2	7	61.38%
CUSA	2	5	61.49%
SEC	2	15	62.26%
MAC	1	2	62.85%
BE	2	8	63.75%
CAA	1	2	63.80%
Sum	2	4	65.19%
OVC	2	4	65.61%
Ivy	2	1	66.28%
Pat	2	2	66.54%
BSky	2	4	66.93%
MAAC	1	1	67.29%
SC	2	6	67.74%
B10	3	16	68.45%
AE	2	3	68.74%
Amer	2	9	69.09%
WAC	2	3	69.19%
P12	2	10	69.50%
BE	3	4	71.57%
B12	3	4	72.25%
MVC	2	9	72.46%
SB	2	1	72.61%
NEC	2	1	74.39%
BW	2	5	75.28%
SEC	3	5	76.04%
MAC	2	5	76.19%
ASun	2	1	76.70%
MWC	3	13	77.16%
SB	3	11	77.69%
BSth	2	1	78.02%
ACC	3	7	78.04%
MAAC	2	3	78.48%
Sum	3	5	78.49%
Horz	3	7	79.14%
CUSA	3	12	79.26%
P12	3	8	79.95%
CAA	2	7	80.00%
WCC	3	9	80.41%
A10	3	18	80.92%
SC	3	8	81.05%
Ivy	3	8	82.03%
ASun	3	5	82.45%
BSky	3	15	82.52%
MAAC	3	12	82.74%
MVC	3	17	82.90%
WAC	3	7	83.00%
Amer	3	8	83.59%
BSth	3	9	83.65%
Slnd	3	10	84.04%
B10	4	3	84.18%
Pat	3	6	84.33%
BE	4	1	84.45%
OVC	3	11	84.99%
CAA	3	10	85.07%
MAC	3	19	85.67%
BW	3	10	85.89%
AE	3	6	85.95%
NEC	3	6	86.71%
MVC	4	2	90.61%
SB	4	22	90.98%
ACC	4	2	91.04%
Ivy	4	15	91.22%
P12	4	3	91.48%
A10	4	13	91.57%
SWAC	3	1	91.66%
Sum	4	14	92.26%
CAA	4	11	92.39%
WCC	4	13	92.73%
BSth	4	20	92.82%
CUSA	4	21	93.02%
WAC	4	12	93.25%
MAAC	4	17	93.32%
MAC	4	10	93.43%
MWC	4	8	93.51%
Horz	4	21	93.65%
AE	4	17	93.71%
Pat	4	22	93.77%
MEAC	3	3	93.90%
Slnd	4	29	94.00%
OVC	4	20	94.23%
Amer	4	7	94.36%
BSky	4	17	94.66%
NEC	4	23	94.90%
ASun	4	18	94.94%
SC	4	15	94.99%
BW	4	12	95.15%
SWAC	4	29	96.77%
MEAC	4	36	96.83%