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Monthly Archives: October 2018

The Saints have a chance to put themselves in pole position for the #1 seed in the NFC this week. Their remaining schedule is fairly tough so staying ahead of the Rams in the loss column won’t be easy. Of course, if the Rams win they’ll pretty much lock on home field advantage in the NFC by Thanksgiving.

The Chiefs and Patriots are pretty much a coin-flip for the #1 seed in the AFC due to the Patriots tiebreaker advantage. We’ll know a lot more after the Chiefs game in Mexico City against the Rams.

Team Market expected wins Pythag
Los Angeles Rams 13.57 0.7353
Kansas City Chiefs 12.34 0.6424
New England Patriots 11.94 0.6999
New Orleans Saints 11.44 0.6585
Los Angeles Chargers 9.95 0.5495
Houston Texans 9.52 0.5306
Carolina Panthers 9.48 0.5361
Pittsburgh Steelers 9.40 0.6060
Cincinnati Bengals 9.16 0.5201
Chicago Bears 9.14 0.5790
Washington Redskins 9.02 0.4769
Minnesota Vikings 8.87 0.5741
Baltimore Ravens 8.82 0.6013
Philadelphia Eagles 8.65 0.6227
Green Bay Packers 8.60 0.5680
Seattle Seahawks 8.24 0.4628
Jacksonville Jaguars 8.10 0.5913
Atlanta Falcons 7.65 0.5487
Dallas Cowboys 7.28 0.4840
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7.23 0.4786
Miami Dolphins 7.17 0.3402
Detroit Lions 7.08 0.4788
Indianapolis Colts 6.89 0.4319
Tennessee Titans 6.69 0.3920
Denver Broncos 6.67 0.4419
New York Jets 6.34 0.3617
Cleveland Browns 5.27 0.3820
New York Giants 4.65 0.4357
San Francisco 49ers 4.45 0.3947
Buffalo Bills 4.23 0.2220
Arizona Cardinals 4.20 0.3158
Oakland Raiders 3.96 0.3502

This is the first half of a brutal two weeks for the Packers. They travel to Los Angeles to face the Rams, and then to New England to face the Patriots.

As of right now it looks like it will be a very good morning for PFF. I’ll run the numbers on how much they’ve clawed back before SNF.

Team Line Risked To Win Result
Ind-Oak o51 98 92 0
Colts 0 14074 7907 0
GB-LAR o57 5660 6000 0
Rams -7.5 10721 11471 0
49ers -2.5 31956 27788 0
SF-Ariz o41 19968 21366 0

 

PFF had a mediocre result in London:

Current Tab -$391,361.05
% of Bankroll -195.68%
Standard Dev 338439
Two-tailed Z -1.16

They’ll be trying to do better in the early slate:

Team Line Risked To Win Result
Redskins -1 35888 33230 0
Was-NYG O43.5 5941 5166 0
Sea-Det U48.5 98 92 0
Seahawks 3 29673 29379 0
Panthers 2.5 23876 25547 0
Bal-Car o44 14241 13065 0
Chiefs 0 7431 1896 0
Bengals -3.5 3090 3000 0
TB-Cinc U54.5 10757 11079 0
Jets 0 3416 11000 0
Cle-Pit o48 3212 3118 0

 

PFF did a good job of modifying their opinions to flow along with the market this week:

It’s subtle.

They’re currently down close to $400K:

Current Tab -$387,043.60
% of Bankroll -193.52%
Standard Dev 338365
Two-tailed Z -1.14

They’ll be playing conservatively in London:

Team Line Risked To Win Result
Eagles 0 4640 2367 0
Phi-Jax o44 6685 6190 0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

In the abstract, +7.5 at even money is a much better line than +300 on the moneyline. As such, I can have a modicum of sympathy for this:

Mia-Hou2

Of course, they also have incentives not to record picks on large underdogs:

ytd

Taking Miami would put that pristine 70% moneyline win rate in jeopardy for no good reason.

The thing is, in the real world there are things like a “Vigorish” and the “Kelly-Criterion.” We keep score with the real lines. As such, here are tonight’s PFF wagers:

Team Line Risked To Win Result
Dolphins 0 6414 19884 0
Dolphins 7.5 9752 8707 0
Mia-Hou o45 20420 19448 0

A tough Monday night put them to -$390K for the season. We’ll see if they can cut into that tonight.

Current Tab -$390,325.42
% of Bankroll -195.16%
Standard Dev 337604
Two-tailed Z -1.16

These haven’t been adjusted at all for the early NBA season results. Frankly, I should have done this last week. Oops.

In retrospect it’s possible the Lakers won’t quite be the team we were hoping. As for the Rockets, enjoy the Carmelo experience.

Please try to look away from the Knicks. Why Jim Dolan, why?!

Golden State Warriors 0.7614
Boston Celtics 0.7151
Houston Rockets 0.6996
Toronto Raptors 0.6779
Philadelphia 76ers 0.6439
Utah Jazz 0.6191
Denver Nuggets 0.5942
Oklahoma City Thunder 0.5936
Los Angeles Lakers 0.5903
Milwaukee Bucks 0.5756
Indiana Pacers 0.5725
New Orleans Pelicans 0.5474
Washington Wizards 0.5412
Portland Trail Blazers 0.5207
San Antonio Spurs 0.5163
Miami Heat 0.5146
Minnesota Timberwolves 0.5141
Los Angeles Clippers 0.4505
Detroit Pistons 0.4501
Dallas Mavericks 0.4352
Charlotte Hornets 0.4168
Memphis Grizzlies 0.4016
Brooklyn Nets 0.3755
Cleveland Cavaliers 0.3636
Orlando Magic 0.3447
Phoenix Suns 0.343
Chicago Bulls 0.3409
New York Knicks 0.3123
Sacramento Kings 0.2999
Atlanta Hawks 0.2618

 

The Chiefs and Patriots are turning the AFC into a two-team race. At this point it would require something odd for anyone else in the AFC to earn a bye. The Patriots tiebreaker edge may prove to be decisive in terms of who gets the #1 seed.

The NFC has a dominant favorite. Simply put, the road to the Super Bowl in the NFC goes through Los Angeles. Who gets the #2 seed is going to be an interesting question. If the Saints win this week, then the race is pretty much over. If the Vikings win, then it will be interesting. Note: The Vikings tie vs. Green Bay earlier this season means the Vikings won’t gain any additional tiebreak edge over the Saints.

One odd note: The futures markets have dropped heavily on both the Eagles and Jaguars, but this methodology won’t pick up on that until week 10 when each plays their next game after the London trip. Awkward.

Team Market expected wins Pythag
Los Angeles Rams 13.58 0.7534
Kansas City Chiefs 11.89 0.6254
New England Patriots 11.76 0.7024
New Orleans Saints 10.67 0.6310
Los Angeles Chargers 10.22 0.5791
Minnesota Vikings 9.54 0.5834
Houston Texans 9.27 0.5330
Pittsburgh Steelers 9.25 0.6133
Baltimore Ravens 9.18 0.5935
Chicago Bears 8.76 0.5645
Cincinnati Bengals 8.72 0.5230
Carolina Panthers 8.70 0.5074
Green Bay Packers 8.68 0.5519
Jacksonville Jaguars 8.62 0.5968
Washington Redskins 8.26 0.4528
Philadelphia Eagles 8.18 0.6120
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 8.02 0.5067
Atlanta Falcons 7.73 0.5520
Detroit Lions 7.63 0.4717
Seattle Seahawks 7.55 0.4523
Miami Dolphins 7.32 0.3350
Dallas Cowboys 7.13 0.4623
Tennessee Titans 6.89 0.4104
Denver Broncos 6.71 0.4308
New York Jets 6.69 0.3796
Indianapolis Colts 6.33 0.4274
Cleveland Browns 5.86 0.4216
New York Giants 5.12 0.4219
San Francisco 49ers 4.94 0.3922
Oakland Raiders 4.53 0.3576
Buffalo Bills 4.47 0.2329
Arizona Cardinals 3.78 0.3264

So, um… these teams have sure been disappointing this season. As for PFF, they had a tough Sunday and are back on the wrong side of -$300K. Perhaps they’ll cut into that tonight.

Current Tab -$309,047.42
% of Bankroll -154.52%
Standard Dev 328086
Two-tailed Z -0.94

This was locked in as of 4 PM Central time.

Team Line Risked To Win Result
NYG-ATL o52 78040 78040 0
Falcons 0 18700 9350 0
Falcons -4 12588 11989 0