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Monthly Archives: November 2015

This is becoming unreal. Football Outsiders is now down $3, 065,947 on the season. Over a two-year stretch they are down $7,721,447 (SD -2.23). That’s almost impossible to do. In any event:

New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos

Denver Broncos +3, risking $72,736 to win $67,348.

I’ve been told I should set this up as a scheduled tweet, but I don’t want to assume Football Outsiders will continue to lose. But should I? Let’s look at where we were heading into this morning:

Over a period of 431 games Football Outsiders lost $7,007,933 with a standardized bankroll of $1M. I promised I would talk about statistical significance. Heading into this morning Football Outsiders was 2.04 SD below the norm. Yes, that is bad. Very bad. I’m wondering if they stole Jobu’s rum. Counting this morning they’re down $2,777,341 for the year (the SD is now 2.15 below the norm).

As for the afternoon games:

Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers

Arizona Cardinals -10.5, risking $109,016 to win $98,213

 

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Seattle Seahawks

Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5, risking $179,590 to win $171,038

 

I’ll be back this evening with the night game.

Right now I’m thankful that the Jets still have a reasonable shot at the AFC #6 seed. Football Outsiders may be thankful  that there is still plenty of season left for a comeback, as a 1-2 Thanksgiving slate dropped them to -$2,352,433.

New Orleans Saints @ Houston Texans

New Orleans Saints +3, risking $162,685 to win $152,042

 

Minnesota Vikings @ Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta Falcons -1, risking $18,255 to win $17,386

 

St. Louis Rams @ Cincinnati Bengals

Cincinnati Bengals -8, risking $172,620 to win $164,400

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Indianapolis Colts

Tampa Bay +3, risking $176,583 to win $187,178

 

New York Giants @ Washington Redskins

New York Giants -2.5, risking $225,106 to win $197,461

 

Oakland Raiders @ Tennessee Titans

Football Outsiders agreed with the line.

 

Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs

Football Outsiders agreed with the line.

 

Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets

New York Jets -3.5, risking $92,386 to win $94,234

 

San Diego Chargers @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Jacksonville Jaguars -4, risking $100,913 to win $97,974

 

I’ll be back in a few hours with the two (two?!) afternoon games. I am going to run a full statistical analysis of Football Outsiders two-year run, but first I need to remember which spreadsheet I kept last year’s information in:

“But which of us is the real duck, Mr. Frischberg, and not just an illusion?”

Football Outsiders is currently down $2,261,915. After last year’s disaster this is becoming statistically significant. Still, they are not giving up, so I won’t give up on them.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Detroit Lions

Philadelphia Eagles +2, risking $97,868 to win $95,949

 

I’ll tweet out the information on the two later games.

Happy Thanksgiving y’all!

There numbers used the F+ rankings as their base. They presume each individual team runs the table, including vs. the most likely conference championship game opponent:

Percentile Pythag
Clemson 0.949 0.9405
Iowa 0.949 0.7629
Notre Dame 0.907 0.8884
Alabama 0.8886 0.9521
Michigan St. 0.8872 0.8463
Florida 0.8657 0.8331
Oklahoma 0.8244 0.9113
North Carolina 0.8108 0.7739
Ohio St. 0.7995 0.8849
Oklahoma St. 0.7708 0.7869
Baylor 0.7289 0.8782

Pythag is how good you are. A team with a Pythag of .750 would expect to beat an average team on a neutral field 75% of the time.

Percentile is a bit more complicated. I took a team with a Pythag of .900 and placed it against every contenders schedule. Let me give a simple example:

University State:

A team with a Pythag of .900 would go undefeated vs. University State’s schedule 10% of the time. They would go X-1 vs. the schedule 20% of the time.

With that information, if University State went undefeated, their Percentile would be 95% (right smack dab in the middle of that 10%). If they went X-1, their percentile would be 80%.

The big surprise to me is Notre Dame’s schedule. It’s quite brutal. I’ll see if I can calculate SOSMOV tomorrow to see how dominant they’ve been vs. it. I imagine SOSMOV is going to prefer Oklahoma.