Some College Football Numbers

There numbers used the F+ rankings as their base. They presume each individual team runs the table, including vs. the most likely conference championship game opponent:

Percentile Pythag
Clemson 0.949 0.9405
Iowa 0.949 0.7629
Notre Dame 0.907 0.8884
Alabama 0.8886 0.9521
Michigan St. 0.8872 0.8463
Florida 0.8657 0.8331
Oklahoma 0.8244 0.9113
North Carolina 0.8108 0.7739
Ohio St. 0.7995 0.8849
Oklahoma St. 0.7708 0.7869
Baylor 0.7289 0.8782

Pythag is how good you are. A team with a Pythag of .750 would expect to beat an average team on a neutral field 75% of the time.

Percentile is a bit more complicated. I took a team with a Pythag of .900 and placed it against every contenders schedule. Let me give a simple example:

University State:

A team with a Pythag of .900 would go undefeated vs. University State’s schedule 10% of the time. They would go X-1 vs. the schedule 20% of the time.

With that information, if University State went undefeated, their Percentile would be 95% (right smack dab in the middle of that 10%). If they went X-1, their percentile would be 80%.

The big surprise to me is Notre Dame’s schedule. It’s quite brutal. I’ll see if I can calculate SOSMOV tomorrow to see how dominant they’ve been vs. it. I imagine SOSMOV is going to prefer Oklahoma.







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