First off, let me get the plays out of the way:
PFF is now down $429,885 on the season (NCAAF + NFL). FO is down $204,892.
Football Outsiders likes the 49ers. PFF likes the Packers. What I’m wondering is how much they like the Packers:
If the Packers win the SB 20% of the time and the 49ers win it 27% of the time, then one would expect the two teams to be roughly equal with the 49ers home field advantage providing the only major difference. That’s what I found when I solved for those win %’s:
|San Francisco 49ers||64.37%||56.98%||27.00%|
|Green Bay Packers||64.60%||43.02%||20.00%|
|Kansas City Chiefs||70.07%||67.45%||38.00%|
If PFF had the Packers winning this game 43% of the time, they would have bet:
They bet less than a tenth of that, which suggests they don’t particularly respect their internal projections relative to those of the market.
There’s also the issue that their win %’s add up to 99.2%. That’s a problem given that playoff games can’t tie. Seems a bit lazy not to update the rules from the regular season, but what do I know.
Enjoy the game. Let’s see who gets to face the Chiefs in Miami.