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Monthly Archives: January 2020

First off, let me get the plays out of the way:

PFF:

Packers 7.5 14600 13774 0
Packers 0 4067 11754 0
GB-SF O46.5 1010 1000 0

FO:

49ers -7 29167 27778 0

PFF is now down $429,885 on the season (NCAAF + NFL). FO is down $204,892.

Football Outsiders likes the 49ers. PFF likes the Packers. What I’m wondering is how much they like the Packers:

If the Packers win the SB 20% of the time and the 49ers win it 27% of the time, then one would expect the two teams to be roughly equal with the 49ers home field advantage providing the only major difference. That’s what I found when I solved for those win %’s:

Team Pythag Conference SB
San Francisco 49ers 64.37% 56.98% 27.00%
Green Bay Packers 64.60% 43.02% 20.00%
Kansas City Chiefs 70.07% 67.45% 38.00%
Tennessee Titans 60.80% 32.55% 15.00%

If PFF had the Packers winning this game 43% of the time, they would have bet:

Packers 0 46554 134540 0

They bet less than a tenth of that, which suggests they don’t particularly respect their internal projections relative to those of the market.

There’s also the issue that their win %’s add up to 99.2%. That’s a problem given that playoff games can’t tie. Seems a bit lazy not to update the rules from the regular season, but what do I know.

Enjoy the game. Let’s see who gets to face the Chiefs in Miami.