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Monthly Archives: June 2016

Spain (and ESPN) suffered a defeat while I was en route to Los Angeles. Here is ESPN’s final play of the round:

Side Risked To Win Result
Poland 8020 6365 6365
Portugal 3490 3944 3944
Northern Ireland 22450 44900 -22450
France 37300 6661 6661
Slovakia 8407 43295 -8407
Hungary 2868 9549 -2868
Spain 11935 6451 -11935
Iceland 9255 35078
Net Results -28690
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Copa has not been kind to ESPN’s SPI predictions. They lost $8,607 on the qualifying:

To qualify, or not to qualify, that is the question Result
Fail to Qualify -378
Fail to Qualify -1864
Qualify -865
Qualify -793
No Opinion 0
Qualify 2
Fail to Qualify -859
Qualify -551
Qualify -1824
Qualify 73
Qualify -33
Fail to Qualify -400
Fail to Qualify -42
Fail to Qualify -474
Qualify -598
No Opinion 0
Net Qualifying Results -8607

They lost another $3,330 on the quarterfinal and semifinal matches:

Country Risked To Win Result
USA 16 15 15
Peru 627 1850 -627
No Opinion 0 0 0
Mexico 928 800 -928
USA 1789 6800 -1789
No Opinion 0 0 0
Net Q and S  Results -3330

They are also down $2,982 on futures bets, with two pending:

Argentina 9475 9559 Fail to win Copa
Chile 2000 222 Fail to win Copa

As for the final itself, they are risking $933.33 of their fixed $10,000 bankroll on Chile to upset Argentina:

Chile 933 2240 Win the Championship

In sum, ESPN is down $14,919. With a Chile win, they’ll finish down $5,120. If Argentina wins, ESPN will finish down $25,106, or 251.06% of their starting bankroll. Oof.

 

Yesterday was a 2-1 day for ESPN, but not great overall. Here are there plays for this round:

Side Risked To Win Result
Poland 8020 6365 6365
Portugal 3490 3944 3944
Northern Ireland 22450 44900 -22450
France 37300 6661
Slovakia 8407 43295
Hungary 2868 9549
Spain 11935 6451
Iceland 9255 35078

As for the previous round, they dropped $66,374:

Side Risked To Win Result Bankroll Result as %
100000
France -0.5 22300 8259 8259 108259 8.26%
Albania +0.5 43304 43304 -43304 64956 -40.00%
Slovakia -0.5 6351 11432 -6351 58604 -9.78%
Russia -0.5 6590 30117 -6590 52014 -11.25%
Turkey +0.5 19885 17597 -19885 32129 -38.23%
Northern Ireland +0.5 3156 3756 -3156 28973 -9.82%
Ukraine +0.5 5769 10112 -5769 23204 -19.91%
Czech Republic +0.5 2530 5216 -2530 20675 -10.90%
Ireland -0.5 1818 5326 -1818 18857 -8.79%
Belgium -0.5 2525 4394 -2525 16332 -13.39%
Hungary +0.5 1884 2450 2450 18782 15.00%
Iceland +0.5 4192 9002 9002 27784 47.93%
Russia -0.5 1174 1725 -1174 26610 -4.22%
Romania -0.5 1363 3449 -1363 25247 -5.12%
France -0.5 5453 1398 1398 26646 5.54%
England -0.5 746 522 522 27167 1.96%
Northern Ireland -0.5 2226 11573 11573 38741 42.60%
Poland -0.5 2113 11622 -2113 36627 -5.45%
Sweden -0.5 3242 12190 -3242 33386 -8.85%
No Draw 2297 988 -2297 31088 -6.88%
Turkey +0.5 4166 7624 -4166 26923 -13.40%
Ireland -0.5 751 3048 -751 26172 -2.79%
Iceland -0.5 2218 3837 -2218 23954 -8.47%
Austria +0.5 3034 4064 4064 28018 16.96%
Slovakia -0.5 701 3443 -701 27317 -2.50%
Russia -0.5 2369 3909 -2369 24948 -8.67%
Northern Ireland +0.5 3300 8744 -3300 21648 -13.23%
Ukraine -0.5 2764 10229 -2764 18884 -12.77%
Croatia -0.5 1039 4570 4570 23454 24.20%
Turkey +0.5 2880 2027 2027 25480 8.64%
Hungary +0.5 1763 3197 3197 28677 12.55%
Iceland -0.5 2829 7695 7695 36372 26.83%
Italy -0.5 3552 4830 -3552 32821 -9.76%
Belgium -0.5 853 805 805 33626 2.45%

 

Euro 2016 returns today. ESPN released projections a few days ago, so I ran the numbes with those projections and the lines at the time. These are all To Advance:

Side Risked To Win
Poland 8020 6365
Portugal 3490 3944
Northern Ireland 22450 44900
France 37300 6661
Slovakia 8407 43295
Hungary 2868 9549
Spain 11935 6451
Iceland 9255 35078

You’ll note a jump in the sizing. Because ESPN is betting all of these games at the same time, I decided to allow them to bet on credit with a standardized $100,000 bankroll. I also let them take another crack at the futures market:

Side Risked To Win Position
Switzerland 0 0 No Opinion
Poland 368 9200 Champion!
Croatia 31250 2717 Nope!
Portugal 21600 1440 Nope!
Wales 37000 841 Nope!
Northern Ireland 583 93200 Champion!
Hungary 2500 13 Nope!
Belgium 13600 1700 Nope!
Germany 19878 3433 Nope!
Slovakia 0 0 No Opinion
Italy 63250 2691 Nope!
Spain 9600 1371 Nope!
France 24375 97500 Champion!
Ireland 42800 150 Nope!
England 11550 856 Nope!
Iceland 0 0 No Opinion

Best of luck to ESPN. Perhaps they can turn the ship around.

 

 

Things looked bleak for ESPN, but they’ve rallied off four straight wins. They try to keep it going with the favorites Italy and Belgium:

Side Risked To Win Result Bankroll Result as %
100000
France -0.5 22300 8259 8259 108259 8.26%
Albania +0.5 43304 43304 -43304 64956 -40.00%
Slovakia -0.5 6351 11432 -6351 58604 -9.78%
Russia -0.5 6590 30117 -6590 52014 -11.25%
Turkey +0.5 19885 17597 -19885 32129 -38.23%
Northern Ireland +0.5 3156 3756 -3156 28973 -9.82%
Ukraine +0.5 5769 10112 -5769 23204 -19.91%
Czech Republic +0.5 2530 5216 -2530 20675 -10.90%
Ireland -0.5 1818 5326 -1818 18857 -8.79%
Belgium -0.5 2525 4394 -2525 16332 -13.39%
Hungary +0.5 1884 2450 2450 18782 15.00%
Iceland +0.5 4192 9002 9002 27784 47.93%
Russia -0.5 1174 1725 -1174 26610 -4.22%
Romania -0.5 1363 3449 -1363 25247 -5.12%
France -0.5 5453 1398 1398 26646 5.54%
England -0.5 746 522 522 27167 1.96%
Northern Ireland -0.5 2226 11573 11573 38741 42.60%
Poland -0.5 2113 11622 -2113 36627 -5.45%
Sweden -0.5 3242 12190 -3242 33386 -8.85%
No Draw 2297 988 -2297 31088 -6.88%
Turkey +0.5 4166 7624 -4166 26923 -13.40%
Ireland -0.5 751 3048 -751 26172 -2.79%
Iceland -0.5 2218 3837 -2218 23954 -8.47%
Austria +0.5 3034 4064 4064 28018 16.96%
Slovakia -0.5 701 3443 -701 27317 -2.50%
Russia -0.5 2369 3909 -2369 24948 -8.67%
Northern Ireland +0.5 3300 8744 -3300 21648 -13.23%
Ukraine -0.5 2764 10229 -2764 18884 -12.77%
Croatia -0.5 1039 4570 4570 23454 24.20%
Turkey +0.5 2880 2027 2027 25480 8.64%
Hungary +0.5 1763 3197 3197 28677 12.55%
Iceland -0.5 2829 7695 7695 36372 26.83%
Italy -0.5 3552 4830
Belgium -0.5 853 805

ESPN had a great afternoon yesterday, and will try to keep the run going with Iceland and Hungary:

Side Risked To Win Result Bankroll Result as %
100000
France -0.5 22300 8259 8259 108259 8.26%
Albania +0.5 43304 43304 -43304 64956 -40.00%
Slovakia -0.5 6351 11432 -6351 58604 -9.78%
Russia -0.5 6590 30117 -6590 52014 -11.25%
Turkey +0.5 19885 17597 -19885 32129 -38.23%
Northern Ireland +0.5 3156 3756 -3156 28973 -9.82%
Ukraine +0.5 5769 10112 -5769 23204 -19.91%
Czech Republic +0.5 2530 5216 -2530 20675 -10.90%
Ireland -0.5 1818 5326 -1818 18857 -8.79%
Belgium -0.5 2525 4394 -2525 16332 -13.39%
Hungary +0.5 1884 2450 2450 18782 15.00%
Iceland +0.5 4192 9002 9002 27784 47.93%
Russia -0.5 1174 1725 -1174 26610 -4.22%
Romania -0.5 1363 3449 -1363 25247 -5.12%
France -0.5 5453 1398 1398 26646 5.54%
England -0.5 746 522 522 27167 1.96%
Northern Ireland -0.5 2226 11573 11573 38741 42.60%
Poland -0.5 2113 11622 -2113 36627 -5.45%
Sweden -0.5 3242 12190 -3242 33386 -8.85%
No Draw 2297 988 -2297 31088 -6.88%
Turkey +0.5 4166 7624 -4166 26923 -13.40%
Ireland -0.5 751 3048 -751 26172 -2.79%
Iceland -0.5 2218 3837 -2218 23954 -8.47%
Austria +0.5 3034 4064 4064 28018 16.96%
Slovakia -0.5 701 3443 -701 27317 -2.50%
Russia -0.5 2369 3909 -2369 24948 -8.67%
Northern Ireland +0.5 3300 8744 -3300 21648 -13.23%
Ukraine -0.5 2764 10229 -2764 18884 -12.77%
Croatia -0.5 1039 4570 4570 23454 24.20%
Turkey +0.5 2880 2027 2027 25480 8.64%
Hungary +0.5 1763 3197
Iceland -0.5 2829 7695

But ESPN is sorely testing that tenet. They’ll be backing Croatia and Turkey this afternoon:

Side Risked To Win Result Bankroll Result as %
100000
France -0.5 22300 8259 8259 108259 8.26%
Albania +0.5 43304 43304 -43304 64956 -40.00%
Slovakia -0.5 6351 11432 -6351 58604 -9.78%
Russia -0.5 6590 30117 -6590 52014 -11.25%
Turkey +0.5 19885 17597 -19885 32129 -38.23%
Northern Ireland +0.5 3156 3756 -3156 28973 -9.82%
Ukraine +0.5 5769 10112 -5769 23204 -19.91%
Czech Republic +0.5 2530 5216 -2530 20675 -10.90%
Ireland -0.5 1818 5326 -1818 18857 -8.79%
Belgium -0.5 2525 4394 -2525 16332 -13.39%
Hungary +0.5 1884 2450 2450 18782 15.00%
Iceland +0.5 4192 9002 9002 27784 47.93%
Russia -0.5 1174 1725 -1174 26610 -4.22%
Romania -0.5 1363 3449 -1363 25247 -5.12%
France -0.5 5453 1398 1398 26646 5.54%
England -0.5 746 522 522 27167 1.96%
Northern Ireland -0.5 2226 11573 11573 38741 42.60%
Poland -0.5 2113 11622 -2113 36627 -5.45%
Sweden -0.5 3242 12190 -3242 33386 -8.85%
No Draw 2297 988 -2297 31088 -6.88%
Turkey +0.5 4166 7624 -4166 26923 -13.40%
Ireland -0.5 751 3048 -751 26172 -2.79%
Iceland -0.5 2218 3837 -2218 23954 -8.47%
Austria +0.5 3034 4064 4064 28018 16.96%
Slovakia -0.5 701 3443 -701 27317 -2.50%
Russia -0.5 2369 3909 -2369 24948 -8.67%
Northern Ireland +0.5 3300 8744 -3300 21648 -13.23%
Ukraine -0.5 2764 10229 -2764 18884 -12.77%
Croatia -0.5 1039 4570
Turkey +0.5 2880 2027