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Monthly Archives: November 2018

The Saints have a fairly tough schedule the rest of the way. We’ll see if they’ll be able to run the table, or if they’ll give the Rams a chance to get back on top of the NFC seed list.

The AFC may come down to the Chiefs ability to defend their house. The Chargers game is going to be must-see TV.

Team Market expected wins Pythag
Los Angeles Rams 13.89 0.7734
New Orleans Saints 13.32 0.7021
Kansas City Chiefs 12.59 0.6972
New England Patriots 11.81 0.7163
Houston Texans 10.96 0.5326
Los Angeles Chargers 10.66 0.6274
Chicago Bears 10.66 0.5987
Pittsburgh Steelers 10.44 0.6371
Minnesota Vikings 9.26 0.5932
Seattle Seahawks 8.94 0.5164
Baltimore Ravens 8.76 0.6147
Indianapolis Colts 8.51 0.4813
Carolina Panthers 8.40 0.5503
Dallas Cowboys 8.26 0.4557
Washington Redskins 8.05 0.4195
Tennessee Titans 7.85 0.4425
Denver Broncos 7.72 0.4905
Philadelphia Eagles 7.71 0.5820
Green Bay Packers 7.68 0.5696
Cincinnati Bengals 7.13 0.4275
Miami Dolphins 6.92 0.3066
Atlanta Falcons 6.58 0.5309
Cleveland Browns 6.34 0.3996
Detroit Lions 6.11 0.4299
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 5.88 0.4249
Buffalo Bills 5.81 0.2490
Jacksonville Jaguars 5.61 0.4737
New York Giants 5.22 0.4065
New York Jets 4.68 0.3350
San Francisco 49ers 3.69 0.3810
Oakland Raiders 3.32 0.3146
Arizona Cardinals 3.25 0.3077
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PFF is trusting in Tennessee:

Team Line Risked To Win Result
Titans 3.5 31922 29286 0
Ten-Hou O42.5 9309 8866 0

They remain in a pitched battle with the -$300K barrier:

Current Tab -$300,235.19
% of Bankroll -150.12%
Standard Dev 382379
Two-tailed Z -0.79

 

 

 

So much for PFF being less aggressive. That’s true in the aggregate, but no so much in these games. As of the time I am writing this I have no idea what happened in the early games. I’ll update for MNF.

Team Line Risked To Win Result
Chargers -14 980 1000 0
Chargers 0 5415 682 0
Ariz-SD o43 47519 44829 0
Dolphins 0 3478 12209 0
Dolphins 9 7173 6521 0
Mia-Ind O51.5 7553 6929 0
Steelers -3 23214 22321 0
Pit-Den O47.5 32752 33080 0

It’s become clear that PFF is marking their internal lines to market much more aggressively than they were at the start of the season. As such, it is increasingly unlikely that they’ll be able to turn out a positive result by the end of the season.

Current Tab -$297,672.48
% of Bankroll -148.84%
Standard Dev 373666
Two-tailed Z -0.80
Team Line Risked To Win Result
Sea-Car O46.5 2913 3000 0
Patriots 0 53935 9718 0
NE-NYJ U46.5 2199 2074 0
Jax-Buf o37 26721 27522 0
Jaguars 0 1931 1254 0
Bills 3 9948 9753 0
49ers 0 15461 17161 0
SF-TB U54.5 10398 9809 0
Raiders 13 7346 6678 0
Oak-Bal o42 3935 3975 0
NYG-Phi u49 7546 7256 0
Browns 0 10322 10120 0
Cle-Cin 0 13050 13181 0

 

 

 

 

Today’s games aren’t quite as competitive as we would have hoped at the start of the season. C’est la vie. That won’t stop Ed Feng and ESPN’s FPI from attempting to profit:

Ed Feng
Team Line Risked To Win Result
Penn St. 0 9443 36640 -9443
LSU 0 8974 42000 -8974
Texas Tech 0 9238 37970 -9238
Kentucky 0 5439 15500 -5439
Northwestern 0 12914 40420 -12914
Louisville 0 500 85000 -500
Louisville 39 51271 46974 -51271
Michigan St. 0 29436 45920 -29436
Alabama 0 3120 243 243
Boston College 0 5326 37870 -5326
Oklahoma St. 0 5077 55740 -5077
Notre Dame 0 29980 4422 4422
West Virginia 0 14286 20000 -14286
Washington 0 1895 2520 2520
Ohio St. 0 7307 14760 0
Georgia 0 51100 7147 0
South Carolina 0 6400 160000 0
Notre Dame 0 17600 4241 0
-144719

Ed’s hoping a South Carolina miracle will get him all the way back to par.

FPI  
Team Line Risked To Win Result
Oregon 0 4850 2771 -4850
Wisconsin 0 4617 15884 -4617
Michigan St. 0 4600 11960 -4600
Mississippi St. 0 13185 27821 -13185
Penn St. 0 15990 7614 7614
Stanford 0 11791 8245 -11791
Ohio St. -18 40633 36939 -40633
Texas Tech 13 17373 16390 16390
Army -6 28250 26651 -28250
Memphis -11 26839 26057 26057
West Virginia 0 6500 7800 7800
Georgia 0 24400 8133 8133
Penn St. 0 15013 57950 -15013
Northwestern 0 4469 13988 -4469
LSU 0 4848 22688 -4848
Louisville 0 216 36800 -216
Washington St. 0 17720 5212 5212
Michigan St. 0 1210 1888 -1210
Mississippi St. 0 2436 27400 -2436
Oklahoma St. 0 3222 35374 -3222
Georgia 0 19855 4094 4094
Notre Dame 0 29202 4307 4307
West Virginia 0 12229 17120 -12229
Washington 0 4523 6015 6015
Ohio St. 0 18370 37108 0
Georgia 0 25835 3613 0
Auburn 0 2293 32675 0
South Carolina 0 1824 45600 0
USC 0 2655 9745 0
-65947

FPI would love to see tOSU pull off the upset. We’ll know soon enough.

As far as I can tell, Ed has been having a pretty rough NCAAF season, although I should note I’ve only tracked the major games, and only for the last few weeks. Even so, it’s been pretty bad:

Ed Feng
Team Line Risked To Win Result
Penn St. 0 9443 36640 -9443
LSU 0 8974 42000 -8974
Texas Tech 0 9238 37970 -9238
Kentucky 0 5439 15500 -5439
Northwestern 0 12914 40420 -12914
Louisville 0 500 85000 -500
Louisville 39 51271 46974 -51271
Michigan St. 0 29436 45920 -29436
Alabama 0 3120 243 243
Boston College 0 5326 37870 -5326
Oklahoma St. 0 5077 55740 -5077
Notre Dame 0 29980 4422 4422
West Virginia 0 14286 20000 0
Washington 0 1895 2520 0
Net Result -132953

Even if we want to ignore the Louisville disaster, he’d still be down 81% of his bankroll. On that note, go West Virginia and Washington.

ESPN’s FPI has the same rooting interests:

Team Line Risked To Win Result
Oregon 0 4850 2771 -4850
Wisconsin 0 4617 15884 -4617
Michigan St. 0 4600 11960 -4600
Mississippi St. 0 13185 27821 -13185
Penn St. 0 15990 7614 7614
Stanford 0 11791 8245 -11791
Ohio St. -18 40633 36939 -40633
Texas Tech 13 17373 16390 16390
Army -6 28250 26651 -28250
Memphis -11 26839 26057 26057
West Virginia 0 6500 7800 7800
Georgia 0 24400 8133 8133
Penn St. 0 15013 57950 -15013
Northwestern 0 4469 13988 -4469
LSU 0 4848 22688 -4848
Louisville 0 216 36800 -216
Washington St. 0 17720 5212 5212
Michigan St. 0 1210 1888 -1210
Mississippi St. 0 2436 27400 -2436
Oklahoma St. 0 3222 35374 -3222
Georgia 0 19855 4094 4094
Notre Dame 0 29202 4307 4307
West Virginia 0 12229 17120 0
Washington 0 4523 6015 0
Net Result -59733

Collectively Ed Feng and the FPI have been fade-tastic. We’ll see if that continues tonight.