Women’s World Cup: The Quarterfinals

First, I want to do a bit of math. Imagine if 100 of y’all were to try and produce results this extreme (not this bad, specifically this extreme). There is a roughly one-in-six shot that one of you would succeed. It would take roughly 462 shots to have a 50% chance to produce a result this extreme. That’s what a two-tailed Z-score of 3.28 means.

As for the -406.25%, it speaks for itself. I was asked what the payoff on a parlay of Nate going 0-fer-8 in the round of 16 was. My best answer is 16.7-1. It was incredibly unlikely.

Nate is backing two favorites and two underdogs in the quarterfinals. The big play is on the Netherlands and 538’s numbers for Italy are quite off-market. 538 thinks England has a nice chance of advancing past Norway. They agree team USA should be favored over France, but isn’t all that optimistic. Finally, I’m pretty sure 538 doesn’t have a proper respect for Germany (even with their injuries), but we’ll have to wait and see.

England	Advance	17.85%	10.82%	0.00%
France	Advance	7.70%	10.86%	0.00%
Netherlands	Advance	44.35%	26.88%	0.00%
Sweden	Advance	8.10%	17.66%	0.00%

 

Women’s World Cup: Day 18

Nate is two losses away from pulling an 0-fer in the round of 16. That’s with him having backed a pair of favorites, along with four underdogs.

He’ll be backing Asia tomorrow. In fact, 538’s numbers have China favored over Italy. We’ll see how that goes.

His tab is -369.29%, which is not nice. The Z-Score is -3.08.

Japan	Advance	7.00%	14.00%	0.00%
China	Advance	29.96%	47.63%	0.00%

 

Women’s World Cup: Day 17: USA, USA, USA!

Brazil fought hard. Cameroon… let’s not talk about that match. Either way, Nate is now down -359.27%. That’s exactly three standard deviations in the red. Brutal.

Spain could cut the deficit a bit. More likely, Canada will provide a temporary stop to the bleeding.

Spain	Advance	6.37%	31.78%	0.00%
Canada	Advance	3.65%	2.70%	0.00%

 

Women’s World Cup: Day 16: Cameroon?

Nate is currently down -342.41%. The two-tailed Z-score is -2.87. If he loses both games tomorrow, he’ll be down -359.27, which would put his Z-Score at -3.00. That’s three standard deviations. Let’s hope Cameroon pulls off the miracle.

Brazil	Advance	6.99%	33.63%	0.00%
Cameroon	Advance	9.87%	163.55%	0.00%

 

Women’s World Cup: Day 15, Survive and Advance

Nate is currently down 323.52%. That’s “good” enough for a two-tailed Z-Score of -2.74. I need to stress that’s it’s tremendously difficult to produce results this far outside of a normal standard deviation.

He’ll be rooting for Australia to advance, while taking no opinion on the Germany game. (Update: Go Nigeria!)

Australia	Advance	16.70%	11.52%	0.00%
Nigeria	Advance	2.19%	29.21%	0.00%

Women’s World Cup: Day 14

The bets just get bigger and bigger. Nate has Thailand at 55% to get a result vs. Chile. The market thinks that happens less than 20% of the time. On the plus side, if Thailand pulls it off, much of Nate’s -245.68% debt will be paid off. We’ll see how that goes.

Canada	-0.5	3.94%	6.86%	0.00%
New Zealand	-0.5	10.59%	14.72%	0.00%
Sweden	0.5	18.78%	56.63%	0.00%
Thailand	0.5	44.54%	191.59%	0.00%

Women’s World Cup: Day 13

Brazil delivered a good day. Let’s see if Nate can keep it going:

Argentina	-0.5	7.75%	39.15%	0.00%
Japan	0.5	11.67%	17.50%	0.00%

The current tab is -226.26. (Update: This has been edited as I noticed a better option was available for Japan.)

 

 

Women’s World Cup: Day 12

Nate went 0-4 yesterday, bringing his deficit to -258.64%. His T-score is now -2.62. As expected, he’s backing Jamaica to get a result tomorrow. More interestingly, he’s backing Brazil to win. We’ll see how that goes.

Jamaica	0.5	6.24%	116.70%	0.00%
Brazil	-0.5	27.78%	38.62%	0.00%

 

Women’s World Cup: Day 11: Shoot your shot

If Nate ends up getting creamed this World Cup, he’ll go down swinging. If China wins, or South Africa or South Korea put up a result, he’ll have a positive day. Heck, he might snag a few big wins. We’ll just have to wait and see. The current tab is -212.11%

South Africa	0.5	5.91%	55.25%	0.00%
China	-0.5	12.86%	56.60%	0.00%
France-Nigeria	Draw	1.10%	8.03%	0.00%
South Korea	0.5	26.66%	53.66%	0.00%

 

Women’s World Cup: Day 10: Praying for a Miracle

This is disconcerting. It’s on thing to disagree with the market. It’s another to disagree by an order of magnitude:

Thailand	0.5	11.14%	520.75%	0.00%
Null	0	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

It’s clear that the issue is Nate’s Thailand rating. 538 has Thailand getting a result 13% of the time. The market has around 1.3%. Like Jamaica, Thailand simply doesn’t have a true national team. They have a club team supported by a local champion. Sweden has a true fully supported national team. Nate is effectively buying a lottery ticket.

In other news the deficit is now -200.97%. There is no play on the late game. Go USA!