Monthly Archives: June 2019

First, I want to do a bit of math. Imagine if 100 of y’all were to try and produce results this extreme (not this bad, specifically this extreme). There is a roughly one-in-six shot that one of you would succeed. It would take roughly 462 shots to have a 50% chance to produce a result this extreme. That’s what a two-tailed Z-score of 3.28 means.

two tails

As for the -406.25%, it speaks for itself. I was asked what the payoff on a parlay of Nate going 0-fer-8 in the round of 16 was. My best answer is 16.7-1. It was incredibly unlikely.

Nate is backing two favorites and two underdogs in the quarterfinals. The big play is on the Netherlands and 538’s numbers for Italy are quite off-market. 538 thinks England has a nice chance of advancing past Norway. They agree team USA should be favored over France, but isn’t all that optimistic. Finally, I’m pretty sure 538 doesn’t have a proper respect for Germany (even with their injuries), but we’ll have to wait and see.

England Advance 17.85% 10.82% 0.00%
France Advance 7.70% 10.86% 0.00%
Netherlands Advance 44.35% 26.88% 0.00%
Sweden Advance 8.10% 17.66% 0.00%


Nate is two losses away from pulling an 0-fer in the round of 16. That’s with him having backed a pair of favorites, along with four underdogs.

He’ll be backing Asia tomorrow. In fact, 538’s numbers have China favored over Italy. We’ll see how that goes.

His tab is -369.29%, which is not nice. The Z-Score is -3.08.

Japan Advance 7.00% 14.00% 0.00%
China Advance 29.96% 47.63% 0.00%


Brazil fought hard. Cameroon… let’s not talk about that match. Either way, Nate is now down -359.27%. That’s exactly three standard deviations in the red. Brutal.

Spain could cut the deficit a bit. More likely, Canada will provide a temporary stop to the bleeding.

Spain Advance 6.37% 31.78% 0.00%
Canada Advance 3.65% 2.70% 0.00%


Nate is currently down -342.41%. The two-tailed Z-score is -2.87. If he loses both games tomorrow, he’ll be down -359.27, which would put his Z-Score at -3.00. That’s three standard deviations. Let’s hope Cameroon pulls off the miracle.

Brazil Advance 6.99% 33.63% 0.00%
Cameroon Advance 9.87% 163.55% 0.00%


Nate is currently down 323.52%. That’s “good” enough for a two-tailed Z-Score of -2.74. I need to stress that’s it’s tremendously difficult to produce results this far outside of a normal standard deviation.

He’ll be rooting for Australia to advance, while taking no opinion on the Germany game. (Update: Go Nigeria!)

Australia Advance 16.70% 11.52% 0.00%
Nigeria Advance 2.19% 29.21% 0.00%

The bets just get bigger and bigger. Nate has Thailand at 55% to get a result vs. Chile. The market thinks that happens less than 20% of the time. On the plus side, if Thailand pulls it off, much of Nate’s -245.68% debt will be paid off. We’ll see how that goes.

Canada -0.5 3.94% 6.86% 0.00%
New Zealand -0.5 10.59% 14.72% 0.00%
Sweden 0.5 18.78% 56.63% 0.00%
Thailand 0.5 44.54% 191.59% 0.00%

Nate went 0-4 yesterday, bringing his deficit to -258.64%. His T-score is now -2.62. As expected, he’s backing Jamaica to get a result tomorrow. More interestingly, he’s backing Brazil to win. We’ll see how that goes.

Jamaica 0.5 6.24% 116.70% 0.00%
Brazil -0.5 27.78% 38.62% 0.00%


If Nate ends up getting creamed this World Cup, he’ll go down swinging. If China wins, or South Africa or South Korea put up a result, he’ll have a positive day. Heck, he might snag a few big wins. We’ll just have to wait and see. The current tab is -212.11%

South Africa 0.5 5.91% 55.25% 0.00%
China -0.5 12.86% 56.60% 0.00%
France-Nigeria Draw 1.10% 8.03% 0.00%
South Korea 0.5 26.66% 53.66% 0.00%


This is disconcerting. It’s on thing to disagree with the market. It’s another to disagree by an order of magnitude:

Thailand 0.5 11.14% 520.75% 0.00%
Null 0 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

It’s clear that the issue is Nate’s Thailand rating. 538 has Thailand getting a result 13% of the time. The market has around 1.3%. Like Jamaica, Thailand simply doesn’t have a true national team. They have a club team supported by a local champion. Sweden has a true fully supported national team. Nate is effectively buying a lottery ticket.

In other news the deficit is now -200.97%. There is no play on the late game. Go USA!