Archive

Monthly Archives: February 2017

Virginia and Baylor had been having a tough month, but both rebounded with solid home victories over strong competition last night. Virginia took the air out of the ball and stifled North Carolina. Baylor handled West Virginia’s press, and is now comfortably back on the 1-line.

Duke is going to try and right the ship against Florida State. Today we are all FSU fans.

In more important news, the Big South and Patriot league both kick off their conference tournaments tonight.

Full WAB’s available here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hof8DT8OCt_9A-f93NnXnSfMdp97B1qvmQ8Hw_X3X8Y/edit#gid=0

WAB Rank School WAB-AVG Pythag Pythag Rank
1 Kansas 10.46 0.9504 9
2 Villanova 8.98 0.9615 2
3 Baylor 7.62 0.9396 11
4 North Carolina 7.25 0.9593 3
5 Louisville 6.83 0.9568 6
6 Gonzaga 6.54 0.9697 1
7 Kentucky 6.48 0.9527 8
8 Florida 6.32 0.9579 4
9 Butler 6.25 0.9202 19
10 UCLA 6.13 0.9368 15
11 Arizona 5.74 0.9169 22
12 Oregon 5.69 0.9374 14
13 Florida St. 5.42 0.9268 17
14 Duke 5.15 0.9387 13
15 West Virginia 5.08 0.9578 5
16 Notre Dame 4.80 0.9073 25
17 Virginia 4.62 0.9529 7
18 Purdue 4.61 0.9393 12
19 Wisconsin 4.51 0.9175 21
20 SMU 4.31 0.9285 16
21 Cincinnati 4.07 0.9162 24
22 Oklahoma St. 4.06 0.9184 20
23 Iowa St. 3.73 0.9166 23
24 Saint Mary’s 3.53 0.9259 18
25 Virginia Tech 3.44 0.8381 45
26 Creighton 3.38 0.8994 26
27 Minnesota 3.35 0.8734 30
28 Maryland 3.32 0.8393 43
29 Wichita St. 2.95 0.9411 10
30 Miami FL 2.70 0.8862 28
31 Arkansas 2.68 0.8392 44
32 South Carolina 2.35 0.8809 29
33 Dayton 2.20 0.8677 31
34 VCU 1.59 0.8351 48
35 Xavier 1.52 0.8473 38
36 Illinois St. 1.47 0.8253 50
37 Northwestern 1.45 0.8481 37
38 Middle Tennessee 1.36 0.8190 53
39 Michigan St. 1.32 0.8408 41
40 Michigan 1.24 0.8942 27
41 USC 1.24 0.7800 65
42 Seton Hall 1.06 0.8053 56
43 Monmouth 0.93 0.7186 82
44 UNC Wilmington 0.77 0.7723 68
45 Vermont 0.42 0.7553 72
46 Providence 0.37 0.8160 54
47 TCU 0.23 0.8380 46
48 Kansas St. 0.05 0.8500 36
49 UT Arlington -0.05 0.7487 74
50 Nevada -0.06 0.7910 61
51 Wake Forest -0.08 0.8601 33
52 Belmont -0.15 0.7147 84
53 Marquette -0.23 0.8637 32
54 Georgia -0.32 0.8195 52
55 California -0.43 0.8395 42
56 Houston -0.56 0.8456 39
57 Texas Tech -0.66 0.8577 35
58 Akron -0.74 0.6659 102
59 Syracuse -0.85 0.8347 49
60 Princeton -0.90 0.7760 67
61 Illinois -0.94 0.7957 59
62 Clemson -0.97 0.8587 34
63 Rhode Island -0.98 0.8252 51
64 Mississippi -1.12 0.7472 75
65 Valparaiso -1.23 0.6749 100
66 Georgia Tech -1.40 0.7317 78
67 Vanderbilt -1.45 0.8378 47
68 Pittsburgh -1.53 0.7768 66
69 Auburn -1.53 0.7230 81
70 New Mexico St. -1.55 0.6472 105
71 East Tennessee St. -1.62 0.7468 76
72 Indiana -1.68 0.8440 40
73 Winthrop -1.70 0.6259 116
74 Tennessee -1.75 0.8018 57
75 Florida Gulf Coast -1.76 0.6273 115
76 UCF -1.96 0.7539 73
77 College of Charleston -1.99 0.6783 97
78 Ohio St. -2.14 0.7899 63
79 Utah -2.16 0.8133 55
80 Iowa -2.31 0.7665 70
81 Boise St. -2.43 0.6809 95
82 UNC Greensboro -2.44 0.5692 131
83 Alabama -2.45 0.7902 62
84 Cal St. Bakersfield -2.49 0.6361 112
85 UNC Asheville -2.56 0.6564 103
86 BYU -2.58 0.7676 69
87 Bucknell -2.66 0.7132 85
88 Oakland -2.72 0.6466 106
89 Texas A&M -2.76 0.7829 64
90 Colorado St. -3.07 0.6879 92
91 Harvard -3.11 0.6430 109
92 Memphis -3.12 0.7110 86
93 Georgetown -3.25 0.8015 58
94 Arkansas St. -3.32 0.6000 118
95 North Carolina St. -3.34 0.6775 98
96 Stanford -3.49 0.6861 93
97 Penn St. -3.59 0.7390 77
98 Richmond -3.71 0.6931 91
99 St. Bonaventure -3.74 0.7056 89
100 San Francisco -3.88 0.6473 104
101 Grand Canyon -4.09 0.4673 181
102 Nebraska -4.11 0.7047 90
103 Colorado -4.13 0.7294 79
104 Louisiana Tech -4.18 0.6825 94
105 Old Dominion -4.36 0.6332 114
106 Furman -4.37 0.6387 110
107 North Carolina Central -4.44 0.4774 180
108 Eastern Washington -4.46 0.4843 175
109 George Mason -4.49 0.6377 111
110 Connecticut -4.56 0.7250 80
111 Texas Southern -4.58 0.4164 205
112 St. John’s -4.59 0.7069 88
113 Oklahoma -4.64 0.7936 60
114 Fresno St. -4.68 0.6457 107
115 Ohio -4.69 0.6717 101
116 Yale -4.77 0.5246 154
117 South Dakota -4.87 0.5444 141
118 North Dakota -4.93 0.4986 166
119 Rice -4.95 0.5433 143
120 George Washington -5.12 0.5970 120
121 Chattanooga -5.14 0.5963 121
122 North Dakota St. -5.17 0.5329 151
123 Temple -5.19 0.6452 108
124 Northern Kentucky -5.19 0.5108 159
125 Mississippi St. -5.23 0.6764 99
126 Davidson -5.25 0.7078 87
127 Texas A&M Corpus Chris -5.31 0.3836 213
128 Georgia St. -5.45 0.5901 123
129 Tulsa -5.51 0.5768 130
130 New Mexico -5.53 0.5871 124
131 La Salle -5.57 0.5903 122
132 Texas -5.58 0.7628 71
133 San Diego St. -5.60 0.7178 83
134 Rutgers -5.65 0.5981 119
135 Arizona St. -5.85 0.5810 126
136 New Orleans -6.02 0.4266 196
137 Fort Wayne -6.06 0.5684 132
138 Tennessee Martin -6.08 0.3971 212
139 Wright St. -6.08 0.5107 161
140 Louisiana Lafayette -6.10 0.5552 138
141 Towson -6.11 0.5813 125
142 New Hampshire -6.20 0.4956 169
143 Lehigh -6.30 0.6151 117
144 Wyoming -6.48 0.5399 146
145 Northern Iowa -6.50 0.4890 173
146 Tennessee St. -6.51 0.4941 171
147 William & Mary -6.55 0.5601 134
148 Washington St. -6.56 0.4444 190
149 Iona -6.57 0.5595 135
150 Ball St. -6.69 0.4832 178
151 Loyola Marymount -6.70 0.4954 170
152 Georgia Southern -6.73 0.5104 162
153 Loyola Chicago -6.80 0.6794 96
154 Albany -6.80 0.5487 140
155 Nebraska Omaha -6.86 0.4484 188
156 Marshall -6.88 0.5149 155
157 Green Bay -6.92 0.4898 172
158 UMBC -6.97 0.4423 192
159 Saint Peter’s -7.07 0.6359 113
160 Sam Houston St. -7.11 0.3392 233
161 Elon -7.14 0.5538 139
162 Lipscomb -7.14 0.5374 148
163 UC Irvine -7.20 0.5390 147
164 Kent St. -7.25 0.5281 153
165 Liberty -7.26 0.4074 207
166 Santa Clara -7.30 0.5785 128
167 Houston Baptist -7.30 0.3462 227
168 Southern Illinois -7.34 0.5145 156
169 Weber St. -7.37 0.4835 177
170 Alcorn St. -7.41 0.2143 294
171 San Jose St. -7.41 0.4260 197
172 Texas St. -7.42 0.4295 194
173 Penn -7.46 0.5295 152
174 UC Davis -7.56 0.3835 214
175 Stony Brook -7.64 0.4057 208
176 Gardner Webb -7.68 0.4433 191
177 LIU Brooklyn -7.87 0.3091 249
178 UAB -7.95 0.4842 176
179 Buffalo -8.01 0.5797 127
180 LSU -8.05 0.4963 168
181 Stephen F. Austin -8.05 0.3218 246
182 Boston University -8.18 0.4445 189
183 Massachusetts -8.24 0.5556 137
184 Mount St. Mary’s -8.24 0.3756 220
185 Samford -8.34 0.4661 182
186 Utah St. -8.38 0.5587 136
187 Central Michigan -8.41 0.4036 209
188 Northeastern -8.42 0.5406 145
189 Toledo -8.50 0.5776 129
190 Fairfield -8.55 0.3998 211
191 East Carolina -8.60 0.4239 200
192 Denver -8.64 0.4572 186
193 Missouri St. -8.66 0.5673 133
194 Canisius -8.71 0.4633 183
195 Evansville -8.71 0.5080 164
196 Western Michigan -8.72 0.5101 163
197 Idaho -8.84 0.3604 222
198 Jacksonville St. -8.90 0.4254 198
199 Boston College -9.01 0.5424 144
200 Coastal Carolina -9.02 0.4217 203
201 Eastern Michigan -9.04 0.5372 149
202 Troy -9.10 0.4983 167
203 UMKC -9.18 0.3556 224
204 Charlotte -9.31 0.3223 245
205 Fordham -9.31 0.4611 185
206 San Diego -9.38 0.3002 253
207 Rider -9.54 0.4088 206
208 DePaul -9.54 0.4990 165
209 Columbia -9.56 0.3809 216
210 Wofford -9.56 0.5140 157
211 Hawaii -9.58 0.3443 229
212 Morehead St. -9.59 0.4316 193
213 Mercer -9.61 0.5437 142
214 Siena -9.67 0.4788 179
215 Northern Illinois -9.74 0.4253 199
216 Saint Joseph’s -9.85 0.5121 158
217 Washington -9.88 0.5108 160
218 Wagner -9.93 0.3347 237
219 Utah Valley -10.00 0.4235 202
220 Portland St. -10.07 0.3360 235
221 Loyola MD -10.11 0.2996 255
222 Hofstra -10.20 0.4861 174
223 Long Beach St. -10.25 0.3394 232
224 Holy Cross -10.30 0.3705 221
225 Western Kentucky -10.39 0.3451 228
226 Lamar -10.40 0.3290 242
227 Montana -10.40 0.4239 201
228 Norfolk St. -10.42 0.1895 305
229 South Dakota St. -10.45 0.4533 187
230 Nicholls St. -10.51 0.1649 316
231 USC Upstate -10.59 0.3359 236
232 Montana St. -10.59 0.3345 238
233 Cal St. Fullerton -10.60 0.2518 276
234 High Point -10.65 0.3056 251
235 Little Rock -10.66 0.3224 244
236 UTEP -10.71 0.4002 210
237 IUPUI -10.75 0.4203 204
238 Bowling Green -10.77 0.3441 230
239 Navy -10.80 0.3833 215
240 Seattle -10.86 0.2621 273
241 Brown -10.99 0.2661 268
242 Radford -11.00 0.2194 290
243 Abilene Christian -11.06 0.2036 302
244 Morgan St. -11.23 0.1408 328
245 Indiana St. -11.25 0.4633 184
246 Savannah St. -11.28 0.1585 321
247 Bradley -11.36 0.3780 217
248 St. Francis PA -11.37 0.2833 262
249 South Alabama -11.39 0.3378 234
250 Missouri -11.40 0.5349 150
251 South Carolina St. -11.54 0.0992 337
252 Saint Louis -11.55 0.2486 277
253 Southeastern Louisiana -11.57 0.3112 247
254 Murray St. -11.61 0.4289 195
255 Eastern Illinois -11.67 0.3580 223
256 Cal St. Northridge -11.72 0.2960 257
257 Southern -11.79 0.1632 317
258 North Florida -11.87 0.3001 254
259 Hampton -11.87 0.1723 313
260 UNLV -11.89 0.2968 256
261 Jacksonville -11.91 0.2594 275
262 Duquesne -12.13 0.3778 218
263 Campbell -12.47 0.2077 299
264 Kennesaw St. -12.52 0.2938 258
265 Sacramento St. -12.52 0.2186 291
266 Southeast Missouri St. -12.53 0.3402 231
267 Northwestern St. -12.58 0.1821 308
268 UTSA -12.62 0.2423 280
269 Incarnate Word -12.66 0.1735 312
270 Illinois Chicago -12.70 0.3097 248
271 Air Force -12.75 0.3777 219
272 Florida Atlantic -12.81 0.2912 260
273 Grambling St. -12.81 0.1083 335
274 Pacific -12.85 0.3507 225
275 Robert Morris -12.90 0.2632 270
276 South Florida -12.91 0.2230 288
277 Northern Colorado -12.97 0.2393 282
278 Portland -13.16 0.2625 271
279 Charleston Southern -13.17 0.2112 296
280 Army -13.25 0.3091 250
281 Pepperdine -13.27 0.2183 292
282 Prairie View A&M -13.30 0.1606 320
283 Fairleigh Dickinson -13.37 0.2757 265
284 Delaware -13.38 0.1985 304
285 Eastern Kentucky -13.43 0.2646 269
286 Maryland Eastern Shore -13.52 0.1619 319
287 Jackson St. -13.60 0.1462 324
288 Cal Poly -13.62 0.2206 289
289 Tennessee Tech -13.89 0.3035 252
290 Austin Peay -13.91 0.2338 285
291 Bryant -14.10 0.2605 274
292 The Citadel -14.13 0.2072 300
293 Cornell -14.22 0.2766 264
294 Appalachian St. -14.28 0.2751 266
295 Western Illinois -14.45 0.2133 295
296 Tulane -14.46 0.3323 240
297 Sacred Heart -14.54 0.2030 303
298 NJIT -14.66 0.2486 278
299 Western Carolina -14.69 0.1421 327
300 Binghamton -14.70 0.1815 309
301 Cleveland St. -14.71 0.3315 241
302 Miami OH -14.72 0.2284 287
303 Dartmouth -14.79 0.2090 297
304 Quinnipiac -14.80 0.2402 281
305 Manhattan -14.97 0.2337 286
306 Oral Roberts -14.97 0.3338 239
307 Youngstown St. -14.99 0.2058 301
308 UC Riverside -15.13 0.1894 306
309 Lafayette -15.31 0.1335 330
310 Southern Miss -15.37 0.1556 322
311 McNeese St. -15.62 0.1432 325
312 Oregon St. -15.69 0.2790 263
313 Louisiana Monroe -15.74 0.2882 261
314 UT Rio Grande Valley -15.74 0.1856 307
315 UMass Lowell -15.75 0.2364 284
316 American -15.82 0.2087 298
317 Colgate -15.85 0.2624 272
318 North Texas -15.93 0.1664 315
319 UC Santa Barbara -15.95 0.1256 332
320 Central Arkansas -16.07 0.1769 311
321 Detroit -16.17 0.2462 279
322 Drake -16.23 0.2927 259
323 James Madison -16.39 0.3498 226
324 Drexel -16.42 0.3253 243
325 Howard -16.46 0.0959 338
326 Stetson -16.56 0.1625 318
327 Delaware St. -16.60 0.0996 336
328 VMI -16.72 0.1494 323
329 Alabama St. -16.73 0.0833 342
330 Coppin St. -17.03 0.0715 344
331 Marist -17.32 0.1814 310
332 Niagara -17.41 0.2708 267
333 Milwaukee -17.42 0.2369 283
334 Mississippi Valley St. -17.53 0.0732 343
335 Chicago St. -17.56 0.0882 340
336 Idaho St. -17.61 0.1421 326
337 Hartford -17.71 0.1212 333
338 Northern Arizona -17.73 0.1373 329
339 Bethune Cookman -18.18 0.0862 341
340 Maine -18.46 0.1134 334
341 Longwood -18.53 0.0621 347
342 Florida A&M -18.54 0.0693 345
343 FIU -18.89 0.2149 293
344 SIU Edwardsville -19.25 0.1667 314
345 Presbyterian -19.70 0.0434 349
346 Central Connecticut -19.79 0.0915 339
347 Arkansas Pine Bluff -20.32 0.0526 348
348 Southern Utah -20.46 0.1283 331
349 Alabama A&M -22.15 0.0347 351
350 St. Francis NY -22.80 0.0638 346
351 North Carolina A&T -24.56 0.0426 350

The Atlantic Sun kicks things off. Florida Gulf Coast will be looking to the run the table on their home court, with Lipscomb being their biggest threat.

In other news Wisconsin is continuing their late season fade, while Michigan State has worked their way up.

Tonight Baylor will have a chance to grab a huge win against West Virginia. If they do, they’ll give themselves a great shot of finishing on the 1-line. If not, it looks like a free-for-all between Louisville, Gonzaga, Kentucky, and Florida. Sorry Butler, but that’s just too much ground to make up. North Carolina can pretty much lock up a 1-seed if they beat Virginia tonight and Duke on Saturday. They are rounding into a very dangerous team.

Full WAB’s available here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hof8DT8OCt_9A-f93NnXnSfMdp97B1qvmQ8Hw_X3X8Y/edit#gid=0

WAB Rank School WAB-AVG Pythag Pythag Rank
1 Kansas 10.19 0.9512 8
2 Villanova 8.99 0.9616 3
3 North Carolina 7.42 0.9618 2
4 Baylor 6.93 0.9367 15
5 Louisville 6.84 0.9571 6
6 Gonzaga 6.56 0.9699 1
7 Kentucky 6.52 0.9532 7
8 Florida 6.35 0.9581 5
9 Butler 6.27 0.9202 19
10 UCLA 6.14 0.9369 14
11 Arizona 5.75 0.9170 22
12 Oregon 5.70 0.9374 13
13 Florida St. 5.45 0.9273 17
14 West Virginia 5.23 0.9601 4
15 Duke 5.20 0.9391 12
16 Notre Dame 4.82 0.9078 25
17 Purdue 4.65 0.9400 11
18 Wisconsin 4.55 0.9177 21
19 SMU 4.33 0.9288 16
20 Cincinnati 4.08 0.9162 24
21 Oklahoma St. 4.08 0.9188 20
22 Virginia 3.93 0.9504 9
23 Iowa St. 3.75 0.9168 23
24 Saint Mary’s 3.54 0.9261 18
25 Creighton 3.40 0.8998 26
26 Minnesota 3.37 0.8738 30
27 Maryland 3.34 0.8395 44
28 Virginia Tech 3.11 0.8350 49
29 Miami FL 3.10 0.8895 28
30 Wichita St. 2.97 0.9413 10
31 Arkansas 2.71 0.8403 42
32 South Carolina 2.39 0.8816 29
33 Dayton 2.23 0.8686 31
34 VCU 1.60 0.8353 48
35 Xavier 1.54 0.8478 38
36 Illinois St. 1.49 0.8258 50
37 Northwestern 1.47 0.8487 37
38 Middle Tennessee 1.41 0.8207 52
39 Michigan St. 1.33 0.8411 41
40 Michigan 1.26 0.8947 27
41 USC 1.26 0.7805 65
42 Seton Hall 1.08 0.8060 56
43 Monmouth 0.95 0.7198 82
44 UNC Wilmington 0.80 0.7735 68
45 Vermont 0.44 0.7562 73
46 Providence 0.38 0.8166 54
47 TCU 0.25 0.8389 46
48 Wake Forest 0.09 0.8608 33
49 Kansas St. 0.07 0.8505 36
50 Nevada -0.04 0.7918 61
51 UT Arlington -0.12 0.7464 76
52 Belmont -0.16 0.7151 84
53 Marquette -0.21 0.8642 32
54 Georgia -0.29 0.8201 53
55 California -0.42 0.8398 43
56 Houston -0.55 0.8459 39
57 Texas Tech -0.64 0.8584 35
58 Akron -0.71 0.6674 102
59 Syracuse -0.83 0.8355 47
60 East Tennessee St. -0.87 0.7579 72
61 Princeton -0.89 0.7764 67
62 Illinois -0.91 0.7967 59
63 Clemson -0.95 0.8592 34
64 Rhode Island -0.96 0.8256 51
65 Mississippi -1.10 0.7484 75
66 Valparaiso -1.20 0.6756 100
67 Georgia Tech -1.37 0.7330 78
68 Vanderbilt -1.40 0.8393 45
69 Auburn -1.49 0.7249 81
70 Pittsburgh -1.49 0.7784 66
71 New Mexico St. -1.53 0.6486 104
72 Indiana -1.65 0.8448 40
73 Tennessee -1.68 0.8036 57
74 Winthrop -1.69 0.6267 115
75 Florida Gulf Coast -1.78 0.6179 117
76 UCF -1.94 0.7550 74
77 College of Charleston -1.97 0.6790 99
78 Ohio St. -2.13 0.7905 63
79 Utah -2.15 0.8129 55
80 Iowa -2.29 0.7669 70
81 Boise St. -2.40 0.6822 95
82 Alabama -2.42 0.7914 62
83 Cal St. Bakersfield -2.48 0.6368 112
84 UNC Asheville -2.54 0.6571 103
85 BYU -2.56 0.7685 69
86 UNC Greensboro -2.64 0.5597 136
87 Bucknell -2.65 0.7136 85
88 Oakland -2.70 0.6484 106
89 Texas A&M -2.73 0.7840 64
90 Colorado St. -3.05 0.6892 92
91 Harvard -3.10 0.6438 109
92 Memphis -3.11 0.7117 86
93 Georgetown -3.24 0.8011 58
94 North Carolina St. -3.30 0.6801 97
95 Arkansas St. -3.44 0.5912 122
96 North Carolina Central -3.45 0.5007 166
97 Stanford -3.47 0.6872 93
98 Penn St. -3.56 0.7400 77
99 Richmond -3.68 0.6943 91
100 St. Bonaventure -3.72 0.7070 89
101 San Francisco -3.86 0.6485 105
102 Grand Canyon -4.08 0.4681 182
103 Nebraska -4.09 0.7057 90
104 Colorado -4.11 0.7303 79
105 Louisiana Tech -4.18 0.6834 94
106 Chattanooga -4.19 0.6223 116
107 Furman -4.31 0.6409 110
108 Old Dominion -4.33 0.6348 114
109 Eastern Washington -4.44 0.4855 177
110 Oklahoma -4.48 0.7920 60
111 George Mason -4.48 0.6381 111
112 Connecticut -4.54 0.7260 80
113 St. John’s -4.57 0.7078 88
114 Texas Southern -4.61 0.4220 203
115 Fresno St. -4.66 0.6466 108
116 Ohio -4.67 0.6733 101
117 Yale -4.73 0.5253 153
118 Georgia St. -4.74 0.6053 119
119 South Dakota -4.85 0.5454 140
120 North Dakota -4.92 0.4997 168
121 Rice -4.93 0.5454 141
122 George Washington -5.09 0.5991 121
123 Northern Kentucky -5.16 0.5131 161
124 Temple -5.16 0.6469 107
125 North Dakota St. -5.17 0.5332 150
126 Mississippi St. -5.18 0.6795 98
127 Davidson -5.22 0.7091 87
128 Texas A&M Corpus Chris -5.32 0.3834 215
129 Tulsa -5.50 0.5771 130
130 New Mexico -5.51 0.5886 124
131 Texas -5.55 0.7641 71
132 La Salle -5.56 0.5911 123
133 San Diego St. -5.58 0.7196 83
134 Rutgers -5.62 0.5992 120
135 Arizona St. -5.84 0.5815 126
136 Georgia Southern -5.86 0.5186 155
137 New Orleans -6.02 0.4269 197
138 Wright St. -6.04 0.5133 160
139 Fort Wayne -6.05 0.5696 131
140 Tennessee Martin -6.07 0.3981 212
141 Towson -6.09 0.5823 125
142 New Hampshire -6.18 0.4975 170
143 Louisiana Lafayette -6.19 0.5419 143
144 Lehigh -6.29 0.6154 118
145 Wyoming -6.46 0.5411 144
146 Northern Iowa -6.47 0.4911 174
147 Tennessee St. -6.51 0.4945 172
148 William & Mary -6.53 0.5603 134
149 Washington St. -6.54 0.4454 190
150 Iona -6.56 0.5610 133
151 Ball St. -6.67 0.4851 178
152 Loyola Marymount -6.68 0.4965 171
153 Loyola Chicago -6.77 0.6805 96
154 Albany -6.78 0.5502 139
155 Marshall -6.83 0.5167 156
156 Nebraska Omaha -6.84 0.4495 188
157 Green Bay -6.90 0.4913 173
158 UMBC -6.96 0.4430 192
159 Saint Peter’s -7.07 0.6361 113
160 Sam Houston St. -7.11 0.3392 235
161 Elon -7.12 0.5545 138
162 Lipscomb -7.16 0.5217 154
163 UC Irvine -7.17 0.5406 145
164 Kent St. -7.22 0.5303 152
165 Liberty -7.26 0.4077 206
166 Santa Clara -7.29 0.5790 129
167 Houston Baptist -7.29 0.3463 229
168 Southern Illinois -7.32 0.5159 158
169 Weber St. -7.35 0.4847 179
170 San Jose St. -7.39 0.4272 195
171 Alcorn St. -7.40 0.2151 294
172 Texas St. -7.44 0.4062 208
173 Penn -7.44 0.5303 151
174 UC Davis -7.55 0.3852 213
175 Samford -7.55 0.4762 181
176 Stony Brook -7.63 0.4072 207
177 Gardner Webb -7.66 0.4436 191
178 LIU Brooklyn -7.85 0.3101 249
179 UAB -7.92 0.4857 176
180 Buffalo -7.98 0.5811 127
181 LSU -8.01 0.4994 169
182 Stephen F. Austin -8.05 0.3226 245
183 Boston University -8.16 0.4459 189
184 Massachusetts -8.21 0.5569 137
185 Mount St. Mary’s -8.23 0.3768 220
186 Utah St. -8.35 0.5603 135
187 Central Michigan -8.39 0.4043 209
188 Northeastern -8.39 0.5405 146
189 Toledo -8.47 0.5794 128
190 Fairfield -8.54 0.4008 211
191 Troy -8.58 0.5072 165
192 East Carolina -8.59 0.4251 199
193 Denver -8.61 0.4588 186
194 Missouri St. -8.63 0.5684 132
195 Evansville -8.69 0.5093 164
196 Canisius -8.69 0.4644 184
197 Western Michigan -8.70 0.5112 163
198 Idaho -8.83 0.3613 223
199 Jacksonville St. -8.85 0.4271 196
200 Boston College -8.99 0.5438 142
201 Eastern Michigan -9.02 0.5386 148
202 Coastal Carolina -9.03 0.4241 202
203 UMKC -9.16 0.3570 225
204 Charlotte -9.29 0.3237 244
205 Fordham -9.29 0.4622 185
206 San Diego -9.36 0.3013 254
207 Norfolk St. -9.47 0.1929 305
208 Wofford -9.49 0.5159 157
209 DePaul -9.53 0.5001 167
210 Rider -9.53 0.4091 205
211 Columbia -9.54 0.3819 216
212 Hawaii -9.56 0.3455 231
213 Morehead St. -9.59 0.4326 193
214 Mercer -9.63 0.5393 147
215 USC Upstate -9.65 0.3446 232
216 Siena -9.66 0.4794 180
217 Northern Illinois -9.72 0.4265 198
218 Saint Joseph’s -9.83 0.5135 159
219 Wagner -9.89 0.3350 237
220 Utah Valley -9.99 0.4247 201
221 Washington -10.01 0.5117 162
222 Portland St. -10.06 0.3370 236
223 Loyola MD -10.10 0.3004 255
224 Hofstra -10.19 0.4872 175
225 Long Beach St. -10.24 0.3404 234
226 Holy Cross -10.29 0.3719 221
227 Western Kentucky -10.36 0.3475 228
228 Montana -10.39 0.4250 200
229 Lamar -10.40 0.3283 242
230 South Dakota St. -10.42 0.4548 187
231 Nicholls St. -10.51 0.1652 318
232 South Alabama -10.56 0.3614 222
233 Cal St. Fullerton -10.58 0.2531 277
234 Montana St. -10.59 0.3350 238
235 High Point -10.66 0.3061 251
236 UTEP -10.69 0.4020 210
237 IUPUI -10.73 0.4216 204
238 Bowling Green -10.75 0.3457 230
239 Little Rock -10.77 0.3181 246
240 Navy -10.80 0.3836 214
241 Seattle -10.85 0.2634 273
242 Brown -10.97 0.2671 268
243 Radford -10.97 0.2207 290
244 Jacksonville -11.03 0.2604 276
245 Abilene Christian -11.06 0.2040 301
246 Morgan St. -11.23 0.1431 326
247 Indiana St. -11.23 0.4647 183
248 Bradley -11.34 0.3786 219
249 St. Francis PA -11.35 0.2849 263
250 Missouri -11.36 0.5365 149
251 Savannah St. -11.49 0.1472 322
252 South Carolina St. -11.50 0.0995 337
253 Saint Louis -11.52 0.2493 278
254 Southeastern Louisiana -11.56 0.3119 247
255 Murray St. -11.59 0.4299 194
256 Eastern Illinois -11.65 0.3606 224
257 Cal St. Northridge -11.70 0.2970 257
258 Southern -11.79 0.1637 319
259 Grambling St. -11.84 0.1108 335
260 UNLV -11.86 0.2992 256
261 Hampton -11.88 0.1724 313
262 North Florida -11.90 0.3016 253
263 Duquesne -12.11 0.3787 218
264 Campbell -12.45 0.2084 299
265 Sacramento St. -12.51 0.2197 291
266 Southeast Missouri St. -12.52 0.3417 233
267 Maryland Eastern Shore -12.53 0.1718 314
268 Northwestern St. -12.57 0.1824 308
269 UTSA -12.61 0.2424 280
270 Incarnate Word -12.65 0.1734 312
271 Kennesaw St. -12.66 0.2882 262
272 Illinois Chicago -12.69 0.3112 248
273 Air Force -12.73 0.3795 217
274 Florida Atlantic -12.81 0.2921 259
275 Pacific -12.84 0.3516 226
276 South Florida -12.89 0.2238 288
277 Robert Morris -12.90 0.2638 272
278 Northern Colorado -12.96 0.2397 282
279 Portland -13.14 0.2630 274
280 Charleston Southern -13.16 0.2121 296
281 Army -13.24 0.3099 250
282 Pepperdine -13.27 0.2190 292
283 Prairie View A&M -13.34 0.1461 323
284 Delaware -13.36 0.1992 303
285 Fairleigh Dickinson -13.37 0.2758 266
286 Appalachian St. -13.38 0.2895 260
287 Eastern Kentucky -13.40 0.2657 269
288 Jackson St. -13.60 0.1409 327
289 Cal Poly -13.61 0.2213 289
290 Tennessee Tech -13.89 0.3035 252
291 Austin Peay -13.89 0.2347 285
292 NJIT -13.94 0.2649 270
293 Bryant -14.09 0.2612 275
294 Cornell -14.21 0.2771 265
295 The Citadel -14.22 0.1929 304
296 Western Illinois -14.40 0.2143 295
297 Tulane -14.44 0.3327 240
298 Sacred Heart -14.53 0.2036 302
299 Western Carolina -14.62 0.1364 329
300 Miami OH -14.69 0.2297 287
301 Binghamton -14.69 0.1823 309
302 Cleveland St. -14.70 0.3327 241
303 Quinnipiac -14.78 0.2405 281
304 Dartmouth -14.78 0.2098 297
305 Louisiana Monroe -14.90 0.2894 261
306 Manhattan -14.95 0.2346 286
307 Youngstown St. -14.95 0.2069 300
308 Oral Roberts -14.96 0.3346 239
309 UC Riverside -15.12 0.1904 306
310 Lafayette -15.30 0.1340 330
311 Southern Miss -15.34 0.1564 321
312 McNeese St. -15.63 0.1433 324
313 Oregon St. -15.68 0.2782 264
314 UMass Lowell -15.73 0.2379 284
315 Alabama St. -15.74 0.0909 340
316 UT Rio Grande Valley -15.74 0.1860 307
317 VMI -15.78 0.1590 320
318 American -15.81 0.2094 298
319 Colgate -15.83 0.2640 271
320 North Texas -15.91 0.1672 316
321 Stetson -15.93 0.1710 315
322 UC Santa Barbara -15.93 0.1263 332
323 Central Arkansas -16.05 0.1775 311
324 Coppin St. -16.07 0.0715 343
325 Detroit -16.13 0.2473 279
326 Drake -16.22 0.2931 258
327 James Madison -16.37 0.3509 227
328 Drexel -16.40 0.3261 243
329 Howard -16.44 0.0916 339
330 Delaware St. -16.58 0.0998 336
331 Marist -17.30 0.1821 310
332 Milwaukee -17.38 0.2385 283
333 Niagara -17.40 0.2713 267
334 Mississippi Valley St. -17.53 0.0708 344
335 Chicago St. -17.54 0.0887 341
336 Idaho St. -17.59 0.1431 325
337 Hartford -17.69 0.1218 333
338 Northern Arizona -17.71 0.1380 328
339 Bethune Cookman -18.16 0.0863 342
340 Maine -18.45 0.1140 334
341 Florida A&M -18.51 0.0695 345
342 Longwood -18.52 0.0623 347
343 FIU -18.87 0.2161 293
344 SIU Edwardsville -19.26 0.1669 317
345 Arkansas Pine Bluff -19.33 0.0552 348
346 Presbyterian -19.70 0.0436 349
347 Central Connecticut -19.78 0.0918 338
348 Southern Utah -20.45 0.1288 331
349 Alabama A&M -21.20 0.0340 351
350 St. Francis NY -22.80 0.0639 346
351 North Carolina A&T -23.55 0.0428 350

I’m just running the KenPom WAB’s today. Kansas is well clear of the field, with Villanova the solid #2. North Carolina has moved into third. The real question is who is #4? Baylor has been fading, and Gonzaga just took a huge hit. Could Kentucky or Florida sneak in? It’s hard to tell, and it should make for a fun championship week.

In other news, Clemson stayed true to themselves. Miami knocked off Duke, who is sliding back. They have two tough games remaining (Florida State, at North Carolina), so they may find themselves slipping down into the 4-5 line.

Today we’ll see if Syracuse can pull off the miracle at Louisville. Butler and Xavier face off in a tough Big East clash. The most interesting game of the day might be Wisconsin at Michigan State. Can the Badgers right the ship? We’ll know later today.

WAB Rank School WAB Bubble Percentile Pythag
1 Kansas 9.94 100.00% 0.945
2 Villanova 8.70 99.99% 0.958
3 North Carolina 7.03 99.90% 0.9537
4 Baylor 6.57 99.82% 0.9407
5 Gonzaga 6.45 99.98% 0.9734
6 Kentucky 6.29 99.78% 0.9528
7 Florida 6.22 99.66% 0.9565
8 Louisville 6.16 99.73% 0.9552
9 UCLA 5.86 99.82% 0.9217
10 Oregon 5.49 99.42% 0.9278
11 Arizona 5.48 99.55% 0.9117
12 Butler 5.32 98.95% 0.912
13 Florida St. 5.04 98.95% 0.9233
14 West Virginia 4.99 98.96% 0.9577
15 Duke 4.86 98.74% 0.9274
16 Wisconsin 4.64 98.19% 0.9251
17 Cincinnati 4.42 98.98% 0.9168
18 Purdue 4.31 97.32% 0.9346
19 Notre Dame 4.25 97.37% 0.8954
20 SMU 4.12 97.43% 0.931
21 Oklahoma St. 3.85 95.50% 0.9102
22 Iowa St. 3.56 94.32% 0.907
23 Virginia 3.53 93.92% 0.9552
24 Saint Mary’s 3.45 97.21% 0.9294
25 Creighton 3.11 91.65% 0.8945
26 Minnesota 3.01 90.57% 0.8724
27 Maryland 3.00 90.74% 0.8299
28 Wichita St. 2.92 92.31% 0.9396
29 Virginia Tech 2.78 90.66% 0.8241
30 Miami FL 2.68 89.52% 0.884
31 Arkansas 2.58 88.22% 0.8257
32 South Carolina 2.19 82.82% 0.8995
33 Dayton 2.14 84.39% 0.8689
34 Xavier 1.74 77.43% 0.8435
35 USC 1.69 78.79% 0.7734
36 VCU 1.48 74.20% 0.8345
37 Illinois St. 1.39 74.48% 0.8443
38 Middle Tennessee 1.15 71.29% 0.8388
39 Northwestern 1.12 68.73% 0.8537
40 Michigan 0.92 65.40% 0.8796
41 UNC Wilmington 0.89 65.63% 0.7809
42 Seton Hall 0.83 64.27% 0.7968
43 Monmouth 0.68 63.05% 0.7173
44 Michigan St. 0.53 59.22% 0.8204
45 Vermont 0.46 58.32% 0.7677
46 Providence 0.08 51.20% 0.8107
47 TCU 0.06 51.00% 0.8408
48 Nevada -0.08 46.97% 0.7753
49 Belmont -0.12 45.57% 0.7095
50 UT Arlington -0.15 45.58% 0.7515
51 Kansas St. -0.19 46.52% 0.8499
52 Georgia -0.41 42.73% 0.8235
53 Wake Forest -0.49 41.25% 0.8522
54 Marquette -0.50 40.99% 0.8514
55 Valparaiso -0.55 36.80% 0.6908
56 California -0.60 38.09% 0.8433
57 East Tennessee St. -0.72 34.29% 0.7918
58 Akron -0.79 31.98% 0.6534
59 Texas Tech -0.83 34.91% 0.8472
60 Princeton -0.95 29.60% 0.7912
61 Syracuse -1.00 32.76% 0.8199
62 Houston -1.08 29.40% 0.8359
63 Rhode Island -1.12 29.51% 0.8237
64 Mississippi -1.18 29.56% 0.7306
65 Clemson -1.18 30.68% 0.8459
66 Georgia Tech -1.45 24.91% 0.7395
67 New Mexico St. -1.47 19.10% 0.6584
68 Vanderbilt -1.50 26.39% 0.8295
69 Illinois -1.62 23.50% 0.7643
70 Auburn -1.68 23.03% 0.7144
71 Tennessee -1.71 22.33% 0.8075
72 Winthrop -1.75 14.34% 0.6363
73 Florida Gulf Coast -1.78 15.29% 0.6129
74 Pittsburgh -1.89 20.46% 0.7497
75 Indiana -1.93 18.99% 0.8203
76 College of Charleston -1.94 16.98% 0.7083
77 Ohio St. -2.32 15.12% 0.7764
78 UNC Greensboro -2.42 10.63% 0.5855
79 Utah -2.43 11.22% 0.8103
80 Boise St. -2.45 11.79% 0.6816
81 Cal St. Bakersfield -2.51 6.96% 0.6626
82 Alabama -2.55 12.53% 0.7865
83 UNC Asheville -2.55 8.35% 0.6767
84 BYU -2.61 9.85% 0.7616
85 Memphis -2.61 10.46% 0.708
86 Iowa -2.62 12.18% 0.7522
87 Bucknell -2.64 8.46% 0.7229
88 UCF -2.66 9.86% 0.7528
89 Oakland -2.84 6.31% 0.6494
90 Texas A&M -2.94 8.44% 0.7811
91 Colorado St. -3.08 6.84% 0.7041
92 Harvard -3.18 3.63% 0.6426
93 Arkansas St. -3.40 4.29% 0.6163
94 North Carolina Central -3.42 1.49% 0.5473
95 Georgetown -3.52 6.35% 0.7893
96 North Carolina St. -3.63 5.16% 0.6487
97 Stanford -3.72 4.09% 0.6896
98 Nebraska -3.74 5.17% 0.7195
99 St. Bonaventure -3.85 2.92% 0.6908
100 Richmond -3.86 4.10% 0.6868
101 San Francisco -3.89 2.43% 0.6573
102 Penn St. -3.95 4.55% 0.7269
103 George Mason -3.97 2.91% 0.643
104 Chattanooga -3.97 2.34% 0.6692
105 Grand Canyon -4.09 0.99% 0.4802
106 Furman -4.09 2.45% 0.6508
107 Louisiana Tech -4.10 1.31% 0.7002
108 Old Dominion -4.34 1.45% 0.6416
109 Colorado -4.41 2.17% 0.7249
110 Eastern Washington -4.51 0.76% 0.4817
111 Texas Southern -4.59 0.42% 0.4252
112 Oklahoma -4.71 1.72% 0.7856
113 Fresno St. -4.75 1.10% 0.6412
114 Ohio -4.75 0.82% 0.6762
115 Yale -4.75 0.61% 0.5218
116 Connecticut -4.76 1.46% 0.7116
117 Georgia St. -4.78 0.75% 0.6168
118 South Dakota -4.90 0.74% 0.5579
119 Rice -4.92 0.41% 0.5506
120 St. John’s -4.93 1.53% 0.7017
121 North Dakota -4.98 0.24% 0.4891
122 La Salle -4.99 0.94% 0.5974
123 Texas A&M Corpus Chris -5.19 0.10% 0.405
124 Mississippi St. -5.21 1.03% 0.665
125 North Dakota St. -5.24 0.49% 0.5357
126 Temple -5.33 0.74% 0.6269
127 Northern Kentucky -5.37 0.28% 0.5244
128 George Washington -5.41 0.71% 0.5642
129 Davidson -5.42 0.62% 0.6987
130 New Mexico -5.54 0.61% 0.5805
131 Tulsa -5.63 0.49% 0.5696
132 San Diego St. -5.63 0.39% 0.7216
133 Texas -5.81 0.57% 0.7518
134 Iona -5.83 0.22% 0.5816
135 Rutgers -5.85 0.36% 0.5884
136 Georgia Southern -5.87 0.24% 0.5268
137 New Orleans -5.96 0.04% 0.483
138 Tennessee Martin -6.00 0.11% 0.4091
139 Towson -6.02 0.32% 0.5903
140 Wright St. -6.03 0.22% 0.4785
141 Louisiana Lafayette -6.08 0.12% 0.5312
142 Fort Wayne -6.10 0.09% 0.5421
143 New Hampshire -6.17 0.06% 0.5167
144 Lehigh -6.22 0.12% 0.6277
145 Arizona St. -6.33 0.19% 0.5597
146 William & Mary -6.46 0.08% 0.5593
147 Wyoming -6.55 0.12% 0.5475
148 Northern Iowa -6.56 0.17% 0.5059
149 Tennessee St. -6.59 0.05% 0.5228
150 Loyola Marymount -6.75 0.04% 0.5
151 Albany -6.76 0.03% 0.5586
152 Ball St. -6.78 0.04% 0.4593
153 Loyola Chicago -6.79 0.08% 0.6775
154 Marshall -6.80 0.06% 0.5182
155 Washington St. -6.87 0.07% 0.4247
156 UMBC -6.92 0.02% 0.4504
157 Green Bay -6.94 0.03% 0.4889
158 Sam Houston St. -6.97 0.01% 0.3432
159 Nebraska Omaha -6.98 0.05% 0.4452
160 Elon -7.07 0.06% 0.5687
161 Lipscomb -7.20 0.02% 0.5134
162 Houston Baptist -7.24 0.00% 0.379
163 UAB -7.25 0.02% 0.4567
164 Liberty -7.26 0.01% 0.408
165 Kent St. -7.30 0.03% 0.5304
166 UC Irvine -7.31 0.01% 0.5199
167 Saint Peter’s -7.31 0.02% 0.6417
168 Samford -7.32 0.01% 0.5133
169 Alcorn St. -7.33 0.00% 0.2259
170 Santa Clara -7.34 0.02% 0.5552
171 Southern Illinois -7.36 0.03% 0.5272
172 Weber St. -7.40 0.01% 0.4762
173 Texas St. -7.43 0.01% 0.4052
174 San Jose St. -7.46 0.02% 0.4222
175 Penn -7.49 0.01% 0.5308
176 Stony Brook -7.61 0.01% 0.4106
177 Gardner Webb -7.66 0.00% 0.4393
178 UC Davis -7.68 0.00% 0.3678
179 LIU Brooklyn -7.80 0.00% 0.3134
180 Canisius -7.82 0.01% 0.4712
181 East Carolina -7.92 0.00% 0.4116
182 Stephen F. Austin -7.93 0.00% 0.3467
183 LSU -8.14 0.02% 0.4974
184 Boston University -8.16 0.00% 0.4611
185 Buffalo -8.19 0.01% 0.5769
186 Mount St. Mary’s -8.29 0.00% 0.3885
187 Northeastern -8.33 0.01% 0.556
188 Utah St. -8.45 0.01% 0.5567
189 Massachusetts -8.48 0.01% 0.5258
190 Toledo -8.52 0.01% 0.5759
191 Central Michigan -8.55 0.00% 0.379
192 Troy -8.60 0.00% 0.5052
193 Missouri St. -8.61 0.00% 0.5535
194 Evansville -8.65 0.00% 0.5167
195 Fairfield -8.67 0.00% 0.4026
196 Denver -8.67 0.00% 0.471
197 Jacksonville St. -8.82 0.00% 0.4513
198 Western Michigan -8.83 0.00% 0.5026
199 Idaho -8.92 0.00% 0.3466
200 Coastal Carolina -8.95 0.00% 0.4398
201 UMKC -9.14 0.00% 0.3721
202 Eastern Michigan -9.18 0.00% 0.5378
203 Wofford -9.22 0.00% 0.5289
204 Washington -9.30 0.00% 0.5053
205 Boston College -9.30 0.00% 0.5138
206 Charlotte -9.32 0.00% 0.3291
207 Fordham -9.37 0.00% 0.4393
208 Mercer -9.42 0.00% 0.5424
209 San Diego -9.42 0.00% 0.2937
210 Norfolk St. -9.46 0.00% 0.199
211 Columbia -9.54 0.00% 0.3634
212 Morehead St. -9.57 0.00% 0.4265
213 USC Upstate -9.64 0.00% 0.3513
214 Hawaii -9.66 0.00% 0.2757
215 Siena -9.67 0.00% 0.4728
216 Rider -9.68 0.00% 0.3954
217 DePaul -9.78 0.00% 0.4753
218 Northern Illinois -9.84 0.00% 0.4206
219 Utah Valley -9.94 0.00% 0.4361
220 Wagner -9.99 0.00% 0.3305
221 Saint Joseph’s -9.99 0.00% 0.5055
222 Loyola MD -10.08 0.00% 0.3163
223 Hofstra -10.09 0.00% 0.4846
224 Portland St. -10.11 0.00% 0.3407
225 Holy Cross -10.23 0.00% 0.3832
226 Western Kentucky -10.26 0.00% 0.3374
227 Lamar -10.28 0.00% 0.3472
228 Nicholls St. -10.40 0.00% 0.1927
229 South Dakota St. -10.41 0.00% 0.4439
230 Long Beach St. -10.48 0.00% 0.3327
231 South Alabama -10.50 0.00% 0.3643
232 Montana -10.51 0.00% 0.4145
233 Montana St. -10.65 0.00% 0.3297
234 UTEP -10.66 0.00% 0.4046
235 High Point -10.68 0.00% 0.2988
236 Navy -10.70 0.00% 0.3895
237 Cal St. Fullerton -10.74 0.00% 0.2371
238 Little Rock -10.75 0.00% 0.3
239 Seattle -10.82 0.00% 0.2517
240 Bowling Green -10.82 0.00% 0.3252
241 IUPUI -10.85 0.00% 0.4219
242 Abilene Christian -10.91 0.00% 0.2282
243 Brown -10.97 0.00% 0.2643
244 Radford -11.00 0.00% 0.2242
245 Jacksonville -11.04 0.00% 0.2632
246 Morgan St. -11.25 0.00% 0.1495
247 Indiana St. -11.25 0.00% 0.4349
248 Bradley -11.36 0.00% 0.3703
249 Southeastern Louisiana -11.39 0.00% 0.3363
250 St. Francis PA -11.42 0.00% 0.2824
251 South Carolina St. -11.45 0.00% 0.1098
252 Savannah St. -11.49 0.00% 0.1684
253 Murray St. -11.54 0.00% 0.4373
254 Missouri -11.55 0.00% 0.5257
255 Eastern Illinois -11.64 0.00% 0.3634
256 Saint Louis -11.64 0.00% 0.2181
257 Southern -11.77 0.00% 0.1736
258 Grambling St. -11.82 0.00% 0.1197
259 Hampton -11.83 0.00% 0.1765
260 Cal St. Northridge -11.91 0.00% 0.2786
261 Illinois Chicago -11.91 0.00% 0.3437
262 UNLV -12.02 0.00% 0.294
263 North Florida -12.03 0.00% 0.2901
264 Duquesne -12.32 0.00% 0.3668
265 Campbell -12.41 0.00% 0.191
266 Northwestern St. -12.48 0.00% 0.2014
267 Maryland Eastern Shore -12.54 0.00% 0.1933
268 Sacramento St. -12.56 0.00% 0.2089
269 UTSA -12.56 0.00% 0.2558
270 Incarnate Word -12.57 0.00% 0.1915
271 Southeast Missouri St. -12.60 0.00% 0.3589
272 Kennesaw St. -12.73 0.00% 0.304
273 Air Force -12.80 0.00% 0.3752
274 Florida Atlantic -12.83 0.00% 0.2896
275 Robert Morris -12.89 0.00% 0.2518
276 Pacific -12.96 0.00% 0.3158
277 South Florida -12.99 0.00% 0.2125
278 Northern Colorado -13.04 0.00% 0.2311
279 Charleston Southern -13.16 0.00% 0.2047
280 Army -13.22 0.00% 0.3219
281 Portland -13.24 0.00% 0.2409
282 Delaware -13.27 0.00% 0.2019
283 Prairie View A&M -13.31 0.00% 0.1585
284 Pepperdine -13.38 0.00% 0.2169
285 Appalachian St. -13.38 0.00% 0.2912
286 Eastern Kentucky -13.40 0.00% 0.2577
287 Fairleigh Dickinson -13.41 0.00% 0.2743
288 Jackson St. -13.55 0.00% 0.1332
289 Cal Poly -13.74 0.00% 0.221
290 Quinnipiac -13.83 0.00% 0.2509
291 Tennessee Tech -13.88 0.00% 0.2843
292 NJIT -13.96 0.00% 0.2553
293 Austin Peay -13.96 0.00% 0.2401
294 The Citadel -14.00 0.00% 0.2235
295 Bryant -14.10 0.00% 0.2648
296 Cornell -14.25 0.00% 0.2719
297 Western Carolina -14.36 0.00% 0.1477
298 Western Illinois -14.48 0.00% 0.2047
299 Tulane -14.58 0.00% 0.3199
300 Sacred Heart -14.61 0.00% 0.2022
301 Binghamton -14.65 0.00% 0.18
302 Cleveland St. -14.67 0.00% 0.3437
303 Dartmouth -14.78 0.00% 0.1959
304 Louisiana Monroe -14.83 0.00% 0.2882
305 Miami OH -14.84 0.00% 0.2062
306 Manhattan -14.95 0.00% 0.2273
307 Youngstown St. -15.01 0.00% 0.2165
308 Oral Roberts -15.10 0.00% 0.3355
309 Lafayette -15.22 0.00% 0.128
310 UC Riverside -15.32 0.00% 0.1646
311 Detroit -15.36 0.00% 0.2362
312 Southern Miss -15.37 0.00% 0.1492
313 McNeese St. -15.51 0.00% 0.1676
314 VMI -15.52 0.00% 0.1601
315 UT Rio Grande Valley -15.68 0.00% 0.1974
316 Alabama St. -15.69 0.00% 0.0874
317 UMass Lowell -15.76 0.00% 0.2369
318 American -15.77 0.00% 0.1915
319 Colgate -15.85 0.00% 0.2594
320 North Texas -15.87 0.00% 0.1587
321 Central Arkansas -15.92 0.00% 0.2075
322 Oregon St. -15.92 0.00% 0.2523
323 Stetson -16.00 0.00% 0.1845
324 Coppin St. -16.06 0.00% 0.085
325 UC Santa Barbara -16.08 0.00% 0.0964
326 Drake -16.24 0.00% 0.2988
327 James Madison -16.26 0.00% 0.3443
328 Drexel -16.31 0.00% 0.3321
329 Niagara -16.48 0.00% 0.2945
330 Howard -16.49 0.00% 0.092
331 Marist -16.50 0.00% 0.1835
332 Milwaukee -16.54 0.00% 0.2393
333 Delaware St. -16.61 0.00% 0.1013
334 Chicago St. -17.49 0.00% 0.0949
335 Mississippi Valley St. -17.63 0.00% 0.072
336 Idaho St. -17.68 0.00% 0.145
337 Hartford -17.69 0.00% 0.1182
338 Northern Arizona -17.74 0.00% 0.1366
339 Bethune Cookman -18.04 0.00% 0.0979
340 Florida A&M -18.40 0.00% 0.0829
341 Maine -18.44 0.00% 0.106
342 Longwood -18.55 0.00% 0.0576
343 FIU -18.77 0.00% 0.2191
344 SIU Edwardsville -19.31 0.00% 0.1665
345 Arkansas Pine Bluff -19.45 0.00% 0.0535
346 Presbyterian -19.65 0.00% 0.0374
347 Central Connecticut -19.84 0.00% 0.0893
348 Southern Utah -20.51 0.00% 0.1284
349 Alabama A&M -21.25 0.00% 0.0356
350 St. Francis NY -22.81 0.00% 0.058
351 North Carolina A&T -23.55 0.00% 0.0433

Wichita State has been in the headlines recently. Gary Parrish wrote this column:

http://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/a-bubble-a-double-standard-and-a-wichita-st-team-on-the-wrong-side-of-both/

In it he compared Wichita State with TCU. He included this thought:

“In fairness, I do think TCU — which I like and would love to see in the NCAA Tournament, but that’s not the point of this column — would probably be 15-1 against Wichita State’s league schedule with a home win over Illinois State and a road loss to Illinois State — just like the Shockers.”

Now, I’m not sure where he got 15-1 from. Wichita St. is currently 16-1, and was at the time of the writing. However, that’s not the key point. The real issue is the idea that we presume every game where a team would be favored should count as a win, and every game where a team would be an underdog gets considered a loss. He’s absolutely right that TCU would be favored in all of the games but the road game at Illinois State. However, when I ran the KenPom projections for TCU though I found their expected record would currently be 13.42-3.58. They’d be undefeated 1.24% of the time, and 16-1 7.00% of the time. In other words, there is around a 92% chance that they’d have two or more conference losses if they were playing Wichita State’s schedule. Now, is it possible the KenPom’s are a bit optimistic about the strength of the MVC? Sure. It’s also possible that the KenPom’s underrate TCU. However, no matter which numbers we run, it is going to be highly unlikely that TCU would be 16-1 or better. It’s very hard to win that many while losing so few.

(I just ran the numbers for Sagarin. The expected record improved to 13.60-3.40, with the odds of being undefeated jumping to 1.72%, and 16-1 to 8.65%.)

The MVC isn’t great, but what Wichita State (and Illinois State) are doing to it is very impressive. Also, I just discovered an amazing fact via Mark Adams:

That is a lot of road wins. They’ve been a mainstay in the KenPom top 20 since 2011. They are one of the best teams in the country. You know what… let’s come back to Wichita State in a bit. I want to shift gears and talk about Gonzaga for a moment.

In the preseason the top 2 teams were clear: Duke at #1, UK at #2. Duke has had a few moments where the looked like a super team, but for the most part they are still a sleeping giant who hasn’t fully awoken. Kentucky looked great for a while, but teams have learned how to break down their defense, and they haven’t fully adjusted. Their game tomorrow vs. Florida is going to be fascinating. Kansas and defending champ Villanova have put together the most impressive resumes, but neither appears to be the best team in the country. That nod goes to a school from the WCC: Gonzaga. Massey and KenPom have them well clear of the field, as does Dolphin. BPI and Sagarin have then slightly above their closest competitors. Either way, they are absolutely dominating their competition in a way that reminds me a bit of UNLV. No, they aren’t as talented as the team Duke took down in the final four, but they are incredibly impressive in conference play. I am very excited to see what they’ll do in this year’s NCAA Tournament. Right now, they are the favorite, which is an amazing thing to write.

My distaste for the “Blind Resume Taste” runs deep. I don’t care about not having the team names, but I very much mind not having all the relevant information about a team’s resume. The issue came up on Twitter last night:

I commented:

That caught the attention of David Worlock:

I replied that while the committee almost certainly doesn’t waste time playing blind resume games, the real issue is the information presented on the team sheet. However, even beyond that (and the use of RPI), there is the issue of the lack of clarity between “Best Team and Best Resume”

David referred me to “Page 1 of the principles and procedures: Select the best 36 at-large teams. Not sure how much more definitive we can be.”

http://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2016-03-13/march-madness-bracket-how-68-teams-are-selected-division-i

The problem is that there is a following modifier “based upon play to date”. Ken Pomeroy talked about the conflict here:

“In the past, the NCAA has sent conflicting messages about whether its selection and seeding process is fundamentally a forward-looking endeavor or a backward-looking one. “In terms of the how the committee should select teams, it actually says in [the NCAA guidelines] that they need to select the best 36 at-large teams — based on results,” Pomeroy said. “Best” and “based on results” don’t always line up, though. “It’s like a contradiction right in that sentence.””

“Best” describes what something is. We quantify such things in power ratings, such as Pythag. “Play to date” traditionally has referred to the proverbial “Body of work”, which is a teams resume. The contradiction can be eliminated in multiple ways. If the “Play to date” clause was removed, and the committee was directed to simply pick the 36 best teams, they’d have a clear objective. Alternately, they could be directed to pick the 36 most accomplished teams. That doesn’t have the ring of “best”, but it would make it clear that we are looking for the 36 best bodies of work.

I will note that CBS’s resident bracketologist Jerry Palm has Wichita State in the first four out:

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

For a team that is universally considered on of the top 16 teams in the country to be on the bubble suggests that Worlock’s claim of clarity is inaccurate. Committee or not, there can be no realistic debate that Wichita State is one of the 36 best teams in the country. That means that Jerry Palm is looking at other metrics when selecting and seeding the field. It might look a bit like this:

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/teams/rpi/WICHST/wichita-state-shockers

The key takeaway is they are 1-4 vs. the RPI top 50. A rational observer might look at the neutral court loss to Michigan State and the home loss to Oklahoma State and anchor off of that. You’d need a lot of information to realize that Wichita State is actually an elite team with a resume that is significantly better than those of their competition

By the way, while Illinois State isn’t nearly as good as Wichita State, their resume is better than those of most bubble teams. Gary Parrish finished his column with this:

“Either way, in a perfect world, the Shockers will win the MVC tournament and render this entire debate moot. But if the world were perfect, or at least fair, such wouldn’t even be required.”

It’s highly likely either Wichita State or Illinois State will win the MVC conference tournament. On Selection Sunday I expect the other one to be very nervous.

Full WAB’s here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hof8DT8OCt_9A-f93NnXnSfMdp97B1qvmQ8Hw_X3X8Y/edit#gid=0

WAB Rank School WAB-AVG Pythag Pythag Rank
1 Kansas 9.79 0.9519 7
2 Villanova 8.55 0.9605 3
3 Gonzaga 7.28 0.9752 1
4 Baylor 7.20 0.9390 14
5 North Carolina 6.96 0.9603 5
6 Louisville 6.50 0.9554 6
7 Florida 6.47 0.9603 4
8 Arizona 6.10 0.9205 21
9 Kentucky 5.83 0.9514 8
10 Butler 5.67 0.9178 22
11 Duke 5.46 0.9420 11
12 UCLA 5.37 0.9343 15
13 Oregon 5.34 0.9417 12
14 Wisconsin 4.98 0.9254 19
15 Purdue 4.86 0.9452 10
16 Florida St. 4.77 0.9265 18
17 West Virginia 4.59 0.9617 2
18 Notre Dame 4.58 0.9114 25
19 Cincinnati 4.56 0.9214 20
20 Maryland 4.06 0.8568 37
21 SMU 3.87 0.9284 16
22 Oklahoma St. 3.75 0.9151 24
23 Creighton 3.60 0.9053 26
24 Virginia 3.48 0.9482 9
25 Saint Mary’s 3.34 0.9269 17
26 Iowa St. 3.14 0.9168 23
27 Minnesota 3.09 0.8732 29
28 Virginia Tech 2.86 0.8269 49
29 Wichita St. 2.55 0.9391 13
30 Miami FL 2.50 0.8851 28
31 Arkansas 2.21 0.8321 45
32 South Carolina 2.14 0.8704 31
33 Xavier 2.07 0.8554 38
34 USC 1.93 0.7859 62
35 VCU 1.91 0.8419 42
36 Northwestern 1.85 0.8472 39
37 Dayton 1.81 0.8672 33
38 Illinois St. 1.24 0.8114 57
39 Middle Tennessee 1.15 0.8261 50
40 Seton Hall 0.81 0.8101 58
41 Michigan St. 0.79 0.8305 47
42 UNC Wilmington 0.67 0.7762 65
43 TCU 0.59 0.8358 44
44 Kansas St. 0.58 0.8725 30
45 Michigan 0.57 0.8864 27
46 Monmouth 0.52 0.7232 83
47 Vermont 0.33 0.7525 73
48 Marquette 0.22 0.8677 32
49 Wake Forest 0.10 0.8622 35
50 Providence 0.03 0.8145 54
51 UT Arlington -0.17 0.7545 72
52 Nevada -0.18 0.7727 66
53 Belmont -0.24 0.7212 84
54 Georgia -0.43 0.8286 48
55 California -0.48 0.8316 46
56 Texas Tech -0.49 0.8648 34
57 Clemson -0.57 0.8591 36
58 Syracuse -0.69 0.8417 43
59 Valparaiso -0.74 0.6739 100
60 East Tennessee St. -0.83 0.7615 69
61 Auburn -0.87 0.7340 78
62 Akron -1.03 0.6570 102
63 Houston -1.06 0.8464 40
64 Georgia Tech -1.07 0.7247 82
65 Mississippi -1.14 0.7572 70
66 Pittsburgh -1.18 0.7883 61
67 Princeton -1.21 0.7551 71
68 Tennessee -1.29 0.8239 51
69 Rhode Island -1.29 0.8194 53
70 Illinois -1.37 0.7765 64
71 New Mexico St. -1.56 0.6298 111
72 Vanderbilt -1.56 0.8236 52
73 Winthrop -1.67 0.6091 119
74 Florida Gulf Coast -1.79 0.6202 116
75 Alabama -1.93 0.7941 59
76 Indiana -2.04 0.8462 41
77 College of Charleston -2.05 0.6790 97
78 Ohio St. -2.08 0.7902 60
79 Utah -2.14 0.8141 55
80 UCF -2.47 0.7431 74
81 Arkansas St. -2.48 0.6232 114
82 Boise St. -2.53 0.6863 94
83 Georgetown -2.54 0.8120 56
84 Cal St. Bakersfield -2.56 0.6388 109
85 Memphis -2.58 0.7062 88
86 UNC Asheville -2.62 0.6451 108
87 UNC Greensboro -2.63 0.5728 131
88 Bucknell -2.76 0.7038 90
89 Iowa -2.89 0.7424 75
90 North Carolina St. -3.00 0.6859 95
91 Texas A&M -3.06 0.7815 63
92 Stanford -3.10 0.6765 99
93 Oakland -3.11 0.6238 113
94 Penn St. -3.22 0.7411 76
95 Harvard -3.25 0.6221 115
96 Colorado St. -3.25 0.6932 92
97 Chattanooga -3.26 0.6457 106
98 Nebraska -3.42 0.7278 81
99 Louisiana Tech -3.49 0.6929 93
100 North Carolina Central -3.49 0.5057 167
101 BYU -3.52 0.7361 77
102 St. Bonaventure -3.77 0.7207 85
103 Richmond -3.80 0.6713 101
104 George Mason -3.81 0.6500 104
105 Ohio -3.99 0.6786 98
106 San Francisco -3.99 0.6455 107
107 Colorado -4.10 0.7334 79
108 Connecticut -4.11 0.7298 80
109 Grand Canyon -4.16 0.4670 184
110 Yale -4.18 0.5277 149
111 North Dakota St. -4.32 0.5442 139
112 Furman -4.39 0.6371 110
113 Eastern Washington -4.41 0.4888 177
114 Old Dominion -4.42 0.6244 112
115 Texas Southern -4.63 0.4172 204
116 Davidson -4.67 0.7137 87
117 Fresno St. -4.69 0.6473 105
118 Oklahoma -4.75 0.7649 67
119 Mississippi St. -4.78 0.7046 89
120 St. John’s -4.82 0.6993 91
121 La Salle -4.83 0.6088 120
122 Georgia St. -4.85 0.5826 126
123 New Mexico -4.92 0.6004 122
124 South Dakota -4.99 0.5379 143
125 North Dakota -5.02 0.5057 166
126 San Diego St. -5.06 0.7147 86
127 Rice -5.10 0.5341 146
128 New Orleans -5.14 0.4310 196
129 Temple -5.21 0.6514 103
130 Texas -5.22 0.7649 68
131 George Washington -5.27 0.5836 125
132 Wright St. -5.30 0.4893 176
133 Texas A&M Corpus Chris -5.34 0.3842 216
134 Towson -5.38 0.5847 124
135 Northern Kentucky -5.40 0.5067 165
136 Rutgers -5.59 0.6022 121
137 Tulsa -5.64 0.5700 132
138 Iona -5.85 0.5541 136
139 Northern Iowa -5.91 0.5137 161
140 Tennessee St. -5.93 0.4917 174
141 Ball St. -5.94 0.5180 157
142 Loyola Chicago -6.06 0.6858 96
143 Green Bay -6.09 0.5138 159
144 Tennessee Martin -6.09 0.3941 213
145 Arizona St. -6.12 0.5733 130
146 Fort Wayne -6.15 0.5748 129
147 Sam Houston St. -6.17 0.3531 227
148 Georgia Southern -6.22 0.4878 179
149 UMBC -6.23 0.4428 191
150 Lehigh -6.26 0.6139 118
151 New Hampshire -6.27 0.5008 169
152 Louisiana Lafayette -6.38 0.5355 144
153 Samford -6.55 0.5018 168
154 Weber St. -6.57 0.4942 171
155 Wyoming -6.57 0.5288 148
156 Washington St. -6.57 0.4328 195
157 Liberty -6.67 0.4224 202
158 William & Mary -6.70 0.5622 134
159 Albany -6.75 0.5514 137
160 Penn -6.77 0.5444 138
161 San Jose St. -6.79 0.4221 203
162 Loyola Marymount -6.88 0.4926 173
163 Nebraska Omaha -6.92 0.4448 188
164 Marshall -6.92 0.5168 158
165 Canisius -6.94 0.4882 178
166 Lipscomb -7.08 0.5231 153
167 Stony Brook -7.09 0.4170 205
168 Buffalo -7.10 0.5938 123
169 Elon -7.12 0.5440 140
170 Santa Clara -7.16 0.5780 127
171 UAB -7.25 0.4771 181
172 UC Irvine -7.33 0.5439 141
173 Saint Peter’s -7.37 0.6179 117
174 Houston Baptist -7.41 0.3296 241
175 Kent St. -7.41 0.5246 152
176 Alcorn St. -7.46 0.2092 296
177 Texas St. -7.53 0.4025 208
178 Southern Illinois -7.55 0.5072 164
179 UC Davis -7.62 0.3840 217
180 LSU -7.62 0.4763 182
181 Central Michigan -7.64 0.4240 201
182 Gardner Webb -7.75 0.4431 190
183 Troy -7.77 0.5138 160
184 Denver -7.82 0.4941 172
185 East Carolina -7.91 0.4258 200
186 LIU Brooklyn -7.99 0.2994 258
187 Northeastern -7.99 0.5352 145
188 Coastal Carolina -8.14 0.4284 198
189 Stephen F. Austin -8.16 0.3193 249
190 Mount St. Mary’s -8.26 0.3802 219
191 Missouri St. -8.26 0.5755 128
192 Boston University -8.32 0.4392 193
193 Boston College -8.32 0.5555 135
194 Massachusetts -8.34 0.5422 142
195 Charlotte -8.34 0.3288 242
196 UMKC -8.38 0.3590 225
197 Utah St. -8.46 0.5288 147
198 Fordham -8.50 0.4905 175
199 Toledo -8.53 0.5675 133
200 Morehead St. -8.59 0.4561 187
201 DePaul -8.76 0.4985 170
202 Evansville -8.81 0.5089 163
203 Western Michigan -8.81 0.4760 183
204 Fairfield -8.86 0.3888 215
205 Wofford -8.87 0.5200 156
206 Saint Joseph’s -8.90 0.5263 150
207 Idaho -8.92 0.3505 229
208 Columbia -8.94 0.3963 211
209 Jacksonville St. -8.96 0.4115 206
210 Wagner -8.99 0.3436 233
211 Northern Illinois -9.02 0.4431 189
212 Eastern Michigan -9.08 0.5227 155
213 Washington -9.09 0.5228 154
214 Loyola MD -9.12 0.3119 252
215 Siena -9.16 0.4660 185
216 Holy Cross -9.41 0.3764 220
217 San Diego -9.43 0.3029 255
218 Long Beach St. -9.44 0.3419 235
219 Lamar -9.45 0.3453 231
220 Norfolk St. -9.49 0.1911 306
221 Montana -9.51 0.4405 192
222 Rider -9.61 0.3924 214
223 USC Upstate -9.63 0.3448 232
224 Hawaii -9.66 0.3393 237
225 Western Kentucky -9.71 0.3530 228
226 Cal St. Fullerton -9.73 0.2555 278
227 High Point -9.80 0.3055 254
228 Little Rock -9.83 0.3430 234
229 IUPUI -9.87 0.4279 199
230 Mercer -9.92 0.5117 162
231 South Alabama -10.00 0.3594 224
232 Portland St. -10.08 0.3369 238
233 Utah Valley -10.09 0.3961 212
234 Radford -10.14 0.2214 290
235 Seattle -10.23 0.2829 264
236 Navy -10.23 0.3975 210
237 Hofstra -10.34 0.4779 180
238 Brown -10.44 0.2703 269
239 South Dakota St. -10.47 0.4284 197
240 Indiana St. -10.50 0.4633 186
241 Nicholls St. -10.55 0.1538 319
242 Southeastern Louisiana -10.64 0.3216 248
243 Montana St. -10.67 0.3224 247
244 Eastern Illinois -10.69 0.3995 209
245 UTEP -10.76 0.3802 218
246 Murray St. -10.77 0.4374 194
247 Southern -10.79 0.1661 318
248 Missouri -10.83 0.5249 151
249 Bowling Green -10.85 0.3225 246
250 Hampton -10.95 0.1765 311
251 Jacksonville -10.97 0.2623 272
252 Cal St. Northridge -11.00 0.2848 263
253 UNLV -11.16 0.3243 244
254 Illinois Chicago -11.22 0.3402 236
255 Abilene Christian -11.22 0.1903 308
256 Morgan St. -11.27 0.1362 326
257 St. Francis PA -11.38 0.2816 266
258 Bradley -11.43 0.3662 222
259 Duquesne -11.53 0.3663 221
260 South Carolina St. -11.53 0.0952 337
261 Savannah St. -11.54 0.1355 327
262 Southeast Missouri St. -11.55 0.3610 223
263 Saint Louis -11.56 0.2442 281
264 UTSA -11.71 0.2424 283
265 Grambling St. -11.86 0.0986 336
266 North Florida -11.89 0.3027 256
267 Pacific -12.01 0.3478 230
268 Northern Colorado -12.06 0.2379 285
269 Air Force -12.08 0.4112 207
270 Prairie View A&M -12.26 0.1664 317
271 Portland -12.31 0.2594 275
272 Appalachian St. -12.34 0.3146 251
273 Pepperdine -12.42 0.2206 291
274 Fairleigh Dickinson -12.45 0.2812 267
275 Sacramento St. -12.50 0.2177 292
276 Campbell -12.53 0.2059 301
277 Army -12.53 0.3156 250
278 Cornell -12.60 0.2822 265
279 Maryland Eastern Shore -12.62 0.1716 315
280 Jackson St. -12.63 0.1446 322
281 Delaware -12.64 0.2063 299
282 Incarnate Word -12.64 0.1739 312
283 Northwestern St. -12.70 0.1731 313
284 Kennesaw St. -12.73 0.2874 261
285 Florida Atlantic -12.87 0.2865 262
286 Tennessee Tech -12.93 0.3073 253
287 Robert Morris -12.93 0.2600 274
288 South Florida -12.93 0.2216 289
289 Dartmouth -12.98 0.2228 288
290 Charleston Southern -13.22 0.2062 300
291 Eastern Kentucky -13.37 0.2623 273
292 Western Illinois -13.44 0.2142 295
293 Sacred Heart -13.61 0.2068 298
294 Binghamton -13.68 0.1904 307
295 Cal Poly -13.71 0.2082 297
296 Miami OH -13.77 0.2457 280
297 Western Carolina -13.83 0.1348 328
298 Quinnipiac -13.84 0.2558 277
299 Tulane -13.88 0.3262 243
300 NJIT -13.96 0.2638 271
301 Austin Peay -14.00 0.2172 293
302 Bryant -14.08 0.2576 276
303 UC Riverside -14.14 0.1994 304
304 Youngstown St. -14.16 0.2142 294
305 Manhattan -14.28 0.2429 282
306 The Citadel -14.45 0.1719 314
307 Cleveland St. -14.72 0.3227 245
308 Alabama St. -14.78 0.0927 339
309 McNeese St. -14.80 0.1387 325
310 Colgate -14.84 0.2779 268
311 UT Rio Grande Valley -14.85 0.2001 302
312 North Texas -14.92 0.1948 305
313 Louisiana Monroe -14.98 0.2667 270
314 Oral Roberts -14.99 0.3344 239
315 VMI -15.06 0.1507 320
316 Central Arkansas -15.08 0.1794 310
317 Oregon St. -15.31 0.2891 259
318 Drake -15.32 0.3013 257
319 Lafayette -15.43 0.1232 333
320 Southern Miss -15.43 0.1296 330
321 Howard -15.50 0.0913 340
322 James Madison -15.51 0.3554 226
323 Detroit -15.56 0.2316 286
324 Milwaukee -15.60 0.2507 279
325 Niagara -15.61 0.2878 260
326 Delaware St. -15.66 0.0988 335
327 UMass Lowell -15.71 0.2382 284
328 Drexel -15.77 0.3300 240
329 American -15.92 0.1995 303
330 Stetson -15.96 0.1684 316
331 UC Santa Barbara -15.97 0.1237 332
332 Coppin St. -16.08 0.0701 344
333 Marist -16.53 0.1847 309
334 Northern Arizona -16.82 0.1394 324
335 Idaho St. -16.86 0.1403 323
336 Chicago St. -16.90 0.0898 341
337 Hartford -16.92 0.1248 331
338 Bethune Cookman -17.45 0.0835 342
339 Florida A&M -17.51 0.0718 343
340 Longwood -17.52 0.0628 347
341 Mississippi Valley St. -17.53 0.0686 345
342 FIU -17.98 0.2272 287
343 Arkansas Pine Bluff -18.32 0.0623 348
344 Maine -18.50 0.1097 334
345 Presbyterian -18.84 0.0456 349
346 Central Connecticut -18.85 0.0932 338
347 SIU Edwardsville -19.22 0.1467 321
348 Southern Utah -19.52 0.1308 329
349 Alabama A&M -21.28 0.0286 351
350 St. Francis NY -21.95 0.0634 346
351 North Carolina A&T -22.58 0.0448 350

 

That was great. Here, let’s watch it again:

Does that mean Syracuse is in? No, they still have some work to do. Lunardi has them as a 10-seed. Palm has them as the last team in. Who knows what the committee will do, but if I were Orange I wouldn’t relax until I had at least 20 wins.

In other news, Kansas has cemented themselves at the top of the WAB standings. Butler seems to have Villanova’s number. North Carolina has played themselves onto the #1 line. I’m curious what happens if Baylor runs the table (which would include a win at Iowa State, as well as a win at home over West Virginia), along with Gonzaga running out as well. There are only four 1-seeds, so someone has to miss out. My guess is Baylor loses at least twice more and simplifies the issue.

One thing I’m wondering about: Are the ratings systems underestimating the Pac 12? I mean all of them. KenPom, Sagarin, BPI, Massey, Matchup Zone, and Dolphin. In their predictive ratings none have a Pac 12 team higher than eighth. How good are UCLA and Oregon? I’m not sure, and I’m interested in seeing how they fair in the tournament.

Full WAB’s available here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hof8DT8OCt_9A-f93NnXnSfMdp97B1qvmQ8Hw_X3X8Y/edit#gid=0

WAB Rank School WAB-AVG Pythag Pythag Rank
1 Kansas 9.78 0.9517 7
2 Villanova 8.51 0.9607 3
3 North Carolina 7.43 0.9602 4
4 Baylor 7.17 0.9384 14
5 Gonzaga 7.12 0.9720 1
6 Louisville 6.47 0.9553 6
7 Florida 6.42 0.9599 5
8 Kentucky 5.76 0.9509 8
9 Arizona 5.76 0.9184 21
10 Butler 5.62 0.9162 23
11 Duke 5.42 0.9419 11
12 Wisconsin 5.35 0.9323 16
13 Oregon 5.31 0.9413 12
14 UCLA 5.04 0.9339 15
15 Cincinnati 5.03 0.9205 20
16 Purdue 4.82 0.9448 10
17 Florida St. 4.72 0.9257 18
18 West Virginia 4.58 0.9616 2
19 Notre Dame 4.56 0.9111 25
20 Maryland 4.03 0.8575 37
21 Oklahoma St. 3.89 0.9144 24
22 SMU 3.84 0.9277 17
23 Creighton 3.78 0.9059 26
24 Virginia 3.44 0.9478 9
25 Saint Mary’s 3.23 0.9236 19
26 Iowa St. 3.20 0.9163 22
27 Wichita St. 3.11 0.9387 13
28 Minnesota 3.03 0.8701 30
29 Virginia Tech 2.85 0.8264 47
30 Miami FL 2.47 0.8845 28
31 Arkansas 2.12 0.8309 45
32 Xavier 2.11 0.8550 38
33 USC 2.10 0.7874 61
34 South Carolina 2.09 0.8696 31
35 VCU 1.86 0.8416 42
36 Northwestern 1.82 0.8459 40
37 Dayton 1.81 0.8673 32
38 Illinois St. 1.52 0.8117 56
39 Middle Tennessee 1.17 0.8258 48
40 Seton Hall 0.79 0.8082 57
41 Vermont 0.69 0.7500 73
42 TCU 0.57 0.8354 44
43 Kansas St. 0.56 0.8731 29
44 Michigan 0.56 0.8868 27
45 UNC Wilmington 0.53 0.7790 63
46 Monmouth 0.51 0.7226 83
47 Michigan St. 0.50 0.8218 50
48 Marquette 0.20 0.8672 33
49 Nevada 0.12 0.7703 66
50 Wake Forest 0.07 0.8615 35
51 Providence -0.01 0.8123 55
52 UT Arlington -0.19 0.7541 71
53 Belmont -0.25 0.7202 84
54 Texas Tech -0.51 0.8639 34
55 California -0.53 0.8294 46
56 Clemson -0.59 0.8584 36
57 New Mexico St. -0.67 0.6578 102
58 Syracuse -0.70 0.8407 43
59 Valparaiso -0.76 0.6723 100
60 East Tennessee St. -0.83 0.7606 69
61 Auburn -0.89 0.7332 79
62 Georgia -1.01 0.8206 52
63 Alabama -1.01 0.7997 59
64 Akron -1.04 0.6560 104
65 Houston -1.10 0.8451 41
66 Mississippi -1.16 0.7565 70
67 Pittsburgh -1.20 0.7878 60
68 Princeton -1.24 0.7532 72
69 Rhode Island -1.30 0.8187 53
70 Tennessee -1.32 0.8242 49
71 Georgia Tech -1.35 0.7240 82
72 Illinois -1.40 0.7756 65
73 Winthrop -1.46 0.6084 119
74 Vanderbilt -1.59 0.8211 51
75 Florida Gulf Coast -1.83 0.6267 112
76 UNC Asheville -1.86 0.6566 103
77 Indiana -2.07 0.8466 39
78 College of Charleston -2.09 0.6818 97
79 Memphis -2.40 0.7062 88
80 Bucknell -2.48 0.7014 90
81 Arkansas St. -2.48 0.6224 113
82 UCF -2.50 0.7414 74
83 Georgetown -2.54 0.8126 54
84 Boise St. -2.55 0.6852 94
85 UNC Greensboro -2.62 0.5709 130
86 Utah -2.65 0.8065 58
87 Cal St. Bakersfield -2.66 0.6383 110
88 Ohio St. -2.66 0.7760 64
89 Iowa -2.92 0.7414 75
90 Chattanooga -2.94 0.6472 108
91 North Carolina St. -3.02 0.6853 93
92 Nebraska -3.08 0.7356 78
93 Texas A&M -3.10 0.7812 62
94 Stanford -3.15 0.6743 99
95 Oakland -3.16 0.6210 114
96 Colorado St. -3.24 0.6929 92
97 Penn St. -3.25 0.7398 76
98 Harvard -3.27 0.6203 115
99 San Francisco -3.30 0.6473 107
100 Colorado -3.48 0.7383 77
101 North Carolina Central -3.51 0.5037 168
102 Louisiana Tech -3.58 0.6848 96
103 BYU -3.64 0.7267 81
104 St. Bonaventure -3.80 0.7180 85
105 George Mason -3.82 0.6494 106
106 Richmond -3.86 0.6681 101
107 Ohio -3.99 0.6781 98
108 Furman -4.09 0.6365 111
109 Connecticut -4.16 0.7276 80
110 Grand Canyon -4.17 0.4551 187
111 Yale -4.25 0.5255 151
112 North Dakota St. -4.37 0.5429 143
113 Old Dominion -4.51 0.6074 120
114 Eastern Washington -4.51 0.4768 180
115 Texas Southern -4.64 0.4154 205
116 Davidson -4.70 0.7120 87
117 Fresno St. -4.71 0.6417 109
118 Oklahoma -4.76 0.7650 67
119 Mississippi St. -4.80 0.7021 89
120 Georgia St. -4.87 0.5820 126
121 New Mexico -4.90 0.6010 121
122 San Diego St. -4.92 0.7151 86
123 Towson -4.94 0.5756 128
124 La Salle -4.95 0.6084 118
125 North Dakota -5.02 0.5051 165
126 Temple -5.05 0.6503 105
127 South Dakota -5.09 0.5302 146
128 Rice -5.15 0.5537 136
129 New Orleans -5.19 0.4153 206
130 Texas -5.24 0.7648 68
131 St. John’s -5.24 0.6977 91
132 Wright St. -5.26 0.4882 176
133 Texas A&M Corpus Chris -5.27 0.3814 216
134 Fort Wayne -5.37 0.5755 129
135 Northern Kentucky -5.43 0.5047 166
136 Rutgers -5.54 0.6003 122
137 George Washington -5.56 0.5655 134
138 Tulsa -5.69 0.5672 132
139 Arizona St. -5.74 0.5706 131
140 William & Mary -5.81 0.5859 125
141 Weber St. -5.84 0.5046 167
142 Iona -5.87 0.5530 138
143 Northern Iowa -5.92 0.5144 158
144 Tennessee St. -5.93 0.4905 173
145 Ball St. -5.95 0.5165 157
146 Loyola Chicago -6.07 0.6848 95
147 Green Bay -6.09 0.5131 161
148 Tennessee Martin -6.13 0.3999 210
149 Sam Houston St. -6.17 0.3537 227
150 Georgia Southern -6.22 0.4884 175
151 Elon -6.23 0.5474 140
152 Lehigh -6.28 0.6123 117
153 New Hampshire -6.30 0.4972 170
154 Marshall -6.32 0.5318 145
155 UMBC -6.32 0.4398 193
156 Louisiana Lafayette -6.43 0.5327 144
157 Wyoming -6.60 0.5280 147
158 Washington St. -6.62 0.4305 195
159 Liberty -6.67 0.4225 201
160 Penn -6.78 0.5432 142
161 Albany -6.78 0.5502 139
162 Samford -6.79 0.5016 169
163 Nebraska Omaha -6.93 0.4426 189
164 Canisius -6.95 0.4871 177
165 San Jose St. -6.98 0.4218 202
166 Stony Brook -6.99 0.4154 204
167 Loyola Marymount -7.07 0.4898 174
168 Buffalo -7.11 0.5935 123
169 Lipscomb -7.21 0.5124 162
170 UAB -7.25 0.4768 179
171 Santa Clara -7.27 0.5868 124
172 UC Irvine -7.33 0.5439 141
173 Mount St. Mary’s -7.33 0.3902 214
174 Stephen F. Austin -7.36 0.3300 242
175 Saint Peter’s -7.38 0.6169 116
176 Kent St. -7.43 0.5225 153
177 Houston Baptist -7.45 0.3337 240
178 Alcorn St. -7.49 0.2074 298
179 Massachusetts -7.54 0.5596 135
180 Texas St. -7.55 0.4016 208
181 Southern Illinois -7.56 0.5062 164
182 Central Michigan -7.65 0.4233 199
183 LSU -7.65 0.4745 182
184 UC Davis -7.66 0.3713 218
185 UMKC -7.75 0.3533 228
186 Troy -7.77 0.5134 160
187 Denver -7.85 0.4936 172
188 Gardner Webb -7.90 0.4329 194
189 East Carolina -7.93 0.4236 198
190 Jacksonville St. -8.06 0.4176 203
191 LIU Brooklyn -8.08 0.2881 261
192 Coastal Carolina -8.14 0.4274 196
193 Boston University -8.26 0.4399 192
194 Missouri St. -8.29 0.5759 127
195 Northeastern -8.30 0.5264 149
196 Boston College -8.35 0.5537 137
197 Charlotte -8.39 0.3224 246
198 Long Beach St. -8.45 0.3617 222
199 Utah St. -8.50 0.5256 150
200 Toledo -8.52 0.5671 133
201 Morehead St. -8.65 0.4566 185
202 USC Upstate -8.72 0.3452 231
203 DePaul -8.79 0.4939 171
204 Evansville -8.81 0.5080 163
205 Western Michigan -8.83 0.4747 181
206 Fordham -8.87 0.4862 178
207 Fairfield -8.87 0.3876 215
208 Western Kentucky -8.87 0.3579 224
209 Saint Joseph’s -8.91 0.5276 148
210 Wofford -8.92 0.5170 156
211 Columbia -8.95 0.3933 212
212 Idaho -8.95 0.3539 226
213 Wagner -9.03 0.3471 229
214 Northern Illinois -9.03 0.4419 190
215 Eastern Michigan -9.10 0.5215 154
216 Loyola MD -9.14 0.3101 253
217 Washington -9.15 0.5186 155
218 Siena -9.19 0.4645 183
219 San Diego -9.26 0.3238 244
220 Holy Cross -9.42 0.3759 217
221 Lamar -9.46 0.3405 236
222 Norfolk St. -9.51 0.1901 308
223 Montana -9.51 0.4408 191
224 Rider -9.61 0.3912 213
225 Hawaii -9.67 0.3362 239
226 Cal St. Fullerton -9.72 0.2542 277
227 High Point -9.81 0.3002 257
228 Little Rock -9.85 0.3411 234
229 Mercer -9.93 0.5138 159
230 Murray St. -9.93 0.4554 186
231 South Alabama -10.01 0.3569 225
232 IUPUI -10.02 0.4228 200
233 Portland St. -10.10 0.3437 233
234 Jacksonville -10.10 0.2632 273
235 Cal St. Northridge -10.17 0.2921 260
236 Radford -10.24 0.2338 285
237 Seattle -10.33 0.2656 271
238 Navy -10.42 0.4006 209
239 Brown -10.47 0.2685 269
240 South Dakota St. -10.48 0.4271 197
241 Utah Valley -10.49 0.3581 223
242 Nicholls St. -10.59 0.1434 322
243 Hofstra -10.64 0.4529 188
244 Southeastern Louisiana -10.66 0.3195 250
245 Montana St. -10.68 0.3219 248
246 Eastern Illinois -10.69 0.3979 211
247 Indiana St. -10.72 0.4608 184
248 Southern -10.79 0.1657 316
249 UTEP -10.83 0.3700 219
250 Missouri -10.86 0.5231 152
251 Bowling Green -10.87 0.3217 249
252 Hampton -10.96 0.1758 311
253 UNLV -11.18 0.3270 243
254 Abilene Christian -11.23 0.1911 306
255 Illinois Chicago -11.25 0.3380 237
256 Morgan St. -11.28 0.1362 324
257 Pacific -11.35 0.3373 238
258 St. Francis PA -11.42 0.2753 267
259 Sacramento St. -11.52 0.2284 289
260 Savannah St. -11.53 0.1352 326
261 Bradley -11.56 0.3618 221
262 Duquesne -11.57 0.3673 220
263 Saint Louis -11.58 0.2421 281
264 Portland -11.58 0.2654 272
265 South Carolina St. -11.59 0.0950 337
266 Fairleigh Dickinson -11.60 0.2779 266
267 Southeast Missouri St. -11.62 0.3454 230
268 Campbell -11.63 0.2113 296
269 Incarnate Word -11.66 0.1870 309
270 Kennesaw St. -11.83 0.2958 258
271 UTSA -11.85 0.2321 287
272 Grambling St. -11.88 0.0978 336
273 North Florida -11.94 0.3038 255
274 Florida Atlantic -11.99 0.2933 259
275 Pepperdine -12.02 0.2266 290
276 Northern Colorado -12.05 0.2379 283
277 Delaware -12.07 0.2019 302
278 Air Force -12.07 0.4073 207
279 Tennessee Tech -12.17 0.3064 254
280 South Florida -12.27 0.2216 291
281 Prairie View A&M -12.29 0.1649 317
282 Appalachian St. -12.36 0.3130 251
283 Charleston Southern -12.56 0.2061 300
284 Western Illinois -12.58 0.2174 293
285 Army -12.58 0.3125 252
286 Cornell -12.63 0.2804 264
287 Jackson St. -12.65 0.1438 321
288 Maryland Eastern Shore -12.66 0.1705 315
289 Northwestern St. -12.70 0.1751 312
290 Sacred Heart -12.74 0.2094 297
291 Quinnipiac -12.94 0.2688 268
292 Robert Morris -12.99 0.2588 275
293 Dartmouth -13.03 0.2198 292
294 Austin Peay -13.17 0.2124 295
295 UC Riverside -13.20 0.2073 299
296 Bryant -13.25 0.2530 278
297 Eastern Kentucky -13.43 0.2569 276
298 Binghamton -13.69 0.1904 307
299 Miami OH -13.78 0.2447 280
300 Western Carolina -13.84 0.1343 327
301 McNeese St. -13.87 0.1357 325
302 UT Rio Grande Valley -13.93 0.2058 301
303 Cal Poly -13.93 0.1930 305
304 NJIT -14.03 0.2613 274
305 North Texas -14.13 0.1984 303
306 Youngstown St. -14.21 0.2132 294
307 Manhattan -14.30 0.2418 282
308 The Citadel -14.45 0.1721 314
309 Tulane -14.60 0.3231 245
310 Southern Miss -14.73 0.1185 332
311 Cleveland St. -14.73 0.3219 247
312 Alabama St. -14.79 0.0924 338
313 Drexel -14.84 0.3405 235
314 Colgate -14.86 0.2782 265
315 Louisiana Monroe -14.99 0.2660 270
316 Oral Roberts -15.03 0.3330 241
317 VMI -15.06 0.1511 319
318 Central Arkansas -15.09 0.1787 310
319 Stetson -15.30 0.1644 318
320 Oregon St. -15.35 0.2872 262
321 Drake -15.36 0.3003 256
322 Lafayette -15.43 0.1234 331
323 Howard -15.54 0.0906 341
324 Detroit -15.57 0.2308 288
325 Niagara -15.62 0.2870 263
326 Milwaukee -15.62 0.2495 279
327 Delaware St. -15.66 0.0987 335
328 James Madison -15.66 0.3440 232
329 UMass Lowell -15.71 0.2378 284
330 American -15.90 0.1956 304
331 UC Santa Barbara -15.98 0.1180 333
332 Idaho St. -16.02 0.1385 323
333 Chicago St. -16.13 0.0915 339
334 Coppin St. -16.14 0.0699 344
335 Marist -16.58 0.1737 313
336 Longwood -16.71 0.0630 347
337 Northern Arizona -16.91 0.1323 328
338 Hartford -16.93 0.1236 330
339 FIU -17.03 0.2327 286
340 Bethune Cookman -17.41 0.0835 342
341 Florida A&M -17.50 0.0718 343
342 Mississippi Valley St. -17.58 0.0681 345
343 Presbyterian -18.28 0.0418 350
344 Arkansas Pine Bluff -18.36 0.0617 348
345 Southern Utah -18.68 0.1277 329
346 Maine -18.74 0.1087 334
347 Central Connecticut -18.87 0.0910 340
348 SIU Edwardsville -19.23 0.1460 320
349 St. Francis NY -21.00 0.0650 346
350 Alabama A&M -21.28 0.0285 351
351 North Carolina A&T -22.57 0.0447 349

Resume or power rating? Should we use the former for selection, and the latter for seeding?

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/18724623

He suggests that selection should be based on Strength of Record “SOR or a similar metric that measures accomplishment on a game-by-game basis should be the metric of choice. That evaluation lands Maryland in the tournament, and the hypothetical winless team is out. (Editors note: The winless team is a Jeff Sagarin thought experiment about an elite team that goes winless against an incredibly difficult slate of road games.)

Seeding is a different decision, however. Once the field of 68 has been determined, the seeds should reflect the quality of the teams. We want the best teams to have the top seeds, which requires a predictive measure of team quality such as BPI (Sagarin, Ken Pomeroy and others have their own predictive rankings as well). Using BPI to seed the tournament right now gives Maryland a 9- or 10-seed.

This two-stage process allows teams to earn their way into the tournament without worrying about whether they win by “enough” to satisfy a metric that utilizes scoring margin, but also does not overseed a team just because a few close games happened to go its way.

The committee will consider this and other options over the next year before determining how best to revise the process, but in the end, in some fashion, the NCAA has to address the fundamental difference between best and most deserving.”

The committee has done a good job of conflating “best” and “most deserving”. Admittedly, there are times when they are clear, such as when they refer to the “eye test”. However, in general they refer to the total body-of-work, which I would expect to refer to a team’s resume (Who did you beat, where did you play them, who did you lose to, etc.). Their guideline specifically says to invite the 36 best at-large teams, based on results. As far as I can tell, the KenPom or BPI ratings would satisfy that requirement. Right now, the committee is clearly using both, for seeding, as well as selection. Hopefully, the future will offer some clarity on the subject.

I expect the winner of the Louisville-UNC game to jump into the top 4 of the WAB standings tomorrow. However, the only game that really matters is Duke-Syracuse. For one night, Syracuse is America’s team. Go Orange!

WAB Rank School WAB-AVG Pythag Pythag Rank
1 Kansas 9.43 0.9496 8
2 Villanova 8.87 0.9635 2
3 Baylor 7.16 0.9380 13
4 Gonzaga 7.14 0.9716 1
5 North Carolina 6.72 0.9579 5
6 Louisville 6.56 0.9569 6
7 Florida 6.38 0.9593 4
8 Duke 5.77 0.9442 10
9 Kentucky 5.75 0.9504 7
10 Arizona 5.71 0.9170 21
11 Wisconsin 5.35 0.9317 16
12 UCLA 5.03 0.9334 15
13 Cincinnati 5.00 0.9195 20
14 Purdue 4.80 0.9441 11
15 Oregon 4.70 0.9410 12
16 Florida St. 4.68 0.9250 18
17 Butler 4.64 0.9057 26
18 Maryland 4.60 0.8665 31
19 Notre Dame 4.55 0.9107 23
20 West Virginia 4.55 0.9610 3
21 Creighton 4.41 0.9095 24
22 SMU 3.83 0.9270 17
23 Virginia 3.40 0.9476 9
24 Saint Mary’s 3.21 0.9227 19
25 Oklahoma St. 3.19 0.9072 25
26 Iowa St. 3.13 0.9150 22
27 Wichita St. 3.09 0.9378 14
28 Virginia Tech 2.84 0.8259 47
29 Xavier 2.56 0.8588 36
30 Miami FL 2.43 0.8836 28
31 Minnesota 2.31 0.8572 38
32 USC 2.09 0.7864 61
33 South Carolina 2.03 0.8678 30
34 VCU 1.80 0.8446 41
35 Dayton 1.76 0.8658 32
36 Northwestern 1.75 0.8437 42
37 Arkansas 1.75 0.8238 50
38 Illinois St. 1.39 0.8160 54
39 Middle Tennessee 1.15 0.8241 49
40 Kansas St. 1.02 0.8796 29
41 TCU 0.66 0.8387 43
42 UNC Wilmington 0.52 0.7780 63
43 Vermont 0.51 0.7415 73
44 Monmouth 0.48 0.7205 84
45 Michigan St. 0.43 0.8199 52
46 Seton Hall 0.35 0.8009 57
47 Michigan 0.20 0.8880 27
48 Marquette 0.10 0.8644 33
49 Nevada -0.09 0.7660 66
50 California -0.16 0.8271 46
51 Wake Forest -0.23 0.8615 35
52 UT Arlington -0.26 0.7514 72
53 Belmont -0.28 0.7188 85
54 Texas Tech -0.54 0.8629 34
55 Clemson -0.61 0.8582 37
56 New Mexico St. -0.67 0.6568 102
57 Tennessee -0.70 0.8347 44
58 Valparaiso -0.76 0.6700 100
59 Providence -0.81 0.7992 58
60 Pittsburgh -0.87 0.7871 60
61 Auburn -0.91 0.7327 80
62 East Tennessee St. -0.96 0.7549 70
63 Akron -1.04 0.6538 105
64 Georgia -1.04 0.8200 51
65 Alabama -1.07 0.7982 59
66 Mississippi -1.16 0.7558 69
67 Princeton -1.26 0.7525 71
68 Rhode Island -1.32 0.8177 53
69 Syracuse -1.34 0.8339 45
70 Georgia Tech -1.35 0.7238 82
71 Houston -1.37 0.8453 39
72 Illinois -1.40 0.7744 64
73 Winthrop -1.46 0.6090 118
74 Georgetown -1.76 0.8242 48
75 Florida Gulf Coast -1.84 0.6255 111
76 UNC Asheville -1.84 0.6568 103
77 College of Charleston -2.08 0.6821 97
78 Boise St. -2.09 0.6865 93
79 Indiana -2.11 0.8449 40
80 Chattanooga -2.21 0.6558 104
81 Vanderbilt -2.29 0.8062 55
82 Memphis -2.45 0.7038 88
83 Arkansas St. -2.48 0.6218 112
84 Bucknell -2.53 0.6925 92
85 Cal St. Bakersfield -2.67 0.6365 110
86 Utah -2.68 0.8053 56
87 Ohio St. -2.70 0.7742 65
88 Texas A&M -2.77 0.7825 62
89 UNC Greensboro -2.83 0.5617 134
90 UCF -2.88 0.7370 77
91 Iowa -2.96 0.7396 75
92 North Carolina St. -3.03 0.6850 94
93 Nebraska -3.10 0.7355 78
94 Oakland -3.17 0.6198 113
95 Colorado St. -3.23 0.6929 91
96 Stanford -3.24 0.6725 99
97 Penn St. -3.27 0.7402 74
98 Harvard -3.29 0.6183 114
99 San Francisco -3.29 0.6466 108
100 Colorado -3.50 0.7376 76
101 North Carolina Central -3.52 0.5029 167
102 Furman -3.57 0.6426 109
103 Louisiana Tech -3.59 0.6836 95
104 BYU -3.67 0.7252 81
105 George Mason -3.82 0.6475 107
106 Connecticut -3.83 0.7227 83
107 Richmond -3.85 0.6681 101
108 Ohio -4.00 0.6767 98
109 St. Bonaventure -4.07 0.7125 86
110 San Diego St. -4.09 0.7350 79
111 Grand Canyon -4.14 0.4560 186
112 Yale -4.25 0.5256 151
113 Temple -4.33 0.6517 106
114 North Dakota St. -4.48 0.5441 144
115 Eastern Washington -4.50 0.4779 177
116 Old Dominion -4.50 0.6076 119
117 Texas Southern -4.64 0.4149 206
118 Davidson -4.71 0.7108 87
119 Oklahoma -4.80 0.7644 67
120 Mississippi St. -4.80 0.7024 89
121 Georgia St. -4.88 0.5812 127
122 New Mexico -4.92 0.6003 121
123 Towson -4.93 0.5753 129
124 La Salle -4.94 0.6090 117
125 North Dakota -4.99 0.5056 163
126 Rutgers -5.07 0.5944 122
127 South Dakota -5.08 0.5307 147
128 Northern Iowa -5.15 0.5448 142
129 Rice -5.16 0.5541 138
130 Fresno St. -5.19 0.6161 116
131 New Orleans -5.23 0.4144 207
132 Texas -5.27 0.7639 68
133 Wright St. -5.33 0.4876 174
134 St. John’s -5.33 0.6938 90
135 Fort Wayne -5.37 0.5758 128
136 Texas A&M Corpus Chris -5.38 0.3656 220
137 Northern Kentucky -5.44 0.5045 165
138 George Washington -5.55 0.5672 132
139 Tulsa -5.70 0.5673 131
140 Arizona St. -5.70 0.5743 130
141 William & Mary -5.79 0.5860 126
142 Weber St. -5.84 0.5042 166
143 Iona -5.90 0.5518 140
144 Tennessee St. -5.95 0.4903 171
145 Ball St. -5.97 0.5149 158
146 San Jose St. -6.06 0.4314 197
147 Loyola Chicago -6.08 0.6826 96
148 Green Bay -6.08 0.5135 159
149 Tennessee Martin -6.12 0.4019 208
150 Stony Brook -6.17 0.4332 194
151 Sam Houston St. -6.20 0.3520 227
152 Elon -6.21 0.5494 141
153 Georgia Southern -6.24 0.4876 173
154 Lehigh -6.27 0.6059 120
155 Albany -6.28 0.5589 135
156 Marshall -6.33 0.5317 146
157 UMBC -6.36 0.4279 199
158 New Hampshire -6.40 0.4875 175
159 UC Irvine -6.45 0.5537 139
160 Louisiana Lafayette -6.45 0.5321 145
161 Washington St. -6.61 0.4318 195
162 Wyoming -6.63 0.5278 149
163 Liberty -6.67 0.4246 201
164 Penn -6.75 0.5446 143
165 Denver -6.93 0.5023 168
166 Canisius -6.94 0.4875 176
167 Samford -6.96 0.4940 170
168 Loyola Marymount -7.10 0.4893 172
169 Buffalo -7.12 0.5928 123
170 Southern Illinois -7.15 0.4979 169
171 Nebraska Omaha -7.16 0.4350 192
172 Lipscomb -7.21 0.5121 161
173 UAB -7.26 0.4768 178
174 Santa Clara -7.30 0.5862 125
175 Stephen F. Austin -7.38 0.3292 242
176 Saint Peter’s -7.38 0.6168 115
177 Boston University -7.39 0.4569 185
178 Mount St. Mary’s -7.39 0.3878 213
179 Kent St. -7.45 0.5212 154
180 Houston Baptist -7.47 0.3330 241
181 Missouri St. -7.49 0.5912 124
182 Alcorn St. -7.49 0.2089 299
183 Texas St. -7.56 0.4011 209
184 Massachusetts -7.58 0.5584 136
185 Central Michigan -7.66 0.4229 204
186 UC Davis -7.67 0.3708 219
187 LSU -7.71 0.4732 180
188 UMKC -7.75 0.3539 226
189 Troy -7.78 0.5126 160
190 Gardner Webb -7.87 0.4350 193
191 East Carolina -7.96 0.4236 202
192 Jacksonville St. -8.02 0.4190 205
193 LIU Brooklyn -8.09 0.2881 261
194 Saint Joseph’s -8.14 0.5288 148
195 Coastal Carolina -8.15 0.4278 200
196 Loyola MD -8.25 0.3111 252
197 Northeastern -8.30 0.5268 150
198 Charlotte -8.38 0.3240 245
199 Boston College -8.38 0.5541 137
200 Long Beach St. -8.45 0.3626 221
201 Toledo -8.54 0.5656 133
202 Morehead St. -8.66 0.4570 184
203 USC Upstate -8.69 0.3469 229
204 Utah St. -8.70 0.5160 157
205 Evansville -8.79 0.5092 162
206 Western Michigan -8.83 0.4753 179
207 Fairfield -8.89 0.3876 214
208 Western Kentucky -8.89 0.3582 222
209 Columbia -8.92 0.3961 211
210 Idaho -8.95 0.3555 225
211 Wofford -8.99 0.5053 164
212 Wagner -9.06 0.3456 231
213 Fordham -9.07 0.4580 183
214 Mercer -9.08 0.5246 152
215 Northern Illinois -9.09 0.4402 190
216 Eastern Michigan -9.14 0.5204 155
217 Washington -9.16 0.5189 156
218 Siena -9.22 0.4640 182
219 San Diego -9.26 0.3244 243
220 DePaul -9.40 0.4678 181
221 Navy -9.43 0.4381 191
222 Holy Cross -9.48 0.3798 217
223 Montana -9.51 0.4422 189
224 Norfolk St. -9.56 0.1904 308
225 Lamar -9.57 0.3168 249
226 Rider -9.67 0.3852 216
227 Hawaii -9.68 0.3362 239
228 Cal St. Fullerton -9.81 0.2515 278
229 High Point -9.82 0.3023 256
230 Little Rock -9.85 0.3425 235
231 Murray St. -9.93 0.4549 187
232 South Alabama -10.01 0.3577 224
233 IUPUI -10.02 0.4236 203
234 Portland St. -10.09 0.3439 234
235 Jacksonville -10.11 0.2637 273
236 Cal St. Northridge -10.17 0.2928 260
237 Radford -10.23 0.2365 285
238 Abilene Christian -10.32 0.2046 302
239 UNLV -10.33 0.3498 228
240 Seattle -10.34 0.2662 272
241 South Dakota St. -10.45 0.4286 198
242 Brown -10.48 0.2701 268
243 Utah Valley -10.49 0.3580 223
244 Nicholls St. -10.60 0.1447 322
245 Hofstra -10.65 0.4539 188
246 Montana St. -10.68 0.3230 247
247 Duquesne -10.69 0.3931 212
248 Southeastern Louisiana -10.69 0.3123 251
249 Eastern Illinois -10.72 0.3967 210
250 Southern -10.79 0.1665 316
251 UTEP -10.83 0.3714 218
252 Indiana St. -10.86 0.4314 196
253 Bowling Green -10.88 0.3227 248
254 Missouri -10.90 0.5228 153
255 Hampton -10.94 0.1775 312
256 Saint Louis -11.24 0.2382 284
257 Illinois Chicago -11.27 0.3376 237
258 Morgan St. -11.28 0.1371 324
259 Pacific -11.38 0.3365 238
260 St. Francis PA -11.43 0.2760 267
261 Sacramento St. -11.50 0.2298 289
262 Savannah St. -11.52 0.1368 325
263 South Carolina St. -11.60 0.0959 337
264 Portland -11.60 0.2663 271
265 Campbell -11.63 0.2140 294
266 Southeast Missouri St. -11.63 0.3459 230
267 Fairleigh Dickinson -11.65 0.2772 266
268 Incarnate Word -11.67 0.1886 309
269 Bradley -11.72 0.3445 233
270 Northwestern St. -11.76 0.1924 307
271 Kennesaw St. -11.83 0.2968 258
272 UTSA -11.90 0.2309 288
273 Grambling St. -11.90 0.0986 336
274 North Florida -11.98 0.3047 254
275 Florida Atlantic -11.99 0.2943 259
276 Pepperdine -12.04 0.2273 290
277 Northern Colorado -12.08 0.2393 283
278 Delaware -12.09 0.2029 303
279 Air Force -12.13 0.3861 215
280 Tennessee Tech -12.16 0.3081 253
281 South Florida -12.30 0.2221 291
282 Prairie View A&M -12.32 0.1654 318
283 Appalachian St. -12.34 0.3138 250
284 Charleston Southern -12.54 0.2089 300
285 Western Illinois -12.57 0.2189 293
286 Cornell -12.63 0.2825 265
287 Jackson St. -12.64 0.1450 321
288 Army -12.65 0.3006 257
289 Maryland Eastern Shore -12.68 0.1708 315
290 Binghamton -12.75 0.1984 305
291 Sacred Heart -12.76 0.2100 297
292 Quinnipiac -12.98 0.2692 269
293 Robert Morris -13.01 0.2599 275
294 Dartmouth -13.04 0.2210 292
295 UC Riverside -13.17 0.2091 298
296 Austin Peay -13.19 0.2133 295
297 Bryant -13.24 0.2541 277
298 Eastern Kentucky -13.43 0.2577 276
299 The Citadel -13.48 0.1829 311
300 Manhattan -13.50 0.2447 282
301 Miami OH -13.79 0.2454 281
302 McNeese St. -13.88 0.1366 326
303 Western Carolina -13.91 0.1299 328
304 UT Rio Grande Valley -13.95 0.2055 301
305 Cal Poly -13.95 0.1932 306
306 NJIT -14.04 0.2628 274
307 Oral Roberts -14.12 0.3352 240
308 North Texas -14.14 0.1990 304
309 VMI -14.16 0.1622 319
310 Colgate -14.17 0.2874 262
311 Youngstown St. -14.17 0.2130 296
312 Central Arkansas -14.26 0.1855 310
313 Tulane -14.63 0.3242 244
314 Southern Miss -14.71 0.1196 332
315 Cleveland St. -14.73 0.3234 246
316 Alabama St. -14.76 0.0937 338
317 Drake -14.79 0.3044 255
318 Oregon St. -14.80 0.2870 263
319 UMass Lowell -14.81 0.2464 280
320 Lafayette -14.84 0.1290 330
321 Drexel -14.85 0.3417 236
322 Louisiana Monroe -14.98 0.2679 270
323 Stetson -15.31 0.1656 317
324 Howard -15.50 0.0915 341
325 Detroit -15.59 0.2313 287
326 Niagara -15.64 0.2867 264
327 Milwaukee -15.65 0.2499 279
328 James Madison -15.66 0.3449 232
329 Delaware St. -15.67 0.0996 335
330 UC Santa Barbara -15.98 0.1193 333
331 Idaho St. -16.03 0.1395 323
332 American -16.06 0.1739 314
333 Coppin St. -16.13 0.0706 344
334 Chicago St. -16.16 0.0919 339
335 Marist -16.59 0.1754 313
336 Longwood -16.69 0.0643 347
337 Northern Arizona -16.89 0.1344 327
338 Hartford -16.97 0.1211 331
339 FIU -17.04 0.2335 286
340 Bethune Cookman -17.43 0.0841 342
341 Florida A&M -17.52 0.0722 343
342 Mississippi Valley St. -17.58 0.0690 345
343 Presbyterian -18.24 0.0430 350
344 Arkansas Pine Bluff -18.36 0.0627 348
345 Southern Utah -18.67 0.1295 329
346 Maine -18.74 0.1101 334
347 North Carolina A&T -18.83 0.0452 349
348 Central Connecticut -18.88 0.0919 340
349 SIU Edwardsville -19.24 0.1467 320
350 St. Francis NY -21.02 0.0658 346
351 Alabama A&M -21.26 0.0291 351

I’ve never seen a team just go cold the way they have. I’m wondering if opponents have scouted them and are somehow keeping them away from the spots they like on the floor, but this effect is too extreme to not have a significant luck component.

In other news, Baylor is going to have play some serious ball to keep North Carolina or Louisville from surpassing them on the 1-line (as far as WAB goes).

Finally, I am working on hardwiring implied Pythag, but I still need to solve the problem of differentiating undefeated teams. Also, Arizona has the fourth best implied Pythag, which I find fascinating. They are barely a 2-seed IMHO, so I’m going to need to dig into that to discover what the story is.

These numbers are just from KenPom. I don’t have time to run the rest today.

WAB Rank School WAB Bubble Percentile Pythag
1 Kansas 9.22 100.00% 0.9442
2 Villanova 8.63 100.00% 0.9607
3 Gonzaga 7.06 100.00% 0.9771
4 Baylor 6.59 99.88% 0.9464
5 North Carolina 6.43 99.84% 0.9495
6 Louisville 6.32 99.82% 0.9564
7 Florida 5.83 99.58% 0.9573
8 Arizona 5.58 99.76% 0.9135
9 Duke 5.47 99.61% 0.9323
10 Kentucky 5.33 99.36% 0.9519
11 Wisconsin 4.98 99.02% 0.9353
12 Cincinnati 4.86 99.47% 0.9154
13 UCLA 4.77 99.32% 0.9155
14 Oregon 4.50 98.42% 0.9312
15 Butler 4.39 97.27% 0.8996
16 Florida St. 4.34 97.91% 0.9228
17 West Virginia 4.33 98.01% 0.9576
18 Maryland 4.28 97.79% 0.8638
19 Notre Dame 4.27 97.43% 0.897
20 Creighton 4.15 97.41% 0.9048
21 Purdue 4.09 97.41% 0.941
22 SMU 3.65 96.11% 0.929
23 Saint Mary’s 3.16 96.41% 0.927
24 Virginia 3.08 91.61% 0.9519
25 Oklahoma St. 2.97 91.65% 0.8989
26 Wichita St. 2.94 93.39% 0.9359
27 Iowa St. 2.88 90.67% 0.9063
28 Xavier 2.36 85.48% 0.8508
29 Virginia Tech 2.16 85.68% 0.817
30 Miami FL 2.09 84.12% 0.8777
31 Minnesota 2.09 82.70% 0.858
32 Northwestern 1.98 82.16% 0.8614
33 South Carolina 1.95 80.78% 0.8923
34 USC 1.84 81.48% 0.7771
35 VCU 1.80 79.54% 0.8441
36 Arkansas 1.62 77.80% 0.8099
37 Dayton 1.53 77.19% 0.8651
38 Illinois St. 1.35 74.45% 0.8307
39 Middle Tennessee 1.14 71.10% 0.8386
40 Kansas St. 0.82 65.34% 0.8817
41 UNC Wilmington 0.64 61.31% 0.7868
42 Vermont 0.57 60.79% 0.7543
43 TCU 0.49 59.16% 0.8386
44 Monmouth 0.37 56.68% 0.7074
45 Michigan St. 0.23 54.13% 0.8117
46 Seton Hall 0.16 52.92% 0.7932
47 Michigan -0.06 48.57% 0.8709
48 Nevada -0.12 46.27% 0.7466
49 Akron -0.25 42.33% 0.6509
50 UT Arlington -0.26 43.30% 0.7576
51 California -0.27 43.86% 0.8349
52 Belmont -0.28 42.02% 0.7139
53 Marquette -0.33 43.67% 0.8434
54 Clemson -0.38 43.16% 0.8454
55 Wake Forest -0.47 41.45% 0.8516
56 New Mexico St. -0.60 34.34% 0.668
57 Tennessee -0.70 37.16% 0.8386
58 Texas Tech -0.71 36.53% 0.8498
59 East Tennessee St. -0.79 32.80% 0.7896
60 Georgia Tech -0.80 35.24% 0.7521
61 Valparaiso -0.89 29.56% 0.6889
62 Providence -1.06 31.00% 0.7938
63 Georgia -1.12 30.50% 0.8252
64 Alabama -1.16 29.02% 0.7938
65 Pittsburgh -1.20 29.13% 0.7567
66 Auburn -1.29 27.73% 0.7029
67 Princeton -1.30 22.93% 0.7641
68 Houston -1.40 23.93% 0.8371
69 Winthrop -1.49 18.73% 0.6239
70 Syracuse -1.54 24.11% 0.8155
71 Mississippi -1.63 22.35% 0.7345
72 Rhode Island -1.80 18.79% 0.804
73 Florida Gulf Coast -1.81 14.84% 0.6225
74 UNC Asheville -1.82 15.04% 0.6749
75 Indiana -1.86 18.61% 0.8251
76 Chattanooga -1.96 15.23% 0.7044
77 College of Charleston -1.97 16.45% 0.7153
78 Illinois -2.00 17.94% 0.7435
79 Georgetown -2.03 18.22% 0.812
80 Boise St. -2.11 14.20% 0.6869
81 Vanderbilt -2.35 15.57% 0.7953
82 Arkansas St. -2.41 10.54% 0.6508
83 Bucknell -2.49 9.88% 0.7104
84 Memphis -2.54 10.61% 0.7043
85 UNC Greensboro -2.61 8.58% 0.5881
86 Cal St. Bakersfield -2.67 5.59% 0.6615
87 Ohio St. -2.87 9.65% 0.7624
88 Texas A&M -2.91 7.64% 0.7807
89 Utah -2.94 6.54% 0.8024
90 UCF -2.99 6.93% 0.7489
91 Oakland -3.17 3.96% 0.6146
92 Penn St. -3.18 7.77% 0.7239
93 San Francisco -3.29 3.99% 0.6552
94 Nebraska -3.33 6.79% 0.7281
95 Harvard -3.34 2.78% 0.6207
96 Furman -3.37 4.80% 0.655
97 Stanford -3.42 4.89% 0.6834
98 North Carolina Central -3.47 1.36% 0.547
99 Louisiana Tech -3.51 2.22% 0.6993
100 Iowa -3.55 4.99% 0.7212
101 Colorado St. -3.56 3.71% 0.6886
102 George Mason -3.65 3.68% 0.6426
103 BYU -3.70 3.33% 0.7171
104 Colorado -3.80 3.68% 0.7314
105 North Carolina St. -3.82 3.64% 0.6458
106 Connecticut -4.01 2.67% 0.7098
107 Mississippi St. -4.01 3.05% 0.694
108 San Diego St. -4.12 1.92% 0.7381
109 Ohio -4.13 1.39% 0.6655
110 St. Bonaventure -4.14 1.89% 0.7015
111 Grand Canyon -4.15 0.82% 0.4688
112 New Mexico -4.18 2.29% 0.6111
113 Richmond -4.18 2.56% 0.6531
114 Davidson -4.26 1.80% 0.7114
115 Yale -4.26 0.92% 0.5192
116 La Salle -4.37 1.70% 0.6138
117 Temple -4.47 1.81% 0.6363
118 Old Dominion -4.48 1.12% 0.6221
119 North Dakota St. -4.52 1.00% 0.5467
120 Eastern Washington -4.54 0.67% 0.4818
121 Wright St. -4.58 1.05% 0.4946
122 Texas Southern -4.58 0.41% 0.4227
123 Towson -4.84 0.98% 0.585
124 Oklahoma -4.87 1.13% 0.7419
125 Georgia St. -4.89 0.57% 0.5899
126 North Dakota -5.02 0.21% 0.4945
127 New Orleans -5.13 0.14% 0.4744
128 Rice -5.15 0.22% 0.5661
129 South Dakota -5.15 0.43% 0.5416
130 Rutgers -5.20 0.67% 0.5881
131 Texas A&M Corpus Chris -5.25 0.08% 0.386
132 St. John’s -5.26 0.82% 0.7032
133 Northern Iowa -5.27 0.65% 0.5501
134 Fresno St. -5.30 0.45% 0.6093
135 Fort Wayne -5.42 0.19% 0.542
136 Texas -5.49 0.73% 0.7538
137 Northern Kentucky -5.53 0.19% 0.5217
138 William & Mary -5.68 0.21% 0.5917
139 George Washington -5.69 0.46% 0.5482
140 Tulsa -5.74 0.42% 0.5667
141 Arizona St. -5.82 0.33% 0.5644
142 Weber St. -5.85 0.07% 0.4921
143 Iona -5.94 0.19% 0.5706
144 Sam Houston St. -6.03 0.03% 0.3605
145 Tennessee St. -6.04 0.09% 0.5171
146 Tennessee Martin -6.06 0.09% 0.4171
147 Loyola Chicago -6.10 0.17% 0.6773
148 San Jose St. -6.12 0.09% 0.4328
149 Ball St. -6.12 0.07% 0.4837
150 Stony Brook -6.15 0.07% 0.4275
151 Green Bay -6.15 0.08% 0.5028
152 Elon -6.16 0.18% 0.5719
153 Lehigh -6.20 0.11% 0.6229
154 Georgia Southern -6.25 0.11% 0.4947
155 Albany -6.29 0.05% 0.569
156 Marshall -6.31 0.08% 0.531
157 Louisiana Lafayette -6.32 0.06% 0.5234
158 UMBC -6.34 0.03% 0.4332
159 New Hampshire -6.39 0.03% 0.5055
160 Buffalo -6.41 0.08% 0.6147
161 UC Irvine -6.56 0.03% 0.5339
162 Liberty -6.67 0.02% 0.4256
163 Wyoming -6.71 0.08% 0.5335
164 Penn -6.77 0.02% 0.5392
165 Samford -6.78 0.02% 0.5343
166 Washington St. -6.81 0.08% 0.425
167 Canisius -6.86 0.05% 0.487
168 Central Michigan -6.89 0.03% 0.4401
169 Denver -6.97 0.03% 0.5132
170 LSU -7.07 0.08% 0.5053
171 Loyola Marymount -7.15 0.01% 0.4945
172 Southern Illinois -7.18 0.02% 0.5081
173 Lipscomb -7.26 0.01% 0.5027
174 UAB -7.27 0.02% 0.4568
175 Stephen F. Austin -7.29 0.00% 0.3485
176 Nebraska Omaha -7.30 0.02% 0.4322
177 Santa Clara -7.31 0.02% 0.5634
178 Boston University -7.38 0.01% 0.4668
179 Saint Peter’s -7.39 0.01% 0.628
180 Houston Baptist -7.39 0.00% 0.3662
181 Alcorn St. -7.41 0.00% 0.221
182 Mount St. Mary’s -7.44 0.01% 0.4054
183 Missouri St. -7.45 0.02% 0.5773
184 Texas St. -7.53 0.00% 0.4027
185 Toledo -7.69 0.02% 0.5719
186 Massachusetts -7.70 0.02% 0.5428
187 UMKC -7.75 0.00% 0.3714
188 Troy -7.79 0.01% 0.5078
189 UC Davis -7.80 0.00% 0.3597
190 Kent St. -7.85 0.01% 0.5055
191 Gardner Webb -7.88 0.00% 0.4285
192 Jacksonville St. -7.96 0.00% 0.4383
193 LIU Brooklyn -8.02 0.00% 0.2876
194 East Carolina -8.06 0.00% 0.403
195 Coastal Carolina -8.07 0.01% 0.4451
196 Fairfield -8.13 0.00% 0.4144
197 Loyola MD -8.21 0.00% 0.3281
198 Northeastern -8.21 0.01% 0.5427
199 Saint Joseph’s -8.29 0.01% 0.522
200 Charlotte -8.36 0.00% 0.3372
201 Eastern Michigan -8.56 0.00% 0.5246
202 Evansville -8.58 0.00% 0.5251
203 Morehead St. -8.63 0.00% 0.4556
204 Boston College -8.68 0.00% 0.5276
205 Wofford -8.68 0.00% 0.5158
206 USC Upstate -8.69 0.00% 0.3528
207 Long Beach St. -8.70 0.00% 0.3555
208 Utah St. -8.79 0.00% 0.5081
209 Western Kentucky -8.89 0.00% 0.3402
210 Mercer -8.93 0.00% 0.529
211 Columbia -8.95 0.00% 0.3821
212 Idaho -9.02 0.00% 0.348
213 Fordham -9.09 0.00% 0.4396
214 Wagner -9.10 0.00% 0.3449
215 Siena -9.15 0.00% 0.4648
216 Western Michigan -9.23 0.00% 0.4511
217 San Diego -9.32 0.00% 0.3082
218 Navy -9.33 0.00% 0.4392
219 Northern Illinois -9.36 0.00% 0.3866
220 Washington -9.36 0.00% 0.5
221 Holy Cross -9.42 0.00% 0.3935
222 Lamar -9.46 0.00% 0.3383
223 Norfolk St. -9.53 0.00% 0.1999
224 DePaul -9.59 0.00% 0.4479
225 Montana -9.63 0.00% 0.4281
226 Rider -9.71 0.00% 0.3921
227 Little Rock -9.79 0.00% 0.3342
228 Hawaii -9.80 0.00% 0.2686
229 High Point -9.83 0.00% 0.3002
230 Murray St. -9.90 0.00% 0.4557
231 Cal St. Fullerton -9.93 0.00% 0.2353
232 South Alabama -9.95 0.00% 0.3618
233 Jacksonville -10.09 0.00% 0.2665
234 Portland St. -10.11 0.00% 0.3532
235 IUPUI -10.12 0.00% 0.4299
236 Abilene Christian -10.18 0.00% 0.2338
237 Radford -10.23 0.00% 0.243
238 Seattle -10.30 0.00% 0.2556
239 Cal St. Northridge -10.31 0.00% 0.2685
240 Illinois Chicago -10.37 0.00% 0.3443
241 South Dakota St. -10.45 0.00% 0.4192
242 Utah Valley -10.45 0.00% 0.3721
243 UNLV -10.46 0.00% 0.3498
244 Nicholls St. -10.48 0.00% 0.1721
245 Hofstra -10.50 0.00% 0.4542
246 Brown -10.52 0.00% 0.2636
247 Southeastern Louisiana -10.54 0.00% 0.3357
248 Missouri -10.70 0.00% 0.5057
249 Montana St. -10.70 0.00% 0.3236
250 Eastern Illinois -10.70 0.00% 0.3982
251 Southern -10.76 0.00% 0.1761
252 UTEP -10.80 0.00% 0.369
253 Duquesne -10.85 0.00% 0.3877
254 Hampton -10.89 0.00% 0.1801
255 Indiana St. -10.95 0.00% 0.4104
256 Bowling Green -11.11 0.00% 0.2951
257 Morgan St. -11.30 0.00% 0.1436
258 Saint Louis -11.33 0.00% 0.2128
259 Pacific -11.46 0.00% 0.3039
260 St. Francis PA -11.48 0.00% 0.281
261 Savannah St. -11.52 0.00% 0.1587
262 Sacramento St. -11.55 0.00% 0.2205
263 South Carolina St. -11.55 0.00% 0.1081
264 Incarnate Word -11.57 0.00% 0.2113
265 Campbell -11.58 0.00% 0.1974
266 Portland -11.66 0.00% 0.2439
267 Fairleigh Dickinson -11.68 0.00% 0.2712
268 Southeast Missouri St. -11.69 0.00% 0.3696
269 Northwestern St. -11.69 0.00% 0.2138
270 Bradley -11.77 0.00% 0.3413
271 Kennesaw St. -11.87 0.00% 0.3157
272 UTSA -11.87 0.00% 0.2403
273 Grambling St. -11.88 0.00% 0.1059
274 Delaware -12.00 0.00% 0.2051
275 Florida Atlantic -12.00 0.00% 0.2934
276 North Florida -12.07 0.00% 0.2959
277 Tennessee Tech -12.09 0.00% 0.2852
278 Pepperdine -12.12 0.00% 0.2314
279 Northern Colorado -12.17 0.00% 0.2313
280 Air Force -12.20 0.00% 0.3809
281 Prairie View A&M -12.31 0.00% 0.1798
282 Appalachian St. -12.32 0.00% 0.3199
283 South Florida -12.35 0.00% 0.2133
284 Charleston Southern -12.52 0.00% 0.1992
285 Jackson St. -12.56 0.00% 0.1359
286 Western Illinois -12.59 0.00% 0.211
287 Army -12.62 0.00% 0.3138
288 Maryland Eastern Shore -12.68 0.00% 0.1866
289 Binghamton -12.68 0.00% 0.199
290 Cornell -12.70 0.00% 0.2834
291 Sacred Heart -12.80 0.00% 0.2034
292 Quinnipiac -12.92 0.00% 0.2672
293 Robert Morris -12.96 0.00% 0.2555
294 Dartmouth -13.04 0.00% 0.2085
295 Miami OH -13.06 0.00% 0.2377
296 Bryant -13.23 0.00% 0.2583
297 The Citadel -13.26 0.00% 0.2141
298 Austin Peay -13.28 0.00% 0.2191
299 UC Riverside -13.37 0.00% 0.1823
300 Eastern Kentucky -13.46 0.00% 0.2537
301 Manhattan -13.49 0.00% 0.237
302 Youngstown St. -13.57 0.00% 0.2292
303 Western Carolina -13.69 0.00% 0.1439
304 McNeese St. -13.77 0.00% 0.1657
305 Cleveland St. -13.79 0.00% 0.3439
306 Tulane -13.79 0.00% 0.3164
307 UT Rio Grande Valley -13.88 0.00% 0.2223
308 VMI -13.94 0.00% 0.163
309 NJIT -14.07 0.00% 0.2537
310 North Texas -14.08 0.00% 0.1957
311 Cal Poly -14.08 0.00% 0.1888
312 Central Arkansas -14.12 0.00% 0.2185
313 Colgate -14.18 0.00% 0.2849
314 Oral Roberts -14.26 0.00% 0.3357
315 Southern Miss -14.70 0.00% 0.1123
316 Alabama St. -14.73 0.00% 0.0896
317 Drexel -14.76 0.00% 0.3491
318 Lafayette -14.77 0.00% 0.1217
319 Drake -14.80 0.00% 0.31
320 UMass Lowell -14.84 0.00% 0.2466
321 Louisiana Monroe -14.88 0.00% 0.269
322 Milwaukee -15.03 0.00% 0.2437
323 Oregon St. -15.05 0.00% 0.2552
324 Stetson -15.36 0.00% 0.179
325 James Madison -15.51 0.00% 0.3399
326 Howard -15.54 0.00% 0.0902
327 Detroit -15.59 0.00% 0.2115
328 Niagara -15.64 0.00% 0.3064
329 Delaware St. -15.66 0.00% 0.1031
330 American -15.99 0.00% 0.1564
331 Coppin St. -16.08 0.00% 0.0853
332 Idaho St. -16.10 0.00% 0.1395
333 Chicago St. -16.10 0.00% 0.0972
334 UC Santa Barbara -16.14 0.00% 0.0892
335 Marist -16.57 0.00% 0.1743
336 Longwood -16.73 0.00% 0.0594
337 FIU -16.93 0.00% 0.2355
338 Northern Arizona -16.93 0.00% 0.1287
339 Hartford -16.96 0.00% 0.1175
340 Bethune Cookman -17.30 0.00% 0.095
341 Florida A&M -17.43 0.00% 0.0865
342 Mississippi Valley St. -17.63 0.00% 0.0717
343 Presbyterian -18.21 0.00% 0.0362
344 Arkansas Pine Bluff -18.40 0.00% 0.0632
345 Southern Utah -18.72 0.00% 0.1265
346 Maine -18.73 0.00% 0.1021
347 Central Connecticut -18.93 0.00% 0.0909
348 SIU Edwardsville -19.29 0.00% 0.1476
349 St. Francis NY -21.04 0.00% 0.0585
350 Alabama A&M -21.33 0.00% 0.0291
351 North Carolina A&T -22.55 0.00% 0.0459

WAB: Wins Above Bubble. It is the amount of wins a team has minus the amount of wins an average bubble squad would expect vs. their schedule.

Pythag: The expecting win percentage against an average D1 team.

It pains me to compare Wichita State to Syracuse right now, but I must. Here is Jerry Palm’s most recent bracket:

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

Both Wichita State and Syracuse are in the first four out. Across six ratings systems (KenPom, Sagarin, BPI, Massey, Matchup Zone, Dolphin), Wichita State is the 14th best team in the country, with the 26th best resume. Syracuse is the 45th best in the country, with the 68th best resume. Any system that puts these teams on the same level is flawed. Remember, this isn’t about Palm. He’s just predicting the committee.

I’m trying to find a way to solve for implied Pythag (right now I actually have to do each team individually). If I can figure out a way to code that, it will be enlightening to see how difficult it is to replicate each team’s accomplishments.

Full WAB listings are here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hof8DT8OCt_9A-f93NnXnSfMdp97B1qvmQ8Hw_X3X8Y/edit#gid=0

WAB Rank School WAB-AVG Pythag Pythag Rank
1 Kansas 9.32 0.9504 9
2 Villanova 8.79 0.9641 2
3 Gonzaga 7.03 0.9719 1
4 Baylor 6.77 0.9405 13
5 North Carolina 6.62 0.9583 4
6 Louisville 6.49 0.9577 6
7 Florida 5.78 0.9583 5
8 Duke 5.62 0.9448 11
9 Arizona 5.60 0.9178 21
10 Kentucky 5.36 0.9525 8
11 Wisconsin 5.25 0.9326 16
12 UCLA 4.93 0.9337 15
13 Cincinnati 4.88 0.9197 20
14 Oregon 4.58 0.9418 12
15 Butler 4.57 0.9073 26
16 Notre Dame 4.46 0.9119 23
17 Maryland 4.43 0.8671 31
18 Florida St. 4.42 0.9221 19
19 Creighton 4.32 0.9108 24
20 Purdue 4.19 0.9463 10
21 West Virginia 4.15 0.9617 3
22 Virginia 3.86 0.9527 7
23 SMU 3.71 0.9277 17
24 Saint Mary’s 3.09 0.9228 18
25 Oklahoma St. 3.06 0.9078 25
26 Wichita St. 2.87 0.9379 14
27 Xavier 2.48 0.8606 35
28 Virginia Tech 2.37 0.8275 47
29 Iowa St. 2.29 0.9145 22
30 Minnesota 2.19 0.8581 39
31 Northwestern 2.10 0.8605 36
32 South Carolina 1.99 0.8714 29
33 USC 1.99 0.7869 61
34 VCU 1.70 0.8462 41
35 Arkansas 1.64 0.8250 49
36 Dayton 1.52 0.8654 32
37 Miami FL 1.45 0.8712 30
38 Illinois St. 1.29 0.8172 53
39 Middle Tennessee 1.05 0.8257 48
40 Kansas St. 0.89 0.8799 28
41 TCU 0.53 0.8386 43
42 Vermont 0.44 0.7436 72
43 UNC Wilmington 0.42 0.7792 63
44 Michigan St. 0.38 0.8223 51
45 Seton Hall 0.25 0.8025 57
46 Monmouth 0.24 0.7053 89
47 Michigan 0.03 0.8881 27
48 Nevada -0.17 0.7677 65
49 Marquette -0.17 0.8586 38
50 Texas Tech -0.21 0.8641 33
51 California -0.24 0.8286 46
52 Akron -0.27 0.6666 100
53 Clemson -0.31 0.8592 37
54 Wake Forest -0.33 0.8632 34
55 Belmont -0.38 0.7158 84
56 UT Arlington -0.60 0.7428 73
57 Georgia Tech -0.65 0.7331 79
58 New Mexico St. -0.74 0.6577 103
59 Tennessee -0.82 0.8354 44
60 Providence -0.89 0.8010 58
61 Valparaiso -0.91 0.6810 96
62 Pittsburgh -1.00 0.7878 60
63 East Tennessee St. -1.05 0.7556 68
64 Alabama -1.19 0.7980 59
65 Georgia -1.20 0.8194 52
66 Auburn -1.28 0.7108 86
67 Princeton -1.35 0.7525 70
68 Syracuse -1.45 0.8351 45
69 Houston -1.47 0.8459 42
70 Winthrop -1.58 0.6082 119
71 Indiana -1.66 0.8523 40
72 Mississippi -1.73 0.7504 71
73 Rhode Island -1.75 0.8103 54
74 Georgetown -1.87 0.8249 50
75 Illinois -1.88 0.7532 69
76 Florida Gulf Coast -1.90 0.6271 111
77 UNC Asheville -1.94 0.6572 104
78 College of Charleston -2.17 0.6840 94
79 Boise St. -2.20 0.6867 92
80 Chattanooga -2.31 0.6559 105
81 Vanderbilt -2.44 0.8061 55
82 Arkansas St. -2.58 0.6223 112
83 Memphis -2.59 0.7033 90
84 Bucknell -2.59 0.6948 91
85 Cal St. Bakersfield -2.74 0.6374 110
86 Utah -2.78 0.8060 56
87 Ohio St. -2.79 0.7765 64
88 Texas A&M -2.86 0.7837 62
89 UNC Greensboro -2.90 0.5618 135
90 UCF -2.98 0.7374 76
91 Penn St. -3.00 0.7350 78
92 Nebraska -3.15 0.7378 74
93 Oakland -3.26 0.6053 122
94 Harvard -3.35 0.6203 115
95 San Francisco -3.38 0.6462 108
96 Stanford -3.38 0.6708 99
97 Iowa -3.43 0.7326 80
98 North Carolina Central -3.60 0.5111 160
99 George Mason -3.63 0.6502 107
100 Colorado -3.63 0.7375 75
101 Louisiana Tech -3.65 0.6846 93
102 North Carolina St. -3.65 0.6745 97
103 Colorado St. -3.66 0.6740 98
104 Furman -3.68 0.6432 109
105 BYU -3.80 0.7246 81
106 Connecticut -3.96 0.7223 82
107 Richmond -4.15 0.6600 102
108 St. Bonaventure -4.15 0.7137 85
109 Ohio -4.16 0.6648 101
110 San Diego St. -4.19 0.7367 77
111 Mississippi St. -4.19 0.7097 87
112 Grand Canyon -4.21 0.4561 186
113 Davidson -4.21 0.7199 83
114 New Mexico -4.25 0.6205 114
115 Yale -4.29 0.5265 151
116 La Salle -4.36 0.6222 113
117 Temple -4.44 0.6515 106
118 Eastern Washington -4.56 0.4779 178
119 North Dakota St. -4.57 0.5438 144
120 Old Dominion -4.59 0.6077 121
121 Texas Southern -4.69 0.4045 208
122 Wright St. -4.72 0.4931 172
123 Oklahoma -4.77 0.7559 67
124 Towson -5.02 0.5758 129
125 Georgia St. -5.04 0.5655 133
126 North Dakota -5.07 0.5056 163
127 St. John’s -5.10 0.7078 88
128 Rutgers -5.15 0.5956 123
129 South Dakota -5.19 0.5293 148
130 Rice -5.23 0.5548 138
131 New Orleans -5.26 0.4154 206
132 Northern Iowa -5.27 0.5443 143
133 Texas -5.30 0.7610 66
134 Fresno St. -5.30 0.6153 118
135 Texas A&M Corpus Chris -5.42 0.3663 221
136 Fort Wayne -5.44 0.5765 128
137 Georgia Southern -5.57 0.5013 167
138 Northern Kentucky -5.64 0.4969 171
139 George Washington -5.71 0.5664 132
140 Arizona St. -5.79 0.5747 130
141 Tulsa -5.82 0.5673 131
142 William & Mary -5.87 0.5878 125
143 Weber St. -5.90 0.5050 164
144 Iona -6.00 0.5533 140
145 Tennessee St. -6.05 0.4899 174
146 Ball St. -6.13 0.5082 161
147 San Jose St. -6.17 0.4282 198
148 Loyola Chicago -6.17 0.6839 95
149 Tennessee Martin -6.21 0.4006 209
150 Stony Brook -6.24 0.4338 194
151 Sam Houston St. -6.26 0.3528 227
152 Green Bay -6.27 0.5070 162
153 Buffalo -6.30 0.6168 117
154 Elon -6.32 0.5479 141
155 Lehigh -6.34 0.6080 120
156 Albany -6.36 0.5600 136
157 Marshall -6.40 0.5321 146
158 UMBC -6.44 0.4283 197
159 New Hampshire -6.47 0.4885 176
160 UC Irvine -6.53 0.5535 139
161 Louisiana Lafayette -6.55 0.5331 145
162 Washington St. -6.72 0.4306 195
163 Wyoming -6.73 0.5273 149
164 Liberty -6.74 0.4247 200
165 Penn -6.84 0.5460 142
166 Central Michigan -6.88 0.4600 182
167 Texas St. -6.95 0.4174 204
168 Denver -7.02 0.5025 166
169 Canisius -7.02 0.4889 175
170 Samford -7.06 0.4929 173
171 LSU -7.09 0.4983 169
172 Loyola Marymount -7.23 0.4866 177
173 Southern Illinois -7.25 0.4976 170
174 Nebraska Omaha -7.27 0.4339 193
175 Lipscomb -7.31 0.5114 159
176 UAB -7.38 0.4759 179
177 Santa Clara -7.40 0.5861 126
178 Stephen F. Austin -7.44 0.3291 243
179 Saint Peter’s -7.48 0.6177 116
180 Boston University -7.49 0.4585 184
181 Mount St. Mary’s -7.49 0.3882 214
182 Houston Baptist -7.49 0.3342 240
183 Alcorn St. -7.56 0.2106 298
184 Missouri St. -7.58 0.5930 124
185 Massachusetts -7.71 0.5578 137
186 UC Davis -7.76 0.3699 219
187 Toledo -7.77 0.5814 127
188 UMKC -7.82 0.3530 226
189 Kent St. -7.86 0.4992 168
190 Troy -7.92 0.5122 158
191 Gardner Webb -7.94 0.4354 192
192 Jacksonville St. -8.13 0.4177 202
193 LIU Brooklyn -8.13 0.2883 261
194 East Carolina -8.17 0.4176 203
195 Fairfield -8.21 0.4067 207
196 Saint Joseph’s -8.26 0.5298 147
197 Boston College -8.30 0.5647 134
198 Loyola MD -8.31 0.3112 251
199 Northeastern -8.42 0.5263 152
200 Coastal Carolina -8.44 0.4172 205
201 Charlotte -8.46 0.3233 245
202 Eastern Michigan -8.51 0.5267 150
203 Long Beach St. -8.55 0.3614 222
204 Norfolk St. -8.64 0.2068 301
205 Evansville -8.72 0.5132 157
206 Morehead St. -8.75 0.4559 187
207 Utah St. -8.80 0.5157 155
208 USC Upstate -8.80 0.3455 229
209 Western Kentucky -9.01 0.3570 224
210 Columbia -9.02 0.3956 212
211 Idaho -9.05 0.3542 225
212 Wofford -9.12 0.5045 165
213 Wagner -9.13 0.3453 230
214 Fordham -9.15 0.4587 183
215 South Alabama -9.18 0.3681 220
216 Mercer -9.18 0.5248 153
217 Western Michigan -9.20 0.4584 185
218 Washington -9.27 0.5178 154
219 Siena -9.31 0.4649 181
220 Northern Illinois -9.36 0.3987 210
221 San Diego -9.36 0.3223 247
222 DePaul -9.46 0.4689 180
223 Navy -9.50 0.4383 191
224 Holy Cross -9.59 0.3796 217
225 Montana -9.62 0.4413 190
226 Lamar -9.63 0.3161 249
227 Hawaii -9.74 0.3370 238
228 Rider -9.79 0.3855 215
229 Cal St. Fullerton -9.88 0.2499 279
230 High Point -9.90 0.3006 256
231 Little Rock -9.92 0.3429 235
232 Murray St. -10.04 0.4536 189
233 IUPUI -10.13 0.4231 201
234 Portland St. -10.16 0.3436 234
235 Jacksonville -10.17 0.2628 272
236 Cal St. Northridge -10.22 0.2910 260
237 Radford -10.29 0.2355 285
238 Abilene Christian -10.37 0.2041 303
239 Seattle -10.40 0.2666 271
240 UNLV -10.43 0.3489 228
241 Illinois Chicago -10.49 0.3448 231
242 South Dakota St. -10.57 0.4277 199
243 Brown -10.57 0.2689 268
244 Utah Valley -10.57 0.3580 223
245 Savannah St. -10.59 0.1449 321
246 Nicholls St. -10.68 0.1435 323
247 Missouri -10.71 0.5137 156
248 Hofstra -10.74 0.4538 188
249 Montana St. -10.75 0.3228 246
250 Southeastern Louisiana -10.76 0.3128 250
251 Duquesne -10.79 0.3922 213
252 Eastern Illinois -10.81 0.3960 211
253 Southern -10.84 0.1668 316
254 UTEP -10.89 0.3707 218
255 Indiana St. -11.01 0.4289 196
256 Hampton -11.01 0.1727 314
257 Bowling Green -11.15 0.3087 252
258 Saint Louis -11.34 0.2369 284
259 Morgan St. -11.38 0.1261 330
260 Pacific -11.49 0.3347 239
261 St. Francis PA -11.50 0.2755 267
262 Sacramento St. -11.58 0.2286 288
263 Appalachian St. -11.70 0.3184 248
264 Campbell -11.70 0.2123 296
265 South Carolina St. -11.70 0.0946 337
266 Portland -11.71 0.2620 273
267 Fairleigh Dickinson -11.72 0.2768 266
268 Incarnate Word -11.73 0.1872 309
269 Southeast Missouri St. -11.75 0.3447 232
270 Northwestern St. -11.84 0.1911 308
271 Bradley -11.86 0.3428 236
272 Kennesaw St. -11.93 0.2943 258
273 Grambling St. -11.96 0.0981 336
274 UTSA -11.97 0.2305 287
275 Florida Atlantic -12.08 0.2934 259
276 North Florida -12.13 0.3031 255
277 Pepperdine -12.14 0.2265 289
278 Delaware -12.17 0.2021 304
279 Northern Colorado -12.19 0.2380 283
280 Air Force -12.24 0.3853 216
281 Tennessee Tech -12.24 0.3077 253
282 Prairie View A&M -12.39 0.1599 319
283 South Florida -12.41 0.2191 293
284 Charleston Southern -12.62 0.2076 300
285 Western Illinois -12.64 0.2178 294
286 Jackson St. -12.69 0.1445 322
287 Army -12.73 0.3006 257
288 Cornell -12.74 0.2811 265
289 Maryland Eastern Shore -12.76 0.1724 315
290 Sacred Heart -12.80 0.2106 297
291 Binghamton -12.80 0.1988 305
292 Miami OH -13.06 0.2521 278
293 Robert Morris -13.08 0.2598 275
294 Quinnipiac -13.08 0.2688 269
295 Dartmouth -13.12 0.2208 291
296 UC Riverside -13.25 0.2078 299
297 Austin Peay -13.28 0.2125 295
298 Bryant -13.29 0.2537 277
299 Eastern Kentucky -13.58 0.2566 276
300 The Citadel -13.58 0.1819 311
301 Manhattan -13.62 0.2434 281
302 Youngstown St. -13.64 0.2223 290
303 Tulane -13.80 0.3284 244
304 Alabama St. -13.90 0.0933 338
305 McNeese St. -13.94 0.1365 325
306 Cleveland St. -13.96 0.3327 242
307 UT Rio Grande Valley -14.04 0.2047 302
308 Western Carolina -14.05 0.1288 327
309 Cal Poly -14.06 0.1917 307
310 NJIT -14.16 0.2612 274
311 North Texas -14.22 0.1984 306
312 Colgate -14.26 0.2875 262
313 VMI -14.26 0.1609 318
314 Oral Roberts -14.26 0.3337 241
315 Central Arkansas -14.35 0.1846 310
316 Howard -14.69 0.0888 341
317 Delaware St. -14.73 0.1070 335
318 Southern Miss -14.77 0.1192 332
319 UMass Lowell -14.88 0.2462 280
320 Drake -14.89 0.3041 254
321 Lafayette -14.91 0.1284 328
322 Oregon St. -14.92 0.2848 264
323 Drexel -14.96 0.3414 237
324 Louisiana Monroe -15.08 0.2672 270
325 Milwaukee -15.18 0.2406 282
326 Stetson -15.41 0.1639 317
327 Niagara -15.76 0.2874 263
328 Detroit -15.76 0.2200 292
329 James Madison -15.78 0.3442 233
330 UC Santa Barbara -16.06 0.1180 333
331 Idaho St. -16.10 0.1388 324
332 American -16.11 0.1733 313
333 Chicago St. -16.20 0.0921 339
334 Coppin St. -16.22 0.0664 345
335 Florida A&M -16.58 0.0738 343
336 Marist -16.70 0.1745 312
337 Longwood -16.77 0.0635 348
338 Mississippi Valley St. -16.81 0.0730 344
339 Northern Arizona -16.97 0.1331 326
340 Hartford -17.03 0.1207 331
341 FIU -17.11 0.2327 286
342 Arkansas Pine Bluff -17.46 0.0660 346
343 Bethune Cookman -17.48 0.0768 342
344 Presbyterian -18.32 0.0424 350
345 Southern Utah -18.77 0.1281 329
346 Maine -18.80 0.1095 334
347 Central Connecticut -18.95 0.0912 340
348 SIU Edwardsville -19.34 0.1457 320
349 Alabama A&M -20.45 0.0289 351
350 St. Francis NY -21.08 0.0653 347
351 North Carolina A&T -21.55 0.0437 349

Below are the KenPom WAB’s from today and Yesterday. With Baylor’s loss at home to Kansas, North Carolina was able to significantly close the gap. Duke jumping up .41 wasn’t entirely due to beating Wake Forest. Their previous opponents have seen their stock rise. Maryland didn’t play yesterday and they saw their WAB rise a tad.

Florida State saw their WAB tumble with the loss to Pittsburgh. Virginia saw their WAB drop a bit with the loss at UNC. Remember, a win is a win and a loss is a loss. The fact that they looked outclassed isn’t relevant.

Michigan State and Seton Hall missed opportunities to pick up huge wins. However, in neither case is the loss fatal as both are still above the Mendoza-line.

I’ll look at this collective WAB average tomorrow as Sagarin does not update on Sundays.

WAB Rank School WAB-KP 2/19 School WAB-KP 2/18 Change
1 Kansas 9.15 Kansas 8.28 0.87
2 Villanova 8.54 Villanova 7.99 0.55
3 Gonzaga 6.97 Gonzaga 6.9 0.07
4 Baylor 6.52 Baylor 6.93 -0.41
5 North Carolina 6.31 North Carolina 5.6 0.71
6 Louisville 6.23 Louisville 5.9 0.33
7 Florida 5.66 Florida 5.3 0.36
8 Arizona 5.51 Arizona 5.27 0.24
9 Duke 5.33 Duke 4.92 0.41
10 Kentucky 5.22 Kentucky 4.57 0.65
11 Cincinnati 4.76 Cincinnati 4.64 0.12
12 UCLA 4.71 UCLA 4.42 0.29
13 Wisconsin 4.49 Wisconsin 4.37 0.12
14 Oregon 4.44 Oregon 4.2 0.24
15 Maryland 4.37 Maryland 4.33 0.04
16 Butler 4.24 Butler 4.19 0.05
17 Notre Dame 4.16 Notre Dame 3.91 0.25
18 Florida St. 4.13 Florida St. 4.65 -0.52
19 West Virginia 4.03 West Virginia 3.62 0.41
20 Purdue 3.99 Purdue 3.71 0.28
21 Creighton 3.77 Creighton 3.79 -0.02
22 Virginia 3.6 Virginia 3.77 -0.17
23 SMU 3.55 SMU 2.94 0.61
24 Saint Mary’s 3.07 Saint Mary’s 2.61 0.46
25 Oklahoma St. 2.92 Oklahoma St. 2.63 0.29
26 Wichita St. 2.86 Wichita St. 2.79 0.07
27 Xavier 2.3 Xavier 2.72 -0.42
28 Iowa St. 2.14 Iowa St. 1.75 0.39
29 Virginia Tech 2.09 Virginia Tech 2.24 -0.15
30 Northwestern 1.88 Northwestern 1.72 0.16
31 South Carolina 1.85 South Carolina 2.33 -0.48
32 USC 1.79 USC 1.93 -0.14
33 VCU 1.64 VCU 1.59 0.05
34 Minnesota 1.55 Minnesota 1.55 0.00
35 Arkansas 1.51 Arkansas 1.25 0.26
36 Dayton 1.42 Dayton 1.16 0.26
37 Miami FL 1.1 Miami FL 0.72 0.38
38 Illinois St. 1.06 Illinois St. 1.11 -0.05
39 Middle Tennessee 1.03 Middle Tennessee 0.76 0.27
40 Kansas St. 0.76 Kansas St. 0.23 0.53
41 UNC Wilmington 0.54 UNC Wilmington 0.25 0.29
42 Vermont 0.53 Vermont 0.56 -0.03
43 TCU 0.44 TCU 0.68 -0.24
44 Monmouth 0.27 Monmouth 0.25 0.02
45 Michigan 0.18 Michigan 0.12 0.06
46 Michigan St. 0.14 Michigan St. 0.32 -0.18
47 Seton Hall 0.1 Seton Hall 0.34 -0.24
48 Nevada -0.17 Nevada -0.31 0.14
49 Texas Tech -0.29 Texas Tech -0.14 -0.15
50 California -0.32 California -0.24 -0.08
51 Akron -0.33 Akron -0.34 0.01
52 Belmont -0.38 Belmont -0.45 0.07
53 Marquette -0.39 Marquette -0.82 0.43
54 Clemson -0.5 Clemson -0.15 -0.35
55 UT Arlington -0.6 UT Arlington -0.98 0.38
56 Wake Forest -0.61 Wake Forest -0.44 -0.17
57 New Mexico St. -0.67 New Mexico St. -0.76 0.09
58 Tennessee -0.8 Tennessee -0.95 0.15
59 East Tennessee St. -0.89 East Tennessee St. -1.32 0.43
60 Valparaiso -1.05 Valparaiso -1.07 0.02
61 Providence -1.09 Providence -1.04 -0.05
62 Syracuse -1.13 Syracuse -1.11 -0.02
63 Georgia Tech -1.22 Georgia Tech -1.17 -0.05
64 Georgia -1.24 Georgia -0.9 -0.34
65 Pittsburgh -1.25 Pittsburgh -1.79 0.54
66 Alabama -1.27 Alabama -1.36 0.09
67 Auburn -1.39 Auburn -0.92 -0.47
68 Princeton -1.41 Princeton -1.49 0.08
69 Houston -1.5 Houston -1.09 -0.41
70 Winthrop -1.59 Winthrop -1.62 0.03
71 Mississippi -1.74 Mississippi -1.28 -0.46
72 Georgetown -1.85 Georgetown -1.88 0.03
73 Florida Gulf Coast -1.89 Florida Gulf Coast -2.04 0.15
74 Rhode Island -1.92 Rhode Island -2.28 0.36
75 UNC Asheville -1.92 UNC Asheville -1.96 0.04
76 Indiana -1.93 Indiana -1.98 0.05
77 Chattanooga -2.05 Chattanooga -1.38 -0.67
78 College of Charleston -2.08 College of Charleston -2.37 0.29
79 Illinois -2.09 Illinois -2.51 0.42
80 Utah -2.09 Utah -2.12 0.03
81 Boise St. -2.19 Boise St. -2.37 0.18
82 Vanderbilt -2.48 Vanderbilt -3 0.52
83 Arkansas St. -2.51 Arkansas St. -2.47 -0.04
84 Memphis -2.64 Memphis -2.58 -0.06
85 UNC Greensboro -2.66 UNC Greensboro -2.98 0.32
86 Cal St. Bakersfield -2.74 Cal St. Bakersfield -2.82 0.08
87 Bucknell -2.83 Bucknell -2.89 0.06
88 Ohio St. -2.94 Ohio St. -2.16 -0.78
89 Texas A&M -2.98 Texas A&M -3.21 0.23
90 UCF -3.11 UCF -3.3 0.19
91 Oakland -3.32 Oakland -3.31 -0.01
92 Penn St. -3.32 Penn St. -3.38 0.06
93 San Francisco -3.34 San Francisco -3.41 0.07
94 Harvard -3.39 Harvard -3.4 0.01
95 Nebraska -3.42 Nebraska -3.92 0.50
96 Yale -3.46 Yale -3.49 0.03
97 Furman -3.47 Furman -2.6 -0.87
98 Stanford -3.51 Stanford -3.48 -0.03
99 Louisiana Tech -3.56 Louisiana Tech -3.61 0.05
100 North Carolina Central -3.56 North Carolina Central -3.6 0.04
101 Iowa -3.62 Iowa -2.85 -0.77
102 Colorado St. -3.65 Colorado St. -3.67 0.02
103 Temple -3.78 Temple -3.76 -0.02
104 BYU -3.81 BYU -3.38 -0.43
105 George Mason -3.81 George Mason -3.11 -0.70
106 Colorado -3.85 Colorado -3.66 -0.19
107 North Carolina St. -3.99 North Carolina St. -3.51 -0.48
108 Mississippi St. -4.13 Mississippi St. -3.86 -0.27
109 Grand Canyon -4.21 Grand Canyon -4.31 0.10
110 Ohio -4.22 Ohio -4.24 0.02
111 New Mexico -4.25 New Mexico -3.57 -0.68
112 St. Bonaventure -4.25 St. Bonaventure -3.91 -0.34
113 San Diego St. -4.26 San Diego St. -4.27 0.01
114 Richmond -4.33 Richmond -4.36 0.03
115 Davidson -4.39 Davidson -4.7 0.31
116 Connecticut -4.42 Connecticut -4.38 -0.04
117 La Salle -4.52 La Salle -4.64 0.12
118 Old Dominion -4.58 Old Dominion -4.59 0.01
119 Eastern Washington -4.59 Eastern Washington -4.51 -0.08
120 North Dakota St. -4.6 North Dakota St. -4.66 0.06
121 Texas Southern -4.67 Texas Southern -4.63 -0.04
122 Wright St. -4.71 Wright St. -4.86 0.15
123 Towson -4.89 Towson -4.97 0.08
124 Oklahoma -4.94 Oklahoma -4.68 -0.26
125 Georgia St. -5.04 Georgia St. -4.31 -0.73
126 North Dakota -5.08 North Dakota -5.26 0.18
127 Iona -5.1 Iona -5.06 -0.04
128 New Orleans -5.2 New Orleans -5.2 0.00
129 Rice -5.21 Rice -4.36 -0.85
130 South Dakota -5.21 South Dakota -5.21 0.00
131 Texas A&M Corpus Chris -5.3 Texas A&M Corpus Chris -5.37 0.07
132 Rutgers -5.33 Rutgers -4.97 -0.36
133 St. John’s -5.34 St. John’s -5.33 -0.01
134 Fresno St. -5.37 Fresno St. -5.56 0.19
135 Northern Iowa -5.37 Northern Iowa -5.16 -0.21
136 Texas -5.46 Texas -4.9 -0.56
137 Fort Wayne -5.47 Fort Wayne -4.55 -0.92
138 Georgia Southern -5.59 Georgia Southern -5.7 0.11
139 Northern Kentucky -5.61 Northern Kentucky -4.77 -0.84
140 William & Mary -5.77 William & Mary -5.85 0.08
141 Loyola Chicago -5.79 Loyola Chicago -5.79 0.00
142 Tulsa -5.81 Tulsa -5.55 -0.26
143 Weber St. -5.88 Weber St. -4.95 -0.93
144 Arizona St. -5.9 Arizona St. -5.08 -0.82
145 Canisius -5.98 Canisius -5.96 -0.02
146 George Washington -6.02 George Washington -6 -0.02
147 Sam Houston St. -6.12 Sam Houston St. -5.23 -0.89
148 Tennessee Martin -6.13 Tennessee Martin -5.27 -0.86
149 Tennessee St. -6.13 Tennessee St. -6.12 -0.01
150 Denver -6.14 Denver -6.11 -0.03
151 San Jose St. -6.18 San Jose St. -6.26 0.08
152 Stony Brook -6.21 Stony Brook -6.25 0.04
153 Ball St. -6.24 Ball St. -6.44 0.20
154 Elon -6.26 Elon -6.41 0.15
155 Green Bay -6.26 Green Bay -6.35 0.09
156 Lehigh -6.29 Lehigh -6.31 0.02
157 Albany -6.35 Albany -6.38 0.03
158 Marshall -6.39 Marshall -5.77 -0.62
159 UMBC -6.39 UMBC -6.42 0.03
160 Louisiana Lafayette -6.42 Louisiana Lafayette -6.55 0.13
161 New Hampshire -6.43 New Hampshire -6.44 0.01
162 Buffalo -6.5 Buffalo -6.55 0.05
163 UAB -6.5 UAB -6.49 -0.01
164 UC Irvine -6.63 UC Irvine -6.7 0.07
165 Boston University -6.67 Boston University -6.62 -0.05
166 Liberty -6.75 Liberty -6.13 -0.62
167 Wyoming -6.79 Wyoming -6.2 -0.59
168 Washington St. -6.86 Washington St. -6.95 0.09
169 Samford -6.87 Samford -6.86 -0.01
170 Texas St. -6.93 Texas St. -6.22 -0.71
171 Central Michigan -6.99 Central Michigan -6.15 -0.84
172 Penn -7.12 Penn -7.14 0.02
173 LSU -7.17 LSU -6.8 -0.37
174 Loyola Marymount -7.24 Loyola Marymount -7.26 0.02
175 Stephen F. Austin -7.32 Stephen F. Austin -7.46 0.14
176 Loyola MD -7.35 Loyola MD -7.36 0.01
177 Lipscomb -7.36 Lipscomb -7.41 0.05
178 Nebraska Omaha -7.4 Nebraska Omaha -7.39 -0.01
179 Santa Clara -7.4 Santa Clara -6.5 -0.90
180 Houston Baptist -7.46 Houston Baptist -7.47 0.01
181 Southern Illinois -7.46 Southern Illinois -7.43 -0.03
182 Alcorn St. -7.49 Alcorn St. -7.48 -0.01
183 Saint Peter’s -7.5 Saint Peter’s -7.51 0.01
184 Missouri St. -7.55 Missouri St. -7.65 0.10
185 Mount St. Mary’s -7.56 Mount St. Mary’s -7.69 0.13
186 Fairfield -7.57 Fairfield -7.58 0.01
187 Toledo -7.81 Toledo -7.99 0.18
188 UMKC -7.83 UMKC -7.83 0.00
189 Massachusetts -7.86 Massachusetts -7.04 -0.82
190 UC Davis -7.87 UC Davis -6.9 -0.97
191 Troy -7.92 Troy -8.05 0.13
192 Kent St. -7.95 Kent St. -7.95 0.00
193 Gardner Webb -7.96 Gardner Webb -8 0.04
194 LIU Brooklyn -8.05 LIU Brooklyn -8.08 0.03
195 Jacksonville St. -8.07 Jacksonville St. -7.07 -1.00
196 East Carolina -8.12 East Carolina -7.36 -0.76
197 Northeastern -8.29 Northeastern -7.52 -0.77
198 Coastal Carolina -8.34 Coastal Carolina -7.58 -0.76
199 Charlotte -8.43 Charlotte -7.78 -0.65
200 Saint Joseph’s -8.44 Saint Joseph’s -7.78 -0.66
201 Boston College -8.54 Boston College -8.53 -0.01
202 Norfolk St. -8.65 Norfolk St. -8.69 0.04
203 Eastern Michigan -8.67 Eastern Michigan -7.93 -0.74
204 Evansville -8.67 Evansville -7.8 -0.87
205 Morehead St. -8.73 Morehead St. -8.19 -0.54
206 Long Beach St. -8.78 Long Beach St. -8.86 0.08
207 USC Upstate -8.78 USC Upstate -7.93 -0.85
208 Wofford -8.84 Wofford -8.85 0.01
209 Utah St. -8.87 Utah St. -8.36 -0.51
210 Mercer -9.03 Mercer -9.1 0.07
211 Western Kentucky -9.05 Western Kentucky -9.09 0.04
212 Columbia -9.06 Columbia -8.12 -0.94
213 Idaho -9.09 Idaho -9.07 -0.02
214 South Alabama -9.13 South Alabama -9.2 0.07
215 Wagner -9.17 Wagner -9.19 0.02
216 Fordham -9.25 Fordham -9.33 0.08
217 Siena -9.27 Siena -9.33 0.06
218 Western Michigan -9.32 Western Michigan -9.47 0.15
219 Washington -9.38 Washington -8.87 -0.51
220 DePaul -9.41 DePaul -9.45 0.04
221 Navy -9.41 Navy -8.44 -0.97
222 San Diego -9.41 San Diego -9.72 0.31
223 Northern Illinois -9.44 Northern Illinois -8.57 -0.87
224 Lamar -9.54 Lamar -8.72 -0.82
225 Holy Cross -9.59 Holy Cross -9.59 0.00
226 Montana -9.7 Montana -9.74 0.04
227 Illinois Chicago -9.81 Illinois Chicago -9.84 0.03
228 Hawaii -9.82 Hawaii -9.93 0.11
229 Little Rock -9.87 Little Rock -9.85 -0.02
230 High Point -9.91 High Point -9.03 -0.88
231 Cal St. Fullerton -9.99 Cal St. Fullerton -10.05 0.06
232 Murray St. -9.99 Murray St. -9.06 -0.93
233 UNLV -10.02 UNLV -10 -0.02
234 Duquesne -10.06 Duquesne -10.1 0.04
235 Rider -10.1 Rider -10.11 0.01
236 Indiana St. -10.14 Indiana St. -10.17 0.03
237 Jacksonville -10.15 Jacksonville -9.4 -0.75
238 Portland St. -10.17 Portland St. -9.35 -0.82
239 Abilene Christian -10.23 Abilene Christian -10.28 0.05
240 Radford -10.31 Radford -10.36 0.05
241 Seattle -10.35 Seattle -9.49 -0.86
242 Cal St. Northridge -10.37 Cal St. Northridge -10.43 0.06
243 IUPUI -10.46 IUPUI -10.49 0.03
244 Utah Valley -10.46 Utah Valley -9.5 -0.96
245 Nicholls St. -10.55 Nicholls St. -9.57 -0.98
246 South Dakota St. -10.55 South Dakota St. -10.84 0.29
247 Brown -10.58 Brown -9.85 -0.73
248 Savannah St. -10.58 Savannah St. -9.68 -0.90
249 Hofstra -10.6 Hofstra -9.92 -0.68
250 Southeastern Louisiana -10.6 Southeastern Louisiana -9.68 -0.92
251 Montana St. -10.74 Montana St. -10.76 0.02
252 Eastern Illinois -10.78 Eastern Illinois -10.98 0.20
253 Missouri -10.79 Missouri -10.46 -0.33
254 Southern -10.83 Southern -10.81 -0.02
255 UTEP -10.88 UTEP -11.16 0.28
256 Hampton -10.97 Hampton -10.05 -0.92
257 Bowling Green -11.21 Bowling Green -10.61 -0.60
258 Morgan St. -11.39 Morgan St. -11.42 0.03
259 Saint Louis -11.46 Saint Louis -10.69 -0.77
260 St. Francis PA -11.54 St. Francis PA -10.72 -0.82
261 Pacific -11.55 Pacific -11.55 0.00
262 Sacramento St. -11.6 Sacramento St. -10.75 -0.85
263 Incarnate Word -11.63 Incarnate Word -11.69 0.06
264 South Carolina St. -11.65 South Carolina St. -11.64 -0.01
265 Campbell -11.67 Campbell -10.85 -0.82
266 Appalachian St. -11.68 Appalachian St. -10.83 -0.85
267 Fairleigh Dickinson -11.74 Fairleigh Dickinson -10.82 -0.92
268 Portland -11.75 Portland -10.94 -0.81
269 Northwestern St. -11.76 Northwestern St. -11.85 0.09
270 Southeast Missouri St. -11.79 Southeast Missouri St. -11.86 0.07
271 Bradley -11.88 Bradley -12.02 0.14
272 Grambling St. -11.92 Grambling St. -11.97 0.05
273 UTSA -11.95 UTSA -11.02 -0.93
274 Kennesaw St. -11.98 Kennesaw St. -11.97 -0.01
275 Delaware -12.04 Delaware -11.17 -0.87
276 Quinnipiac -12.08 Quinnipiac -12.03 -0.05
277 Florida Atlantic -12.1 Florida Atlantic -12.14 0.04
278 North Florida -12.21 North Florida -11.35 -0.86
279 Tennessee Tech -12.21 Tennessee Tech -12.36 0.15
280 Pepperdine -12.22 Pepperdine -11.42 -0.80
281 Northern Colorado -12.24 Northern Colorado -12.26 0.02
282 Air Force -12.27 Air Force -11.47 -0.80
283 Prairie View A&M -12.36 Prairie View A&M -12.38 0.02
284 South Florida -12.46 South Florida -11.57 -0.89
285 Charleston Southern -12.61 Charleston Southern -12.64 0.03
286 Jackson St. -12.61 Jackson St. -11.61 -1.00
287 Western Illinois -12.66 Western Illinois -11.96 -0.70
288 Army -12.69 Army -12.91 0.22
289 Maryland Eastern Shore -12.74 Maryland Eastern Shore -11.88 -0.86
290 Binghamton -12.76 Binghamton -11.98 -0.78
291 Cornell -12.8 Cornell -12.13 -0.67
292 Sacred Heart -12.83 Sacred Heart -11.94 -0.89
293 Dartmouth -13.08 Dartmouth -13.16 0.08
294 Robert Morris -13.08 Robert Morris -13.12 0.04
295 Miami OH -13.16 Miami OH -12.47 -0.69
296 Bryant -13.27 Bryant -13.29 0.02
297 The Citadel -13.35 The Citadel -12.5 -0.85
298 Austin Peay -13.38 Austin Peay -13.35 -0.03
299 UC Riverside -13.39 UC Riverside -12.67 -0.72
300 Eastern Kentucky -13.58 Eastern Kentucky -12.8 -0.78
301 Manhattan -13.63 Manhattan -13.61 -0.02
302 Youngstown St. -13.67 Youngstown St. -13.8 0.13
303 McNeese St. -13.82 McNeese St. -13.87 0.05
304 Western Carolina -13.82 Western Carolina -13.09 -0.73
305 Alabama St. -13.86 Alabama St. -12.95 -0.91
306 Tulane -13.89 Tulane -13.94 0.05
307 Cleveland St. -13.9 Cleveland St. -13.01 -0.89
308 UT Rio Grande Valley -13.95 UT Rio Grande Valley -13.08 -0.87
309 Lafayette -14.02 Lafayette -14.03 0.01
310 VMI -14.02 VMI -13.26 -0.76
311 NJIT -14.15 NJIT -14.18 0.03
312 North Texas -14.15 North Texas -14.19 0.04
313 Cal Poly -14.16 Cal Poly -13.2 -0.96
314 Central Arkansas -14.2 Central Arkansas -13.42 -0.78
315 Oral Roberts -14.38 Oral Roberts -13.6 -0.78
316 Colgate -14.41 Colgate -14.4 -0.01
317 Delaware St. -14.73 Delaware St. -14.73 0.00
318 Howard -14.73 Howard -14.8 0.07
319 Southern Miss -14.77 Southern Miss -13.83 -0.94
320 Drake -14.86 Drake -13.98 -0.88
321 Detroit -14.89 Detroit -14.9 0.01
322 UMass Lowell -14.9 UMass Lowell -14.07 -0.83
323 Drexel -14.91 Drexel -14.07 -0.84
324 Louisiana Monroe -14.99 Louisiana Monroe -14.06 -0.93
325 American -15.15 American -15.21 0.06
326 Milwaukee -15.16 Milwaukee -14.32 -0.84
327 Oregon St. -15.41 Oregon St. -15.42 0.01
328 Stetson -15.45 Stetson -14.52 -0.93
329 James Madison -15.62 James Madison -14.98 -0.64
330 Niagara -15.72 Niagara -14.94 -0.78
331 Idaho St. -16.17 Idaho St. -15.17 -1.00
332 UC Santa Barbara -16.18 UC Santa Barbara -15.29 -0.89
333 Chicago St. -16.21 Chicago St. -15.36 -0.85
334 Coppin St. -16.21 Coppin St. -15.26 -0.95
335 Florida A&M -16.49 Florida A&M -15.52 -0.97
336 Marist -16.76 Marist -16.73 -0.03
337 Longwood -16.81 Longwood -15.96 -0.85
338 Mississippi Valley St. -16.89 Mississippi Valley St. -15.89 -1.00
339 Hartford -16.98 Hartford -16.24 -0.74
340 FIU -16.99 FIU -16.45 -0.54
341 Northern Arizona -17.01 Northern Arizona -16.02 -0.99
342 Bethune Cookman -17.38 Bethune Cookman -17.36 -0.02
343 Arkansas Pine Bluff -17.51 Arkansas Pine Bluff -16.67 -0.84
344 Maine -17.9 Maine -17.86 -0.04
345 Presbyterian -18.29 Presbyterian -17.39 -0.90
346 Southern Utah -18.82 Southern Utah -18.87 0.05
347 Central Connecticut -18.97 Central Connecticut -18 -0.97
348 SIU Edwardsville -19.4 SIU Edwardsville -18.54 -0.86
349 Alabama A&M -20.48 Alabama A&M -19.55 -0.93
350 St. Francis NY -21.09 St. Francis NY -20.14 -0.95
351 North Carolina A&T -21.71 North Carolina A&T -20.79 -0.92

Reminder: WAB stands for Wins-Above-Bubble. It is the amount of wins you have minus the amount of wins an average bubble team would have against your schedule.

The NCAA got a lot of press out of their stats retreat:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-ncaa-is-modernizing-the-way-it-picks-march-madness-teams/?ex_cid=story-twitter

From the piece:

“But beyond the practical concerns of sportsmanship, the scoring-margin debate also speaks to a deeper philosophical question at the core of any ranking system: Should the NCAA’s new metric reward the best teams or the most accomplished ones?

The selection committee is only starting to wrap its head around the subtle distinction between the two categories. Due to luck, underperformance and other circumstantial factors, it’s very possible for the most talented team in the country to not have the most impressive record in the country. Since things like point differential are more predictive measures, they give us a better read on a team’s underlying talent (the “best” team), while a metric like strength of record is more retrospective (the “most deserving” team). Because there will always be incongruities between the two types of rankings, a good ranking system will explicitly decide beforehand whether it’s measuring talent for the future or rewarding accomplishment in the past — or, if it’s somewhere in between, what the intended mix is.

In the past, the NCAA has sent conflicting messages about whether its selection and seeding process is fundamentally a forward-looking endeavor or a backward-looking one. “In terms of the how the committee should select teams, it actually says in [the NCAA guidelines] that they need to select the best 36 at-large teams — based on results,” Pomeroy said. “Best” and “based on results” don’t always line up,, though. “It’s like a contradiction right in that sentence.””

I’m not sure the distinction between best and most accomplished is all that subtle. Maryland has a better resume than West Virginia. West Virginia would be favored over Maryland on a neutral court. Of course, both are going to be invited to the dance. It’s a more important distinction when talking about bubble teams, so let’s look at USC and Houston.

USC is 21-5. If you put an average bubble team against their schedule it would average 18.87 wins. That’s some solid work by USC. However, across the six ratings systems I’ve averaged, they are only the 58th best team in the country. If you were inviting based off the KenPom ratings, they’d probably not receive an invite, despite their W/L record suggesting they deserved one. Please note, Ken Pomeroy himself is on record as saying the W/L record should be what determines selection. Frankly, I’m not sure anyone actually thinks selection should be based off of power ratings. It might just be a talking point.

Houston is 18-7. Our bubble squad would expect to average 19.09 wins against their schedule. However, they have the 39th best Pythag when the six ratings were averaged together. If we were selecting the 36 best teams after the auto-bids were decided, they’d almost certainly make the cut. Perhaps they’d pass “The eye-test”. Would that make them worthy of inclusion in the dance? Personally, I don’t think so. As far as I can tell, everyone agrees the W/L record should be definitive in terms of selection (if not seeding). The trick is balancing W/L records for wildly disparate schedules.

One way of doing that is solving for the amount of wins some baseline team would have against their schedule. That’s what I do with WAB. Another way would be to solve for what type of power level would be required to earn said record. That’s implied Pythag. Implied Pythag has the issue of undefeated teams, but there are ways around that. However, the first step is being explicit in determining that how good you are has nothing to do with selection. The NCAA Selection Committee has so far refused to be explicit in stating that your resume (body of work) is entirely what matters for selection. Mind you, I don’t expect that to be any comfort to Houston, as right now selection appears to be based off good wins (as far as the RPI is concerned) and bad losses (ditto).

Full WAB’s Here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hof8DT8OCt_9A-f93NnXnSfMdp97B1qvmQ8Hw_X3X8Y/edit#gid=0

WAB Rank School WAB-AVG Pythag Pythag Rank
1 Kansas 8.43 0.9486 9
2 Villanova 8.14 0.9612 3
3 Baylor 7.11 0.9426 12
4 Gonzaga 6.96 0.9738 1
5 Louisville 6.09 0.9605 4
6 North Carolina 5.86 0.9517 8
7 Arizona 5.37 0.9193 19
8 Florida 5.35 0.9600 5
9 Duke 5.14 0.9467 10
10 Florida St. 4.85 0.9314 15
11 Cincinnati 4.73 0.9185 20
12 Kentucky 4.71 0.9529 7
13 Wisconsin 4.67 0.9297 16
14 UCLA 4.65 0.9270 17
15 Maryland 4.55 0.8700 31
16 Oregon 4.41 0.9390 13
17 Butler 4.40 0.9076 25
18 Notre Dame 4.07 0.9114 24
19 Creighton 3.99 0.9068 26
20 Virginia 3.93 0.9590 6
21 Purdue 3.87 0.9449 11
22 West Virginia 3.69 0.9621 2
23 SMU 3.08 0.9235 18
24 Xavier 2.85 0.8751 30
25 Wichita St. 2.78 0.9338 14
26 Oklahoma St. 2.73 0.9115 23
27 Saint Mary’s 2.63 0.9179 21
28 Virginia Tech 2.49 0.8218 50
29 South Carolina 2.42 0.8809 28
30 USC 2.13 0.8004 58
31 Northwestern 1.88 0.8658 34
32 Iowa St. 1.86 0.9116 22
33 Minnesota 1.69 0.8560 38
34 VCU 1.64 0.8443 41
35 Arkansas 1.33 0.8156 54
36 Dayton 1.24 0.8683 33
37 Illinois St. 1.14 0.8240 49
38 Miami FL 0.98 0.8687 32
39 Middle Tennessee 0.78 0.8205 51
40 TCU 0.74 0.8436 42
41 Michigan St. 0.49 0.8279 48
42 Vermont 0.48 0.7464 70
43 Seton Hall 0.44 0.8154 55
44 Kansas St. 0.32 0.8787 29
45 Michigan 0.28 0.8895 27
46 Monmouth 0.21 0.7034 89
47 UNC Wilmington 0.14 0.7771 62
48 Clemson -0.05 0.8616 35
49 Texas Tech -0.08 0.8614 36
50 California -0.12 0.8310 45
51 Wake Forest -0.23 0.8606 37
52 Nevada -0.24 0.7666 65
53 Akron -0.28 0.6649 101
54 Belmont -0.46 0.7069 87
55 Marquette -0.65 0.8405 44
56 New Mexico St. -0.82 0.6628 103
57 Auburn -0.84 0.7325 79
58 Providence -0.85 0.8028 57
59 Georgia -0.91 0.8174 53
60 Syracuse -0.94 0.8428 43
61 UT Arlington -0.98 0.7420 73
62 Tennessee -0.99 0.8294 47
63 Valparaiso -1.01 0.6674 100
64 Georgia Tech -1.05 0.7243 82
65 Houston -1.09 0.8523 39
66 Alabama -1.29 0.7931 60
67 Mississippi -1.33 0.7641 66
68 East Tennessee St. -1.45 0.7336 77
69 Princeton -1.48 0.7456 71
70 Pittsburgh -1.55 0.7688 63
71 Chattanooga -1.61 0.6757 96
72 Winthrop -1.63 0.5941 124
73 Georgetown -1.71 0.8309 46
74 Indiana -1.75 0.8510 40
75 Utah -1.87 0.8205 52
76 UNC Asheville -2.00 0.6500 107
77 Florida Gulf Coast -2.03 0.6228 113
78 Ohio St. -2.05 0.7838 61
79 Rhode Island -2.15 0.8065 56
80 Boise St. -2.35 0.6912 91
81 Illinois -2.36 0.7453 72
82 College of Charleston -2.44 0.6635 102
83 Arkansas St. -2.53 0.6256 112
84 Memphis -2.58 0.7060 88
85 Iowa -2.71 0.7404 74
86 Furman -2.80 0.6821 93
87 Cal St. Bakersfield -2.83 0.6447 109
88 Bucknell -2.91 0.6707 99
89 Vanderbilt -2.96 0.7936 59
90 George Mason -2.97 0.6483 108
91 Texas A&M -3.10 0.7671 64
92 Penn St. -3.14 0.7316 80
93 UNC Greensboro -3.21 0.5188 157
94 UCF -3.24 0.7378 75
95 North Carolina St. -3.28 0.6767 94
96 Stanford -3.30 0.6738 97
97 Oakland -3.31 0.6040 118
98 BYU -3.36 0.7334 78
99 Harvard -3.36 0.6163 115
100 Colorado -3.42 0.7485 68
101 San Francisco -3.43 0.6347 110
102 Yale -3.45 0.5650 135
103 New Mexico -3.54 0.6328 111
104 North Carolina Central -3.62 0.5029 165
105 Louisiana Tech -3.66 0.6860 92
106 Colorado St. -3.66 0.6728 98
107 Temple -3.69 0.6548 105
108 Nebraska -3.72 0.7286 81
109 St. Bonaventure -3.81 0.7072 85
110 Mississippi St. -3.95 0.7011 90
111 Ohio -4.17 0.6548 106
112 San Diego St. -4.24 0.7361 76
113 Richmond -4.24 0.6583 104
114 Georgia St. -4.28 0.5619 137
115 Connecticut -4.30 0.7217 83
116 Grand Canyon -4.32 0.4475 188
117 Rice -4.34 0.5824 128
118 Eastern Washington -4.46 0.4819 178
119 Fort Wayne -4.50 0.6039 119
120 La Salle -4.54 0.6015 120
121 Oklahoma -4.56 0.7480 69
122 Davidson -4.56 0.7131 84
123 Old Dominion -4.59 0.5845 127
124 North Dakota St. -4.61 0.5516 140
125 Texas Southern -4.64 0.3808 215
126 Texas -4.77 0.7618 67
127 Northern Kentucky -4.78 0.5123 159
128 Rutgers -4.85 0.5792 129
129 Wright St. -4.89 0.4840 177
130 Weber St. -4.93 0.5360 149
131 Arizona St. -4.96 0.6013 121
132 Iona -5.01 0.5931 125
133 Towson -5.06 0.5765 130
134 Northern Iowa -5.08 0.5603 138
135 St. John’s -5.13 0.7069 86
136 South Dakota -5.17 0.5237 152
137 North Dakota -5.25 0.4851 174
138 New Orleans -5.25 0.3963 210
139 Tennessee Martin -5.33 0.4394 193
140 Sam Houston St. -5.38 0.3831 214
141 Fresno St. -5.48 0.6041 117
142 Texas A&M Corpus Chris -5.49 0.3581 220
143 Tulsa -5.59 0.5720 131
144 Georgia Southern -5.65 0.5052 163
145 Marshall -5.73 0.5381 148
146 Loyola Chicago -5.75 0.6761 95
147 George Washington -5.89 0.5558 139
148 William & Mary -5.95 0.5684 133
149 Canisius -6.02 0.5069 162
150 Central Michigan -6.04 0.4727 180
151 Tennessee St. -6.06 0.5027 166
152 Denver -6.06 0.5306 151
153 Wyoming -6.10 0.5194 155
154 Liberty -6.11 0.4376 194
155 San Jose St. -6.21 0.4272 198
156 Texas St. -6.21 0.4124 204
157 Stony Brook -6.29 0.4205 201
158 Buffalo -6.31 0.6166 114
159 Ball St. -6.35 0.4915 170
160 Green Bay -6.36 0.4754 179
161 Albany -6.40 0.5512 141
162 Lehigh -6.40 0.5911 126
163 UMBC -6.48 0.4332 195
164 New Hampshire -6.48 0.4685 182
165 Elon -6.48 0.5397 145
166 Santa Clara -6.50 0.6049 116
167 UAB -6.52 0.4999 168
168 UC Irvine -6.58 0.5397 144
169 Louisiana Lafayette -6.66 0.5389 146
170 Boston University -6.68 0.4849 175
171 LSU -6.75 0.5049 164
172 Washington St. -6.76 0.4075 206
173 UC Davis -6.79 0.3880 212
174 Massachusetts -6.95 0.5623 136
175 Samford -7.06 0.4842 176
176 Penn -7.11 0.5087 160
177 Jacksonville St. -7.15 0.4278 197
178 Nebraska Omaha -7.25 0.4332 196
179 Loyola Marymount -7.25 0.4671 183
180 Lipscomb -7.37 0.5074 161
181 East Carolina -7.40 0.4188 202
182 Loyola MD -7.42 0.3353 239
183 Southern Illinois -7.43 0.4857 173
184 Houston Baptist -7.48 0.3390 237
185 Saint Peter’s -7.49 0.6007 122
186 Stephen F. Austin -7.51 0.3098 249
187 Fairfield -7.56 0.4247 200
188 Alcorn St. -7.60 0.2120 298
189 Northeastern -7.63 0.5492 142
190 Saint Joseph’s -7.64 0.5414 143
191 Coastal Carolina -7.67 0.4258 199
192 Missouri St. -7.68 0.5956 123
193 Mount St. Mary’s -7.68 0.3798 216
194 Charlotte -7.76 0.3478 228
195 Eastern Michigan -7.79 0.5345 150
196 Evansville -7.83 0.5388 147
197 UMKC -7.85 0.3461 230
198 Kent St. -7.89 0.4984 169
199 Toledo -7.94 0.5695 132
200 USC Upstate -7.95 0.3488 225
201 Troy -7.99 0.5021 167
202 Gardner Webb -7.99 0.4185 203
203 Columbia -8.11 0.4044 207
204 LIU Brooklyn -8.15 0.2948 258
205 Morehead St. -8.22 0.4646 185
206 Utah St. -8.27 0.5188 156
207 Boston College -8.35 0.5652 134
208 Northern Illinois -8.49 0.4105 205
209 Navy -8.56 0.4544 186
210 Long Beach St. -8.63 0.3423 232
211 Washington -8.70 0.5180 158
212 Norfolk St. -8.71 0.1991 305
213 Lamar -8.79 0.3213 245
214 Idaho -9.01 0.3551 221
215 High Point -9.02 0.3034 253
216 Western Kentucky -9.09 0.3377 238
217 Murray St. -9.11 0.4866 172
218 Wofford -9.15 0.4870 171
219 Wagner -9.18 0.3344 240
220 South Alabama -9.22 0.3534 222
221 Mercer -9.25 0.5218 153
222 Fordham -9.28 0.4435 191
223 DePaul -9.30 0.4650 184
224 Western Michigan -9.33 0.4452 190
225 Portland St. -9.33 0.3401 236
226 Siena -9.36 0.4713 181
227 Jacksonville -9.41 0.2665 272
228 Seattle -9.53 0.2656 273
229 Utah Valley -9.55 0.3753 217
230 Montana -9.63 0.4466 189
231 Nicholls St. -9.68 0.1464 321
232 San Diego -9.68 0.3032 254
233 Savannah St. -9.69 0.1462 322
234 Holy Cross -9.70 0.3587 219
235 Hawaii -9.81 0.3090 251
236 Brown -9.82 0.2774 267
237 Southeastern Louisiana -9.83 0.3287 243
238 UNLV -9.87 0.3487 226
239 Little Rock -9.88 0.3482 227
240 Illinois Chicago -9.88 0.3453 231
241 Cal St. Fullerton -9.92 0.2418 283
242 Duquesne -9.95 0.4010 209
243 Hofstra -10.05 0.4538 187
244 Rider -10.05 0.3522 223
245 Hampton -10.08 0.1763 313
246 Indiana St. -10.13 0.4400 192
247 Cal St. Northridge -10.25 0.2900 259
248 Radford -10.34 0.2401 284
249 Missouri -10.37 0.5199 154
250 IUPUI -10.39 0.3923 211
251 Abilene Christian -10.39 0.2020 304
252 Bowling Green -10.55 0.3166 248
253 Saint Louis -10.62 0.2455 279
254 St. Francis PA -10.68 0.2785 266
255 Sacramento St. -10.70 0.2249 290
256 Montana St. -10.72 0.3310 242
257 Fairleigh Dickinson -10.82 0.2830 262
258 Appalachian St. -10.83 0.3326 241
259 Southern -10.84 0.1721 314
260 South Dakota St. -10.87 0.4015 208
261 Campbell -10.89 0.2172 293
262 Portland -10.90 0.2698 268
263 Eastern Illinois -11.01 0.3600 218
264 UTSA -11.04 0.2420 282
265 UTEP -11.16 0.3417 234
266 Delaware -11.24 0.2180 292
267 North Florida -11.25 0.3237 244
268 Pepperdine -11.31 0.2389 285
269 Air Force -11.39 0.3860 213
270 Morgan St. -11.41 0.1219 331
271 Pacific -11.47 0.3173 247
272 South Florida -11.58 0.2366 286
273 Jackson St. -11.68 0.1543 320
274 South Carolina St. -11.71 0.0947 336
275 Incarnate Word -11.77 0.1666 316
276 Southeast Missouri St. -11.82 0.3098 250
277 Sacred Heart -11.90 0.2074 301
278 Maryland Eastern Shore -11.92 0.1768 312
279 Northwestern St. -11.92 0.1864 309
280 Western Illinois -11.93 0.2069 302
281 Kennesaw St. -11.93 0.2795 265
282 Bradley -11.99 0.3199 246
283 Grambling St. -12.01 0.0935 340
284 Binghamton -12.05 0.2108 299
285 Cornell -12.07 0.2809 264
286 Quinnipiac -12.10 0.2955 257
287 Florida Atlantic -12.11 0.2818 263
288 Northern Colorado -12.19 0.2330 287
289 Miami OH -12.37 0.2544 276
290 Prairie View A&M -12.41 0.1543 319
291 Tennessee Tech -12.44 0.2992 256
292 UC Riverside -12.48 0.2168 295
293 Charleston Southern -12.67 0.2048 303
294 The Citadel -12.73 0.1833 310
295 Eastern Kentucky -12.78 0.2446 281
296 Army -12.96 0.2866 261
297 Alabama St. -12.99 0.0938 338
298 Cleveland St. -13.08 0.3419 233
299 Cal Poly -13.10 0.2141 296
300 Robert Morris -13.18 0.2535 278
301 Dartmouth -13.18 0.2169 294
302 UT Rio Grande Valley -13.19 0.1989 306
303 Austin Peay -13.27 0.2105 300
304 Bryant -13.32 0.2539 277
305 Western Carolina -13.32 0.1370 327
306 VMI -13.48 0.1676 315
307 Oral Roberts -13.49 0.3407 235
308 Central Arkansas -13.52 0.1961 307
309 Manhattan -13.63 0.2240 291
310 Youngstown St. -13.76 0.2121 297
311 Southern Miss -13.81 0.1210 332
312 Tulane -13.90 0.3053 252
313 McNeese St. -13.96 0.1339 328
314 Drake -14.00 0.3013 255
315 UMass Lowell -14.04 0.2454 280
316 Lafayette -14.10 0.1371 326
317 Drexel -14.14 0.3522 224
318 Louisiana Monroe -14.14 0.2596 275
319 NJIT -14.16 0.2669 271
320 North Texas -14.21 0.1901 308
321 Milwaukee -14.35 0.2599 274
322 Colgate -14.41 0.2676 270
323 Stetson -14.50 0.1636 318
324 Delaware St. -14.71 0.1071 335
325 Howard -14.77 0.0772 342
326 Niagara -14.94 0.2873 260
327 Detroit -14.96 0.2301 289
328 Idaho St. -15.06 0.1426 325
329 James Madison -15.10 0.3462 229
330 UC Santa Barbara -15.10 0.1279 330
331 Oregon St. -15.15 0.2683 269
332 Coppin St. -15.25 0.0659 347
333 American -15.28 0.1831 311
334 Chicago St. -15.36 0.0945 337
335 Florida A&M -15.61 0.0781 341
336 Mississippi Valley St. -15.84 0.0755 343
337 Longwood -15.93 0.0602 348
338 Northern Arizona -15.97 0.1450 324
339 Hartford -16.25 0.1310 329
340 FIU -16.51 0.2330 288
341 Arkansas Pine Bluff -16.57 0.0746 345
342 Marist -16.78 0.1646 317
343 Presbyterian -17.43 0.0454 350
344 Bethune Cookman -17.48 0.0748 344
345 Maine -17.90 0.1150 334
346 Central Connecticut -17.98 0.0936 339
347 SIU Edwardsville -18.50 0.1453 323
348 Southern Utah -18.80 0.1171 333
349 Alabama A&M -19.48 0.0290 351
350 St. Francis NY -20.14 0.0686 346
351 North Carolina A&T -20.80 0.0487 349