Monthly Archives: September 2015

Kansas City Chiefs @ Green Bay Packers
Kansas City +7, risking $66,340 to win $60,309

A reminder: I have changed the methodology to use the lines as of the time of posting. I will audit the first two weeks and make changes as necessary. Currently, Football Outsiders is down $307,858.

Kiss is still working these days:

Youtube has a ton of concerts from their prime if you want to check out one of the greatest concert bands in the history of rock.

As for football, it was a rough afternoon for Football Outsiders. Perhaps they will rally this evening:

Denver Broncos @ Detroit Lions
Detroit Lions +3.5, risking $137,160 to win $114,300

See y’all tomorrow night in Wisconsin.

It was a choppy morning for Football Outsiders, but it ended up a positive one to the tune of $11,458. The afternoon slate:

San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals
Arizona Cardinals -6.5, risking $123,200 to win $123,200

Arizona has been on an amazing run (in the games started by Carson Palmer).

Chicago Bears @ Seattle Seahawks
Chicago Bears +14.5, risking $80,673 to win $72,678

Seattle has had a rough start to the season. Playing at home vs. the Bears should make life easier. Enough easier to win by > 2 TD’s? We shall see.

Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins
Miami Dolphins -2.5, risking $115,380 to win $96,150

Tyrod Taylor has been a revelation for the Bills offense. Even with the addition of Suh, Miami may have slipped to third best in the division. (Let’s not kid ourselves about the Jets).

I’ll be back tonight for Denver-Detroit.

You may see some odd lines here because I am going to be tracking Football Outsiders against the line as of the time of posting. I may also see how their published internal lines do against the close later this season. I’ll do an audit to see exactly how much this changes their season results.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ St. Louis Rams
St. Louis Rams +1.5, risking $41,028 to win $39,833

The soon to be LA Rams (if Fox is to be believed) have a chance to redeem themselves after last week’s debacle against Washington.

San Diego Chargers @ Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota Vikings -2.5, risking $64,982 to win $63,089

After a rough start vs. San Francisco, Teddy Bradford rallied last week against Detroit. We’ll see if he can keep it going vs. San Diego.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Houston Texans
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6.5, risking $57,138 to win $53,904

Perhaps Jameis Winston just needed a week to adjust to the speed of the NFL.

Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Jets
New York Jets -2.5, risking $221,950 to win $201,773

A Jets win would move the Jets to 3-0 and the Eagles to 0-3. That’s obviously impossible given Chip Kelly’s genius and the Jets general historic ineptitude. 🙂

New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers
Football Outsiders agrees with the original post-Brees line.

Carolina may be living a charmed existence. Either that, or New Orleans will be part of their second “Survivor” bloodbath of the season.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ New England Patriots
Jacksonville Jaguars +13.5, risking $37,774 to win $35,636

Can the Jaguars upset two AFC East foes in a row? I doubt it.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens
Cincinnati Bengals +3, risking $94,920 to win $79,100

There is no thing as a week three must win, but this is roughly as close as it gets for the Ravens.

Oakland Raiders @ Cleveland Browns
Cleveland Browns -3.5, risking $7,864 to win $7,786

My word, those are some ugly uniforms the Browns are wearing.

Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans
Tennessee Titans +3.5, risking $265,576 to win $235,023

Losing at Buffalo was bad, but understandable. Losing at home to the Jets was a disaster. Losing at Tennessee would be an utter nightmare.

Atlanta Falcons @ Dallas Cowboys
Football Outsiders agreed with the line

Frankly, I hope one day I believe in anything as much as Jerry Jones believes in Brandon Weeden:

I’ll be back in a few hours for the second wave of games.

It has been a rough start of the season for Big Blue. They’ve brought much of the suffering on themselves, but perhaps they’ll be able to turn things around against Washington:

Washington Redskins @ New York Giants

New York Giants -3.5, risking $47.200 to win $47,200 (Edited for a typo)

I’m going to be auditing all of Football Outsiders plays these season, and see where they would be if all of them were played at the time of posting.

It was a tough afternoon for Football Outsiders as they saw their profits cut to $239,069.

Seattle Seahawks @ Green Bay Packers
Seattle Seahawks +3.5, risking $395,572 to win $362,910

I’ll be back tomorrow night when my Jets look to get rid of all the good feelings they picked up against Cleveland.

Football Outsiders turned a -$124,680 debt into a $560,067 profit. That is the nature of Full-Kelly. Let’s see if they can keep it rolling:

Baltimore Ravens @ Oakland Raiders
Baltimore Ravens -6, risking $189,400 to win $172,182

Miami Dolphins @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Miami Dolphins -5, risking $236,580 to win $225,314

Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles
Dallas Cowboys +7, risking $115,480 to win $104,982

I’ll be back later this evening for Seahawks-Packers