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Monthly Archives: January 2015

Some explanations: Fumbles is with all special teams plays removed. PPF is plays-per-fumble. It also does not include Special Teams TO Differential is turnover differential. The final column is what the turnover differential looks like if every team recovered their own fumbles at a league average rate. So, for example: The Atlanta Falcons were not particularly good at recovering their own fumbles over the past 8 seasons, and their already solid TO differential would be improved had the been merely average in that somewhat random skill. Denver has been stunningly awful at recovering their own fumbles during this time frame. As for everyone’s favorites deflators, lead the NFL in plays-per-fumble, turnover differential, and turnover differential sans luck. In fact, the terms of turnover differential, only Green Bay is in the same league.

I’m planning on doing a deeper dive into this stuff, including a separate sample from 1999-2006 when I get some free time.

Team Snaps Fumbles PPF TO Differential TOD – FMB “Luck”
Arizona Cardinals 7971 174 45.8 -26 -26.0
Atlanta Falcons 8296 108 76.8 37 46.0
Baltimore Ravens 8321 135 61.6 21 24.1
Buffalo Bills 7851 168 46.7 -15 -15.6
Carolina Panthers 7958 133 59.8 21 23.2
Chicago Bears 7928 155 51.1 24 17.4
Cincinnati Bengals 8195 144 56.9 0 4.9
Cleveland Browns 7933 132 60.1 -8 -17.2
Dallas Cowboys 8046 147 54.7 1 -4.7
Denver Broncos 8375 143 58.6 -26 -11.1
Detroit Lions 8344 172 48.5 -34 -42.1
Green Bay Packers 8144 130 62.6 87 76.1
Houston Texans 8346 148 56.4 -13 -10.3
Indianapolis Colts 8245 119 69.3 9 8.1
Jacksonville Jaguars 8060 143 56.4 -21 -21.1
Kansas City Chiefs 8067 148 54.5 -7 -3.9
Miami Dolphins 8094 158 51.2 -26 -33.5
Minnesota Vikings 8016 147 54.5 -27 -21.0
New England Patriots 8699 96 90.6 114 112.0
New Orleans Saints 8564 125 68.5 -20 -12.8
New York Giants 8184 150 54.6 -6 4.2
New York Jets 8245 153 53.9 -37 -44.6
Oakland Raiders 7943 188 42.3 -60 -71.0
Philadelphia Eagles 8412 163 51.6 -15 -5.2
Pittsburgh Steelers 8151 147 55.4 -6 0.5
San Diego Chargers 8020 129 62.2 16 20.3
San Francisco 49ers 7702 169 45.6 35 28.7
Seattle Seahawks 7963 148 53.8 37 32.7
St. Louis Rams 7999 147 54.4 -23 -26.3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7827 149 52.5 12 13.3
Tennessee Titans 7799 159 49.1 -7 -1.1
Washington Redskins 8189 194 42.2 -37 -44.4
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These are ratings or rankings. This is how my NCAA tournament seeding would go. Right now I’d have Kansas grab the final 1 seed and share a region with Arizona. I’m still tuning the numbers a bit, but that is a coding issue, not a formula issue.

Seeing Syracuse sitting at 65 makes me sad. 😦

Kentucky 110.70 1
Virginia 110.50 2
Gonzaga 104.72 3
Kansas 103.19 4
Arizona 101.49 5
Wisconsin 99.69 6
Villanova 99.00 7
Duke 98.53 8
Wichita St. 95.45 9
VCU 94.44 10
North Carolina 94.37 11
Utah 92.50 12
Northern Iowa 91.39 13
Notre Dame 90.75 14
Louisville 90.45 15
West Virginia 90.23 16
Baylor 89.22 17
Maryland 89.16 18
Georgetown 85.15 19
Colorado St. 83.91 20
Iowa St. 82.57 21
Dayton 82.50 22
SMU 82.03 23
Georgia 81.74 24
Texas 81.56 25
Oklahoma 80.90 26
Butler 80.78 27
Providence 80.61 28
Davidson 80.46 29
LSU 79.99 30
San Diego St. 79.80 31
Miami FL 79.14 32
Arkansas 78.90 33
Stanford 78.23 34
Ohio St. 77.91 35
Saint Mary’s 77.31 36
Stephen F. Austin 77.28 37
Oklahoma St. 76.70 38
Cincinnati 76.26 39
Tulsa 75.56 40
Xavier 75.51 41
Indiana 74.50 42
George Washington 74.47 43
Green Bay 73.99 44
Texas A&M 73.22 45
Old Dominion 73.09 46
Seton Hall 72.74 47
Alabama 71.70 48
St. John’s 71.18 49
Mississippi 70.81 50
Michigan St. 70.75 51
BYU 70.17 52
Wyoming 70.16 53
Valparaiso 69.82 54
Iowa 69.57 55
Murray St. 69.16 56
Washington 69.16 57
North Carolina St. 67.56 58
Bowling Green 66.96 59
Tennessee 65.78 60
Rhode Island 65.66 61
Oregon St. 65.10 62
Oregon 64.28 63
Central Michigan 63.89 64
Syracuse 63.10 65
Buffalo 63.03 66
Western Kentucky 62.59 67
Wofford 62.29 68
Boise St. 62.24 69
Evansville 62.18 70
TCU 61.79 71
Kansas St. 61.73 72
Harvard 61.66 73
Temple 61.47 74
Florida 61.07 75
Connecticut 60.99 76
Louisiana Tech 60.52 77
Iona 60.50 78
Illinois 60.28 79
South Carolina 59.69 80
UCLA 59.45 81
Yale 58.63 82
Michigan 58.46 83
Minnesota 58.22 84
Nebraska 57.17 85
North Carolina Central 57.04 86
Purdue 56.82 87
Eastern Washington 56.70 88
Long Beach St. 56.59 89
Pittsburgh 56.47 90
Kent St. 56.16 91
Memphis 55.76 92
Sam Houston St. 55.44 93
UC Davis 55.19 94
Penn St. 54.77 95
Vanderbilt 54.51 96
UTEP 54.45 97
New Mexico 54.28 98
Richmond 53.70 99
High Point 53.18 100
Arizona St. 53.11 101
Colorado 53.02 102
Illinois St. 52.53 103
Georgia Southern 51.96 104
Northeastern 51.87 105
Marquette 51.45 106
Toledo 51.32 107
Massachusetts 50.96 108
Akron 50.78 109
William & Mary 49.75 110
Clemson 48.79 111
Georgia St. 48.55 112
Western Michigan 48.32 113
Pepperdine 48.08 114
UC Irvine 47.96 115
La Salle 47.83 116
Georgia Tech 47.35 117
UNLV 47.12 118
South Dakota St. 46.82 119
Loyola Chicago 46.48 120
Incarnate Word 45.50 121
St. Bonaventure 44.95 122
Hofstra 44.27 123
Stony Brook 44.15 124
Coastal Carolina 44.10 125
Eastern Kentucky 43.10 126
Boston College 43.08 127
Cleveland St. 42.91 128
DePaul 42.83 129
Belmont 42.45 130
Florida Gulf Coast 40.70 131
Auburn 40.51 132
UT Arlington 39.91 133
UC Santa Barbara 39.72 134
Cal Poly 39.57 135
Eastern Michigan 39.09 136
Chattanooga 39.05 137
Middle Tennessee 39.03 138
Canisius 38.43 139
Rider 38.13 140
Tulane 37.47 141
Wake Forest 37.41 142
Northwestern 37.19 143
Albany 36.88 144
Sacramento St. 36.68 145
Tennessee Martin 36.59 146
UNC Wilmington 36.45 147
North Florida 36.34 148
East Tennessee St. 36.32 149
Hawaii 36.27 150
Florida St. 36.22 151
Utah St. 35.86 152
New Mexico St. 35.74 153
Columbia 35.37 154
Radford 34.94 155
California 34.88 156
Rutgers 34.78 157
Charlotte 34.76 158
Eastern Illinois 34.52 159
Gardner Webb 34.40 160
James Madison 34.39 161
Portland 34.32 162
Creighton 34.25 163
American 34.03 164
Norfolk St. 33.75 165
Washington St. 33.60 166
San Diego 33.35 167
North Dakota St. 33.06 168
Texas Southern 32.66 169
UAB 32.29 170
USC 32.13 171
Detroit 30.42 172
Texas Tech 29.72 173
Lafayette 29.52 174
Santa Clara 29.21 175
Dartmouth 28.64 176
Missouri 28.07 177
St. Francis NY 27.86 178
Charleston Southern 27.75 179
Quinnipiac 26.93 180
Vermont 26.74 181
Army 26.65 182
Saint Joseph’s 26.41 183
Louisiana Monroe 25.82 184
Oakland 25.62 185
USC Upstate 25.59 186
St. Francis PA 25.48 187
Indiana St. 24.95 188
Montana 24.76 189
Oral Roberts 24.71 190
Wright St. 24.17 191
NJIT 24.05 192
Louisiana Lafayette 23.87 193
Cornell 23.60 194
Robert Morris 23.35 195
Maryland Eastern Shore 23.27 196
Lehigh 23.16 197
San Francisco 22.60 198
Bucknell 21.64 199
Monmouth 21.56 200
Delaware St. 21.44 201
Alabama St. 21.40 202
Mount St. Mary’s 20.64 203
George Mason 20.22 204
Virginia Tech 20.05 205
Florida Atlantic 20.04 206
Mercer 18.98 207
Northern Illinois 18.37 208
Pacific 18.30 209
Mississippi St. 18.13 210
Ohio 17.88 211
Fresno St. 16.53 212
Texas St. 16.45 213
Portland St. 16.45 214
UCF 16.17 215
Ball St. 15.75 216
Saint Louis 15.63 217
Saint Peter’s 15.37 218
Northwestern St. 15.35 219
New Hampshire 14.99 220
Tennessee Tech 14.86 221
Northern Colorado 14.51 222
Bryant 14.49 223
Princeton 14.37 224
Northern Arizona 14.16 225
Colgate 14.00 226
Manhattan 13.83 227
UTSA 13.44 228
South Dakota 13.04 229
Winthrop 12.78 230
FIU 12.68 231
UNC Asheville 12.20 232
Hartford 12.04 233
Northern Kentucky 10.86 234
Denver 10.76 235
Missouri St. 10.39 236
Appalachian St. 10.13 237
Elon 9.65 238
Brown 9.38 239
Holy Cross 9.15 240
Arkansas St. 8.84 241
UC Riverside 8.66 242
Lipscomb 8.65 243
Morehead St. 8.05 244
Boston University 7.98 245
Seattle 7.80 246
South Florida 7.63 247
Lamar 7.59 248
IUPUI 7.54 249
Grand Canyon 6.87 250
McNeese St. 6.76 251
Idaho 6.43 252
Weber St. 6.28 253
Penn 6.27 254
Southeastern Louisiana 6.02 255
Western Carolina 5.30 256
Loyola Marymount 5.19 257
Southeast Missouri St. 4.99 258
Texas A&M Corpus Chris 4.90 259
Southern Illinois 4.83 260
East Carolina 4.49 261
Milwaukee 3.78 262
Howard 3.30 263
Sacred Heart 2.75 264
IPFW 2.56 265
Southern 2.46 266
Air Force 2.34 267
North Texas 1.44 268
Siena 0.65 269
UMass Lowell 0.50 270
Cal St. Fullerton 0.49 271
Utah Valley 0.48 272
New Orleans 0.45 273
Houston Baptist 0.31 274
Duquesne 0.11 275
Miami OH -0.16 276
Rice -0.48 277
Nebraska Omaha -0.74 278
Houston -1.34 279
Youngstown St. -1.41 280
Bradley -1.43 281
North Dakota -1.79 282
Fordham -1.92 283
Towson -2.21 284
SIU Edwardsville -2.50 285
Abilene Christian -2.83 286
VMI -2.83 287
Nevada -3.22 288
College of Charleston -3.36 289
Arkansas Little Rock -4.90 290
Drexel -4.93 291
Loyola MD -5.17 292
Cal St. Northridge -5.98 293
UMKC -6.16 294
Hampton -6.47 295
LIU Brooklyn -6.48 296
Western Illinois -7.25 297
Austin Peay -7.39 298
Southern Miss -7.70 299
Fairleigh Dickinson -7.72 300
Navy -8.02 301
Troy -9.29 302
Furman -9.61 303
Wagner -9.83 304
Jacksonville St. -9.88 305
The Citadel -11.20 306
Savannah St. -11.92 307
Drake -12.36 308
Campbell -12.87 309
Samford -13.25 310
South Alabama -13.26 311
Fairfield -13.27 312
Southern Utah -13.68 313
Cal St. Bakersfield -13.85 314
Prairie View A&M -14.93 315
Delaware -15.78 316
Marshall -15.89 317
Texas Pan American -15.97 318
Nicholls St. -16.66 319
South Carolina St. -17.55 320
Alabama A&M -17.88 321
Longwood -19.76 322
Arkansas Pine Bluff -20.50 323
Illinois Chicago -20.52 324
Jackson St. -20.63 325
Niagara -21.14 326
Montana St. -21.66 327
Presbyterian -22.85 328
Kennesaw St. -23.69 329
Idaho St. -24.21 330
UNC Greensboro -25.23 331
Bethune Cookman -25.56 332
Morgan St. -26.22 333
North Carolina A&T -27.45 334
Jacksonville -28.49 335
Alcorn St. -28.59 336
Coppin St. -28.79 337
Stetson -30.55 338
Liberty -32.20 339
Chicago St. -33.36 340
UMBC -34.59 341
Grambling St. -36.60 342
Mississippi Valley St. -36.67 343
Tennessee St. -36.89 344
Marist -37.07 345
Maine -37.09 346
Central Connecticut -40.38 347
San Jose St. -41.04 348
Binghamton -41.92 349
Central Arkansas -44.75 350
Florida A&M -51.38 351
98.84 Kentucky 1
98.80 Virginia 2
95.91 Gonzaga 3
95.47 Villanova 4
95.01 Duke 5
92.74 Wisconsin 6
92.53 Kansas 7
91.44 Arizona 8
91.24 Louisville 9
90.82 Wichita St. 10
90.80 Utah 11
90.48 VCU 12
90.47 North Carolina 13
90.11 Maryland 14
89.63 West Virginia 15
88.48 Iowa St. 16
88.02 Baylor 17
87.76 Northern Iowa 18
87.56 Oklahoma 19
87.27 Arkansas 20
86.61 Notre Dame 21
86.29 Oklahoma St. 22
86.04 Dayton 23
86.03 Seton Hall 24
85.02 Old Dominion 25
83.83 SMU 26
83.40 Michigan St. 27
83.16 Texas 28
82.40 Ohio St. 29
82.35 Davidson 30
82.26 Alabama 31
82.04 Xavier 32
81.96 Cincinnati 33
81.91 Providence 34
81.69 Butler 35
81.66 San Diego St. 36
81.61 BYU 37
81.31 St. John’s 38
80.47 Colorado St. 39
80.44 Harvard 40
80.39 Georgia 41
80.29 Green Bay 42
79.73 Syracuse 43
79.53 North Carolina St. 44
79.37 Georgetown 45
79.12 Stanford 46
78.87 Connecticut 47
78.59 Florida 48
78.04 South Carolina 49
77.98 Stephen F. Austin 50
77.93 Mississippi 51
77.56 Wyoming 52
77.10 Iowa 53
77.06 Saint Mary’s 54
76.48 George Washington 55
76.45 Temple 56
76.37 LSU 57
76.02 Rhode Island 58
75.88 Louisiana Tech 59
75.86 Indiana 60
75.68 Vanderbilt 61
75.38 Minnesota 62
74.79 Oregon 63
74.75 Valparaiso 64
74.43 Miami FL 65
74.40 Buffalo 66
74.21 UCLA 67
73.82 Wofford 68
73.69 Illinois 69
73.48 Tulsa 70
73.27 Murray St. 71
73.17 Bowling Green 72
73.09 Texas A&M 73
72.63 Loyola Chicago 74
71.98 Michigan 75
71.66 Iona 76
71.53 Eastern Washington 77
71.32 Washington 78
71.11 Coastal Carolina 79
70.98 Western Kentucky 80
70.88 Illinois St. 81
70.76 Sam Houston St. 82
70.73 Yale 83
70.22 UTEP 84
70.03 Oregon St. 85
70.02 UC Santa Barbara 86
70.02 Hofstra 87
69.71 Evansville 88
69.66 TCU 89
69.62 Eastern Kentucky 90
69.24 North Carolina Central 91
69.23 Long Beach St. 92
69.23 Georgia Tech 93
69.19 Northeastern 94
69.12 Colorado 95
69.02 La Salle 96
68.52 Massachusetts 97
68.08 Pittsburgh 98
67.97 Penn St. 99
67.87 Tennessee 100
67.45 Boise St. 101
67.44 Stony Brook 102
67.28 New Mexico 103
67.03 William & Mary 104
67.00 Central Michigan 105
66.92 Purdue 106
66.85 Incarnate Word 107
66.63 Kansas St. 108
66.34 Pepperdine 109
66.08 Marquette 110
65.96 UNLV 111
65.61 Toledo 112
65.56 Georgia St. 113
65.51 Arizona St. 114
65.35 Memphis 115
64.54 Richmond 116
64.48 Nebraska 117
63.67 Eastern Michigan 118
63.57 California 119
63.34 Charlotte 120
63.31 Cal Poly 121
62.59 Wake Forest 122
62.48 Clemson 123
62.23 High Point 124
62.13 Louisiana Lafayette 125
61.68 Auburn 126
61.46 Lafayette 127
61.44 Georgia Southern 128
61.25 Portland 129
61.04 Wright St. 130
60.99 UC Davis 131
60.78 Rutgers 132
60.68 Kent St. 133
59.88 Tulane 134
59.84 Florida Gulf Coast 135
59.79 Texas Southern 136
59.30 Creighton 137
59.18 Northwestern St. 138
58.96 New Mexico St. 139
58.50 Cleveland St. 140
58.42 USC Upstate 141
58.40 Belmont 142
58.38 Northwestern 143
57.93 Western Michigan 144
57.56 South Dakota St. 145
57.34 San Diego 146
57.10 Norfolk St. 147
56.92 Columbia 148
56.24 St. Francis PA 149
55.92 UC Irvine 150
55.70 Akron 151
55.33 Missouri 152
55.24 Washington St. 153
55.17 Florida St. 154
55.10 Boston College 155
54.93 St. Bonaventure 156
54.85 Gardner Webb 157
54.66 USC 158
54.24 Hawaii 159
54.02 Saint Joseph’s 160
53.67 East Tennessee St. 161
53.49 North Dakota St. 162
53.35 Texas St. 163
53.27 Detroit 164
53.20 Chattanooga 165
53.10 Rider 166
53.05 George Mason 167
52.71 San Francisco 168
52.65 Canisius 169
52.44 Louisiana Monroe 170
52.43 Oral Roberts 171
52.30 American 172
52.12 DePaul 173
51.93 North Florida 174
51.06 Middle Tennessee 175
50.99 Eastern Illinois 176
50.92 Vermont 177
50.20 Texas Tech 178
49.98 UNC Wilmington 179
49.92 St. Francis NY 180
49.66 Utah St. 181
49.61 UT Arlington 182
49.31 Maryland Eastern Shore 183
48.91 Santa Clara 184
48.38 Tennessee Martin 185
47.51 Albany 186
47.50 Elon 187
46.87 Saint Peter’s 188
46.67 Mercer 189
46.56 Boston University 190
46.47 UAB 191
46.41 Oakland 192
46.29 James Madison 193
46.24 Charleston Southern 194
46.18 Monmouth 195
45.95 NJIT 196
45.75 Northern Illinois 197
45.65 Quinnipiac 198
45.59 Tennessee Tech 199
45.54 Weber St. 200
45.35 UNC Asheville 201
45.23 Fresno St. 202
44.99 Delaware St. 203
44.34 Hartford 204
44.26 Bryant 205
44.21 Indiana St. 206
44.18 Missouri St. 207
44.12 Northern Arizona 208
43.98 Radford 209
43.98 Cornell 210
43.79 Army 211
43.71 Sacramento St. 212
43.68 Florida Atlantic 213
43.49 Ball St. 214
43.41 Pacific 215
43.24 South Florida 216
43.20 Montana 217
43.10 Colgate 218
42.39 Princeton 219
42.20 Western Carolina 220
42.11 Bucknell 221
41.87 FIU 222
41.78 Idaho 223
41.76 Lehigh 224
41.73 Dartmouth 225
41.54 Cal St. Fullerton 226
41.47 Robert Morris 227
40.76 UTSA 228
40.63 Virginia Tech 229
40.61 Manhattan 230
40.55 South Dakota 231
40.00 McNeese St. 232
39.93 New Hampshire 233
39.91 Brown 234
39.67 Holy Cross 235
39.52 Nevada 236
39.51 New Orleans 237
39.37 Lipscomb 238
39.20 Northern Kentucky 239
39.16 Fairleigh Dickinson 240
39.08 Youngstown St. 241
38.77 UCF 242
38.73 Alabama St. 243
38.56 Lamar 244
38.55 Air Force 245
38.49 UC Riverside 246
38.45 Saint Louis 247
38.42 Mount St. Mary’s 248
38.00 Portland St. 249
37.76 Denver 250
37.54 Morehead St. 251
37.32 UMass Lowell 252
37.29 Southern 253
36.95 Northern Colorado 254
36.68 Campbell 255
35.18 Duquesne 256
35.09 IPFW 257
34.94 Sacred Heart 258
34.85 Navy 259
34.81 Fordham 260
34.77 VMI 261
34.67 Mississippi St. 262
34.52 Ohio 263
34.51 East Carolina 264
34.29 Winthrop 265
33.77 Milwaukee 266
33.70 IUPUI 267
33.60 Seattle 268
33.47 Southeastern Louisiana 269
33.28 Grand Canyon 270
33.28 North Texas 271
33.14 Houston Baptist 272
32.98 Nebraska Omaha 273
32.72 Towson 274
32.45 Southeast Missouri St. 275
32.27 Arkansas Little Rock 276
32.07 Bradley 277
31.34 Siena 278
31.10 Hampton 279
30.92 Howard 280
30.45 Houston 281
30.38 Miami OH 282
30.26 College of Charleston 283
30.23 Southern Miss 284
30.21 Arkansas St. 285
30.16 SIU Edwardsville 286
29.87 North Dakota 287
29.85 Troy 288
29.69 Penn 289
29.60 Loyola Marymount 290
29.50 Utah Valley 291
29.47 Texas Pan American 292
29.17 Western Illinois 293
29.10 Southern Illinois 294
28.36 Marshall 295
28.00 Fairfield 296
27.93 Jacksonville St. 297
27.41 Austin Peay 298
27.39 Appalachian St. 299
27.33 Loyola MD 300
27.27 Drexel 301
27.24 UMKC 302
26.84 The Citadel 303
26.35 Savannah St. 304
26.19 LIU Brooklyn 305
25.66 Niagara 306
25.63 Cal St. Northridge 307
25.48 Abilene Christian 308
25.23 Rice 309
24.94 Nicholls St. 310
24.67 Illinois Chicago 311
24.60 Wagner 312
24.28 Texas A&M Corpus Chris 313
24.18 Samford 314
23.79 Chicago St. 315
22.83 Longwood 316
22.71 South Alabama 317
22.53 Cal St. Bakersfield 318
22.39 Drake 319
21.34 Jackson St. 320
21.15 Kennesaw St. 321
21.14 Furman 322
20.72 South Carolina St. 323
20.13 Delaware 324
19.79 Alabama A&M 325
19.08 Stetson 326
18.96 Idaho St. 327
18.67 Presbyterian 328
18.65 Montana St. 329
18.50 Prairie View A&M 330
18.45 Southern Utah 331
18.33 UNC Greensboro 332
18.10 Liberty 333
18.00 Morgan St. 334
17.86 North Carolina A&T 335
16.81 Jacksonville 336
15.90 Coppin St. 337
14.61 Tennessee St. 338
13.60 Arkansas Pine Bluff 339
13.08 Alcorn St. 340
12.39 Grambling St. 341
11.61 Bethune Cookman 342
11.50 Binghamton 343
11.22 San Jose St. 344
10.66 Mississippi Valley St. 345
10.03 Central Connecticut 346
10.00 Marist 347
9.25 UMBC 348
9.10 Maine 349
2.49 Central Arkansas 350
1.35 Florida A&M 351