Archive

Monthly Archives: November 2014

Football Outsiders got of to a good start on Thursday, winning with the Lions. Alas, things went pear-shaped after that, with losses in Dallas and San Francisco. That left them at -$4,970,929.

Perhaps things will get a lot better for them in Jacksonville:

New York Giants @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Jacksonville +3, risking $435,689 to win $378,860

Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans

Tennessee +7, risking $13,629 to win $12,390

New Orleans Saints @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Pittsburgh -3, risking $113,815 to win $91,052

Cleveland Browns @ Buffalo Bills

Buffalo -3, risking $168,651 to win $153,319

Carolina Panthers @ Minnesota Vikings

Minnesota -2, risking $273,358 to win $248,507

San Diego Chargers @ Baltimore Ravens

Baltimore -6.5, risking $205.400 to win $205,400

Washington Redskins @ Indianapolis Colts

Indianapolis -7.5, risking $46,259 to win $46,259

Oakland Raiders @ St. Louis Rams

St. Louis -5.5, risking $171,972 to win $159,233

Cincinnati Bengals @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tampa Bay +6, risking $22,088 to win $20,452 (Edit: somehow forgot this from the original post)

Thursday recap:

Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions

Detroit -7, risking $51,492 to win $46,811

Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys

Dallas -3, risking $74,792 to win $65,607

Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers

San Francisco -1. risking $302,086 to win $274,624

I used the F+ ratings (found here: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/feiplus) to judge the difficulty of the schedule. I used a team with a neutral field pythag rating of .900 as the control. I am assuming that Alabama faces Missouri in the SEC championship game, that Ohio St. faces Wisconsin in the Big 10 championship game, and that UCLA and Oregon face each other in the Pac 10 championship game. The results:

Alabama 1.59% X-0
8.92% X-1
10.51% X-1 or better
Oregon 7.60% X-0
23.84% X-1
31.44% X-1 or better
FSU 4.61% X-0
17.64% X-1
22.25% X-1 or better
Mississippi St. 1.57% X-0
11.25% X-1
12.82% X-1 or better
TCU 7.98% X-0
26.83% X-1
34.80% X-1 or better
Ohio St. 7.27% X-0
22.96% X-1
30.22% X-1 or better
Baylor 8.22% X-0
27.09% X-1
35.32% X-1 or better
UCLA 2.04% X-0
10.46% X-1
12.50% X-1 or better

Just some food for thought. Remember, when it comes to college football and invitations to the championship series, “Deserve’s got nothing to do with it.”

A tough morning dropped Football Outsiders to -$4,936,223. Perhaps they’ll have better luck out on the West.

Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks

Arizona +7.5, risking $240,321 to win $222,519

St. Louis Rams @ San Diego Chargers

St. Louis +5, risking $275,099 to win $261,999

Miami Dolphins @ Denver Broncos

Miami Dolphins +6.5, risking $127,294 to win $121,232

Washington Redskins @ San Francisco 49ers

Washington +10, risking $43,030 to win $39,477

I’ll post this evening sometime around 8:45.