2019 NFL Draft Grades

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2019 NFL Draft Grades

(Update: Links to the positional grades and comments)

Quarterbacks

Running Backs

Wide Receivers

Tight Ends

Offensive Linemen

Defensive Linemen

Edge Rushers

Linebackers

Cornerbacks

Safeties

 

 

I was working on doing adjustments for positional value and ultimately failed to find a framework I was happy with. I know that if we were accounting for positional value, my top five would be Haskins, Murray, Bosa, Williams, Allen.

My theory was that I wanted to solve for which players would sign for most money if they were all entering the league as free agents. I ran into two problems:

1. The market for quarterbacks is complicated. Quality quarterbacks generally aren’t available in free agency or for trade. That makes the draft the best (and only) option for landing a franchise QB.
2. The delta in value between elite players and average players varies by position. It’s particularly extreme for edge pass-rushers. I can’t just apply a blanket positional adjustment.

Three of my top five players are non-edge front-seven defenders. How much should I dock them for their role? I don’t know and any answer I provided would be “making shit up.”

I’ll begin writeups next week. For those interested in checking out previous years for reference:

Rich@richjmadrid

 · Apr 4, 2019

Replying to @richjmadrid and 2 others

How accurate has this been in the past?

Seth Burn@SethBurn

Fair question: The last five years are online:

2014: https://sethburn.wordpress.com/2014/04/17/defensive-rankings/ …
2015: https://sethburn.wordpress.com/2015/04/16/2015-nfl-draft-grades/ …
2016: https://sethburn.wordpress.com/2016/04/12/2016-nfl-draft-ratings/ …
2017: https://sethburn.wordpress.com/2017/04/27/full-set-of-nfl-draft-links/ …
2018: https://sethburn.wordpress.com/2018/04/26/full-set-of-2018-draft-links/ …

2

8:24 PM – Apr 4, 2019

Twitter Ads info and privacy

Full set of 2018 Draft Links

The Quarterbacks. The Running Backs. The Receivers. The Offensive Linemen. The Defensive Tackles. The Defensive Ends. The Linebackers. The Defensive Backs. And finally, you can find my top 300 belo…

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See Seth Burn’s other Tweets

FYI, my favorite thing about these ratings are the fact that my top three cornerbacks are bunched 14-16. After that there is a huge drop off to the fourth, at #40th overall.

 

Rank	Name	SCHOOL	Position	Grade
1	Quinnen Williams*	Alabama	DT	96.43
2	Nick Bosa*	Ohio State	DE	94.21
3	Josh Allen	Kentucky	OLB	91.32
4	Ed Oliver*	Houston	DT	89.10
5	Devin White*	LSU	ILB	88.09
6	T.J. Hockenson*	Iowa	TE	86.22
7	Clelin Ferrell*	Clemson	DE	86.11
8	Jeffery Simmons*	Mississippi State	DT	85.39
9	Jonah Williams*	Alabama	OT	85.35
10	Christian Wilkins	Clemson	DT	85.11
11	Rashan Gary*	Michigan	DE	85.01
12	Montez Sweat	Mississippi State	DE	84.73
13	D.K. Metcalf*	Ole Miss	WR	84.51
14	Andraez Greedy Williams*	LSU	CB	83.88
15	Byron Murphy*	Washington	CB	83.49
16	Deandre Baker	Georgia	CB	83.06
17	Noah Fant*	Iowa	TE	82.64
18	Brian Burns*	Florida State	OLB	82.60
19	Dwayne Haskins*	Ohio State	QB	82.41
20	Jawaan Taylor*	Florida	OT	82.21
21	Devin Bush*	Michigan	ILB	81.72
22	Josh Jacobs*	Alabama	RB	81.28
23	Kyler Murray*	Oklahoma	QB	81.08
24	Marquise Brown*	Oklahoma	WR	81.03
25	Cody Ford*	Oklahoma	OT	80.82
26	N’Keal Harry*	Arizona State	WR	80.49
27	Dexter Lawrence*	Clemson	DT	80.38
28	Garrett Bradbury	NC State	C	79.93
29	Chris Lindstrom	Boston College	G	79.92
30	Chauncey Gardner-Johnson*	Florida	S	79.03
31	Irv Smith Jr.*	Alabama	TE	78.81
32	A.J. Brown*	Ole Miss	WR	78.70
33	Nasir Adderley	Delaware	S	78.16
34	Dalton Risner	Kansas State	OT	77.89
35	Jerry Tillery	Notre Dame	DT	77.81
36	Andre Dillard	Washington State	OT	77.72
37	Erik McCoy*	Texas A&M	C	77.67
38	Deionte Thompson*	Alabama	S	77.22
39	Taylor Rapp*	Washington	S	77.09
40	Trayvon Mullen*	Clemson	CB	74.99
41	Deebo Samuel	South Carolina	WR	74.97
42	Parris Campbell	Ohio State	WR	74.90
43	Drew Lock	Missouri	QB	74.85
44	Jachai Polite*	Florida	DE	74.77
45	Amani Oruwariye	Penn State	CB	74.64
46	Mack Wilson*	Alabama	ILB	74.56
47	Rock Ya-Sin	Temple	CB	74.55
48	Johnathan Abram	Mississippi State	S	73.77
49	Dre’Mont Jones*	Ohio State	DT	73.44
50	Kelvin Harmon*	NC State	WR	73.24
51	Julian Love*	Notre Dame	CB	73.01
52	Daniel Jones*	Duke	QB	72.38
53	Amani Hooker*	Iowa	S	72.04
54	Michael Deiter	Wisconsin	G	71.94
55	JJ Arcega-Whiteside	Stanford	WR	71.56
56	Zach Allen	Boston College	DT	71.48
57	Elgton Jenkins	Mississippi State	C	70.83
58	Chase Winovich	Michigan	DE	70.81
59	Darnell Savage Jr.	Maryland	CB	70.04
60	Damien Harris	Alabama	RB	69.71
61	Jaylon Ferguson	Louisiana Tech	DE	69.68
62	Hakeem Butler*	Iowa State	WR	69.58
63	Yodny Cajuste	West Virginia	OT	68.82
64	Gerald Willis III	Miami	DT	68.74
65	Riley Ridley*	Georgia	WR	68.59
66	Greg Little*	Ole Miss	OT	68.38
67	Kaleb McGary	Washington	OT	68.20
68	Darrell Henderson*	Memphis	RB	68.16
69	Vosean Joseph*	Florida	OLB	67.53
70	Juan Thornhill	Virginia	S	67.47
71	D’Andre Walker	Georgia	OLB	66.76
72	David Edwards*	Wisconsin	OT	66.73
73	Bobby Evans*	Oklahoma	OT	66.43
74	Nate Davis	Charlotte	G	65.40
75	Trayveon Williams*	Texas A&M	RB	65.04
76	Joe Jackson*	Miami	DE	64.94
77	Andy Isabella	UMass	WR	64.78
78	Dru Samia	Oklahoma	G	64.62
79	Charles Omenihu	Texas	DT	64.52
80	Lonnie Johnson Jr.	Kentucky	CB	64.48
81	Connor McGovern*	Penn State	G	64.20
82	Jace Sternberger*	Texas A&M	TE	64.16
83	Oshane Ximines	Old Dominion	DE	64.07
84	Justin Layne*	Michigan State	CB	64.02
85	Emanuel Hall	Missouri	WR	63.91
86	David Montgomery*	Iowa State	RB	63.84
87	Kendall Sheffield*	Ohio State	CB	63.82
88	Tytus Howard	Alabama State	OT	63.70
89	Jarrett Stidham*	Auburn	QB	63.64
90	L.J. Collier	TCU	DT	63.38
91	Germaine Pratt	NC State	OLB	63.09
92	Michael Jordan*	Ohio State	G	62.87
93	Jaquan Johnson	Miami	S	62.71
94	Will Grier	West Virginia	QB	62.71
95	Miles Sanders*	Penn State	RB	62.49
96	Max Scharping	Northern Illinois	OT	62.09
97	Drue Tranquill	Notre Dame	ILB	61.56
98	Beau Benzschawel	Wisconsin	G	61.45
99	Saivion Smith*	Alabama	CB	61.41
100	Ben Banogu	TCU	OLB	61.33
101	Devin Singletary*	Florida Atlantic	RB	61.15
102	Marvell Tell III	USC	S	61.07
103	David Long Jr.*	West Virginia	OLB	60.57
104	Josh Oliver	San Jose State	TE	60.57
105	Anthony Nelson*	Iowa	DE	60.51
106	Kaden Smith*	Stanford	TE	60.35
107	Ben Powers	Oklahoma	G	60.27
108	Te’Von Coney	Notre Dame	ILB	60.17
109	Chase Hansen	Utah	OLB	59.60
110	Isaiah Buggs	Alabama	DT	59.60
111	Terrill Hanks	New Mexico State	ILB	59.44
112	Joejuan Williams*	Vanderbilt	CB	59.42
113	Rodney Anderson*	Oklahoma	RB	59.14
114	Kris Boyd	Texas	CB	59.01
115	Terry McLaurin	Ohio State	WR	58.83
116	Justice Hill*	Oklahoma State	RB	58.53
117	Dontavius Russell	Auburn	DT	58.52
118	Ross Pierschbacher	Alabama	C	58.50
119	Mecole Hardman*	Georgia	WR	57.83
120	Caleb Wilson*	UCLA	TE	57.61
121	Ryan Finley	NC State	QB	57.50
122	Isaac Nauta*	Georgia	TE	57.43
123	Tre Lamar*	Clemson	ILB	57.25
124	David Sills V	West Virginia	WR	57.16
125	Austin Bryant	Clemson	DE	57.07
126	Jamel Dean*	Auburn	CB	56.95
127	Terry Beckner Jr.	Missouri	DT	56.75
128	David Long*	Michigan	CB	56.73
129	Benny Snell Jr.*	Kentucky	RB	56.66
130	Justin Hollins	Oregon	OLB	56.63
131	Lil’Jordan Humphrey*	Texas	WR	56.61
132	Jalen Jelks	Oregon	DE	56.39
133	Mike Edwards	Kentucky	S	56.35
134	Drew Sample	Washington	TE	56.27
135	Sheldrick Redwine	Miami	S	56.20
136	Isaiah Johnson	Houston	CB	55.94
137	Khalen Saunders	Western Illinois	DT	55.85
138	Miles Boykin	Notre Dame	WR	55.70
139	Tyree Jackson*	Buffalo	QB	55.58
140	Renell Wren	Arizona State	DT	55.21
141	Dawson Knox*	Ole Miss	TE	54.79
142	Tommy Sweeney	Boston College	TE	54.77
143	Bobby Okereke	Stanford	OLB	54.77
144	Cameron Smith	USC	ILB	54.41
145	Antoine Wesley*	Texas Tech	WR	54.39
146	Sean Bunting*	Central Michigan	CB	54.27
147	Mitch Hyatt	Clemson	OT	54.09
148	Michael Jackson	Miami	CB	53.82
149	Alize Mack	Notre Dame	TE	53.71
150	Anthony Johnson	Buffalo	WR	53.68
151	Christian Miller	Alabama	OLB	53.49
152	Kingsley Keke	Texas A&M	DT/DE	53.38
153	Hamp Cheevers*	Boston College	CB	52.72
154	Lamont Gaillard	Georgia	C	52.50
155	Hunter Renfrow	Clemson	WR	52.10
156	Demarcus Christmas	Florida State	DT	51.97
157	Dennis Daley	South Carolina	OT	51.97
158	Clayton Thorson	Northwestern	QB	51.95
159	Chuma Edoga	USC	OT/OG	51.80
160	T.J. Edwards	Wisconsin	ILB	51.77
161	Jalen Hurd	Baylor	WR	51.64
162	Bryce Love	Stanford	RB	51.61
163	Jonathan Ledbetter	Georgia	DE/DT	51.58
164	Elijah Holyfield*	Georgia	RB	51.57
165	Maxx Crosby*	Eastern Michigan	DE	51.05
166	Trysten Hill*	UCF	DT	50.83
167	Mike Weber*	Ohio State	RB	50.69
168	Gary Jennings Jr.	West Virginia	WR	50.55
169	Ryan Connelly	Wisconsin	ILB	50.54
170	Sutton Smith*	Northern Illinois	OLB	50.41
171	Jordan Brailford*	Oklahoma State	DE	50.40
172	Byron Cowart*	Maryland	DT	50.37
173	Myles Gaskin	Washington	RB	50.31
174	Carl Granderson	Wyoming	DE	50.18
175	Kahale Warring*	San Diego State	TE	50.10
176	Isaiah Prince	Ohio State	OT	50.04
177	Will Harris	Boston College	S	49.89
178	Keesean Johnson	Fresno State	WR	49.88
179	Greg Dortch*	Wake Forest	WR	49.71
180	Darius Slayton*	Auburn	WR	49.47
181	Jakobi Meyers*	NC State	WR	49.45
182	Marquise Blair	Utah	S	49.35
183	Gardner Minshew	Washington State	QB	49.25
184	Terry Godwin	Georgia	WR	49.02
185	Corey Ballentine	Washburn	CB	48.98
186	Jamal Peters	Mississippi State	CB	48.98
187	Karan Higdon	Michigan	RB	48.76
188	Preston Williams*	Colorado State	WR	48.70
189	Penny Hart*	Georgia State	WR	48.63
190	Lukas Denis	Boston College	S	48.19
191	Daylon Mack	Texas A&M	DT	48.15
192	Foster Moreau	LSU	TE	48.11
193	Dax Raymond*	Utah State	TE	47.90
194	Dre Greenlaw	Arkansas	OLB	47.78
195	Javon Patterson	Ole Miss	C/G	47.66
196	Olisaemeka Udoh	Elon	OT/G	47.61
197	Greg Gaines	Washington	DT	47.58
198	Devine Ozigbo	Nebraska	RB	47.43
199	Brett Rypien	Boise State	QB	47.43
200	Shareef Miller*	Penn State	DE	47.41
201	Khari Willis	Michigan State	S	47.31
202	Mike Bell*	Fresno State	S	47.23
203	Nate Herbig*	Stanford	OG	46.96
204	Ryquell Armstead	Temple	RB	46.62
205	Iman Marshall	USC	CB	46.48
206	Alexander Mattison*	Boise State	RB	46.28
207	Sione Takitaki	BYU	OLB	46.12
208	Jordan Miller	Washington	CB	45.99
209	Stanley Morgan Jr.	Nebraska	WR	45.86
210	Diontae Johnson*	Toledo	WR	45.66
211	Derwin Gray	Maryland	OT/G	45.57
212	DaMarkus Lodge	Ole Miss	WR	45.47
213	Jahlani Tavai	Hawai’i	ILB	45.24
214	Joe Giles-Harris*	Duke	OLB	44.21
215	Jordan Brown	South Dakota State	CB	43.98
216	John Cominsky	Charleston (WV)	DT/DE	43.84
217	Tony Pollard*	Memphis	RB	43.81
218	Phil Haynes	Wake Forest	OG	43.77
219	Daniel Wise	Kansas	DT	43.56
220	Blessuan Austin	Rutgers	CB	43.52
221	Ugo Amadi	Oregon	S/CB	43.45
222	Mark Fields	Clemson	CB	43.43
223	Alex Wesley	Northern Colorado	WR	43.40
224	Felton Davis III	Michigan State	WR	43.33
225	Jalin Moore	Appalachian State	RB	43.31
226	B.J. Autry	Jacksonville State	OG	43.24
227	Dexter Williams	Notre Dame	RB	43.21
228	Martez Ivey	Florida	OG/OT	43.11
229	Anthony Ratliff-Williams*	North Carolina	WR	42.80
230	Paul Adams	Missouri	OT	42.69
231	Emeke Egbule	Houston	OLB	42.69
232	Kevin Givens*	Penn State	DT	42.53
233	Andrew Van Ginkel	Wisconsin	OLB	42.18
234	Khalil Hodge	Buffalo	ILB	42.04
235	Dakota Allen	Texas Tech	ILB	42.01
236	Montre Hartage	Northwestern	CB	41.74
237	Porter Gustin	USC	OLB	41.67
238	Ben Burr-Kirven	Washington	ILB	41.52
239	Jimmy Moreland	James Madison	CB	41.31
240	Tyre Brady	Marshall	WR	41.17
241	Alex Bars	Notre Dame	OG	40.96
242	Hjalte Froholdt	Arkansas	OG	40.87
243	Nyqwan Murray	Florida State	WR	40.83
244	Wyatt Ray	Boston College	DE	40.58
245	Cody Thompson	Toledo	WR	40.42
246	Terez Hall	Missouri	OLB	40.06
247	Blace Brown	Troy	CB	40.06
248	James Williams*	Washington State	RB	40.04
249	Jervontius Bunchy Stallings	Kentucky	OG	39.92
250	Tyler Jones	NC State	OG/T	39.89
251	LJ Scott	Michigan State	RB	39.87
252	Mitch Wishnowsky	Utah	P	39.49
253	Otaro Alaka	Texas A&M	LB	39.32
254	Easton Stick	North Dakota State	QB	39.31
255	Josiah Tauaefa*	UTSA	ILB	39.28
256	Chris Slayton	Syracuse	DT	39.25
257	D’Cota Dixon	Wisconsin	S	39.17
258	Rashad Fenton	South Carolina	CB	39.08
259	Kendall Joseph	Clemson	ILB	39.06
260	Fred Johnson	Florida	OG	38.97
261	Cece Jefferson	Florida	OLB/DE	38.92
262	Alex Barnes*	Kansas State	RB	38.84
263	Ryan Bates*	Penn State	OT	38.68
264	Nick Brossette	LSU	RB	38.62
265	Qadree Ollison	Pittsburgh	RB	38.62
266	Zach Gentry	Michigan	TE	38.58
267	Dillon Mitchell*	Oregon	WR	38.52
268	Trevon Wesco	West Virginia	TE	38.25
269	Darius West	Kentucky	S	38.20
270	Evan Worthington	Colorado	S	38.17
271	Jackson Barton	Utah	OT	37.88
272	Deshaun Davis	Auburn	ILB	37.75
273	Calvin Anderson	Texas	OT	37.69
274	Tyrel Dodson	Texas A&M	LB	37.67
275	Landis Durham	Texas A&M	OLB	37.58
276	Trace McSorley	Penn State	QB	37.25
277	Jordan Scarlett*	Florida	RB	37.23
278	Matt Gay	Utah	K	37.21
279	Saquan Hampton	Rutgers	S	37.02
280	Chidi Okeke*	Tennessee State	OT	36.97
281	Keelan Doss	UC Davis	WR	36.82
282	Andrew Wingard	Wyoming	S	36.80
283	Blake Cashman	Minnesota	LB	36.56
284	Jazz Ferguson*	Northwestern State	WR	36.49
285	Yosuah Nijman	Virginia Tech	OT	36.47
286	Jordan Ta’amu	Ole Miss	QB	36.44
287	Donnell Greene	Minnesota	OT	36.32
288	Travis Homer*	Miami	RB	36.28
289	Jake Bailey	Stanford	P	36.19
290	Albert Huggins	Clemson	DT	36.04
291	Alec Eberle	Florida State	C	36.02
292	Jaylen Smith	Louisville	WR	35.93
293	Jonathan Crawford	Indiana	S	35.92
294	Andre James*	UCLA	OT	35.86
295	Derrek Thomas	Baylor	CB	35.85
296	Johnnie Dixon	Ohio State	WR	35.84
297	Terronne Prescod	NC State	OG	35.78
298	Tyler Roemer*	San Diego State	OT	35.53
299	Armon Watts	Arkansas	DT	35.44
300	Ryan Anderson	Wake Forest	C	35.27

2019 NFL Draft: The Safeties

1	Chauncey Gardner-Johnson*	Florida	S	79.03
2	Nasir Adderley	Delaware	S	78.16
3	Deionte Thompson*	Alabama	S	77.22
4	Taylor Rapp*	Washington	S	77.09
5	Johnathan Abram	Mississippi State	S	73.77
6	Amani Hooker*	Iowa	S	72.04
7	Juan Thornhill	Virginia	S	67.47
8	Jaquan Johnson	Miami	S	62.71
9	Marvell Tell III	USC	S	61.07
10	Mike Edwards	Kentucky	S	56.35
11	Sheldrick Redwine	Miami	S	56.20
12	Will Harris	Boston College	S	49.89
13	Marquise Blair	Utah	S	49.35
14	Lukas Denis	Boston College	S	48.19
15	Khari Willis	Michigan State	S	47.31
16	Mike Bell*	Fresno State	S	47.23

Safeties have seen their perceived value drop relative to cornerbacks. I’m not certain we’ll see a safety come off the board day one.

–

Chauncey Gardner-Johnson: Tremendously frustrating tape. He has the talent and athleticism to make far more plays than he does. His reaction time is a problem. Additionally, when teams schemed specifically to attack him, he was a soft target.

He has too much upside to stay on the board long into day two, but your coaching staff better have plan for how to use him and how to teach him to handle whatever role you envision him playing. On paper he has the range to play free safety, with the size to cover tight ends. We’ll see how that works out.

–

Nasir Adderley: He looked fast on film, but it was vs. CAA competition so it’s tricky to gauge. When he was given a shot against the best at the Senior, he dominated. He’s played both cornerback and safety. I’m not sure if he’ll be a free safety, a nickel cornerback, or even a potential #1CB in the pros. Adderly might not have the raw athleticism of Gardner-Johnson, but he makes up for it in play speed. He’s going to gain a ton from proper coaching. I’d take Adderley early in round two, and maybe even at the tail end of the first round.

–

Deionte Thompson: I can’t get the Oklahoma and Clemson games out of my mind. Thompson only started for one season. He was playing quite well, but in the biggest games things went south. You’d figure a four-star recruit with three seasons of training at Alabama would be no worse than a day two pick, but I’m not so sure. He’s a quality athlete who attacks the ball aggressively. Did he just have a couple of bad days? I guess he’d be a speculative round three pick for me.

–

Taylor Rapp: There are rumors his stock is falling into third-round territory. He ran a 4.77-40 at his pro day, but I’m going to cut him some slack. He was still recovering from an injured hamstring. His film was excellent. I’m confident Rapp will succeed in the NFL and I see him as a second-round value.

–

Johnathan Abram: He’s too small to be a weakside linebacker, but that’s the natural fit for his skill-set. He’ll be a box-safety and nickel linebacker. I admire his aggressiveness and short-coverage skills. I wouldn’t want to trust his range in deep coverage. Late day two pick for me.

–

Amani Hooker: Similar to Abram. Which one you like more depends on what you value. Abram is more athletic. Hooker has better play recognition skills and fantastic hands.. Hooker doesn’t have the range you want from a safety. If your defense doesn’t need him to fly around the field, he’ll do good work for you. He might fall in the draft if teams are skeptical about his athleticism. If that happens, someone is going to get a nice value pickup.

–

Juan Thornhill: I love Thornhill. He attacked the ball in the air as well as anyone in college football. He’s a plus athlete and unafraid of getting physical. I expect he’ll sneak into the top 50, but if he doesn’t, he’s another nice value pickup.

–

Jaquan Johnson: I regret watching film on him. He’s day three material.

–

Marvell Tell: Let me put this delicately. USC fell apart last season. Tell wasn’t part of the solution. His tackling is laughably poor. He runs around the field quite swiftly, but doesn’t do much to help his team while doing so. I guess he’s a day three pick, but I can’t say I want him on my roster.

 

2019 NFL Draft: The Cornerbacks

1	Andraez Greedy Williams*	LSU	CB	83.88
2	Byron Murphy*	Washington	CB	83.49
3	Deandre Baker	Georgia	CB	83.06
4	Trayvon Mullen*	Clemson	CB	74.99
5	Amani Oruwariye	Penn State	CB	74.64
6	Rock Ya-Sin	Temple	CB	74.55
7	Julian Love*	Notre Dame	CB	73.01
8	Darnell Savage Jr.	Maryland	CB	70.04
9	Lonnie Johnson Jr.	Kentucky	CB	64.48
10	Justin Layne*	Michigan State	CB	64.02
11	Kendall Sheffield*	Ohio State	CB	63.82
12	Saivion Smith*	Alabama	CB	61.41
13	Joejuan Williams*	Vanderbilt	CB	59.42
14	Kris Boyd	Texas	CB	59.01
15	Jamel Dean*	Auburn	CB	56.95
16	David Long*	Michigan	CB	56.73
17	Isaiah Johnson	Houston	CB	55.94
18	Sean Bunting*	Central Michigan	CB	54.27
19	Michael Jackson	Miami	CB	53.82
20	Hamp Cheevers*	Boston College	CB	52.72
21	Corey Ballentine	Washburn	CB	48.98
22	Jamal Peters	Mississippi State	CB	48.98

There is starting to be some talk that elite cornerbacks are more important than elite pass-rushers. The theory goes that if you take away the quarterback’s first option, you’ll generate coverage sacks. There’s obviously some truth to that reasoning, but it has some issues as well. Better quarterbacks are quite proficient at spreading the ball around. If a cornerback wins in coverage, a good quarterback can swiftly switch to plan B. If a defensive end beats his man, a good quarterback can end up on the ground.

There’s also the issue of cascade effects. A good pass-rusher can force offenses to gameplan around stopping him. A good cornerback can take a #1WR out of the game, and free up safeties to help cover the rest of the receivers. Both are good to have, but which is more valuable? On a play-by-play basis, it’s the pass-rusher. However, there’s more to take into account.

A good cornerback might play every down, A good pass-rusher will usually need to rest more often or see his productivity drop. Teams have shown they value #1CB’s quite a bit, but they still value elite pass-rushers more. Ultimately I think that’s correct. The better the opposing quarterback, the more important it is to pressure him and take the ball out of his hands. Revis Island was a great experience. I’m just not sure it’s the same as a visit to the Sack Exchange.

Oddly, I have the top three cornerbacks in a tight cluster. I don’t think that is the general consensus.

–

Greedy Williams: It’s very hard not to fall in love with his measurables. He’s 6-2, 185, with a 4.37-40. His film backed that up. You could argue he should add more muscle to his frame so that he could be more physical in coverage. I’m sure whoever drafts will bulk him up to his optimal playing weight.

His vision is questionable. He should have made plays on the ball than he did. He’s also prone to swipe at a receivers hands instead of at the ball, which can lead to some bad penalties if his timing is off. Williams has the highest ceiling of any cornerback in the draft, so it’s just a question of who wants to gamble on his potential the earliest.

–

Bryon Murphy: Seven interceptions in eighty-seven targets. That’s incredible. If he didn’t intercept it, there was a good shot he tipped it away. Excellent quickness and physicality. Height and speed are where there are concerns (5-11, 4.55-40). Those aren’t optimal numbers for a #1CB.

If he can’t start outside he’s capable of being a premier nickel cornerback. He has the skills to cover the slot and add quality support against the run. It will be very interesting to see who comes off the board first.

–

Deandre Baker: I don’t know whether to praise him for snagging five interceptions (while allowing zero touchdowns), or slag him for not having more. His hands weren’t great, which is a source of frustration for his coaches. He played faster than his 4.52-40 time would suggest.

It was Baker, not Murphy or Williams that won the Thorpe Award for the best defensive back last season. I’d still take both of them ahead of Baker. Like Murphy, there are questions of whether or not he has the size and speed to play outside. Unlike Murphy, I’m not sold he’s a natural fit at nickel. I think Baker might be a nice fit in a zone scheme where his ballhawk skills would be at a premium. He’d be my third cornerback off the board.

–

Trayvon Mullen: Grade: Incomplete. Reason: Teams never threw at him. He has the size and speed you are looking for in a #1CB. I could see him as the second cornerback off the board. I could see him fall to day two. I have no idea what to make of him. From what I could tell he was very good, but not as good as the players I have listed above him.

–

Amani Oruwariye: Like Mullen, he has the size and speed you want outside. Unlike Mullen, he got his ass kicked on film. He wasn’t very good at accelerating after cuts and breaks. I liked his physicality and his length. Pretty good hands too. He’s a solid matchup against physical wide receivers. You’d have to trust his jam in press coverage against the nimbler receivers. I don’t think I’d take Amani until the third-round.

–

Rock Ya-Sin: When everyone hopes you fall to them in round two, you ain’t falling to them in round two. His film was fantastic. Even when he made a mistake, it was because he was trying to be aggressive and make a play. Mentally he was always in the game. He will improve a lot with NFL coaching correcting flaws in his technique. I have Ya-Sin below the top three, but ahead of Amani. I have no idea what to do with Mullen.

–

Julian Love: Another guy with great film but poor measurables. 5-11, 4.54-40 isn’t what scouts are dreaming of. He made more than his fair share of plays for Notre Dame. The concerns about his physicality are legitimate. He wasn’t a great tackler for a guy so good at moving to the ball. I’d still be fine with using a second round pick on him. He played fast and smart. Let the coaches bulk him up and teach him how to bring guys down.

–

Darnell Savage: He’s not a true cornerback or safety, but when you run a 4.36-40, teams will find a job for you. He has solid cover skills, good hands, and breakaway speed. He was effective at working through traffic to bring down ballcarriers. I’m not sure what role he’ll end up playing, but I figure he’s worth a second round pick regardless.

–

Lonnie Johnson: I don’t want to be discriminatory, but when your religion forbids you from making a play on the ball, I don’t want to draft you to play cornerback for me. He looks the part (6-2, 213) with a decent 4.52-40. It just didn’t show up on film. I want no part of Johnson.

–

Justin Layne: Ability to get his hands on the ball: A+. Ability to catch the ball if he gets his hands on it: D-. I see there was a reason why Michigan State’s coaching staff moved him from receiver to cornerback. He has excellent reaction speed and vision. Not particularly interested in providing assistance against the run. He’s a quality defender and should come off the board day two.

–

My algorithms liked Kendall Sheffield and Saivion Smith, but look for both to be available day three. Joejuan Williams, David Long, Sean Bunting, and Jamel Dean will all come off the board first. I think my numbers underrated Williams. Not sure about the rest.

 

2019 NFL Draft: The Inside Linebackers

1	Devin White*	LSU	ILB	88.09
2	Devin Bush*	Michigan	ILB	81.72
3	Mack Wilson*	Alabama	ILB	74.56
4	Drue Tranquill	Notre Dame	ILB	61.56
5	Te’Von Coney	Notre Dame	ILB	60.17
6	Terrill Hanks	New Mexico State	ILB	59.44
7	Tre Lamar*	Clemson	ILB	57.25
8	Cameron Smith	USC	ILB	54.41
9	T.J. Edwards	Wisconsin	ILB	51.77
10	Ryan Connelly	Wisconsin	ILB	50.54

This is a short list.

–

Devin White: Absurdly productive at LSU. Backed it up at the combine. He’s an elite prospect with room for improvement. He’s a converted running back and he’s still learning the position. When he knows his job, he’s fantastic. When he has to diagnose his role, he’s 50-50 to make the correct decision. He’ll improve with experience and proper coaching. His strength and speed are exceptional. The only real issue he’ll face is positional value as he doesn’t rush the quarterback or shut down wide receivers. If you need an inside linebacker, grab him very early.

–

Devin Bush: I watch the film and I see an oversized safety. He’s going to be a weakside linebacker (Will) in the NFL. He has excellent range and agility, as well as above-average vision. What he lacks is size and power. Frankly, he seems well adapted to the modern NFL. He’s a clear step down from White, but well above anyone else available this draft at the position. He should come off the board mid-to-late round one.

–

Mack Wilson: Maybe it’s because he was surrounded by so much elite talent, but Wilson looked like “just a guy” to me. He did his job, but rarely impressed. I guess his hands might be exceptional, but it’s hard to read too much into a sample size of six interceptions. I guess not everyone can be a star, and defenses need eleven guys out there who do can their jobs. Wilson can do his job, so he’s a middle of day two pick for me.

–

Drue Tranquill: I’m not really sure why I am giving Tranquill a writeup. He doesn’t have the size, strength, or athleticism to move the needle. Day three pick. His teammate Te’Von Coney is a better prospect. I’m embarrassed for wasting your time.

2019 NFL Draft: The Edge Rushers

1	Nick Bosa*	Ohio State	DE	94.21
2	Josh Allen	Kentucky	OLB	91.32
3	Clelin Ferrell*	Clemson	DE	86.11
4	Rashan Gary*	Michigan	DE	85.01
5	Montez Sweat	Mississippi State	DE	84.73
6	Brian Burns*	Florida State	OLB	82.60
7	Jachai Polite*	Florida	DE	74.77
8	Chase Winovich	Michigan	DE	70.81
9	Jaylon Ferguson	Louisiana Tech	DE	69.68
10	Vosean Joseph*	Florida	OLB	67.53
11	D’Andre Walker	Georgia	OLB	66.76
12	Joe Jackson*	Miami	DE	64.94
13	Oshane Ximines	Old Dominion	DE	64.07
14	Germaine Pratt	NC State	OLB	63.09
15	Ben Banogu	TCU	OLB	61.33
16	David Long Jr.*	West Virginia	OLB	60.57
17	Anthony Nelson*	Iowa	DE	60.51
18	Chase Hansen	Utah	OLB	59.60
19	Austin Bryant	Clemson	DE	57.07
20	Justin Hollins	Oregon	OLB	56.63
21	Jalen Jelks	Oregon	DE	56.39
22	Bobby Okereke	Stanford	OLB	54.77
23	Christian Miller	Alabama	OLB	53.49
24	Maxx Crosby*	Eastern Michigan	DE	51.05
25	Sutton Smith*	Northern Illinois	OLB	50.41
26	Jordan Brailford*	Oklahoma State	DE	50.40
27	Carl Granderson	Wyoming	DE	50.18
28	Dre Greenlaw	Arkansas	OLB	47.78
29	Shareef Miller*	Penn State	DE	47.41

This is an unusually deep class of edge rushers, but given the level of need for them, expect them to come off the board early and often.

–

Nick Bosa: Massively productive in college. Don’t worry about muscles that caused him to miss most of his junior season. He’s 100% ready to start in the NFL. What concerns me is his combine. I like to see someone like him have one explosive result, be it quickness, agility, or raw power. Bosa was solid across the board, but nothing more. His brother was marginally better in college (although Nick was on pace to surpass him if he kept up his torrid early season production). His brother also had a more explosive combine.

The point here isn’t to slag Nick. I’m just making it clear that he might not be quite as good as Joey Bosa. I can’t really argue with him being the first non-QB off the board. I might be a tad concerned that his ceiling isn’t as high as we’d hope. He more than makes up for that with the highest floor imaginable. He’s demonstrated almost every skill you’d want a defensive end to have. He can attack the line of scrimmage, is effective vs. double-blocking, and can hold the point of attack against the run. I’m not sure about his zone-blitz coverage skills, but that’s not likely to be an important part of his job. Bosa is a solid AF selection. Just not as sexy of one as I had first anticipated.

–

Josh Allen: It’s not just that his stats were so good. It’s that they were so good despite the fact opposing teams were scheming hard to shut him down. You can see how hard Penn State worked to take him out of the game. Three sacks later…

Yes he still has a lot of work to do to improve his technique. His inside rush moves and his counter moves aren’t close to where they will be after a few years of NFL training. His upside is enormous. His outside rush is terrifying and it reminds me a bit of Lawrence Taylor, which is the highest praise I can give. Allen is a potential monster and I look forward to welcoming him to the New York Jets.

–

Clelin Ferrell: I love him for the first 3.5 seconds or so. He’s great off the snap with a solid pass-rush repertoire. Excellent power. He’s solid at chasing down the quarterback. However, if the play continues, he slows down. I’m not sure if it’s a mental thing where he’s less sure of what he should be doing. He’s not a great open-field tackler when he doesn’t already have a clear lane of pursuit. Additionally, his game stamina was a clear problem and something he’ll need to work on. I like Ferrell and see him as a solid early first-round pick. I don’t think he’s close to the two players listed above him.

I should note that his combine wasn’t great. That, plus the fact that offenses weren’t able to key on him at Clemson makes his draft profile curiously suspect. For the record, SACKSEER hates him.

–

Rashan Gary: It’s hard not to fall in love with the size and athleticism Gary can give you, but let me provide a few words of caution. His collegiate production wasn’t elite. He has a shoulder injury that will eventually need surgery. He doesn’t have great instincts, either in terms of winning battles at the line of scrimmage, or diagnosing plays and beating the offense to the spot. Frankly, his film was uninspiring. Pair that with a medical red flag and I want no part of Gary given he’s coming off the board in the first round. Pass.

–

Montez Sweat: Is there such a thing as a great finesse pass-rusher? I adored Sweat’s film. He didn’t blow me away with his power as much as his athleticism and his technique. He backed that up with a fantastic combine. He’s a SACKSEER favorite due to his high production and elite athleticism. I know I would strongly prefer to pick Sweat than Gary. I think I like Sweat more than Ferrell as well, although they bring different skills to the table. Sweat should be a highly productive pro at a position that teams desperately need. He’ll deservedly go off the board early.

–

Brian Burns: The biggest boom-bust prospect on the board. I see an unusually large likelihood that his shit won’t work in the pros. His speed and athleticism are elite AF, but there’s comically little power. Will he be able to dominate NFL tackles with pure speed? Or will it be curtains for Burns once they get their hands on him? Amazing athleticism. Elite production. SACKSEER favorite. I am skeptical though. He might be the best pass-rusher in the draft. Or he might get shut down. I’d take Burns ahead of Gary, but that’s about it. Maybe I’d miss out on a star. Maybe I’d miss out on a bust. This stuff is hard.

–

Jachai Polite: Whoa boy. I loved his aggressiveness on film. He was comfortable attacking the line of scrimmage. His pursuit is natural and instinctive. You could argue he would be better off with a little more mass and power. I was happy with his mix of speed and technique.

Unfortunately the story of Polite doesn’t end with his film. His combine was stunningly awful. He went from being a late first-round pick to “get this guy out of my office.” He also had some issues at Florida, so his stock may be in free-fall. Still, the film doesn’t lie. He can play football, so it’s a just a question of which team wants to hold their nose and snag a potentially elite DE.

–

Chase Winovich: Is it a bad sign that my feeling when watching Winovich was “Wow, the coaching staff is doing a great job of putting him in position to make plays”? He flew around the field and gave his all. He was more agile at the combine than he was on film. On film he played very aggressively, which makes changing direction a bit challenging. His combine numbers were quite good. I just never went “wow” when watching him. I guess I’d be fine snagging him late in the second round.

–

Jaylon Ferguson: He absolutely pantsed Conference USA offensive linemen. I have concerns about the level of difficulty, but I could not ask for better film. His pro day results will give teams cause for concern. Did he not prepare for the 3 cone drill? Better to pass on doing the drill than to drop an 8.08. My gut instinct is to trust the film and give him a mulligan on the pro day. Ferguson can play. I’d grab him around the middle of day two.

–

Vosean Joseph: It kills me to drop a hard pass on a player with such a nice ranking, but… Joseph doesn’t have it. His field vision is incredibly poor. It’s like he has no football instincts whatsoever. The athleticism is there, but the mental game isn’t. I know scouts and coaches feel like they can fix him and turn him into a diamond in the rough. I don’t see it.

–

D’Andre Walker: I get that a fair amount of his production was scheme-dependent. Ignore that for a second. Focus on just how beautiful his movement was attacking the line of scrimmage. He reminded me of Giannis attacking the rim. Defensive ends don’t run like that. They don’t take wide steps that give them freedom to run inside or outside. They pick a move and go with it. Not Walker. He can burst early or late. I’d be happy to grab him late in the second round.

–

Joe Jackson: Solid production at Miami. Good mix of size, strength, and athleticism. Excellent at getting into opposing backfields. I haven’t seen much buzz for Jackson so I’d try to snag him early day three.

–

Oshane Ximines: Small school standout. Didn’t back it up at the combine. That actually makes some sense given his film. His technique was elite, especially against Conference USA competition. Unfortunately, the NFL is more interested in athletic monsters who they can groom over refined players who are already near their peak. Ximines will be productive for whomever gives him a chance. Solid round three pick for me.

–

Germaine Pratt: Is he an athletic linebacker? Or a bulked up safety? He’s shown some nice pass-rush skills. He’s capable of covering tight ends. He doesn’t have much starting experience (at either position), so his learning curve is going to be a bit steeper than most. Late day two-early day three pick for me.

–

Ben Banogu: Inside rush specialist? Is that a thing? His production was great at TCU, but he’s going to have to diversify his game to succeed in the NFL. He’s a day three pick for me.

Some Brief Thoughts on the Frank Clark Trade

Earlier today I tweeted out Chiefs GM Brett Veach has been getting his ass kicked this offseason:

Brett Veach has Mahomes on a rooke deal, so he has a lot of slack, but he's been getting the shit kicked out of him all offseason. That's going to do real harm to the franchise.

— Seth Burn (@SethBurn) April 23, 2019

Let me take a few moments to elaborate. The Chiefs are switching from a base 3-4 to a base 4-3 defense this season. As such, it’s natural to make a few adjustments. However, that doesn’t mean you have to jettison your incumbent pass-rushers and spend a fortune replacing them. Let’s recap in three moves. First, the Chiefs released Justin Houston:

https://www.chiefs.com/news/chiefs-release-linebacker-justin-houston

He then signed with the Colts on a two-year $24M deal with $18.5M guaranteed:

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/indianapolis-colts/justin-houston-7789/

Then the Chiefs traded Dee Ford to the 49ers for a 2020 second-round pick:

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001022298/article/chiefs-trade-passrusher-dee-ford-to-49ers

Ford signed a five-year deal with the 49ers for $85.5M with $33.3M guaranteed:

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/san-francisco-49ers/dee-ford-14432/

This left the Chiefs somewhat light on pass-rushers. Did they attack the problem in free agency by going after premium free agent Trey Flowers? Nope, he signed in Detroit:

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/detroit-lions/trey-flowers-16827/

That’s five years, $90M, $40M guaranteed.

Did this mean the Chiefs wanted to get young and cheap, drafting pass-rushers from a loaded 2019 defensive class? Nope! They traded for Frank Clark:

Chiefs and Frank Clark reached agreement on a 5 yrs, $105.5 million contract – greater total than DeMarcus Lawrence, with $63.5 million guaranteed, per source.

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) April 23, 2019

To get him they gave up a 2019 first round pick and 2020 second round pick. They also swapped third round picks.

Now, let me note that Frank Clark is better than Trey Flowers, Dee Ford, or Justin Houston. The issue is that not only do you have to compensate Clark for that increased productivity (in advance), you also have to compensate the Seahawks. Let’s ignore Justin Houston for a second, and look at the three options:

1. Trey Flowers + a first round pick + a second round pick
2. Dee Ford + a first round pick
3. Frank Clark

And again, the money would have differed as well. The internet offered some comments:

Clark is better, for sure. And he has more power. But like… not this much better

— Arif Hasan, but NFL 🏈 (@ArifHasanNFL) April 23, 2019

Chiefs: Why did you trade Dee Ford and cut Justin Houston, but trade a fortune for Frank Clark? Goodness.

Seahawks: Nice haul for Clark (seriously), but where is the D talent after Wagner/Wright/McDougald? Yikes. Better hit on some youngsters.

— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) April 23, 2019

You’ll be hearing from my lawyer (@FtblSickness)https://t.co/kQf6ju5oI6

— Justis Mosqueda (@JuMosq) April 23, 2019

Giving up a first and a second for the privilege of paying Frank Clark $105M over 5 years makes no sense to me. You want an upgrade at defensive end? Trey Flowers was available for $90M over 5 years and no draft pick compensation. https://t.co/zYpVFnXvqJ

— Michael David Smith (@MichaelDavSmith) April 23, 2019

Pricing assets is quite tricky. How much would a team pay to have the 29th overall pick in the draft? How much would Clark and Dee Ford have signed for as free agents?

The argument Veach might make is that he’s trying to win now given the window with Mahomes under his rookie deal. That’s a good argument for breaking the bank in free agency. That’s not a good argument for lighting value on fire. In short:

https://twitter.com/sImPLyDiGGsAGAi/status/1120787210960195584

Veach is going to absolutely destroy the Chiefs. All we have to do is sit back and watch.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2019 NFL Draft: The Defensive Tackles

Rank	Name	SCHOOL	Position	Grade
1	Quinnen Williams*	Alabama	DT	96.43
2	Ed Oliver*	Houston	DT	89.10
3	Jeffery Simmons*	Mississippi State	DT	85.39
4	Christian Wilkins	Clemson	DT	85.11
5	Dexter Lawrence*	Clemson	NT	80.38
6	Jerry Tillery	Notre Dame	DT	77.81
7	Dre’Mont Jones*	Ohio State	DT	73.44
8	Zach Allen	Boston College	DT/DE	71.48
9	Gerald Willis III	Miami	DT	68.74
10	Charles Omenihu	Texas	DT/DE	64.52
11	L.J. Collier	TCU	DT/DE	63.38
12	Isaiah Buggs	Alabama	DT	59.60
13	Dontavius Russell	Auburn	DT	58.52
14	Terry Beckner Jr.	Missouri	DT	56.75
15	Khalen Saunders	Western Illinois	DT	55.85
16	Renell Wren	Arizona State	DT	55.21
17	Kingsley Keke	Texas A&M	DT/DE	53.38
18	Demarcus Christmas	Florida State	DT	51.97
19	Jonathan Ledbetter	Georgia	DE/DT	51.58
20	Trysten Hill*	UCF	DT	50.83
21	Byron Cowart*	Maryland	DT	50.37
22	Daylon Mack	Texas A&M	DT	48.15
23	Greg Gaines	Washington	DT	47.58

It’s getting quite difficult to categorize defenders in the modern NFL. Hybrids are great for the environment, but a pain for me to organize. Some of these players will play as 4-3 ends. I wouldn’t categorize any of them as edge-rushers, which will get their own grouping.

As you’ve heard this is a deep defensive draft, particularly on the defensive line. This draft has at least four potentially elite tackles. However, there is a question of positional value. As running the ball isn’t particularly important in the NFL, stopping the run isn’t the key to winning either. Defensive tackles aren’t generally a main weapon in the pass rush. Thus, positional value dictates edge rushers are more important than interior linemen. How much more valuable is a vexing question.

Last year my #1 overall player was a running back. I was on record saying I would not recommend taking him early. The Giants didn’t listen. This year my #1 overall player is a defensive tackle. I think I’d be fine taking him third overall, but I could see it being correct to take him fourth after both Bosa and Allen are gone. Also, I could see Haskins justifiably going ahead of him, but that’s not what I expect to happen.

–

Quinnen Williams: Dominates with quickness, vision, and technique. Superb attacking the line of scrimmage. He doesn’t have the size or power to hold the point against double-teams. The biggest concern with Williams is that he’s not an awesome athlete. He’s got a veterans sense of tactics, but what happens when he’s up against actual experienced veteran offensive linemen? There’s a reason the NFL has been drifting towards favoring “freaks” who force bad matchups against whomever they’re up against. Williams is a great football player, but not a physically dominant one. As such, I expect him to fall a bit in the draft while teams pick up players at the premium positions.

–

Ed Oliver: Incredible athlete. Don’t worry about him playing at Houston. Alabama wanted him. He dominated in college against weaker competition. I would have expected him to do better against double teams but he didn’t have the power to fight them, or the technique to regularly split them.

He has elite quickness for a defensive tackle, but I don’t think he has the size and strength to dominate inside in the NFL. If he does move, I’m not sure if he’d be better off moving outside to defensive end, or off the line to inside linebacker. I like Oliver a lot, but it’s tough to go to the mattresses for a guy when you don’t know what position he’ll play.

–

Jeffery Simmons: Simmons trades strengths and weaknesses with Williams. Simmons has the prototypical size and strength. He splits double-teams at an excellent rate. He can collapse the pocket with raw power. However, he isn’t nearly as good at diagnosing the play or attacking the right point along the line. He can tricked into moving out of position far too easily. His raw power and athleticism is elite, so he has a higher ceiling than Williams.

He has one red flag from a 2016 incident where he hit a woman who was in a fight with his sister. The video went viral and it’s pretty bad. From what I’ve heard he hasn’t had any other issues. He’s an elite talent and will go off the board in the first round.

–

Christian Wilkins:

Weakness: Poor vs. double teams. Lacks base power to hold the point of attack against the run. Shorter arms make him vulnerable to long-armed offensive linemen. Wore down quite a bit late in games.

Strengths: Can play tackle or end. Quite good in zone-blitz coverage. Excellent at knocking down passes at the line-of-scrimmage. Great reaction off the snap.

He earned a degree in under three years. He’ll work on his power and endurance. I respect both his mental and physical game and see him as a solid first-round pick.

–

Dexter Lawrence: Our first true nose tackle. He has more raw power than refined technique. Lacks a refined pass rush repertoire. Can dominate single blocking. He had a great freshman season, but never recaptured that level of play. There’s some question as to why he wasn’t more productive when healthy.

He’s an interesting fit in a 4-3 defense, but my expectation is that he’ll be snagged early by a 3-4 team that needs an upgrade at nose. He’s the best NT in this class by a mile.

–

Jerry Tillery: Looks the part. Desired size and musculature. Attacks well when close to the ball. Slow reaction time off the snap. Surprisingly poor technique. Normally this is the point where I would talk about how much upside Tillery has, with better coaching improving his game. I don’t think that’s the issue here. I don’t think Tillery has great football instincts and that’s not something easily fixed. He might get stronger, but I don’t see him getting much smarter (in terms of reading and reacting to plays). I’d pass on Tillery.

–

Dre’mont Jones: I’ve never said this before, but I think Jones was more interested in beating his man than stopping the play. I guess that’s not a fair criticism as Jones was very good at diagnosing what he needed to do. Still, his first instincts on the snap were to beat his man, and then track the ball. He’s going to need to bulk up a bit as he is a tad undersized. I’d be happy to grab him in the second round.

–

Zach Allen: On the plus side he gives you everything he has. The effort is notable, but unfortunately so is the lack of elite athleticism. He doesn’t have the quickness and power you’d want, nor the range and speed. He has great vision and reaction time, which helped mitigate his athletic limitations. His combine was quite a bit better than I was expecting, so now I’m wondering what was going on with his film. Just going by his stats and his combine, he’s a second-rounder. However, on film I judged him as a third-round pick, at the earliest. I’m going to trust the film here.

–

Gerald Willis III: If you listen to scouts, pretty much every defensive lineman can improve their pad level (they all play too high). Willis actually does and it shows. He’ll get taken out of play-after-play, and then suddenly split a gap for a huge loss. He’s going to need to retool his game or else he won’t succeed at the next level. He’s an early day three pick for me.

–

Charles Omenihu: When I watched his film I figured Omenihu was a natural talent unfamiliar with the sport. Then I check his history and discovered he excelled in high school. His game is absurdly raw. Physically he looks like Adonis, but his play-speed in awful. His power is quite good. Oddly, so is his jump off the snap. It’s just everything else that seems to slow him down. Teaching someone to read and react with better processing speed is very difficult, so I wouldn’t touch Omenihu until day three.

–

L.J. Collier: Collier is opposite of Omenihu. Slow off the snap. Unimpressive physique. Only started one year at TCU. But man, his film is great. Great use of hands and balance. Can hold his ground or bull rush as needed. Even has a few nice pass-rush moves. I trust his football instincts. I’d be happy to grab him as early as the second-round.

2019 NFL Draft: Offensive Linemen

1	Jonah Williams*	Alabama	T	85.35
2	Jawaan Taylor*	Florida	T	82.21
3	Cody Ford*	Oklahoma	T	80.82
4	Garrett Bradbury	NC State	C	79.93
5	Chris Lindstrom	Boston College	G	79.92
6	Dalton Risner	Kansas State	T	77.89
7	Andre Dillard	Washington State	T	77.72
8	Erik McCoy*	Texas A&M	C	77.67
9	Michael Deiter	Wisconsin	G	71.94
10	Elgton Jenkins	Mississippi State	C	70.83
11	Yodny Cajuste	West Virginia	T	68.82
12	Greg Little*	Ole Miss	T	68.38
13	Kaleb McGary	Washington	T	68.20
14	David Edwards*	Wisconsin	T	66.73
15	Bobby Evans*	Oklahoma	T	66.43
16	Nate Davis	Charlotte	G	65.40
17	Dru Samia	Oklahoma	G	64.62
18	Connor McGovern*	Penn State	G	64.20
19	Tytus Howard	Alabama State	T	63.70
20	Michael Jordan*	Ohio State	G	62.87
21	Max Scharping	Northern Illinois	T	62.09
22	Beau Benzschawel	Wisconsin	G	61.45
23	Ben Powers	Oklahoma	G	60.27
24	Ross Pierschbacher	Alabama	C	58.50
25	Mitch Hyatt	Clemson	T	54.09
26	Lamont Gaillard	Georgia	C	52.50
27	Dennis Daley	South Carolina	T	51.97
28	Chuma Edoga	USC	T/G	51.80
29	Isaiah Prince	Ohio State	T	50.04
30	Javon Patterson	Ole Miss	C/G	47.66
31	Olisaemeka Udoh	Elon	T/G	47.61
32	Nate Herbig*	Stanford	G	46.96

I have no idea why I gave tight ends their own grouping, while putting all offensive linemen together. I guess it comes down to uncertainty of position with a lot of these guys.

The NFL is always looking for left tackles. The top offensive lineman in the draft (Jonah Williams) might be a guard in the NFL. The second best offensive lineman in the draft (Jawaan Taylor) may end up a better fit at right tackle. Andre Dillard is the player I’m most confident can play left tackle at an NFL level.

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Jonah Williams: I have him listed as a tackle, but there are whispers he’s going to be a guard in the NFL. If you are spending a premium pick on an offensive lineman, you are looking either for a left tackle or a truly dominant guard. I’m not sure Williams is either. He’s an excellent tactician who lacks ideal length. There are concerns about how well he can handle speed rushers. If he moves inside, that problem is alleviated, but then we have concerns about his base strength. Williams plays quite well, but I’m concerned he doesn’t have a natural position in the NFL. As such, I’d be very concerned about taking him in the top 15. He might end up being kicked over to center, where his weaknesses would be mitigated.

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Jawaan Taylor: Taylor has two major issues he needs to deal with to succeed at the NFL level. First, he needs to cut down on false starts. Second, he needs to stop biasing towards the outside and giving up occasional inside lanes to the pass rush. In both cases, the issue is his concern about his speed off the snap and ability to handle the outside rush. Professional coaching should help mitigate that issue.

False starts aside, Taylor was one of the most dominant offensive lineman in college football last season. He had some great games against elite competition. His run blocking technique needs some work, but that’s a minor quibble. Taylor has the most upside of any potential left tackle in this class. However, he might end up at right tackle (where his skills are a better fit). I live his power and potential, but I must admit there is some real risk here too.

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Cody Ford: Another player where I am not certain of his position. In Ford’s case it’s a matter of skills. He has the length and power to play right tackle, but I’m not sure he has the technique to avoid getting exposed. At guard, he’s a natural mauler. This might be a case where he plays guard for a year or two, then gets moved over to right tackle, and perhaps eventually to left tackle. Ford has more upside than Williams, so he might not last on the board much longer after Williams is gone.

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Garrett Bradbury: A former tight end. Bradbury is a very athletic center who should be ready to start from day one. Does a great job beating defensive linemen to the punch. A bit better in pass protection than run blocking, although I’ll give him credit for doing exceptional work at the second level. Has the speed to pull if asked. Unlike the players listed above him, there’s no chance you are getting a future left tackle here. A team looking for a center should grab him late in the first round.

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Chris Lindstrom: He’s a natural fit at guard. Lindstrom has the skills to work outside, or play center, so versatility is a plus here. Like Bradbury he’s quick and athletic. Lindstrom’s weakness is a mix of power and leverage. Too often I saw defenders get their hands on him and move him back or aside. Despite their grades being almost identical, I put Bradbury clearly above Lindstrom. Also, while I like Lindstrom’s versatility, he’s definitely an interior lineman at the NFL level.

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Dalton Risner: Strong, but slow. I trust him to hold his block once he gets his hands on you. He projects as a right tackle in the NFL. At worst, he has the skills to play guard. There’s an outside shot that he continues to develop and could handle left tackle in a few years. I might snag him at the tail end of round one if there’s been a rush on offensive linemen.

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Andre Dillard: If Jawaan Taylor has the highest ceiling at left tackle, Dillard has the highest floor. I am confident Dillard will be able to play left tackle in the NFL for years to come. He’s quick, with solid technique. His run blocking will never be elite, but that’s fine. I know I’ve graded Dillard as the seventh best offensive lineman in the draft, but that’s before taking positional value into account. Left tackles are harder to find than guards. I know I would take Williams and Taylor ahead of Dillard, but that’s it. An easy first-rounder for me.

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Erik McCoy: The last of the elite offensive lineman. McCoy doesn’t have the athleticism that blows you away on film. What he does have is excellent power and technique to hold his ground against all competition. He can play guard, but is best served at center where he can be the foundation of the interior line. A strong second-round value.

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Michael Deiter: It pains me to slag a Badger, but… Deiter got his butt whupped vs. the best competition he faced. He’s not that athletic. He’s more fat than strong, and that’s not going to play at the NFL level. In theory, he’s a natural interior lineman. His work ethic and technique are solid. In practice, I see neither the athleticism or the raw power required. Pass.

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Elgton Jenkins: Hasn’t shown the mobility you’d want on the outside. Quality strength and quickness to play center. Did well against elite competition, after the ball was snapped. Had a propensity to pick up false start penalties in the biggest games. I’m not really sure what to make of that. I have a lot of faith that Jenkins has a high floor and should be able to provide value on the interior for many years.

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Yodny Cajuste: I’m torn. On one hand I don’t see premium NFL left tackle talent. However, he was lightly recruited, and managed to start at left tackle for West Virginia. He’s managed to continue to develop and improve every year. The ability to start at left tackle for multiple years in a pass-first program is a good sign and one that I have to respect. He’d be a top priority for me late day two.

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Greg Little: Polarizing prospect. Sometimes he looks like a first-round talent. Other times he looks like a bust waiting to happen. He doesn’t have the power you would like. What he does have is experience and solid zone-blocking technique. With NFL defenses trending faster, Little may find himself a good fit in a zone-blocking scheme at left tackle. As such, he’s probably a second-round value to the right team.

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Kaleb McGary: Two major issues. The first is that I’m not sure if he’s a right tackle or a guard. The second is that he’s a medical red flag. If the medical staff clears him, then the question is does he have the athleticism to play outside in the NFL. My read is that it’s a bad fit for him, which moves him inside. I’ve seen him in the second round of multiple mocks, which seems nuts to me. I’d grab him in the third round or let some other team try to make him work.

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David Edwards: Unusual prospect. Former quarterback/tight end. Played right tackle for the Badgers, but doesn’t project to have the power to do so at the next level. I wonder if he should try to bulk up and move inside, or try to make a living as a TE/6OL hybrid. I wouldn’t draft Edwards unless I had a plan for him.

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Bobby Evans: I expect he’ll be available early day three, where he should be a potential steal. He’s played both tackle positions for the Sooners. He’s going to need to improve his technique to play left tackle at the NFL level. He’s quick off the snap, with premium power. Honestly, I’d be happy taking him in the third round and would only wait longer to try and get more value. I expect him to be an NFL right tackle, and might be able to move to the left in a few years.

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Nate Davis: Doesn’t have the size or power the NFL is looking for at guard. What he has is great quickness and technique. Unfortunately, his arms aren’t long enough to allow him to sustain blocks. He’s had a few off-field issues. I don’t think I’d take him until day three unless I felt he was a great fit for my blocking scheme.

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Dru Samia: He’s won multiple awards for his play, but I’m not sure the film backs that up. He was able to dominate weaker competition, but struggled against stronger foes. As with Davis, power and arm-length are issues. I will commend his footwork and technique. If he can develop the strength to hold his own, the other skills are there. Another day three flyer for me.

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Conner McGovern: Now this is what I am looking for in a day two guard. McGovern has the size and power that he’ll need. His pass blocking technique needs work, but that’s what training camp and ass-whuppings from veterans are for. He has the power to do the job and that’s the first job prerequisite I look for.

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Tytus Howard: Howard went to Alabama State, which makes him tough to project. It’s not that most of his competition was lower-level. He looked great vs. Auburn. The issue is that he doesn’t have the raw strength we’d expect from a day two pick. Additionally, his technique is a bit raw as well. He’ll gain a lot from NFL weight training and coaching. How much is anyone’s guess. He might be a diamond waiting to be polished and an early second-round value. Alternately, he might not be able to correct some of the flaws in his game. I’d feel a lot more comfortable rolling the dice in the third round, which is to say he probably wouldn’t end up on my roster.

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Michael Jordan: Weird tape. Last year he looked like a second-round guard. This year he looked like a fourth-round center. Is he just a better natural fit at guard? Or are there a few flaws in his game that proper coaching would correct? I’m happy enough to move him back to guard. If he can play center too, great! If not, I think he can do a fine job for me elsewhere in the interior. Solid day two pick.

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Max Scharping: His pass protection skills would get shredded at the next level if asked to play left tackle. Much better suited to move back to right tackle. Excellent size and power. Made 52 straight starts for Northern Illinois. I have complete confidence Scharping is going to succeed in the NFL. Maybe he’ll be able to fix the flaws in his technique and move to the left. Even if he can, he’s a fine day two right tackle.

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Beau Benzschawel: Am I just biased against Badgers? That’s awful as I used to live in Madison. I didn’t like Beau’s film. I saw him repeatedly overpowered, which is not what I am looking for in my interior offensive linemen. He’s received numerous accolades, so clearly I’m missing something. No matter, he’s a day three pick for me.

2019 NFL Draft: The Tight Ends

1	T.J. Hockenson*	Iowa	TE	86.22
2	Noah Fant*	Iowa	TE	82.64
3	Irv Smith Jr.*	Alabama	TE	78.81
4	Jace Sternberger*	Texas A&M	TE	64.16
5	Josh Oliver	San Jose State	TE	60.57
6	Kaden Smith*	Stanford	TE	60.35
7	Caleb Wilson*	UCLA	TE	57.61
8	Isaac Nauta*	Georgia	TE	57.43
9	Drew Sample	Washington	TE	56.27
10	Dawson Knox*	Ole Miss	TE	54.79
11	Tommy Sweeney	Boston College	TE	54.77
12	Alize Mack	Notre Dame	TE	53.71
13	Kahale Warring*	San Diego State	TE	50.1
14	Foster Moreau	LSU	TE	48.11
15	Dax Raymond*	Utah State	TE	47.9

Thank goodness for Iowa. They’re providing two first-round picks in an otherwise weak tight end class.

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T.J. Hockenson: Polished AF. He blocks well, breaks off the line swiftly, beats defenders with great cuts, and catches the ball cleanly. He’s the prototypical NFL-ready tight end. Any criticisms I’d provide would be nitpicking.

Tight ends have a difficult learning curve to adjust to the NFL. Hockenson is the closest thing we have to a plug-&-play tight end in this draft.

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Noah Fant: Iowa’s other elite tight end. He’s more athletic than Hockenson. His speed makes him more of a midrange-to-deep threat. He isn’t as physical or as polished as Hockenson, but I suspect some teams have Fant above Hockenson on their draft boards due to his potentially higher ceiling.

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Irv Smith Jr.: He’s quite talented, but a bit raw. He’s still learning proper blocking and route-running technique. He offers some versatility as he can play H-back or fullback. I see Smith as a clear step down from Fant. I wouldn’t gamble on him until the second round.

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Jace Sternberger: Jace worked his way up the food chain, from Northeastern Oklahoma A&M to Texas A&M. His work ethic is commendable. He runs routes well and attacks the ball in the air. He blocks as hard as he can, but lacks the strength to be great at it. He lacks the athleticism to excel at the NFL level. If you need a guy who can play tight end above replacement-level for years to come, Jace is your man. He’d be a late day two pick for me.

2019 NFL Draft: The Wide Receivers

1	D.K. Metcalf*	Ole Miss	WR	84.51
2	Marquise Brown*	Oklahoma	WR	81.03
3	N’Keal Harry*	Arizona State	WR	80.49
4	A.J. Brown*	Ole Miss	WR	78.70
5	Deebo Samuel	South Carolina	WR	74.97
6	Parris Campbell	Ohio State	WR	74.90
7	Kelvin Harmon*	NC State	WR	73.24
8	JJ Arcega-Whiteside	Stanford	WR	71.56
9	Hakeem Butler*	Iowa State	WR	69.58
10	Riley Ridley*	Georgia	WR	68.59
11	Andy Isabella	UMass	WR	64.78
12	Emanuel Hall	Missouri	WR	63.91
13	Terry McLaurin	Ohio State	WR	58.83
14	Mecole Hardman*	Georgia	WR	57.83
15	David Sills V	West Virginia	WR	57.16
16	Lil’Jordan Humphrey*	Texas	WR	56.61
17	Miles Boykin	Notre Dame	WR	55.70
18	Antoine Wesley*	Texas Tech	WR	54.39
19	Anthony Johnson	Buffalo	WR	53.68
20	Hunter Renfrow	Clemson	WR	52.10
21	Jalen Hurd	Baylor	WR	51.64
22	Gary Jennings Jr.	West Virginia	WR	50.55
23	Keesean Johnson	Fresno State	WR	49.88
24	Greg Dortch*	Wake Forest	WR	49.71
25	Darius Slayton*	Auburn	WR	49.47
26	Jakobi Meyers*	NC State	WR	49.45
27	Terry Godwin	Georgia	WR	49.02
28	Preston Williams*	Colorado State	WR	48.70
29	Penny Hart*	Georgia State	WR	48.63

I find that this is the positional group that gives me the most trouble. Projecting how a wide receiver will develop at the next level is tricky. I need to estimate how much of his college production (or lack thereof) was due to quarterback play. additionally, I need to adjust for the defenses faced. It’s a challenge, and frankly I’ve outsourced most of these questions to algorithms.

There’s also the slot penalty. There are a lot of receivers who have proven they can be effective in the slot. However, you can’t build your entire passing game out of the slot, so you need receivers who can succeed outside as well.

Finally, how much of a wide receiver’s production was based off of the scheme he played in? Three of my top four played in the Air Raid system. Are they system creations?

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

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D.K. Metcalf: His catch rate was poor. He’s had multiple season-ending injuries. He was lousy in the red zone, and awful when his quarterback was under pressure. So why is Metcalf my #1WR? The numbers:

6-3, 228, 4.33, 18.3. That’s his height, weight, 40-time, and yards-per-catch. When healthy Metcalf is a monster capable of dominating defenses. He’s raw, so for now his skill-set is that of a pure deep threat. If he learns to run a full route tree, he’ll be the toughest WR in this class to guard.

My nagging concern is his hands. He’s made some incredible one-handed catches. He’s had more than his fair share of drops. I think he can learn to cut those out of his game with better technique. His ceiling is the highest of any wide receiver in this class. I’d make him the first wide receiver off the board.

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Marquise “Hollywood” Brown: Absolutely dominant at Oklahoma. We don’t have a 40-time for Brown as he was injured during the combine and his pro day. Judging from the film, he has elite speed.

Brown has a few red flags:

1. His size: 5-9, 166. He played even lighter at Oklahoma. How much of his explosiveness will he lose if he has to play at a higher weight to survive NFL hits? Also, will he survive NFL hits? I wouldn’t, and he played college ball even lighter than I am.

2. How much do we need to discount his stats due to quarterback play? If Murray goes first overall, Brown will have been targeted by a pair of #1 overall picks. That’s playing on easy-mode.

I’ve mellowed on my concerns about Big 12 defenses, but that’s an additional factor to consider.

Brown has shown elite speed, agility, and hands. His production has been impeccable. I favor Metcalf due to his size, but I’d understand going with Brown and his elite production over Metcalf’s potential.

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N’Keal Harry: Where Metcalf and Brown won with speed, Harry wins with power and technique. His catch rate was excellent. The issue with Harry is separation. He struggled with it in college. Harry was able to manhandle smaller corners. All this means he’ll present his quarterback with a smaller target than I might like.

He’s proven effective both inside and outside, as both a receiver and a blocker. His physicality is unquestioned. How high do you want to take a WR with 4.53 speed? This would be less of an issue if he played faster on film.

A few years ago Harry would have been my #1WR. I have since made some modifications to value explosiveness over power. Blame Laquon Treadwell. Metcalf and Brown have higher ceilings. If they’re off the board early, I’d take Harry late in the first round.

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A.J. Brown: D.K. Metcalf may have been Mississippi’s most talented receiver, but Brown was their most productive. He has elite route-running skills. Great agility allows him to beat cornerbacks to the spot. He has the power to work through contact. He might have the best hands in the class. Brown has a shot to go down as the most productive receiver in the draft.

There are two concerns. The first is that he clearly tailed off vs. elite coverage. In blunt terms, his shit didn’t work vs. the best. The second is that his top-end speed (4.49) isn’t going to separate from NFL cornerbacks.

I can’t discount how productive he was in college. His agility and hands will make him nothing less than an effective slot receiver, which gives him the highest floor in the class. I’d be fine with taking him late in the first round if lottery tickets Metcalf and Marquise Brown were off the board.

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Deebo Samuel: I can’t fault him for skipping his bowl game to prepare for the NFL draft. He’s been dogged by hamstring issues throughout his college career. My problem with Samuel is his lack of explosiveness on film. I don’t see elite agility or separation.

I like the fact that he’s tough to tackle. His field vision is fantastic. He’s a great kick returner. He runs routes quite well, particularly when he’s asked to break back towards the line of scrimmage. Alas, his lack of premium athleticism limits him to a second-round grade.

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Parris Campbell: Lord help me, I have no idea what to do with Parris Campbell. He ran a 4.31-40, caught 74.5% of the passes sent his way, yet only averaged 9.2 yards-per-target. How is that combination of things possible?

The answer is that he was used as a short-range target, and given the opportunity to try and break big plays. Like other receivers on this list, he still has to learn how to run a full route tree. My question is this: Why didn’t Ohio State use him more as a deep threat? If they didn’t trust him to work the routes D.K. Metcalf ran, why should I?

Tavon Austin was a disaster. Campbell is a lower-risk prospect with a second-round grade.

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Kelvin Harmon: Dude ran a 4.60 -40. He ain’t running away from NFL coverage. The good news is he won’t have to. He’s a zone-destroyer and a master of winning 50-50 balls. I adore his physicality. Maybe this is a case of me not adjusting to the modern NFL rewarding speed over power. I doubt he’ll be one of the first ten wide receivers off the board. No matter. He’s my #7WR and I love him as a late day two pick. If he’s available day three, he’s a steal.

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JJ Arcega-Whiteside: As with Harmon, we have another slow (4.62-40) wide receiver who wins with power and technique. JJ is notably poor off the line. He makes up for it by winning the battle while the ball is in the air. It’s clear his basketball skills are helpful here as the film showed him boxing out safeties and cornerbacks. It was kind of weird to watch. JJ is a bit of a mismatch in terms of size and power against most cornerbacks, so he should come off the board sometime late day two.

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Hakeem Butler: “CATCH THE FUCKING BALL!” -Unnamed Iowa State coach exclaiming after Butler’s second drop of the drive

I sympathize with the coach. Butler has long arms and huge hands. His catch radius suggests he should be able to bring in pretty much anything. He just… doesn’t.

I can forgive the remedial route-running skills. He’s an absolute bitch to tackle once he does catch the ball. He has numerous highlight plays where he broke tackles for long touchdowns. If he can learn to catch the ball, he’s a first-round talent. I just don’t know if that’s going to happen.

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Riley Ridley: He lacks his brother’s athleticism. He doesn’t have the speed or agility to blow past NFL cornerbacks. But… he has something. He runs the route he should. He breaks it off in to target the hole in the zone. He beats cornerbacks to the ball. He has… it. Some guy have tons of talent and don’t know what to do with it. Ridley has limited talent, but produced against the toughest competition. He’s the one wide receiver I’d draft above my rating. I’d take a second-round flyer on Ridley and trust he’d be no worse than a #3WR in the NFL.

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Andy Isabella: http://www.espn.com/college-football/matchup?gameId=401012341

15 receptions. 219 yards. 2 Touchdowns. For Umass. Against Georgia. Unlike the monsters above him, he won’t be winning 50-50 balls in the NFL. He’s 5-9, 188, with small hands. The thing is, with his speed, he won’t have to. His job is to leave cornerbacks in the dust, or sit down in the cushion they give him and move the chains. I’d grab him late day two.

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Emanuel Hall: He’s like D.K. Metcalf, but more so. He’s a track star who hasn’t been able to stay healthy playing football. He’s even more limited in his route tree. Hall is a pure burner with almost nothing else to offer right now. The difference for me is Metcalf has power. I see a potentially elite NFL wide receiver when I watch him. I see a highly limited one-trick pony when I watch Hall. I’ll pass.

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I’ve been asked about Gary Jennings and Hunter Renfrow.

In the case of Jennings he seemed perfectly suited to his system. I don’t expect him to be able to get the same opportunities in the NFL. I could see a team looking for a slot receiver grabbing him in the third round.

As for Renfrow, his hands are fantastic, but will he be able to get open in the NFL? His measurables point to a day three pick. His college production says he’s a day one redzone threat. Apparently a lot of teams are hoping Renfrow falls to them, so perhaps he too will be a late day two flyer.

Frankly, wide receiver is the position where I’m least confident my grades are accurate. If I were a GM, I might take a shotgun approach and take multiple receivers day three and see which ones stuck.