This is a true and deep love. Perhaps even an everlasting love.
Let’s compare ESPN’s FPI projections to current market estimates:
Let’s start at the top: ESPN says Alabama is more likely to miss the playoff than make it. That’s seems bonkers. They are quite optimistic about Clemson’s chances. They are also quite high on Georgia, Oklahoma, and Washington. We’ll see how that goes for them. However, nothing compares to their confidence in Notre Dame.
The market price on Notre Dame allows some room for discussion, but 42% to make the playoff? 10% to win the National Title? You can shop around and find prices on Notre Dame at better than 50-1 to be crowned champions. This is a bold opinion.
Please note, if we count Oregon and Florida State at 1%, ESPN has a 5% chance someone not listed makes the playoff. Market estimates have a 4.1% chance that someone not listed will make the playoff. Of course, that’s with seven addition teams listed. Let’s give ESPN at $10K bankroll and limitless credit and see what they recommend:
Please note, for wagering purposes I’ve capped the chances of a team missing the playoff at 99%. If I had an additional significant digit from ESPN, so of these wagers might be quite a bit larger.
Here are there projections with what they’ve written about them:
And a video: