First, let me give you the topline:

Net Result -305280
Bankroll % -152.64%

Yes, it really has been that bad. Pro Football Focus has been lighting money on fire over the last two weeks. You wouldn’t know that by their self-proclaimed win rates (53.8% against the spread, 63.6% against O/U’s, 70.0% on moneylines). Thing is, I’ve been recording everything. I can check this stuff. It ain’t pretty. And then there is the embarrassing MyBookie affiliation. At this point I’m beginning to suspect that PFF is in well over their heads in a world they don’t understand.

Also, I’m going to talk more about what defines a “pick” on Sunday. Until then, the full results:

Team Line Risked To Win Result
Patriots 0 37945 15178 15178
Patriots -6.5 19880 19880 19880
Steelers -3.5 21807 22898 -21807
Steelers 0 17387 10109 0
Jaguars -3 22367 23038 23038
Jaguars 0 23282 15838 15838
Seahawks 0 13448 20845 -13448
Seahawks 3 18187 19642 0
Lions -7 4080 4080 -4080
Lions 0 7640 2547 -7640
Cin-Ind U47.5 18119 17764 -18119
TB-NO U50 20158 18840 -20158
Falcons -5.5 3114 2883 2883
Falcons 0 7749 3312 3312
Car-ATL U43.5 12850 12356 -12850
SD-Buf U41.5 21878 19889 -21878
Bills 7.5 29387 26006 -29387
Saints 0 36459 8558 8558
Saints -9.5 10659 9961 -10659
Cle-NO U50.5 39600 39600 39600
Titans 3.5 2254 1995 1995
Titans 0 2932 4779 4779
KC-Pit o53 24062 21875 21875
Steelers 0 5262 2555 -5262
Steelers -4.5 1631 1568 -1631
Redskins 0 19837 8405 -19837
Eagles 0 17614 11902 -17614
Eagles -3 16420 16420 -16420
Lions 6 7087 6880 6880
Lions 0 3989 9014 -3989
Det-SF O48.5 13520 12291 12291
Patriots 0 10630 8370 -10630
Patriots -2 11997 11318 -11997
Broncos 0 5361 2119 2119
Broncos -6.5 3151 3246 -3151
Cowboys 0 10919 7136 7136
Cowboys -3 8941 8356 8356
Seahawks 0 8264 15867 -8264
Seahawks 4.5 12570 12204 -12570
Jets 3 14346 14776 -14346
Jets 0 11549 17670 -11549
NYJ-Cle o41 29358 28503 -29358
Falcons 0 9844 8203 -9844
Falcons -1.5 10866 10349 -10866
NO-Atl U53.5 40285 39887 -40285
Panthers -2.5 13549 11781 11781
Panthers 0 7992 5628 5628
Giants 6 2216 2110 2110
Dolphins 0 5181 3754 3754
Dolphins -3 1923 2000 2000
Chiefs 0 34379 14567 14567
Chiefs -5.5 19553 17939 17939
SF-KC o53 13133 12160 12160
Jaguars 0 25650 5700 -25650
Eagles 0 31393 11937 11937
Eagles -6 17743 16130 -17743
Bills 16.5 4658 4235 4235
Buf-Min o41 26836 25317 -26836
Redskins 2.5 10637 9849 9849
Rams 0 7873 2540 2540
Rams -7 6965 6762 6762
SD-LAR u49 41536 38107 -41536
Bears 0 17858 8044 8044
Bears -5.5 9787 9502 -9787
Dal-Sea o40 31104 30198 -31104
Patriots 0 42524 15297 -42524
Buccaneers 0 14787 12426 -14787
Buccaneers -1.5 14695 13864 -14695

 

 

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After last night’s Patriots loss, PFF is now down $275,798, or 137.9% of their initial bankroll.

Please note, I am keeping all bets sized with a constant $200,000 bankroll. If we were adjusting for bankroll changes, they’d be down $160,909, with $39,091 remaining. That would put them down 80.45%.

Tonight they are backing the Buccaneers. Note: These are as of 5:30 PM. I’m not going to be able to check one hour before gametime as I’ll be out and about. Cheers!

Buccaneers 0 14787 12426 0
Buccaneers -1.5 14695 13864 0

 

 

 

 

PFF has now gone negative beyond their initial $200,000 bankroll as they’re down $233,273 (-116.64%). This week has just been brutal for them:

Jets 3 14346 14776 -14346
Jets 0 11549 17670 -11549
NYJ-Cle o41 29358 28503 -29358
Falcons 0 9844 8203 -9844
Falcons -1.5 10866 10349 -10866
NO-Atl U53.5 40285 39887 -40285
Panthers -2.5 13549 11781 11781
Panthers 0 7992 5628 5628
Giants 6 2216 2110 2110
Dolphins 0 5181 3754 3754
Dolphins -3 1923 2000 2000
Chiefs 0 34379 14567 14567
Chiefs -5.5 19553 17939 17939
SF-KC o53 13133 12160 12160
Jaguars 0 25650 5700 -25650
Eagles 0 31393 11937 11937
Eagles -6 17743 16130 -17743
Bills 16.5 4658 4235 4235
Buf-Min o41 26836 25317 -26836
Redskins 2.5 10637 9849 9849
Rams 0 7873 2540 2540
Rams -7 6965 6762 6762
SD-LAR u49 41536 38107 -41536
Bears 0 17858 8044 8044
Bears -5.5 9787 9502 -9787
Dal-Sea o40 31104 30198 -31104

That’s -$155,599 this week alone. Perhaps the Patriots will cut into the tab:

Patriots 0 42524 15297 0

 

 

 

It looked like it was going to be a good morning for PFF, but things broke against them late. PFF is down -$168,192 (84.1% of their bankroll.)

Perhaps things will be better this afternoon:

Rams 0 7873 2540 0
Rams -7 6965 6762 0
SD-LAR u49 41536 38107 0
Bears 0 17858 8044 0
Bears -5.5 9787 9502 0
Dal-Sea o40 31104 30198 0

Shooters have to shoot. Touts have to tout:

So let’s look at PFF’s thoughts on week three:

That’s a darn good question. PFF gave us an update:

Now, this leads to some questions. For one, what exactly determines whether something is a pick?

In short, it’s impossible to know when something is or not a pick by their standards:

Heading into today, I’d recorded eight O/U bets. They went 3-5 in them:

Team Line Risked To Win Result
Patriots 0 37945 15178 15178
Patriots -6.5 19880 19880 19880
Steelers -3.5 21807 22898 -21807
Steelers 0 17387 10109 0
Jaguars -3 22367 23038 23038
Jaguars 0 23282 15838 15838
Seahawks 0 13448 20845 -13448
Seahawks 3 18187 19642 0
Lions -7 4080 4080 -4080
Lions 0 7640 2547 -7640
Cin-Ind U47.5 18119 17764 -18119
TB-NO U50 20158 18840 -20158
Falcons -5.5 3114 2883 2883
Falcons 0 7749 3312 3312
Car-ATL U43.5 12850 12356 -12850
SD-Buf U41.5 21878 19889 -21878
Bills 7.5 29387 26006 -29387
Saints 0 36459 8558 8558
Saints -9.5 10659 9961 -10659
Cle-NO U50.5 39600 39600 39600
Titans 3.5 2254 1995 1995
Titans 0 2932 4779 4779
KC-Pit o53 24062 21875 21875
Steelers 0 5262 2555 -5262
Steelers -4.5 1631 1568 -1631
Redskins 0 19837 8405 -19837
Eagles 0 17614 11902 -17614
Eagles -3 16420 16420 -16420
Lions 6 7087 6880 6880
Lions 0 3989 9014 -3989
Det-SF O48.5 13520 12291 12291
Patriots 0 10630 8370 -10630
Patriots -2 11997 11318 -11997
Broncos 0 5361 2119 2119
Broncos -6.5 3151 3246 -3151
Cowboys 0 10919 7136 7136
Cowboys -3 8941 8356 8356
Seahawks 0 8264 15867 -8264
Seahawks 4.5 12570 12204 -12570
Jets 3 14346 14776 -14346
Jets 0 11549 17670 -11549
NYJ-Cle o41 29358 28503 -29358
Sum -132927
Bankroll -66.46%

It’s rather difficult to take their listed results at face value. That’s why  I Kelly-track the picks. Perhaps they’ll have a better morning. Reminder, I check their lines against market prices one hour before kickoff:

Team Line Risked To Win Result
Falcons 0 9844 8203 0
Falcons -1.5 10866 10349 0
NO-Atl U53.5 40285 39887 0
Panthers -2.5 13549 11781 0
Panthers 0 7992 5628 0
Giants 6 2216 2110 0
Dolphins 0 5181 3754 0
Dolphins -3 1923 2000 0
Chiefs 0 34379 14567 0
Chiefs -5.5 19553 17939 0
SF-KC o53 13133 12160 0
Jaguars 0 25650 5700 0
Eagles 0 31393 11937 0
Eagles -6 17743 16130 0
Bills 16.5 4658 4235 0
Buf-Min o41 26836 25317 0
Redskins 2.5 10637 9849 0

Oh, one last bit:

I’ll see y’all in 3.5 hours.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The left is from Tuesday. The right is from today.

Please excuse the pixelization. I’m not used to using screencaps.

Let me bring your attention to the internal moneyline. PFF had the Jets -105. That does not appear to jive with their internal spread or their projected score. In a world with ties, I’ll let -0.5 slide, but your spread favorite should be your moneyline favorite. I am a little curious what changed as the week progressed:

The internal moneyline has now moved from Jets -105 to Browns -115. I’m rather curious what was behind that. I’ve seen PFF move their internal opinion as the line moves. Case in point, their projected O/U moved from 41 to 44. Again, why? I have no idea.

Please note: None of this should be taken as tacit approval for affiliating with MyBookie. PFF should be ashamed of themselves for seeking affiliate money to begin with. Choosing to ally with an absolute garbage book just makes it worse.

 

Welp!

In any event, PFF is down $77,674 on the season (38.84% of their bankroll)

Jets 3 14346 14776 0
Jets 0 11549 17670 0
NYJ-Cle o41 29358 28503 0