World Cup Pythags

I must say that there isn’t a lot separating the top teams. I suspect France isn’t this good. Portugal as well. England might be quite a bit better than this would suggest, but they’re England, so they’ll find a way to flame out anyway.

Personally I’ll be rooting for Japan for make it out of the group stage. After that, we’ll see.

Brazil	0.8362
Germany	0.8286
Spain	0.8266
France	0.8194
Argentina	0.7994
Belgium	0.7757
England	0.7408
Uruguay	0.7248
Colombia	0.6763
Portugal	0.6570
Croatia	0.6565
Poland	0.5892
Russia	0.5526
Denmark	0.5490
Senegal	0.5020
Mexico	0.4867
Switzerland	0.4708
Peru	0.4623
Serbia	0.4214
Sweden	0.4120
Egypt	0.3832
Japan	0.3725
Nigeria	0.3637
Morocco	0.3316
Iceland	0.3193
Tunisia	0.3147
Australia	0.2648
Korea Republic	0.2539
Iran	0.2291
Costa Rica	0.2202
Panama	0.1700
Saudi Arabia	0.1646

In their groups

Uruguay	0.7248
Russia	0.5526
Egypt	0.3832
Saudi Arabia	0.1646
Spain	0.8266
Morocco	0.3316
Portugal	0.6570
Iran	0.2291
France	0.8194
Peru	0.4623
Australia	0.2648
Denmark	0.5490
Croatia	0.6565
Argentina	0.7994
Nigeria	0.3637
Iceland	0.3193
Switzerland	0.4708
Brazil	0.8362
Serbia	0.4214
Costa Rica	0.2202
Sweden	0.4120
Germany	0.8286
Korea Republic	0.2539
Mexico	0.4867
England	0.7408
Belgium	0.7757
Tunisia	0.3147
Panama	0.1700
Poland	0.5892
Senegal	0.5020
Colombia	0.6763
Japan	0.3725

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Cavs or Bust: 538’s tale (ESPN and NC escape)

538 got off to a rough start before the playoffs even began:

interesting idea to put these numbers on national TV pic.twitter.com/ptLWRnhiNk

— Kunk (@Kunk7) April 14, 2018

Those predictions were hilariously off-market at the time. Golden State was roughly pick’em to win the West, while the Cavs were the slight favorites in the East. The playoffs themselves haven’t gone better for 538’s model:

538	Risked	To Win	Result
Spurs	3557	23616	-3557
Raptors	3700	617	617
Sixers	2800	560	560
Pelicans	978	1760	1760
Celtics	3034	1920	1920
Pacers	1207	5456	-1207
Jazz	467	560	560
Timberwolves	187	2800	-187
Pelicans R2	3071	19840	-3071
Jazz R2	1640	16400	-1640
Celtics R2	1168	4790	4790
Raptors R2	2048	1113	-2048
Celtics R3	1521	3680	-1521
Rockets R3	6733	12120	-6733
Cavaliers R4	1300	10010	0
		Current Tab	-9757

They’re down 97.57% of their starting bankroll. They aren’t giving up hope though, attempting to win it all back through one huge upset. That takes balls (and an off-market model).

ESPN is dodging more losses, although that’s due to some luck on their part. They are underrating both Cleveland and Golden State, which is balancing out to get a roughly accurate series line:

ESPN	Risked	To Win	Result
Spurs	450	2988	-450
Raptors	900	150	150
Heat	375	1500	-375
Pass	0	0	0
Celtics	3808	2410	2410
Pacers	3527	15944	-3527
Thunder	2715	2011	-2715
Rockets	7182	264	264
Pass	0	0	0
Jazz R2	1200	12000	-1200
Celtics R2	3905	16010	16010
Raptors R2	6592	3583	-6592
Celtics R3	6010	14545	-6010
Rockets R3	4436	7984	-4436
Pass	0	0	0
		Current Tab	-6471

Being down 64.71% of their bankroll is not particularly something to celebrate. Mind you, if we were going game-by-game, they’d be on Cleveland in game one, but that’s a story for another blog.

Finally, Nylon Calculus is ending their playoff run down a measly 5.74%:

Nylon Calculus	Risked	To Win	Result
Spurs	450	2988	-450
Pass	0	0	0
Heat	125	500	-125
Pelicans	1444	2600	2600
Bucks	57	80	-57
Pacers	841	3800	-841
Pass	0	0	0
Timberwolves	293	4400	-293
Pelicans R2	1599	10329	-1599
Jazz R2	1266	12660	-1266
Celtics R2	1952	8003	8003
Raptors R2	1366	743	-1366
Celtics R3	2001	4843	-2001
Rockets R3	3179	5722	-3179
Pass	0	0	0
		Current Tab	-574

They too would be backing the Cavs game-by-game, but on the series line, they escape with no further damage.

 

2018 NBA Playoffs Tracking: Celtics & Rockets?

ESPN is investing their Celtics winnings fairly heavily as they have both the Celtics and Rockets as favorites to advance:

ESPN	Risked	To Win	Result
Spurs	450	2988	-450
Raptors	900	150	150
Heat	375	1500	-375
Pass	0	0	0
Celtics	3808	2410	2410
Pacers	3527	15944	-3527
Thunder	2715	2011	-2715
Rockets	7182	264	264
Pass	0	0	0
Jazz R2	1200	12000	-1200
Celtics R2	3905	16010	16010
Raptors R2	6592	3583	-6592
Celtics R3	6010	14545	0
Rockets R3	4436	7984	0
		Current Tab	3975

538 has the Rockets at 79% to advance to the finals. That’s a lot of confidence against the reigning NBA champions. For what it’s worth, they also have the Rockets at 69% to win the title, which is nice.

538	Risked	To Win	Result
Spurs	3557	23616	-3557
Raptors	3700	617	617
Sixers	2800	560	560
Pelicans	978	1760	1760
Celtics	3034	1920	1920
Pacers	1207	5456	-1207
Jazz	467	560	560
Timberwolves	187	2800	-187
Pelicans R2	3071	19840	-3071
Jazz R2	1640	16400	-1640
Celtics R2	1168	4790	4790
Raptors R2	2048	1113	-2048
Celtics R3	1521	3680	0
Rockets R3	6733	12120	0
		Current Tab	-1503

Nylon Calculus isn’t being quite as bold as 538 or ESPN, but they also have the Rockets favored, and are risking a bit under 52% of their bankroll on the conference finals. For the record, that’s insane, just less so than ESPN or 538.

Nylon Calculus	Risked	To Win	Result
Spurs	450	2988	-450
Pass	0	0	0
Heat	125	500	-125
Pelicans	1444	2600	2600
Bucks	57	80	-57
Pacers	841	3800	-841
Pass	0	0	0
Timberwolves	293	4400	-293
Pelicans R2	1599	10329	-1599
Jazz R2	1266	12660	-1266
Celtics R2	1952	8003	8003
Raptors R2	1366	743	-1366
Celtics R3	2001	4843	0
Rockets R3	3179	5722	0
		Current Tab	4606

 

NBA Playoff Tracking: Ain’t no faith in Lebron around here.

ESPN is going full bore on the Raptors (They have them winning the series 88% of the time!):

ESPN	Risked	To Win	Result
Spurs	450	2988	-450
Raptors	900	150	150
Heat	375	1500	-375
Pass	0	0	0
Celtics	3808	2410	2410
Pacers	3527	15944	-3527
Thunder	2715	2011	-2715
Rockets	7182	264	264
Pass	0	0	0
Jazz R2	1200	12000	0
Celtics R2	3905	16010	0
Raptors R2	6592	3583	0
		Current Tab	-4243

538 is confident, but not insanely so:

538	Risked	To Win	Result
Spurs	3557	23616	-3557
Raptors	3700	617	617
Sixers	2800	560	560
Pelicans	978	1760	1760
Celtics	3034	1920	1920
Pacers	1207	5456	-1207
Jazz	467	560	560
Timberwolves	187	2800	-187
Pelicans R2	3071	19840	0
Jazz R2	1640	16400	0
Celtics R2	1168	4790	0
Raptors R2	2048	1113	0
		Current Tab	467

Finally, Nylon Calculus is more cautious still:

Nylon Calculus	Risked	To Win	Result
Spurs	450	2988	-450
Pass	0	0	0
Heat	125	500	-125
Pelicans	1444	2600	2600
Bucks	57	80	-57
Pacers	841	3800	-841
Pass	0	0	0
Timberwolves	293	4400	-293
Pelicans R2	1599	10329	0
Jazz R2	1266	12660	0
Celtics R2	1952	8003	0
Raptors R2	1366	743	0
		Current Tab	834

 

 

2018 NBA Tracking: Celtic Pride?

 

Brutal Celtics-76ers series were a staple of my childhood. Bird vs. Dr. J ended up being immortalized as a great fight, video game, and image of racial harmony. This year the Celtics are wounded while the 76ers look ascendant. Not that BPI notices (or cares)

The @celtics advanced to face the @sixers in the second round after a 112-96 win in Game 7 Saturday.

BPI suggests it will be another close series for Boston. pic.twitter.com/LuZZ5trdQb

— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) April 29, 2018

Supposedly BPI doesn’t take injuries into account, which is… insane? In any event, they believe what they believe. Let’s see how this goes:

ESPN	Risked	To Win	Result
Spurs	450	2988	-450
Raptors	900	150	150
Heat	375	1500	-375
Pass	0	0	0
Celtics	3808	2410	2410
Pacers	3527	15944	-3527
Thunder	2715	2011	-2715
Rockets	7182	264	264
Pass	0	0	0
Jazz R2	1200	12000	0
Celtics R2	3905	16010	0
		Current Tab	-4243

538 is somewhat more cautious with the Elo-based system:

538	Risked	To Win	Result
Spurs	3557	23616	-3557
Raptors	3700	617	617
Sixers	2800	560	560
Pelicans	978	1760	1760
Celtics	3034	1920	1920
Pacers	1207	5456	-1207
Jazz	467	560	560
Timberwolves	187	2800	-187
Pelicans R2	3071	19840	0
Jazz R2	1640	16400	0
Celtics R2	1168	4790	0
		Current Tab	467

Finally, Nylon Calculus splits the difference. Frankly, right now the second round looks rough for all three systems.

Nylon Calculus	Risked	To Win	Result
Spurs	450	2988	-450
Pass	0	0	0
Heat	125	500	-125
Pelicans	1444	2600	2600
Bucks	57	80	-57
Pacers	841	3800	-841
Pass	0	0	0
Timberwolves	293	4400	-293
Pelicans R2	1599	10329	0
Jazz R2	1266	12660	0
Celtics R2	1952	8003	0
		Current Tab	834

 

 

 

 

 

NBA Playoff Tracking: Jazzercise!

Anyone else remember Jazzercise?

The 80’s truly were a magical time. ESPN will be rooting pretty heavily for the Jazz this round:

ESPN	Risked	To Win	Result
Spurs	450	2988	-450
Raptors	900	150	150
Heat	375	1500	-375
Pass	0	0	0
Celtics	3808	2410	2410
Pacers	3527	15944	-3527
Thunder	2715	2011	-2715
Rockets	7182	264	264
Pass	0	0	0
Jazz R2	1200	12000	0
		Current Tab	-4243

As will 538:

538	Risked	To Win	Result
Spurs	3557	23616	-3557
Raptors	3700	617	617
Sixers	2800	560	560
Pelicans	978	1760	1760
Celtics	3034	1920	1920
Pacers	1207	5456	-1207
Jazz	467	560	560
Timberwolves	187	2800	-187
Pelicans R2	3071	19840	0
Jazz	1640	16400	0
		Current Tab	467

Nylon Calculus is in the same boat:

Nylon Calculus	Risked	To Win	Result
Spurs	450	2988	-450
Pass	0	0	0
Heat	125	500	-125
Pelicans	1444	2600	2600
Bucks	57	80	-57
Pacers	841	3800	-841
Pass	0	0	0
Timberwolves	293	4400	-293
Pelicans R2	1599	10329	0
Jazz	1266	12660	0
		Current Tab	834

 

 

 

NBA Kelly-Tracking Round Two

The NBA will be rolling these out day-by-day, so I’ll update as we go.

ESPN	Risked	To Win	Result
Spurs	450	2988	-450
Raptors	900	150	150
Heat	375	1500	-375
Pass	0	0	0
Celtics	3808	2410	0
Pacers	3527	15944	0
Thunder	2715	2011	-2715
Rockets	7182	264	264
Pass	0	0
		Current Tab	-3126

ESPN will be sitting the Pelicans-Warriors out. They’re alone in that decision.

538	Risked	To Win	Result
Spurs	3557	23616	-3557
Raptors	3700	617	617
Sixers	2800	560	560
Pelicans	978	1760	1760
Celtics	3034	1920	0
Pacers	1207	5456	0
Jazz	467	560	560
Timberwolves	187	2800	-187
Pelicans R2	3071	19840	0
		Current Tab	-247

538 is looking like they’ll enter second round with a positive ledger. Like the first round, they are fading the Warriors pretty hard.

Nylon Calculus	Risked	To Win	Result
Spurs	450	2988	-450
Pass	0	0	0
Heat	125	500	-125
Pelicans	1444	2600	2600
Bucks	57	80	0
Pacers	841	3800	0
Pass	0	0	0
Timberwolves	293	4400	-293
Pelicans R2	1599	10329
		Current Tab	1732

A bit more conservative than ESPN, but solid results so far.