PFF is coming off of a monster win courtesy of the Chiefs-Patriots shootout. Their tab is back under $300K:

Current Tab -$288,397.50
% of Bankroll -144.20%
Standard Dev 294664
Two-tailed Z -0.98

Tonight they’ll be riding with the Pack and the under. Oddly enough, that’s not what their internal record keeping will reflect:

SF-GB2.PNG

+9.5 (or 10, since they track as of Tuesday morning). Mind you, if your internal line is +9, that doesn’t mean you’d happily lay +10 -116, but that’s a story for another day:

Team Line Risked To Win Result
Packers 0 21158 5303 0
SF-GB u46 17468 15880 0

 

 

 

 

 

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60 points or bust! PFF’s projection tonight is nice-and-a-half:

KC-NE2

Hopefully we see a Big-12 style shootout for PFF’s sake. They need it after a rough afternoon dropped them back under -400K:

Current Tab -$411,530.64
% of Bankroll -205.77%
Standard Dev 269415
Two-tailed Z -1.53

For the record, my preference was to defer to PFF and give them New England on the spread if the EV was roughly equal. Unfortunately, at the time I was locking in the price that wasn’t the case. Also, I still have no idea what defines a moneyline pick for PFF.

Team Line Risked To Win Result
KC-NE O59.5 115804 119278 0
Patriots 0 7324 3855 0

 

 

 

PFF is expecting some points this afternoon. For their sake let’s sit back and watch the fireworks.

A solid morning clawed back a little over $4K.

Current Tab -$310,138.74
% of Bankroll -155.07%
Standard Dev 242898
Two-tailed Z -1.28

Please note, when PFF’s internal moneyline has a game as a pick, so will I. Examples:

I figure they’ll get the hang of it eventually.

Team Line Risked To Win Result
LAR-Den o50 95228 89838 0
Rams 0 29831 10181 0
Jax-Dal u39 9030 9120 0
Cowboys 3 32182 32825 0
Ravens 0 19543 14918 0
Bal-Ten O43.5 55058 53454 0

 

 

 

 

So, you have the Steelers at -106, but your internal line is Bengals -0.5 and your final score is Bengals by 1. I’m seeing some inconsistencies in PFF’s story:

Pit-Cin2

And then there is this attempt at a middle:

Sea-Oak2

As you wish.

Team Line Risked To Win Result
Pit-Cin O49.5 42840 42840 0
Steelers 0 9574 9957 0
LAC-Clev u47 16040 14582 0
Bills 10.5 45277 40068 0
Buf-Hou U40.5 9680 8963 0
TB-Atl u57 2566 2376 0
Buccaneers 3 17384 15804 0
Seahawks 0 4608 3093 0
Raiders 3 9127 8373 0
Sea-Oak o48 39882 36927 0
Car-Wash U44.5 18582 17206 0
Panthers 0 922 782 0
Cardinals 10 179 156 0
Ariz-Min O42.5 12295 10978 0
Colts 2.5 4891 4940 0
Chi-Mia u41 5839 5357 0
Dolphins 7.5 63445 53767 0

Please note, I gave PFF plenty of time to update their Chi-Mia line. This is their final answer.

Their Thursday night sweep has cut into the tab. Let’s see if they can keep the run going:

Current Tab -$314,678.82
% of Bankroll -157.34%
Standard Dev 223078
Two-tailed Z -1.41

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I have a set of rules here. Unless I am not going to be available, I track all picks as of one hour before kickoff. If I’m going to be unavailable, I’ll announce so in advance and set a time to lock in the picks accordingly. Tonight, that rule created a conundrum. PFF had a moneyline of -166, with their expected market price of -115. However, there was movement towards the Eagles which moved the moneyline to -130 as of 7:20, which is my listed cutoff. I knew that PFF would want to adjust their lines to track the market move, and they did:

phil-NYG2

Unfortunately, I am stuck with the plays as of 7:20. Them’s the rules folks. I just want to make it clear that if I applied PFF’s intent, they’d have more on the Eagles tonight.

Eagles 0 27086 20835 0
Phi-NYG O44.5 24989 23138 0

After a win on MNF PFF has cut the deficit:

Current Tab -$358,651.98
% of Bankroll -179.33%
Standard Dev 220894
Two-tailed Z -1.62

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I am never, ever, attempting to do this again. Some brief notes:

  1. Duke is on top. Sigh.
  2. Nevada may end up on the #1 line. That feels weird to me.
  3. The ACC is still loaded.
  4. I’m really curious how Syracuse will put the pieces together this year. Real curious.
1 Duke 0.9508
2 Kansas 0.945
3 Gonzaga 0.9432
4 Kentucky 0.9403
5 Villanova 0.9363
6 Nevada 0.9338
7 North Carolina 0.9327
8 Virginia 0.913
9 Michigan State 0.9054
10 Michigan 0.9008
11 Tennessee 0.8964
12 Oregon 0.895
13 Auburn 0.8916
14 West Virginia 0.8902
15 UCLA 0.8892
16 Purdue 0.8887
17 Florida 0.885
18 Wichita State 0.881
19 Texas Tech 0.877
20 Indiana 0.872
21 Syracuse 0.867
22 Arizona 0.862
23 Ohio State 0.86
24 Florida State 0.86
25 Clemson 0.86
26 Cincinnati 0.859
27 Arizona State 0.858
28 Miami Florida 0.856
29 LSU 0.855
30 Virginia Tech 0.854
31 Wisconsin 0.85
32 Maryland 0.825
33 Kansas State 0.825
34 Texas A&M 0.825
35 NC State 0.825
36 Vanderbilt 0.825
37 Louisville 0.825
38 Xavier 0.822
39 Texas 0.822
40 St John’s 0.822

It’s funny. Despite the huge swings this week, PFF will finish up for the week with a win tonight. They got off to a great start, winning $100K on New England’s high scoring win over the Colts. They gave all of that back and then some on the 1 PM ET games. A win last night with Dallas +3.5 put them down 13,474 on the week. Embracing the variance leads to such swings.

Current Tab -$374,100.10
% of Bankroll -187.05%
Standard Dev 220353
Two-tailed Z -1.70

As for tonight, PFF is rooting for offensive production. We’ll see how that goes.

Wash-NO o52 15603 15448 0