PFF: The early season recap

First, let me give you the topline:

Net Result	-305280
Bankroll %	-152.64%

Yes, it really has been that bad. Pro Football Focus has been lighting money on fire over the last two weeks. You wouldn’t know that by their self-proclaimed win rates (53.8% against the spread, 63.6% against O/U’s, 70.0% on moneylines). Thing is, I’ve been recording everything. I can check this stuff. It ain’t pretty. And then there is the embarrassing MyBookie affiliation. At this point I’m beginning to suspect that PFF is in well over their heads in a world they don’t understand.

Also, I’m going to talk more about what defines a “pick” on Sunday. Until then, the full results:

Team	Line	Risked	To Win	Result
Patriots	0	37945	15178	15178
Patriots	-6.5	19880	19880	19880
Steelers	-3.5	21807	22898	-21807
Steelers	0	17387	10109	0
Jaguars	-3	22367	23038	23038
Jaguars	0	23282	15838	15838
Seahawks	0	13448	20845	-13448
Seahawks	3	18187	19642	0
Lions	-7	4080	4080	-4080
Lions	0	7640	2547	-7640
Cin-Ind	U47.5	18119	17764	-18119
TB-NO	U50	20158	18840	-20158
Falcons	-5.5	3114	2883	2883
Falcons	0	7749	3312	3312
Car-ATL	U43.5	12850	12356	-12850
SD-Buf	U41.5	21878	19889	-21878
Bills	7.5	29387	26006	-29387
Saints	0	36459	8558	8558
Saints	-9.5	10659	9961	-10659
Cle-NO	U50.5	39600	39600	39600
Titans	3.5	2254	1995	1995
Titans	0	2932	4779	4779
KC-Pit	o53	24062	21875	21875
Steelers	0	5262	2555	-5262
Steelers	-4.5	1631	1568	-1631
Redskins	0	19837	8405	-19837
Eagles	0	17614	11902	-17614
Eagles	-3	16420	16420	-16420
Lions	6	7087	6880	6880
Lions	0	3989	9014	-3989
Det-SF	O48.5	13520	12291	12291
Patriots	0	10630	8370	-10630
Patriots	-2	11997	11318	-11997
Broncos	0	5361	2119	2119
Broncos	-6.5	3151	3246	-3151
Cowboys	0	10919	7136	7136
Cowboys	-3	8941	8356	8356
Seahawks	0	8264	15867	-8264
Seahawks	4.5	12570	12204	-12570
Jets	3	14346	14776	-14346
Jets	0	11549	17670	-11549
NYJ-Cle	o41	29358	28503	-29358
Falcons	0	9844	8203	-9844
Falcons	-1.5	10866	10349	-10866
NO-Atl	U53.5	40285	39887	-40285
Panthers	-2.5	13549	11781	11781
Panthers	0	7992	5628	5628
Giants	6	2216	2110	2110
Dolphins	0	5181	3754	3754
Dolphins	-3	1923	2000	2000
Chiefs	0	34379	14567	14567
Chiefs	-5.5	19553	17939	17939
SF-KC	o53	13133	12160	12160
Jaguars	0	25650	5700	-25650
Eagles	0	31393	11937	11937
Eagles	-6	17743	16130	-17743
Bills	16.5	4658	4235	4235
Buf-Min	o41	26836	25317	-26836
Redskins	2.5	10637	9849	9849
Rams	0	7873	2540	2540
Rams	-7	6965	6762	6762
SD-LAR	u49	41536	38107	-41536
Bears	0	17858	8044	8044
Bears	-5.5	9787	9502	-9787
Dal-Sea	o40	31104	30198	-31104
Patriots	0	42524	15297	-42524
Buccaneers	0	14787	12426	-14787
Buccaneers	-1.5	14695	13864	-14695

 

 

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PFF-MNF: Who are the real Buccaneers?

After last night’s Patriots loss, PFF is now down $275,798, or 137.9% of their initial bankroll.

Please note, I am keeping all bets sized with a constant $200,000 bankroll. If we were adjusting for bankroll changes, they’d be down $160,909, with $39,091 remaining. That would put them down 80.45%.

Tonight they are backing the Buccaneers. Note: These are as of 5:30 PM. I’m not going to be able to check one hour before gametime as I’ll be out and about. Cheers!

Buccaneers	0	14787	12426	0
Buccaneers	-1.5	14695	13864	0

 

 

 

 

PFF: It’s been a rough day

PFF has now gone negative beyond their initial $200,000 bankroll as they’re down $233,273 (-116.64%). This week has just been brutal for them:

Jets	3	14346	14776	-14346
Jets	0	11549	17670	-11549
NYJ-Cle	o41	29358	28503	-29358
Falcons	0	9844	8203	-9844
Falcons	-1.5	10866	10349	-10866
NO-Atl	U53.5	40285	39887	-40285
Panthers	-2.5	13549	11781	11781
Panthers	0	7992	5628	5628
Giants	6	2216	2110	2110
Dolphins	0	5181	3754	3754
Dolphins	-3	1923	2000	2000
Chiefs	0	34379	14567	14567
Chiefs	-5.5	19553	17939	17939
SF-KC	o53	13133	12160	12160
Jaguars	0	25650	5700	-25650
Eagles	0	31393	11937	11937
Eagles	-6	17743	16130	-17743
Bills	16.5	4658	4235	4235
Buf-Min	o41	26836	25317	-26836
Redskins	2.5	10637	9849	9849
Rams	0	7873	2540	2540
Rams	-7	6965	6762	6762
SD-LAR	u49	41536	38107	-41536
Bears	0	17858	8044	8044
Bears	-5.5	9787	9502	-9787
Dal-Sea	o40	31104	30198	-31104

That’s -$155,599 this week alone. Perhaps the Patriots will cut into the tab:

Patriots

0

42524

15297

0

 

 

 

PFF: The afternoon slate

It looked like it was going to be a good morning for PFF, but things broke against them late. PFF is down -$168,192 (84.1% of their bankroll.)

Perhaps things will be better this afternoon:

Rams	0	7873	2540	0
Rams	-7	6965	6762	0
SD-LAR	u49	41536	38107	0
Bears	0	17858	8044	0
Bears	-5.5	9787	9502	0
Dal-Sea	o40	31104	30198	0

PFF: It’s a big morning slate

Shooters have to shoot. Touts have to tout:

These have lost a shitload of money so far but I understand the need for additional revenue streams, even if they bankrupt your readers. Eat shit.

— Lou (@SliceSlicing) September 23, 2018

So let’s look at PFF’s thoughts on week three:

still good at -2.5 ?

— NOT cLuELeSs (@sImPLyDiGGsAGAi) September 22, 2018

That’s a darn good question. PFF gave us an update:

they tweeted out atl -3 earlier in the week. now that market is at -1.5 they changed their internal line and took the pick down lol pic.twitter.com/EFzwFXSUFL

— rick (@chattim3) September 23, 2018

Now, this leads to some questions. For one, what exactly determines whether something is a pick?

What the hell is this pick on the under? pic.twitter.com/4BbMs2BOMj

— Jdemz (@Jdemz) September 23, 2018

In short, it’s impossible to know when something is or not a pick by their standards:

any clue how they get to this record? they don't list individual picks anywhere that I'm aware of and are pretty vague about when they're actually made during the week pic.twitter.com/ZJyiAJdGmN

— rick (@chattim3) September 23, 2018

Heading into today, I’d recorded eight O/U bets. They went 3-5 in them:

Team	Line	Risked	To Win	Result
Patriots	0	37945	15178	15178
Patriots	-6.5	19880	19880	19880
Steelers	-3.5	21807	22898	-21807
Steelers	0	17387	10109	0
Jaguars	-3	22367	23038	23038
Jaguars	0	23282	15838	15838
Seahawks	0	13448	20845	-13448
Seahawks	3	18187	19642	0
Lions	-7	4080	4080	-4080
Lions	0	7640	2547	-7640
Cin-Ind	U47.5	18119	17764	-18119
TB-NO	U50	20158	18840	-20158
Falcons	-5.5	3114	2883	2883
Falcons	0	7749	3312	3312
Car-ATL	U43.5	12850	12356	-12850
SD-Buf	U41.5	21878	19889	-21878
Bills	7.5	29387	26006	-29387
Saints	0	36459	8558	8558
Saints	-9.5	10659	9961	-10659
Cle-NO	U50.5	39600	39600	39600
Titans	3.5	2254	1995	1995
Titans	0	2932	4779	4779
KC-Pit	o53	24062	21875	21875
Steelers	0	5262	2555	-5262
Steelers	-4.5	1631	1568	-1631
Redskins	0	19837	8405	-19837
Eagles	0	17614	11902	-17614
Eagles	-3	16420	16420	-16420
Lions	6	7087	6880	6880
Lions	0	3989	9014	-3989
Det-SF	O48.5	13520	12291	12291
Patriots	0	10630	8370	-10630
Patriots	-2	11997	11318	-11997
Broncos	0	5361	2119	2119
Broncos	-6.5	3151	3246	-3151
Cowboys	0	10919	7136	7136
Cowboys	-3	8941	8356	8356
Seahawks	0	8264	15867	-8264
Seahawks	4.5	12570	12204	-12570
Jets	3	14346	14776	-14346
Jets	0	11549	17670	-11549
NYJ-Cle	o41	29358	28503	-29358
			Sum	-132927
			Bankroll	-66.46%

It’s rather difficult to take their listed results at face value. That’s why  I Kelly-track the picks. Perhaps they’ll have a better morning. Reminder, I check their lines against market prices one hour before kickoff:

Team	Line	Risked	To Win	Result
Falcons	0	9844	8203	0
Falcons	-1.5	10866	10349	0
NO-Atl	U53.5	40285	39887	0
Panthers	-2.5	13549	11781	0
Panthers	0	7992	5628	0
Giants	6	2216	2110	0
Dolphins	0	5181	3754	0
Dolphins	-3	1923	2000	0
Chiefs	0	34379	14567	0
Chiefs	-5.5	19553	17939	0
SF-KC	o53	13133	12160	0
Jaguars	0	25650	5700	0
Eagles	0	31393	11937	0
Eagles	-6	17743	16130	0
Bills	16.5	4658	4235	0
Buf-Min	o41	26836	25317	0
Redskins	2.5	10637	9849	0

Oh, one last bit:

stop partnering with mybookie, it's embarrassing

— NOT cLuELeSs (@sImPLyDiGGsAGAi) September 21, 2018

I’ll see y’all in 3.5 hours.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PFF: I’m concerned

The left is from Tuesday. The right is from today.

Please excuse the pixelization. I’m not used to using screencaps.

Let me bring your attention to the internal moneyline. PFF had the Jets -105. That does not appear to jive with their internal spread or their projected score. In a world with ties, I’ll let -0.5 slide, but your spread favorite should be your moneyline favorite. I am a little curious what changed as the week progressed:

The internal moneyline has now moved from Jets -105 to Browns -115. I’m rather curious what was behind that. I’ve seen PFF move their internal opinion as the line moves. Case in point, their projected O/U moved from 41 to 44. Again, why? I have no idea.

Please note: None of this should be taken as tacit approval for affiliating with MyBookie. PFF should be ashamed of themselves for seeking affiliate money to begin with. Choosing to ally with an absolute garbage book just makes it worse.

Be a 24%er https://t.co/XYe2eCLN71

— George Chahrouri (@PFF_George) September 20, 2018

 

Jets are +3.5 (+100) on @betmybookie, I would presume this is all the motivation they need…

— George Chahrouri (@PFF_George) September 21, 2018

Welp!

In any event, PFF is down $77,674 on the season (38.84% of their bankroll)

Jets	3	14346	14776	0
Jets	0	11549	17670	0
NYJ-Cle	o41	29358	28503	0

 

 

 

 

 

 

PFF: MNF

PFF is currently down $56,840 (28.4%). They can take a huge chunk out of that tonight.

Seahawks	0	8264	15867	0
Seahawks	4.5	12570	12204	0