AFC East:

Buffalo Bills: 11-6

New York Jets: 9-8

Miami Dolphins: 9-8

New England Patriots: 8-9

Buffalo Bills:

2022 Record: 13-3

Projections:

Scouting Wins: 10.09

DVOA Wins: 10.8

FPI Wins: 10.25

Market Wins: 10.84

Implied Pythag: 70.34%

It’s an odd thing. The Bills finished first in DVOA last season. They were favored in their road win at Kansas City. But by the end of the season, something was clearly off. Injuries had taken their toll. In the wild card round, the Skylar Thompson-led Dolphins rallied from a 17-0 deficit to take a 24-20 lead before Buffalo rallied to win 34-31.

Cincinnati dominated Buffalo in the divisional round, winning easily, 27-10. This was in the snow in Buffalo. A few weeks earlier, Cincinnati was outplaying Buffalo before Damar Hamlin’s cardiac incident caused their game to be canceled. Buffalo was the best team in the NFL for much of the season, but did not finish as such.

Quarterback Josh Allen played through a torn UCL. He put up another impressive season:

2020: 4,544 yards, 37 TD, 10 INT, 7.3 NY/P, 25.9% DVOA, 1,534 DYAR

2021: 4,407 yards, 36 TD, 15 INT, 6.3 NY/P, 4.9% DVOA, 842 DYAR

2022: 4,283 yards, 35 TD, 14 INT, 6.9 NY/P, 15.9% DVOA, 1,313 DYAR (in 16 games)

Allen had a scare in practice, but he appears to be healthy to start the season.

#1WR Stefon Diggs had a monster year:

2020: 127 receptions, 1,535 yards, +17.4 +/-, 15.8% DVOA, 377 DYAR

2021: 103 receptions, 1,225 yards, +5.2 +/-, 0.5% DVOA, 178 DYAR

2022: 108 receptions, 1,429 yards, +10.2 +/-, 22.3% DVOA, 434 DYAR (in 16 games)

Diggs is awesome. The real question for Buffalo is “Does he have enough help?”

2020 fourth-round pick Gabriel Davis isn’t really #2WR material:

2020: 35 receptions, 599 yards, -1.3 +/-, 10.7% DVOA, 115 DYAR

2021: 35 receptions, 549 yards, -2.5 +/-, 9.2% DVOA, 111 DYAR

2022: 48 receptions, 836 yards, -4.5 +/-, 7.0% DVOA, 146 DYAR (in 15 games)

Yes, he had a monster game vs. the Chiefs in the 2021 divisional round (eight receptions, 201 yards, 121 DYAR). His body of work suggests the Bills would be much better off with a better Robin to Diggs’ Batman.

It’s not clear whether budget free-agent pickup Trent Sherfield or 2022 fifth-round pick Khalil Shakir will be the #3WR. Shakir didn’t do much for Buffalo last year:

2022: 10 receptions, 161 yards, -1.6 +/-, -0.5% DVOA, 20 DYAR (in 14 games)

Sherfield was not an essential piece of the Dolphins’ offense in 2022:

2022: 30 receptions, 417 yards, -2.6 +/-, -1.4% DVOA, 43 DYAR

It’s not easy finding potentially elite receivers, especially when you’re usually picking late in round one. I’ve had issues with the Bills’ receiver corps for a while.

That’s not to say they haven’t tried to give Allen a new target. Rookie first-round pick Dalton Kincaid was the first tight end off the board:

Dalton Kincaid: If you make me learn about spinal injuries, I give you a medical red flag. Those are the rules. Kincaid was unable to test at the combine or his pro day.

I can tell you that Kincaid looked athletic on film. He’s a tad undersized for the position, but he makes up for it with long arms and large hands. His blocking skills are poor and should not be leaned on except when necessary.

Kincaid is a former basketball player who has developed into a highly productive receiver:

2021: 46 targets, 36 receptions, 510 yards, 8 TD, 28.4 EPA

2022: 96 targets, 70 receptions, 890 yards, 8 TD, 35.6 EPA

I’ll admit I’m a little leery of how easily linebackers were able to bully Kincaid. He’s going to need to improve his play strength to hold his own.

The upside here is tremendous. Unfortunately, we have the injury risks in addition to all the normal caveats that apply to tight ends. With clean medicals, Kincaid is my #3TE in the draft. With a red flag, I likely wouldn’t touch him at all.

(Editor’s note: Kincaid will turn 24 in October, bad back and all.)

Kincaid must have passed the Bills’ medical checks. He may end up as the Bills’ true slot receiver.

Dawson Knox will likely remain the Bills #1TE. He’s a much better blocker than Kincaid, and there’s no real reason they can’t both be used in 2TE sets.

2021: 49 receptions, 587 yards, +0.9 +/-, 18.4% DVOA, 126 DYAR (in 15 games)

2022: 48 receptions, 517 yards, +3.8 +/-, 11.5% DVOA, 82 DYAR (in 15 games)

2022 second-round pick James Cook had a fine rookie campaign:

2022: 121 squid, 687 yards, 17.4% DVOA, 146 DYAR (in 16 games)

He’s now the #1RB, so look for his usage to increase. Free-agent pickup Damien Harris will provide depth.

Left tackle Dion Dawkins did a pretty nice job in pass protection. He had an issue with penalties, though. It hasn’t been a chronic thing for him, so I expect he’ll clean that up.

Premium free-agent pickup left guard Connor McCovern did a fantastic job in Dallas, finishing third in my rankings. He should give Buffalo a boost.

Center Mitch Morse was solidly above-average. Having said that, he and Allen failed in their most crucial snap of the season.

Rookie second-round pick O’Cyrus Torrence will eventually start at right guard:

O’Cyrus Torrence: Transferred to Florida for his senior season after started his college career at Louisiana. The jump in competition didn’t faze Torrence. Dominant right guard (First Team All-SEC). Opponents likely have nightmares about his huge hands locking on.

You might expect Torrence to have had a problem with holding penalties, but that wasn’t the case. Torrence has learned how to do his job without getting flagged.

There are a lot of offensive tackles who I expect will have to move inside after the draft. One common thread with them is that they started out playing other positions and bulked up to play tackle. Torrence is the opposite. He was 420 in high school and had to work to keep the weight off. What he lacks in athleticism, he makes up for with technique and power.

Torrence is not going to be a fit for every blocking scheme. Asking him to pull and hit the edge isn’t his best usage. What he can do is open up holes in the running game and stand his ground in pass protection. He doesn’t carry the risks of a converted tackle who might not adapt to the new role.

I’m not too worried about the mediocre combine numbers or him only having one season against top competition. He faced Jalen Carter and played well in the matchup. He’s the best pure guard on the board. If he’s a good fit for your scheme and you have a positional need, Torrence makes sense outside of the top 20.

Backup Ryan Bates might start if the Bills feel Torrence isn’t ready. Bates did a solid job when called in last season.

2021 third-round pick right tackle Spencer Brown was playing hurt last season. He still finished with decent numbers. He’s clearly capable of better when healthy.

The Bills have solid interior depth, but it might be a disaster if one of the tackles goes down.

Two years ago, defensive tackles DaQuan Jones and Ed Oliver had five sacks and 52 hits+hurries (Jones was in Carolina). Last year, they had 4.5 sacks and 51 hits+hurries for Buffalo. The Bills have been consistently stout against the run.

Tim Settle, Jordan Phillips, and free-agent pickup Poona Ford (three sacks, 16 hits+hurries) will provide depth. Phillips in particular is a monster against the run.

Between free agency and the draft, the Bills have been serious about putting together a deep pass-rush. Von Miller had eight sacks in 11 games (30 hits+hurries) before an ACL injury ended his campaign. He’ll start this season on the PUP list and will miss the first four games.

2021 first-round pick Greg Rousseau (eight sacks, 26 hits+hurries) will start across from free-agent pickup Leonard Floyd (nine sacks, 51 hits+hurries).

Shaq Lawson (3.5 sacks, 15 hits+hurries) and 2020 second-round pick AJ Epenesa (6.5 sacks, 14 hits+hurries) will provide depth.

I want to note that the Bills’ defensive ends were particularly good against the run. Lawson, Miller, and Epenesa had great numbers when asked to set the edge.

Rookie third-round pick Dorian Williams will give the Bills’ linebacker corps an injection of speed. Williams is undersized and isn’t ready to take on NFL-level blocking just yet. He’s currently battling a calf injury.

All-Pro linebacker Matt Milano merited the selection. He was fantastic last season. He did a fine job both attacking the line of scrimmage and in coverage. Three interceptions were a wonderful bonus.

Tyrel Dodson and 2022 third-round pick Terrel Bernard are competing for playing time alongside Milano. Bernard is similar to Williams: Fast and undersized. Dodson looked decent in limited usage last season.

I was a little surprised when the Bills cut AJ Klein. They had re-signed him, which included $100K in guaranteed money. Either he failed to impress or the Bills have faith in their young linebackers.

Last year #1CB Tre’Davious White started the season on the PUP list as he recovered from an ACL tear. When he returned, he clearly wasn’t 100%. He was dominant in 2021. Hopefully, he’s fully healthy and returns to form.

2022 first-round pick Kair Elam had a rough rookie campaign. It’s not uncommon for cornerbacks to have a tough transition to the NFL. It was a bit extreme in his case. The Bills are hoping he uses it as a growth experience.

Taron Johnson did a fine job in the slot. His presence gives the Bills an edge.

2020 seventh-round pick Dane Jackson started for most of last year. He doesn’t have the upside Elam offers. However, he knows how to play cornerback, which is something Elam is still learning. We’ll see who ends up earning more snaps this year.

I didn’t give Elam a first-round grade due to his lack of agility and general lack of play strength. There’s a possibility his ceiling is that of a dime cornerback, covering third and fourth receivers.

A neck injury limited safety Micah Hyde to two games last season. Jordan Poyer could only play in twelve. They each had five interceptions in 2021. This is a great pairing if both can stay healthy.

Free-agent pickup Taylor Rapp and 2021 sixth-round pick Damar Hamlin will provide depth. Watching Hamlin play in the preseason against the Colts was electric. As for Rapp, he did a decent job with the Rams.

The Bills have excellent special teams across the board. 2020 sixth-round pick kicker Tyler Bass has range and accuracy. Punter Sam Martin did an excellent job last season. The coverage units were exemplary. The blocking on returns was well above par. Deonte Harty and Khalil Shakir are competing for the return jobs while Nyheim Hines recovers from a non-football injury. Mr. Hines, that was some bullshit, and I wish you a speedy recovery.

The Bills are putting together an incredibly dominant run with very little to show for it. Over the past three seasons the Bills have gone 37-12, outscoring their opponents by 489 points over that span. Just for fun, here’s their playoff scoring results, by round:

Wildcard: 108-72, 3-0.

Divisional: 63-72, 1-2.

AFC CG: 24-38, 0-1.

That AFC Championship Game was three years ago. The Bills are desperate to get back. The division has gotten tougher, with the Jets importing Aaron Rodgers. Miami remains a threat. New England is strong, as bottom feeders go. The Bills face a brutal schedule.

I still think Buffalo can reach the pinnacle. Lack of receiving depth behind Diggs aside, this is a very strong roster. Eleven wins would be nothing to sneeze at given the context. The real question will be what happens in January? 11-6.

Miami Dolphins:

2022 Record: 9-8

Projections:

Scouting Wins: 9.9

DVOA Wins: 8.5

FPI Wins: 9.15

Market Wins: 9.39

Implied Pythag: 60.18%

I don’t know how concerned to be that Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa considered retirement after last season. I don’t know how concerned I should be that he’s trying to learn how to fall safely to prevent head injuries. I can tell you that Tua missed four games last season due to concussions, and that he’s never come close to playing a full season:

2020: 1,814 yards, 11 TD, 5 INT, 5.4 NY/P, -8.5% DVOA, 74 DYAR (in 10 games)

2021: 2,653 yards, 16 TD, 10 INT, 6.1 NY/P, -0.7% DVOA, 298 DYAR (in 13 games)

2022: 3,548 yards, 25 TD, 8 INT, 8.0 NY/P, 28.8% DVOA, 1,105 DYAR (in 13 games)

The Dolphins gave him two elite receivers and an offensive scheme that played to his strengths. Tua responded with his best season. 8.0 NY/P is the kind of thing that can take you to a Super Bowl. But was that Tua? Or should most of the credit go to the surrounding cast?

I would be remiss if I didn’t mention that Tua’s efficiency dropped later in the season. The Dolphins’ offense peaked in weeks 8-10 and regressed when opponents switched to press coverage to throw off the offensive timing. That’s something the Dolphins will need to counter this season.

Neither Skyler Thompson nor Teddy Bridgewater was able to produce a positive DVOA when Tua was out. It’s fair to say that Tua’s presence matters quite a bit. As a Jets fan, I can tell you that backup Mike White is good for one absurd offensive performance/win, then turns back into a pumpkin. The Dolphins picked up Tua’s fifth-year option.

Can the Dolphins count on Tua? Head injuries are hard to predict. Steve Young and Troy Aikman both had concussions end their respective careers.

The Dolphins might have paid through the nose to acquire Tyreek Hill. They have to happy with the results:

2022: 119 receptions, 1,710 yards, +11.4 +/-, 15.5% DVOA, 388 DYAR

Hill’s presence stretched defenses to the breaking point. That opened up space for 2021 first-round pick Jaylen Waddle:

2021: 104 receptions, 1,015 yards, +5.9 +/-, 0.3% DVOA, 146 DYAR (in 16 games)

2022: 75 receptions, 1,356 yards, +4.0 +/-, 30.8% DVOA, 397 DYAR

Waddle was arguably the best deep threat in the NFL last year. He’s been slowed by an abdominal injury this preseason. He should be ready to go week one.

There’s no clear third amigo behind Hill and Waddle. Incumbent Cedrick Wilson played sparingly last season:

2022: 12 receptions, 136 yards, +0.4 +/-, 9.7% DVOA, 29 DYAR (in 15 games)

He’s a decent option in the slot, but that’s not really what the Dolphins need given the presence of Hill and Waddle.

Free-agent pickup Braxton Berrios is another option. Berrios didn’t really do much for the Jets’ passing offense over the past three years:

2022-2022: 101 receptions, 980 yards, -5.5 +/-, -14.6% DVOA, -27 DYAR (in 49 games)

Berrios was signed to return kicks and punts. He’ll be good for the occasional gadget play as well.

We haven’t seen much from 2022 fourth-round pick Erik Ezukanma. Perhaps the Dolphins have been prepping him and he’ll be ready to start this season.

River Cracraft will provide depth.

Durham Smyth has inherited the #1TE job. The thing is, he’s not really a #1TE kind of guy. He’s a #2TE who can block (not well), run routes (not well), and line up wherever you need him. Tyler Kroft and Julian Hill will provide, um… depth.

The Dolphins might have been in the market for an upgrade (or an additional wide receiver), but they forfeited their first round pick due to a number of league rules violations. For a team without a true third receiver, WR1 or TE1 from the draft would have been a nice addition.

#1RB Raheem Mostert played well last season:

2022: 223 squid, 1,093 yards, 9.8% DVOA, 194 DYAR (in 16 games)

He’s a fast and versatile back who provides value any way you can get the ball into his hands.

Rookie third-round pick De’Von Achane will provide depth:

De’von Achane: Pure speed. I wish he was a bigger threat in the passing game. Perhaps he was limited by his small hands and short arms. He was moderately productive last season (1,298 yards-from-scrimmage in 10 games), but not efficient (-6 EPA).

Achane’s pass protection skills will never be NFL-level. He presents a very small target in the passing game. These factors make it tough to gauge his usefulness. He can catch dump offs and will be a problem if he can find some open space to work with. As a ball-carrier he’s a threat to take it deep if he can find a crease and get to the second level.

Achane’s injury history isn’t too bad. Having said that, it’s an open question as to whether his body can stand up to NFL punishment.

Perhaps Achane’s best use in the NFL will be returning kicks. He did an excellent job at Texas A&M, taking two to the house.

Frankly, I’m not seeing a RB-KR hybrid. I’m seeing a KR-RB hybrid. Is that worth a third-round pick? I guess. My current depth chart better have #1KR currently listed as ? though.

As it turns out, the Dolphins don’t need Achane’s return skills. Achane has been slowed by a shoulder injury this preseason.

Jeff Wilson will also provide depth once he returns from injured reserve. He’ll miss the first four games of the season.

Left tackle Terron Armstead did a fine job last season, finishing just outside of my top 10. The Dolphins hope he can play in more than 13 games this year. He had a pretty serious injury scare in practice, but it looks like he’ll be okay to start week one.

(Update: He’s still recovering and should play, but might not be 100%)

It appears Isaiah Wynn won the battle for the starting left guard job. He’s the last man standing, which is not normally how these things go. Wynn was the worst right tackle in the NFL last season. We’ll see how he does at left guard.

(Update: 2021 second-round pick Liam Eichenberg is still in the mix.)

Connor Williams returns as the starting center. Williams cleaned up his issue with flags, but at the expense of providing poor protection. He’s a mediocrity.

2020 second-round pick right guard Robert Hunt did a pretty good in protection, but at the expense of drawing 11 flags. Not great, Bob.

2020 first-round pick right tackle Austin Jackson missed almost all of last season due to ankle injuries. Jackson has failed to live up to his first-round status. The Dolphins declined his fifth-year option. It’s put up or shut up time for Jackson.

If healthy, 2021 second-round pick Liam Eichenberg will provide depth. He finished one spot out of DFL in my rankings. An MCL injury ended his season early.

Two things to note:

1. The Dolphins’ offensive line did a decent job of run blocking last year.

2. The offensive scheme helps protect Tua from pressure by giving him quality release valves early into the play. Actually, that’s one of the things opponents learned to counter late last season, so we’ll have to see how the offense evolves.

2019 first-round pick defensive tackle Christian Wilkins (3.5 sacks, 22 hits+hurries) is playing out Miami’s fifth-year option. He’s been looking for an extension, but the Dolphins have resisted. He recently ended his “hold-in” and should be ready to start the season. Wilkins is a difference maker who soaks up blocking attention and disrupts the line of scrimmage.

Wilkins will be joined by Zach Sieler (3.5 sacks, 22 hits+hurries) and 2020 second-round pick nose tackle Raekwon Davis. Emmanuel Ogbah and Brandon Pili will provide depth.

The new Vic Fangio defensive scheme is going to be a bit more conservative. 2021 first-round pick Jaelan Phillips (seven sacks, 50 hits+hurries) and Bradley Chubb (eight sacks, 41 hits+hurries) will shoulder most of the pass-rush load.

Andrew Van Ginkel will provide depth. Van Ginkle had 5.5 sacks in 2020 and four in 2021, but only managed 0.5 sacks (13 hits+hurries) in limited usage last season. He’s going to need to step up as well.

Inside linebacker Jerome Baker will be joined by free-agent pickup David Long. Long does a fine job against the run. He has more than his fair share of broken tackles because he gets to more runners than most linebackers. He also had two interceptions in twelve games last season. As for Baker, he’s solid all-around.

Duke Riley and 2022 third-round pick Channing Tindall will provide depth. Tindall was an afterthought last season and will need to try and find his niche this year.

I’m not sure what to make of the Dolphins’ secondary. #1CB Xavien Howard is coming off of a rough season. He had five interceptions in 2021, but it was obvious his skills had started to slip. Last year, he had one interception and poor results overall.

Free-agent pickup Eli Apple was run out of Cincinnati for being a weak link. He was initially considered a potential starter but looks to have failed to impress the Dolphins’ brass in practice.

Rookie second-round pick Cam Smith might get tossed into the fire:

Cam Smith: Checks off the height and speed boxes. Six interceptions in his last 30 games. Has shown he can play both inside and outside. But please note: I said height and speed. I did not say “size and speed.”

Smith does not carry a lot of extra weight on his frame, which limits his power. I’m not sure if that’s why he was so aggressive before the ball arrived, drawing 10 flags last season. Admittedly, part of the issue is that he’s a ballhawk and he runs the risk of making contact too early.

That doesn’t excuse all of the flags. His press coverage skills are quite literally hit and miss. When he falls behind, he’s prone to grabbing the receiver. I expect he’ll start his NFL career playing mostly off-man and in zone.

Smith gives a decent effort in the running game. His tackling skills are limited by his lack of mass.

I like that Smith plays fast and has confidence in his reads. His flaws are mostly correctable. If he fits your scheme, I’m comfortable taking Smith early in day two.

2022 undrafted free-agent Kader Kohou made a huge jump from division II to the NFL. He worked his way up the depth chart. Injuries gave him a chance, and the dude made the most of it. The Dolphins might have lucked into one legitimate starting cornerback.

Other options include Kelvin Joseph and Justin Bethel.

The Dolphins had a plan at safety. They traded for Jalen Ramsey to solidify the back end. Alas, Ramsey suffered a serious knee injury and will start the season on IR. The Dolphins hope he’ll be back on the field by December.

Ramsey would have given the Dolphins a trustworthy centerfielder. As is, they’ll go with 2021 second-round pick Jevon Holland at free safety. Holland gets put wherever the Dolphins need him. He did a decent job last year and should thrive in the new defense.

Holland will pair with either 2020 third-round pick Brandon Jones or free-agent pickup DeShon Elliott. Elliott didn’t impress me in Detroit. Jones is a natural blitzer whose skills may have been a better fit under the prior defensive regime.

I’m guessing new defensive coordinator Vic Fangio will find himself in a tough spot without Ramsey.

Kicker Jason Sanders:

2020: All-Pro. Excellent season.

2021: Sucked.

2022: Even worse!

2023: Profit?

Sanders signed a huge (for a kicker) deal after 2020, but this is the final year with guaranteed money.

New punter Jake Bailey did an awful job in New England over the past two seasons. Normally, I would hold that against a player, but LOL Patriots.

The Dolphins have a ton of good return men. Braxton Berrios leads the bunch. They should be fine here.

The Dolphins are facing a very tough schedule. Even if things break well for them with Tua’s health, they still might not get to ten wins simply due to strong opposition. In 2021, the Dolphins went 9-8 despite finishing 25^th in DVOA. Last year, they went 9-8 and finished 8^th in DVOA.

I have difficulty believing that Tua can play 17 games. He’s missed 28% of Miami’s games over his career (not counting playoffs). Salary cap issues (and ownership stupidity) have left the roster fairly thin in terms of depth. This is a scary offense when healthy. It’s tough to trust them over a full season. 9-8.

New England Patriots:

2022 Record: 8-9

Projections:

Scouting Wins: 7.58

DVOA Wins: 8.1

FPI Wins: 7.8

Market Wins: 7.19

Implied Pythag: 48.58%

On some level, the Patriots’ offense deserves a mulligan for 2022 due to incompetent coaching. There have been changes, but not at the top. Bill Belichick remains. Is he washed? Maybe. He’s always kept a tightly knit group around him. Matt Patricia was awful, but it’s unclear how much the Patriots will gain from his absence.

The real question is can quarterback 2021 first-round pick Mac Jones bounce back?

2021: 3,801 yards, 22 TD, 13 INT, 6.5 NY/P, 6.1% DVOA, 605 DYAR

2022: 2,997 yards, 14 TD, 11 INT, 5.8 NY/P, -10.1% DVOA, 31 DYAR (in 14 games)

Ew. 2021 was the best-case scenario. Jones had quality support from his offensive staff. The scheme fit his strengths. Last year was… a disaster. This year, it’s Bill O’Brien in charge. The Patriots have had success with BOB leading the offense. However, that was with Tom Brady at quarterback. I am not sure that past results will be predictive here.

It’s funny, though. Wide receiver DeVante Parker thrived under the old regime:

2022: 31 receptions, 539 yards, +5.0 +/-, 40.1% DVOA, 196 DYAR (in 13 games)

Parker won contested balls at an unsustainable level. Still, it was enough to please the Patriots, who gave him a new three-year deal for $10.8M (9.1 guaranteed).

Kendick Bourne was awesome in limited usage in 2021:

2021: 55 receptions, 800 yards, +7.0 +/-, 30.1% DVOA, 228 DYAR

2021: 12 carries, 125 yards, 140.2% DVOA, 90 DYAR

That’s what happens when a gadget player finds amazing success. It did not continue into 2022:

2022: 35 receptions, 434 yards, +3.5 +/-, -2.4% DVOA, 38 DYAR (in 16 games)

Bourne is a decent receiver in small doses. I expect him to bounce back from his 2022 performance. 2021 is long gone, though.

(Editor’s note: He did most of his damage from the slot in 2021.)

Premium free-agent pickup Juju Smith-Schuster will take over in the slot:

2022: 78 receptions, 933 yards, +6.6 +/-, 10.6R DVOA, 185 DYAR (in 16 games)

It will be difficult for Juju to maintain that level of efficiency without the help of Patrick Mahomes.

2022 second-round pick Tyquan Thornton will start the season on injured reserve due to a shoulder injury. He had a rough rookie season as well (-27.5% DVOA, -53 DYAR). If healthy, Thornton is a true speedster capable of stretching a defense. It’s less clear if he’s capable of separating from NFL coverage or catching the darn ball.

Rookie sixth-round pick Kayshon Boutte and rookie sixth-round pick Demario Douglas will provide depth:

Kayshon Boutte: I feel like I have some explaining to do here. Boutte has two separate profiles. A pre-injury phenom, and a post-injury… mediocrity.

Right now, Boutte looks like a shell of the player he used to be. His athletic profile is dreadful. He’s had multiple surgeries on his right ankle. But back in 2020 and early 2021, he was developing into a potential monster.

Boutte is another slot specialist. Pre-injury, Boutte had exceptional instincts, finding holes in the zone.

Boutte had 45 receptions for 735 yards in 2020. He scored nine touchdowns in six games in 2021. Then he hurt his ankle. In 2022, he scored two touchdowns in 11 games.

Touchdowns are a volatile stat. Pre-injury, Boutte averaged 15.3 yards-per-catch. Post-injury, that dropped to 11.2. There was also an issue with drops, with seven in 2022.

I have no idea whether or not Boutte will ever return to his pre-injury form. He used to be a player trending towards a 1^st or 2^nd round selection. Now? I wouldn’t touch the 2022 version until late day three. I feel bad for him.

Douglas is an undersized speedster. I didn’t list him among my top 300 prospects, as I don’t have faith in his hands. Dude muffed six punts in college. Followed that up in practice.

#1TE Hunter Henry followed up an awesome 2021 performance with a solid season:

2021: 50 receptions, 603 yards, +5.2 +/-, 25.8% DVOA, 174 DYA

2022: 41 receptions, 509 yards, +1.3 +/-, 10.4% DVOA, 67 DYAR

Henry might benefit from the new offensive scheme. Matt Patricia did not make life easy for him.

As the Patriots are wont to do, they’ve loaded up on tight ends, signing Mike Gesicki away from Miami:

2022: 32 receptions, 362 yards, -0.3 +/-, 0.4% DVOA, 27 DYAR

Gesicki will provide depth. His presence makes it much easier for the Patriots to use 2TE sets (also known as 12 personnel, which refers to 1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR).

Left tackle Trent Brown sucked last season. He finished outside of the top 32 in my rankings. The Patriots signed a budget left tackle* and got a budget performance.

(*Brown played right tackle in 2021.)

2022 first-round pick left guard Cole Strange finished just outside the top 25 of my positional rankings. I’ll cut him some slack, as it was a large jump in competition for the Chattanooga grad. He’ll need to improve this year, though.

Center David Andrews is working on mastering the art of bending without breaking. Your mileage may vary as to how you feel about centers who surrender pressure but stay in front of their man. He did not finish in my top 20 despite finishing second in ESPN’s pass-block win rate. Truth be told, I am not a fan of their methodology.

2020 sixth-round pick right guard Michael Onwenu finished seventh in my rankings. He’s been solid.

Free-agent pickup right tackle Riley Reiff finished 12^th in my rankings. He suffered a knee injury late this preseason. I’m not sure how serious it is. If he can’t go, free-agent pickup Calvin Anderson looks like the next man up. Anderson is great tackle insurance at a reasonable price, but I’m sure the Patriots would not be happy if he had to start.

The Patriots added a fair amount of offensive line depth via the draft. First there was the selection of Jake Andrews early in the fourth round. Sidy Sow followed later in the round. Finally, they snagged Atonio Mafi in the fifth round. Some notes:

1. I didn’t have any of these players with anything above a round seven grade.

2. Atonio Mafi is large.

3. Sidy Sow is a great athlete. He’s Canadian. He doesn’t seem to have good blocking instincts. His film suggests he will not be able to block at an NFL-level.

4. Jake Andrews will need some time to adjust to the NFL. It’s a large jump from Troy.

In 2021 the Patriots’ defense finished 4^th in the DVOA rankings. They finished 3^rd last season, playing at roughly the same level. Edge-rusher Matthew Judon (15.5 sacks, 67 hits+hurries) has become a star. He’ll start across from 2020 second-round pick Josh Uche (11.5 sacks, 34 hits+hurries) in the base 3-4.

2020 third-round pick Anfernee Jennings (1.5 sacks, 10 hits+hurries) will provide depth.

I’m not sure what to make of rookie third-round pick Marte Mapu. He didn’t make my top 300 prospects list. He’s a linebacker/safety hybrid. Mapu did nice work in the Big Sky. I don’t know if he has the power to play linebacker or speed to play safety in the NFL. I’m sure Belichick has a plan for him. I just have no clue what it is.

I should note that the Patriots’ defense remains rather old-school. Get pressure from a 4-man rush. Have linebackers that can shut down the run at the second level. Mapu was a remarkable selection in this context.

The defensive line of Lawrence Guy, Deatrich Wise, and Davon Godchaux returns. Wise has some pass-rush chops (7.5 sacks, 42 hits+hurries). Guy and Godchaux are a pair of nose tackles squashed next to each other.

2021 second-round pick Christian Barmore (2.5 sacks, 20 hits+hurries), Daniel Ekuale, and rookie second-round pick Keion White will provide depth:

Keion White: Another DE/DT hybrid. White had a solid combine (the 40 was from his pro day). Had 7.5 sacks last season at Georgia Tech. White fits George Young’s “planet theory.” His mix of size, strength, and athleticism is rare.

White’s profile presents a few concerns. The first is that he’s still picking up the finer points of playing along the defensive line. His film showed a lot of mistakes that should get cleaned up with more coaching and reps. The bigger issue is that he turned 24 in January and his upside is potentially limited.

I’m torn here. On one hand, I was pretty much raised as a football fan on the “planet theory” of winning in the trenches. On the other hand, I don’t know how impressed I should be by an over-aged player who didn’t really dominate in college. My sense is that White is worth a mid-to-late second-round pick. I just worry that he looks the part better than he plays it.

(Editor note: Defensive end Trey Flowers might rejoin the lineup after he comes off of the PUP list. He injured his foot last season. Flowers has only managed to appear in 18 games over the past three seasons. I’m not sure how much he has left in the tank.)

Inside linebackers Ja’Whaun Bentley and Jahlani Tavai return as well. Bentley provides a solid mix of size, speed, and football intelligence. His numbers aren’t necessarily anything special. His value comes from the big plays that didn’t happen because he was where he needed to be to prevent them.

Tavai is just a guy. He’ll split time with Mack Wilson when the Patriots feel they need a bit more speed. Wilson lacks the power to be an every-down linebacker. He was used mostly on special teams.

Raekwon McMillan will provide depth once he comes off injured reserve. He’s currently recovering from an Achilles injury.

I need to go off on a slight tangent here. I don’t mind that the Patriots have three cornerbacks named Jones. I am constantly irritated that the league allowed them to give Jonathan Jones 31 and 2022 fourth-round pick Jack Jones 13. 2022 third-round pick Marcus Jones wears 25. Merry Christmas.

Jonathan Jones did an excellent job last season. He was able to play outside or in the slot.

Marcus and Jack are both still picking up the finer points of the defensive scheme. Jack has had some legal issues. He might be able to resolve them with a plea bargain, but would still be facing a possible suspension from the league. He was also suspended by the Patriots late last season.

As for Marcus, he had two interceptions last season (so did Jack) and should be more familiar with his role this year.

The Jones gang has been joined by rookie first-round pick Christian Gonzalez:

Christian Gonzalez: Sub-4.4 speed at over six feet is exactly what teams are looking for. Looked smooth on film. Has the power to jam receivers with the recovery speed needed if things go wrong. Gonzalez has shown he can work outside or in the slot. I expect he’ll be used outside in the NFL.

Gonzalez pulled in four interceptions last season. He’s learned how to play clean, with only three DPI flags in his last 24 games. He’s solid in run support. Don’t look for him to make a big hit. Gonzalez prefers to wrap his man up with form tackling.

Gonzalez is also a special teams ace, with experience blocking kicks as well as jamming on punt returns. If I was looking for a reason that Gonzalez would fail, it’s a lack of anticipation in man coverage. In college, he played fairly conservatively, generally waiting for the receiver to make his move and trusting that his athleticism would allow him to react in time. In the NFL, he’ll need to improve in this area lest he get repeatedly burned on timing routes.

I want to note that his zone coverage skills were elite. He did a great job of moving his feet while maintaining focus on the receivers around his zone and the quarterback. I expect that he’s not the cornerback opposing quarterbacks are going to want to challenge. Over the past two seasons, Gonzalez produced -14.7 EPA on 80 targets (-0.18 EPA-per-target).

I see Gonzalez as a future elite #1CB. I don’t expect him to go in the top five, so whoever gets him will be getting a nice value pickup at a premium position. (Editor’s note: Gonzalez won’t turn 21 until June. He’s managed to become an elite player at a very young age.)

The Patriots managed to land Gonzalez with the #17 pick, after trading back and screwing the Jets in the process. Grrrrrr….

Jalen Mills will be in the mix as well, although it’s not obvious if he’ll be used more often at cornerback or at safety.

The Patriots have a decent number of options at safety. In addition to Mills they have Jabrill Peppers, 2020 second-round pick Kyle Dugger, and Adrian Phillips. The Patriots like to keep opponents guessing, so they value versatility.

Dugger can play as a box safety, but don’t sleep on his coverage skills. The dude had a pair of pick–sixes last season.

Phillips is a seasoned veteran. He played more of a strong safety role last season. He might transition to playing deeper this year.

Peppers is the proverbial “thumper” who is best playing close to the line of scrimmage.

Rookie sixth-round pick Ameer Speed and Myles Bryant will provide defensive backfield depth. Speed is a great athlete. He failed to impress at Michigan State and might have to work his way up via special teams. Bryant is pretty good in zone coverage. His man skills need some work. He might be best served as the rare slot zone specialist.

The Patriots’ special teams will look different this year. Rookie fourth-round pick Chad Ryland is the new kicker. Rookie sixth-round pick Bryce Baringer will take over at punter. I liked both selections.

Marcus Jones will handle the return duties. He’s pretty good back there. The Patriots also have excellent coverage units, as that’s something they prioritize.

Last season the Patriots’ special teams were a disaster. They should return to being a strength this year.

The Patriots might end up playing the toughest schedule in the NFL. That’s a far cry from how it used to be. I think they’ll do a respectable job against it. The defense looks stout. They present a puzzle that opponents struggle to solve.

Offensively, I am expecting a bounce back year from quarterback Mac Jones. Losing Matt Patricia should pay huge dividends. Jones should be able to spread the ball around given the depth of the receiver corps (tight ends included).

Ultimately, I still have some faith in Belichick. A strong defense + solid special teams + a mediocre offense should be enough for a decent record. 8-9.

New York Jets:

2022 Record: 7-10

Projections:

Scouting Wins: 8.55

DVOA Wins: 9.8

FPI Wins: 9.3

Market Wins: 9.59

Implied Pythag: 61.57%

Sigh. We have to start with quarterback Aaron Rodgers:

2020: 4,299 yards, 48 TD, 5 INT, 7.6 NY/P, 33.7% DVOA, 1,673 DYAR

2021: 4,115 yards, 37 TD, 4 INT, 7.0 NY/P, 27.8% DVOA, 1,531 DYAR (in 16 games)

Very impressive stuff.

2022: 3,695 yards, 26 TD, 12 INT, 6.0 NY/P, 0.3% DVOA, 436 DYAR

Hmm…

The Packers had traded away star wide receiver Davante Adams. Rodgers struggled to find the magic. Rodgers wanted out. The Packers wanted to move on. The Jets wanted a star quarterback.

I didn’t want Rodgers, though. He’ll turn 40 in December. Is he an upgrade over 2021 first-round pick quarterback Zach Wilson? Oh yes. Do I think he’ll be able to boost the Jets’ offense? Absolutely. But at what cost? The trade was a little complicated. They swapped first-round picks, which moved the Jets from 13^th to 15^th. The Jets gave up the 42^nd pick and what will likely be their first-round pick in 2024.

Swapping picks caused the Jets to miss out on the last of the elite offensive tackle prospects. More on this later.

What’s done is done. Rodgers is going to have to adjust his style of play to take the most advantage of his new receiver corps. In short, he’ll need to get used to working over the middle.

Jets quarterbacks produced -48 DYAR last season. In that context, 2022 first-round pick Garrett Wilson had a monster rookie campaign:

2022: 83 receptions, 1,103 yards, -7.3 +/-, -7.2% DVOA, 64 DYAR

Don’t sweat the -7.3 +/-. That’s mostly the fault of Zach Wilson and Joe Flacco putting Garrett Wilson in position to fail. Wilson deservedly earned offensive rookie of the year. He should take a massive second-year leap due to the presence of Rodgers.

After Wilson, the Jets’ receiver corps will look different. Premium free-agent pickup Allen Lazard will provide Rodgers with a familiar face:

2020: 33 receptions, 451 yards, +2.7 +/-, 28.3% DVOA, 153 DYAR (in 10 games)

2021: 40 receptions, 513 yards, +3.2 +/-, 24.8% DVOA, 187 DYAR (in 15 games)

2022: 60 receptions, 788 yards, +0.5 +/-, 7.0% DVOA, 160 DYAR (in 15 games)

Lazard was highly efficient during Rodgers’ back-to-back MVP runs. Lazard was able to work against #2 cornerbacks while defenses focused on stopping Adams. His production suffered without Adams in the fold. He’ll be able to enjoy the #2 role in New York, as defenses will have to focus on Wilson.

Free-agent pickup Mecole Hardman wants to be the #3WR. He had offseason “core” surgery to deal with an injury that sidelined him after eight games. He was back on the field for the Jets this preseason.

I have to say that despite having decent numbers with the Chiefs, he never really impressed Andy Reid:

2020-2022: 125 receptions, 1550 yards, +3.5 +/-, 9.2% DVOA, 307 DYAR (in 41 games)

For most third receivers, those would be decent numbers. However, Hardman was playing with Patrick Mahomes. When we add that context, it’s fair to see why the Chiefs viewed him as a disappointment and did not extend his contract.

Hardman does not appear to have locked up the #3WR job. Perhaps that’s due to Rodgers having another option in mind.

Free-agent pickup Randall Cobb provides Rodgers with another trusted target:

2021: 28 receptions, 375 yards, +3.3 +/-, 23.5% DVOA, 117 DYAR (in 12 games)

2022: 34 receptions, 417 yards, +1.3 +/-, -0.9% DVOA, 47 DYAR (in 13 games)

Cobb turned 33 in August. His best days are most likely behind him.

Irvin Charles will provide depth.

#1TE Tyler Conklin did his best in tough circumstances last season:

2022: 58 receptions, 552 yards, -1.1 +/-, -16.3% DVOA, -48 DYAR

Conklin produced -44 DYAR in his final three seasons in Minnesota. I am still in awe that his agent negotiated $10 in guaranteed money.

#2TE C.J. Uzomah is fairly well-paid too. He did fine work when given the opportunity:

2022: 21 receptions, 232 yards, +2.1 +/-, 16.315 DVOA, 41 DYAR (in 15 games)

Uzomah is an elite blocker as well. I wonder if this is a case where Conklin looks the part. The numbers (and the film) say Uzomah should be the top guy.

2022 third-round pick Jeremy Ruckert played sparingly due to a foot injury. He’s a solid blocker as well.

2022 second-round pick Breece Hall was having an awesome rookie campaign before a knee injury ended his season:

2022: 111 squid, 681 yards, 17.9% DVOA, 130 DYAR (in seven games)

The Jets might work Hall back slowly to make sure his knee is 100%.

Free-agent pickup Dalvin Cook will shoulder some of the load:

2019: 313 squid, 1,654 yards, 13.3% DVOA, 327 DYAR (in 14 games)

2020: 366 squid, 1,918 yards, 14.2% DVOA, 393 DYAR (in 14 games)

2021: 298 squid, 1,383 yards, -8.9% DVOA, 7 DYAR (in 13 games)

2022: 320 squid, 1,468 yards, -10.0% DVOA, 3 DYAR

Yes, the Jets gave $7M to a 28-year-old replacement-level running back. Was Cook a victim of context? Maybe. The Vikings’ offensive line didn’t do a great job of preventing disruption. But to my eyes, Cook looked washed. The explosion was gone. I hope I’m wrong.

2021 fourth-round pick Michael Carter and rookie fifth-round pick Israel Abanikanda will provide depth:

Israel Abanikanda: Backed up a monster season (258 squid, 1,577 yards-from-scrimmage, 21 TD, 19 EPA) with a strong combine. Showed elite athleticism on film, accelerating away from defenders.

Israel showed good technique running a highly limited route tree. For now, it’s mostly screens and dump offs. His pass protection technique will need quite a bit of work. The low center of gravity and power are there. He’ll just need reps and coaching to develop better instincts after the snap.

Israel returned a kickoff for a touchdown in 2021. He should be able to provide some value on special teams in the NFL.

One thing I liked about Israel on film is his aggression attacking the line of scrimmage even when a hole hadn’t clearly developed. He trusted his ability to break through arm tackles, with good results. He’s no one’s idea of a patient runner.

I liked much of what I saw from Israel. For now, he can’t add much in the passing game, but the potential is there. Early day-three value.

Injuries wrecked the Jets’ offensive line in 2022. Injuries limited left tackle Duane Brown to 12 games in 2022. Brown had offseason shoulder surgery. He did a decent job when healthy.

Left guard Laken Tomlinson appeared in all 17 games. His blocking was mediocre, but at least he only was flagged once all season.

Center Connor McGovern also appeared in all 17 games. He was also mediocre. Rookie second-round pick Joe Tippmann gives the Jets another option if McGovern doesn’t turn it around:

Joe Tippmann: A hamstring injury kept him from working out at the combine. He did the bench press on his pro day.

On tape, Tippmann flashed both raw power and athleticism. He was capable of embarrassing opposing defenders. However, there was a boom-bust aspect to his play. He drew more than his fair share of holding flags. Additionally, his height makes it tough for him win leverage battles.

One concern is that he’s had surgery on both shoulders. Tippmann might play harder than his body is built for. Another is that he might not be able to stick at center and would have to move to guard. There, his height might be less of a concern.

If Tippmann gets a clean bill of health, he’s a prospect with huge upside. He checks off the boxes for NFL-level power and athleticism. Solid second-round value (pending clean medicals).

2021 first-round pick right guard Alijah Vera-Tucker did a fantastic job in pass protection. Alas, he was only available for seven games before a triceps injury ended his season. The Jets would love a full season from him. He’s been slowed by an ankle injury this preseason. I expect him to be available week one.

2020 first-round pick Mekhi Becton had an awesome rookie season. He looked potentially dominant, particularly in the running game. Unfortunately, injuries have caused him to miss the Jets’ last 33 games. They declined his fifth-year option. He’ll start at right tackle. Hopefully, he can recapture the rookie magic.

Free-agent pickup Billy Turner will provide depth.

The Jets’ defense finished fifth in DVOA last season. It starts with a tough defensive line. Defensive end Carl Lawson (eight sacks, 42 hits+hurries) will start across from John Franklin-Myers (five sacks, 36 hits+hurries). 2022 first-round pick Jermaine Johnson (2.5 sacks, 11 hits+hurries), 2022 fourth-round pick Michael Clemons (2.5 sacks, 10 hits+hurries), and rookie first-round pick Will McDonald IV will provide depth:

Will McDonald IV: In 2020 & 2021 McDonald had 22 sacks in 25 games (27.5 tackles for a loss). Last season he had five sacks and 7.5 tackles for a loss in 12 games. It was a pretty big regression. I’m going to cut him some slack, as offenses keyed their protection around stopping him. He generally faced multiple blockers, which is the ultimate sign of respect.

McDonald is an elite athlete who is going to stress offensive tackles with his speed and bend around the edge. He didn’t have the size or play strength to hold the point against the run in college. It’s unlikely that he’ll develop that ability in the NFL. Most likely, we’re looking at a pass-rush specialist.

McDonald has the athleticism to drop back in coverage. While that’s not why you’d draft him, it is nice to strand a blocker while covering a man.

McDonald is very good at the one thing defenses want most: Disruption. I’d expect him to come off the board in the 30’s, which is roughly ten spots ahead of where I’d take him.

As it turns out, McDonald was selected 15^th overall. From my draft snippets:

15. New York Jets: Edge Will McDonald IV: Sigh. I would have expected the Jets to have a better backup plan if the top four offensive tackles were off the board. McDonald was 33^rd on the consensus big board. I liked McDonald as a prospect, but I wouldn’t have considered taking him this high. This was an enormous reach, and it looked like a panic move from a team that wasn’t prepared for this scenario.

I can only hope McDonald lives up to his draft status.

Finally, there is 2020 undrafted free-agent Bryce Huff. Huff had four sacks over his first two seasons. He built on that with 3.5 last year. The Jets rewarded him with a new deal.

If nothing else, the Jets should have plenty of depth here. Note: Franklin-Myers can line up at tackle as well and provide an inside pass-rush. Also, Lawson might not have been 100% last season and might have more explosiveness this year.

Speaking of inside pass-rushers, star defensive tackle Quinnen Williams (12 sacks, 40 hits+hurries) did work for the Jets last season. He’ll line up next to free-agent pickup Al Woods, with Solomon Thomas and Quinton Jefferson providing depth. I should note that on the defensive line, only Thomas is a plus run defender. The Jets’ defensive line is primarily focused on pressuring opposing quarterbacks.

Linebackers C.J. Mosley and Quincey Williams will pair up in the base 4-2-5. They are a very good pairing. Both are trustworthy attacking the line of scrimmage or in coverage. The question is who’s #3?

2021 fifth-round pick Jamien Sherwood hasn’t shown us much. Rookie sixth-round pick Zaire Barnes is a good athlete. It’s a bit much to ask him to handle NFL linebacker responsibilities, as he’s making the jump from Western Michigan. He might provide some value in coverage while he develops.

Chazz Surratt will provide depth. We might see someone rise from the practice squad to end up contributing here.

As good as Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson were, there is no question cornerback Sauce Gardner was the Jets’ best rookie in 2022. Sauce earned defensive rookie of the year. He was awesome.

2022 free-agent pickup D.J. Reed was no slouch himself. He did a fine job in coverage. The Jets have a quality pair of starting cornerbacks.

2021 fifth-round pick Michael Carter did a solid job at nickelback.

2020 fifth-round pick Bryce Hall will provide depth.

Strong safety Jordan Whitehead was frustrating (hands of stone), but he ended up with very good numbers overall. I suppose safeties have a lot of job responsibilities, so they can’t purely focus on spending time with a JUGS machine.

There’s some question who will start across from Whitehead. Free-agent pickup Adrian Amos is one option. Tony Adams is another. Chuck Clark was supposed to be the guy, but he’s on injured reserve with a torn ACL. There’s 2020 third-round pick Ashtyn Davis. Davis is probably the best athlete, but he hasn’t made much of an impact. Adams is the most familiar with the system. Amos was signed for depth. If he wins the job, it’s not a great sign for Adams or Davis. Or the Jets.

Kicker Greg Zuerlein is fine. New punter Thomas Morstead should be solid. Mecole Hardman or undrafted college free-agent Xavier Gipson will take over the return responsibilities. Gipson has speed and returned four punts for touchdowns at Stephen F. Austin.

The real problem for the Jets was that their coverage units were terrible. They have acknowledged this and have made a few moves to fix the issue. We’ll have to wait and see if that’s enough.

Some depth issues aside, the Jets have put together a deep roster. Their 2022 draft will pay dividends for years. Adding Rodgers gives them a real quarterback for the first time since… you know what, don’t answer that.

There is real hope that the Jets can reach the playoffs for the first time since 2010. Heck, if things go really well, the Jets might host their first playoff game since 2002.

I’m not that optimistic. I don’t love the fact that Aaron Rodgers is trying to put the gang back together. Also, Rodgers is old. His skills should fade every year. It’s hard to know how much he has left in the tank. I have faith in the defense. The Jets should be respectable this year. But are they elite? No. 9-8.

AFC Playoff Standings:

1. Kansas City Chiefs: 12-5

2. Buffalo Bills: 11-6

3. Cincinnati Bengals: 11-6

4. Jacksonville Jaguars: 10-7

5. Baltimore Ravens: 11-6

6. Los Angeles Chargers: 10-7

7. New York Jets: 9-8

AFC Wildcard Round:

Baltimore Ravens @ Jacksonville Jaguars

No Saturday 4:30 kickoffs here! This is a premium wildcard game. I know I’m back on my bullshit giving the Ravens 11 wins. I don’t care. I still believe in Lamar Jackson. The Ravens head into Jacksonville and come out on top. Ravens 24, Jaguars 20.

Los Angeles Chargers @ Cincinnati Bengals

Memories of the coldest NFL game I can remember, the AFC Championship, The Freezer Bowl! Cincinnati wins this one too. Bengals 31, Chargers 28.

New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills

The Jets season starts against the Bills. It ends against them too. Bills 20, Jets 10.

AFC Divisional Round:

Cincinnati Bengals @ Buffalo Bills

Revenge! This time it’s Buffalo who ends Cincinnati’s season. Bills 33, Bengals 28.

Baltimore Ravens @ Kansas City Chiefs

The Ravens drive to reach their first AFC Championship game in the Lamar Jackson era falls short. Chiefs 24, Ravens 21.

AFC Championship Game:

Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs

Yes, I am predicting the Chiefs host their sixth-straight AFC Championship game. Mahomes is special. Another great game between these two AFC titans. Buffalo can’t get over the hump. Chiefs 38, Bills 34.

Super Bowl LVIII @ Allegiant Stadium in Paradise, Nevada

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Kansas City Chiefs

A Super Bowl Rematch. The Chiefs and Eagles remain the class of their respective conferences. This time the Eagles get the job done in the second half. Eagles 27, Chiefs 24

Enjoy the season folks!

2023 NFL Preview: AFC North

September 6, 2023

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AFC North:

Cincinnati Bengals: 11-6

Baltimore Ravens: 11-6

Cleveland Browns: 9-8

Pittsburgh Steelers: 9-8

Baltimore Ravens:

2022 Record: 10-7

Projections:

Scouting Wins: 11.48

DVOA Wins: 9.7

FPI Wins: 9.55

Market Wins: 10.04

Implied Pythag: 58.39%

“You’s a superstar, boy, why you still up in the hood?” -Ludacris

I’ve been high on the Ravens pretty much every year. Last season I loved their draft. If I had any major issue with them, it’s that I felt they undervalued the importance of providing quarterback Lamar Jackson with a competent receiver corps. Welp! At least I was right about that. Let’s break down the Ravens’ passing game by number of targets:

1. Tight end Mark Andrews, 113 targets:

2022: 73 receptions, 847 yards, +2.4 +/-, 5.4% DVOA, 94 DYAR (in 15 games)

Andrews was effectively the Ravens’ slot receiver. It’s not a bad stat line until you realize what he accomplished in 2021:

2021: 107 receptions, 1,361 yards, +8.3 +/-, 24.6% DVOA, 310 DYAR

Oof!

(Update: It’s not clear what the issue is, but Andrews has been missing practice time.)

2. Wide receiver Demarcus Robinson, 75 targets:

2022: 48 receptions, 458 yards, -3.2 +/-, -18.2% DVOA, -32 DYAR

It’s bad when your most-targeted receiver is below replacement-level. Before the season I wrote:

“Robinson had a knack for getting in Andy Reid’s doghouse. I have very low expectations for him in Baltimore.”

He’s now in Los Angeles. Perhaps Sean McVay can fix him.

3. 2022 fourth-round pick tight end Isaiah Likely, 60 targets:

2022: 36 receptions, 373 yards, -3.6 +/-, -15.6% DVOA, -32 DYAR (in 16 games)

For those of you keeping score at home, two of the Ravens’ most-targeted receivers were tight ends, and two of them were below replacement-level. Likely was also effectively used as a slot receiver.

4. 2020 third-round pick wide receiver Devin Duvernay, 49 targets:

2022: 37 receptions, 407 yards,, +4.5 +/-, 14.4% DVOA, 100 DYAR (in 14 games)

Duvernay isn’t a traditional receiver. He made the All-Pro team in 2021 as a punt return specialist. He really is an elite return-man. He also ran the ball 12 times for 84 yards (58.5% DVOA, 76 DYAR). Before last season, Duvernay had -9 DYAR receiving. In short, he’s a great change of pace.

The Ravens had three other players with over twenty targets:

5. 2021 first-round pick Rashod Bateman, 28 targets:

2022: 15 receptions, 285 yards, -3.0 +/-, -4.9% DVOA, 16 DYAR (in six games)

Bateman was slowed by injuries. He eventually had Lisfranc surgery. He had a cortisone shot in his foot earlier this preseason. I am hoping he can finally play a full season for the Ravens.

6. Running back Kenyan Drake, 26 targets:

Drake is now in Indianapolis. He had 17 receptions for 89 yards (-13.6% DVOA, 0 DYAR).

7. Tight end Josh Oliver, 25 targets:

Oliver was a blocking tight end. He had 14 receptions for 149 yards (-15.3% DVOA, -14 DYAR). As a general rule, blocking tight ends only get targeted when they have been left wide open or the quarterback needs a release valve.

Now that I’ve presented the context, here is how quarterback Lamar Alexander performed last season:

2022: 2,242 yards, 17 TD, 7 INT, 6.0 NY/P, 5.5% DVOA, 371 DYAR (in 12 games)

He also ran the ball 112 times for 764 yards (27.8% DVOA, 221 DYAR).

The Ravens played hardball with Lamar Jackson in contract negotiations, hitting him with the non-exclusive franchise tag. That meant that other teams could try and sign Jackson, although the Ravens could either match or get two first-round picks as compensation. There was… suspiciously little interest from the rest of the NFL.

This story has a happy ending. Jackson eventually ended up re-signing with the Ravens for $135M guaranteed. The Ravens used their first-round pick on wide receiver Zay Flowers:

Zay Flowers: Elite speed. I’m a little leery that he didn’t do the agility tests, especially given his size. On film, he made clean cuts and I would have expected him to produce good numbers at the combine or on his pro day. With sub-30 inch arms, Flowers presents a smaller-than-optimal catch radius.

In 2021, Boston College had Flowers working fairly deep, with an ADOT of 15.0 yards. He was targeted 85 times for 45 receptions, 751 yards, and five touchdowns. Last season, his ADOT dropped to 10.1 as he was targeted 126 times for 78 receptions, 1,078 yards, and 12 touchdowns.

He’s shown nice explosiveness off of the line, beating press coverage with a mix of speed, power, and technique. If given a free release, he can threaten the cornerback deep or cut and work back towards the quarterback. He’s shown a nice ability to win contested catches by bodying the cornerback and limiting their angle to the ball. It would be nice if he showed such physicality in his blocking for the running game, but alas, that was not the case.

In 2020, Flowers had an issue with drops (12 drops). He cleaned that up, with four each of the past two seasons. It’s something teams will want to be wary of given the slightly larger NFL football.

Flowers is viewed primarily as a slot option, so all of my caveats about the slot being a limited resource apply here. Flowers impressed me with his ability to adjust to deep balls in flight. Rescuing off-target balls is the kind of thing that can earn a quarterback’s trust. I view Flowers as a fine option late on day one.

The Ravens also signed Odell Beckham Jr. The last time we saw of OBJ was in the Super Bowl. He injured his knee and missed the 2022 season.

OBJ hasn’t put up a positive DVOA since 2018. I am curious to see if he’ll be able to recapture his past glory in Baltimore. A starting wide receiver trio of Bateman, Flowers, and OBJ sounds good on paper. We’ll see if it works in practice.

Mark Andrews returns as TE1. 2022 fourth-round picks Isaiah Likely and Charlie Kolar will provide depth.

2020 second-round pick J.K. Dobbins came back from a torn ACL that cost him his 2021 season:

2022: 100 squid, 562 yards, 29.6% DVOA, 178 DYAR (in eight games)

With defenses forced to account for Jackson, Dobbins has found space to work in. Dobbins was effective in his rookie season, as well (19.1% DVOA, 187 DYAR)

Gus Edwards also missed 2021 with an ACL tear. He’s a fine backup:

2022: 89 squid, 433 yards, 10.6%, 78 DYAR (in nine games)

Left tackle Ronnie Stanley cracked my top-10 due to consistent clean play, but he’s still far removed from his 2019 All-Pro level. He missed six games last season due to ankle issues. He had surgery on the ankle in 2021. The Ravens hope he’ll be 100% in 2023.

It would appear the Ravens will start rookie sixth-round pick Malaesala Aumavae-Laulu at left guard. Laulu has S-tier size and length. I did not think he had the technique or natural skills to merit drafting, let alone starting. The Ravens will be putting a lot of pressure on their coaches to get Laulu ready to handle NFL defensive linemen.

2022 first-round pick Tyler Linderbaum had an… acceptable rookie campaign. We knew coming into the league that he was an undersized elite athlete. That played out as larger nose tackles bullied him. He’s bulked up a bit. The Ravens signed Sam Mustipher as an insurance policy.

Right guard Kevin Zeitler was excellent, finishing third in my rankings.

Right tackle Morgan Moses was better than his numbers would suggest. He was often the victim of Jackson holding the ball too long. Morgan could only hold his block so long before either giving up pressure or getting flagged. If Jackson can get the ball out on time this year, Morgan’s numbers will improve drastically.

2021 third-round pick Ben Cleveland will provide depth inside. 2022 fourth-round pick Daniel Faalele will provide depth outside.

The addition of linebacker Roquan Smith boosted the Ravens’ defense in numerous ways. Patrick Queen was able to attack the line of scrimmage more often (five sacks, 25 hits+hurries). Smith averaged over ten tackles a game with the Ravens. It’s an excellent pairing,

2020 third-round pick Malik Harrison and rookie third-round pick Trenton Simpson will provide depth:

Trenton Simpson: Elite athlete. Simpson played outside in 2020 and 2021, moving inside in 2022. Accumulated 165 tackles and 13 sacks in his 33 game collegiate career. Simpson is a highly versatile player who can play in coverage or rush the passer.

Simpson has elite range. That can pay off in coverage, against the run, or even as a spy tracking an opposing quarterback. One thing I’ll note is that Simpson looked better playing outside than inside. He’s still learning how to read plays and often found himself out of position or swallowed up by blockers. He was much better when he had a clear line of sight and could fly to the spot.

One concern is that while Simpson has many skills, he hasn’t mastered any of them. He has the talent to work as a LB/S hybrid but will need plenty of reps to reach his potential. Alternatively, he might be able to work as a Mike linebacker who attacks the line of scrimmage. In that case, he’d likely need to bulk up. Whatever the case may be, it will take time for his mental speed to catch up to his physical speed.

Simpson is a player who gives his defensive coach a number of options. That versatility is much appreciated when you’re trying to get your best 11 players on the field. I love his athleticism. I’m just a bit unsure of his role. Early second-round value.

I very much liked the Simpson selection.

That’s the off-ball linebacker corps. What about the rest of the defense? The Ravens have to replace defensive end Calais Campbell (5.5 sacks, 27 hits+hurries), and edge-rushers Justin Houston (9.5 sacks, 28 hits+hurries), and Jason Pierre-Paul (three sacks, 12 hits+hurries).

2020 third-round pick defensive tackle Justin Madubuike had 5.5 sacks of his own (21 hits+hurries). He’ll line up alongside nose tackle Michael Pierce. Pierce missed almost all of last season with a torn biceps. 2022 third-round pick Travis Jones will rotate with Pierce.

2020 fifth-round pick Broderick Washington (one sack, ten hits+hurries) has been promoted to starting defensive end. Budget free-agent pickup Brent Urban will provide depth.

Edge-rusher Tyus Bowser is still recovering from a knee injury. He had two sacks (13 hits+hurries) in nine games last season. He should be available week one, and would start across from 2021 first-round pick Adefe Owah (three sacks, 34 hits+hurries). Actually, Oweh has done some of his best work rushing inside. He has disappointed as an outside pass-rusher.

2022 second-round pick David Ojabo and rookie fourth-round pick Tavius Robinson will provide depth:

Tavius Robinson: Robinson had seven sacks last season at Ole Miss. Solid combine. Nice job of forcing fumbles. It’s hard to tell how well he’ll be able to recreate that trick in the NFL. Fun to watch on film.

Robinson won with speed and quickness. He had difficulty winning with power, which means that for now, NFL offensive linemen will bully him. He’s going to need to get stronger to be a regular part of the rush rotation.

Robinson turned 24 in January. I’d start looking at him in the fifth round if I wanted to add some pass-rush depth.

Ojabo tore his Achilles at his pro day and missed almost all of his rookie season. The Ravens wanted some experienced depth, so they signed Jadeveon Clowney. Clowney pretty much quit on Cleveland last season. Myles Garrett went on record:

“I want volunteers not hostages,” Garrett said Friday. “If you feel like no one believes in you here, then go. Go where you feel like you’re wanted, you’re loved and you can be appreciated.”

Hopefully, Clowney gives the Ravens his best. He had nine sacks (41hits+hurries) with Cleveland in 2021.

#1CB Marlon Humphrey will is slated to start across from free-agent pickup Rock Ya-Sin. Humphrey was promoted when Marcus Peters departed. Humphrey had three interceptions last season. I wasn’t impressed with his overall coverage skills. I felt like the Ravens did a good job of protecting him schematically.

Ya-Sin has had trouble staying healthy. So far this preseason, he’s dealt with a knee injury. Humphrey has dealt with a foot injury. Projected starter in the slot budget free-agent pickup Arthur Maulet has dealt with a hamstring injury.

When healthy, Ya-Sin can be an effective press corner. Maulet played poorly in Pittsburgh last season.

The Ravens have plenty of other options. 2022 fourth-round pick Damarion Williams is an option in the slot. 2021 third-round pick Brandon Stephens did a decent job in limited usage last season. 2022 fourth-round pick Jalyn Armour-Davis is an intriguing option, if he can manage to stay healthy. That’s been a challenge for him.

We may even end up seeing free-agent pickup Ronald Darby. He missed most of last season with a torn ACL. The Ravens signed him after Humphrey got hurt. We may see a lot of variety in the Ravens’ secondary this year.

2022 first-round pick Kyle Hamilton was used mostly as a nickelback. With strong safety Chuck Clark now in New York, Hamilton will pair with Marcus Williams. Truth be told, it was not an impressive rookie campaign for Hamilton. As for Williams, he had four interceptions in ten games last season. The Ravens will be hoping for more of the same.

2020 seventh-round pick Geno Stone will provide depth.

Justin Tucker remains the best kicker in the history of the league. 2022 fourth-round pick punter Jordan Stout didn’t quite live up to expectations. Good coverage units helped quite a bit. Return specialist Devin Duvernay is good on both kicks and punts. The Ravens’ special teams are consistently elite.

The Ravens have knocked on the door a few times but have yet to appear in an AFC Championship Game with Lamar Jackson. It’s not going to get any easier. The AFC North is loaded. Jacksonville is rising. Buffalo is tough. Kansas City remains the team to beat. The Ravens have tried reloading the offense. If Bateman and OBJ are 100%, it could work.

I’m a little concerned about the offensive line. I’m also concerned about the pass-rush. The Ravens will need to make all the pieces fit. Finally, the secondary is already struggling to stay healthy. Next Man Up will only get you so far. On the other hand, the wide receiver corps really has been improved. Lamar Jackson should bounce-back with a vengeance. 11-6.

Cincinnati Bengals:

2022 Record: 12-4

Projections:

Scouting Wins: 11.37

DVOA Wins: 10.2

FPI Wins: 10.7

Market Wins: 10.89

Implied Pythag: 64.81%

I don’t generally focus on QB negotiations, but I will say the Burrow situation intrigues me. The cap-advantageous move is to put a large amount of the money into a bonus, and then have a number of void years. That pushes out when the money counts against the cap. With a rising salary cap, that makes it take up a smaller percentage of overall cap space over the life of the contract.

Let’s say you want to sign someone to a $20M, one-year deal. You could pay him $4M in salary and pay out $16M in bonuses with three void years. Additionally, let’s say the salary cap is $250M this year, but $260M next year. If all of that $20M counted this year, that would be 8% of your salary cap. At $8M this year, $12M next year, it’s 3.2% this year, 4.62% next year. In total, the same deal can be 7.82% split over two years, or 8% all in the first year.

Plenty of teams practice such salary cap magic/shenanigans. But that requires you to have the cash on hand to pay out bonuses now. Bengals owner Mike Brown is one of the cheapest owners in the NFL. So, with Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins all looking to get paid soon, Brown’s in a tight spot.

Those are issues for a future day. For now, the Bengals are trying to get back to the Super Bowl. Joe Burrow gives them a realistic shot:

2022: 4,475 yards, 35 TD, 12 INT, 6.5 NY/P, 10.9% DVOA, 1,054 DYAR (in 16 games)

(Update: Burrow has been slowed by a calf injury. He should be available, but might not be 100% early in the year.)

He wasn’t fully healthy at the start of the season. Once he recovered, the Bengals were one of the best teams in the NFL. It helps that he’s working with two of the best wide receivers in the NFL.

2021 first-round pick Ja’Marr Chase:

2022: 87 receptions, 1,046 yards, +4.1 +/-, 4.5% DVOA, 190 DYAR (in 12 games)

Chase was slowed by a hip injury. When healthy, he’s still the same dude that put up a 19.3% DVOA his rookie season (326 DYAR).

2020 third-round pick Tee Higgins:

2022: 74 receptions, 1,029 yards, +8.3 +/-, 18.9% DVOA, 274 DYAR (in 16 games)

There’s no fifth-year option on Higgins, so just as a chronological issue, his bill comes due first. The dude can play.

Slot receiver Tyler Boyd is no slouch himself:

2022: 58 receptions, 762 yards, +4.7 +/-, 23.5% DVOA, 234 DYAR (in 16 games)

WR4 Trenton Irwin was efficient in limited usage:

2022: 15 receptions, 231 yards, +1.4 +/-, 52.2% DVOA, 110 DYAR (in 9 games)

Irwin will have to fight for snaps against rookie fourth-round pick Charlie Jones and rookie sixth-round pick Andrei Iosivas:

Charlie Jones: Coming off of a huge season at Purdue:

2022: 156 targets, 110 receptions, 1,361 yards, 12 TD, 49.8 EPA

Jones produced for Purdue when everyone knew they were going to throw to him. Backed it up at the combine.

The main concern about Jones is his size. That, and the multiple medical red flags due to various injuries throughout his college career.

Jones has returned a punt and a kickoff for a touchdown and should provide value on special teams.

In the modern kinder, gentler NFL, I see a place for Jones as a possession receiver who can line up outside or work inside. On film, this dude looked like a baller. I’ll trust him to figure out how to get open at the next level. Early day three value.

Andrei Iosivas: Incredible athletic profile. Put up solid numbers at Princeton:

2021-22: 107 receptions, 1,646 yards, 12 TD’s

Unfortunately, a Princeton football education doesn’t prepare you to play NFL football. He’s going to be a project and will need time before he’s ready to contribute.

I am leery of track athletes with small hands. That’s Andrei (heptathlete), sub-9 inch hands. His decent grade is entirely based on his results vs. weak competition and an incredible combine.

In the end, he might make his mark as a return man and special teams ace who moonlights as a #4WR. That’s a mid-day three selection for me.

I liked both selections.

Knee, finger, groin, and ankle injuries kept free-agent pickup tight end Irv Smith off the field in 2021 and limited him to eight games in 2022:

2022: 25 receptions, 182 yards, -0.4 +/-, -22.7% DVOA, -35 DYAR (in eight games)

He was pretty good in 2020 (23.5% DVOA, 92 DYAR). We’ll see what he can do in Cincinnati.

Backup Drew Sample has -45 career DYAR. He’s a decent blocker with limited upside.

Joe Mixon is coming off of a strong season:

2022: 285 squid, 1,255 yards, 6.2% DVOA, 227 DYAR (in 14 games)

It was a tumultuous offseason for Mixon. I don’t expect that to affect him on the field.

Rookie fifth-round pick Chase Brown will provide depth. Brown has track-star speed. He can run some basic routes. Leaving him back in protection is an invitation to get Burrow killed.

I am not entirely sure what to make of the Orlando Brown signing (four years, $64M, $31M guaranteed). Brown has made the Pro Bowl four times. I thought he was pretty good in 2021. I thought he kind of sucked last season. He turned 27 in May and should still be in his prime. Perhaps 2022 was an off-year for Brown.

Brown will take over at left tackle. Jonah Williams will move over to right tackle. Williams was overmatched at left tackle so perhaps this will prove a better fit for his skill-set.

2022 fourth-round pick left guard Cordell Volson had a rough rookie season. Hopefully, he’ll use it as a learning experience and return as a stronger player.

Center Ted Karras finished first in my rankings. He was fantastic last season.

Right guard Alex Cappa wasn’t quite as good as Karras, but he was still very good.

2021 second-round pick Jackson Carman will provide depth outside. Budget free-agent pickup Cody Ford will provide depth inside.

(Editor’s note: La’el Collins is an injury-diminished mess until proven otherwise.)

If Orlando Brown works out at left tackle and Jonah Williams succeeds at right tackle, this Bengals offense could hit another stratosphere.

The Bengals’ defense was pretty good last year, finishing 11^th in DVOA. The Bengals have given it an infusion of young talent via the draft, using their top three picks on defensive end Myles Murphy, cornerback DJ Turner, and safety Jordan Battle:

Myles Murphy: I want to note that Murphy’s excellent numbers came on his pro day and not at the combine. Also, he weighed 271 at his pro day. Murphy has the size, length, and raw power that teams are looking for on the edge.

His level of production was decent, with 13.5 sacks and 25 tackles for a loss in his final 26 games. SackSEER has him as the third best edge prospect, but I should note that it only uses combine data. In Murphy’s case, I suspect his overall ranking would end up third in the class either way.

From what I could see, Murphy should be able to produce in the NFL. The traits are there. His technique is a tad limited, even for the college level. He simply hasn’t needed to develop a deep bag of tricks. In a couple of years, he’ll have a much more refined game.

It’s not his ability to beat the blocking that concerns me. It’s his ability to close. With better agility in the pocket, Murphy could have doubled his sack total. This might be tough to fix.

I see Murphy as a very good prospect who should come off the board in the 11-15 range. If he falls any further than that, I’d say he becomes quite a nice value pickup.

I thought Murphy was a pretty good value pick. One of the foremost Bengals fans/analysts, Joe Goodberry, strongly disagreed.

DJ Turner II: 4.26. That’s not the day before the draft. It’s Turner’s 40 time. Just to be clear, that was at the combine, not at his pro day with everything tilted in his favor. It shows on film and in his results:

2021-22: Three interceptions, -26.7 EPA on 118 targets (-0.23 EPA-per-target)

Turner has experience with both man and zone coverage. His size suggests he’ll work out of the slot in the NFL. However, since he has the speed to stick with the true elite deep threats, he may work outside per the matchups.

If there’s a concern for Turner, it’s that his size limits his ability to win 50-50 balls. He’s also had a small issue with DPI flags. He’s not great in run support. I can live with that. Between the interceptions and the passes defensed, Turner is an elite prospect that will be on everyone’s radar.

Turner is coming off the board day two. He might even come off the board round two. Speed and athleticism like this is hard to find. Even if he’s just an elite nickelback, that’s quite valuable. Size matters, but speed kills. It’s so hard not to be seduced by 4.26… I’d be interested in Turner outside of the top 50.

The Bengals getting Turner at 60 seems reasonable.

Jordan Battle: Solid blend of size and speed. Has played centerfield, in the box, and as a slot defensive back. The film shows he has a bit more closing burst than his combine numbers would suggest.

Battle has the Alabama issue where he’s already close to a finished product. Four interceptions over the past two seasons. Does a phenomenal job of timing his arrival to make a play without arriving too early. There’s a tradeoff here, though. Battle avoids flags, but he isn’t making as many plays on the ball as he otherwise might.

Battle did a decent job in the running game. Here’s one area where he isn’t polished, as his tackling technique could use some improvement. Part of it is he doesn’t quite have the level of power you might expect from looking at him.

Battle doesn’t play quite as fast as has teammate Branch. He lacks the premier athleticism that teams would like in the defensive backfield. Teams value shutdown cornerbacks much more than they value quality safeties. I’d probably start looking into him around the middle of day two.

Battle at 95 was also quite reasonable.

Murphy joins a pass-rush led by defensive ends Sam Hubbard (6.5 sacks, 49 hits+hurries) and Trey Hendrickson (eight sacks, 60 hits+hurries).

Along with Murphy, 2021 third-round pick Joseph Assai (3.5 sacks, 20 hits+hurries) and 2021 fourth-round pick Cam Sample (two sacks, 18 hits+hurries) will provide depth.

One area they did not upgrade their depth chart was at defensive tackle. B.J. Hill is solid (three sacks, 29 hits+hurries), but he did not receive enough help from 2022 third-round pick Zach Carter. D.J. Reader is a solid run-stuffer.

My sense is that unless Carter steps up, the Bengals are a man short here.

Converted safeties Germaine Pratt and 2020 third-round pick Logan Wilson have developed into a solid pair of off-ball linebackers. That’s a major surprise because for most of his career, Pratt was awful. The light finally came on just in time for Pratt, as 2022 was a contract year. The Bengals better hope the light stays on.

Wilson would have been entering a contract year, but the Bengals extended him in August. He’s earned it.

2020 fourth-round pick Akeem Davis-Gaither will join when the Bengals play a base 4-3. I thought he played well last season.

The losses of safeties Jessie Bates and Vonn Bell have left a huge hole in the Bengals’ secondary. 2022 first-round pick Dax Hill and free-agent pickup Nick Scott have their work cut out for them replacing what Bates and Bell brought to the table.

Hill played sparingly last season. Scott was a lower-budget replacement. Bates and Bell were a premium pairing (eight interceptions only told some of the story.)

Rookie third-round pick Jordan Battle will provide depth. He might press for playing time if either Hill or Scott struggle.

Cornerback Eli Apple has also departed, but that was more of a “don’t let the door hit you in the ass” situation.

The Bengals would like to start 2022 second-round pick cornerback Cam Taylor-Britt across from Chidobe Awuzie. Awuzie was one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL before he tore his ACL on Halloween. Britt had a very impressive rookie season. If Awuzie is healthy, this looks like a strong pairing.

Mike Hilton will cover the slot. Dax Hill can provide depth there if Battle is ready to start.

The Bengals are still deciding who will handle kick and punt returns. The draft gave them some new options. Charlies Jones might have the inside track on both jobs.

Rookie sixth-round pick Brad Robbins is competing with Drue Chrisman for the punting job. Chrisman provides decent distance, but Robbins is much better at producing hang time. I expect Robbins to win the job.

2021 fifth-round pick kicker Evan McPherson is solid. Overall, the Bengals’ special teams should be fine.

Super Bowl or bust is a tough ask outside of Kansas City or Philadelphia. Winning the AFC North would be a reasonable accomplishment. The major question is how good will the offensive line be? If Orlando Brown can return to form at left tackle and Jonah Williams works out at right tackle, the Bengals will have earned a massive return on their investment. Joe Burrow with time is a scary mofo.

Defensively, the Bengals are in a bit of a transitional period. The secondary is young and talented, but it’s also going to look very different than it did last year. We’ll see if they have two NFL-level starting safeties. We’ll also see if the interior of the defensive line can hold up.

I’m expecting Burrow to continue to improve. The Bengals were monsters at the close of last season. They play in a very tough division and have road games at Kansas City, San Francisco, and Jacksonville, as well as a home date vs. Buffalo. 11-6 seems like a fair baseline in that context. 11-6.

Cleveland Browns:

2022 Record: 7-10

Projections:

Scouting Wins: 9.36

DVOA Wins: 10.5

FPI Wins: 8.75

Market Wins: 9.19

Implied Pythag: 52.67%

Would you believe the Browns finished 11^th in DVOA last year? Quarterback Jacoby Brissett had the best season of his career:

2022: 2,608 yards, 12 TD, 6 INT, 6.3 NY/P, 13.0% DVOA, 707 DYAR (in 16 games)

The guy the Browns actually care about was rusty:

2022: 1,102 yards, 7 TD, 5 INT, 5.3 NY/P, -16.6% DVOA, -15 DYAR

It was a far cry from what we had last seen from Deshaun Watson:

2020: 4,823 yards, 33 TD, 7 INT, 7.7 NY/P, 20.2% DVOA, 1,222 DYAR

That’s what the Browns paid for. This preseason, Watson has looked a lot closer to his 2022 self than what we saw from him in Houston. The Browns’ brass has to be a little shook right now. I know I am.

#1WR Amari Cooper put up excellent numbers last season:

2022: 78 receptions, 1,160 yards, +0.6 +/-, 15.8% DVOA, 302 DYAR

If Watson is fully back, Cooper could put together a monster season.

2020 sixth-round pick Donovan Peoples-Jones has seen his efficiency drop as his usage has increased:

2020: 14 receptions, 302 yards, +2.5 +/-, 51.9% DVOA, 95 DYAR (in 12 games)

2021: 58 receptions, 597 yards, +0.4 +/-, 13.1% DVOA, 122 DYAR (in 14 games)

2022: 61 receptions, 839 yards, +1.7 +/-, 3.9% DVOA, 127 DYAR

DPJ remains a legitimate deep threat. A fully operational Watson should be able to take good advantage of DPJ’s skills.

The Browns traded for the Jets’ disgruntled 2021 second-round pick Elijah Moore:

2021-2022: 80 receptions, 984 yards, -4.4 +/-, -12.2% DVOA, 7 DYAR (in 27 games)

Moore will get a fresh start as the slot receiver in Cleveland’s offense. I wish him nothing but the best.

Free-agent pickup Marquise Goodwin is currently sidelined with blood clots in his chest and legs. I hope he recovers. If healthy, he’s another viable slot option (20.4% DVOA, 107 DYAR in 2022).

The Browns also bolstered their wide receiver corps in the draft via rookie third-round pick Cedric Tillman:

Cedric Tillman: Tillman put himself on the NFL’s radar with a monster 2021 season (64 receptions, 1,081 yards, 12 TDs, 66.7 EPA on 87 targets). Tillman used his size to bully cornerbacks on the outside. He suffered an ankle injury that limited him to six games in 2022.

Tillman has not run anything resembling a full route tree. That’s something his coaching staff can work on. Tillman’s combination of size, speed, and production vs. top competition is rare.

With his long arms and huge hands, Tillman presents a large reliable target. He only had six drops in his collegiate career. The main concern about Tillman is his ability to separate from NFL cornerbacks. It will be more difficult for him to win with size, so he’ll need to refine his technique. He’ll also need to prove he can regain his 2021 form. That’s at least partly a question for the medical staff.

With so many of the top wide receivers in this class being slot specialists, Tillman’s ability to work outside should not be undervalued. I’d be comfortable taking Tillman off the board around the middle of day two.

(Editor’s note: Tillman will be 23 years old when the draft kicks off.)

#1TE David Njoku has solidified his reputation as a reliable target:

2021: 36 receptions, 475 yards, -0.4 +/-, 12.8% DVOA, 71 DYAR

2022: 58 receptions, 628 yards, 2.4 +/-, 10.9% DVOA, 97 DYAR (in 14 games)

Njoku should continue to see plenty of action. Free-agent pickup Jordan Akins (and Watson’s former teammate) will provide depth:

2022: 37 receptions, 495 yards, +1.9 +/-, 14.6% DVOA, 81 DYAR

Even without Goodwin, Watson should have plenty of weapons to work with.

Nick Chubb is the rare case of a star running back massively outperforming his second contract.

2021: 253 squid, 1,433 yards, 12.2% DVOA, 241 DYAR (in 14 games)

2022: 339 squid, 1,764 yards, 18.8% DVOA, 401 DYAR

Most running backs don’t matter. Chubb does.

2022 fifth-round pick Jerome Ford will provide depth.

The Browns picked up their fifth-year option on 2020 first-round pick left tackle Jedrick Wills. After finishing 25^th in my rankings in 2021, he finished 23^rd in 2022. He’s played through some nagging ankle injuries and the Browns think his best days are ahead of him. It’s a reasonable price to pay for a left tackle. If he fails to improve, they’ll move on in 2025.

Left guard Joel Bitonio put together another strong season, finishing tenth in my rankings. He was fifth in 2021.

Center Ethan Pocic finished second in my rankings. He was excellent.

I’m well aware that left guard Wyatt Teller is very good at the things I don’t measure and poor at the things I do. Even so, he was lousy at best last season. Powerful run blocking only gets you so far.

It’s tough to know what to make of right tackle Jack Conklin. He did a decent job of preventing pressure, but at the expense of too many penalties. However, he also played through injuries and earned a fairly sizable extension. He has previously played at an elite level, so perhaps he can return to that peak.

Rookie fourth-round pick Dawand Jones will provide depth:

Dawand Jones: Kudos to Dawand for running the 40. He is not a mammal that was built for speed. Weighed 374 at the combine. Declined to be weighed at his pro day. Weight has been an issue for Jones throughout his collegiate career.

Jones is still learning how to play right tackle. Basketball was his first love. His length and power is obvious on film. He’ll need some time to upgrade his technique, particularly against speed rushers looking to turn the corner.

In the running game, Jones is a mauler. If he latches his long arms onto you, the best you can hope for is a holding penalty. You will not be making a tackle. Jones isn’t great at attacking the second level. The best I can say for him there is at least he makes guys go around him.

In the passing game, his ceiling is incredible. If he can fix his footwork, he could be one of the premier right tackles in the NFL. Jones is a good example of George Young’s Planet Theory. I’d be comfortable snagging him early day two.

I’m not entirely sure why Jones fell this far. I think the Browns got a great deal on a player with mammoth upside.

The Browns had two issues they had to address with their front-seven. The first was the inability to stop the run. There are multiple ways to be poor against the run. A team can have a lack of power up front or a lack of speed on the second level. The Browns failed in both areas, but particularly in terms of power.

The second issue was the lack of a quality pass-rusher to start across from Myles Garrett. Garrett is still a monster (16 sacks, 48 hits+hurries), but the defense as a whole would benefit if he were not going solo. For one thing, he sucks up most of the double-teams that an offense can spare. Garrett is usually playing on hard mode.

To assist Garrett, the Browns traded for Za’Darius Smith (10 sacks, 60 hits+hurries). Smith missed almost the entirety of 2021 with a back injury. When he was healthy in 2019 and 2020 he averaged 13 sacks per season. This looks like a formidable pairing.

There’s still a question about pass-rush depth. The Browns signed Ogbo Okoronkwo (five sacks, 26 hits+hurries). After that, it looks grim. 2022 third-round pick Alex Wright had zero sacks (four hits+hurries) last season. He just had knee surgery and will miss the start of the season. 2022 seventh-round pick Isaiah Thomas just had knee surgery as well. He, too, will miss the start of the season. That leaves rookie fourth-round pick Isaiah McGuire.

McGuire tested better than he looked on film. I suppose I should look on the bright side. McGuire will get plenty of reps early, which should boost his development.

As for their run defense, the Browns worked quite hard to rebuild it. First, they signed premium defensive tackle Dalvin Tomlinson (2.5 sacks, 19 hits+hurries). Tomlinson gives them an upgrade in terms of raw power. They followed that up by drafting rookie third-round pick Siaki Ika:

Siaki Ika: Ignore all the red numbers. Focus on the green. Ika is a large man with a low center of gravity. He’s not here to rush the passer (although he can shove the center into the backfield). Ika is an old-school space-eater.

Ika is a good athlete for a man his size. He’s going to need to better handle double teams, as his job is going to be to hold his ground against the run. It would be nice if his arms were a little longer to allow him to manipulate offensive linemen.

Ika isn’t a premium prospect. He’s a guy you pick up if you need someone stout in the middle of your defensive line. There’s some upside (4.5 sacks in 2021). Mostly, though, you should expect to find a quality nose tackle at an affordable price. Ika is a fine selection late day two or early day three.

Finally, the Browns signed Shelby Harris. Harris did fine work in Seattle against the run. Two sacks (18 hits+hurries) was not quite enough for them to retain his services.

The new trio will join 2020 third-round pick Jordan Elliot (two sacks, 12 hits+hurries). If nothing else, the Browns have certainly beefed up.

The Browns hope that the return of middle linebacker Anthony Walker will fix their second-level issues. Walker missed almost all of 2022 with a quad injury. I thought he did a decent job in 2021. Hopefully, he’s returning at 100%.

Walker will be paired with 2021 second-round pick Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah. Koramoah dealt with knee and foot injuries last season. If healthy, he’s a linebacker/safety hybrid with good coverage skills. He’s apparently tried to bulk up a bit. We’ll see if he’s as athletic as he was pre-injuries.

Sione Takitaki will join in the base 4-3. Takitaki is fairly poor. His presence on the depth chart is a sign of how little Cleveland values off-ball linebackers. Fair enough.

#1CB Denzel Ward is excellent. He’ll line up against opposing #1WRs and generally does well in the matchup.

2022 third-round pick Martin Emerson had a fantastic rookie season. He won the #2CB job early and faced a ton of targets. His results had to please the Browns’ coaching staff.

It’s not clear if 2021 first-round pick Greg Newsome wanted out of Cleveland or not. The rumor is he wasn’t happy about being demoted into the slot. After a rough rookie season outside, he posted phenomenal numbers in 2022. If he keeps this up, he’s eventually going to make a mint.

This is as good of a trio as you’ll find in the league, and they’re fairly young, to boot. Denzel Ward is the old man and he won’t turn 27 until next April.

The Browns will be pairing 2020 second-round pick strong safety Grant Delpit with free-agent pickup free safety Juan Thornhill.

Delpit has had issues staying healthy. He missed 2020 with an Achilles injury. Last season, he showed what he was capable of, with four interceptions and 105 tackles.

It’s tough to get a good read on Thornhill. Kansas City played a ton of two-high looks. Cleveland will be playing a more traditional defense. Thornhill should be able to do a decent job. Either that, or he’ll get benched in favor of budget free-agent pickup Rodney McLeod. We shall see.

Overall, this is an excellent secondary. Rookie fifth-round pick Cameron Mitchell will provide depth in the slot.

Punter Corey Bojorquez is excellent. 2022 fourth-round pick kicker Cade York had a rough rookie campaign. He was solid on kickoffs, so perhaps he’ll get the hang of field goals. Jakeem Grant is a quality return man. If York gets his act together, this will be a solid unit.

(Update: Grant may have broken his knee. If so, Donovan Peoples-Jones will get a crack returning punts and Jerome Ford will be back on kickoffs.)

The Browns’ season hinges on whether or not Deshaun Watson returns to his pre-suspension form. If he does, this roster looks strong. The Browns have plenty of weapons and an elite running game. Defensively, they’ve upgraded their pass rush and beefed up their defensive line. Better health will improve their linebacker corps. They have an elite trio of cornerbacks as well. This is a team built to win now. But… we need to talk about Deshaun Watson’s contract.

Watson, while effectively suspended (we didn’t know the actual suspension timeline yet) negotiated a five year deal for $230M. Fully guaranteed.

The late professor Joseph Maciariello taught us: “You don’t get what you expect. You get what you inspect and what you reward.”

Watson doesn’t need to bust his ass in the gym or live in the film room. I’m sure he wants to win, but will he kill himself in practice to get there? I don’t know. I know incentives matter. Watson doesn’t have to worry about a new deal until 2027.

Other sports have guaranteed contacts. We still see players put in the work. Football is different in that, in general, players have strong financial incentives to perform (to avoid getting cut/released). Watson is an outlier.

I bring this up because he’s sucked this preseason. His legs have come back, but the passing game looks like dreck. He’s also slightly out of sync on handoffs, which is something you should generally fix in practice.

I have no insight into Watson’s practice habits. I just know he’s in an unusual spot. This is such a talented roster that I would have them winning ten games if Watson were merely mediocre. They’d be title contenders if he gets back to his peak. If he really does suck, he can drag them down. At this point, I am going to trust my old professor. Watson ain’t it. 9-8.

Pittsburgh Steelers:

2022 Record: 9-8

Projections:

Scouting Wins: 7.23

DVOA Wins: 9.3

FPI Wins: 8.55

Market Wins: 8.99

Implied Pythag: 50.25%

The verdict is still out on 2022 first-round pick Kenny Pickett:

2022: 2,404 yards, 7 TD, 9 INT, 5.4 NY/P, -7.7% DVOA, 112 DYAR (in 13 games)

Pittsburgh closed the season strong, winning six of their last seven games. Pickett effectively missed two of those game. The Steelers closed 5-0 when he played, including a tough win at Baltimore. That’s the kind of thing that endears you to Steelers fans.

Pickett did a fine job of improvising. He struggled to run the base offense as called. He’s going to need to get better at reading defenses and anticipating where his targets will break open. He was a late bloomer in college. I don’t think he’ll have quite as much time to adjust in the pros.

(Update: I don’t want to read too much into preseason “football,” but Pickett has looked good.)

Coming into the NFL I had an injury red flag on 2022 second-round pick George Pickens. He tore his ACL in college. We knew he had retained his speed, but it wasn’t clear if his agility had returned. Now, after one season in the NFL… we still don’t know:

2022: 52 receptions, 801 yards, +3.5 +/-, 15.7% DVOA, 194 DYAR

Pickens was a dominant straight-line sideline receiver. His speed, strength, and great hands were all on display. If he can develop a deeper route-tree, Pickens is a potential monster.

Diontae Johnson struggled last season:

2022: 86 receptions, 882 yards, -5.1 +/-, -21.0% DVOA, -98 DYAR

I don’t care a lick about fantasy football, but it is notable that Johnson failed to score a touchdown last season. He scored 15 touchdowns in 2020 & 2021 in 31 games, but was still ineffective overall (-12.9% DVOA, -5 DYAR). I appreciate that Johnson would be more successful with better quarterback play. It’s still problematic when your most-targeted receiver is below replacement-level.

The Steelers swapped seventh-round picks with the Rams to acquire Allen Robinson. It’s been a rough run for Robinson:

2021: 38 receptions, 410 yards, -2.0 +/-, -9.2% DVOA, 19 DYAR (in 12 games)

2022: 33 receptions, 339 yards, +0.6 +/-, -5.2% DVOA, 32 DYAR (in 10 games)

He’s taking over as Pittsburgh’s slot receiver. Hopefully, he jells with Pickett.

It feels weird to say, but Pittsburgh doesn’t really have a WR4. 2022 fourth-round pick Calvin Austin is a return specialist. So is Gunner Olszewski. Miles Boykin makes his living on special teams. These three players combined for six receptions last season. Austin didn’t even play a snap on offense. The Steelers’ roster is just built different.

2021 second-round pick tight end Pat Freiermuth is a reliable target:

2021: 60 receptions, 497 yards, +2.5 +/-, 2.6% DVOA, 51 DYAR (in 16 games)

2022: 63 receptions, 732 yards, -2.7 +/-, 3.0% DVOA, 66 DYAR (in 16 games)

His blocking still needs improvement, but that’s not how he earns his paycheck. Zach Gentry is the better blocker but offers little as a receiver (19 receptions, 132 yards, -25.8% DVOA, -27 DYAR).

2022 sixth-round pick fullback Connor Heyward contributes sparingly (12 receptions, 151 yards, 31.0% DVOA, 40 DYAR).

I bring all of this up to point out there is room for rookie third-round pick Darnell Washington to contribute:

Darnell Washington: A physical marvel. His mix of size and speed is elite. Add in his length and hands and you are looking at a unique talent. It’s enough to make you wonder why he wasn’t more productive at Georgia:

2022: 45 targets, 28 receptions, 454 yards, 2 TD, 18 EPA

I’m not going to knock his efficiency. Additionally, it’s not like Georgia was lacking in skill talent. Washington was simply one option among many. Having said that, his film simply doesn’t match his athletic profile.

I will note that his blocking skills are strong, with room for growth. If he can learn to play with a slightly lower center of gravity, he can be a true mauler.

It’s possible that my expectations for Washington are too high. He doesn’t have wide receiver speed. Elite coverage linebackers should be able to stick to him, so he’ll have to lean on his ability to box out the coverage.

It’s hard to ignore how Mayer and Kincaid dwarfed Washington’s college production. It’s also hard to ignore Washington’s incredible hands and catch radius. When I look at Washington, I see a potentially elite blocker and red-zone target.

Washington is a bit raw for a prospect coming out of UGA. He’ll likely need some time to reach his full potential. Mayer might be the “safest” tight end prospect in the draft, but Washington is the one I’d most like to see end up in NY.

I adore Washington as a prospect and think he was a great selection by Pittsburgh.

2022 first-round pick Najee Harris remains a workhorse:

2021: 401 squid, 1667 yards, -7.0% DVOA, 47 DYAR

2022: 326 squid, 1,263 yards, -5.6% DVOA, 75 DYAR

He’s a good running back who fights through tackles, but it’s hard to look at those numbers and feel like the Steelers are getting a proper return on their investment. Perhaps they feel differently, though. Harris has regularly faced stacked boxes. Pickett developing into a better passer would make Najee’s life easier.

Jaylen Warren and 2020 fourth-round pick Anthony McFarland will provide depth.

2021 fourth-round pick left tackle Dan Moore did a lousy job of pass protection. The Steelers knew they needed an upgrade here, so Moore will start until rookie first-round pick Broderick Jones is ready to play:

Broderick Jones: Jones checks all the boxes. Size, length, athleticism, college pedigree. Great feet. Highly adept at taking quick sets and resetting. He’s only made 19 career starts at left tackle, yet held down the position in back-to-back National Championships.

Jones is still learning the position and his technique has plenty of room for improvement. His coaches will have to teach him proper hand usage. To his credit, Jones has learned to protect the quarterback without getting flagged for holding. Additionally, his run blocking skills are rare. This dude can wreak havoc around the edge and downfield.

The knocks on Jones are a lack of dominant power and an only decent performance of winning on first contact. NFL bull-rushes will be a challenge for him until he learns how to set a firmer anchor. Also, while his arms exceed the bare minimum for the position for most teams, the preference would be for 35”+.

Jones is a solid prospect. He wasn’t as dominant as Skoronski, and lacks Johnson’s size. As such, he’s relegated to #3OT. Given the positional value, I’m fine with taking him off the board outside of the top 10.

Left guard Kevin Dotson did a decent job blocking, but he drew way too many flags. He’s been benched in favor of free-agent pick Isaac Seumalo. Seumalo did a mediocre job at right guard last season for the Eagles.

Different offensive ratings systems will judge different things. Mason Cole finished fourth in my positional rankings. I thought Pittsburgh put him in a lot of tough spots and that he handled himself admirably.

Right guard James Daniels was solid.

Right tackle Chukwuma Okorafor cleaned up his penalty issues, but at the expense of giving up way too much pressure. I’ve become frustrated with his play. However, the Steelers are pretty cost-conscious when it comes to their offensive line, so he’s here to stay (through 2024.)

I should note that Dan Moore and Kevin Dotson did a fine job of run-blocking. The Steelers were quite effective running to the left last season. That’s one area where their replacements might not match up.

The Steelers signed Nick Herbig to boost their interior offensive line depth. They also drafted his brother. More on this in a bit.

In 2020, the Steelers had 56 sacks. They had 55 in 2021. Last season, they only managed 40.

Looking deeper, defensive tackle Cam Heyward had another excellent season (10.5 sacks, 48 hits+hurries). Edge rusher Alex Highsmith broke out (14.5 sacks, 49 hits+hurries). The major drop came from T.J. Watt (5.5 sacks, 27 hits+hurries). Watt had 22.5 sacks in 2021. A pectoral injury limited him to ten games. If he’s back to being 100%, look for Watt and Highsmith to be a terrifying pair.

Heyward will be joined on the defensive line by defensive end Larry Ogunjobi (1.5 sacks, 26 hits+hurries) and rookie second-round pick Keeanu Benton:

Keeanu Benton: I want to like Benton. He’s a Badger. It’s just… when judged against NFL standards, he’s merely okay.

He had 4.5 sacks in 2022. Not bad for a nose tackle! But when you see the plays, the first has him stonewalled by the initial blocking. The quarterback sees nothing downfield and tries to run. Benton does a great job reacting, and grabs his leg, causing a half-yard loss. Well done.

The second is a coverage sack where his blocker has him covered, but then leaves him(?) to go help a teammate who was doing fine on his own. Seriously. Watch the two plays for yourself.

I don’t want to slag Benton. It’s great that he maintains both effort and awareness throughout the play. That was a constant on film and it should be considered a plus. I just want to make clear that you shouldn’t expect him to beat his man off of the snap.

The Badgers kept Benton under 40 snaps a game to keep him fresh. I expect his conditioning will improve in the pros. I see Benton as a serviceable nose tackle. He’ll do his best and hopefully set his teammates up to make plays. That’s a round-three value for me.

2022 third-round pick DeMarvin Leal and Montravius Adams will provide depth.

Budget free-agent pickup edge-rusher Marcus Golden (2.5 sacks, 45 hits+hurries) and rookie fourth-round pick Nick Herbig will provide depth behind Watt and Highsmith:

Nick Herbig: I might be biased here. Herbig did a fine job of converting pressure into production, with 20 sacks in his final two seasons at Wisconsin. Doesn’t have the elite traits teams are looking for.

What he does have is particular set of skills. Skills that make him a nightmare in the backfield. The tricky part is getting there.

He doesn’t have the power to be an every-down defensive end. The hope is that he can develop the skills to be a pass-rush specialist linebacker.

It’s always tricky asking someone to do something in the NFL that they haven’t proven they can do in college. I liked Herbig’s film (Go Badgers!). I admit it’s a bit of a reach, but I’d be comfortable rolling the dice on him outside of the top 100.

I don’t like reading too much into preseason football. Having said that, Herbig has looked good. As for Golden, he’s an elite run-stuffer. That’s a rare trait among edge-rushers.

Inside linebacker was a major weak spot for the Steelers last year. To that end, they signed Elandon Roberts and Cole Holcomb. Roberts is effective attacking the line of scrimmage (4.5 sacks, solid against the run). Holcomb missed ten games last season with a foot injury. When healthy, he was good for roughly nine tackles a game.

I’m not sold that the Steelers have solved their issues. Both Roberts and Holcomb miss more than their fair share of tackles. Additionally, neither has impressed me in coverage. I am just going to have to trust that the Steelers’ braintrust knows what they’re doing on this one.

Budget free-agent pickup Kwon Alexander will provide depth.

Free-agent pickup cornerback Patrick Peterson might be past his prime. He still snagged five interceptions last year. He’ll start across from Levi Wallace.

Wallace had four interceptions of his own, but there’s more to the story. Opponents picked on Wallace. The Steelers were forced to play him further off the line than they would have liked. To that end, they drafted his eventual replacement, rookie second-round pick Joey Porter Jr.:

Joey Porter Jr.: Fast, long, and tall. His press-jamming skills are going to give wide receivers nightmares. Has the size and strength to handle “mismatch” tight ends. Impressive closing speed showed up on film.

There are three issues that Porter will have to address to succeed in the pros. In order of importance:

1. Flags. Porter has learned how to play physical and prevent completions. He hasn’t learned how to do so without committing DPI, or its little brother, holding. With the increased level of competition, he’s going to have to learn how to keep his hands to himself after the five-yard cutoff.

2. Transitions. Porter is a bit slow to shift his weight, which gives receivers a slight bit of separation. This is something teams will need to work on. Better footwork will likely help with his flag issue as well.

3. Hands. One interception in 31 starts is bad enough. When you take his aggressive play style into account, it’s mind-boggling. He had opportunities, but his hands let him down. Porter will need to start dating a JUGS Machine.

Having said all of that, I don’t want to lose sight of the fact that we’re talking about a prospect that does not give up many receptions. He did a fine job in run support. He’s shown the ability to blanket receivers and make the quarterback look elsewhere. Last season he produced -3.2 EPA on a measly 29 targets (-0.11 EPA-per-target). Remember that this does not include penalties.

Porter will need some scheme protection. That’s fine. Players with his tools are rare. If he’s a fit for your system, he’s a solid top-15 value.

NFL teams were clearly less impressed with Porter than I was. I suppose we’ll have to wait and see if his slow hips will doom him or if he can fix his issues.

Budget free-agent pickup Chandon Sullivan will look to start in the slot. I expect he’ll do a decent job.

Star free safety Minkah Fitzpatrick responded to his new contract with an absolute beast of a season. Six interceptions plus solid support on multiple levels. He was the glue that held the defensive backfield together.

Free-agent pickup Keanu Neal is competing with Damontae Kazee for the strong safety job. Kazee missed eight games last season with a wrist injury. Neal has the edge for the starting job. Look for Kazee to appear in various nickel and dime packages.

Incumbent Pressley Harvin is competing with Braden Mann for the punter job. Mann did solid work for the Jets.

Incumbent Chris Boswell is competing with B.T. Potter for the kicker job. Potter hit a 52-yard field goal against Wake Forest. I wasn’t impressed with him overall. Boswell has had plenty of issues of his own, though.

Calvin Austin and Gunner Olszewski are competing for both return jobs. I think I’d prefer Austin on punts. No strong preference on kicks.

The good news is the Steelers are making poor performers earn their jobs back. The bad news is it’s not clear if the Steelers have great options.

Mike Tomlin is entering his 17^th season as the Steelers’ head coach. He still has yet to have a losing season. As a Jets fan I find this mind-blowing. Last season tested that run, as the Steelers were 5-8 with four games left. Four wins later, the streak continues.

Can they keep it going in 2023? A lot depends on Kenny Pickett. He should be better-prepared now that he has a year of experience under his belt. The offensive line has been rebuilt. The defense should benefit from a healthy T.J. Watt. But the biggest difference might be the schedule. Last year the Steelers had one of the toughest schedules in the league. This year, they get to face the AFC South and NFC West. That should be enough for Tomlin to get to 17. 9-8.

2023 NFL Preview: AFC South

September 6, 2023

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AFC South:

Jacksonville Jaguars: 10-7

Tennessee Titans: 8-9

Indianapolis Colts: 6-10

Houston Texans: 6-10

During the first eight years of its existence, the AFC South went 238-182 vs. the other divisions. Its only collective losing season was its first, when Houston went 4-12 as a new expansion team.

Since then, the AFC South has gone 285-399 vs. the other divisions. It’s been bad. The past three years in particular have been rough, with the division going 61-103. Perhaps one day the AFC South will return to respectability. I doubt it will happen in 2023.

Houston Texans:

2022 Record: 3-13-1

Projections:

Scouting Wins: 7.16

DVOA Wins: 5.6

FPI Wins: 6.45

Market Wins: 6.04

Implied Pythag: 29.55%

The Texans beat the Colts week 18. That knocked them to second in the draft order. I am not sure if the Texans would have been interested in trading with the Panthers. I do know that what followed is an absolute travesty.

The draft started reasonably well for the Texans. They selected quarterback C.J. Stroud with the #2 pick. From my draft snippets:

2. Houston Texans: QB CJ Stroud: Stroud would have been my first overall pick, so I can’t fault the Texans for selecting him second overall. The main argument against Stroud is that he’s already played with the best WR corps he’ll ever have, so his production at Ohio State was on easy mode. I can’t really rebut that, save to say that Stroud himself looked good on film. He’ll need to improve his anticipation, which is something his coaches will work on with him.

Before the draft there has been rumors that Houston was very interested in taking Alabama defensive end Will Anderson with the #2 pick. I would have considered that an error given the huge disparity in positional value. Quarterback simply is the most important position on the roster. The rational move is to take all of the potentially elite quarterback prospects before the other positions come off the board. The only exception is if you are already set at quarterback, and you are unable to find a trade partner at a reasonable price. This brings me to the #3 overall pick.

3. Houston Texans: DE Will Anderson: The Arizona Cardinals went into the draft with the #3 pick. It was understood that they wanted to trade it. The presumption was that a QB-hungry team would trade up for QB2 or QB3. It turned out that the Cardinals were the beneficiary of one of the weirdest trades I can remember? But why? Why did Houston feel the need to give up the #12 and #33 picks, as well as their 2024 first-round pick for Will Anderson?

Full disclosure, I had Anderson as the #1 non-QB on the board:

Even so, I thought this trade was insane. What’s even stranger is that rumors of it may have leaked before the draft. People dialed in to the Texans have suggested that there was an organizational dispute as to what to do with the #2 pick. Some people wanted CJ Stroud. Others wanted Anderson. When viewed in that light, trading up with Arizona could be considered a unifying move. Both groups got their man, so let’s move forward with a large talent infusion on both sides of the ball. Presumably something like that is how the trade got sold.

(Editor’s note: The Texans also got the #105 pick and gave up a 2024 third-round pick. I am considering that a wash.)

THAT IS INSANE! Absolutely fucking bonkers. I need to break this down:

1. Quarterbacks are more valuable than defensive ends. I know I said that earlier, but I feel the need to repeat myself.

2. It’s fine to disagree on the merits of various prospects. If some members of the Texans preferred Anthony Richardson to CJ Stroud, I would have understood. At least then we agree that we have to take a quarterback and discuss which one. That’s a healthy debate! The correct move with the #2 pick in this draft was to take QB2. Which is what the Texans did!

3. The #12, #33, and 2024 first-round pick is an enormous cost. If a team gave that up to take Anthony Richardson at #3, that would have been understandable. You paid what it cost to get your potential franchise quarterback. To pay that for a defensive end is indefensible.

There are additional rumors that the Texans, if forced to choose, would have gone with Anderson over Stroud. Technically, they took Stroud first, but the rumor is that they had a deal in place with Arizona and took Stroud first for leverage reasons. In other words, they took Stroud first to prevent another team from swaying Arizona and offering even more for the pick.

Perhaps that should have been their clue that giving this much up for a defensive end wasn’t a wise decision.

Arizona deserves some credit for parlaying the #3 pick into such an impressive haul. As for Houston: F.

The Texans’ organization is incompetent in ways that will doom them going forward. This is an organization that has never appeared in the AFC Championship Game. They’ve been around for 21 years. Sometimes they’ll get lucky and hit on a franchise quarterback. If they do, they might get to host the Saturday 4:35 wildcard game. They’ve done so six times before. At some point, the NFL might want to formally assign that time slot to the AFC South.

What the Texans won’t do is build an elite team. That’s hard to do when you give up multiple high first-round picks & more to grab a rookie defensive end.

In the short term, the Texans acquired two of the top players in the draft. Let’s start with quarterback CJ Stroud:

CJ Stroud: There’s a lot that goes into being a successful NFL quarterback. You can have prototype size, strength, and accuracy, and still fail if you’re unable to read defenses and make quick decisions. College production, even against high-level competition, does not guarantee success.

The reason I bring this up is to whine about the fact that I have a track record of overrating Ohio State quarterbacks. In recent history this applies to Justin Fields and the late Dwayne Haskins. Now, in the case of Fields one might argue that he hasn’t been given a fair shot to succeed in the NFL.

However, he still fell in the draft relative to where I would have selected him. That may be the case for CJ Stroud as well.

I can’t find fault with Stroud’s production:

2021: 317 completions, 4,435 yards, 10.1 YPA, 44 TD, 6 INT, 187.6 EPA (in 12 games)

2022: 258 completions, 3,688 yards, 9.5 YPA, 41 TD, 6 INT, 119.3 EPA (in 13 games)

He only took 26 sacks in those 25 games. For the most part Stroud is a pocket passer who doesn’t threaten you with his legs. One of the main knocks on Stroud is his performance under pressure. He is reluctant to throw to targets that aren’t clearly open. However, Stroud’s overall results show he’s been effective at avoiding getting pressured to begin with.

Size isn’t an issue for Stroud. He might be a little lighter than the prototype, but he’s well within NFL standards.

Stroud has the arm strength, accuracy, and touch the NFL is looking for. He can comfortably throw short, medium, or long, and adjust his velocity to whatever best suits the receiver and the play design.

In the biggest game of his collegiate career, Stroud shined, going 23-34 for 348 yards and four touchdowns against Georgia. He showed off more mobility than the Bulldogs expected. When he needed to perform late in the clutch, he led a 44-yard drive in 35 seconds. At that point, his coach choked, and their kicker followed suit.

Like Young, Stroud’s team had a talent advantage on a weekly basis. That may have led Stroud to become too conservative, waiting for his receivers to break open. In the NFL, he’ll need to improve his anticipation.

One of the main arguments against Stroud is that he’s already had the best wide receiver corps he’s ever going to have. In the NFL, he’ll have worse weapons, going against much better defenses. This is a real concern.

The second issue is his S2 score, so let me be explicit: I consider the S2 to be nonsense. I’m not alone:

Purveyors of snake oil are taking notes on the S2 Cognition Score discourse
— Michael Lopez (@StatsbyLopez) April 22, 2023

If teams want to take it seriously, fine. That’s their choice. I will not.

I can live with Bryce Young going ahead of Stroud. Young is capable of playing a beautiful brand of football, and if you think he’ll be able to withstand the rigors of the NFL, more power to you. I can even live with Anthony “Ham Cannon” Richardson going ahead of Stroud. Richardson’s ceiling is the Sistine Chapel. But Stroud is the most complete and trustworthy product in the draft. He’s NFL-ready, with measurables you can trust. QB1.

Now, let me admit that Stroud hasn’t impressed with his processing speed this preseason. It’s been somewhere between deliberate and glacial. He’ll need some time to adjust to the speed of the NFL. He’ll also need to adjust to the fact that his wide receiver corps doesn’t outclass the opposition.

It’s tough to find a true #1WR on the Texans’ roster. 2021 third-round pick Nico Collins has struggled with injuries. The Texans’ quarterbacks were a collective 517 yards below replacement-level last season. As such, I am not going to hold Collins’s 2022 performance against him:

2021: 33 receptions, 406 yards, -4.0 +/-, -7.7% DVOA, 25 DYAR (in 14 games)

2022: 37 receptions, 481 yards, -3.0 +/-, -13.0% DVOA, -2 DYAR (in 10 games)

Collins has had trouble generating separation. That’s a bad flaw to have (see Treadwell, Laquon). Perhaps a few years of experience and better health will allow him to find a new gear.

2022 second-round pick John Metchie is coming back from an ACL tear and leukemia. He wasn’t able to play in 2022. I hope he still has the athleticism he flashed at Alabama. If the ACL tear took away some of his agility, he’ll have a very tough time succeeding in the NFL.

Premium free-agent pickup Robert Woods might prove to be a disappointment. Let’s look back at his past two seasons:

2021: 45 receptions, 556 yards, +0.7 +/-, 12.7% DVOA, 139 DYAR (in nine games)

2022: 53 receptions, 527 yards, -1.7 +/-, -16.5% DVPA, -27 DYAR

He was with the Rams in 2021. Things were going well with Stafford and McVay before a knee injury ended his season. The Rams shipped him to Tennessee for a sixth-round pick. That didn’t really work out for Woods. He’ll try to rejuvenate his career in Houston. I’m concerned that even at his peak, Woods was nothing more than a serviceable slot receiver in a good situation.

Rookie third-round pick Tank Dell is another option:

Nathaniel “Tank” Dell: Oh dear. That is not the physical profile teams are looking for. But the production…

2021: 137 targets, 90 receptions, 1,330 yards, 12 TD’s, 79.7 EPA

2022: 154 targets, 108 receptions, 1,399 yards, 17 TD’s, 66.9 EPA

Houston doesn’t face the toughest of competition, so there are some questions of whether Tank can beat NFL defensive coverage. There’s also the issue of 19 drops over the past two seasons. With small hands it’s something that will remain a concern.

Tank did most of his damage working out of the slot. Presumably that’s where he would begin his career in the NFL. He also can provide some value returning punts, and possibly kicks as well.

To me Dell is a test of how much size matters for receivers in the NFL. Of course, if he has a fumbling problem (an issue at Houston), then he probably won’t see much playing time. I’ve given him a day-three grade, but he’ll probably be gone by then. I don’t think I’d have the guts to pull the trigger before round four. Maybe I’d be missing out. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

At least Dell didn’t have to travel far.

I am not sure why rookie sixth-round pick Xavier Hutchinson fell so far in the draft:

Xavier Hutchinson: Productive, yet frustrating. Hutchinson saw his drop rate spike in 2022 as he became a more focal point of the offense:

2020: 93 targets, 64 receptions, 771 yards, 4 TD’s, 22.2 EPA, 3 drops

2021: 104 targets, 82 receptions, 986 yards, 5 TD’s, 31.7 EPA, 3 drops

2022: 163 targets, 107 receptions, 1,171 yards, 6 TD’s, 33.9 EPA, 9 drops

His yards-per-target cratered, going from 9.5 to 7.2, despite his ADOT rising from 7.7 to 8.9. I know I’m throwing a lot of numbers at you. The main point is that Hutchinson was roughly as useful to the offense in 2022 as he was in 2021, despite seeing 59 more targets. He had the opportunity to have a monster season, but it wasn’t to be.

In Hutchinson’s defense, defenses knew Iowa State would be sending the ball his way. Hutchinson saw a lot of targets when I would not have classified him as “open.” He’s one of the few players in the draft who might have an easier time in the NFL due to less defensive attention. Hutchinson has decent size and athleticism. I would have expected him to be a more aggressive run blocker than he showed on film.

Hutchinson projects as a solid possession receiver who can work inside or outside. Perhaps his greatest strength is his versatility. He can win with strength, agility, or technique. He does a nice job of adjusting to balls in flight. His biggest weakness is his lack of a top gear to threaten defenses deep. Expect opponents to sit on the short routes until he proves he can punish them for it.

Hutchinson is a player with a fairly high floor. I trust he’ll be able to produce at the next level. I would be comfortable taking him late day two.

On this roster, Hutchinson should compete for playing time early in the season.

Free-agent pickup Noah Brown will provide depth.

The Texans procured the services of new #1TE Dalton Schultz:

2022: 57 receptions, 577 yards, -4.1 +/-, -9.2% DVOA, -12 DYAR

Schultz has had a weird career. From 2018-2020 he produced -10 DYAR. In 2021 he was great (20.3% DVOA, 190 DYAR). Last season he fell back to Earth. I have a feeling he’s not going to recreate the magic in Houston.

2022 fifth-round pick Taegan Quitoriano will provide depth.

With a feculent passing game, the Texans running game struggled to find space. It too was below replacement-level (-90 DYAR). 2022 fourth-round pick Dameon Pierce will once again get the bulk of the snaps:

2022: 259 squid, 1,104 yards, -12.4% DVOA, -36 DYAR (in 13 games)

Free-agent pickup Devin Singletary will provide depth:

2022: 229 squid, 1,099 yards, 1.2% DVOA, 120 DYAR (in 16 games)

If he reproduces that stat line, he’ll be a hero.

There are a few things to like about the Texans’ offensive line.

Left tackle Laremy Tunsil is excellent.

Right tackle Tytus Howard isn’t bad.

Free-agent pickup right guard Shaq Mason is solid.

Rookie second-round pick center Juice Scruggs should prove to be an upgrade over Scott Quessenberry.

That still leaves 2022 first-round pick left guard Kenyon Green. He absolutely sucked. I can only hope it was rookie jitters and he plays to his potential this season.

If nothing else, this line has plenty of room for improvement over last season. Free-agent pickup George Fant will provide depth outside. Rookie sixth-round pick Jarrett Patterson will provide depth inside:

Jarrett Patterson: Played at both center and left guard at Notre Dame. I’m unsure of where he’ll play in the NFL. Judging by his combine he might end up being a better fit at guard, short arms and all. He was a flag magnet in 2021 at center, but cleaned up his play in 2022 at left guard. It could also be a matter of development.

On film he looked… fine? Not dominant. His technique seemed fine. Patterson’s bad plays seemed less an issue of him making a mistake and more an issue of him being overmatched. That’s a bad sign as mistakes can be corrected, but talent is harder to acquire.

Patterson’s versatility makes him a fourth-round value to me. Even if he isn’t a day one starter, he’ll provide quality depth while he develops.

(Update: Oh boy. Juice Scruggs and Kenyon Green are both hurt and will start the season on IR. The Texans traded for Steelers backup Kendrick Green. Green might start at either center or left guad. Rookie sixth-round pick Jarrett Patterson is another option at center. Josh Jones is an option at guard.)

The Texans actually had a reasonable pass-rush last season. Rookie first-round pick Will Anderson will be the new headliner:

Will Anderson: Dominant in 2021, with 17.5 sacks and 31 tackles for a loss in 15 games. Very good in 2022, with 10 sacks and 17 tackles for a loss in 13 games. I’d feel a lot better about Anderson as a prospect if those numbers were reversed.

It showed up on film too. Anderson was more explosive in 2021. In 2022 he still had the technique and power, but was clearly a diminished player.

A good 40-time and his overall production led Anderson to finish atop the SackSEER projections. Also, don’t sleep on those 33.875 inch arms, they’ve given him an edge. But even against the run, Anderson had an issue with missed tackles in 2022.

This showed up in other ways. He was pressing in 2022, getting flagged nine times in 13 games. This was after having only been flagged three times in the previous 28.

I’ll be blunt: Even the diminished version of Anderson is top-10 pick worthy. But the 2021 version is the premier non-QB in the draft.

I haven’t seen any discussion of nagging injuries. And to be clear, Anderson was a two-time SEC Defensive Player of the Year. He was still quite good in 2022. Just not the player he was in 2021.

Given the positional value and possibility that 2022 was what counts for an off year for Anderson, I’d be fine making him the first non-QB off the board.

Anderson will be joining Jerry Hughes (nine sacks, 33 hits+hurries), 2020 third-round pick Jonathan Greenard (1.5 sacks, 11 hits+hurries), and free-agent pickups Jacob Martin (2.5 sacks, 15 hits+hurries), and Chase Winovich (one sack, eight hits+hurries). Hughes turned 35 in August and will need Jonathan Greenard to take a larger part of the load.

Rookie fourth-round pick Dylan Horton will provide depth:

Dylan Horton: Horton had 10.5 sacks last season at TCU (15 games). Decent combine. When I watched the film I saw the proverbial “high-motor” guy who gave his best effort every play. Horton came to college as a 200 pound safety and finished with four sacks in the National Semifinal against Michigan. (We will ignore the Championship Game per TCU’s request.)

Horton has a fair amount of scheme and positional versatility. The flip side of that is that he’s still developing his skills and will need some time to develop them to an NFL level.

There’s a natural risk of bias towards liking players who give their best every play, even if they aren’t elite talents. It’s something to be careful of, as the step up to the NFL is steep, and effort isn’t enough. My sense is that Horton should develop into a quality contributor and I’d be fine taking him outside of the top 100.

Premium free-agent pickup defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins (three sacks, 17 hits+hurries) will join Maliek Collins (3.5 sacks, 18 hits+hurries) on the defensive line. 2021 sixth-round pick Roy Lopez and free-agent pickup Hassan Ridgeway will provide depth.

The Texans have a reasonably solid defensive line. They paid through the nose for it, though.

They also have a surprisingly strong linebacker corps. Christian Kirksey played well last year. The Texans finally got a full season from him. He’ll be joined by free-agent pickup Denzel Perryman. Like Kirksey, Perryman is a reliable tackler and a seasoned veteran.

2022 third-round pick Christian Harris did a fine job in coverage. His speed and range are a boon to the defense.

The Texans gave the Jets a sixth-round pick to acquire Blake Cashman. Cashman had three sacks last season in limited usage.

Rookie fifth-round pick Henry To’oTo’o gives the Texans another interesting option:

Henry To’oTo’o: A modern linebacker, trading size for speed. Produced 205 tackles and 6.5 sacks in 28 games for the Crimson Tide. Henry can’t be expected to take on offensive linemen and still make a play. In fact, running backs were generally able to block him effectively. Henry was at his best working in space.

Henry did a fine job of diagnosing running plays, reacting quickly and getting to the spot. His zone pass coverage skills aren’t quite on the same level. He was better in man coverage where his natural athleticism helped cover up some of his mistakes.

Henry doesn’t have the traditional level of power teams are looking for inside. He played outside at Tennessee before transferring to Alabama. He might have to do so in the NFL. That will mitigate some of his issues navigating traffic, while still allowing him to show off his range.

I think Henry is a bit of a niche prospect. He has to naturally fit what your defense is asking of him. I don’t see him as a LB/S hybrid, nor as a true inside linebacker. Having said that, he brings plenty of athleticism with a wide range of experience. Without a natural fit, I’d take him around the middle of third round.

I think To’oTo’o was a nice value pick.

Budget free-agent acquisition Cory Littleton will provide depth.

I’m trying to figure out what to make of 2022 first-round pick #1CB Derek Stingly. He was awesome in 2019. Fell off quite a bit after that. A Lisfranc injury cut his college career short. He put up poor results before a hamstring injury ended his season. He still has the potential to be an elite cover corner. It’s also possible that 2019 was his peak and he’ll never play at that level again. The Texans are hoping he’s healthy and still getting better.

Stingly will start across from Steven Nelson. I thought Nelson was mediocre in 2022.

Slot cornerback Desmond King did a decent job. I’d like more consistency from him this season. Two interceptions buys him some slack.

The Texans added Shaquill Griffin for depth. Let me tell you, he did not impress me last year.

Tavierre Thomas looked very good after returning from a quadriceps injury. He might deserve more playing time.

I’m very excited about the new safety pairing. 2022 second-round pick free safety Jalen Ward had five interceptions last season. There’s plenty of room for growth, too. He’ll pair with free-agent Jimmy Ward. Ward had three interceptions himself and did a fine job in coverage.

M.J. Stewart and Eric Murray will provide depth.

Punter Cameron Johnston is one the best in the league.

(Update: He’ll start the season on IR. The Texans are currently dumpster diving for a replacement.)

Kicker Ka’imi Fairbairn bounced back from a terrible 2021. He was fantastic last season. The Texans also did a fine job of taking advantage of the new kickoff rules with excellent coverage.

It’s not clear who will handle the return duties. Steven Sims, Desmond King, and Tank Dell are all getting looks.

The Texans look to have an NFL-level defense and a division III offense. I’m keeping my expectations low for CJ Stroud’s rookie campaign. There’s not a lot of talent around him. The offensive line should be solid, though.

I like the front-seven. It’s possible the secondary will be quite good as well, especially if Stingley plays to his potential. A soft division should provide the Texans with some fair fights. I expect them to take a step towards mediocrity. 6-11.

Indianapolis Colts:

2022 Record: 3-13-1

Projections:

Scouting Wins: 7.16

DVOA Wins: 5.6

FPI Wins: 6.45

Market Wins: 6.04

Implied Pythag: 29.55%

2022 Indianapolis Colts quarterback:

2022: 3,854 yards, 17 TD, 20 INT, 5.1 NY/P, -30.8% DVOA, -926 DYAR

Please understand that Matt Ryan did not give this offense a viable chance to succeed. Sam Ehlinger and Nick Foles were even worse. The future is bright, though:

Anthony Richardson: We’ve never had a prospect anywhere close to Richardson. I’m not just talking about his insane combine. Cam Newton had a lot of similarities, if not the raw speed. But Newton was polished. He won the NJCAA Championship at Blinn College and followed that up with a BCS Championship at Auburn. Richardson has completed a total of 215 passes for 3,105 yards in his collegiate career. Let’s take a look at last season:

2022: 176 completions, 2,549 yards, 7.8 YPA, 17 TD, 9 INT, 2.3 EPA

2022: 88 carries, 735 yards, 40.8 EPA

Richardson averaged more yards per carry than yards per pass attempt. The truth is he’s still raw by collegiate standards, having dealt with numerous systems while at Florida. His accuracy is poor because his mechanics are terrible. He’s going to need years of training to get up to speed… is the narrative about Richardson.

Let’s break it down. Richardson’s passing numbers are better than they might appear. His receivers let him down quite a bit. That should be less of an issue in the pros.

His mechanics really do need quite a bit of work. Part of the problem is he has so much arm strength that he hasn’t had to learn proper footwork. This is a fixable issue.

The thing I want to focus on is the quality of Richardson’s decision-making. It was often excellent. For a guy who hasn’t had a lot of reps, he showed a solid understanding of both protection and coverage concepts. He also knew where to put the ball to beat coverage and protect his receiver.

Having said all of that, yes, he’s still fairly raw. His accuracy on short passes is N/A. Florida’s offensive system didn’t have many short routes (1-10 yards) for Richardson to target. When he did, the results weren’t great. Now let me again note that Richardson got very little help from his receivers or from his offensive coaches. This is an area where he’ll likely improve quite a bit in the pros.

Richardson did a great job of avoiding sacks. He could have rushed much more often than he did. Usually he repositioned himself in the pocket and looked to make a play downfield. And when he did take off? The defense now had quite the challenge.

It’s not just his rushing skills that make Richardson worth the risk and the effort. When he did manage to get his body in sync, he threw an absolutely beautiful ball. The arm talent here is exceptional. If Richardson can fix his mechanics and learn how to read defenses at an NFL-level, he’s a Dragon-level threat to the rest of his division.

If.

That’s the rub with Richardson. If he were as polished as Young, he’d be the most prized first-overall pick in the history of the NFL. As is, we’re talking about a quarterback who made 13 starts in college. His offense was… let’s be kind and say it was a work in progress. If you want to argue that’s he picked up some bad “hero-ball” habits at Florida, I’d have to concede the point. Again, this is something coaching and reps can fix.

His pre-snap reading skills will also improve with reps. I’m a broken record on this, because we’re dealing with a prospect who’s only made 13 starts.

The footwork is the big thing, though. Once that gets corrected, passes will stop sailing, and the rest of his game can develop. Richardson is the highest upside prospect in this draft. Does that make him worthy of the #1 overall pick? Probably not, given how polished Stroud and Young are. But once they’re gone, there’s no quarterback who has a better risk-reward profile than Richardson. And yet, Levis might go second, while we have no real idea of where Richardson ends up.

Richardson won’t turn 21 until May. He’s my QB3 because I’m a gutless coward. If I had the balls God gave the common prairie dog, I’d have Richardson ahead of Young. As is, he’d be my third quarterback off the board, and my third selection overall.

He’s a project with unprecedented upside. The Colts are now tasked with rehabbing and polishing Richardson’s game. They got lucky in that the Texans selected Will Anderson third, this allowing them to draft QB3. However, one of the requirements of getting lucky is that you take a risk. In this case, the Colts declined to pay whatever it would have cost to swap picks and move up to #3. Good for them.

Free-agent pickup Gardner Minshew will provide depth.

Richardson will be working with a talented young receiver corps. 2020 second-round pick Michael Pittman is looking to return to his glory days of 2021:

2021: 88 receptions, 1,082 yards, +6.7 +/-, 7.1% DVOA, 202 DYAR

2022: 99 receptions, 925 yards, -1.8 +/-, -13.2% DVOA, -6 DYAR (in 16 games)

2022 second-round pick Alex Pierce just wants an opportunity to succeed:

2022: 41 receptions, 593 yards, -5.9 +/-, -10.5% DVOA, 13 DYAR (in 16 games)

Pierce has great speed, but he has yet to show he can run a full route-tree. He might end up being used as a pure deep threat, as Richardson has the arm to beat defenses deep.

Rookie third-round pick Josh Downs gives the Colts a new option in the slot:

Josh Downs: A green athletic profile across the board, save for size. Elite slot production (195 receptions, 2,364 yards, 19 TD’s, 106.7 EPA on 264 targets over the past two seasons.) Downs had a bit of an issue with drops in 2021 (10 drops) but appeared to clean that up in 2022, dropping only 3 balls. Elite in space. Should be able to provide value returning punts.

Small slot receivers are becoming more common in the NFL. Downs will have to adjust to facing more aggressive press coverage. He’s developed an impressive ability to win in traffic, doing an excellent job of attacking the ball in flight.

Downs can create separation with his speed. That forced defensive backs to give him a cushion, which he took advantage of underneath. Downs can also stress the defense via pre-snap motion. He’s a top-tier athlete with certain size limitations.

Given his ability to provide value on special teams, I’m fine grabbing Downs late day one. Of course, that’s contingent on me having a need for another slot receiver.

I was very surprised Downs fell to the back half of day two. A good deal for the Colts.

They also signed budget slot option Isaiah McKenzie:

2022: 42 receptions, 423 yards, -1.4 +/-, 5.2% DVOA, 93 DYAR (in 15 games)

McKenzie will likely split time with Dobbs while Dobbs adjusts to the speed of the NFL.

Budget free-agent pickup Breshad Perriman and 2021 seventh-round round pick Mike Strachan will provide depth.

A hamstring injury has slowed 2022 third-round pick tight end Jelani Woods:

2022: 25 receptions, 312 yards, +0.4 +/-, -10.0% DVOA, -7 DYAR (in 15 games)

He hasn’t been able to play this preseason, which has dropped him on the depth chart.

2021 fourth-round pick Kylen Granson will likely start the season as TE1:

2022: 31 receptions, 302 yards, +3.2 +/-, -8.7% DVOA, -4 DYAR (in 13 games)

Mo Alie-Cox is another option:

2022: 19 receptions, 189 yards, -0.9 +/-, -14.4% DVOA, -13 DYAR

The Colts have a number of options. We’ll have to wait and see who eventually earns the trust of the coaching staff.

I am not sure what will happen with 2020 second-round pick running back Jonathan Taylor. Taylor crushed in 2021:

2021: 383 squid, 2,171 yards, 21.1% DVOA, 532 DYAR

Last season the Colts’ offense collapsed and took Taylor with it:

2022: 232 squid, 1,004 yards, -8.8% DVOA, -8 DYAR (in 11 games)

Taylor wants a new contract. The Colts are reluctant to pay him, but they still value him as a trade piece. They are reportedly asking for a first-round pick or equivalent value back in trade. Of course, that’s likely just a negotiating position. But any team trading for Taylor would also have to give him a new deal, or else they will be in the same spot the Colts are in.

If he stays, he’ll take some of the load off of Richardson. If he’s traded, look for Zach Moss and Deon Jackson to split his carries. Rookie fifth-round pick Evan Hull should get some looks on third down. He’s a speedster with plenty of receiving experience.

2022 third-round pick Bernhard Raimann wasn’t ready to start at left tackle last season. The Colts didn’t have any good options, so they threw him out there. He got demolished. The hope is that he’ll have learned from his many mistakes, and will be a much better player in 2023.

It was a bit of an off-year for left guard Quentin Nelson. I still rate him as one of the best in the league.

Center Ryan Kelly was excellent in 2020, sucked in 2021, and finished third in my rankings last season. Go figure!

2021 seventh-round pick right guard Will Fries finished outside of my top 32. Let’s leave it at that. It’s a bad sign for the Colts that he kept his job.

I like right tackle Braden Smith. His numbers were poor last season, but I attribute that to the quarterbacks putting him in tough spots. I expect him to bounce back this season blocking for Anthony Richardson.

Rookie fourth-round pick Blake Freeland will provide depth:

Blake Freeland: I’m wondering how much weight he can add to his frame. 6’8, 302 pounds makes for a very unusual prospect.

As you might imagine, Freeland was not a dominant run-blocker. It was tough for him to gain proper leverage against a moving target. He’ll need to add another 20+ pounds to possibly have the power needed to hold down a tackle job in the NFL. I do NOT see moving inside as an option for Freeland.

On the plus side, Freeland is very tall, which must be nice. He’s also a very good athlete, which makes me wonder if he might be able to move even further outside, to tight end. Freeland used to be a quarterback and has gained 100+ pounds in his effort to play tackle. At tight end, he could shed 20+ pounds, gain back some speed, and still be an elite blocker for the position. Obviously, it’s a lot to ask of someone still learning his current position. It’s just a thought for such an unusual prospect.

My expectation is that Freeland puts on some weight and sticks at right tackle for a team that doesn’t need him to run-block. As such, he looks like a third-round value.

I have to say, I love the idea of the Colts using Freeland in 6OL sets where he’s an eligible receiver.

The Colts’ defense has been steadily deteriorating from -9.5% DVOA in 2020 to -4.9% DVOA in 2021 to -0.9% DVOA in 2022.

Defensive ends Samson Ebukam (five sacks, 34 hits+hurries) and 2021 first-round pick Kwity Paye (six sacks, 25 hits+hurries) will have to step up to replace the departed Yannick Ngakoue (9.5 sacks, 35 hits+hurries).

Further development from 2021 second-round pick Dayo Odeyingbo (five sacks, 25 hits+hurries) would help as well.

The oft-injured Tyquon Lewis will provide depth, as will budget free-agent pickup Al-Quadin Muhammad and rookie sixth-round pick Titus Leo. Leo will need some time to adjust to NFL competition after playing his college ball at Wagner.

Things are a bit better at defensive tackle. Star DT DeForest Buckner (eight sacks, 44 hits+hurries) will pair with Grover Stewart (four sacks, 14 hits+hurries). Free-agent pickup Taven Bryan (three sacks, 16 hits+hurries) will provide depth.

Rookie fourth-round pick Adetomiwa Adebawore will likely join the rotation as well:

Adetomiwa Adebawore: 9.5 sacks over the past two seasons. Tremendous athlete, either at defensive end or at defensive tackle. In general, 280+ pound men do not run this fast. Adebawore is a legitimate superfreak who doesn’t have a natural position.

His athleticism showed up on film. So did his inexperience. Dude missed a ton of tackles by taking poor angles and not having proper body control. Some players have great football instincts. Adebawore doesn’t, at least not yet. Perhaps he’ll develop them with more reps.

Adebawore doesn’t have the natural flexibility you’d like at edge. This defaults him to trying to win with power. His upside here is that with a better developed set of moves and counters, you have a player who can overpower offensive tackles or blow by them. However, his new team might elect to have Adebawore bulk up and work as a pash-rush defensive tackle.

Right now Adebawore is a bit raw. He’ll need some time to reach his full potential. When he does, his upside is an elite pass-rush defensive tackle with the versatility to kick outside when needed. I’m not worried about his height, as it will allow him to get low when needed.

My love of “planet theory” bumps Adebawore into the mid-fifties for me. I’m fine taking him in the back half of round two.

I liked this selection quite a bit.

I’m a little worried about the Colts’ linebacker corps. Shaquille Leonard missed almost all of last season due to back issues. When healthy, he’s excellent. He’ll start alongside Zaire Franklin and E.J. Speed. Franklin has developed into a decent player. Speed would be a backup on a better roster. We may see the Colts play a fair amount of base 4-2-5 to hide some of the weaknesses here.

The Colts are keeping us guessing as to who will start at cornerback. I’m guessing rookie second-round pick Julius Brents will win one of the jobs outside:

Julius Brents: The size and length that the NFL desires. Coming off of a solid season at Kansas State (four interceptions, -13.2 EPA on 41 targets, -0.32 EPA-per-target.)

Brents has played both man and zone, showing off strengths and weaknesses in each. In man, he can take advantage of his reach and knock receivers off of their routes in press coverage. However, his lack of elite speed can bite him downfield. Also, he didn’t do a great job of adjusting to balls in flight. Interceptions aside, he could have had more pass breakups if he’d been more aware of where the ball was.

In zone coverage, his fluid movements give him great positioning. The agility he showed off at the combine was visible on film. However, he had a bad habit of being too attuned to the quarterback and not aware enough of the receivers in his range.

Both aggressive and effective in run support. If there’s a weakness here, it’s his preference for making the big hit instead of using proper form and technique.

Right now I’d trust Brents more in zone coverage than in man-to-man. Once he learns to be more consistent in his jamming skills, he projects to be a solid #2CB. Early third-round value.

Presuming Kenny Moore returns to the slot, that leaves four men competing to start across from Brents:

2022 undrafted free-agent Darrell Baker

2022 undrafted free-agent Dallis Flowers

Rookie fifth-round pick Darius Rush

Rookie seventh-round pick Jaylon Jones

Jaylon Jones: Not to be confused with the 2022 Ole Miss cornerback UDFA who signed with the Bears. That Jaylon Jones ran a 4.41 40. This one is a converted safety.

The film suggests he might have to return to his old position. He was flagged five times on only 18 targets last season. Woof! His technique is far from fundamentally sound.

I’d excuse that if Jones played like a box safety, but he only averaged three tackles a game throughout his college career. He didn’t have the range or the proper tackling technique to be a difference-maker against the run.

It’s not all bad for Jones. He had a pair of interceptions in 2021. He has NFL-level size and length. It’s just that poor footwork and only moderate athleticism put him at a disadvantage. I view him as depth at cornerback with some potential upside as a safety. Fifth-round value.

Darius Rush is a converted wide receiver. Elite speed. Rush might have some value in zone schemes where he gets to attack the ball.

Brents has been slowed by a hamstring injury, so we may see a Baker-Flowers pairing. That would be something.

2022 seventh-round pick Rodney Thomas played a deep free safety. He managed four interceptions. I’d like to see the Colts move him a bit closer to the line of scrimmage.

2020 third-round pick strong safety Julian Blackmon has never impressed me. In a deeper unit, he might be pressed for playing time.

2022 third-round pick Nick Cross will provide depth.

I have to say this defensive backfield gives me the willies. The Colts saw safety Rodney McLeod depart in free agency, and they traded away cornerback Stephon Gilmore. McLeod did excellent work for them last season. The Colts are in desperate need of cornerbacks. This could be a real problem for them.

Punter Rigoberto Sanchez returns after missing last season with a torn Achilles. He was fine in 2021.

I am a little surprised that the Colts are putting kicker Matt Gay in a training camp battle with Lucas Havrisik. I expect Gay to win it. He’s been quite good for the past few years.

I expect Isaiah McKenzie will return punts and Dallis Flowers will return kicks. We might see McKenzie on kicks as well. Josh Downs is also an option for both return jobs. The Colts’ special teams look solid.

I have to tell you, that defense has me shook. The Colts’ back-seven looks thin. The offense will almost certainly be improved. I am concerned that the defense will keep falling. With Anthony Richardson, brighter days are almost assuredly ahead. Not in 2023, though. 6-11.

Jacksonville Jaguars:

2022 Record: 9-8

Projections:

Scouting Wins: 8.76

DVOA Wins: 9.6

FPI Wins: 9.5

Market Wins: 9.69

Implied Pythag: 53.42%

It’s amazing what having a real NFL head coach can do. Freed from the incompetent Urban Meyer, the Jaguars revealed themselves to be a dangerous football team. They won the AFC South, which allowed them to host the Chargers in the Saturday night (!) wildcard game. It started poorly, with the Chargers holding a 27-7 halftime lead. The Chargers got conservative in the second half, allowing the Jaguars to mount a furious comeback. Jacksonville eventually won, 31-30.

The Jaguars even managed to give the Chiefs a scare in the divisional round game. The future is looking bright in Jacksonville. It all starts with 2021 first-overall pick quarterback Trevor Lawrence:

2021: 3,641 yards, 12 TD, 17 INT, 5.4 NY/P, -19.5% DVOA, -321 DYAR

2022: 4,113 yards, 25 TD, 8 INT, 6.4 NY/P, 13.0% DVOA, 974 DYAR

Lawrence still made a ton of mistakes last season, but he was able to overcome them (just as the Jaguars overcame four interceptions in the wild card game). This year, he should be more polished. There’s some question as to whether or not he should be more aggressive running the ball. Lawrence clearly passes up some opportunities to tuck it and run, but perhaps the Jaguars don’t want to trade short-term yardage for long-term injury risk.

The Jaguars beefed up their receiver corps, trading for suspended Falcons receiver Calvin Ridley. I have serious issues with the NFL allowing this trade. I’ll try to keep my rant brief.

You don’t trade players, you trade contracts. That’s to say, you trade contractual rights. When Ridley was suspended, the Falcons lost their contractual rights to Ridley for 2022.

The Falcons had picked up Ridley’s fifth-year option, which meant his salary was guaranteed. When he was suspended, that money no longer counted against their salary cap in 2022.

As it was an indefinite suspension, the NFL would need to reinstate Ridley for him to be allowed to play again. This was accounted for in the trade language:

“On November 1, 2022, despite being suspended for at least the entire 2022 season, the Falcons traded Ridley to the Jacksonville Jaguars for conditional 2023 sixth-round and 2024 fourth-round picks. The 2023 pick can become a fifth-rounder if Ridley is reinstated and the 2024 pick can either become a third-round pick based on playing time or a second-round pick if he signs a long-term extension.”

This meant the trade compensation itself could vary depending on the league’s decision. That offends me in and of itself. A bigger issue is that a team could give up resources for an ineligible player who is never allowed to play again. The NFL did not have to reinstate Ridley.

When they did, his 2022 guaranteed salary was bumped to 2023. I have no issues with that, but I would not allow players suspended indefinitely to be traded, nor would I allow compensation to be altered by the league’s disciplinary decisions.

In any event, I doubt anyone else gives a shit, so I’ll move on.

Ridley will be looking to recapture his 2020 form:

2020: 90 receptions, 1,374 yards, +8.0 +/-, 6.7% DVOA, 230 DYAR (in 15 games)

Ridley had some serious personal issues in 2021, so I am going to look past his poor performance in five games. Ridley has looked very good this preseason and he’ll start the season as the Jaguars’ #1WR.

Slot receiver Christian Kirk had a decent first season in Jacksonville:

2022: 84 receptions, 1,108 yards, -0.5 +/-, 4.4% DVOA, 178 DYAR

Zay Jones also enjoyed the slot premium:

2022: 82 receptions, 823 yards, +3.2 +/-, -3.4% DVOA, 89 DYAR (in 16 games)

Jones was effective from the slot (9.3% DVOA), but ineffective outside (-23.7% DVOA).

I may have mentioned this earlier, but the slot is a cheat code. It is also a limited resource.

I expect Jamal Agnew will retain the WR4 job (-4.6% DVOA, 18 DYAR).

Adding Ridley should give the Jaguars’ passing game a significant boost. He gives them a legitimate outside receiver.

#1TE Evan Engram had an excellent first season in Jacksonville:

2022: 73 receptions, 766 yards, +2.0 +/-, 7.3% DVOA, 91 DYAR

Engram developed a strong bond with Lawrence. I expect they’ll build on it this season.

2021 fifth-round pick Luke Farrell will provide depth and rookie second-round pick Brenton Strange will provide depth. Strange is a better athlete than football player. I would not have touched him until day three.

2021 first-round pick running back Travis Etienne lost his rookie season to a Lisfranc injury. He showed what he could do in 2022:

2022: 265 squid, 1,441 yards, 2.7% DVOA, 153 DYAR

Etienne flashed his explosiveness, showing he’s fully recovered. I expect good things from him this year.

Rookie third-round pick Tank Bigsby will provide depth:

Tank Bigsby: Over the past two seasons Tank had 402 carries for 1,969 yards and 20 touchdowns. Decent combine. Doesn’t hesitate in the backfield. Had more than his fair share of big plays.

My problems with Tank are two-fold. First, Auburn tried to make him a bigger part of their receiving game. It went poorly (46 targets, 30 receptions, 180 yards, -17 EPA). Second, his pass protection skills get an incomplete at best.

It’s very hard to justify using a day-two pick on a running back who brings little to the passing game. That’s before we get into his history of fumbles.

I appreciate that Tank was able to run the ball against SEC defenses. Even so, day three selection for me.

I expect the Jaguars will use Tank as a change of pace.

Left tackle Cam Robinson will be suspended for the first four games of the season due to PED usage. I hope the Jaguars adhere to the old Nascar philosophy that if you ain’t cheatin’, you ain’t tryin’. When available, he’s an above-average LT.

2021 second-round pick Walker Little will start in Robinson’s stead. Little had a poor rookie campaign. He was a bit better in limited usage last season. The Jaguars will improve when Robinson returns.

2020 fourth-round pick Ben Bartch will start at left guard. Bartch missed most of last season with a knee injury. I didn’t think he was playing well pre-injury, but he did a fine job at right guard in 2021.

Tyler Shatley did a great job after replacing Bartch. Shatley was diagnosed with an irregular heartbeat. His return is uncertain.

2022 third-round pick center Luke Fortner had a fine rookie campaign, finishing ninth in my rankings. That’s a nice start to build on.

It was an off-year for right guard Brandon Scherff. He was playing through injuries and it showed. The Jaguars are hoping he can return to form this year.

Rookie first-round pick Anton Harrison will start at right tackle:

Anton Harrison: I will tell you right now that Harrison is one of the trickiest players for me to judge in this draft. The reason is that his responsibilities at Oklahoma are quite different than his responsibilities in the NFL will be, even at the same position (left tackle).

What I can tell you is that we’re looking at a pretty good athlete with decent measurables. Harrison learned how to play fast and recognize his role in the play. In the running game, Harrison was good at getting to the spot, but he lacked the power to dominate.

I see a wide range of outcomes for Harrison. He might end up adapting well to a traditional NFL offense. Alternatively, he might not be able to offer enough power or quickness to keep elite edge-rushers off his quarterback. I need to be clear on this: Harrison’s raw power is going to remain a question until he proves he can hold his own against NFL edge-rushers.

One thing I’ll note: he managed to pick up a fair amount of flags for someone playing in an offense designed to get the ball out quickly.

This is a case where whomever drafts him should show some patience while he adapts to the pro game. I see enough upside here where he should be worth a look around the middle of round two.

I’m guessing the Jaguars are gambling on Harrison’s upside as a potential left tackle. They don’t have a lot of offensive line depth, so he’s going to learn on the fly.

Budget free-agent pickup Josh Wells will provide depth once he comes back from his hip injury. This line desperately needs the starters to stay healthy.

Over the past four seasons, the Jaguars’ defense has ranked 29^th, 31^st, 31^st, and 26^th in DVOA. A weak pass-rush combined with poor coverage is a terrible combination.

2022 first-overall pick edge-rusher Travon Walker managed 3.5 sacks and 21 hits+hurries. Walker only had 9.5 sacks in college. Second-overall pick Aidan Hutchinson had 9.5 sacks and 41 hits+hurries for the Lions. I noted before the draft that I wouldn’t select Walker in the top 10. I can only hope that he works out for Jacksonville.

Walker will start across from Josh Allen (seven sacks, 61 hits+hurries). After that, things get a little tricky.

I’m expecting 2020 first-round pick K’Lavon Chaisson, 2021 fourth-round pick Jordan Smith, and rookie fifth-round pick Yasir Abdullah to provide depth.

Chaisson only has three sacks in three seasons. The Jaguars declined his fifth-year option. Smith has only played in two games for the Jaguars. Abdullah is undersized and likely will need time to develop.

Dawuane Smoot had five sacks (20 hits+hurries) last season, but he’s still recovering from an Achilles tear. He’s on the PUP list.

It’s not all bad news. Defensive lineman Roy Robertson-Harris (three sacks, 27 hits+hurries) and nose tackle Davon Hamilton were solid against the run. Folorunso Fatukasi did a fine job against the run as well.

Free-agent pickups Adam Gotsis and rookie fourth-round pick Tyler Lacy will provide depth at end. Rookie seventh-round pick Raymond Vahosek will provide depth at nose.

2022 first-round pick inside linebacker Devin Lloyd will again pair with Foyesade Oluokun. Lloyd started the season on fire, with two interceptions and 49 tackles in his first five games. He regressed quite a bit after that. I have hope that with a full season of development, Lloyd can become an impact player.

Oluokun had another excellent season, leading the league in tackles for the second straight year. He’s also solid in coverage. If Lloyd improves in his second season, this could be an elite pairing.

The Jaguars’ secondary is in a weird spot. 2021 second-round pick Tyson Campbell took a leap last season. He had a rough rookie campaign, but bounced back with a vengeance in 2022. Campbell had three interceptions and great coverage numbers.

Darius Williams was supposed to cover the slot. That didn’t work out. He moved outside, which worked out very well. He’ll start across from Campbell.

So, with two quality cornerbacks, what’s the problem? Well, there’s the issue of receivers/tight ends in the slot. They didn’t have anyone who could cover them, and I’m not sure that’s changed.

Tre Hemdon is going to get first crack at the job. I am skeptical he’ll be able to manage it.

2022 sixth-round pick Gregory Junior is another option. We haven’t seen much from him, though.

Rookie sixth-round pick Christian Braswell did some nice work at Rutgers. He might earn a look if he impresses in practice.

The Jaguars look set at safety. 2021 third-round pick free safety Andre Cisco played quite well last season. So did strong safety Rayshawn Jenkins. It’s a good pairing, albeit one that has a tendency to line up a little far off the line of scrimmage.

Rookie fifth-round pick Antonio Johnson will provide depth:

Antonio Johnson: Mix of a box safety and a nickel cornerback. Not going to sell himself with these combine results.

Johnson’s best trait might be his versatility. He has the skills to cover the slot, but can be deep or attack the line of scrimmage. I wouldn’t think of him as a nickelback with elite power against the run. He only had one interception in his collegiate career. He might get exposed if forced to regularly match up with NFL slot receivers.

As a box safety, Johnson enjoys delivering big hits. That’s a trait teams would like to keep while cleaning up his tackling technique.

Johnson is still learning how to play safety. I should probably cut him a bit of slack, as there’s some upside here. I’d definitely take Battle over Johnson. Once Battle is gone, I’d consider Johnson early in the third round.

It wouldn’t shock me if Johnson ended up getting some looks in the nickel.

The Jaguars have a lot of good pieces of a defense, but somehow the whole has failed to produce. Part of the problem is they haven’t gotten enough sacks. Their pass rush looks weak. That puts too much pressure on the secondary. I expect that to continue this season.

Logan Cooke is a good punter. Jamal Agnew is a solid return man. He’ll be backed up by rookie sixth-round pick Parker Washington. Kicker Brandon McManus is in a training camp battle against James McCourt. McCourt showed he could hit from distance at Illinois. McManus has shown the same in the NFL. Either should do a reasonable job.

The Jaguars tanked themselves into a franchise quarterback. That should be enough to win a weak AFC South. The offense could be more explosive with the addition of Ridley. The defense still looks soft, though. A weak pass rush is an opposing quarterback’s best friend. Five wins against the AFC South is an easy path toward ten wins, but then what? 10-7.

Tennessee Titans:

2022 Record: 7-10

Projections:

Scouting Wins: 6.71

DVOA Wins: 7.4

FPI Wins: 7.5

Market Wins: 7.49

Implied Pythag: 39.95%

In a league with relegation, I’d understand the Titans’ plan. Shoot for seven wins, avoid getting sent down. But this is the NFL. Mediocrity is punished. And yet, the Titans are neither contenders nor rebuilding. They’re clearly trying to win, but… will they?

For example, they signed Deandre Hopkins to be their #1WR:

2020: 115 receptions, 1,407 yards, +9.1 +/-, 3.4% DVOA, 207 DYAR

2021: 42 receptions, 572 yards, +7.6 +/-, 23.9% DVOA, 191 DYAR (in 10 games)

2022: 64 receptions, 717 yards, +3.8 +/-, -11.2% DVOA, 11 DYAR (in 9 games)

He missed the first six games of 2022 with a PED suspension. Hopkins turned 31 in June. With the NFL watching him, I’m not sure he’ll still have the juice to stretch the field. I’m skeptical he’s worth the money the Titans are paying him.

Hopkins will line up across from 2022 first-round pick Treylon Burks:

2022: 33 receptions, 444 yards, -2.8 +/-, -6.6% DVOA, 25 DYAR (in 11 games)

Toe and head injuries limited Burks to 11 games. When he played he was… meh. I strongly disliked Burks heading into the draft and I felt bad for the Titans when they took him. I don’t think he has the athleticism you want in the NFL.

2022 fifth-round pick Kyle Phillips is getting a look at the slot job, but he has been slowed by knee injuries. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine might be again thrust into the spotlight:

2022: 25 receptions, 397 yards, -3.1 +/-, -7.3 DVOA, 21 DYAR

2022 fourth-round pick tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo has earned the starting job:

2022: 32 receptions, 450 yards, -0.4 +/-, 20.2% DVOA, 82 DYAR

It was an impressive rookie campaign.

Budget free-agent pickup Trevon Wesco is a blocking tight end. Rookie fifth-round pick Josh Whyle will provide depth as he develops.

Even monsters like Derrick Henry wear down:

2020: 409 squid, 2,141 yards, 10.3% DVOA, 311 DYAR

2021: 239 squid, 1,091 yards, 4.3% DVOA, 144 DYAR (in eight games)

2022: 390 squid, 1,936 yards, -1.8% DVOA, 139 DYAR

There are rumors the Titans were trying to trade Henry, but if so, there were no takers. For now, Henry will get the bulk of the carries.

Rookie third-round pick Tyjae Spears will provide depth:

Tyjae Spears: Productive at Tulane last season (258 squid, 1,837 yards-from-scrimmage, 21 TD, 43 EPA). Lacks prototype size or athleticism. It’s not clear what he will do to help an offense in the passing game. His receiving skills are still fairly basic. He doesn’t have much power in pass protection.

Spears is a decisive runner who makes his cut and goes. His film was fun to watch in that respect.

He tore his ACL in 2020. It looked like he was fully recovered, but the medical staffs would know more.

It’s a pretty big step up in competition from Tulane to the NFL. While Spears looked fast vs. AAC defenses, that won’t be the case in the NFL. I’m not seeing anything from him that would justify a day-two pick.

I suppose I should note that the Titans did not have an NFL-level left tackle last year. Taylor Lewan suffered a season-ending knee injury in week two. He was clearly playing through pain before he went down. Backup Dennis Daley was completely overmatched.

Daley has been replaced by free-agent pickup Andre Dillard. Dillard couldn’t crack the starting lineup in Philadelphia. When we saw him play in relief, he looked terrible. I’m a bit concerned here.

Rookie first-round pick Peter Skoronski will start at left guard:

Peter Skoronski: 32.25. Remember that number because it’s the one black mark on Skoronski’s profile. I’ll explain shortly. First, let me share why I love him as a prospect.

Skoronski won numerous accolades at Northwestern, including being a unanimous All-American and Big Ten OL of the year in 2022. I’ll note that Paris Johnson Jr. also played in the Big 10.

Skoronski has an excellent mix of power and technique. If he doesn’t win on initial contact, he’s very good at resetting his anchor and moving the defender away from the pocket. He’s an effective run blocker, particularly in the second level, where he moves much better than you’d expect for a man his size. Feasts on easily predictable edge rushers.

The fact is, no offensive lineman in college football was more effective at protecting the quarterback in 2022. Skoronski’s college numbers were near impeccable. The only real flaw might be penalties (two holding calls, three false starts).

The issue is, that was college. He could get away with having 32.25 inch arms. That’s well below what many teams have as their desired length at left tackle. As such, he may end up being forced to move inside. Lack of college film at the position aside, Skoronski would easily be considered the top guard in this year’s class.

A few years ago Teven Jenkins tried to make it at tackle in Chicago with 33.5 inch arms. It didn’t work out. This list of offensive linemen and their arm lengths is a bit dated. Having said that, it shows how rare it is to succeed at tackle with sub-34 inch arms. Sub 32.5 would be unprecedented.

There’s much more demand for elite offensive tackles than there is for elite guards. I expect wherever Skoronski lands, he’ll get a shot to prove himself outside. If he can’t hack it, his floor is (presumably) an elite interior lineman. I think Skoronski is worth a pick in the back half of the top ten. We’ll see what the NFL thinks.

(Editor’s note: If Skoronski does move inside, cut him a little slack, as there will be a learning curve as he adapts to his new position.)

Aaron Brewer will start at center. He played both left guard and center last season. Not very well, though.

2021 second-round pick right guard Dillon Radunz is coming back from a torn ACL. He committed five penalties in 280 snaps last season. League average is roughly one penalty every 213 snaps. Not great, Dillon.

2022 third-round pick Nicholas Petit-Frere is suspended for six games for gambling. He was truly awful last season. I can only hope he has learned from his many mistakes.

Free-agent pickup Daniel Brunskill will start at right tackle while Petit-Frere is suspended. He did not play tackle last season. I will say he did a fine job at guard, so there is hope.

Rookie sixth-round pick Jaelyn Duncan will provide depth:

Jaelyn Duncan: Four years of experience at Maryland. Solid athlete. Sub-34 inch arms will be a concern for some teams. Another will be his film. Duncan mostly held his own in college, but the tape suggests he does not have enough power to play outside in the NFL. Frankly, physically his best fit might be at center.

I rarely talk about “motor.” Duncan’s play has concerned scouts and coaches alike. He does not appear to provide consistent effort every play. And then there’s the penalties. Duncan averaged 0.80 flags per game over his final two seasons. That is very, very, very bad.

When given the opportunity to show his talent against elite competition, Duncan gave up an average of two sacks per game (vs. Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State).

I don’t like Duncan as a prospect. To be fair, he’s still learning the game, having picked it up in high school. He’ll turn 23 in July. Perhaps he has real upside in the interior of the line. I wouldn’t touch him until day three.

I have to say, this offensive line will be interesting to watch. As for who it will be protecting…

Quarterback #1: Ryan Tannehill:

2022: 2,536 yards, 13 TD, 6 INT, 6.4 NY/P, 4.3% DVOA, 378 DYAR (in 12 games)

Tannehill turned 35 in July. He probably gives the Titans their best chance to win.

Quarterback #2: 2022 third-round pick Malik Willis:

2022: 276 yards, 0 TD, 3 INT, 3.2 NY/P, -67.6% DVOA, -249 DYAR (in eight games)

Rough way to start a career. Willis has looked much better this preseason, but interceptions have continued to haunt him.

Quarterback #3: Rookie second-round pick Will Levis:

Will Levis: Looks the part. Tremendous arm strength. Quick release. Showed off impressive mobility in 2021:

2021: 233 completions, 2,827 yards, 24 TD, 13 INT, 10.3 passing EPA, 84 carries, 513 yards, 37.6 rushing EPA (in 13 games)

Levis played through a foot injury, with an underwhelming supporting cast in 2022:

2022: 185 completions, 2,406 yards, 19 TD, 10 INT, -1.3 passing EPA, 37 carries, 123 yards, -0.3 rushing EPA (in 11 games)

I don’t want to compare Levis’ college efficiency to that of Stroud or Young, as he didn’t have the same kind of advantage over the opposition on a weekly basis. I’m more concerned about his accuracy and his mechanics.

For a guy with a rocket arm, Levis underthrew more than his fair share of deep balls. The culprit was his poor footwork. This is fixable, but it will take time and reps.

For short-to-intermediate passes, Levis needs to hit his targets. Too many of his passes forced his receivers to adjust and robbed them of YAC.

Without knowing what his coaches were asking him to do, it’s tough to accurately gauge Levis’s decision-making. I can tell you there were a lot of plays where he locked onto his #1 target and didn’t go through his progressions. And then there were plays where he did go through his progressions, but too slowly to beat the defense.

I don’t want to come off too harsh on Levis. He had some beautiful deep balls that few NFL quarterbacks could match. When his mechanics were sound, his sideline throws were very hard to defend. There’s serious upside here. But Levis has to be regarded as a project. His mechanics need fixing. His play recognition skills need work. He’s not as polished a prospect as either Young or Stroud.

We’ve seen toolsy quarterback prospects blossom with proper coaching in the NFL (Josh Allen, Justin Herbert). Levis might join them. Then again, he might not. Accuracy is a tricky thing to fix. So is processing speed. There’s no way I’m taking Levis over Stroud. If I have the stomach to gamble, I want Richardson. If I want a more polished prospect, Young. Levis, who will turn 24 in June, is my QB4.

Levis has missed time this preseason with a thigh injury. The Titans probably want to see if he’s their quarterback of the future, but he also might be best served spending a year developing behind the scenes before he’s thrown out to the wolves.

Tannehill is the starter. I suspect it’s a matter of time before the Titans look to the future. Willis might currently be better prepared to start than Levis. I’d like to see what Willis could do if given a second chance.

Star defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons had 5.5 sacks in the Titans’ first seven games. Injuries slowed him after that and he finished with 7.5 sacks (41 hits+hurries). Simmons will line up across from defensive end Denico Autry (eight sacks, 40 hit+hurries). Nose tackle Teair Tart will return in between them.

Budget free-agent pickup Jaleel Johnson and Naquan Jones will provide depth.

Edge-rusher Harold Landry missed last season with torn ACL. He had 12 sacks and 47 hits+hurries in 2021. Landry will line up across from free-agent pickup Arden Key (4.5 sacks, 27 hits+hurries).

2021 fourth-round pick Rashad Weaver (5.5 sacks, 38 hits+hurries) and Sam Okuayinonu will provide depth. Okuayinonu is a converted defensive lineman and will probably be better at holding the edge than rushing the passer.

The Titans don’t have a deep linebacker corps. 2022 undrafted free-agent Jack Gibbens will pair with budget free-agent pickup Azeez Al-Shaair. I expect we’ll see 2021 third-round pick Monty Rice play quite a bit as well. Rice missed time with an Achilles injury. I see him as having more upside than Gibbens does.

I should note that the Titans’ front-seven is pretty solid against the run. They have a bit more beef, particularly at edge, than most teams.

2020 second-round pick #1CB Kristian Fulton has been good when healthy/available. He missed ten games as a rookie, four games in 2021, and six games last season. It’s hard to count on him to play a full season.

Fulton will start across from either free-agent pickup Sean Murphy-Bunting. I am not sure I love Bunting in a starting role, but the Titans have limited options.

2022 second-round pick Roger McCreary will play as the nickelback in the slot. McCreary ran out of gas late in the season. I expect he’ll be in better condition this year. I am a little skeptical that his skills will transition well inside. Without the sideline as an additional defender, you need good route awareness. That hasn’t been one of his strengths.

2021 third-round pick Elijah Molden would be a great option if he were healthy. A very serious groin injury sidelined him for almost all of 2022. His return would give the Titans some real depth at either cornerback or free safety.

Amani Hooker and Kevin Byard will start at safety. Byard played very well last season, snagging four interceptions. Injuries, including concussion issues, limited Hooker to nine games last season. The Titans will need both Byard and Hooker to stay healthy, as they have no discernible depth here.

2022 undrafted free-agent punter Ryan Stonehouse averaged 53.1 yards-per-punt. That Broke Sammy Baugh’s record from 1940 (51.4). Stonehouse also has the collegiate record (47.8). The dude has a booming leg. The Titans’ coverage team might appreciate a bit more hang time, though.

The Titans are currently scouring free agency to find a kicker. I wish them best of luck.

I expect Kyle Phillips to return punts and Julius Chestnut to return kicks. Rookie third-round pick Tyjae Spears might also get a look. My expectations here are pretty low.

The Titans feel like a team too proud to admit they are rebuilding. Their depth is shaky AF. I don’t love their receiver corps or their offensive line. I expect attrition to murder their defense. The only thing stopping me from predicting collapse is my respect for head coach Mike Vrabel. I expect he’ll get the guys he has healthy ready to play. Well, that, and the fact they play in the AFC South. The schedule is quite reasonable. Last year 7-10 was a disappointment. This year 8-9 is an accomplishment. 8-9.

2023 NFL Preview: AFC West

September 6, 2023

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AFC West:

Kansas City Chiefs: 12-5

Las Angeles Chargers: 10-7

Denver Broncos: 7-10

Las Vegas Raiders: 6-11

Denver Broncos:

2022 Record: 5-12

Projections:

Scouting Wins: 7.39

DVOA Wins: 7.4

FPI Wins: 8.45

Market Wins: 8.29

Implied Pythag: 51.93%

From my 2022 NFL Preview:

“Embrace the variance, Broncos fans. Glib, I know. It’s what the team signed up for when they traded for quarterback Russell Wilson. On the plus side, it will be nice to have a deep passing attack in Denver again.”

Welp! Variance embraced:

2019: 4,110 yards, 31 TD, 5 INT, 6.8 NY/P, 24.3% DVOA, 1,298 DYAR

2020: 4,212 yards, 40 TD, 13 INT, 6.4 NY/P, 8.1% DVOA, 872 DYAR

2021: 3,113 yards, 25 TD, 6 INT, 6.6 NY/P, 7.5% DVOA, 525 DYAR (in 14 games)

2022: 3,524 yards, 16 TD, 11 INT, 5.9 NY/P, -15.2% DVOA, -76 DYAR (in 15 games)

The Broncos gave up two first-round picks, two second-round picks, and some players to acquire a below replacement-level quarterback. Brutal.

As part of the deal, the Broncos and Wilson agreed to a new contract extension:

“Wilson agreed to terms on a five-year extension with the Denver Broncos through the 2028 season, the team announced Thursday. Wilson’s new deal is worth $245 million and includes $165 million guaranteed, NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport reported, per sources. The quarterback had two seasons remaining on his deal signed in Seattle, so the extension ties him to Denver for the next seven years.”

The Broncos made a serious commitment to Wilson. He will turn 35 in December.

Now, I don’t want to make this sound hopeless. The Broncos are replacing an incompetent coach with an excellent one. Going from Nathaniel Hackett to Sean Payton is a very good change. Look for the Broncos to lean on the things Wilson can still do well (deep balls, improvisation), and try to protect him from his weaknesses. Wilson will need to do a better job of working with his protection. Of course, better protection, in and of itself, would be a boon.

2020 first-round pick wide receiver Jerry Jeudy is coming off of his best season:

2022: 67 receptions, 972 yards, +3.2 +/-, 170% DVOA, 232 DYAR (in 15 games)

Jeudy injured his hamstring and will likely miss a few games.

(Update: The prognosis is slightly improved for Jeudy. He’s still not practicing, but might be available early in the season.)

The hope was that deep threat Courtland Sutton would mesh well with Wilson. It didn’t work out that way:

2021: 58 receptions, 776 yards, +3.0 +/-, 3.7% DVOA, 131 DYAR

2022: 64 receptions, 829 yards, -2.7 +/-, -1.8% DVOA, 93 DYAR (in 15 games)

That’s not the worst statline. Perhaps coach Payton will figure out a way to unlock Sutton’s potential.

Jeudy and Sutton will be joined by rookie second-round pick Marvin Mims:

Marvin Mims Jr.: Sub-4.4 speed. Worked primarily from the slot in 2020 and 2021. Worked mostly outside in 2022:

2020-21: 91 targets, 69 receptions, 1,315 yards, 14 TD’s, 72.7 EPA

2022: 90 targets, 54 receptions, 1,083 yards, 6 TD’s, 28.2 EPA

In this particular case, I don’t want to overstate the slot usage here. Part of the reason for the efficiency drop-off was tougher coverage. Right now, Mims projects as a #3WR working out of the slot. The hope is that he’ll develop the route-running skills to work outside as a #2WR deep threat.

Mims did a decent job returning punts. NFL teams might be leery of using him in this role until he proves there won’t be an issue with muffs/fumbles.

My concern with Mims is that he’ll struggle against NFL physicality in press coverage. If he faces a cornerback with the speed to stick with him, Mims doesn’t have the route-running skills to create separation.

I don’t have a lot of faith in speedsters with small hands making the adjustment to the next level. Mims will likely come off the board in round three. I just hope he isn’t heading to NY.

Budget free-agent pickup Marquez Callaway will provide depth. Note: He’s a former Saint.

2022 third-round pick Greg Dulcich is competing with Adam Trautman for the #1TE job. The Broncos traded with the Saints to acquire Trautman:

2022: 18 receptions, 207 yards, +1.5 +/-, 22.7% DVOA, 43 DYAR (in 15 games)

Trautman is the better blocker, but Dulcich has a higher ceiling as a receiver:

2022: 33 receptions, 411 yards, +0.6 +/-, -3.8% DVOA, 12 DYAR (in 10 games)

Dulcich was slowed by hamstring injuries. If healthy, he could be looking at a breakout season.

2021 second-round pick JaVonte Williams had a rough year:

2021: 256 squid, 1,219 yards, -5.9% DVOA, 46 DYAR

2022: 69 squid, 180 yards, -22.5% DVOA, -40 DYAR (in four games)

Williams tore his ACL, cutting his season short. He should be healthy by week one.

Free-agent pick Samaje Perine will provide depth:

2022: 146 squid, 681 yards, 10.6% DVOA, 137 DYAR (in 16 games)

I expect Perine to carry a decent amount of the load.

Left tackle Garrett Bolles was a first-round pick back in 2017. He didn’t have a great first three seasons, so the Broncos declined his fifth-year option. He then played his finest season in 2020 and made All-Pro. That earned him a new deal with $21M guaranteed. After that, he was mediocre in 2021. He was awful in the first five games of 2022. Bolles then suffered a broken leg and missed the rest of the season. The Broncos are desperately hoping Bolles can stay healthy and recapture his 2020 form.

Premium free-agent pickup left guard Ben Powers finished first in my positional rankings. Hold the celebration. If you were to design a player to game my ratings, it’s Powers. He’s very good at not giving up pressure while avoiding penalties. But… he’s a lousy run blocker, with difficulty connecting at the second level. I like the signing. I just want to keep things in perspective.

2020 third-round pick center Lloyd Cushenberry has not impressed me. He was lousy in 2021. He was no better in 2022 before a groin injury sidelined him. He’s now in a contract year and will try to prove he should keep his job.

2021 third-round pick right guard Quinn Meinerz was just a bit below league-average last season. That was an improvement over his rookie performance.

Premium free-agent pickup right tackle Mike McGlinchey finished 11^th in my positional rankings. He’s a mauler in the running game and should give the Broncos a boost.

Free-agent pickup Cam Fleming and rookie seventh-round pick Adam Forsyth will provide depth:

Alex Forsyth: Dude has no hops. I jest. Forsyth injured his hamstring doing the vertical jump and couldn’t run the rest of the drills.

Made the Pac-12 first-team. I’m not sure how strong the competition was. Forsyth didn’t have the lower body strength to drive defenders out of the spot. It also limited his ability to anchor. Forsyth is a technician who might not have the power to start in the NFL.

Forsyth turned 24 in February. I don’t see the upside here. Late day three value. Sorry Alex.

With the departures of Dre’Mont Jones (6.5 sacks, 31 hits+hurries) and DeShawn Williams (4.5 sacks, 17 hits+hurries), the Broncos’ defensive line is going to look a little different this year. I’m confident that free-agent pickup Zach Allen (5.5 sacks, 41 hits+hurries) will start. After that, look for a rotation of Jonathan Harris, D.J. Jones, and Mike Purcell. Elijah Garcia will provide depth.

2021 third-round pick edge-rusher Baron Browning (five sacks, 28 hits+hurries) is on the PUP list with a knee injury. The Broncos hope to get him back later this year.

With Browning out, look for Randy Gregory to start across from free-agent pickup Frank Clark (five sacks, 43 hits+hurries). Gregory had two sacks in four games before a knee injury sidelined him for most of last season.

2022 second-round pick Nik Bonitto (1.5 sacks, 12 hits+hurries) and 2021 seventh-round pick Jonathon Cooper (two sacks, 18 hits+hurries) will provide depth.

Inside linebacker Josey Jewell missed four games last season. He was excellent when available. He’ll be paired with Alex Singleton. Singleton has proven to be a reliable second-level defender, producing 163 tackles last season. His coverage numbers were reasonable as well.

Rookie third-round pick Drew Sanders will provide depth:

Drew Sanders: I’m going to tell you right now that Sanders looked much more athletic on film than he tested at his pro day. Sanders didn’t test at the combine.

Sanders began his collegiate career at Alabama, where he saw limited action. He transferred to Arkansas before the 2022 season and had a monster year (9.5 sacks, 103 tackles, one interception), earning First Team All-SEC and unanimous All-American awards. He did that as an off-ball linebacker who regularly rushed the passer. His pass rush skills are going to need refinement. It’s a nice bonus that he can play on or off the line of scrimmage, and even move inside if need be.

His pass coverage skills are a work in progress. Right now, he can cover the flat. He can read and react in a zone position, but don’t expect him to do much tracking before the ball is in flight. Realistically, his best usage is attacking the line of scrimmage.

He’s still learning to diagnose his responsibilities in the running game. He’s flashed great athleticism, shooting into the backfield and shutting plays down. However, he’s also misread the play and run himself out of position. The dude will need plenty of reps before he can be trusted in space.

Right now I see Sanders as a pass-rusher with upside. I need to tell you that his good plays looked gooooood. You could see why he was considered an elite athletic prospect coming out of high school. It’s unclear if his coaches will want him to bulk up and become more of a traditional Mike linebacker, or if his future is as a pass-rush OLB. I see a late first-round value.

I guess the NFL is uninterested in athletic freaks and doesn’t trust the film. I expect Sanders will prove to be a good selection for the Broncos.

2021 first-round pick Patrick Surtain is one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL.

2022 fourth-round pick Demarri Mathis had a rough first start (four DPI penalties!) Things got better after that and he looks to have locked down the CB2 job.

Nickelback K’Waun Williams is sidelined by an ankle injury that will cost him roughly half of the season.

Rookie third-round pick Riley Moss would face quite an adjustment if he gets thrust into the starting lineup:

Moss doesn’t quite have the burst that his combine suggests. He might be best in off-man or zone where he can use his read and react skills. He’s also an excellent ballhawk (but not a gambler).

There’s been some talk about moving him to free safety. At Iowa, his run support was merely okay. He didn’t take great angles and his stopping power is no better than mediocre by safety standards.

Whether as a zone specialist or as a free safety, my best guess is that Moss will mostly play facing the line of scrimmage, and not with his back turned in man-to-man coverage. He was the 2021 Big Ten defensive back of the year. My sense is that Moss is being underrated for… reasons. I think he’s a third-round value and would love him late in the third or early in the fourth round.

If Moss starts, Denver will need to try to keep him out of man coverage, as he simply hasn’t been trained for it.

Free-agent pickup Tremon Smith has played mostly on special teams. He was added for depth. The Broncos might have to play him while Williams recovers.

Free safety Justin Simmons had six interceptions last season. The last Denver safety to have that many? Tyrone Braxton, who had nine in 1996. Simmons only played in twelve games, though. The Broncos would love to get a full season from him.

2021 fifth-round pick Caden Stearns is competing with Kareem Jackson for the strong safety job. Stearns had two interceptions in five games last season and looks to offer more upside. Jackson is a seasoned veteran. He turned 35 in April and is little more than a competent veteran with diminishing range.

The Broncos have rebuilt their special teams units. Wil Lutz is the new kicker. Riley Dixon is back after stints with the Giants and Rams. Dixon should be fine. Lutz has missed time with injuries. He did some nice work with the Saints a few years ago.

Rookie Marvin Mims is taking over both return jobs. He’ll be an upgrade over the previous gentlemen.

I think head coach Sean Payton will eventually be able to turn the Broncos back into a playoff team. I don’t expect that to happen right away. I’ve lost faith in Russell Wilson. The wide receiver corps has issues if Jeudy is hurt. I am worried about multiple spots on the offensive line.

Defensively, the pass rush lacks depth. There’s also some depth issues in the secondary. There’s also a lot to like about the defense, with Surtain and Simmons. I expect the Broncos will be respectable. The schedule is tough, though. I expect another rough year. 7-10.

Kansas City Chiefs:

2022 Record: 14-3

Projections:

Scouting Wins: 10.57

DVOA Wins: 10.9

FPI Wins: 10.7

Market Wins: 11.59

Implied Pythag: 73.21%

The GOAT in his prime:

2019: 4,031 yards, 26 TD, 5 INT, 7.8 NY/P, 30.0% DVOA, 1,386 DYAR (in 14 games)

2020: 4,740 yards, 38 TD, 6 INT, 7.5 NY/P, 31.7% DVOA, 1,764 DYAR (in 15 games)

2021: 4,839 yards, 37 TD, 13 INT, 6.8 NY/P, 18.6% DVOA, 1,452 DYAR

2022: 5,250 yards, 41 TD, 12 INT, 7.5 NY/P, 26.5% DVOA, 1,847 DYAR

I thought the loss of Tyreek Hill might have weakened the offense. Instead, Patrick Mahomes became less predictable, spreading the targets around. He’ll have to do the same this year. Let’s see the receiver corps he’ll be working with.

Not counting tight end Travis Kelce, wide receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling is the Chiefs’ top returning receiver by volume:

2022: 42 receptions, 687 yards, -5.0 +/-, -1.4% DVOA, 73 DYAR

Scantling is generally used as a deep threat. He didn’t have the skills to match the departed Tyreek Hill.

The Chiefs traded for NYG 2021 first-round pick Kadarius Toney:

2022: 16 receptions, 171 yards, +1.5 +/-, 14.2% DVOA, 44 DYAR (in nine games)

Toney is currently slowed by a knee injury. He’ll be expected to play a larger role in the Chiefs’ offense this year.

2022 second-round pick Skyy Moore had an unimpressive rookie campaign:

2022: 22 receptions, 250 yards, -0.7 +/-, 1.5% DVOA, 37 DYAR (in 16 games)

Rookie second-round pick Rashee Rice will also be in the mix:

Rashee Rice: Let me be explicit and say I don’t think NFL teams will view this set of numbers and see the kind of elite athlete that an overall grade of 9.53 would suggest. Additionally, I might be on an island in giving Rice a second-round grade. Let’s review his 2021 and 2022 seasons.

In 2021 Rice had 65 receptions for 684 yards, 9 TD’s, and 28.6 EPA on 83 targets. He was working primarily short out of the slot with an ADOT of 6.5.

In 2022 his usage exploded, as he had 96 receptions for 1,353 yards, 10 TDs, and 34.6 EPA on 157 targets. He worked further downfield, with an ADOT of 10.6. He worked both from the slot and outside. There’s one other thing I should point out. In 2021 Rice only had one drop. In 2022 he had eight. Not good.

At SMU, Rice ran a simplified route tree. That’s not to say he couldn’t run a complete route tree. It just wasn’t asked of him. It’s something he’ll need to work on and develop.

Rice is a pretty good run-blocker. He impressed me with his ability to make quick reads when his responsibility wasn’t clear at the snap. Having said that, his backside blocking was laughable. Coaches will fix that flaw in his game.

The main question for Rice is whether or not he’ll be able to create separation in the NFL. He’ll be facing much tougher coverage than he faced at SMU. I’m confident that his explosiveness off the line will allow him to be a productive short-range target. Does he have the speed and route-running skill to be more than that? My best guess is that he can. I think he can cut down on his drops. His arm length and hand size should allow him to present his quarterback with a solid target. I don’t expect Rice to come off the board until round three. I expect he’ll be a solid value there.

Budget free-agent pickup Richie James may push for playing time:

2022: 57 receptions, 569 yards, +8.8 +/-, 12.2% DVOA, 128 DYAR

I have a ton of faith in head coach Andy Reid and quarterback Patrick Mahomes. On another roster, this receiver corps might give me pause.

The previously mentioned Travis Kelce will be Mahomes’s #1 target:

2020: 105 receptions, 1,416 yards, +8.9 +/-, 35.7% DVOA, 415 DYAR (in 15 games)

2021: 92 receptions, 1,125 yards, +2.1 +/-, 21.2% DVOA, 257 DYAR (in 16 games)

2022: 110 receptions, 1,338 yards, +7.8 +/-, 15.2% DVOA, 248 DYAR

Kelce is great, but it’s hard for me to ignore his efficiency drifting back to earth. Kelce will turn 34 in October…

(Update: Kelce hyperextended his knee in practice and is questionable for the Chiefs opener.)

2021 fifth-round pick Noah Gray will provide depth:

2022: 28 receptions, 299 yards, +2.3 +/-, 21.7% DVOA, 66 DYAR

2022 seventh-round pick Isiah Pacheco played through pain:

2022: 184 squid, 960 yards, 10.8% DVOA, 189 DYAR

I’m looking forward to seeing what he can do when healthy.

Jerick McKinnon will also see some playing time:

2022: 143 squid, 803 yards, 10.7% DVOA, 194 DYAR

McKinnon was notably more effective as a receiver than as a rusher.

2020 first-round pick Clyde Edwards-Helaire will provide depth:

2022: 94 squid, 453 yards, 10.7% DVOA, 116 DYAR (in ten games)

Like McKinnon, CEH was more useful as a receiver.

The Chiefs lost left tackle Orlando Brown to free agency. He’s been replaced by Donovan Smith. The respective contracts suggest this is a major downgrade. I think the Chiefs should be fine, though. Smith is a pretty good blocker apart from a small issue with penalties. The Chiefs can live with that if he keeps Mahomes safe.

Left guard Joe Thuney finished seventh in my rankings. Nice work, Joe.

2021 second-round pick center Creed Humphrey was solid. He had an exceptional rookie campaign and seems like he’ll be a reliable staple on the line for years to come.

2021 sixth-round pick Trey Smith struggled as a rookie, and he struggled last season. This is an area where the Chiefs could upgrade, but the resources, they are limited.

The Chiefs lost right tackle Andrew Wylie to free agency. He’s been replaced by Jawaan Taylor. The respective contracts say this is an upgrade. I’d agree with that. Taylor finished third in my rankings. Wylie finished outside of the top 32. Major upgrade.

I find it amusing that the Chiefs gave a huge contract (four years, $80M, $40M guaranteed) to their right tackle, while their left tackle is on a one-year, $3M deal.

2020 third-round pick Lucas Niang will provide depth.

All-Pro defensive tackle Chris Jones is coming off of another monster season (15.5 sacks, 57 hits+hurries). Jones is in the final year of his contract and would like a lucrative extension. The Chiefs have been reluctant to meet his demands. He’s been placed on the DNR (did not report) list. He’s claimed he’s willing to sit out until week eight, which is the cutoff for this season counting for free agency purposes.

If that happens, his holdout would cost Jones over $12M. That’s real money. It would also cost the Chiefs the services of their best defensive player. As a Jets fan, I wouldn’t mind if Jones took October 1^st off. That’s not a great outcome for the Chiefs, though.

Jones isn’t the only defensive lineman the Chiefs are missing. Free-agent pickup defensive end Charles Omenihu (4.5 sacks, 27 hits+hurries) is suspended for six games due to violating the NFL’s personal conduct policy. Because the NFL cares about domestic violence.

It’s “next man up” for the Chiefs right now. 2022 first-round pick defensive end George Karlaftis (six sacks, 30 hits+hurries) will line up across from rookie first-round pick Felix Anudike-Uzomah:

Felix Anudike-Uzomah: 19.5 sacks in his final 27 games at Kansas State. Felix has a tremendous bag of pass-rush tricks. Really fun to watch.

What he doesn’t have is the raw power to be an effective run defender. And possibly not enough power for his pass-rush skills to translate to the NFL. Felix bulked up quite a bit in college and may be maxed out.

I see him as a potential pass-rush specialist who will need to develop the rest of his game. I like the fact that he appears to have great football instincts for how to win in the trenches. Sometimes you can be a good run defender by shutting the play down in the backfield.

This is a case where a player not being able to run at the combine or his pro day adds an air of mystery to his profile. I can say he looked like a good athlete. Just perhaps a tad undersized by NFL standards. I’d be comfortable taking Felix outside of the top 40.

2020 fifth-round pick Mike Danna (five sacks, 19 hits+hurries) will see significant playing time. He’s been slowed by a calf strain this preseason.

Rookie fifth-round pick BJ Thompson might get some snaps as well. Thomson is a great athlete. It’s a huge jump from Stephen F. Austin. I feel like Thomson is a project, but the Chiefs need bodies, so he might get tossed out there.

With Chris Jones out, I’m not sure who will start alongside defensive tackle Derrick Nnadi. Tershawn Wharton is one theoretical option. He missed most of last season with a torn ACL. Wharton has six sacks and 64 tackles in 38 games with the Chiefs. Unfortunately, his knee is still giving him some problems and he might not be available.

Rookie sixth-round pick Keondre Coburn is another option. Coburn is a space-eater who might be able to push the pocket.

Finally, there is budget free-agent pickup Matt Dickerson. Dickerson is a journeyman with 27 career tackles in 24 games. No sacks (LOL).

This defensive line is going to miss Jones when he’s out.

The linebacker corps is led by 2020 second-round pick Willie Gay and 2021 second-round pick Nick Bolton. They are an athletic pair. Bolton has had some issues with pass coverage. Otherwise, the dude makes a ton of plays. Gay finally started living up to his draft status last season.

2022 third-round pick Leo Chenal clearly had a lot to learn. He’ll compete with free-agent pickup Drue Tranquill for playing time. With Tranquill in the fold, the Chiefs have some decent depth here.

2020 fourth-round pick L’Jarius Sneed has developed into a quality cornerback. Three interceptions, solid coverage, and impressive tackling skills make for a well-rounded player.

2022 first-round pick Trent McDuffie missed six games last season. When healthy, he looked great. McDuffie looks like he’ll develop into an impact player.

2022 seventh-round pick had a great rookie campaign if we’re grading on a curve. He still needs to become more consistent, which should come with experience.

2022 fourth-round pick Joshua Williams failed to impress in limited usage. Hopefully, he’ll be better prepared this season.

Justin Reid gives the Chiefs one (mediocre) reliable safety. After that, there are questions. 2022 second-round pick Bryan Cook can hit hard but hasn’t shown the coverage skills the defense needs. Rookie fourth-round pick Chamarri Conner might have the coverage skills, but not the tackling skills. It’s a conundrum.

The Chiefs have very good coverage units. Punter Tommy Townsend did a fine job as well. The problems for the Chiefs were poor kicking and poor return units. Better health for kicker Harrison Butker might solve one of those problems. It looks like Richie James is taking over both return jobs, so perhaps that will fix the other issue.

The Chiefs have hosted the last five AFC Championship games. Absurd, I know. To host a sixth, they’ll need their two stars. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes will be back leading one of the most dangerous offenses in the NFL. Defensive tackle Chris Jones is deeply disgruntled. It’s difficult to consider the Chiefs’ defense viable if he’s not around. The pass rush would be anemic. That would expose the secondary and force Mahomes into gunfights.

The schedule is also quite a bit tougher this year. Of course, it looked tough last year, too. I expect Jones to eventually return, and he will be available for the biggest games of the season. His loss still handcuffs them early. 12-5.

Las Vegas Raiders:

2022 Record: 6-11

Projections:

Scouting Wins: 7.78

DVOA Wins: 8.1

FPI Wins: 7.65

Market Wins: 6.29

Implied Pythag: 40.72%

First, let me give you the good news: Premium free-agent pickup quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo led the league in DVOA last season:

2021: 3,810 yards, 20 TD, 12 INT, 7.7 NY/P, 17.9% DVOA, 834 DYAR (in 15 games)

2022: 2,437 yards, 16 TD, 4 INT, 7.2 NY/P, 30.4% DVOA, 860 DYAR (in 11 games)

If he’s healthy, Garoppolo can be a highly effective quarterback.

Two problems:

1. He had surgery on his left foot this offseason. He’s missed some practice time because of it. His health is an issue the Raiders will have to monitor.

2. Garoppolo no longer has access to Kyle Shanahan or the 49ers’ plethora of weapons.

What he does have access to is an elite #1WR, Davante Adams:

2020: 115 receptions, 1,374 yards, +13.6 +/-, 19.7% DVOA, 395 DYAR (in 14 games)

2021: 123 receptions, 1,553 yards, +13.6 +/-, 17.6% DVOA, 423 DYAR (in 16 games)

2022: 100 receptions, 1,516 yards, -6.3 +/-, -4.0% DVOA, 236 DYAR

Adams had some issues going from Aaron Rodgers to Derek Carr. Garoppolo should be an upgrade over Carr.

Injuries wrecked slot receiver Hunter Renfrow last year:

2021: 103 receptions, 1,038 yards, +14.6 +/-, 14.1% DVOA, 269 DYAR

2022: 36 receptions, 330 yards, -0.1 +/-, -15.8% DVOA, -12 DYAR (in 10 games)

He’s still dealing with a shoulder issue and has had trouble getting back on the field.

Premium free-agent pickup Jakobi Meyers should take some of the load off:

2022: 67 receptions, 804 yards, +4.3 +/-, 10.2% DVOA, 179 DYAR (in 14 games)

Free-agent pickup DeAndre Carter gives the Raiders a decent slot option if Renfrow can’t go:

2022: 46 receptions, 538 yards, +3.7 +/-, 2.7% DVOA, 82 DYAR

There’s no doubt that the Raiders signed him for his special teams abilities. Wide receiver is just his night gig.

Rookie third-round pick Tre Tucker was an old-school Raiders reach. Tucker is blazingly fast. He hasn’t shown the skills he’ll need to separate from NFL coverage. He’s also undersized, which limits his catch radius and his ability to win contested balls. I had him as a fifth-round value because of his usefulness as a return man. Which is something the Raiders don’t need. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Free-agent pickup Austin Hooper will be the #1TE while rookie second-round pick Michael Mayer develops:

2022: 41 receptions, 444 yards, 3.0 +/-, 8.6% DVOA, 63 DYAR

As for Mayer:

Michael Mayer: Decent athletic profile. Mayer provides a solid mix of blocking and receiving talent. When inline, he proved adept at handling outside linebackers or smaller defensive ends. He struggled when taking on larger defenders. That’s fine for a player who will be expected to earn his paycheck with his receiving skills.

The goal for an elite tight end is to be a natural mismatch, too fast for most linebackers, too strong for most defensive backs. Mayer has that potential. He was quite productive at Notre Dame:

2020: 59 targets, 42 receptions, 450 yards, 2 TD, 25.1 EPA

2021: 97 targets, 71 receptions, 840 yards, 7 TD, 32.9 EPA

2022: 105 targets, 67 receptions, 809 yards, 9 TD, 14.5 EPA

Only nine drops over that stretch. As tight end prospects go, Mayer has an unusually high floor. He’s shown a natural talent for finding the holes in the zone and catching balls in traffic.

I appreciate the fact that it’s tough to gauge which tight ends will take the next step and succeed in the NFL. Even so, I’d be comfortable using a mid-to-late first round pick on Mayer.

The Raiders might use a high number of 2TE sets to get both in the game.

Star running back Josh Jacobs has returned to the team:

2022: 404 squid, 2,053 yards, 11.2% DVOA, 383 DYAR

The Raiders hit Jacobs with the franchise tag. Jacobs wanted a long-term deal. The Raiders declined. Hopefully, Jacobs stays healthy and has another great season.

2022 fourth-round pick Zamir White will provide depth. We saw little of White last season, and what we did see was unimpressive (-12 DYAR).

Last season, Carmen Bricillo did one of the greatest coaching jobs I’ve ever seen. It was Bricillo’s first season as an offensive line coach. He had previously been an assistant in New England. Let me first provide the context.

Left tackle Kolton Miller and center Andrew James were returning starters. 2022 third-round pick Dylan Parham was going to start at left guard. Backup Alex Bars ended up making 14 starts at right guard. Journeyman Jermaine Eluemunor started at right tackle.

It was not an offensive line that inspired a ton of confidence. And yet, the Raiders were arguably the best run-blocking offensive line in the NFL. Additionally, they were eighth in adjusted sack rate.

It gets weirder.

Back in 2021 Kolton Miller finished fifth in my positional rankings. Andrew James finished tenth. Last year, Miller barely cracked the top 15. James was 20^th.

Dylan Parham was outside of the top 30. So was Alex Bars. Bars is currently a free agent who hasn’t found a home.

Jermaine Eluemunor finished outside of the top 40 among right tackles.

Let’s dig deeper. The Raiders finished tenth in ESPN’s pass-block win rate. Eleventh in run-block win rate. Miller finished in the top 10 of both metrics. But… the Raiders were below-average in giving up pressure.

So, what was Bricillo doing? As best as I can gauge, he taught his line how to lose in ways that weren’t fatal to the play. In other words, if you’re going to get beat, do it upfield, or to the right, or wherever. So often I’d see defenders beat the Raiders’ blocking, only to find themselves out of position. If that’s a repeatable trick, I will be very impressed.

Free-agent pickup Greg Van Roten will be taking over at right guard.

Last season, the Raiders had 27 sacks in 17 games. This is from the organization whose philosophy used to be:

“The quarterback must go down, and he must go down hard!” -Al Davis

It wasn’t an outlier, either, as they have 83 sacks in their last 50 games. Last season, the Raiders’ defense ranked 31^st in DVOA. Clearly, something had to be done to get Maxx Crosby (12.5 sacks, 80 hits+hurries) some help! Enter rookie first-round pick Tyree Wilson:

Tyree Wilson: A foot injury kept Wilson from running at the combine or his pro day, so we’re going with the film. One note: Wilson has incredible arm length, which is something teams covet.

Wilson had 14 sacks and 27.5 tackles for a loss in his final 23 games at Texas Tech. He looked great in 2022 before a foot injury sidelined him for the final three games of the season.

Wilson generally relies on length and power to beat offensive linemen. For someone who relies mostly on one trait, he has a fair amount of variety in the types of moves he uses. Additionally, Wilson added a number of counters to his repertoire to create pressure when his initial rush was blocked. Altogether, I’m impressed with how much work Wilson put into his game.

I don’t have numbers, but I can say Wilson looked highly athletic on film. For a man his size, he moved fast. What he lacks is explosion. I don’t know if teams can teach him to be quicker off of the snap.

Wilson is a prospect that clearly has the size and power to dominate outside. Does he have the athleticism? His college production was good, not great. No combine or pro day numbers leave him as a bit of a mystery. Like Murphy, I feel comfortable with him in the 11-15 range, but he’ll be long gone by then. In this case, it’s possible teams know more than I do and his combine numbers would have been elite. Wilson may indeed deserve to be the second non-quarterback off the board.

No matter how much I try to be objective, a part of me is a little leery of the fact that it was the Raiders who decided to take the injury risk regarding Wilson. Crosby will line up across from Chandler Jones (4.5 sacks, 41 hits+hurries), with Wilson and 2021 third-round pick Malcolm Koonce providing depth.

(Editor’s note: Wilson hasn’t played much this preseason. We saw him briefly. He doesn’t appear to be 100% fully recovered from the foot injury. I will say he made a few nice plays. Hopefully he gets his explosiveness and speed back.)

Koonce had two sacks in 48 snaps in his rookie season. No sacks last year. I just checked. I had a sixth-round grade on Koonce. Oof!

Starting defensive tackles Bilal Nichols (1.5 sacks, 21 hits+hurries) and Jerry Tillery (one sack, 16 hits+hurries) are not a very inspiring pair. The Raiders had a mighty need at edge rusher, but let’s not look past their mighty need at defensive tackle. They addressed that need with rookie third-round pick Byron Young:

Byron Young: 4.4 speed at 250. That’s something special. He turned 25 in March. That’s something…

Young had 12.5 sacks in two seasons at Tennessee. His lack of length was an issue, often losing in hand-to-hand combat with offensive linemen. It’s a problem that will only be exacerbated in the NFL.

On the plus side, part of the reason for his lack of elite production is that his technique is still fairly raw. There’s a lot of room for improvement there, which means there’s upside potential. Young’s explosiveness off of the snap is much harder to teach.

I have been trained to be skeptical of pass-rush prospects who didn’t produce against players their own age. Most of them didn’t have Young’s mix of size and speed. I’d be willing to look at Young around the middle of day two.

The Raiders also added some beef with the selection of Nesta Jade Silvera in round seven. I liked this selection quite a bit. I expect Silvera will develop into a quality run-stuffer.

John Jenkins and Adam Butler will provide additional depth inside.

I’m not sold that 2021 third-round pick converted safety Divine Deablo can hack it as a linebacker. I thought he was unimpressive in limited usage as a rookie. Last season was no better before a broken arm sidelined him.

Deablo will pair with free-agent pickup Robert Spillane in the base 4-2-5. I thought Spillane mostly did a decent job attacking the line of scrimmage in Pittsburgh. His pass coverage might be a slight issue (British understatement alert).

They’ll be joined by Luke Masterson in the 4-3. Masterson is a mediocrity who would see most of his snaps on special teams on a deeper team.

Rookie sixth-round pick Amari Burney will provide depth. Burney is a good athlete with very little starting experience. He’ll need some time to develop before he’s ready to contribute.

Broncos’ safety Justin Simmons had six interceptions last season. For Simmons, that was a tremendous accomplishment (in twelve games!) For the Raiders, it was a badge of shame. They needed to make a change.

First, they drafted rookie fourth-round pick Jakorian Bennett. Bennett laughs at your wide receivers with 4.4 speed. He had five interceptions over his final 24 games at Maryland. He could have had a lot more if he had better hands. Also, he seems to be a tad conservative, choosing to knock balls down that he might have had a chance at. Bennett will need some time to develop before he can handle NFL coverage responsibilities.

The Raiders then signed Marcus Peters. Peters is not the player he once was, hence the very reasonable contract, not signed until July. He did not have great numbers last season.

2021 fifth-round pick Nate Hobbs played both in the slot and outside. He did a decent job in the slot. He did not have the skills to hack it outside. Hopefully, the Raiders will put him back in the slot this year.

Free-agent pickup Brandon Facyson is another option. He didn’t impress me at Indianapolis, though.

2020 fourth-round pick Amik Robertson showed a few flashes last year, but he has mostly been awful.

Free-agent pickup David Long will provide depth.

2021 second-round pick Tre’von Moehrig will pair with free-agent pickup strong safety Marcus Epps. Epps did nice work in Philadelphia. Moehrig’s athletic limitations became apparent last season. He simply doesn’t have the range to be an elite deep safety. He also isn’t a great tackler.

Roderic Teamer and rookie fifth-round pick Chris Smith will provide depth.

Christopher Smith II: As a general rule NFL scouts aren’t looking for safeties under 6’0, under 200 pounds, who run a 4.60+ 40. Smith has that going against him.

Smith also has six interceptions in his past 27 games, as well as a blocked kick he returned for a touchdown. Smith is a very good football player with certain physical limitations.

Smith played in a variety of roles at Georgia. He’s a converted cornerback. The tricky part will be finding a role for him in the NFL where he doesn’t get exposed. I genuinely have no idea what his future role is. Perhaps he’ll work out of the slot. I wouldn’t take him until early day three.

Kicker Daniel Carlson did a fine job last season. Punter AJ Cole is solid. DeAndre Carter will take over the return duties. Mediocrity would be an upgrade here, although part of the issue was poor blocking. Hopefully, the Raiders will iron that out.

The Raiders are not a competent organization. They haven’t won the AFC West since 2002. Over that twenty year span they’ve gone 116-206. They’ve won 36% of their games (not counting the 0-2 playoff record). Just looking at this roster makes me wince. There are so many areas with horrific depth. That’s the result of years and years of poor drafting.

There’s some potential for upside here. If Jimmy Garoppolo can stay healthy. If the offensive line can keep working their black magic. If the pass rush rebounds. If. I’m going to trust in their track record. 6-11.

Los Angeles Chargers:

2022 Record: 10-7

Projections:

Scouting Wins: 10.58

DVOA Wins: 9.5

FPI Wins: 9.25

Market Wins: 9.74

Implied Pythag: 62.05%

Chargering: Defined as “choking a game away, where you collapsed. You crumbled.” -Brandon Staley

For a team with an awful history of playoff collapses, it’s tough to leave a legacy. Staley is off to a great start. Blowing a 27-0 lead to the Jaguars (the Jaguars!) is an impressive feat.

Getting wide receiver Mike Williams hurt in a meaningless game against the Broncos the week before didn’t help. Injuries were a major issue for the Chargers all season, so one might expect them to take a week off when the option presented itself.

There are a few reasons to expect this season to be much better than the last:

1. Justin Herbert is healthy. He should at least be able to recapture the glory of 2021:

2020: 4,336 yards, 31 TD, 10 INT, 6.6 NY/P, 10.2% DVOA, 832 DYAR (in 15 games)

2021: 5,014 yards, 38 TD, 15 INT, 6.8 NY/P, 17.4% DVOA, 1,432 DYAR

2022: 4,737 yards, 25 TD, 10 INT, 6.2 NY/P, 2.7% DVOA, 640 DYAR

2. New offensive coordinator Kellen Moore is an enormous upgrade over the departed Joe Lombardi. Lombardi is now in Denver, but let’s not kid ourselves, Sean Payton is running that offense. As for Moore, heads had to roll in Dallas, so Moore took the axe while McCarthy bought himself a year.

Speaking of buying himself a year, Chargers head coach Brandon Staley is down to his last few hit points. It’s tough to coach scared. We’ll see how it goes.

Justin Herbert has been given a lucrative contract extension. He’ll be working with an upgraded group of receivers. I’ll discuss the upgrades shortly. First, let’s talk about Mike Williams:

2022: 63 receptions, 895 yards, +7.0 +/-, 17.4% DVOA, 219 DYAR (in 13 games)

Williams is an excellent short-to-midrange receiver.

Slot receiver Keenan Allen is no slouch in that respect:

2022: 66 receptions, 752 yards, 9.5 +/-, 8.0% DVOA, 146 DYAR (in 10 games)

Getting 365 DYAR from your top two receivers isn’t bad. The problem was that the Chargers didn’t have their deep passing game humming. That really shouldn’t be a problem for a healthy Herbert. Enter rookie first-round pick Quentin Johnston:

Quentin Johnston: I’m not gonna lie, this wasn’t the athletic profile I was expecting from Johnson. On film he was a monster after the catch. One of his weaknesses was exploding off of the line of scrimmage, especially against press coverage.

Given his size, you would expect Johnson to dominate when challenged on contested catches. Let me assure you, that was not the case. He was also a less effective blocker in the running game than he probably should have been. On the plus side, he presented a large target with a commensurate catch radius (33.625 inch arms, 9.625 inch hands.)

What Johnson brings to the table is a 19.0 yards-per-catch resume. Last season he caught 60 of the 98 balls sent his way for 1,069 yards, which is a nice season. He played faster in pads than his combine would suggest. He dealt with a nagging ankle injury in 2022. When completely healthy, his best film was breathtaking.

Another one of Johnson’s strengths was his ability to find the holes in the zone. It’s difficult to tell how much of this was schematic and how much of it was Johnson’s ability to read coverage on the fly.

Right now Johnson projects as a #2WR with the ability to stretch defenses and work as a zone-buster. If he can clean up his footwork and improve his hand strength, he could develop into an elite #1WR. I love his combination of evasiveness and power after the catch. Johnson likely won’t be the first WR off the board. I’ll admit those agility numbers are scary. Despite that, I expect him to produce for whoever drafts him. Top-10 value.

(Editor’s note: It’s always a good sign when your #1WR in the class gets invited, and then disinvited, from the draft.)

2021 third-round pick Joshua Palmer will also be in the mix:

2022: 72 receptions, 769 yards, +5.2 +/-, -2.6% DVOA, 87 DYAR (in 16 games)

Rookie fourth-round pick Derius Davis will make an immediate impact on the Chargers’ return game. He’s a former sprint champion. He’s quite undersized with a small catch radius, so he might be used sparingly in the passing game.

#1TE Gerald Everett did not have a great first season in Los Angeles:

2022: 58 receptions, 555 yards, -1.7 +/-, -12.7% DVOA, -31 DYAR (in 16 games)

Improved health/depth in the receiver corps should help take some of the load off of Everett.

Donald Parham is mostly a blocker. He had ten receptions in six games last year. Hamstring and head injuries kept him off the field, although he did have four receptions in the Chargers’ playoff loss.

2021 third-round pick Tre’ McKitty is a blocking specialist as well. He managed to produce -85 DYAR in 18 targets (-82.0% DVOA). That’s tough to do. Even worse, his blocking skills were poor. Dude is on his way to playing himself out of a job.

#1RB Austin Ekeler had another fine season:

2021: 300 squid, 1,558 yards, 12.1% DVOA, 325 DYAR (in 16 games)

2022: 332 squid, 1,637 yards, 2.9% DVOA, 222 DYAR

He attempted to parlay it into a lucrative contract extension. The Chargers added some incentives to his current deal. It’s tough out there for running backs.

2020 fourth-round pick Joshua Kelley and 2022 fourth-round pick Isaiah Spiller will provide depth.

2021 first-round pick left tackle Rashawn Slater is arguably the best LT in the league. He was only able to play in three games last season. His return should give the offense a huge boost.

2022 first-round pick Zion Johnson did a decent job at right guard. He’ll be moving over to left guard.

I was mostly happy with the performance of center Corey Linsley. Cutting down on flags would be nice, though.

2022 sixth-round pick Jamaree Salyer did his best filling in for Slater at left tackle last season. He’ll be moving to right guard, which should be a massive step down in difficulty. I like his chances of handling the move.

Right tackle Trey Pipkins was mediocre.

This offensive line is better at pass protection than run blocking. That’s probably the right priority, but I should note that the lack of power here is a bit extreme.

Rookie fifth-round pick Jordan McFadden will provide depth. McFadden has experience at both tackle positions, but he will likely have to move to guard in the NFL.

The Chargers’ defense will receive a boost from the return of Joey Bosa. Bosa had 10.5 sacks (52 hits+hurries) in 2021. He had 2.5 sacks in five games last season. Khalil Mack (eight sacks, 37 hits+hurries) did his best to make up for the loss. Both staying healthy would be great for the Chargers.

2021 fourth-round pick Chris Rumph (two sacks, 13 hits+hurries) will have a larger role this season. Rookie second-round pick Tuli Tuipulotu will join the edge rotation:

Tuli Tuipulotu: After a surprise 2022 breakout (13.5 sacks, 22 tackles for a loss), scouts were very curious to see how Tuli would perform at the combine. Alas, a right hamstring injury kept him from running.

The film showed a player with good power and excellent closing instincts (if not closing speed). What it didn’t show was the explosion or raw athleticism teams covet. Interestingly, it also showed a player playing at multiple different weights throughout the season.

Tuli has played both at tackle and at end. He’s not a natural NFL fit at either. On the edge he doesn’t have the length or speed to beat tackles off the edge. He does have the power to provide a decent bull rush, which is something to build on. Inside, he doesn’t have the right build to hold his ground. Versatility is nice, but Tuli has to be viewed as a project who will need to spend a fair amount of time in the weight room.

Tuli impressed me. His pass rush skills need work, but he has a cleverness you can’t teach. Dude has game. Tuli won’t turn 21 until after the draft. I see the 2022 Pac-10 Defensive Player of the Year as a solid early second-round value.

The defensive line will look mostly the same. Nose tackle Sebastian Joseph-Day, defensive end Morgan Fox, and defensive tackle Austin Johnson have all returned. Day was a monster against the run, and added two sacks (16 hits+hurries) and an interception. Fox did some nice work (6.5 sacks, 25 hits+hurries). Johnson was limited to eight games before a knee injury ended his season. It’s a reasonably stout line.

Nick Williams and rookie sixth-round pick Scott Matlock will provide depth. Matlock is a pretty good athlete. He might have some upside as an interior pass-rusher in a year or two.

Free-agent pickup inside linebacker Eric Kendricks will pair with 2020 first-round pick Kenneth Murray in the base 3-4. Kendricks has 280 tackles over his past 32 games. The Chargers are hoping he will help stabilize their run defense. Murray hasn’t lived up to his draft status. Last year I’d say he was… fine? The Chargers declined his fifth-year option. He’ll be giving max effort this year.

2021 sixth-round pick Nick Neimann and rookie third-round pick Daiyan Henley will provide depth:

Daiyan Henley: This is what a true LB/S hybrid looks like. Henley has experience at both cornerback and safety. Made 102 tackles in 12 games at Nevada in 2021 (four interceptions). Transferred to Washington State. Made 106 tackles in 12 games, with four sacks and one interception for the Cougars.

Henley is still learning the position. His talent is obvious on film. He misses far fewer tackles than you’d expect of a man his size. He’ll be at his best working in space, and perhaps as a blitzer if he develops better pass-rush skills.

It’s not realistic to expect Henley to try and work through traffic and beat NFL-level blocking. He’s also going to need some time to learn how to handle the variety of routes he’ll have to defend. Henley’s an elite athlete with upside, not a finished product. If he’s a good fit for what your defense wants, I’d look to take him around the middle of day two.

Henley is currently being slowed by a hamstring injury. Neimann has done most of his work on special teams.

J.C. Jackson was supposed to be the Chargers’ star cornerback. Instead, he ruptured his knee in his fifth game with the team. He’s trying to get into playing shape for week one.

That’s not my concern, though. My concern is that he was absolutely awful last season. He was torched repeatedly. Now, either he was hurt or he’s washed. He’s too young for washed to be the likely result. Hopefully when he returns, the Chargers get the version who played for the Patriots. If that guy is gone, then the Chargers need to find a plan B, because that version of Jackson is not a viable NFL cornerback.

2021 second-round pick Asante Samuel did a decent job last season. He took his rookie lumps and now looks like a solid cornerback.

I was very impressed by Michael Davis last season. He’s in a contract year and could be looking at a sizable deal if he backs it up.

2022 sixth-round pick Ja’Sir Taylor is still learning the finer points of how to cover NFL receivers. The fact that he’s the next man up if Jackson is hurt/toast is disconcerting.

2022 seventh-round pick Deane Leonard will provide depth.

I kind of feel like the Chargers are a cornerback short, but perhaps that’s just me being skeptical of Jackson.

Strong safety Derwin James has upgraded from keeping the Chargers’ secondary respectable to keeping the back-seven respectable. He’s a phenomenal player whose numbers don’t reflect the value he provides.

2020 sixth-round pick Alohi Gilman appears to have beat out 2022 third-round pick JT Woods for the free safety job. Woods has more long term upside, but I suspect Gilman is better prepared to start right now.

After years of ineptitude, the Chargers’ special teams were pretty good last season. Cameron Dicker, the kicker, was solid. Punter JK Scott did a fine job working with his coverage. The only real weak link was the return units. Rookie fourth-round pick Derius Davis should give those a boost. Things might be looking up in LA.

The Chargers got wrecked by injuries last season. They went 10-7 but finished 18^th in DVOA. The offense looks dangerous. There’s talent throughout, with a quality quarterback to lead it. The defense gets Joey Bosa back.

My concern is that the secondary is thin. Jackson will need to prove himself. Of course, if I’m wrong and he’s aces, then the Chargers could prove real challengers to the Chiefs.

Let’s not get ahead of ourselves. This is a good team with hopes for a bright future. 10-7.

2023 NFL Preview: NFC East + NFC Playoffs

September 4, 2023

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NFC East:

Philadelphia Eagles: 12-5

Dallas Cowboys: 11-6

New York Giants: 7-10

Washington Commanders: 6-11

Dallas Cowboys:

2022 Record: 12-5

Projections:

Scouting Wins: 9.10

DVOA Wins: 11.10

FPI Wins: 9.40

Market Wins: 10.14

Implied Pythag: 62.83%

Each of the past two seasons, the Dallas Cowboys went 12-5, only to fall to the San Francisco 49ers. Two years ago, Dak Prescott wasn’t fully healthy and the 49ers took advantage. Last year, the Cowboys were riding high after a demolition of Tampa Bay. Dak Prescott had a rough day, going 23-for-37 for 206 yards with two interceptions. The Cowboys only scored 12 points in a 19-12 defeat.

The 49ers have an elite defense. It’s reasonable to expect your offense to struggle against them. However, there’s a bit more to it.

Dak Prescott had a bit of a down season by his standards:

2019: 4,902 yards, 30 TD, 11 INT, 7.7 NY/P, 27.1% DVOA, 1,612 DYAR

2020: 1,856 yards, 9 TD, 4 INT, 7.7 NY/P, 14.0% DVOA, 445 DYAR (in five games)

2021: 4,449 yards, 37 TD, 10 INT, 6.9 NY/P, 21.2% DVOA, 1,282 DYAR (in 16 games)

2022: 2,860 yards, 23 TD, 15 INT, 6.6 NY/P, 8.3% DVOA, 551 DYAR (in 12 games)

This drop in efficiency was partially driven by poor offensive game-planning.

Problem: The Cowboys were too conservative on first down.

Solution: Promote Brian Schottenheimer from “coaching analyst” to “offensive coordinator.”

FWIW, it is understood that Mike McCarthy has been given the keys to the offense. Schottenheimer just got a promotion in title.

Digging in a bit deeper, #1WR CeeDee Lamb had a productive season:

2022: 107 receptions, 1,359 yards, +8.2 +/-, 12.6% DVOA, 314 DYAR

Lamb was highly effective from the slot (24.2% DVOA), but ineffective outside (-20.8% DVOA). Thankfully, he lined up in the slot over 70% of the time. This brings us to trade acquisition Brandin Cooks:

2022: 57 receptions, 699 yards, +0.4 +/-, -6.9% DVOA, 44 DYAR (in 13 games)

I’d cut Cooks some slack because he was playing in Houston. I need to point out that Cooks’s DVOA was 11.5% from the slot and -25.1% when working outside. Say it with me:

The slot is a cheat code and a limited resource.

In theory, Cooks will be working outside most of the time in Dallas. He’ll be across from Michael Gallup:

2022: 39 receptions, 424 yards, -7.2 +/-, -7.2% DVOA, 33 DYAR (in 14 games)

Now, one might think Gallup had lost some athleticism due to the torn ACL that ended his 2021 season. That may have been the case. However, Gallup had a 53.2 DVOA from the slot (in a very small sample), and a -21% DVOA when working outside. One more time:

The slot is a cheat code and a limited resource.

If Lamb gets most of the snaps from the slot, he should be okay. I’m less confident in Cooks and Gallup.

2022 third-round pick Jalen Tolbert didn’t make much of an impact last season. He should get more opportunities this year.

2021 fifth-round pick Simi Fehoko also failed to earn much playing time. There’s less depth this year, with Tolbert effectively winning the WR4 job by default.

2022 fourth-round pick Jake Ferguson is trying to inherit the #1TE job from the departed Dalton Schutz:

2022: 19 receptions, 174 yards, +1.8 +/-, 4.3% DVOA, 17 DYAR (in 16 games)

Rookie second-round pick Luke Schoonmaker is also in the running:

Luke Schoonmaker: Another premium athlete. Smallish hands for the position. Solid work for Michigan over the past two seasons:

2021-22: 72 targets, 52 receptions, 583 yards, 6 TD, 27.8 EPA

Clearly made an effort to polish his route-running skills. Highly adept run blocker. There are some questions about Schoonmaker’s ceiling, but I wouldn’t worry about his floor.

One notable concern is that he’ll turn 25 in September. NFL scouting departments will take that into account when analyzing his accomplishments.

Another concern is that he wasn’t a natural ballcarrier. My sense is Schoonmaker is at or near his peak. If I needed a blocking tight end with upside, I’d be fine taking him in the third round.

Tony Pollard has finally been promoted to RB1:

2022: 248 squid, 1,378 yards, 7.9% DVOA, 211 DYAR (in 16 games)

It’s unlikely he’ll inherit the bulk of the departed Ezekiel Elliot’s snaps, so look for a battle between Malik Davis, Rico Dowdle, Ronald Jones and rookie sixth-round pick Deuce Vaughn for playing time. Davis was effective in limited usage last season:

2022: 45 squid, 224 yards, 17.4% DVOA, 60 DYAR (in 12 games)

Vaughn is hilariously undersized. I’d expect him to be a pure scatback.

Dowdle has played well this preseason. He looks like he’ll be the week one backup.

Ronald Jones is suspended two games for PED usage. That might end up costing him his job.

The Cowboys’ offensive line is a bit complicated, so bear with me. Last season, 2022 first-round pick Tyler Smith played left tackle in place of the injured Tyron Smith. Tyler was a flag magnet and mediocre at best. Tyron only appeared in four games last season, all at right tackle. FWIW, I thought he did a pretty good job there.

Tyron Smith has missed 33 games over the past three seasons. Even before that, staying healthy was a challenge for him, as he played in exactly 13 games from 2016-2019. Amazing consistency. The Cowboys are hoping he can finally stay healthy. We’ll see how that goes. In case you’re curious, Tyron played well in 2021, save for an issue with penalties. He’d be a sizable upgrade over Tyler if he can return to his 2021 form.

Tyler Smith is moving to left guard, which should be a better fit for his skill-set.

2020 fourth-round pick center Tyler Biadasz played well last season, finishing just outside my top ten.

Star right guard Zack Martin is back from his holdout after getting paid. I had him as the top guard in the NFL and it was not particularly close.

Right tackle Terence Steele did a decent job in thirteen games last season. He’ll be back this year.

2021 fourth-round pick Josh Ball and rookie fifth-round pick Asim Richards will provide depth inside.

Budget free-agent pickup Chuma Edoga and 2022 fifth-round pick Matt Waletzko will provide depth outside.

Before I get to the defense, I’d like to talk about the Cowboys quarterback depth. Backup quarterback Cooper Rush did a decent job when called into service:

2022: 1,051 yards, 5 TD, 3 INT, 5.9 NY/P, 2.1% DVOA, 141 DYAR (in nine games)

Rush kept the Cowboys from collapsing in Dak’s absence. He doesn’t present much in the way of upside. For that, let’s turn to recent trade acquisition, Trey Lance.

Lance simply had not given us much of a sample to work with. Injuries have kept him off the field. The 49ers have decided to move on. At this point Lance might be damaged goods, or may yet prove to be worth his lofty draft status. I will be fascinated to see how he develops in Dallas.

Over the past two seasons the Cowboys’ defense has been stout, finishing second in DVOA both years. 2021 first-round pick Micah Parsons (13.5 sacks, 67 hits+hurries) obviously had quite a bit to do with that. While he’s not asked to do it often, he’s elite in coverage as well. Parsons is one of the best defensive players in the NFL.

He has plenty of help from edge-rushers DeMarcus Lawrence (six sacks, 41 hits+hurries), Dorance Armstrong (8.5 sacks, 35 hits+hurries), Dante Fowler (six sacks, 38 hits+hurries), and 2022 second-round pick Sam Williams (four sacks, 16 hits+hurries).

2021 third-round pick defensive tackle Osa Odighizuwa did a fine job as well (four sacks, 18 hits+hurries). Osa was highly effective against the run and is proving to be a quality player. Osa and Lawrence will be joined on the defensive line by rookie first-round pick nose tackle Mazi Smith:

Mazi Smith: Excellent blend of size and strength. No pass-rush skills whatsoever (0.5 sacks in 28 starts). Only averaged three tackles a game, with a measly five tackles for a loss in those 28 starts.

What Smith can do for you is shove his blocker into the backfield. He’s much more disruptive than his tackle numbers suggest. I want to stress that this dude is legit strong.

There’s a fair amount of room for improvement here. For one thing, his technique against double-teams needs work. Once he solves that, he’ll become the proverbial immovable object. Additionally, he has the athleticism to provide a decent pass-rush. There’s real potential growth in that regard.

Smith looks to be a potentially elite nose tackle. Even if the sacks aren’t flowing, the pressure is there. He’ll move the quarterback off of his spot. I liked Smith a lot more than I expected and would be fine taking him near the end of the first round, or early in the second. The dude can play.

With Smith in the fold, 2020 third-round pick Neville Gallimore and Jonathan Hankins can provide depth inside.

The Cowboys play a fair amount of base nickel and dime. Off-ball linebacker Leighton Vander Esch will start. He was healthy and reliable last season. It’s not clear whom he’ll be paired with.

2022 fifth-round pick Damone Clark overcame a back injury into to appear in ten games last season. I’m not sure he has the skills to be an every-down linebacker. Rookie fourth-round pick DeMarvion Overshown is another option:

DeMarvion Overshown: Fast, but undersized. Overshown is a converted defensive back. Dude made some plays in the defensive backfield (four sacks, ten tackles for a loss last season at Texas). I’m not sure he’s a potential edge or if it’s more accurate to consider him a linebacker with a blitz specialty.

Truth be told, he’s not a traditional linebacker either. He’s pretty awful in every facet against the run. He struggles with play recognition and can’t get off of blocks.

Overshown might have to develop into a safety/linebacker hybrid who can provide value in coverage while being a constant threat to blitz. I’m not really sure what to do with him and wouldn’t want to draft him without having a clear plan for his role. I’d consider him outside of the top 125.

(Update: Overshown will start the season on IR with a knee injury. Clark gets the starting gig.)

After 11 interceptions in 2021, teams were a little bit more cautious targeting Stefon Diggs last year. He had three interceptions and still gave up a fair bit of yardage per target. The Cowboys can more than live with the risks he takes given the rewards. He’ll start across from trade acquisition Stephon Gilmore.

Gilmore is no longer as dominant a defender as when he was recognized as the 2019 Associated Press Defensive MVP. Over the past three years, he’s been traded for a sixth-round pick, and more recently, for a compensatory fifth-round pick. Dallas will settle for reliable competence.

With Jourdan Lewis still on the PUP list due to his 2022 Lisfranc injury, 2022 fifth-round pick DaRon Bland is looking to win the nickelback job. Bland made an excellent first impression, with five interceptions in his rookie campaign. Lewis was playing well before he got hurt, but he may find himself out of a job (and a roster spot).

(Update: Lewis has returned and reclaimed the job. Good for him.)

2021 second-round pick Kelvin Joseph has shined on special teams. He’s failed to make an impact on defense. 2021 third-round pick Nahshon Wright hasn’t impressed when given the opportunity to play.

The Cowboys traded up in the sixth-round round to select Eric Scott. Scott’s man coverage skills are N/A. He might be able to work as a zone cornerback. Dan Quinn likely has some idea of what he wants Scott to do for the defense.

Look for the Cowboys to go with a lot of three-safety looks. Malik Hooker, Jayron Kearse, and Donovan Wilson all averaged over fifty snaps a game last season. Kearse does an excellent job attacking the line of scrimmage. Hooker snagged three interceptions last season. Wilson put up elite coverage numbers. This trio played a major role in Dallas’s continued defensive success. Of course, it helps that they were protected by an elite pass rush.

I don’t think Brandon Aubrey won the Cowboys kicker job by hitting sixty-yard field goals on Instagram, but it probably didn’t hurt. Aubrey did an excellent job for the Birmingham Stallions in the USFL.

Punter Bryan Anger was awesome in 2021, fine in 2022. Perhaps he’ll split the difference this year.

Pro Bowl return specialist KaVontae Turpin didn’t necessarily earn his selection. He was decent. The Cowboys would likely settle for that again.

Dallas is trying to reclaim NFC East supremacy from Philadelphia. To succeed, they’ll need their offense to bounce back. A healthy season from Dak Prescott would be a good start. I like what they’ve done on defense. Adding Mazi Smith was a bit of a surprise on draft night. It’s a move that looks good in retrospect. My concern is that the receiver corps is not as good as it looks on paper. Also, Dallas might not have a reliable tight end. Still, a good quarterback and a good defense count for a lot. 11-6.

New York Giants:

2022 Record: 9-7-1

Projections:

Scouting Wins: 7.54

DVOA Wins: 6.40

FPI Wins: 8.20

Market Wins: 7.64

Implied Pythag: 47.22%

In a vacuum, If you had just lost a divisional round playoff game and your quarterback was a free agent, you might be tempted to re-sign him. Additionally, you might be tempted to hit your first-round running back with a franchise tag. Both of these moves sound reasonable in the abstract. Let’s dig into them with a bit more detail:

The Giants declined the fifth-year option on 2019 first-round pick quarterback Daniel Jones. Over the first two years of his contract, Jones was below replacement-level (-524 DYAR). He “broke out” in his third season:

2021: 2,428 yards, 10 TD, 7 INT, 5.9 NY/P, -10.6% DVOA, 9 DYAR (in 11 games)

You’re not impressed? Well, compare that to what the Giants got from Mike Glennon and Jake Fromm when Jones was out:

2021: 1,000 yards, 5 TD, 13 INT, 3.8 NY/P, -66.9% DVOA, -867 DYAR (in six games)

In 2022, the Giants brought in a new regime. Brian Daboll did quite a bit to help Jones play to his strengths. The results were notable:

2022: 3,205 yards, 15 TD, 5 INT, 5.8 NY/P, 1.1% DVOA, 613 DYAR (in 16 games)

Jones also rushed for 708 yards. The offense became more conservative while giving Jones the option to run.

In the playoffs, Jones torched the Vikings for 301 yards in the air and rushed for another 78. Things didn’t go so well against the Eagles, where Jones passed for a measly 135 yards. He lost more yards in sacks (26) than he gained in carries (24).

This left the Giants with a choice. They could negotiate with Jones, with the threat of the franchise tag hanging over him, or they could walk away. In the end, they struck a deal for four years, $160M, with $81M guaranteed. It’s effectively a two-year deal, with two one-year team options for $30 and $46.5 million, respectively.

I… would not have made that deal if I were the Giants. It’s not the lack of a track record. It’s that Jones’s peak performance isn’t high enough to justify it. His lack of anticipation forces him to hold the ball too long. I appreciate that he was working with a poor receiver corps. I also know what I’ve seen. He’s not a franchise quarterback.

Alas, what’s done is done. Jones got paid. Let’s make the best of the situation. This brings me to running back Saquon Barkley. The plight of the running back has been covered. They no longer command the level of respect they once earned.

Barkley missed 17 games in 2020 and 2021. In 2022 he played a full season (apart from week 18 where the Giants rested their starters):

2022: 371 squid, 1,650 yards, -4.5% DVOA, 72 DYAR (in 16 games)

Just looking at that statline I can feel how tough those yards were. I suspect things will be no different in 2023. The Giants hit Barkley with a franchise tag, and eventually negotiated a deal that was similar to the tag, with some incentives. The Giants want to run Barkley into the ground, which is exactly what his contract rewards. So be it.

The wide receiver corps is… well, it’s a bit odd. The Giants seem to have embraced the concept that the slot is a cheat code. It’s not clear that they agree it’s a limited resource.

Darius Slayton

2020: 50 receptions, 751 yards, -6.6 +/-, -13.6% DVOA, -7 DYAR

2021: 26 receptions, 339 yards, -7.8 +/-, -36.2% DVOA, -108 DYAR (in 13 games)

2022: 46 receptions, 724 yards, +0.5 +/-, 13.5% DVOA, 136 DYAR (in 16 games)

Don’t get too excited. Slayton still drops 7% of the balls sent his way. Slayton was roughly 50/50 to line up in the slot or out wide last year. He was much more effective outside (33.2% DVOA outside, -5.2% DVOA in the slot). That’s where the Giants need him. Just don’t expect him to repeat his 2022 performance.

When the Giants picked up Isaiah Hodgins on waivers, expectations were low. Hodgins ended up appearing in eight games for the Giants, starting five of them. He caught 33 of the 42 passes sent his way for 351 yards. Counting his two games with Buffalo, he finished with +6.0 +/-, a 12.1% DVOA, for 96 DYAR. He’s earned a starting job.

Free-agent pickup Parris Campbell is coming in as WR3:

2022: 63 receptions, 623 yards, +1.3 +/-, -8.4% DVOA, 31 DYAR

He generally works out of the slot, and is expected to do so in New York.

2022 second-round pick Wan’dale Robinson is another slot specialist:

2022: 23 receptions, 223 yards, +1.3 +/-, 2.9% DVOA, 38 DYAR (in six games)

Injuries robbed Robinson of most of his rookie season. He’s currently on the PUP list as he’s recovering from an ACL tear. He hopes to be back week one.

Sterling Shepard has suffered an Achilles injury and an ACL tear over the past two seasons. Sadly, when he was available his level of play was brutal:

2022: 13 receptions, 154 yards, -1.8 +/-, -39.5% DVOA, -49 DYAR (in three games)

If we want to take the long view, Shepard has produced 9 DYAR over his past four seasons (32 games). The Giants gave him a one-year deal in the hopes that he can revive his career.

Rookie third-round pick Jalin Hyatt gives the Giants yet another option in the slot:

Jalin Hyatt: The 2022 Biletnikoff winner (67 receptions, 1,267 yards, 15 TD, 69.4 EPA, on 91 targets). True elite speed. Despite that, Hyatt is a bit of a polarizing prospect. Hyatt hasn’t shown an ability to run anything close to a complete route tree. The threat of burning cornerbacks deep forced them to give him a large cushion. He took advantage of that, turning short catches into solid gains.

Hyatt did most of his damage from the slot. It’s an open question as to whether or not he’ll be able to develop a polished game and work outside. If Hyatt develops into a well-rounded player, his speed will open up space for the rest of the offense.

One concern is that defensive backs were able to bully him. He is fairly slender and might not be able to add much weight to his frame. There’s the possibility that his ceiling is that of a slot speedster. His upside is that of an elite #2WR deep threat.

I’d like to note is that Hyatt was an impressively good run blocker. His power wasn’t great. Where he excelled was getting his hands onto his man. Even if Hyatt was merely a speed bump, he helped his running back turn the corner.

I’m enamored with Hyatt’s potential. He’s shown an elite ability to track deep balls in flight. There aren’t many players with his combination of height, length, speed, and college production. I agree that he’s a bit raw and will need some time to develop. I acknowledge that it might be a while before he can hold his own outside, and that that day might never come. I view Hyatt as a worthy late day one selection and would understand if someone gambled on him before then.

When the Giants traded wide receiver Kadarius Toney to the Chiefs, they acquired a third-round pick. They ended up sending that pick to the Raiders in March to acquire tight end Darren Waller:

2022: 28 receptions, 388 yards, +2.3 +/-, 5.8% DVOA, 39 DYAR (in nine games)

Waller is two years removed from his elite 2020 performance (11.4% DVOA, 190 DYAR). The Giants are hoping he’ll shine in a new environment.

2022 fourth-round pick Daniel Bellinger had a nice rookie season.

2022: 30 receptions, 268 yards, +5.3 +/-, 13.6% DVOA, 49 DYAR (in 12 games)

With Saquon Barkley being used as the workhorse, #2RB Matt Breida doesn’t get the ball much:

2022: 79 squid, 338 yards, -1.6% DVOA, 27 DYAR

A tale of two tackles:

2020 first-round pick left tackle Andrew Thomas finished first in my rankings. He was exceptional at preventing pressure. He played clean, with only one penalty on the season. A truly outstanding performance.

2022 first-round pick Evan Neal finished DFL among right tackles. An absolutely awful rookie season. Perhaps it was injuries. Perhaps it was switching from the left side to the right side. Whatever the case, he needs to be much better this season. The Giants can’t afford to let him tank their season.

Left guard Ben Bredeson was pretty good when healthy. He missed six games last season with knee injuries.

2022 third-round pick left guard Joshua Ezeudu was not as effective. His season was cut short by a neck injury. I expect Bredeson to retain his starting job.

Rookie second-round pick John Michael Schmitz is taking over at center:

John Michael Schmitz: First Team All-American center. Schmitz is not a guy who impressed me at first look. His combine numbers are in line with what I saw on film. But then play, after play, after play… he did his job. That job included calling out protections. He read the defense, snapped the ball, made his block.

Schmitz is pretty much the opposite of the planet theory. He’s not a true mauler. He’s solid, game in, game out. A former wrestler, Schmitz is quite good at hand control and moving a defender off the spot. Just don’t expect too many pancakes.

Now, I should note he turned 24 in March. He redshirted in 2017 and spent six years at Minnesota. I would expect limited further development in the pros. The one area he’ll need to work on is his footwork. The NFL will expect him to set anchor in pass protection faster than we’ve seen from him at Minnesota.

To me, Schmitz is the clear #1 option in a weak draft. More metronome than monster. I expect that teams will prefer to reach for physical marvels in the first round and that Schmitz will be available on day two. If I needed a center, particularly one ready to start week one, I’d grab Schmitz late in the first round.

I liked this selection quite a bit.

Right guard Mark Glowinski was a disappointment. The premium free agent finished in the bottom third of my rankings. I wonder if Evan Neal’s struggles forced him into some tough spots.

My rankings are mostly based on pass protection. The Giants’ running game was phenomenal when Glowinski and Neal were the key blockers. They brought the power the Giants were expecting. That should continue this season.

2020 third-round pick Matt Peart will provide depth outside.

The Giants’ defense finished 29^th in DVOA last season. There are a couple of big issues. First, they were terrible against the run. Second, they got obliterated by tight ends.

Part of the weakness against the run was by design. They played a fair amount of dime defense. Additionally, no team blitzed more often. If the offense was able to create a seam, there were not a lot of secondary defenders close to the ball. This style of defense works if you can pressure the opposing passer. Relative to an average team, the Giants did do a decent job of generating pressure, but they were poor at turning pressure into sacks.

Unfortunately, an average team should not be the measuring stick here. If you lead the league in blitzing, you shouldn’t finish 12^th in pressure rate. You definitely shouldn’t finish 22^nd in sack rate.

The defensive issues weren’t the fault of nose tackle Dexter Lawrence (7.5 sacks, 49 hits+hurries). Those are off-the-charts numbers for a nose.

Defensive tackle/end Leonard Williams (2.5 sacks, 20 hits+hurries) was good. Not great. Just good. That’s disappointing given the amount of resources the Giants spent to acquire and retain him.

Williams and Lawrence will be joined by free-agent pickups A’Shawn Robinson and Rakeem Nuñez-Roches. Both are space-eating run-stuffers.

2021 second-round pick edge-rusher Azeez Ojulari had 5.5 sacks in seven games last season. The Giants’ defense will be much better if he can stay healthy. He’ll start across from 2022 first-round pick Kayvon Thibodeaux (four sacks, 42 hits+hurries).

Jihad Ward (three sacks, 23 hits+hurries) and Oshane Ximines (two sacks, 13 hits+hurries) round out the rotation.

It’s a little odd to see a team give out a big contract to an off-ball linebacker. Premium free-agent pickup Bobby Okereke should strengthen the Giants’ interior defense.

It’s not clear who Okereke will play alongside when the Giants line up in the base 3-4. Jarrad Davis was the plan, but he’s out for the season with a knee injury. 2022 fifth-round pick Micah McFadden was terrible last season. 2022 sixth-round pick Darrian Beavers missed last season with a torn ACL. He’s healthy now and at least has a clean slate, which might be enough to earn the job.

(Update: McFadden wins! Welp!)

Last season the Giants tied with the Raiders for fewest interceptions with six. The Giants needed to upgrade their secondary. Enter rookie first-round pick Deonte Banks:

Deonte Banks: NFL-level athlete. Banks trusts both his physicality and his speed. He can jam receivers, or float and close. Best of luck trying to beat him deep. He’ll use the sideline and deny the quarterback a clear angle.

In zone coverage, Banks did a nice job of maintaining proper positioning while keeping his eyes on the quarterback. He might be a tad aggressive, which is something opposing quarterbacks will try to use against him.

Banks was solid in run support. I was impressed with his reaction speed.

The issue with Banks is his footwork. When facing wide receivers, he’s late to get out of his back-pedal. When he has his back to the quarterback he gets antsy. That leads to him occasionally grabbing the receiver and getting flagged. These are correctable flaws in his technique. Banks produced -15.1 EPA on 53 targets (-0.28 EPA-per-target, minus the flags of course.)

There’s too much upside here to ignore. Banks is a late first-round value with elite #1CB potential.

Banks will start across from Adoree’ Jackson. Jackson played well in 2021. Last season he regressed quite a bit. Hopefully it was just a bad run of variance.

2022 third-round pick Cor’Dale Flott is competing for the slot job. He looked decent in limited usage last season.

Another possibility is that 2021 third-round pick Aaron Robinson could start outside. Robinson would need to return from the torn MCL that ended his 2022 season. He’s currently on the PUP list. If he returns, we could see either Banks or Jackson move inside to the slot.

2020 third-round pick free safety Xavier McKinney is returning from a serious hand injury. His good health would materially impact the defense.

Jason Pinnock appears to have the edge in replacing the departed Julian Love. Pinnock must look great in practice because he looks like shit on film. I wasn’t sad when the Jets waived him.

Other options include 2022 fourth-round pick Dane Belton, Bobby McCain, and converted cornerback Nick McCloud.

(Update: It’s indeed Pinnock. Welp 2.0!)

Punter Jamie Gillan is consistently lousy. I’d have been happy if the Giants had found a replacement. Kicker Graham Gano has been pretty good.

I’m still waiting for the Giants to find someone good to return kicks. Gary Brightwell isn’t it. Of course, better blocking would help.

Rookie fifth-round pick Eric Gray is being given the punt return job. Good luck, Mr. Gray.

When I look at the Giants’ offense I feel cautious optimism. It’s possible Jones builds off of last season. Darren Waller gives the offense a new dimension. Evan Neal can’t possibly be as bad this season. But then I look at the defense.

The secondary gives me the willies. The linebacker corps lacks depth. And the schedule is brutal. The Giants have games at Miami, Buffalo, and San Francisco. There’s a “home” game against the Jets. It’s going to be rough. 7-10.

Philadelphia Eagles:

2022 Record: 14-3

Projections:

Scouting Wins: 11.86

DVOA Wins: 10.0

FPI Wins: 10.35

Market Wins: 11.14

Implied Pythag: 68.66%

During the Eagles’ Super Bowl run there was a lot of discussion of how easy the Eagles’ schedule was. They had the easiest schedule in the league, that much was obvious. It was more a question of where it stood historically. That continued in the playoffs, where they got to face the Daniel Jones-led Giants, and then the 49ers, who ran out of quarterbacks. The Eagles led a charmed existence.

That looked like it might continue in the Super Bowl. Patrick Mahomes limped into halftime, with the Eagles up 24-14. Alas, despite one huge lucky break, the Eagles’ defense got toasted in the second half. They ended up falling a bit short. And yes, it really was holding.

There’s been some talk about Super Bowl hangovers for the losing team. I wouldn’t read too much into that. The Patriots lost to the Nick Foles-led Eagles and came back to beat the Rams the following season.

The Eagles do face a tougher schedule this year, but their luck continues. Against the AFC East, they get the top team (Buffalo) at home. Same with the NFC West (San Francisco). That latter matchup is key because it might determine home field advantage in the NFC. Dallas has to play both matchups on the road.

Side note: Using head-to-head as a tiebreaker is awful. It’s particularly bad when one team gets to use a win at home to earn another home game.

The path to home field advantage in the NFC runs through Philadelphia. Last season, the Eagles only lost two games started by Jalen Hurts:

2021: 3,144 yards, 16 TD, 9 INT, 6.6 NY/P, -0.3% DVOA, 508 DYAR (in 15 games)

2022: 3,701 yards, 22 TD, 6 INT, 7.0 NY/P, 10.6% DVOA, 836 DYAR (in 15 games)

When the Eagles lost to Tampa Bay, ending their 2021 season, the Buccaneers crowded the line. They dared Hurts to beat them with his arm. Hurts and the Eagles took that to heart, acquiring star wide receiver A.J. Brown to start across from 2021 first-round pick DeVonta Smith. Brown was a revelation in Philadelphia:

2019: 52 receptions, 1,051 yards, +0.8 +/-, 26.2% DVOA, 251 DYAR

2020: 70 receptions, 1,075 yards, +3.6 +/-, 25.0% DVOA, 332 DYAR (in 14 games)

2021: 63 receptions, 869 yards, -1.5 +/-, 1.2% DVOA, 112 DYAR (in 13 games)

2022: 88 receptions, 1496 yards, +4.1 +/-, 10.8% DVOA, 265 DYAR

The Eagles targeted Brown 8.5 times per game in the regular season. Brown was targeted eight times in the Super Bowl (six catches, 96 yards, 1 TD). His addition was a huge boon to the Eagles’ offense.

DeVonta Smith welcomed his presence:

2021: 64 receptions, 916 yards, +4.2 +/-, 7.7% DVOA, 166 DYAR

2022: 95 receptions, 1,196 yards, +5.0 +/-, 14.7% DVOA, 280 DYAR

When he came into the league, I was a tad worried that Smith’s thin frame might prove an issue. It hasn’t. Smith hasn’t missed a game. Smith & Brown is an elite pairing.

The tricky part is figuring out WR3. Incumbent 2020 sixth-round pick Quez Watkins quietly murdered the Eagles last season:

2022: 33 receptions, 354 yards, +0.4 +/-, -21.8% DVOA, -37 DYAR

Oof! Budget free-agent pickup Olamide Zaccheaus will get first crack at the job:

2022: 40 receptions, 533 yards, +1.3 +/-, 11.5% DVOA, 118 DYAR

Those are pretty good numbers when put into the context of Atlanta’s passing offense.

(Update: Both Watkins and Zaccheaus have dealt with nagging injuries this preseason. Whomever is healthier might win the job.)

#1TE Dallas Goedert has cemented his status among the elite:

2021: 56 receptions, 830 yards, +5.4 +/-, 34.7% DVOA, 220 DYAR (in 15 games)

2022: 55 receptions, 702 yards, +5.7 +/-, 36.0% DVOA, 204 DYAR (in 12 games)

Jack Stoll will provide depth.

Free-agent pickup D’Andre Swift will take over as the lead running back.

2022: 170 squid, 931 yards, 8.7% DVOA, 142 DYAR

2021 fifth-round pick Kenneth Gainwell was effective in limited use last season:

2022: 82 squid, 409 yards, 17.8% DVOA, 116 DYAR

Budget free-agent pick Rashaad Penny will provide depth.

One thing the Eagles have done well is not invest a ton of resources into their running backs. Jalen Hurts ran for 765 yards last season. The passing game and the read-option opens up space for the running backs to work in. They are a smart organization in a number of ways. This is just low-hanging fruit.

If you’re looking for weak links, left tackle Jordan Mailata was only average.

2021 second-round pick left guard Landon Dickerson did a decent job of preventing pressure, but at the expense of 14 penalties. League-average would have been a hair under six.

Center Jason Kelce also had a few more penalties than expected, but his blocking was elite so I’ll let it slide.

2022 second-round pick Tyler Jurgens is competing with rookie third-round pick Tyler Steen for the right guard job:

Tyler Steen: Steen is a converted defensive lineman who is still learning the nuances of playing on the offensive line. That’s why I feel bad suggesting the he might have to move inside in the NFL. Sub-33 inch arms are not what the NFL is looking for at tackle.

Steen improved quite a bit between his junior and senior seasons (which included a transfer from Vanderbilt to Alabama). On some plays, he looked great, easily handling the opposition. On others, he looked confused. My sense is if he gets a couple of years to learn how to play guard in the NFL, he’ll be able to hold down a starting job for years.

I am highly skeptical Steen will be able to stick at tackle. Long edge rushers will make first contact and put him at a disadvantage. It’s not clear to me he has the proper anchor to hold his own against the bull rush.

As a guard prospect, Steen looks good. We don’t have any film of him playing the position, though. As such, he’s a project. As with Bergeron, I’ll give him a third-round grade.

I’d give Jurgens the edge in this battle, as he has a year of practice under his belt.

(Update: Jurgens it is.)

Right tackle Lane Johnson finished eighth in my rankings. The dude can still play.

Johnson turned 33 in May. Kelce will turn 36 in November. The Eagles are hoping neither starts to slip. 2020 fourth-round pick Jack Driscoll will provide depth. He was not impressive last season.

Back during the 2022 NFL Draft, the New Orleans Saints made a number of trades that culminated in the selection of wide receiver Chris Olave. One of those trades left the Philadelphia Eagles with the Saints’ 2023 first-round pick. The Eagles were able to package that pick, along with a 2024 fourth-round pick, to move up from 10^th to 9^th to select defensive tackle Jalen Carter:

Jalen Carter: After the National Championship Game, Jalen Carter was solidly the top non-QB prospect heading into the 2023 NFL Draft. Sure, positional value might have pushed Will Anderson ahead of Carter on some draft boards, but in terms of raw grade, Carter was king.

On January 15th, Jalen Carter raced Chandler LeCroy (who was drunk). LeCroy crashed. She, along with Devin Willock, died in the crash. While Carter’s attorney Kim Stephens has claimed he was sober, that’s a claim she has to make for legal reasons and is not something NFL teams will readily believe.

Carter has pled guilty to reckless driving. The legal ramifications will not derail his career, but concerns about alcohol and poor judgment remain. Henry Ruggs III remains fresh in recent memory.

It has become an axiom in the NFL that talent = tolerance. The greater the talent, the more tolerance teams will have for your… issues. With that in mind, I’m sure Carter was looking forward to having a monster pro-day. Instead, he appeared slow and out of shape. Carter skipped drills at the combine, so we don’t have an athletic score for him.

What Carter has going for him is his film. Think of an MLB hitter who crushes mistakes. Carter explodes off the snap and punishes guards who aren’t ready. He’s excellent at lowering his center of gravity to make it difficult for double-teams to move him. He has good technique when attacking double-teams. Elite power makes it difficult for guards to hold their ground in single-blocking. Fantastic closer. Does a great job at taking proper angles when tackling. Solid functional strength makes it difficult for ball-carriers to escape his grasp.

Physically, Carter is close to the prototype. He has the power to stuff the run and the athletic skills to rush the passer. He’s a true difference-maker, with the potential to justify comparisons to Chris Jones, or perhaps even Aaron Donald.

The tape suggests he does a good job in the film room and listens to his coaches. As a player, his weaknesses mostly have to do with conditioning. He wore down against Ohio State. This is an area he’ll have to work on at the next level.

As per George Young’s planet theory, there simply aren’t many people on the planet capable of dominating in the trenches. He’s one of them. I acknowledge that Carter presents multiple bust traits between his off-field issues and his lack of commitment to get into peak condition. For a lesser talent, this would be devastating. For Carter, it means he’s unlikely to be the first defensive player taken. I’d be quite comfortable making him either the first or second defensive player off the board (other than Will Anderson). Solid top-five value.

The Eagles had a Javon Hargave-sized hole in their defensive line and were able to fill it with arguably the top defensive player in the draft. Wow! I’m not expecting Carter to replicate Hargrave’s 11 sacks, 33 hits+hurries. That’s an unreasonable ask. Carter’s addition turns what could have been a large decline into a small one.

I’m not going to pretend that NFL franchises care about off-field incidents, apart from potential PR hits. It’s still amazing to me that such an elite prospect fell so far in the draft only to land in the perfect spot. Carter is joining the NFC Champions. Atlanta selected a running back ahead of him. It’s…

How do I put this… There’s a reason some teams have better long-term results than others.

Carter will be joining Fletcher Cox (seven sacks, 27 hits+hurries) and 2022 first-round pick nose tackle Jordan Davis. This is still a stacked defensive line. 2021 third-round pick Milton Williams (four sacks, nine hits+hurries) and budget free-agent pickup Kentavius Street (3.5 sacks, 15 hits+hurries) will provide depth.

Last season, the Eagles had 70 sacks. That was two short of the record set by the 1984 Bears. It helped that the Eagles faced a lot of terrible quarterbacks and usually had the lead. Expect some regression to the mean in 2023.

Edge-rusher Haasan Reddick had a monster season (16 sacks, 69 hits+hurries). Josh Sweat (11 sacks, 39 hits+hurries) and Brandon Graham (11 sacks, 37 hits+hurries) were effective as well. They’ll be joined by rookie first-round pick Nolan Smith:

Nolan Smith: What in the world?! 4.39 at 238 is obscene. This might give you the expectation that Smith was an undersized pass-rush specialist who struggled against the run. Oddly, it was the opposite. Smith was a plus run defender who only pulled in 6.5 sacks in his final 22 games.

I’m not sure how much to read into Smith’s low sack total. He was often asked to drop back into coverage. That limited his opportunities to rush the passer. However, this raises the question of why didn’t the coaching staff want him more focused on creating pressure off the edge?

Smith is recovering from a pectoral injury that ended his 2022 season. It is not expected to slow him down in the NFL.

Smith has the traits to be an elite edge. He has the speed to beat tackles and the bend to win if initially blocked. He needs to improve his variety and technique. That’s what coaches are paid to teach.

I’m a bit concerned that Smith doesn’t have the power to avoid wearing down over a full NFL season. Wear and tear happens on both sides of the ball. Speed aside, Smith is going to be asked to trade blows with offensive linemen north of 300. I wonder if the UGA coaching staff was on to something, saving Smith and using his versatility.

Having said that, Smith’s ceiling is either an elite pass-rush specialist or quality three-down defender. He’s not the first Georgia defender who was projected to put up better pass-rush numbers in the NFL than he did in college. SackSEER is cool on Smith. I’m more optimistic and would be fine taking him in the same range as Murphy and Wilson.

From my draft snippets:

30. Philadelphia Eagles: Edge Nolan Smith: Whoa boy. Before the draft Smith was favored to go in the top-12. Obviously, a lot of teams had to pass on Smith for him to fall to the Eagles. Perhaps he was overrated in the pre-draft process. Regardless, the Eagles picked up a potentially elite pass-rusher to go along with their premium defensive tackle. Note, both players are from Georgia. This was an impressive haul for a team that just went to the Super Bowl.

Derek Barnett tore his ACL week one. He’ll try to rejoin the pass-rush rotation when healthy.

(Update: Barnett is on the active roster.)

The Eagles are replacing departed off-ball linebackers T.J. Edwards and Kyzir White. Both were good in coverage. Edwards was pretty great overall.

Free-agent pickup Zach Cunningham will start alongside 2022 third-round pick Nakobe Dean. Dean fell in the draft due to medical red flags. He was a non-factor for the Eagles’ defense last season. Hopefully, the former Butkus Award winner is ready to start. Cunningham seemed fine in a small sample in Tennessee.

As you might imagine, depth here is a little thin. In theory, a team could hide a lack of depth at linebacker by playing a fair amount of base nickel, but the Eagles are also thin at safety. This will be something to keep an eye on.

It looks like free-agent pickup strong safety Terrell Edmunds will start alongside 2022 undrafted free-agent free safety Reed Blankenship. Blankenship was a pleasant surprise in limited usage last season. Edmunds comes at a reasonable price. I’m not sure he’s worthy of a starting spot. He did some decent work in run support last season. Opponents will look to test both safeties in coverage.

Rookie third-round pick Sydney Brown will provide depth:

Sydney Brown: If you want a safety with some speed, Brown has you covered. He had six interceptions last season, two for touchdowns. Brown played mostly in the slot or as a box safety, but has played deep.

He flies around the field when attacking the ballcarrier and goes for big hits more than he should, which leads to some missed tackles. It also leads to some big hits though, which is nice. His technique will likely improve in the NFL. To be frank, it better, as he can’t get away with as many missed tackles as he had in college.

My sense is Brown has a fair amount of upside. He’s capable of developing into a quality ballhawk. I’d be comfortable taking him in the third round.

(Editor’s note: Brown has been healthy the past few seasons. Prior to that he had issues with concussions. It’s something teams will keep in mind when evaluating him.)

I’m guessing that if Brown impresses the Eagles, he’ll see significant playing time.

Cornerback James Bradbury put up dominant numbers last season. It’s difficult for me to determine how much of his success was due to the elite pass-rush. He tested free agency, then re-signed with the Eagles for 3/38, $20M guaranteed.

Cornerback Darius Slay put up very good numbers as well. He’s in the final year of his deal and asked for an extension. The Eagles gave his agent the authority to seek a trade. That didn’t work out, so Slay signed an extension with $23M in guaranteed money. As with Bradbury, it’s tricky to know how much of Slay’s success should be attributed to the front-seven.

Nickelback Avonte Maddux has had difficulty staying healthy. He’s a fine slot cornerback, but the Eagles can’t trust that he’ll be available for seventeen games. Enter rookie fourth-round pick Kelee Ringo:

Kelee Ringo: Elite size and speed. Four interceptions on 123 targets over the past two seasons (-22.9 EPA, -0.19 EPA-per-target.) That does not take into account his nine flags last season.

I’m wondering if the difference between college and NFL DPI is such that college coaches teach their cornerbacks to risk the flag in order to avoid giving up big plays? It’s a tradeoff. Obviously, they don’t like giving up 15 yards and an automatic first down, but the risk-reward is quite different between college and the pros.

Regardless, it’s an issue I’m confident Ringo can fix. Ringo has the speed and flexibility to be an elite cover-corner in the NFL. He’ll need to improve his route recognition. It was a notable problem and the one area where he looked slow on film. Opponents took advantage of this, breaking open with quick cuts that generated more separation than they deserved. More reps will help here.

Ringo was a decent tackler in the running game. He was surprisingly passive, although it’s possible he was instructed to keep the ball-carrier in front of him so that the rest of the defense could assist. He has the size and power to be more aggressive.

Ringo is surprisingly raw for someone who was a key contributor for Georgia the last two seasons. Having said that, he’ll turn 21 in June and has enormous upside. He’ll require some time to develop and take his lumps early. A first-round talent worthy of a selection late in the round.

I have no idea why Ringo fell to day three. I know that he looks like a huge steal from here.

Josiah Scott will provide depth.

Kicker Jake Elliott is pretty good. Punter Arryn Siposs is mediocre. Return specialist Britain Covey will handle both kickoffs and punts. Boston Scott will handle kickoffs as well. I’m fine with either of them. The Eagles have looked at DeVonta Smith on punt returns. I… would not recommend that, for injury prevention reasons.

The Eagles had a tremendous draft. They lost a fair amount of talent this offseason. I’m impressed at how well they replenished. With A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert, the offense looks dangerous. I’ll admit, there are not a lot of trust targets beyond those three. Still, Jalen Hurts should remain effective.

The defense might be soft at linebacker and safety. The pass-rush still appears formidable. The Eagles look like they are still the class of the NFC. The Cowboys and 49ers have their work cut out for them. 12-5.

Washington Commanders:

2022 Record: 8-8-1

Projections:

Scouting Wins: 6.06

DVOA Wins: 7.60

FPI Wins: 6.35

Market Wins: 6.44

Implied Pythag: 41.02%

Washington, in all of their various incarnations, has not won a Divisional Round playoff game since January 4^th, 1992. The odds of that happening by random chance are less than 2%. It’s possible that during that time Washington has not had good ownership. Perhaps Josh Harris will be an improvement on his predecessor.

It feels odd to say, but Washington won a huge pre-season game vs. Baltimore, ending the Ravens’ 24-game winning streak. Quarterback Sam Howell won the starting job, partially off of that performance. Heading into the 2022 draft, I had faith that Sam Howell could be a successful NFL quarterback. I still do.

Free-agent pickup backup quarterback Jacoby Brissett is coming off of his best season:

2022: 2,608 yards, 12 TD, 6 INT, 6.3 NY/P, 13.0% DVOA, 707 DYAR (in 16 games)

Don’t get too excited. He produced -224 in his previous 22 games. This appears to be Howell’s team.

Washington’s quarterbacks combined for -131 passing DYAR last season. That should provide context for what Terry McLaurin accomplished:

2022: 77 receptions, 1,191 yards, +4.1 +/-, 20.0% DVOA, 309 DYAR

Wowsers! McLaurin is a legitimate deep threat and a top-tier wideout.

2022 first-round pick Jahan Dotson closed strong last season:

2022: 35 receptions, 523 yards, +0.8 +/-, 12.4% DVOA, 121 DYAR (in 12 games)

Dotson worked outside slightly more often than he worked from the slot. However, he was much more effective from the slot. We’ll see how Washington uses him going forward.

Curtis Samuel would appear to have the slot job nailed down:

2022: 64 receptions, 656 yards, +3.0 +/-, -4.2% DVOA, 61 DYAR

He too was much more effective from the slot, but, cheat code, limited resource, yada, yada, yada.

2021 third-round pick Dyami Brown has inherited the WR4 job. He only had five catches last season, although two were for touchdowns. He played with Howell at North Carolina, so perhaps they will jell.

Budget free-agent pickup Byron Pringle will provide depth.

In 2022, the Commanders’ tight ends collectively produced -135 DYAR on 98 targets (-28.4% DVOA). #1TE Logan Thomas has dealt with multiple calf strains. He also tore his ACL in 2021. At least 2021 fourth-round pick John Bates is a decent blocker. That might be all Washington asks from its tight ends this season.

2022 third-round pick running back Brian Robinson did his best after coming back from getting shot in the leg:

2022: 217 squid, 857 yards, -12.1% DVOA, -26 DYAR (in 12 games)

2020 third-round pick Antonio Gibson only fared slightly better:

2022: 207 squid, 899 yards, -8.8% DVOA, 37 DYAR

Gibson was an effective receiver (11.6% DVOA, 89 DYAR), but like Robinson, struggled running the ball. Washington produced -68 DYAR rushing last season. It’s just one of the many areas new offensive coordinator Eric Beiniemy will try to work on.

I’m still a fan of left tackle Charles Leno. He finished just outside of my top ten.

2020 fourth-round pick Saahdiq Charles got demolished in a small sample at right guard last season. He’s Washington’s likely starter at left guard this year. Gulp!

Free-agent pickup Nick Gates will start at center while rookie third-round pick Ricky Stromberg develops:

Ricky Stromberg: Perhaps a tad undersized, with good length. Stromberg faced some very tough competition over his career at Arkansas. I can’t say he won his battles vs. the best of the best. I can say he didn’t get demolished and looks like he’ll be able to handle the competition he’ll face in the NFL.

Stromberg did fine work in the running game. He flashed impressive power. His technique also improved quite a bit over his college career.

In the passing game, he did a better job matching up against speed than he did against raw power. That ties back into him being potentially undersized relative to the NFL prototype. He’ll need to go to a team where he’s a good fit for their system. I’ll note that we’ve seen NFL centers under 300 pounds. Stromgberg should be able to find a job.

He does have some experience at guard, which should be handy if he starts his career as a backup. I expect Stromberg to earn a starting center job during his rookie contract. Late fourth-round value.

Gates did not impress me in a small sample last season. I’m a bit curious what the plan is here, as Gates is signed for three years. Perhaps Gates will switch back to playing guard when Stromberg is ready to start.

2021 second-round pick Sam Cosmi struggled at right tackle last year. He’s moving to right guard.

Free-agent pickup Andrew Wylie will start at right tackle. I thought he played poorly in Kansas City.

Backup Cornelius Lucas is awful. Rookie fourth-round pick Braeden Daniels will provide depth. Daniels played tackle at Utah, but he might have to move inside in the NFL. He’s a good athlete but undersized.

I have to say I am concerned about this offensive line.

Washington’s defense was quite good last season, finishing ninth in DVOA. It was led by defensive tackles Daron Payne (11.5 sacks, 34 hits+hurries) and Jonathan Allen (7.5 sacks, 32 hits+hurries).

Defensive ends Montez Sweat (eight sacks, 68 hits+hurries, and 2020 seventh-round pick James Smith-Williams (three sacks, 42 hits+hurries) contributed as well.

Washington had to make a decision about 2020 first-round pick Chase Young. He had an awesome rookie season (7.5 sacks, 36 hits+hurries) while facing significant blocking attention. Since then, Young has only managed 1.5 sacks. He’s missed 22 games due to knee issues. He’s been slowed this preseason by a stinger. Washington declined to pick up his fifth-year option.

It’s a contract year, so I’m sure Young try his best. He’ll start across from Sweat.

2022 second-round pick Phidarian Mathis suffered a week one knee injury that ended his rookie campaign. Washington would love it if he were able to provide depth at tackle. He’s been dealing with calf injuries this preseason.

Apart from Mathis, John Ridgeway and free-agent pickup Abdullah Anderson will provide depth inside.

(Update: Mathis will start the season on IR.)

Efe Obada (four sacks, 18 hits+hurries) and Casey Toohill (one sack, 11 hits+hurries) will provide depth at end.

(Updade: Obada will start the season on IR.)

2021 first-round pick linebacker Jamin Davis bounced back from a terrible rookie season. He did a fine job in coverage and was effective when he attacked the line of scrimmage.

He’ll be joined by free-agent pickup Cody Barton in the base 4-2-5. Barton did a decent job in Seattle last season. David Mayo will provide depth.

I was generally happy with #1CB Kendall Fuller’s play last season. He’ll start across from rookie first-round pick Emmanuel Forbes:

Emmanuel Forbes: My word. Forbes is faster and thinner than Cam Smith. Forbes had 14 interceptions in his three-year college career. That’s incredible. He produced -28.9 EPA in his 43 targets last season (-0.67 EPA-per-target.) Perhaps most impressively, he made 150 tackles in his college career. At 166 pounds. Wowsers.

It gets better. He returned six of his interceptions for touchdowns. He breaks up a ton of passes. His read and recognition skills are elite. Forbes runs fast, thinks fast, and plays fast.

Forbes projects best as a zone corner where his ability to jump routes will force quarterbacks to make tough throws. He can also play off-man and read and react.

His run support skills have obvious limitations. Having said that, the effort was there, as was the backside pursuit. He’s better in this regard than you might expect.

NFL quarterbacks will try to take advantages of his aggressiveness and bait him with double moves. He’ll learn. I won’t lie: I loved his film. I think Forbes can eventually be a #1CB in the NFL. I acknowledge it’s a slight reach, but I’d be comfortable taking Forbes late in the first-round. Great value if he falls to day two.

Washington took Forbes at 16. Fair enough. I hope he works out for them.

Washington also reached with their second-round selection of Jartavius (Quan) Martin. Washington looks to want to use Martin as a slot nickelback. He’s athletic but undersized. I have difficulty envisioning him sticking at safety, so this might be his best use.

Martin is competing with 2021 third-round pick Benjamin St-Juste. St-Juste surrendered too many big plays for my liking. He’ll need to tighten his play to keep Martin on the bench.

Safeties 2020 seventh-round pick Kamren Curl and 2021 fifth-round pick Darrick Forrest both played well last season. Curl has developed into a quality player and will be looking to earn a significant raise. I’ve been impressed by his sure-tackling skills.

Forrest did a commendable job in coverage. This is a nice pairing.

2022 fourth-round pick Percy Butler will continue to provide depth.

Both punter Tress Way and his coverage team did an excellent job last season. Washington’s coverage was also solid on kickoffs. Kicker Joey Slye was a tad inconsistent on field goals, but not so much that it was worth looking to replace him.

Washington has a number of mediocre options for returning kicks and punts. Dax Milne and Antonio Gibson currently hold the respective jobs.

The Commanders are effectively starting a rookie quarterback. Howell has very little NFL experience, so the goal needs to be development. They aren’t in “win now” mode. However, offensive coordinator Eric Beiniemy came to Washington to prove he can be the one responsible for a team’s offensive success. Looking at this roster, I feel like that will be a challenge.

On the plus side, the defensive line looks strong. Washington’s defense should be able to keep games close. I just don’t have much faith that the offense will be able to capitalize. 6-11.

NFC Playoff Standings:

Philadelphia Eagles: 12-5
San Francisco 49ers: 11-6
New Orleans Saints: 10-7
Detroit Lions: 10-7
Dallas Cowboys: 11-6
Seattle Seahawks: 9-8
Atlanta Falcons: 9-8

NFC Wildcard Round:

Atlanta Falcons @ San Francisco 49ers

One day a seven seed will upset a two seed in the NFL playoffs. Not this time. 49ers 27, Falcons 13.

Dallas Cowboys @ Detroit Lions

Amazingly, the last time the Lions won a playoff game at home, it was against the Cowboys. The Cowboys get their revenge. Cowboys 21, Lions 20.

Seattle Seahawks @ New Orleans Saints

Perhaps the NFC South is the new AFC South. This looks like a 4 PM Saturday matchup. The Saints get the best of the Seahawks. Saints 30, Seahawks 20.

NFC Divisional Round:

Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles

I’m sure the Eagles would prefer to face the Saints, but rules are rules. Philadelphia wins a brutal slugfest. Eagles 23, Cowboys 20.

New Orleans Saints @ San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers charmed path continues. 49ers 31 Saints 20.

NFC Championship Game:

San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles

The 49ers are no strangers to NFC Championship game rematches. They faced the Cowboys in the first two NFC Championship games (losing both), and once faced Dallas three times in a row (losing twice). They’ve also lost the last two NFC Championship games. This one should be a fair fight, but the Eagles have homefield advantage. Philadelphia’s pass-rush disrupts the 49ers offense just enough to get back to the Super Bowl. Eagles 27, 49ers 24.

Yes, I am predicting an NFC Championship rematch, with the same result. I’m no happier about this than you are. Will the Eagles lose two Super Bowls in a row? Or will they finish the job this time? I’ll share my thoughts with the AFC Preview.

2023 NFL Preview: NFC North

September 4, 2023

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NFC North:

Detroit Lions: 10-7

Green Bay Packers: 8-9

Minnesota Vikings: 8-9

Chicago Bears: 8-9

Chicago Bears:

2022 Record: 3-14

Projections:

Scouting Wins: 8.43

DVOA Wins: 5.4

FPI Wins: 7.8

Market Wins: 7.74

Implied Pythag: 43.28%

Heading into last season, I felt like the new Bears regime was setting up Justin Fields to fail. They gave him few weapons to work with. They also saddled him with a terrible offensive line. Good veteran quarterbacks would have found it difficult to keep the Bears’ offense moving. Fields was placed in an untenable situation. What he did was… kind of amazing:

2021: 1,870 yards, 7 TD, 10 INT, 5.3 NY/P, -28.4% DVOA, -332 DYAR (in 12 games)

2022: 2,242 yards, 17 TD, 11 INT, 5.0 NY/P, -34.5% DVOA, -372 DYAR (in 15 games)

With that statistical performance, Fields pulled of:

NFC Player of the Week

An MVP vote

The first overall pick in the draft

Fields rushed for 1,134 yards, which has given the fanbase hope. Additionally, the Bears were able to turn the 1^st pick into the 9^th and 61^st picks, as well as a 2024 first-round and a 2025 second-round pick. Finally, the Bears also acquired #1WR D.J. Moore:

2022: 63 receptions, 888 yards, -3.3 +/-, -9.1% DVOA, 34 DYAR

Moore was dealing with awful quarterback play in Carolina. He’s the best weapon Fields will have had in the NFL.

The Bears flipped the #9 pick into the #10 pick and Philadelphia’s 2024 fourth-round pick. With this year’s selection, they added offensive tackle Darnell Wright:

Darnell Wright: I’m not sure what I was expecting from Darnell Wright at the combine, but this wasn’t it. On film, Wright flashed incredible power and questionable athleticism. Wright played right tackle in 2020, flipped over to left tackle in 2021, and bounced back to right tackle in 2022. Wright finally reached his potential last season and made First-Team All-SEC.

Wright is a rare case where he might get a shot at left tackle, stick at right tackle, or perhaps even be moved inside to guard. Sub-34 inch arms make his NFL position a question. My best guess is that he’ll be able to stay at right tackle. Wright has NFL-level power and showed he could pass protect against the elite on the right side.

Wright gets himself in trouble sometimes when he looks to bully an opponent instead of merely staying in front of him. His technique will sharpen with more experience. There simply aren’t many men with Wright’s mix of size and power who can dominate in the trenches.

I appreciate that right tackle does not have the positional value of left tackle. Even so, I’m comfortable using a late first-round pick on Wright. He was genuinely impressive in 2022 and if he fits your scheme, he should be a quality addition for years to come.

Fields has crawled through two years of excrement and may end up coming out clean in the end. He effectively forced the Bears to build around him. Mind you, there was a bit of luck involved. Lovie Smith leading the Texans to a week 18 win in Indianapolis helped the Bears secure the #1 pick. A wonderful parting gift to Chicago from their former head coach.

One last note on Fields: It might not be obvious from his stats, but he improved quite a bit from 2021 to 2022. He still needs to become more accurate. Perhaps having better protection and better weapons will lead to continued growth from Fields.

DJ Moore wasn’t the Bears’ only trade acquisition. They also gave up a second-round pick for Chase Claypool:

2022: 46 receptions, 451 yards, -3.5 +/-, -22.3% DVOA, -59 DYAR (in 15 games)

That combines his time in Pittsburgh with his time in Chicago. Rest assured, he was awful in Chicago last season. He’s been dealing with a leg injury this offseason. This is the final season of Claypool’s rookie deal. If he wants to get paid, he has to perform.

2020 fifth-round pick Darnell Mooney has been the one consistent target:

2021: 81 receptions, 1,055 yards, -5.2 +/-, -7.9% DVOA, 54 DYAR

2022 40 receptions, 493 yards, +2.5 +/-, -4.9% DVOA, 38 DYAR (in 12 games)

When put into context of the Bears’ offense, those are great numbers. If Moore and Claypool can take the heat off of Mooney, he can do real damage in the slot.

Equanimeous St. Brown did a decent job in limited usage last season:

2022: 21 receptions, 323 yards, -2.1 +/-, -3.7% DVOA, 27 DYAR (in 16 games)

He was “clutch” in a small sample, so don’t look for him to increase his playing time in an increasingly crowded unit.

2022 second-round pick Velus Jones was drafted for his special teams value. He missed time with injuries, missed time with fumbles, and then broke a few big plays. He remains the Bears’ return man for both kicks and punts.

Rookie fourth-round pick Tyler Scott gives the Bears another intriguing option:

Tyler Scott: Given his athletic profile you might have expected Scott to be a speedy slot receiver. That was not the case, as he dominated outside at Cincinnati:

2021: 47 targets, 30 receptions, 520 yards, 5 TD’s, 19.9 EPA, 2 drops

2022: 88 targets, 54 receptions, 899 yards, 9 TD’s, 29.7 EPA 7 drops

Scott has smallish hands, so drops might be a concern in the NFL. Additionally, there’s some question of whether or not he’ll be able to stick as an outside receiver. He doesn’t have much experience working from the slot, so there might be a learning curve if he’s forced to switch. However, I have a different concern.

In college his average touchdown length was 44.6 yards. This was mainly a function of two things:

1. His speed advantage

2. Cincinnati’s coaching staff regularly pantsing the opposition

These things should not be held against him. Scott’s speed will still challenge defenses in the NFL. However, the step up in difficulty will make it tougher for him to create the kind of separation he saw in college.

As for the coaching advantage, that’s up to the team that drafts him.

The main takeaway here is that I’m probably underestimating him due to his size. That’s probably an anachronistic weakness of my grading system. The NFL has done quite a bit to make the game safer. As such, smaller, more athletic players are now able to succeed and stay healthy. Drops aside, Scott can play. Worth a pick around the middle of round three.

My main concern for Scott in Chicago is that he presents a smaller target for Fields. That will be less of an issue if he can continue to generate separation. I liked this selection.

2020 second-round pick #1TE Cole Kmet is coming off of a monster season (when put into context):

2022: 50 receptions, 544 yards, +2.7 +/-, 11.4% DVOA, 86 DYAR

With the addition of Moore and an improved offensive line, the Bears are looking for cascade effects. Hopefully Moore draws more defensive attention, thus freeing up space for the other receivers to work in. Kmet was able to perform when times were tough. We’ll see what he’s capable now that the Bears might have a real offense.

Robert Tonyan and Marcedes Lewis will provide depth.

2021 second-round pick Khalil Herbert is taking over as the new #1RB:

2022: 141 squid, 788 yards, 14.3% DVOA, 126 DYAR (in 13 games)

Herbert worked well on option and misdirection plays. Fields being a legitimate threat to run opened up space for Herbert. The disadvantage they faced is that the lack of respect for the passing game meant they faced loaded boxes. Expect more of the same this year unless Fields takes major steps forward as a passer.

Free-agent pickup D’Onta Foreman and rookie fourth-round pick Roschon Johnson will provide depth. Johnson is a throwback. He’s a good blocker, trustworthy in pass protection, and runs forward into the hole with ferocity. I don’t want to overstate his skills. He’s not going to break many big plays, and short yardage specialists generally aren’t a thing. Johnson is the proverbial “fungible RB” who does his job.

There are two ways to view the performance of 2022 fifth-round pick left tackle Braxton Jones. On one hand, he got his ass kicked last season. On the other hand, he was a rookie fifth-round pick who started seventeen games at left tackle. The Bears are hoping it was a learning experience. It better be, or else Justin Fields needs to put in a call to OSHA for a workplace safety violation.

2021 second-round pick Tevon Jenkins is moving to left guard. He did a decent job at right guard last season.

(Update: Jenkins will start the season on injured reserve.)

Cody Whitehair is moving over from left guard to center. He finished second in my positional rankings last year. I presume he’ll be able to handle the transition.

(Update: Whitehair will likely start the season at left guard with Jenkins out. Lucas Patrick will start at center. Patrick was fine in limited usage last season.)

Premium free-agent pickup Nate Davis is taking over at right guard. I thought he was solid in Tennessee.

Between Davis and rookie Darnell Wright, the right side of the Bears’ offensive line has been rebuilt. It should end up being an upgrade. The real gains will come if left tackle Braxton Jones has developed with experience.

The offensive line depth is mostly untested, or tested poorly. This could prove to be a problem.

One thing I should note is Justin Fields has… well, how do I describe this… Think of an awesome running back with a poor passing game. That player will generally face eight men in the box. That’s Justin Fields all by his lonesome. A quarterback with a weak arm will also generally bring the defense forward. That’s NOT his issue.

His issue is that the defense is more threatened by his legs than by his arm. It makes his rushing success look more impressive in that context. The reason I bring this up is that if Fields does develop his passing skills, it will change the entire defensive focus. I think of the concept like gravity. Fields currently has a gravitational pull towards the line of scrimmage. If he becomes a complete player, that will change.

Last season, the Bears’ pass rush was anemic. They signed free agent defensive ends DeMarcus Walker (seven sacks, 21 hits+hurries) and Yannick Ngakoue (9.5 sacks, 35 hits+hurries) to upgrade it. Budget free-agent pickup Rasheem Green (3.5 sacks, 18 hits+hurries), 2020 fifth-round pick Trevis Gipson (three sacks, 25 hits+hurries), and 2022 fifth-round pick Dominique Robinson (1.5 sacks, 9 hits+hurries) will provide depth.

Defensive tackle Justin Jones (three sacks, 17 hits+hurries) will pair with free-agent pickup nose tackle Andrew Billings. Billings is mostly a space-eater. Rookie second-round pick Gervon Dexter and rookie third-round pick Zacch Pickens will provide depth:

Zacch Pickens: Good athlete, if a tad undersized. Nice length allows him to win on first contact. 6.5 sacks over the past two seasons, but not as much pressure as I would have expected.

It was kind of weird. Pickens would have a great reaction time off of the snap, and then… not much? He’d get his arms on the offensive lineman, but wouldn’t have the power to blow him off the line. Or the explosiveness to knife past him.

He doesn’t have the size or power to hold his own vs. double teams, so he’ll need to become more evasive.

I view Pickens as a rotational player with limited upside. I’d be fine taking him in the back half of round three.

As for Dexter, he tested well but looked glacially slow off the snap. I was shocked he went so early. He definitely looks the part, so perhaps the Bears have a plan to get the most out of him.

Premium free-agent pickups T.J. Edwards and Tremaine Edmunds will take over as the Bears’ starting linebackers in the base 4-2-5. Edmunds in particular was a huge addition. He’s an elite inside linebacker who excelled in coverage. Edwards was very good in coverage as well. This is a solid pairing.

My concern is that the Bears’ front… seven(?) is lacking an elite pass-rusher. Jack Sanborn will start in the base 4-3, but he only had two sacks last season (four hits+hurries). The Bears will need someone beyond Ngakoue and Walker to step up.

Rookie fifth-round pick Noah Sewell will provide depth:

Noah Sewell: Decent size, but only mediocre athleticism. Good stopping power. Sewell is a bit of an old school Mike. The problem is those are becoming an endangered species. Sewell only had 56 tackles in 12 games last season. He doesn’t have elite range, nor does he play fast.

Having said all of that, Sewell does have some strengths. He does a fine job of blitzing, particularly off of the edge. He can hold his ground vs. blocking. He had four sacks and 114 tackles in 14 games in 2021.

Sewell doesn’t have the range teams look for in coverage. He’ll have to make his living in the box, attacking the line of scrimmage. It’s possible that he played through nagging injuries in 2022 as he didn’t look to have NFL-level athleticism. Sewell is a round-four prospect for me as an early-downs linebacker.

The Bears’ atrocious pass-rush left the secondary out to dry. It should be slightly better this season. 2020 second-round pick Jaylon Johnson will start across from rookie second-round pick Tyrique Stevenson:

Close to prototype size and speed. Stevenson played two years at Georgia, mostly at safety. He transferred to Miami to play cornerback and for his final two years of college he did a fine job of it (3 interceptions, 80 targets, -28.8 EPA, -0.36 EPA-per-target.) No issues with flags either, only picking up one in two seasons.

Stevenson projects as a press-man cornerback. He has the power to jam receivers and deny them a free release. He had college-level closing speed. I’m a bit concerned that he’ll get a rude awakening when he tries to make up ground against NFL receivers.

His run support skills should be much better than they are. He has the strength to make an impact here. However, he didn’t seem particularly engaged unless it was clear that he was the next line of defense. Even then, his technique was poor. There are smaller players who gave much better effort in this regard.

There’s one other issue. Stevenson sometimes looked completely lost in zone coverage. I’m not sure if he was just taking plays off or didn’t grok his responsibilities. It’s something that he’ll need to clean up in the pros.

I’m torn on Stevenson. He put up good results at Miami. The zone issues might be fixable. Same with his run support. What I can’t get past is the sense that he’ll get exposed at the next level. His college stats and combine results say he’s a mid-day two pick. I’m not buying it. I wouldn’t touch him until day three.

Johnson does a decent job of coverage. Stevenson will have to face a trial-by-fire. They’ll be joined by 2022 second-round pick slot cornerback Kyler Gordon. It’s a good thing that Gordon snagged three interceptions, because otherwise his coverage numbers were awful.

This is a young trio. It might be an overmatched trio. We’ll see. There isn’t much depth here. 2022 undrafted free-agent Jaylon Jones and rookie fifth-round pick Terell Smith are competing for the dime job. *Gulp*

In keeping with the youth theme, 2022 second-round pick strong safety Jaquan Brisker is back after a tough rookie season during which he faced hand and concussion issues. Brisker is a good athlete but a tad undersized. This secondary as a whole is poor at tackling.

Free safety Eddie Jackson had four interceptions in twelve games last season. He missed the final five games with a Lisfranc injury. His return should help stabilize the defense.

As with the cornerbacks, there’s not much depth at safety.

Kicker Cairo Santos was solid last season. 2022 seventh-round pick punter Trenton Gill was decent. He focused on hang time, which is fine, but a little more distance would be nice.

There’s still some question as to who will handle returns. Velus Jones is an option for both jobs. Trent Taylor and Tyler Scott are possibilities as well.

I am surprised at how much I like the Bears’ starting lineup and how dissatisfied I am with their depth. In retrospect, I can see how they finished with the worst record in the NFL last season. Having said that, the offense looks much improved. The offensive line has been upgraded. Same with the receiver corps. Justin Fields will finally get a real chance to succeed. The pressure is on.

The defense is still pretty thin. It was awful last season. The Bears would probably settle for lousy in 2023. With good health, that’s a possibility. Or some key players could get hurt, and opponents would target the pigeons. We’ll see.

Ultimately I have faith that Fields will lead the offense to respectability. The schedule is reasonable. A winning record might be a tough ask, but eight wins is within range. 8-9.

Detroit Lions:

2022 Record: 9-8

Projections:

Scouting Wins: 7.68

DVOA Wins: 9.70

FPI Wins: 9.40

Market Wins: 9.49

Implied Pythag: 56.29%

NFC North favorites? It’s an unusual situation for Detroit. Green Bay has moved on from Rodgers. Minnesota is beatable. The Lions look ready to return to the postseason. One major reason is the resurgence of quarterback Jared Goff. Let’s recap his final two seasons in Los Angeles:

2019: 4,638 yards, 22 TD, 16 INT, 6.9 NY/P, 2.0% DVOA, 520 DYAR

2020: 3,952 yards, 20 TD, 13 INT, 6.6 NY/P, -1.1% DVOA, 379 DYAR (in 15 games)

This was with coach Sean McVay doing everything he could to make sure Goff was playing in easy mode. The Rams traded Goff and two first-round picks to acquire quarterback Matthew Stafford. They promptly won the Super Bowl and have since collapsed. They’ll take it. As for Goff, his first year in Detroit wasn’t inspiring:

2021: 3,245 yards, 19 TD, 8 INT, 5.6 NY/P, -3.6% DVOA, 200 DYAR (in 14 games)

Due to the nature of his contract, it would have been a salary cap nightmare to cut Goff before the 2022 season. A strange form of job security to be sure, but job security nonetheless. Goff balled out:

2022: 4,438 yards, 29 TD, 7 INT, 7.0 NY/P, 24.8% DVOA, 1423 DYAR

It was an awesome season, and even better, it didn’t require the Lions’ coaching staff to outclass the opposition. Goff developed the ability to beat defenses on his own. Specifically, he used his protection to keep a clean pocket. Additionally, he kept a reasonably accurate clock in his head, so if pressure was going to develop, he hit his hot read before the play broke down.

Playing quarterback in the NFL is difficult for any number of reasons. One of them is that quarterbacks need to make good decisions very quickly. Goff has improved at that.

It also helps when your offensive line excels at preventing clean rush lanes. More on this in a bit. First, we need to talk about the Lions’ strange wide receiver corps.

The Lions knew 2022 first-round pick Jameson Williams was coming into the NFL with a torn ACL from the National Championship Game. We barely saw him last season. He had one reception for 41 yards, and one carry for 40 yards. That’s it. 81 yards on two touches. His stat line:

2022: 1 reception, 41 yards, -4.3 +/-, -54.7% DVOA, -30 DYAR (in six games)

Some of you might remember this play from the Lions’ week 18 win in Green Bay. That 66 yard flea flicker TD would have moved his DYAR into positive territory. Still, penalties count, and it’s possible Goff gets pressured or sacked sans holding. What’s more important is that Williams still has elite speed. We’re less certain he still has elite cutting ability. We won’t know until later this season, as Williams is currently injured and will miss the first six games of the season due to a gambling suspension.

Williams remains a variable with a wide range of outcomes. He might end up being an elite #1WR. Or he might be limited to using his speed as a deep threat. If he does return fully healthy, his ceiling is exceptionally high. He’ll also be in a good environment to succeed.

2021 fourth-round pick Amon-Ra St. Brown built on his rookie success out of the slot:

2021: 90 receptions, 912 yards, +8.6 +/-, 6.9% DVOA, 181 DYAR

2022: 106 receptions, 1,161 yards, +5.0 +/-, 11.0% DVOA, 274 DYAR

He’s an excellent short range target.

Injuries forced Josh Reynolds into the lineup last season. He performed admirably:

2022: 38 receptions, 479 yards, +4.7 +/-, 1.6% DVOA, 74 DYAR (in 14 games)

Reynolds dealt with some ailments of his own that slowed him after a hot start. Interestingly, he ended up taking most of his snaps from the slot. We’ll see if he’ll work outside more this season, or if he’ll be dropped on the depth chart once the Lions have their full set of receivers available.

Kalif Raymond also took the majority of his snaps from the slot:

2022: 47 receptions, 616 yards, +3.6 +/-, 5.1% DVOA, 86 DYAR

Despite what it looks like, you cannot in fact build your entire passing game out of slot receivers.

Free-agent pickup Marvin Jones has returned to Detroit:

2020: 76 receptions, 978 yards, +4.4 +/-, 12.3% DVOA, 235 DYAR

That was his performance in his last season in Detroit. He went to Jacksonville in free agency:

2021: 73 receptions, 832 yards, +1.5 +/-, -6.1% DVOA, 63 DYAR

2022: 46 receptions, 529 yards, -1.3 +/-, -8.6% DVOA, 26 DYAR (in 16 games)

Things didn’t really work out in Jacksonville. I should note that in his final season in Detroit, Jones worked out of the slots two-thirds of the time. In Jacksonville he mostly worked outside. I have to presume Detroit plans on mostly lining him out wide given their other receiving options.

With T.J. Hockenson now in Minnesota, rookie second-round pick Sam LaPorta is taking over at #1TE:

Sam LaPorta: A good athlete, if a tad undersized. Iowa’s offense was quite poor last season, so don’t judge LaPorta too harshly for his efficiency:

2021: 83 targets, 53 receptions, 670 yards, 3 TD, 17,7 EPA

2022: 92 targets, 58 receptions, 655 yards, 1 TD, -5.6 EPA

LaPorta was a pretty good runner after the catch. It’s a strength that may end up separating him from his peers.

His blocking technique was generally quite good. His lack of power led him to occasionally get his weight too far forward in an effort to compensate.

Being the #1 target in a Kirk Ferentz offense meant LaPorta was playing on hard mode. I like what I’ve seen from LaPorta and feel this a solid pickup from the second half of round two onward.

Jumping from college to the NFL is tough for tight ends. In LaPorta’s favor, he’ll be going from an incompetent offense to a competent one. I expert LaPorta to be okay.

#2TE Brock Wright is mostly a blocker who can do damage when the defense ignores him.

I didn’t quibble when the Lions signed David Montgomery to take over as their #1RB:

2022: 241 squid, 1,117 yards, 5.4% DVOA, 163 DYAR (in 16 games)

Montgomery is a versatile back. He’s a capable receiver who likely will find more open space to work with than he saw in Chicago. What tilted me was the Lions draft. From my draft snippets:

12. Detroit Lions: RB Jahmyr Gibbs: Selecting Gibbs here was a true stunner. Before the draft I noted that Gibbs could be viewed as a RB-WR hybrid. That does not mean I considered it acceptable to use a top-15 pick on him.

At this point in the draft the Lions have told us two things:

1. They are willing to trade out of the top 10 at a reasonable cost, as opposed to holding out for the traditional ransom.

2. F*ck positional value.

The problem with this is that positional value exists for a reason. Running backs don’t produce enough points or wins to justify using scarce resources on them. Additionally, running backs selected in later rounds can produce a sizable percentage of production we’d expect from Gibbs or Robinson.

I wanted to check something, so I looked up the rookie contract DYAR for the last six running backs taken in the top 15:

Saquon Barkley: 249 DYAR

Leonard Fournette: 189 DYAR

Christian McCaffrey: 1,462 DYAR (555 rushing, 907 receiving)

Ezekiel Elliot: 1,377 DYAR (1,104 rushing, 273 receiving)

Todd Gurley: 1,168 DYAR (796 rushing, 372 receiving)

Melvin Gordon: 440 DYAR

To break it down, it’s 814 DYAR per-player, and 174 DYAR per season. Fournette only played three in Jacksonville:

Jaguars did all they could to trade RB Leonard Fournette in the spring and then again this summer. But as Jaguars’ HC Doug Marrone said today: "We couldn't get anything, a fifth, a sixth, anything. We couldn't get anything."
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) August 31, 2020

In that time period, ten wide receivers have been selected in the top 15:

Corey Davis: 401 DYAR

Mike Williams: 850 DYAR

John Ross: -126 DYAR (oof!)

Henry Ruggs: 197 DYAR

Jerry Jeudy: 222 DYAR

Ja’Marr Chase: 510 DYAR

Jaylen Waddle: 572 DYAR

Devonta Smith: 444 DYAR

Chris Olave: 155 DYAR

Garrett Wilson: 35 DYAR

Note, this only adds up to 27 seasons, for an average of 121 DYAR per-season.

Viewed in this light, I might understand how a team might feel inclined to draft a running back instead of a wide receiver. Unfortunately, there are two other bits of data I need to share.

First, DYAR is measuring production relative to a baseline. That baseline is different for passing plays than it is for running plays. Passing is more efficient than running in general.

The second bit of data is that the six running backs produced 4,885 DYAR over 8,103 runs plus targets.

That’s 0.60 DYAR produced per play when given the opportunity.

For the wide receivers, it’s 3,260 DYAR over 2,311 runs plus targets, or 1.41 yards per play when targeted.

One might argue that the wide receivers should also be debited for sacks taken on plays where they were the intended target. That’s a fair point. Still, that wouldn’t change the fact that passing is much more efficient than running, and attempting to maximize passing efficiency is how one builds an elite offense.

Then there’s the issue that elite wide receivers command enormous trade value and sign contracts that running backs can only dream about. The best paid running back, Christian McCaffrey, would be the 18 ^th highest paid wide receiver.

The truth is, the Lions could have taken WR1 or TE1 and no one would have batted an eye. They had numerous options for Edge3, or gone with Christian Gonzalez at CB2. Instead, they reached for a running back.

It’s rare for me to slag a team for trading back, but given this pick, I would have much preferred Detroit to stay at six and take Jalen Carter. This was brutal.

In retrospect, I should have been clearer that a wide receiver who produces 100 DYAR is significantly more useful than a running back who produces 100 DYAR. C’est la vie.

Trading back and taking Gibbs was truly awful. I can only hope he is a massive success as RB2:

Jahmyr Gibbs: Dude’s fast. Rushed for 926 yards on 151 carries, but the real news is he was targeted 54 times. He had 44 receptions for 444 yards. Like Robinson, he can work out of the slot. Unlike Robinson, he has experience split out wide.

Gibbs is a patient runner with good vision. Given his speed, he doesn’t mind trying to get outside and turn the corner. He’s a nightmare in open space, leaving defenders flat-footed with quick cuts.

Defenses might have to account for Gibbs like they would an additional receiver. It’s not reasonable to expect a linebacker to stick with Gibbs in coverage.

The mismatch reverses if Gibbs is forced to try and block blitzing linebackers in pass protection. That’s not how he should be used. Realistically, he might briefly help out an offensive tackle before releasing into the pattern.

Gibbs did a fine job returning kicks, with one touchdown in 2021 while he was playing for Georgia Tech. He should be able to take over the job if his new employer can use a kick returner.

I view Gibbs as a RB-WR hybrid. His versatility should stress defenses and create mismatches. This kind of rare speed and optionality makes Gibbs a late first-round value to me.

I’ll be rooting for Gibbs, but man, this really was a brutal selection. Running backs are generally products of the offense around them. If the Lions were focused on running more, I think the optimal draft play would have been to select Broderick Jones and slide him into right guard. Jones played well at left tackle at Georgia, but is a little raw and could theoretically have used some more seasoning.

Now, that’s not to say that the Lions need another tackle. Left tackle Taylor Decker is signed through 2024. 2021 first-round pick right tackle Penei Sewell is under team control through 2025. Both finished in my top ten in their respective positional rankings. I will say that drafting Jones would not have been my first choice (although it would give them optionality regarding Decker’s contract, and defense against injuries outside). It was just a more defensible option than Gibbs.

2020 second-round pick Jonah Jackson did a decent job at left guard last season. He had some concussion issues and missed four games. Dan Skipper did not do a great job replacing him.

Center Frank Ragnow finished eighth in my positional rankings.

Right guard Graham Glasnow probably shouldn’t be starting. That’s why I wondered if the Lions would have been better off drafting an elite guard over Gibbs.

With Halapoulivaati Vaitai an injured shell of himself, and Germain Ifedi as the main backup, it would be very bad if the one of the Lions’ offensive tackles were to get hurt. Depth here is an issue.

Offense wasn’t the main issue for Detroit last season. Their defense regularly let them down. There were some bright spots. 2022 first-round pick edge rusher Aiden Hutchinson (9.5 sacks, 41 hits+hurries) did a fine job. Defensive end John Cominsky (four sacks, 22 hits+hurries) was solid. Overall, the Lions did a decent job generating pressure.

That’s not the end of the story as pressure is more effective when quarterbacks don’t have any good options. In the Lions’ case, their lack of defensive team speed generally meant at least one receiver was open. The Lions’ defensive backfield was poor, as were their coverage linebackers. It was an issue that will require a general infusion of talent to fix.

To be fair, the Lions did address their weakness at linebacker with rookie first-round pick Jack Campbell:

18. Detroit Lions: Jack Campbell: Welp! 44th on the consensus big board. 47th on mine. I considered him the best pure inside linebacker in the draft, which meant I would consider him early in the second round. 18 is heck of a reach, at a position with low positional value.

I want to be fair to Detroit. From their perspective, they acquired a top offensive skill player, and their top linebacker. Presumably, these guys will fit well into their system and produce for them. I’m just not sure they’ll do enough to justify their selections.

Sigh. Meet Mr. Campbell:

Jack Campbell: The best pure inside linebacker in the draft. Only three sacks in his collegiate career. Averaged around 10 tackles per game over his final two seasons. Phenomenal combine. Campbell was the 2022 Butkus award winner (best linebacker) and the 2022 Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year.

Campbell impressed me with his zone coverage skills. He had a good understanding of his role and reacted quickly. His man coverage skills were not on the same level. His combine suggests that he might be able to develop those skills with more reps, particularly against larger tight ends.

Campbell was truly elite against the run. Even if he didn’t make the tackle, he’d shut down the lane and force the running back to look elsewhere. The dude played fast.

The issues with Campbell are two-fold. First, he’s never going to have the range of the LB/S hybrids. The second is that he’s a medical red-flag due to UCL concerns.

Positional value might be another concern, but that’s not specific to Campbell. He’s the best inside linebacker in the class. I’d be comfortable taking him early in the second round.

I’ll just move on.

Defensive end Cominsky will be paired with nose tackle Isaiah Buggs and 2021 third-round pick defensive tackle Alim McNeill.

2021 second-round pick Levi Onwuzurike, 2022 second-round pick Josh Paschal, and rookie third-round pick Brodric Martin will provide depth. Martin didn’t make my top 300 prospects list. I saw he occasionally was a late day three selection in mock drafts. He has the size to play nose tackle in the NFL, which is something that the Lions clearly valued.

Campbell will be joining linebackers Alex Anzalone and Charles Harris. Harris missed most of last season with a severe groin injury. (I hate those!) Anzalone is a known mediocrity. Harris has likely already played his best football. 2021 fourth-round pick Derrick Barnes and 2022 sixth-round pick Malcolm Barnes will provide depth.

It’s odd. The Lions have used a fair amount of draft capital on their front-seven. However, they only have one premium pass-rusher to show for it. Even with the addition of Campbell, they don’t have a ton of team speed. This front-seven feels like less than the sum of its parts.

The Lions’ secondary has been completely rebuilt via free agency. They signed free agents Cameron Sutton, Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, and Emmanuel Moseley. Sutton was a premium addition who will take over as CB1. Moseley missed time last season with numerous injuries and is on the PUP list as he’s recovering from a torn ACL. There are rumors he had another procedure to clean out his knee. If that’s accurate, we might not see him for a while.

(Update: Moseley’s knee is still bugging him, but he was activated off of the PUP list and is on the active roster.)

Gardner-Johnson snagged six interceptions for Philadelphia last season. He’s a safety/nickelback hybrid.

The Lions also added rookie second-round pick Brian Branch:

Brian Branch: This is not an exciting athletic profile. One of the problems I’ve heard mentioned about drafting Alabama defensive backs is that they’re usually already close to maxed out. Good coaching and athletic training have often helped their players get close to their full potential. That brings us to Mr. Branch.

Branch generally lined up in the slot last season, with excellent results (two interceptions, -14.7 EPA on 40 targets, -0.37 EPA-per-target). He’s completely polished with elite football intelligence. Branch’s play speed is obvious on film. He can start immediately, either in the slot or at free safety.

I will say I like his run support skills much more when he’s in the box instead of set deep. Branch excelled attacking the line of scrimmage, producing three sacks and 14 tackles for a loss last season.

Branch is a proven special teams contributor on both kick and punt coverage. His punt return skills are objectively hilarious. He returned two punts for Alabama last season. One was a 68-yard touchdown vs. ULM. The other was a muff against Vanderbilt.

Some prospects offer tantalizing upside. Branch is on the opposite end of that spectrum. He’s a trustworthy option who can fill a hole on your roster from week one on. I see him as worthy of a selection from the middle of the first round onward.

If Moseley can’t go, it will be interesting to see who lines up across from Sutton.

2022 third-round pick strong safety Kerby Joseph pulled in four interceptions. Kerby is a natural ballhawk, as this was his strong suit in college as well.

Tracy Walker looks like he will be taking over at free safety. 2021 third-round pick Ifeatu Melifonwu is another option. Walker is trying to come back from a torn Achilles he suffered early last season.

The Lions added a ton of talent here. I’m a little uncertain how all of these pieces will fit together. Both Branch and Gardner-Johnson seem like nice fits in the slot. We’ll see how the Lions decide to use them.

The Lions are still deciding who will handle placekicking duties. Riley Patterson currently has the edge, but Parker Romo might end up winning the job. Kalif Raymond looks to have both the kick and punt return duties. He did a fine job returning punts last season. Punter Jack Fox handles punts and kickoffs. He does a fine job. The Lions could have elite special teams if their coverage units improve. Of course, it would help if they find a reliable kicker.

The Lions haven’t hosted a playoff game since January 8^th, 1994. They haven’t won a home playoff game, or any playoff game, since January 5^th, 1992. They have a golden opportunity to end both streaks. I don’t love what they did in the draft, but at least they rebuilt their secondary. The real key is whether Goff can maintain his high level of play. If it is indeed sustainable, we’re looking at a ten win team. The division is soft. The schedule is reasonable. Detroit, if you had one shot, or one opportunity, to seize everything you ever wanted, in one moment, would you capture it, or just let it slip? 10-7.

Green Bay:

2022 Record: 8-9

Projections:

Scouting Wins: 6.80

DVOA Wins: 9.30

FPI Wins: 7.40

Market Wins: 7.79

Implied Pythag: 44.83%

First things first, I want to say that I STRONGLY disagree with this take from Jason Fitzgerald. Fitzgerald argues that Jordan Love made a questionable decision to accept the Packers’ offer (13M guaranteed):

“…but given the position he plays there is usually far more upside in having a contract expire.”

Let’s take a look at what Love has done when given the opportunity to play:

2021-2022: 606 yards, 3 TD, 3 INT, 7.0 NY/P, -14.7% DVOA, -39 DYAR (in ten games)

GM Brian Gutekunst was not going to pick up Love’s fifth year option. He couldn’t. The track record was too thin (and unimpressive). This $13M extension is an insurance policy. If Love proves to be better than his track record, great! He gets paid in 2025. If he is not the Packers’ long-term franchise quarterback, the Packers aren’t financially crippled and Love has achieved a measure of financial security.

Yes, Love could have declined the offer and gambled on himself, but he’s already heavily invested in his performance. If he stinks this season, well, he’s still got that $13M. If he’s the truth, then a payoff delayed is very much not a payoff denied. If I were his agent, I would have advised conservatism. Not every quarterback with a fifth year option declined becomes Daniel Jones.

There’s something else: Usually, with first-round quarterbacks, we know. Either the team wants to keep them, or they want to move on. With Love, the verdict is still out. He’s only attempted 83 passes. I don’t want to draw too many conclusions from such a small sample. And neither should Love. Get paid (for some reasonable definition of “paid”) and do your best now that you finally have the keys.

(Editor’s note: Rookie fifth-round pick backup quarterback Sean Clifford is a good athlete, but does not have an NFL-level arm and is not a realistic option.)

Love’s receiver corps is young and talented. 2022 second-round pick #1WR Christian Watson leads the pack:

2022: 41 receptions, 611 yards, +2.4 +/-, 11.4% DVOA, 133 DYAR (in 14 games)

It was a slow start for Watson. He caught 31 balls for 523 yards over the final eight games of the season. The offense is now under new management, so we’ll see if he can pick up where he left off.

2022 fourth-round pick Romeo Doubs did a decent job of getting open. Six drops marred his final results:

2022: 42 receptions, 425 yards, -1.8 +/-, -19.5% DVOA, -35 DYAR (in 13 games)

Doubs wasn’t bad at generating separation downfield. If he can improve his hands, he’s a legitimate deep threat.

(Editor’s note: Doubs has been dealing with a hamstring injury this preseason.)

Rookie second-round pick Jayden Reed looks like he’ll work out of the slot:

Reed is a problem if he gets the ball in space. He returned three punts for touchdowns (out of 38) in his collegiate career. He has a proven ability to produce on special teams. He was solid on kick returns as well.

A creative offensive staff should be able to take advantage of Reed. If you put him in motion, he can explode off the snap and put immediate pressure on the defense. His catch radius and hands are suboptimal, but there’s a tradeoff here. In 2021 Reed was clearly looking for YAC and tried to cut as he made the catch. He cut down on drops in 2022, but at the expense of extra yardage. This is something that his coaching staff will need to weigh.

There are a few concerns to note. First, Reed didn’t regularly create separation on his own. Second, he might not have been looking for YAC as much as he was trying to avoid taking a clean shot, particularly over the middle. Finally, Reed wasn’t the elite deep threat that his combine numbers might have suggested. He didn’t regularly flash 4.45 speed on film.

I like Reed because of his added special teams value. I view him as a #3WR who’ll produce in other ways. I think he’s a nice value late day two.

Rookie fifth-round pick Dontayvion Wicks gives the Packers some depth:

Dontayvion Wicks: Two completely different profiles in one player. Let’s look at the good one first:

2021: 94 targets, 57 receptions, 1,203 yards, 9 TD’s, 63.3 EPA, 6 drops

Perhaps a slight issues with drops. We’re looking at a player who averaged over 12 yards-per-target. Expectations were high heading into 2022. However, Virginia had a new coaching staff. Let me provide some perspective:

Virginia 2021: scored 34.6 PPG, allowed 31.8 PPG

Virginia 2022: scored 17.0 PPG, allowed 24.0 PPG

Oof. It did not go well for Wicks:

2022: 75 targets, 30 receptions, 430 yards, 2 TD’s, -14.6 EPA, 9 drops

There’s no way to sugarcoat that. Wicks could have reminded everyone of his elite potential with a strong combine. Instead, Wicks ran a 4.62.

If you want to look on the bright side, we’re talking about a player with decent size and one elite season of college football. It’s just hard for me to ignore 2022 and 4.62.

The conundrum here is that Wicks was able to average 21+ yards per reception in 2021. That’s amazing given his target rate. Wicks has long arms and huge hands. He should be able to cut down on his drops with better technique.

Honest to God, Wicks looked fast on film in 2021. Not blazing perhaps, but not 4.62 either. On some level I have to believe he’s still an explosive player who just had a down year. As for his combine, maybe he’s one of those players who plays fast with the pads on. I’m truly not sure.

There’s a pretty good shot Wicks falls to day three. I have not done a deep enough dive to know what went wrong at Virginia last season. Given his size and 2021 production, I feel like he’s worth a fourth-round pick.

The Packers didn’t stop there. Rookie second-round pick Luke Musgrave and rookie third-round pick Tucker Kraft are the Packers’ top two tight ends. Musgrave:

Luke Musgrave: A solid combine does not an NFL prospect make. I don’t see an NFL athlete on film. Perhaps I could look past that if the production were there, but we’re talking about a dude with 47 receptions for 633 yards, 2 TD (-3.0 EPA) in his college career. I’ll grant that Musgrave started 2022 strong with 11 receptions in two games (169 yards), but that’s a small sample against Boise State and Fresno State.

My main issue with Musgrave is a lack of power. I’m not just talking about in the running game. Linebackers bullied him. He didn’t know how to separate from physical coverage. That’s a serious concern for someone who will now face much tougher coverage going forward.

Musgrave had an efficient final season (0.61 EPA-per-target) and a solid combine. But the sample was small, and the tape tells me he’ll have difficultly finding separation in the NFL. I just don’t see it here. I wouldn’t pick Musgrave until round three. Expect him to be off the board well before then.

Kraft:

Tucker Kraft: A strong 2021 performance (65 receptions, 780 yards, 6 TD) led to high expectations for 2022. Unfortunately, that didn’t work out as Kraft injured his ankle week one. He was able to return later in the season and Kraft helped lead South Dakota State to the national championship.

A solid combine should lock Kraft into a day-two selection. As with Dallas Goedert, we need to take the jump in competition into account. Goedert showed flashes in his third season and broke out in Philadelphia in his fourth season. If things go well for Kraft, a similar timeline seems reasonable.

I’m not too worried about medical red flags here. The main concern is that the jump from division II to the NFL is enormous, which makes it tougher to gauge which prospects will be able to handle the tougher competition. I don’t want to read too much into Goedert’s success. On his own merits, Kraft should come off the board around the middle of day two.

Musgrave is more likely to make an immediate impact. My suspicion is that Kraft has more long-term upside.

#1RB Aaron Jones is coming off of another strong season:

2022: 285 squid, 1,516 yards, 12.2% DVOA, 278 DYAR

We’ll see if he has more difficulty finding open running lanes now that Aaron Rodgers has left the scene.

2020 second-round pick AJ Dillon is a competent backup:

2022: 229 squid, 976 yards, 2.9% DVOA, 121 DYAR

Jordan Love should have the skill talent around him that he needs to succeed.

There are rumors that Jets GM Aaron Rodgers has been trying to trade for left tackle David Bakhtiari. I don’t blame him. Bakhtiari was one of the best left tackles in the NFL last season. Health has been an issue, as he only appeared in eleven games.

Left guard Elgton Jenkins is a mediocrity. It would be nice if 2022 third-round pick Sean Rhyan put Jenkins on the bench.

2021 second-round pick center Josh Myers has failed to impress the Packers’ brass. He’ll be facing competition from 2022 fourth-round pick Zach Tom for the starting job. I should note that I like Myers more than the Packers seem to. I thought the Packers gave Myers some tough assignments. Relative to his responsibilities, I thought Myers did a decent job. I will say that he doesn’t have the level of power the Packers seem to want from the position, so perhaps he won’t end up being the right man for the job.

2020 sixth-round pick Jon Runyan has the edge over 2021 fourth-round pick Royce Newman for the right guard job. I viewed Runyan as the much better player. Both received a decent amount of playing time last season.

The aforementioned Zach Tom did a yeoman’s job filling in at left tackle last season. If he doesn’t swipe the center job, look for him to start at right tackle. Yosh Nijman is available to start at right tackle if Tom moves inside. I’m not a huge fan of Nijman and think it’s probably for the best if the Packers go with Myers at center and Tom at right tackle.

(Update: Zach Tom will indeed start at right tackle.)

Defensive lineman Kenny Clark (four sacks, 28 hits+hurries) remains a premium defender. There will be a changing of the guard, as Jarran Reed and Dean Lowry have both departed. Clark will be joined by 2021 fifth-round pick T.J. Slaton and 2022 first-round pick Devonte Wyatt. Slaton did a decent job as a backup. Wyatt played sparingly last season.

Rookie fourth-round pick Colby Wooten will join the rotation:

Colby Wooden: DE/DT hybrid. 15 sacks over the past three seasons at Auburn. At tackle, he’s seriously undersized. At end, he’s not a premium athlete. Mentally, I struggle to see him succeed as a traditional edge-rusher in the NFL. I like him as an interior pass-rusher, or as a defense end on early downs.

Wooden offers unusual versatility, with the tradeoff being he lacks a natural fit. A creative coaching staff should be able to take advantage of his strengths and mitigate his weaknesses.

Upon further consideration, Wooden does have a lot of the skills a 3-4 DE needs to succeed in the NFL. Not every defensive end is an edge-rusher. Wooden should be able to provide disruption inside while holding the corner outside. If he’s a good fit for your defense, he’s fine late day two or early day three.

Rookie sixth-round pick Karl Brooks and 2022 seventh-round pick Jonathan Ford will provide depth.

(Update: Ford was moved to the practice squad.)

Edge rusher Rashan Gary is coming back from a week nine ACL tear. He had six sacks and 33 hits+hurries in nine games. He’ll start across from Preston Smith (8.5 sacks, 43 hits+hurries). It’s a strong pairing if both are healthy. They’ll be joined by rookie first-round pick Lukas Van Ness:

Lukas Van Ness: I can’t even imagine what it’s like to have 11-inch hands. Van Ness has the size, length, speed, and power teams are looking for. You needn’t worry about his grip strength.

Van Ness produced 13.5 sacks and 19.5 hits+hurries in his 27 games at Iowa. Van Ness was a DT/DE hybrid at Iowa. He also blocked two punts, which gave me higher expectations for his penetration skills than the overall film suggests.

It’s interesting to note that Van Ness didn’t start. He is still fairly inexperienced and has plenty of room for future development and growth. One area of improvement will be play recognition. Simply put, Van Ness will read and react much quicker once he’s had more reps to draw from.

I need to note I am considering Van Ness an edge, as his interior pass-rush skills are not yet on the same level as his edge skills. In truth, right now Van Ness relies on his bull rush to generate pressure. The rest of his game is still raw.

I confess that I am not as high on Van Ness as the NFL appears to be. He has the traits, sure, but if you’re not starting for Iowa? If you are close to a one-trick pony, it better be an incredible trick. Van Ness will not be blowing NFL offensive tackles off the ball. So he’s going to need some work. I view him as a project who belongs late day one, early day two. He’s coming off the board well before then. Hopefully not to NY.

SackSEER loves Van Ness. I’m less enthused.

2022 fifth-round pick Kingsley Enagbare (three sacks, 17 hits+hurries) and Justin Hollins (3.5 sacks, 12 hits+hurries) will provide depth.

2022 first-round pick Quay Walker made more than his fair share of plays. He also had more than his fair share of dumb penalties. Hopefully he cleans that up with experience. He did a nice job in coverage.

Walker will again pair with De’Vondre Campbell. Campell excelled in coverage in 2021. That was not the case in 2022, although he did snag a pair of interceptions. Campbell is solid overall. 2021 sixth-round pick Isaiah McDuffie will provide depth.

#1CB Jaire Alexander had a pretty good year (five interceptions, Pro Bowl nod). He’s capable of having a great one if he’s fully recovered from the injuries that have cost him fourteen games over the past two seasons.

The Packers would like 2021 first-round pick Eric Stokes to start across from Alexander. Stokes is currently on the PUP list as he recovers from the Lisfranc injury that ended his season. With Stokes out, Rasul Douglas is CB2.

Douglas was a bit of a mixed bag last year. He gambled quite a bit. He had a decent success rate, and came up with four interceptions. However, he also gave up a fair amount of yardage. I view him as a pretty good performer who would be a great option as CB3.

It appears Keisean Nixon has won the nickelback job and will start in the slot. He played reasonably well in a small sample last season.

Strong safety Darnell Savage will never develop into the player the Packers were hoping he’d become. He’s a good athlete, but not a consistent one. Tackling is a major part of a safety’s job and Savage isn’t great at that.

I expect Savage to pair with Rudy Ford. Ford had three interceptions last season. His overall level of play wasn’t great, though. That may be why the Packers signed budget free-agents Tarvarius Moore and Jonathan Owens. Both are fungible.

Keisean Nixon did a good job returning punts and a great job returning kicks. He was awarded All-Pro by both the Associated Press and The Pro Football Writers of America. Rookie sixth-round pick Anders Carlson will take over as the new kicker. This had been a problem area for the Packers. Punter Pat O’Donnell was terrible. He’s facing a training camp battle from undrafted free-agent Daniel Whelan. I’m rooting for Whelan. Overall, the Packers’ special teams should be fine, even if Nixon doesn’t replicate his elite performance.

The Packers are in a transitional period. They don’t know if Jordan Love is their quarterback of the future. They hedged that bet to the tune of $13M. There’s a fair amount of offensive skill talent on this roster. If Bakhtiari can stay healthy, we’re looking at a solid offensive line. The defense might have an issue with cornerback depth, but it’s nothing too serious if Alexander can stay healthy. I think this is a competitive roster. A lot depends on Jordan Love. I’m expecting… decent things. 8-9.

Minnesota Vikings

2022 Record: 13-4

Projections

Scouting: 8.29

DVOA: 6.4

FPI: 8.65

Market: 8.64

Let’s step back a moment. The 2022 Minnesota Vikings are arguably the strangest team in NFL history. I don’t want to call them the luckiest, because there are measures of luck (fumbles, long field goals against you, etc). They were not particularly lucky. They finished 13-4 despite being outscored on the season 424-427. That leads to a Pythagorean record of 8.45-8.55.

That would also be in line with their projections, save for DVOA, which expects them to be awful. There’s a reason for that. Last season the Vikings were awful:

Offense: -3.1% DVOA (20^th)

Defense: 6.7% DVOA (27^th)

Special Teams: -3.8% DVOA (30^th)

Overall: -13.6% DVOA (27^th)

To recap: The Vikings should have won 8.45 games. They won 13. And they were the 27^th best team in the NFL. It’s amazing they were only outscored by three!

In case you’re wondering, their schedule was slightly weaker than average. Nothing extreme.

I don’t have a good explanation for how one of the worst teams in the league went 13-4. It makes no sense. I watched it happen, week-by-week, and I’ve got nothing. What’s important is what it means for the team going forward.

Perhaps the biggest issue facing Minnesota is the decline of Kirk Cousins:

2019: 3,603 yards, 26 TD, 6 INT, 7.2 NY/P, 14.3% DVOA, 786 DYAR (in 15 games)

2020: 4,265 yards, 30 TD, 13 INT, 7.3 NY/P, 12.0% DVOA, 894 DYAR

2021: 4,221 yards, 33 TD, 7 INT, 6.9 NY/P, 15.0% DVOA, 968 DYAR (in 16 games)

2022: 4,547 yards, 29 TD, 14 INT, 6.1 NY/P, 3.6% DVOA, 678 DYAR

Cousins only managed 6.1 net-yards-per-pass. That is not what the Vikings are looking for. Cousins turned 35 in August and is well past his peak. He still has the ability to make good decisions quickly, so long as his pre-snap reads are accurate.

Cousins excels if the play works as called. His ability breaks down if the play breaks down. It’s almost like he tries to operate from first principles. If he hasn’t learned how to adjust to defensive surprises at this point, I wouldn’t expect him to do so in the future.

Cousins is notorious for throwing the ball to his primary receiver when he isn’t sure what else to do. Please take that into account when reviewing 2020 first-round pick Justin Jefferson’s statistics:

2020: 88 receptions, 1,400 yards, +9.1 +/-, 25.5% DVOA, 373 DYAR

2021: 108 receptions, 1,616 yards, +9.7 +/-, 18.9% DVOA, 416 DYAR

2022: 128 receptions, 1,809 yards, +14.9 +/-, 20.7% DVOA, 489 DYAR

Someone put together a highlight video of Jefferson that shows just how absurd he is. It’s notable how often he crushed double-coverage. This catch in particular is on another level. Jefferson is the best wide receiver in the league right now. His efficiency is mind-blowing when put into context of how often he’s targeted when he’s not open or facing double-coverage. I shudder to think of what Cousins’ numbers would look like without Jefferson.

Rookie first-round pick Jordan Addison will come in as the WR2:

Jordan Addison: At 5’11, 171, you’d really like to see a lot more green on this athletic profile. Addison won the 2021 Biletnikoff Award. He had 100 receptions for 1,593 yards and 17 TD’s that season (143 targets, 55.5 EPA per SIS), working primarily out of the slot. He transferred to USC where he worked both out of the slot and outside (81 targets, 59 receptions, 875 yards, 8 TD’s, 38.5 EPA).

You might suspect that Addison would struggle against press coverage, but he was generally able to avoid it and get a quick advantage. Addison’s excellent footwork allowed him to run precise routes and create separation. Addison is excellent in space after the catch, gaining extra yards and forcing defenders into tough angles.

Larger cornerbacks were able to bully Addison. With a small catch radius, he generally needs separation to be effective. As such, he’ll need a quarterback with solid accuracy and timing. Counting on Addison to win 50-50 balls is not a great strategy.

Having said that, don’t underrate Addison’s hands. He was very good at adjusting his speed to catch the ball in stride. The dude can play.

I’ll note Addison does have experience returning punts. I don’t see that as his best use in the pros. Just some optionality that might come in handy.

The NFL has become friendlier to smaller quicker athletes. He’s shown he can dominate out of the slot. He has the skills to work outside as well. I see Addison as a quality player. I’d be happy taking him around the middle of the first round.

With defenses focusing on Jefferson, Addison has a good chance to make an immediate impact. He’s taking over from Adam Thielen. Addison should be an upgrade.

2020 fifth-round pick K.J. Osborn returns as WR3:

2021: 50 receptions, 655 yards, +0.7 +/-, 2.5% DVOA, 92 DYAR

2022: 60 receptions, 650 yards, +1.6 +/-, -2.9% DVOA, 69 DYAR

Osborn has been working out of the slot around two-thirds of the time, so it will be interesting to see where he and Addison line up.

Jalen Reagor may have fumbled away the WR4 job. If so, 2022 sixth-round pick Jalen Nailor has recovered it. Nailor was exceptional in a tiny sample (nine receptions, 179 yards, 42.4% DVOA, 61 DYAR). We’ll see what he can do when defenses pay attention to him.

(Update: Reagor indeed fumbled it away. He was cut.)

Budget free-agent pickup Brandon Powell will provide depth.

#1TE T.J. Hockenson wore out his welcome in Detroit. The Lions had hoped he had turned the corner in 2021:

2021: 61 receptions, 583 yards, +3.2 +/-, 5.2% DVOA, 71 DYAR (in 12 games)

They picked up his fifth-year option but were disappointed in his performance last year. Minnesota had a need for his services, so they gave up a second-round pick to acquire him:

2022: 86 receptions, 914 yards, -2.1 +/-, -5.4% DVOA, 16 DYAR

Hockenson is talented but frustratingly inconsistent. He’s been sidelined with an ear infection. I’m not sure when he’ll be available for the Vikings.

(Update: The infection appears to have cleared up with the signing of a new contract. I wish Hockenson the best of luck and the best of health.)

Backups Josh Oliver and Johnny Mundt are blocking specialists. Given the paucity of trustworthy targets, Hockenson’s availability will have cascade effects throughout the offense.

With Dalvin Cook in NY (sigh), Alexander Mattison is the new #1RB:

2022: 92 squid, 374 yards, 2.3% DVOA, 49 DYAR

2021 fourth-round pick Kene Nwangu and fullback C.J. Ham will provide depth.

(Update: Nwangu is starting the season on IR. 2022 fifth-round pick Ty Chandler will provide depth in his stead. Chandler produced -13 DYAR on six carries last season.)

2021 first-round pick left tackle Christian Darrisaw did a fine job protecting Cousins while avoiding drawing flags. He finished third in my positional rankings after a poor rookie season.

2020 second-round pick left guard Ezra Cleveland finished in the top 10 of my positional rankings in 2021, but he was mediocre last season.

I wasn’t surprised when the Vikings declined 2019 first-round pick center Garret Bradbury’s fifth-year option. I was surprised when he played well enough to earn an extension. It was nowhere near what he would have earned had they picked up the option at $13.2M. Bradbury was within shouting range of average last season. There’s hope in Minnesota he’ll be even better this year.

2022 second-round pick right guard Ed Ingram had a rough rookie season. Vikings running backs had a brutal time running right tackle, partially because Ingram had difficulty preventing penetration. He needs to improve on that.

Right tackle Brian O’Neill did a fine job, finishing sixth in my rankings. However, he ended the season with a torn Achilles. Thankfully, O’Neill has had a quick recovery and has been performing in team drills.

Now, I need to talk about my rankings. They are mostly based on pass protection. There are teams that can “game” the system by being much better at pass protection than run blocking. For the past two years the Vikings’ run blocking has been a disaster, particularly in short yardage.

Missed blocks and a general lack of power have put their running game at a disadvantage. We’re not seeing any new blood, so the only real hope is improvement for a young group. The depth throughout the line is questionable, so continued good health is a must.

Edge rushers Danielle Hunter (10.5 sacks, 46 hits+hurries) and Za’Darius Smith (ten sacks, 60 hits+hurries) did their jobs. Smith has been traded to Cleveland. He’s been replaced by Marcus Davenport (0.5 sacks, 22 hits+hurries). This is… a downgrade. 2020 fourth-round pick D.J. Wonnum (four sacks, 20 hits+hurries), and 2021 third-round pick Pat Jones (four sacks, nine hits+hurries) will provide depth.

Last season, the Vikings’ pass rush was weak outside of their top two. They’ll need someone to step up with Smith gone.

Free-agent pick defensive end Dean Lowry (0.5 sacks, 12 hits+hurries) is replacing the departed Dalvin Tomlinson (2.5 sacks, 19 hits+hurries). Tomlinson was better against the run and just a more dominant player overall. This is another downgrade.

Lowry will be joined by nose tackle Khyiris Tonga and defensive tackle Harrison Phillips. Jonathan Bullard and rookie fifth-round pick Jaquelin Roy will provide depth.

Roy does not have a great athletic profile. He also only has one year of starting experience at LSU. Roy has impressive upper body strength. His best plays showed flashes of a player with a ton of upside. This seems like a fair gamble for Minnesota.

Inside linebacker Jordan Hicks will be joined by 2022 third-round pick Brian Asamoah. Asamoah has a fair amount of range. We’ll see if he’s ready to cover tight ends and running backs, as he’ll be tested early. Hicks was solid last season. Troy Reeder will provide depth.

It looks like the Vikings are going to start 2022 fourth-round pick cornerback Akayleb Evans across from rookie third-round pick Mekhi Blackmon. Evans had serious concussion issues that end his rookie season. He didn’t impress me when he played.

Blackmon was a serious reach. I had a sixth-round grade on him. He’s capable of tight coverage. His issue is that he’s overly physical and will draw flags for illegal contact, holding, and DPI. He’s also somewhat undersized, which limits his usefulness against the run. I did not like this selection and would be baffled if Blackmon is a week one starter.

The Vikings don’t have a ton of options. 2022 second-round pick Andrew Booth Jr. missed most of his rookie season with a knee injury that required surgery. He’s still working his way back to 100%.

Free-agent pickup Byron Murphy is expected to start at nickelback and work in the slot. Rookie fourth-round pick Jay Ward will be the dimeback:

Jay Ward: Long’ish, but thin. Ward is another one of the nickelback/safety hybrids. My guess is that it’s difficult for him to add more weight to his frame, or else he would have done so already.

Ward had three interceptions in nine games in 2020. He had three more in his final 24 games at LSU. Ward had a serious issue with flags, both DPI and personal fouls.

I don’t think Ward has the power to play safety in the NFL. That means he’ll need to improve his coverage skills (and play a cleaner brand of ball). Ward’s upside is as a nickelback, with some risk he can’t make it. Ward’s a mid-day three value to me.

Budget free-agent pickup Joejuan Williams will provide depth.

Veteran strong safety Harrison Smith is beginning to slow down. He snagged five interceptions last year. That was a nice bonus in an otherwise rough season (by his standards.) After signing a new deal in 2021, Harrison took a pay cut to stay with the team this year.

Smith will be joined by 2021 fourth-round pick free safety Camryn Bynum. Bynum is a converted cornerback. He’s still learning the nuances of the position.

2020 sixth-round pick Josh Metellus has proven himself as a special teams ace. He might end up seeing a decent amount of playing time due to the lack of secondary depth.

2022 first-round pick Lewis Cine is trying to come back from a broken leg that ended his rookie season after three games. He’s going to need to work his way back up the depth chart.

This defense was poor last season. It looks significantly worse now. The losses of cornerbacks Patrick Peterson and Chandon Sullivan have left the secondary quite young (and potentially barren). Linebacker Eric Kendricks has also departed. There is going to be a lot of pressure on the new guys to step up.

Kicker Greg Joseph was awful last season. That’s despite hitting a 61-yard game-winning field goal to beat the Giants. I am assuming that kick is what kept him safe from a training camp battle.

Punter Ryan Wright did a nice job punting for distance. His coverage let him down.

Jalen Reagor would be a nice punt returner if not for having an issue with fumbles.

Kick returner Kene Nwangwu was excellent in 2021 and very good last year. He’s a bright spot.

(Update: With Reagor gone and Nwangwu on IR, Brandon Powell will get cracks at both jobs, with Ty Chandler in support.)

The Vikings went 13-4 last year. I need to keep reminding myself because otherwise I’d wonder if they’re stealth tanking. The defense looks awful. The offense looks reasonable, so long as Cousins doesn’t decline much with age. The coaching staff did a fine job last season. I’m expecting them to run out of luck this year. 8-9.

2023 NFL Preview: NFC South

September 4, 2023

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NFC South:

New Orleans Saints: 10-7

Atlanta Falcons: 9-8

Carolina Panthers: 6-11

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 6-11

Atlanta Falcons:

2022 Record: 7-10

Projections:

Scouting Wins: 8.52

DVOA Wins: 10.1

FPI Wins: 8.1

Market Wins: 8.79

Implied Pythag: 43.69%

(Editor’s note: The Falcons schedule is so incredibly soft that an average NFL team (50.00% Pythag) would expect to win 9.81 games against it.)

That DVOA projection requires a bit of explaining. Last season, the Falcons finished 13^th in offensive DVOA (5.8%), and 5^th in special teams DVOA (2.5%). It was their defense that let them down, finishing 30^th in DVOA (11.1%). The Falcons made some moves to improve their defense, and defensive performance is more variable than offensive performance. I suppose I can see why DVOA would be optimistic. I do not share this optimism. Let’s start with 2022 third-round pick quarterback Desmond Ridder:

2022: 708 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 5.3 NY/P, 2.7% DVOA, 76 DYAR (in four games)

I feel like the DVOA projections might be a little too satisfied with a player who netted 5.3 yards-per-attempt. Before last season I viewed Ridder as an undersized good athlete who didn’t have the arm strength to be an elite NFL quarterback. After watching him, my view hasn’t changed. I don’t think the Falcons’ quarterback of the future is currently on their roster.

Ridder does have a few good targets to throw to. 2022 first-round pick Drake London was better than his stats would suggest:

2022: 72 receptions, 866 yards, +0.1 +/-, 0.1% DVOA, 119 DYAR

Twitter had fun with inaccurate balls sent London’s way. Ditto for 2021 first-round pick tight end Kyle Pitts:

2021: 68 receptions, 1,026 yards, -2.2 +/-, 8.8% DVOA, 120 DYAR

2022: 28 receptions, 356 yards, -5.9 +/-, -9.0% DVOA, -7 DYAR (in ten games)

Oof! Quarterback Marcus Mariota simply couldn’t throw accurate midrange-to-deep passes. We’ll see how Pitts performs with Ridder at the helm. My main concern is that defenses will sit on the shorter stuff until Ridder proves he can go over the top.

After London and Pitts, the Falcons’ receiver corps thins out quite a bit. Budget free-agent pickup Mack Hollins is coming off of his best season:

2022: 57 receptions, 690 yards, -0.2 +/-, 3.4% DVOA, 113 DYAR

As #3WR’s go, that’s a fine result. Whether he’ll be able to sustain such… “success” in Atlanta is another story.

Budget free-agent pickup Scott Miller had one good season in Tampa Bay (13.2% DVOA, 113 DYAR in 2020). Last season they tried to use him as a third or fourth option. It went poorly (-31.5% DVOA, -62 DYAR).

KhaDarel Hodge might see a larger roll this season:

2022: 13 receptions, 202 yards, +1.1, 26.2% DVOA, 52 DYAR

Hodge has mostly been a special teams player. The lack of receiver depth will give him a chance to do more for the Falcons.

I suppose one reason the Falcons aren’t investing significant resources in their passing game is because they plan on running the ball more than any other team in the NFL. Their top three running backs last season:

Tyler Allgeier: 210 carries for 1,035 yards, 222 DYAR, 16.0% DVOA

Cordarrelle Patterson: 144 carries for 695 yards, 170 DYAR, 18.4% DVOA

Caleb Huntley: 76 carries for 366 yards, 104 DYAR, 25.0% DVOA

These three players combined for 430 carries for 2,096 yards, 496 DYAR, 18.4% DVOA. That’s great as running games go. The Falcons cut Huntley because he is recovering from a torn Achilles. The 2022 fifth-round pick produced 270 DYAR on 227 squid (17.9% DVOA). That’s an impressive rookie season. He’s been demoted to #2RB to make room for rookie first-round pick Bijan Robinson:

Bijan Robinson: Last season Robinson produced 1,894 yards-from-scrimmage on 289 squid (44 EPA). That was in 12 games. Premier athlete. Showed impressive receiving skills. His pass protection skills are good, relative to his size. This isn’t ever going to be an elite strength.

Robinson is a very patient runner who will trust his vision as he seeks out an opening. Highly evasive in space. Willing to get low and power through for extra yardage. Ran for 18 touchdowns last season and caught two more.

In one sense Bijan gives you the best of both worlds. He can look to break big plays or muscle through in short yardage. His ability to maintain speed while juking is impressive and causes defenders to take poor angles.

Robinson has the skills to work out of the slot. Excellent hands. If Robinson goes to a creative offense, he may end up doing some damage as a receiver.

Robinson is an elite talent at a discounted position. His ability to provide additional value as a receiver makes him a solid first-round pick outside of the top 15.

The problem with Atlanta taking Robinson with the #8 pick is that it’s unlikely that Robinson will generate enough value to justify the selection. From my draft snippets:

On some level, I get what Atlanta is thinking. They would like to have a strong running game. Taking the top running back on the board should help with that. Unfortunately, the best way to build a strong running game is to remove defenders from the box. You do that by building a strong passing game. Additionally, running the ball effectively is significantly less important to team success than passing the ball effectively. In short, to maximize offensive production, your focus should be on strengthening your passing game.

Between Ridders’ questionable arm and the Falcons’ desire to lean on their running game, look for defenses to keep eight men in the box. On the plus side, there is a lot of upside here if the Falcons can develop a deep passing game.

The Falcons’ desire to boost their running game didn’t end with the addition of Robinson. They also added rookie second-round pick left guard Matthew Bergeron:

Matthew Bergeron: Go Orange! I’m rooting hard for Bergeron, but I have to admit that while he did a nice job in college, I never felt like I was watching an NFL tackle. His combine suggests that perhaps a move inside is in order. Admittedly, he has not played guard, so it’ll be a learning experience.

Perhaps I should try to show a bit more optimism here. Bergeron did a nice job run-blocking. He impressed me both with his footwork and his technique. He figured out how to maximize his leverage and seal off the edge.

It’s possible Bergeron will get a chance at right tackle. In that case he’ll need to develop a bit more power to anchor against the bull rush.

I hope I’m underestimating Bergeron. It would be nice to see him stick on the outside. That’s just not my expectation. I’d be fine taking him in the third round and hoping for the best. Most likely, he’ll be off the board well before then.

This feels like a good fit for Bergeron. He’ll be playing to his strengths. He’ll also be playing next to one of the best, left tackle Jake Matthews. Matthews finished second in my positional rankings.

2021 fourth-round pick center Drew Dalman was mediocre in pass protection. He helped make up for those shortcomings with his power in the running game.

Right guard Chris Lindstrom finished sixth in my rankings. He delivered some legitimate maulings. The Falcons know what they want from their linemen.

Right tackle Kaleb McGary finished fifth in my rankings. Again, I have to stress that this offensive line isn’t great in pass protection (although Matthews is). They excel in the running game in a way few other offensive lines aspire to. The Falcons really are built different.

2021 third-round pick Jalen Mayfield is available to provide depth at tackle. 2020 third-round pick Matt Hennessey can provide depth inside.

Over the past two seasons the Falcons have had the worst pass-rush in the NFL. It’s remarkable they’ve gone 14-20 over that time. I won’t blame defensive tackle Grady Jarrett (six sacks, 33 hits+hurries). He’ll be joined by premium free-agent pickup David Onyemata (five sacks, 24 hits+hurries) and Calais Campbell (5.5 sacks, 27 hits+hurries). I should note that Campbell will turn 37 before the season starts.

Those weren’t the only defensive line additions for the Falcons. They also added rookie third-round pick Zach Harrison:

Zach Harrison: Pretty good pro day considering Harrison was dealing with a left hamstring injury that prevented him from running at the combine. Harrison is another DE/DT hybrid. Harrison looked reasonably athletic on film, picking up 7.5 sacks in his final 25 games at Ohio State.

I also have to talk about his reach. 36+ inch arms allow him to make first contact. If he gets stopped, he focuses on the quarterback and looks to bat down passes. The issue with Harrison is that a lot of his movements are slow. He’s very patient in reading and reacting to the play. Frankly, it’s one of the reasons he didn’t have the kind of production Ohio State was looking for.

Harrison is tricky because he’s worthy of making an “athletic freaks” list. He can create pressure with an elite ability to strip the ball. Between his versatility and potential upside, I’d be comfortable selecting him around the middle of the third round.

I like the addition of Harrison. The Falcons’ defensive line should be much improved this season. Timmy Home and 2021 fifth-round pick Ta’Quon Graham will provide depth.

Edge-rushers Lorenzo Carter (four sacks, 27 hits+hurries) and 2022 second-round pick Arnold Ebiketie (2.5 sacks, 25 hits+hurries) will be joined by new addition Bud Dupree (four sacks, 24 hits+hurries). That’s a far cry from the $35M Dupree got when he signed with the Titans in 2021. Seven sacks in two seasons wasn’t what Tennessee was hoping for. We’ll see if Dupree can find the form he showed in Pittsburgh.

This is not a deep rotation. The Falcons will be leaning on their defensive line to pressure opposing quarterbacks.

The Falcons do have one more intriguing pass-rush prospect: Linebacker Kaden Elliss. Elliss can line up inside or outside, and he has shown he can blitz effectively (seven sacks, 15 hits+hurries). I’m sure the Falcons will try to take advantage of his versatility.

When Elliss plays inside in the base 3-4, look for him to pair with 2022 second-round pick Troy Anderson. Anderson was… stunningly awful last season. Truly atrocious. There’s a good reason for this. Right now he’s simply not an NFL-caliber linebacker. From my 2022 NFL Draft Preview:

Troy Andersen: Quarterback. Running back. Linebacker. We’ve got the videotape. Incredible athlete. He’s not going to play quarterback in the NFL (except perhaps in short yardage situations). Might be able to provide value in the running game (on offense).

Andersen is still learning how to play linebacker. He had 150 tackles last season. Also, he rushed for 21 touchdowns in 2018.

I’ve never seen a prospect like Andersen. He had the size and speed to start for Alabama or Georgia. He was a late bloomer who ended up in the FCS and dominated on both sides of the ball. I guess he’s the closest thing we have to a 1940s player, but with a dominant speed score of 127.3. To put that into context, Breece Hall leads the RB class at 118.5.

Andersen has unique upside. He could end up as one of the best running backs in the NFL. He could become a dominant middle linebacker. Or he could never quite master any position and have trouble seeing the field. Montana State doesn’t face the level of competition Andersen will have to adapt to.

The fewer decisions on the field Andersen has to make, the more effective he’ll be. A wise coaching staff will find a ton of value here. Mid day-two grade.

Elite athleticism isn’t enough to succeed in the NFL. The Falcons need to better prepare Andersen or else he’ll continue to be a weak link on the defense. Or he’ll be forced off of the field.

The Falcons’ other option is 2020 fourth-round pike Mykal Walker. Walker was mediocre at best last season, but that’s still a huge improvement over Andersen.

2020 first-round pick cornerback A.J. Terrell was one of the best cornerbacks in the league in 2021. He fell back to earth in 2022. It’s hard not to feel sympathy for him given the lack of a pass rush protecting the secondary. The Falcons hope Terrell will be paired with Jeff Okudah.

Like Terrell, Okudah was a 2020 first-round pick. In fact, Okudah was selected third overall. Things didn’t really work out for Okudah in Detroit, so they traded him to Atlanta for a fifth-round pick. He suffered a lower leg injury in practice and was carted off the field. However, the MRI results were positive and the Falcons’ coaching staff is saying that Okudah might be back early in the season.

Okudah was elite in college. I am still holding out hope he can be a competent NFL cornerback. If he can’t go, we might see budget free-agent pickup Trey Flowers start across from Terrell. Cornell Armstrong and 2021 fourth-round pick Darren Hall are also options.

(Update: Okudah is still on pace for an early season return.)

To be frank, none of the options other than Terrell looked good last season. An improved pass rush will be key for the Falcons secondary’s performance.

Dee Alford is the favorite to win the slot job. He wasn’t bad last season. Free-agent pickup Mike Hughes and rookie fourth-round pick Clark Phillips are in the mix as well:

Clark Phillips III: Coming off of a monster year at Utah (six interceptions, -35.3 EPA on 43 targets, -0.75 EPA-per-target.) Nine career interceptions, four returned for touchdowns. Film junkie who plays fast. The issue with Phillips isn’t his college production. It’s his physical limitations. He’s undersized, with a comparatively slow 40-time.

Like Emmanuel Forbes, Phillips is a ballhawk. He gets more than his fair share of tipped balls. Unlike Forbes, he does not have elite closing speed. In short, he needs to commit earlier to get the same results. He got away with that in college due to his high hit rate on reading plays. That will be a tougher trick to pull off in the pros.

Phillips was not a great tackler in run support, preferring to go for the big hit instead of wrapping up. Overall, his tackling was an issue and it will be tough to solve.

Phillips has played both inside and outside in college. I see a role for him as a CB3 in a base-nickel defense. That’s a good fit for his skill-set and a job I think he’ll eventually be able to do quite well. Mid-day two value.

I liked the Phillips selection and think he should eventually pay dividends in the nickel or dime formations.

Premium free-agent pickup Jessie Bates gives the Falcons an elite free safety. He’ll pair with 2021 second-round pick strong safety Richie Grant. Grant did a decent job in coverage last season.

2020 fourth-round pick Jaylinn Hawkins will provide depth. Hawkins was a starter in 2022. Snagging two interceptions was not enough to cover for the holes in his game. He’ll be better served in a support role.

The strong Falcons special teams were due to the success of punt returner Avery Williams. He tore his ACL and is out for the season. Dee Alford will replace him. Cordarelle Patterson will return kickoffs.

Kicker Younghoe Koo did a decent job on field goals. Punter Bradley Pinion handles kickoffs as well. He’s decent at both jobs. I’m expecting the Falcons’ special teams to be around league-average this year.

The Falcons are trying to take advantage of a weak NFC South. I’m not sure Desmond Ridder is the right man for that job. This is an improved roster, which will pay dividends. But the big thing is that the schedule is absurdly soft. The Falcons don’t have to be a good team to have a winning record. They’re not, and I think they will. 9-8.

Carolina Panthers:

2022 Record: 7-10

Projections:

Scouting Wins: 8.27

DVOA Wins: 6.3

FPI Wins: 8.8

Market Wins: 7.14

Implied Pythag: 37.42%

This season is all about developing rookie first-overall pick Bryce Young:

Bryce Young: Checks off almost every box. He was highly productive, throwing for over 8,000 yards in his final 27 games. He averaged over 8.8 yards-per-attempt. He finished his college career throwing for 80 touchdowns against only 12 interceptions. In 2021 he became the first Alabama quarterback to win the Heisman Trophy:

2021: 366 completions, 4,872 yards, 8.9 YPA, 47 TD, 7 INT, 140.3 EPA (in 15 games)

I’ll note that he took 38 sacks, but didn’t miss a game. In 2022 he was similarly efficient:

2022: 245 completions, 3,328 yards, 8.8 YPA, 32 TD, 5 INT, 110.8 EPA (in 12 games)

He only took 18 sacks in 2022. Young missed one game with an injured shoulder.

Young’s touch on short passes is notably great. He can put the ball where the receiver needs it to avoid losing momentum. He’s quite accurate on intermediate passes as well. Young lacks the arm strength to throw a great deep ball. His arm strength might also present an issue on sideline routes.

In college, he did a fine job of putting the ball where only his receiver could catch it. With smaller windows in the NFL, a lot of those passes may end up forcing his receiver out of bounds. It’s tricky when you have to rely on touch to complete longer passes, particularly near the sideline.

Young can beat pressure with a quick release or with his legs. He can look to pass, taking advantage of defensive breakdowns, or just tuck it and run. His playmaking skill is rare in this respect.

Young has played in an NFL-style offense and knows how to make quick reads and get the ball out of his hands.

Arm strength aside, Young makes a lot of sense as the #1 pick. But there’s a problem. Young is an extreme size outlier. He had to bulk up for the combine to get to 204. His playing weight is closer to 190.

There were some comparisons to Kyler Murray, but Murray is clearly thicker than Young. Murray also has a rocket arm and was selected 9^th overall in the MLB draft by the Oakland A’s. Young is not on the same athletic tier as Murray.

Young’s height and weight present a few different challenges. The most pressing issue is durability. Large fast men will be hunting him on every drop-back. The differential in mass puts Young in some jeopardy. Murray has had difficulty staying healthy, missing nine games the past two seasons.

There’s also the issue of wearing down. Young has been quite good at avoiding big hits, but that was against college competition, trying to breach the Alabama offensive line. Wherever he winds up, he’s going to have to adjust to no longer having a talent advantage on a weekly basis. He’s going to take more hits in the NFL. He’ll also have difficulty breaking away once defenders get their hands on him.

In terms of finding throwing lanes, Young is adept at throwing from different angles and creating lanes with his feet. It’s an additional challenge, but one he is used to.

Ultimately, I am a Young skeptic. Between his arm strength, height, and lack of bulk, I see Young struggling to withstand the rigors of an NFL season.

The counterargument might not be Murray, but Russell Wilson. Wilson’s build is similar to Murray, and slightly thicker than Young. However, Wilson also had a significantly stronger arm than Young coming out of college. Wilson and Murray were considered elite athletes. Young is viewed as a very good athlete who has mastered his craft.

We have had a 5-10 quarterback go first overall. We have had a 5-10 quarterback who won the Super Bowl. Young’s height is not disqualifying. But it does present challenges. His slim frame causes concern. His arm strength will force him to play on hard mode. I like Young. I’ll be rooting for him. But I wouldn’t take him first overall. Not when CJ Stroud is an option. QB2.

My thoughts from after the draft:

1. Carolina Panthers: QB Bryce Young: The Panthers traded up with Chicago to acquire Young. They gave up the #9 & #61 picks, a 2024 first-round pick, and a 2025 second-round pick, as well as wide receiver D.J. Moore. I don’t want to say that it was a steep price. I feel it’s more accurate to say that it’s in line with what the #1 overall pick usually would cost. That it was for a quarterback doesn’t apply here, as it’s presumed that if you’re trading up for the #1 overall pick, it’s for QB1.

When the trade was announced, the initial presumption what that it was for Ohio State quarterback CJ Stroud. Stroud fits the traditional mold of what NFL teams are looking for at quarterback. Bryce Young is undersized:

“Arm strength aside, Young makes a lot of sense as the #1 pick. But there’s a problem. Young is an extreme size outlier. He had to bulk up for the combine to get to 204. His playing weight is closer to 190.”

Young is considered a special player who will test the boundaries in terms of size required to succeed in the NFL. Frankly, I am skeptical he’ll be able to withstand the rigors of an NFL season. Having said that, my skepticism should not be considered a critique of the Panthers’ process.

They may have misread the market and been able to acquire the #1 pick a tad cheaper. They’re gambling on a size outlier. The Panthers have paid the cost and taken a risk in order to acquire a potentially elite franchise quarterback. That’s understandable, even if I’m skeptical that they’ll succeed.

In terms of judging Young’s development, we’ll need to remember to do so in the context of the Panthers’ offense. It is not loaded with weapons. The Panthers have done what they could, signing Adam Thielen and DJ Chark, and drafting rookie second-round pick BJ Mingo:

Jonathan Mingo: Awesome combine. The agility numbers were from his pro day. I have to wonder “Why didn’t he look faster on film?”

One of the main knocks against Mingo is his inability to separate from coverage downfield. With this kind of size and speed, Mingo should have been more dominant in college, even against SEC defenses:

2022: 89 targets, 51 receptions, 861 yards, 5 TD, 11.4 EPA, 4 drops

Mingo has long arms and huge hands. I’d expect him to be able to fix any issue he might have with drops. The bigger issue is separation. He needs to develop sharper route-running skills.

Mingo suffered a serious injury to his left foot in 2021 that required multiple surgeries. It’s an issue that might get him red-flagged.

Speaking of flags, Mingo needs to learn how to block without getting called for holding. I appreciate the effort, though.

Mingo is a prospect with prototype size and speed. In a different situation, he might have worked his way into round one. As is, he looks like a solid round-four value with significant upside. Or he can fail to ever learn how to beat coverage. That’s how it goes sometimes.

I was not expecting Mingo to go in the second round. Perhaps that’s on me for not properly valuing his athleticism. As a top-40 pick, I hope the Panthers have a plan for getting more from him than Mississippi did. One thing I should note: Mingo did most of his damage working out of the slot. That’s also where Adam Thielen usually lines up:

2020: 74 receptions, 925 yards, +5.1 +/-, 19.2% DVOA, 287 DYAR (in 15 games)

2021: 67 receptions, 726 yards, +6.3 +/-, 6.5% DVOA, 142 DYAR (in 13 games)

2022: 70 receptions, 716 yards, +2.1 +/-, 0.1% DVOA, 111 DYAR

Thielen turned 31 in August and is clearly declining. I suppose he can provide some veteran leadership to a fairly young receiver corps.

DJ Chark has suffered some serious ankle injuries and has to be considered a major risk to suffer re-injury:

2022: 30 receptions, 502 yards, +1.3 +/-, 16.3% DVOA, 124 DYAR (in 11 games)

Chark has missed 22 games over the past three seasons. If he can stay healthy, he’ll prove a valuable pickup for the Panthers.

(Update: He’s been dealing with a hamstring injury and hopes to be available week one.)

2021 second-round pick Terrace Marshall bounced back from an awful rookie season:

2021: 17 receptions, 138 yards, -4.1 +/-, -42.3% DVOA, -70 DYAR (in 13 games)

2022: 28 receptions, 490 yards, -0.9 +/-, 10.5% DVOA, 85 DYAR (in 14 games)

Marshall is a legitimate deep threat. His biggest issue is he lacks NFL-level agility, so he has to rely on fly routes, which makes him fairly predictable. Still, he does open up space for his teammates.

Laviska Shenault and Ihmir Smith-Marsette will provide depth.

Last season the Panthers’ tight ends combined to produce -31 DYAR (-14.0% DVOA). Enter free-agent pickup Hayden Hurst:

2022: 52 receptions, 414 yards, +2.9 +/-, -2.0% DVOA, 25 DYAR (in 13 games)

I am not seeing what drew the Panthers to Hurst. He’s produced 15 DYAR over the past three seasons. Backups Ian Thomas and 2021 third-round pick Tommy Tremble have been even worse, though, so I guess this is a case where the Panthers felt desperate.

Insofar as running backs can be premium free-agents/get paid, that was the case for Miles Sanders:

2022: 285 squid, 1347 yards, 9.0% DVOA, 211 DYAR

Weirdly, Sanders produced 121 DYAR receiving in 2019, and a cumulative -119 DYAR receiving in the following three seasons. Baffling. My expectation is Sanders will be significantly less effective when not running behind the Philadelphia line. Jalen Hurts took a fair amount of defensive attention, which opened up space for Sanders.

2021 fourth-round pick Chuba Hubbard had a decent sophomore season:

2022: 113 squid, 637 yards, 15.7% DVOA, 124 DYAR (in 15 games)

He should see some work on third downs and as a backup for Sanders.

2022 first-round pick Ikem Ekwonu did a decent job in pass protection… if we ignore all the flags. Hopefully he’ll be better prepared to face NFL competition this year.

2021 third-round pick left guard Brady Christensen had the same issue as Ekwonu. Perhaps the new coaching staff will be able to help them clean up their play.

(Editor’s note: Christensen suffered an ankle injury in the final week of the season. I’m expecting him to be available week one.)

Center Bradley Bozeman was better than his raw numbers would suggest. His communication skills helped this line perform better than it otherwise would have.

Right guard Austin Corbett had the opposite problem of Ekwonu and Christensen. He did a decent job of avoiding penalties, but his blocking wasn’t great. Fixing that might be a tougher challenge for the coaching staff. Corbett tore his ACL in the final week of the season and will likely start the season on the PUP list.

With Corbett out, 2022 sixth-round pick Cade Mays and rookie fourth-round pick Chandler Zavala will compete for the starting job. Zavala tested well. Athletically, he fits the mold of what the Panthers are looking for. My concern is that poor footwork meant he didn’t look athletic on film. I didn’t love him as a prospect

Mays is a jack of all trades who can play inside or outside. We’ll see if he can play right guard well enough to start.

(Update: Corbett is on the PUP list. We’ll see who wins the job on Sunday.)

Right tackle Taylor Moton wasn’t quite as good last season as he was in 2021. He was still good enough to finish eighth in my positional rankings. This line was shitty in 2021 and mediocre in 2022. If Okwonu and Christensen develop, the line could be above-average in 2023. That would be helpful for Bryce Young.

In case you’re wondering, the Panthers signed Andy Dalton as an insurance policy. Dalton wasn’t bad in New Orleans:

2022: 2,871 yards, 18 TD, 9 INT, 6.6 NY/P, 6.6% DVOA, 448 DYAR (in 14 games)

The Panthers also have 2022 third-round pick Matt Corral on the roster. Corral didn’t impress the coaching staff and is now QB3.

The Panthers’ defense had a weak pass-rush, but don’t blame Brian Burns (12.5 sacks, 61 hits+hurries). The dude can play. He’ll start across from free-agent pickup Justin Houston (9.5 sacks, 28 hits+hurries).

(Update: Maybe not! Burns appears to be unhappy with his contact, and would like an extension. We’ll see how this goes.)

Marquis Haynes (five sacks, 22 hits+hurries), Yetur Gross-Matos (2.5 sacks, 16 hits+hurries), and 2022 sixth-round pick Amare Barno will provide depth. Barno had two sacks last season in limited usage and may end up being one of the steals of the draft. They’ll be joined by rookie third-round pick DJ Johnson:

DJ Johnson: Late bloomer. Had six sacks last season at Oregon. Great mix of size and speed.

Two problems, though. First, he’ll turn 25 in October. Second, he’s an incredibly raw prospect. He has a power rush and… that’s about it. Doesn’t have much in the way of moves, let alone counter-moves, or play recognition. Johnson is a project, and those are tough sells at his age.

I get that he has NFL-level physical traits. I don’t think I’d want to gamble on him until around the middle of day three.

Perhaps the Panthers’ coaching staff has a good idea of how to get the most out of Johnson.

(Update: Haynes will start the season on injured reserve.)

Free-agent pickups defensive linemen Shy Tuttle and DeShawn Williams will join 2020 first-round pick Derrick Brown. The Panthers are switching to a 3-4 defense and right now I’m not sure who will make the cut to provide depth. The starting three looks okay. Nothing special.

(Update: Undrafted free-agents Nick Thurman and LaBryan Ray will provide depth. Henry Andeson will as well, once he comes off IR.)

Inside linebacker Shaq Thompson will pair with Frankie Luvu in the base 3-4. Luvu was excellent last season (seven sacks, 20 hits+hurries). He did a fine job against the run and a decent job in coverage. Shaq did a good job in coverage, but his tackling is poor. Budget free-agent pickup Kamu Grugier-Hill will provide depth.

2021 first-round pick #1CB Jaycee Horn has looked great… when healthy. Horn missed almost all of his rookie season, and ended last season on IR after 13 games. He’s currently dealing with ankle and foot injuries sustained in a private workout. Hopefully, he’ll be 100% to start the season.

#2CB Donte Jackson is pretty good… when healthy. He missed eight games last season. The Panthers would appreciate if Jackson and Horn could combine for 30+ games this year.

2020 second-round pick Jeremy Chinn is versatile and can cover the slot of play as a linebacker/safety hybrid. Truth be told, I don’t love him in any of his roles.

Free-agent pickup Vonn Bell will start at strong safety. He was quite good last season in Cincinnati.

Xavier Woods returns at free safety. I thought Woods was mediocre at best last season, but the Panthers don’t have anyone qualified to replace him.

Budget free-agent pickup Eric Rowe and rookie fifth-round pick Jammie Robinson will provide depth:

Jammie Robinson: Undersized. Sub-30 inch arms will cause some teams to remove Robinson from their boards. Has some linebacker qualities, with 183 tackles in his last 25 games. Five interceptions over that span.

It’s an open question whether Robinson’s skills will translate to the NFL. He lacks elite quickness and top end speed. He doesn’t have the length or power teams are looking for. What he has is college production.

I struggle to find a natural position for Robinson. He can cover tight ends, but will lose 50/50 balls. Quicker receivers will generate separation.

Robinson will provide value on special teams. His versatility will give his defensive coordinator some flexibility. Perhaps he’ll end up as a nickel safety who lines up in the box. My sense is that his limitations should knock him into early day three.

If the Panthers can take advantage of his strengths and mitigate his weaknesses, Robinson could prove to be a nice addition.

The Panthers had three special teams strengths last season:

1. Punter Johnny Hekker did a great job. He was a nice pickup last season.

2. Kicker Zane Gonzalez was pretty good. He was also a nice pickup last season.

3. The kick block units were excellent. Helpful, but tough to sustain.

The main area Carolina could stand to improve is blocking on kick and punt returns. That would help Raheem Blackshear put up more yardage in both roles.

I am not optimistic for the Panthers this season. The offense doesn’t scare me. The defense is in a transitional period. It would be great if the cornerbacks could stay healthy. Someone else taking some of the pass-rush load off of Brian Burns would be nice. The biggest issue is of course rookie quarterback Bryce Young. Perhaps I’m wrong and he’ll be able to withstand the physical rigors of the NFL. He’s still a rookie quarterback and he’s going to take his lumps. 6-11.

New Orleans Saints:

2022 Record: 7-10

Projections:

Scouting Wins: 10.02

DVOA Wins: 10.0

FPI Wins: 8.85

Market Wins: 9.34

Implied Pythag: 47.16%

I am willing to let a lot slide with the Los Angeles Rams because they went all in for a ring and got it. The Saints were hosed in the 2019 NFC Championship Game (against the Rams) by a missed pass interference call that likely would have set up a Saints-Patriots Super Bowl.

Perhaps if the Saints had won that Super Bowl, I’d feel more charitable towards their current status. They currently have $6,352,868 in salary cap space… in 2025. They simply are playing a different game than the rest of the NFL.

When the Saints signed quarterback Derek Carr, I wondered what would happen with Jameis Winston. The answer was… absolutely nothing! Over the past three years Winston has appeared in 14 games for the Saints:

2020-2022: 2,103 yards, 18 TD, 8 INT, 6.2 NY/P, -0.8% DVOA, 240 DYAR (in 14 games)

Winston was decent in seven starts in 2021 (13.6% DVOA, 338 DYAR) before an ACL/MCL tear ended his season. Last year he was playing through back pain (-19.1% DVOA, -93 DYAR). At this point he’s a well-compensated backup.

Andy Dalton took the bulk of the snaps last season. He did a decent job (6.6% DVOA, 448 DYAR). He’s now in Carolina. It’s Derek Carr’s team:

2019: 4,054 yards, 21 TD, 8 INT, 7.2 NY/P, 18.7% DVOA, 1,015 DYAR

2020: 4,103 yards, 27 TD, 9 INT, 7.3 NY/P, 14.0% DVOA, 928 DYAR

2021: 4,804 yards, 23 TD, 14 INT, 6.9 NY/P, 9.5% DVOA, 861 DYAR

2022: 3,522 yards, 24 TD, 14 INT, 6.3 NY/P, 2.1% DVOA, 451 DYAR (in 15 games)

There one other stat I want to cover: Fumbles. Carr had seven in 2019, 11 in 2020, and 13 in 2021. Cutting down on fumbles was a priority for Carr, who stated that his fumbles-lost is “not a stat I’m proud of.”

Carr succeeded, fumbling only four times in 2022. That was a silver lining in an otherwise disappointing season. It looks even worse when you note that the Raiders added star wide receiver Davante Adams. Carr turned 32 in March, so it’s reasonable to expect that he’s peaked. The Saints might just be hoping for reliable competence.

Carr’s performance may end up being tied to the health of #1WR Michael Thomas. Thomas has played in only ten games over the past three seasons. He was a monster in 2019 (149 receptions, 1,725 yards, 23.9% DVOA, 538 DYAR). He produced 1,741 DYAR in his first four seasons. 123 in the last three.

He’s been cleared to practice. If Michael Thomas can stay healthy, and he’s still the same player he once was, the Saints offense looks quite good.

Thomas will be paired with 2022 first-round pick Chris Olave:

2022: 72 receptions, 1,042 yards, +5.6 +/-, 3.8% DVOA, 155 DYAR (in 15 games)

Olave worked very well with Jameis Winston. We’ll see if he can form the same bond with Carr. Olave is a legitimate deep threat. Unfortunately, Carr no longer possesses elite arm strength (and we can debate if he ever did). That means that any successful deep passing game will have to rely on timing, which is something they’ll need to develop in practice.

Carr’s strength is that he can make quick decisions and deliver accurate throws in the short-to-midrange passing game.

There’s some question as to who will be the Saints’ #3WR. 2022 undrafted free agent Rashid Shaheed was a revelation:

2022: 28 receptions, 488 yards, +5.7 +/-, 44.1% DVOA, 155 DYAR (in 12 games)

Tre’Quan Smith is another option:

2022: 19 receptions, 278 yards, +3.0 +/-, 29.6% DVOA, 90 DYAR (in 15 games)

One thing I want to note: It’s possible to look exceptional in rate stats when you’re only targeted when wide open. The Saints chose to not play or target Smith more. It looks like he’ll start the season as WR4.

The NFL was more skeptical of rookie sixth-round pick A.T. Perry than I was:

A.T. Perry: I want it to be one way. I want Perry to dominate defenders with his rare mix of size, length, and speed. I want him to be an elite blocker. I want him to snap the ball out of the air and be a YAC monster.

But it’s the other way.

Perry generally did not separate from defenders. He didn’t excel in the running game. He certainly didn’t threaten defenses with big plays after the catch.

Perry put up solid results:

2021: 132 targets, 71 receptions, 1,296 yards, 15 TD’s, 53.4 EPA

2022: 131 targets, 81 receptions, 1,100 yards, 11 TD’s, 27.5 EPA

His production was a bit better than this makes it look. He excelled at drawing DPI, partly due to the lack of separation. Additionally, he was very rarely flagged (the sum total being one false start over the past two seasons).

I’ll note that Perry wasn’t a bad run-blocker. He usually got his hands on his man. Perry just isn’t thick, and it showed.

One of the changes in my ratings system over the years was providing greater weight to separation. That’s not Perry’s strength. Still, he’s a dude who can work outside and should be a solid red-zone threat. I’d be comfortable taking him late day two.

Perry gives the Saints another tall and fast target. I liked the selection quite a bit.

Tight end Juwan Johnson is a converted wide receiver who is still learning the nuances of the position. Right now, he’s mostly an oversized slot receiver:

2022: 42 receptions, 508 yards, 0.9 +/-, 10.9% DVOA, 77 DYAR

Free-agent pickup Foster Moreau has overcome a scare from Hodgkin’s lymphoma. He’s been cleared to play:

2022: 33 receptions, 420 yards, -2.0 +/-, 5.4% DVOA, 42 DYAR

Moreau is more a traditional tight end and will generally line up in-line.

#1RB Alvin Kamara has been suspended three game for his role in a fight in Vegas. That’s an issue, but the bigger issue is that Kamara might be washed:

2020: 294 squid, 1,688 yards, 21.6% DVOA, 448 DYAR (in 15 games)

2021: 307 squid, 1,337 yards, -11.0% DVOA, 7 DYAR (in 13 games)

2022: 300 squid, 1,387 yards, -12.2% DVOA, -18 DYAR (in 15 games)

At -67 DYAR, the Saints’ running game has now been below replacement-level two years running. For those keeping track, that goes back to when Drew Brees retired.

Free-agent pickup Jamaal Williams and rookie third-round pick Kendre Miller will try to rejuvenate the Saints’ running game. I don’t have an athletic profile for Miller since he didn’t perform at the combine or his pro day. Just going on the film, I had him as a mid-day three selection. Decent agility, poor pass protection. I presume the Saints have some idea of how they want to use him.

As for Williams, don’t read too much into the fact he scored 17 touchdowns last season. That was due to him receiving an unusually large number of goal line opportunities:

2022: 278 squid, 1,139 yards, -2.9% DVOA, 76 DYAR

He had six touchdowns in 2020 and 2021 combined (335 squid).

The final skill position piece of the Saints’ offensive puzzle is wildcat QB Taysom Hill. He produced 120 DYAR passing and another 64 rushing/receiving. He’s actually shown some improvement in his decision-making over the past few years and might genuinely provide some value in small doses.

You might presume that after an awful performance from the Saints’ offensive line in 2021, they might have continued to be a millstone in 2022. I don’t think that was the case.

2022 first-round pick Trevor Penning lost most of his rookie season to a foot injury, and then ended it with a Lisfranc injury. He’s making the jump from FCS to the NFL, so perhaps a year of practice and film study will prove helpful. He’s incredibly athletic and powerful, even by NFL standards. He looks dominant run-blocking. We’ll see how he holds up in pass protection.

Left guard Andrus Peat finished sixth in my rankings. The Saints would benefit from him playing a full season in 2023.

Center Erik McCoy finished just outside my top ten. He did a fine job preventing pressure.

2020 first-round pick right guard Cesar Ruiz finished tenth in my positional rankings. I’ve been a fan of his play for a while now.

Right tackle Ryan Ramczyk finished second in my rankings, trailing only Tristan Wirfs.

Sacks are generally the quarterback’s fault: It’s up to the quarterback how long he wants to hold the ball to look for opportunities downfield. The Saints’ offensive line did a solid job of providing protection.

Backup left tackle James Hurst finished fifth in my positional rankings playing for the injured Penning. He’ll provide top-level depth.

Rookie fourth-round pick Nick Saldiveri will provide regular depth.

I should note that if Penning can’t go, then the next man up if a tackle goes would either be 2021 sixth-round pick Landon Young or budget free-agent pickup Storm Norton. Neither are inspiring options.

Two years ago, the Saints’ sack rate was around 25% of their pressure rate. That’s a very high success rate at converting pressure into sacks. Last year it was almost 37%. That’s… unsustainable. Still, they should be commended for closing.

Defensive end Cameron Jordan (8.5 sacks, 25 hits+hurries) will start across from Carl Granderson (5.5 sacks, 12 hits+hurries). Tanoh Kpassagnon (two sacks, 11 hits+hurries), 2021 first-round pick Payton Turner (two sacks, seven hits+hurries), and rookie second-round pick Isaiah Foskey will provide depth:

Isaiah Foskey: Pretty, pretty, pretty good combine. 20.5 sacks in his last 25 games at Notre Dame. Foskey blocked multiple punts in college. Gave exemplary effort, even when the play wasn’t on his side of the field. There’s a lot to like about Foskey’s profile.

The main issue for Foskey is that when he had the chance to play against elite competition, he got his butt kicked. He didn’t have the power to bull rush or the length to win on first contact. I don’t think it would be fair to say he was a “scrubcrusher,” but it is an open question as to how well his skills will apply against a higher level of competition.

My sense is that Foskey has quite a bit of upside. I think a lot of his problems are fixable. Specifically, he needs better coordination between his lower body and his hands. That will help with his timing on initial contact. I like Foskey and I’d be interested in picking him up in the back end of round two.

Jordan turned 34 in July, so it would be nice if the younger pass-rushers started picking up some of the slack.

The Saints lost their top three defensive tackles to free agency (David Onyemata, Shy Tuttle, and Kentavius Street.) That’s 10.5 sacks and 41 hits+hurries they’ll want to replace. Free-agent pickups Khalen Saunders (3.5 sacks, 12 hits+hurries) and Nathan Shepherd (1.5 sacks, nine hits+hurries) will do their best. Rookie first-round pick Bryan Bresee should see significant playing time as well:

Bryan Bresee: Another solid athlete. Might be a medical red flag due to ACL and shoulder issues. Had nine sacks over his 25-game college career. Decent pass-rush. Bresee is one of those players who was consistently solid on film. He rarely impressed me. There’s value in a guy who you trust to just do his job.

I’m a little worried that injuries will rob him of his athleticism. His range and bend both appeared to diminish later in his collegiate career. Clemson took great care to limit his snaps.

There’s something else. It appeared that he was more interested in beating offensive linemen to the spot than he was in trying to overpower them. It makes me wonder if he didn’t want to stress his shoulder or if he had concerns about his power level. He was pretty good at winning with speed and quickness, so I suppose it makes some sense strategically. What makes it odder is that he was better than most at holding his ground against double-teams.

The fact is, Bresee put up excellent athletic numbers. Even the poor combine bench press (22) has to be understood in the context of him putting up a 28 on his pro day. If he’s 100%, Bresee is a solid first-round prospect. I’m not in a position to give him a clean bill of health, so I wouldn’t consider touching him until day two.

If Bresee is 100%, he could prove a nice pickup for the Saints.

Last season, the Saints had a pretty good trio of starting linebackers. Demario Davis (6.5 sacks, 11 hits+hurries) was solid in coverage and strong against the run. Kaden Elliss (seven sacks, 15 hits+hurries) was pretty good all-around. 2021 second-round pick Pete Werner excelled in coverage. That’s been a trend for Werner, who appears to play as a linebacker/safety hybrid.

Elliss has departed. Davis turned 34 in January. 2020 third-round pick Zack Baun will have to take over for Elliss. Back in college, Baun was mostly used as a pass-rusher. His coverage skills were unknown. Elliss wasn’t bad in coverage, but perhaps Baun will be used to blitz on passing downs. We’ll just have to wait and see how he’s used.

Budget free-agent pickup Jaylon Smith will provide depth.

The Saints would love it if #1CB Marshon Lattimore could stay healthy. He only appeared in seven games last season. When he plays, he’s an elite ballhawk.

2022 second-round pick Alonte Taylor was won the #2CB job. Good for him. He’s an excellent athlete who appears to have adjusted quickly to the NFL. I expect he’ll develop into a very good player.

2021 third-round pick Paulson Adebo was the weak link for the past two years. In 2021, he had three interceptions, which helped make up for his errors. Last season he had none. The Saints need more from him.

2021 free-agent pickups Tyrann Mathieu and Marcus Maye had different seasons. Mathieu was healthy and effective, snagging three interceptions. Maye was hurt and ended up missing seven games. If he can stay healthy, this is a formidable pairing.

Rookie fifth-round pick Jordan Howden will provide depth. He’s a good athlete. He didn’t play that fast on film, so the former track star might need to learn how to play fast in pads.

Kicker has been a problem area for the Saints. Will Lutz played poorly in his return from an abdomen injury. He is competing with undrafted free agent Blake Grupe to keep his job.

Punter Blake Gillikin has been solid. The Saints set him up with a training camp battle against undrafted free agent Lou Hedley. Perhaps they didn’t want Lutz to feel singled out.

Rashid Shaheed did a decent job returning punts and is taking over on kickoffs.

My biggest concern with the Saints’ special teams is general roster depth. The coverage and blocking units are filled with backups that would have a tough time making it onto most NFL rosters. It will be up to the coaching staff to make sure they can handle their roles.

The Saints play a truly soft schedule. If Derek Carr is decent, the Saints should win nine or ten games. This roster doesn’t have a lot of depth. I’m more impressed with the starting lineup than I was expecting. Potentially weak pass-rush aside, this is a well-constructed team. 10-7.

(Editor’s note: I’m not kidding about the schedule. It’s the softest in the league. An average team would expect to win 9.84 games against it.)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers:

2022 Record: 7-10

Projections:

Scouting Wins: 6.67

DVOA Wins: 7.50

FPI Wins: 6.45

Market Wins: 6.14

Implied Pythag: 33.26%

It’s been a rough few years for quarterback Baker Mayfield. He played through pain in 2021 (-8.0% DVOA, 96 DYAR). Last year, he was awful in Carolina, although he bounced back a bit in Los Angeles:

2022: 2,163 yards, 10 TD, 8 INT, 5.2 NY/P, -20.5% DVOA, -315 DYAR (in 12 games)

He signed in Tampa Bay for a very reasonable $4M. Like most observers, I have concerns that Mayfield is washed. Injuries may have robbed his arm of the zip one needs to beat pressure. But at $4M, Tampa Bay either finds some value or tanks at a fair price.

2021 second-round pick Kyle Trask has the backup job. I don’t see Trask as having the skills to be the Buccaneers’ long-term franchise quarterback. His lack of mobility and poor decision-making limit his upside. He produced -42 DYAR in 10 snaps without a fumble or an interception. That’s… miserable.

#3QB John Wolford has produced -254 DYAR over the past three seasons. Replacement-level is a cruel mistress.

The Buccaneers have $35M of dead cap from Tom Brady’s retirement. They are paying a normal amount for their quarterbacks. Brady won them a championship, so I’ll view this as a salary cap recovery year.

Mike Evans remains one of the best wide receivers in the NFL:

2021: 74 receptions, 1,035 yards, +7.7 +/-, 23.9% DVOA, 340 DYAR (in 16 games)

2022: 77 receptions, 1,124 yards, +1.7 +/-, 9.7% DVOA, 236 DYAR (in 15 games)

That was with a diminished Brady. He’ll have it even rougher this year.

Chris Godwin was clearly playing injured last season (-7.0% DVOA, 64 DYAR). Over 2020-2021 he produced 512 DYAR in 26 games (17.5% DVOA). If he’s healthy, this is one of the best wide receiver pairings in the NFL.

It’s fair to ask who’s WR3? Russell Gage had the inside track but will miss the season with a knee injury. Rookie sixth-round pick Trey Palmer has elite straight-line speed. That was enough to beat Big 12 defenses, but he might need some polish and finesse to succeed in the NFL. My sense is the Bucs drafted him for his special teams value.

(Update: Gage is on IR. Palmer, this is your time.)

2022 undrafted free agent Deven Thompkins failed to impress in limited usage last season (-71.0% DVOA, -43 DYAR).

After the top two, this is a thin wide receiver corps. Tampa Bay might feel compelled to pick someone up after rosters get cut down to 53.

2022 fourth-round pick Cade Otton was thrown into the fire last season:

2022: 42 receptions, 391 yards, -3.9 +/-, -11.5% DVOA, -20 DYAR (in 16 games)

Otton might end up sharing snaps with 2022 sixth-round pick Ko Kieft and rookie fifth-round pick Payne Durham. Kieft is effectively a sixth offensive lineman. Durham is a decent blocker with a large catch radius. He doesn’t currently have the skills to separate from coverage.

I think the hope here has to be that Otton develops. Tight ends usually take time to learn all the skills they need. The Buccaneers need a reliable target behind Evans and Godwin.

The Buccaneers could not run the ball last season. Every player who tried ended up with negative DYAR. Former #1RB Leonard Fournette is currently a free agent. 2022 third-round pick Rachaad White rose to the top of the depth chart:

2022: 188 squid, 771 yards, -7.2% DVOA, 35 DYAR

The Buccaneers have a paucity of skill players, so look for them to give White plenty of opportunities.

There are a number of uninspiring options currently competing to be RB2. Budget free-agent Chase Edmonds is coming off of a rough season (-9.0% DVOA, 39 DYAR, in 13 games). Undrafted free agent Sean Tucker is a major injury red flag due to a heart defect.

2020 first-round pick Tristan Wirfs is moving to left tackle. He was my #1 right tackle. I hope he can make the switch.

Free-agent pickup Matt Feiler is taking over at left guard. Feiler was mediocre for the Chargers.

Center Ryan Jensen missed last season with a knee injury. I thought that he was solid in 2020, but poor in 2021. The Bucs hope he’ll be available early in the season. However, coming off of a serious knee injury and a year of poor play, I’d keep my expectations for Jensen low.

(Update: Good decision on my part. He’s out for the season.)

2021 third-round pick Robert Hainsey put up decent numbers in Jensen’s absence, but that was due to Tom Brady getting the ball out as fast as possible. I can’t stress enough how much Brady protected this line.

Rookie second-round pick Cody Mauch will start at right guard:

Cody Mauch: Started 30 games at left tackle over the past two seasons at North Dakota State. Does not have the length to stay outside in the NFL.

The 2022 FCS offensive lineman of the year. Elite agility. A master of taking the correct angle. Dominant run blocker. Nasty attitude on the field. Coaches generally like that, but they’ll need to make sure he avoids flags.

Apart from the short arms, there are a few concerns that might knock Mauch down on draft boards. The first is that he turned 24 in January. An over-age player dominating FCS competition isn’t the kind of thing that impresses the NFL.

The second is his unusual weight distribution. He carries a disproportionate percentage of his weight in his upper body. That’s one of the things that makes his short (for the position) arms stand out. He’s done his best to bulk up, but the additional weight has raised his center of gravity.

I like Mauch. His film showed that the dude can play. He’ll have to adjust to a new position, so a little patience will be in order. I’m fine taking Mauch early on day two.

2022 second-round pick Luke Geodeke got absolutely demolished at left guard last season. He’s been promoted to right tackle.

Yes, this means no one on the Bucs’ offensive line is playing at the same position on the same team that they did last year. There might be some… growing pains. Also, there’s very little depth at tackle, so let’s hope Wirfs stays healthy.

The Bucs’ defense wasn’t bad last season. The defensive line will look a little different with free-agent pickup Greg Gaines (four sacks, 12 hits+hurries) and rookie first-round pick Calijah Kancey joining incumbent nose tackle Vita Vea (6.5 sacks, 18 hits+hurries):

Calijah Kancey: Look, I feel really silly comparing multiple prospects to Aaron Donald. That’s not fair to them or Donald, but in this case I need to point out Kancey is very similar to Donald in terms of size and speed. This does not mean he will be able to play like Donald. For one thing, he hasn’t proven he can match Donald’s explosiveness or agility. For another, prospects with similar athletic profiles do not necessarily have the same NFL outcomes, particularly when one has proven to be an enormous outlier.

Let’s focus on what Kancey has shown us on film. He’s proven to be an effective pass-rusher, with 14.5 sacks over his past 23 games. There’s room for growth if he develops more versatility in his pass-rush technique. One cause for concern is his arm length. He’s a bit short-armed (two inches shorter than Donald), and might have trouble winning on initial contact in the NFL. I’m a bit concerned larger guards might be able to bully him. It will be a test of size vs. speed.

I’m curious if Kancey might project as a 3-4 DE. While he isn’t a true edge, I’d expect that between his quickness and lower center of gravity, he should be able to do a solid job of holding the edge. On passing downs, I’d trust him to work inside.

Arm-length concerns aside, Kancey should be a solid defensive lineman at the next level. I’d be looking to pick him up early on day two.

Kancey should prove to be a nice addition in Tampa Bay.

Depth is a bit of an issue. The Bucs cut Akeem Hicks and William Gholston. They re-signed Gholston, but Hicks remains a free-agent. Hicks is a monster against the run. 2022 second-round pick Logan Hall (2.5 sacks, 12 hits+hurries) returns as part of the rotation.

2021 first-round pick edge rusher Joe Tryon-Shoyinka (four sacks, 40 hits+hurries) will line up across from Shaquil Barrett (three sacks, 22 hits+hurries). Anthony Nelson (5.5 sacks, 10 hits+hurries) and rookie third-round pick Yaya Diaby will also be part of the rotation.

Diaby is a premium athlete. He had nine sacks last season at Louisville. I have to confess that I would not have touched him until day three. His skills and technique will need a lot of work before he can find consistent success in the NFL.

Inside linebacker Lavonte David has begun a slow decline from a very high peak. He’s still a premium defender. He’s just not as dominant as he once was.

He’ll be paired with Devon White (5.5 sacks, 36 hits+hurries). White is playing on his fifth-year option. He wants a new contract and requested a trade, but backtracked once he realized he didn’t have leverage. This is an elite pairing and one of the reasons the Bucs’ defense held up last season.

2021 fifth-round pick K.J. Britt and rookie fifth-round pick SirVocea Dennis will provide depth.

Cornerbacks Jamel Dean and Carlton Davis form a strong pairing. Dean has done an excellent job in coverage. Davis has been no slouch in coverage while also providing elite run support.

It looks like Dee Delaney is taking over in the slot. He’s had mixed results in very limited usage. I’m skeptical he’s ready for his close-up.

The back end of the secondary will look different now that safeties Mike Edwards and Keanu Neal have departed for greener pastures. Budget free-agent pickup strong safety Ryan Neal will pair with 2020 second-round pick free safety Antoine Winfield to replace them.

Winfield was torched in the slot last year. He did a fine job at safety in 2021. As for Ryan Neal, I thought he played well in Seattle last season. This might end up working out for the Bucs.

I’m a little concerned there isn’t much depth in the secondary. 2022 fifth-round pick Zyon McCollum looks like the next man up. He was overmatched last season.

After a few years of being lousy, the Bucs’ special teams graduated to being atrocious in 2022. Kicker Ryan Succop is out. He’ll be replaced by either Chase McLaughlin or Rodrigo Blankenship.

2022 fourth-round pick Jake Camarda was quite good on punts, but his awful coverage units let him down. He also handled kickoffs. He was decent there. The coverage units were not.

Devon Thompkins is battling Trey Palmer for the punt return job, and Rachaad White for the kick return job. I’d like to see new blood at both spots, as Thompkins doesn’t bring much to the table.

The Buccaneers might end up having a decent defense, but unless Baker Mayfield can find his pre-injury form, this offense looks awful. There’s no depth behind the top two wide receivers. The offensive line has a ton of questions. The good news is the schedule is Charmin soft, so the record might be better than this roster deserves. 6-11.

2023 NFL Preview: NFC West + Introduction

September 4, 2023

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Welcome to Seth Burn’s 2023 NFL Preview.

Let me define a few terms I’ll be using throughout this preview:

Squid: I was looking for a term that encompassed running back carries plus targets. Touches didn’t work because that is carries plus receptions. Opportunities is the term used in fantasy football. I didn’t like that either. I put in “Squid” as a placeholder term until I found something I liked. CAT was suggested (Carries and Targets). That wasn’t bad. I didn’t love it though, so I’m just leaving the placeholder until next year.

Expected Wins: These are the implied wins set by the trading markets. I include these win totals because they are the de facto median expectation for the teams. I normalize the numbers such that the number of expected wins equals 272.

Scouting Wins: This is a formula based upon positional values. The offense gets four values: quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers + tight ends, and offensive line. Quarterbacks are worth roughly as much as the other three offensive values put together. Offensive line is more important than the wide receiving corps, which is more important than the running backs. The defense has three values: defensive line, linebacker corps, and the secondary. I used to value them in that order, but I’ve modified that as the NFL has evolved. Now, all three groups are roughly equal in value. Last and least are the special teams rankings. The reason special teams are valued so low is because their performances are so fluid and unpredictable. A team can have a top-5 special teams value one year, and a bottom-5 special teams value the next without having made many changes. Once those 8 values are given their appropriate weight I produce a team value. I then create a value for the difficulty of that team’s schedule and solve for the expected wins against that strength of schedule.

FPI Wins: These come from ESPN’s FPI projections. Address all questions you have about these to ESPN. They won’t answer you, but at least you might annoy them.

DVOA Wins: These are taken directly from Aaron Schatz’s FTN 2023 Football Almanac (a book that I highly recommend if you have a strong interest in football). Their formula, Defense-adjusted Value Over Average – or DVOA – is fairly complicated and is based on the success rates of each play of the game. It creates values for offense, defense, and special teams. The formula looks for anomalies like over-performance on third down that is unlikely to be repeated. When a team has been “clutch” one season, Football Outsiders generally expects a regression.

DVOA: Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. This judges how well a player performed given the context of the play call, the situation, and the defense faced. However, if your teammates are of poor quality, your DVOA will be affected.

DYAR: Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement. It is an advanced counting stat. Please note that while DVOA is compared to the average performance of similar plays, DYAR is compared to a much lower baseline, specifically replacement level. In theory, 0 is the expected value of freely available league minimum salary talent. The replacement level is set too high, but at this point I’m not sure it is worth fixing it as that would make it hard to compare with previous years.

Adjusted +/-: This is for wide receivers, tight ends, and occasionally running backs. It tells you how many receptions that player had relative to what would have been expected given the type of routes that player was running and how many passes were sent his way. An inaccurate quarterback would often lead to negative numbers. Anything above +3.0 is good. Above +7.0 is very good. An excellent player playing with awful quarterbacks could look very bad by this metric through no fault of his own.

Pythagorean wins- The amount of wins a team would normally win given the amount of points they scored and allowed. The formula is similar to points scored ^ 2.67 / (points allowed ^ 2.67 + points scored ^ 2.67)

PUP List- Players unable to perform. Players who start the season on the PUP list are ineligible for action for the first four weeks. At that point, teams have a three-week window in which to allow the player to begin practicing; from the day the player begins practicing, teams have an additional three-week window in which to decide whether to activate the player to the 53-man roster. If either of those deadlines pass, the player must remain on the PUP list for the remainder of the season.

NFC West:

San Francisco 49ers: 11-6

Seattle Seahawks: 9-7

Los Angeles Rams: 6-11

Arizona Cardinals: 3-14

Arizona Cardinals:

2022 Record: 4-13

Projections:

Scouting Wins: 5.00

DVOA Wins: 5.8

FPI Wins: 5.75

Market Wins: 3.94

Implied Pythag: 22.76%

It’s a rebuilding year out in Arizona. I have to wonder, what are they trying to build this time? Do they still believe in Kyler Murray? Or are they already looking towards the 2024 NFL Draft? For now, the point is moot. Murray is hurt and the Cardinals have nothing to play for this season. Between their potential tank job and the Houston Texans’ first-round pick (more on that here), the Cardinals are in pole position to land the #1 overall pick.

(Update: The tank is in full effect. More on this shortly.)

For now, Colt McCoy will start while Murray recuperates from a torn ACL. McCoy failed to impress in limited usage last season (-49 DYAR, -15.4% DVOA). McCoy will turn 37 in December and has limited upside. Sadly, rookie fifth-round pick Clayton Tune lacks premium upside himself. He’s basically a stopgap if McCoy can’t go.

(Update: The Cardinals cut McCoy. They signed Joshua Dobbs, presumably to be their starting quarterback. Dobbs has appears in three games over the past three seasons. His DVOA over that time is -27.5%, -59 DYAR. Dobbs is not a serious option as the week one starter for a team trying to win. Also, I should probably talk more about Clayton Tune.)

(Update 2.0: Clayton Tune: Tune is a decent athlete. He didn’t show it on film, as he averaged 3.0 yards-per-carry over his college career. Passing wise, he was fine if the play worked as called. He could work through his progressions and throw to the correct read. His mechanics unraveled under pressure. Didn’t appear to have an NFL-level arm. Looked like he knew it too, as his sideline throws were notably conservative. Tune might prove to be the better tanking option, as Dobbs has some NFL experience, while Tune would be making the leap from Houston to the NFL.)

It’s unclear when Murray will be available. Additionally, neither he nor the Cardinals have any incentive to rush him back onto the field. He doesn’t want to come back in a diminished form. The Cardinals don’t want to win so many games that they miss out on the #1 pick. Weird incentives, but at least perhaps they’re aligned.

The wide receiver corps will be playing on hard mode this season. #1WR Marquise Brown did his best last year:

2022: 67 receptions, 709 yards, +0.8 +/-, -11.9% DVOA, 7 DYAR (in 12 games)

Brown has only produced 41 DYAR over his last 44 games. Neither McCoy nor Tune are well equipped to take advantage of Brown’s deep-threat skills.

2021 second-round pick Rondale Moore was only able to appear in eight games last season:

2022: 41 receptions, 414 yards, -0.7 +/-, -11.1% DVOA, 7 DYAR (in 8 games)

Moore came into the NFL as a speedy undersized option with injury concerns. Those concerns have proven apt. It’s unclear if the new offensive scheme will take advantage of Moore’s strengths. It doesn’t help that none of the QB options has the kind of arm strength to hit a tight window.

Slot receiver Greg Dortch will try and build off his 2022 performance:

2022: 52 receptions, 467 yards. +3.7 +/-, -8.2% DVOA, 21 DYAR

Like Moore, Dortch is undersized. Both are 5-7. Departed head coach Kliff Kingsbury had an idea for how to build an offense. It’s unclear if the new regime agrees.

Enter rookie third-round pick Michael Wilson. Wilson is a good athlete with NFL size. I had Wilson as a sixth-round value. Injuries have kept him off the field, limiting him to 14 games over the past three seasons. He’s going to need quite a bit of polish to reach his potential. The Cardinals have time to wait on a project, so perhaps Wilson will pay off once the Cardinals are ready to win.

Free-agent pickup Zach Pascal will provide depth:

2022: 15 receptions, 150 yards, +2.3 +/-, 8.2% DVOA, 32 DYAR

Pascal was a decent complementary piece for the Eagles. I don’t expect him to find the same level of success in Arizona.

#1TE Zach Ertz is also recovering from an ACL & MCL knee injury:

2022: 47 receptions, 406 yards, +3.2 +/-, -4.0% DVOA, 15 DYAR (in 10 games)

It’s unclear when he’ll be available.

(Update: Ertz might be back week one.)

(Update 2.0: Zach isn’t sure he’ll suit up for week one, so neither am I. Also, he says the transition to Josh Dobbs has been ‘seamless.’)

2022 Second-round pick Trey McBride would start in Ertz’s absence:

2022: 29 receptions, 265 yards, +0.3 +/-, -10.6% DVOA, -8 DYAR (in 16 games)

McBride played through a back injury, so between that and poor quarterback play, it’s tough to know where his ceiling is. Tight ends generally take some time to develop, so I’d have some optimism here. Not this year, though. The Cardinals’ offense is not currently dressed for success.

#1RB James Conner was not able to replicate his 2021 success:

2021: 242 squid, 1,127 yards, 10.7% DVOA, 254 DYAR (in 15 games)

2022: 241 squid, 1,082 yards, 3.7% DVOA, 148 DYAR (in 13 games)

Conner did his best. Without a competent passing game opening up the defense, Conner will face tough sledding again this season.

Backup Corey Clement was excellent in limited usage last season (47 DYAR, 29.1% DVOA). Don’t read too much into it, though. There’s a reason Clement has rushed for 850 yards over six seasons.

(Update: The Cardinals didn’t read too much into it. Clement has been moved to the practice squad. 2022 sixth-round pick Keaontay Ingram will be the #2RB. Ingram produced -32 DYAR on 26 squid last season.)

The most exciting move the Cardinals made to improve their offense this offseason was trading up to draft right tackle Paris Johnson Jr.:

Paris Johnson Jr.: No arm length concerns here. Don’t sweat the lack of drills, Johnson looked plenty athletic on film. Johnson has experience at both right guard and left tackle.

Johnson’s size and athleticism gave him an advantage over his competition. He’s still learning the finer points of both pass protection and run blocking. Moving to cover speed rushers was no problem. The same thing with attacking linebackers on the second level. However, in both cases he was prone to being a bit too aggressive and giving defenders an angle in the space Johnson had just vacated.

The toughest issue for Johnson to fix will be lowering his center of gravity. Johnson is more long than thick. He doesn’t quite have the raw power that teams are looking for.

Johnson is an extremely smart dude. Many of the flaws in his game will disappear with reps and coaching. As much as I love Skoronski, Johnson is the more natural fit at left tackle in the NFL. As such, he would be my first offensive lineman off the board.

The Cardinals paid a reasonable price to move up from twelve to six to grab a potential franchise left tackle (12^th, 34^th, 168^th for 6^th and 81^st). He’ll start on the right side while D.J. Humphries starts at left tackle.

I graded Humphries as roughly league-average last season. He did a great job of making contact with the defender but was poor at holding his ground. I’ll say this: a team could do a lot worse than Humphries at left tackle. The Cardinals suffered when he missed roughly half of the 2022 season. Humphries is signed through 2025. I suppose Johnson will be given time to develop.

2020 third-round pick Josh Jones stepped in when Humphries was out. He did a decent job of preventing pressure, but at the expense of being a flag-magnet. He’s fine so long as he’s just being asked to provide depth.

It looks like budget free-agent pickup Elijah Wilkinson will start at left guard. I thought he was lousy in Atlanta last season.

Budget free-agent pickup Hjalte Frohold was awful in Cleveland last season. Right now he’s penciled in at center. His best usage is to provide interior line depth. If he ends up starting, it’s a bad sign for the Cardinals.

(Update: He’s starting, but with the Cardinals tanking, it’s hard to tell if it’s a bad sign or a smart move.)

Right guard Will Hernandez is the bright spot for the Cardinals on the interior. He was slightly above-average in 2022.

I think the best-case scenario for the Cardinals is that Johnson and Humphries neutralize the outside pass rush. I expect the interior of the line to struggle unless the Cardinals make one more move in free agency. The Cardinals look to have the worst offense in the NFL.

If you expect things to get better on the other side of the ball, I have some bad news for you. The Cardinals lost Zach Allen (5.5 sacks, 41 hits+hurries), J.J. Watt (12.5 sacks, 58 hits+hurries), and Markus Golden (2.5 sacks, 45 hits+hurries).

2022 second-round pick edge rushers Cameron Thomas (three sacks) and Myjai Sanders (three sacks) will be asked to pick up the slack. I wish them best of luck. Rookie second-round pick BJ Ojulari will join the rotation:

BJ Ojulari: I was very disappointed when Ojulari didn’t run at the combine or his pro day. He generated quite a bit of pressure at LSU. Only 12.5 sacks in has past two seasons, though (with 20 tackles for a loss).

Ojulari dealt with a patella knee injury in college. Between that and his hamstring injury that kept him from running the 40, I have some medical concerns. Ojulari is a bit undersized and the violence of the game has already dealt him some wear and tear. I am skeptical Ojulari has the strength to ever be a premium run defender. I don’t have access to his medicals. I can say the player I saw in the latter half of 2022 was not a top 100 pick. The hope is that he’ll be able to find his pre-injury form in the NFL.

I wouldn’t be interested in gambling on Ojulari until round three. And frankly, if he’s still there, I’d wonder why no one else saw fit to take him.

(Update: Myjai Sanders is starting the season on IR as he recovers from a hand injury. Dennis Gardeck (one sack, 12 hits+hurries) has been promoted to the starting lineup.)

Budget free-agent pickup L.J. Collier is slated to start at defensive end. He produced zero sacks (three hits+hurries) in limited usage last season.

It looks like the plan is to pair oft-injured 2020 fourth-round pick defensive tackle Rashard Lawrence with budget free-agent pickup Carlos Watkins. 2020 fourth-round pick Leki Fotu and budget free-agent pickup Kevin Strong will provide depth.

(Update: Lawrence is out. 2022 undrafted free-agent Jonathan Ledbetter will see more playing time. I have him rated as a mediocrity.)

In theory, 2021 first-round pick inside linebacker Zaven Collins and free-agent pickup Kyzir White are the core strength of the defense that the Cardinals hope to build around. Collins did a decent job last season. I wouldn’t call him a star. More like he’s not part of the problem. As for White, he has 254 tackles over the past two seasons and will likely maintain that rate if he stays healthy. Rookie fifth-round pick Owen Pappoe will provide depth. FWIW, I liked the Pappoe selection.

(Update: Budget free-agent pickup Krys Barnes will also be in the mix. Barnes failed to impress in limited usage last season in Green Bay).

2020 first-round pick linebacker-safety hybrid Isaiah Simmons has never developed into a competent player at either position. I’d appreciate his versatility if he were a backup providing quality depth. As is, he’s a weak link that opponents have targeted with great success. He may end up being a nickel safety this season. The Cardinals declined his fifth-year option, so he’s playing for a new contract.

(Update: Simmons will be playing for that new contract in NY, as Arizona traded him away for a 2024 seventh-round pick. Oof!)

The secondary has its own issues. #1CB 2021 fourth-round pick Marco Wilson produced three interceptions last season. Overall, he did a decent job.

#2CB Antonio Hamilton has one interception over 84 games in his seven-year career. He’s only made nine starts and is better suited for a backup role.

Rookie third-round pick Garrett Williams is still recovering from a torn ACL he suffered in college. The hope was that he’d be back on the field in July. We’ll have to wait and see when he’ll be available:

Garrett Williams: This one is going to hurt. I like Williams (Go Orange!), but knee issues plagued him in college and prevented him from running at the combine.

Back in 2020 he got on the national radar with a pick six against Trevor Lawrence. He had two interceptions in seven games in 2022. But… he missed the rest of the season due to thigh and knee ACL issues.

He’s also never produced a season with a negative EPA. Last season was his best with 1.9 EPA on 22 targets, 0.09 EPA-per-target. Previously in his college career he’d allowed 0.25 EPA-per-target on 103 targets. Not great.

Credit where credit is due, Williams has avoided flags and provided value as a gunner on special teams. He’s been active in run support, averaging more than five tackles per game.

I just don’t know how much I can trust Williams without having clearance from a medical staff. Williams makes my “do not draft” list. 😦

Budget free-agent pickup Kris Boyd will provide depth. He has zero career interceptions over 58 games (six starts).

(Update: It looks like rookie sixth-round pick Kei’trel Clark will see significant playing time. Clark is a decent athlete. On most teams he’d be earning his keep on special teams while he learned his craft. I expect him to get toasted early and often.)

Free safety Jalen Thompson has 231 tackles and four interceptions over the past two seasons. It would be nice if he could focus on being a ball hawk, but it’s more likely he’ll have to protect Wilson and Hamilton.

Strong safety Budda Baker is the one premium player left on this defense. In 2020, the Cardinals made him the highest paid safety in football. He requested a trade in April, but the Cardinals were able to soothe him with a $2.4M raise. If he’s healthy, I’m confident he’ll make an impact.

Apart from Simmons, the Cardinals don’t have much depth here. If Baker goes down, this defense looks atrocious.

Matt Haack and Nolan Cooney are competing for the punter job. Haack is pretty bad, so let’s root for Cooney (go Orange!)

(Update: Cooney won! Woohoo!

Kicker Matt Prater is roughly league-average. That makes him one of the elite performers on this roster.

It looks like Greg Dortch will inherit the return duties. He’s done an… acceptable job returning kicks and punts in his NFL career.

I expect the Cardinals’ blocking and return units will both be mediocre. Having said that, the Cardinals have more important concerns.

I am genuinely impressed by the Cardinals’ commitment to the bit. This roster stinks. With Murray out, they should be clear underdogs to every other team in the NFL. The Cardinals are going after the #1 overall pick. If anyone else wants it, they’ll need to earn it.

The silver lining for the Cardinals is they have a ton of 2024 draft capital. It’s not just that they should be able to grab the top pick. They also have Houston’s first-round pick. Next year should be an exciting one in Arizona. This year? They’re tanking hard and hoping no one else scoops them. It’s a new front office and a new coaching staff, so the natural urge is to impress ownership. I’d suggest that they resist that urge and focus on what matters. 3-14.

Los Angeles Rams

2022 Record: 5-12

Projections:

Scouting Wins: 7.61

DVOA Wins: 5.8

FPI Wins: 7.25

Market Wins: 6.29

Implied Pythag: 35.62%

I am not sure a team has ever crashed this hard after winning the Super Bowl. It started in the preseason when the Rams were concerned about Matthew Stafford’s elbow and put him on load management. As I wrote last year:

“Load management, eh? Let me suggest that it’s never a good thing when your quarterback is experiencing pain in his throwing arm. Additionally, it’s not good when said quarterback isn’t taking preseason snaps. I suppose the Rams’ backup quarterback (John Wolford) will be better prepared.”

Let’s see how that worked out:

2021: 4,886 yards, 41 TD, 17 INT, 7.4 NY/P, 14.6% DVOA, 1,096 DYAR

2022: 2,087 yards, 10 TD, 8 INT, 5.6 NY/P, -8.0% DVOA, 61 DYAR (in nine games)

WOOF! Stafford was a shell of himself. It didn’t help that the Rams’ offensive line collapsed. It was just a bad scene all around. Stafford turned 35 in February. I’m concerned that we won’t ever see the 2021 version of him ever again. The hope is that the offensive line improves, wide receiver Cooper Kupp stays healthy, and we get a version of Stafford that is close to what we saw in 2021. Is that realistic? I’m skeptical. Let’s start with #1WR Kupp:

2021: 145 receptions, 1,947 yards, +17.3 +/-, 27.6% DVOA, 618 DYAR

2022: 75 receptions, 812 yards, +7.1 +/-, 4.5% DVOA, 132 DYAR (in nine games)

Kupp saw his efficiency drop quite a bit last season. Like with Stafford, he’ll benefit if the offensive line improves. I’ll come back to this. For now, let me say that while I do expect Kupp to come back from his high ankle sprain at 100%, he turned 30 in June and some decline would be natural. My only real concern is that the Rams have a variety of options who work best out of the slot, which is where Kupp shines.

(Update: Kupp has been slowed by a hamstring injury. It might be more serious than the Rams and Kupp had thought. Kupp’s timetable is uncertain.)

2020 second-round pick Van Jefferson did a decent job last season:

2021: 50 receptions, 802 yards, -4.4 +/-, -1.1% DVOA, 84 DYAR

2022: 24 receptions, 369 yards, -0.3 +/-, 15.2% DVOA, 100 DYAR (in 11 games)

If he can stay healthy, he’s a potential deep threat who can work from the slot or outside. If Kupp can stay healthy, Jefferson looks like a solid #2 option.

2021 seventh-round pick Ben Skowronek had a rough year:

2022: 39 receptions, 376 yards, -2.2 +/-, -22.3% DVOA, -46 DYAR (in 14 games)

On the plus side, he’s a capable blocker. Alas, that’s not normally enough to get one into the starting lineup. Last year, injuries forced him onto the field. This year, a paucity of options has given him the inside track to start again. Frankly, his playing time is indicative of the lack of depth on this roster.

2022 second-round pick Tutu Atwell finally saw some playing time last season:

2022: 18 receptions, 298 yards, -2.3 +/-, 3.9% DVOA, 48 DYAR (in 13 games)

Atwell’s size suggests he needs to work from the slot to be effective. That’s a tough ask on a team with multiple better options that also want to work inside. I still expect him to see more play this season, as Skowronek doesn’t threaten defenses the way Atwell can. McVay just needs to find good ways for all the pieces to fit together.

Rookie fifth-round pick Puka Nacua will provide depth. He’s been notably good running jet sweeps, so look for the Rams to use him to keep defenses honest.

Budget free-agent pickup Demarcus Robinson is coming off of a poor season in Baltimore:

2022: 48 receptions, 458 yards, -3.2 +/-, -18.2% DVOA, -32 DYAR

In theory he was expected to provide depth, but given the state of the receiver corps, we may see Robinson out on the field.

#1TE Tyler Higbee wasn’t able to make much of an impact last season:

2021: 61 receptions, 560 yards, +1.5 +/-, 2.5% DVOA, 58 DYAR (in 15 games)

2022: 72 receptions, 620 yards, -7.3 +/-, -8.4% DVOA, -8 DYAR

The main issue was that Higbee was the recipient of a number of check downs when the quarterback had to get rid of the ball due to poor offensive line protection. Hopefully this season he’ll be able to reach back to his pre-Stafford levels (19.6% DVOA, 112 DYAR in 2020).

#2TE Hunter Long wasn’t able to stay healthy in Miami and is currently on the PUP list. If he can get on the field, he might end up being used as a deep threat up the seam.

(Update: 2020 fourth-round pick Brycen Hopkins has been promoted to #2TE. Hopkins was decent (10.5% DVOA, 13 DYAR) in limited usage last season.)

2020 second-round pick #1RB Cam Akers has produced -91 DYAR over his time in Los Angeles. He missed most of 2021 with an Achilles injury. I’m willing to let his poor playoff performance slide, but he has still failed to produce a single season with a positive rushing DYAR. He’s in a contract year, so if he’s capable of living up to his lofty draft status, we should see his best this season.

Rookie sixth-round pick Zach Evans is competing with 2022 fifth-round pick Kyren Williams for the #2RB job. Williams was injured and didn’t do much last season (28 DYAR in limited usage). As for Evans, I had him as a fourth-round value:

Zach Evans: Solid combine. Hasn’t shown he can contribute in the passing game. Had 144 carries for 936 yards, 9 TD, 17 EPA for Ole Miss last season.

Doesn’t overthink things in the backfield, which is a mixed blessing. He’ll attack the line of scrimmage and hit the hole as it opens. This led to a decent number of productive gains. The flip side is he lacks the patience to wait and see how the play develops.

I’m a tad concerned that hip and toe injuries have nagged him during his college career. As red flags go, this one is minor.

Evans is a running back who brings little else to the table. These guys are available on day three.

I view Evans as the more talented of the two backup options. We’ll see if McVay agrees.

I’ve talked a bit about the poor performance of the Rams’ offensive line. It was truly awful. 2018 third-round pick left tackle Joe Noteboom was groomed to be the successor to Andrew Whitworth. He got demolished last season. He suffered a torn Achilles week six and the only good thing I can say is that at least there wasn’t a huge drop-off after his injury.

Backup Alaric Jackson was also awful in limited usage last season.

The Rams addressed their issues at left guard with the selection of second-round pick Steve Avila:

Steve Avila: Short and stout. Avila has a lot of the skills teams look for. No holding penalties or sacks allowed in 2022. Powerful run blocker.

Can be a bit slow off of the snap. That led to a small issue with false starts. He’s made 17 starts at center and might move back there in the pros.

Avila is excellent at anchoring against a power rush. His weakness is adjusting to stunts, particularly when he has to work in space without help. This is an area where he’ll need to be in the right scheme to minimize this. There’s also an issue where he showed some confusion when he didn’t have someone to block and was unsure of where he should provide help.

His new employer will need to clean up his technique and blitz recognition. Avila provides a rare blend of size and power inside. He’s not a good fit for a scheme that prizes athleticism. I’d be comfortable taking him in the back half of round two.

I’m not going to quibble with how early the Rams selected Avila. They desperately needed to use their limited resources to improve their offensive line.

Center Brian Allen missed most of last season with knee, thumb, calf, and elbow injuries. When “healthy” he was mediocre. He might lose his starting job to Coleman Shelton. Shelton was a bit better than Allen last season. If he can clean up a minor issue with penalties, Shelton would be a clear improvement.

The Rams hope 2022 third-round pick Logan Bruss will be able to start at right guard. He missed last season with an ACL/MCL injury. I want to note that I gave Bruss a sixth-round grade and was not impressed with his performance at Wisconsin.

If Bruss can’t go, 2020 seventh-round pick Tremayne Anchrum will likely start. Anchrum is coming back from a broken leg and isn’t an inspiring option.

(Update: It’s Anchrum. Bruss is on the practice squad.)

The good news is that right tackle Rob Havenstein stayed healthy last season. The bad news is he finished outside of my top 30 in the positional rankings. 😦

Rookie fifth-round pick Warren McClendon will provide depth.

There is one other Rams draft pick I’d like to talk about: Rookie fourth-round pick quarterback Stetson Bennett. I don’t believe Bennett has the size or arm strength to play quarterback in the NFL. His success in college was mostly due to him having dominant teammates. This is a roster with a ton of holes. I feel like this pick could have been better used to patch one of them.

Much has been made of the Rams’ defense only having one first or second-round pick on the roster (Aaron Donald). That’s mostly just a statistical oddity. The bigger issue is the paucity of pass-rushers. The Rams need to replace Leonard Floyd (nine sacks, 51 hits+hurries), Justin Hollins (3.5 sacks, 12 hits+hurries), and Bobby Wagner (six sacks, 17 hits+hurries). Floyd was their premier edge-rusher. Wagner’s loss leaves a hole in the middle of the defense.

The losses don’t stop there. The Rams also need to replace defensive linemen A’Shawn Robinson and Greg Gaines. Aaron Donald (five sacks, 36 hits+hurries in 11 games) remains a monster, but he might have precious little help. The projected defensive line rotation includes Aaron Donald (five sacks, 36 hits+hurries), 2021 fourth-round pick Bobby Brown, Marquise Copeland, Jonah Williams, and rookie third-round pick Kobie Turner.

The returning players combined for 1.5 sacks and 19 hits+hurries last season. Turner did not make my top 300 prospects. He’s undersized with short arms. Perhaps the Rams have a good idea how to take advantage of his strengths and mitigate his weaknesses. Or perhaps this was a sizable reach at a non-premium position.

Edge rusher Michael Hoecht (4.5 sacks, 21 hits+hurries) will start across from rookie third-round pick Byron Young. Hoecht has been a DT/OLB hybrid, but it looks like he’ll be shifting outside full-time. As for Young:

Byron Young: 4.4 speed at 250. That’s something special. He turned 25 in March. That’s something…

Young had 12.5 sacks in two seasons at Tennessee. His lack of length was an issue, often losing in hand-to-hand combat with the offensive linemen. It’s a problem that will only be exacerbated in the NFL.

There isn’t much depth behind Hoecht and Young. 2022 seventh-round pick Daniel Hardy has played mostly on special teams. Rookie fifth-round pick Nick Hampton might break in early as a part of the rotation:

Nick Hampton: 18 sacks in his final 23 games at Appalachian State. Strong combine. Hampton projects as a pass-rush specialist. I have difficulty seeing him being able to bulk up and hold the edge.

As a specialist he’s going to need to develop a better set of skills. There’s only so much he could learn at Appalachian State. As such, he’s going to need some time to develop. The potential upside is that he becomes an elite weapon against the passing game.

Hampton isn’t going to fit every scheme. I’m comfortable taking him early day three if he’s a good fit for your system.

It looks like 2021 third-round pick Ernest Jones will start at inside linebacker in the base nickel. Christian Rozeboom will join him in the 3-4. We’ve mostly seen Rozeboom on special teams. As for Jones, he was a weak link in the passing game last season. I’m worried that he’s not well prepared to handle his increased responsibilities.

Aaron Donald aside, this looks like a dreadful front-seven. It doesn’t get much better when you look at the secondary. Budget free-agent pickup cornerback Akhello Witherspoon will start across from 2022 sixth-round pick Derion Kendrick. Witherspoon only appeared in four games last season. He had one interception, but wasn’t impressive overall. Kendrick wasn’t great either.

The one bit of good news is that 2022 fourth-round pick nickelback Cobie Durant had three interceptions despite only playing 281 snaps. He looked pretty good in the slot and might prove to be the Rams’ best defensive back. Rookie sixth-round pick Tre Hodges-Tomlinson will provide depth. My thoughts on Tomlinson from before the draft:

Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson: “Can I sell you a cornerback? Won the Thorpe Award.”

“I’m listening. Does he have size and speed?”

“He’s got speed.”

“And size?”

“I said he’s got speed. Stop asking for everything. You want him or not?”

Hodges-Tomlinson has speed. He also has documented production at TCU. He was dominant last season (three interceptions, -47.2 EPA on 69 targets, -0.68 EPA-per-target). It wasn’t a fluke either, as he produced -30.3 career EPA at TCU before 2022.

There’s a problem, though. I’m not referring to the obvious issue of his size, although it’s related. It’s that to produce these results Hodges-Tomlinson needs to play a physical brand of off-ball coverage. The off-ball part is fine. The penalties he commits are not (14 in 2022). That changes the calculus quite a bit.

Hodges-Tomlinson won the Thorpe Award for the best defensive back in college football last season. He’ll need to significantly refine his coverage to play in the NFL. I will say that’s he’s better than you might think against the run. Being willing to take on contact helps.

My sense is that Hodges-Tomlinson will manage to win a job at nickel and will, in a few years, be a consistent contributor. That makes him worth a late third or early fourth round selection.

Clearly the NFL was less impressed with Tomlinson than I was. 2021 fourth-round pick Robert Rochelle didn’t play much last season. He’ll be competing with Tomlinson for the dime job.

Things are no better at safety. The Rams need to replace Nick Scott and Taylor Rapp. John Johnson signed for the veteran minimum and should start at free safety. 2020 sixth-round pick Jordan Fuller will likely start at strong safety. The Rams might also use 2022 sixth-round pick Quentin Lake, although he’s seen most of his playing time at cornerback.

The Rams’ special teams have been rebuilt. Rookie seventh-round pick Ethan Evans will take over as the punter. Former Cowboy Brett Maher will be the kicker. Rookie fifth-round pick Puka Nacua will return punts. 2022 fifth-round pick Kyren Williams will return kicks. The blocking and coverage units were poor last season. I’d expect much the same this year, as this simply isn’t a very talented roster.

I have no idea what kind of trade value Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, and Aaron Donald each have. I’m sure all three are happy to stay in LA, but man, this is a terrible roster. If I were the GM, I’d be tempted to do a complete rebuild. As is, this is a roster with three stars and no depth. I suppose there’s a fair amount of room for upside surprise. There’s also the real possibility that the defense stinks and the offensive line is overmatched. If the Rams are trying to win, 6-11 seems reasonable. The entire house of cards could collapse if Stafford or Donald goes down. 6-11.

(Editor’s note: If not for Arizona, Los Angeles would have elite tanking potential. However, Arizona has already committed, which will make it tougher for the Rams to snag the top pick. Tough scene.)

San Francisco 49ers:

2022 Record: 13-4

Projections:

Scouting Wins: 10.88

DVOA Wins: 11.1

FPI Wins: 10.15

Market Wins: 10.84

Implied Pythag: 62.89%

Let’s look back to where the 49ers were heading into last season:

Trey Lance was QB1. Jimmy Garoppolo and his agents were told they were free to seek a trade. Garoppolo was coming off of shoulder surgery, so the 49ers were told that they would need to throw in draft capital to unload Garoppolo’s contract. The 49ers balked and kept him as an insurance policy.

Week 1: Trey Lance has a rough first week, going 13-28 with one interception in a 19-10 loss in Chicago. The weather was brutal.

Week 2: Trey Lance suffers a season-ending ankle injury. Jimmy G leads the 49ers to victory. Jimmy G’s 2022 season:

2022: 2,437 yards, 16 TD, 3 INT, 7.2 NY/P, 30.4% DVOA, 860 DYAR (in 11 games)

Garoppolo played the bulk of ten games, leading the 49ers to a 7-3 record in them. Unfortunately, Garoppolo suffered a foot injury against Miami that ended his campaign.

Enter Mr. Irrelevant, Brock Purdy:

2022: 1,374 yards, 13 TD, 4 INT, 7.1 NY/P, 21.5% DVOA, 389 DYAR (in nine games)

The 49ers’ offense kept trucking under Purdy. That ended when Purdy got hurt in the NFC Championship Game, effectively ending the 49ers’ season.

Garoppolo is now in Las Vegas. Both Purdy and Lance are still recovering from injuries. The 49ers have made it clear that Purdy will regain his starting job when healthy. The 49ers needed another quarterback, so they acquired Sam Darnold:

2022: 1,143 yards, 7 TD, 3 INT, 7.3 NY/P, 23.2% DVOA, 271 DYAR (in six games)

I need to note that the Panthers asked very little of him. Darnold is coming off of the most efficient season of his career. The key is that playing quarterback for the 49ers is a cheat code. Head coach Kyle Shanahan is a brilliant offensive mind. The 49ers are loaded with skill talent. If Darnold is capable of sustaining success, San Francisco is the place he will do it.

Brock Purdy is coming back from a torn UCL. His recovery has been going well and he is projected to be available week one. If he’s 100%, the 49ers are hopeful he’ll be able to pick up from where he left off last season.

Trey Lance is in a different situation. Apparently he had suffered a hairline fracture to his finger in 2021 that did not heal properly. He’s currently battling with Darnold for the #2QB job. It’s impossible to know what Lance is capable of. I will say this: If Lance is able to not only beat out Darnold, but also impress enough to beat out Purdy, that is the scariest version of the 49ers. Between his size, mobility, and arm strength, Lance presents threats Purdy (and Darnold) cannot match. However, that’s a moot point if he can’t run the offense as efficiently as Purdy. So this will be an interesting preseason for the 49ers.

(Update: Oh boy. Lance lost the competition, and has since been traded to the Cowboys. Budget free-agent pickup Brandon Allen will be QB3. Allen has averaged 5.2 NY/P over his career. Let’s hope we don’t have to speak of him again.)

Whoever starts at quarterback will enjoy working with 2020 first-round pick #1WR Brandon Aiyuk:

2021: 56 receptions, 826 yards, +0.9 +/-, 21.9% DVOA, 227 DYAR

2022: 78 receptions, 1,015 yards, +2.1 +/-, 16.4% DVOA, 262 DYAR

The 49ers picked up Aiyuk’s fifth-year option. Aiyuk might not be as versatile as some of his teammates, but he makes up for that by being a quality mid-to-deep threat.

Deebo Samuel was pretty great in 2021:

2021 receiving: 77 receptions, 1,405 yards, -2.3 +/-, 12.4% DVOA, 231 DYAR (in 16 games)

2021 rushing: 59 carries, 365 yards, 44.2% DVOA, 255 DYAR (in 16 games)

He was less impressive last season:

2022 receiving: 56 receptions, 632 yards, -11.0 +/-, -15.7% DVOA, -23 DYAR (in 13 games)

2022 rushing: 42 carried, 232 yards, -39.4% DVOA, -2 DYAR (in 13 games)

Between a holdout and nagging injuries, Samuel simply wasn’t as explosive as he had been. If he’s back to 100%, this is an area where the 49ers could improve over last season. It’s hard for me to believe he’ll be below replacement-level again this year.

2022 third-round pick Danny Gray was drafted to give Trey Lance a speedy option to stretch the field. Like Lance, Gray suffered injuries and barely played last season. I had a fifth-round grade on Gray due to his difficulties creating separation. My expectation is he’ll have to work his way up the depth chart.

(Update: Gray will start the season on injured reserve.)

The good news for Gray is that the depth chart is shallow. 2020 seventh-round pick Jauan Jennings has worked out of the slot, but he wasn’t very effective:

2022: 35 receptions, 416 yards, -2.2 +/-, -9.4% DVOA, 14 DYAR (in 16 games)

I will note that Jennings is a better blocker than Gray, which gives him some optionality Gray lacks. OTOH, Gray is a much better athlete, which creates space for the offense to work with.

The other option is return specialist Ray-Ray McCloud:

2022: 14 receptions, 243 yards, +0.8 +/-, 17.0% DVOA, 53 DYAR

(Update: McCloud broke his wrist and will be out for a few months.)

With a lot of mouths to feed, those are pretty good numbers for someone who did most of his damage returning punts. He also returned kicks… poorly.

With all the carnage, rookie seventh-round pick Ronnie Bell might get a look. Bell is a decent athlete. He tore his ACL in 2021. If he’s fully healthy, he might prove a useful fourth option.

#1TE George Kittle remains one of the best in the league:

2021: 71 receptions, 910 yards, +5.4 +/-, 20.1% DVOA, 166 DYAR (in 14 games)

2022: 60 receptions, 765 yards, +3.1 +/-, 22.6% DVOA, 178 DYAR (in 15 games)

I should note that Purdy and Kittle bonded fast. It’s a solid pairing so long as both remain healthy.

I’m not sure what the 49ers are planning to do with rookie third-round pick Cameron Latu. He’s slow and undersized. I gave him a fifth round grade. Perhaps Shanahan wants to experiment with some 2TE sets.

#1RB Christian McCaffrey was dynamite in San Francisco:

2022: 352 squid, 1,880 yards, 7.6% DVOA, 323 DYAR

He’s an elite target. McCaffrey gave Shanahan another weapon and his addition provided immediate dividends. Having him for a full season should allow for even more creativity.

2021 sixth-round pick Elijah Mitchell was involved in the play on 61.25% of his 80 snaps (31.7% DVOA, 88 DYAR). He had serious issues staying healthy and only appeared in five games. The 49ers would like to use him if he’s available.

#3RB Jordan Mason was effective (43 carries, 258 yards, 16.6% DVOA, 46 DYAR). He had zero targets and doesn’t provide much help in the passing game.

I had a day-three grade on 2022 third-round pick Tyrion Davis-Price. He had 34 carries for 99 yards (-46.6% DVOA, -55 DYAR). Brutal.

Fullback Kyle Jusczyk had 19 receptions for 200 yards (51.4% DVOA, 86 DYAR). You’ll generally see him either in the backfield or working as a blocking tight end. Occasionally he’ll split out wide. He’s a good blocker who can take advantage of holes in the zone when defenses are distracted by the other receiving options.

I’m a little concerned that the 49ers’ offensive line will drag the offense down. They were quite good last season. They lost right tackle Mike McGlinchey to free agency. Left tackle Trent Williams turned 35 in July. Williams is still pretty good but is declining. McGlinchey put together his best season in a contract year. He’ll be replaced by 2020 fifth-round pick Colton McKivitz. We haven’t seen much from McKivitz. I will say the 49ers aren’t paying him much, so if he can do the job, he’s a nice find.

The interior of the line has all returned. 2021 second-round pick left guard Aaron Banks was solid. Center Jake Brendel did a decent job blocking, but he murdered the 49ers with flags. He needs to clean his game up. 2022 fourth-round pick right guard Spencer Burford was a bit above-average, which is fine work for a rookie. Hopefully, all three players step up to help make up for the loss of McGlinchey.

Budget free-agent pickup Matt Pryor will provide depth outside.

Last season the 49ers’ defense finished 1^st in the DVOA rankings at -14.1%. You have to go all the way back to the 2007 Tennessee Titans to find a less dominant defense finishing atop the rankings (-13.9%). That’s not to denigrate the 49ers’ defense. They were the best in the NFL and are the favorites to be the best defense in the NFL again this season. I just want to point out that there are levels of greatness, and there are higher levels that the 49ers can aspire to.

Any hope of the 49ers’ defense improving on their 2022 performance starts with the return of defensive end Nick Bosa (18.5 sacks, 87 hits+hurries). Bosa is one of the most disruptive players in the NFL. He’s currently looking for a new contract, and his agent, Brian Ayrault, is playing hardball. Ayrault represented Nick’s brother Joey when he held out for a month in 2016. Joey got a new deal. I expect Nick to do so as well.

(Update: This one is going down to the wire. Bosa might not be available week one in Pittsburgh.)

The 49ers already have to replace edge rushers Charles Omenihu (4.5 sacks, 37 hits+hurries) and Samson Ebukam (five sacks, 34 hits+hurries).

Budget free-agent pickup Clelin Ferrell (two sacks, 20 hits+hurries) and 2022 second-round pick Drake Jackson (three sacks, 12 hits+hurries) will be asked to pick up the slack.

Kerry Hyder (one sack, 13 hits+hurries) and rookie fifth-round pick Robert Beal will provide depth.

(Editor’s note: The 49ers need Bosa.)

The 49ers added premium free-agent defensive tackle Javon Hargave (11 sacks, 33 hits+hurries). Hargrave gives the 49ers an added dimension of an interior pass-rush they previously lacked.

Arik Armstead and 2020 first-round pick Javon Kinlaw only appeared in a combined 15 games last season. Armstead had no sacks last season after having six in 2021. The 49ers declined Kinlaw’s fifth-year option, so he’s in a contract year. He’s only produced 1.5 sacks in 24 games and will be looking to generate more pressure when given the opportunity this season.

Middle linebacker Fred Warner remains one of the best at his position in the NFL. He’ll be flanked by Dre Greenlaw. Greenlaw was excellent last season. Oren Burks is the weak link of the unit. I expect the 49ers to play a fair amount of base 4-2-5, and use Burks on running downs. There isn’t much quality depth here, so it’s important that Warner and Greenlaw stay healthy.

The 49ers paid a premium price for #1CB Charvarius Ward. He allowed a higher completion percentage than he did in 2021 in Kansas City, but gave up fewer yards per target. Overall, I think the 49ers were happy with his performance.

2021 fifth-round pick Deommodore Lenoir is competing with 2022 fifth-round pick Samuel Womack for the #2CB job. Lenoir struggled last season. We haven’t see much from Womack.

Free-agent pickup Isaiah Oliver is taking over in the slot. I think he was a pretty good addition at a reasonable price.

Free safety Tashaun Gipson and strong safety 2021 fifth-round pick Talanoa Hufanga combined for nine interceptions last season. I thought Gipson did a fine job overall. Hufanga is still learning the finer points of the job and should be even better this season. Rookie third-round pick Ja’Ayir Brown will provide depth:

Ji’Ayir Brown: Ugh (poor combine). Brown does not have the range teams want. He compensated for that by making very quick decisions. There’s some downside to that, as sometimes he ran himself out of position. The upside is 10 interceptions in 26 games.

The reality is that Brown’s lack of range showed up on the stat sheet. He averaged a little more than five and a half tackles per game over the last two seasons. The last line of defense he is not.

Brown has good centerfield skills. He’s smart and reads plays well. I can’t fault his effort. He’s just not fast enough to be a premium player. His weaknesses will become more pronounced against more athletic competition.

Brown will need to go a team that offers him some schematic protection. The less area he’s responsible for, the better. His instincts and aggressiveness are legit. I like Brown in the back half of round three.

New defensive coordinator Steve Wilks has a defensive backfield background. I’m curious to see how he intends to use Brown.

Rookie third-round pick Jake Moody is taking over at kicker. Moody was easily my top kicker on the board. I would not have considered taking him until day three. The 49ers are thin in certain spots and probably could have used help on the defensive line, or another wide receiver, or at offensive tackle, or a potential #2CB. Instead, they have a new kicker. I will say Moody should be a solid improvement over the departed Robbie Gould.

2019 fourth-round pick punter Mitch Wishnowsky is pretty good. He does a nice job of protecting his coverage units.

Ray-Ray McCloud did a fine job returning punts and a lousy job returning kicks. Willie Snead and rookie seventh-round pick Ronnie Bell are available for one or both of those jobs.

The 49ers are looking to get back to the NFC Championship Game. If Purdy can stay healthy, it’s a real possibility. If Darnold can build upon his performance last season, it’s a possibility. If Trey Lance can live up to his draft status, it’s a possibility. I’m just not sure which path the 49ers will take.

This is a team built to win now. The addition of Javon Hargrave should boost the defense. Javon Kinlaw showing out in his contract year would be a nice bonus. I’m presuming the 49ers make peace with Nick Bosa. This defense should be excellent, even with the loss of former defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans. I have faith that Wilks will know what he’s doing.

One bit of good news for the 49ers is that both Arizona and Los Angeles look terrible. The Seahawks should be their main division rival. The 49ers look to have an easier overall schedule than the defending NFC Champion Philadelphia Eagles. The 49ers head to Philadelphia December 3^rd in a game that might determine the #1 seed in the NFC. But that requires that the 49ers find a healthy quarterback to lead them. 11-6.

(Update: Purdy appears to be healthy, so at least there’s good news on that front.)

Seattle Seahawks:

2022 Record: 9-8

Projections:

Scouting Wins: 7.93

DVOA Wins: 8.2

FPI Wins: 8.5

Market Wins: 8.89

Implied Pythag: 51.23%

Kudos to the Seahawks for making the playoffs last season. Their ability to maintain such success will come down to the performance of quarterback Geno Smith. However, before I talk about Mr. Smith, I’d like to look at the skill talent he’ll be working with. Let’s start with wide receiver Tyler Lockett:

2020: 100 receptions, 1,054 yards, +9.8 +/-, 9.8% DVOA, 238 DYAR

2021: 73 receptions, 1,175 yards, +12.0 +/-, 22.8% DVOA, 308 DYAR (in 16 games)

2022: 84 receptions, 1,033 yards, +12.4 +/-, 15.6% DVOA, 257 DYAR (in 16 games)

I expected that Lockett would miss Russell Wilson. I was wrong. Lockett put up another solid performance in Seattle. Lockett has generally worked from the slot, but he might see his usage shift due to the addition of rookie first-round pick Jaxon Smith-Njigba:

Jaxon Smith-Njigba: Dominant working out of the slot in 2021 (95 receptions, 1,606 yards, 9 touchdowns on 113 targets). Missed most of 2022 with a hamstring injury. Solid mix of size and athleticism. Like Addison, was able to beat coverage with elite route-running ability. Defenses knew they had to stop him late in 2021 and they couldn’t. His 15 catch, 347 yard, 3 touchdown Rose Bowl performance against Utah remains firmly in NFL teams’ minds.

There are some questions as to Jaxon’s ability dominate at the next level. For one, he doesn’t have elite speed. For another, the hamstring injury that nagged him throughout 2022 remains a concern.

After the strong rookie performances of Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave, Ohio State receivers are on a roll in the NFL. Jaxon will likely be the first wide receiver off the board.

My main concern is that the slot is both a cheat code and a limited resource. Well, that, and the fact that Jaxon is not a premium athlete. It’s possible that my thinking here is a bit anachronistic and that I should be more willing to grant a pure slot receiver #1WR (in the draft) status. While he lacks true elite speed, his agility is tops in the class and should allow him to create separation at the next level.

If Jaxon can stay healthy he should be a quality slot receiver. I’d take him outside of the top 10, although not ahead of Quentin Johnson. Due to the size differences, I’d take Jaxon over Addison (presuming a clean bill of health from my medical staff).

(Editor’s note: Per SIS Jaxon added 97.2 points for the Buckeyes in 2021. That’s an obscene level of efficiency. Quentin Johnson added 35.2 points in his college career. I get why Jaxon is expected to be the first wide receiver off the board.)

I’m sure the Seahawks’ offensive staff have been drawing up plays that maximize the effectiveness of JSN and Lockett. They’ll also need to see what they can do to reverse the decline of DK Metcalf:

2020: 83 receptions, 1,303 yards, +6.8 +/-, 19.5% DVOA, 335 DYAR

2021: 75 receptions, 967 yards, -0.5 +/-, -1.8% DVOA, 113 DYAR

2022: 90 receptions, 1,048 yards, -2.3 +/-, -7.9% DVOA, 52 DYAR

Metcalf remains a premier deep threat. I’m not sure Geno Smith has the arm strength to take advantage of Metcalf’s skills. Metcalf is capable of stretching a defense, but only if they disrespect the quarterback’s ability and willingness to test them deep.

There’s not a lot of trusted depth behind the top three wide receivers. JSN dealt with a wrist injury this preseason, but should be good to go.

The Seahawks gave all three of their tight ends significant playing time. The net results for Seahawks TE:

2022: 109 receptions, 1,157 yards, +12.0 +/-, 15.4% DVOA, 208 DYAR

That’s pretty, pretty, pretty good. #1TE Noah Fant received the lion’s share of the targets and the most defensive attention. Will Dissly is mostly a blocker. Geno Smith took advantage of defensive lapses when they left Dissly wide open. 2020 fourth-round pick Colby Parkinson did a decent job when given an opportunity to make plays. He’s clearly the #3TE, but at least the Seahawks have good depth if someone gets hurt.

2022 second-round pick running back Kenneth Walker did not have a great rookie season:

2022: 263 squid, 1,215 yards, -12.2% DVOA, -31 DYAR

It’s Walker’s nature to look for big plays, but that came at the expense of consistent production. Also, Walker didn’t provide much value in the passing game, either as a receiver or as a blocker. Enter rookie second-round pick Zach Charbonnet:

Zach Charbonnet: A decent athlete. Doesn’t have the elite speed or traits teams are looking for. Productive at UCLA last season:

2022: 239 squid, 1,680 yards, 14 TD, 56 EPA

Notably strong work ethic. Aggressive in pass protection. Excellent ball protection technique to avoid fumbles. Very good vision allowed him to prepare for hits while powering through for extra yardage. Competent receiver. Charbonnet is a player who looks like he’s always giving max effort.

That will occasionally cause him to have “happy feet” in the backfield as he tries to find a hole that might never open. His coaching staff might ask him to be slightly less patient. It’s a minor quibble, though.

The real issue with Charbonnet is he’s fungible. He doesn’t have elite speed like Gibbs. He’ll never be as dangerous in space as Robinson. Charbonnet can’t threaten defensive backs the same way the top of the class can.

Charbonnet is does a lot of things well. His hands will earn his coach’s trust. I’m just not sure how highly to value his skill-set. Every team in the league has needs at more premium positions than running back. My guess is Charbonnet belongs in round three.

Charbonnet brings some skills to the table that Walker lacks. I don’t approve of drafting running backs in round two, particularly not in back-to-back drafts. Still, what’s done is done and the Seahawks should see better production from this unit in 2023.

2020 fourth-round pick DeeJay Dallas is also available:

2021: 56 squid, 271 yards, 0.9% DVOA, 31 DYAR

2022: 54 squid, 312 yards, 17.1% DVOA, 68 DYAR

Dallas is a competent RB3.

The Seahawks have done a commendable job of surrounding Geno Smith with talent. The tricky part will be Smith maintaining the quality of play he showed last season. I’m going to ignore the first half of Smith’s career in NY. Let’s look at what Smith did in Seattle in 2020-2021:

2020-2021: 735 yards, 5 TD, 1 INT, 5.4 NY/P, -3.2% DVOA, 59 DYAR (in six games)

2022: 4,282 yards, 30 TD, 11 INT, 6.3 NY/P, 7.3% DVOA, 812 DYAR

That’s an enormous leap. Smith started the season on fire, leading to one of the great lines of the season. He cooled off a bit later as the Seahawks ended up losing seven of their final ten games (counting the playoff loss to San Francisco).

It actually could have been even worse had the Seahawks not been the beneficiary of multiple game-changing calls in their season finale against the Rams. The net result of that was that the Lions were eliminated from the playoffs. That meant the Packers and Aaron Rodgers were playing a home game win-and-in against a team with nothing to play for. The Packers ended up losing that game, so… karma?

In any event, the Seahawks will need to find a way to surpass the 49ers if they want to reclaim NFC West supremacy. I don’t think Geno Smith is anywhere close to the player he looked like early last season. His contract extension is quite reasonable, both in terms of compensation and percentage of the 2023 salary cap.

I must concede there’s a possibility that 2022 isn’t Smith’s peak. If he builds off his performance, the Seahawks could be legitimate contenders. I’m just not expecting that. Smith’s limitations are visible on film. Defenses adjusted to his strengths. Now it’s up to Smith and the Seahawks to take countermeasures. We’ll see if they can.

2022 first-round pick left tackle Charles Cross did a solid job last season. I graded him as roughly league-average, which is a nice performance for a rookie.

2020 third-round pick left guard Damien Lewis was a bit above-average. If he continues to improve, he could crack the top ten just in time for a new contract.

Center was a weak link for the Seahawks last season. The retired Austin Blythe will be replaced by either free-agent pickup Evan Brown or rookie fifth-round pick Olu Oluwatimia:

Olu Oluwatimi: Oluwatimi won the Rimington Trophy (best collegiate center), the Outland Trophy (best interior offensive lineman), and was a first-team All American. I… am not sure why.

I watched his film expecting to see greatness. Or at least rock-solid consistency. Instead, I saw a player I’m not sure can hold his own at the next level. His combine was mediocre. Smallish hands.

Don’t get me wrong. He was fine. He did a nice job battling if he was ever out of position. Solid anchor. Polished technique in the running game. Was able to make his blocks, if not highlights.

I wonder if Oluwatimi was praised for being the leader of a very strong offensive line, even if he wasn’t a truly dominant center. I see him as a late day two or early day three value. I’d definitely prefer bother Schmitz and Tippman over him.

Brown was mediocre at right guard last season in Detroit. He’s a journeyman and likely a stopgap until Olu develops.

Right guard is another area the Seahawks need to address. Phil Haynes did a lousy job in backup duty last season. He’ll be starting this year. Rookie fourth-round pick Anthony Bradford might be the long-term answer. Bradford has an excellent mix of size and athleticism. Bradford’s power is notable on film. His weakness is that his poor lateral mobility led to open rushers. If Seattle can help him fix the holes in his game, there’s a lot of upside here.

2022 third-round pick right tackle Abraham Lucas was roughly league-average last season. As with Cross, that’s a great performance from a rookie. If both tackles can improve with more experience, they could end up being a great pairing. 2021 sixth-round pick Stone Forsythe will provide depth.

Seattle’s defensive line is in a bit of a transitional period. Gone are Poona Ford, Quinton Jefferson, Shelby Harris, and Al Woods.

Free agent pickups Dre’mont Jones and Jarran Reed will be starting on the defensive line. Jones (6.5 sacks, 31 hits+hurries) was a premium addition. Budget free-agent pickup Mario Edwards will be part of the rotation as well.

If healthy, nose tackle Bryan Mone will start. He’s still recovering from an ACL injury and his return date is uncertain. Rookie fourth-round pick Cameron Young will start if Mone isn’t available. Young is a long-armed space-eater.

(Update: Mone will start the season on the PUP list. Young might not start though, but expect to see quite a bit of him until Mone returns.)

Rookie fifth-round pick Mike Morris will provide depth:

Mike Morris: Had 7.5 sacks in 12 games last year at Michigan. Decent athleticism if we view him at a defensive tackle. He was hoping to project as a quality defensive end. The funny part is those are his combine numbers. He ran a 5.06 40 on his pro day.

Ultimately, he’s a tweener. He doesn’t have the athletic profile for an edge, and he’s undersized at tackle. The kicker is he had around 40 tackles in final 26 games at Michigan. Woof!

Look, if you get 7.5 sacks in your final season at a premier program, you’re probably cracking my top 100. Morris does not have a holistically impressive body of work. Nor does he have a great profile. That drops him into day three. I’d start considering him outside of the top 125.

The Seahawks are a bit thin on the defensive line until Mone comes back.

Edge-rushers Uchenna Nwosu (9.5 sacks, 62 hits+hurries) and Darrell Taylor (9.5 sacks, 34 hits+hurries) are coming off of excellent seasons. They will lead the pass rush rotation, along with 2022 second-round pick Boye Mafe (three sacks, 11 hits+hurries) and rookie second-round pick Derick Hall:

Derick Hall: 16 sacks in his final 25 games at Auburn. Majestic combine. The film though… Hall has no discernible pass rush finesse. It’s kind of weird to see. There’s strength, athleticism, and aggression. Dude tried and succeeded. It’s just that he had a really shallow bag of tricks. It was jarring once I noticed it.

At Auburn, the coaching staff would regularly drop him into coverage. I think they figured he was a good athlete, so might as well? Frankly, it was not the best use of Hall’s talents and I’d expect him to do so less in the NFL.

On the plus side, this means he has a ton of room for growth. I’d consider Hall a bit of a project given how much he’ll need to learn in his first few years in the league. The upside potential is worth an investment outside of the top 45 or so.

The Seahawks declined their fifth-year option on inside linebacker Jordyn Brooks. He’s recovering from an ACL tear he suffered late last season. Brooks has 345 tackles in his last 33 games, but hasn’t made the impact in the passing game Seattle was hoping for.

Depending on Brooks’s availability, we may see quite a bit of Bobby Wagner and Devin Bush. Wagner is returning to Seattle after a stint with the Rams. He did a fine job attacking the line-of-scrimmage (six sacks, 17 hits+hurries). His coverage skills aren’t what they were, though.

(Update: It looks like Brooks is good to go.)

As for Bush, he never really worked out in Pittsburgh. He was supposed to have the speed of a linebacker/safety hybrid, but the coverage skills never developed. That might have been forgivable if he had more than four sacks in four seasons. Seattle has their work cut out for them with this rehab project.

Cornerback Tariq Woolen finished third in the 2022 defensive rookie of the year voting. The winner (Sauce Gardner) was the fourth overall pick. The runner up, Aidan Hutchinson, was the second overall pick. Kayvon Thibodeaux finished fourth, and was the fifth overall pick. Woolen was a fifth-round pick. He was a revelation, finishing with six interceptions. Just an awesome performance from a truly elite athlete.

Woolen will start across from Michael Jackson. Jackson did a decent job, but could be moved to the dime if Seattle finds a better option.

2022 fourth-round pick Coby Bryant wasn’t quite as effective as Woolen. Bryant was working in the slot. Enter first-round pick Devon Witherspoon:

Devon Witherspoon: A hamstring injury prevented Witherspoon from running at the combine. He ran the 40 on his pro day. For the most part, the film tells us what we need to know about Witherspoon.

The first thing that jumps out from watching Witherspoon is his aggressiveness. He’s not passively covering his man. He’s constantly looking to get an edge and make a play. Grabbed three interceptions last year despite opposing quarterbacks mostly trying to avoid challenging him. He’s not afraid of getting physical with larger receivers.

In the NFL he’ll need to be careful about drawing holding flags, as he does have a tendency to grab when he feels the receiver creating some separation. Also, his closing speed was good, not great. True speedsters will challenge him.

Witherspoon did a fine job in zone. He’s better in man, though, as that plays to his natural strengths. Not counting the plays where he was penalized, Witherspoon produced -46.5 EPA on 56 targets (-0.83 EPA-per-target). Great stuff.

Witherspoon will never make it easy on you to beat him. That means he’ll get plenty of pass breakups, at the risk of giving up a big play. I see some boom/bust to his game. And then there’s the issue of his size. In the running game he often felt the need to go low, which led to some missed tackles and big gains. I don’t fault the effort, just the technique (and the power limitations). He weighed 185 at his pro day. His future employer will want him to keep that weight on.

There’s some question as to whether or not Witherspoon will be able to stay outside, or if the slot is his future home. Elite slot defenders become more important every year. My best guess is he’ll end up playing in both areas and it will be matchup-dependent. I don’t want to overthink this one. Witherspoon can play. My clear #2CB and a top-ten value.

Witherspoon should be able to make an immediate impact in Seattle. Budget free-agent pickup Artie Burns will provide depth.

Free safety Quandre Diggs did an excellent job, snagging four interceptions, and generally scaring offenses from throwing in his direction.

The Seahawks are hoping Jamal Adams will be healthy enough to start at strong safety. Adams is rehabbing from a torn quad. If he’s healthy, he might be able to recapture his elite form. He’ll turn 28 in October and should still be near his prime (injuries permitting.)

If Adams can’t go, look for free-agent pickup Julian Love to start. Love is a reasonable option, but man, the Seahawks have spent a ton of resources at strong safety. I hope it works out for them.

(Update: Adams is out for week one, and Witherspoon is dealing with a hamstring injury. Uh oh.)

The Seahawks have maintained consistently strong special teams. Punter Michael Dickson is one of the best in the league. Even in a down year, he did a fine job working with his coverage team.

Kicker Jason Myers did a fine job (and got paid.)

It looks like DeeJay Dallas will return both kicks and punts. He was mediocre returning punts last season. The good news is that Seattle has good coverage and blocking units. Even if Dallas isn’t great, the Seahawks should remain well above average on special teams.

This is a surprisingly talented roster. The Seahawks hit on multiple draft picks in 2022. They’ve added another potentially elite wide receiver, as well as the top slot cornerback in the draft. I’m a little concerned about the pass coverage from the inside linebackers, but that’s a small issue.

The major concern is what kind of performance we’ll see from Geno Smith. The truth is, after the hot start, Seattle wasn’t very good for the bulk of the season. That’s due to Smith’s regression. My sense is that Smith is not going to be as good as he was last year, so the rest of the roster will need to pick up the slack. They’re deep enough that they can finish at 9-8 with a caretaker quarterback. That’s not a recipe for playoff success, though. 9-8.

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—sethburn

Football and cats. Mostly football.

Brief NCAA Playoff Thoughts

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Washington	1.88
Michigan	1.65
Georgia	1.57
Florida St	1.23
Texas	1.14
Alabama	1.04
Washington Loss	0.88
Ohio St	0.82
Michigan Loss	0.65
Oregon	0.58
Georgia Loss	0.57