ESPN’s FPI loves Notre Dame!

This is a true and deep love. Perhaps even an everlasting love.

Let’s compare ESPN’s FPI projections to current market estimates:

Team	Market	ESPN
Alabama	74.13%	47.00%
Clemson	54.95%	67.00%
Ohio State	37.50%	37.00%
Georgia	32.05%	46.00%
Washington	26.97%	41.00%
Michigan	19.80%	8.00%
Wisconsin	15.29%	11.00%
Auburn	11.83%	17.00%
Oklahoma	16.16%	24.00%
Penn State	15.61%	16.00%
Michigan State	9.76%	15.00%
Notre Dame	9.14%	42.00%
Texas	9.14%	3.00%
Miami	8.39%	7.00%
Florida State	7.71%	1.00%
Stanford	6.75%	6.00%
USC	6.18%	2.00%
LSU	4.94%	NL
Mississippi State	4.94%	3.00%
West Virginia	4.70%	NL
Texas A&M	4.40%	NL
Oregon	3.82%	0.01
Virginia Tech	3.21%	NL
TCU	3.21%	NL
Florida	2.82%	NL
Nebraska	1.24%	NL
Oklahoma State	1.24%	1.00%

Let’s start at the top: ESPN says Alabama is more likely to miss the playoff than make it. That’s seems bonkers. They are quite optimistic about Clemson’s chances. They are also quite high on Georgia, Oklahoma, and Washington. We’ll see how that goes for them. However, nothing compares to their confidence in Notre Dame.

The market price on Notre Dame allows some room for discussion, but 42% to make the playoff? 10% to win the National Title? You can shop around and find prices on Notre Dame at better than 50-1 to be crowned champions. This is a bold opinion.

Please note, if we count Oregon and Florida State at 1%, ESPN has a 5% chance someone not listed makes the playoff. Market estimates have a 4.1% chance that someone not listed will make the playoff. Of course, that’s with seven addition teams listed. Let’s give ESPN at $10K bankroll and limitless credit and see what they recommend:

Team	Playoffs?!	Risked	To Win
Alabama	Out	2933	8800
Clemson	In	1915	1321
Ohio State	Out	195	118
Georgia	In	1600	1880
Washington	In	1418	3120
Michigan	Out	5320	1097
Wisconsin	Out	2300	383
Auburn	In	514	3600
Oklahoma	In	748	3440
Penn State	Out	400	80
Michigan State	In	192	1250
Notre Dame	In	3308	21500
Texas	Out	6175	526
Miami	No Bet	0	0
Florida State	Out	8490	602
Stanford	No Bet	0	0
USC	Out	6300	360
LSU	Out	7650	340
Mississippi State	Out	2950	131
West Virginia	Out	7525	317
Texas A&M	Out	7325	284
Oregon	Out	6850	225
Virginia Tech	Out	6150	164
TCU	Out	6150	164
Florida	Out	5650	133
Nebraska	Out	900	10
Oklahoma State	Out	900	10

Please note, for wagering purposes I’ve capped the chances of a team missing the playoff at 99%. If I had an additional significant digit from ESPN, so of these wagers might be quite a bit larger.

Here are there projections with what they’ve written about them:

http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/24310810/introducing-college-football-playoff-predictor-which-likes-clemson-better-alabama

And a video:

http://www.espn.com/video/clip?id=24315236

 

 

 

 

 

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Roster-based Wins

I ran the scout grades for the individual roster units to see how things were looking for the 2018 season and there were… some surprises. I’ll go division by division:

AFC East- Yes the Patriots are on top, but the the Bills aren’t nearly as far behind as I would have assumed. The Bills appear to have a reasonably competent roster, while the Jets and Dolphins have a lot of work to do. Note, this is just roster-based, so it doesn’t take the Patriots coaching edge into account.

AFC North- The Browns have been making progress, but it will take some time.

AFC South- I was surprised the Texans didn’t get more love. If Deshaun Watson stays healthy, they look like a scary team. Jaguars are loaded despite the constant Blake Bortles problem.

AFC West- Not a whole lot separating the teams in the division. I’m surprised the Broncos roster grades out as well as it does. The Chargers are considered dark-horses to take the AFC, but their roster might not be up to snuff.

NFC East- The Eagles are in great shape. The only major problem for them is that they’ll face some tough competition in the playoffs.

NFC North- WHAT??? The Vikings graded out with a slightly better roster, but the Lions have the easier schedule. The Packers roster, apart from Rodgers, is garbage. The Vikings and Packers implied Pythags are well beyond those of the Lions, so I’m pretty skeptical. Of note is the gap between the Eagles and Vikings, which is quite a bit larger than I was expecting.

NFC South- The Saints have been getting a lot of love as their offense is expected to dominate. The Falcons are right there with them though. The Panthers defense looks solid, but the offense isn’t as stacked.

NFC West- The Rams look like monsters. The Seahawks roster has fallen off considerably (imagine the offense without Russell Wilson). The 49ers roster has been improved, with Jimmy G. being the key.

These are a lot less important than the previously mentioned implied Pythags, but they do provide a distant-early warning that some teams lack the depth that’s required over a season of attrition.

One final note: The NFC as a whole looks quite a bit stronger than the AFC. We’ll see how that plays out during the regular season.

New England Patriots	10.54
Buffalo Bills	7.81
New York Jets	5.12
Miami Dolphins	4.74
Pittsburgh Steelers	10.87
Baltimore Ravens	7.76
Cincinnati Bengals	6.03
Cleveland Browns	4.97
Jacksonville Jaguars	9.93
Tennessee Titans	8.23
Houston Texans	7.87
Indianapolis Colts	6.09
Los Angeles Chargers	8.86
Denver Broncos	8.17
Kansas City Chiefs	7.89
Oakland Raiders	7.37
Philadelphia Eagles	11.39
Dallas Cowboys	8.2
New York Giants	6.12
Washington Redskins	5.98
Detroit Lions	9.31
Minnesota Vikings	9.27
Green Bay Packers	8.47
Chicago Bears	6.41
New Orleans Saints	10.66
Atlanta Falcons	10.5
Carolina Panthers	8.55
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	6.16
Los Angeles Rams	10.76
San Francisco 49ers	8.19
Seattle Seahawks	7.46
Arizona Cardinals	6.47

NFL Implied Pythags

These were taken from the NFL Season Win Totals and then adjusted by schedule. Since the Patriots have the easiest schedule in the NFL (again), they took the largest hit. That wasn’t enough to knock them from the top spot though. Apart from the Steelers, no one in the AFC is close. Of course, they own the Steelers, so yes, the Patriots remain the AFC favorites.

The NFC has three elite teams, with the Saints and Packers nipping at their heels.

Despite going 1-31 over the past two seasons, the Browns are not at the bottom of the Pythags. That spot belongs to the woeful Jets. The Bills and Dolphins also sit in the bottom six. Sigh.

New England Patriots	0.6693
Philadelphia Eagles	0.6439
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.6335
Los Angeles Rams	0.6264
Minnesota Vikings	0.6258
New Orleans Saints	0.5948
Green Bay Packers	0.5901
Los Angeles Chargers	0.5633
Atlanta Falcons	0.5632
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.5569
Houston Texans	0.5295
Carolina Panthers	0.5201
Dallas Cowboys	0.519
Kansas City Chiefs	0.5188
Baltimore Ravens	0.5004
San Francisco 49ers	0.4983
Oakland Raiders	0.4887
Tennessee Titans	0.4877
Seattle Seahawks	0.483
Detroit Lions	0.4658
New York Giants	0.4622
Denver Broncos	0.4529
Cincinnati Bengals	0.4398
Washington Redskins	0.4322
Indianapolis Colts	0.4289
Chicago Bears	0.4189
Miami Dolphins	0.4124
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.3942
Arizona Cardinals	0.3929
Cleveland Browns	0.3736
Buffalo Bills	0.3598
New York Jets	0.3495

World Cup Pythags

I must say that there isn’t a lot separating the top teams. I suspect France isn’t this good. Portugal as well. England might be quite a bit better than this would suggest, but they’re England, so they’ll find a way to flame out anyway.

Personally I’ll be rooting for Japan for make it out of the group stage. After that, we’ll see.

Brazil	0.8362
Germany	0.8286
Spain	0.8266
France	0.8194
Argentina	0.7994
Belgium	0.7757
England	0.7408
Uruguay	0.7248
Colombia	0.6763
Portugal	0.6570
Croatia	0.6565
Poland	0.5892
Russia	0.5526
Denmark	0.5490
Senegal	0.5020
Mexico	0.4867
Switzerland	0.4708
Peru	0.4623
Serbia	0.4214
Sweden	0.4120
Egypt	0.3832
Japan	0.3725
Nigeria	0.3637
Morocco	0.3316
Iceland	0.3193
Tunisia	0.3147
Australia	0.2648
Korea Republic	0.2539
Iran	0.2291
Costa Rica	0.2202
Panama	0.1700
Saudi Arabia	0.1646

In their groups

Uruguay	0.7248
Russia	0.5526
Egypt	0.3832
Saudi Arabia	0.1646
Spain	0.8266
Morocco	0.3316
Portugal	0.6570
Iran	0.2291
France	0.8194
Peru	0.4623
Australia	0.2648
Denmark	0.5490
Croatia	0.6565
Argentina	0.7994
Nigeria	0.3637
Iceland	0.3193
Switzerland	0.4708
Brazil	0.8362
Serbia	0.4214
Costa Rica	0.2202
Sweden	0.4120
Germany	0.8286
Korea Republic	0.2539
Mexico	0.4867
England	0.7408
Belgium	0.7757
Tunisia	0.3147
Panama	0.1700
Poland	0.5892
Senegal	0.5020
Colombia	0.6763
Japan	0.3725

Cavs or Bust: 538’s tale (ESPN and NC escape)

538 got off to a rough start before the playoffs even began:

interesting idea to put these numbers on national TV pic.twitter.com/ptLWRnhiNk

— Kunk (@Kunk7) April 14, 2018

Those predictions were hilariously off-market at the time. Golden State was roughly pick’em to win the West, while the Cavs were the slight favorites in the East. The playoffs themselves haven’t gone better for 538’s model:

538	Risked	To Win	Result
Spurs	3557	23616	-3557
Raptors	3700	617	617
Sixers	2800	560	560
Pelicans	978	1760	1760
Celtics	3034	1920	1920
Pacers	1207	5456	-1207
Jazz	467	560	560
Timberwolves	187	2800	-187
Pelicans R2	3071	19840	-3071
Jazz R2	1640	16400	-1640
Celtics R2	1168	4790	4790
Raptors R2	2048	1113	-2048
Celtics R3	1521	3680	-1521
Rockets R3	6733	12120	-6733
Cavaliers R4	1300	10010	0
		Current Tab	-9757

They’re down 97.57% of their starting bankroll. They aren’t giving up hope though, attempting to win it all back through one huge upset. That takes balls (and an off-market model).

ESPN is dodging more losses, although that’s due to some luck on their part. They are underrating both Cleveland and Golden State, which is balancing out to get a roughly accurate series line:

ESPN	Risked	To Win	Result
Spurs	450	2988	-450
Raptors	900	150	150
Heat	375	1500	-375
Pass	0	0	0
Celtics	3808	2410	2410
Pacers	3527	15944	-3527
Thunder	2715	2011	-2715
Rockets	7182	264	264
Pass	0	0	0
Jazz R2	1200	12000	-1200
Celtics R2	3905	16010	16010
Raptors R2	6592	3583	-6592
Celtics R3	6010	14545	-6010
Rockets R3	4436	7984	-4436
Pass	0	0	0
		Current Tab	-6471

Being down 64.71% of their bankroll is not particularly something to celebrate. Mind you, if we were going game-by-game, they’d be on Cleveland in game one, but that’s a story for another blog.

Finally, Nylon Calculus is ending their playoff run down a measly 5.74%:

Nylon Calculus	Risked	To Win	Result
Spurs	450	2988	-450
Pass	0	0	0
Heat	125	500	-125
Pelicans	1444	2600	2600
Bucks	57	80	-57
Pacers	841	3800	-841
Pass	0	0	0
Timberwolves	293	4400	-293
Pelicans R2	1599	10329	-1599
Jazz R2	1266	12660	-1266
Celtics R2	1952	8003	8003
Raptors R2	1366	743	-1366
Celtics R3	2001	4843	-2001
Rockets R3	3179	5722	-3179
Pass	0	0	0
		Current Tab	-574

They too would be backing the Cavs game-by-game, but on the series line, they escape with no further damage.

 

2018 NBA Playoffs Tracking: Celtics & Rockets?

ESPN is investing their Celtics winnings fairly heavily as they have both the Celtics and Rockets as favorites to advance:

ESPN	Risked	To Win	Result
Spurs	450	2988	-450
Raptors	900	150	150
Heat	375	1500	-375
Pass	0	0	0
Celtics	3808	2410	2410
Pacers	3527	15944	-3527
Thunder	2715	2011	-2715
Rockets	7182	264	264
Pass	0	0	0
Jazz R2	1200	12000	-1200
Celtics R2	3905	16010	16010
Raptors R2	6592	3583	-6592
Celtics R3	6010	14545	0
Rockets R3	4436	7984	0
		Current Tab	3975

538 has the Rockets at 79% to advance to the finals. That’s a lot of confidence against the reigning NBA champions. For what it’s worth, they also have the Rockets at 69% to win the title, which is nice.

538	Risked	To Win	Result
Spurs	3557	23616	-3557
Raptors	3700	617	617
Sixers	2800	560	560
Pelicans	978	1760	1760
Celtics	3034	1920	1920
Pacers	1207	5456	-1207
Jazz	467	560	560
Timberwolves	187	2800	-187
Pelicans R2	3071	19840	-3071
Jazz R2	1640	16400	-1640
Celtics R2	1168	4790	4790
Raptors R2	2048	1113	-2048
Celtics R3	1521	3680	0
Rockets R3	6733	12120	0
		Current Tab	-1503

Nylon Calculus isn’t being quite as bold as 538 or ESPN, but they also have the Rockets favored, and are risking a bit under 52% of their bankroll on the conference finals. For the record, that’s insane, just less so than ESPN or 538.

Nylon Calculus	Risked	To Win	Result
Spurs	450	2988	-450
Pass	0	0	0
Heat	125	500	-125
Pelicans	1444	2600	2600
Bucks	57	80	-57
Pacers	841	3800	-841
Pass	0	0	0
Timberwolves	293	4400	-293
Pelicans R2	1599	10329	-1599
Jazz R2	1266	12660	-1266
Celtics R2	1952	8003	8003
Raptors R2	1366	743	-1366
Celtics R3	2001	4843	0
Rockets R3	3179	5722	0
		Current Tab	4606

 

NBA Playoff Tracking: Ain’t no faith in Lebron around here.

ESPN is going full bore on the Raptors (They have them winning the series 88% of the time!):

ESPN	Risked	To Win	Result
Spurs	450	2988	-450
Raptors	900	150	150
Heat	375	1500	-375
Pass	0	0	0
Celtics	3808	2410	2410
Pacers	3527	15944	-3527
Thunder	2715	2011	-2715
Rockets	7182	264	264
Pass	0	0	0
Jazz R2	1200	12000	0
Celtics R2	3905	16010	0
Raptors R2	6592	3583	0
		Current Tab	-4243

538 is confident, but not insanely so:

538	Risked	To Win	Result
Spurs	3557	23616	-3557
Raptors	3700	617	617
Sixers	2800	560	560
Pelicans	978	1760	1760
Celtics	3034	1920	1920
Pacers	1207	5456	-1207
Jazz	467	560	560
Timberwolves	187	2800	-187
Pelicans R2	3071	19840	0
Jazz R2	1640	16400	0
Celtics R2	1168	4790	0
Raptors R2	2048	1113	0
		Current Tab	467

Finally, Nylon Calculus is more cautious still:

Nylon Calculus	Risked	To Win	Result
Spurs	450	2988	-450
Pass	0	0	0
Heat	125	500	-125
Pelicans	1444	2600	2600
Bucks	57	80	-57
Pacers	841	3800	-841
Pass	0	0	0
Timberwolves	293	4400	-293
Pelicans R2	1599	10329	0
Jazz R2	1266	12660	0
Celtics R2	1952	8003	0
Raptors R2	1366	743	0
		Current Tab	834