2018 NFL Draft Top 300

Some notes:

1. With the exception of the exception of the kicking specialists, this does not take positional value into account.
2. Don’t sweat the positions too much. I have a secondary position listed for roughly 10% of them, and that’s being conservative.
3. While I love Lamar Jackson, objectively I have to admit that Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen have better draft profiles.
4. I am not fully taking injury/character risk into account. I’ll account for it when I do writeups of the top prospects.
5. Saquon Barkley is cheating the system a bit. He’s pretty much flawless as a prospect, but he also didn’t dominate the way some college backs did.

Rank	NAME	POS	SCHOOL	Rating
1	Saquon Barkley*	RB	Penn State	97.44
2	Quenton Nelson	G	Notre Dame	95.96
3	Bradley Chubb	DE	NC State	93.93
4	Tremaine Edmunds*	OLB	Virginia Tech	90.36
5	Minkah Fitzpatrick*	CB	Alabama	89.37
6	Roquan Smith*	OLB	Georgia	88.06
7	Derwin James*	S	Florida State	87.58
8	Denzel Ward*	CB	Ohio State	86.28
9	Sam Darnold*	QB	USC	85.93
10	Josh Rosen*	QB	UCLA	85.53
11	Vita Vea*	DT	Washington	84.73
12	Da’Ron Payne*	DT	Alabama	84.30
13	Lamar Jackson*	QB	Louisville	84.06
14	Connor Williams*	OT	Texas	84.00
15	Calvin Ridley*	WR	Alabama	83.95
16	Baker Mayfield	QB	Oklahoma	83.32
17	Isaiah Wynn	G	Georgia	82.86
18	Derrius Guice*	RB	LSU	81.82
19	Taven Bryan*	DT	Florida	81.77
20	Maurice Hurst	DT	Michigan	81.22
21	Harold Landry	OLB	Boston College	81.06
22	Mike McGlinchey	OT	Notre Dame	80.75
23	Ronald Jones II*	RB	USC	80.35
24	Rashaan Evans	LB	Alabama	80.26
25	Jaire Alexander*	CB	Louisville	80.15
26	Josh Jackson*	CB	Iowa	80.14
27	William Hernandez	G	UTEP	80.01
28	Billy Price	C	Ohio State	80.00
29	Marcus Davenport	DE	UT San Antonio	79.50
30	Leighton Vander Esch*	ILB	Boise State	79.32
31	Courtland Sutton*	WR	SMU	79.19
32	James Daniels*	C	Iowa	78.43
33	Sony Michel	RB	Georgia	78.11
34	Ronnie Harrison*	S	Alabama	77.42
35	Nick Chubb	RB	Georgia	77.12
36	Christian Kirk*	WR	Texas A&M	77.00
37	Justin Reid*	S	Stanford	76.32
38	D.J. Moore*	WR	Maryland	76.24
39	Mike Hughes*	CB	UCF	76.16
40	James Washington	WR	Oklahoma State	75.22
41	Carlton Davis*	CB	Auburn	75.08
42	Isaiah Oliver*	CB	Colorado	74.49
43	Dallas Goedert	TE	South Dakota State	74.40
44	Josh Allen*	QB	Wyoming	73.72
45	Austin Corbett	G	Nevada	73.43
46	Chukwuma Okorafor	OT	Western Michigan	73.39
47	Lorenzo Carter	OLB	Georgia	73.31
48	Sam Hubbard*	DE	Ohio State	73.21
49	Jessie Bates III*	S	Wake Forest	72.70
50	Arden Key*	DE	LSU	72.59
51	Tyrell Crosby	OT	Oregon	72.44
52	Orlando Brown*	OT	Oklahoma	72.23
53	Anthony Miller	WR	Memphis	72.00
54	Obo Okoronkwo	OLB	Oklahoma	71.53
55	Frank Ragnow	C	Arkansas	71.31
56	Mike Gesicki	TE	Penn State	70.98
57	Josh Sweat*	DE	Florida State	70.78
58	Hayden Hurst*	TE	South Carolina	70.72
59	D.J. Chark	WR	LSU	70.30
60	Kerryon Johnson*	RB	Auburn	70.23
61	Donte Jackson*	CB	LSU	69.97
62	Rashaad Penny	RB	San Diego State	69.91
63	Martinas Rankin	OT	Mississippi State	69.76
64	Duke Ejiofor	DE	Wake Forest	69.71
65	Dante Pettis	WR	Washington	69.55
66	Nathan Shepherd	DT	Fort Hays State	69.54
67	Kolton Miller*	OT	UCLA	69.32
68	Jerome Baker*	OLB	Ohio State	69.04
69	Mark Andrews*	TE	Oklahoma	69.01
70	Braden Smith	G	Auburn	69.01
71	Malik Jefferson*	OLB	Texas	68.98
72	Jamarco Jones	OT	Ohio State	68.47
73	Harrison Phillips	DT	Stanford	68.18
74	Derrick Nnadi	DT	Florida State	67.69
75	Kyzir White	S	West Virginia	67.17
76	Mason Rudolph	QB	Oklahoma State	66.93
77	Rasheem Green*	DE	USC	66.67
78	Darius Leonard	OLB	South Carolina State	66.30
79	Tim Settle*	DT	Virginia Tech	66.07
80	Brian O’Neill*	OT	Pittsburgh	65.40
81	M.J. Stewart	CB	North Carolina	65.06
82	B.J. Hill	DT	NC State	64.99
83	Kemoko Turay	DE	Rutgers	64.64
84	DeShon Elliott*	S	Texas	64.53
85	Duke Dawson	CB	Florida	64.48
86	Armani Watts	S	Texas A&M	64.38
87	Mason Cole	C	Michigan	64.32
88	Nyheim Hines*	RB	NC State	64.16
89	Deon Cain*	WR	Clemson	64.05
90	Da’Shawn Hand	DE	Alabama	63.78
91	Royce Freeman	RB	Oregon	63.71
92	Equanimeous St. Brown*	WR	Notre Dame	63.55
93	Fred Warner	LB	BYU	63.47
94	Uchenna Nwosu	OLB	USC	63.37
95	Josey Jewell	LB	Iowa	63.30
96	Will Richardson*	OT	NC State	63.01
97	Tyquan Lewis	DE	Ohio State	62.96
98	Quenton Meeks*	CB	Stanford	62.74
99	Andrew Brown	DE	Virginia	62.74
100	Hercules Mata’afa*	DE	Washington State	62.73
101	Marcus Allen	S	Penn State	62.32
102	Anthony Averett	CB	Alabama	62.26
103	DaeSean Hamilton	WR	Penn State	62.23
104	Michael Gallup	WR	Colorado State	62.07
105	Tarvarus McFadden*	CB	Florida State	62.03
106	Jeff Holland*	OLB	Auburn	61.88
107	Mark Walton*	RB	Miami	61.80
108	RJ McIntosh*	DT	Miami	61.32
109	Jordan Whitehead*	S	Pittsburgh	61.25
110	John Kelly*	RB	Tennessee	60.78
111	Jalyn Holmes	DE	Ohio State	60.67
112	Kyle Lauletta	QB	Richmond	60.45
113	Geron Christian*	OT	Louisville	60.21
114	Alex Cappa	OT	Humboldt State	60.06
115	Brandon Parker	OT	North Carolina A&T	60.03
116	Ian Thomas	TE	Indiana	59.85
117	Wyatt Teller	G	Virginia Tech	59.75
118	Quin Blanding	S	Virginia	59.56
119	Deadrin Senat	DT	South Florida	59.38
120	Kalen Ballage	RB	Arizona State	59.33
121	Isaac Yiadom	CB	Boston College	59.28
122	Jaylen Samuels	TE	NC State	59.08
123	Terrell Edmunds*	S	Virginia Tech	58.54
124	Rashaan Gaulden*	CB	Tennessee	58.46
125	Mike White	QB	Western Kentucky	58.17
126	Bo Scarbrough*	RB	Alabama	57.68
127	Josh Adams*	RB	Notre Dame	57.45
128	Allen Lazard	WR	Iowa State	57.40
129	Holton Hill*	CB	Texas	57.39
130	Shaquem Griffin	OLB	UCF	57.00
131	Micah Kiser	LB	Virginia	56.86
132	Christian Campbell	CB	Penn State	56.81
133	Desmond Harrison	OT	West Georgia	56.80
134	Kevin Toliver*	CB	LSU	56.57
135	Nick Nelson*	CB	Wisconsin	56.55
136	Genard Avery	ILB	Memphis	56.39
137	Will Clapp*	C	LSU	56.33
138	Tre’Quan Smith*	WR	UCF	56.26
139	Trenton Thompson*	DT	Georgia	56.24
140	Scott Quessenberry	C	UCLA	55.93
141	Auden Tate*	WR	Florida State	55.77
142	Marcell Ateman	WR	Oklahoma State	55.70
143	Folorunso Fatukasi	DT	UConn	55.47
144	Skai Moore	OLB	South Carolina	55.41
145	Troy Fumagalli	TE	Wisconsin	55.33
146	Chris Herndon	TE	Miami	55.18
147	Breeland Speaks*	DE	Ole Miss	55.14
148	Trayvon Henderson	S	Hawai’i	55.10
149	Keke Coutee*	WR	Texas Tech	54.71
150	J’Mon Moore	WR	Missouri	54.69
151	Tyler Conklin	TE	Central Michigan	54.46
152	Dalton Schultz	TE	Stanford	54.39
153	Dorance Armstrong Jr.*	DE	Kansas	54.21
154	Justin Jones	DT	NC State	53.96
155	Cedrick Wilson	WR	Boise State	53.83
156	Simmie Cobbs*	WR	Indiana	53.57
157	Jordan Lasley*	WR	UCLA	53.55
158	Dane Cruikshank	S	Arizona	53.00
159	Kendrick Norton*	DT	Miami	52.94
160	Chad Thomas	DE	Miami	52.73
161	Danny Johnson	CB	Southern	52.67
162	Parry Nickerson	CB	Tulane	52.66
163	Shaun Dion Hamilton	LB	Alabama	52.41
164	Deontay Burnett*	WR	USC	51.99
165	Taron Johnson	CB	Weber State	51.94
166	Siran Neal	CB	Jacksonville State	51.88
167	Jack Cichy	ILB	Wisconsin	51.58
168	Kentavius Street	DE	NC State	51.53
169	Nick DeLuca	LB	North Dakota State	50.94
170	Marquis Haynes	DE	Ole Miss	50.77
171	Dorian O’Daniel	OLB	Clemson	50.74
172	Durham Smythe	TE	Notre Dame	50.60
173	Trey Quinn*	WR	SMU	50.54
174	J.C. Jackson*	CB	Maryland	50.52
175	Antonio Callaway*	WR	Florida	50.50
176	Darius Phillips	CB	Western Michigan	50.48
177	Toby Weathersby*	OT	LSU	50.26
178	Ade Aruna	DE	Tulane	49.97
179	Joe Noteboom	OT	TCU	49.89
180	Poona Ford	DT	Texas	49.87
181	Javon Wims	WR	Georgia	49.72
182	Christian Sam*	ILB	Arizona State	49.71
183	Luke Falk	QB	Washington State	49.70
184	Tegray Scales	ILB	Indiana	49.69
185	D.J. Reed	CB	Kansas State	49.56
186	Kameron Kelly	S	San Diego State	49.51
187	Skyler Phillips	G	Idaho State	49.50
188	Colby Gossett	G	Appalachian State	49.45
189	Akrum Wadley	RB	Iowa	49.41
190	Jeremy Reaves	S	South Alabama	49.11
191	Brian Allen	C	Michigan State	49.05
192	Kurt Benkert	QB	Virginia	48.94
193	Godwin Igwebuike	S	Northwestern	48.90
194	Kylie Fitts	DE	Utah	48.84
195	Cole Madison	OT	Washington State	48.69
196	Sean Welsh	G	Iowa	48.48
197	Damon Webb	S	Formerly Ohio State	48.04
198	Korey Robertson	WR	Southern Miss	48.00
199	Tray Matthews	S	Auburn	47.96
200	Byron Pringle*	WR	Kansas State	47.49
201	James Looney	DE	California	47.44
202	Timon Parris	OT	Stony Brook	47.32
203	Oren Burks	OLB	Vanderbilt	47.20
204	Mike McCray	ILB	Michigan	47.10
205	Jordan Akins	TE	UCF	47.07
206	Bradley Bozeman	C	Alabama	46.77
207	Chase Litton*	QB	Marshall	46.76
208	Chandon Sullivan	CB	Georgia State	46.73
209	Levi Wallace	CB	Alabama	46.45
210	Lowell Lotulelei	DT	Utah	46.42
211	Ja’Von Rolland-Jones	DE	Arkansas State	46.33
212	Kamrin Moore	CB	Boston College	46.21
213	Leon Jacobs	OLB	Wisconsin	46.07
214	Tony Brown	CB	Alabama	45.92
215	Taylor Hearn*	G	Clemson	45.80
216	Coleman Shelton	C	Washington	45.59
217	Greg Stroman	CB	Virginia Tech	45.42
218	Justin Jackson	RB	Northwestern	45.26
219	Davin Bellamy	OLB	Georgia	45.25
220	Michael Dickson*	P	Texas	45.10
221	Tony Adams	G	null	45.09
222	Jordan Thomas	CB	Oklahoma	45.06
223	Sam Jones*	G	Arizona State	44.98
224	Kenny Young	ILB	UCLA	44.85
225	Matthew Thomas	OLB	Florida State	44.81
226	Garret Dooley	OLB	Wisconsin	44.78
227	D’Montre Wade	CB	Murray State	44.73
228	Ryan Izzo*	TE	Florida State	44.53
229	Brandon Facyson	CB	Virginia Tech	44.45
230	Avonte Maddox	CB	Pittsburgh	44.07
231	Ito Smith	RB	Southern Miss	43.83
232	Jester Weah	WR	Pittsburgh	43.62
233	Jamil Demby	OT	Maine	43.61
234	Chase Edmonds	RB	Fordham	43.56
235	Maea Teuhema*	G	LSU/SE Louisiana	43.53
236	Olasunkanmi Adeniyi*	DE	Toledo	43.40
237	Joe Ostman	DE	Central Michigan	43.13
238	Darren Carrington II	WR	Utah	43.01
239	Dimitri Flowers	RB	Oklahoma	42.88
240	Jason Cabinda	LB	Penn State	42.82
241	Tre’ Williams	LB	Auburn	42.78
242	Brett Toth	OT	Army	42.55
243	Matt Pryor	OT	TCU	42.31
244	Richie James	WR	Middle Tennessee State	42.27
245	Nick Gates*	OT	Nebraska	42.27
246	Troy Apke	S	Penn State	42.09
247	KC McDermott	OT	Miami	42.04
248	Keishawn Bierria	OLB	Washington	41.90
249	Rashard Fant	CB	Indiana	41.85
250	Tracy Walker	S	Louisiana	41.84
251	Peter Kalambayi	OLB	Stanford	41.58
252	P.J. Hall	DT	Sam Houston State	41.57
253	James Hearns	OLB	Louisville	41.51
254	Van Smith*	S	Clemson	41.45
255	Grant Haley	CB	Penn State	41.45
256	Daurice Fountain	WR	Northern Iowa	41.40
257	Joshua Kalu	S	Nebraska	41.25
258	Tre Flowers	S	Oklahoma State	41.24
259	Zachary Crabtree	OT	Oklahoma State	41.08
260	Darrel Williams	RB	LSU	40.92
261	Dejon Allen	G	Hawai’i	40.56
262	Azeem Victor	LB	Washington	40.54
263	Riley Ferguson	QB	Memphis	40.52
264	Chris Worley	ILB	Ohio State	40.50
265	Ryan Nall*	RB	Oregon State	40.39
266	Trevon Young	DE	Louisville	40.39
267	Jaleel Scott	WR	New Mexico State	40.11
268	Daniel Carlson	K	Auburn	39.86
269	Marquez Valdes-Scantling	WR	Null/South Florida	39.85
270	Phillip Lindsay	RB	Colorado	39.77
271	Joel Iyiegbuniwe	LB	Western Kentucky	39.73
272	Michael Joseph	CB	Dubuque	39.63
273	Ethan Wolf	TE	Tennessee	39.61
274	David Bright	OT	Stanford	39.49
275	Dylan Cantrell	WR	Texas Tech	39.31
276	Ja’Whaun Bentley	LB	Purdue	39.28
277	J.T. Barrett	QB	Ohio State	39.19
278	Stephen Roberts	S	Auburn	39.04
279	Ka’Raun White	WR	West Virginia	38.94
280	Bilal Nichols	DT	Delaware	38.88
281	Braxton Berrios	WR	Miami	38.73
282	Marcus Baugh	TE	Ohio State	38.56
283	Chris Warren	RB	Texas	38.29
284	Will Dissly	TE	Washington	38.22
285	Martez Carter	RB	Grambling State	38.16
286	Jarvion Franklin	RB	Western Michigan	38.09
287	JK Scott	P	Alabama	38.06
288	Quadree Henderson*	WR	Pittsburgh	37.98
289	Ralph Webb	RB	Vanderbilt	37.97
290	Dee Delaney	CB	Miami	37.92
291	Dominik Sanders	S	Georgia	37.92
292	Eddie Pineiro	K	Florida	37.90
293	Justin Crawford	RB	West Virginia	37.82
294	JaMarcus King	CB	South Carolina	37.68
295	Jordan Wilkins	RB	Ole Miss	37.62
296	John Atkins	DT	Georgia	37.60
297	Kyle Bosch	G	West Virginia	37.58
298	Deon Yelder	TE	Western Kentucky	37.47
299	Quinton Flowers	QB	South Florida	37.35
300	Natrell Jamerson	S	Wisconsin	37.34

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Playoffs?! Playoff tracking day 2

Yesterday was a lousy day for ESPN, and a terrible one for 538, but a solid one for Nylon Calculus. We’ll see what day two brings. Also, let me note that I have given everyone a $10,000 bankroll. ESPN has been racked by declining viewership and layoffs, while 538 is apparently for sale.

ESPN	Risked	To Win	Result
Spurs	450	2988	0
Raptors	900	150	0
Heat	375	1500	0
Pass	0	0	0
Celtics	3808	2410	0
Pacers	3527	15944	0
Thunder	2715	2011	0
Rockets	7182	264	0

Note: ESPN has the Rockets at greater than 99% to win the series, but I rounded down to 99%. It’s a random fluke that their wagers for the day 2 series are all larger than ones that started yesterday.

538	Risked	To Win	Result
Spurs	3557	23616	0
Raptors	3700	617	0
Sixers	2800	560	0
Pelicans	978	1760	0
Celtics	3034	1920	0
Pacers	1207	5456	0
Jazz	467	560	0
Timberwolves	187	2800	0

It’s kind of amazing that even if the Pelicans, Raptors, and Sixers all win their respective series, a Spurs loss would put 538 in the red. Of course, there are other chances for 538 to get back into the black, so we’ll have to wait and see.

Nylon Calculus	Risked	To Win	Result
Spurs	450	2988	0
Pass	0	0	0
Heat	125	500	0
Pelicans	1444	2600	0
Bucks	57	80	0
Pacers	841	3800	0
Pass	0	0	0
Timberwolves	293	4400	0

Unlike ESPN’s BPI or 538’s Carmelo model, Nylon Calculus seems to have a decent grip on reality. They have a positive EV after day 1 (nice win for the Pelicans last night), and they are much closer to the market prices than ESPN or 538. I’m a tad curious what they futures expectations were, but I didn’t see them on the site. C’est la vie.

Playoffs?! Kelly Tracking 2018

The playoffs are here and ESPN/538 and Nylon Calculus are on it. Let’s see how their predictions do as the playoffs unfold.

If you are curious about their futures, ESPN is here, 538 is here.

ESPN	Risked	To Win	Result
Spurs	450	2988	0
Raptors	900	150	0
Heat	375	1500	0
Pass	0	0	0
538	Risked	To Win	Result
Spurs	3557	23616	0
Raptors	3700	617	0
Sixers	2800	560	0
Pelicans	978	1760	0
Nylon Calculus	Risked	To Win	Result
Spurs	450	2988	0
Pass	0	0	0
Heat	125	500	0
Pelicans	1444	2600	0

How I would seed the bracket

There is pretty much no chance that the committee will see it this way. Pythag has a lot more respect for the Big 10 than the RPI has, and it shows here with the Big 10 getting three teams on the top two seed lines. Surprisingly (to me anyway), the ACC would only get one.

In a WAB (or Implied Pythag) world, Nebraska would be safely in. Ditto for St. Mary’s. Marquette and Middle Tennessee would be the last teams in, while Oklahoma State would be the first team out.

Kansas as a #1 seed makes a lot more sense if you discount everything the Big 10 did. Duke and UNC would both move up to the #2 line as well. Of course, all of this is moot because RPI still rules the world. C’est la vie.

School	Seed
Virginia	1
Villanova	1
Michigan St.	1
Xavier	1
Kansas	2
Purdue	2
Michigan	2
Cincinnati	2
Duke	3
North Carolina	3
Tennessee	3
Gonzaga	3
West Virginia	4
Texas Tech	4
Clemson	4
Ohio St.	4
Auburn	5
Kentucky	5
Wichita St.	5
Arizona	5
Houston	6
Miami FL	6
Kansas St.	6
Arkansas	6
Nevada	7
TCU	7
Rhode Island	7
Seton Hall	7
Virginia Tech	8
Texas A&M	8
St. Bonaventure	8
Nebraska	8
Loyola Chicago	9
Saint Mary’s	9
Creighton	9
New Mexico St.	9
Florida	10
Providence	10
Oklahoma	10
North Carolina St.	10
Florida St.	11
Texas	11
Butler	11.1
Louisville	12.1
South Dakota St.	11
Middle Tennessee	12.1
Marquette	11.1
Murray St.	12
UNC Greensboro	12
Buffalo	12
San Diego St.	13
Montana	13
College of Charleston	13
Davidson	13
Stephen F. Austin	14
Bucknell	14
Marshall	14
Penn	14
Lipscomb	15
Wright St.	15
UMBC	15
Georgia St.	15
Cal St. Fullerton	16
Radford	16
Iona	16.1
Texas Southern	16.2
LIU Brooklyn	16.2
North Carolina Central	16.1
Oklahoma St.	Out
Missouri	Out
UCLA	Out
Baylor	Out
Mississippi St.	Out
Syracuse	Out
USC	Out
Notre Dame	Out

WAB 3/11: Market Predictions

Well see how these play out in a little over four hours:

Alabama: In. Lock.

Arizona State: Out. Live underdog to make the field.

Baylor: Out.

Butler: In. Lock.

Florida State: In. Lock.

Kansas State: In. Lock.

Louisville: Out. Live underdog to make the field.

Marquette: Out.

Middle Tennessee: Out. Live underdog to make the field.

Missouri: In. Lock.

NC State: In. Lock.

Nebraska: Out.

Notre Dame: Out. Live underdog to make the field.

Oklahoma: In. Slight chance of missing the field.

Oklahoma State: Out. Live underdog to make the field.

Providence: In. Lock.

St. Bonaventure: In. Lock. (I’m as shocked as you are)

St. Mary’s: In. Slight chance of missing the field.

Syracuse: Out. Live underdog to make the field.

Texas: In. Lock.

UCLA: In. Lock.

USC: In. Lock.

Utah: Out.

Virginia Tech: In. Lock.

Sorry Nebraska.

Full tables available here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Tsi90fKMaqW26tOUP6theXc3DlMpjGu6u2JnR3mXXkY/edit#gid=0

School	Implied Pythag	Rank Implied Pythag	WAB Avg	Rank WAB	Pythag	Rank Pythag
Virginia	0.9892	1	11.42	1	0.9710	1
Villanova	0.9723	2	9.46	2	0.9701	2
Michigan St.	0.9678	3	7.52	5	0.9538	6
Xavier	0.9639	4	7.73	3	0.9211	13
Cincinnati	0.9557	5	5.36	11	0.9580	4
Michigan	0.9555	6	6.60	9	0.9271	11
Purdue	0.9537	7	6.89	7	0.9564	5
Kansas	0.9525	8	7.55	4	0.9397	8
Duke	0.9510	9	6.82	8	0.9646	3
Gonzaga	0.9487	10	4.47	12	0.9369	9
North Carolina	0.9473	11	6.93	6	0.9436	7
Tennessee	0.9454	12	6.37	10	0.9169	14
Clemson	0.9252	13	4.00	15	0.9010	19
Texas Tech	0.9247	14	4.33	14	0.9255	12
Ohio St.	0.9236	15	3.90	17	0.9088	16
West Virginia	0.9235	16	4.45	13	0.9300	10
Auburn	0.9227	17	3.91	16	0.8989	21
Houston	0.9220	18	3.17	21	0.9027	18
Wichita St.	0.9194	19	3.35	19	0.9127	15
Arizona	0.9137	20	3.50	18	0.8995	20
Kentucky	0.9081	21	3.35	20	0.9037	17
Miami FL	0.9056	22	2.64	22	0.8638	35
Rhode Island	0.9016	23	2.04	25	0.8508	39
Kansas St.	0.8951	24	2.26	24	0.8425	44
Arkansas	0.8928	25	2.37	23	0.8577	38
Nevada	0.8924	26	1.99	26	0.8679	34
TCU	0.8872	27	1.89	27	0.8941	22
Virginia Tech	0.8843	28	1.47	30	0.8709	30
Seton Hall	0.8833	29	1.61	28	0.8760	26
Loyola Chicago	0.8819	30	1.17	33	0.8168	54
St. Bonaventure	0.8818	31	1.34	32	0.7895	60
Nebraska	0.8812	32	1.36	31	0.7987	57
Texas A&M	0.8810	33	1.56	29	0.8708	31
Saint Mary’s	0.8798	34	1.01	36	0.8705	32
New Mexico St.	0.8785	35	0.94	38	0.7918	59
Creighton	0.8758	36	1.13	34	0.8873	24
Florida	0.8727	37	1.12	35	0.8917	23
Providence	0.8705	38	0.99	37	0.7964	58
Florida St.	0.8703	39	0.82	42	0.8614	37
North Carolina St.	0.8702	40	0.84	41	0.8348	47
Oklahoma	0.8692	41	0.89	39	0.8465	42
Texas	0.8676	42	0.84	40	0.8614	36
Butler	0.8673	43	0.79	43	0.8809	25
Louisville	0.8629	44	0.50	44	0.8756	27
South Dakota St.	0.8602	45	0.37	45	0.7387	82
Middle Tennessee	0.8567	46	0.29	46	0.8166	55
Marquette	0.8566	47	0.28	47	0.8210	52
Oklahoma St.	0.8507	48	0.01	48	0.8197	53
Missouri	0.8461	49	-0.18	50	0.8442	43
UCLA	0.8453	50	-0.17	49	0.8282	49
Baylor	0.8450	51	-0.23	51	0.8696	33
Mississippi St.	0.8436	52	-0.24	52	0.7870	61
Syracuse	0.8393	53	-0.45	53	0.8278	50
USC	0.8375	54	-0.52	54	0.8478	41
Notre Dame	0.8352	55	-0.60	55	0.8714	29
Penn St.	0.8272	56	-0.91	59	0.8728	28
Alabama	0.8265	57	-1.19	62	0.8288	48
Boise St.	0.8250	58	-0.79	58	0.8078	56
Murray St.	0.8223	59	-0.61	56	0.7727	70
Louisiana Lafayette	0.8215	60	-0.72	57	0.7804	68
Maryland	0.8206	61	-1.10	61	0.8499	40
Georgia	0.8160	62	-1.57	65	0.7851	64
Utah	0.8113	63	-1.42	63	0.7820	66
Vermont	0.8099	64	-1.08	60	0.7622	75
Arizona St.	0.8069	65	-1.58	66	0.8389	46
Boston College	0.7986	66	-1.98	72	0.7611	77
San Diego St.	0.7927	67	-1.92	70	0.8261	51
Old Dominion	0.7925	68	-1.65	67	0.7801	69
Buffalo	0.7907	69	-1.73	68	0.7528	79
Western Kentucky	0.7901	70	-1.97	71	0.7818	67
LSU	0.7878	71	-2.36	76	0.7870	62
BYU	0.7877	72	-1.99	73	0.7674	72
UNC Greensboro	0.7868	73	-1.44	64	0.7120	90
Oregon	0.7793	74	-2.63	78	0.7834	65
Montana	0.7758	75	-1.84	69	0.6992	94
Washington	0.7698	76	-2.80	79	0.6718	105
Temple	0.7692	77	-3.05	81	0.7257	85
College of Charleston	0.7600	78	-2.08	74	0.6265	117
South Carolina	0.7572	79	-3.62	90	0.7521	80
St. John’s	0.7563	80	-3.65	91	0.7615	76
Indiana	0.7544	81	-3.16	85	0.7702	71
Davidson	0.7426	82	-3.12	84	0.8392	45
South Dakota	0.7375	83	-2.46	77	0.7642	74
Stephen F. Austin	0.7357	84	-2.10	75	0.6383	114
Wisconsin	0.7319	85	-4.19	97	0.7857	63
Marshall	0.7300	86	-3.32	87	0.6159	121
UCF	0.7296	87	-3.67	92	0.6750	104
Bucknell	0.7293	88	-3.03	80	0.7096	92
Belmont	0.7271	89	-3.12	83	0.7261	84
Stanford	0.7266	90	-4.37	101	0.7156	88
East Tennessee St.	0.7261	91	-3.05	82	0.6993	93
Colorado	0.7173	92	-4.63	106	0.6313	116
Northeastern	0.7168	93	-3.90	93	0.6859	97
Memphis	0.7136	94	-4.13	96	0.5376	153
Wyoming	0.7128	95	-4.39	102	0.6005	128
Iowa St.	0.7060	96	-4.69	108	0.6990	95
Rider	0.7034	97	-3.56	89	0.5645	136
Northwestern	0.7025	98	-4.88	110	0.7574	78
Penn	0.6978	99	-3.47	88	0.6326	115
Fresno St.	0.6975	100	-4.23	98	0.7449	81
Tulsa	0.6915	101	-4.28	99	0.6618	107
Wright St.	0.6869	102	-3.94	94	0.5744	133
Lipscomb	0.6817	103	-3.23	86	0.4912	173
Georgetown	0.6792	104	-4.44	103	0.6811	99
Minnesota	0.6682	105	-5.36	113	0.6771	101
Furman	0.6666	106	-3.97	95	0.7107	91
Toledo	0.6631	107	-5.07	112	0.6193	120
Illinois St.	0.6616	108	-6.60	137	0.5393	151
UNLV	0.6615	109	-5.57	116	0.6763	102
UC Davis	0.6588	110	-4.84	109	0.5524	145
UC Santa Barbara	0.6572	111	-4.35	100	0.5737	134
Vanderbilt	0.6572	112	-6.54	133	0.7265	83
Southern Illinois	0.6548	113	-5.85	119	0.5484	147
Utah Valley	0.6452	114	-4.53	104	0.6848	98
Iowa	0.6438	115	-6.58	135	0.7244	86
Georgia St.	0.6419	116	-5.48	115	0.6637	106
Bradley	0.6407	117	-6.28	128	0.5760	132
New Mexico	0.6385	118	-6.58	136	0.6588	109
UMBC	0.6361	119	-4.56	105	0.4481	184
UT Arlington	0.6350	120	-5.71	117	0.6221	119
Northern Kentucky	0.6348	121	-4.65	107	0.7138	89
SMU	0.6177	122	-6.07	126	0.7662	73
Illinois	0.6126	123	-6.99	146	0.6970	96
Idaho	0.6125	124	-5.03	111	0.5590	141
William & Mary	0.6119	125	-6.06	124	0.5163	164
Georgia Tech	0.6116	126	-6.65	140	0.6432	111
VCU	0.6074	127	-7.16	149	0.6053	125
Hofstra	0.6066	128	-6.06	125	0.5372	154
Connecticut	0.6056	129	-6.47	130	0.5203	160
Mississippi	0.6056	130	-7.61	156	0.6755	103
San Diego	0.6054	131	-5.93	122	0.5880	129
Cal St. Fullerton	0.6027	132	-5.87	120	0.4905	175
Oregon St.	0.6022	133	-7.30	153	0.6780	100
Wofford	0.6018	134	-5.90	121	0.5311	156
Harvard	0.5976	135	-6.37	129	0.5717	135
Georgia Southern	0.5958	136	-6.84	144	0.5599	140
Northern Colorado	0.5939	137	-6.68	141	0.6049	126
Canisius	0.5874	138	-6.54	132	0.5832	130
Iona	0.5828	139	-7.30	152	0.6077	124
Northern Iowa	0.5794	140	-7.70	160	0.6138	122
Albany	0.5763	141	-5.93	123	0.5544	143
DePaul	0.5704	142	-7.46	154	0.6614	108
UAB	0.5699	143	-6.75	143	0.6407	112
UNC Asheville	0.5689	144	-6.14	127	0.4425	185
Wake Forest	0.5652	145	-8.01	164	0.7212	87
Eastern Washington	0.5651	146	-7.75	161	0.5429	150
Utah St.	0.5647	147	-8.38	171	0.5599	139
Ball St.	0.5644	148	-7.11	148	0.4915	172
Saint Louis	0.5635	149	-8.23	168	0.5615	137
Radford	0.5607	150	-6.48	131	0.4678	180
San Francisco	0.5604	151	-7.20	150	0.5388	152
Missouri St.	0.5596	152	-8.65	178	0.6249	118
Grand Canyon	0.5572	153	-5.81	118	0.6485	110
Eastern Michigan	0.5562	154	-7.01	147	0.5312	155
Rutgers	0.5544	155	-7.24	151	0.6024	127
Drake	0.5542	156	-8.79	180	0.4952	170
Saint Joseph’s	0.5513	157	-8.45	174	0.6398	113
Portland St.	0.5452	158	-7.51	155	0.5076	165
Wagner	0.5442	159	-5.39	114	0.4640	182
Southeastern Louisiana	0.5410	160	-6.54	134	0.4031	200
Weber St.	0.5399	161	-6.68	142	0.5190	162
Jacksonville St.	0.5363	162	-6.95	145	0.5545	142
Evansville	0.5358	163	-8.40	172	0.5283	159
Niagara	0.5256	164	-8.12	165	0.4039	198
UTSA	0.5144	165	-7.96	163	0.4539	183
Dayton	0.5092	166	-9.71	190	0.5294	157
UC Irvine	0.5070	167	-9.50	184	0.5508	146
Nicholls St.	0.5052	168	-6.60	138	0.4331	189
Tennessee Tech	0.4992	169	-8.16	166	0.3622	221
Yale	0.4979	170	-8.43	173	0.4656	181
Florida Gulf Coast	0.4932	171	-6.62	139	0.6133	123
Austin Peay	0.4931	172	-7.86	162	0.4030	201
George Mason	0.4907	173	-9.96	195	0.3806	211
Washington St.	0.4895	174	-10.12	198	0.4386	188
Oakland	0.4885	175	-8.24	169	0.5074	166
Towson	0.4874	176	-9.26	182	0.5600	138
Seattle	0.4824	177	-7.67	158	0.4097	196
Mercer	0.4818	178	-8.24	170	0.5819	131
George Washington	0.4801	179	-10.03	197	0.4390	187
Tulane	0.4692	180	-8.63	177	0.5073	167
Valparaiso	0.4635	181	-10.37	203	0.5466	148
Winthrop	0.4619	182	-7.66	157	0.5289	158
Fort Wayne	0.4565	183	-8.56	175	0.5189	163
Western Michigan	0.4552	184	-9.97	196	0.4417	186
Colgate	0.4498	185	-8.60	176	0.4109	195
Navy	0.4480	186	-8.17	167	0.3696	216
Louisiana Tech	0.4467	187	-9.75	191	0.5439	149
La Salle	0.4467	188	-11.16	222	0.5529	144
Hartford	0.4445	189	-9.10	181	0.3394	230
Richmond	0.4424	190	-11.51	229	0.4918	171
Kent St.	0.4401	191	-11.04	215	0.3967	205
Pacific	0.4399	192	-10.38	204	0.4724	179
Hawaii	0.4359	193	-8.72	179	0.3870	208
Central Michigan	0.4319	194	-9.61	187	0.4844	177
Miami OH	0.4314	195	-11.13	221	0.4211	193
Long Beach St.	0.4286	196	-10.64	208	0.3924	206
Indiana St.	0.4273	197	-11.10	219	0.5193	161
Fairfield	0.4202	198	-10.47	206	0.3896	207
Troy	0.4198	199	-10.83	210	0.4906	174
Southern Miss	0.4104	200	-10.69	209	0.3322	232
Liberty	0.4097	201	-9.83	192	0.4998	168
Denver	0.4062	202	-9.88	193	0.3684	218
Bowling Green	0.4023	203	-11.25	223	0.3245	234
St. Francis PA	0.4015	204	-7.67	159	0.4037	199
Sam Houston St.	0.3938	205	-9.56	185	0.3618	223
Louisiana Monroe	0.3916	206	-9.64	188	0.3608	224
North Dakota St.	0.3903	207	-10.47	207	0.4954	169
Princeton	0.3893	208	-10.33	202	0.4799	178
Massachusetts	0.3815	209	-12.94	256	0.4213	192
Illinois Chicago	0.3814	210	-10.26	200	0.4022	202
Tennessee St.	0.3769	211	-9.60	186	0.3791	213
Ohio	0.3763	212	-11.42	226	0.4245	191
Lehigh	0.3732	213	-9.65	189	0.3620	222
North Texas	0.3721	214	-11.01	214	0.4127	194
Elon	0.3676	215	-12.08	242	0.3302	233
Appalachian St.	0.3621	216	-12.62	252	0.3992	203
Duquesne	0.3607	217	-11.07	217	0.4314	190
Pittsburgh	0.3595	218	-11.06	216	0.3586	226
Central Arkansas	0.3589	219	-10.90	212	0.3760	215
Colorado St.	0.3581	220	-12.34	248	0.3434	229
Lamar	0.3562	221	-9.94	194	0.4071	197
Akron	0.3553	222	-12.57	251	0.3006	248
Manhattan	0.3534	223	-12.28	243	0.3824	209
Air Force	0.3533	224	-12.28	244	0.3050	244
Robert Morris	0.3501	225	-11.95	239	0.2999	249
Boston University	0.3500	226	-11.58	232	0.3205	236
Texas St.	0.3445	227	-13.16	259	0.3598	225
UT Rio Grande Valley	0.3410	228	-11.28	224	0.2617	269
Cornell	0.3405	229	-11.10	220	0.2765	263
Monmouth	0.3367	230	-13.55	269	0.4869	176
Saint Peter’s	0.3356	231	-12.99	258	0.3802	212
Mount St. Mary’s	0.3333	232	-10.22	199	0.3154	239
Milwaukee	0.3324	233	-12.28	245	0.3777	214
Western Carolina	0.3285	234	-11.64	233	0.1992	305
Coastal Carolina	0.3275	235	-13.23	262	0.3988	204
Stony Brook	0.3221	236	-12.71	254	0.3695	217
Delaware	0.3216	237	-13.73	274	0.2967	253
Drexel	0.3213	238	-14.43	284	0.3019	246
South Alabama	0.3149	239	-12.71	253	0.3665	219
LIU Brooklyn	0.3073	240	-13.16	260	0.2946	255
Southern Utah	0.3058	241	-12.85	255	0.2435	278
Northern Illinois	0.3056	242	-13.58	271	0.3012	247
Grambling St.	0.3030	243	-10.30	201	0.1849	315
North Dakota	0.3027	244	-13.26	263	0.2876	258
Idaho St.	0.3021	245	-11.68	235	0.2969	252
North Florida	0.3018	246	-11.30	225	0.2255	289
Loyola Marymount	0.2984	247	-12.35	249	0.3340	231
Cal St. Bakersfield	0.2977	248	-11.56	231	0.3171	238
New Orleans	0.2961	249	-10.94	213	0.2646	267
Campbell	0.2847	250	-11.55	230	0.3660	220
Southeast Missouri St.	0.2847	251	-12.56	250	0.2714	264
Gardner Webb	0.2825	252	-12.05	241	0.2812	261
North Carolina A&T	0.2779	253	-10.45	205	0.1922	308
UNC Wilmington	0.2740	254	-14.87	292	0.3199	237
Abilene Christian	0.2691	255	-11.66	234	0.2683	266
Oral Roberts	0.2683	256	-13.49	267	0.3053	243
Quinnipiac	0.2674	257	-16.18	307	0.2387	282
FIU	0.2660	258	-13.75	275	0.2956	254
Charleston Southern	0.2657	259	-11.49	228	0.3072	242
California	0.2644	260	-14.35	281	0.3217	235
Central Connecticut	0.2624	261	-13.91	278	0.1910	310
Holy Cross	0.2605	262	-15.00	294	0.2448	276
Montana St.	0.2587	263	-14.42	283	0.2534	274
Brown	0.2585	264	-11.72	238	0.2780	262
Florida Atlantic	0.2572	265	-13.35	266	0.3032	245
Army	0.2562	266	-13.60	272	0.3080	241
Eastern Illinois	0.2541	267	-13.68	273	0.2939	256
Savannah St.	0.2471	268	-9.43	183	0.1690	320
Fordham	0.2470	269	-15.03	296	0.2361	283
High Point	0.2461	270	-12.33	247	0.3441	228
Western Illinois	0.2461	271	-11.47	227	0.2254	290
UTEP	0.2448	272	-14.52	286	0.2988	250
Fairleigh Dickinson	0.2426	273	-13.18	261	0.2632	268
NJIT	0.2406	274	-11.71	237	0.2974	251
Prairie View A&M	0.2364	275	-12.03	240	0.2483	275
Hampton	0.2364	276	-11.08	218	0.2873	259
Texas Southern	0.2322	277	-10.90	211	0.3140	240
James Madison	0.2318	278	-16.64	314	0.3443	227
Arkansas St.	0.2278	279	-15.43	299	0.2589	271
Santa Clara	0.2268	280	-13.53	268	0.2565	273
South Florida	0.2242	281	-14.77	290	0.2396	281
Bethune Cookman	0.2214	282	-11.68	236	0.2061	301
East Carolina	0.2206	283	-13.29	264	0.2041	302
St. Francis NY	0.2188	284	-14.52	285	0.1906	311
IUPUI	0.2185	285	-13.80	276	0.2337	286
Cleveland St.	0.2155	286	-16.92	317	0.2075	299
UMass Lowell	0.2133	287	-14.21	280	0.2300	287
Portland	0.2098	288	-14.70	288	0.2608	270
Nebraska Omaha	0.2088	289	-14.37	282	0.2569	272
Eastern Kentucky	0.2080	290	-14.69	287	0.2274	288
Green Bay	0.2057	291	-14.76	289	0.2877	257
North Carolina Central	0.2043	292	-12.32	246	0.2175	293
SIU Edwardsville	0.2010	293	-15.50	300	0.1736	319
Jacksonville	0.1988	294	-13.57	270	0.1630	324
UMKC	0.1859	295	-15.56	302	0.2157	295
Cal Poly	0.1844	296	-17.06	320	0.1664	323
McNeese St.	0.1838	297	-12.95	257	0.2005	303
The Citadel	0.1811	298	-14.91	293	0.1864	314
Columbia	0.1783	299	-13.86	277	0.3820	210
UC Riverside	0.1781	300	-16.72	316	0.2435	277
Lafayette	0.1701	301	-16.92	318	0.2421	279
Siena	0.1696	302	-18.34	328	0.2200	292
Arkansas Pine Bluff	0.1654	303	-16.43	312	0.1307	330
Samford	0.1617	304	-15.30	297	0.2405	280
Kennesaw St.	0.1598	305	-14.80	291	0.1999	304
Binghamton	0.1580	306	-16.17	306	0.2235	291
Loyola MD	0.1564	307	-17.39	322	0.1899	312
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	0.1556	308	-14.19	279	0.1915	309
Chattanooga	0.1551	309	-17.62	323	0.2171	294
Morehead St.	0.1539	310	-15.00	295	0.2346	285
Tennessee Martin	0.1538	311	-16.31	310	0.2157	296
Dartmouth	0.1523	312	-15.52	301	0.2360	284
New Hampshire	0.1509	313	-16.18	308	0.2835	260
Southern	0.1461	314	-13.34	265	0.1553	325
VMI	0.1441	315	-15.73	303	0.1200	333
Stetson	0.1422	316	-16.40	311	0.1783	318
Presbyterian	0.1417	317	-16.23	309	0.1252	331
Sacred Heart	0.1348	318	-17.00	319	0.1988	306
Youngstown St.	0.1332	319	-18.34	329	0.1681	322
Charlotte	0.1322	320	-17.63	324	0.1865	313
Detroit	0.1283	321	-18.29	327	0.1848	316
Norfolk St.	0.1264	322	-15.33	298	0.1813	317
Sacramento St.	0.1209	323	-19.13	333	0.2156	297
Little Rock	0.1203	324	-19.39	337	0.2123	298
Morgan St.	0.1201	325	-15.88	304	0.1544	326
Pepperdine	0.1188	326	-18.07	325	0.2700	265
Marist	0.1170	327	-20.18	341	0.1689	321
Rice	0.1120	328	-18.10	326	0.1987	307
Jackson St.	0.1075	329	-16.11	305	0.1033	337
San Jose St.	0.1069	330	-18.98	332	0.2067	300
American	0.0908	331	-19.13	334	0.1484	327
South Carolina St.	0.0842	332	-17.17	321	0.0831	343
Howard	0.0817	333	-18.88	331	0.1187	334
Maine	0.0804	334	-20.31	342	0.1251	332
Florida A&M	0.0802	335	-19.26	336	0.0862	342
Cal St. Northridge	0.0776	336	-19.83	340	0.1406	328
Alabama St.	0.0771	337	-18.37	330	0.0928	340
Longwood	0.0731	338	-21.32	347	0.0816	344
Northern Arizona	0.0713	339	-20.79	345	0.1149	335
Alcorn St.	0.0696	340	-16.51	313	0.1028	338
USC Upstate	0.0518	341	-19.82	339	0.1135	336
Maryland Eastern Shore	0.0470	342	-19.48	338	0.0427	349
Incarnate Word	0.0460	343	-16.71	315	0.0998	339
Houston Baptist	0.0455	344	-19.17	335	0.1366	329
Coppin St.	0.0445	345	-21.21	346	0.0606	347
Bryant	0.0442	346	-23.04	349	0.0923	341
Mississippi Valley St.	0.0310	347	-22.81	348	0.0578	348
Chicago St.	0.0259	348	-20.74	344	0.0636	346
Alabama A&M	0.0227	349	-23.37	350	0.0372	351
Delaware St.	0.0147	350	-24.30	351	0.0425	350
Northwestern St.	0.0023	351	-20.40	343	0.0674	345

 

 

 

 

WAB 3/10: Bid Thieves?

The definition of a bid thief has two parts. First, a bid thief needs to be from a conference with a team or number of teams that can earn at-large bids. Second, this team needs to not be among that group. When this situation occurs, the term used is “Bid Thief”.

I dislike that term. They aren’t stealing a bid. They are earning a bid. So long as conference tournaments provide automatic entry into the NCAA tournament, we will continue to see such teams earn bids. Thus is the nature of college basketball.

More interesting (to me anyway) is when teams that are locks don’t play up to their potential against bubble-teams in conference tournaments. For example, Auburn’s second half performance against Alabama yesterday wasn’t exactly representative of how they have played for much of the season. If there is real bid theft, that’s where incentives exist for it to take place.

Full WAB Tables available here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Tsi90fKMaqW26tOUP6theXc3DlMpjGu6u2JnR3mXXkY/edit#gid=0

(I ran Matchup Zone, Massey, and Dolphin yesterday. It’s on the second page)

 

School	Implied Pythag	Rank Implied Pythag	WAB Avg	Rank WAB	Pythag	Rank Pythag
Virginia	0.9882	1	10.60	1	0.9705	1
Villanova	0.9714	2	8.97	2	0.9701	2
Michigan St.	0.9678	3	7.47	4	0.9537	6
Xavier	0.9639	4	7.67	3	0.9210	13
Michigan	0.9554	5	6.54	9	0.9269	11
Cincinnati	0.9550	6	5.13	11	0.9592	4
Purdue	0.9534	7	6.81	6	0.9559	5
Duke	0.9510	8	6.75	8	0.9647	3
North Carolina	0.9501	9	6.98	5	0.9445	7
Kansas	0.9485	10	6.77	7	0.9364	9
Gonzaga	0.9485	11	4.41	13	0.9371	8
Tennessee	0.9423	12	5.78	10	0.9112	15
Wichita St.	0.9292	13	3.69	18	0.9144	14
West Virginia	0.9285	14	4.62	12	0.9327	10
Clemson	0.9251	15	3.94	15	0.9008	18
Texas Tech	0.9247	16	4.27	14	0.9258	12
Ohio St.	0.9237	17	3.85	17	0.9083	16
Auburn	0.9233	18	3.90	16	0.8994	19
Houston	0.9125	19	2.50	23	0.9016	17
Arizona	0.9079	20	2.96	19	0.8941	21
Miami FL	0.9052	21	2.56	22	0.8629	36
Kentucky	0.9029	22	2.82	20	0.8960	20
Arkansas	0.8995	23	2.63	21	0.8654	35
Rhode Island	0.8981	24	1.78	28	0.8533	40
St. Bonaventure	0.8954	25	1.81	27	0.7982	58
Kansas St.	0.8947	26	2.19	24	0.8416	44
Nevada	0.8925	27	1.95	25	0.8678	34
TCU	0.8872	28	1.83	26	0.8937	22
Providence	0.8865	29	1.69	29	0.7940	59
Virginia Tech	0.8835	30	1.39	31	0.8703	31
Loyola Chicago	0.8819	31	1.13	33	0.8167	55
Texas A&M	0.8815	32	1.53	30	0.8714	29
Nebraska	0.8809	33	1.30	32	0.7985	57
Saint Mary’s	0.8791	34	0.95	37	0.8693	32
Creighton	0.8757	35	1.08	34	0.8867	24
Seton Hall	0.8732	36	0.99	36	0.8769	26
Florida	0.8730	37	1.08	35	0.8916	23
New Mexico St.	0.8727	38	0.69	43	0.7826	67
Oklahoma	0.8701	39	0.88	38	0.8458	42
Florida St.	0.8699	40	0.75	41	0.8608	38
North Carolina St.	0.8693	41	0.76	40	0.8341	47
Texas	0.8678	42	0.80	39	0.8613	37
Butler	0.8671	43	0.73	42	0.8814	25
Louisville	0.8622	44	0.42	44	0.8743	27
South Dakota St.	0.8600	45	0.33	45	0.7399	82
Middle Tennessee	0.8570	46	0.26	46	0.8171	54
Marquette	0.8568	47	0.24	47	0.8210	52
Oklahoma St.	0.8506	48	-0.05	49	0.8202	53
Louisiana Lafayette	0.8486	49	0.01	48	0.7876	60
Missouri	0.8461	50	-0.24	53	0.8453	43
USC	0.8452	51	-0.22	51	0.8536	39
UCLA	0.8451	52	-0.23	52	0.8281	49
Baylor	0.8451	53	-0.28	54	0.8693	33
Mississippi St.	0.8437	54	-0.29	55	0.7869	61
Vermont	0.8421	55	-0.20	50	0.7744	70
Syracuse	0.8390	56	-0.51	56	0.8276	50
Notre Dame	0.8351	57	-0.65	58	0.8712	30
Alabama	0.8330	58	-0.91	60	0.8399	45
Penn St.	0.8268	59	-0.98	61	0.8732	28
Boise St.	0.8249	60	-0.83	59	0.8077	56
Murray St.	0.8224	61	-0.64	57	0.7725	71
Maryland	0.8208	62	-1.14	62	0.8502	41
Georgia	0.8149	63	-1.68	67	0.7830	66
Western Kentucky	0.8120	64	-1.25	63	0.7848	64
Utah	0.8113	65	-1.47	64	0.7819	68
Arizona St.	0.8066	66	-1.65	66	0.8380	46
Boston College	0.7981	67	-2.05	72	0.7603	77
Old Dominion	0.7925	68	-1.69	68	0.7791	69
LSU	0.7885	69	-2.39	76	0.7859	63
BYU	0.7879	70	-2.02	70	0.7662	73
UNC Greensboro	0.7862	71	-1.49	65	0.7111	90
San Diego St.	0.7813	72	-2.22	74	0.8259	51
Buffalo	0.7808	73	-1.97	69	0.7469	80
Oregon	0.7794	74	-2.68	78	0.7833	65
Washington	0.7691	75	-2.87	79	0.6707	105
Temple	0.7687	76	-3.11	81	0.7268	83
Montana	0.7656	77	-2.04	71	0.6859	97
College of Charleston	0.7603	78	-2.10	73	0.6274	116
South Carolina	0.7569	79	-3.68	90	0.7519	79
St. John’s	0.7566	80	-3.70	91	0.7614	76
Indiana	0.7542	81	-3.22	84	0.7701	72
South Dakota	0.7381	82	-2.48	77	0.7642	74
Wisconsin	0.7322	83	-4.24	97	0.7866	62
Bucknell	0.7306	84	-3.04	80	0.7105	91
UCF	0.7303	85	-3.68	89	0.6773	102
Belmont	0.7272	86	-3.15	83	0.7261	85
Stanford	0.7259	87	-4.45	102	0.7160	88
East Tennessee St.	0.7251	88	-3.11	82	0.6983	94
Stephen F. Austin	0.7248	89	-2.23	75	0.6421	112
Davidson	0.7206	90	-3.54	86	0.8325	48
Memphis	0.7182	91	-3.94	94	0.5306	156
Northeastern	0.7177	92	-3.91	93	0.6860	96
Colorado	0.7167	93	-4.71	107	0.6312	115
Wyoming	0.7135	94	-4.41	101	0.6000	128
Marshall	0.7062	95	-3.74	92	0.6086	123
Iowa St.	0.7050	96	-4.77	108	0.6988	93
Rider	0.7049	97	-3.57	88	0.5649	137
Northwestern	0.7026	98	-4.93	110	0.7573	78
Fresno St.	0.6976	99	-4.26	98	0.7456	81
Penn	0.6920	100	-3.56	87	0.6137	122
Tulsa	0.6912	101	-4.32	99	0.6609	107
Wright St.	0.6869	102	-3.97	95	0.5759	133
Lipscomb	0.6817	103	-3.25	85	0.4928	173
Georgetown	0.6791	104	-4.49	103	0.6819	99
Toledo	0.6774	105	-4.49	104	0.6258	118
Minnesota	0.6685	106	-5.40	114	0.6785	101
Furman	0.6657	107	-4.02	96	0.7097	92
Illinois St.	0.6613	108	-6.65	140	0.5394	152
UNLV	0.6611	109	-5.63	116	0.6763	103
UC Davis	0.6575	110	-4.88	109	0.5512	147
UC Santa Barbara	0.6574	111	-4.37	100	0.5751	134
Vanderbilt	0.6565	112	-6.64	139	0.7263	84
Southern Illinois	0.6548	113	-5.90	119	0.5476	148
New Mexico	0.6475	114	-6.12	128	0.6581	110
Iowa	0.6441	115	-6.63	137	0.7256	86
Utah Valley	0.6434	116	-4.60	105	0.6844	98
Bradley	0.6413	117	-6.31	131	0.5761	132
Northern Kentucky	0.6340	118	-4.68	106	0.7126	89
Georgia St.	0.6253	119	-5.70	117	0.6584	109
SMU	0.6180	120	-6.10	127	0.7641	75
Idaho	0.6136	121	-5.05	111	0.5584	141
Georgia Southern	0.6126	122	-6.15	129	0.5655	136
William & Mary	0.6122	123	-6.09	124	0.5150	164
Illinois	0.6122	124	-7.05	147	0.6955	95
Georgia Tech	0.6111	125	-6.74	142	0.6431	111
VCU	0.6077	126	-7.20	150	0.6054	125
UT Arlington	0.6075	127	-6.10	126	0.6139	120
Hofstra	0.6071	128	-6.09	125	0.5373	153
Mississippi	0.6066	129	-7.67	158	0.6741	104
Connecticut	0.6058	130	-6.51	133	0.5229	160
San Diego	0.6052	131	-5.97	122	0.5880	129
Oregon St.	0.6022	132	-7.35	154	0.6794	100
Wofford	0.6006	133	-5.95	121	0.5302	158
UMBC	0.5964	134	-5.09	112	0.4277	190
Northern Colorado	0.5928	135	-6.74	143	0.6032	126
Harvard	0.5892	136	-6.49	132	0.5565	142
Canisius	0.5881	137	-6.57	135	0.5842	130
Iona	0.5838	138	-7.32	153	0.6080	124
Cal St. Fullerton	0.5829	139	-6.06	123	0.4677	181
Eastern Washington	0.5789	140	-7.10	148	0.5564	143
Northern Iowa	0.5787	141	-7.75	161	0.6138	121
Albany	0.5766	142	-5.94	120	0.5559	144
DePaul	0.5701	143	-7.51	155	0.6619	106
Grand Canyon	0.5698	144	-5.27	113	0.6587	108
UNC Asheville	0.5694	145	-6.16	130	0.4410	185
UAB	0.5691	146	-6.79	144	0.6408	113
Utah St.	0.5651	147	-8.42	173	0.5601	139
Wake Forest	0.5645	148	-8.09	166	0.7190	87
Ball St.	0.5645	149	-7.14	149	0.4931	172
Saint Louis	0.5637	150	-8.28	172	0.5614	138
Southeastern Louisiana	0.5619	151	-5.79	118	0.4002	202
San Francisco	0.5606	152	-7.24	151	0.5395	151
Missouri St.	0.5600	153	-8.69	178	0.6259	117
Saint Joseph’s	0.5580	154	-8.00	164	0.6350	114
Radford	0.5575	155	-6.54	134	0.4679	180
Eastern Michigan	0.5568	156	-7.04	146	0.5313	154
Rutgers	0.5545	157	-7.29	152	0.6015	127
Drake	0.5541	158	-8.83	181	0.4962	169
Portland St.	0.5454	159	-7.54	156	0.5064	167
Wagner	0.5450	160	-5.41	115	0.4640	182
Weber St.	0.5395	161	-6.72	141	0.5185	161
Jacksonville St.	0.5362	162	-6.99	145	0.5544	145
Evansville	0.5356	163	-8.44	174	0.5268	159
Niagara	0.5262	164	-8.14	167	0.4049	198
UC Irvine	0.5260	165	-8.74	179	0.5708	135
UTSA	0.5138	166	-8.00	165	0.4524	183
Yale	0.5087	167	-7.84	162	0.4879	175
Dayton	0.5083	168	-9.77	191	0.5308	155
Nicholls St.	0.5050	169	-6.62	136	0.4331	188
Tennessee Tech	0.4994	170	-8.20	168	0.3623	223
Florida Gulf Coast	0.4940	171	-6.64	138	0.6155	119
Austin Peay	0.4931	172	-7.89	163	0.4032	200
George Mason	0.4905	173	-10.01	196	0.3807	211
Washington St.	0.4885	174	-10.19	199	0.4381	187
Oakland	0.4882	175	-8.27	170	0.5064	166
Towson	0.4864	176	-9.31	183	0.5599	140
Seattle	0.4828	177	-7.72	160	0.4103	196
Mercer	0.4815	178	-8.28	171	0.5810	131
George Washington	0.4796	179	-10.08	197	0.4381	186
Tulane	0.4685	180	-8.68	177	0.5064	165
Winthrop	0.4660	181	-7.64	157	0.5304	157
Valparaiso	0.4633	182	-10.41	205	0.5467	149
Fort Wayne	0.4567	183	-8.60	175	0.5165	163
Western Michigan	0.4565	184	-10.01	195	0.4417	184
Colgate	0.4500	185	-8.62	176	0.4126	195
Navy	0.4483	186	-8.21	169	0.3695	218
Louisiana Tech	0.4470	187	-9.77	190	0.5441	150
La Salle	0.4466	188	-11.23	222	0.5513	146
Hartford	0.4433	189	-9.13	182	0.3394	230
Richmond	0.4432	190	-11.53	229	0.4931	171
Kent St.	0.4400	191	-11.09	218	0.3962	205
Pacific	0.4396	192	-10.43	206	0.4716	179
Hawaii	0.4360	193	-8.75	180	0.3858	208
Central Michigan	0.4318	194	-9.64	187	0.4844	177
Miami OH	0.4315	195	-11.17	221	0.4211	193
Long Beach St.	0.4273	196	-10.69	210	0.3923	206
Indiana St.	0.4272	197	-11.14	220	0.5179	162
Troy	0.4202	198	-10.86	212	0.4892	174
Fairfield	0.4199	199	-10.51	209	0.3896	207
Southern Miss	0.4097	200	-10.74	211	0.3323	232
Liberty	0.4095	201	-9.88	192	0.5012	168
Denver	0.4070	202	-9.90	193	0.3696	217
St. Francis PA	0.4024	203	-7.69	159	0.4039	199
Bowling Green	0.4022	204	-11.29	223	0.3246	234
Sam Houston St.	0.3939	205	-9.58	185	0.3624	222
Louisiana Monroe	0.3918	206	-9.67	189	0.3619	224
North Dakota St.	0.3904	207	-10.51	208	0.4956	170
Princeton	0.3900	208	-10.37	204	0.4810	178
Massachusetts	0.3806	209	-13.01	257	0.4221	192
Illinois Chicago	0.3802	210	-10.32	202	0.4021	201
Tennessee St.	0.3772	211	-9.63	186	0.3782	213
Ohio	0.3764	212	-11.46	226	0.4231	191
Lehigh	0.3747	213	-9.66	188	0.3637	221
North Texas	0.3715	214	-11.06	216	0.4127	194
Elon	0.3677	215	-12.12	242	0.3312	233
Appalachian St.	0.3619	216	-12.67	252	0.3984	204
Duquesne	0.3617	217	-11.09	217	0.4317	189
Central Arkansas	0.3593	218	-10.93	213	0.3761	214
Pittsburgh	0.3587	219	-11.13	219	0.3598	225
Colorado St.	0.3579	220	-12.38	247	0.3433	228
Lamar	0.3564	221	-9.96	194	0.4072	197
Akron	0.3551	222	-12.62	251	0.3019	247
Air Force	0.3534	223	-12.32	245	0.3041	244
Cornell	0.3531	224	-10.34	203	0.2902	258
Manhattan	0.3531	225	-12.31	243	0.3825	209
Robert Morris	0.3510	226	-11.97	239	0.3014	248
Boston University	0.3504	227	-11.62	232	0.3193	236
Texas St.	0.3449	228	-13.17	259	0.3593	226
UT Rio Grande Valley	0.3424	229	-11.32	224	0.2620	269
Monmouth	0.3369	230	-13.60	270	0.4869	176
Saint Peter’s	0.3361	231	-13.02	258	0.3804	212
Mount St. Mary’s	0.3340	232	-10.24	200	0.3168	239
Milwaukee	0.3324	233	-12.31	244	0.3755	215
Coastal Carolina	0.3277	234	-13.24	262	0.4000	203
Western Carolina	0.3275	235	-11.69	234	0.1994	305
Delaware	0.3230	236	-13.77	274	0.2998	249
Stony Brook	0.3218	237	-12.72	253	0.3712	216
Drexel	0.3216	238	-14.46	283	0.3032	246
South Alabama	0.3152	239	-12.74	254	0.3670	219
LIU Brooklyn	0.3078	240	-13.18	260	0.2961	254
Southern Utah	0.3060	241	-12.89	255	0.2438	278
Northern Illinois	0.3052	242	-13.63	272	0.2992	251
Grambling St.	0.3035	243	-10.31	201	0.1858	313
North Florida	0.3027	244	-11.32	225	0.2266	289
Idaho St.	0.3023	245	-11.73	237	0.2951	256
North Dakota	0.3022	246	-13.33	263	0.2869	259
Cal St. Bakersfield	0.2986	247	-11.59	231	0.3185	238
Loyola Marymount	0.2971	248	-12.41	249	0.3327	231
New Orleans	0.2960	249	-10.96	215	0.2648	267
Campbell	0.2852	250	-11.56	230	0.3669	220
Southeast Missouri St.	0.2839	251	-12.59	250	0.2704	264
Gardner Webb	0.2836	252	-12.07	240	0.2815	262
UNC Wilmington	0.2743	253	-14.92	292	0.3193	237
North Carolina A&T	0.2730	254	-10.50	207	0.1902	312
Abilene Christian	0.2693	255	-11.67	233	0.2696	266
Oral Roberts	0.2681	256	-13.52	267	0.3055	243
Quinnipiac	0.2679	257	-16.19	308	0.2390	281
Charleston Southern	0.2660	258	-11.52	228	0.3080	241
FIU	0.2659	259	-13.79	275	0.2954	255
California	0.2631	260	-14.41	281	0.3215	235
Central Connecticut	0.2628	261	-13.94	278	0.1912	309
Holy Cross	0.2605	262	-15.02	294	0.2449	276
Brown	0.2596	263	-11.76	238	0.2788	263
Montana St.	0.2582	264	-14.47	284	0.2528	274
Florida Atlantic	0.2569	265	-13.38	266	0.3035	245
Army	0.2562	266	-13.63	271	0.3075	242
Hampton	0.2549	267	-10.15	198	0.2995	250
Eastern Illinois	0.2540	268	-13.71	273	0.2946	257
Savannah St.	0.2475	269	-9.42	184	0.1693	321
High Point	0.2464	270	-12.36	246	0.3441	227
Fordham	0.2462	271	-15.08	296	0.2369	283
Western Illinois	0.2461	272	-11.50	227	0.2250	290
UTEP	0.2441	273	-14.59	286	0.2988	252
Fairleigh Dickinson	0.2431	274	-13.20	261	0.2641	268
NJIT	0.2416	275	-11.72	236	0.2977	253
Prairie View A&M	0.2364	276	-12.09	241	0.2477	275
James Madison	0.2320	277	-16.68	315	0.3431	229
Arkansas St.	0.2281	278	-15.45	299	0.2592	271
Santa Clara	0.2269	279	-13.56	269	0.2568	273
South Florida	0.2239	280	-14.82	291	0.2387	282
Bethune Cookman	0.2217	281	-11.69	235	0.2063	301
East Carolina	0.2201	282	-13.34	264	0.2057	302
Texas Southern	0.2200	283	-10.96	214	0.3080	240
St. Francis NY	0.2194	284	-14.53	285	0.1907	311
IUPUI	0.2185	285	-13.83	276	0.2328	286
Cleveland St.	0.2157	286	-16.95	319	0.2078	299
UMass Lowell	0.2130	287	-14.23	280	0.2295	287
Nebraska Omaha	0.2089	288	-14.42	282	0.2570	272
Portland	0.2088	289	-14.75	288	0.2608	270
Eastern Kentucky	0.2084	290	-14.72	287	0.2283	288
Green Bay	0.2058	291	-14.79	289	0.2867	260
SIU Edwardsville	0.2011	292	-15.53	300	0.1738	319
Jacksonville	0.2008	293	-13.55	268	0.1641	324
North Carolina Central	0.1869	294	-12.40	248	0.2081	298
UMKC	0.1863	295	-15.61	303	0.2159	295
Cal Poly	0.1840	296	-17.11	321	0.1657	323
McNeese St.	0.1834	297	-12.97	256	0.2006	304
The Citadel	0.1800	298	-14.96	293	0.1850	315
Columbia	0.1796	299	-13.90	277	0.3821	210
Arkansas Pine Bluff	0.1727	300	-15.53	301	0.1347	330
Lafayette	0.1703	301	-16.94	318	0.2440	277
Siena	0.1700	302	-18.35	328	0.2210	292
Samford	0.1611	303	-15.34	298	0.2406	280
Kennesaw St.	0.1610	304	-14.81	290	0.2012	303
Binghamton	0.1579	305	-16.17	307	0.2238	291
UC Riverside	0.1579	306	-16.81	317	0.2425	279
Loyola MD	0.1566	307	-17.42	322	0.1910	310
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	0.1558	308	-14.22	279	0.1916	308
Chattanooga	0.1547	309	-17.67	323	0.2161	294
Morehead St.	0.1538	310	-15.04	295	0.2348	285
Tennessee Martin	0.1536	311	-16.36	312	0.2168	293
Dartmouth	0.1535	312	-15.55	302	0.2364	284
New Hampshire	0.1505	313	-16.20	310	0.2823	261
Southern	0.1464	314	-13.37	265	0.1550	325
VMI	0.1439	315	-15.79	304	0.1194	333
Stetson	0.1426	316	-16.42	313	0.1799	318
Presbyterian	0.1418	317	-16.27	311	0.1253	331
Sacred Heart	0.1351	318	-17.03	320	0.1990	306
Youngstown St.	0.1330	319	-18.38	329	0.1696	320
Charlotte	0.1319	320	-17.68	324	0.1858	314
Norfolk St.	0.1302	321	-15.31	297	0.1837	317
Detroit	0.1283	322	-18.33	327	0.1850	316
Sacramento St.	0.1206	323	-19.20	335	0.2158	296
Little Rock	0.1206	324	-19.41	338	0.2126	297
Morgan St.	0.1199	325	-15.89	305	0.1546	326
Pepperdine	0.1186	326	-18.12	325	0.2701	265
Marist	0.1172	327	-20.20	341	0.1691	322
Rice	0.1117	328	-18.14	326	0.1988	307
Jackson St.	0.1077	329	-16.12	306	0.1041	337
San Jose St.	0.1068	330	-19.03	333	0.2069	300
American	0.0909	331	-19.15	334	0.1486	327
South Carolina St.	0.0908	332	-16.20	309	0.0833	343
Cal St. Northridge	0.0856	333	-18.89	331	0.1410	328
Howard	0.0815	334	-18.92	332	0.1182	334
Maine	0.0802	335	-20.31	342	0.1250	332
Alabama St.	0.0773	336	-18.39	330	0.0927	340
Florida A&M	0.0744	337	-19.28	337	0.0864	342
Longwood	0.0735	338	-21.33	347	0.0826	344
Northern Arizona	0.0716	339	-20.83	345	0.1156	335
Alcorn St.	0.0699	340	-16.53	314	0.1034	338
USC Upstate	0.0520	341	-19.84	340	0.1133	336
Maryland Eastern Shore	0.0470	342	-19.50	339	0.0428	349
Incarnate Word	0.0460	343	-16.73	316	0.1002	339
Houston Baptist	0.0456	344	-19.20	336	0.1360	329
Coppin St.	0.0445	345	-21.24	346	0.0607	347
Bryant	0.0443	346	-23.06	349	0.0924	341
Mississippi Valley St.	0.0311	347	-22.83	348	0.0582	348
Chicago St.	0.0259	348	-20.82	344	0.0639	346
Alabama A&M	0.0228	349	-23.38	350	0.0371	351
Delaware St.	0.0147	350	-24.35	351	0.0423	350
Northwestern St.	0.0023	351	-20.43	343	0.0673	345

WAB 3/8: Chances!

Louisville takes on Virginia. Marquette faces Villanova. Oklahoma State gets a shot at Kansas. Notre Dame challenges Duke. Each of these four bubble teams has a chance to make a huge statement with a win today. Lord knows Syracuse failed at that yesterday.

Oklahoma and Arizona State both started the season on fire. However, Oklahoma’s collapse wasn’t nearly as disastrous as that of Arizona State. Oklahoma’s body of work is still quite reasonable. The same cannot be said of the Sun Devils.

Full WABs available here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Tsi90fKMaqW26tOUP6theXc3DlMpjGu6u2JnR3mXXkY/edit#gid=0

School	Implied Pythag	Rank Implied Pythag	WAB Avg	Rank WAB	Pythag	Rank Pythag
Virginia	0.9869	1	9.30	1	0.9694	1
Xavier	0.9710	2	7.74	3	0.9176	13
Villanova	0.9689	3	7.93	2	0.9671	2
Michigan St.	0.9677	4	7.41	4	0.9534	6
Michigan	0.9546	5	6.33	7	0.9262	12
Duke	0.9538	6	6.37	6	0.9642	3
Purdue	0.9532	7	6.64	5	0.9556	5
Cincinnati	0.9521	8	4.72	11	0.9589	4
Gonzaga	0.9478	9	4.29	13	0.9362	8
Kansas	0.9440	10	5.75	8	0.9317	9
North Carolina	0.9413	11	5.51	9	0.9389	7
Tennessee	0.9392	12	5.21	10	0.9116	15
Auburn	0.9340	13	4.35	12	0.9090	16
Wichita St.	0.9284	14	3.49	17	0.9154	14
Texas Tech	0.9268	15	3.96	14	0.9267	11
Clemson	0.9256	16	3.61	16	0.8996	18
Ohio St.	0.9231	17	3.71	15	0.9081	17
West Virginia	0.9167	18	3.32	18	0.9299	10
Miami FL	0.9120	19	2.74	19	0.8691	35
Houston	0.9084	20	2.14	22	0.8930	21
Nevada	0.8989	21	1.96	24	0.8784	27
TCU	0.8980	22	2.24	21	0.8954	20
Arizona	0.8975	23	2.12	23	0.8868	24
Kentucky	0.8968	24	2.24	20	0.8919	22
Rhode Island	0.8933	25	1.44	30	0.8526	39
Kansas St.	0.8922	26	1.78	26	0.8436	43
St. Bonaventure	0.8921	27	1.53	28	0.7989	56
Texas A&M	0.8901	28	1.82	25	0.8716	32
Arkansas	0.8876	29	1.68	27	0.8600	38
Creighton	0.8869	30	1.47	29	0.8900	23
Seton Hall	0.8840	31	1.35	32	0.8778	28
Virginia Tech	0.8836	32	1.30	33	0.8708	33
Loyola Chicago	0.8823	33	1.06	35	0.8167	53
Florida	0.8821	34	1.38	31	0.8961	19
Nebraska	0.8813	35	1.21	34	0.7986	57
Middle Tennessee	0.8812	36	1.05	36	0.8278	48
Saint Mary’s	0.8792	37	0.87	38	0.8692	34
Texas	0.8740	38	0.97	37	0.8617	36
Florida St.	0.8708	39	0.69	40	0.8607	37
Oklahoma	0.8695	40	0.73	39	0.8465	42
North Carolina St.	0.8686	41	0.62	41	0.8338	46
New Mexico St.	0.8674	42	0.44	43	0.7871	62
Louisville	0.8653	43	0.44	42	0.8789	26
Providence	0.8625	44	0.36	44	0.7770	67
Marquette	0.8598	45	0.26	45	0.8279	47
Butler	0.8589	46	0.21	47	0.8846	25
Missouri	0.8588	47	0.23	46	0.8476	41
South Dakota St.	0.8585	48	0.21	48	0.7377	80
Oklahoma St.	0.8568	49	0.11	49	0.8252	50
Baylor	0.8522	50	-0.09	50	0.8736	30
Boise St.	0.8484	51	-0.13	51	0.8134	54
UCLA	0.8462	52	-0.27	53	0.7202	86
Louisiana Lafayette	0.8451	53	-0.16	52	0.7776	66
Vermont	0.8419	54	-0.29	54	0.7743	69
Mississippi St.	0.8405	55	-0.46	55	0.7801	65
Syracuse	0.8400	56	-0.58	56	0.8253	49
Notre Dame	0.8388	57	-0.61	57	0.8757	29
Penn St.	0.8266	58	-1.10	59	0.8731	31
Murray St.	0.8244	59	-0.66	58	0.7727	70
USC	0.8232	60	-1.12	60	0.8378	45
Maryland	0.8198	61	-1.29	62	0.8508	40
Utah	0.8188	62	-1.21	61	0.7830	64
Georgia	0.8091	63	-1.89	68	0.7872	61
Boston College	0.8070	64	-1.78	65	0.7625	74
Alabama	0.8048	65	-2.15	71	0.8241	52
Arizona St.	0.8023	66	-1.87	66	0.8380	44
LSU	0.8014	67	-1.97	69	0.7880	59
Old Dominion	0.8004	68	-1.38	63	0.7876	60
BYU	0.7883	69	-2.12	70	0.7662	72
Western Kentucky	0.7882	70	-1.89	67	0.7615	75
UNC Greensboro	0.7861	71	-1.55	64	0.7108	90
Temple	0.7760	72	-2.83	78	0.7276	82
Oregon	0.7698	73	-2.82	77	0.7932	58
Buffalo	0.7680	74	-2.27	73	0.7328	81
South Carolina	0.7677	75	-3.30	85	0.7525	79
Washington	0.7649	76	-3.13	80	0.6692	105
St. John’s	0.7646	77	-3.44	89	0.7767	68
College of Charleston	0.7607	78	-2.16	72	0.6275	116
Indiana	0.7541	79	-3.32	86	0.7694	71
UCF	0.7467	80	-3.19	82	0.6965	96
Montana	0.7433	81	-2.43	74	0.6887	98
San Diego St.	0.7406	82	-3.11	79	0.8028	55
Wyoming	0.7316	83	-3.82	94	0.6079	124
South Dakota	0.7306	84	-2.70	76	0.7613	76
Tulsa	0.7298	85	-3.36	88	0.6689	106
Bucknell	0.7286	86	-3.17	81	0.7082	92
Stanford	0.7279	87	-4.29	104	0.7193	87
Wisconsin	0.7267	88	-4.49	105	0.7837	63
Belmont	0.7252	89	-3.28	84	0.7249	83
East Tennessee St.	0.7249	90	-3.20	83	0.6994	95
Northeastern	0.7179	91	-3.99	97	0.6874	99
Colorado	0.7134	92	-4.69	107	0.6328	113
Fresno St.	0.7101	93	-3.83	95	0.7546	78
Davidson	0.7073	94	-3.79	93	0.8250	51
Iowa St.	0.7068	95	-4.85	109	0.7004	94
Memphis	0.7068	96	-4.12	101	0.5298	159
Rider	0.7035	97	-3.68	92	0.5641	140
Northwestern	0.7025	98	-5.05	111	0.7562	77
Stephen F. Austin	0.6998	99	-2.49	75	0.6156	120
Penn	0.6913	100	-3.64	90	0.6147	121
Marshall	0.6887	101	-3.98	96	0.5969	128
Wright St.	0.6857	102	-4.08	100	0.5761	134
UC Santa Barbara	0.6821	103	-3.66	91	0.5696	137
Lipscomb	0.6810	104	-3.34	87	0.4926	172
UC Davis	0.6806	105	-4.14	102	0.5658	139
Georgetown	0.6798	106	-4.58	106	0.6832	101
UNLV	0.6724	107	-5.15	112	0.6718	104
Minnesota	0.6666	108	-5.57	115	0.6795	102
Furman	0.6661	109	-4.08	99	0.7089	91
Illinois St.	0.6625	110	-6.73	143	0.5407	153
Utah Valley	0.6563	111	-4.00	98	0.7035	93
Southern Illinois	0.6561	112	-5.95	120	0.5502	148
Vanderbilt	0.6557	113	-6.79	146	0.7244	84
Idaho	0.6512	114	-4.17	103	0.5845	130
Toledo	0.6498	115	-4.88	110	0.6299	115
Iowa	0.6439	116	-6.76	145	0.7231	85
Bradley	0.6415	117	-6.43	137	0.5761	133
Northern Kentucky	0.6344	118	-4.74	108	0.7125	89
Connecticut	0.6241	119	-5.95	119	0.6306	114
William & Mary	0.6138	120	-6.13	127	0.5152	163
Georgia St.	0.6121	121	-5.89	117	0.6374	111
New Mexico	0.6112	122	-6.57	138	0.6361	112
Illinois	0.6109	123	-7.18	151	0.6946	97
Hofstra	0.6078	124	-6.16	128	0.5374	155
Georgia Tech	0.6074	125	-6.92	147	0.6417	110
SMU	0.6057	126	-6.10	126	0.7641	73
Mississippi	0.6047	127	-7.79	161	0.6718	103
San Diego	0.6037	128	-6.09	125	0.5883	129
Oregon St.	0.6018	129	-7.17	150	0.6851	100
Georgia Southern	0.6018	130	-6.32	134	0.5621	141
Wofford	0.6003	131	-6.04	124	0.5298	158
VCU	0.5993	132	-6.96	148	0.6000	127
UMBC	0.5968	133	-5.16	113	0.4285	190
Northern Colorado	0.5954	134	-6.18	129	0.5754	135
UT Arlington	0.5952	135	-6.31	133	0.6027	126
Ball St.	0.5947	136	-6.30	132	0.4994	170
Harvard	0.5885	137	-6.58	140	0.5539	145
Canisius	0.5880	138	-6.65	141	0.5827	131
Iona	0.5848	139	-7.38	155	0.6096	123
UAB	0.5787	140	-6.29	131	0.6633	107
Northern Iowa	0.5775	141	-7.89	162	0.6109	122
Albany	0.5770	142	-5.99	122	0.5561	144
DePaul	0.5720	143	-7.59	158	0.6629	108
UNC Asheville	0.5697	144	-6.24	130	0.4425	186
Portland St.	0.5686	145	-6.74	144	0.5131	165
Eastern Michigan	0.5655	146	-6.41	136	0.5223	161
Wake Forest	0.5632	147	-8.24	171	0.7192	88
San Francisco	0.5628	148	-7.30	154	0.5422	152
Weber St.	0.5593	149	-5.99	123	0.5453	150
Radford	0.5592	150	-6.58	139	0.4721	180
Missouri St.	0.5590	151	-8.82	181	0.6242	117
Saint Louis	0.5547	152	-8.01	166	0.5671	138
Rutgers	0.5539	153	-7.41	157	0.6029	125
Drake	0.5539	154	-8.94	182	0.4962	171
Utah St.	0.5504	155	-8.16	168	0.5619	142
Eastern Washington	0.5487	156	-7.40	156	0.5457	149
Southeastern Louisiana	0.5485	157	-5.91	118	0.3935	204
Cal St. Fullerton	0.5465	158	-6.37	135	0.4610	183
Wagner	0.5458	159	-5.44	114	0.4636	182
Saint Joseph’s	0.5456	160	-8.18	169	0.6213	118
Jacksonville St.	0.5350	161	-7.09	149	0.5527	147
Evansville	0.5348	162	-8.55	177	0.5250	160
UTSA	0.5329	163	-7.24	153	0.4645	181
Dayton	0.5259	164	-9.07	185	0.5353	156
Nicholls St.	0.5254	165	-5.97	121	0.4398	188
Niagara	0.5253	166	-8.23	170	0.4049	198
Grand Canyon	0.5231	167	-5.58	116	0.6515	109
Yale	0.5087	168	-7.91	163	0.4887	175
Tennessee Tech	0.4988	169	-8.29	173	0.3622	223
George Washington	0.4976	170	-9.38	190	0.4407	187
Florida Gulf Coast	0.4948	171	-6.67	142	0.6171	119
Austin Peay	0.4922	172	-7.99	165	0.4020	202
Oakland	0.4878	173	-8.36	175	0.5077	167
Towson	0.4873	174	-9.36	189	0.5601	143
Tulane	0.4872	175	-8.05	167	0.5032	168
George Mason	0.4862	176	-9.44	191	0.3885	207
Washington St.	0.4862	177	-10.42	209	0.4385	189
UC Irvine	0.4856	178	-9.17	186	0.5709	136
Mercer	0.4814	179	-8.36	174	0.5809	132
Seattle	0.4806	180	-7.19	152	0.3878	209
Winthrop	0.4675	181	-7.67	159	0.5322	157
Valparaiso	0.4633	182	-10.50	215	0.5442	151
Western Michigan	0.4584	183	-10.08	199	0.4429	185
Hawaii	0.4583	184	-7.95	164	0.3872	210
Louisiana Tech	0.4552	185	-9.24	188	0.5405	154
Fort Wayne	0.4552	186	-8.70	179	0.5152	164
Colgate	0.4536	187	-8.58	178	0.4111	196
Long Beach St.	0.4484	188	-9.90	195	0.3911	206
Navy	0.4482	189	-8.26	172	0.3712	218
La Salle	0.4468	190	-11.34	226	0.5535	146
Hartford	0.4434	191	-9.19	187	0.3408	230
Miami OH	0.4429	192	-10.50	214	0.4149	193
Pacific	0.4423	193	-10.47	212	0.4724	179
Central Michigan	0.4381	194	-9.06	184	0.4920	174
Troy	0.4314	195	-10.25	202	0.5113	166
Richmond	0.4306	196	-11.14	222	0.4757	178
Indiana St.	0.4274	197	-11.23	224	0.5204	162
Kent St.	0.4259	198	-10.67	217	0.3975	203
Fairfield	0.4201	199	-10.59	216	0.3882	208
Liberty	0.4097	200	-9.97	196	0.4995	169
Louisiana Monroe	0.4089	201	-8.97	183	0.3668	222
Denver	0.4056	202	-10.01	198	0.3698	219
Sam Houston St.	0.4038	203	-8.78	180	0.3525	226
St. Francis PA	0.4028	204	-7.73	160	0.4048	199
Bowling Green	0.4018	205	-11.37	227	0.3258	233
Massachusetts	0.3994	206	-12.25	245	0.4281	191
Princeton	0.3907	207	-10.45	210	0.4811	177
North Dakota St.	0.3879	208	-10.69	218	0.4922	173
Southern Miss	0.3846	209	-10.46	211	0.3159	238
Illinois Chicago	0.3801	210	-10.38	207	0.4020	201
Duquesne	0.3779	211	-10.31	204	0.4482	184
Tennessee St.	0.3774	212	-9.69	193	0.3796	213
Ohio	0.3756	213	-11.60	232	0.4243	192
Lehigh	0.3743	214	-9.75	194	0.3613	225
Appalachian St.	0.3723	215	-11.98	241	0.4136	195
North Texas	0.3713	216	-11.12	221	0.4143	194
Elon	0.3680	217	-12.19	244	0.3312	232
Akron	0.3679	218	-11.94	240	0.3039	244
Central Arkansas	0.3670	219	-10.35	205	0.3934	205
Pittsburgh	0.3603	220	-11.20	223	0.3614	224
UT Rio Grande Valley	0.3603	221	-10.47	213	0.2754	265
Lamar	0.3584	222	-10.00	197	0.4060	197
Colorado St.	0.3577	223	-12.49	252	0.3447	228
Cornell	0.3540	224	-10.37	206	0.2912	258
Boston University	0.3529	225	-11.57	229	0.3194	234
Manhattan	0.3526	226	-12.38	247	0.3826	211
Air Force	0.3525	227	-12.45	251	0.3028	245
Robert Morris	0.3514	228	-12.05	242	0.3028	246
Texas St.	0.3501	229	-12.69	258	0.3745	216
Monmouth	0.3390	230	-13.58	267	0.4853	176
Saint Peter’s	0.3360	231	-13.09	262	0.3790	214
Mount St. Mary’s	0.3347	232	-10.27	203	0.3171	237
Milwaukee	0.3324	233	-12.39	248	0.3755	215
Coastal Carolina	0.3305	234	-13.30	265	0.4029	200
Western Carolina	0.3279	235	-11.79	236	0.1994	305
Stony Brook	0.3250	236	-12.70	259	0.3712	217
Delaware	0.3225	237	-13.86	276	0.3001	248
Drexel	0.3220	238	-14.56	285	0.3025	247
South Alabama	0.3174	239	-12.82	260	0.3671	221
New Orleans	0.3168	240	-10.13	200	0.2837	261
North Dakota	0.3103	241	-12.64	256	0.2856	260
LIU Brooklyn	0.3078	242	-13.23	263	0.2962	253
Cal St. Bakersfield	0.3074	243	-11.02	219	0.3150	239
Northern Illinois	0.3054	244	-13.72	272	0.2988	250
Grambling St.	0.3043	245	-10.39	208	0.1843	317
North Florida	0.3025	246	-11.38	228	0.2257	289
Idaho St.	0.3004	247	-11.79	238	0.2939	256
Loyola Marymount	0.2973	248	-12.50	253	0.3340	231
Southern Utah	0.2876	249	-12.28	246	0.2260	288
Campbell	0.2860	250	-11.60	233	0.3685	220
Gardner Webb	0.2844	251	-12.07	243	0.2832	262
Southeast Missouri St.	0.2828	252	-12.66	257	0.2727	266
North Carolina A&T	0.2807	253	-9.62	192	0.1916	310
Savannah St.	0.2751	254	-8.52	176	0.1712	321
UNC Wilmington	0.2745	255	-15.01	295	0.3193	235
Abilene Christian	0.2701	256	-11.74	235	0.2710	267
Quinnipiac	0.2679	257	-16.27	310	0.2387	280
Oral Roberts	0.2674	258	-13.62	269	0.3065	242
Charleston Southern	0.2667	259	-11.58	231	0.3080	241
FIU	0.2657	260	-13.85	275	0.2945	254
Central Connecticut	0.2634	261	-13.97	279	0.1920	309
Holy Cross	0.2606	262	-15.09	297	0.2439	277
Brown	0.2595	263	-11.85	239	0.2794	264
California	0.2588	264	-14.81	288	0.3192	236
Florida Atlantic	0.2576	265	-13.43	266	0.3045	243
Montana St.	0.2567	266	-14.54	283	0.2505	275
Army	0.2558	267	-13.69	271	0.3082	240
Eastern Illinois	0.2540	268	-13.81	273	0.2931	257
Prairie View A&M	0.2516	269	-11.27	225	0.2607	270
High Point	0.2471	270	-12.41	249	0.3442	229
Fordham	0.2460	271	-15.20	299	0.2342	284
Western Illinois	0.2452	272	-11.57	230	0.2243	291
Fairleigh Dickinson	0.2432	273	-13.25	264	0.2655	269
UTEP	0.2431	274	-14.62	287	0.2989	249
Hampton	0.2421	275	-10.22	201	0.2945	255
NJIT	0.2416	276	-11.79	237	0.2963	251
South Florida	0.2345	277	-13.94	278	0.2351	282
James Madison	0.2337	278	-16.72	317	0.3458	227
East Carolina	0.2302	279	-12.58	255	0.2069	300
Arkansas St.	0.2286	280	-15.56	302	0.2583	273
Santa Clara	0.2278	281	-13.63	270	0.2590	272
Bethune Cookman	0.2235	282	-11.72	234	0.2082	298
St. Francis NY	0.2199	283	-14.56	286	0.1910	312
IUPUI	0.2186	284	-13.89	277	0.2339	285
Cleveland St.	0.2160	285	-17.02	320	0.2072	299
UMass Lowell	0.2134	286	-14.29	281	0.2302	286
Portland	0.2089	287	-14.85	290	0.2600	271
Eastern Kentucky	0.2088	288	-14.84	289	0.2275	287
Nebraska Omaha	0.2079	289	-14.55	284	0.2545	274
Green Bay	0.2059	290	-14.87	291	0.2866	259
Jacksonville	0.2011	291	-13.58	268	0.1642	324
SIU Edwardsville	0.2011	292	-15.59	303	0.1746	319
Texas Southern	0.2009	293	-11.05	220	0.2962	252
UMKC	0.1904	294	-14.91	293	0.2089	297
Cal Poly	0.1896	295	-16.34	312	0.1740	320
McNeese St.	0.1842	296	-13.08	261	0.2011	304
Columbia	0.1810	297	-13.85	274	0.3813	212
The Citadel	0.1799	298	-15.03	296	0.1860	315
Lafayette	0.1702	299	-17.02	319	0.2439	276
Siena	0.1698	300	-18.43	327	0.2221	292
UC Riverside	0.1632	301	-16.04	306	0.2402	278
Arkansas Pine Bluff	0.1625	302	-15.56	301	0.1319	330
North Carolina Central	0.1622	303	-12.52	254	0.2029	302
Samford	0.1609	304	-15.43	300	0.2389	279
Kennesaw St.	0.1606	305	-14.88	292	0.2017	303
Southern	0.1606	306	-12.44	250	0.1603	325
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	0.1585	307	-14.23	280	0.1945	308
Binghamton	0.1584	308	-16.22	308	0.2251	290
Loyola MD	0.1565	309	-17.50	322	0.1911	311
Morehead St.	0.1545	310	-15.10	298	0.2349	283
Chattanooga	0.1543	311	-17.74	323	0.2166	294
Dartmouth	0.1536	312	-15.61	304	0.2366	281
Tennessee Martin	0.1532	313	-16.44	314	0.2160	295
New Hampshire	0.1509	314	-16.25	309	0.2819	263
VMI	0.1441	315	-15.86	305	0.1188	333
Stetson	0.1429	316	-16.46	315	0.1801	318
Presbyterian	0.1422	317	-16.31	311	0.1260	331
Norfolk St.	0.1383	318	-14.38	282	0.1888	313
Sacred Heart	0.1354	319	-17.08	321	0.1982	306
Youngstown St.	0.1325	320	-18.48	329	0.1676	323
Charlotte	0.1318	321	-17.79	324	0.1853	316
Morgan St.	0.1284	322	-14.98	294	0.1600	326
Detroit	0.1277	323	-18.52	330	0.1867	314
Little Rock	0.1222	324	-19.52	339	0.2127	296
Sacramento St.	0.1205	325	-19.27	335	0.2168	293
Pepperdine	0.1181	326	-18.19	325	0.2701	268
Marist	0.1171	327	-20.28	342	0.1685	322
Rice	0.1121	328	-18.27	326	0.1978	307
Jackson St.	0.1084	329	-16.15	307	0.1052	337
San Jose St.	0.1059	330	-19.17	333	0.2068	301
South Carolina St.	0.0916	331	-16.35	313	0.0841	343
American	0.0909	332	-19.21	334	0.1486	327
Cal St. Northridge	0.0866	333	-18.94	331	0.1414	328
Howard	0.0818	334	-18.98	332	0.1188	334
Maine	0.0803	335	-20.39	343	0.1258	332
Alabama St.	0.0776	336	-18.45	328	0.0935	340
Florida A&M	0.0749	337	-19.39	337	0.0867	342
Longwood	0.0736	338	-21.41	347	0.0823	344
Northern Arizona	0.0709	339	-20.93	345	0.1144	335
Alcorn St.	0.0705	340	-16.55	316	0.1042	338
USC Upstate	0.0519	341	-19.89	340	0.1137	336
Maryland Eastern Shore	0.0473	342	-19.52	338	0.0432	349
Incarnate Word	0.0462	343	-16.80	318	0.1003	339
Houston Baptist	0.0462	344	-19.30	336	0.1366	329
Coppin St.	0.0450	345	-21.17	346	0.0611	347
Bryant	0.0444	346	-23.11	349	0.0926	341
Mississippi Valley St.	0.0313	347	-22.87	348	0.0581	348
Chicago St.	0.0260	348	-20.27	341	0.0637	346
Alabama A&M	0.0229	349	-23.45	350	0.0373	351
Delaware St.	0.0148	350	-24.37	351	0.0426	350
Northwestern St.	0.0023	351	-20.50	344	0.0682	345