538 has the Celtics at 63% to win game 1:


The markets have them around 37%, so there is quite a disagreement. 538 also has the Celtics at 52% to win the series. The market is… skeptical.

Team Risked To Win Result
Pacers 20155 143300 -20155
Bulls 8800 33000 -8800
Wizards 34900 16619 16619
Trailblazers 2867 86000 -2867
Thunder 8462 27500 -8462
Jazz 13845 28520 28520
Raptors R2 41958 160280 -41958
Rockets R2 9247 20990 -9247
Jazz R2 3313 53000 -3313
Spurs R3 2765 23500 0
Celtics R3 43351 240600 0
Current Tab -49661

It’s as Nate Silver always says: Get rich or die trying.

As for ESPN and Ben Alamar, they are also quite confident in the Celtics:

Team Risked To Win Result
Pacers 8720 62000 -8720
Raptors 15340 3854 3854
Bulls 11333 42500 -11333
X Warriors 4-0 4450 4045 -4450
Rockets 5000 1333 1333
Jazz 12359 25460 25460
Raptors R2 33126 126540 -33126
Celtics R2 5480 3079 3079
Jazz R2 1188 19000 -1188
Spurs R3 9471 80500 0
Celtics R3 35090 194750 0
Current Tab -25090

It should be a fun ride to the finals.


Spotrac has free agent quarterback contract data publicly available back through the 2011 free agency period, so I’ve focused my research on the 2011-2017 period. During that time quarterbacks switched teams in free agency 85 times. Of those 85, three signed deals worth over $10M a year:

Name Salary Guaranteed $ DYAR DVOA Year
P.Manning 19200000 1400 19.00% 2012
B.Osweiler 18000000 37000000 153 -3.20% 2016
M.Glennon 15000000 18500000 65 65.90% 2017

Let’s start with Manning. His data is actually not from 2011, but from 2010. He missed 2011 with a neck injury, which set of a chain of events. The Colts tanked for Andrew Luck, which made Manning expendable. He was allowed to become a free agent and ended up signing in Denver. He proved to still have some gas left in the tank and led the Broncos to a Super Bowl, which they lost to Seattle. Then, he ran out of gas, and was benched for Brock Osweiler (Peyton was also injured). Brock was decent in limited playing time, but once Manning was healthy, Brock went back to the bench. The defense carried them to a Super Bowl victory. Brock was displeased at his treatment, and the Texans were hopeful he was the missing piece.

Extremely Ron Howard voice:

“But he wasn’t the missing piece.”

Still, he snookered the Texans for a large sum of money, so, good for him. That brings us to Mike Glennon. Glennon threw 11 passes last season. He didn’t throw any in 2015, so his contract is rather questionable. Like Osweiler’s, it’s a gamble that a tall white quarterback that couldn’t win the starting job will be your savior. Of course, the Bears then proceeded to trade up to draft Mitch Trubisky, so the who the heck knows what their long term plan is. In any event, the list of quarterbacks who struck it rich by changing teams in free agency is mercifully short.

Next up is the list of quarterbacks who got at least $5M in guaranteed money:

C.Daniel 7000000 12000000 -28 -24.40% 2016
B.Hoyer 6000000 9850000 403 19.50% 2017
N.Foles 5500000 7000000 7 -9.30% 2017
R.Griffin 7500000 6750000 -374 -34.20% 2016
J.McCown 6000000 6000000 -269 -34.40% 2017

Chase Daniel’s numbers are actually from 2014, where he sucked in limited playing time. His agency earned their fee. I’m not sure what the Eagles were hoping for, but they clearly didn’t get it. Of course, like the Bears, they traded up for a quarterback, so we’ll see how that goes.

RG3’s numbers were from 2014. He was terrible, but the Browns rolled the dice. Or they were transparently tanking. It’s so hard to tell with modern art these days. He was awful in Cleveland last year, but perhaps that was the plan. He’s available in free agency again.

Hoyer was remarkably good last season. Good enough that I’m going to have to do a deep dive to see if he gives San Francisco some hope of returning to mediocrity this season. He’s actually been above replacement level for a while now.

Foles was a one-year wonder under Chip Kelly. He was great in 2013, decent in 2014, and fell off a cliff in 2015. Last year he was… replacement-level. Now he’s backing up Carson Wentz. Seems about right.

Finally, we come to Josh McCown. McCown was terrible last season, and has never been good. Let’s see what team was dumb enough to make him the 6 million dollar man… “@!#?@!” GDI Jets.

It’s kind of surprising that there have only been eight contracts given out with either $5m+ guaranteed or an eight figure salary. Good quarterbacks rarely hit free agency. Let’s check the 3-5M range:

B.Hoyer 5250000 4750000 166 -5.30% 2015
J.McCown 5000000 4750000 659 32.10% 2014
C.Daniel 3333333 4750000 #N/A #N/A 2013
M.Vick 4000000 4000000 40 -6.90% 2014
R.Fitzpatrick 3625000 4000000 179 -3.60% 2014
S.Hill 3250000 3200000 -46 -14.10% 2015
K.Orton 5500000 3000000 51 4.00% 2014
M.Hasselbeck 3625000 3000000 -6 -11.50% 2013
D.Stanton 2733333 3000000 174 12.20% 2013

Does Chase Daniel just interview really, really well? It’s baffling. Here’s Hoyer again. As we know from above, he turned out to be more than worth it. Oh, there’s McCown again, coming off of a career year. We know how that turned out as well. McCown’s history lead to more skepticism from the Buccaneers than the Jets showed. FML.

Vick was an odd case. He didn’t manage to accomplish much in NY, but expectations were low. Fitzpatrick managed to roll together a few solid years, albeit for two different teams. Alas, his flaws were readily evident, so the Jets played hardball with him. He eventually signed, and got his revenge by stinking up the joint.

Hasselbeck was decent his first year in Indianapolis, but faded after that. Orton was suitably mediocre in Buffalo, and that was it for him. That leaves Stanton. Stanton was a decent backup in Arizona, who got hurt not long as Palmer did. He was stunningly awful last season, but that’s not particularly important to us.

OK, that covered the quarterbacks who struck it rich (for some definitions of rich). Let’s look at the quarterbacks who put up -100 DYAR or worse heading into free agency:

Name Salary Guaranteed $ DYAR DVOA Year
B.Gradkowski 2000000 -106 -21.00% 2011
C.Painter 615000 -375 -33.30% 2012
L.McCown 825000 -250 -73.40% 2012
C.Whitehurst 1525000 1000000 -160 -49.20% 2012
B.Quinn 715000 -440 -43.80% 2013
K.Kolb 3050000 1000000 -154 -23.10% 2013
J.Campbell 1875000 500000 -129 -50.20% 2013
B.Weeden 615000 -443 -36.10% 2014
M.Vick 970000 -228 -36.80% 2015
M.Schaub 2000000 2000000 -158 -220.70% 2015
R.Griffin 7500000 6750000 -374 -34.20% 2016
N.Foles 1750000 -353 -27.90% 2016
M.Sanchez 2000000 -227 -46.90% 2016
M.Cassel 2000000 750000 -172 -23.70% 2016
M.Schaub 2750000 500000 -146 -38.40% 2016
J.McCown 6000000 6000000 -269 -34.40% 2017
C.Keenum 2000000 1000000 -185 -19.60% 2017
B.Gabbert 900000 -158 -25.40% 2017
M.Sanchez 2000000 1000000 -117 -95.70% 2017

Charlie Whitehurst was a yard away from making this list twice. We’ve covered RG3 and McCown (sigh). The best of these signings is probably Foles in Kansas City, and he’s since gone back to Philadelphia. McCown’s agent is a god. Somehow the Sanchize keeps finding work. Blaine Gabbert is in the running for retiring as the career leader in negative DYAR. As for Keenum in Minnesota, I have to think the prognosis for Bridgewater is just awful.

So, where does this leave Kaepernick? Well, let’s look at his progression:

C.Kaepernick 555 25.80% 2012
C.Kaepernick 791 16.60% 2013
C.Kaepernick 91 -8.40% 2014
C.Kaepernick -182 -21.50% 2015
C.Kaepernick -149 -17.70% 2016

It’s been a rough few years for Kaepernick. The last few years have been absolutely awful. The team around him has been bad, but so has he. It’s kind of amazing to see that he was awesome and cheap, and then lousy after getting paid:


So, what now? ESPN pontificated earlier today that the Seahawks should sign him to a $4M deal. Would he take that? I don’t know. I’m also not sure if Seattle would offer it. They have a limited amount of cap space and might be looking for a cheaper option if they decide they need one more backup quarterback.


Then again, perhaps Kaepernick would be that cheaper option. Until he actually has an offer in hand, his situation is pretty opaque. Of course, there is also this:


He’s still young, which can have some value. The fact that he hasn’t signed yet suggests the market for Kaepernick isn’t quite as strong as his age would suggest. I expect him to eventually end up on a team, and I’m quite curious about what that contract will look like. Best guess? 2-4M, 1 year. It might be a while though. His play really has been poor, so you’d be rolling the dice on recapturing the magic from the Harbaugh era, before there was a lot of film on him and defenses adjusted.

The ultimate moral of the story is that if you want to find a quarterback, free agency is a tough place to look. Some of those draft day trades look a bit better in this light.





More faith than the markets. First, 538:

538 Nate Silver 538 Nate Silver
Team Risked To Win Result
Pacers 20155 143300 -20155
Bulls 8800 33000 -8800
Wizards 34900 16619 16619
Trailblazers 2867 86000 -2867
Thunder 8462 27500 -8462
Jazz 13845 28520 28520
Raptors R2 41958 160280 -41958
Rockets R2 9247 20990 -9247
Jazz R2 3313 53000 -3313
Spurs R3 2765 23500 0
Current Tab -49661

It has not been a great postseason for 538, but perhaps they can rally in the Championship rounds. As for ESPN’s BPI:

Team Risked To Win Result
Pacers 8720 62000 -8720
Raptors 15340 3854 3854
Bulls 11333 42500 -11333
X Warriors 4-0 4450 4045 -4450
Rockets 5000 1333 1333
Jazz 12359 25460 25460
Raptors R2 33126 126540 -33126
Celtics R2 5480 3079 0
Jazz R2 1188 19000 -1188
Spurs R3 9471 80500 0
Current Tab -19449

They’ll strike it rich if the Spurs strike the upset. I also suspect they make big bucks if someone knocks of Cleveland in the ECF, but we’ll cross that bridge when we get there.



Ben and ESPN went HAM on the Raptors, and even provided some commentary on Twitter:

Jeff Ma had a straightforward response:

The kicker came in this exchange:

There is a lot to unpack here. First of all, Ben knows that we cannot run the series 10,000 times. Ergo, his statement is to never use BPI projections to wager on sporting events. Risk aversion is one thing, but in general that can be handled by using a fractional version of Kelly-betting. If you are advising to never bet your numbers, then you are admitting they are effectively worthless. Jeff continued to probe the issue.

Ben 10… thousand has a lot of confidence in the model? I need to point out that there are highly liquid markets that trade daily for Ben to track and test his model against. Thing is, that’s not what it was built to do. I noted this:

Jacob chimed in as well:

Jeff continued to probe.

OK then…

In the end, it really does come down to this:

Jeff Ma got in the final word.

So, in summation ESPN is producing highly off market numbers displayed as fact. Ben Alamar knows enough not to believe his own bullshit, and is unwilling to back his numbers with cash. Jeff Ma called him on it, and Ben walked away from the conversation. Just another day on a website that is somehow still free.

Let’s look at where Ben Alamar’s BPI stands right now:

Team Risked To Win Result
Pacers 8720 62000 -8720
Raptors 15340 3854 3854
Bulls 11333 42500 -11333
X Warriors 4-0 4450 4045 -4450
Rockets 5000 1333 1333
Jazz 12359 25460 25460
Raptors R2 33126 126540 0
Celtics R2 5480 3079 0
Jazz R2 1188 19000 0
Current Tab 6144

And let’s look in on Nate Silver and 538:

Team Risked To Win Result
Pacers 20155 143300 -20155
Bulls 8800 33000 -8800
Wizards 34900 16619 16619
Trailblazers 2867 86000 -2867
Thunder 8462 27500 -8462
Jazz 13845 28520 28520
Raptors R2 41958 160280 0
Rockets R2 9247 20990 0
Jazz R2 3313 53000 0
Current Tab 4856


538 is rooting for for the Jazz today, but the real prize is the Raptors in round two:

Team Risked To Win Result
Pacers 20155 143300 -20155
Bulls 8800 33000 -8800
Wizards 34900 16619 16619
Trailblazers 2867 86000 -2867
Thunder 8462 27500 -8462
Jazz 13845 28520 0
Raptors R2 41958 160280 0
Rockets R2 9247 20990 0
Current Tab -23664

I’m just doing series tracking, but if I were tracking futures, 538 would have 74.5% of their bankroll on the field winning the East. That’s a lot of skepticism towards Cleveland. We’ll see how that goes.

ESPN is fairly skeptical of Cleveland as well. Also, they too are rooting for the Jazz to et a profitable first round.

Team Risked To Win Result
Pacers 8720 62000 -8720
Raptors 15340 3854 3854
Bulls 11333 42500 -11333
X Warriors 4-0 4450 4045 -4450
Rockets 5000 1333 1333
Jazz 12359 25460 0
Raptors R2 33126 126540 0
Celtics R2 5480 3079 0
Current Tab -19316

I’ll update the tabs and the Golden State series projection later this week.




Running Backs:


Wide Receivers:


Offensive Linemen:


Defensive Tackles:


Edge Rushers:


Inside Linebackers:


Defensive Backs:


And the ratings:

Name Position School Rating Ranking
Myles Garrett* DE Texas A&M 98.82 1
Jonathan Allen DT Alabama 88.84 2
Leonard Fournette* RB LSU 88.51 3
Solomon Thomas* DE Stanford 82.71 4
Jamal Adams* SS LSU 81.28 5
Marshon Lattimore* CB Ohio State 79.75 6
Malik Hooker* FS Ohio State 78.41 7
Reuben Foster ILB Alabama 77.56 8
O.J. Howard TE Alabama 76.95 9
Mike Williams* WR Clemson 74.59 10
John Ross* WR Washington 74.51 11
Dalvin Cook* RB Florida State 74.28 12
Mitch Trubisky* QB North Carolina 73.60 13
Derek Barnett* DE Tennessee 73.35 14
Corey Davis WR Western Michigan 73.07 15
Ryan Ramczyk* OT Wisconsin 72.83 16
David Njoku* TE Miami (FL) 72.60 17
Haason Reddick OLB Temple 72.06 18
Taco Charlton DE Michigan 70.92 19
Christian Mccaffrey* RB Stanford 70.11 20
Cam Robinson* OT Alabama 70.11 21
Takkarist Mckinley OLB UCLA 69.97 22
Marlon Humphrey* CB Alabama 69.78 23
Forrest Lamp OG Western Kentucky 69.51 24
Jabrill Peppers* S Michigan 69.44 25
Garett Bolles* OT Utah 69.36 26
Deshaun Watson* QB Clemson 68.60 27
Malik McDowell* DT Michigan State 67.94 28
Charles Harris DE Missouri 67.49 29
Caleb Brantley* DT Florida 66.98 30
Zach Cunningham* OLB Vanderbilt 66.51 31
Tre’Davious White CB LSU 66.32 32
Tim Williams DE Alabama 65.94 33
Jarrad Davis ILB Florida 64.44 34
Teez Tabor* CB Florida 63.42 35
Gareon Conley* CB Ohio State 63.22 36
Budda Baker* S Washington 62.95 37
Evan Engram TE Mississippi 62.74 38
Patrick Mahomes II* QB Texas Tech 62.55 39
Sidney Jones* CB Washington 61.76 40
Alvin Kamara* RB Tennessee 61.54 41
DeShone Kizer* QB Notre Dame 61.38 42
Carl Lawson* DE Auburn 59.29 43
Jordan Willis DE Kansas State 58.96 44
Adoree’ Jackson* CB USC 58.91 45
Raekwon McMillan* ILB Ohio State 58.65 46
Quincy Wilson* CB Florida 58.52 47
T.J. Watt* OLB Wisconsin 58.50 48
Curtis Samuel* WR Ohio State 58.43 49
Joe Mixon* RB Oklahoma 58.42 50
Dan Feeney OG Indiana 58.09 51
Desmond King CB Iowa 58.05 52
Marcus Williams* S Utah 57.53 53
Taylor Moton OG Western Michigan 57.06 54
Obi Melifonwu S Connecticut 56.81 55
JuJu Smith-Schuster* WR USC 56.33 56
Dion Dawkins OG Temple 55.34 57
Gerald Everett TE South Alabama 55.14 58
Ryan Anderson OLB Alabama 54.96 59
Tyus Bowser OLB Houston 54.79 60
Antonio Garcia OT Troy 54.64 61
Justin Evans S Texas A&M 54.51 62
Chris Wormley DT Michigan 54.18 63
Marcus Maye S Florida 54.17 64
Pat Elflein C Ohio State 53.84 65
Cooper Kupp WR Eastern Washington 53.66 66
Chidobe Awuzie CB Colorado 53.44 67
Bucky Hodges* TE Virginia Tech 53.23 68
Isaiah “Zay” Jones WR East Carolina 53.06 69
Jake Butt TE Michigan 52.94 70
D’Onta Foreman* RB Texas 52.81 71
Dawaune Smoot DE Illinois 52.61 72
Ethan Pocic C LSU 52.13 73
Derek Rivers DE Youngstown State 52.09 74
DeMarcus Walker DE Florida State 52.01 75
Cameron Sutton CB Tennessee 51.09 76
Cordrea Tankersley CB Clemson 51.00 77
Kevin King CB Washington 50.88 78
Dalvin Tomlinson DT Alabama 50.84 79
Samaje Perine* RB Oklahoma 50.71 80
Chris Godwin* WR Penn State 50.63 81
Duke Riley OLB LSU 50.63 82
Jaleel Johnson DT Iowa 50.62 83
Taywan Taylor WR Western Kentucky 50.55 84
Dorian Johnson OG Pittsburgh 50.19 85
Nathan Peterman QB Pittsburgh 49.31 86
Isaiah Ford* WR Virginia Tech 49.19 87
Josh Jones* S North Carolina State 49.04 88
Carlos Watkins DT Clemson 48.73 89
ArDarius Stewart* WR Alabama 48.01 90
Amara Darboh WR Michigan 48.00 91
Carlos Henderson* WR Louisiana Tech 47.94 92
Roderick Johnson* OT Florida State 47.76 93
Alex Anzalone* ILB Florida 47.57 94
Kareem Hunt RB Toledo 47.04 95
Fabian Moreau CB UCLA 46.91 96
Marlon Mack* RB South Florida 46.84 97
Jordan Leggett TE Clemson 46.11 98
Elijah Qualls* DT Washington 45.74 99
Brad Kaaya* QB Miami (FL) 45.50 100
Montravius Adams DT Auburn 45.16 101
Adam Shaheen TE Ashland 44.92 102
Dede Westbrook WR Oklahoma 44.89 103
Wayne Gallman* RB Clemson 44.89 104
Tanoh Kpassagnon DT Villanova 44.70 105
Kendell Beckwith ILB LSU 44.61 106
Damontae Kazee CB San Diego State 44.22 107
Rasul Douglas CB West Virginia 44.16 108
John Johnson S Boston College 43.83 109
Tarell Basham DE Ohio 43.83 110
Larry Ogunjobi DT Charlotte 43.64 111
Nico Siragusa OG San Diego State 43.58 112
Malachi Dupre* WR LSU 43.48 113
Davis Webb QB California 43.05 114
Anthony Walker Jr.* ILB Northwestern 42.49 115
Vince Biegel OLB Wisconsin 41.99 116
Jeremy Sprinkle TE Arkansas 41.89 117
Jeremy McNichols RB Boise State 41.84 118
Eddie Jackson S Alabama 40.72 119
Howard Wilson* CB Houston 40.17 120
Adam Bisnowaty OG Pittsburgh 40.15 121
Zach Banner OT USC 39.93 122
Chad Hansen* WR California 39.48 123
James Conner* RB Pittsburgh 39.05 124
Josh Reynolds WR Texas A&M 38.72 125
Nazair Jones* DT North Carolina 38.55 126
Vincent Taylor* DT Oklahoma State 38.37 127
Daeshon Hall DE Texas A&M 38.23 128
Ryan Glasgow DT Michigan 38.13 129
Noah Brown* WR Ohio State 37.97 130
Tyler Orlosky C West Virginia 37.94 131
Will Holden OT Vanderbilt 37.88 132
Jerod Evans QB Virginia Tech 37.80 133
Isaac Asiata OG Utah 37.63 134
Tedric Thompson S Colorado 37.50 135
Jarron Jones DT Notre Dame 37.35 136
Jamaal Williams RB Brigham Young 36.91 137
Josh Harvey-Clemons S Louisville 36.74 138
Keionta Davis DE Chattanooga 36.58 139
Michael Roberts TE Toledo 36.50 140
Lorenzo Jerome S St. Francis (PA) 36.41 141
Deatrich Wise Jr. DE Arkansas 36.30 142
Eddie Vanderdoes* DT UCLA 36.24 143
Jon Toth C Kentucky 36.14 144
D J (Donnel) Pumphrey RB San Diego State 36.10 145
Jonnu Smith TE Florida International 35.74 146
Tanzel Smart DT Tulane 35.68 147
Delano Hill S Michigan 35.45 148
Jermaine Eluemunor OG Texas A&M 35.27 149
Trey Hendrickson DE Florida Atlantic 35.18 150
Travis Rudolph* WR Florida State 35.16 151
Ben Gedeon ILB Michigan 35.15 152
Matthew Dayes RB North Carolina State 35.12 153
Corn Elder CB Miami (FL) 35.10 154
Mack Hollins WR North Carolina 34.80 155
Brian Hill* RB Wyoming 34.52 156
KD Cannon* WR Baylor 34.17 157
Julie’n Davenport OT Bucknell 34.12 158
Bryan Cox DE Florida 34.09 159
Charles Walker* DT Oklahoma 34.04 160
Josh Carraway OLB TCU 33.98 161
Devonte Fields OLB Louisville 33.97 162
Cole Hikutini TE Louisville 33.97 163
Davon Godchaux* DT LSU 33.74 164
Al-Quadin Muhammad DE Miami (FL) 33.70 165
Chad Wheeler OT USC 33.60 166
Stacy Coley WR Miami (FL) 33.42 167
Shelton Gibson WR West Virginia 33.37 168
David Sharpe* OT Florida 33.26 169
Corey Clement RB Wisconsin 32.91 170
Joshua Dobbs QB Tennessee 32.80 171
Carroll Phillips OLB Illinois 32.74 172
Jehu Chesson WR Michigan 32.68 173
Rayshawn Jenkins S Miami (FL) 31.40 174
JoJo Mathis DE Washington 31.39 175
Ryan Switzer WR North Carolina 31.26 176
Jourdan Lewis CB Michigan 31.19 177
Ejuan Price DE Pittsburgh 31.19 178
Johnathan (Rudy) Ford S Auburn 30.69 179
Marquez White CB Florida State 30.63 180
Shaquill Griffin CB UCF 30.50 181
Damien Mama* OG USC 30.42 182
Jordan Morgan OG Kutztown 30.04 183
Josh Malone* WR Tennessee 29.60 184
Joe Williams RB Utah 29.18 185
Artavis Scott* WR Clemson 28.84 186
Eric Saubert TE Drake 28.71 187
Chad Kelly QB Mississippi 28.70 188
Amba Etta-Tawo WR Syracuse 28.37 189
Nathan Gerry S Nebraska 28.27 190
Zane Gonzalez PK Arizona State 27.68 191
Billy Brown TE Shepherd 27.52 192
Jamari Staples WR Louisville 27.35 193
Danny Isidora OG Miami (FL) 27.28 194
Jalen Reeves-Maybin OLB Tennessee 27.11 195
Stevie Tu’Ikolovatu DT USC 27.10 196
Channing Stribling CB Michigan 26.78 197
Kyle Fuller C Baylor 26.68 198
Elijah Lee* OLB Kansas State 26.49 199
Ben Boulware ILB Clemson 25.87 200
Elijah Mcguire RB Louisiana-Lafayette 25.65 201
Tarik Cohen RB North Carolina A&T 25.15 202
George Kittle TE Iowa 25.08 203
Ishmael Zamora WR Baylor 25.07 204
Conor McDermott OT UCLA 24.87 205
Matt Milano OLB Boston College 24.84 206
Travin Dural WR LSU 24.60 207
Ahkello Witherspoon CB Colorado 24.56 208
Kenny Golladay WR Northern Illinois 24.47 209
Erik Magnuson OT Michigan 24.37 210
Jadar Johnson S Clemson 24.09 211
Elijah Hood RB North Carolina 24.06 212
Austin Rehkow PT Idaho 23.84 213
D J Jones DT Mississippi 23.79 214
Jessamen Dunker OG Tennessee State 23.39 215
Isaiah McKenzie* WR Georgia 23.30 216
Gabe Marks WR Washington State 23.25 217
Jeremiah Ledbetter DE Arkansas 23.22 218
Dan Skipper OT Arkansas 23.10 219
Hunter Dimick DT Utah 23.09 220
Ashton Lampkin CB Oklahoma State 23.05 221
Marquel Lee OLB Wake Forest 22.95 222
Isaac Rochell DE Notre Dame 22.90 223
Sam Rogers FB Virginia Tech 22.89 224
Jalen Robinette WR Air Force 22.88 225
Nate Hairston CB Temple 22.85 226
Trent Taylor WR Louisiana Tech 22.80 227
T J Logan RB North Carolina 22.75 228
Avery Gennesy OT Texas A&M 22.49 229
Ricky Seals-Jones* WR Texas A&M 22.31 230
Darreus Rogers WR USC 22.30 231
Speedy Noil* WR Texas A&M 22.10 232
Cooper Rush QB Central Michigan 21.99 233
Dare Ogunbowale RB Wisconsin 21.86 234
Brendan Langley CB Lamar 21.80 235
Damore’ea Stringfellow* WR Mississippi 21.76 236
Connor Harris ILB Lindenwood 21.75 237
J J Dielman C Utah 21.73 238
Jake Elliott PK Memphis 21.24 239
Tashawn Bower OLB LSU 20.97 240
Jerome Lane WR Akron 20.95 241
De’Veon Smith RB Michigan 20.52 242
Garrett Sickels* DE Penn State 20.48 243
Bug Howard WR North Carolina 19.89 244
C.J. Beathard QB Iowa 19.84 245
Fred Ross WR Mississippi State 19.63 246
Paul Magloire Jr. OLB Arizona 19.02 247
Scott Orndoff TE Pittsburgh 18.83 248
Justin Senior OT Mississippi State 18.71 249
Corey Levin OG Chattanooga 18.56 250
Robert Davis WR Georgia St 18.40 251
Sefo Liufau QB Colorado 18.15 252
Alek Torgensen QB Pennsylvania 17.87 253
Justin Vogel PT Miami (FL) 17.86 254
Chase Roullier C Wyoming 17.85 255
Hardy Nickerson ILB Illinois 17.43 256
Aviante Collins OT TCU 17.39 257
Dylan Donahue DE West Georgia 17.36 258
Montae Nicholson* S Michigan State 17.14 259
Collin Buchanan OT Miami (OH) 17.13 260
James Quick WR Louisville 16.51 261
Blake Jarwin TE Oklahoma State 16.41 262
DeAngelo Brown DT Louisville 16.16 263
Jeremy Clark CB Michigan 16.01 264
Dylan Cole ILB Missouri State 15.99 265
Devine Redding RB Indiana 15.92 266
Seth Russell QB Baylor 15.90 267
Keith Kelsey ILB Louisville 15.83 268
Storm Norton OT Toledo 15.80 269
Aaron Jones RB UTEP 15.70 270
Fadol Brown DE Mississippi 15.69 271
Blair Brown ILB Ohio 15.48 272
Quincy Adeboyejo WR Mississippi 15.46 273
Pharaoh Brown TE Oregon 15.26 274
Jimmie Gilbert DE Colorado 15.17 275
Riley Bullough ILB Michigan State 15.13 276
Jordan Sterns S Oklahoma State 15.12 277
Krishawn Hogan WR Marian College 14.99 278
Brian Allen CB Utah 14.87 279
Hayden Plinke TE UTEP 14.74 280
Noble Nwachukwu DE West Virginia 14.56 281
Stantley (Boom) Williams RB Kentucky 14.28 282
Brooks Ellis ILB Arkansas 14.17 283
Noel Thomas WR Connecticut 14.14 284
Ken Ekanem DE Virginia Tech 14.14 285
Ben Braden OG Michigan 14.09 286
Rushel Shell RB West Virginia 13.98 287
Jahad Thomas RB Temple 13.74 288
Fish Smithson S Kansas 13.71 289
De’Angelo Henderson RB Coastal Carolina 13.40 290
Pita Taumoepenu DE Utah 13.16 291
Treston Decoud CB Oregon State 12.99 292
Kermit Whitfield WR Florida State 12.96 293
Jalen Myrick CB Minnesota 12.88 294
Cameron Lee OG Illinois State 12.86 295
Xavier Woods S Louisiana Tech 12.76 296
Chuck Clark S Virginia Tech 12.58 297
Darrell Daniels TE Washington 12.28 298
Jerry Ugokwe OT William & Mary 12.26 299
Freddie Stevenson FB Florida State 12.25 300
Antonio Pipkin QB Tiffin 12.09 301
Cameron Tom C Southern Miss 11.99 302
Ifeadi Odenigbo DE Northwestern 11.55 303
Sean Harlow OT Oregon State 11.51 304
Kyle Kalis OG Michigan 11.18 305
Sam Tevi OT Utah 10.90 306
Sojourn Shelton CB Wisconsin 10.67 307


Scroll down for safeties. It’s a deep class for both cornerbacks and safeties. Exceptionally so.

Full Ratings available here:



Marshon Lattimore: Such an incredible talent. He has everything your looking for. He’s fluid, fast, with great anticipation and spacial recognition. In terms of pure talent he’s the best cornerback prospect I’ve seen in a long time. However, he’s battled hamstring injuries for years, and the demands of the NFL are a lot harsher than those of high school or college. I have less doubt about his ability to cover in the NFL than any other cornerback in the class, but can he stay on the field. It’s a major red flag, and one that would probably scare me away from taking him in the top six.

Marlon Humphrey: Incredible athlete. Very good in press coverage. His play weakens the further downfield he has to work. He has the Alabama disease where he loses his place when he gets spun around (seriously, watch the film. LSU worked him like that). His reaction time isn’t great, so he’s going to require some coaching/experience to get up to speed in the NFL.

Gareon Conley: Allegations just broke about a possible sexual assault. It won’t be resolved before the draft. He’s has elite top-end speed, paired with great explosion. He shut down some #1 receivers cold. However, others repeatedly worked him on the first cut. It was weird to watch. He had so much trust in his ability to catch up that he got lax/sloppy. Or maybe his reflexes are bollocks. Whatever the case may be, that’s not going to work in the NFL and will be the first thing his team will have to coach out of him. He’s going to fall in the draft. No idea how far.

Tre’Davious White: The most experienced cornerback in the draft. He’s a proven commodity who has handled every type of receiver/route. If he were a few inches taller, he’d have been a first round pick in last year’s draft. I love his tape and would be happy to see him end up in NY. Oh, one other thing: I know he can be a serviceable punt returner, but I hate risking injury on special teams. Their are plenty of fifth rounders who can hang around the bottom of your roster and return punts/kicks.

Teez Tabor: I admit this one is a bit of a personal taste for me. Tabor is a physical cornerback who is comfortable attacking the line of scrimmage. I was surprised at his poor bench press numbers from the combine. He’s had issues with missed tackles, but those were mostly from being juked or taking a bad angle. There’s little evidence that he has the range to handle deep coverage and may end up being moved to free safety. He’s a natural ballhawk so it would make some sense.

Sidney Jones: Coming off of an Achilles tear. He’ll likely start the season on the PUP list. It’s unclear what kind of player he’ll be when he comes back. He was solid in coverage, but lacked physicality, even by cornerback standards. I’d pass on him.

Adoree Jackson: Incredible film. Dude could fly. So good on special teams that I might override my better instincts and put him back there. He made so called “burners” look bad when they tried to beat him deep. The flaw? He’s not great at the day job. He doesn’t have great instincts or reaction speed. Sure, once he realizes where you are going, he’ll beat you there, but there is still that window in between where you are wide open. Can that be improved with better coaching/more practice? Yes, to a degree. Some of that is innate. On the other hand, he showed an ability and willingness to cover anyone on any route, inside or outside. He has outstanding potential and I might be willing to reach a bit for him if my staff felt they could correct his flaws.

Quincy Wilson: Dominated mediocre receivers. Got schooled by the greats. That makes for a tough NFL profile, but there is some good news. A lot of his problems were based off of poor technique, which can be fixed. The athletic gifts are all there. I expect him to be a quality cornerback in a few years, but I don’t see the upside to justify early selection.

Desmond King: Is it me, or all the top four-year cornerbacks under six feet tall? King is a hair short of 5-10. He might be the best pure nickel cornerback in the draft. How high you value that depends on your defensive scheme. Above average ball recognition skills leads to a fair amount of interceptions, so he might eventually have a future as a safety.

Chidobe Awuzie: I like him either as a zone cornerback or a safety. He’s athletic enough to play any position you ask of him, but his man-to-man skills are a bit lacking. In particularly, physical receivers push him around. He can beat less physical receivers with press coverage off the line, but he gets into trouble downfield if he misses the initial contact. Very prone to penalties, which is another reason I prefer him playing off in zone coverage.

Kevin King: A great combine may have moved him up a round. Nice speed, but didn’t show up on film. Actually, the film was kind of terrible, which made the combine a head scratcher. Is there a lot of untapped talent here, or is he just an athlete who isn’t great at football? And then there are the nagging injuries. He stayed healthy last season, but they’ve been an issue throughout his career. Finally, he’s a converted safety. He doesn’t really have the physicality to play safety in the NFL, so it’s going to be cornerback or bust for him. I’d pass.

Cameron Sutton: Small hands. Poor tackler. But his coverage skills… so good. He’s been described as a film rat and it shows. He’s very hard to beat with your initial move. He isn’t a good enough athlete to grab early, but he’ll be a solid #2 or nickel cornerback for years in the NFL.

Cordrea Tankersley: Looks the part, but the athleticism is lacking. Great at press coverage. Earned a reputation as a DPI machine. He was a key part on a great team, but… I don’t like what I see in terms of transitioning to the next level. It looks like he’ll go in the second round, which isn’t where I’d take him.

Fabian Moreau: Look, I want him to become a star for one reason and one reason only: So I can make jokes about The Island of Dr. Moreau. He actually has star potential, but the film was always disappointing. He’s coming off of pectoral surgery, and had a major foot injury in 2015. He might never be a productive NFL player. Or he’ll return healthy and provide first-round value well into the future. If healthy, he has tremendous power and explosiveness. A true boom-bust pick.


Jamal Adams: Prototype box safety. Handled tight ends, slot receivers, running backs. Doesn’t have elite speed, but that’s the only ding in an otherwise flawless package. Pretty much the highest floor imaginable. Erased a mediocre combine with an exceptional pro day. Great reaction time. After Garrett, he might be the least likely player in the draft to bust.

Malik Hooker: More upside than any defensive back in the draft, including Adams and Lattimore. He’s the free safety coaches dream of. Thing is, he only played one year of high school football and started one year in college. The questions about his commitment to football are serious. While he has great vision, he isn’t an elite athlete. Hooker is a conundrum. He reacts incredibly fast, which leads him to having great range. Will that translate to the NFL when the game speeds up? As much as I love his potential, the concerns are equally great. Also, coming off of a hip injury. Might not be 100% to start the season. Making the right call on Hooker could save a coach’s job. He’s going to go early, and might be a star, or a bust. My instinct: Look elsewhere. I don’t trust Hooker.

Jabrill Peppers: A safety/OLB/nickel hybrid. Those aren’t rare so much as this might be the first I’ve ever seen. Oh, and he can play running back or wildcat QB. I love his tackling skills and think he might be best as a strong safety. Then again, if he can handle the OLB job, that gives your defense a burst of speed that might not otherwise be available. His versatility is incredible and will test the coaching staff to get the most out of him.

Budda Baker: Jumps off the film. So many great moments. He had a mediocre combine and doesn’t really look the part of an NFL safety. He’s not a true ballhawk, but may be an excellent nickel/dime cornerback in an era where that’s part of the base defense. He’s going to be a nice value pick. The fact is, he’s the right player entering the league at the right time.

Obi Melifonwu: Best combine of any player in the draft. It was “Holy shit” all around. A true superfreak athlete. But the film… so many missed plays. If his film was as good as his combine, it would be him and Garrett going 1-2 in some order. Can NFL coaches fix him? Honestly, the ceiling here is so absurdly high that someone is going to roll the dice early. If he heard his name called late on day one I’d understand. The ceiling is that high. Lot of work left to do though.

Marcus Williams: A solid athlete with excellent film. Williams is a bit of a FS/CB hybrid. He might want to bulk up a bit to play safety, or stay at his current weight and work as a #2 CB. The knock on him is that he’s a poor tackler. I’m not sure that’s quite fair, but I agree some more power would pay off dividends, especially if he’s asked to attack the line of scrimmage. A solid player who should be a good pro.

Marcus Maye: What he lacks in coverage skills he makes up for with absurdly good tackling technique. He forces fumbles at an incredible rate because he has excellent hand-eye coordination. One you notice it on film you keep looking for it. Some guys hit like a true. He hits where it hurts. I love him in space. Probably better as a free safety than inside the box, but he’s versatile enough to handle either role.

Justin Evans: Hits like a truck. Not built like a truck. I have no idea how he’s stayed healthy, but I’d be worried the streak is due to end. He can play cornerback or safety. Not necessarily a great fit at either position. Has this weird trait where he’s really good at navigating past blockers, and then whiffing on the tackle. If coaches can get him to eschew the big hits and just focus on making the tackle his stats will improve. I don’t think I’d grab him in the first two rounds though.

Josh Jones: A true safety/linebacker hybrid. He doesn’t have the coverage skills to be a true safety, and isn’t quite strong enough to be a true OLB. Still, that’s not a problem. There’s lots of room now for a player who can cover tight ends and attack the line of scrimmage, and he can do both. I expect him to be a solid pro.