Football Outsiders has a rather mild opinion on tonight’s game:

Patriots -11.0 9804 10000 0

While ESPN has a spicy one:

Dolphins 54533 254124 0
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I had to update the baseline a bit. I might have to update it a tad more, but I’ll wait until January to see if that’s necessary.

Arizona State has taken the top spot from Duke. Kudos to you Sun Devils, you have surpassed the Blue Devils.

 

Rank School WAB
1 Arizona St. 2.88
2 Duke 2.61
3 Villanova 2.56
4 Texas A&M 2.22
5 Michigan St. 2.06
6 TCU 2.00
7 North Carolina 1.93
8 Wichita St. 1.86
9 Purdue 1.71
10 Florida St. 1.68
11 West Virginia 1.66
12 Tennessee 1.62
13 Virginia 1.62
14 Seton Hall 1.60
15 Xavier 1.49
16 Gonzaga 1.40
17 Miami FL 1.25
18 Oklahoma 1.07
19 Arkansas 1.05
20 Northern Iowa 0.95
21 Texas Tech 0.89
22 Loyola Chicago 0.86
23 Middle Tennessee 0.84
24 Syracuse 0.82
25 Nevada 0.81
26 Creighton 0.81
27 Georgia 0.79
28 Temple 0.76
29 Clemson 0.69
30 Missouri 0.66
31 Boise St. 0.65
32 Notre Dame 0.62
33 Kentucky 0.55
34 Towson 0.54
35 Mississippi St. 0.53
36 Butler 0.51
37 Baylor 0.49
38 Texas 0.48
39 Houston 0.47
40 Auburn 0.45
41 Arizona 0.36
42 Georgetown 0.27
43 Rhode Island 0.25
44 Minnesota 0.21
45 Virginia Tech 0.16
46 Stephen F. Austin 0.14
47 Albany 0.13
48 St. John’s 0.11
49 UCLA 0.09
50 Central Michigan 0.08
51 Florida 0.07
52 UC Santa Barbara 0.05
53 Kansas 0.04
54 Ohio St. 0.04
55 Cincinnati 0.02
56 North Carolina St. 0.01
57 BYU -0.00
58 Utah -0.03
59 Marquette -0.04
60 St. Bonaventure -0.05
61 Lamar -0.06
62 Portland St. -0.11
63 Wagner -0.11
64 Murray St. -0.14
65 Maryland -0.18
66 Louisville -0.21
67 Alabama -0.22
68 Iowa St. -0.27
69 Oklahoma St. -0.28
70 LSU -0.28
71 Valparaiso -0.30
72 Western Kentucky -0.31
73 Connecticut -0.32
74 UNLV -0.32
75 Colorado -0.33
76 Washington -0.33
77 South Carolina -0.33
78 Michigan -0.35
79 Boston College -0.42
80 Kansas St. -0.43
81 UCF -0.46
82 Georgia Southern -0.46
83 Fresno St. -0.48
84 USC -0.49
85 Penn St. -0.53
86 Wyoming -0.53
87 SMU -0.55
88 New Mexico St. -0.56
89 San Diego -0.57
90 Nebraska -0.58
91 Bradley -0.62
92 Ball St. -0.65
93 Jacksonville St. -0.68
94 UC Davis -0.69
95 Memphis -0.70
96 Saint Mary’s -0.70
97 College of Charleston -0.75
98 Evansville -0.76
99 Louisiana Lafayette -0.76
100 Vermont -0.79
101 Louisiana Tech -0.79
102 South Dakota St. -0.80
103 Lipscomb -0.85
104 UT Arlington -0.85
105 Tulane -0.85
106 South Dakota -0.87
107 Hawaii -0.90
108 Navy -0.94
109 Furman -0.95
110 Providence -0.95
111 Rutgers -1.03
112 Hofstra -1.05
113 Buffalo -1.08
114 Cal St. Fullerton -1.12
115 UNC Greensboro -1.14
116 Eastern Michigan -1.16
117 William & Mary -1.16
118 Western Illinois -1.16
119 Davidson -1.17
120 Washington St. -1.17
121 Old Dominion -1.18
122 San Diego St. -1.24
123 Akron -1.25
124 Northwestern -1.27
125 East Tennessee St. -1.32
126 Missouri St. -1.35
127 Grand Canyon -1.38
128 Incarnate Word -1.50
129 DePaul -1.51
130 Southern Utah -1.51
131 Oakland -1.52
132 Liberty -1.52
133 Penn -1.57
134 Idaho -1.59
135 Oregon -1.60
136 UNC Asheville -1.60
137 Utah Valley -1.62
138 Northern Kentucky -1.63
139 Charleston Southern -1.64
140 Tennessee St. -1.67
141 VCU -1.70
142 Southeastern Louisiana -1.74
143 Northern Colorado -1.76
144 Radford -1.78
145 Illinois -1.83
146 Mercer -1.83
147 George Washington -1.83
148 Indiana -1.85
149 Marshall -1.87
150 Florida Atlantic -1.88
151 Tennessee Tech -1.90
152 Wofford -1.92
153 Toledo -1.93
154 Georgia St. -1.96
155 Northeastern -1.98
156 San Francisco -1.99
157 Belmont -2.02
158 Montana -2.04
159 Oregon St. -2.08
160 St. Francis PA -2.08
161 Elon -2.08
162 Iona -2.10
163 Western Michigan -2.14
164 Ohio -2.16
165 Tulsa -2.18
166 Winthrop -2.22
167 Florida Gulf Coast -2.22
168 Mississippi -2.23
169 Bucknell -2.24
170 Robert Morris -2.25
171 Abilene Christian -2.26
172 Boston University -2.30
173 Loyola Marymount -2.31
174 Drake -2.34
175 UAB -2.35
176 North Dakota St. -2.37
177 Southern Illinois -2.39
178 Milwaukee -2.42
179 Yale -2.47
180 Cornell -2.47
181 Wisconsin -2.47
182 Sam Houston St. -2.48
183 Austin Peay -2.51
184 Lehigh -2.51
185 Army -2.51
186 Bowling Green -2.55
187 Miami OH -2.56
188 North Carolina A&T -2.57
189 Georgia Tech -2.57
190 Wake Forest -2.57
191 Saint Peter’s -2.63
192 UMBC -2.67
193 Duquesne -2.67
194 George Mason -2.67
195 Southern Miss -2.69
196 Central Arkansas -2.70
197 La Salle -2.72
198 Saint Joseph’s -2.72
199 Louisiana Monroe -2.72
200 Southeast Missouri St. -2.73
201 NJIT -2.73
202 Massachusetts -2.73
203 Rider -2.74
204 Wright St. -2.76
205 Colorado St. -2.78
206 Saint Louis -2.81
207 Pittsburgh -2.84
208 North Texas -2.89
209 Fairfield -2.89
210 Binghamton -2.91
211 Northern Illinois -2.92
212 Western Carolina -2.94
213 Montana St. -2.97
214 UTSA -2.99
215 Fort Wayne -3.01
216 Kent St. -3.02
217 New Orleans -3.02
218 Cal St. Bakersfield -3.03
219 Vanderbilt -3.03
220 Illinois St. -3.04
221 Sacred Heart -3.04
222 Central Connecticut -3.04
223 Dayton -3.06
224 Northwestern St. -3.10
225 Seattle -3.13
226 McNeese St. -3.15
227 The Citadel -3.15
228 North Florida -3.15
229 Monmouth -3.23
230 Iowa -3.25
231 Indiana St. -3.25
232 Long Beach St. -3.28
233 Nicholls St. -3.29
234 Green Bay -3.29
235 FIU -3.29
236 Brown -3.29
237 Weber St. -3.30
238 Coastal Carolina -3.31
239 Troy -3.31
240 UNC Wilmington -3.33
241 East Carolina -3.33
242 UT Rio Grande Valley -3.33
243 Prairie View A&M -3.35
244 Utah St. -3.37
245 Cal Poly -3.37
246 High Point -3.37
247 North Dakota -3.38
248 Presbyterian -3.39
249 Morehead St. -3.39
250 Stony Brook -3.39
251 Drexel -3.43
252 Niagara -3.44
253 Harvard -3.44
254 Dartmouth -3.45
255 South Alabama -3.52
256 Fairleigh Dickinson -3.56
257 Chattanooga -3.59
258 Princeton -3.59
259 VMI -3.62
260 Stanford -3.65
261 Texas Southern -3.67
262 Morgan St. -3.73
263 Denver -3.76
264 Colgate -3.76
265 SIU Edwardsville -3.77
266 Grambling St. -3.79
267 Idaho St. -3.79
268 Campbell -3.80
269 South Florida -3.81
270 Eastern Illinois -3.86
271 American -3.87
272 Fordham -3.87
273 California -3.87
274 Air Force -3.89
275 Manhattan -3.95
276 Portland -3.96
277 Stetson -4.11
278 Eastern Kentucky -4.11
279 IUPUI -4.13
280 UMass Lowell -4.15
281 Illinois Chicago -4.16
282 Detroit -4.17
283 Bethune Cookman -4.18
284 Delaware -4.19
285 Pacific -4.19
286 Eastern Washington -4.21
287 Appalachian St. -4.24
288 UTEP -4.24
289 Texas St. -4.25
290 Houston Baptist -4.29
291 Gardner Webb -4.29
292 UC Riverside -4.31
293 Holy Cross -4.32
294 Savannah St. -4.34
295 Mount St. Mary’s -4.37
296 Texas A&M Corpus Chris -4.40
297 Charlotte -4.49
298 Jackson St. -4.52
299 Canisius -4.53
300 New Mexico -4.53
301 Samford -4.55
302 Maryland Eastern Shore -4.56
303 Alcorn St. -4.58
304 Siena -4.61
305 Kennesaw St. -4.63
306 Alabama St. -4.64
307 Arkansas St. -4.67
308 Cleveland St. -4.71
309 UC Irvine -4.73
310 Southern -4.75
311 UMKC -4.85
312 Hampton -4.87
313 Northern Arizona -5.07
314 St. Francis NY -5.08
315 Pepperdine -5.10
316 Mississippi Valley St. -5.11
317 Richmond -5.22
318 Santa Clara -5.22
319 Longwood -5.27
320 Hartford -5.31
321 Rice -5.33
322 Sacramento St. -5.34
323 Tennessee Martin -5.35
324 North Carolina Central -5.38
325 Quinnipiac -5.57
326 Jacksonville -5.66
327 Florida A&M -5.67
328 Oral Roberts -5.74
329 San Jose St. -5.75
330 Alabama A&M -5.75
331 Little Rock -5.78
332 New Hampshire -5.87
333 South Carolina St. -5.91
334 LIU Brooklyn -5.94
335 Maine -5.96
336 Columbia -6.00
337 Loyola MD -6.00
338 Chicago St. -6.12
339 Lafayette -6.14
340 USC Upstate -6.17
341 Marist -6.21
342 Youngstown St. -6.22
343 Bryant -6.32
344 Nebraska Omaha -6.41
345 Cal St. Northridge -6.44
346 James Madison -6.64
347 Coppin St. -6.71
348 Norfolk St. -7.04
349 Howard -7.05
350 Delaware St. -7.48
351 Arkansas Pine Bluff -7.82

Football Outsiders:

Chargers -6.0 0 0 0
Jets -1.0 154099 149611 0
Cardinals 3.0 186697 174483 0
Seahawks 2.5 0 0 0
Rams -2.5 122431 118865 0

ESPN’s SPI:

Chargers 0 0 0
Broncos 304757 319995 0
Cardinals 38620 48275 0
Jaguars 0 0 0
Eagles 34642 33963 0

 

 

Football Outsiders is going big on the Texans:

Lions 0.0 20000 20000 0
Bengals -6.5 81190 77324 0
Bills -3.0 0 0 0
Cowboys -3.5 60498 59312 0
Chiefs -4.0 116938 109288 0
Panthers 2.5 69018 70398 0
Browns 3.5 32614 27875 0
Texans -3.0 209035 232029 0

But not as big as ESPN’s SPI:

Buccaneers 136480 124073 0
Bengals 28010 10984 0
Bills 115480 66751 0
Giants 191902 314720 0
Chiefs 127996 65977 0
Panthers 131707 159366 0
Packers 6566 4467 0
Texans 548206 468552 0

Current tabs:

Football Outsiders: $2,153,225

ESPN’s SPI: -$781,469

 

 

 

Texas A&M had a chance to land on the same tier as Duke, but lost a close game at Arizona.

The current #5 team in the country is 95th in WAB. It’s been a tough week for Florida.

Rank School WAB
1 Duke 3.60
2 Villanova 2.79
3 Texas A&M 2.53
4 Michigan St. 2.42
5 North Carolina 2.30
6 Virginia 2.04
7 Purdue 1.90
8 Arizona St. 1.85
9 TCU 1.83
10 Seton Hall 1.78
11 Tennessee 1.76
12 Florida St. 1.75
13 Xavier 1.69
14 West Virginia 1.69
15 Nevada 1.65
16 Wichita St. 1.49
17 Miami FL 1.47
18 Gonzaga 1.39
19 Texas Tech 1.14
20 Temple 1.12
21 Loyola Chicago 1.10
22 Syracuse 1.08
23 Northern Iowa 1.03
24 Kansas 1.02
25 Georgia 1.02
26 Missouri 1.01
27 Arkansas 1.01
28 Creighton 0.95
29 Minnesota 0.92
30 Clemson 0.90
31 St. John’s 0.90
32 Boise St. 0.88
33 Middle Tennessee 0.88
34 Baylor 0.81
35 Butler 0.80
36 UT Arlington 0.79
37 Texas 0.78
38 UCLA 0.76
39 Towson 0.74
40 Kentucky 0.70
41 Valparaiso 0.69
42 Western Kentucky 0.69
43 Mississippi St. 0.66
44 Notre Dame 0.65
45 Auburn 0.64
46 Rhode Island 0.61
47 Cincinnati 0.59
48 Oklahoma 0.58
49 Kansas St. 0.51
50 Washington 0.49
51 Virginia Tech 0.48
52 Houston 0.48
53 Alabama 0.46
54 Ohio St. 0.40
55 BYU 0.34
56 Georgetown 0.32
57 Arizona 0.30
58 Albany 0.28
59 Stephen F. Austin 0.28
60 USC 0.25
61 Oklahoma St. 0.24
62 North Carolina St. 0.24
63 Vermont 0.23
64 Central Michigan 0.18
65 Colorado 0.12
66 Providence 0.12
67 Nebraska 0.11
68 St. Bonaventure 0.10
69 UC Santa Barbara 0.10
70 Maryland 0.09
71 Utah 0.08
72 Lamar 0.04
73 Wagner 0.03
74 Portland St. -0.01
75 Washington St. -0.01
76 South Carolina -0.03
77 Connecticut -0.04
78 UCF -0.08
79 San Diego St. -0.12
80 Missouri St. -0.16
81 Wyoming -0.19
82 SMU -0.19
83 Georgia Southern -0.19
84 Penn St. -0.21
85 LSU -0.22
86 Louisville -0.22
87 Iowa St. -0.24
88 Lipscomb -0.25
89 UNLV -0.28
90 Marquette -0.29
91 Tulane -0.30
92 UC Davis -0.32
93 Bradley -0.33
94 South Dakota St. -0.33
95 Florida -0.33
96 San Diego -0.37
97 Murray St. -0.37
98 Michigan -0.41
99 Fresno St. -0.43
100 Louisiana Lafayette -0.47
101 Ball St. -0.48
102 Saint Mary’s -0.48
103 Memphis -0.50
104 Utah Valley -0.50
105 Jacksonville St. -0.50
106 William & Mary -0.55
107 Evansville -0.58
108 College of Charleston -0.59
109 Idaho -0.60
110 Louisiana Tech -0.61
111 New Mexico St. -0.61
112 Furman -0.66
113 Boston College -0.66
114 South Dakota -0.67
115 Hawaii -0.69
116 Buffalo -0.71
117 Toledo -0.73
118 Tennessee Tech -0.79
119 Old Dominion -0.81
120 Rutgers -0.88
121 Navy -0.90
122 Hofstra -0.91
123 Northwestern -0.93
124 Davidson -0.93
125 Eastern Michigan -0.98
126 Cal St. Fullerton -1.00
127 Illinois -1.00
128 UNC Greensboro -1.07
129 NJIT -1.09
130 East Tennessee St. -1.10
131 Western Illinois -1.10
132 Elon -1.15
133 Akron -1.16
134 Montana -1.16
135 George Washington -1.16
136 Oakland -1.17
137 Southern Utah -1.18
138 Milwaukee -1.20
139 Southern Illinois -1.20
140 VCU -1.21
141 Grand Canyon -1.27
142 Wisconsin -1.28
143 UNC Asheville -1.28
144 Indiana -1.29
145 La Salle -1.30
146 Liberty -1.34
147 Northern Kentucky -1.38
148 Charleston Southern -1.40
149 Southeastern Louisiana -1.41
150 Incarnate Word -1.44
151 Oregon -1.45
152 DePaul -1.45
153 Radford -1.46
154 Northern Colorado -1.48
155 Mississippi -1.49
156 Mercer -1.50
157 Yale -1.51
158 Rider -1.52
159 Tennessee St. -1.53
160 Belmont -1.58
161 Penn -1.61
162 Wofford -1.61
163 Florida Atlantic -1.64
164 UAB -1.71
165 Montana St. -1.72
166 Ohio -1.76
167 Army -1.77
168 Fort Wayne -1.79
169 Saint Louis -1.80
170 Illinois St. -1.80
171 Georgia St. -1.81
172 Bowling Green -1.81
173 UMBC -1.81
174 North Carolina A&T -1.85
175 Dayton -1.85
176 Bucknell -1.85
177 Northeastern -1.87
178 Winthrop -1.88
179 Oregon St. -1.88
180 Western Michigan -1.89
181 Marshall -1.89
182 Central Connecticut -1.92
183 Louisiana Monroe -1.93
184 Iona -1.94
185 Saint Joseph’s -1.96
186 Colorado St. -2.02
187 San Francisco -2.02
188 Kent St. -2.03
189 St. Francis PA -2.03
190 Drake -2.04
191 McNeese St. -2.07
192 Abilene Christian -2.08
193 Niagara -2.08
194 Loyola Marymount -2.10
195 North Dakota St. -2.11
196 Robert Morris -2.11
197 Boston University -2.12
198 Pittsburgh -2.13
199 Troy -2.16
200 North Dakota -2.16
201 Sam Houston St. -2.21
202 Cornell -2.21
203 Austin Peay -2.22
204 Lehigh -2.23
205 Cal Poly -2.28
206 Saint Peter’s -2.30
207 Georgia Tech -2.30
208 Miami OH -2.33
209 Tulsa -2.37
210 Weber St. -2.39
211 George Mason -2.41
212 Wake Forest -2.41
213 Utah St. -2.42
214 South Alabama -2.42
215 Florida Gulf Coast -2.45
216 Iowa -2.45
217 Central Arkansas -2.46
218 Eastern Washington -2.46
219 Seattle -2.46
220 UNC Wilmington -2.49
221 Western Carolina -2.53
222 Monmouth -2.53
223 North Texas -2.59
224 Southern Miss -2.60
225 Duquesne -2.61
226 Morgan St. -2.62
227 Massachusetts -2.62
228 Wright St. -2.63
229 Vanderbilt -2.64
230 Drexel -2.69
231 Coastal Carolina -2.69
232 Green Bay -2.69
233 Binghamton -2.72
234 Fairleigh Dickinson -2.72
235 Northern Illinois -2.73
236 UTSA -2.74
237 Cal St. Bakersfield -2.75
238 Air Force -2.76
239 Fairfield -2.77
240 Southeast Missouri St. -2.77
241 New Orleans -2.78
242 Sacred Heart -2.78
243 Grambling St. -2.81
244 North Florida -2.85
245 Northwestern St. -2.86
246 Prairie View A&M -2.86
247 Long Beach St. -2.93
248 The Citadel -2.95
249 Indiana St. -2.97
250 FIU -3.00
251 Detroit -3.00
252 Illinois Chicago -3.02
253 Colgate -3.03
254 Nicholls St. -3.04
255 Brown -3.07
256 Bethune Cookman -3.09
257 UT Rio Grande Valley -3.09
258 Houston Baptist -3.09
259 Harvard -3.10
260 Appalachian St. -3.12
261 High Point -3.12
262 UMass Lowell -3.14
263 Morehead St. -3.15
264 Texas St. -3.18
265 Presbyterian -3.20
266 East Carolina -3.20
267 Eastern Kentucky -3.21
268 Princeton -3.22
269 Maryland Eastern Shore -3.23
270 Texas Southern -3.26
271 Stony Brook -3.26
272 Mount St. Mary’s -3.26
273 Pacific -3.27
274 UC Irvine -3.28
275 Southern -3.31
276 New Mexico -3.32
277 Dartmouth -3.36
278 Stanford -3.36
279 Chattanooga -3.39
280 Charlotte -3.40
281 VMI -3.41
282 Siena -3.44
283 Delaware -3.44
284 Savannah St. -3.45
285 South Florida -3.50
286 SIU Edwardsville -3.51
287 Canisius -3.52
288 Denver -3.54
289 Eastern Illinois -3.58
290 Campbell -3.59
291 Jackson St. -3.61
292 Idaho St. -3.63
293 American -3.63
294 Gardner Webb -3.65
295 Fordham -3.70
296 Manhattan -3.71
297 Columbia -3.75
298 Alcorn St. -3.76
299 Portland -3.77
300 IUPUI -3.78
301 Samford -3.90
302 Pepperdine -3.95
303 UMKC -3.96
304 UTEP -3.99
305 Stetson -4.02
306 Hampton -4.04
307 St. Francis NY -4.07
308 Holy Cross -4.07
309 Northern Arizona -4.12
310 Santa Clara -4.12
311 UC Riverside -4.17
312 Texas A&M Corpus Chris -4.21
313 California -4.21
314 Longwood -4.23
315 Kennesaw St. -4.28
316 Alabama St. -4.29
317 North Carolina Central -4.30
318 Rice -4.32
319 Quinnipiac -4.33
320 Arkansas St. -4.40
321 Cleveland St. -4.45
322 San Jose St. -4.53
323 Oral Roberts -4.53
324 Sacramento St. -4.56
325 Mississippi Valley St. -4.62
326 Maine -4.70
327 Florida A&M -4.70
328 New Hampshire -4.73
329 South Carolina St. -4.78
330 Loyola MD -4.78
331 LIU Brooklyn -4.80
332 Little Rock -4.80
333 Richmond -4.85
334 Marist -4.88
335 USC Upstate -4.90
336 Lafayette -4.95
337 Tennessee Martin -5.05
338 Chicago St. -5.17
339 Nebraska Omaha -5.18
340 Hartford -5.19
341 Bryant -5.20
342 Howard -5.21
343 Cal St. Northridge -5.29
344 Jacksonville -5.31
345 Alabama A&M -5.36
346 James Madison -5.58
347 Youngstown St. -5.61
348 Coppin St. -5.71
349 Delaware St. -6.28
350 Norfolk St. -6.32
351 Arkansas Pine Bluff -6.76