As of when I am writing this I have no idea if PFF is up or down on the day. I’ll give a full update tomorrow.
For those of you who are curious, Chicago is known as the Second City because the first one burned down.
| Team | Line | Risked | To Win | Result |
| Rams | 0 | 21024 | 14302 | 0 |
| LAR-Chi | U51.5 | 8085 | 7092 | 0 |
That is a lot of faith in the Lions offense. We’ll see how that goes.
As of when I’m writing this I have no idea how the early games went. I’ll update for SNF or MNF.
| Team | Line | Risked | To Win | Result |
| Cin-SD | o48 | 49902 | 48448 | 0 |
| Broncos | 0 | 27450 | 16738 | 0 |
| Den-SF | o45 | 1528 | 1428 | 0 |
| Steelers | 0 | 22060 | 4654 | 0 |
| Pit-Oak | o51 | 16592 | 16758 | 0 |
| Lions | 0 | 53216 | 38011 | 0 |
| Det-Ariz | o40 | 48422 | 44020 | 0 |
| Eagles | 3.5 | 32138 | 28192 | 0 |
| Phi-Dal | O45.5 | 7960 | 7960 | 0 |
Let’s start at the beginning, early in the week. There’s going to be a lot to follow, so let me note some key points:
So, what happened when PFF learned the real spread:
Fascinating! Now the spread is a pick, but the moneyline is… odd. +140 does not go with a spread of -1.5. Also, note their total dropping, but staying 0.5 above market.
Welp! It’s a fascinating way to view the NFL. Let’s see how that’s doing for them:
| Current Tab | -$534,382.99 |
| % of Bankroll | -267.19% |
| Standard Dev | 395841 |
| Two-tailed Z | -1.35 |
Bayes wept.
| Team | Line | Risked | To Win | Result |
| Saints | 0 | 38749 | 9053 | 0 |
| NO-TB | u54 | 16040 | 14582 | 0 |
| Redskins | 3 | 21199 | 19098 | 0 |
| NYG-Was | O40.5 | 2858 | 2646 | 0 |
| Falcons | 4 | 18980 | 17255 | 0 |
| Atl-GB | O50.5 | 52986 | 55635 | 0 |
| Colts | 0 | 7929 | 13955 | 0 |
| Ind-Hou | O49.5 | 19939 | 19358 | 0 |
| Jets | 4 | 38966 | 36080 | 0 |
| NYJ-Buf | O37.5 | 2858 | 2646 | 0 |
| Panthers | 0 | 6603 | 6289 | 0 |
| Car-Cle | O47.5 | 13159 | 12776 | 0 |
| Patriots | 0 | 13931 | 3423 | 0 |
| NE-Mia | U48.5 | 27506 | 25005 | 0 |
| Chiefs | -6 | 44049 | 40412 | 0 |
| Bal-KC | O50.5 | 53485 | 55090 | 0 |
P.S. Huge wagers today. It appears I was too quick to judge their conservatism a while ago.
So long as the Jaguars score at least 16 points, PFF won’t lose both bets tonight:
| Team | Line | Risked | To Win | Result |
| Jaguars | 5.5 | 17352 | 17011 | 0 |
| Jax-Ten | O37.5 | 14005 | 14145 | 0 |
After last Sunday’s bloodbath a split looks mighty nice right now:
| Current Tab | -$531,176.79 |
| % of Bankroll | -265.59% |
| Standard Dev | 395207 |
| Two-tailed Z | -1.34 |
I find it interesting that the game lines say the Rams are clearly better than the Saints, but the futures markets are treating them as equals.
Both the futures and the weekly lines have the Pats slightly ahead of the Chiefs.
The #6 team in each conference is at least 0.8 wins ahead of #7. There is a pretty good shot that the top 12 teams here are our 12 playoff teams, and our top four are the four teams that earn byes. The Chargers and Texans are longshots to snag a bye. We’ll know a lot more in two weeks.
| Team | Market expected wins | Pythag |
| Los Angeles Rams | 14.16 | 0.7745 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 12.80 | 0.6997 |
| New Orleans Saints | 12.68 | 0.7074 |
| New England Patriots | 12.06 | 0.7109 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 11.34 | 0.6508 |
| Houston Texans | 11.34 | 0.5395 |
| Chicago Bears | 10.07 | 0.5971 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 9.92 | 0.6548 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 9.32 | 0.5317 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 9.20 | 0.6026 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 9.03 | 0.4752 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 8.90 | 0.5757 |
| Tennessee Titans | 8.40 | 0.4603 |
| Denver Broncos | 8.32 | 0.5090 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 8.06 | 0.5579 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 7.99 | 0.4734 |
| Carolina Panthers | 7.84 | 0.5471 |
| Miami Dolphins | 7.27 | 0.3063 |
| Washington Redskins | 7.00 | 0.2288 |
| Green Bay Packers | 6.92 | 0.5761 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 6.56 | 0.4183 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 6.35 | 0.4092 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 6.15 | 0.4643 |
| New York Giants | 6.12 | 0.4314 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 6.09 | 0.5289 |
| Cleveland Browns | 6.06 | 0.4019 |
| Detroit Lions | 5.86 | 0.4299 |
| Buffalo Bills | 5.57 | 0.2675 |
| New York Jets | 4.28 | 0.3176 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 4.04 | 0.3061 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 3.30 | 0.3610 |
| Oakland Raiders | 3.04 | 0.3050 |
PFF has some slight preference for the over, but not enough to pay the vig, so they passed on MNF. Perhaps taking a night off to lick their wounds was the right call as it was a brutal Sunday:
| Current Tab | -$531,176.79 |
| % of Bankroll | -265.59% |
| Standard Dev | 395207 |
| Two-tailed Z | -1.34 |
A solid afternoon brought PFF back over the -$500K barrier:
| Current Tab | -$480,343.39 |
| % of Bankroll | -240.17% |
| Standard Dev | 393569 |
| Two-tailed Z | -1.22 |
They’ll be trusting the Pittsburgh defense to keep the momentum going:
| Team | Line | Risked | To Win | Result |
| LAC-Pit | U52.5 | 25014 | 24766 | 0 |
| Steelers | -3 | 25819 | 23688 | 0 |
