Happy new year!
Football Outsiders is looking to reverse their fortunes by going HAM on the Rams:
| Rams | -2.5 | 218380 | 198527 | 0 |
They are currently down $557,115.
ESPN’s SPI is playing small on the 49ers:
| 49ers | 28319 | 38230 | 0 |
They are currently up $14,681.
The Giants will try to stave off an embarrassing 0-2 start. The Lions are hoping for an unexpected 2-0 start. Football Outsiders are hoping the Giants cover:
| Giants | -3.5 | 133800 | 133800 | 0 |
ESPN’s FPI would prefer the mild upset:
| Lions | 22717 | 33848 | 0 |
We last saw this matchup take place in the NFC Championship game. The Falcons romped there. Will they do so again. Football Outsiders hopes not:
| Packers | 2.5 | 32189 | 34120 | 0 |
ESPN’s FPI likes the Falcons to win, but so does the market, so they’re sitting this one out.
| Falcons | 0 | 0 | 0 |
As of the time of this writing I have no idea what happened in the early games. Football Outsiders will be rooting hard for the Rams and Cowboys in the afternoon games.
| Chargers | -4.5 | 67600 | 67600 | 0 |
| Jets | 14.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rams | -3.0 | 204400 | 204400 | 0 |
| Cowboys | -1.5 | 219054 | 206655 | 0 |
| Seahawks | 14.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
As for ESPN’s FPI, they’ll be happy to see the Raiders handle the Jets:
| Chargers | 84880 | 47419 | 0 |
| Raiders | 263050 | 35073 | 0 |
| Rams | 109440 | 84185 | 0 |
| Cowboys | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Seahawks | 63100 | 7888 | 0 |
We are going to see some major swings today. First, let’s start with Football Outsiders. They currently have a deficit of $233,992 after the Bengals loss. Please note, I corrected their Thursday night play with the line available at the time of their release.
| Bengals | -6.5 | 74648 | 70423 | -74648 |
| Jaguars | 2.5 | 30472 | 29584 | 0 |
| Ravens | -8.0 | 4930 | 4695 | 0 |
| Panthers | -7.5 | 57774 | 62974 | 0 |
| Patriots | -7.0 | 213980 | 228959 | 0 |
| Cardinals | -7.5 | 70046 | 76350 | 0 |
| Chiefs | -5.0 | 20920 | 19924 | 0 |
| Steelers | -6.5 | 180117 | 185520 | 0 |
| Buccaneers | -7.0 | 55770 | 53114 | 0 |
Of note is how much faith Football Outsiders has in the Patriots and Steelers.
ESPN’s FPI is less optimistic in both cases:
| Texans | 52216 | 112265 | 112265 | 0.3531 |
| Jaguars | 143400 | 143400 | 0 | 0.5717 |
| Ravens | 177366 | 55254 | 0 | 0.8046 |
| Panthers | 55700 | 19893 | 0 | 0.7515 |
| Saints | 156308 | 361072 | 0 | 0.4112 |
| Colts | 167543 | 425558 | 0 | 0.4027 |
| Chiefs | 168520 | 73912 | 0 | 0.7465 |
| Vikings | 116335 | 307124 | 0 | 0.3591 |
| Buccaneers | 93700 | 33464 | 0 | 0.7615 |
They’ll be looking for huge wins with the Saints, Vikings, and Colts. FPI is rather off market in the early games. It’s been working out for them so far as they are currently up $533,254.
These were all up before the season started for each previewed team, but there was still some editing work done. Here’s all the links in one place:
Start with the AFC East as it has the intro:
https://sethburn.wordpress.com/2017/09/05/2017-afc-east/
https://sethburn.wordpress.com/2017/09/06/2017-afc-north/
https://sethburn.wordpress.com/2017/09/06/2017-afc-south/
https://sethburn.wordpress.com/2017/09/06/2017-afc-west-afc-playoffs/
https://sethburn.wordpress.com/2017/09/09/2017-nfc-east-unedited/
https://sethburn.wordpress.com/2017/09/09/2017-nfc-north-unedited/
https://sethburn.wordpress.com/2017/09/09/2017-nfc-south-unedited/
https://sethburn.wordpress.com/2017/09/10/2017-nfc-west-unedited-playoffs-and-sb-lii/
As of this writing, edits for all but the NFC South are in. Those will be in shortly.
Enjoy the season!
Remember, the most important thing to the NFL is the health and safety of their players. Which is why they play Thursday night football games after playing on Sunday. Which is nuts. In any event, Football Outsiders has a mild opinion and ESPN’s FPI ended up with a strong one. Let’s start with Football Outsiders:
(Correction. Football Outsiders released their picks earlier in the day. I have updated the line with the correct Kelly play at the time)
| Bengals | -6.5 | 74648 | 70423 | 0 |
They are attempting to chip into a $159,344 deficit. As for ESPN’s FPI:
| Texans | 52216 | 112265 | 0 |
They are currently up $420,989 and can cross the $500k barrier with a win.
