| Name |
Position |
School |
Grade |
| Chase Young |
DE |
Ohio State |
96.6 |
| K’Lavon Chaisson |
DE |
LSU |
82.39 |
| A.J. Epenesa |
DE |
Iowa |
81.43 |
| Yetur Gross-Matos |
DE |
Penn State |
81.31 |
| Julian Okwara |
DE |
Notre Dame |
73.79 |
| Bradlee Anae |
DE |
Utah |
70.77 |
| Curtis Weaver |
DE |
Boise State |
69.51 |
| Jabari Zuniga |
DE |
Florida |
68.63 |
| Jonathan Greenard |
DE |
Florida |
64.05 |
| Darrell Taylor |
DE |
Tennessee |
64.02 |
As with the quarterback class, the defensive end class is fairly top-heavy, with the premium prospect effectively unavailable. Note: Defensive positions are fluid. Some defensive ends can play defensive tackle. Others can play outside linebacker.
Note that I cover pass rush vs. coverage vis-à-vis Chase Young vs. Jeff Okudah with the #2 overall pick.
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Chase Young: One of my models has Young as the next Lawrence Taylor. Young projects to be even better than his former teammate and defensive rookie of the year Nick Bosa. I rewatched the Clemson game to see what a bad game from Young looks like. Instead what I found was an offense building their entire gameplan around shutting Young down. That’s respect. His combination of size, athleticism, and reaction time is unique. His teammate cornerback Jeff Okudah is the most likely #3 pick. Given that, now seems like a good time to talk about the coverage vs. pass rush debate.
When game-planning if you feel like a cornerback is truly elite, you can simply not throw at him and play 10-10. That’s a bigger handicap than it sounds like as it reduces the space on the field you can attack.
If you’re facing an elite edge, you’d better have one of the best tackles in the game, or build your gameplan around shutting him down. That includes blocking help from tight ends, running backs (see, they matter!), and possibly guards. Even with that, they’ll still make some plays. This is a containment strategy, and one that the great pass-rushers get used to on a weekly basis.
Given a choice between the two, there aren’t many offensive coordinators that would choose to face the elite edge rusher. So why does some research suggest coverage > pass rush? Because that measures something other than elite cornerback play vs. elite pass rush performance. We’ve all heard the term coverage sacks. In a three step drop you’ll need to break through the line off the snap to get a sack non-coverage sack. In other words, if the initial read is open, it’s very difficult to sack the quarterback. That’s one of the reasons the short passing game has dramatically increased in popularity over the past few decades. In five and seven step drops the defense has a bit more time to get to the quarterback. One of the reasons EPA on downfield passes is greater than EPA on shorter passes is the former requires one thing to have already gone right: The offensive line held their initial blocks.
Last season the Patriots and 49ers defenses started the season on fire. Their pass rush numbers were great, but it wasn’t coming from the defensive line. Quarterbacks were holding the ball unusually long against both defenses, so the linemen had time to clean up. In short, neither defense had any pigeons or holes in the zone. Pass coverage is a holistic thing. If the offense has a good matchup, they can target it. If the defense has a good matchup, the quarterback will look elsewhere. Where things break down for the offense is when there are no weak links. So, would a defense be happy with a bunch of competent, but not-elite defensive backs? I suppose, but there are still darn good reasons to want an elite cornerback.
#1WR’s usually earn that title for a reason (New York Jets excepted). They pressure the defense and generally require a specific plan to handle. Sometimes defenses will shade the safeties towards them. Other times they’ll stick the #1CB on them wherever the #1WR lines up. Having an elite cornerback who can take a #1WR out of the game by themselves takes a lot of stress off the defense and forces the offense to turn to weaker options.
There’s another issue to discuss though. If the offensive line does their job, and the quarterback and wide receiver do theirs, good coverage still loses on the play. That’s part of the reason why “defense doesn’t matter” has seen some discussion. Obviously that’s an oversimplification. The underlying issue is that offensive performance is more determinative of the results than defensive performance. The defense can make the offense’s job harder, but if the throw is in the right place, ¯\_(ツ)_/¯.
Let’s bring this back to the topic at hand. Coverage vs. pass-rush. Good coverage won’t necessarily produce good results, especially when facing elite receivers. Pass coverage numbers fluctuate quite a bit for cornerbacks year-to-year. In fact, defensive performance overall is less predictive than offensive performance. The difference in levels of control over the result of the play is a big reason why.
I am very leery of defining coverage based on the results of a play. If a website were to declare that coverage > pass rush, I’d like their cornerback rankings to make a bit more sense before taking too much stock in their conclusions. Good coverage results are descriptive of good defense. If we want to separate the noise from the signal, I’d suggest we look at defenses that present no easy areas to attack.
To wrap this up, you need quality cornerback depth. Everyone on the field must be able to do their job. Sometimes that job means matching up against an elite receiver, so yes, elite cornerbacks matter a great deal. But elite defensive ends put a bigger strain on the offensive game plan and their resources on any given play. That’s one of the reasons why elite pass rushers break the bank in ways elite cornerbacks do not:
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/average/defense/
I would suggest that to build an elite defense, solid defensive backfield depth is a must, but that’s not an argument for elite cornerbacks over elite pass rushers. Mind you, Young is special, so this isn’t the general case. He’s the best player in this draft and should be the first non-quarterback off the board.
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K’Lavon Chaisson: There’s a pretty big gap between Young and the rest of the edge class. In fact, after Young this class is unusually weak. Chaisson played very fast on film. His athleticism shined. What we haven’t seen from him is power. The ability to detach from blockers is partly based on technique and partly based on raw strength. He needs to work on both. We also don’t know just how much of an athletic freak he is as he skipped the combine workouts and didn’t have a pro day. He didn’t have a long track record in college, so Chaisson is a bit of an unknown. Teams needs pass rushers, he’ll go high. I’d be skeptical here.
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A.J. Epenesa: I don’t know what to make of Espensa. His production at Iowa was excellent, but his film was not. He failed to impress with his athleticism, strength, or technique. Despite that, he snagged double-digit sacks the past two seasons. I will say he clearly understood his role and was rarely fooled or out of place. Unfortunately for Epenesa, his terrible combine backed up what we saw on film. He’s not athletic. I wouldn’t want to go anywhere near him in the top 50.
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Yetur Gross-Matos: I finally find a guy who’s film I like, and he has two red flags. I’ll get to those in a second. Gross-Matos was productive at Penn State, excelling with an outside speed rush. He was highly disruptive, able to get into the backfield and move the quarterback off the spot. However, there are issues: He was suspended at Penn State after the State College Police executed a warrant on the Office of Student Conduct. That’s an off-field issue and teams will have to weigh how concerned they are. The on field issue is his complete lack of tipped passes. One of the reasons they are correlated with NFL success is that they are a proxy for on-field awareness. Chris Jones helped the Chiefs win the Super Bowl with a pair of tipped passes late. Even so, I think I’d be comfortable taking Gross-Matos in the first round. The athletic burst is simply too tempting.
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Julian Okwara: His film suggests he might be relegated to being a third-down specialist. Opponents attacked him in the running game. Okwara was overly reliant on a speed-rush. If the offensive lineman got his hands on Okwara, that was usually it. Frankly, I’d pass on Okwara until early day three. His upside is simply too limited. He’s also coming off of tibula surgery.
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Bradlee Anae: Hugely productive at Utah. Very aggressive getting off on the snap. Sometimes too aggressive. He impressed me with his ability to work through traffic and run plays down. He’s not a premiere athlete. Even so, it’s hard to look past how effective he was in college. I’d be happy grabbing him day two.
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Curtis Weaver: Dominant at Boise State. Sometimes you see a guy and feel like he can handle a step up in competition. Other times you feel like this guy is a scrub crusher. I felt the latter about Weaver. His effort was good. He fought hard for his sacks. I’m just not sold he has the athleticism or strength to get it done at the NFL level. I wouldn’t roll the dice on him until the third round.
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Jabari Zuniga: Flashed potentially elite athletic traits at Florida. Strong combine. The biggest issue is that we’re still waiting for someone to teach Zuniga how to play football. It’s amazing how unrefined his technique is. There’s also the lack of field awareness. It’s pretty frustrating, and I’m just a neutral observer. Zuniga’s ceiling is very high. He explodes off the screen. I’m taking him day two so long as my coaches are confident they know how to polish his game.
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Jonathan Greenard: Succeeded at Louisville. Transferred to Florida. Succeed in the SEC. Deep set of pass rush moves. Excellent field awareness. Everything I’ve seen from Greenard suggests he’ll be able to succeed at the next level. I’d be happy to snag him in the second round.
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Darrell Taylor: It’s been a long dry run for Tennessee, but that’s not Taylor’s fault. He did his job. His explosiveness off the snap is impressive. He wins more with his legs than his hands. That’s something NFL coaches and weight trainers will work on with him. He’s a solid day two prospect.
