Happy new year!

Football Outsiders is looking to reverse their fortunes by going HAM on the Rams:

Rams -2.5 218380 198527 0

They are currently down $557,115.

ESPN’s SPI is playing small on the 49ers:

49ers 28319 38230 0

They are currently up $14,681.

 

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As of the time of this writing I have no idea what happened in the early games. Football Outsiders will be rooting hard for the Rams and Cowboys in the afternoon games.

Chargers -4.5 67600 67600 0
Jets 14.0 0 0 0
Rams -3.0 204400 204400 0
Cowboys -1.5 219054 206655 0
Seahawks 14.0 0 0 0

As for ESPN’s FPI, they’ll be happy to see the Raiders handle the Jets:

Chargers 84880 47419 0
Raiders 263050 35073 0
Rams 109440 84185 0
Cowboys 0 0 0
Seahawks 63100 7888 0

 

 

We are going to see some major swings today. First, let’s start with Football Outsiders. They currently have a deficit of $233,992 after the Bengals loss. Please note, I corrected their Thursday night play with the line available at the time of their release.

Bengals -6.5 74648 70423 -74648
Jaguars 2.5 30472 29584 0
Ravens -8.0 4930 4695 0
Panthers -7.5 57774 62974 0
Patriots -7.0 213980 228959 0
Cardinals -7.5 70046 76350 0
Chiefs -5.0 20920 19924 0
Steelers -6.5 180117 185520 0
Buccaneers -7.0 55770 53114 0

Of note is how much faith Football Outsiders has in the Patriots and Steelers.

ESPN’s FPI is less optimistic in both cases:

Texans 52216 112265 112265 0.3531
Jaguars 143400 143400 0 0.5717
Ravens 177366 55254 0 0.8046
Panthers 55700 19893 0 0.7515
Saints 156308 361072 0 0.4112
Colts 167543 425558 0 0.4027
Chiefs 168520 73912 0 0.7465
Vikings 116335 307124 0 0.3591
Buccaneers 93700 33464 0 0.7615

They’ll be looking for huge wins with the Saints, Vikings, and Colts. FPI is rather off market in the early games. It’s been working out for them so far as they are currently up $533,254.

 

 

These were all up before the season started for each previewed team, but there was still some editing work done. Here’s all the links in one place:

Start with the AFC East as it has the intro:

https://sethburn.wordpress.com/2017/09/05/2017-afc-east/

https://sethburn.wordpress.com/2017/09/06/2017-afc-north/

https://sethburn.wordpress.com/2017/09/06/2017-afc-south/

https://sethburn.wordpress.com/2017/09/06/2017-afc-west-afc-playoffs/

https://sethburn.wordpress.com/2017/09/09/2017-nfc-east-unedited/

https://sethburn.wordpress.com/2017/09/09/2017-nfc-north-unedited/

https://sethburn.wordpress.com/2017/09/09/2017-nfc-south-unedited/

https://sethburn.wordpress.com/2017/09/10/2017-nfc-west-unedited-playoffs-and-sb-lii/

 

As of this writing, edits for all but the NFC South are in. Those will be in shortly.

Enjoy the season!

Remember, the most important thing to the NFL is the health and safety of their players. Which is why they play Thursday night football games after playing on Sunday. Which is nuts. In any event, Football Outsiders has a mild opinion and ESPN’s FPI ended up with a strong one. Let’s start with Football Outsiders:

(Correction. Football Outsiders released their picks earlier in the day. I have updated the line with the correct Kelly play at the time)

Bengals -6.5 74648 70423 0

They are attempting to chip into a $159,344 deficit. As for ESPN’s FPI:

Texans 52216 112265 0

They are currently up $420,989 and can cross the $500k barrier with a win.