As of when I am writing this I have no idea if PFF is up or down on the day. I’ll give a full update tomorrow.

For those of you who are curious, Chicago is known as the Second City because the first one burned down.

Team Line Risked To Win Result
Rams 0 21024 14302 0
LAR-Chi U51.5 8085 7092 0
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That is a lot of faith in the Lions offense. We’ll see how that goes.

As of when I’m writing this I have no idea how the early games went. I’ll update for SNF or MNF.

Team Line Risked To Win Result
Cin-SD o48 49902 48448 0
Broncos 0 27450 16738 0
Den-SF o45 1528 1428 0
Steelers 0 22060 4654 0
Pit-Oak o51 16592 16758 0
Lions 0 53216 38011 0
Det-Ariz o40 48422 44020 0
Eagles 3.5 32138 28192 0
Phi-Dal O45.5 7960 7960 0

NYG-Was

Let’s start at the beginning, early in the week. There’s going to be a lot to follow, so let me note some key points:

  1. The market moneyline was accurate at the time. The spread was NYG -3.5, not Wash -1.5. The O/U was 41.
  2. Amazingly, PFF’s internal spread and moneyline were compatible with each other. Kudos for that.
  3. No shit +160 was a pick when you thought the market made you a 1.5 point favorite.

So, what happened when PFF learned the real spread:

NYC-Was2

Fascinating! Now the spread is a pick, but the moneyline is… odd. +140 does not go with a spread of -1.5. Also, note their total dropping, but staying 0.5 above market.

NYG-Was3

Welp! It’s a fascinating way to view the NFL. Let’s see how that’s doing for them:

Current Tab -$534,382.99
% of Bankroll -267.19%
Standard Dev 395841
Two-tailed Z -1.35

Bayes wept.

Team Line Risked To Win Result
Saints 0 38749 9053 0
NO-TB u54 16040 14582 0
Redskins 3 21199 19098 0
NYG-Was O40.5 2858 2646 0
Falcons 4 18980 17255 0
Atl-GB O50.5 52986 55635 0
Colts 0 7929 13955 0
Ind-Hou O49.5 19939 19358 0
Jets 4 38966 36080 0
NYJ-Buf O37.5 2858 2646 0
Panthers 0 6603 6289 0
Car-Cle O47.5 13159 12776 0
Patriots 0 13931 3423 0
NE-Mia U48.5 27506 25005 0
Chiefs -6 44049 40412 0
Bal-KC O50.5 53485 55090 0

P.S. Huge wagers today. It appears I was too quick to judge their conservatism a while ago.

So long as the Jaguars score at least 16 points, PFF won’t lose both bets tonight:

Team Line Risked To Win Result
Jaguars 5.5 17352 17011 0
Jax-Ten O37.5 14005 14145 0

After last Sunday’s bloodbath a split looks mighty nice right now:

Current Tab -$531,176.79
% of Bankroll -265.59%
Standard Dev 395207
Two-tailed Z -1.34

 

I find it interesting that the game lines say the Rams are clearly better than the Saints, but the futures markets are treating them as equals.

Both the futures and the weekly lines have the Pats slightly ahead of the Chiefs.

The #6 team in each conference is at least 0.8 wins ahead of #7. There is a pretty good shot that the top 12 teams here are our 12 playoff teams, and our top four are the four teams that earn byes. The Chargers and Texans are longshots to snag a bye. We’ll know a lot more in two weeks.

Team Market expected wins Pythag
Los Angeles Rams 14.16 0.7745
Kansas City Chiefs 12.80 0.6997
New Orleans Saints 12.68 0.7074
New England Patriots 12.06 0.7109
Los Angeles Chargers 11.34 0.6508
Houston Texans 11.34 0.5395
Chicago Bears 10.07 0.5971
Pittsburgh Steelers 9.92 0.6548
Seattle Seahawks 9.32 0.5317
Baltimore Ravens 9.20 0.6026
Dallas Cowboys 9.03 0.4752
Minnesota Vikings 8.90 0.5757
Tennessee Titans 8.40 0.4603
Denver Broncos 8.32 0.5090
Philadelphia Eagles 8.06 0.5579
Indianapolis Colts 7.99 0.4734
Carolina Panthers 7.84 0.5471
Miami Dolphins 7.27 0.3063
Washington Redskins 7.00 0.2288
Green Bay Packers 6.92 0.5761
Cincinnati Bengals 6.56 0.4183
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6.35 0.4092
Jacksonville Jaguars 6.15 0.4643
New York Giants 6.12 0.4314
Atlanta Falcons 6.09 0.5289
Cleveland Browns 6.06 0.4019
Detroit Lions 5.86 0.4299
Buffalo Bills 5.57 0.2675
New York Jets 4.28 0.3176
Arizona Cardinals 4.04 0.3061
San Francisco 49ers 3.30 0.3610
Oakland Raiders 3.04 0.3050

PFF has some slight preference for the over, but not enough to pay the vig, so they passed on MNF. Perhaps taking a night off to lick their wounds was the right call as it was a brutal Sunday:

Current Tab -$531,176.79
% of Bankroll -265.59%
Standard Dev 395207
Two-tailed Z -1.34

 

 

 

A solid afternoon brought PFF back over the -$500K barrier:

Current Tab -$480,343.39
% of Bankroll -240.17%
Standard Dev 393569
Two-tailed Z -1.22

They’ll be trusting the Pittsburgh defense to keep the momentum going:

Team Line Risked To Win Result
LAC-Pit U52.5 25014 24766 0
Steelers -3 25819 23688 0