Football Outsiders ended up on the Colts:

Colts 7.5 19280 17852 0

While ESPN is going HAM on the Titans:

Titans 286665 83091 0

FO is down $765,542. ESPN is down $191,218


They’ve propelled themselves from the red to the black as they are now up $180,933 (Baltimore pending). (Oops. The Ravens lost and ESPN is now down $213,007 on the season.)

They’ll have some big swings this afternoon:

Jaguars 470640 435778 0
Cardinals 7915 9656 0
Chiefs 252935 133828 0
Raiders 59750 39833 0

Football Outsiders has had a good morning as well and are now only down $402,683.

Jaguars -2.5 181441 160567 0
Buccaneers -2.0 175285 166938 0
Chiefs -4.0 15600 13684 0
Raiders -3.5 85505 89780 0



ESPN’s SPI is currently down $401,179. If that seems like a lot, I should note they are risking more than that on the Texans today:

Texans 470670 142627 0
Patriots 114440 27248 0
Dolphins 24476 159584 0
Lions 2147 4530 0
Vikings 137714 192800 0
Ravens 393940 183228 0
Redskins 310000 62000 0

They have some strong opinions in favor of the Redskins, Ravens, and Texans.

Football Outsiders generally attempts to avoid having such strong opinions:

Texans -10.0 119447 126614 0
Jets 9.5 61720 56109 0
Dolphins 11.5 0 0 0
Lions 6.0 11962 10493 0
Vikings 3.0 210800 210800 0
Ravens -6.5 105342 103276 0
Redskins -10.5 83765 87116 0

They are currently down $607,099.




The top of the NFC looks like Green Bay, Seattle, and Atlanta, but all of then look beatable. Carolina or Philadelphia could end up playing their way to the #1 seed. Football Outsiders is backing the Eagles:

Eagles 3.5 184273 169058 0

They are currently down $776,157.

ESPN’s SPI is also on the Eagles:

Eagles 13648 18016 0

They are currently down $419,195

I’ve been tracking Football Outsiders for the past three years, and ESPN’s SPI for this season. However, there are other NFL ratings systems and I wanted to take a look at a few of them as well. Let’s start with the granddaddy of them all, Jeff Sagarin:

Here we see the Patriots 2.70 points clear of the field. Given their performance on the field this season, that suggests some fairly strong Bayesian priors. Chiefs are in second, which is as low as they’ll go in any of these ratings systems. In the NFC the Packers are 1.47 points ahead of the Falcons. Next up, Massey:

Here we have the Chiefs 1.68 points above the second-place Patriots. In the NFC, the Falcons are 3.16 points ahead of the Packers. Here we see a clear top three, with reasonable gaps between each, and then a sizable from the Falcons to the Broncos. How about ESPN’s SPI?

Here we have the Chiefs 1.6 points ahead of the Patriots. The Packers are a half point ahead of the Seahawks, who in turn are a half point ahead of the Falcons. What about a market based approach?

That’s Michael Beuoy’s inpredictable. By his measure of the market, the Patriots are #1, 0.9 points ahead of the Chiefs. In the NFC the Packers are 0.3 points ahead of the Falcons, who are 0.4 points ahead of the Seahawks. Finally, we have Football Outsiders. Their predictive rating is DAVE:

They have the Chiefs on top, ahead of Steelers. In the NFC we have the Eagles ahead of the Redskins. The Patriots, who are no worse than 2nd in any of the other ratings systems, are 13th here. The Falcons are only slightly better, sitting in 11th place. The Jaguars are 5th. It’s an interesting system and it suggests they are using fairly week Bayesian priors.

While the DAVE ratings aren’t specifically designed in terms of points, I have a rough translation, and here is an average of all five ratings systems:

Kansas City Chiefs 7.38
New England Patriots 6.46
Green Bay Packers 4.66
Atlanta Falcons 4.48
Philadelphia Eagles 3.66
Seattle Seahawks 3.36
Pittsburgh Steelers 3.30
Denver Broncos 2.81
Carolina Panthers 2.75
New Orleans Saints 2.29
Dallas Cowboys 1.69
Washington Redskins 1.63
Detroit Lions 1.57
Jacksonville Jaguars 1.46
Minnesota Vikings 1.13
Houston Texans 0.97
Oakland Raiders 0.74
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0.61
Buffalo Bills 0.56
Cincinnati Bengals -0.07
Baltimore Ravens -0.12
Los Angeles Rams -0.63
Los Angeles Chargers -1.63
Tennessee Titans -1.72
New York Giants -2.39
Miami Dolphins -4.05
Arizona Cardinals -4.12
Chicago Bears -6.10
New York Jets -6.27
Indianapolis Colts -7.21
San Francisco 49ers -7.47
Cleveland Browns -9.69

By the way, if you want to have some fun, take a look at where the Rams stand in various systems. Quite the shibboleth. Also, the market doesn’t just have the Patriots power rating ahead of the Chiefs. It also has them favored to win the AFC, which suggests that the gap between the expected January power level of the Patriots and Chiefs is larger than current market power ratings suggest.