Just looking at these numbers makes me want to cry. I’m honestly not sure what is worse: The four AFC Championships the Jets have lost in my lifetime, or the win that put Trevor Lawrence out of reach. He’s the prize of the class and Zach Wilson is not a close second.

Kyle Pitts looks outstanding, but I’d understand if Ja’Marr Chase is viewed as the safer choice at the top of the draft.

Penei Sewell has received some flack for short arms, but some of the best offensive linemen in NFL history had similar length. It shouldn’t be a major concern.

DeVonta Smith has received some flack for his weight. Marvin Harrison’s playing weight for most of his career wasn’t much heavier than what Smith currently weighs. Smith will bulk up a bit and should be able to handle NFL contact.

As for Quarterbacks Zach Wilson and Justin Fields, while their overall grades are quite similar, they have fairly different strengths and weaknesses. I’m actually quite concerned by how poorly Wilson faired against elite competition. I view Fields as the higher upside choice. I don’t want to refer to either as the “safer” choice, since there are no “safe” options after Lawrence (and even he might end up being a bust).

I find Trey Lance fairly intriguing and it’s unfortunate he didn’t get to face tougher competition over his career.

Mac Jones did a fine job playing within himself in the confines (and context) of the Crimson Tide offense. He made good decisions and was reasonably accurate. Having said that, unlike Burrow, they won with him, not because of him. I could understand him slipping into the top 10. I can’t see him going third overall to the 49ers. His raw skills simply don’t merit that.

I’ll start doing writeups for the top players in each positional group next week. Also, defensive positions are pretty fluid these days and I’ll try to provide some insight into how certain players can be used in various defensive systems.

RankNameSchoolPositionGrade
1Trevor LawrenceClemsonQB98.16
2Kyle PittsFloridaTE93.85
3Ja’Marr ChaseLSUWR93.26
4Penei SewellOregonOT92.47
5DeVonta SmithAlabamaWR92.02
6Patrick Surtain IIAlabamaCB90.06
7Jaylen WaddleAlabamaWR88.69
8Micah ParsonsPenn StateILB87.60
9Rashawn SlaterNorthwesternOT86.11
10Zach WilsonBYUQB85.81
11Justin FieldsOhio StateQB85.08
12Jeremiah Owusu-KoramoahNotre DameOLB84.51
13Jaycee HornSouth CarolinaCB83.83
14Najee HarrisAlabamaRB83.16
15Caleb FarleyVirginia TechCB82.67
16Zaven CollinsTulsaOLB82.36
17Christian BarmoreAlabamaDL82.01
18Christian DarrisawVirginia TechOT81.73
19Azeez OjulariGeorgiaEDGE81.57
20Travis EtienneClemsonRB81.15
21Trey LanceNorth Dakota StateQB80.46
22Gregory RousseauMiami (FL)EDGE80.23
23Alijah Vera-TuckerUSCOG79.75
24Kwity PayeMichiganEDGE79.59
25Trevon MoehrigTCUS79.38
26Javonte WilliamsNorth CarolinaRB78.68
27Jaelan PhillipsMiami (FL)EDGE78.57
28Rashod BatemanMinnesotaWR78.47
29Teven JenkinsOklahoma StateOT78.39
30Mac JonesAlabamaQB77.35
31Greg Newsome IINorthwesternCB76.92
32Creed HumphreyOklahomaC76.74
33Nick BoltonMissouriILB76.70
34Jayson OwehPenn StateEDGE76.52
35Levi OnwuzurikeWashingtonDL76.14
36Kadarius ToneyFloridaWR75.86
37Wyatt DavisOhio StateOG75.59
38Liam EichenbergNotre DameOT75.44
39Pat FreiermuthPenn StateTE75.42
40Jalen MayfieldMichiganOT74.61
41Terrace Marshall Jr.LSUWR74.59
42Eric StokesGeorgiaCB74.57
43Rondale MoorePurdueWR74.52
44Carlos Basham Jr.Wake ForestDE74.41
45Jevon HollandOregonS74.35
46Asante Samuel Jr.Florida StateCB74.27
47Tyson CampbellGeorgiaCB74.21
48Alex LeatherwoodAlabamaOT74.07
49Samuel CosmiTexasOT73.56
50Dillon RadunzNorth Dakota StateOT73.23
51Joseph OssaiTexasEDGE73.03
52Elijah MoldenWashingtonCB72.75
53Dylan MosesAlabamaILB72.58
54Daviyon NixonIowaDL72.55
55Quinn MeinerzUW-WhitewaterC72.25
56Trey SmithTennesseeOG71.95
57Tylan WallaceOklahoma StateWR71.43
58Josh MyersOhio StateC71.09
59Joe TryonWashingtonEDGE71.07
60Andre CiscoSyracuseS71.06
61Aaron RobinsonUCFCB71.05
62Ronnie PerkinsOklahomaOLB70.82
63Elijah MooreOle MissWR70.64
64Nico CollinsMichiganWR70.56
65Jabril CoxLSUOLB70.47
66Jamin DavisKentuckyILB70.22
67Landon DickersonAlabamaC70.02
68Chazz SurrattNorth CarolinaILB69.74
69Jay TufeleUSCDL69.71
70Aaron BanksNotre DameOG69.57
71Richie GrantUCFS69.44
72Ifeatu MelifonwuSyracuseCB69.35
73Michael CarterNorth CarolinaRB69.05
74D’Wayne EskridgeWestern MichiganWR68.90
75Tutu AtwellLouisvilleWR68.82
76Jackson CarmanClemsonOG68.49
77Hunter LongBoston CollegeTE68.45
78Walker LittleStanfordOT68.33
79Alim McNeillNorth Carolina StateDL67.61
80Brevin JordanMiami (FL)TE67.47
81Patrick Jones IIPittEDGE67.40
82Amon-Ra St. BrownUSCWR66.93
83James HudsonCincinnatiOT66.90
84Baron BrowningOhio StateILB66.86
85Shaun WadeOhio StateCB66.72
86Rashad WeaverPittEDGE66.58
87Chuba HubbardOklahoma StateRB66.51
88Kyle TraskFloridaQB66.28
89Kenneth GainwellMemphisRB66.28
90Dayo OdeyingboVanderbiltDL65.81
91Payton TurnerHoustonEDGE65.63
92Kendrick GreenIllinoisOG65.43
93Tyler ShelvinLSUDL65.41
94Hamsah NasirildeenFlorida StateS64.90
95Marvin WilsonFlorida StateDL64.76
96Paulson AdeboStanfordCB64.74
97Kellen MondTexas A&MQB64.69
98Ar’Darius WashingtonTCUS64.65
99Richard LeCounte IIIGeorgiaS64.25
100Osa OdighizuwaUCLADL64.15
101Dyami BrownNorth CarolinaWR63.79
102Tommy TogiaiOhio StateDL63.67
103Monty RiceGeorgiaILB63.33
104Davis MillsStanfordQB63.25
105Cam McGroneMichiganILB62.98
106Trey SermonOhio StateRB62.49
107Tommy TrembleNotre DameTE62.43
108Shi SmithSouth CarolinaWR62.41
109Deonte BrownAlabamaOG62.30
110Sage SurrattWake ForestWR62.23
111Seth WilliamsAuburnWR62.10
112D’Ante SmithEast CarolinaOT61.96
113Spencer K. BrownNorthern IowaOT61.77
114Kary Vincent Jr.LSUCB61.16
115Talanoa HufangaUSCS61.14
116Pete WernerOhio StateILB60.48
117Caden SternsTexasS60.35
118Kelvin JosephKentuckyCB60.26
119Marquez StevensonHoustonWR60.20
120Tre’ McKittyGeorgiaTE59.97
121Trey HillGeorgiaC59.45
122Jaylen TwymanPittDL59.42
123Ben ClevelandGeorgiaOG59.03
124Chris Rumph IIDukeEDGE58.86
125Benjamin St-JusteMinnesotaCB58.86
126Ambry ThomasMichiganCB58.81
127Ernest JonesSouth CarolinaILB58.51
128Jamien SherwoodAuburnS58.49
129Amari RodgersClemsonWR58.41
130D.J. DanielGeorgiaCB58.19
131Demetric FeltonUCLARB58.11
132Trill WilliamsSyracuseFS58.03
133Kylin HillMississippi StateRB57.93
134Larry Rountree IIIMissouriRB57.64
135Adetokunbo OgundejiNotre DameEDGE57.59
136Paris FordPittsburghS57.52
137Marlon TuipulotuUSCDL57.11
138Drew DalmanStanfordC57.05
139Jack AndersonTexas TechOG57.03
140Tamorrion TerryFlorida StateWR56.93
141Jordan SmithUABEDGE56.88
142Jaylon MooreWestern MichiganOT56.81
143Anthony SchwartzAuburnWR56.69
144Marco WilsonFloridaCB56.63
145Damar HamlinPittS56.62
146Frank DarbyArizona StateWR56.52
147K.J. BrittAuburnILB56.43
148Tyler VaughnsUSCWR56.43
149Quincy RocheMiami (FL)EDGE56.34
150Tommy DoyleMiami (OH)OT56.30
151Tony PoljanVirginiaTE56.20
152Rhamondre StevensonOklahomaRB56.03
153Tre BrownOklahomaCB56.02
154Robert RochellCentral ArkansasCB55.97
155Shawn DavisFloridaS55.77
156Milton WilliamsLouisiana TechDL55.76
157JaCoby StevensLSUS55.70
158Robert HainseyNotre DameOT55.65
159Brady ChristensenBYUOT55.60
160Javian HawkinsLouisvilleRB55.48
161Shakur BrownMichigan StateCB55.47
162Buddy JohnsonTexas A&MILB55.45
163Khalil HerbertVirginia TechRB55.43
164Elerson SmithNorthern IowaEDGE55.32
165Bobby Brown IIITexas A&MDL55.08
166Divine DeabloVirginia TechS55.00
167David MooreGrambling StateOG54.98
168Jamie NewmanGeorgiaQB54.71
169Ihmir Smith-MarsetteIowaWR54.71
170Jermar JeffersonOregon StateRB54.57
171Cade JohnsonSouth Dakota StateWR54.56
172Royce NewmanOle MissOG54.52
173Israel MukuamuSouth CarolinaCB54.52
174Adrian EalyOklahomaOT54.35
175Shaka ToneyPenn StateEDGE54.17
176Sadarius HutchersonSouth CarolinaOG54.15
177Jaelon DardenNorth TexasWR54.09
178Josh PalmerTennesseeWR54.02
179Dan Moore Jr.Texas A&MOT53.91
180Deommodore LenoirOregonCB53.80
181Khyiris TongaBYUDL53.46
182Malcolm KoonceBuffaloEDGE53.19
183Kayode AwosikaBuffaloOT52.87
184Tyree GillespieMissouriS52.82
185Victor DimukejeDukeEDGE52.79
186Keith TaylorWashingtonCB52.68
187James WigginsCincinnatiS52.59
188Alaric JacksonIowaOT52.54
189Kenny YeboahOle MissTE52.47
190Bryan MillsNorth Carolina CentralCB52.44
191Charles SnowdenVirginiaOLB52.38
192Tarron JacksonCoastal CarolinaEDGE52.26
193Camryn BynumCalCB52.18
194Garret WallowTCUOLB52.11
195Jamar JohnsonIndianaS52.10
196Michal MenetPenn StateC52.00
197Dez FitzpatrickLouisvilleWR51.89
198Michael Carter IIDukeCB51.87
199Rodarius WilliamsOklahoma StateCB51.85
200Brenden JaimesNebraskaOT51.66
201William Bradley-KingBaylorEDGE51.61
202Jaret PattersonBuffaloRB51.55
203Cole Van LanenWisconsinOT51.49
204Cameron SampleTulaneEDGE51.49
205Chris EvansMichiganRB51.40
206Simi FehokoStanfordWR51.37
207Chauncey GolstonIowaDL51.32
208Naquan JonesMichigan StateDL51.30
209Olaijah GriffinUSCCB50.83
210Cornell PowellClemsonWR50.53
211Austin WatkinsUABWR50.47
212Daelin HayesNotre DameEDGE50.40
213Darius StillsWest VirginiaDL50.23
214Darren HallSan Diego StateCB50.06
215Mark WebbGeorgiaS49.87
216Bryce ThompsonTennesseeCB49.72
217Drake JacksonKentuckyC49.65
218Justin HilliardOhio StateILB49.62
219Tommy KraemerNotre DameOG49.57
220Wyatt HubertKansas StateEDGE49.56
221Josh BallMarshallOT49.50
222Paddy FisherNorthwesternILB49.45
223Robert JonesMiddle TennesseeOT49.45
224Jimmy MorrisseyPittC49.41
225Drew HimmelmanIllinois StateOT49.41
226Dazz NewsomeNorth CarolinaWR49.29
227Noah GrayDukeTE49.23
228Elijah MitchellLouisianaRB49.21
229Hamilcar RashedOregon StateEDGE49.11
230Tedarrell SlatonFloridaDL49.04
231Joshua KaindohFlorida StateEDGE48.83
232Cary AngelineNorth Carolina StateTE48.80
233Sam EhlingerTexasQB48.71
234Warren JacksonColorado StateWR48.36
235Thomas Graham Jr.OregonCB48.29
236Tariq ThompsonSan Diego StateS48.28
237Jonathan Adams Jr.Arkansas StateWR48.20
238Javon McKinleyNotre DameWR48.00
239Larry BoromMissouriOT47.92
240Briley MooreKansas StateTE47.91
241Tony Fields IIWest VirginiaOLB47.47
242Brandon SmithIowaWR47.34
243Patrick JohnsonTulaneEDGE47.32
244Trevon GrimesFloridaWR47.29
245Amen OgbongbemigaOklahoma StateILB47.20
246Kylen GransonSMUTE47.18
247Malik HerringGeorgiaDL47.06
248Whop PhilyorIndianaWR46.99
249Pooka WilliamsKansasRB46.92
250Nick EubanksMichiganTE46.77
251Joshuah BledsoeMissouriS46.71
252Avery WilliamsBoise StateCB46.71
253Isaiahh LoudermilkWisconsinDL46.66
254Dylan SoehnerIowa StateTE46.62
255Derrick BarnesPurdueILB46.55
256Brady BreezeOregonS46.48
257Matt BushmanBYUTE46.32
258Rachad WildgooseWisconsinCB46.19
259Janarius RobinsonFlorida StateEDGE46.18
260Jhamon AusbonTexas A&MWR46.01
261Rakeem BoydArkansasRB45.90
262John BatesBoise StateTE45.83
263Christian UphoffIllinois StateS45.57
264Jose BorregalesMiami (FL)PK45.55
265Foster SarellStanfordOT45.26
266Quinton BohannaKentuckyDL45.24
267Quintin MorrisBowling GreenTE45.13
268Brandin EcholsKentuckyCB45.01
269Mustafa JohnsonColoradoDL44.83
270Ben SkowronekNotre DameWR44.75
271Brenden KnoxMarshallRB44.72
272Josh ImatorbhebheIllinoisWR44.67
273Jake CurhanCaliforniaOT44.64
274Damonte CoxieMemphisWR44.61
275Osirus MitchellMississippi StateWR44.29
276William ShermanColoradoOT44.18
277Jonathon CooperOhio StateEDGE44.16
278Ian BookNotre DameQB43.96
279Aashari CrosswellArizona StateS43.77
280Grant StuardHoustonOLB43.57
281Tay GowanCentral FloridaCB43.50
282Carson GreenTexas A&MOT43.39
283Nahshon WrightOregon StateCB43.26
284Isaiah McDuffieBoston CollegeOLB42.61
285Raymond Johnson IIIGeorgia StateEDGE42.52
286Landon YoungKentuckyOT42.45
287Pro WellsTCUTE42.45
288Tre NorwoodOklahomaCB42.29
289Trey RagasLouisianaRB41.75
290Feleipe FranksArkansasQB41.42
291Dax MilneBYUWR41.29
292Max RichardsonBoston CollegeOLB40.72
293Brennan EaglesTexasWR40.58
294Ryan McCollumTexas A&MC40.04
295Jonathan MarshallArkansasDL40.02
296Erroll ThompsonMississippi StateILB39.51
297Ta’Quon GrahamTexasDL39.48
298Shane BuecheleSMUQB39.44
299Isaiah McKoyKent StateWR38.72
300Austin FaoliuOregonDL38.26

Tom Brady’s career playoff statistics are absurd. It’ll be a long time before we see anyone even approach his nine championship game wins. Given that, it’s not surprising to see ESPN’s FPI show some faith in him:

TeamRiskedTo WinResult
Buccaneers14944249560

The Action Network agrees:

TeamLineRiskedTo WinResult
Buccaneers3.515918150170

ESPN’s FPI is currently down $122,918

TAN is currently up $21,114