PFF: Keep the streak going!

PFF is coming off of a monster win courtesy of the Chiefs-Patriots shootout. Their tab is back under $300K:

Current Tab	-$288,397.50
% of Bankroll	-144.20%
Standard Dev	294664
Two-tailed Z	-0.98

Tonight they’ll be riding with the Pack and the under. Oddly enough, that’s not what their internal record keeping will reflect:

+9.5 (or 10, since they track as of Tuesday morning). Mind you, if your internal line is +9, that doesn’t mean you’d happily lay +10 -116, but that’s a story for another day:

Team	Line	Risked	To Win	Result
Packers	0	21158	5303	0
SF-GB	u46	17468	15880	0

 

 

 

 

 

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PFF: A SNF shootout!

60 points or bust! PFF’s projection tonight is nice-and-a-half:

Hopefully we see a Big-12 style shootout for PFF’s sake. They need it after a rough afternoon dropped them back under -400K:

Current Tab	-$411,530.64
% of Bankroll	-205.77%
Standard Dev	269415
Two-tailed Z	-1.53

For the record, my preference was to defer to PFF and give them New England on the spread if the EV was roughly equal. Unfortunately, at the time I was locking in the price that wasn’t the case. Also, I still have no idea what defines a moneyline pick for PFF.

Team	Line	Risked	To Win	Result
KC-NE	O59.5	115804	119278	0
Patriots	0	7324	3855	0

 

 

 

PFF: In the Rams offense we trust

PFF is expecting some points this afternoon. For their sake let’s sit back and watch the fireworks.

A solid morning clawed back a little over $4K.

Current Tab	-$310,138.74
% of Bankroll	-155.07%
Standard Dev	242898
Two-tailed Z	-1.28

Please note, when PFF’s internal moneyline has a game as a pick, so will I. Examples:

I figure they’ll get the hang of it eventually.

Team	Line	Risked	To Win	Result
LAR-Den	o50	95228	89838	0
Rams	0	29831	10181	0
Jax-Dal	u39	9030	9120	0
Cowboys	3	32182	32825	0
Ravens	0	19543	14918	0
Bal-Ten	O43.5	55058	53454	0

 

 

 

 

PFF: Great Brockspectations.

So, you have the Steelers at -106, but your internal line is Bengals -0.5 and your final score is Bengals by 1. I’m seeing some inconsistencies in PFF’s story:

And then there is this attempt at a middle:

As you wish.

Team	Line	Risked	To Win	Result
Pit-Cin	O49.5	42840	42840	0
Steelers	0	9574	9957	0
LAC-Clev	u47	16040	14582	0
Bills	10.5	45277	40068	0
Buf-Hou	U40.5	9680	8963	0
TB-Atl	u57	2566	2376	0
Buccaneers	3	17384	15804	0
Seahawks	0	4608	3093	0
Raiders	3	9127	8373	0
Sea-Oak	o48	39882	36927	0
Car-Wash	U44.5	18582	17206	0
Panthers	0	922	782	0
Cardinals	10	179	156	0
Ariz-Min	O42.5	12295	10978	0
Colts	2.5	4891	4940	0
Chi-Mia	u41	5839	5357	0
Dolphins	7.5	63445	53767	0

Please note, I gave PFF plenty of time to update their Chi-Mia line. This is their final answer.

Their Thursday night sweep has cut into the tab. Let’s see if they can keep the run going:

Current Tab	-$314,678.82
% of Bankroll	-157.34%
Standard Dev	223078
Two-tailed Z	-1.41

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PFF: TNF, I wish I could wait

I have a set of rules here. Unless I am not going to be available, I track all picks as of one hour before kickoff. If I’m going to be unavailable, I’ll announce so in advance and set a time to lock in the picks accordingly. Tonight, that rule created a conundrum. PFF had a moneyline of -166, with their expected market price of -115. However, there was movement towards the Eagles which moved the moneyline to -130 as of 7:20, which is my listed cutoff. I knew that PFF would want to adjust their lines to track the market move, and they did:

Unfortunately, I am stuck with the plays as of 7:20. Them’s the rules folks. I just want to make it clear that if I applied PFF’s intent, they’d have more on the Eagles tonight.

Eagles	0	27086	20835	0
Phi-NYG	O44.5	24989	23138	0

After a win on MNF PFF has cut the deficit:

Current Tab	-$358,651.98
% of Bankroll	-179.33%
Standard Dev	220894
Two-tailed Z	-1.62

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NCAA Basketball Market Implied Pythags: Top 40

I am never, ever, attempting to do this again. Some brief notes:

1. Duke is on top. Sigh.
2. Nevada may end up on the #1 line. That feels weird to me.
3. The ACC is still loaded.
4. I’m really curious how Syracuse will put the pieces together this year. Real curious.

1	Duke	0.9508
2	Kansas	0.945
3	Gonzaga	0.9432
4	Kentucky	0.9403
5	Villanova	0.9363
6	Nevada	0.9338
7	North Carolina	0.9327
8	Virginia	0.913
9	Michigan State	0.9054
10	Michigan	0.9008
11	Tennessee	0.8964
12	Oregon	0.895
13	Auburn	0.8916
14	West Virginia	0.8902
15	UCLA	0.8892
16	Purdue	0.8887
17	Florida	0.885
18	Wichita State	0.881
19	Texas Tech	0.877
20	Indiana	0.872
21	Syracuse	0.867
22	Arizona	0.862
23	Ohio State	0.86
24	Florida State	0.86
25	Clemson	0.86
26	Cincinnati	0.859
27	Arizona State	0.858
28	Miami Florida	0.856
29	LSU	0.855
30	Virginia Tech	0.854
31	Wisconsin	0.85
32	Maryland	0.825
33	Kansas State	0.825
34	Texas A&M	0.825
35	NC State	0.825
36	Vanderbilt	0.825
37	Louisville	0.825
38	Xavier	0.822
39	Texas	0.822
40	St John’s	0.822

PFF: MNF, or, let’s light up the scoreboard

It’s funny. Despite the huge swings this week, PFF will finish up for the week with a win tonight. They got off to a great start, winning $100K on New England’s high scoring win over the Colts. They gave all of that back and then some on the 1 PM ET games. A win last night with Dallas +3.5 put them down 13,474 on the week. Embracing the variance leads to such swings.

Current Tab	-$374,100.10
% of Bankroll	-187.05%
Standard Dev	220353
Two-tailed Z	-1.70

As for tonight, PFF is rooting for offensive production. We’ll see how that goes.

Wash-NO

o52

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