538 is rooting for for the Jazz today, but the real prize is the Raptors in round two:

Team Risked To Win Result
Pacers 20155 143300 -20155
Bulls 8800 33000 -8800
Wizards 34900 16619 16619
Trailblazers 2867 86000 -2867
Thunder 8462 27500 -8462
Jazz 13845 28520 0
Raptors R2 41958 160280 0
Rockets R2 9247 20990 0
Current Tab -23664

I’m just doing series tracking, but if I were tracking futures, 538 would have 74.5% of their bankroll on the field winning the East. That’s a lot of skepticism towards Cleveland. We’ll see how that goes.

ESPN is fairly skeptical of Cleveland as well. Also, they too are rooting for the Jazz to et a profitable first round.

Team Risked To Win Result
Pacers 8720 62000 -8720
Raptors 15340 3854 3854
Bulls 11333 42500 -11333
X Warriors 4-0 4450 4045 -4450
Rockets 5000 1333 1333
Jazz 12359 25460 0
Raptors R2 33126 126540 0
Celtics R2 5480 3079 0
Current Tab -19316

I’ll update the tabs and the Golden State series projection later this week.

 

Quarterbacks:

https://sethburn.wordpress.com/2017/04/20/2017-nfl-draft-quarterbacks/

Running Backs:

https://sethburn.wordpress.com/2017/04/20/2017-nfl-draft-running-backs/

Wide Receivers:

https://sethburn.wordpress.com/2017/04/27/2017-nfl-draft-receivers/

Offensive Linemen:

https://sethburn.wordpress.com/2017/04/27/2017-nfl-draft-offensive-lineman/

Defensive Tackles:

https://sethburn.wordpress.com/2017/04/27/2017-nfl-draft-defensive-tackles/

Edge Rushers:

https://sethburn.wordpress.com/2017/04/27/2017-nfl-draft-edge-rushers/

Inside Linebackers:

https://sethburn.wordpress.com/2017/04/27/2017-nfl-draft-inside-linebackers/

Defensive Backs:

https://sethburn.wordpress.com/2017/04/27/2017-nfl-draft-defensive-backs/

And the ratings:

Name Position School Rating Ranking
Myles Garrett* DE Texas A&M 98.82 1
Jonathan Allen DT Alabama 88.84 2
Leonard Fournette* RB LSU 88.51 3
Solomon Thomas* DE Stanford 82.71 4
Jamal Adams* SS LSU 81.28 5
Marshon Lattimore* CB Ohio State 79.75 6
Malik Hooker* FS Ohio State 78.41 7
Reuben Foster ILB Alabama 77.56 8
O.J. Howard TE Alabama 76.95 9
Mike Williams* WR Clemson 74.59 10
John Ross* WR Washington 74.51 11
Dalvin Cook* RB Florida State 74.28 12
Mitch Trubisky* QB North Carolina 73.60 13
Derek Barnett* DE Tennessee 73.35 14
Corey Davis WR Western Michigan 73.07 15
Ryan Ramczyk* OT Wisconsin 72.83 16
David Njoku* TE Miami (FL) 72.60 17
Haason Reddick OLB Temple 72.06 18
Taco Charlton DE Michigan 70.92 19
Christian Mccaffrey* RB Stanford 70.11 20
Cam Robinson* OT Alabama 70.11 21
Takkarist Mckinley OLB UCLA 69.97 22
Marlon Humphrey* CB Alabama 69.78 23
Forrest Lamp OG Western Kentucky 69.51 24
Jabrill Peppers* S Michigan 69.44 25
Garett Bolles* OT Utah 69.36 26
Deshaun Watson* QB Clemson 68.60 27
Malik McDowell* DT Michigan State 67.94 28
Charles Harris DE Missouri 67.49 29
Caleb Brantley* DT Florida 66.98 30
Zach Cunningham* OLB Vanderbilt 66.51 31
Tre’Davious White CB LSU 66.32 32
Tim Williams DE Alabama 65.94 33
Jarrad Davis ILB Florida 64.44 34
Teez Tabor* CB Florida 63.42 35
Gareon Conley* CB Ohio State 63.22 36
Budda Baker* S Washington 62.95 37
Evan Engram TE Mississippi 62.74 38
Patrick Mahomes II* QB Texas Tech 62.55 39
Sidney Jones* CB Washington 61.76 40
Alvin Kamara* RB Tennessee 61.54 41
DeShone Kizer* QB Notre Dame 61.38 42
Carl Lawson* DE Auburn 59.29 43
Jordan Willis DE Kansas State 58.96 44
Adoree’ Jackson* CB USC 58.91 45
Raekwon McMillan* ILB Ohio State 58.65 46
Quincy Wilson* CB Florida 58.52 47
T.J. Watt* OLB Wisconsin 58.50 48
Curtis Samuel* WR Ohio State 58.43 49
Joe Mixon* RB Oklahoma 58.42 50
Dan Feeney OG Indiana 58.09 51
Desmond King CB Iowa 58.05 52
Marcus Williams* S Utah 57.53 53
Taylor Moton OG Western Michigan 57.06 54
Obi Melifonwu S Connecticut 56.81 55
JuJu Smith-Schuster* WR USC 56.33 56
Dion Dawkins OG Temple 55.34 57
Gerald Everett TE South Alabama 55.14 58
Ryan Anderson OLB Alabama 54.96 59
Tyus Bowser OLB Houston 54.79 60
Antonio Garcia OT Troy 54.64 61
Justin Evans S Texas A&M 54.51 62
Chris Wormley DT Michigan 54.18 63
Marcus Maye S Florida 54.17 64
Pat Elflein C Ohio State 53.84 65
Cooper Kupp WR Eastern Washington 53.66 66
Chidobe Awuzie CB Colorado 53.44 67
Bucky Hodges* TE Virginia Tech 53.23 68
Isaiah “Zay” Jones WR East Carolina 53.06 69
Jake Butt TE Michigan 52.94 70
D’Onta Foreman* RB Texas 52.81 71
Dawaune Smoot DE Illinois 52.61 72
Ethan Pocic C LSU 52.13 73
Derek Rivers DE Youngstown State 52.09 74
DeMarcus Walker DE Florida State 52.01 75
Cameron Sutton CB Tennessee 51.09 76
Cordrea Tankersley CB Clemson 51.00 77
Kevin King CB Washington 50.88 78
Dalvin Tomlinson DT Alabama 50.84 79
Samaje Perine* RB Oklahoma 50.71 80
Chris Godwin* WR Penn State 50.63 81
Duke Riley OLB LSU 50.63 82
Jaleel Johnson DT Iowa 50.62 83
Taywan Taylor WR Western Kentucky 50.55 84
Dorian Johnson OG Pittsburgh 50.19 85
Nathan Peterman QB Pittsburgh 49.31 86
Isaiah Ford* WR Virginia Tech 49.19 87
Josh Jones* S North Carolina State 49.04 88
Carlos Watkins DT Clemson 48.73 89
ArDarius Stewart* WR Alabama 48.01 90
Amara Darboh WR Michigan 48.00 91
Carlos Henderson* WR Louisiana Tech 47.94 92
Roderick Johnson* OT Florida State 47.76 93
Alex Anzalone* ILB Florida 47.57 94
Kareem Hunt RB Toledo 47.04 95
Fabian Moreau CB UCLA 46.91 96
Marlon Mack* RB South Florida 46.84 97
Jordan Leggett TE Clemson 46.11 98
Elijah Qualls* DT Washington 45.74 99
Brad Kaaya* QB Miami (FL) 45.50 100
Montravius Adams DT Auburn 45.16 101
Adam Shaheen TE Ashland 44.92 102
Dede Westbrook WR Oklahoma 44.89 103
Wayne Gallman* RB Clemson 44.89 104
Tanoh Kpassagnon DT Villanova 44.70 105
Kendell Beckwith ILB LSU 44.61 106
Damontae Kazee CB San Diego State 44.22 107
Rasul Douglas CB West Virginia 44.16 108
John Johnson S Boston College 43.83 109
Tarell Basham DE Ohio 43.83 110
Larry Ogunjobi DT Charlotte 43.64 111
Nico Siragusa OG San Diego State 43.58 112
Malachi Dupre* WR LSU 43.48 113
Davis Webb QB California 43.05 114
Anthony Walker Jr.* ILB Northwestern 42.49 115
Vince Biegel OLB Wisconsin 41.99 116
Jeremy Sprinkle TE Arkansas 41.89 117
Jeremy McNichols RB Boise State 41.84 118
Eddie Jackson S Alabama 40.72 119
Howard Wilson* CB Houston 40.17 120
Adam Bisnowaty OG Pittsburgh 40.15 121
Zach Banner OT USC 39.93 122
Chad Hansen* WR California 39.48 123
James Conner* RB Pittsburgh 39.05 124
Josh Reynolds WR Texas A&M 38.72 125
Nazair Jones* DT North Carolina 38.55 126
Vincent Taylor* DT Oklahoma State 38.37 127
Daeshon Hall DE Texas A&M 38.23 128
Ryan Glasgow DT Michigan 38.13 129
Noah Brown* WR Ohio State 37.97 130
Tyler Orlosky C West Virginia 37.94 131
Will Holden OT Vanderbilt 37.88 132
Jerod Evans QB Virginia Tech 37.80 133
Isaac Asiata OG Utah 37.63 134
Tedric Thompson S Colorado 37.50 135
Jarron Jones DT Notre Dame 37.35 136
Jamaal Williams RB Brigham Young 36.91 137
Josh Harvey-Clemons S Louisville 36.74 138
Keionta Davis DE Chattanooga 36.58 139
Michael Roberts TE Toledo 36.50 140
Lorenzo Jerome S St. Francis (PA) 36.41 141
Deatrich Wise Jr. DE Arkansas 36.30 142
Eddie Vanderdoes* DT UCLA 36.24 143
Jon Toth C Kentucky 36.14 144
D J (Donnel) Pumphrey RB San Diego State 36.10 145
Jonnu Smith TE Florida International 35.74 146
Tanzel Smart DT Tulane 35.68 147
Delano Hill S Michigan 35.45 148
Jermaine Eluemunor OG Texas A&M 35.27 149
Trey Hendrickson DE Florida Atlantic 35.18 150
Travis Rudolph* WR Florida State 35.16 151
Ben Gedeon ILB Michigan 35.15 152
Matthew Dayes RB North Carolina State 35.12 153
Corn Elder CB Miami (FL) 35.10 154
Mack Hollins WR North Carolina 34.80 155
Brian Hill* RB Wyoming 34.52 156
KD Cannon* WR Baylor 34.17 157
Julie’n Davenport OT Bucknell 34.12 158
Bryan Cox DE Florida 34.09 159
Charles Walker* DT Oklahoma 34.04 160
Josh Carraway OLB TCU 33.98 161
Devonte Fields OLB Louisville 33.97 162
Cole Hikutini TE Louisville 33.97 163
Davon Godchaux* DT LSU 33.74 164
Al-Quadin Muhammad DE Miami (FL) 33.70 165
Chad Wheeler OT USC 33.60 166
Stacy Coley WR Miami (FL) 33.42 167
Shelton Gibson WR West Virginia 33.37 168
David Sharpe* OT Florida 33.26 169
Corey Clement RB Wisconsin 32.91 170
Joshua Dobbs QB Tennessee 32.80 171
Carroll Phillips OLB Illinois 32.74 172
Jehu Chesson WR Michigan 32.68 173
Rayshawn Jenkins S Miami (FL) 31.40 174
JoJo Mathis DE Washington 31.39 175
Ryan Switzer WR North Carolina 31.26 176
Jourdan Lewis CB Michigan 31.19 177
Ejuan Price DE Pittsburgh 31.19 178
Johnathan (Rudy) Ford S Auburn 30.69 179
Marquez White CB Florida State 30.63 180
Shaquill Griffin CB UCF 30.50 181
Damien Mama* OG USC 30.42 182
Jordan Morgan OG Kutztown 30.04 183
Josh Malone* WR Tennessee 29.60 184
Joe Williams RB Utah 29.18 185
Artavis Scott* WR Clemson 28.84 186
Eric Saubert TE Drake 28.71 187
Chad Kelly QB Mississippi 28.70 188
Amba Etta-Tawo WR Syracuse 28.37 189
Nathan Gerry S Nebraska 28.27 190
Zane Gonzalez PK Arizona State 27.68 191
Billy Brown TE Shepherd 27.52 192
Jamari Staples WR Louisville 27.35 193
Danny Isidora OG Miami (FL) 27.28 194
Jalen Reeves-Maybin OLB Tennessee 27.11 195
Stevie Tu’Ikolovatu DT USC 27.10 196
Channing Stribling CB Michigan 26.78 197
Kyle Fuller C Baylor 26.68 198
Elijah Lee* OLB Kansas State 26.49 199
Ben Boulware ILB Clemson 25.87 200
Elijah Mcguire RB Louisiana-Lafayette 25.65 201
Tarik Cohen RB North Carolina A&T 25.15 202
George Kittle TE Iowa 25.08 203
Ishmael Zamora WR Baylor 25.07 204
Conor McDermott OT UCLA 24.87 205
Matt Milano OLB Boston College 24.84 206
Travin Dural WR LSU 24.60 207
Ahkello Witherspoon CB Colorado 24.56 208
Kenny Golladay WR Northern Illinois 24.47 209
Erik Magnuson OT Michigan 24.37 210
Jadar Johnson S Clemson 24.09 211
Elijah Hood RB North Carolina 24.06 212
Austin Rehkow PT Idaho 23.84 213
D J Jones DT Mississippi 23.79 214
Jessamen Dunker OG Tennessee State 23.39 215
Isaiah McKenzie* WR Georgia 23.30 216
Gabe Marks WR Washington State 23.25 217
Jeremiah Ledbetter DE Arkansas 23.22 218
Dan Skipper OT Arkansas 23.10 219
Hunter Dimick DT Utah 23.09 220
Ashton Lampkin CB Oklahoma State 23.05 221
Marquel Lee OLB Wake Forest 22.95 222
Isaac Rochell DE Notre Dame 22.90 223
Sam Rogers FB Virginia Tech 22.89 224
Jalen Robinette WR Air Force 22.88 225
Nate Hairston CB Temple 22.85 226
Trent Taylor WR Louisiana Tech 22.80 227
T J Logan RB North Carolina 22.75 228
Avery Gennesy OT Texas A&M 22.49 229
Ricky Seals-Jones* WR Texas A&M 22.31 230
Darreus Rogers WR USC 22.30 231
Speedy Noil* WR Texas A&M 22.10 232
Cooper Rush QB Central Michigan 21.99 233
Dare Ogunbowale RB Wisconsin 21.86 234
Brendan Langley CB Lamar 21.80 235
Damore’ea Stringfellow* WR Mississippi 21.76 236
Connor Harris ILB Lindenwood 21.75 237
J J Dielman C Utah 21.73 238
Jake Elliott PK Memphis 21.24 239
Tashawn Bower OLB LSU 20.97 240
Jerome Lane WR Akron 20.95 241
De’Veon Smith RB Michigan 20.52 242
Garrett Sickels* DE Penn State 20.48 243
Bug Howard WR North Carolina 19.89 244
C.J. Beathard QB Iowa 19.84 245
Fred Ross WR Mississippi State 19.63 246
Paul Magloire Jr. OLB Arizona 19.02 247
Scott Orndoff TE Pittsburgh 18.83 248
Justin Senior OT Mississippi State 18.71 249
Corey Levin OG Chattanooga 18.56 250
Robert Davis WR Georgia St 18.40 251
Sefo Liufau QB Colorado 18.15 252
Alek Torgensen QB Pennsylvania 17.87 253
Justin Vogel PT Miami (FL) 17.86 254
Chase Roullier C Wyoming 17.85 255
Hardy Nickerson ILB Illinois 17.43 256
Aviante Collins OT TCU 17.39 257
Dylan Donahue DE West Georgia 17.36 258
Montae Nicholson* S Michigan State 17.14 259
Collin Buchanan OT Miami (OH) 17.13 260
James Quick WR Louisville 16.51 261
Blake Jarwin TE Oklahoma State 16.41 262
DeAngelo Brown DT Louisville 16.16 263
Jeremy Clark CB Michigan 16.01 264
Dylan Cole ILB Missouri State 15.99 265
Devine Redding RB Indiana 15.92 266
Seth Russell QB Baylor 15.90 267
Keith Kelsey ILB Louisville 15.83 268
Storm Norton OT Toledo 15.80 269
Aaron Jones RB UTEP 15.70 270
Fadol Brown DE Mississippi 15.69 271
Blair Brown ILB Ohio 15.48 272
Quincy Adeboyejo WR Mississippi 15.46 273
Pharaoh Brown TE Oregon 15.26 274
Jimmie Gilbert DE Colorado 15.17 275
Riley Bullough ILB Michigan State 15.13 276
Jordan Sterns S Oklahoma State 15.12 277
Krishawn Hogan WR Marian College 14.99 278
Brian Allen CB Utah 14.87 279
Hayden Plinke TE UTEP 14.74 280
Noble Nwachukwu DE West Virginia 14.56 281
Stantley (Boom) Williams RB Kentucky 14.28 282
Brooks Ellis ILB Arkansas 14.17 283
Noel Thomas WR Connecticut 14.14 284
Ken Ekanem DE Virginia Tech 14.14 285
Ben Braden OG Michigan 14.09 286
Rushel Shell RB West Virginia 13.98 287
Jahad Thomas RB Temple 13.74 288
Fish Smithson S Kansas 13.71 289
De’Angelo Henderson RB Coastal Carolina 13.40 290
Pita Taumoepenu DE Utah 13.16 291
Treston Decoud CB Oregon State 12.99 292
Kermit Whitfield WR Florida State 12.96 293
Jalen Myrick CB Minnesota 12.88 294
Cameron Lee OG Illinois State 12.86 295
Xavier Woods S Louisiana Tech 12.76 296
Chuck Clark S Virginia Tech 12.58 297
Darrell Daniels TE Washington 12.28 298
Jerry Ugokwe OT William & Mary 12.26 299
Freddie Stevenson FB Florida State 12.25 300
Antonio Pipkin QB Tiffin 12.09 301
Cameron Tom C Southern Miss 11.99 302
Ifeadi Odenigbo DE Northwestern 11.55 303
Sean Harlow OT Oregon State 11.51 304
Kyle Kalis OG Michigan 11.18 305
Sam Tevi OT Utah 10.90 306
Sojourn Shelton CB Wisconsin 10.67 307

 

Scroll down for safeties. It’s a deep class for both cornerbacks and safeties. Exceptionally so.

Full Ratings available here:

https://sethburn.wordpress.com/2017/04/14/2017-nfl-draft-ratings/

Cornerbacks

Marshon Lattimore: Such an incredible talent. He has everything your looking for. He’s fluid, fast, with great anticipation and spacial recognition. In terms of pure talent he’s the best cornerback prospect I’ve seen in a long time. However, he’s battled hamstring injuries for years, and the demands of the NFL are a lot harsher than those of high school or college. I have less doubt about his ability to cover in the NFL than any other cornerback in the class, but can he stay on the field. It’s a major red flag, and one that would probably scare me away from taking him in the top six.

Marlon Humphrey: Incredible athlete. Very good in press coverage. His play weakens the further downfield he has to work. He has the Alabama disease where he loses his place when he gets spun around (seriously, watch the film. LSU worked him like that). His reaction time isn’t great, so he’s going to require some coaching/experience to get up to speed in the NFL.

Gareon Conley: Allegations just broke about a possible sexual assault. It won’t be resolved before the draft. He’s has elite top-end speed, paired with great explosion. He shut down some #1 receivers cold. However, others repeatedly worked him on the first cut. It was weird to watch. He had so much trust in his ability to catch up that he got lax/sloppy. Or maybe his reflexes are bollocks. Whatever the case may be, that’s not going to work in the NFL and will be the first thing his team will have to coach out of him. He’s going to fall in the draft. No idea how far.

Tre’Davious White: The most experienced cornerback in the draft. He’s a proven commodity who has handled every type of receiver/route. If he were a few inches taller, he’d have been a first round pick in last year’s draft. I love his tape and would be happy to see him end up in NY. Oh, one other thing: I know he can be a serviceable punt returner, but I hate risking injury on special teams. Their are plenty of fifth rounders who can hang around the bottom of your roster and return punts/kicks.

Teez Tabor: I admit this one is a bit of a personal taste for me. Tabor is a physical cornerback who is comfortable attacking the line of scrimmage. I was surprised at his poor bench press numbers from the combine. He’s had issues with missed tackles, but those were mostly from being juked or taking a bad angle. There’s little evidence that he has the range to handle deep coverage and may end up being moved to free safety. He’s a natural ballhawk so it would make some sense.

Sidney Jones: Coming off of an Achilles tear. He’ll likely start the season on the PUP list. It’s unclear what kind of player he’ll be when he comes back. He was solid in coverage, but lacked physicality, even by cornerback standards. I’d pass on him.

Adoree Jackson: Incredible film. Dude could fly. So good on special teams that I might override my better instincts and put him back there. He made so called “burners” look bad when they tried to beat him deep. The flaw? He’s not great at the day job. He doesn’t have great instincts or reaction speed. Sure, once he realizes where you are going, he’ll beat you there, but there is still that window in between where you are wide open. Can that be improved with better coaching/more practice? Yes, to a degree. Some of that is innate. On the other hand, he showed an ability and willingness to cover anyone on any route, inside or outside. He has outstanding potential and I might be willing to reach a bit for him if my staff felt they could correct his flaws.

Quincy Wilson: Dominated mediocre receivers. Got schooled by the greats. That makes for a tough NFL profile, but there is some good news. A lot of his problems were based off of poor technique, which can be fixed. The athletic gifts are all there. I expect him to be a quality cornerback in a few years, but I don’t see the upside to justify early selection.

Desmond King: Is it me, or all the top four-year cornerbacks under six feet tall? King is a hair short of 5-10. He might be the best pure nickel cornerback in the draft. How high you value that depends on your defensive scheme. Above average ball recognition skills leads to a fair amount of interceptions, so he might eventually have a future as a safety.

Chidobe Awuzie: I like him either as a zone cornerback or a safety. He’s athletic enough to play any position you ask of him, but his man-to-man skills are a bit lacking. In particularly, physical receivers push him around. He can beat less physical receivers with press coverage off the line, but he gets into trouble downfield if he misses the initial contact. Very prone to penalties, which is another reason I prefer him playing off in zone coverage.

Kevin King: A great combine may have moved him up a round. Nice speed, but didn’t show up on film. Actually, the film was kind of terrible, which made the combine a head scratcher. Is there a lot of untapped talent here, or is he just an athlete who isn’t great at football? And then there are the nagging injuries. He stayed healthy last season, but they’ve been an issue throughout his career. Finally, he’s a converted safety. He doesn’t really have the physicality to play safety in the NFL, so it’s going to be cornerback or bust for him. I’d pass.

Cameron Sutton: Small hands. Poor tackler. But his coverage skills… so good. He’s been described as a film rat and it shows. He’s very hard to beat with your initial move. He isn’t a good enough athlete to grab early, but he’ll be a solid #2 or nickel cornerback for years in the NFL.

Cordrea Tankersley: Looks the part, but the athleticism is lacking. Great at press coverage. Earned a reputation as a DPI machine. He was a key part on a great team, but… I don’t like what I see in terms of transitioning to the next level. It looks like he’ll go in the second round, which isn’t where I’d take him.

Fabian Moreau: Look, I want him to become a star for one reason and one reason only: So I can make jokes about The Island of Dr. Moreau. He actually has star potential, but the film was always disappointing. He’s coming off of pectoral surgery, and had a major foot injury in 2015. He might never be a productive NFL player. Or he’ll return healthy and provide first-round value well into the future. If healthy, he has tremendous power and explosiveness. A true boom-bust pick.

Safeties:

Jamal Adams: Prototype box safety. Handled tight ends, slot receivers, running backs. Doesn’t have elite speed, but that’s the only ding in an otherwise flawless package. Pretty much the highest floor imaginable. Erased a mediocre combine with an exceptional pro day. Great reaction time. After Garrett, he might be the least likely player in the draft to bust.

Malik Hooker: More upside than any defensive back in the draft, including Adams and Lattimore. He’s the free safety coaches dream of. Thing is, he only played one year of high school football and started one year in college. The questions about his commitment to football are serious. While he has great vision, he isn’t an elite athlete. Hooker is a conundrum. He reacts incredibly fast, which leads him to having great range. Will that translate to the NFL when the game speeds up? As much as I love his potential, the concerns are equally great. Also, coming off of a hip injury. Might not be 100% to start the season. Making the right call on Hooker could save a coach’s job. He’s going to go early, and might be a star, or a bust. My instinct: Look elsewhere. I don’t trust Hooker.

Jabrill Peppers: A safety/OLB/nickel hybrid. Those aren’t rare so much as this might be the first I’ve ever seen. Oh, and he can play running back or wildcat QB. I love his tackling skills and think he might be best as a strong safety. Then again, if he can handle the OLB job, that gives your defense a burst of speed that might not otherwise be available. His versatility is incredible and will test the coaching staff to get the most out of him.

Budda Baker: Jumps off the film. So many great moments. He had a mediocre combine and doesn’t really look the part of an NFL safety. He’s not a true ballhawk, but may be an excellent nickel/dime cornerback in an era where that’s part of the base defense. He’s going to be a nice value pick. The fact is, he’s the right player entering the league at the right time.

Obi Melifonwu: Best combine of any player in the draft. It was “Holy shit” all around. A true superfreak athlete. But the film… so many missed plays. If his film was as good as his combine, it would be him and Garrett going 1-2 in some order. Can NFL coaches fix him? Honestly, the ceiling here is so absurdly high that someone is going to roll the dice early. If he heard his name called late on day one I’d understand. The ceiling is that high. Lot of work left to do though.

Marcus Williams: A solid athlete with excellent film. Williams is a bit of a FS/CB hybrid. He might want to bulk up a bit to play safety, or stay at his current weight and work as a #2 CB. The knock on him is that he’s a poor tackler. I’m not sure that’s quite fair, but I agree some more power would pay off dividends, especially if he’s asked to attack the line of scrimmage. A solid player who should be a good pro.

Marcus Maye: What he lacks in coverage skills he makes up for with absurdly good tackling technique. He forces fumbles at an incredible rate because he has excellent hand-eye coordination. One you notice it on film you keep looking for it. Some guys hit like a true. He hits where it hurts. I love him in space. Probably better as a free safety than inside the box, but he’s versatile enough to handle either role.

Justin Evans: Hits like a truck. Not built like a truck. I have no idea how he’s stayed healthy, but I’d be worried the streak is due to end. He can play cornerback or safety. Not necessarily a great fit at either position. Has this weird trait where he’s really good at navigating past blockers, and then whiffing on the tackle. If coaches can get him to eschew the big hits and just focus on making the tackle his stats will improve. I don’t think I’d grab him in the first two rounds though.

Josh Jones: A true safety/linebacker hybrid. He doesn’t have the coverage skills to be a true safety, and isn’t quite strong enough to be a true OLB. Still, that’s not a problem. There’s lots of room now for a player who can cover tight ends and attack the line of scrimmage, and he can do both. I expect him to be a solid pro.

No idea why I gave Inside Linebackers it’s own post.

Full ratings here:

https://sethburn.wordpress.com/2017/04/14/2017-nfl-draft-ratings/

Inside Linebackers

Reuben Foster: If we just go off the film and the measurables he’s be a lock to go in the top 10. His range and power are tremendous, as is his recognition. He can attack the line of scrimmage or work in coverage. However, there are two major concerns. The first is that he took a lot of wear and tear at Alabama. There are concerns that he’s an elevated injury risk. The second is his diluted sample at the combine. Even so, he’s a premium talent and he’s still going to hear his name called in the first round.

Zach Cunningham: Not sure if he’s an OLB or ILB. Excellent closing speed with a freakish wingspan. Stunningly poor hands (no interceptions in college). He has the speed to work in coverage and range to stuff the run. Very poor at breaking away from blocks, but that can be fixed with better technique. Cunningham has a very high ceiling, and like Reddick, I’d be happy if he ended up in NY.

Jarrad Davis: Huge red flag injury risk. Has been plagued by lower-body injuries. When healthy, he can play any linebacker position. Great burst and range, as well as recognition. Will likely need to bulk up a bit to avoid being overpowered in the NFL. This one is going to come down to your medical staff. If they give the thumbs up, could sneak into the first round. If not, could miss day two.

Raekwon McMillan: Would have been an easy first round selection in the 70’s. Dominant middle linebacker against the run. Mediocre coverage skills. Not a great blitzer. That makes him a tricky fit in the modern NFL. Showed potential at the combine as he ran faster than expected. It’s possible he can improve his coverage skills and end up being a three-down player, but that’s a leap of faith. Then again, tackling machines are still useful, and that’s the label most scouts throw at McMillan.

Alex Anzalone: Film suggested he might be a great athlete. Combine disabused us of that notion. He’s been unable to stay healthy. He’s not going to hear his name called in the first three rounds. At some point the potential outweighs the risks for a player has had some great flashes on film.

Full Ratings available here:

https://sethburn.wordpress.com/2017/04/14/2017-nfl-draft-ratings/

Edge Rushers

I’m including defensive ends and outside linebackers here. I’ll try to note in the comments where they will likely play.

Myles Garrett: Yes, he really is that good. Faced near constant double-teams. Comparable to Jadeveon Clowney in terms of raw talent. Clowney had a little more force against the run, while Garrett is a better pass rusher. Garrett is far and away the most likely Hall-of-Fame player from this class. I’ll be stunned if he doesn’t go first overall, which is where he belongs.

Solomon Thomas: He’s tremendously talented, but fit is a concern. He’s not a pure pass rusher, and he doesn’t quite have the size you want to stuff the run. Still, I don’t want to overthink this. He’s an excellent football player with great film. He’ll find a spot to play no matter where he ends up. Given the positional value of edge rushers and the lack of elite quarterbacks in this draft, I can understand why he’s the favorite to go second overall. FYI, while SackSEER loves Garrett and has him first overall, it has Thomas fifth among pass rushers. Again, he’s not a pure edge rusher.

Haason Redick: I’ve seen him listed as a defensive end and as an inside linebacker, so that should give you some sense to his versatility. I have him as an outside linebacker, but who knows where he’ll end up. He’s coming off a monster senior year. He’s best when attacking the line of scrimmage, but has the athleticism to drop into coverage. He’s a player I’d like to see end up the Giants given their need for linebackers.

Takkarist McKinley: Undersized, without great agility. Perhaps the best pure speed rush in the draft, but little else. Some teams can afford such a one-trick pony without weakening their defense, but most cannot, so McKinley better find the right fit. I wouldn’t like to see him end up in NY.

Charles Harris: Showed way more explosion on film than at the combine. So much so that I’m not sure what to think of him. The combine numbers suggest he’s a marginal athlete that will struggle to stay on the field in the pros. The film says he can create negative yardage plays against both the run and the pass in the NFL. The general trend in the NFL is to value athleticism over film. I hate ignoring what I’ve seen, but I think I’d have to pass on Harris unless he fell in the draft.

Tim Williams: Almost universally compared to Bruce Irvin. Excellent athleticism. Scouts are concerned about potential off-field issues. My issue is that we have very little data on his ability to play the run. Also, he isn’t as explosive as Irvin was, so I think if he’s going to be a pass-rush specialist, he’ll need to develop his game. I’m not a huge fan of Williams, off-field issues aside.

Jordan Willis: Great production. Great combine. Looks awkward on film because there are a lot of instances where he gets close to the ball, but is just short of making the play. I see a great pro and wouldn’t be shocked if he snuck into the first round or went very early in the second. Just a great mix of speed and power. He’d look great in green, hint, hint.

Carl Lawson: I have no faith that he’ll be able to withstand the physicality of the NFL. He had numerous injuries at LSU. If he can stay health, you’re looking at a very strong linebacker with a great initial burst. If he can stay on the field, he’s a potential first-round talent, but that’s a big if given his history. I think I’d look elsewhere.

T.J. Watt: Draft T.J. Watt. He won’t be nearly as effective against the run as his brother, but he’s a more natural pass rusher. He can blitz or drop back into coverage. He’s still learning the position and might need to spend some time on the sideline while he’s learning it, but the long term potential is enormous. SackSEER loves him two, putting him behind only Myles Garrett.

Ryan Anderson: Limited athletically, but made the most of his skills. You see him making play after play on film. Lacks great speed or quickness, but makes up for it with great effort and solid power. I’ll note it was unusually hard to get him off balance. That, combined with great recognition, led him to be in the right position to make a play far more often than would be expected. It’s a cliché, but he’s a great football player, if not a great athlete.

Tyus Bowser: Another SackSEER favorite. Explosive on film. Great reaction time against the pass, with very long arms. Can knock the ball down at the line of scrimmage, and even pick up a few interceptions. A bit too small to play on the line, so will need to develop better coverage skills. Either that, or be a pure pass rush specialist. It’s an open question how much he can bulk up while maintaining his burst. If he can add 15-20 pounds and stay explosive, he’ll end up being a steal.

Dawuane Smoot: Two years ago he dominated single-blocking. This year offenses keyed on him and he struggled. He gives a solid effort, but the overall talent is lacking. I don’t see much upside potential here and wouldn’t grab him in the first three rounds.

DeMarcus Walker: Dude’s production far exceeded his athletic gifts. He’s going to get drafted, but it’s hard to see him making an impact in the NFL. Not a player I’d grab in the first three rounds.

Derek Rivers: I’d be shocked if he fell out the second round. He suffered a bit in my numbers because the competition he faced at Youngstown State was weak and he probably should have been more productive. However, his talent is enormous and he should be able to get to the quarterback. Notably weak against the run, which is something he’ll need to work on with the coaching staff. Even so, I’d love to see him in NY. Actually, he gets an even higher grade than that: I’d hate if he ended up on the Patriots.

Duke Riley: A pure weakside linebacker. He only started for one year and is still a bit raw. Great field coverage. Might need some time to adjust to the NFL, despite playing at LSU. I expect him to be a quality performer by his third season.

Defensive Tackles

Please note that some of these guys are DT/DE hybrids. Similarly, some of the players I am going to list at defensive end can play at tackle in a 4-3 defense. I just wanted to have some kind of separation for edge rushers.

Full Ratings available here:

https://sethburn.wordpress.com/2017/04/14/2017-nfl-draft-ratings/

Jonathan Allen: He could play pretty much any position on the defensive line, but I think I like him most as a 4-3 tackle or a 3-4 end. Dominant in college, even by Alabama standards. There are concerns he already has a lot of wear and tear on his body. Arthritic shoulders are a major concern, and could cause his draft stock to fall deep into the first round. Alternatively, he could be given a clean bill of health and go in the top five. I don’t have access to that data. If he can stay on the field, I have him as the #2 player in the class, behind only Myles Garrett. It’s a big if, but I think I’d pump the fist were he to end up in NY.

Malik McDowell: Hard pass. His best games were incredible. Dominated Notre Dame, forced Alabama to change their blocking scheme. Thing is, there weren’t enough good games. Was he hurt? Did he quit on his teammates? I don’t know. I do know that his interviews went very poorly. He is going to fall to the point where a team refuses to pass on his talent regardless of his bust potential.

Caleb Brantley: Without question he’s the weirdest DT I’ve ever seen. I mean that, and it isn’t even close. Watch him when he gets to attack. He loves trying to split a gap or get around a guy one on one. Looks like a surefire first-round pick. Now, watch him when he gets double teamed and can’t split or get around them. What the fuck was that? Did he just literally stop playing football? He must have gotten his spikes caught in the field or something. Wait, it just happened again. Dude literally gives up when he feels he can’t make a play. He also didn’t have great conditioning and had to come out of the game a lot. However, his best plays are incredible. He can beat the snap and go through the offensive line like it was made of butter. I suspect he’s going to fall a bit in the draft, so maybe he’ll provide a good value to the team that drafts him. I’m a little concerned about his bust potential though.

Chris Wormley: Dude is a shark. He just keeps moving forward, which made him the king of the coverage sack. I’m not knocking that. Even if the QB holds the ball, someone has to get there and bring him down. Excellent reaction against the run. Wormley was criticized for not being more dominant given his physical attributes, but I loved what I saw of him on film. I’d be happy to see him end up in NY.

Dalvin Tomlinson: Chose Alabama over Harvard. One year starter. Some concern about his knees. Very strong, with good initial burst off the line. Projected as a nose, but he can be a 3-4 end or a 4-3 tackle as well. Impressed teams at the combine. He should be a solid rotation guy for whomever drafts him.

Jaleel Johnson: Highest floor of any nose tackle in the class. Solid power, exceptional quickness. Very smart player who reads and reacts to the initial action very quickly. What he lacks is the next level of athleticism that it takes to dominate in the NFL. I still like him a lot, but know that the ceiling isn’t very high.

Montravius Adams: He’s a conundrum. He made Ethan Pocic look awful, and was a man among boys at the Senior Bowl practices. However, his film was only “alright”. He managed to improve every year, and his senior season was solid. He has the talent to keep improving and has a higher ceiling than anyone other than Allen or McDowell. The problem here was that while his straight line speed is top notch, his agility and reaction time was awful. Can that be improved with coaching? I don’t know. He improved his Senior year by increasing his effort/intensity. I’d have to defer to the coaching staff on this one. If they feel it’s correctable, go get him. If not, trust the film and pass on him.

This is one of the weakest offensive line classes in a long time. We may see some reaches because of that.

Full ratings here:

https://sethburn.wordpress.com/2017/04/14/2017-nfl-draft-ratings/

Offensive lineman

Ryan Ramczyk: He’s a very tough player to evaluate. He hurt his hip early in the year and still managed to put up very good numbers. Is the hip injury going to be a nagging problem? Or does he have another gear? Answering that would require medical information I am not privy to. If the hip isn’t an issue, we’re looking at an excellent option at either tackle position. What he lacks in raw power he makes up for with solid technique and excellent reaction speed. Even in pass protection he’s very good at making the first move and winning the initial point of contact. That’s hard to teach, and is why he’s my #1 tackle prospect for the draft.

Forrest Lamp: It’s anyone’s guess what his position is in the NFL. He dominated at left tackle at Western Kentucky, but he might end up being a right tackle, a center, or a guard in the NFL. There are concerns about Ramczyk’s arm length, and Lamp’s are 1.5 inches shorter. That makes it very tough to project him as a tackle. It’s hard to get great value out of a guard (with notable exceptions), so if a team doesn’t view him as a tackle, they’d probably want to try him at center. No matter where he ends up, I expect him to become a quality football player.

Cam Robinson: There are some concerns about his shoulders, but nothing major. Similarly, his off-field issues have been blown out of proportion. Unlike Lamp and Ramczyk, he has the prototype build to play left or right tackle. His skill set fits right tackle slightly better as he’s a natural mauler, but he’ll be given a chance to prove himself at left tackle first. He has a bad habit of overcompensating if he feels he is getting beat on a play, and draws an unacceptable number of flags as a result. Coaches are going to need to improve his footwork such that he isn’t falling behind as often early in the play. He has a higher ceiling than Ramczyk or Lamp and should be a high quality starting tackle in a year or two.

Garrett Bolles: Hard pass. He’s a 25 year old rookie. He looked great on film getting to the second level, but generally that was against weaker competition. Robinson had a problem with penalties due to poor technique. Bolles committed penalties that were just indefensible (he had 17 last year). I’ll grant he’s an elite athlete who had a great combine. Well, in terms of speed and agility. He didn’t lift because of a pectoral injury, so his power is still an unknown. And then there was the generally useless Wonderlic. Given concerns about his mental makeup a nine isn’t a great sign. The bust potential here is off the charts.

Dan Feeney: If not for a concussion that cost him four games last season, he might have been a potential first-round pick. It’s an injury that scares teams, so it will cost Feeney. Otherwise, he’s a four year starter and prototypical right guard. If he can stay on the field there is no reason for him to fail at the next level.

Taylor Moton: He’ll get a shot to start at right tackle. He has excellent power, but was somewhat vulnerable against speed. NFL coaching might be able to fix that. If not, he’s shown himself to be a quality right guard, which isn’t that bad of a floor once you get past the first round. I expect him to be a productive player and would be very happy if he fell to the Jets in the third round.

Dion Dawkins: Had some awesome moments on film. Best highlight package of any lineman in the draft. Two major problems: 1. Gets beat far too often. It’s not just speed rushers beating him around the edge. There are times when it looks like he isn’t cognizant of his responsibility on the play and takes himself out of position. 2. Doesn’t have the proper physique to play tackle, or the quickness to play guard. Overall, he has NFL-level talent, but finding the right fit is going to be key. High ceiling if a team can maximize his talent.

Antonio Garcia: Scouts are all over the place on him, with good reason. He was a lightly regarded prospect who has improved each year. He’s a natural left tackle in a draft lacking them. The step up from Troy to the NFL is huge, but the NFL needs left tackles, so look for someone to roll the dice on him earlier in the draft than his current skill level would suggest. Like Dawkins, he has a high ceiling, so a patient team could grab a long term left tackle at a budget price. I think he’s a worthy gamble.

Ethan Pocic: For a guy rated as the top center in the draft Pocic got his ass kicked on film a lot. Lamp is going to be off the board well before Pocic, but if I needed a center, I think I’d rather gamble that Lamp can hold the position down. Pocic is versatile and can play guard or tackle if asked. Thing is, I don’t particularly like him at either of those positions. His height is also a concern, but the real problem is an NFL-quality nose tackle should eat him alive. I’d pass on Pocic.

Dorian Johnson: The more film I watched of him, the more I liked him. He doesn’t have the power to dominate people, but he was always where you wanted him to be. Played clean and drew very few flags. He definitely needs to get stronger, but that’s something a NFL strength coach can take care of, especially for his second season. I’m a fan of Johnson and expect him to succeed in the NFL.

Roderick Johnson: Played against elite competition at Florida State. You’d think their starting left tackle would have a better draft grade, but he wasn’t all that dominant. He looks the part with great size and length, but then you watch the film. He might be a better fit for right tackle in the NFL, but it is hard to tell. I wouldn’t take him until the later rounds.