AFC South:
Jacksonville Jaguars: 10-7
Tennessee Titans: 8-9
Indianapolis Colts: 6-10
Houston Texans: 6-10
During the first eight years of its existence, the AFC South went 238-182 vs. the other divisions. Its only collective losing season was its first, when Houston went 4-12 as a new expansion team.
Since then, the AFC South has gone 285-399 vs. the other divisions. It’s been bad. The past three years in particular have been rough, with the division going 61-103. Perhaps one day the AFC South will return to respectability. I doubt it will happen in 2023.
Houston Texans:
2022 Record: 3-13-1
Projections:
Scouting Wins: 7.16
DVOA Wins: 5.6
FPI Wins: 6.45
Market Wins: 6.04
Implied Pythag: 29.55%
The Texans beat the Colts week 18. That knocked them to second in the draft order. I am not sure if the Texans would have been interested in trading with the Panthers. I do know that what followed is an absolute travesty.
The draft started reasonably well for the Texans. They selected quarterback C.J. Stroud with the #2 pick. From my draft snippets:
2. Houston Texans: QB CJ Stroud: Stroud would have been my first overall pick, so I can’t fault the Texans for selecting him second overall. The main argument against Stroud is that he’s already played with the best WR corps he’ll ever have, so his production at Ohio State was on easy mode. I can’t really rebut that, save to say that Stroud himself looked good on film. He’ll need to improve his anticipation, which is something his coaches will work on with him.
Before the draft there has been rumors that Houston was very interested in taking Alabama defensive end Will Anderson with the #2 pick. I would have considered that an error given the huge disparity in positional value. Quarterback simply is the most important position on the roster. The rational move is to take all of the potentially elite quarterback prospects before the other positions come off the board. The only exception is if you are already set at quarterback, and you are unable to find a trade partner at a reasonable price. This brings me to the #3 overall pick.
3. Houston Texans: DE Will Anderson: The Arizona Cardinals went into the draft with the #3 pick. It was understood that they wanted to trade it. The presumption was that a QB-hungry team would trade up for QB2 or QB3. It turned out that the Cardinals were the beneficiary of one of the weirdest trades I can remember? But why? Why did Houston feel the need to give up the #12 and #33 picks, as well as their 2024 first-round pick for Will Anderson?
Full disclosure, I had Anderson as the #1 non-QB on the board:
Even so, I thought this trade was insane. What’s even stranger is that rumors of it may have leaked before the draft. People dialed in to the Texans have suggested that there was an organizational dispute as to what to do with the #2 pick. Some people wanted CJ Stroud. Others wanted Anderson. When viewed in that light, trading up with Arizona could be considered a unifying move. Both groups got their man, so let’s move forward with a large talent infusion on both sides of the ball. Presumably something like that is how the trade got sold.
(Editor’s note: The Texans also got the #105 pick and gave up a 2024 third-round pick. I am considering that a wash.)
THAT IS INSANE! Absolutely fucking bonkers. I need to break this down:
1. Quarterbacks are more valuable than defensive ends. I know I said that earlier, but I feel the need to repeat myself.
2. It’s fine to disagree on the merits of various prospects. If some members of the Texans preferred Anthony Richardson to CJ Stroud, I would have understood. At least then we agree that we have to take a quarterback and discuss which one. That’s a healthy debate! The correct move with the #2 pick in this draft was to take QB2. Which is what the Texans did!
3. The #12, #33, and 2024 first-round pick is an enormous cost. If a team gave that up to take Anthony Richardson at #3, that would have been understandable. You paid what it cost to get your potential franchise quarterback. To pay that for a defensive end is indefensible.
There are additional rumors that the Texans, if forced to choose, would have gone with Anderson over Stroud. Technically, they took Stroud first, but the rumor is that they had a deal in place with Arizona and took Stroud first for leverage reasons. In other words, they took Stroud first to prevent another team from swaying Arizona and offering even more for the pick.
Perhaps that should have been their clue that giving this much up for a defensive end wasn’t a wise decision.
Arizona deserves some credit for parlaying the #3 pick into such an impressive haul. As for Houston: F.
The Texans’ organization is incompetent in ways that will doom them going forward. This is an organization that has never appeared in the AFC Championship Game. They’ve been around for 21 years. Sometimes they’ll get lucky and hit on a franchise quarterback. If they do, they might get to host the Saturday 4:35 wildcard game. They’ve done so six times before. At some point, the NFL might want to formally assign that time slot to the AFC South.
What the Texans won’t do is build an elite team. That’s hard to do when you give up multiple high first-round picks & more to grab a rookie defensive end.
In the short term, the Texans acquired two of the top players in the draft. Let’s start with quarterback CJ Stroud:
CJ Stroud: There’s a lot that goes into being a successful NFL quarterback. You can have prototype size, strength, and accuracy, and still fail if you’re unable to read defenses and make quick decisions. College production, even against high-level competition, does not guarantee success.
The reason I bring this up is to whine about the fact that I have a track record of overrating Ohio State quarterbacks. In recent history this applies to Justin Fields and the late Dwayne Haskins. Now, in the case of Fields one might argue that he hasn’t been given a fair shot to succeed in the NFL.
However, he still fell in the draft relative to where I would have selected him. That may be the case for CJ Stroud as well.
I can’t find fault with Stroud’s production:
2021: 317 completions, 4,435 yards, 10.1 YPA, 44 TD, 6 INT, 187.6 EPA (in 12 games)
2022: 258 completions, 3,688 yards, 9.5 YPA, 41 TD, 6 INT, 119.3 EPA (in 13 games)
He only took 26 sacks in those 25 games. For the most part Stroud is a pocket passer who doesn’t threaten you with his legs. One of the main knocks on Stroud is his performance under pressure. He is reluctant to throw to targets that aren’t clearly open. However, Stroud’s overall results show he’s been effective at avoiding getting pressured to begin with.
Size isn’t an issue for Stroud. He might be a little lighter than the prototype, but he’s well within NFL standards.
Stroud has the arm strength, accuracy, and touch the NFL is looking for. He can comfortably throw short, medium, or long, and adjust his velocity to whatever best suits the receiver and the play design.
In the biggest game of his collegiate career, Stroud shined, going 23-34 for 348 yards and four touchdowns against Georgia. He showed off more mobility than the Bulldogs expected. When he needed to perform late in the clutch, he led a 44-yard drive in 35 seconds. At that point, his coach choked, and their kicker followed suit.
Like Young, Stroud’s team had a talent advantage on a weekly basis. That may have led Stroud to become too conservative, waiting for his receivers to break open. In the NFL, he’ll need to improve his anticipation.
One of the main arguments against Stroud is that he’s already had the best wide receiver corps he’s ever going to have. In the NFL, he’ll have worse weapons, going against much better defenses. This is a real concern.
The second issue is his S2 score, so let me be explicit: I consider the S2 to be nonsense. I’m not alone:
If teams want to take it seriously, fine. That’s their choice. I will not.
I can live with Bryce Young going ahead of Stroud. Young is capable of playing a beautiful brand of football, and if you think he’ll be able to withstand the rigors of the NFL, more power to you. I can even live with Anthony “Ham Cannon” Richardson going ahead of Stroud. Richardson’s ceiling is the Sistine Chapel. But Stroud is the most complete and trustworthy product in the draft. He’s NFL-ready, with measurables you can trust. QB1.
Now, let me admit that Stroud hasn’t impressed with his processing speed this preseason. It’s been somewhere between deliberate and glacial. He’ll need some time to adjust to the speed of the NFL. He’ll also need to adjust to the fact that his wide receiver corps doesn’t outclass the opposition.
It’s tough to find a true #1WR on the Texans’ roster. 2021 third-round pick Nico Collins has struggled with injuries. The Texans’ quarterbacks were a collective 517 yards below replacement-level last season. As such, I am not going to hold Collins’s 2022 performance against him:
2021: 33 receptions, 406 yards, -4.0 +/-, -7.7% DVOA, 25 DYAR (in 14 games)
2022: 37 receptions, 481 yards, -3.0 +/-, -13.0% DVOA, -2 DYAR (in 10 games)
Collins has had trouble generating separation. That’s a bad flaw to have (see Treadwell, Laquon). Perhaps a few years of experience and better health will allow him to find a new gear.
2022 second-round pick John Metchie is coming back from an ACL tear and leukemia. He wasn’t able to play in 2022. I hope he still has the athleticism he flashed at Alabama. If the ACL tear took away some of his agility, he’ll have a very tough time succeeding in the NFL.
Premium free-agent pickup Robert Woods might prove to be a disappointment. Let’s look back at his past two seasons:
2021: 45 receptions, 556 yards, +0.7 +/-, 12.7% DVOA, 139 DYAR (in nine games)
2022: 53 receptions, 527 yards, -1.7 +/-, -16.5% DVPA, -27 DYAR
He was with the Rams in 2021. Things were going well with Stafford and McVay before a knee injury ended his season. The Rams shipped him to Tennessee for a sixth-round pick. That didn’t really work out for Woods. He’ll try to rejuvenate his career in Houston. I’m concerned that even at his peak, Woods was nothing more than a serviceable slot receiver in a good situation.
Rookie third-round pick Tank Dell is another option:
Nathaniel “Tank” Dell: Oh dear. That is not the physical profile teams are looking for. But the production…
2021: 137 targets, 90 receptions, 1,330 yards, 12 TD’s, 79.7 EPA
2022: 154 targets, 108 receptions, 1,399 yards, 17 TD’s, 66.9 EPA
Houston doesn’t face the toughest of competition, so there are some questions of whether Tank can beat NFL defensive coverage. There’s also the issue of 19 drops over the past two seasons. With small hands it’s something that will remain a concern.
Tank did most of his damage working out of the slot. Presumably that’s where he would begin his career in the NFL. He also can provide some value returning punts, and possibly kicks as well.
To me Dell is a test of how much size matters for receivers in the NFL. Of course, if he has a fumbling problem (an issue at Houston), then he probably won’t see much playing time. I’ve given him a day-three grade, but he’ll probably be gone by then. I don’t think I’d have the guts to pull the trigger before round four. Maybe I’d be missing out. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
At least Dell didn’t have to travel far.
I am not sure why rookie sixth-round pick Xavier Hutchinson fell so far in the draft:
Xavier Hutchinson: Productive, yet frustrating. Hutchinson saw his drop rate spike in 2022 as he became a more focal point of the offense:
2020: 93 targets, 64 receptions, 771 yards, 4 TD’s, 22.2 EPA, 3 drops
2021: 104 targets, 82 receptions, 986 yards, 5 TD’s, 31.7 EPA, 3 drops
2022: 163 targets, 107 receptions, 1,171 yards, 6 TD’s, 33.9 EPA, 9 drops
His yards-per-target cratered, going from 9.5 to 7.2, despite his ADOT rising from 7.7 to 8.9. I know I’m throwing a lot of numbers at you. The main point is that Hutchinson was roughly as useful to the offense in 2022 as he was in 2021, despite seeing 59 more targets. He had the opportunity to have a monster season, but it wasn’t to be.
In Hutchinson’s defense, defenses knew Iowa State would be sending the ball his way. Hutchinson saw a lot of targets when I would not have classified him as “open.” He’s one of the few players in the draft who might have an easier time in the NFL due to less defensive attention. Hutchinson has decent size and athleticism. I would have expected him to be a more aggressive run blocker than he showed on film.
Hutchinson projects as a solid possession receiver who can work inside or outside. Perhaps his greatest strength is his versatility. He can win with strength, agility, or technique. He does a nice job of adjusting to balls in flight. His biggest weakness is his lack of a top gear to threaten defenses deep. Expect opponents to sit on the short routes until he proves he can punish them for it.
Hutchinson is a player with a fairly high floor. I trust he’ll be able to produce at the next level. I would be comfortable taking him late day two.
On this roster, Hutchinson should compete for playing time early in the season.
Free-agent pickup Noah Brown will provide depth.
The Texans procured the services of new #1TE Dalton Schultz:
2022: 57 receptions, 577 yards, -4.1 +/-, -9.2% DVOA, -12 DYAR
Schultz has had a weird career. From 2018-2020 he produced -10 DYAR. In 2021 he was great (20.3% DVOA, 190 DYAR). Last season he fell back to Earth. I have a feeling he’s not going to recreate the magic in Houston.
2022 fifth-round pick Taegan Quitoriano will provide depth.
With a feculent passing game, the Texans running game struggled to find space. It too was below replacement-level (-90 DYAR). 2022 fourth-round pick Dameon Pierce will once again get the bulk of the snaps:
2022: 259 squid, 1,104 yards, -12.4% DVOA, -36 DYAR (in 13 games)
Free-agent pickup Devin Singletary will provide depth:
2022: 229 squid, 1,099 yards, 1.2% DVOA, 120 DYAR (in 16 games)
If he reproduces that stat line, he’ll be a hero.
There are a few things to like about the Texans’ offensive line.
Left tackle Laremy Tunsil is excellent.
Right tackle Tytus Howard isn’t bad.
Free-agent pickup right guard Shaq Mason is solid.
Rookie second-round pick center Juice Scruggs should prove to be an upgrade over Scott Quessenberry.
That still leaves 2022 first-round pick left guard Kenyon Green. He absolutely sucked. I can only hope it was rookie jitters and he plays to his potential this season.
If nothing else, this line has plenty of room for improvement over last season. Free-agent pickup George Fant will provide depth outside. Rookie sixth-round pick Jarrett Patterson will provide depth inside:
Jarrett Patterson: Played at both center and left guard at Notre Dame. I’m unsure of where he’ll play in the NFL. Judging by his combine he might end up being a better fit at guard, short arms and all. He was a flag magnet in 2021 at center, but cleaned up his play in 2022 at left guard. It could also be a matter of development.
On film he looked… fine? Not dominant. His technique seemed fine. Patterson’s bad plays seemed less an issue of him making a mistake and more an issue of him being overmatched. That’s a bad sign as mistakes can be corrected, but talent is harder to acquire.
Patterson’s versatility makes him a fourth-round value to me. Even if he isn’t a day one starter, he’ll provide quality depth while he develops.
(Update: Oh boy. Juice Scruggs and Kenyon Green are both hurt and will start the season on IR. The Texans traded for Steelers backup Kendrick Green. Green might start at either center or left guad. Rookie sixth-round pick Jarrett Patterson is another option at center. Josh Jones is an option at guard.)
The Texans actually had a reasonable pass-rush last season. Rookie first-round pick Will Anderson will be the new headliner:
Will Anderson: Dominant in 2021, with 17.5 sacks and 31 tackles for a loss in 15 games. Very good in 2022, with 10 sacks and 17 tackles for a loss in 13 games. I’d feel a lot better about Anderson as a prospect if those numbers were reversed.
It showed up on film too. Anderson was more explosive in 2021. In 2022 he still had the technique and power, but was clearly a diminished player.
A good 40-time and his overall production led Anderson to finish atop the SackSEER projections. Also, don’t sleep on those 33.875 inch arms, they’ve given him an edge. But even against the run, Anderson had an issue with missed tackles in 2022.
This showed up in other ways. He was pressing in 2022, getting flagged nine times in 13 games. This was after having only been flagged three times in the previous 28.
I’ll be blunt: Even the diminished version of Anderson is top-10 pick worthy. But the 2021 version is the premier non-QB in the draft.
I haven’t seen any discussion of nagging injuries. And to be clear, Anderson was a two-time SEC Defensive Player of the Year. He was still quite good in 2022. Just not the player he was in 2021.
Given the positional value and possibility that 2022 was what counts for an off year for Anderson, I’d be fine making him the first non-QB off the board.
Anderson will be joining Jerry Hughes (nine sacks, 33 hits+hurries), 2020 third-round pick Jonathan Greenard (1.5 sacks, 11 hits+hurries), and free-agent pickups Jacob Martin (2.5 sacks, 15 hits+hurries), and Chase Winovich (one sack, eight hits+hurries). Hughes turned 35 in August and will need Jonathan Greenard to take a larger part of the load.
Rookie fourth-round pick Dylan Horton will provide depth:
Dylan Horton: Horton had 10.5 sacks last season at TCU (15 games). Decent combine. When I watched the film I saw the proverbial “high-motor” guy who gave his best effort every play. Horton came to college as a 200 pound safety and finished with four sacks in the National Semifinal against Michigan. (We will ignore the Championship Game per TCU’s request.)
Horton has a fair amount of scheme and positional versatility. The flip side of that is that he’s still developing his skills and will need some time to develop them to an NFL level.
There’s a natural risk of bias towards liking players who give their best every play, even if they aren’t elite talents. It’s something to be careful of, as the step up to the NFL is steep, and effort isn’t enough. My sense is that Horton should develop into a quality contributor and I’d be fine taking him outside of the top 100.
Premium free-agent pickup defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins (three sacks, 17 hits+hurries) will join Maliek Collins (3.5 sacks, 18 hits+hurries) on the defensive line. 2021 sixth-round pick Roy Lopez and free-agent pickup Hassan Ridgeway will provide depth.
The Texans have a reasonably solid defensive line. They paid through the nose for it, though.
They also have a surprisingly strong linebacker corps. Christian Kirksey played well last year. The Texans finally got a full season from him. He’ll be joined by free-agent pickup Denzel Perryman. Like Kirksey, Perryman is a reliable tackler and a seasoned veteran.
2022 third-round pick Christian Harris did a fine job in coverage. His speed and range are a boon to the defense.
The Texans gave the Jets a sixth-round pick to acquire Blake Cashman. Cashman had three sacks last season in limited usage.
Rookie fifth-round pick Henry To’oTo’o gives the Texans another interesting option:
Henry To’oTo’o: A modern linebacker, trading size for speed. Produced 205 tackles and 6.5 sacks in 28 games for the Crimson Tide. Henry can’t be expected to take on offensive linemen and still make a play. In fact, running backs were generally able to block him effectively. Henry was at his best working in space.
Henry did a fine job of diagnosing running plays, reacting quickly and getting to the spot. His zone pass coverage skills aren’t quite on the same level. He was better in man coverage where his natural athleticism helped cover up some of his mistakes.
Henry doesn’t have the traditional level of power teams are looking for inside. He played outside at Tennessee before transferring to Alabama. He might have to do so in the NFL. That will mitigate some of his issues navigating traffic, while still allowing him to show off his range.
I think Henry is a bit of a niche prospect. He has to naturally fit what your defense is asking of him. I don’t see him as a LB/S hybrid, nor as a true inside linebacker. Having said that, he brings plenty of athleticism with a wide range of experience. Without a natural fit, I’d take him around the middle of third round.
I think To’oTo’o was a nice value pick.
Budget free-agent acquisition Cory Littleton will provide depth.
I’m trying to figure out what to make of 2022 first-round pick #1CB Derek Stingly. He was awesome in 2019. Fell off quite a bit after that. A Lisfranc injury cut his college career short. He put up poor results before a hamstring injury ended his season. He still has the potential to be an elite cover corner. It’s also possible that 2019 was his peak and he’ll never play at that level again. The Texans are hoping he’s healthy and still getting better.
Stingly will start across from Steven Nelson. I thought Nelson was mediocre in 2022.
Slot cornerback Desmond King did a decent job. I’d like more consistency from him this season. Two interceptions buys him some slack.
The Texans added Shaquill Griffin for depth. Let me tell you, he did not impress me last year.
Tavierre Thomas looked very good after returning from a quadriceps injury. He might deserve more playing time.
I’m very excited about the new safety pairing. 2022 second-round pick free safety Jalen Ward had five interceptions last season. There’s plenty of room for growth, too. He’ll pair with free-agent Jimmy Ward. Ward had three interceptions himself and did a fine job in coverage.
M.J. Stewart and Eric Murray will provide depth.
Punter Cameron Johnston is one the best in the league.
(Update: He’ll start the season on IR. The Texans are currently dumpster diving for a replacement.)
Kicker Ka’imi Fairbairn bounced back from a terrible 2021. He was fantastic last season. The Texans also did a fine job of taking advantage of the new kickoff rules with excellent coverage.
It’s not clear who will handle the return duties. Steven Sims, Desmond King, and Tank Dell are all getting looks.
The Texans look to have an NFL-level defense and a division III offense. I’m keeping my expectations low for CJ Stroud’s rookie campaign. There’s not a lot of talent around him. The offensive line should be solid, though.
I like the front-seven. It’s possible the secondary will be quite good as well, especially if Stingley plays to his potential. A soft division should provide the Texans with some fair fights. I expect them to take a step towards mediocrity. 6-11.
Indianapolis Colts:
2022 Record: 3-13-1
Projections:
Scouting Wins: 7.16
DVOA Wins: 5.6
FPI Wins: 6.45
Market Wins: 6.04
Implied Pythag: 29.55%
2022 Indianapolis Colts quarterback:
2022: 3,854 yards, 17 TD, 20 INT, 5.1 NY/P, -30.8% DVOA, -926 DYAR
Please understand that Matt Ryan did not give this offense a viable chance to succeed. Sam Ehlinger and Nick Foles were even worse. The future is bright, though:
Anthony Richardson: We’ve never had a prospect anywhere close to Richardson. I’m not just talking about his insane combine. Cam Newton had a lot of similarities, if not the raw speed. But Newton was polished. He won the NJCAA Championship at Blinn College and followed that up with a BCS Championship at Auburn. Richardson has completed a total of 215 passes for 3,105 yards in his collegiate career. Let’s take a look at last season:
2022: 176 completions, 2,549 yards, 7.8 YPA, 17 TD, 9 INT, 2.3 EPA
2022: 88 carries, 735 yards, 40.8 EPA
Richardson averaged more yards per carry than yards per pass attempt. The truth is he’s still raw by collegiate standards, having dealt with numerous systems while at Florida. His accuracy is poor because his mechanics are terrible. He’s going to need years of training to get up to speed… is the narrative about Richardson.
Let’s break it down. Richardson’s passing numbers are better than they might appear. His receivers let him down quite a bit. That should be less of an issue in the pros.
His mechanics really do need quite a bit of work. Part of the problem is he has so much arm strength that he hasn’t had to learn proper footwork. This is a fixable issue.
The thing I want to focus on is the quality of Richardson’s decision-making. It was often excellent. For a guy who hasn’t had a lot of reps, he showed a solid understanding of both protection and coverage concepts. He also knew where to put the ball to beat coverage and protect his receiver.
Having said all of that, yes, he’s still fairly raw. His accuracy on short passes is N/A. Florida’s offensive system didn’t have many short routes (1-10 yards) for Richardson to target. When he did, the results weren’t great. Now let me again note that Richardson got very little help from his receivers or from his offensive coaches. This is an area where he’ll likely improve quite a bit in the pros.
Richardson did a great job of avoiding sacks. He could have rushed much more often than he did. Usually he repositioned himself in the pocket and looked to make a play downfield. And when he did take off? The defense now had quite the challenge.
It’s not just his rushing skills that make Richardson worth the risk and the effort. When he did manage to get his body in sync, he threw an absolutely beautiful ball. The arm talent here is exceptional. If Richardson can fix his mechanics and learn how to read defenses at an NFL-level, he’s a Dragon-level threat to the rest of his division.
If.
That’s the rub with Richardson. If he were as polished as Young, he’d be the most prized first-overall pick in the history of the NFL. As is, we’re talking about a quarterback who made 13 starts in college. His offense was… let’s be kind and say it was a work in progress. If you want to argue that’s he picked up some bad “hero-ball” habits at Florida, I’d have to concede the point. Again, this is something coaching and reps can fix.
His pre-snap reading skills will also improve with reps. I’m a broken record on this, because we’re dealing with a prospect who’s only made 13 starts.
The footwork is the big thing, though. Once that gets corrected, passes will stop sailing, and the rest of his game can develop. Richardson is the highest upside prospect in this draft. Does that make him worthy of the #1 overall pick? Probably not, given how polished Stroud and Young are. But once they’re gone, there’s no quarterback who has a better risk-reward profile than Richardson. And yet, Levis might go second, while we have no real idea of where Richardson ends up.
Richardson won’t turn 21 until May. He’s my QB3 because I’m a gutless coward. If I had the balls God gave the common prairie dog, I’d have Richardson ahead of Young. As is, he’d be my third quarterback off the board, and my third selection overall.
He’s a project with unprecedented upside. The Colts are now tasked with rehabbing and polishing Richardson’s game. They got lucky in that the Texans selected Will Anderson third, this allowing them to draft QB3. However, one of the requirements of getting lucky is that you take a risk. In this case, the Colts declined to pay whatever it would have cost to swap picks and move up to #3. Good for them.
Free-agent pickup Gardner Minshew will provide depth.
Richardson will be working with a talented young receiver corps. 2020 second-round pick Michael Pittman is looking to return to his glory days of 2021:
2021: 88 receptions, 1,082 yards, +6.7 +/-, 7.1% DVOA, 202 DYAR
2022: 99 receptions, 925 yards, -1.8 +/-, -13.2% DVOA, -6 DYAR (in 16 games)
2022 second-round pick Alex Pierce just wants an opportunity to succeed:
2022: 41 receptions, 593 yards, -5.9 +/-, -10.5% DVOA, 13 DYAR (in 16 games)
Pierce has great speed, but he has yet to show he can run a full route-tree. He might end up being used as a pure deep threat, as Richardson has the arm to beat defenses deep.
Rookie third-round pick Josh Downs gives the Colts a new option in the slot:
Josh Downs: A green athletic profile across the board, save for size. Elite slot production (195 receptions, 2,364 yards, 19 TD’s, 106.7 EPA on 264 targets over the past two seasons.) Downs had a bit of an issue with drops in 2021 (10 drops) but appeared to clean that up in 2022, dropping only 3 balls. Elite in space. Should be able to provide value returning punts.
Small slot receivers are becoming more common in the NFL. Downs will have to adjust to facing more aggressive press coverage. He’s developed an impressive ability to win in traffic, doing an excellent job of attacking the ball in flight.
Downs can create separation with his speed. That forced defensive backs to give him a cushion, which he took advantage of underneath. Downs can also stress the defense via pre-snap motion. He’s a top-tier athlete with certain size limitations.
Given his ability to provide value on special teams, I’m fine grabbing Downs late day one. Of course, that’s contingent on me having a need for another slot receiver.
I was very surprised Downs fell to the back half of day two. A good deal for the Colts.
They also signed budget slot option Isaiah McKenzie:
2022: 42 receptions, 423 yards, -1.4 +/-, 5.2% DVOA, 93 DYAR (in 15 games)
McKenzie will likely split time with Dobbs while Dobbs adjusts to the speed of the NFL.
Budget free-agent pickup Breshad Perriman and 2021 seventh-round round pick Mike Strachan will provide depth.
A hamstring injury has slowed 2022 third-round pick tight end Jelani Woods:
2022: 25 receptions, 312 yards, +0.4 +/-, -10.0% DVOA, -7 DYAR (in 15 games)
He hasn’t been able to play this preseason, which has dropped him on the depth chart.
2021 fourth-round pick Kylen Granson will likely start the season as TE1:
2022: 31 receptions, 302 yards, +3.2 +/-, -8.7% DVOA, -4 DYAR (in 13 games)
Mo Alie-Cox is another option:
2022: 19 receptions, 189 yards, -0.9 +/-, -14.4% DVOA, -13 DYAR
The Colts have a number of options. We’ll have to wait and see who eventually earns the trust of the coaching staff.
I am not sure what will happen with 2020 second-round pick running back Jonathan Taylor. Taylor crushed in 2021:
2021: 383 squid, 2,171 yards, 21.1% DVOA, 532 DYAR
Last season the Colts’ offense collapsed and took Taylor with it:
2022: 232 squid, 1,004 yards, -8.8% DVOA, -8 DYAR (in 11 games)
Taylor wants a new contract. The Colts are reluctant to pay him, but they still value him as a trade piece. They are reportedly asking for a first-round pick or equivalent value back in trade. Of course, that’s likely just a negotiating position. But any team trading for Taylor would also have to give him a new deal, or else they will be in the same spot the Colts are in.
If he stays, he’ll take some of the load off of Richardson. If he’s traded, look for Zach Moss and Deon Jackson to split his carries. Rookie fifth-round pick Evan Hull should get some looks on third down. He’s a speedster with plenty of receiving experience.
2022 third-round pick Bernhard Raimann wasn’t ready to start at left tackle last season. The Colts didn’t have any good options, so they threw him out there. He got demolished. The hope is that he’ll have learned from his many mistakes, and will be a much better player in 2023.
It was a bit of an off-year for left guard Quentin Nelson. I still rate him as one of the best in the league.
Center Ryan Kelly was excellent in 2020, sucked in 2021, and finished third in my rankings last season. Go figure!
2021 seventh-round pick right guard Will Fries finished outside of my top 32. Let’s leave it at that. It’s a bad sign for the Colts that he kept his job.
I like right tackle Braden Smith. His numbers were poor last season, but I attribute that to the quarterbacks putting him in tough spots. I expect him to bounce back this season blocking for Anthony Richardson.
Rookie fourth-round pick Blake Freeland will provide depth:
Blake Freeland: I’m wondering how much weight he can add to his frame. 6’8, 302 pounds makes for a very unusual prospect.
As you might imagine, Freeland was not a dominant run-blocker. It was tough for him to gain proper leverage against a moving target. He’ll need to add another 20+ pounds to possibly have the power needed to hold down a tackle job in the NFL. I do NOT see moving inside as an option for Freeland.
On the plus side, Freeland is very tall, which must be nice. He’s also a very good athlete, which makes me wonder if he might be able to move even further outside, to tight end. Freeland used to be a quarterback and has gained 100+ pounds in his effort to play tackle. At tight end, he could shed 20+ pounds, gain back some speed, and still be an elite blocker for the position. Obviously, it’s a lot to ask of someone still learning his current position. It’s just a thought for such an unusual prospect.
My expectation is that Freeland puts on some weight and sticks at right tackle for a team that doesn’t need him to run-block. As such, he looks like a third-round value.
I have to say, I love the idea of the Colts using Freeland in 6OL sets where he’s an eligible receiver.
The Colts’ defense has been steadily deteriorating from -9.5% DVOA in 2020 to -4.9% DVOA in 2021 to -0.9% DVOA in 2022.
Defensive ends Samson Ebukam (five sacks, 34 hits+hurries) and 2021 first-round pick Kwity Paye (six sacks, 25 hits+hurries) will have to step up to replace the departed Yannick Ngakoue (9.5 sacks, 35 hits+hurries).
Further development from 2021 second-round pick Dayo Odeyingbo (five sacks, 25 hits+hurries) would help as well.
The oft-injured Tyquon Lewis will provide depth, as will budget free-agent pickup Al-Quadin Muhammad and rookie sixth-round pick Titus Leo. Leo will need some time to adjust to NFL competition after playing his college ball at Wagner.
Things are a bit better at defensive tackle. Star DT DeForest Buckner (eight sacks, 44 hits+hurries) will pair with Grover Stewart (four sacks, 14 hits+hurries). Free-agent pickup Taven Bryan (three sacks, 16 hits+hurries) will provide depth.
Rookie fourth-round pick Adetomiwa Adebawore will likely join the rotation as well:
Adetomiwa Adebawore: 9.5 sacks over the past two seasons. Tremendous athlete, either at defensive end or at defensive tackle. In general, 280+ pound men do not run this fast. Adebawore is a legitimate superfreak who doesn’t have a natural position.
His athleticism showed up on film. So did his inexperience. Dude missed a ton of tackles by taking poor angles and not having proper body control. Some players have great football instincts. Adebawore doesn’t, at least not yet. Perhaps he’ll develop them with more reps.
Adebawore doesn’t have the natural flexibility you’d like at edge. This defaults him to trying to win with power. His upside here is that with a better developed set of moves and counters, you have a player who can overpower offensive tackles or blow by them. However, his new team might elect to have Adebawore bulk up and work as a pash-rush defensive tackle.
Right now Adebawore is a bit raw. He’ll need some time to reach his full potential. When he does, his upside is an elite pass-rush defensive tackle with the versatility to kick outside when needed. I’m not worried about his height, as it will allow him to get low when needed.
My love of “planet theory” bumps Adebawore into the mid-fifties for me. I’m fine taking him in the back half of round two.
I liked this selection quite a bit.
I’m a little worried about the Colts’ linebacker corps. Shaquille Leonard missed almost all of last season due to back issues. When healthy, he’s excellent. He’ll start alongside Zaire Franklin and E.J. Speed. Franklin has developed into a decent player. Speed would be a backup on a better roster. We may see the Colts play a fair amount of base 4-2-5 to hide some of the weaknesses here.
The Colts are keeping us guessing as to who will start at cornerback. I’m guessing rookie second-round pick Julius Brents will win one of the jobs outside:
Julius Brents: The size and length that the NFL desires. Coming off of a solid season at Kansas State (four interceptions, -13.2 EPA on 41 targets, -0.32 EPA-per-target.)
Brents has played both man and zone, showing off strengths and weaknesses in each. In man, he can take advantage of his reach and knock receivers off of their routes in press coverage. However, his lack of elite speed can bite him downfield. Also, he didn’t do a great job of adjusting to balls in flight. Interceptions aside, he could have had more pass breakups if he’d been more aware of where the ball was.
In zone coverage, his fluid movements give him great positioning. The agility he showed off at the combine was visible on film. However, he had a bad habit of being too attuned to the quarterback and not aware enough of the receivers in his range.
Both aggressive and effective in run support. If there’s a weakness here, it’s his preference for making the big hit instead of using proper form and technique.
Right now I’d trust Brents more in zone coverage than in man-to-man. Once he learns to be more consistent in his jamming skills, he projects to be a solid #2CB. Early third-round value.
Presuming Kenny Moore returns to the slot, that leaves four men competing to start across from Brents:
2022 undrafted free-agent Darrell Baker
2022 undrafted free-agent Dallis Flowers
Rookie fifth-round pick Darius Rush
Rookie seventh-round pick Jaylon Jones
Jaylon Jones: Not to be confused with the 2022 Ole Miss cornerback UDFA who signed with the Bears. That Jaylon Jones ran a 4.41 40. This one is a converted safety.
The film suggests he might have to return to his old position. He was flagged five times on only 18 targets last season. Woof! His technique is far from fundamentally sound.
I’d excuse that if Jones played like a box safety, but he only averaged three tackles a game throughout his college career. He didn’t have the range or the proper tackling technique to be a difference-maker against the run.
It’s not all bad for Jones. He had a pair of interceptions in 2021. He has NFL-level size and length. It’s just that poor footwork and only moderate athleticism put him at a disadvantage. I view him as depth at cornerback with some potential upside as a safety. Fifth-round value.
Darius Rush is a converted wide receiver. Elite speed. Rush might have some value in zone schemes where he gets to attack the ball.
Brents has been slowed by a hamstring injury, so we may see a Baker-Flowers pairing. That would be something.
2022 seventh-round pick Rodney Thomas played a deep free safety. He managed four interceptions. I’d like to see the Colts move him a bit closer to the line of scrimmage.
2020 third-round pick strong safety Julian Blackmon has never impressed me. In a deeper unit, he might be pressed for playing time.
2022 third-round pick Nick Cross will provide depth.
I have to say this defensive backfield gives me the willies. The Colts saw safety Rodney McLeod depart in free agency, and they traded away cornerback Stephon Gilmore. McLeod did excellent work for them last season. The Colts are in desperate need of cornerbacks. This could be a real problem for them.
Punter Rigoberto Sanchez returns after missing last season with a torn Achilles. He was fine in 2021.
I am a little surprised that the Colts are putting kicker Matt Gay in a training camp battle with Lucas Havrisik. I expect Gay to win it. He’s been quite good for the past few years.
I expect Isaiah McKenzie will return punts and Dallis Flowers will return kicks. We might see McKenzie on kicks as well. Josh Downs is also an option for both return jobs. The Colts’ special teams look solid.
I have to tell you, that defense has me shook. The Colts’ back-seven looks thin. The offense will almost certainly be improved. I am concerned that the defense will keep falling. With Anthony Richardson, brighter days are almost assuredly ahead. Not in 2023, though. 6-11.
Jacksonville Jaguars:
2022 Record: 9-8
Projections:
Scouting Wins: 8.76
DVOA Wins: 9.6
FPI Wins: 9.5
Market Wins: 9.69
Implied Pythag: 53.42%
It’s amazing what having a real NFL head coach can do. Freed from the incompetent Urban Meyer, the Jaguars revealed themselves to be a dangerous football team. They won the AFC South, which allowed them to host the Chargers in the Saturday night (!) wildcard game. It started poorly, with the Chargers holding a 27-7 halftime lead. The Chargers got conservative in the second half, allowing the Jaguars to mount a furious comeback. Jacksonville eventually won, 31-30.
The Jaguars even managed to give the Chiefs a scare in the divisional round game. The future is looking bright in Jacksonville. It all starts with 2021 first-overall pick quarterback Trevor Lawrence:
2021: 3,641 yards, 12 TD, 17 INT, 5.4 NY/P, -19.5% DVOA, -321 DYAR
2022: 4,113 yards, 25 TD, 8 INT, 6.4 NY/P, 13.0% DVOA, 974 DYAR
Lawrence still made a ton of mistakes last season, but he was able to overcome them (just as the Jaguars overcame four interceptions in the wild card game). This year, he should be more polished. There’s some question as to whether or not he should be more aggressive running the ball. Lawrence clearly passes up some opportunities to tuck it and run, but perhaps the Jaguars don’t want to trade short-term yardage for long-term injury risk.
The Jaguars beefed up their receiver corps, trading for suspended Falcons receiver Calvin Ridley. I have serious issues with the NFL allowing this trade. I’ll try to keep my rant brief.
You don’t trade players, you trade contracts. That’s to say, you trade contractual rights. When Ridley was suspended, the Falcons lost their contractual rights to Ridley for 2022.
The Falcons had picked up Ridley’s fifth-year option, which meant his salary was guaranteed. When he was suspended, that money no longer counted against their salary cap in 2022.
As it was an indefinite suspension, the NFL would need to reinstate Ridley for him to be allowed to play again. This was accounted for in the trade language:
“On November 1, 2022, despite being suspended for at least the entire 2022 season, the Falcons traded Ridley to the Jacksonville Jaguars for conditional 2023 sixth-round and 2024 fourth-round picks. The 2023 pick can become a fifth-rounder if Ridley is reinstated and the 2024 pick can either become a third-round pick based on playing time or a second-round pick if he signs a long-term extension.”
This meant the trade compensation itself could vary depending on the league’s decision. That offends me in and of itself. A bigger issue is that a team could give up resources for an ineligible player who is never allowed to play again. The NFL did not have to reinstate Ridley.
When they did, his 2022 guaranteed salary was bumped to 2023. I have no issues with that, but I would not allow players suspended indefinitely to be traded, nor would I allow compensation to be altered by the league’s disciplinary decisions.
In any event, I doubt anyone else gives a shit, so I’ll move on.
Ridley will be looking to recapture his 2020 form:
2020: 90 receptions, 1,374 yards, +8.0 +/-, 6.7% DVOA, 230 DYAR (in 15 games)
Ridley had some serious personal issues in 2021, so I am going to look past his poor performance in five games. Ridley has looked very good this preseason and he’ll start the season as the Jaguars’ #1WR.
Slot receiver Christian Kirk had a decent first season in Jacksonville:
2022: 84 receptions, 1,108 yards, -0.5 +/-, 4.4% DVOA, 178 DYAR
Zay Jones also enjoyed the slot premium:
2022: 82 receptions, 823 yards, +3.2 +/-, -3.4% DVOA, 89 DYAR (in 16 games)
Jones was effective from the slot (9.3% DVOA), but ineffective outside (-23.7% DVOA).
I may have mentioned this earlier, but the slot is a cheat code. It is also a limited resource.
I expect Jamal Agnew will retain the WR4 job (-4.6% DVOA, 18 DYAR).
Adding Ridley should give the Jaguars’ passing game a significant boost. He gives them a legitimate outside receiver.
#1TE Evan Engram had an excellent first season in Jacksonville:
2022: 73 receptions, 766 yards, +2.0 +/-, 7.3% DVOA, 91 DYAR
Engram developed a strong bond with Lawrence. I expect they’ll build on it this season.
2021 fifth-round pick Luke Farrell will provide depth and rookie second-round pick Brenton Strange will provide depth. Strange is a better athlete than football player. I would not have touched him until day three.
2021 first-round pick running back Travis Etienne lost his rookie season to a Lisfranc injury. He showed what he could do in 2022:
2022: 265 squid, 1,441 yards, 2.7% DVOA, 153 DYAR
Etienne flashed his explosiveness, showing he’s fully recovered. I expect good things from him this year.
Rookie third-round pick Tank Bigsby will provide depth:
Tank Bigsby: Over the past two seasons Tank had 402 carries for 1,969 yards and 20 touchdowns. Decent combine. Doesn’t hesitate in the backfield. Had more than his fair share of big plays.
My problems with Tank are two-fold. First, Auburn tried to make him a bigger part of their receiving game. It went poorly (46 targets, 30 receptions, 180 yards, -17 EPA). Second, his pass protection skills get an incomplete at best.
It’s very hard to justify using a day-two pick on a running back who brings little to the passing game. That’s before we get into his history of fumbles.
I appreciate that Tank was able to run the ball against SEC defenses. Even so, day three selection for me.
I expect the Jaguars will use Tank as a change of pace.
Left tackle Cam Robinson will be suspended for the first four games of the season due to PED usage. I hope the Jaguars adhere to the old Nascar philosophy that if you ain’t cheatin’, you ain’t tryin’. When available, he’s an above-average LT.
2021 second-round pick Walker Little will start in Robinson’s stead. Little had a poor rookie campaign. He was a bit better in limited usage last season. The Jaguars will improve when Robinson returns.
2020 fourth-round pick Ben Bartch will start at left guard. Bartch missed most of last season with a knee injury. I didn’t think he was playing well pre-injury, but he did a fine job at right guard in 2021.
Tyler Shatley did a great job after replacing Bartch. Shatley was diagnosed with an irregular heartbeat. His return is uncertain.
2022 third-round pick center Luke Fortner had a fine rookie campaign, finishing ninth in my rankings. That’s a nice start to build on.
It was an off-year for right guard Brandon Scherff. He was playing through injuries and it showed. The Jaguars are hoping he can return to form this year.
Rookie first-round pick Anton Harrison will start at right tackle:
Anton Harrison: I will tell you right now that Harrison is one of the trickiest players for me to judge in this draft. The reason is that his responsibilities at Oklahoma are quite different than his responsibilities in the NFL will be, even at the same position (left tackle).
What I can tell you is that we’re looking at a pretty good athlete with decent measurables. Harrison learned how to play fast and recognize his role in the play. In the running game, Harrison was good at getting to the spot, but he lacked the power to dominate.
I see a wide range of outcomes for Harrison. He might end up adapting well to a traditional NFL offense. Alternatively, he might not be able to offer enough power or quickness to keep elite edge-rushers off his quarterback. I need to be clear on this: Harrison’s raw power is going to remain a question until he proves he can hold his own against NFL edge-rushers.
One thing I’ll note: he managed to pick up a fair amount of flags for someone playing in an offense designed to get the ball out quickly.
This is a case where whomever drafts him should show some patience while he adapts to the pro game. I see enough upside here where he should be worth a look around the middle of round two.
I’m guessing the Jaguars are gambling on Harrison’s upside as a potential left tackle. They don’t have a lot of offensive line depth, so he’s going to learn on the fly.
Budget free-agent pickup Josh Wells will provide depth once he comes back from his hip injury. This line desperately needs the starters to stay healthy.
Over the past four seasons, the Jaguars’ defense has ranked 29th, 31st, 31st, and 26th in DVOA. A weak pass-rush combined with poor coverage is a terrible combination.
2022 first-overall pick edge-rusher Travon Walker managed 3.5 sacks and 21 hits+hurries. Walker only had 9.5 sacks in college. Second-overall pick Aidan Hutchinson had 9.5 sacks and 41 hits+hurries for the Lions. I noted before the draft that I wouldn’t select Walker in the top 10. I can only hope that he works out for Jacksonville.
Walker will start across from Josh Allen (seven sacks, 61 hits+hurries). After that, things get a little tricky.
I’m expecting 2020 first-round pick K’Lavon Chaisson, 2021 fourth-round pick Jordan Smith, and rookie fifth-round pick Yasir Abdullah to provide depth.
Chaisson only has three sacks in three seasons. The Jaguars declined his fifth-year option. Smith has only played in two games for the Jaguars. Abdullah is undersized and likely will need time to develop.
Dawuane Smoot had five sacks (20 hits+hurries) last season, but he’s still recovering from an Achilles tear. He’s on the PUP list.
It’s not all bad news. Defensive lineman Roy Robertson-Harris (three sacks, 27 hits+hurries) and nose tackle Davon Hamilton were solid against the run. Folorunso Fatukasi did a fine job against the run as well.
Free-agent pickups Adam Gotsis and rookie fourth-round pick Tyler Lacy will provide depth at end. Rookie seventh-round pick Raymond Vahosek will provide depth at nose.
2022 first-round pick inside linebacker Devin Lloyd will again pair with Foyesade Oluokun. Lloyd started the season on fire, with two interceptions and 49 tackles in his first five games. He regressed quite a bit after that. I have hope that with a full season of development, Lloyd can become an impact player.
Oluokun had another excellent season, leading the league in tackles for the second straight year. He’s also solid in coverage. If Lloyd improves in his second season, this could be an elite pairing.
The Jaguars’ secondary is in a weird spot. 2021 second-round pick Tyson Campbell took a leap last season. He had a rough rookie campaign, but bounced back with a vengeance in 2022. Campbell had three interceptions and great coverage numbers.
Darius Williams was supposed to cover the slot. That didn’t work out. He moved outside, which worked out very well. He’ll start across from Campbell.
So, with two quality cornerbacks, what’s the problem? Well, there’s the issue of receivers/tight ends in the slot. They didn’t have anyone who could cover them, and I’m not sure that’s changed.
Tre Hemdon is going to get first crack at the job. I am skeptical he’ll be able to manage it.
2022 sixth-round pick Gregory Junior is another option. We haven’t seen much from him, though.
Rookie sixth-round pick Christian Braswell did some nice work at Rutgers. He might earn a look if he impresses in practice.
The Jaguars look set at safety. 2021 third-round pick free safety Andre Cisco played quite well last season. So did strong safety Rayshawn Jenkins. It’s a good pairing, albeit one that has a tendency to line up a little far off the line of scrimmage.
Rookie fifth-round pick Antonio Johnson will provide depth:
Antonio Johnson: Mix of a box safety and a nickel cornerback. Not going to sell himself with these combine results.
Johnson’s best trait might be his versatility. He has the skills to cover the slot, but can be deep or attack the line of scrimmage. I wouldn’t think of him as a nickelback with elite power against the run. He only had one interception in his collegiate career. He might get exposed if forced to regularly match up with NFL slot receivers.
As a box safety, Johnson enjoys delivering big hits. That’s a trait teams would like to keep while cleaning up his tackling technique.
Johnson is still learning how to play safety. I should probably cut him a bit of slack, as there’s some upside here. I’d definitely take Battle over Johnson. Once Battle is gone, I’d consider Johnson early in the third round.
It wouldn’t shock me if Johnson ended up getting some looks in the nickel.
The Jaguars have a lot of good pieces of a defense, but somehow the whole has failed to produce. Part of the problem is they haven’t gotten enough sacks. Their pass rush looks weak. That puts too much pressure on the secondary. I expect that to continue this season.
Logan Cooke is a good punter. Jamal Agnew is a solid return man. He’ll be backed up by rookie sixth-round pick Parker Washington. Kicker Brandon McManus is in a training camp battle against James McCourt. McCourt showed he could hit from distance at Illinois. McManus has shown the same in the NFL. Either should do a reasonable job.
The Jaguars tanked themselves into a franchise quarterback. That should be enough to win a weak AFC South. The offense could be more explosive with the addition of Ridley. The defense still looks soft, though. A weak pass rush is an opposing quarterback’s best friend. Five wins against the AFC South is an easy path toward ten wins, but then what? 10-7.
Tennessee Titans:
2022 Record: 7-10
Projections:
Scouting Wins: 6.71
DVOA Wins: 7.4
FPI Wins: 7.5
Market Wins: 7.49
Implied Pythag: 39.95%
In a league with relegation, I’d understand the Titans’ plan. Shoot for seven wins, avoid getting sent down. But this is the NFL. Mediocrity is punished. And yet, the Titans are neither contenders nor rebuilding. They’re clearly trying to win, but… will they?
For example, they signed Deandre Hopkins to be their #1WR:
2020: 115 receptions, 1,407 yards, +9.1 +/-, 3.4% DVOA, 207 DYAR
2021: 42 receptions, 572 yards, +7.6 +/-, 23.9% DVOA, 191 DYAR (in 10 games)
2022: 64 receptions, 717 yards, +3.8 +/-, -11.2% DVOA, 11 DYAR (in 9 games)
He missed the first six games of 2022 with a PED suspension. Hopkins turned 31 in June. With the NFL watching him, I’m not sure he’ll still have the juice to stretch the field. I’m skeptical he’s worth the money the Titans are paying him.
Hopkins will line up across from 2022 first-round pick Treylon Burks:
2022: 33 receptions, 444 yards, -2.8 +/-, -6.6% DVOA, 25 DYAR (in 11 games)
Toe and head injuries limited Burks to 11 games. When he played he was… meh. I strongly disliked Burks heading into the draft and I felt bad for the Titans when they took him. I don’t think he has the athleticism you want in the NFL.
2022 fifth-round pick Kyle Phillips is getting a look at the slot job, but he has been slowed by knee injuries. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine might be again thrust into the spotlight:
2022: 25 receptions, 397 yards, -3.1 +/-, -7.3 DVOA, 21 DYAR
2022 fourth-round pick tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo has earned the starting job:
2022: 32 receptions, 450 yards, -0.4 +/-, 20.2% DVOA, 82 DYAR
It was an impressive rookie campaign.
Budget free-agent pickup Trevon Wesco is a blocking tight end. Rookie fifth-round pick Josh Whyle will provide depth as he develops.
Even monsters like Derrick Henry wear down:
2020: 409 squid, 2,141 yards, 10.3% DVOA, 311 DYAR
2021: 239 squid, 1,091 yards, 4.3% DVOA, 144 DYAR (in eight games)
2022: 390 squid, 1,936 yards, -1.8% DVOA, 139 DYAR
There are rumors the Titans were trying to trade Henry, but if so, there were no takers. For now, Henry will get the bulk of the carries.
Rookie third-round pick Tyjae Spears will provide depth:
Tyjae Spears: Productive at Tulane last season (258 squid, 1,837 yards-from-scrimmage, 21 TD, 43 EPA). Lacks prototype size or athleticism. It’s not clear what he will do to help an offense in the passing game. His receiving skills are still fairly basic. He doesn’t have much power in pass protection.
Spears is a decisive runner who makes his cut and goes. His film was fun to watch in that respect.
He tore his ACL in 2020. It looked like he was fully recovered, but the medical staffs would know more.
It’s a pretty big step up in competition from Tulane to the NFL. While Spears looked fast vs. AAC defenses, that won’t be the case in the NFL. I’m not seeing anything from him that would justify a day-two pick.
I suppose I should note that the Titans did not have an NFL-level left tackle last year. Taylor Lewan suffered a season-ending knee injury in week two. He was clearly playing through pain before he went down. Backup Dennis Daley was completely overmatched.
Daley has been replaced by free-agent pickup Andre Dillard. Dillard couldn’t crack the starting lineup in Philadelphia. When we saw him play in relief, he looked terrible. I’m a bit concerned here.
Rookie first-round pick Peter Skoronski will start at left guard:
Peter Skoronski: 32.25. Remember that number because it’s the one black mark on Skoronski’s profile. I’ll explain shortly. First, let me share why I love him as a prospect.
Skoronski won numerous accolades at Northwestern, including being a unanimous All-American and Big Ten OL of the year in 2022. I’ll note that Paris Johnson Jr. also played in the Big 10.
Skoronski has an excellent mix of power and technique. If he doesn’t win on initial contact, he’s very good at resetting his anchor and moving the defender away from the pocket. He’s an effective run blocker, particularly in the second level, where he moves much better than you’d expect for a man his size. Feasts on easily predictable edge rushers.
The fact is, no offensive lineman in college football was more effective at protecting the quarterback in 2022. Skoronski’s college numbers were near impeccable. The only real flaw might be penalties (two holding calls, three false starts).
The issue is, that was college. He could get away with having 32.25 inch arms. That’s well below what many teams have as their desired length at left tackle. As such, he may end up being forced to move inside. Lack of college film at the position aside, Skoronski would easily be considered the top guard in this year’s class.
A few years ago Teven Jenkins tried to make it at tackle in Chicago with 33.5 inch arms. It didn’t work out. This list of offensive linemen and their arm lengths is a bit dated. Having said that, it shows how rare it is to succeed at tackle with sub-34 inch arms. Sub 32.5 would be unprecedented.
There’s much more demand for elite offensive tackles than there is for elite guards. I expect wherever Skoronski lands, he’ll get a shot to prove himself outside. If he can’t hack it, his floor is (presumably) an elite interior lineman. I think Skoronski is worth a pick in the back half of the top ten. We’ll see what the NFL thinks.
(Editor’s note: If Skoronski does move inside, cut him a little slack, as there will be a learning curve as he adapts to his new position.)
Aaron Brewer will start at center. He played both left guard and center last season. Not very well, though.
2021 second-round pick right guard Dillon Radunz is coming back from a torn ACL. He committed five penalties in 280 snaps last season. League average is roughly one penalty every 213 snaps. Not great, Dillon.
2022 third-round pick Nicholas Petit-Frere is suspended for six games for gambling. He was truly awful last season. I can only hope he has learned from his many mistakes.
Free-agent pickup Daniel Brunskill will start at right tackle while Petit-Frere is suspended. He did not play tackle last season. I will say he did a fine job at guard, so there is hope.
Rookie sixth-round pick Jaelyn Duncan will provide depth:
Jaelyn Duncan: Four years of experience at Maryland. Solid athlete. Sub-34 inch arms will be a concern for some teams. Another will be his film. Duncan mostly held his own in college, but the tape suggests he does not have enough power to play outside in the NFL. Frankly, physically his best fit might be at center.
I rarely talk about “motor.” Duncan’s play has concerned scouts and coaches alike. He does not appear to provide consistent effort every play. And then there’s the penalties. Duncan averaged 0.80 flags per game over his final two seasons. That is very, very, very bad.
When given the opportunity to show his talent against elite competition, Duncan gave up an average of two sacks per game (vs. Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State).
I don’t like Duncan as a prospect. To be fair, he’s still learning the game, having picked it up in high school. He’ll turn 23 in July. Perhaps he has real upside in the interior of the line. I wouldn’t touch him until day three.
I have to say, this offensive line will be interesting to watch. As for who it will be protecting…
Quarterback #1: Ryan Tannehill:
2022: 2,536 yards, 13 TD, 6 INT, 6.4 NY/P, 4.3% DVOA, 378 DYAR (in 12 games)
Tannehill turned 35 in July. He probably gives the Titans their best chance to win.
Quarterback #2: 2022 third-round pick Malik Willis:
2022: 276 yards, 0 TD, 3 INT, 3.2 NY/P, -67.6% DVOA, -249 DYAR (in eight games)
Rough way to start a career. Willis has looked much better this preseason, but interceptions have continued to haunt him.
Quarterback #3: Rookie second-round pick Will Levis:
Will Levis: Looks the part. Tremendous arm strength. Quick release. Showed off impressive mobility in 2021:
2021: 233 completions, 2,827 yards, 24 TD, 13 INT, 10.3 passing EPA, 84 carries, 513 yards, 37.6 rushing EPA (in 13 games)
Levis played through a foot injury, with an underwhelming supporting cast in 2022:
2022: 185 completions, 2,406 yards, 19 TD, 10 INT, -1.3 passing EPA, 37 carries, 123 yards, -0.3 rushing EPA (in 11 games)
I don’t want to compare Levis’ college efficiency to that of Stroud or Young, as he didn’t have the same kind of advantage over the opposition on a weekly basis. I’m more concerned about his accuracy and his mechanics.
For a guy with a rocket arm, Levis underthrew more than his fair share of deep balls. The culprit was his poor footwork. This is fixable, but it will take time and reps.
For short-to-intermediate passes, Levis needs to hit his targets. Too many of his passes forced his receivers to adjust and robbed them of YAC.
Without knowing what his coaches were asking him to do, it’s tough to accurately gauge Levis’s decision-making. I can tell you there were a lot of plays where he locked onto his #1 target and didn’t go through his progressions. And then there were plays where he did go through his progressions, but too slowly to beat the defense.
I don’t want to come off too harsh on Levis. He had some beautiful deep balls that few NFL quarterbacks could match. When his mechanics were sound, his sideline throws were very hard to defend. There’s serious upside here. But Levis has to be regarded as a project. His mechanics need fixing. His play recognition skills need work. He’s not as polished a prospect as either Young or Stroud.
We’ve seen toolsy quarterback prospects blossom with proper coaching in the NFL (Josh Allen, Justin Herbert). Levis might join them. Then again, he might not. Accuracy is a tricky thing to fix. So is processing speed. There’s no way I’m taking Levis over Stroud. If I have the stomach to gamble, I want Richardson. If I want a more polished prospect, Young. Levis, who will turn 24 in June, is my QB4.
Levis has missed time this preseason with a thigh injury. The Titans probably want to see if he’s their quarterback of the future, but he also might be best served spending a year developing behind the scenes before he’s thrown out to the wolves.
Tannehill is the starter. I suspect it’s a matter of time before the Titans look to the future. Willis might currently be better prepared to start than Levis. I’d like to see what Willis could do if given a second chance.
Star defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons had 5.5 sacks in the Titans’ first seven games. Injuries slowed him after that and he finished with 7.5 sacks (41 hits+hurries). Simmons will line up across from defensive end Denico Autry (eight sacks, 40 hit+hurries). Nose tackle Teair Tart will return in between them.
Budget free-agent pickup Jaleel Johnson and Naquan Jones will provide depth.
Edge-rusher Harold Landry missed last season with torn ACL. He had 12 sacks and 47 hits+hurries in 2021. Landry will line up across from free-agent pickup Arden Key (4.5 sacks, 27 hits+hurries).
2021 fourth-round pick Rashad Weaver (5.5 sacks, 38 hits+hurries) and Sam Okuayinonu will provide depth. Okuayinonu is a converted defensive lineman and will probably be better at holding the edge than rushing the passer.
The Titans don’t have a deep linebacker corps. 2022 undrafted free-agent Jack Gibbens will pair with budget free-agent pickup Azeez Al-Shaair. I expect we’ll see 2021 third-round pick Monty Rice play quite a bit as well. Rice missed time with an Achilles injury. I see him as having more upside than Gibbens does.
I should note that the Titans’ front-seven is pretty solid against the run. They have a bit more beef, particularly at edge, than most teams.
2020 second-round pick #1CB Kristian Fulton has been good when healthy/available. He missed ten games as a rookie, four games in 2021, and six games last season. It’s hard to count on him to play a full season.
Fulton will start across from either free-agent pickup Sean Murphy-Bunting. I am not sure I love Bunting in a starting role, but the Titans have limited options.
2022 second-round pick Roger McCreary will play as the nickelback in the slot. McCreary ran out of gas late in the season. I expect he’ll be in better condition this year. I am a little skeptical that his skills will transition well inside. Without the sideline as an additional defender, you need good route awareness. That hasn’t been one of his strengths.
2021 third-round pick Elijah Molden would be a great option if he were healthy. A very serious groin injury sidelined him for almost all of 2022. His return would give the Titans some real depth at either cornerback or free safety.
Amani Hooker and Kevin Byard will start at safety. Byard played very well last season, snagging four interceptions. Injuries, including concussion issues, limited Hooker to nine games last season. The Titans will need both Byard and Hooker to stay healthy, as they have no discernible depth here.
2022 undrafted free-agent punter Ryan Stonehouse averaged 53.1 yards-per-punt. That Broke Sammy Baugh’s record from 1940 (51.4). Stonehouse also has the collegiate record (47.8). The dude has a booming leg. The Titans’ coverage team might appreciate a bit more hang time, though.
The Titans are currently scouring free agency to find a kicker. I wish them best of luck.
I expect Kyle Phillips to return punts and Julius Chestnut to return kicks. Rookie third-round pick Tyjae Spears might also get a look. My expectations here are pretty low.
The Titans feel like a team too proud to admit they are rebuilding. Their depth is shaky AF. I don’t love their receiver corps or their offensive line. I expect attrition to murder their defense. The only thing stopping me from predicting collapse is my respect for head coach Mike Vrabel. I expect he’ll get the guys he has healthy ready to play. Well, that, and the fact they play in the AFC South. The schedule is quite reasonable. Last year 7-10 was a disappointment. This year 8-9 is an accomplishment. 8-9.