Football Outsiders is still up over $1M, and are looking to profit with the Seahawks:

Seahawks -5.5 201488 186563 0

ESPN’s SPI are down $758,023 and are looking to cut into that with a Seahawks win:

Seahawks 78775 30892 0

 

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ESPN’s SPI has dug itself into a $404,818 hole, but can dig themselves out with a Packers win tonight:

Packers 353205 416782 0

Football Outsiders is currently up $1,108,001 and will try to keep the train rolling with the Packers as well:

Packers 2.5 90802 92618 0

 

 

Last night I tweeted out skepticism of this tweet:

Specifically, I found it highly implausible that the average top 25 team would go undefeated against Wisconsin’s schedule 33% of the time.

Let’s take a look at Five undefeated college football teams. Let’s start with the Wisconsin Badgers:

Opponent Location Exp Win % Undefeated % Team
BYU Away 0.923 0.9230 Wisconsin
Florida Atlantic Home 0.9167 0.8461 Wisconsin
Illinois Away 0.9166 0.7755 Wisconsin
Indiana Away 0.7984 0.6192 Wisconsin
Maryland Home 0.9227 0.5713 Wisconsin
Nebraska Away 0.808 0.4616 Wisconsin
Northwestern Home 0.841 0.3882 Wisconsin
Purdue Home 0.8652 0.3359 Wisconsin
Utah St Home 0.9421 0.3165 Wisconsin

Let me note that the expected win % is based off of a neutral field Pythag of .9571, which would be the eighth best in college football, just behind Clemson (.9610). I am using the Sagarin predictor ratings to generate the team strength of the opposition. If I used a power rating of .9318 (the average of the top 25), the undefeated % would be 16.57%. Let’s check Georgia next:

Opponent Location Exp Win % Undefeated % Team
Appalachian St Home 0.9501 0.9501 Georgia
Florida Neutral 0.8763 0.8326 Georgia
Mississippi St Home 0.7564 0.6298 Georgia
Missouri Home 0.9115 0.5740 Georgia
Notre Dame Away 0.3396 0.1949 Georgia
Samford Home 0.9648 0.1881 Georgia
South Carolina Home 0.8668 0.1630 Georgia
Tennessee Away 0.8441 0.1376 Georgia
Vanderbilt Away 0.8625 0.1187 Georgia

Winning at Notre Dame is indeed quite difficult. A very strong team would be undefeated vs. Georgia’s schedule only 11.87% of the time. if I used a weaker power rating of the average top 25 team, that drops the undefeated % to 4.66%. Next up, Miami:

Opponent Location Exp Win % Undefeated % Team
Bethune Cookman Home 0.992 0.9920 Miami FL
Duke Away 0.7899 0.7836 Miami FL
Florida St Away 0.7278 0.5703 Miami FL
Georgia Tech Home 0.802 0.4574 Miami FL
North Carolina Away 0.8697 0.3978 Miami FL
Syracuse Home 0.875 0.3481 Miami FL
Toledo Home 0.8786 0.3058 Miami FL
Virginia Tech Home 0.6995 0.2139 Miami FL

No single result is as impressive as Georgia’s win at Notre Dame, but overall it’s an excellent accomplishment. Our average top 25 team would only pull it off 9.51% of the time. How about Alabama:

Opponent Location Exp Win % Undefeated % Team
Arkansas Home 0.932 0.9320 Alabama
Colorado St Home 0.923 0.8602 Alabama
Florida St Neutral 0.7982 0.6866 Alabama
Fresno St Home 0.906 0.6221 Alabama
LSU Home 0.8228 0.5119 Alabama
Mississippi Home 0.9202 0.4710 Alabama
Tennessee Home 0.9222 0.4344 Alabama
Texas A&M Away 0.7683 0.3337 Alabama
Vanderbilt Away 0.8625 0.2878 Alabama

It’s not quite as easy as Alabama’s been making it look. An average top 25 team would be undefeated 14.41% of the time. Finally, let’s look at UCF:

Opponent Location Exp Win % Undefeated % Team
Austin Peay Home 0.9843 0.9843 UCF
Cincinnati Away 0.9175 0.9031 UCF
East Carolina Home 0.9754 0.8809 UCF
FIU Home 0.9704 0.8548 UCF
Maryland Away 0.8449 0.7222 UCF
Memphis Home 0.8768 0.6332 UCF
Navy Away 0.8237 0.5216 UCF
SMU Away 0.825 0.4303 UCF

Yep, their results are impressive, but not equal to the teams above them. An average top 25 team would be undefeated vs. their schedule 26.77% of the time.

Going undefeated is hard. However, what can we say about the teams who aren’t undefeated? I decided to run the WAB rankings using the average top 25 team as the baseline. Here are the top 40 WAB’s. Please note, percentile presumes you are at the median of teams with the same record as you, so in the case of Georgia where 4.66% of teams would be undefeated, their % is 2.33%. Overall,

Rank School WAB Percentile
1 Georgia 2.20 2.33059347%
2 Clemson 2.02 7.09106277%
3 Oklahoma 1.97 6.07413194%
4 Miami FL 1.96 4.75367519%
5 Alabama 1.71 7.20619451%
6 Notre Dame 1.65 11.01489908%
7 Wisconsin 1.60 8.28340317%
8 TCU 1.41 13.28181807%
9 UCF 1.17 13.38675372%
10 USC 1.10 22.42605974%
11 Michigan St 1.07 22.13699511%
12 Penn St 0.89 25.31037392%
13 Ohio St 0.71 30.77320102%
14 Oklahoma St 0.68 32.04118123%
15 Washington 0.63 32.43035166%
16 Memphis 0.54 33.69655228%
17 Auburn 0.49 36.22534672%
18 Mississippi St 0.42 37.04918219%
19 James Madison 0.37 33.98908766%
20 Michigan 0.32 41.53019059%
21 Washington St 0.24 44.67507701%
22 Toledo 0.24 43.55184536%
23 Virginia Tech 0.16 46.31017410%
24 NC A&T 0.12 44.12312623%
25 Iowa -0.01 50.97407177%
26 Northwestern -0.18 56.22522058%
27 NC State -0.19 56.88657992%
28 South Florida -0.22 62.88607042%
29 Elon -0.24 63.30383131%
30 N Dakota St -0.26 64.34567756%
31 LSU -0.26 59.54502270%
32 Iowa St -0.28 59.18825468%
33 Jacksonville St -0.32 66.34706541%
34 San Diego St -0.35 63.63817173%
35 Central Arkansas -0.44 72.29096967%
36 Boise St -0.50 68.52052214%
37 Army -0.58 73.71710418%
38 West Virginia -0.61 69.27015512%
39 Wofford -0.62 81.14536589%
40 Stanford -0.63 69.36372472%

 

 

 

In 1995 the NFL welcomed the Carolina Panthers and Jacksonville Jaguars. In 1996, both made it to their respective conference championship game.  The NFL realized they may have been far too generous to them, and swung back too far in the other direction, completely hosing the Browns when they rejoined the league. The Houston Texans showed up in 2002 and while they were given a better deal than the Browns (in terms of roster construction), it wasn’t anything close to what the Jags and Panthers got.

I bring all of this ancient history up only because Football Outsiders is betting heavily on the Jaguars and Panthers. Moderately on the Texans as well:

Bills -3.0 184446 174006 -184446
Eagles -8.0 3495 3329 0
Rams -3.5 61076 62908 0
Saints -7.0 152986 151471 0
Jaguars -4.5 308535 293843 0
Panthers -1.0 286395 272757 0
Texans -13.0 112200 112200 0
Ravens 0.0 0 0 0

Football Outsiders is currently up $397,659.

ESPN’s SPI is up $67,267:

Bills 0 0 0
Broncos 35975 101090 0
Giants 369840 558459 0
Buccaneers 57736 152424 0
Jaguars 285880 124296 0
Panthers 182059 196624 0
Texans 256750 39500 0
Ravens 20410 31228 0

They’re betting heavily on the Giants. That worked out for them in Denver. We’ll see if it works out against the Rams.

 

 

 

 

 

Here are the projected market Pythags from the NCAAB futures for every team at .87 or above (Minnesota can thank rounding).

Some thoughts:

  1. It’s fairly tight at the top. Duke is #1, but not by a lot.
  2. Missouri? Futures market has them in the top 10, which no predictive system thinks is remotely reasonable. FYI, Lunardi had them as an 11-seed in August.
  3. The ACC is loaded.
  4. Except for Syracuse. 😦
  5. Wichita State is strong, but a clear cut below the top tier.
  6. KenPom’s #1 team Villanova isn’t beloved in the futures. We’ll see how long they stay atop the KP rankings once the season starts.

 

1 Duke 0.9496
2 Michigan St. 0.9468
3 Kentucky 0.9440
4 Arizona 0.9374
5 Kansas 0.9293
6 North Carolina 0.9226
7 Wichita St. 0.9211
8 USC 0.9199
9 Missouri 0.9168
10 Virginia 0.9141
11 Louisville 0.9116
12 Villanova 0.9104
13 Alabama 0.9065
14 Florida 0.9060
15 UCLA 0.9049
16 TCU 0.9044
17 Michigan 0.9035
18 Oregon 0.9024
19 Baylor 0.8980
20 Saint Mary’s 0.8971
21 West Virginia 0.8950
22 Providence 0.8926
23 Texas 0.8923
24 Oklahoma 0.8882
25 Gonzaga 0.8860
26 Purdue 0.8828
27 Seton Hall 0.8825
28 Wisconsin 0.8824
29 Miami FL 0.8818
30 Notre Dame 0.8809
31 SMU 0.8769
32 Xavier 0.8743
33 Cincinnati 0.8733
34 Minnesota 0.8697