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Monthly Archives: March 2016

It was a rough finish to the day for our Giant Killers as Seton Hall fell to Gonzaga. Again, for reference to the Giant Killers methodology:

Here are the day 1 results and day 2 projections.

Team Risked To Win Result
Duke 5520 1022 1022
Iona 155 480 -155
Baylor 3132 1305 -3132
Virginia 5140 64 64
Austin Peay 24 3099 -24
Purdue 785 204 -785
Miami 1900 152 152
Indiana 4890 776 776
UNC 5960 60 60
Utah 1653 389 389
Arizona 1308 1246 -1308
Kentucky 1310 131 131
Seton Hall 4090 5030 -4090
UNC Asheville 990 24741 0
Hawaii 826 1866 0
Middle Tennessee 28 800 0
Maryland 6645 1477 0
Stephen F. Austin 2555 7538 0
Texas A&M 640 58 0
Holy Cross 115 6817 0
Xavier 3070 307 0
Michigan 2355 3108 0
Texas 2647 1431 0
Oklahoma 0 0 0
-6899

 

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The Giant Killer write-ups can be found via these links:

They’re off to a solid start with Duke’s win over UNC Wilmington, but there’s a long way to go.

Team Risked To Win Result
Duke 5520 1022 1022
Iona 155 480 0
Baylor 3132 1305 0
Virginia 5140 64 0
Austin Peay 24 3099 0
Purdue 785 204 0
Miami 1900 152 0
Indiana 4890 776 0
UNC 5960 60 0
Utah 1653 389 0
Arizona 1308 1246 0
Kentucky 1310 131 0
Seton Hall 4090 5030 0

As promised, I’ll be tracking the work of Peter Keating and Jordan Brenner and their Giant Killers:

The Peter and Jordan will be given a standardized $10,000 bankroll (they have a credit line if they go negative). We open up with Duke vs. UNC Wilmington:

Duke to win, risking $5,520 to win $1,022.

What can I say, they like Duke!

Iowa State vs. Iona:

Iona to win, risking $155 to win $481.

Iowa State should try to not be too offended here.

Baylor vs. Yale

Baylor to win, risking $3,132 to win $1,305.

Take that Yale!

Hampton vs. Virginia

Virginia to win, risking $5,140 to win $64.

This just seems cruel.

 

I’ll be back in a few hours with the late afternoon games.

 

 

 

Nate started with $10,000 and has more than doubled-up, standing at $24,333. Given his past results in futbol, the book is allowing him to bet on credit past his current bankroll, although the Kelly-sizing is still based on the $24,333.

There is some drama on the GOP side as Nate’s betting on the upset in Illinois, but the real story is how strong his feelings are for Hillary Clinton…’s odds. He’s betting the proverbial farm on four of the five states tomorrow. The only exception is Missouri, we’re he’s betting a solid amount on an upset. Tomorrow’s going to be a yuge day for Nate and the candidates.

Risked To Win Result Side State
10074 738 0 Trump Florida
2992 7629 0 Field (Not Trump) Illinois
779 100 0 Trump North Carolina
5840 2086 0 Kasich Ohio
17763 683 0 Clinton Florida
17763 10449 0 Clinton Illinois
5562 7787 0 Clinton Missouri
21645 2154 0 Clinton North Carolina
20318 8834 0 Clinton Ohio

I could have gone with Syracuse > Monmouth?, but I am ecstatic Syracuse made it in. I’m not going to pretend they deserved it though.

Let’s take a brief look at Tulsa vs. Saint Mary’s. Please note, location refers to the opponent. California-Home means California was at home, and Saint Mary’s was on the road. The Expected Win % is for an average bubble team (ABT). WAB is Wins-Above-Bubble, which measures the net amount of wins for the team we are measuring relative to an ABT. Here is how Saint Mary’s performed this season:

Date Opponent Saint Mary’s Opponent-Location Expected Win % WAB
12/12/15 63 59 California-Home 0.25 -0.25
02/20/16 58 63 Gonzaga-Home 0.28 0.72
02/04/16 70 59 BYU-Home 0.41 -0.41
03/08/16 85 75 Gonzaga-Neutral 0.42 -0.42
01/21/16 67 70 Gonzaga-Away 0.58 0.42
01/09/16 67 64 Pepperdine-Home 0.65 -0.65
12/31/15 74 85 BYU-Away 0.72 0.28
02/27/16 72 84 San Francisco-Home 0.77 0.23
03/07/16 66 81 Pepperdine-Neutral 0.78 0.22
12/06/15 60 70 UC Irvine-Away 0.79 0.21
11/29/15 59 94 Cal St. Bakersfield-Away 0.79 0.21
02/18/16 72 74 Portland-Home 0.80 0.20
11/22/15 61 78 Stanford-Away 0.81 0.19
01/07/16 48 73 Loyola Marymount-Home 0.81 0.19
01/30/16 65 68 Pacific-Home 0.82 0.18
12/23/15 59 81 Santa Clara-Home 0.84 0.16
03/01/16 64 73 Grand Canyon-Away 0.85 0.15
02/11/16 69 63 Pepperdine-Away 0.87 -0.87
02/06/16 43 60 San Diego-Home 0.87 0.13
03/05/16 48 60 Loyola Marymount-Neutral 0.89 0.11
12/21/15 52 74 San Francisco-Away 0.93 0.07
12/14/15 63 93 Cal Poly-Away 0.93 0.07
01/23/16 74 89 Portland-Away 0.94 0.06
02/13/16 62 68 Loyola Marymount-Away 0.94 0.06
11/16/15 63 89 Manhattan-Away 0.94 0.06
01/14/16 62 78 Pacific-Away 0.94 0.06
02/25/16 50 75 Santa Clara-Away 0.95 0.05
12/04/15 67 81 UC Davis-Away 0.95 0.05
01/02/16 46 79 San Diego-Away 0.96 0.04
12/28/15 50 65 Utah Valley-Away 0.96 0.04
12/16/15 36 92 Southern Utah-Away 0.98 0.02
11/13/15 56 80 San Francisco St.-Away 1.00 0.00
        Final Result 1.56

They went 1-1 in their two toughest games. In fact, if you just look at their six toughest games, they went 2-4, with a WAB of -0.59. However, in their other 26 games they went 25-1, with the unfortunate slip at home against Pepperdine being the only blemish. We’d expect an ABT to pick up 3.15 losses in those 26 games, so Saint Mary’s ends up with a WAB of 1.56. It isn’t easy to win games like a metronome.

As for Tulsa:

Date Opponent Tulsa Opponent-Location Expected Win % WAB
02/10/16 77 82 SMU-Home 0.23 0.77
02/13/16 75 73 Connecticut-Home 0.26 -0.26
01/02/16 76 57 Cincinnati-Home 0.31 -0.31
01/27/16 81 66 Houston-Home 0.41 -0.41
02/28/16 92 82 Memphis-Home 0.47 -0.47
11/17/15 67 77 Wichita St.-Away 0.49 0.51
12/19/15 76 71 Oregon St.-Semi-Home 0.49 -0.49
02/04/16 83 79 Temple-Home 0.50 -0.50
12/29/15 81 69 SMU-Away 0.51 -0.51
12/02/15 56 66 Oklahoma St.-Home 0.53 0.47
11/23/15 83 75 South Carolina-Neutral 0.55 -0.55
01/14/16 51 60 Connecticut-Away 0.57 0.43
02/18/16 68 70 Cincinnati-Away 0.62 0.38
03/11/16 89 67 Memphis-Neutral 0.62 -0.62
11/28/15 64 60 Arkansas Little Rock-Away 0.68 -0.68
02/07/16 63 77 Houston-Away 0.71 0.29
12/08/15 81 90 Iona-Away 0.76 0.24
11/20/15 88 90 Ohio-Neutral 0.77 0.23
02/21/16 67 75 UCF-Home 0.77 0.23
02/23/16 55 74 Temple-Away 0.78 0.22
01/19/16 69 84 East Carolina-Home 0.79 0.21
01/10/16 67 81 Tulane-Home 0.80 0.20
12/13/15 61 70 Missouri St.-Home 0.83 0.17
11/22/15 59 67 Indiana St.-Neutral 0.85 0.15
12/05/15 70 68 Oral Roberts-Away 0.90 -0.90
01/24/16 60 75 UCF-Away 0.92 0.08
01/05/16 43 55 East Carolina-Away 0.93 0.07
01/30/16 48 62 Tulane-Away 0.93 0.07
03/05/16 74 84 South Florida-Away 0.94 0.06
11/14/15 81 98 Central Arkansas-Away 0.98 0.02
12/22/15 55 90 Northern Arizona-Away 0.99 0.01
Final Result -0.90

Like Saint Mary’s, Tulsa went 1-1 in their two toughest games. In fact, they also went 2-4 in their six toughest games, with a WAB of -0.16. That puts them solidly ahead of Saint Mary’s, but this is where things diverge. Tulsa had a set of nine games where an ABT would more 49% of the time (the Wichita State game was 48.62%), and less than 70% of the time. In those nine games they went 3-6, for a WAB of -2.08. That set includes losing to Temple at home, and Memphis on a neutral court.

In the remaining 16 games Tulsa went 15-1, with the lone blemish being a loss at home agaisnt Oral Roberts. As with Saint Mary’s, that was a solid performance, netting 1.33 WAB, but it doesn’t make up for that awful run in the midsection of the schedule.

Of course, the committee saw things differently. I’ll discuss why when I have more time.

Here are the final WAB standings:

Rank School WAB avg Resume Pyth Pyth 50-50 Split
1 Kansas 11.08 0.9598 0.9521 0.956
2 Villanova 8.23 0.9366 0.9443 0.9404
3 Virginia 7.98 0.9251 0.9476 0.9363
4 North Carolina 7.94 0.9284 0.9479 0.9382
5 Michigan St. 7.57 0.9315 0.9497 0.9406
6 Oklahoma 7.43 0.9214 0.9299 0.9256
7 Xavier 6.86 0.9271 0.9141 0.9206
8 West Virginia 6.74 0.9087 0.9349 0.9218
9 Oregon 6.69 0.9174 0.9165 0.917
10 Miami FL 6.25 0.9098 0.9117 0.9108
11 Utah 5.69 0.8975 0.877 0.8873
12 Kentucky 4.67 0.8853 0.9256 0.9055
13 Texas A&M 4.53 0.8835 0.9042 0.8939
14 Purdue 4.46 0.8827 0.9218 0.9022
15 Seton Hall 4.13 0.879 0.881 0.88
16 Maryland 4.08 0.8783 0.8956 0.887
17 Louisville 3.78 0.8758 0.9216 0.8987
18 SMU 3.75 0.8916 0.9067 0.8992
19 Duke 3.71 0.8673 0.9054 0.8863
20 Indiana 3.51 0.8748 0.9085 0.8917
21 Arizona 3.44 0.8689 0.9108 0.8899
22 Iowa St. 3.29 0.8604 0.9036 0.882
23 Baylor 3.16 0.8574 0.8858 0.8716
24 Texas 2.91 0.8533 0.8647 0.859
25 Saint Joseph’s 2.69 0.8602 0.8494 0.8548
26 Providence 2.41 0.8472 0.8277 0.8375
27 Dayton 2.19 0.8519 0.8176 0.8348
28 California 2.17 0.8432 0.8885 0.8658
29 Arkansas Little Rock 1.97 0.8648 0.7881 0.8265
30 Iowa 1.97 0.8408 0.8987 0.8698
31 Notre Dame 1.96 0.8387 0.8503 0.8445
32 Gonzaga 1.87 0.8452 0.884 0.8646
33 Saint Mary’s 1.58 0.8483 0.8592 0.8538
34 South Carolina 1.45 0.834 0.8245 0.8292
35 Butler 1.42 0.8305 0.8554 0.843
36 Connecticut 1.42 0.8293 0.8818 0.8555
37 Michigan 1.27 0.8243 0.8169 0.8206
38 Texas Tech 1.09 0.8223 0.8272 0.8248
39 Pittsburgh 0.94 0.8197 0.8409 0.8303
40 Colorado 0.71 0.8148 0.8157 0.8152
41 Valparaiso 0.68 0.8205 0.8351 0.8278
42 Chattanooga 0.66 0.8226 0.6825 0.7525
43 Cincinnati 0.60 0.8134 0.8654 0.8394
44 Wisconsin 0.46 0.8095 0.8548 0.8322
45 Hawaii 0.34 0.8123 0.7825 0.7974
46 USC 0.23 0.8047 0.8283 0.8165
47 Monmouth 0.16 0.8046 0.7515 0.7781
48 Oregon St. 0.09 0.802 0.792 0.797
49 Temple -0.04 0.7992 0.7362 0.7677
50 Wichita St. -0.09 0.7976 0.8919 0.8448
51 Princeton -0.20 0.7932 0.753 0.7731
52 San Diego St. -0.22 0.7946 0.8145 0.8046
53 Yale -0.25 0.7913 0.8153 0.8033
54 Florida St. -0.41 0.7913 0.815 0.8032
55 UNC Wilmington -0.42 0.7872 0.7389 0.7631
56 Georgia Tech -0.43 0.7913 0.7989 0.7951
57 St. Bonaventure -0.46 0.787 0.7471 0.7671
58 Florida -0.50 0.7899 0.8433 0.8166
59 VCU -0.71 0.7832 0.8357 0.8094
60 Syracuse -0.71 0.7848 0.8385 0.8117
61 Vanderbilt -0.88 0.781 0.8836 0.8323
62 Tulsa -0.90 0.7785 0.7887 0.7836
63 Ohio St. -0.93 0.7801 0.7703 0.7752
64 Stephen F. Austin -0.94 0.7586 0.8108 0.7847
65 Virginia Tech -0.94 0.7805 0.7714 0.7759
66 Houston -0.97 0.7738 0.7842 0.779
67 South Dakota St. -1.03 0.7664 0.7364 0.7514
68 Stony Brook -1.05 0.7603 0.7116 0.736
69 UC Irvine -1.11 0.7704 0.7143 0.7424
70 Georgia -1.14 0.775 0.7837 0.7793
71 Grand Canyon -1.14 0.7561 0.6127 0.6844
72 Hofstra -1.18 0.7681 0.713 0.7405
73 Akron -1.19 0.765 0.7341 0.7495
74 UAB -1.22 0.7527 0.6393 0.696
75 George Washington -1.27 0.768 0.7724 0.7702
76 Alabama -1.27 0.7726 0.7269 0.7497
77 Fresno St. -1.39 0.7623 0.6787 0.7205
78 Texas A&M Corpus Chris -1.54 0.7461 0.5092 0.6277
79 Northwestern -1.65 0.7611 0.7665 0.7638
80 Marquette -1.74 0.7612 0.709 0.7351
81 Kansas St. -1.86 0.7611 0.8131 0.7871
82 BYU -1.99 0.7467 0.8089 0.7778
83 Evansville -2.00 0.7423 0.7523 0.7473
84 Mississippi -2.02 0.7513 0.7481 0.7497
85 Washington -2.13 0.752 0.7959 0.774
86 LSU -2.37 0.7472 0.7423 0.7448
87 IPFW -2.38 0.728 0.6035 0.6658
88 Davidson -2.56 0.7361 0.6777 0.7069
89 Northern Iowa -2.58 0.7376 0.7387 0.7382
90 Stanford -2.61 0.7378 0.7019 0.7199
91 Creighton -2.68 0.7379 0.8248 0.7814
92 Clemson -2.88 0.7311 0.8126 0.7719
93 Oakland -3.30 0.7077 0.7202 0.7139
94 Iona -3.34 0.6982 0.7164 0.7073
95 Long Beach St. -3.41 0.721 0.6832 0.7021
96 Middle Tennessee -3.43 0.6841 0.5995 0.6418
97 Cal St. Bakersfield -3.46 0.6649 0.6635 0.6642
98 William & Mary -3.48 0.6998 0.7191 0.7095
99 Albany -3.78 0.6461 0.5911 0.6186
100 UT Arlington -3.86 0.6776 0.684 0.6808
101 Boise St. -3.92 0.6924 0.7098 0.7011
102 UCLA -3.94 0.7087 0.7621 0.7354
103 Southern Illinois -3.98 0.6712 0.5744 0.6228
104 Weber St. -4.03 0.6325 0.582 0.6072
105 James Madison -4.09 0.6776 0.7108 0.6942
106 Arizona St. -4.30 0.6992 0.7235 0.7113
107 Columbia -4.32 0.6534 0.6247 0.6391
108 New Mexico St. -4.35 0.6554 0.6458 0.6506
109 Winthrop -4.42 0.6308 0.5359 0.5833
110 Green Bay -4.43 0.6791 0.6272 0.6532
111 Louisiana Tech -4.51 0.6251 0.5301 0.5776
112 North Carolina St. -4.53 0.6959 0.7508 0.7234
113 Penn St. -4.60 0.6889 0.5972 0.6431
114 East Tennessee St. -4.69 0.6558 0.5416 0.5987
115 UC Santa Barbara -4.71 0.6691 0.6819 0.6755
116 Georgetown -4.95 0.6856 0.7783 0.732
117 Belmont -4.96 0.6377 0.5914 0.6145
118 Ohio -5.07 0.6349 0.5962 0.6156
119 Arkansas -5.10 0.674 0.7522 0.7131
120 High Point -5.24 0.6036 0.5562 0.5799
121 Memphis -5.30 0.6691 0.7544 0.7118
122 North Florida -5.39 0.6209 0.4736 0.5472
123 Nevada -5.46 0.6433 0.569 0.6062
124 Pepperdine -5.49 0.6392 0.5979 0.6186
125 Nebraska -5.73 0.6674 0.718 0.6927
126 Montana -5.78 0.5982 0.5384 0.5683
127 Illinois St. -5.84 0.6377 0.59 0.6139
128 Buffalo -5.85 0.6431 0.5951 0.6191
129 UNC Asheville -5.87 0.5957 0.6332 0.6144
130 Tennessee Tech -5.88 0.5874 0.4264 0.5069
131 Wright St. -5.88 0.6334 0.558 0.5957
132 Siena -5.90 0.6137 0.6192 0.6165
133 Hampton -5.90 0.5618 0.3166 0.4392
134 Towson -5.98 0.607 0.5465 0.5768
135 Tennessee St. -6.02 0.5503 0.4805 0.5154
136 Louisiana Monroe -6.15 0.6173 0.5786 0.5979
137 Richmond -6.18 0.6392 0.6974 0.6683
138 Rhode Island -6.26 0.6303 0.7333 0.6818
139 Mississippi St. -6.42 0.6306 0.7329 0.6817
140 Northern Illinois -6.43 0.5873 0.5142 0.5507
141 Vermont -6.43 0.6075 0.5237 0.5656
142 Tennessee -6.43 0.6493 0.6823 0.6658
143 Morehead St. -6.44 0.5808 0.5661 0.5735
144 Fordham -6.46 0.5933 0.5393 0.5663
145 UNLV -6.55 0.6229 0.6335 0.6282
146 Milwaukee -6.58 0.5978 0.6297 0.6138
147 Wake Forest -6.61 0.6259 0.6197 0.6228
148 Old Dominion -6.62 0.6013 0.6471 0.6242
149 Northeastern -6.67 0.6183 0.5955 0.6069
150 Wagner -6.73 0.5008 0.4399 0.4704
151 Coastal Carolina -6.77 0.5278 0.4912 0.5095
152 Fairfield -6.78 0.5854 0.4338 0.5096
153 Illinois -6.84 0.6376 0.6238 0.6307
154 Kent St. -6.87 0.581 0.485 0.533
155 TCU -6.94 0.6291 0.5855 0.6073
156 Oklahoma St. -7.03 0.6205 0.7033 0.6619
157 College of Charleston -7.04 0.5845 0.6101 0.5973
158 North Dakota St. -7.10 0.5725 0.5351 0.5538
159 Incarnate Word -7.12 0.5344 0.306 0.4202
160 New Mexico -7.19 0.5943 0.6283 0.6113
161 Nebraska Omaha -7.43 0.5484 0.546 0.5472
162 New Hampshire -7.45 0.5216 0.3342 0.4279
163 Louisiana Lafayette -7.57 0.5596 0.6048 0.5822
164 Eastern Michigan -7.59 0.5818 0.5476 0.5647
165 Utah St. -7.67 0.5693 0.5775 0.5734
166 Texas Southern -7.77 0.5544 0.4223 0.4883
167 Idaho -7.81 0.5046 0.3845 0.4446
168 Southern -7.92 0.5003 0.3381 0.4192
169 Duquesne -8.17 0.5645 0.5322 0.5484
170 Ball St. -8.21 0.5073 0.5154 0.5114
171 Elon -8.24 0.5614 0.5089 0.5351
172 Detroit -8.41 0.5353 0.4811 0.5082
173 Florida Gulf Coast -8.67 0.4819 0.4594 0.4706
174 Marshall -8.75 0.5449 0.5374 0.5411
175 Georgia St. -8.76 0.4919 0.4508 0.4713
176 Colorado St. -8.77 0.5488 0.548 0.5484
177 San Francisco -8.79 0.5107 0.4232 0.467
178 NJIT -8.84 0.4922 0.3873 0.4398
179 Murray St. -8.86 0.4911 0.4865 0.4888
180 Auburn -8.94 0.5498 0.4435 0.4966
181 Mercer -8.95 0.4953 0.4427 0.469
182 Central Michigan -8.98 0.5126 0.5272 0.5199
183 Massachusetts -8.98 0.5497 0.4928 0.5212
184 Tennessee Martin -9.02 0.4909 0.3786 0.4347
185 Bucknell -9.03 0.4436 0.4653 0.4544
186 Harvard -9.09 0.5117 0.4657 0.4887
187 Oral Roberts -9.16 0.5271 0.4699 0.4985
188 South Carolina St. -9.30 0.4744 0.2544 0.3644
189 Indiana St. -9.30 0.5279 0.4765 0.5022
190 Loyola Marymount -9.37 0.5182 0.3804 0.4493
191 Army -9.40 0.4258 0.3402 0.383
192 Radford -9.46 0.4816 0.3669 0.4242
193 Furman -9.53 0.4883 0.4754 0.4818
194 Lehigh -9.56 0.4815 0.445 0.4632
195 Missouri -9.62 0.525 0.5152 0.5201
196 UTEP -9.63 0.4535 0.3729 0.4132
197 Western Kentucky -9.63 0.5094 0.4712 0.4903
198 Toledo -9.65 0.4763 0.5941 0.5352
199 Loyola Chicago -9.71 0.5103 0.4557 0.483
200 Sam Houston St. -9.74 0.4768 0.3723 0.4245
201 DePaul -9.89 0.5119 0.4356 0.4737
202 Western Carolina -9.90 0.5079 0.4131 0.4605
203 Fairleigh Dickinson -9.93 0.4287 0.2762 0.3525
204 Navy -9.95 0.4316 0.4001 0.4158
205 Gardner Webb -9.95 0.4883 0.3506 0.4194
206 Boston University -9.98 0.4247 0.3488 0.3868
207 UCF -9.99 0.4928 0.4651 0.4789
208 Denver -10.12 0.4434 0.4476 0.4455
209 Wofford -10.17 0.4893 0.4138 0.4516
210 East Carolina -10.18 0.5153 0.4379 0.4766
211 Eastern Kentucky -10.41 0.4519 0.4081 0.43
212 Washington St. -10.46 0.4924 0.4477 0.47
213 Saint Peter’s -10.47 0.4415 0.384 0.4128
214 Jackson St. -10.58 0.4307 0.2979 0.3643
215 Eastern Washington -10.62 0.4181 0.4043 0.4112
216 Houston Baptist -10.64 0.4517 0.2428 0.3472
217 North Dakota -10.67 0.4148 0.3965 0.4057
218 IUPUI -10.77 0.4864 0.3613 0.4239
219 Wyoming -10.85 0.4723 0.4719 0.4721
220 Norfolk St. -10.91 0.4365 0.3157 0.3761
221 Savannah St. -10.95 0.3905 0.1571 0.2738
222 Missouri St. -11.03 0.4759 0.3405 0.4082
223 Idaho St. -11.09 0.3815 0.2432 0.3123
224 Texas St. -11.10 0.4134 0.3796 0.3965
225 Austin Peay -11.13 0.4603 0.3709 0.4156
226 Air Force -11.25 0.4542 0.3214 0.3878
227 Western Illinois -11.28 0.3874 0.332 0.3597
228 Seattle -11.40 0.388 0.2279 0.3079
229 Alcorn St. -11.44 0.3502 0.1653 0.2577
230 Penn -11.47 0.3893 0.3044 0.3468
231 South Dakota -11.53 0.4409 0.3604 0.4006
232 Georgia Southern -11.54 0.4131 0.3602 0.3866
233 Tulane -11.67 0.4877 0.4004 0.444
234 Cornell -11.78 0.3884 0.2438 0.3161
235 Bowling Green -11.87 0.4387 0.3604 0.3995
236 Jacksonville -11.91 0.3696 0.2505 0.31
237 George Mason -12.10 0.4466 0.4098 0.4282
238 St. John’s -12.15 0.4396 0.375 0.4073
239 Eastern Illinois -12.25 0.3654 0.2667 0.316
240 Santa Clara -12.25 0.4231 0.3338 0.3784
241 Manhattan -12.25 0.3967 0.3185 0.3576
242 Montana St. -12.27 0.3724 0.2863 0.3294
243 UNC Greensboro -12.28 0.4039 0.3473 0.3756
244 Western Michigan -12.29 0.4209 0.455 0.4379
245 Saint Louis -12.31 0.4387 0.3643 0.4015
246 LIU Brooklyn -12.35 0.2849 0.2232 0.254
247 Colgate -12.37 0.3582 0.2978 0.328
248 Boston College -12.39 0.4216 0.3515 0.3865
249 Cal Poly -12.39 0.4046 0.3974 0.401
250 Utah Valley -12.42 0.3785 0.2289 0.3037
251 Minnesota -12.56 0.4141 0.4499 0.432
252 Dartmouth -12.56 0.3488 0.338 0.3434
253 Portland -12.74 0.4131 0.387 0.4001
254 South Alabama -12.83 0.4042 0.2796 0.3419
255 UMKC -12.83 0.3858 0.2835 0.3346
256 Alabama St. -12.88 0.3358 0.2004 0.2681
257 Charlotte -12.91 0.4 0.4174 0.4087
258 Pacific -12.94 0.3503 0.3533 0.3518
259 Sacramento St. -12.94 0.3316 0.2505 0.291
260 UMass Lowell -13.01 0.3369 0.171 0.254
261 Canisius -13.08 0.3918 0.3482 0.37
262 Kennesaw St. -13.10 0.3865 0.2713 0.3289
263 La Salle -13.11 0.3969 0.29 0.3435
264 St. Francis PA -13.14 0.3113 0.2054 0.2583
265 UC Davis -13.21 0.3563 0.3205 0.3384
266 Miami OH -13.26 0.4001 0.3406 0.3704
267 Samford -13.37 0.3777 0.3481 0.3629
268 UC Riverside -13.41 0.3757 0.3454 0.3605
269 Liberty -13.46 0.3644 0.2257 0.295
270 Sacred Heart -13.50 0.3199 0.1967 0.2583
271 St. Francis NY -13.59 0.2966 0.2396 0.2681
272 Mount St. Mary’s -13.61 0.3652 0.2816 0.3234
273 Bethune Cookman -13.62 0.3302 0.1784 0.2543
274 Rider -13.64 0.383 0.3625 0.3727
275 Cal St. Northridge -13.67 0.3486 0.3215 0.3351
276 Youngstown St. -13.77 0.3795 0.242 0.3107
277 Cal St. Fullerton -13.81 0.3423 0.2737 0.308
278 Rutgers -13.85 0.3746 0.2479 0.3113
279 Northern Kentucky -13.89 0.3476 0.2925 0.32
280 Portland St. -13.96 0.302 0.2852 0.2936
281 Arkansas St. -14.01 0.345 0.295 0.32
282 San Diego -14.04 0.3414 0.2642 0.3028
283 American -14.13 0.3204 0.1835 0.2519
284 Abilene Christian -14.18 0.2888 0.1808 0.2348
285 Brown -14.34 0.2883 0.2556 0.272
286 Holy Cross -14.48 0.3188 0.2491 0.284
287 Campbell -14.57 0.2561 0.2085 0.2323
288 FIU -14.75 0.2955 0.3425 0.319
289 Rice -14.80 0.3178 0.2416 0.2797
290 South Florida -14.80 0.364 0.3536 0.3588
291 North Texas -14.82 0.317 0.2132 0.2651
292 Delaware -14.96 0.3082 0.2478 0.278
293 Alabama A&M -14.96 0.2224 0.1677 0.1951
294 Charleston Southern -15.06 0.2974 0.204 0.2507
295 McNeese St. -15.10 0.268 0.1303 0.1992
296 Appalachian St. -15.10 0.319 0.2821 0.3006
297 Northwestern St. -15.28 0.2449 0.1429 0.1939
298 Presbyterian -15.31 0.2817 0.1559 0.2188
299 North Carolina Central -15.45 0.2544 0.188 0.2212
300 Maryland Eastern Shore -15.55 0.3146 0.1598 0.2372
301 VMI -15.62 0.2726 0.1807 0.2267
302 Southeastern Louisiana -15.62 0.3081 0.1626 0.2354
303 Lamar -15.69 0.2233 0.1602 0.1918
304 Cleveland St. -15.72 0.3154 0.2241 0.2698
305 San Jose St. -15.73 0.2933 0.2881 0.2907
306 Central Arkansas -15.74 0.2359 0.1436 0.1898
307 Loyola MD -15.94 0.2581 0.2185 0.2383
308 Lipscomb -15.97 0.2912 0.247 0.2691
309 Howard -16.08 0.2508 0.1429 0.1968
310 Coppin St. -16.10 0.2777 0.1415 0.2096
311 Quinnipiac -16.22 0.2451 0.208 0.2266
312 New Orleans -16.28 0.2205 0.1614 0.191
313 Northern Colorado -16.34 0.2519 0.185 0.2184
314 Nicholls St. -16.35 0.3176 0.1377 0.2277
315 Troy -16.41 0.2647 0.2257 0.2452
316 SIU Edwardsville -16.63 0.2055 0.1728 0.1892
317 Stetson -16.89 0.2787 0.2525 0.2656
318 Binghamton -16.96 0.227 0.1539 0.1905
319 Drexel -16.97 0.2514 0.3116 0.2815
320 UT Rio Grande Valley -17.04 0.2238 0.0906 0.1572
321 Southern Miss -17.11 0.1912 0.1859 0.1886
322 Robert Morris -17.17 0.2445 0.1873 0.2159
323 Drake -17.20 0.2469 0.2676 0.2572
324 Maine -17.24 0.2152 0.116 0.1656
325 Morgan St. -17.31 0.2258 0.1783 0.2021
326 USC Upstate -17.33 0.237 0.1525 0.1948
327 The Citadel -17.45 0.2317 0.1568 0.1943
328 Hartford -17.51 0.2576 0.1691 0.2134
329 Arkansas Pine Bluff -17.63 0.269 0.0908 0.1799
330 Bryant -17.68 0.2239 0.1007 0.1623
331 North Carolina A&T -17.73 0.219 0.1104 0.1647
332 Jacksonville St. -17.84 0.2175 0.1974 0.2075
333 Longwood -18.20 0.2284 0.2138 0.2211
334 Bradley -18.21 0.2191 0.1436 0.1814
335 Prairie View A&M -18.25 0.21 0.1105 0.1602
336 Florida A&M -18.25 0.1377 0.063 0.1003
337 Marist -18.38 0.1816 0.1917 0.1866
338 Florida Atlantic -18.59 0.236 0.1915 0.2137
339 Southern Utah -18.80 0.1735 0.1127 0.1431
340 Northern Arizona -18.89 0.1698 0.1064 0.1381
341 Niagara -18.99 0.2056 0.1703 0.188
342 Southeast Missouri St. -19.12 0.1443 0.1139 0.1291
343 Illinois Chicago -19.41 0.1548 0.124 0.1394
344 Lafayette -19.47 0.151 0.1434 0.1472
345 Delaware St. -19.71 0.1817 0.0731 0.1274
346 Grambling St. -19.78 0.1555 0.0844 0.1199
347 UMBC -20.38 0.1591 0.1364 0.1478
348 Mississippi Valley St. -21.23 0.1895 0.1004 0.145
349 Chicago St. -21.29 0.1317 0.0841 0.1079
350 UTSA -21.55 0.132 0.105 0.1185
351 Central Connecticut -21.75 0.0749 0.0614 0.0681

I selected based on WAB, and seeded via the 50-50 split (https://sethburn.wordpress.com/2016/03/13/selection-sunday-who-belongs/)

I suppose I could draw up the regions following the selection committee’s guideline, but that’s less important than knowing whom I’d select (and why), as well as where I’d seed them (and why).

USC would face Temple in a play-in game. Oregon State would face Monmouth. I know that’s a bit confusing, but I felt showing the overall rank in a simple form was more important. Teams ranked 65th-68th would comprise the other two play-in games.

(Update: This takes the first three games of today into account, and presumes Michigan State and Connecticut win the late games.)

Overall Rank School Conference Seed
1 Kansas B12 1
2 Villanova BE 1
3 Michigan St. B10 1
4 North Carolina ACC 1
5 Virginia ACC 2
6 Oklahoma B12 2
7 West Virginia B12 2
8 Xavier BE 2
9 Oregon P12 3
10 Miami FL ACC 3
11 Kentucky SEC 3
12 Purdue B10 3
13 Texas A&M SEC 4
14 Indiana B10 4
15 Arizona P12 4
16 Utah P12 4
17 Maryland B10 5
18 Duke ACC 5
19 Iowa St. B12 5
20 Seton Hall BE 5
21 Iowa B10 6
22 Baylor B12 6
23 California P12 6
24 Gonzaga WCC 6
25 Texas B12 7
26 Saint Mary’s WCC 7
27 Connecticut Amer 7
28 Saint Joseph’s A10 7
29 Wichita St. MVC 8
30 Notre Dame ACC 8
31 Butler BE 8
32 Cincinnati Amer 8
33 Providence BE 9
34 Wisconsin B10 9
35 Dayton A10 9
36 South Carolina SEC 9
37 Pittsburgh ACC 10
38 Valparaiso Horz 10
39 Texas Tech B12 10
40 Arkansas Little Rock SB 10
41 Michigan B10 11
42 Colorado P12 11
43 USC P12 11- Play in
44 Yale Ivy 11
45 Oregon St. P12 11- Play in
46 Hawaii BW 12
47 Stephen F. Austin Slnd 12
48 Monmouth MAAC 12-Play in
49 Temple Amer 12-Play in
50 UNC Wilmington CAA 12
51 Chattanooga SC 13
52 South Dakota St. Sum 13
53 Northern Iowa MVC 13
54 Stony Brook AE 13
55 Fresno St. MWC 14
56 Iona MAAC 14
57 Cal St. Bakersfield WAC 14
58 Green Bay Horz 14
59 Middle Tennessee CUSA 15
60 Buffalo MAC 15
61 UNC Asheville BSth 15
62 Weber St. BSky 15
63 Florida Gulf Coast ASun 16
64 Hampton MEAC 16
65 Austin Peay OVC 16
66 Southern SWAC 16
67 Fairleigh Dickinson NEC 16
68 Holy Cross Pat 16

I’m not a bracketologist. I am not trying to predict the committee. I’m simply going to tell you who has earned admission into the dance. Of course, it’s not clear if one can earn admission, as Joe Castiglione explains at 4:35 in this video:

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/eye-on-college-basketball/25514537/ncaa-tournament-selection-committee-facing-its-toughest-decisions-in-years

He refused to even attempt to answer Gary Parrish’s question. Part of that is due to the fact he’s speaking for a committee, but the major issue is that the committee has a dual mandate. Ostensibly the committee is picking the 36 beat teams. In that case Wichita State should be a lock, and Dayton should be on the bubble (Wichita State would be expected to win around 65% of the time on a neutral court). Wichita State is not a lock, and Dayton does not appear to be on the bubble. That leads me to believe in actuality the committee tries to reward the teams with the best bodies-of-work. That’s unfortunate for my favorite team (Syracuse).

The Wins-Above-Bubble (WAB) average is derived from KenPom’s Pyth, Sagarin’s Predictor, Massey’s Power, and ESPN’s BPI. Kansas has won 10.89 more games than we’d expect an average bubble squad to win against their schedule.

Resume Pyth is the Pyth rating implied by the WAB a team has put up against their schedule. For example, knowing only Oregon’s record and the schedule they faced, we’d expect them to have a Pyth of .9166. Their actual happens to be .9165, so that estimate is pretty solid.

Speaking of the actual Pyth, it too is derived from KenPom’s Pyth, Sagarin’s Predictor, Massey’s Power, and ESPN’s BPI. I could live without BPI, but c’est la vie. If you just wanted to put the four best teams on the #1-line, Pyth would suggest Kansas, Michigan State, North Carolina, and Virginia, in that order. Sorry Villanova. Oregon wouldn’t even be close.

The 50-50 split is a blend of Pyth and Resume Pyth. I’m including it because it is probably what I would use to seed the field if I had that responsibility.

The projected cutoff for the field happens to perfectly align with WAB right now (USC last in, Temple first out). Teams in bold have already clinched an automatic bid. Five other bids will be clinched today. Louisville and SMU are ineligible for selection.

Here are the estimated WAB effects of the five games today:

Team Win Loss
VCU 0.48 -0.52
Saint Joseph’s 0.55 -0.45
Texas A&M 0.71 -0.29
Kentucky 0.66 -0.34
Michigan St. 0.70 -0.30
Purdue 0.79 -0.21
Connecticut 0.39 -0.61
Memphis 0.58 -0.42
Arkansas Little Rock 0.23 -0.77
Louisiana Monroe 0.40 -0.60

With a loss Arkansas-Little Rock would finish with approximately 1.34 Wins-Above-Bubble. VCU would finish with -0.73. That’s not my opinion folks, that’s just math.

Without further ado, the Selection Sunday morning WAB Standings:

Rank School WAB avg Resume Pyth Pyth 50-50 Split
1 Kansas 10.89 0.959 0.9521 0.9555
2 Villanova 8.30 0.9371 0.9441 0.9406
3 North Carolina 8.05 0.9293 0.9479 0.9386
4 Virginia 7.89 0.9243 0.9476 0.9359
5 Oklahoma 7.33 0.9206 0.9299 0.9252
6 Michigan St. 6.91 0.9267 0.9492 0.9379
7 West Virginia 6.80 0.9092 0.9349 0.9221
8 Xavier 6.61 0.9248 0.9141 0.9194
9 Oregon 6.60 0.9166 0.9165 0.9166
10 Miami FL 6.21 0.9094 0.9117 0.9106
11 Utah 5.76 0.8983 0.8769 0.8876
12 Texas A&M 4.60 0.8895 0.9061 0.8978
13 Purdue 4.57 0.8891 0.9222 0.9057
14 Maryland 4.11 0.8787 0.8955 0.8871
15 Seton Hall 4.03 0.8776 0.8808 0.8792
16 Kentucky 4.02 0.8775 0.9242 0.9009
17 SMU 3.77 0.892 0.9066 0.8993
18 Louisville 3.76 0.8754 0.9216 0.8985
19 Duke 3.65 0.8664 0.9057 0.886
20 Indiana 3.45 0.8739 0.9085 0.8912
21 Arizona 3.39 0.8681 0.9108 0.8895
22 Iowa St. 3.26 0.8598 0.9038 0.8818
23 Baylor 3.08 0.8561 0.8859 0.871
24 Texas 2.66 0.8493 0.8646 0.857
25 California 2.58 0.85 0.8885 0.8692
26 Providence 2.25 0.8445 0.8275 0.836
27 Iowa 2.18 0.8447 0.8987 0.8717
28 Saint Joseph’s 2.06 0.8489 0.8252 0.837
29 Arkansas Little Rock 2.01 0.8662 0.774 0.8201
30 Notre Dame 1.95 0.8384 0.8504 0.8444
31 Dayton 1.91 0.8465 0.8173 0.8319
32 Gonzaga 1.71 0.842 0.8838 0.8629
33 South Carolina 1.59 0.837 0.8246 0.8308
34 Saint Mary’s 1.57 0.8479 0.8592 0.8535
35 Butler 1.41 0.8302 0.8552 0.8427
36 Michigan 1.22 0.8234 0.8168 0.8201
37 Texas Tech 1.02 0.8209 0.827 0.8239
38 Connecticut 0.93 0.8199 0.8765 0.8482
39 Chattanooga 0.92 0.8303 0.6833 0.7568
40 Colorado 0.92 0.8189 0.8156 0.8173
41 Pittsburgh 0.88 0.8185 0.841 0.8298
42 Valparaiso 0.56 0.8171 0.8351 0.8261
43 Cincinnati 0.50 0.8112 0.8655 0.8384
44 Wisconsin 0.46 0.8096 0.855 0.8323
45 Monmouth 0.27 0.8076 0.7515 0.7795
46 Hawaii 0.25 0.809 0.7824 0.7957
47 Oregon St. 0.23 0.8049 0.7919 0.7984
48 USC 0.09 0.8019 0.8284 0.8152
49 Temple -0.06 0.7988 0.7355 0.7671
50 Wichita St. -0.09 0.7975 0.8919 0.8447
51 Princeton -0.17 0.7942 0.7522 0.7732
52 VCU -0.21 0.7949 0.863 0.829
53 Yale -0.25 0.7914 0.8151 0.8033
54 St. Bonaventure -0.26 0.7927 0.7467 0.7697
55 UNC Wilmington -0.28 0.7917 0.7392 0.7655
56 Florida St. -0.32 0.7933 0.8153 0.8043
57 San Diego St. -0.33 0.7919 0.8142 0.8031
58 Georgia Tech -0.44 0.7912 0.7993 0.7952
59 Florida -0.48 0.7902 0.8432 0.8167
60 Syracuse -0.76 0.7836 0.8385 0.8111
61 Houston -0.85 0.7773 0.7841 0.7807
62 Vanderbilt -0.86 0.7814 0.8836 0.8325
63 Tulsa -0.89 0.7789 0.7886 0.7837
64 Ohio St. -0.94 0.7799 0.7702 0.7751
65 Virginia Tech -0.94 0.7805 0.7711 0.7758
66 Stephen F. Austin -1.02 0.7541 0.8111 0.7826
67 Grand Canyon -1.09 0.7583 0.6126 0.6854
68 South Dakota St. -1.11 0.7637 0.7364 0.75
69 UAB -1.11 0.7576 0.6394 0.6985
70 Stony Brook -1.14 0.7566 0.7115 0.734
71 UC Irvine -1.17 0.7688 0.7143 0.7416
72 Akron -1.18 0.7655 0.7341 0.7498
73 Georgia -1.18 0.774 0.7837 0.7789
74 Hofstra -1.27 0.7654 0.713 0.7392
75 Fresno St. -1.31 0.7646 0.6785 0.7215
76 Texas A&M Corpus Chris -1.32 0.7551 0.5098 0.6324
77 George Washington -1.39 0.7645 0.7724 0.7685
78 Alabama -1.44 0.7687 0.7267 0.7477
79 Northwestern -1.54 0.7641 0.7669 0.7655
80 Evansville -1.86 0.7471 0.7523 0.7497
81 Marquette -1.87 0.758 0.7088 0.7334
82 Kansas St. -1.93 0.7596 0.8132 0.7864
83 BYU -1.97 0.7475 0.8089 0.7782
84 Mississippi -1.99 0.7523 0.7483 0.7503
85 Washington -2.04 0.7544 0.7958 0.7751
86 LSU -2.28 0.7495 0.7426 0.746
87 IPFW -2.36 0.7289 0.6036 0.6662
88 Davidson -2.55 0.7363 0.6795 0.7079
89 Northern Iowa -2.60 0.7371 0.7387 0.7379
90 Creighton -2.64 0.739 0.8247 0.7819
91 Stanford -2.66 0.7366 0.7017 0.7191
92 Clemson -3.10 0.725 0.8127 0.7688
93 Iona -3.11 0.7071 0.7165 0.7118
94 Long Beach St. -3.28 0.7247 0.6831 0.7039
95 Oakland -3.29 0.7081 0.7202 0.7142
96 Middle Tennessee -3.32 0.6891 0.6004 0.6448
97 William & Mary -3.45 0.7006 0.7191 0.7099
98 Cal St. Bakersfield -3.46 0.665 0.6638 0.6644
99 UT Arlington -3.77 0.6819 0.6853 0.6836
100 Southern Illinois -3.86 0.6763 0.5743 0.6253
101 Boise St. -3.89 0.6935 0.7096 0.7016
102 Weber St. -3.97 0.6364 0.5818 0.6091
103 UCLA -4.02 0.7068 0.762 0.7344
104 Albany -4.05 0.6286 0.5908 0.6097
105 James Madison -4.07 0.6787 0.7109 0.6948
106 Columbia -4.29 0.6548 0.6241 0.6394
107 New Mexico St. -4.29 0.6581 0.6457 0.6519
108 Arizona St. -4.35 0.6977 0.7234 0.7106
109 Green Bay -4.42 0.6793 0.6272 0.6533
110 Louisiana Tech -4.44 0.6298 0.5309 0.5803
111 Winthrop -4.50 0.6262 0.5361 0.5811
112 East Tennessee St. -4.54 0.6625 0.5423 0.6024
113 North Carolina St. -4.55 0.6953 0.7509 0.7231
114 Penn St. -4.57 0.6898 0.5976 0.6437
115 UC Santa Barbara -4.70 0.6696 0.6819 0.6757
116 Memphis -4.93 0.6729 0.7639 0.7184
117 Ohio -4.99 0.6386 0.5963 0.6174
118 Belmont -5.00 0.6358 0.5914 0.6136
119 Arkansas -5.09 0.6742 0.7527 0.7134
120 Georgetown -5.20 0.6788 0.778 0.7284
121 North Florida -5.23 0.6292 0.4745 0.5519
122 High Point -5.38 0.5953 0.5564 0.5758
123 Louisiana Monroe -5.40 0.634 0.5984 0.6162
124 Pepperdine -5.60 0.6346 0.5979 0.6162
125 Montana -5.65 0.6053 0.5382 0.5718
126 Nevada -5.68 0.6344 0.5693 0.6019
127 Nebraska -5.73 0.6677 0.7181 0.6929
128 Siena -5.79 0.6188 0.6192 0.619
129 Hampton -5.81 0.568 0.3171 0.4426
130 Buffalo -5.81 0.6446 0.5952 0.6199
131 UNC Asheville -5.84 0.5972 0.6338 0.6155
132 Tennessee Tech -5.84 0.5892 0.427 0.5081
133 Wright St. -5.91 0.6323 0.5585 0.5954
134 Illinois St. -5.95 0.6336 0.5895 0.6116
135 Towson -5.97 0.6074 0.5463 0.5769
136 Tennessee St. -6.03 0.5498 0.4811 0.5154
137 Richmond -6.17 0.6395 0.6982 0.6688
138 Rhode Island -6.17 0.6333 0.7331 0.6832
139 Mississippi St. -6.27 0.6355 0.7331 0.6843
140 Vermont -6.33 0.6118 0.5234 0.5676
141 Tennessee -6.38 0.6508 0.6823 0.6666
142 Morehead St. -6.47 0.5788 0.5662 0.5725
143 Northern Illinois -6.52 0.5821 0.5146 0.5484
144 Old Dominion -6.53 0.6055 0.6476 0.6266
145 UNLV -6.55 0.6229 0.6334 0.6281
146 Wake Forest -6.57 0.6272 0.6198 0.6235
147 Fordham -6.58 0.5876 0.5391 0.5633
148 Milwaukee -6.58 0.5978 0.6297 0.6138
149 Wagner -6.60 0.5111 0.4397 0.4754
150 Fairfield -6.69 0.5897 0.4338 0.5117
151 Northeastern -6.75 0.6154 0.5953 0.6053
152 Kent St. -6.77 0.5855 0.4855 0.5355
153 Illinois -6.82 0.6381 0.6239 0.631
154 TCU -6.89 0.6307 0.5854 0.608
155 Coastal Carolina -6.95 0.5155 0.4919 0.5037
156 College of Charleston -6.99 0.5868 0.6101 0.5984
157 North Dakota St. -7.17 0.5693 0.5351 0.5522
158 New Mexico -7.17 0.595 0.6281 0.6116
159 Oklahoma St. -7.18 0.616 0.7033 0.6596
160 Incarnate Word -7.29 0.5239 0.3059 0.4149
161 New Hampshire -7.35 0.5276 0.3338 0.4307
162 Nebraska Omaha -7.39 0.5502 0.5461 0.5481
163 Eastern Michigan -7.45 0.5876 0.5477 0.5676
164 Utah St. -7.48 0.5773 0.5773 0.5773
165 Louisiana Lafayette -7.60 0.5585 0.6041 0.5813
166 Idaho -7.75 0.5085 0.3836 0.4461
167 Texas Southern -7.78 0.5539 0.4224 0.4882
168 Southern -8.13 0.4852 0.3388 0.412
169 Duquesne -8.14 0.5657 0.5322 0.5489
170 Ball St. -8.18 0.5093 0.5155 0.5124
171 Elon -8.28 0.5597 0.5092 0.5345
172 Georgia St. -8.55 0.5035 0.4509 0.4772
173 Detroit -8.58 0.5271 0.4816 0.5043
174 Marshall -8.60 0.5515 0.5375 0.5445
175 Colorado St. -8.73 0.5502 0.5484 0.5493
176 Florida Gulf Coast -8.74 0.4774 0.4596 0.4685
177 NJIT -8.76 0.4971 0.3873 0.4422
178 Auburn -8.85 0.5528 0.4435 0.4982
179 Central Michigan -8.87 0.5179 0.5277 0.5228
180 Murray St. -8.88 0.4902 0.4865 0.4883
181 Massachusetts -8.97 0.5502 0.4929 0.5215
182 Harvard -9.01 0.5152 0.4653 0.4903
183 Bucknell -9.02 0.4443 0.4653 0.4548
184 San Francisco -9.03 0.4987 0.4231 0.4609
185 Mercer -9.10 0.4861 0.4434 0.4648
186 Tennessee Martin -9.16 0.4828 0.3791 0.431
187 Indiana St. -9.17 0.5337 0.4764 0.505
188 South Carolina St. -9.21 0.4796 0.2544 0.367
189 Army -9.29 0.434 0.3402 0.3871
190 Oral Roberts -9.31 0.5208 0.4699 0.4954
191 Loyola Marymount -9.39 0.5172 0.3803 0.4488
192 Furman -9.44 0.4932 0.4753 0.4842
193 Radford -9.45 0.4818 0.3682 0.425
194 UTEP -9.51 0.4607 0.373 0.4169
195 Missouri -9.53 0.5281 0.5155 0.5218
196 Lehigh -9.54 0.4824 0.4453 0.4639
197 Loyola Chicago -9.63 0.5139 0.4556 0.4847
198 Sam Houston St. -9.74 0.4768 0.3727 0.4248
199 Western Carolina -9.77 0.5139 0.4133 0.4636
200 Western Kentucky -9.77 0.5024 0.4714 0.4869
201 Toledo -9.78 0.4694 0.5946 0.532
202 Navy -9.85 0.4388 0.4005 0.4196
203 Gardner Webb -9.92 0.4896 0.3508 0.4202
204 UCF -9.93 0.4953 0.4656 0.4804
205 Fairleigh Dickinson -9.97 0.4256 0.2765 0.3511
206 DePaul -10.00 0.5082 0.4348 0.4715
207 Wofford -10.05 0.495 0.4144 0.4547
208 East Carolina -10.08 0.519 0.4383 0.4786
209 Denver -10.09 0.4452 0.4477 0.4464
210 Boston University -10.15 0.4131 0.3487 0.3809
211 Houston Baptist -10.46 0.4615 0.2428 0.3522
212 Jackson St. -10.51 0.4355 0.2985 0.367
213 Eastern Kentucky -10.51 0.4465 0.4081 0.4273
214 Saint Peter’s -10.54 0.4381 0.384 0.411
215 Washington St. -10.69 0.4846 0.4477 0.4661
216 Eastern Washington -10.74 0.4108 0.4043 0.4075
217 Norfolk St. -10.75 0.4456 0.3161 0.3808
218 North Dakota -10.78 0.408 0.3968 0.4024
219 Wyoming -10.81 0.4744 0.4718 0.4731
220 IUPUI -10.84 0.4838 0.362 0.4229
221 Idaho St. -10.93 0.3919 0.2431 0.3175
222 Savannah St. -11.02 0.3859 0.1574 0.2717
223 Texas St. -11.03 0.4175 0.3793 0.3984
224 Missouri St. -11.07 0.474 0.3404 0.4072
225 Western Illinois -11.16 0.3937 0.3321 0.3629
226 Austin Peay -11.22 0.4557 0.3714 0.4136
227 Georgia Southern -11.38 0.4218 0.3604 0.3911
228 Alcorn St. -11.38 0.3544 0.1656 0.26
229 Air Force -11.38 0.4478 0.3213 0.3846
230 Seattle -11.40 0.3883 0.2278 0.3081
231 Penn -11.46 0.3898 0.3037 0.3467
232 South Dakota -11.47 0.4437 0.3604 0.4021
233 Tulane -11.56 0.4917 0.401 0.4463
234 Cornell -11.85 0.385 0.2436 0.3143
235 Jacksonville -11.95 0.3671 0.251 0.309
236 Bowling Green -12.01 0.4322 0.3605 0.3963
237 Manhattan -12.02 0.4086 0.319 0.3638
238 George Mason -12.09 0.4473 0.4109 0.4291
239 UNC Greensboro -12.17 0.4096 0.3479 0.3788
240 Western Michigan -12.19 0.4255 0.4554 0.4405
241 St. John’s -12.23 0.437 0.3747 0.4059
242 Montana St. -12.27 0.3722 0.2861 0.3291
243 Santa Clara -12.27 0.4221 0.3336 0.3779
244 Saint Louis -12.34 0.4373 0.3651 0.4012
245 Eastern Illinois -12.44 0.3544 0.2671 0.3108
246 Dartmouth -12.47 0.3535 0.3377 0.3456
247 Cal Poly -12.48 0.4007 0.3974 0.3991
248 Boston College -12.48 0.4185 0.3514 0.3849
249 Colgate -12.51 0.3498 0.2978 0.3238
250 LIU Brooklyn -12.53 0.27 0.2231 0.2465
251 Utah Valley -12.53 0.3729 0.2288 0.3009
252 South Alabama -12.63 0.4134 0.2798 0.3466
253 Alabama St. -12.69 0.3471 0.2008 0.2739
254 Minnesota -12.75 0.4074 0.4502 0.4288
255 Portland -12.76 0.4124 0.3868 0.3996
256 UMKC -12.87 0.3836 0.2835 0.3336
257 Sacramento St. -12.88 0.3357 0.2503 0.293
258 UMass Lowell -12.89 0.3436 0.1709 0.2572
259 Canisius -12.90 0.4007 0.3491 0.3749
260 Pacific -12.95 0.35 0.353 0.3515
261 Kennesaw St. -12.97 0.3924 0.2714 0.3319
262 Charlotte -12.97 0.3972 0.4181 0.4077
263 St. Francis PA -13.14 0.311 0.2052 0.2581
264 La Salle -13.15 0.3954 0.2899 0.3427
265 UC Davis -13.22 0.3562 0.3203 0.3383
266 Samford -13.32 0.3798 0.3485 0.3642
267 Sacred Heart -13.39 0.3261 0.1965 0.2613
268 Miami OH -13.41 0.3936 0.3411 0.3673
269 UC Riverside -13.41 0.3754 0.3458 0.3606
270 Liberty -13.43 0.3657 0.2263 0.296
271 Rider -13.51 0.3888 0.3624 0.3756
272 St. Francis NY -13.58 0.2971 0.2396 0.2683
273 Bethune Cookman -13.60 0.3314 0.1785 0.2549
274 Mount St. Mary’s -13.61 0.3654 0.2818 0.3236
275 Cal St. Northridge -13.70 0.347 0.3215 0.3343
276 Cal St. Fullerton -13.79 0.3431 0.2737 0.3084
277 Arkansas St. -13.84 0.353 0.2949 0.324
278 Northern Kentucky -13.85 0.3492 0.2928 0.321
279 Youngstown St. -13.85 0.3761 0.242 0.3091
280 Portland St. -14.03 0.2982 0.2851 0.2916
281 Rutgers -14.09 0.367 0.248 0.3075
282 Abilene Christian -14.15 0.2908 0.1811 0.236
283 San Diego -14.25 0.3325 0.2641 0.2983
284 American -14.29 0.3114 0.1839 0.2477
285 Holy Cross -14.33 0.3273 0.249 0.2881
286 Brown -14.47 0.2827 0.2553 0.269
287 FIU -14.59 0.3046 0.3431 0.3238
288 Rice -14.67 0.3242 0.242 0.2831
289 North Texas -14.69 0.3233 0.2133 0.2683
290 Campbell -14.76 0.2441 0.2086 0.2263
291 Appalachian St. -14.82 0.3303 0.282 0.3062
292 Alabama A&M -14.84 0.2301 0.1678 0.199
293 South Florida -14.98 0.3581 0.3539 0.356
294 McNeese St. -15.04 0.2708 0.1303 0.2006
295 Charleston Southern -15.09 0.2959 0.2044 0.2502
296 Northwestern St. -15.10 0.2536 0.1433 0.1985
297 Delaware -15.16 0.301 0.2478 0.2744
298 Presbyterian -15.26 0.2841 0.1562 0.2202
299 Southeastern Louisiana -15.49 0.3143 0.1627 0.2385
300 Maryland Eastern Shore -15.51 0.3163 0.1597 0.238
301 North Carolina Central -15.60 0.2453 0.188 0.2167
302 San Jose St. -15.70 0.2946 0.2879 0.2912
303 Central Arkansas -15.70 0.2373 0.1435 0.1904
304 Lamar -15.72 0.2213 0.1602 0.1908
305 VMI -15.79 0.2647 0.1808 0.2228
306 Cleveland St. -15.93 0.3076 0.2244 0.266
307 Lipscomb -15.93 0.2934 0.2471 0.2702
308 Loyola MD -15.95 0.2578 0.2184 0.2381
309 Howard -16.02 0.2544 0.1429 0.1986
310 Coppin St. -16.09 0.2784 0.1415 0.21
311 Quinnipiac -16.14 0.2491 0.2081 0.2286
312 Troy -16.25 0.2716 0.2262 0.2489
313 Northern Colorado -16.31 0.2536 0.1849 0.2192
314 Nicholls St. -16.33 0.3182 0.138 0.2281
315 New Orleans -16.46 0.2112 0.1617 0.1865
316 Stetson -16.77 0.2839 0.253 0.2684
317 SIU Edwardsville -16.82 0.1984 0.1732 0.1858
318 Drexel -16.93 0.2525 0.3112 0.2818
319 Binghamton -16.94 0.228 0.1538 0.1909
320 UT Rio Grande Valley -16.97 0.2267 0.0906 0.1587
321 Southern Miss -17.05 0.1937 0.1864 0.1901
322 Robert Morris -17.11 0.2471 0.1873 0.2172
323 Drake -17.15 0.2488 0.2675 0.2581
324 Morgan St. -17.28 0.2273 0.1783 0.2028
325 USC Upstate -17.33 0.2373 0.1526 0.1949
326 Maine -17.34 0.2113 0.1159 0.1636
327 The Citadel -17.42 0.2328 0.1569 0.1949
328 Arkansas Pine Bluff -17.59 0.2706 0.0908 0.1807
329 Bryant -17.67 0.2241 0.1006 0.1624
330 North Carolina A&T -17.69 0.2206 0.1105 0.1655
331 Hartford -17.72 0.2489 0.169 0.2089
332 Jacksonville St. -17.83 0.2177 0.1974 0.2076
333 Bradley -18.14 0.2209 0.1439 0.1824
334 Florida A&M -18.24 0.1381 0.063 0.1006
335 Prairie View A&M -18.26 0.2097 0.1107 0.1602
336 Marist -18.27 0.1858 0.1917 0.1887
337 Longwood -18.32 0.2233 0.2142 0.2188
338 Florida Atlantic -18.49 0.2392 0.1916 0.2154
339 Southern Utah -18.86 0.1715 0.1126 0.1421
340 Northern Arizona -18.90 0.1697 0.106 0.1379
341 Niagara -18.98 0.2062 0.17 0.1881
342 Southeast Missouri St. -19.11 0.1445 0.114 0.1292
343 Illinois Chicago -19.41 0.1548 0.124 0.1394
344 Lafayette -19.47 0.151 0.1434 0.1472
345 Delaware St. -19.70 0.1819 0.0732 0.1276
346 Grambling St. -19.76 0.1561 0.0847 0.1204
347 UMBC -20.38 0.1591 0.1363 0.1477
348 Mississippi Valley St. -21.23 0.1897 0.1005 0.1451
349 Chicago St. -21.29 0.1317 0.0843 0.108
350 UTSA -21.55 0.1321 0.105 0.1186
351 Central Connecticut -21.76 0.0745 0.0613 0.0679