Football Outsiders is laying the points:
Ravens | -7.5 | 144975 | 160922 | 0 |
ESPN’s SPI is backing the dog outright:
Texans | 65112 | 193382 | 0 |
We’ll see if it works out for either of them.
Football Outsiders is laying the points:
Ravens | -7.5 | 144975 | 160922 | 0 |
ESPN’s SPI is backing the dog outright:
Texans | 65112 | 193382 | 0 |
We’ll see if it works out for either of them.
Sorry about that. There was a bug. It’s been squashed. Duke is still on top, but now it’s a close race. Syracuse is in 42nd, which seems fair to me. And yes, these are still based on the KenPoms.
Rank | School | WAB |
1 | Duke | 2.87 |
2 | Texas A&M | 2.83 |
3 | Minnesota | 1.79 |
4 | Virginia | 1.73 |
5 | Arizona St. | 1.65 |
6 | Notre Dame | 1.55 |
7 | Washington St. | 1.48 |
8 | North Carolina | 1.41 |
9 | Baylor | 1.33 |
10 | Arkansas | 1.33 |
11 | Nevada | 1.32 |
12 | Villanova | 1.31 |
13 | Michigan St. | 1.28 |
14 | Kansas | 1.24 |
15 | Creighton | 1.14 |
16 | Gonzaga | 1.04 |
17 | Vermont | 1.02 |
18 | Texas Tech | 1.00 |
19 | Florida | 0.96 |
20 | Tennessee | 0.95 |
21 | Wyoming | 0.90 |
22 | West Virginia | 0.88 |
23 | TCU | 0.87 |
24 | Cincinnati | 0.82 |
25 | UCLA | 0.80 |
26 | Albany | 0.79 |
27 | Temple | 0.77 |
28 | Colorado | 0.75 |
29 | Wichita St. | 0.72 |
30 | UT Arlington | 0.67 |
31 | Loyola Chicago | 0.65 |
32 | Northern Iowa | 0.65 |
33 | Kentucky | 0.63 |
34 | UNLV | 0.62 |
35 | Alabama | 0.60 |
36 | Valparaiso | 0.57 |
37 | Xavier | 0.55 |
38 | USC | 0.54 |
39 | San Diego | 0.53 |
40 | Louisiana Tech | 0.53 |
41 | St. John’s | 0.53 |
42 | Syracuse | 0.53 |
43 | Oklahoma | 0.52 |
44 | Miami FL | 0.51 |
45 | Florida St. | 0.50 |
46 | Rhode Island | 0.39 |
47 | Penn St. | 0.39 |
48 | Western Kentucky | 0.39 |
49 | Missouri | 0.38 |
50 | Seton Hall | 0.38 |
51 | Mississippi St. | 0.37 |
52 | Butler | 0.36 |
53 | Providence | 0.36 |
54 | Georgetown | 0.35 |
55 | Louisville | 0.35 |
56 | Illinois | 0.33 |
57 | Utah | 0.32 |
58 | Maryland | 0.32 |
59 | Rider | 0.32 |
60 | Connecticut | 0.30 |
61 | Towson | 0.28 |
62 | Georgia | 0.28 |
63 | Purdue | 0.26 |
64 | Tennessee Tech | 0.22 |
65 | Oklahoma St. | 0.21 |
66 | Texas | 0.18 |
67 | Rutgers | 0.15 |
68 | Central Michigan | 0.11 |
69 | Utah Valley | 0.09 |
70 | Marquette | 0.07 |
71 | Clemson | 0.05 |
72 | South Carolina | 0.04 |
73 | New Mexico St. | 0.02 |
74 | Bradley | 0.02 |
75 | Boise St. | 0.02 |
76 | Belmont | 0.01 |
77 | South Dakota St. | -0.00 |
78 | Auburn | -0.02 |
79 | North Carolina A&T | -0.03 |
80 | Mississippi | -0.04 |
81 | Middle Tennessee | -0.04 |
82 | Furman | -0.07 |
83 | LSU | -0.11 |
84 | Boston College | -0.11 |
85 | Wagner | -0.12 |
86 | Memphis | -0.13 |
87 | Tulane | -0.14 |
88 | Evansville | -0.14 |
89 | Houston | -0.15 |
90 | Michigan | -0.16 |
91 | Drake | -0.18 |
92 | Kansas St. | -0.19 |
93 | Portland St. | -0.19 |
94 | Ohio St. | -0.20 |
95 | Western Illinois | -0.21 |
96 | Lipscomb | -0.23 |
97 | UCF | -0.25 |
98 | Eastern Michigan | -0.26 |
99 | North Carolina St. | -0.28 |
100 | Georgia Southern | -0.30 |
101 | UC Santa Barbara | -0.33 |
102 | Stephen F. Austin | -0.35 |
103 | Lamar | -0.37 |
104 | Georgia Tech | -0.39 |
105 | Louisiana Lafayette | -0.40 |
106 | BYU | -0.41 |
107 | Hawaii | -0.41 |
108 | Charleston Southern | -0.42 |
109 | Virginia Tech | -0.42 |
110 | Murray St. | -0.42 |
111 | Iowa St. | -0.43 |
112 | North Dakota St. | -0.44 |
113 | UNC Asheville | -0.44 |
114 | Washington | -0.44 |
115 | Northwestern | -0.45 |
116 | Milwaukee | -0.46 |
117 | Akron | -0.48 |
118 | Buffalo | -0.48 |
119 | Army | -0.48 |
120 | Old Dominion | -0.48 |
121 | UMass Lowell | -0.51 |
122 | Nebraska | -0.51 |
123 | UNC Greensboro | -0.51 |
124 | Jacksonville St. | -0.57 |
125 | Southern Illinois | -0.60 |
126 | SMU | -0.62 |
127 | St. Bonaventure | -0.63 |
128 | Montana | -0.63 |
129 | College of Charleston | -0.63 |
130 | San Diego St. | -0.64 |
131 | Mercer | -0.65 |
132 | La Salle | -0.69 |
133 | Oregon | -0.69 |
134 | Tennessee St. | -0.70 |
135 | Fresno St. | -0.73 |
136 | Florida Gulf Coast | -0.73 |
137 | Loyola Marymount | -0.73 |
138 | Saint Louis | -0.74 |
139 | Colgate | -0.75 |
140 | Saint Mary’s | -0.75 |
141 | Northern Kentucky | -0.76 |
142 | South Dakota | -0.79 |
143 | Toledo | -0.79 |
144 | Grand Canyon | -0.79 |
145 | UC Davis | -0.82 |
146 | San Francisco | -0.82 |
147 | Idaho | -0.84 |
148 | Morgan St. | -0.84 |
149 | Detroit | -0.84 |
150 | Radford | -0.85 |
151 | Northern Colorado | -0.87 |
152 | Indiana | -0.87 |
153 | Georgia St. | -0.88 |
154 | Bucknell | -0.90 |
155 | Duquesne | -0.92 |
156 | Delaware | -0.93 |
157 | Davidson | -0.93 |
158 | VCU | -0.94 |
159 | Wisconsin | -0.95 |
160 | Liberty | -0.95 |
161 | Dayton | -1.00 |
162 | Central Arkansas | -1.00 |
163 | Ohio | -1.00 |
164 | William & Mary | -1.01 |
165 | Navy | -1.01 |
166 | Coastal Carolina | -1.02 |
167 | Charlotte | -1.03 |
168 | Fort Wayne | -1.04 |
169 | Cal St. Fullerton | -1.05 |
170 | Missouri St. | -1.05 |
171 | American | -1.06 |
172 | NJIT | -1.06 |
173 | St. Francis PA | -1.07 |
174 | Bowling Green | -1.07 |
175 | Oakland | -1.08 |
176 | UMBC | -1.09 |
177 | Arizona | -1.12 |
178 | Cal St. Bakersfield | -1.15 |
179 | Iowa | -1.16 |
180 | UTSA | -1.19 |
181 | Ball St. | -1.20 |
182 | Long Beach St. | -1.21 |
183 | Green Bay | -1.22 |
184 | Western Michigan | -1.24 |
185 | Fairleigh Dickinson | -1.25 |
186 | Illinois St. | -1.26 |
187 | Weber St. | -1.27 |
188 | Monmouth | -1.27 |
189 | Austin Peay | -1.28 |
190 | Marshall | -1.28 |
191 | Air Force | -1.29 |
192 | Elon | -1.30 |
193 | Vanderbilt | -1.31 |
194 | Utah St. | -1.33 |
195 | Incarnate Word | -1.33 |
196 | IUPUI | -1.33 |
197 | The Citadel | -1.35 |
198 | Louisiana Monroe | -1.36 |
199 | Hofstra | -1.38 |
200 | Montana St. | -1.39 |
201 | Troy | -1.40 |
202 | Southeastern Louisiana | -1.41 |
203 | DePaul | -1.42 |
204 | George Mason | -1.44 |
205 | Princeton | -1.45 |
206 | Massachusetts | -1.46 |
207 | East Tennessee St. | -1.46 |
208 | Brown | -1.47 |
209 | Southern Utah | -1.48 |
210 | Central Connecticut | -1.50 |
211 | Robert Morris | -1.52 |
212 | Prairie View A&M | -1.53 |
213 | Northern Illinois | -1.53 |
214 | Nicholls St. | -1.54 |
215 | South Alabama | -1.55 |
216 | Mount St. Mary’s | -1.56 |
217 | Lehigh | -1.60 |
218 | Fairfield | -1.60 |
219 | Colorado St. | -1.61 |
220 | McNeese St. | -1.61 |
221 | Niagara | -1.63 |
222 | UC Riverside | -1.64 |
223 | Yale | -1.65 |
224 | Eastern Washington | -1.67 |
225 | Dartmouth | -1.69 |
226 | Cornell | -1.69 |
227 | Columbia | -1.70 |
228 | Saint Peter’s | -1.70 |
229 | UNC Wilmington | -1.71 |
230 | Penn | -1.73 |
231 | Holy Cross | -1.74 |
232 | Saint Joseph’s | -1.75 |
233 | Appalachian St. | -1.77 |
234 | Eastern Illinois | -1.79 |
235 | Southern Miss | -1.80 |
236 | Tulsa | -1.85 |
237 | Illinois Chicago | -1.87 |
238 | Wofford | -1.87 |
239 | Winthrop | -1.89 |
240 | Morehead St. | -1.90 |
241 | George Washington | -1.91 |
242 | High Point | -1.92 |
243 | North Texas | -1.92 |
244 | North Dakota | -1.94 |
245 | Chattanooga | -1.95 |
246 | Western Carolina | -1.97 |
247 | Oregon St. | -1.98 |
248 | Maryland Eastern Shore | -2.01 |
249 | Eastern Kentucky | -2.02 |
250 | Sam Houston St. | -2.07 |
251 | SIU Edwardsville | -2.07 |
252 | Fordham | -2.08 |
253 | Boston University | -2.08 |
254 | Wright St. | -2.09 |
255 | Texas Southern | -2.09 |
256 | Miami OH | -2.10 |
257 | UC Irvine | -2.10 |
258 | South Florida | -2.11 |
259 | UAB | -2.12 |
260 | Jackson St. | -2.12 |
261 | Kent St. | -2.16 |
262 | Florida Atlantic | -2.16 |
263 | New Mexico | -2.16 |
264 | VMI | -2.18 |
265 | Pepperdine | -2.21 |
266 | Abilene Christian | -2.24 |
267 | Iona | -2.24 |
268 | Bethune Cookman | -2.27 |
269 | Cal Poly | -2.27 |
270 | Indiana St. | -2.27 |
271 | Northeastern | -2.28 |
272 | Pittsburgh | -2.29 |
273 | Houston Baptist | -2.33 |
274 | San Jose St. | -2.36 |
275 | UMKC | -2.36 |
276 | Stetson | -2.37 |
277 | New Orleans | -2.39 |
278 | Texas St. | -2.41 |
279 | Savannah St. | -2.41 |
280 | Stony Brook | -2.41 |
281 | FIU | -2.43 |
282 | Portland | -2.44 |
283 | UTEP | -2.44 |
284 | Texas A&M Corpus Chris | -2.44 |
285 | Siena | -2.45 |
286 | Harvard | -2.47 |
287 | Grambling St. | -2.50 |
288 | Seattle | -2.50 |
289 | Arkansas St. | -2.56 |
290 | Jacksonville | -2.62 |
291 | Sacred Heart | -2.64 |
292 | Samford | -2.66 |
293 | California | -2.70 |
294 | Pacific | -2.72 |
295 | Loyola MD | -2.74 |
296 | Stanford | -2.74 |
297 | Denver | -2.78 |
298 | Oral Roberts | -2.78 |
299 | Campbell | -2.79 |
300 | Rice | -2.80 |
301 | Southern | -2.80 |
302 | New Hampshire | -2.81 |
303 | UT Rio Grande Valley | -2.82 |
304 | Idaho St. | -2.84 |
305 | Canisius | -2.85 |
306 | Drexel | -2.86 |
307 | Northwestern St. | -2.90 |
308 | Wake Forest | -2.91 |
309 | Southeast Missouri St. | -2.91 |
310 | Binghamton | -2.93 |
311 | Delaware St. | -2.94 |
312 | North Florida | -2.96 |
313 | Kennesaw St. | -3.00 |
314 | Cal St. Northridge | -3.06 |
315 | Cleveland St. | -3.07 |
316 | Manhattan | -3.14 |
317 | USC Upstate | -3.14 |
318 | Alcorn St. | -3.21 |
319 | Richmond | -3.22 |
320 | Hampton | -3.27 |
321 | Lafayette | -3.29 |
322 | Bryant | -3.30 |
323 | South Carolina St. | -3.34 |
324 | North Carolina Central | -3.34 |
325 | Gardner Webb | -3.35 |
326 | East Carolina | -3.37 |
327 | Maine | -3.38 |
328 | Presbyterian | -3.40 |
329 | Alabama St. | -3.48 |
330 | Hartford | -3.53 |
331 | Alabama A&M | -3.53 |
332 | Coppin St. | -3.60 |
333 | Northern Arizona | -3.66 |
334 | Howard | -3.68 |
335 | Chicago St. | -3.78 |
336 | St. Francis NY | -3.84 |
337 | Tennessee Martin | -3.85 |
338 | James Madison | -3.87 |
339 | Little Rock | -3.88 |
340 | Quinnipiac | -3.89 |
341 | Florida A&M | -3.93 |
342 | Nebraska Omaha | -3.94 |
343 | LIU Brooklyn | -3.97 |
344 | Youngstown St. | -4.15 |
345 | Longwood | -4.20 |
346 | Sacramento St. | -4.25 |
347 | Marist | -4.26 |
348 | Santa Clara | -4.26 |
349 | Mississippi Valley St. | -4.33 |
350 | Norfolk St. | -4.55 |
351 | Arkansas Pine Bluff | -6.00 |
Football Outsiders is backing the Packers:
Packers | 14.0 | 29400 | 26486 | 0 |
But not nearly as much as ESPN’s SPI:
Packers | 53062 | 339068 | 0 |
One of these games is not like the others:
49ers | 6.5 | 121200 | 112222 | 0 |
Rams | -2.5 | 105544 | 90986 | 0 |
Jaguars | -5.5 | 101856 | 94311 | 0 |
Broncos | 5.0 | 1432 | 1338 | 0 |
As for ESPN’s SPI:
Seahawks | 116250 | 46500 | 0 |
Saints | 103527 | 133550 | 0 |
Cardinals | 7431 | 16794 | 0 |
Raiders | 145660 | 76663 | 0 |
Notes:
Team | Opponent | WAB + | Wab – |
Clemson | Miami FL | 3.10 | 2.10 |
Oklahoma | TCU | 3.15 | 2.15 |
Wisconsin | Ohio St | 3.31 | 2.31 |
Georgia | Auburn | 2.92 | 1.92 |
Alabama | Bye | 2.03 | 2.03 |
Auburn | Georgia | 2.64 | 1.64 |
Miami FL | Clemson | 2.49 | 1.49 |
UCF | Memphis | 1.86 | 0.86 |
Ohio St | Wisconsin | 2.12 | 1.12 |
TCU | Oklahoma | 2.08 | 1.08 |
Football Outsiders expects the Colts to run past the Titans:
Browns | 8.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles | -13.5 | 104000 | 104000 | 0 |
Dolphins | 16.5 | 21750 | 18913 | 0 |
Bills | 10.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Falcons | -10.0 | 49550 | 55000 | 0 |
Panthers | -4.5 | 26032 | 24558 | 0 |
Colts | 3.0 | 234019 | 243380 | 0 |
Football Outsiders is currently up $1,816,402.
ESPN’s SPI is rooting for the Eagles, Chiefs, and Buccaneers:
Browns | 765 | 2288 | 0 |
Eagles | 251510 | 31837 | 0 |
Patriots | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Chiefs | 207420 | 57617 | 0 |
Buccaneers | 50486 | 210020 | 0 |
Panthers | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Titans | 8830 | 5194 | 0 |
They currently are $532,009 in the hole.
I wanted to run the WAB’s first thing this morning. I ran them with the Sagarin ratings I’ve been using, and then as a test I ran them with the FPI numbers as well. Since FPI only covers 130 teams, I filled in the Sagarin ratings, when FPI data was missing, but that matters a bit less than you’d think as FPI covers the teams we care about.
A reminder: For Wisconsin and UCF the chance of a top 25 team going undefeated vs. their schedule is double the percentile. Using the FPI #’s I’m getting 6.7% of top 25 teams going undefeated vs. Wiksy’s schedule, and 17.2% vs. UCF’s. 12% for Wisconsin and 31% for UCF appear to be ludicrous. Interestingly enough, using the FPI #’s, Georgia’s WAB is slightly better than Wisconsin’s.
Three SEC teams in the top six. Miami will crack the top four with a win vs. Clemson. Clemson and Oklahoma clinch top four spots with wins over Miami and TCU respectively. The Georgia/Auburn winner is in the top four with a win as well. Wisconsin is easily in with a win. However, what if TCU and Ohio State win? Then things get interesting. I’ll run the #’s on various scenarios later this week. For now, the WAB’s:
Rank | School | WAB SAG | Top % S | WAB FPI | Top % F |
1 | Clemson | 2.64 | 3.67% | 2.72 | 3.41% |
2 | Oklahoma | 2.62 | 3.05% | 2.54 | 3.51% |
3 | Wisconsin | 2.59 | 2.49% | 2.37 | 3.35% |
4 | Georgia | 2.27 | 4.93% | 2.42 | 4.28% |
5 | Alabama | 2.03 | 6.86% | 2.19 | 5.78% |
6 | Auburn | 1.98 | 8.61% | 2.04 | 8.36% |
7 | Miami FL | 1.82 | 10.18% | 1.83 | 9.92% |
8 | UCF | 1.56 | 8.79% | 1.58 | 8.60% |
9 | Ohio St | 1.48 | 16.08% | 1.25 | 20.32% |
10 | TCU | 1.47 | 15.78% | 1.38 | 17.59% |
11 | Penn St | 1.39 | 16.80% | 1.15 | 21.38% |
12 | USC | 1.38 | 18.87% | 1.3 | 20.32% |
13 | Michigan St | 1.02 | 25.23% | 0.81 | 30.19% |
14 | Notre Dame | 0.89 | 29.26% | 0.86 | 30.17% |
15 | Memphis | 0.71 | 29.61% | 0.74 | 28.94% |
16 | Washington | 0.69 | 33.28% | 0.69 | 33.23% |
17 | Stanford | 0.56 | 36.97% | 0.49 | 38.92% |
18 | James Madison | 0.49 | 30.27% | 0.51 | 29.39% |
19 | Oklahoma St | 0.4 | 40.77% | 0.28 | 44.14% |
20 | Washington St | 0.37 | 41.43% | 0.33 | 42.41% |
21 | Northwestern | 0.33 | 42.32% | 0.04 | 50.30% |
22 | LSU | 0.24 | 44.58% | 0.36 | 41.33% |
23 | NC A&T | 0.13 | 43.83% | 0.15 | 43.01% |
24 | Virginia Tech | 0.1 | 48.51% | 0.07 | 49.54% |
25 | N Dakota St | 0.01 | 53.31% | 0.06 | 51.33% |
26 | Michigan | -0.15 | 54.99% | -0.35 | 60.43% |
27 | San Diego St | -0.26 | 60.63% | -0.24 | 60.06% |
28 | NC State | -0.29 | 58.38% | -0.22 | 56.50% |
29 | Jacksonville St | -0.3 | 65.60% | -0.3 | 65.63% |
30 | Toledo | -0.31 | 62.47% | -0.26 | 61.00% |
31 | Fresno St | -0.38 | 64.10% | -0.4 | 64.42% |
32 | Cent Arkansas | -0.4 | 70.59% | -0.39 | 69.93% |
33 | Mississippi St | -0.41 | 62.56% | -0.34 | 60.39% |
34 | Sam Houston St | -0.61 | 80.67% | -0.59 | 79.64% |
35 | Kennesaw | -0.62 | 81.09% | -0.6 | 80.08% |
36 | South Florida | -0.62 | 72.79% | -0.59 | 71.61% |
37 | Troy | -0.68 | 75.09% | -0.63 | 73.18% |
38 | Yale | -0.73 | 86.80% | -0.72 | 86.06% |
39 | Grambling | -0.75 | 87.49% | -0.73 | 86.34% |
40 | Iowa | -0.77 | 69.70% | -1.12 | 77.31% |
FO:
Redskins | -7.5 | 74943 | 79440 | 0 |
SPI:
Giants | 75329 | 208662 | 0 |
FO:
Cowboys | 2.5 | 66962 | 65649 | 0 |
SPI:
Cowboys | 146142 | 151988 | 0 |
Football Outsiders is currently up $1,860,408:
Lions | 3.0 | 56484 | 48277 | 0 |
ESPN’s SPI is down $298,188:
Lions | 12349 | 14572 | 0 |