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Monthly Archives: November 2017

Football Outsiders is laying the points:

Ravens -7.5 144975 160922 0

ESPN’s SPI is backing the dog outright:

Texans 65112 193382 0

We’ll see if it works out for either of them.

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Sorry about that. There was a bug. It’s been squashed. Duke is still on top, but now it’s a close race. Syracuse is in 42nd, which seems fair to me. And yes, these are still based on the KenPoms.

 

Rank School WAB
1 Duke 2.87
2 Texas A&M 2.83
3 Minnesota 1.79
4 Virginia 1.73
5 Arizona St. 1.65
6 Notre Dame 1.55
7 Washington St. 1.48
8 North Carolina 1.41
9 Baylor 1.33
10 Arkansas 1.33
11 Nevada 1.32
12 Villanova 1.31
13 Michigan St. 1.28
14 Kansas 1.24
15 Creighton 1.14
16 Gonzaga 1.04
17 Vermont 1.02
18 Texas Tech 1.00
19 Florida 0.96
20 Tennessee 0.95
21 Wyoming 0.90
22 West Virginia 0.88
23 TCU 0.87
24 Cincinnati 0.82
25 UCLA 0.80
26 Albany 0.79
27 Temple 0.77
28 Colorado 0.75
29 Wichita St. 0.72
30 UT Arlington 0.67
31 Loyola Chicago 0.65
32 Northern Iowa 0.65
33 Kentucky 0.63
34 UNLV 0.62
35 Alabama 0.60
36 Valparaiso 0.57
37 Xavier 0.55
38 USC 0.54
39 San Diego 0.53
40 Louisiana Tech 0.53
41 St. John’s 0.53
42 Syracuse 0.53
43 Oklahoma 0.52
44 Miami FL 0.51
45 Florida St. 0.50
46 Rhode Island 0.39
47 Penn St. 0.39
48 Western Kentucky 0.39
49 Missouri 0.38
50 Seton Hall 0.38
51 Mississippi St. 0.37
52 Butler 0.36
53 Providence 0.36
54 Georgetown 0.35
55 Louisville 0.35
56 Illinois 0.33
57 Utah 0.32
58 Maryland 0.32
59 Rider 0.32
60 Connecticut 0.30
61 Towson 0.28
62 Georgia 0.28
63 Purdue 0.26
64 Tennessee Tech 0.22
65 Oklahoma St. 0.21
66 Texas 0.18
67 Rutgers 0.15
68 Central Michigan 0.11
69 Utah Valley 0.09
70 Marquette 0.07
71 Clemson 0.05
72 South Carolina 0.04
73 New Mexico St. 0.02
74 Bradley 0.02
75 Boise St. 0.02
76 Belmont 0.01
77 South Dakota St. -0.00
78 Auburn -0.02
79 North Carolina A&T -0.03
80 Mississippi -0.04
81 Middle Tennessee -0.04
82 Furman -0.07
83 LSU -0.11
84 Boston College -0.11
85 Wagner -0.12
86 Memphis -0.13
87 Tulane -0.14
88 Evansville -0.14
89 Houston -0.15
90 Michigan -0.16
91 Drake -0.18
92 Kansas St. -0.19
93 Portland St. -0.19
94 Ohio St. -0.20
95 Western Illinois -0.21
96 Lipscomb -0.23
97 UCF -0.25
98 Eastern Michigan -0.26
99 North Carolina St. -0.28
100 Georgia Southern -0.30
101 UC Santa Barbara -0.33
102 Stephen F. Austin -0.35
103 Lamar -0.37
104 Georgia Tech -0.39
105 Louisiana Lafayette -0.40
106 BYU -0.41
107 Hawaii -0.41
108 Charleston Southern -0.42
109 Virginia Tech -0.42
110 Murray St. -0.42
111 Iowa St. -0.43
112 North Dakota St. -0.44
113 UNC Asheville -0.44
114 Washington -0.44
115 Northwestern -0.45
116 Milwaukee -0.46
117 Akron -0.48
118 Buffalo -0.48
119 Army -0.48
120 Old Dominion -0.48
121 UMass Lowell -0.51
122 Nebraska -0.51
123 UNC Greensboro -0.51
124 Jacksonville St. -0.57
125 Southern Illinois -0.60
126 SMU -0.62
127 St. Bonaventure -0.63
128 Montana -0.63
129 College of Charleston -0.63
130 San Diego St. -0.64
131 Mercer -0.65
132 La Salle -0.69
133 Oregon -0.69
134 Tennessee St. -0.70
135 Fresno St. -0.73
136 Florida Gulf Coast -0.73
137 Loyola Marymount -0.73
138 Saint Louis -0.74
139 Colgate -0.75
140 Saint Mary’s -0.75
141 Northern Kentucky -0.76
142 South Dakota -0.79
143 Toledo -0.79
144 Grand Canyon -0.79
145 UC Davis -0.82
146 San Francisco -0.82
147 Idaho -0.84
148 Morgan St. -0.84
149 Detroit -0.84
150 Radford -0.85
151 Northern Colorado -0.87
152 Indiana -0.87
153 Georgia St. -0.88
154 Bucknell -0.90
155 Duquesne -0.92
156 Delaware -0.93
157 Davidson -0.93
158 VCU -0.94
159 Wisconsin -0.95
160 Liberty -0.95
161 Dayton -1.00
162 Central Arkansas -1.00
163 Ohio -1.00
164 William & Mary -1.01
165 Navy -1.01
166 Coastal Carolina -1.02
167 Charlotte -1.03
168 Fort Wayne -1.04
169 Cal St. Fullerton -1.05
170 Missouri St. -1.05
171 American -1.06
172 NJIT -1.06
173 St. Francis PA -1.07
174 Bowling Green -1.07
175 Oakland -1.08
176 UMBC -1.09
177 Arizona -1.12
178 Cal St. Bakersfield -1.15
179 Iowa -1.16
180 UTSA -1.19
181 Ball St. -1.20
182 Long Beach St. -1.21
183 Green Bay -1.22
184 Western Michigan -1.24
185 Fairleigh Dickinson -1.25
186 Illinois St. -1.26
187 Weber St. -1.27
188 Monmouth -1.27
189 Austin Peay -1.28
190 Marshall -1.28
191 Air Force -1.29
192 Elon -1.30
193 Vanderbilt -1.31
194 Utah St. -1.33
195 Incarnate Word -1.33
196 IUPUI -1.33
197 The Citadel -1.35
198 Louisiana Monroe -1.36
199 Hofstra -1.38
200 Montana St. -1.39
201 Troy -1.40
202 Southeastern Louisiana -1.41
203 DePaul -1.42
204 George Mason -1.44
205 Princeton -1.45
206 Massachusetts -1.46
207 East Tennessee St. -1.46
208 Brown -1.47
209 Southern Utah -1.48
210 Central Connecticut -1.50
211 Robert Morris -1.52
212 Prairie View A&M -1.53
213 Northern Illinois -1.53
214 Nicholls St. -1.54
215 South Alabama -1.55
216 Mount St. Mary’s -1.56
217 Lehigh -1.60
218 Fairfield -1.60
219 Colorado St. -1.61
220 McNeese St. -1.61
221 Niagara -1.63
222 UC Riverside -1.64
223 Yale -1.65
224 Eastern Washington -1.67
225 Dartmouth -1.69
226 Cornell -1.69
227 Columbia -1.70
228 Saint Peter’s -1.70
229 UNC Wilmington -1.71
230 Penn -1.73
231 Holy Cross -1.74
232 Saint Joseph’s -1.75
233 Appalachian St. -1.77
234 Eastern Illinois -1.79
235 Southern Miss -1.80
236 Tulsa -1.85
237 Illinois Chicago -1.87
238 Wofford -1.87
239 Winthrop -1.89
240 Morehead St. -1.90
241 George Washington -1.91
242 High Point -1.92
243 North Texas -1.92
244 North Dakota -1.94
245 Chattanooga -1.95
246 Western Carolina -1.97
247 Oregon St. -1.98
248 Maryland Eastern Shore -2.01
249 Eastern Kentucky -2.02
250 Sam Houston St. -2.07
251 SIU Edwardsville -2.07
252 Fordham -2.08
253 Boston University -2.08
254 Wright St. -2.09
255 Texas Southern -2.09
256 Miami OH -2.10
257 UC Irvine -2.10
258 South Florida -2.11
259 UAB -2.12
260 Jackson St. -2.12
261 Kent St. -2.16
262 Florida Atlantic -2.16
263 New Mexico -2.16
264 VMI -2.18
265 Pepperdine -2.21
266 Abilene Christian -2.24
267 Iona -2.24
268 Bethune Cookman -2.27
269 Cal Poly -2.27
270 Indiana St. -2.27
271 Northeastern -2.28
272 Pittsburgh -2.29
273 Houston Baptist -2.33
274 San Jose St. -2.36
275 UMKC -2.36
276 Stetson -2.37
277 New Orleans -2.39
278 Texas St. -2.41
279 Savannah St. -2.41
280 Stony Brook -2.41
281 FIU -2.43
282 Portland -2.44
283 UTEP -2.44
284 Texas A&M Corpus Chris -2.44
285 Siena -2.45
286 Harvard -2.47
287 Grambling St. -2.50
288 Seattle -2.50
289 Arkansas St. -2.56
290 Jacksonville -2.62
291 Sacred Heart -2.64
292 Samford -2.66
293 California -2.70
294 Pacific -2.72
295 Loyola MD -2.74
296 Stanford -2.74
297 Denver -2.78
298 Oral Roberts -2.78
299 Campbell -2.79
300 Rice -2.80
301 Southern -2.80
302 New Hampshire -2.81
303 UT Rio Grande Valley -2.82
304 Idaho St. -2.84
305 Canisius -2.85
306 Drexel -2.86
307 Northwestern St. -2.90
308 Wake Forest -2.91
309 Southeast Missouri St. -2.91
310 Binghamton -2.93
311 Delaware St. -2.94
312 North Florida -2.96
313 Kennesaw St. -3.00
314 Cal St. Northridge -3.06
315 Cleveland St. -3.07
316 Manhattan -3.14
317 USC Upstate -3.14
318 Alcorn St. -3.21
319 Richmond -3.22
320 Hampton -3.27
321 Lafayette -3.29
322 Bryant -3.30
323 South Carolina St. -3.34
324 North Carolina Central -3.34
325 Gardner Webb -3.35
326 East Carolina -3.37
327 Maine -3.38
328 Presbyterian -3.40
329 Alabama St. -3.48
330 Hartford -3.53
331 Alabama A&M -3.53
332 Coppin St. -3.60
333 Northern Arizona -3.66
334 Howard -3.68
335 Chicago St. -3.78
336 St. Francis NY -3.84
337 Tennessee Martin -3.85
338 James Madison -3.87
339 Little Rock -3.88
340 Quinnipiac -3.89
341 Florida A&M -3.93
342 Nebraska Omaha -3.94
343 LIU Brooklyn -3.97
344 Youngstown St. -4.15
345 Longwood -4.20
346 Sacramento St. -4.25
347 Marist -4.26
348 Santa Clara -4.26
349 Mississippi Valley St. -4.33
350 Norfolk St. -4.55
351 Arkansas Pine Bluff -6.00

One of these games is not like the others:

49ers 6.5 121200 112222 0
Rams -2.5 105544 90986 0
Jaguars -5.5 101856 94311 0
Broncos 5.0 1432 1338 0

As for ESPN’s SPI:

Seahawks 116250 46500 0
Saints 103527 133550 0
Cardinals 7431 16794 0
Raiders 145660 76663 0

Notes:

  1. Alabama won’t finish with a top 4 WAB. They might get invited anyway, but it won’t be because of their resume.
  2. Even with a win Ohio State’s resume won’t be clearly better than Wisconsin’s. Again, I don’t think the committee would care, but the math says what it says.
  3. A win won’t make TCU’s resume clearly better than Oklahoma’s.
  4. A win over Memphis won’t give UCF a top four resume. I’m in favor of expanding the playoff to eight teams, with automatic invites to power five champions, and top three other resumes. Note: It’s possible that even with a win, UCF will end up ninth in the WAB standings if TCU, Ohio State, and Auburn all win.
  5. The consensus is that the ACC and SEC champions are in, as are Wisconsin and Oklahoma with wins. If Oklahoma or Wisconsin loses, we’ll have drama. Wisconsin is likely to lose, which would leave them as 4th in the WAB standings, Ohio State fifth, and Alabama sixth. My guess is Ohio State would be the #4 seed in that scenario. If TCU beats Oklahoma, my guess is that Alabama is the beneficiary, but that is no sure thing.
Team Opponent WAB + Wab –
Clemson Miami FL 3.10 2.10
Oklahoma TCU 3.15 2.15
Wisconsin Ohio St 3.31 2.31
Georgia Auburn 2.92 1.92
Alabama Bye 2.03 2.03
Auburn Georgia 2.64 1.64
Miami FL Clemson 2.49 1.49
UCF Memphis 1.86 0.86
Ohio St Wisconsin 2.12 1.12
TCU Oklahoma 2.08 1.08

Football Outsiders expects the Colts to run past the Titans:

Browns 8.0 0 0 0
Eagles -13.5 104000 104000 0
Dolphins 16.5 21750 18913 0
Bills 10.0 0 0 0
Falcons -10.0 49550 55000 0
Panthers -4.5 26032 24558 0
Colts 3.0 234019 243380 0

Football Outsiders is currently up $1,816,402.

ESPN’s SPI is rooting for the Eagles, Chiefs, and Buccaneers:

Browns 765 2288 0
Eagles 251510 31837 0
Patriots 0 0 0
Chiefs 207420 57617 0
Buccaneers 50486 210020 0
Panthers 0 0 0
Titans 8830 5194 0

They currently are $532,009 in the hole.

 

 

I wanted to run the WAB’s first thing this morning. I ran them with the Sagarin ratings I’ve been using, and then as a test I ran them with the FPI numbers as well. Since FPI only covers 130 teams, I filled in the Sagarin ratings, when FPI data was missing, but that matters a bit less than you’d think as FPI covers the teams we care about.

A reminder: For Wisconsin and UCF the chance of a top 25 team going undefeated vs. their schedule is double the percentile. Using the FPI #’s I’m getting 6.7% of top 25 teams going undefeated vs. Wiksy’s schedule, and 17.2% vs. UCF’s. 12% for Wisconsin and 31% for UCF appear to be ludicrous. Interestingly enough, using the FPI #’s, Georgia’s WAB is slightly better than Wisconsin’s.

Three SEC teams in the top six. Miami will crack the top four with a win vs. Clemson. Clemson and Oklahoma clinch top four spots with wins over Miami and TCU respectively. The Georgia/Auburn winner is in the top four with a win as well. Wisconsin is easily in with a win. However, what if TCU and Ohio State win? Then things get interesting. I’ll run the #’s on various scenarios later this week. For now, the WAB’s:

Rank School WAB SAG Top % S WAB FPI Top % F
1 Clemson 2.64 3.67% 2.72 3.41%
2 Oklahoma 2.62 3.05% 2.54 3.51%
3 Wisconsin 2.59 2.49% 2.37 3.35%
4 Georgia 2.27 4.93% 2.42 4.28%
5 Alabama 2.03 6.86% 2.19 5.78%
6 Auburn 1.98 8.61% 2.04 8.36%
7 Miami FL 1.82 10.18% 1.83 9.92%
8 UCF 1.56 8.79% 1.58 8.60%
9 Ohio St 1.48 16.08% 1.25 20.32%
10 TCU 1.47 15.78% 1.38 17.59%
11 Penn St 1.39 16.80% 1.15 21.38%
12 USC 1.38 18.87% 1.3 20.32%
13 Michigan St 1.02 25.23% 0.81 30.19%
14 Notre Dame 0.89 29.26% 0.86 30.17%
15 Memphis 0.71 29.61% 0.74 28.94%
16 Washington 0.69 33.28% 0.69 33.23%
17 Stanford 0.56 36.97% 0.49 38.92%
18 James Madison 0.49 30.27% 0.51 29.39%
19 Oklahoma St 0.4 40.77% 0.28 44.14%
20 Washington St 0.37 41.43% 0.33 42.41%
21 Northwestern 0.33 42.32% 0.04 50.30%
22 LSU 0.24 44.58% 0.36 41.33%
23 NC A&T 0.13 43.83% 0.15 43.01%
24 Virginia Tech 0.1 48.51% 0.07 49.54%
25 N Dakota St 0.01 53.31% 0.06 51.33%
26 Michigan -0.15 54.99% -0.35 60.43%
27 San Diego St -0.26 60.63% -0.24 60.06%
28 NC State -0.29 58.38% -0.22 56.50%
29 Jacksonville St -0.3 65.60% -0.3 65.63%
30 Toledo -0.31 62.47% -0.26 61.00%
31 Fresno St -0.38 64.10% -0.4 64.42%
32 Cent Arkansas -0.4 70.59% -0.39 69.93%
33 Mississippi St -0.41 62.56% -0.34 60.39%
34 Sam Houston St -0.61 80.67% -0.59 79.64%
35 Kennesaw -0.62 81.09% -0.6 80.08%
36 South Florida -0.62 72.79% -0.59 71.61%
37 Troy -0.68 75.09% -0.63 73.18%
38 Yale -0.73 86.80% -0.72 86.06%
39 Grambling -0.75 87.49% -0.73 86.34%
40 Iowa -0.77 69.70% -1.12 77.31%