Jalen Carter: After the National Championship Game, Jalen Carter was solidly the top non-QB prospect heading into the 2023 NFL Draft. Sure, positional value might have pushed Will Anderson ahead of Carter on some draft boards, but in terms of raw grade, Carter was king.
On January 15th, Jalen Carter raced Chandler LeCroy (who was drunk). LeCroy crashed. She, along with Devin Willock died in the crash. While Carter’s attorney Kim Stephens has claimed he was sober, that’s a claim she has to make for legal reasons and is not something NFL teams will readily believe.
Carter has plead guilty to reckless driving. The legal ramifications will not derail his career, but concerns about alcohol and poor judgment remain. Henry Ruggs III remains fresh in recent memory.
It has become an axiom in the NFL that talent = tolerance. The greater the talent, the more tolerance teams will have for your… issues. With that in mind, I’m sure Carter was looking forward to having a monster pro-day. Instead, he appeared slow and out of shape. Carter skipped drills at the combine, so we don’t have an athletic score for him.
What Carter has going for him is his film. Think of a MLB hitter who crushes mistakes. Carter explodes off the snap and punishes guards who aren’t ready. Excellent at centering his body of gravity to make it difficult for double teams to move him. Has good technique when attacking double-teams. Elite power makes it difficult for guards to hold their ground in single-blocking. Fantastic closer. Does a great job at taking proper angles when tackling. Solid functional strength makes it difficult for ball-carriers to escape his grasp.
Physically Carter is close to the prototype. He has the power to stuff the run and the athletic skills to rush the passer. He’s a true difference-maker, with potential to justify comparisons to Chris Jones, or perhaps even Aaron Donald.
The tape suggests he does a good job in the film room and listens to his coaches. As a player, his weaknesses mostly have to do with conditioning. He wore down against Ohio State. This is an area he’ll have to work on at the next level.
Js per George Young’s planet theory, there simply aren’t many people on the planet capable of dominating in the trenches. He’s one of them. I acknowledge that Carter presents multiple bust traits, between his off-field issues, and his clear lack of commitment to get into peak condition. For a lesser talent, this would be devastating. For Carter, it means he’s unlikely to be the first defensive player taken. I’d be quite comfortable making him either the first or second defensive player off the board (other than Will Anderson). Solid top-five value.
Bryan Bresee: Another solid athlete. Might be a medical red flag due to ACL and shoulder issues. Had nine sacks over his 25-game college career. Decent pass-rush. Bresee is one of those players who was consistently solid on film. He rarely impressed me. There’s value in a guy who you trust to just do his job.
I’m a little worried that injuries will rob him of his athleticism. His range and bend both appeared to diminish later in his collegiate career. Clemson took great care to limit his snaps.
There’s something else. It appeared that he was more interested in beat offensive linemen to the spot than he was in trying to overpower them. It makes me wonder if he didn’t want to stress his shoulder or if he had concerns about his power-level. He was pretty good at winning with speed and quickness, so I suppose it makes some sense strategically. What makes it odder is that he was better than most at holding his ground against double-teams.
The fact is, Bresee put up excellent athletic numbers. Even the poor combine bench press (22) has to be understood in the context of him putting up a 28 on his pro day. If he’s 100%, Bresee is a solid first-round prospect. I’m not in a position to give him a clean bill of health, so I wouldn’t consider touching him until day two.
Calijah Kancey: Look, I feel really silly comparing multiple prospects to Aaron Donald. That’s not fair to them, or Donald, but in this case I need to point out Kancey is very similar to Donald in terms of size and speed. This does not mean he will be able to play like Donald. For one thing, he hasn’t proven he can match Donald’s explosiveness or agility. For another, prospects with similar athletic profiles do not necessarily have the same NFL outcomes, particularly when one has proven to be an enormous outlier.
Let’s focus on what Kancey has shown us on film. He’s proven to be an effective pass-rusher, with 14.5 sacks over his past 23 games. There’s room for growth if he develops more versatility in his pass-rush technique. One cause for concern is his arm length. He’s a bit short-armed (two inches shorter than Donald), and might have trouble winning on initial contact in the NFL. I’m a bit concerned larger guards might be able to bully him. It will be a test of size vs. speed.
I’m curious if Kancey might project as a 3-4 DE. While he isn’t a true edge, I’d expect that between his quickness and lower center of gravity, he should be able to do a solid job of holding the edge. On passing downs, I’d trust him to work inside.
Arm-length concerns aside, Kancey should be a solid defensive lineman at the next level. I’d be looking to pick him up early on day two.
Mazi Smith: Excellent blend of size and strength. No pass-rush skills whatever (0.5 sacks in 28 starts). Only averaged three tackles a game, with a measly five tackles for a loss in those 28 starts.
What Smith can do for you is shove his blocker into the backfield. He’s much more disruptive than his tackle numbers suggest. I want to stress that this dude is legit strong.
There’s a fair amount of room for improvement here. For one thing, his technique against double teams needs work. Once he solves that, he’ll become the proverbial immovable object. Additionally, he has the athleticism to provide a decent pass-rush. There’s real potential growth in that regard.
Smith looks to be a potentially elite nose tackle. Even if the sacks aren’t flowing, the pressure is there. He’ll move the quarterback off of his spot. I liked Smith a lot more than I expected and would be fine taking him near the end of the first round, or early in the second. The dude can play.
Keeanu Benton: I want to like Benton. He’s a badger. It’s just… when judged against NFL standards, he’s merely okay.
He had 4.5 sacks in 2022. Not bad for a nose tackle! But, when you see the plays, the first has him stonewalled by the initial blocking. The quarterback sees nothing downfield and tries to run. Benton does a great job reacting, and grabs his leg, causing a half-yard loss. Well done.
The second is a coverage sack where his blocker has him covered, but then leaves him(?) to go help a teammate who was doing fine on his own. Seriously. Watch the two plays for yourself.
I don’t want to slag Benton. It’s great that he maintains both effort and awareness throughout the play. That was a constant on film and it should be considered a plus. I just want to make clear that you shouldn’t expect him to beat his man off of the snap.
The Badgers kept Benton under 40 snaps a game to keep him fresh. I expect his conditioning will improve in the pros. I see Benton as a serviceable nose tackle. He’ll do his best, and hopefully set his teammates up to make plays. That’s a round three value for me.
Zacch Pickens: Good athlete, if a tad undersized. Nice length allows him to win on first contact. 6.5 sacks over the past two seasons, but not as much pressure as I would have expected.
It was kind of weird. Pickens would have a great reaction time off of the snap, and then… not much? He’d get his arms on the offensive lineman, but wouldn’t have the power to blow him off the line. Or the explosiveness to knife past him.
He doesn’t have the size or power to hold his own vs. double teams, so he’ll need to become more evasive.
I view Pickens as a rotational player with limited upside. I’d be fine taking him in the back half of round three.
Colby Wooden: DE/DT hybrid. 15 sacks over the past three seasons at Auburn. At tackle, he’s seriously undersized. At end, he’s not a premium athlete. Mentally, I struggle to see him succeed as a tradition edge-rusher in the NFL. I like him as an interior pass-rusher, or as a defense end on early downs.
Wooden offers unusual versatility, with the tradeoff being he lacks a natural fit. A creative coaching staff should be able to take advantage of his strengths and mitigate his weaknesses.
Upon further consideration, Wooden does have a lot of the skills a 3-4 DE needs to succeed in the NFL. Not every defensive end is an edge-rusher. Wooden should be able to provide disruption inside, while holding the corner outside. If he’s a good fit for your defense, he fine late day two or early day three.
Siaki Ika: Ignore all the red numbers. Focus on the green. Ika is a large man with a low center of gravity. He’s not here to rush the passer (although he can shove the center into the backfield). Ika is an old-school space eater.
Ika is a good athlete for a man his size. He’s going to need to better handle double teams as his job is going to be to hold his ground against the run. It would be nice if his arms were a little longer to allow him to manipulate the offensive linemen.
Ika isn’t a premium prospect. He’s a guy you pick up if you need someone stout in the middle of your defensive line. There’s some upside (4.5 sacks in 2021). Mostly though, you should expect to find a quality nose tackle at an affordable price. Ika is fine selection late day two or early day three.
I’ve done my best in terms of estimating their most likely positions. Some of these guys are DT/DE hybrids. Others are pass-rush specialists.
Will Anderson: Dominant in 2021, with 17.5 sacks and 31 tackles for a loss in 15 games. Very good in 2022, with 10 sacks and 17 tackles for a loss in 13 games. I’d feel a lot better about Anderson as a prospect if those numbers were reversed.
It showed up on film too. Anderson was more explosive in 2021. In 2022 he still had the technique and power, but was clearly a diminished player.
A good 40-time and his overall production led Anderson to finish atop the SackSEER projections. Also, don’t sleep on those 33.875 inch arms, they’ve given him an edge. But even against the run, Anderson had an issue with missed tackles in 2022.
This showed up in other ways. He was pressing in 2022, getting flagged nine times in 13 games. This was after having only been flagged three times in the previous 28.
I’ll be blunt: Even the diminished version of Anderson is top-10 pick worthy. But the 2021 version is the premier non-QB in the draft.
I haven’t seen any discussion of nagging injuries. And to be clear, Anderson was a two-time SEC Defensive Player of the Year. He was still quite good in 2022. Just not the player he was in 2021.
Given the positional value and possibility that 2022 was what counts for an off year for Anderson, I’d be fine making him the first non-QB off the board.
Myles Murphy: I want to note that Murphy’s excellent numbers came on his pro day and not at the combine. Also, he weighed 271 at his pro day. Murphy has the size, length, and raw power that teams are looking for on the edge.
His level of production was decent, with 13.5 sacks and 25 tackles for a loss in his final 26 games. SackSEER has him as the third best edge prospect, but I should note that it only uses combine data. In Murphy’s case, I suspect his overall ranking would end up third in the class either way.
From what I could see, Murphy should be able to produce in the NFL. The traits are there. His technique is a tad limited, even for the college level. He simply hasn’t needed to develop a deep back of tricks. In a couple of years he’ll have a much more refined game.
It’s not his ability to beat the blocking that concerns me. It’s his ability to close. With better agility in the pocket, Murphy could have doubled his sack total. This might be tough to fix.
I see Murphy as a very good prospect who should come off the board in the 11-15 range. If he falls any further than that, I’d say he becomes quite a nice value pickup.
Tyree Wilson: A foot injury kept Wilson from running at the combine or his pro day, so we’re going with the film. One note: Wilson has incredible arm length, which is something teams covet.
Wilson had 14 sacks and 27.5 tackles for a loss in his final 23 games at Texas Tech. He looked great in 2022 before a foot injury sidelined him for the final three games of the season.
Wilson generally relies on length and power to beat the offensive linemen. For someone who relies mostly on one trait, he has a fair amount of variety in the types of moves he uses. Additionally, Wilson added a number of counters to his repertoire to create pressure when his initial rush was blocked. Altogether, I’m impressed with how much work Wilson put into his game.
I don’t have numbers, but I can say Wilson looked highly athletic on film. For a man his size, he moved fast. What he lacks is explosion. I don’t know if teams can teach him to be quicker off of the snap.
Wilson is a prospect that clearly has the size and power to dominate outside. Does he have the athleticism? His college production was good, not great. No combine or pro day numbers leave him as a bit of a mystery. Like Murphy, I feel comfortable with him in the 11-15 range, but he’ll be long gone by then. In this case, it’s possible teams know more than I do and his combine numbers would have been elite. Wilson may indeed deserve to be the second non-quarterback off the board.
Nolan Smith: What in the world?! 4.39 at 238 is obscene. This might give you the expectation that Smith was an undersized pass-rush specialist who struggled against the run. Oddly, it was the opposite. Smith was a plus run defender who only pulled in 6.5 sacks in his final 22 games.
I’m not sure how much to read into Smith’s low sack total. He was often asked to drop back into coverage. That limited his opportunities to rush the passer. However, this raises the question of why didn’t the coaching staff want him more focused on creating pressure off the edge?
Smith is recovering from a pectoral injury that ended his 2022 season. It is not expected to slow him down in the NFL.
Smith has the traits to be an elite edge. He as the speed to beat tackles and the bend to win if initially blocked. He needs to improve his variety and technique. That’s what coaches are paid to teach.
I’m a bit concerned that Smith doesn’t have the power to avoid wearing down over a full NFL season. Wear and tear happens on both sides of the ball. Speed aside, Smith is going to be asked to trade blows with offensive linemen north of 300. I wonder if the UGA coaching staff were on to something, saving Smith and using his versatility.
Having said that, Smith’s ceiling is either an elite pass-rush specialist or quality three-down defender. He’s not the first Georgia defender who was projected to put up better pass-rush numbers in the NFL than he did in college. SackSEER is cool on Smith. I’m more optimistic and would be fine taking him in the same range as Murphy and Wilson.
Lukas Van Ness: I can’t even imagine what it’s like to have 11-inch hands. Van Ness has the size, length, speed, and power teams are looking for. You needn’t worry about his grip strength.
Van Ness produced 13.5 sacks and 19.5 hits+hurries in his 27 games at Iowa. Van Ness was a DT/DE hybrid at Iowa. He also blocked two punts, which gave me higher expectations for his penetration skills than the overall film suggests.
It’s interesting to note that Van Ness didn’t start. He is still fairly inexperienced and has plenty of room for future development and growth. One area of improvement will be play recognition. Simply put, Van Ness will read and react much quicker once he’s had more reps to draw from.
I need to note I am considering Van Ness an edge as his interior pass-rush skills are not yet on the same level as his edge skills. In truth, right now Van Ness relies on his bull rush to generate pressure. The rest of his game is still raw.
I confess that I am not as high on Van Ness as the NFL appears to be. He has the traits, sure, but if you’re not starting for Iowa? If you are close to a one-trick pony, it better be an incredible trick. Van Ness will not be blowing NFL offensive tackles off the ball. So he’s going to need some work. I view him as a project who belongs late day one, early day two. He’s coming off the board well before then. Hopefully not to NY.
Tuli Tuipulotu: After a surprise 2022 breakout (13.5 sacks, 22 tackles for a loss), scouts were very curious to see how Tuli would perform at the combine. Alas, a right hamstring injury kept him from running.
The film showed a player with good power and excellent closing instincts (if not closing speed). What it didn’t show was the explosion or raw athleticism teams covet. Interestingly, it also showed a player playing at multiple different weights throughout the season.
Tuli has played both at tackle and at end. He’s not a natural NFL fit at either. On the edge he doesn’t have the length or speed to beat tackles off the edge. He does have the power to provide a decent bull rush, which is something to build on. Inside, he doesn’t have the right build to hold his ground. Versatility is nice, but Tuli has to be viewed as a project who will need to spend a fair amount of time in the weight room.
Tuli impressed me. His pass rush skills need work, but he has a cleverness you can’t teach. Dude has game. Tuli won’t turn 21 until after the draft. I see the 2022 Pac-10 Defensive Player of the Year is a solid early second-round value.
Keion White: Another DE/DT hybrid. White had a solid combine (the 40 was from his pro day). Had 7.5 sacks last season at Georgia Tech. White fits George Young’s “planet theory.” His mix of size, strength, and athleticism is rare.
White’s profile presents a few concerns. The first is that he’s still picking up the finer points of playing along the defensive line. His film showed a lot of mistakes that should get cleaned up with more coaching and reps. The bigger issue is that he turned 24 in January and his upside is potentially limited.
I’m torn here. On one hand, I was pretty much raised as a football fan on the “planet theory” of winning in the trenches. On the other hand, I don’t know how impressed I should be by an over-aged player who didn’t really dominate in college. My sense is that White is worth a mid-to-late second-round pick. I just worry that he looks the part better than he plays it.
Derick Hall: 16 sacks in his final 25 games at Auburn. Majestic combine. The film though… Hall has no discernible pass rush finesse. It’s kind of weird to see. There’s strength, athleticism, and aggression. Dude tried and succeeded. It’s just that he had a really shallow bag of tricks. It was jarring once I noticed it.
At Auburn, the coaching staff would regularly drop him into coverage. I think they figured he was a good athlete, so might as well? Frankly, it was not the best use of Hall’s talents and I’d expect him to do so less in the NFL.
On the plus side, this means he has a ton of room for growth. I’d consider Hall a bit of a project given how much he’ll need to learn in his first few years in the league. The upside potential is worth an investment outside of the top 45 or so.
Felix Anudike-Uzomah: 19.5 sacks in his final 27 games at Kansas State. Felix has a tremendous bag of pass-rush tricks. Really fun to watch.
What he doesn’t have is the raw power to be an effective run defender. And possibly not enough power for his pass-rush skills to translate to the NFL. Felix bulked up quite a bit in college and may be maxed out.
I see him as a potential pass-rush specialist who will need to develop the rest of his game. I like the fact that he appears to have great football instincts for how to win in the trenches. Sometimes you can be a good run defender by shutting the play down in the backfield.
This is a case where a payer not being able to run at the combine or his pro day adds an air of mystery to his profile. I can say he looked like a good athlete. Just perhaps a tad undersized by NFL standards. I’d be comfortable taking Felix outside of the top 40.
Will McDonald IV: In 2020 & 2021 McDonald had 22 sacks in 25 games (27.5 tackles for a loss). Last season he had five sacks and 7.5 tackles for a loss in 12 games. It was a pretty big regression. I’m going to cut him some slack as offenses keyed their protection around stopping him. He generally faced multiple blockers, which is the ultimate sign of respect.
McDonald is an elite athlete who is going to stress offensive tackles with his speed and bend around the edge. He didn’t have the size or play strength to hold the point against the run in college. It’s unlikely that he’ll develop that ability in the NFL. Most likely we’re looking at a pass-rush specialist.
McDonald has the athleticism to drop back in coverage. While that’s not why you’d draft him, it is nice to strand a blocker while covering a man.
McDonald is very good at the one thing defenses want most: Disruption. I’d expect him to come off the board in the 30’s, which is roughly ten spots ahead of where I’d take him.
BJ Ojulari: I was very disappointed when Ojulari didn’t run at the combine or his pro day. He generated quite a bit of pressure at LSU. Only 12.5 sacks in has past two seasons though (with 20 tackles for a loss).
Ojulari dealt with a petella knee injury in college. Between that and his hamstring injury that kept him from running the 40, I have some medical concerns. Ojulari is a bit undersized and the violence of the game has already dealt him some wear and tear.
I am skeptical Ojulari has the strength to ever be a premium run defender. I don’t have access to his medicals. I can say the player I saw in the latter half of 2022 was not a top 100 pick. The hope is that he’ll be able to find his pre-injury form in the NFL.
I wouldn’t be interested in gambling on Ojulari until round three. And frankly, if he’s still there, I’d wonder why no one else saw fit to take him.
Byron Young: 4.4 speed at 250. That’s something special. He turned 25 in March. That’s something…
Young had 12.5 sacks in two seasons at Tennessee. His lack of length was an issue, often losing in hand-to-hand combat with the offensive linemen. It’s a problem that will only be exacerbated in the NFL.
On the plus side, part of the reason for his lack of elite production is that his technique is still fairly raw. There’s a lot of room for improvement there, which means there’s upside potential. Young’s explosiveness off of the snap is much harder to teach.
I have been trained to be skeptical of pass-rush prospects who didn’t produce against players their own age. Most of them didn’t have Young’s mix of size and speed. I’d be willing to look at Young around the middle of day two.
Andre Carter II: I’m glad the rules were changed to give Carter a shot at an NFL career. The army can wait. As for Carter as prospect, his combine/pro day was mostly uninspiring. Don’t overlook the agility though.
Carter burst on the national scene with 15.5 sacks in 2021. In 2022, he got the star treatment, with double-teams being the norm. The tougher protection limited him to 3.5 sacks in ten games.
The film showed better overall athleticism than we saw at the combine. Carter might lack top-end speed. He can make up for it with quick strides off of the snap.
In terms of run defense Carter’s effort was top notch. He’ll need to be careful as he kept his center of gravity quite high. Offensive linemen will punish that in the NFL.
Army hasn’t quite prepared Carter to start in the NFL. He’s going to need a few years of seasoning before his game is polished enough to see regular snaps. The upside is you might be rewarded by a high quality three-down edge-rusher. I’d start getting tempted early on day three.
Isaiah Foskey: Pretty, pretty, pretty good combine. 20.5 sacks in his last 25 games at Notre Dame. Foskey blocked multiple punts in college. Gave exemplary effort, even when the play wasn’t on his side of the field. There’s a lot to like about Foskey’s profile.
The main issue for Foskey is that when he had the chance to play against elite competition, he got his butt kicked. He didn’t have the power to bull rush, or the length to win on first contact. I don’t think it would be fair to say he was a “scrubcrusher,” but it is an open question as to how well his skills will apply against a higher level of competition.
My sense is that Foskey has quite a bit of upside. I think a lot of his problems are fixable. Specifically, he needs better coordination between his lower body and his hands. That will help with his timing on initial contact. I like Foskey and I’d be interested in picking him up in the back end of round two.
Adetomiwa Adebawore: 9.5 sacks over the past two seasons. Tremendous athlete, either at defensive end, or at defensive tackle. In general, 280+ pound men do not run this fast. Adebawore is a legitimate superfreak who doesn’t have a natural position.
His athleticism showed up on film. So did his inexperience. Dude missed a ton of tackles by taking poor angles and not having proper body control. Some players have great football instincts. Adebawore doesn’t, at least not yet. Perhaps he’ll develop them with more reps.
Adebawore doesn’t have the natural flexibility you’d like at edge. This defaults him to trying to win with power. His upside here is that with a better developed set of moves and counters, you have a player who can overpower offensive tackles, or blow by them. However, his new team might elect to have Adebawore bulk up and work as a pash-rush defensive tackle.
Right now Adebawore is a bit raw. He’ll need some time to reach his full potential. When he does, his upside is an elite pass-rush defensive tackle with the versatility to kick outside when needed. I’m not worried about his height as it will allow him to get low when needed.
My love of “planet theory” bumps Adebawore into the mid-fifties for me. I’m fine taking him in the back half of round two.
Zach Harrison: Pretty good pro day considering Harrison was dealing with a left hamstring injury that prevented him from running at the combine. Harrison is another DE/DT hybrid. Harrison looked reasonably athletic on film, picking up 7.5 sacks in his final 25 games at Ohio State.
I also have to talk about his reach. 36+ inch arms allow him to make first contact. If he gets stopped, he focuses on the quarterback and looks to bat down passes. The issue with Harrison is that a lot of his movements are slow. He’s very patient in reading and reacting to the play. Frankly, it’s one of the reasons he didn’t have the kind of production Ohio State was looking for.
Harrison is tricky because he’s worthy of making an “athletic freaks” list. He can create pressure, with an elite ability to strip the ball. Between his versatility and potential upside, I’d be comfortable selection him around the middle of the third round.
Ultimately, he’s a tweener. He doesn’t have the athletic profile for an edge, and he’s undersized at tackle. The kicker is he had around 40 tackles in final 26 games at Michigan. Woof!
Look, if you get 7.5 sacks in your final season at a premier program, you’re probably cracking my top 100. Morris does not have a holistically impressive body of work. Nor does he have a great profile. That drops him into day three. I’d start considering how outside of the top 125.
Tavius Robinson: Robinson had seven sacks last season at Ole Miss. Solid combine. Nice job of forcing fumbles. It’s hard to tell how well he’ll be able to recreate that trick in the NFL. Fun to watch on film.
Robinson won with speed and quickness. He had difficulty winning with power, which means that for now, NFL offensive linemen will bully him. He’s going to need to get stronger to be a regular part of the rush rotation.
Robinson turned 24 in January. I’d start looking at him in the fifth round if I wanted to add some pass-rush depth.
Dylan Horton: Horton had 10.5 sacks last season at TCU (15 games). Decent combine. When I watched the film I saw the proverbial “high-motor” guy who gave his best effort every play. Horton came to college as a 200 pound safety and finished with four sacks in the National Semifinal against Michigan. (We will ignore the Championship Game per TCU’s request.)
Horton has a fair amount of scheme and positional versatility. The flip side of that is that he’s still developing his skills and will need some time to develop them to an NFL-level.
There’s a natural risk of bias towards liking players who give their best every play, even if they aren’t elite talents. It’s something to be careful of as the step up to the NFL is steep, and effort isn’t enough. My sense is that Horton should develop into a quality contributor and I’d be fine taking how outside of the top 100.
Nick Hampton: 18 sacks in his final 23 games at Appalachian State. Strong combine. Hampton projects as a pass-rush specialist. I have difficulty seeing him being able to bulk up and hold the edge.
As a specialist he’s going to need to develop a better set of skills. There’s only so much he could learn at Appalachian State. As such, he’s going to need some time to develop. The potential upside is that he becomes an elite weapon against the passing game.
Hampton isn’t going to fit every scheme. I’m comfortable taking him early day three if he’s a good fit for your system.
DeMarvion Overshown: Fast, but undersized. Overshown is a converted defensive back. Dude made some plays in the defensive backfield (four sacks, ten tackles for a loss last season at Texas). I’m not sure he’s a potential edge, or if it’s more accurate to consider him a linebacker with a blitz specialty.
Truth be told, he’s not a traditional linebacker either. He’s pretty awful in every facet against the run. He struggles with play recognition and can’t get off of blocks.
Overshown might have to develop into a safety/linebacker hybrid who can provide value in coverage while being a constant threat to blitz. I’m not really sure what to do with him and wouldn’t want to draft him without having a clear plan for his role. I’d consider him outside of the top 125.
Two problems though. First, he’ll turn 25 in October. Second, he’s an incredibly raw prospect. He has a power rush and… that’s about it. Doesn’t have much in the way of moves, let alone counter moves, or play recognition. Johnson is a project, and those are tough sells at his age.
I get that he has NFL-level traits. I don’t think I’d want to gamble on him until around the middle of day three.
Nick Herbig: I might be biased here. Herbig did a fine job of converting pressure into production, with 20 sacks in his final two seasons at Wisconsin. Doesn’t have the elite traits teams are looking for.
What he does have is particular set of skills. Skills that make him a nightmare in the backfield. The tricky part is getting there.
He doesn’t have the power to be an every down defensive end. The hope is that he can develop the skills to be a pass-rush specialist linebacker.
It’s always tricky asking someone to do something in the NFL that they haven’t proven they can do in college. I liked Herbig’s film (Go Badgers!) I admit it’s a bit of a reach, but I’d be comfortable rolling the dice on him outside of the top 100.
There are positional groups that create buzz and discussion about their respective merits. Quarterbacks get the most discussion. Wide receivers and edge rushers are on the next tier. After that, cornerbacks and offensive tackles. Running backs as a positional group do not see much discussion, even if the top running back in the class gets mocked to various teams in an effort to generate “clicks.”
As a rule off ball linebackers do not get much attention. The best they can hope for is a debate about who belongs at the top of the class. We have that here, with Drew Sanders, Trenton Simpson, and Jack Campbell each having their merits. Ultimately, I do not see them as similar players, so it should depend on what your team is looking for. Sanders best use may come as an edge rusher with some scheme versatility. Simpson has elite range and is a premier athlete. Campbell is the old school Mike with the most size, and five times as many career interceptions as Sanders & Simpson combined. Let’s break it down.
Drew Sanders: I’m going to tell you right now that Sanders looked much more athletic on film than he tested at his pro day. Sanders didn’t test at the combine.
Sanders began his collegiate career at Alabama where he saw limited action. He transferred to Arkansas before the 2022 season and had a monster year (9.5 sacks, 103 tackles, one interception), earning First Team All-SEC and unanimous All-American awards. He did as an off-ball linebacker who regularly rushed the passer. His pass rush skills are going to need refinement. It’s a nice bonus that he can play on or off the line of scrimmage, and even move inside if need be.
His pass coverage skills are a work in progress. Right now he can cover the flat. He can read and react in a zone position, but don’t expect him to do much tracking before the ball is in flight. Realistically, his best usage is attacking the line of scrimmage.
He’s still learning to diagnose his responsibilities in the running game. He’s flashed great athleticism, shooting into the backfield and shutting plays down. However, he’s also misread the play and run himself out of position. The dude will need plenty of reps before he can be trusted in space.
Right now I see Sanders as a pass-rusher with upside. I need to tell you that his good plays looked gooooood. You could see why he was considered an elite athletic prospect coming out of high school. It’s unclear if his coaches will want him to bulk up and become more of a traditional Mike linebacker, or if his future is as a pass-rush OLB. I see a late first-round value.
Trenton Simpson: Elite athlete. Simpson played outside in 2020 and 2021, moving inside in 2022. Accumulated 165 tackles and 13 sacks in his 33 game collegiate career. Simpson is a highly versatile player who can play in coverage or rush the passer.
Simpson has elite range. That can pay off in coverage, against the run, or even as a spy tracking an opposing quarterback. One thing I’ll note is that Simpson looked better playing outside than inside. He’s still learning how to read plays, and often found himself out of position or swallowed up by the blockers. He was much better when he had a clear line of sight and could fly to the spot.
One concern is that while Simpson has many skills, he hasn’t mastered any of them. He has the talent to work as a LB/S hybrid, but will need plenty of reps to reach his potential. Alternatively, he might be able to work as a Mike linebacker who attacks the line of scrimmage. In that case, he’d likely need to bulk up. Whatever the case may be, it will take time for his mental speed to catch up to his physical speed.
Simpson is a player who gives his defensive coach a number of options. That versatility is much appreciated when you’re trying to get your best 11 players on the field. I love his athleticism. I’m just a bit unsure of his role. Early second-round value.
Jack Campbell: The best pure inside linebacker in the draft. Only three sacks in his collegiate career. Averaged around 10 tackles per game over his final two seasons. Phenomenal combine. Campbell was the 2022 Butkus award winner (best linebacker) and the 2022 Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year.
Campbell impressed me with his zone coverage skills. He had a good understanding of his role and reacted quickly. His man coverage skills were not on the same level. His combine suggests that he might be able to develop those skills with more reps, particularly against larger tight ends.
Campbell was truly elite against the run. Even if he didn’t make the tackle, he’d shut down the lane and force the running back to look elsewhere. The dude played fast.
The issues with Campbell are two-fold. First, he’s never going to have the range of the LB/S hybrids. The second is that he’s a medical red-flag due to UCL concerns.
Positional value might be another concern, but that’s not specific to Campbell. He’s the best inside linebacker in the class. I’d be comfortable taking him early in the second round.
Henry To’oTo’o: A modern linebacker, trading size for speed. Produced 205 tackles and 6.5 sacks in 28 games for the Crimson Tide. Henry can’t be expected to take on offensive linemen and still make a play. In fact, running backs were generally able to block him effectively. Henry was at his best working in space.
Henry did a fine job of diagnosing running plays, reacting quickly and getting to the spot. His zone pass coverage skills aren’t quite on the same level. He was better in man coverage where his natural athleticism helped cover up some of his mistakes.
Henry doesn’t have the traditional level of power teams are looking for inside. He played outside at Tennessee before transferring to Alabama. He might have to do so in the NFL. That will mitigate some of his issues navigating traffic, while still allowing him to show off his range.
I think Henry is a bit of a niche prospect. He has to naturally fit what your defense is asking of him. I don’t see him as a LB/S hybrid, nor as a true inside linebacker. Having said that, he brings plenty of athleticism with a wide range of experience. Without a natural fit, I’d take him around the middle of third round.
Daiyan Henley: This is what a true LB/S hybrid looks like. Henley has experience at both cornerback and safety. Made 102 tackles in 12 games at Nevada in 2021 (four interceptions). Transferred to Washington State. Made 106 tackles in 12 games, with four sacks and one interception for the Cougars.
Henley is still learning the position. His talent is obvious on film. He misses far fewer tackles than you’d expect of a man his size. He’ll be at his best working in space, and perhaps as a blitzer if he develops better pass-rush skills.
It’s not realistic to expect Henley to try and work through traffic and beat NFL-level blocking. He’s also going to need some time to learn how to handle the variety of routes he’ll have to defend. Henley’s an elite athlete with upside, not a finished product. If he’s a good fit for what your defense wants, I’d look to take him around the middle of day two.
Noah Sewell: Decent size, but only mediocre athleticism. Good stopping power. Sewell is a bit of an old school Mike. The problem is those are becoming an endangered species. Sewell only had 56 tackles in 12 games last season. He doesn’t have elite range, nor does he play fast.
Having said all of that, Sewell does have some strengths. He does a fine job of blitzing, particularly off of the edge. He can hold his ground vs. blocking. He had four sacks and 114 tackles in 14 games in 2021.
Sewell doesn’t have the range teams look for in coverage. He’ll have to make his living in the box, attacking the line of scrimmage. It’s possible that he played through nagging injuries in 2022 as he didn’t look to have NFL-level athleticism. Sewell is a round-four prospect for me as an early-downs linebacker.
Ivan Pace Jr.: Monster season at Cincinnati (10 sacks, 20+ tackles for loss, a shitload of pressures, 136 tackles). I loved his film. Absolutely loved it. He was fantastic attacking the line of scrimmage, working through traffic. He has the skills to slide through the cracks, or get low and overpower men far larger than himself.
There’s nothing to be done about his size. Can he step up and face NFL competition? I want to believe. I know he has certain limitations. He’s not going to excel in coverage. His range is only decent. I don’t care. Pace is a problem. He reacts quickly and makes plays. The production wasn’t a fluke.
Pace isn’t expected to come off the board until day three. I gave him a round three grade and loved what I saw from him. I’d be happy if he came to NY in round four.
Brian Branch: This is not an exciting athletic profile. One of the problems I’ve heard mentioned about drafting Alabama defensive backs is that they’re usually already close to maxed out. Good coaching and athletic training have often helped their players get close to their full potential. That brings us to Mr. Branch.
Branch generally lined up in the slot last season, with excellent results (two interceptions, -14.7 EPA on 40 targets, -0.37 EPA-per-target). He’s completely polished with elite football intelligence. Branch’s play speed is obvious on film. He can start immediately, either in the slot, or at free safety.
I will say I like his run support skills much more when he’s in the box instead of set deep. Branch excelled attacking the line of scrimmage, producing three sacks and 14 tackles for a loss last season.
Branch is a proven special teams contributor, om both kick and punt coverage. His punt return skills are objectively hilarious. He returned two punts for Alabama last season. One was a 68-yard touchdown vs. ULM. The other was a muff against Vanderbilt.
Some prospects offer tantalizing upside. Branch is on the opposite end of that spectrum. He’s a trustworthy option who can fill a hole on your roster from week one on. I see him as worthy of a selection from the middle of the first round onward.
Jordan Battle: Solid blend of size and speed. Has played centerfield, in the box, and as a slot defensive back. The film shows he a bit more closing burst than his combine numbers would suggest.
Battle has the Alabama issue where he’s already close to a finished product. Four interceptions over the past two seasons. Does a phenomenal job of timing his arrival to make a play without arriving too early. There’s a tradeoff here though. Battle avoids flags, but isn’t making as many plays on the ball as he otherwise might.
Battle did a decent job in the running game. Here’s one area where he isn’t polished as his tackling technique could use some improvement. Part of it is he doesn’t quite have the level of power you might expect from looking at him.
Battle doesn’t play quite as fast as has teammate Branch. He lacks the premier athleticism that teams would like in the defensive backfield. Teams value shutdown cornerbacks much more than they value quality safeties. I’d probably start looking into him around the middle of day two.
Johnson’s best trait might be his versatility. He has the skills to cover the slot, but can be deep, or attack the line of scrimmage. I wouldn’t think of him as a nickelback with elite power against the run. He only had one interception in his collegiate career. He might get exposed if forced to regularly match up with NFL slot receivers.
As a box safety Johnson enjoys delivering big hits. That’s a trait teams would like to keep, while cleaning up his tackling technique.
Johnson is still learning how to play safety. I should probably cut him a bit of slack as there’s some upside here. I’d definitely take Battle over Johnson. Once Battle is gone, I’d consider Johnson early in the third round.
Jammie Robinson: Undersized. Sub-30 inch arms will cause some teams to remove Robinson from their boards. Has some linebacker qualities, with 183 tackles in his last 25 games. Five interceptions over that span.
It’s an open question whether Robinson’s skills will translate to the NFL. He lacks elite quickness and top end speed. He doesn’t have the length or power teams are looking for. What he has is college production.
I struggle to find a natural position for Robinson. He can cover tight ends, but will lose 50-50 balls. Quicker receivers will generate separation.
Robinson will provide value on special teams. His versatility will give his defensive coordinator some flexibility. Perhaps he’ll end up as a nickel safety who lines up in the box. My sense is that his limitations should knock him into early day three.
Ji’Ayir Brown: Ugh. Brown does not have the range teams want. He compensated that by making very quick decisions. There’s some downside to that as sometimes he ran himself out of position. The upside is 10 interceptions in 26 games.
The reality is that Brown’s lack of range showed up on the statsheet. He averaged a little more than five and a half tackles per game over the last two seasons. The last line of defense he is not.
Brown has good centerfield skills. He’s smart and reads plays well. I can’t fault his effort. He’s just not fast enough to be a premium player. His weaknesses will become more pronounced against more athletic competition.
Brown will need to go a team that offers him some schematic protection. The less area he’s responsible for, the better. His instincts and aggressiveness are legit. I like Brown in the back half of round three.
JL Skinner: A pectoral injury kept him from running at the combine or on his pro day. Prototype size. A converted wide receiver, Skinner has great hands with six interceptions over the past two seasons. It’s a shame we didn’t get to see him run as Skinner had elite range on film.
I prefer Skinner outside of the box where he won’t get caught up on traffic. Having said that, he wasn’t bad in the running game. He was rarely asked to blitz, and I don’t see that being his role in the NFL.
Skinner has shown some ability to work in the slot. He’ll need to improve his footwork to prevent shiftier receivers from creating separation. He did a good job of covering tight ends and will likely be asked to do that in the pros.
Skinner impressed me with his closing speed. I’d like to see him either as a free safety or work in zone coverage on one side of the field. Skinner is a player I’m probably overvaluing due to his size. I accept that. I’d be fine with taking either him or Battle around the middle of day two.
(Editor’s note: Skinner has a history of targeting calls. He’ll have to clean that up.)
Sydney Brown: If you want a safety with some speed, Brown has you covered. He had six interceptions last season, two for touchdowns. Brown played mostly in the slot or as a box safety, but has played deep.
Flies around the field when attacking the ballcarrier. Goes for big hits more than he should, which leads to some missed tackles. It also leads to some big hits though, which is nice. His technique will likely improve in the NFL. To be frank, it better, as he can’t get away with as many missed tackles as he had in college.
My sense is Brown has a fair amount of upside. He’s capable of developing into a quality ballhawk. I’d be comfortable taking him in the third round.
(Editor’s note: Brown has been healthy the past few seasons. Prior to that he’s had issues with concussions. It’s something teams will keep in mind when evaluating him.)
Smith also has six interceptions in his past 27 games, as well as a blocked kick he returned for a touchdown. Smith is a very good football player with certain physical limitations.
Smith has played in a variety of roles at Georgia. He’s a converted cornerback. The tricky part will be finding a role for him in the NFL where he doesn’t get exposed. I genuinely have no idea what his future role is. Perhaps he’ll work out of the slot. I wouldn’t take him until early day three.
Jay Ward: Long’ish, but thin. Ward is another one of the nickelback/safety hybrids. My guess is that it’s difficult for him to add more weight to his frame, or else he would have done so already.
Ward had three interceptions in nine games in 2020. He had three more in his final 24 games at LSU. Ward had a serious issue with flags, both DPI and personal fouls.
I don’t think Ward has the power to play safety in the NFL. That means he’ll need to improve his coverage skills (and play a cleaner brand of ball). Ward’s upside is as a nickelback, with some risk he can’t make it. Ward’s a mid-day three value to me.
I think if Joseph is going to stick in the NFL, he’ll have to do so as a deep safety. He’ll need to recapture the ballhawk skills that made him a consensus All-American in 2020.
He lacks stopping power against the run. His 4.69 40 on his pro day concerns me since it showed the combine wasn’t a fluke.
I am not sure if injuries have left Joseph a shell of the player he used to be. I can say the current version deserves no better than a mid-to-late day three selection.
This is an exceedingly deep cornerback class. The top end talent is there too. Look for teams to bolster their secondary throughout the first two days of the draft.
Christian Gonzalez: Sub-4.4 speed at over six feet is exactly what teams are looking for. Looked smooth on film. Has the power to jam receivers, with the recovery speed needed if things go wrong. Gonzalez has shown he can work outside or in the slot. I expect he’ll be used outside in the NFL.
Gonzalez pulled in four interceptions last season. He’s learned how to play clean, with only three DPI flags in his last 24 games. He’s solid in run support. Don’t look for him to make a big hit. Gonzalez prefers wrap his man up form tackling.
Gonzalez is also a special teams ace, with experience blocking kicks, as well as jamming on punt returns. If I was looking for a reason that Gonzalez would fail, it’s a lack of anticipation in man coverage. In college he played fairly conservatively, generally waiting for the receiver to make his move and trust that his athleticism would allow him to react in time. In the NFL he’ll need to improve in this area lest he get repeatedly burned on timing routes.
I want to note that his zone coverage skills were elite. He did a great job of moving his feet while maintaining focus on the receivers around his zone and the quarterback. I expect that he’s note the cornerback opposing quarterbacks are going to want to challenge. Over the past two seasons Gonzalez produced -14.7 EPA on 80 targets (-0.18 EPA-per-target).
I see Gonzalez as a future elite #1CB. I don’t expect him to go in the top five, so whomever gets him will be getting a nice value pickup at a premium position. (Editor’s note: Gonzalez won’t turn 21 until June. He’s managed to become an elite player at a very young age.)
Devon Witherspoon: A hamstring injury prevented Witherspoon from running at the combine. He ran the 40 on his pro day. For the most part, the film tells us what we need to know about Witherspoon.
The first thing that jumps out from watching Witherspoon is his aggressiveness. He’s not passively covering his man. He’s constantly looking to get an edge and make a play. Grabbed three interceptions last year despite opposing quarterbacks mostly trying to avoid challenging him. He’s not afraid of getting physical with larger receivers.
In the NFL he’ll need to careful about drawing holding flags as he does have a tendency to grab when he feels the receiver creating some separation. Also, his closing speed was good, not great. True speedsters will challenge him.
Witherspoon did a fine job in zone. He’s better in man though, as that plays to his natural strengths. Not counting the plays where he was penalized, Witherspoon produced -46.5 EPA on 56 targets (-0.83 EPA-per-target). Great stuff.
Witherspoon will never make it easy on you to beat him. That means he’ll get plenty of pass breakups, at the risk of giving up a big play. I see some boom-bust to his game. And then there’s the issue of his size. In the running game he often felt the need to go low, which led to some missed tackles and big gains. I don’t fault the effort, just the technique (and the power limitations). He weighed 185 at his pro day. His future employer will want him to keep that weight on.
There’s some question as to whether or not Witherspoon will be able to stay outside, or if the slot is his future home. Elite slot defenders become more important every year. My best guess is he’ll end up playing in both areas and it will be matchup dependent. I don’t want to overthink this one. Witherspoon can play. My clear #2CB and a top-ten value.
Joey Porter Jr.: Fast, long, and tall. His press jamming skills are going to give wide receivers nightmares. Has the size and strength to handle “mismatch” tight ends. Impressive closing speed showed up on film.
There are three issues that Porter will have to address to succeed in the pros. In order of importance:
1. Flags. Porter has learned how to play physical and prevent completions. He hasn’t learned how to do so without committing DPI, or it’s little brother, holding. With the increased level of competition, he’s going to have to learn how to keep his hands to himself after the five-yard cutoff.
2. Transitions. Porter is a bit slow to shift his weight, which gives receivers a slight bit of separation. This is something teams will need to work on. Better footwork will likely help with his flag issue as well.
3. Hands. One interception in 31 starts is bad enough. When you take his aggressive play style into account, it’s mind-boggling. He had opportunities, but his hands let him down. Porter will need to start dating a JUGS Machine.
Having said all of that, I don’t want to lose sight of the fact that where talking about a prospect that does not give up many receptions. He did a fine job in run support. He’s shown the ability blanket receivers and make the quarterback look elsewhere. Last season he produced -3.2 EPA on a measly 29 targets (-0.11 EPA-per-target). Remember that this does not include penalties.
Porter will need some scheme protection. That’s fine. Players with his tools are rare. If he’s a fit for your system, he’s a solid top-15 value.
Deonte Banks: NFL-level athlete. Banks trusts both his physicality and his speed. He can jam receivers, or float and close. Best of luck trying to beat him deep. He’ll use the sideline and deny the quarterback a clear angle.
In zone coverage Banks did a nice job of maintaining proper positioning while keeping his eyes on the quarterback. He might be a tad aggressive, which is something opposing quarterbacks will try to use against him.
Banks was solid in run support. I was impressed with his reaction speed.
The issue with Banks is his footwork. When facing wide receivers he’s late to get out of his back-pedal. When he has his back to the quarterback he gets antsy. That leads to him occasionally grabbing the receiver and getting flagged. These are correctable flaws in his technique. Banks produced -15.1 EPA on 53 targets (-0.28 EPA-per-target, minus the flags of course.)
There’s too much upside here to ignore. Banks is a late first-round value with elite #1CB potential.
Kelee Ringo: Elite size and speed. Four interceptions on 123 targets over the past two seasons (-22.9 EPA, -0.19 EPA-per-target.) That does not take into account his nine flags last season.
I’m wondering if the difference between college and NFL DPI is such that college coaches teach their cornerbacks to risk the flag in order to avoid giving up big plays? It’s a tradeoff. Obviously, they don’t like giving up 15 yards and an automatic first down, but the risk-reward is quite different between college and the pros.
Regardless, it’s an issue I’m confident Ringo can fix. Ringo has the speed and flexibility to be an elite cover-corner in the NFL. He’ll need to improve his route recognition. It was a notable problem and the one area where he looked slow on film. Opponents took advantage of this, breaking open with quick cuts that generated more separation than they deserved. More reps will help here.
Ringo was a decent tackler in the running game. He was surprisingly passive, although it’s possible he was instructed to keep the ball-carrier in front of him so that the rest of the defense could assist. He has the size and power to be more aggressive here.
Ringo is surprisingly raw for someone who was a key contributor for Georgia the last two seasons. Having said that, he’ll turn 21 in June and has enormous upside. He’ll require some time to develop and take his lumps early. A first-round talent worthy of a selection late in the round.
Cam Smith: Checks off the height and speed boxes. Six interceptions in his last 30 games. Has shown he can play both inside and outside. But please note: I said height and speed. I did not say “size and speed.”
Smith does not carry a lot of extra weight on his frame, which limits his power. I’m not sure if that’s why he was so aggressive before the ball arrived, drawing 10 flags last season. Admittedly, part of the issue is that he’s a ballhawk and he runs the risk of making contact too early.
That doesn’t excuse all of the flags. His press coverage skills are quite literally hit and miss. When he falls behind, he’s prone to grabbing the receiver. I expect he’ll start his NFL career playing mostly off-man and in zone.
Smith gives a decent effort in the running game. His tackling skills are limited by his lack of mass.
I like that Smith plays fast and has confidence in his reads. His flaws are mostly correctable. If he fits your scheme, I’m comfortable taking Smith early in day two.
Emmanuel Forbes: My word. Forbes is faster and thinner than Cam Smith. Forbes had 14 interceptions in his three-year college career. That’s incredible. He produced -28.9 EPA in his 43 targets last season (-0.67 EPA-per-target.) Perhaps most impressively, he made 150 tackles in his college career. At 166 pounds. Wowsers.
It gets better. He returned six of his interceptions for touchdowns. He breaks up a ton of passes. His read and recognition skills are elite. Forbes runs fast, thinks fast, and plays fast.
Forbes projects best as a zone corner where his ability to jump routes will force quarterbacks to make tough throws. He can also play off-man and read and react.
His run support skills have obvious limitations. Having said that, the effort was this, as was the backside pursuit. He’s better in this regard than you might expect.
NFL quarterbacks will try to take advantages of his aggressiveness and bait him with double moves. He’ll learn. I won’t lie: I loved his film. I think Forbes can eventually be a #1CB in the NFL. I acknowledge it’s a slight reach, but I’d be comfortable taking Forbes late in the first-round. Great value if he falls to day two.
Clark Phillips III: Coming off of a monster year at Utah (six interceptions, -35.3 EPA on 43 targets, -0.75 EPA-per-target.) Nine career interceptions, four returned for touchdowns. Film junkie who plays fast. The issue with Phillips isn’t his college production. It’s his physical limitations. He’s undersized, with a comparatively slow 40-time.
Like Emmanuel Forbes, Phillips is a ballhawk. He gets more than his fair share of tipped balls. Unlike Forbes, he does not have elite closing speed. In short, he needs to commit earlier to get the same results. He got away with that in college due to his high hit rate on reading plays. That will be a tougher trick to pull off in the pros.
Phillips was not a great tackler in run support, preferring to go for the big hit instead of wrapping up. Overall his tackling was an issue and it will be tough to solve.
Phillips has played both inside and outside in college. I see a roll for him as a CB3 in a base-nickel defense. That’s a good fit for his skill-set and a job I think he’ll eventually be able to do quite well. Mid day two value.
Julius Brents: The size and length that the NFL desires. Coming off of a solid season at Kansas State (four interceptions, -13.2 EPA on 41 targets, -0.32 EPA-per-target.)
Brents has played both man and zone, showing off strengths and weaknesses in each. In man, he can take advantage of his reach and knock receivers off of their routes in press coverage. However, his lack of elite speed can bite him downfield. Also, he didn’t do a great job of adjusting to balls in flight. Interceptions aside, he could have had more pass breakups if he’d been more aware of the where the ball was.
In zone coverage his fluid movements give him great positioning. The agility he showed off at the combine was visible on film. However, he had a bad habit of being too attuned to the quarterback and not aware enough of the receivers in his range.
Both aggressive and effective in run support. If there’s a weakness here it’s his preference for making the big hit instead of using proper form technique.
Right now I’d trust Brents more in zone coverage than in man-to-man. Once he learns to be more consistent in his jamming skills, he projects to be a solid #2CB. Early third-round value.
Tyrique Stevenson: Close to prototype size and speed. Stevenson played two years at Georgia, mostly at safety. He transferred to Miami to play cornerback and for his final two years of college he did a fine job of it (3 interceptions, 80 targets, -28.8 EPA, -0.36 EPA-per-target.) No issues with flags either, only picking up one in two seasons.
Stevenson projects as a press-man cornerback. He has the power to jam receivers and deny them a free release. He had college-level closing speed. I’m a bit concerned that he’ll get a rude awakening when he tries to make up ground against NFL receivers.
His run support skills should be much better than they are. He has the strength to make an impact here. However, he didn’t seem particularly engaged unless it was clear that he was the next line of defense. Even then, his technique was poor. There are smaller players who gave much better effort in this regard.
There’s one other issue. Stevenson sometimes looked completely lost in zone coverage. I’m not sure if he was just taking plays off, or didn’t grok his responsibilities. It’s something that he’ll need to clean up in the pros.
I’m torn on Stevenson. He put up good results at Miami. The zone issues might be fixable. Same with his run support. What I can’t get past is the sense that he’ll get exposed at the next level. His college stats and combine results say he’s a mid day two pick. I’m not buying it. I wouldn’t touch him until day three.
Eli Ricks: Here’s the big question: How does a guy this slow, have five career interceptions (two returned for touchdowns) in 58 targets, -19.9 career EPA (-0.34 EPA-per-target)?
It gets weirder. Ricks had 44 tackles in his college career, averaging fewer than two per game. And yet, he was an elite 5-star recruit coming out of high school.
The answer, I think, is injuries. In his freshman year Ricks had four interceptions and scored the two aforementioned touchdowns. He had shoulder injuries in high school and they plagued him in college. Additionally, he’s had back issues.
The film from 2022 at Alabama shows a player not ready for the NFL. The film from his freshman year at LSU shows a potential #1CB. Without access to his medicals, I’m putting Ricks on my “Do not draft” list. There may be potential here, but I can’t see it being worth the bust risk.
Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson:
“Can I sell you a cornerback? Won the Thorpe Award.”
“I said he’s got speed. Stop asking for everything. You want him or not?”
Hodges-Tomlinson has speed. He also has documented production at TCU. He was dominant last season (three interceptions, -47.2 EPA on 69 targets, -0.68 EPA-per-target). It wasn’t a fluke either as he produced -30.3 career EPA at TCU before 2022.
There’s a problem though. I’m not referring to the obvious issue of his size, although it’s related. It’s that to produce these results Hodges-Tomlinson needs to play a physical brand of off-ball coverage. The off-ball part is fine. The penalties he commits are not (14 in 2022). That changes the calculus quite a bit.
Hodges-Tomlinson won the Thorpe Award for the best defensive back in college football last season. He’ll need to significantly refine his coverage to play in the NFL. I will say that’s he’s better than you might think against the run. Being willing to take on contact helps.
My sense is that Hodges-Tomlinson will manage to win a job at nickel and will, in a few years, be consistent contributor. That makes him worth of a late third or early fourth round selection.
Garrett Williams: This one is going to hurt. I like Williams (Go Orange!), but knee issues plagued him in college and prevented him from running at the combine.
Back in 2020 he got on the national radar with a pick six against Trevor Lawrence. He had two interceptions in seven games in 2022. But… he missed the rest of the season due to thigh and knee ACL issues.
He’s also never produced season with a negative EPA. Last season was his best with 1.9 EPA on 22 targets, 0.09 EPA-per-target. Previously in his college career he’d allowed 0.25 EPA-per-target on 103 targets. Not great.
Credit where credit is due, Williams has has avoided flags and provided value as a gunner on special teams. He’s been active in run support, averaging more than five tackles per game.
I just don’t know how much I can trust Williams without having clearance from a medical staff. Williams makes my “do not draft” list. 😦
Kyu Blu Kelly: I feel like Kelly’s draft profile is based on two things.
1. His 2021 season (two interceptions, 3.9 EPA on 59 targets, 0.07 EPA-per-target)
Opponents went from challenging him five times a game in 2021 to three times a game in 2022. Their efficiency improved (7.8 EPA on 31 targets, 0.25 EPA-per-target).
I guess my biggest problem with Kelly is that he looked slow on film. He was like the guy in an action movie you knew would get there a second too late. Dude does not have a turbo boost. There was also an issue with tackling in run support. It wasn’t his favorite part of the game.
Kelly looks like a backup who you hope can provide quality depth. That’s fifth round or later for me.
The film suggests he might have to return to his old position. He was flagged five times on only 18 targets last season. Woof! His technique is far from fundamentally sound.
I’d excuse that if Jones played like a box safety, but he only averaged three tackles a game throughout his college career. He didn’t have the range or the proper tackling technique to be a difference-maker against the run.
It’s not all bad for Jones. He had a pair of interceptions in 2021. He has NFL-level size and length. It’s just that poor footwork and only moderate athleticism put him at a disadvantage. I view him as depth at cornerback with some potential upside as a safety. Fifth-round value.
DJ Turner II: 4.26. That’s not the day before the draft. It’s Turner’s 40 time. Just to be clear, that was at the combine, not at his pro day with everything tilted in his favor. It shows on film and in his results:
2021-22: Three interceptions, -26.7 EPA on 118 targets (-0.23 EPA-per-target)
Turner has experience with both man and zone coverage. His size suggests he’ll work out of the slot in the NFL. However, since he has the speed to stick with the true elite deep threats, he may work outside per the matchups.
If there’s a concern for Turner it’s that his size limits his ability to win 50-50 balls. He’s also had a small issue with DPI flags. He’s not great in run support. I can live with that. Between the interceptions and the passes defensed, Turner is an elite prospect that will be on everyone’s radar.
Turner is coming off the board day two. He might even come off the board round two. Speed and athleticism like this is hard to find. Even if he’s just an elite nickelback, that’s quite valuable. Size matters, but speed kills. It’s so hard not to be seduced by 4.26… I’d be interested in Turneroutside of the top 50. Sigh.
Riley Moss: 11 interceptions on 188 targets during his career at Iowa. Very strong combine. Coming off of off an excellent season (one interception, -19.2 EPA on 58 targets, -0.33 EPA-per-target).
Moss doesn’t quite have the burst that his combine suggests. He might be best in off-man or zone where he can use his read and react skills. He’s also an excellent ballhawk (but not a gambler).
There’s been some talk about moving him to free safety. At Iowa his run support was merely okay. He didn’t take great angles and his stopping power is no better than mediocre by safety standards.
Whether as a zone specialist or as a free safety, my best guess is that Moss will mostly play facing the line of scrimmage, and not with his back turned in man-to-man coverage. He was the 2021 Big Ten defensive back of the year. My sense is that Moss is being underrated for… reasons. I think he’s a third-round value and would love him late in the third or early in the fourth round.
Bryce Young: Checks off almost every box. He was highly productive, throwing for over 8,000 yards in his final 27 games. He averaged over 8.8 yards-per-attempt. He finished his college career throwing for 80 touchdowns against only 12 interceptions. In 2021 he became the first Alabama quarterback to win the Heisman Trophy:
He only took 18 sacks in 2022. Young missed one game with an injured shoulder.
Young’s touch on short passes is notably great. He can put the ball where the receiver needs it to avoid losing momentum. He’s quite accurate on intermediate passes as well. Young lacks the arm strength to throw a great deep ball. His arm strength might also present an issue on sideline routes.
In college, he did a fine job of putting the ball where only his receiver could catch it. With smaller windows in the NFL, a lot of those passes may end up forcing his receiver out of bounds. It’s tricky when you have to rely on touch to on longer passes, particularly near the sideline.
Young can beat pressure with a quick release or with his legs. He can look to pass, taking advantage of defensive breakdowns, or just tuck it and run. His playmaking skill is rare in this respect.
Young has played in an NFL-style offense and knows how to make quick reads and get the ball out of his hands.
Arm strength aside, Young makes a lot of sense as the #1 pick. But there’s a problem. Young is an extreme size outlier. He had to bulk up for the combine to get to 204. His playing weight is closer to 190.
There were some comparisons to Kyler Murray, but Murray is clearly thicker than Young. Murray also has a rocket arm, and was selected 9th overall by the Oakland A’s. Young is not on the same athletic tier as Murray.
Young’s height and weight present a few different challenges. The most pressing issue is durability. Large fast men will be hunting him on every drop-back. The differential in mass puts Young in some jeopardy. Murray has had difficulty staying healthy, missing nine games the past two seasons.
There’s also the issue of wearing down. Young has been quite good at avoiding big hits, but that was against college competition, behind the Alabama offensive line. Wherever he winds up, he’s going to have to adjust to no longer having a talent advantage on a weekly basis. He’s going to take more hits in the NFL. He’ll also have difficulty breaking away once defenders get their hands on him.
In terms of finding throwing lanes, Young is adept at throwing from different angles and creating lanes with his feet. It’s an additional challenge, but one he is used to.
Ultimately I am a Young skeptic. Between his arm strength, height, and lack of bulk, I see Young struggling to withstand the rigors of an NFL season.
The counterargument might not be Murray, but Russell Wilson. Wilson’s build is similar to Murray, and slightly thicker than Young. However, Wilson also had a significantly stronger arm than Young coming out of college. Wilson and Murray were considered elite athletes. Young is viewed as a very good athlete who has mastered his craft.
We have had a 5’10 quarterback who has go first overall. We have had a 5’10 quarterback who won the Super Bowl. Young’s height is not disqualifying. But it does present challenges. His slim frame causes concern. His arm strength will force him to play on hard mode. I like Young. I’ll be rooting for him. But I wouldn’t take him first overall. Not when CJ Stroud is an option. QB2.
CJ Stroud: There’s a lot that goes into being a successful NFL quarterback. You can have prototype size, strength, and accuracy, and still fail if you’re unable to read defenses and make quick decisions. College production, even against high-level competition does not guaranty success.
The reason I am bringing this up is to whine about the fact that I have a track record of overrating Ohio State quarterbacks. In recent history this applies to Justin Fields and the late Dwayne Haskins. Now, in the case of Fields one might argue that he hasn’t been given a fair shot to succeed in the NFL. However, he still fell in the draft relative to where I would have selected him. That may be the case for CJ Stroud as well.
He only took 26 sacks in those 25 games. For the most part Stroud is a pocket passer who doesn’t threaten you with his legs. One of the main knocks on Stroud is his performance under pressure. He is reluctant to throw to targets that aren’t clearly open. However, Stroud’s overall results show he’s been effective at avoiding getting pressured to begin with.
Stroud has the arm strength, accuracy, and touch the NFL is looking for. He can comfortably throw short, medium, or long, and adjust his velocity to whatever best suits the receiver and the play design.
In the biggest game of his collegiate career, Stroud shined, going 23-34 for 348 yards and four touchdowns against Georgia. How showed off more mobility than the Bulldogs expected. When he needed to perform late in the clutch, he led a 44-yard drive in 35 seconds. At that point, his coach choked, and their kicker followed suit.
Like Young, Stroud’s team had a talent advantage on a weekly basis. That may have led Stroud to become too conservative, waiting for his receivers to break open. In the NFL, he’ll need to improve his anticipation.
One of the main arguments against Stroud is that he’s already had the best wide receiver corps he’s ever going to have. In the NFL, he’ll have worse weapons, going against much better defenses. This is a real concern.
The second issue is his S2 score, so let me be explicit: I consider the S2 to be nonsense. I’m not alone:
Purveyors of snake oil are taking notes on the S2 Cognition Score discourse
If teams want to take it seriously, fine. That’s their choice. I will not.
I can live with Bryce Young going ahead of Stroud. Young is capable of playing a beautiful brand of football, and if you think he’ll be able to withstand the rigors of the NFL, more power to you. I can even live with Anthony “Ham Cannon” Richardson going ahead of Stroud. Richardson’s ceiling is the Sistine Chapel. But Stroud is the most complete and trustworthy product in the draft. He’s NFL-ready, with measurables you can trust. QB1.
I don’t want to compare Levis’ college efficiency to Stroud or Young as he didn’t have the same kind of advantage over the opposition on a weekly basis. I’m more concerned about his accuracy and his mechanics.
For a guy with a rocket arm Levis underthrew more than his fair share of deep balls. The culprit was his poor footwork. This is fixable, but will take time and reps.
For short-to-intermediate passes, Levis needs to hit his targets. Too many of his passes forced his receivers to adjust and robbed them of YAC.
Without knowing what his coaches were asking him to do, it’s tough to accurately gauge Levis’ decision-making. I can tell you there were a lot of plays where he locked onto his #1 target and didn’t go through his progressions. And then there were plays where he did go through his progressions, but too slowly to beat the defense.
I don’t want to come off too harsh on Levis. He had some beautiful deep balls that few NFL quarterbacks could match. When his mechanics were sound, his sideline throws were very hard to defend. There’s serious upside here. But Levis has to be regarded as a project. His mechanics need fixing. His play recognition skills need work. He’s not as polished a prospect as either Young or Stroud.
We’ve seen toolsy quarterback prospects blossom with proper coaching in the NFL (Josh Allen, Justin Herbert). Levis might join them. Then again, he might not. Accuracy is a tricky thing to fix. So is processing speed. There’s no way I’m taking Levis over Stroud. If I have the stomach to gamble, I want Richardson. If I want a more polished prospect, Young. Levis, who will turn 24 in June, is my QB4.
Anthony Richardson: We’ve never had a prospect anywhere close to Richardson. I’m not just talking about his insane combine. Cam Newton had a lot of similarities, if not the raw speed. But Newton was polished. He won the NJCAA Championship at Blinn College and followed that up with a BCS Championship at Auburn. Richardson has completed a total of 215 passes for 3,105 yards in his collegiate career. Let’s take a look at last season:
Richardson averaged more yards per carry than yards per pass attempt. The truth is he’s still raw by collegiate standards, having dealt with numerous systems while at Florida. His accuracy is poor because his mechanics are terrible. He’s going to need years of training to get up to speed… is the narrative about Richardson.
Let’s break it down. Richardson’s passing numbers are better than they might appear. His receivers let him down quite a bit. That should be less of an issue in the pros.
His mechanics really do need quite a bit of work. Part of the problem is he has so much arm strength that he hasn’t had to learn proper footwork. This is a fixable issue.
The thing I want to focus on is that the quality of Richardson’s decision-making. It was often excellent. For a guy who hasn’t had a lot of reps, he showed a solid understanding of both protection and coverage concepts. He also knew where to put the ball to beat coverage and protect his receiver.
Having said all of that, yes, he’s still fairly raw. His accuracy on short passes is N/A. Florida’s offensive system didn’t hav/e many short routes (1-10 yards) for Richardson to target. When he did, the results weren’t great. Now let me again note, Richardson got very little help from his receivers or from his offensive coaches. This is an area where he’ll likely improve quite a bit in the pros.
Richardson did a great job of avoiding sacks. He could have rushed much more often than he did. Usually he repositioned himself in the pocket and looked to make a play downfield. And when he did take off? The defense now had quite the challenge.
It’s not just his rushing skills that make Richardson worth the risk and the effort. When he did manage to get his body in sync, he threw an absolutely beautiful ball. The arm talent here is exceptional. If Richardson can fix his mechanics and learn how to read defenses at an NFL-level, he’s a Dragon-level threat to the rest of his division.
If.
That’s the rub with Richardson. If he were as polished as Young, he’d be the most prized first-overall pick in the history of the NFL. As is, we’re talking about a quarterback who made 13 starts in college. His offense was… let’s be kind and say it was a work in progress. If you want to argue that’s he picked up some bad “hero-ball” habits at Florida, I’d have to concede the point. Again, this is something coaching and reps can fix.
His pre-snap reading skills will also improve with reps. I’m a broken record on this, because we’re dealing with a prospect who’s only made 13 starts.
The footwork is the big thing though. Once that gets corrected, passes will stop sailing, and the rest of his game can develop. Richardson is the highest upside prospect in this draft. Does that make him worthy of the #1 overall pick? Probably not, given how polished Stroud and Young are. But once they’re gone, there’s no quarterback who has a better risk-reward profile than Richardson. And yet, Levis might go second, while we have no real idea of where Richardson ends up.
Richardson won’t turn 21 until May. He’s my QB3, because I’m a gutless coward. If I had the balls God gave the common prairie dog, I’d have Richardson ahead of Young. As is, he’d be my third quarterback off the board, and my third selection overall.
Jake Haener: Undersized. Turned 24 in March. Tough combo to sell to coaches. The benefit is Haener has produced at Fresno State:
Haener has impressed me with his toughness and is a decent athlete. However, he doesn’t have great arm strength, or a quick enough release to compensate.
The best case scenario is a West Coast offense that doesn’t require a lot of deep passes. My sense is that Fresno State was his ceiling and that he won’t be able to consistently pressure NFL coverage.
I consider Heaner to be a mid day three value who should be able to be a competent backup in a few years.
Hendon Hooker: will turn 26 in January. At least he’s NFL-sized. Hooker is trying to be QB5 in a four quarterback draft. Let’s break down his stats:
He also rushed for 1,050 yards and 10 touchdowns. Throwing for 58 touchdowns and only five interceptions in two years in the SEC is big game.
I’ve hit a lot of prospects for their footwork. That’s not an issue with Hooker. He’s clearly trained quite a bit in his 25 years on this earth. If age was the only issue, Hooker would be a first-round lock. Unfortunately, Hooker tore the ACL in his left knee against South Carolina. That’s why he could not run at the combine.
Looking past the injury, there are some questions as to how well Hooker’s success in the Tennessee offensive system will translate to the NFL. He doesn’t have as much experience reading defenses and moving through progressions as you might expect.
The biggest issue might be his tendency to sail passes. Good footwork aside, I can’t tell if this was an issue with coordination or him not trusting his arm strength and trying to power it through without getting it down. Speaking of arm strength, Hooker’s is… acceptable.
One other issue is sack avoidance. Hooker took 60 sacks in his two seasons at Tennessee. He’s going to need to learn to get rid of the ball before the rush can get there. Tennessee ran a lot of play-action, so if the defense wasn’t fooled, Hooker needed to make quicker decisions.
I can’t speak to the ACL injury. Presuming it’s not a serious concern, Hooker’s limitations and age suggest he’s a round-three value. The NFL needs quarterbacks though, and 53-5 TD-INT is a heck of a ratio. Hooker might be off the board before the middle of day two. I wouldn’t take him that early.
Bonus prospects:
Rank
NAME
POS
SCHOOL
Grade
153
Tanner McKee
QB
Stanford
50.38
154
Jaren Hall
QB
BYU
49.96
Tanner McKee: Tall. Turns 23 on draft night. Produced -42.5 EPA last year at Stanford. Produced -17.5 EPA in 2021. Has similar mobility to late-era Dan Marino. Doesn’t have great footwork or a rocket arm. But again, he’s tall, so he should go around the middle of day three.
Jaren Hall: Turned 25 in March. Nice production the last two seasons at BYU:
Age aside, Hall might be on more radars if he weren’t a bit undersized. This dude can move and hit targets in stride. He has a decent arm. Hall has had some trouble staying healthy.
If I wanted to take a flier on a day three quarterback prospect, Hall would be my choice.
I need to do more research to present a full rebuttal to the positional value charts for interior offensive linemen. For now, let me say this: There is a paucity of elite guard prospects. A fair number of interior offensive linemen are converted tackles who couldn’t hack it outside. Guards who play at a high level are valuable. See Chris Lindstrom as a case in point.
The 2022 FCS offensive lineman of the year. Elite agility. A master of taking the correct angle. Dominant run blocker. Nasty attitude on the field. Coaches generally like that, but they’ll need to make sure he avoids flags.
Apart from the short arms, there are a few concerns that might knock Mauch down on draft boards. The first is that he turned 24 in January. An overage player dominating FCS competition isn’t the kind of thing that impresses the NFL.
The second is his unusual weight distribution. He carries a disproportionate percentage of his weight in his upper body. That’s one of the things that makes his short (for the position) arms stand out. He’s done his best to bulk up, but the additional weight has raised his center of gravity.
I like Mauch. His film showed that the dude can play. He’ll have to adjust to a new position, so a little patience will be in order. I’m fine taking Mauch early on day two.
O’Cyrus Torrence: Transferred to Florida for his senior season after started his college career at Louisiana. The jump in competition didn’t phase Torrence. Dominant right guard (First Team All-SEC). Opponents likely have nightmares about his huge hands locking on.
You might expect Torrence to have had a problem with holding penalties, but that wasn’t the case. Torrence has learned how to do his job without getting flagged.
There are a lot of offensive tackles who I expect with have to move inside this draft. One common thread with them is that they started out playing other positions and bulked up to play tackle. Torrence is the opposite. He was 420 in high school and had to work to keep the weight off. What he lacks in athleticism, he makes up for with technique and power.
Torrence is not going to be a fit for every blocking scheme. Asking him to pull and hit the edge isn’t his best usage. What he can do is open up holes in the running game and stand his ground in pass protection. He doesn’t carry the risks of a converted tackle who might not adapt to the new role.
I’m not too worried about the mediocre combine numbers or him only having one season against top competition. He faced Jalen Carter and played well in the matchup. He’s the best pure guard on the board. If he’s a good fit for your scheme and you have a positional need, Torrence makes sense outside of the top 20.
Vorhees has played at guard, center, and tackle. He’s an excellent run blocker, showing good power and athleticism. He’s solid in pass protection. A former wrestler, Vorhees has quick footwork and good hand placement.
The concern for Vorhees (pre-injury) was that he might already be maxed out with little upside. I can’t dismess those concerns. Pre-injury I saw a player worthy of a second-round pick due to his versatility and polish. Now? I don’t think I’d take him before day three. It sucks for Vorhees, but missing a year + the potential long-term concerns change the risk reward calculus.
Steve Avila: Short and stout. Avila has a lot of the skills teams look for. No holding penalties or sacks allowed in 2022. Powerful run blocker.
Can be a bit slow off of the snap. That led to a small issue with false starts. He’s made 17 starts at center and might move back there in the pros.
Avila is excellent at anchoring against a power rush. His weakness is adjusting to stunts, particularly when he has to work in space without help. This is an area where he’ll need to be in the right scheme to minimize this. There’s also an issue where he showed some confusion when he didn’t have someone to block and was unsure of where he should provide help.
His new employer will need to clean up his technique and blitz recognition. Avila provides a rare blend of size and power inside. He’s not a good fit for a scheme that prizes athleticism. I’d be comfortable taking him in the back half of round two.
Emil Ekiyor Jr.: Declined to run at the combine. The light came on last season as Ekiyor earned a First Team All-SEC nod at right guard. Ekiyor likes to make first contact, which can backfire if the defender dekes him. Not a major issue at the college level, but something he’ll need to correct.
Ekiyor might already be close to his ceiling. He turned 23 in January and has been at Alabama for five seasons. On film he looks good, but didn’t flash explosive power or elite athleticism. Ekiyor has turned into a very good player, who might never be great.
That’s the rub here. You’re looking at a player who might end up being a serviceable starter, but not much more. There’s value in competence, and I think that value is early day three.
Rank
NAME
POS
SCHOOL
Grade
22
John Michael Schmitz
C
Minnesota
80.31
77
Olu Oluwatimi
C
Michigan
64.29
84
Joe Tippmann
C
Wisconsin
63.65
116
Jarrett Patterson
C
Notre Dame
58.19
131
Alex Forsyth
C
Oregon
54.61
133
Ricky Stromberg
C
Arkansas
54.00
John Michael Schmitz: First Team All American center. Schmitz is not a guy who impressed me at first look. His combine numbers are in line with what I saw on film. But then play, after play, after play… he did his job. That job included calling out protections. He read the defense, snapped the ball, made his block.
Schmitz is pretty much the opposite of the planet theory. He’s not a true mauler. He’s solid, game in, game out. A former wrestler, Schmitz is quite good at hand control and moving a defender off the spot. Just don’t expect too many pancakes.
Now, I should note he turned 24 in March. He redshirted in 2017 and spent six years at Minnesota. I would expect limited further development in the pros. The one area he’ll need to work on is his footwork. The NFL will expect him to set anchor in pass protection faster than we’ve seen from him at Minnesota.
To me, Schmitz is the clear #1 option in a weak draft. More metronome than monster. I expect that teams will prefer to reach for physical marvels in the first round and that Schmitz will be available on day two. If I needed a center, particularly one ready to start week one, I’d grab Schmitz late in the first round.
Olu Oluwatimi: Oluwatimi won the Rimington Trophy (best collegiate center), the Outland Trophy (best interior offensive lineman), and was a first-team All American. I… am not sure why.
I watched his film expecting to see greatness. Or at least rock-solid consistency. Instead, I saw a player I’m not sure can hold his own at the next level. His combine was mediocre. Smallish hands.
Don’t get me wrong. He was fine. He did a nice job battling if he was ever out of position. Solid anchor. Polished technique in the running game. Was able to make his blocks, if not highlights.
I wonder if Oluwatimi was praised for being the leader of a very strong offensive line, even if he wasn’t a truly dominant center. I see him as a late day two or early day three value. I’d definitely prefer bother Schmitz and Tippman over him.
On tape Tippmann flashed both raw power and athleticism. He was capable of embarrassing opposing defenders. However, there was a boom-bust aspect to his play. He drew more than his fair share of holding flags. Additionally, his height makes it tough for him win leverage battles.
One concern is that he’s had surgery on both shoulders. Tippmann might play harder than his body is built for. Another is that he might not be able to stick at center and would have to move to guard. There, his height might be less of a concern.
If Tippmann gets a clean bill of health, he’s a prospect with huge upside. He checks off the boxes for NFL-level power and athleticism. Solid second-round value (pending clean medicals).
Luke Wypler: Started at center the last two years for Ohio State. Good athlete. Short-armed and didn’t display NFL-level power. He’ll need a team that takes advantages of his strengths (intelligence, mobility), and downplays his weaknesses (raw power, length).
Wypler should be able to adjust to the speed of the game. My concern is that athleticism and technical skill can only bring a player so far. I’m concerned that Wypler will not be able the weight and core strength he’ll need in the NFL. I wouldn’t touch him until day three.
Jarrett Patterson: Played at both center and left guard at Notre Dame. I’m unsure of where he’ll play in the NFL. Judging by his combine he might end up being a better fit at guard, short arms and all. He was a flag magnet in 2021 at center, but cleaned up his play in 2022 at left guard. It could also be a matter of development.
On film he looked… fine? Not dominant. His technique seemed fine. Patterson’s bad plays seemed less an issue of him making a mistake and more an issue of him being overmatched. That’s a bad sign as mistakes can be corrected, but talent is harder to acquire.
Patterson’s versatility makes him a fourth-round value to me. Even if he isn’t a day one starter, he’ll provide quality depth while he develops.
Alex Forsyth: Dude has no hops. I jest. Forsyth injured his hamstring doing the vertical jump and couldn’t run the rest of the drills.
Made the Pac-12 first-team. I’m not sure how strong the competition was. Forsyth didn’t have the lower body strength to drive defenders out of the spot. It also limited his ability to anchor. Forsyth is a technician who might not have the power to start in the NFL.
Forsyth turned 24 in February. I don’t see the upside here. Late day three value. Sorry Alex.
Ricky Stromberg: Perhaps a tad undersized, with good length. Stromberg faced some very tough competition over his career at Arkansas. I can’t say he won his battles vs. the best of the best. I can say he didn’t get demolished and looks like he’ll be able to handle the competition he’ll face in the NFL.
Stromberg did fine work in the running game. He flashed impressive power. His technique also improved quite a bit over his college career.
In the passing game he did a better job matching up against speed than he did against raw power. That ties back into him being potentially undersized relative to the NFL prototype. He’ll need to go to a team where he’s a good fit for their system. I’ll note that we’ve seen NFL centers under 300 pounds. Stromgberg should be able to find a job.
He does have some experience at guard, which should be handy if he starts his career as a backup. I expect Stromberg to earn a starting center job during his rookie contract. Late fourth-round value.
The NFL is not impressed with this offensive tackle group. I get it. It’s unclear how many of these guys will be able to stay outside. We might see some reaches here due to the lack of good options later in the draft.
Peter Skoronski: 32.25. Remember that number because it’s the one black mark on Skoronski’s profile. I’ll explain shortly. First, let me share why I love him as a prospect.
Skoronski won numerous accolades at Northwestern, including being a unanimous All-American and Big Ten OL of the year in 2022. I’ll note that Paris Johnson Jr. also played in the Big 10.
Skoronski has an excellent mix of power and technique. If he doesn’t win on initial contact he’s very good at resetting his anchor and moving the defender away from the pocket. He’s an effective run blocker, particularly in the second level where he moves much better than you’d expect for a man his size. Feasts on easily predictable edge rushers.
The fact is, no offensive lineman in college football was more effective at protecting the quarterback in 2022. Skoronski’s college numbers were near impeccable. The only real flaw might be penalties (two holding calls, three false starts).
The issue is, that was college. He could get away with having 32.25 inch arms. That’s well below what many teams have as their desired length at left tackle. As such, he may end up being forced to move inside. Lack of college film at the position aside, Skoronski would easily be considered the top guard in this year’s class.
A few years ago Teven Jenkins tried to make it at tackle in Chicago with 33.5 inch arms. It didn’t work out. This list offensive lineman and their arm lengths is a bit dated. Having said that, it shows how rare it is to succeed at tackle with sub-34 inch arms. Sub 32.5 would be unprecedented.
There’s much more demand for elite offensive tackles than there is for elite guards. I expect wherever Skoronski lands, he’ll get a shot to prove himself outside. If he can’t hack it, his floor is (presumably) an elite interior lineman. I think Skoronski is worth a pick in the back half of the top ten. We’ll see what the NFL thinks.
(Editor’s note: If Skoronski does move inside, cut him a little slack as there will be a learning curve as he adapts to his new position.)
Paris Johnson Jr.: No arm length concerns here. Don’t sweat the lack of drills, Johnson looked plenty athletic on film. Johnson has experience at both right guard and left tackle.
Johnson’s size and athleticism gave him an advantage over his competition. He’s still learning the finer points of both pass protection and run blocking. Moving to cover speed rushers was no problem. The same thing with attacking linebackers on the second level. However, in both cases he was prone to being a bit too aggressive and giving defenders and angle in the space Johnson had just vacated.
The toughest issue for Johnson to fix will be lowering his center of gravity. Johnson is more long than thick. He doesn’t quite have the raw power that teams are looking for.
Johnson is an extremely smart dude. Many of the flaws in his game will disappear with reps and coaching. As much as I love Skoronski, Johnson is the more natural fit at left tackle in the NFL. As such, he would be my first offensive lineman off the board.
Broderick Jones: Jones checks off all of the boxes. Size, length, athleticism, college pedigree. Great feet. Highly adept at taking quick sets and resetting. He’s only made 19 career starts at left tackle, yet held down the position in back-to-back National Championships.
Jones is still learning the position and his technique has plenty of room for improvement. His coaches will have to teach him proper hand usage. To his credit, Jones has learned to protect the quarterback without getting flagged for holding. Additionally, his run blocking skills are rare. This dude can wreak havoc around the edge and downfield.
The knocks on Jones are a lack of dominant power and an only decent performance of winning on first contact. NFL bull-rushes will be a challenge for him until he learns how to set a firmer anchor. Also, while his arms exceed the bare minimum for the position for most teams, the preference would be for 35”+.
Jones is a solid prospect. He wasn’t as dominant as Skoronski, and lacks Johnson’s size. As such, he’s relegated to #3OT. Given the positional value, I’m fine with taking him off the board outside of the top 10.
Darnell Wright: I’m not sure what I was expecting from Darnell Wright at the combine, but this wasn’t it. On film Wright flashed incredible power and questionable athleticism. Wright played right tackle in 2020, flipped over to left tackle in 2021, and bounced back to right tackle in 2022. Wright finally reached his potential last season, and made First Team All-SEC.
Wright is a rare case where he might get a shot at left tackle, stick at right tackle, or perhaps even be moved inside to guard. Sub-34 inch arms make his NFL position a question. My best guess is that he’ll be able to stay at right tackle. Wright has NFL-level power and showed he could pass protect against the elite on the right side.
Wright gets himself in trouble sometimes when he looks to bully an opponent instead of merely staying in front of him. His technique will sharpen with more experience. There simply aren’t many men with Wright’s mix of size and power who can dominate in the trenches.
I appreciate the right tackle does not have the positional value of left tackle. Even so, I’m comfortable using a late first-round pick on Wright. He was genuinely impressive in 2022 and if he fits your scheme, he should be a quality addition for years to come.
Jones is still learning how to play right tackle. Basketball was his first love. His length and power is obvious on film. He’ll need some time to upgrade his technique, particularly against speed rushers looking to turn the corner.
In the running game Jones is a mauler. If he latches his long arms onto you, the best you can hope for is a holding penalty. You will not be making a tackle. Jones isn’t great at attacking the second level. The best I can say for him there is at least he makes guys go around him.
In the passing game his ceiling is incredible. If he can fix his footwork he could be one of the premier right tackles in the NFL. Jones is a good example of George Young’s Planet Theory. I’d be comfortable snagging him early day two.
Jaelyn Duncan: Four years of experience at Maryland. Solid athlete. Sub-34 inch arms will be a concern for some teams. Another will be his film. Duncan mostly held his own in college, but the tape suggests he does not have enough power to play outside in the NFL. Frankly, physically his best fit might be at center.
I rarely talk about “motor.” Duncan’s play has concerned scouts and coaches alike. He does not appear to provide consistent effort every play. And then there’s the penalties. Duncan averaged 0.80 flags per game over his final two seasons. That is very, very, very bad.
When given the opportunity to show his talent against elite competition, Duncan gave up an average of two sacks per game (vs. Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State).
I don’t like Duncan as a prospect. To be fair, he’s still learning the game, having picked it up in high school. He’ll turn 23 in July. Perhaps he has real upside in the interior of the line. I wouldn’t touch him until day three.
Anton Harrison: I will tell you right now that Harrison is one of the trickiest players for me to judge in this draft. The reason is that his responsibilities at Oklahoma are quite different than his responsibilities in the NFL will be, even at the same position (left tackle).
What I can tell you is that we’re looking at a pretty good athlete with decent measurables. Harrison learned how to play fast and recognize his role in the play. In the running game Harrison was good at getting to the spot, but lacked the power to dominate.
I see a wide range of outcomes for Harrison. He might end up adapting well to a traditional NFL offense. Alternatively, he might not be able to offer enough power or quickness to keep elite edge-rushers off his quarterback. I need to be clear on this: Harrison’s raw power is going to remain a question until he proves he can hold his own against NFL edge-rushers.
One thing I’ll note: he managed to pick up a fair amount of flags for someone playing in an offense designed to get the ball out quickly.
This is a case where whomever drafts him should show some patience while he adapts to the pro game. I see enough upside here where he should be worth a look around the middle of round two.
Matthew Bergeron: Go Orange! I’m rooting hard for Bergeron, but I have to admit that while he did a nice job in college, I never felt like I was watching an NFL tackle. His combine suggests that perhaps a move inside is in order. Admittedly, he has not played guard, so it’ll be a learning experience.
Perhaps I should try to show a bit more optimism here. Bergeron did a nice job run-blocking. He impressed me both with his footwork and his technique. He figured out how to maximize his leverage and seal off the edge.
It’s possible Bergeron will get a chance at right tackle. In that case he’ll need to develop a bit more power to anchor against the bull rush.
I hope I’m underestimating Bergeron. It would be nice to see him stick on the outside. That’s just not my expectation. I’d be fine taking him in the third round and hoping for the best. Most likely, he’ll be off the board well before then.
Tyler Steen: Steen is a converted defensive lineman who is still learning the nuances of playing on the offensive line. That’s why I feel bad suggesting the he might have to move inside in the NFL. Sub-33 inch arms are not what the NFL is looking for at tackle.
Steen improved quite a bit between his junior and senior seasons (which included a transfer from Vanderbilt to Alabama). On some plays, he looked great, easily handling the opposition. On others, he looked confused. My sense in if he gets a couple of years to learn how to play guard in the NFL, he’ll be able to hold down a starting job for years.
I am highly skeptical Steen will be able to stick at tackle. Long edge rushers will make first contact and put him at a disadvantage. It’s not clear to me he has the proper anchor to hold his own against the bull rush.
As a guard prospect, Steen looks good. We don’t have any film of him playing the position though. As such, he’s a project. As with Bergeron, I’ll give him a third-round grade.
Blake Freeland: I’m wondering how much weight he can add to his frame. 6’8, 302 pounds makes for a very unusual prospect.
As you might imagine, Freeland was not a dominant run-blocker. It was tough for him to gain proper leverage against a moving target. He’ll need to add another 20+ pounds to possibly have the power needed to hold down a tackle job in the NFL. I do NOT see moving inside as an option for Freeland.
On the plus side, Freeland is very tall, which must be nice. He’s also a very good athlete, which makes me wonder if he might be able to move even further outside, to tight end. Freeland used to be a quarterback and has gained 100+ pounds in his effort to play tackle. At tight end, he could shed 20+ pounds, gain back some speed, and still be an elite blocker for the position. Obviously, it’s a lot to ask of someone still learning his current position. It’s just a thought for such an unusual prospect.
My expectation is that Freeland puts on some weight, and sticks at right tackle for a team that doesn’t need him to run block. As such, he looks like a third-round value.
Ryan Hayes: Does not have the measurables to play left tackle in the NFL. This means he’s going to have to move inside and learn a new job. He’s a bit tall and a bit light to play guard. There’s nothing to be done about his height. He’ll just have to pack on a few pounds of muscle.
Hayes holding down a left tackle job at Michigan (and doing a decent job of it) should tell you how big the leap is to the pros. He didn’t allow a sack last season! And yet, I am not seeing a player with the power necessary to start in the NFL.
Hayes is a project with limited upside. I’d be fine taking him around the middle of day three.
At this point I feel like we as a society have a pretty good grasp of the concept of positional value, and how it applies to running backs. That’s unfortunate for Bijan Robinson, because appears to be quite good.
One question to ask is: If a team was not allowed to:
1. Draft running backs before day three.
2. Sign running backs to a second contract.
How much of a disadvantage would that team face?
Anyways, let’s look at the running backs who will get first crack at making an impact in the NFL.
Bijan Robinson: Last season Robinson produced 1,894 yards-from-scrimmage on 289 squid (44 EPA). That was in 12 games. Premier athlete. Showed impressive receiving skills. His pass protection skills are good, relative to his size. This isn’t ever going to be an elite strength.
Robinson is a very patient runner who will trust his vision as he seeks out an opening. Highly evasive in space. Willing to get low and power through for extra yardage. Ran for 18 touchdowns last season and caught two more.
In one sense Bijan gives you the best of both worlds. He can look to break big plays, or muscle through in short yardage. His ability to maintain speed while juking is impressive and causes defenders to take poor angles.
Robinson has the skills to work out of the slot. Excellent hands. If Robinson goes to a creative offense, he may end up doing some damage as a receiver.
Robinson is an elite talent at a discounted position. His ability to provide additional value as a receiver makes him a solid first-round pick outside of the top 15.
Jahmyr Gibbs: Dude’s fast. Rushed for 926 yards on 151 carries, but the real news is he was targeted 54 times. He had 44 receptions for 444 yards. Like Robinson, he can work out of the slot. Unlike Robinson, he has experience split out wide.
Gibbs is a patient runner with good vision. Given his speed, he doesn’t mind trying to get outside and turn the corner. He’s a nightmare in open space, leaving defenders flat-footed with quick cuts.
Defenses might have to account for Gibbs like they would an additional receiver. It’s not reasonable to expect a linebacker to stick with Gibbs in coverage.
The mismatch reverses if Gibbs is forced to try and block blitzing linebackers in pass protection. That’s not how he should be used. Realistically, he might briefly help out an offensive tackle before releasing into the pattern.
Gibbs did a fine job returning kicks, with one touchdown in 2021 while he was playing for Georgia Tech. He should be able to take over the job if his new employer can use a kick returner.
I view Gibbs as a RB-WR hybrid. His versatility should stress defenses and create mismatches. This kind of rare speed and optionality makes Gibbs a late first-round value to me.
Zach Charbonnet: A decent athlete. Doesn’t have the elite speed or traits teams are looking for. Productive at UCLA last season:
2022: 239 squid, 1,680 yards, 14 TD, 56 EPA
Notably strong work ethic. Aggressive in pass protection. Excellent ball protection technique to avoid fumbles. Very good vision allowed him to prepare for hits while powering through for extra yardage. Competent receiver. Charbonnet is a player who looks like he’s always giving max effort.
That will occasionally cause him to have “happy feet” in the backfield as he tries to find a hole that might never open. His coaching staff might ask him to be slightly less patient. It’s a minor quibble though.
The real issue with Charbonnet is he’s fungible. He doesn’t have elite speed like Gibbs. He’ll never be as dangerous in space as Robinson. Charbonnet can’t threaten defensive backs the same way the top of the class can.
Charbonnet is does a lot of things well. His hands will earn his coach’s trust. I’m just not sure how highly to value his skill-set. Every team in the league has needs at more premium positions than running back. My guess is Charbonnet belongs in round three.
Devon Achane: Pure speed. I wish he was a bigger threat in the passing game. Perhaps he was limited by his small hands and short arms. He was moderately productive last season (1,298 yards-from-scrimmage in 10 games), but not efficient (-6 EPA).
Achane’s pass protection skills will never be NFL-level. He presents a very small target in the passing game. These factors make it tough to gauge his usefulness. He can catch dump offs, and will be a problem if he can find some open space to work with. As a ballcarrier he’s a threat to take it deep if he can find a crease and get to the second level.
Achane’s injury history isn’t too bad. Having said that, it’s an open question as to whether his body can stand up to NFL punishment.
Perhaps Achane’s best use in the NFL will be returning kicks. He did an excellent job at Texas A&M, taking two to the house.
Frankly, I’m not seeing a RB-KR hybrid. I’m seeing a KR-RB hybrid. Is that worth a third-round pick? I guess. My current depth chart better have #1KR currently listed as ? though.
Tyjae Spears: Productive at Tulane last season (258 squid, 1,837 yards-from-scrimmage, 21 TD, 43 EPA). Lacks prototype size or athleticism. It’s not clear what he will do to help an offense in the passing game. His receiving skills are still fairly basic. He doesn’t have much power in pass protection.
Spears is a decisive runner who makes his cut and goes. His film was fun to watch in that respect.
He tore his ACL in 2020. It looked like he was fully recovered, but the medical staffs would know more.
It’s a pretty big step up in competition from Tulane to the NFL. While Spears looked fast vs. AAC defenses, that won’t be the case in the NFL. I’m not seeing anything from him that would justify a day two pick.
Kenny McIntosh: Oh dear. McIntosh scored 12 touchdowns for Georgia last season (1,333 yards-from-scrimmage). Soft hands and nice receiving skills.
McIntosh did not impress me with his vision. He left a lot of yards on the field. And then there’s the issue with fumbling. His pass protection is another issue.
I guess McIntosh might be able to carve out a role as third-down back. Frankly, given his stats and pedigree I was expecting more from McIntosh. As is, I see I guy I wouldn’t touch until the middle of day three.
DeWayne McBride: A hamstring injury prevented McBride from running at the combine. McBride ran for over 3,500 yards in college, averaging 7.3 yards-per-carry. Impressive stuff.
Now for the bad news. He provides absolutely nothing as a receiver. Actual zero. He had -9 EPA over the course of his college career, on 10 targets. He had eleven fumbles over the past two seasons.
Without combine numbers I have to trust the film. Frankly, he looked tough, not fast. He excelled at generating yards after contact. My suspicion is that he’s capable of developing into a decent pass protector, but that will require some development.
College production does not guarantee NFL production. McBride is another mid-day three pick to me
Chris Rodriguez Jr.: Ball control is a tradeoff. If you keep two hands on the ball, you simply aren’t as fast as if you are running with the ball in one arm. I bring this up because Rodriguez had six fumbles in 2021. He only had one in 2022. However, in 2021 he was useful (225 carries for 1,378 yards, 24 EPA). In 2022 he had 175 carries for 904, 0 EPA.
Sad trombone.
If you’re hoping he provided some additional value as a receiver, let me dash those hopes right now (-14 career EPA).
A decent combine should keep Rodriguez from ending up as an undrafted free agent. He ran for some tough yards at Kentucky. My NFL expectations for him are low. Late day three value.
Tank Bigsby: Over the past two seasons Tank had 402 carries for 1,969 yards and 20 touchdowns. Decent combine. Doesn’t hesitate in the backfield. Had more than his fair share of big
My problems with Tank are two-fold. First, Auburn tried to make him a bigger part of their receiving game. It went poorly (46 targets, 30 receptions, 180 yards, -17 EPA). Second, his pass protection skills get an incomplete at best.
It’s very hard to justify using a day two pick on a running back who brings little to the passing game. That’s before we get into his history of fumbles.
I appreciate that Tank was able to run the ball against SEC defenses. Even so, day three selection for me.
Zach Evans: Solid combine. Hasn’t shown he can contribute in the passing game. Had 144 carries for 936 yards, 9 TD, 17 EPA for Ole Miss last season.
Doesn’t overthink things in the backfield, which is a mixed blessing. He’ll attack the line of scrimmage and hit the hole as it opens. This led to a decent number of productive gains. The flip side is he lacks the patience to wait and see how the play develops.
I’m a tad concerned that hip and toe injuries have nagged him during his college career. As red flags go, this one is minor.
Evans is a running back who brings little else to the table. These guys are available on day three.
Let’s focus on the on-field results, as that’s what Tucker will be relying on. Tucker was excellent in 2021 (272 squid, 1,751 yards-from-scrimmage, 14 TD, 35 EPA). He fell back to Earth in 2022 (258 squid, 1,314 yards-from-scrimmage, 13 TD, -2 EPA).
Tucker’s route-running skills are still fairly basic. Pass protection is not a reasonable ask. For now Tucker will have to provide value as a short speedy runner, and via screens and dump offs.
I view Tucker as a late day three flier who can potentially provide value as a change of pace back.
Israel Abanikanda: Backed up a monster season (258 squid, 1,577 yards-from-scrimmage, 21 TD, 19 EPA) with a strong combine. Showed elite athleticism on film, accelerating away from defenders.
Israel showed good technique running a highly limited route tree. For now, it’s mostly screens and dump offs. His pass protection technique will need quite a bit of work. The low center of gravity and power are there. He’ll just need reps and coaching to develop better instincts after the snap.
Israel returned a kickoff for a touchdown in 2021. He should be able to provide some value on special teams in the NFL.
One thing I liked about Israel on film is his aggression attacking the line-of-scrimmage even when a hole hadn’t clearly developed. He trusted his ability to break through arm tackles, with good results. He’s no one’s idea of a patient runner.
I liked much of what I saw from Israel. For now, he can’t add much in the passing game, but the potential is there. Early day three value.
sethburn 