Can Clemson or Michigan St. pull an upset?

Our prognosticators certainly hope so:

Site	Team	Risked	To Win	Result	Net Results
The Power Rank	Florida St.	412	161	0	135590
ESPN FPI	Florida St.	3969	1552	0	41212
BCF Toys	Houston	36108	86660	0	-93314
S&P+	Florida St.	29222	11429	0	-38497
Compu-Picks	Houston	5494	13186	0	13489
Site	Team	Risked	To Win	Result	Net Results
The Power Rank	Clemson	4143	7250	0	135590
ESPN FPI	Clemson	1314	2300	0	41212
BCF Toys	Clemson	27243	47675	0	-93314
S&P+	Clemson	27714	48500	0	-38497
Compu-Picks	Clemson	17264	30213	0	13489
Site	Team	Risked	To Win	Result	Net Results
The Power Rank	Michigan St.	8420	29050	0	135590
ESPN FPI	Michigan St.	12677	43735	0	41212
BCF Toys	Michigan St.	15643	53970	0	-93314
S&P+	Michigan St.	4938	17035	0	-38497
Compu-Picks	Michigan St.	17037	58776	0	13489

Four Games Today

And everyone is still in the black: (I discount double-checked BCF Toys plays today. That’s really what they are)

Site	Team	Risked	To Win	Result	Net Results
The Power Rank	Memphis	2000	2900	0	149327
ESPN FPI	Memphis	6055	8780	0	102527
BCF Toys	Memphis	59110	85710	0	28624
S&P+	Memphis	29034	42100	0	5486
Compu-Picks	Memphis	5413	7849	0	43598
Site	Team	Risked	To Win	Result	Net Results
The Power Rank	Mississippi State	4300	2263	0	149327
ESPN FPI	NC State	7505	14260	0	102527
BCF Toys	Mississippi State	22860	12032	0	28624
S&P+	NC State	16968	32240	0	5486
Compu-Picks	Mississippi State	2705	1424	0	43598
Site	Team	Risked	To Win	Result	Net Results
The Power Rank	Texas A&M	41500	66400	0	149327
ESPN FPI	Texas A&M	34675	55480	0	102527
BCF Toys	Texas A&M	48000	76800	0	28624
S&P+	Texas A&M	7375	11800	0	5486
Compu-Picks	Texas A&M	46863	74980	0	43598
Site	Team	Risked	To Win	Result	Net Results
The Power Rank	Wisconsin	17742	27500	0	149327
ESPN FPI	USC	13080	7927	0	102527
BCF Toys	USC	26860	16279	0	28624
S&P+	Wisconsin	6061	9395	0	5486
Compu-Picks	Wisconsin	13382	20743	0	43598

 

Disagreement on every game

Bowl season at it’s finest:

 

Site	Team	Risked	To Win	Result	Net Results
The Power Rank	California	7200	3273	0	87091
ESPN FPI	California	11040	5018	0	57442
BCF Toys	Air Force	1210	2480	0	30354
S&P+	Air Force	23973	49145	0	7572
Compu-Picks	California	7328	3331	0	-15025
Site	Team	Risked	To Win	Result	Net Results
The Power Rank	Baylor	39500	47400	0	87091
ESPN FPI	Baylor	24467	29360	0	57442
BCF Toys	North Carolina	2995	2435	0	30354
S&P+	Baylor	29417	35300	0	7572
Compu-Picks	Baylor	38308	45970	0	-15025
Site	Team	Risked	To Win	Result	Net Results
The Power Rank	Nevada	9000	14400	0	87091
ESPN FPI	Nevada	8025	12840	0	57442
BCF Toys	Colorado St.	0	0	0	30354
S&P+	Colorado St.	15200	9212	0	7572
Compu-Picks	Nevada	10706	17130	0	-15025
Site	Team	Risked	To Win	Result	Net Results
The Power Rank	Texas Tech	2837	6950	0	87091
ESPN FPI	Texas Tech	2133	5225	0	57442
BCF Toys	LSU	6560	2475	0	30354
S&P+	LSU	4735	1787	0	7572
Compu-Picks	Texas Tech	7808	19129	0	-15025

Monday Night Football

Football Outsiders is currently fighting a battle against its own personal Mendoza line. They are at -$2,980,760, and will see if they can stay above -$3M tonight:

Cincinnati Bengals @ Denver Broncos

Denver Broncos -3.5, risking $96,427 to win $106,070

Edit: From last night:

New York Giants @ Minnesota Vikings

Minnesota Vikings -5, risking $58,080 to win $56,388

Go Navy!

The prognosticators are still doing quite well:

 

Site	Team	Risked	To Win	Result	Net Results
The Power Rank	Pittsburgh	20800	26000	0	107891
ESPN FPI	Pittsburgh	19360	24200	0	87980
BCF Toys	Navy	40980	32268	0	39318
S&P+	Navy	21004	16539	0	-12094
Compu-Picks	Pittsburgh	16048	20060	0	11368
Site	Team	Risked	To Win	Result	Net Results
The Power Rank	Minnesota	0	0	0	107891
ESPN FPI	Central Michigan	11178	22915	0	87980
BCF Toys	Central Michigan	41232	84525	0	39318
S&P+	Minnesota	6880	3127	0	-12094
Compu-Picks	Central Michigan	10345	21207	0	11368

Another Rough Morning for Football Outsiders

They are currently down $3,009,244.

 

Jacksonville Jaguars @ New Orleans Saints

Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5, risking $249,700 to win $237,810

 

Green Bay Packers @ Arizona Cardinals

Arizona Cardinals -4.5, risking $115,220 to win $109,733

 

St. Louis Rams @ Seattle Seahawks

Seattle Seahawks -13.5, risking $85,653 to win $87,366

 

I’ll be back in a few hours with SNF. I’d also like to take a moment to thank the Patriots for rolling over for the Jets. Much appreciated.

 

Will this finally be a good morning for our intrepid heroes?

Football Outsiders cut their debt to $2,837,599 last night:

 

Washington Redskins @ Philadelphia Eagles

Washington Redskins +3, risking $82,200 to win $82,200

 

As for today’s action:

 

Chicago Bears @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Chicago Bears +3, risking $113,000 to win $113,000

 

Indianapolis Colts @ Miami Dolphins

Miami Dolphins -1.5, risking $51,360 to win $42,800

 

San Francisco 49ers @ Detroit Lions

Detroit Lions -10, risking $108,967 to win $107,888

 

Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons

Carolina Panthers -7, risking $109,756 to win $113,049

 

Dallas Cowboys @ Buffalo Bills

Buffalo Bills -6, risking $34,256 to win $31,719

 

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens

Baltimore Ravens +10, risking $52,400 to win $49,434

 

New England Patriots @ New York Jets

New York Jets +3, risking $127,912 to win $124,186

 

Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans

Tennessee Titans +4.5, risking $288,793 to win $255,569

 

Cleveland Browns @ Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City Chiefs -11.5, risking $147,964 to win $145,063

 

I’ll be back in a few hours with the aternoon games

Bowls^6

Some huge swings today. This should be exciting:

Site	Team	Risked	To Win	Result	Net Results
The Power Rank	Marshall	10750	6935	0	47807
ESPN FPI	Marshall	21970	14174	0	56207
BCF Toys	Marshall	13300	8581	0	-33448
S&P+	Marshall	13555	8745	0	3145
Compu-Picks	Marshall	0	0	0	-1468
Site	Team	Risked	To Win	Result	Net Results
The Power Rank	Miami	12130	13950	0	47807
ESPN FPI	Miami	8578	9865	0	56207
BCF Toys	Washington St.	33120	27600	0	-33448
S&P+	Miami	23161	26635	0	3145
Compu-Picks	Miami	23086	26549	0	-1468
Site	Team	Risked	To Win	Result	Net Results
The Power Rank	Washington	22100	7129	0	47807
ESPN FPI	Southern Miss	10572	30130	0	56207
BCF Toys	Southern Miss	305	870	0	-33448
S&P+	Southern Miss	6519	18580	0	3145
Compu-Picks	Southern Miss	4398	12536	0	-1468
Site	Team	Risked	To Win	Result	Net Results
The Power Rank	Duke	29697	39200	0	47807
ESPN FPI	Duke	28994	38272	0	56207
BCF Toys	Indiana	17440	12457	0	-33448
S&P+	Indiana	0	0	0	3145
Compu-Picks	Duke	27289	36022	0	-1468
Site	Team	Risked	To Win	Result	Net Results
The Power Rank	Virginia Tech	0	0	0	47807
ESPN FPI	Tulsa	1523	7160	0	56207
BCF Toys	Virginia Tech	0	0	0	-33448
S&P+	Tulsa	8679	40790	0	3145
Compu-Picks	Tulsa	13736	64559	0	-1468
Site	Team	Risked	To Win	Result	Net Results
The Power Rank	Nebraska	9244	18950	0	47807
ESPN FPI	UCLA	0	0	0	56207
BCF Toys	Nebraska	26502	54330	0	-33448
S&P+	Nebraska	7012	14375	0	3145
Compu-Picks	Nebraska	8798	18035	0	-1468

Some College Football Math

Very brief and simple descriptions. Percentile is how impressive your resume is (ignoring Margin of Victory). Pythag is how good you are. The #’s are based off of the F+ work of Bill Connelly and Brian Fremeau.

One tidbit: Had Houston gone undefeated, their Percentile would be .8632. It was a soft schedule, but not so soft that a strong team would expect to go undefeated against it.

(Edit: Fixed a big for Ohio State)

Clemson	0.9636	0.9585
Alabama	0.8986	0.9735
Michigan State	0.8974	0.8989
Oklahoma	0.7993	0.9475
Iowa	0.7892	0.7675
Ohio State	0.7611	0.9336
Notre Dame	0.7501	0.9093
Florida	0.7259	0.8
Stanford	0.6141	0.889
North Carolina	0.5742	0.7992
Oklahoma State	0.5316	0.757
Houston	0.5304	0.7435
Baylor	0.4808	0.8378

Happy Holidays (plus football in California)

In the spirit of the holidays I’ll skip any mention of Football Outsiders tab.

San Diego Chargers @ Oakland Raiders

Oakland Raiders -5.5, risking $104,560 to win $95,055

I hope y’all have a Merry Christmas. Stay safe and Uber (or cab) as necessary.