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Monthly Archives: September 2018

PFF is currently down $44,563 on the day, with the Eagles and Colts games pending. That brings them to -$368,513 (-184.26%) on the season.

Team Line Risked To Win Result
Cardinals 3.5 18658 18473 0
Sea-Ari o40 9391 8944 0
Cle-Oak O44.5 13998 13724 0
Raiders -2.5 15049 14332 0
NO-NYG U51.5 16366 16204 0
Saints -3 19736 17780 0
SF-SD o46 9539 8517 0
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What is a pick? To me, a pick is something were your internal line differs from the market price such that you believe you have a positive expected value betting into the market. To PFF, it appears to be something quite different. Some examples:

Hou-Ind

The market is pricing this game at Colts -115. That’s a hair above PFF’s -114. No problems there. The thing is, insofar as -1 existed it was at -110. At the time Pinnacle was dealing -1 -114. You don’t get to just wave away the vig just because you are betting into a spread, or an O/U for that matter. Spreads have prices too. PFF ended up betting on the Colts here, but that’s because they moved their internal line to -140. And then there’s this masterpiece:

Masterpiece

Internal line at -170, market at -140… no pick? What?

Thankfully, we play be clear rules here. I’ll show some deference to PFF when they have a clear line preference. If they want their money on the spread instead of the moneyline, fine. that’s internally consistent. What you don’t get to do is avoid making a play entirely when you believe you have a clear edge.

PFF has some work to do to cut into their deficit. Let’s see how they do in the early slate.

Net Result -323950
Bankroll % -161.98%
Team Line Risked To Win Result
Cin-Atl u52 31537 30324 0
Falcons -3.5 11960 11960 0
Buccaneers 3 8688 7240 0
Colts 0 18435 17898 0
Colts 1 17874 18410 0
Hou-Ind u48 18165 17300 0
NYJ-Jax O40.5 10041 10242 0
Jaguars -7.5 15612 16861 0
Buf-GB O43.5 24770 24049 0
Cowboys -2 36200 32909 0
Det-Dal O43.5 20454 18939 0
Patriots -6.5 18476 16796 0
Mia-NE O51.5 12281 14000 0
Eagles -3 26727 28330 0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Power Rank uses data and analytics to *largest fart noise in recorded history*

My word, let’s take a look at these numbers:

1. Stanford at Notre Dame.
Notre Dame (13) will beat Stanford (8) by 1.9 at home. Stanford has a 44% chance of beating Notre Dame.

No…? The current market price has Stanford at 34% to win. Off by 10%, but I think we can do better.

2. Ohio State at Penn State.
Penn State (4) will beat Ohio State (5) by 6.4 at home. Ohio State has a 32% chance of beating Penn State.

The current market price has Ohio State at 62%. Ed is somehow off by a staggering 30%. How is this even possible? What predictive model would spit out results like this?

3. Iowa State at TCU.
TCU (18) will beat Iowa State (28) by 5.7 at home. Iowa State has a 33% chance of beating TCU.

Market price has Iowa State around 21.5%. That’s almost charmingly close after the tOSU-Penn State game.

4. Oregon at California.
California (26) will beat Oregon (33) by 4.6 at home. Oregon has a 36% chance of beating California.

Market has Oregon around 55%. Moving right along…

5. West Virginia at Texas Tech.
Texas Tech (36) will beat West Virginia (30) by 1.7 at home. West Virginia has a 45% chance of beating Texas Tech.

Market is putting West Virginia around 60.5%. You’d figure one of Ed’s top five games would be less than 10% off market, but no such luck.

6. South Carolina at Kentucky.
Kentucky (34) will beat South Carolina (27) by 1.2 at home. South Carolina has a 46% chance of beating Kentucky.

Market has South Carolina around 55% right now, so hey, let’s call this one a hit! Accurate AF that Ed Feng is.

7. Virginia at North Carolina State.
North Carolina State (43) will beat Virginia (45) by 3.6 at home. Virginia has a 39% chance of beating North Carolina State.

Market has Virginia around 33.5%. Great work Ed!

8. Michigan at Northwestern.
Michigan (15) will beat Northwestern (31) by 1.8 on the road. Northwestern has a 45% chance of beating Michigan.

Market has Northwestern at… 16%. Ed… what’s going on? Talk to us, we’re here to help. What is making you publish these wildly off-market predictions. Is something wrong at home? Are you lashing out? Is this a cry for help?

9. Florida at Mississippi State.
Mississippi State (21) will beat Florida (37) by 6.4 at home. Florida has a 32% chance of beating Mississippi State.

Ed, we need you to focus…

10. Mississippi at LSU.
LSU (17) will beat Mississippi (32) by 7.7 at home. Mississippi has a 28% chance of beating LSU.

Great work, but please we need to talk about Mich…

11. Utah at Washington State.
Washington State (41) will beat Utah (47) by 4.0 at home. Utah has a 38% chance of beating Washington State.

ED! First of all, no. Utah is expected to win 53.5% of the time. Second, we need to get to the root of…

12. Baylor at Oklahoma.
Oklahoma (6) will beat Baylor (29) by 13.8 at home. Baylor has a 16% chance of beating Oklahoma.

Oh for fuck’s sake, Oklahoma is a 23.5 point favorite. Baylor is expected win 6.9% of the time, which is nice.

13. Temple at Boston College.
Boston College (42) will beat Temple (53) by 6.0 at home. Temple has a 33% chance of beating Boston College.

The market price is 21%, but I think we’re done here.

14. Army at Buffalo.
Buffalo (52) will beat Army (62) by 4.4 at home. Army has a 37% chance of beating Buffalo

Army is expected to win 26.5% of the time, and get out of my office.

15. USC at Arizona.
USC (25) will beat Arizona (54) by 3.1 on the road. Arizona has a 41% chance of beating USC.

Too little, too late Ed.

16. Louisiana Tech at North Texas.
North Texas (55) will beat Louisiana Tech (69) by 5.5 at home. Louisiana Tech has a 34% chance of beating North Texas.

Louisiana Tech is expected to win 27.5% of the time, but I guess that’s a gold star effort from you.

17. Pittsburgh at UCF.
UCF (19) will beat Pittsburgh (56) by 11.3 at home. Pittsburgh has a 20% chance of beating UCF.

Close enough Ed.

18. Arkansas State at Georgia Southern.
Georgia Southern (80) will beat Arkansas State (77) by 2.8 at home. Arkansas State has a 42% chance of beating Georgia Southern.

Arkansas State is expected to win 61% of the time, but we’ve gone beyond worrying about such errors.

19. Florida State at Louisville.
Louisville (35) will beat Florida State (67) by 9.5 at home. Florida State has a 24% chance of beating Louisville.

Ed… Florida State is a six point favorite. They’re expected to win 69% of the time. Why would you mess with perfection? I can’t help you Ed. You’re doing this to yourself and you’re the only one who can make it stop.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

First, let me give you the topline:

Net Result -305280
Bankroll % -152.64%

Yes, it really has been that bad. Pro Football Focus has been lighting money on fire over the last two weeks. You wouldn’t know that by their self-proclaimed win rates (53.8% against the spread, 63.6% against O/U’s, 70.0% on moneylines). Thing is, I’ve been recording everything. I can check this stuff. It ain’t pretty. And then there is the embarrassing MyBookie affiliation. At this point I’m beginning to suspect that PFF is in well over their heads in a world they don’t understand.

Also, I’m going to talk more about what defines a “pick” on Sunday. Until then, the full results:

Team Line Risked To Win Result
Patriots 0 37945 15178 15178
Patriots -6.5 19880 19880 19880
Steelers -3.5 21807 22898 -21807
Steelers 0 17387 10109 0
Jaguars -3 22367 23038 23038
Jaguars 0 23282 15838 15838
Seahawks 0 13448 20845 -13448
Seahawks 3 18187 19642 0
Lions -7 4080 4080 -4080
Lions 0 7640 2547 -7640
Cin-Ind U47.5 18119 17764 -18119
TB-NO U50 20158 18840 -20158
Falcons -5.5 3114 2883 2883
Falcons 0 7749 3312 3312
Car-ATL U43.5 12850 12356 -12850
SD-Buf U41.5 21878 19889 -21878
Bills 7.5 29387 26006 -29387
Saints 0 36459 8558 8558
Saints -9.5 10659 9961 -10659
Cle-NO U50.5 39600 39600 39600
Titans 3.5 2254 1995 1995
Titans 0 2932 4779 4779
KC-Pit o53 24062 21875 21875
Steelers 0 5262 2555 -5262
Steelers -4.5 1631 1568 -1631
Redskins 0 19837 8405 -19837
Eagles 0 17614 11902 -17614
Eagles -3 16420 16420 -16420
Lions 6 7087 6880 6880
Lions 0 3989 9014 -3989
Det-SF O48.5 13520 12291 12291
Patriots 0 10630 8370 -10630
Patriots -2 11997 11318 -11997
Broncos 0 5361 2119 2119
Broncos -6.5 3151 3246 -3151
Cowboys 0 10919 7136 7136
Cowboys -3 8941 8356 8356
Seahawks 0 8264 15867 -8264
Seahawks 4.5 12570 12204 -12570
Jets 3 14346 14776 -14346
Jets 0 11549 17670 -11549
NYJ-Cle o41 29358 28503 -29358
Falcons 0 9844 8203 -9844
Falcons -1.5 10866 10349 -10866
NO-Atl U53.5 40285 39887 -40285
Panthers -2.5 13549 11781 11781
Panthers 0 7992 5628 5628
Giants 6 2216 2110 2110
Dolphins 0 5181 3754 3754
Dolphins -3 1923 2000 2000
Chiefs 0 34379 14567 14567
Chiefs -5.5 19553 17939 17939
SF-KC o53 13133 12160 12160
Jaguars 0 25650 5700 -25650
Eagles 0 31393 11937 11937
Eagles -6 17743 16130 -17743
Bills 16.5 4658 4235 4235
Buf-Min o41 26836 25317 -26836
Redskins 2.5 10637 9849 9849
Rams 0 7873 2540 2540
Rams -7 6965 6762 6762
SD-LAR u49 41536 38107 -41536
Bears 0 17858 8044 8044
Bears -5.5 9787 9502 -9787
Dal-Sea o40 31104 30198 -31104
Patriots 0 42524 15297 -42524
Buccaneers 0 14787 12426 -14787
Buccaneers -1.5 14695 13864 -14695

 

 

After last night’s Patriots loss, PFF is now down $275,798, or 137.9% of their initial bankroll.

Please note, I am keeping all bets sized with a constant $200,000 bankroll. If we were adjusting for bankroll changes, they’d be down $160,909, with $39,091 remaining. That would put them down 80.45%.

Tonight they are backing the Buccaneers. Note: These are as of 5:30 PM. I’m not going to be able to check one hour before gametime as I’ll be out and about. Cheers!

Buccaneers 0 14787 12426 0
Buccaneers -1.5 14695 13864 0

 

 

 

 

PFF has now gone negative beyond their initial $200,000 bankroll as they’re down $233,273 (-116.64%). This week has just been brutal for them:

Jets 3 14346 14776 -14346
Jets 0 11549 17670 -11549
NYJ-Cle o41 29358 28503 -29358
Falcons 0 9844 8203 -9844
Falcons -1.5 10866 10349 -10866
NO-Atl U53.5 40285 39887 -40285
Panthers -2.5 13549 11781 11781
Panthers 0 7992 5628 5628
Giants 6 2216 2110 2110
Dolphins 0 5181 3754 3754
Dolphins -3 1923 2000 2000
Chiefs 0 34379 14567 14567
Chiefs -5.5 19553 17939 17939
SF-KC o53 13133 12160 12160
Jaguars 0 25650 5700 -25650
Eagles 0 31393 11937 11937
Eagles -6 17743 16130 -17743
Bills 16.5 4658 4235 4235
Buf-Min o41 26836 25317 -26836
Redskins 2.5 10637 9849 9849
Rams 0 7873 2540 2540
Rams -7 6965 6762 6762
SD-LAR u49 41536 38107 -41536
Bears 0 17858 8044 8044
Bears -5.5 9787 9502 -9787
Dal-Sea o40 31104 30198 -31104

That’s -$155,599 this week alone. Perhaps the Patriots will cut into the tab:

Patriots 0 42524 15297 0