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Monthly Archives: December 2018

Before I get to today’s games, let me cover some questions about the Massey-Peabody tracking. I’ll be referencing this sheet.

Rufus asked me which numbers I was using:

If he were nowhere near a computer, that question would make sense. If he had access to one, it would have been easy enough to do the math and verify that yes, I am using the posted win probabilities. As I’ve said before, I cannot assume any else’s regressions. However, that isn’t my main concern. This is:

So… let’s look at the Alamo and Arizona bowls:

twopointfive

What we have here is a mean, which is being average with a median. That’s… problematic. I am straight up never going to do that. The margin between -1 and 0 is rather tiny, but for Massey-Peabody regression purposes it appears that it would be treated the same as a difference between -2.5 and -3.5.

Finally, there was one other question:

Absolutely. FWIW, no one ever does this, but if someone posted their opinion as a formula, such as (internal moneyline X, Pinnacle/CRIS moneyline Y, z%X, q%Y) I’d be happy to apply that. Now to today’s games:

Massey-Peabody is currently down $2,704.

Massey-Peabody
Team Line Risked To Win Result
Virginia Tech 0 12222 26400 0
Stanford 0 0 0 0
Oregon 0 0 0 0
Oklahoma St. 0 5174 15420 0
Utah 0 0 0 0
North Carolina St. 0 13583 32600 0

ESPN’s FPI is currently down $991:

FPI
Team Line Risked To Win Result
Virginia Tech 0 17781 38408 0
Stanford 0 22223 12996 0
Oregon 0 100 82 0
Oklahoma St. 0 13188 39300 0
North Carolina St. 0 22933 55040 0

As for Ed Feng…

Current Tab -$84,521.88
% of Bankroll -84.52%
Standard Dev 121100
Two-tailed Z -0.70
ROI -13.67%

 

Ed Feng
Team Line Risked To Win Result
Virginia Tech 0 10759 23240 0
Michigan St. 0 23348 26850 0
Oklahoma St. 0 5174 15420 0
Northwestern 0 17554 39320 0
Texas A&M 0 5500 1978 0

 

 

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The most amazing thing about tonight is that if the Colts and Titans tie, the Steelers get the #6 seed. Drama!

Current Tab -$890,633.49
% of Bankroll -445.32%
Standard Dev 471844
Two-tailed Z -1.89
ROI -10.68%
Team Line Risked To Win Result
Titans 4.5 2913 3000 0

PFF is confident that this afternoon will provide some exciting, high-scoring football:

Team Line Risked To Win Result
Browns 7 22141 20313 0
Cle-Bal o41 8520 8520 0
Bengals 14 15130 14009 0
Cin-Pit o45 23390 21264 0
Bears 6 7346 6678 0
Chi-Min O40.5 30299 32420 0
Eagles 0 34964 14568 0
Phi-Was o42 3052 2725 0
Raiders 14.5 11691 10726 0
Rams 0 12560 2791 0
SF-LAR O49.5 8794 8068 0
Broncos 7 12279 10771 0
Seahawks 0 30617 4300 0
Ari-Sea O39.5 32228 30693 0

This is the final Sunday of the NFL regular season, and PFF isn’t letting it go to waste. Their love of the Detroit Lions offense remains strong. They also don’t believe the Cowboys will lay down against the Giants. We shall see. As for their results so far:

Current Tab -$938,228.08
% of Bankroll -469.11%
Standard Dev 454799
Two-tailed Z -2.06
ROI -12.12%

That Z-score is going to move today.

Team Line Risked To Win Result
Dolphins 0 25833 55282 0
Mia-Buf O39.5 990 1000 0
Car-NO o42 21162 19594 0
Saints 0 3205 968 0
NYJ-NE o47 24910 26156 0
Patriots 0 15984 2137 0
Lions 7.5 24986 22715 0
Det-GB o45 43122 41866 0
Cowboys 0 19760 55524 0
Cowboys 7 35060 35060 0
Dal-NYG O38.5 34145 34487 0
Jaguars 7 10928 10119 0
Jax-Hou o40 43634 46252 0
Atl-TB O51.5 3773 3493 0
Falcons 0 18519 13041 0
Falcons -2.5 17054 14959 0

 

 

As per Rufus Peabody’s request, I’m switching their tracking over to the moneylines from this sheet. Going off of that, they’d be up $14,407 so far:

Massey-Peabody
Team Line Risked To Win Result
Tulane 0 6400 4000 4000
Utah St. 0 5230 2067 2067
Arizona St. 0 10649 19700 -10649
Eastern Michigan 0 0 0 0
Middle Tennessee 0 8951 18170 -8951
UAB 0 5400 4696 4696
Ohio 0 12250 9800 9800
USF 0 2274 3320 -2274
FIU 0 8469 20750 20750
Western Michigan 0 615 2000 -615
Memphis 0 6900 4759 -6900
Houston 0 17091 37600 -17091
Buffalo 0 3700 3246 -3700
La. Tech 0 7600 6333 6333
Boise St. 0 1450 1218 0
Minnesota 0 2980 6050 6050
TCU 0 5206 5570 5570
Duke 0 6924 10940 10940
Miami 0 0 0 0
Baylor 0 6294 10700 10700
Auburn 0 8200 4824 4824
West Virginia 0 21143 29600 -21143
Washington St. 0 0 0 0
Arkansas St. 0 12280 11808 0
Michigan 0 11500 5897 0
Virginia 0 3589 5420 0
Clemson 0 5320 1249 0
Alabama 0 0 0 0

For them, Arkansas St.-Nevada is the biggest game of the day.

Ed Feng is backing Alabama yuge:

Ed Feng
Team Line Risked To Win Result
Florida 0 5116 8800 0
South Carolina 0 15990 9351 0
Arkansas St. 0 6160 5923 0
Notre Dame 0 9056 32240 0
Alabama 0 48700 10362 0

Yesterday was a bit of a setback for Ed, so he’d benefit from a Notre Dame-Alabama championship game:

Current Tab -$72,477.40
% of Bankroll -72.48%
Standard Dev 118763
Two-tailed Z -0.61
ROI -11.72%

Finally, ESPN’s FPI is oddly sitting out the first three games of the day:

FPI
Team Line Risked To Win Result
Notre Dame 0 8416 29960 0
Oklahoma 0 9037 37505 0

They are currently up $16,462 on the season.

Another monster day has Ed Feng in sights of the Mendoza line:

Current Tab -$51,267.32
% of Bankroll -51.27%
Standard Dev 116531
Two-tailed Z -0.44
ROI -9.61%

He’ll be rooting for West Virginia to take another huge bit out of his debt:

Ed Feng
Team Line Risked To Win Result
Auburn 0 2800 1647 0
West Virginia 0 22857 32000 0

Please note, he’s neutral on the late game.

ESPN’s FPI has been rolling as well and are up $52,998

FPI
Team Line Risked To Win Result
Purdue 0 4678 7532 0
West Virginia 0 42743 59840 0
Washington St. 0 14695 10885 0

They too love West Virginia. I wonder if they got the memo…

 

 

I have nothing to add to the discussion around the cancelled First Responder Bowl. What an utter disaster.

Other than that, Ed Feng had a monster day and his Z-Score is now about -1.0:

Current Tab -$104,277.32
% of Bankroll -104.28%
Standard Dev 107671
Two-tailed Z -0.97
ROI -20.54%

He’ll be looking to take another huge cut out of his debt with Duke:

Ed Feng
Team Line Risked To Win Result
Duke 0 26519 41900 0
Wisconsin 0 11800 14750 0
Vanderbilt 0 3640 1896 0

ESPN’s FPI is going 100% with the dogs today:

Duke 0 27499 43448 0
Wisconsin 0 100 125 0
Baylor 0 11853 20150 0

Their tab is -$10,725