2024 NFL Draft: Quarterbacks

Rank	Name	Position	School	Rating
2	Caleb Williams	QB	USC	93.21
6	Drake Maye	QB	North Carolina	88.58
12	Jayden Daniels	QB	LSU	84.69
30	J.J. McCarthy	QB	Michigan	77.45
43	Bo Nix	QB	Oregon	73.63
61	Michael Penix Jr.	QB	Washington	69.12
111	Spencer Rattler	QB	South Carolina	60.51

This is an excellent quarterback class. We have three clear potential franchise quarterbacks. Another who appears to have charmed the NFL. Two more who have some flaws, but also might end up being premium starters. And finally, one who has been spoken of as a day three gem.

I personally feel like Williams, Maye, and Daniels all have realistic paths to greatness. After that, well… read on.

Caleb Williams, USC: In a draft with at least three potential franchise quarterbacks, Williams is a rock-solid lock to go #1 overall. Over the past two seasons the 2022 Heisman Trophy winner threw for 8,170 yards, 72 touchdowns, 10 interceptions. He’s averaged over nine yards-per-attempt in each of his three college seasons.

Williams fits the mold of a traditional gunslinger. He’s comfortable moving around in the pocket, waiting for a big play opportunity. Williams has a good sense for pressure. He has the athleticism to run, even though he prefers to buy time for his receivers. He’s also good at processing the coverage and I was generally happy with his decision-making. That he took 63 sacks over the past two seasons is a sign that he felt a lot of pressure to make big plays, and took the associated risks that come with that.

At 6’1, 214 pounds, he’s slightly smaller than the NFL prototype. However, Patrick Mahomes is 6’2, 225, so I wouldn’t worry too much.

Williams has proven to be accurate at all three levels of the field. He can throw a beautiful deep ball, hitting the spot while allowing his receiver the proper amount of time to get there. He’s comfortable throwing short as well, although his preference has been to look downfield.

There are a few concerns. The first is that he’s been playing out of a pure shotgun offense. The second is that hero ball gets a lot harder in the NFL. A lot of the gambles that paid off in college will turn into interceptions in the pros. Williams will have to adapt his style until he knows what he can and cannot get away with.

He’s also going to have to adjust to the cold. On the plus side, the Chicago Bears franchise record for yards in a season remains 3,838 (Erik Kramer, 1995). Williams should earn himself a statue if he can put up a 4,000 yard season on his rookie contract.

At his best, Williams has the arm strength, accuracy, and improvisational skills to torture defenses. No quarterback is a sure thing. Williams is the best bet from a strong draft class.

Drake Maye, North Carolina: Over the past two seasons, Maye has thrown for 7,929 yards, 62 touchdowns, and 16 interceptions. Not bad given the overall talent level around him, and the opposition. Like Caleb Williams, he’s been operating out of the shotgun and will need to make some adjustments in the NFL.

Prototype size (6’4, 223). Like Williams, Maye felt comfortable challenging defenses with his arm. Maye won’t turn 22 until August. He’s still picking up some of the finer points of the game.

Maye’s process broke down a bit under pressure. He was prone to making risky throws. His coaching staff is going to need to help him find his hot reads while he learns how to see the rush coming.

On the plus side, Maye did a nice job of running to keep plays alive. He was comfortable throwing to all three levels, particularly from a clean pocket, or when out of the pocket. His footwork was kind of awful when the pressure didn’t give him an escape valve. That’s another thing he’ll need to work on. Maye took 69 sacks over the past two seasons. That was partly due to the talent around him, and partly due to Maye’s style of play. In time, I expect him to develop a more accurate clock in his head and sense of pressure.

The biggest issue for Maye is processing speed. North Carolina tried to keep the offense simple and give him clear and obvious reads. That’s tougher in the NFL. You have to keep defenses guessing, so the offensive game plans have to be more complex. The good news is that Maye has the arm strength to beat defenses. He just needs to know where to throw the ball and when it has to get there.

Maye is a high ceiling, low floor pick. He’s going to need to tighten up his delivery. His bad habit of patting the ball is going to have to go. The good news is that he’s young. He’s still developing as a prospect. The raw talent is there. He just needs a coaching staff that can nurture his skills. The fact is, had North Carolina had a premium receiver corps, Maye could have put up eye-popping numbers.

I like Maye quite a bit. He’s my #2QB in this draft and would be my second player off the board. It’s likely that he’ll be the third player taken though.

Jayden Daniels, LSU: The 2023 Heisman Trophy winner is expected to go second overall to the Washington Commanders. 3,812 yards, 40 touchdowns, 4 interceptions. He averaged 11.7 yards-per-attempt. I get it. Right now, he’s no worse than the second best quarterback in the draft.

Daniels did a fine job working through his progressions and making proper reads. His footwork was excellent when he was allowed to step up in the pocket. Daniels deep ball was a thing of beauty, putting up absurd numbers last season. Per Mike Tanier, last season on balls of 15+ air yards Daniels was 53-of-79 (67.1%), for 1783 yards, 24 TD, 1 INT. No one else was even close.

Of course, I have to note that LSU has two of the top four wide receiver prospects in this draft. I should also mention that Daniels will turn 24 in December. He didn’t impress during his first three years at Arizona State. After transferring to LSU, he put up a 57-7 TD/INT ratio. He also ran 1,134 yards last season. He’s a premium athlete who can stress the defense with his legs.

So, why do I have Maye ahead of Daniels? In a word, upside. Daniels arm strength isn’t on Maye’s level. Despite his numbers, his deep ball isn’t optimal. It was accurate, and easy to catch, but it will also give NFL cornerbacks time to make a play.

At 6’3, 210, he’s also a bit thin. I’m not too worried about that, so long as he takes care to protect himself. It’s a bit of a concern if he tries to keep the ground game as a major part of his arsenal. SEC defenses are good, but NFL defenses are better.

Daniels also wasn’t great when forced to throw to beat pressure. When his footwork suffered, he had trouble getting the distance right. The key here is to avoid the pressure in the first place.

I expect Daniels to eventually be a very good quarterback. He’s smart, athletic, and has a good arm. What keeps him behind Maye for me (besides arm-strength) is that he has some injury risk due to his slim frame. He doesn’t have the ability to make all the throws. His floor is much higher though. Right now, he’s a better quarterback than Maye. I can’t fault Washington for taking the safer choice. Daniels might end up being a top-ten quarterback in the league on his rookie contract. Just remember, he doesn’t get to bring the wide receiver corps with him from LSU.

(Editor’s note: Neither did Joe Burrow, another Heisman Trophy-winning late bloomer from LSU. He seems to be doing fine in the NFL.)

(Editor’s note 2.0: Daniels took 65 sacks the past two seasons. Williams had to play hero ball. Maye is still learning how to deal with pressure. Daniels needs to get better at either getting the ball out of his hands, or escaping the rush and taking what he can get on the ground. He is not a man built for taking hits like that at the next level.

J.J. McCarthy, Michigan: Last season McCarthy completed 240 passes for 2,991 yards, 22 touchdowns, and four interceptions. That was over 15 games. Depending on how one views Penn State, Michigan effectively played a four game schedule, with 11 opponents that they should beat (and they did). McCarthy in the four big games:

@Penn State: 7/8, 60 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT. Michigan won 24-15.

Ohio State: 16/20, 148 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT. Michigan won 30-24.

Alabama: 17/27, 221 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT. Michigan won 27-20.

Washington: 10/18, 140 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT. Michigan won 34-13.

In aggregate, he completed 68.5% of his passes for 142 yards a game. Michigan relied quite a bit on their ground game and their defense.

So why is McCarthy expected to be the fourth quarterback off the board? I have to tell you, the more I look, the less I know.

McCarthy was an efficient passer, but a lot of his damage came via play action. He’s very well respected for his intangibles, receiving credit for helping lead Michigan on and off the field. At 6’2, 219, his build is fine, if a bit smaller than the prototype.

His arm strength got the job done in college, mostly working short-to-intermediate. I have to tell you, watching him throw, I don’t feel like I’m seeing a first-round NFL prospect. His efficiency numbers look like they are piggybacking off of the running game. If Jayden Daniels had an edge because of an absurd WR corps, McCarthy had an edge because defenses had to respect the Wolverines running game.

To be fair, McCarthy played smart. He understood how to beat zones. He wasn’t afraid of taking a hit if that meant he could buy some time for his receiver to get open. McCarthy did a fine job overall. But he wasn’t as accurate as his stats suggest. His arm strength isn’t impressive by NFL standards. And he’s not a dominant athlete.

If I had to guess, the NFL loves McCarthy’s intangibles. He brought Michigan a championship. My sense is that the NFL believes that McCarthy is physically “good enough” and mentally a premium prospect. Maybe they’re right.

I’m a McCarthy skeptic. After doing a full review, he’s QB6 for me. I would not take him round one. I sure as hell wouldn’t trade up for him. Perhaps I am missing something. I guess I’ll just have to wait and see.

(Editor’s note: McCarthy turned 21 in January. He’s still developing, which might be one of the things the NFL loves about him.)

Bo Nix, Oregon: Turned 24 in February. Last season Nix threw for 4,508 yards, 45 touchdowns, 3 interceptions. Pretty, pretty, pretty good. He was solid in 2022 as well (3,593 yards, 29 touchdowns, 7 interceptions.) He even scored 21 touchdowns from scrimmage over that time.

The main issue for Nix is he did a lot of that damage in the short passing game. Actually, Oregon’s offense threw behind the line of scrimmage over 25% of the time. Effectively, they used their short passing game as their running game.

Digging deeper, Nix’s passing chart is pretty unusual. There were deep throws, and a ton of short throws, but precious few intermediate throws. I’m honestly not sure if the Oregon coaching staff felt the risk-reward wasn’t worth it, or if it just wasn’t one of Nix’s strengths.

Speaking of deep throws, Nix had solid results, but could have been elite if not for a tendency to overthrow receivers. I got the sense it was from risk avoidance. Either the receiver gets it, or it’s incomplete. That’s not going to fly in the NFL.

Nix had a Marino-esque ability to avoid sacks, taking just 10 in the past two seasons. For comparison, Jayden Daniels took 65, Caleb Williams took 63, Drake Maye took 69, J.J. McCarthy took 31, and Michael Penix Jr. took 16. Williams, Daniels, and Maye all looked to make big plays. McCarthy was tough and was willing to risk sacks/hits. Nix said screw that and took any and all checkdowns.

At 6’2, 214 Nix has adequate size. His arm strength is decent. I get why the NFL might not be impressed with his college stats.

I see Nix as a low ceiling, high floor prospect. I mean, he’s the opposite of Drake Maye in so many ways. Where Maye is young and raw, with prototype size and arm strength, Nix is 24 with… meh. You can’t checkdown your way to touchdowns consistently in the NFL. But Nix should be no worse than an average NFL starter in a few years. That’s pretty valuable. I see him as a solid second-round value and would understand if he went as early as midway through the first round.

Michael Penix Jr., Washington: Over the past two seasons Penix threw for 9,544 yards, 67 touchdowns, and 19 interceptions. I was expecting him to grade out as a solid first-round value, just behind the elites. It broke my heart when I ran the numbers. So what happened?

The biggest issue was who got credit for the success of the passing game. So many of Odunze’s catches were marked “contested.” That means Odunze gets credit for winning “50-50” balls, and Penix gets dinged for throwing to a player who was covered. More than anything else, that dragged down his rating. There’s more though.

Penix will turn 24 in May. He had eight rushing yards in 2023. Eight. Yards. Rushing. LOL RAS giving this a 9.75.

As far as the NFL is concerned, he has two big issues.

1. Injuries. He’s torn his right ACL twice. He’ll need to pass medical inspection. I can’t speak to that.

2. His delivery. It’s nice that he can throw the ball fifty yards with a smooth motion, but he’s a bomber. In college, he relied on his receivers making contested catches. His receiver corps was great, but that’s not sustainable in the NFL.

The NFL likes rocket launchers. Penix is a grenade launcher. Can that work in the NFL?

As I mentioned, he was working with an elite receiver corps. Three of them made my top draft prospects 100, including Rome Odunze in the top 10. Penix chucking the ball to Odunze worked well in college. And yes, it did impress the scouts. They loved Odunze. Penix? Not so much.

There’s good news too though. Odd throwing style aside, Penix has an NFL-level arm. His deep balls and sideline throws were on time and on target. That they were jump balls was a conscious choice. If that’s not going to work in the NFL, he’ll do something different.

Penix generally made good decisions. He knew how to read pressure pre-snap. He could go throw his progressions on time. But here’s the rub: unlike Bo Nix, Penix wasn’t pinpoint on shorter throws. Either the NFL can fix his delivery such that he can be consistently accurate in the short-to-midrange, or they can’t.

If they can’t, he’s simply not an NFL quarterback. If they can, Penix could end up being one of the elites from this class. In that sense, Penix might be as boom-bust as Drake Maye.

When I saw Penix in college I felt like I was watching a future franchise quarterback. I still feel that way. His short passing game might never be great. He can make up for it in other ways. My eyes are telling me Penix can play. Top 20 value and my QB4.

Spencer Rattler, South Carolina: Turns 24 in September. Combine was… ugh. So why is Rattler everyone’s favorite day three quarterback prospect? Let’s make the case for him.

1. Put up decent numbers against SEC defenses: 6,212 yards, 37 touchdowns, 20 interceptions over the past two seasons.

2. NFL-level arm strength. Rattler showed touch on short-to-intermediate passes.

Rattler is the kind of quarterback where you can get him for cheap and hope he’s a competent NFL starter. But is that realistic?

I don’t actually think Rattler’s arm-strength is a plus. Penix through a beautiful deep ball. Rattler did not. I wasn’t impressed by his ability to attack the sidelines. He also had accuracy issues. I didn’t love his decision-making either.

Rattler is a hair over 6’0. He’s not a great athlete. His film didn’t inspire me. He took 71 sacks over the past two seasons. He averaged one sack for every 11.2 pass attempts. Not great!

Would I take him on day three? Sure. Probably not round four though. I see Rattler as a cheap backup quarterback to provide roster depth. I don’t think he has what it takes to succeed in the NFL.