A Bracket(ology) review

I posted my seed list, as well as the seed lists of Jerry Palm and Joe Lunardi:


There aren’t any differences at the top where we all have the same four #1 seeds. Lunardi and I have the same #2 seeds, while Palm has Villanova ahead of Duke. That’s an entirely reasonable position as Villanova has a better resume than Duke:


I have Louisville on the #3 line while both Palm and Lunardi have Seton Hall. Louisville has both a better power rating (Pythag) than Seton Hall, and a better resume (Parcells). I suspect this is a case where the Big East is a huge beneficiary of the Quadrants system the committee will be using on the team sheets. More on this in a bit.

Apart from that switch, we agree on the #4 seed line. From here on out I’ll just cover the difference that I find interesting/important.

I have Ohio State on the #5 seed line where both Palm and Lunardi have them on the #6 seed line. They don’t agree who should be there instead.

I have Colorado on the #7 seed line while Lunardi has them on the #6 seed line and Palm has them on the #5 seed line. Like the Big East, the Pac 12 is getting hooked up by the NET and the Quadrant system. I have Arizona as a #9 seed, while Lunardi and Palm have them as a #6 and #7 seed respectively.

I have East Tennessee State as a #8 seed. Lunardi has them as a #10. Palm has them as a #12. Historically, mid-majors with strong resumes from 1-bid leagues have been underseeded by the NCAA, so both Lunardi and Palm have good reason to ding ETSU. I’m not trying to predict the committee though. I just want to produce the fairest bracket I can.

I have Florida as a #11 seed, while both Lunardi and Palm have them safely in as a #8 and #9 seed respectively.

My last four teams in are Rutgers, Texas, Richmond, and Furman. Neither Lunardi or Palm have Furman in. In fact, neither have them in the next eight teams to be considered. Neither have Texas in, although Lunardi has them as the eighth team out. Woof.

Lunardi has Rutgers as a #10 seed, while Palm has them among the top four out.

Palm has Richmond in Dayton, while Lunardi has them as the second team out of the field.

Palm has Arkansas and Stanford in the field, while Lunardi has Cincinnati and NC State. Interestingly, both of them have Providence in.

Texas vs. Providence strikes me as the key issue here. Texas has 0.54 WAB and they are found wanting. Providence has -0.74 WAB and they’re (barely) in.

In golf terms:

Texas has played a par 11.54 schedule. The only have 11 losses.

Providence has played a par 11.26 schedule. They have 12 losses.

Texas should be in. Providence should be out. Ultimately, it comes down to the committee making it clear that the strength of your record is what merits inclusion in the dance.






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