Texas vs. Florida vs. Stanford

Texas got people talking last night after their win over West Virginia:

The presumption is that Texas hasn’t had a very good season. That seems odd to me. More on this in a bit.

Matt Norlander suggested a win on Saturday at Texas Tech would give Texas an intriguing résumé:

I must confess some astonishment at those proclamations, but the truth is Bracket Matrix backs them up. Texas is currently listed on zero brackets.

That seems unfortunate given they have a solid résumé:

Date Team Opponent-Location for Opp Bubble EW% Result WAB
11/05/19 Texas Northern Colorado-Away 0.8134 1 0.1866
11/09/19 Texas Purdue-Home 0.2695 1 0.7305
11/12/19 Texas Cal Baptist-Away 0.9101 1 0.0899
11/15/19 Texas Prairie View A&M-Away 0.93 1 0.07
11/21/19 Texas Georgetown-Neutral 0.5488 0 -0.5488
11/22/19 Texas California-Neutral 0.8297 1 0.1703
11/30/19 Texas McNeese St.-Away 0.9656 1 0.0344
12/03/19 Texas UAB-Away 0.9158 1 0.0842
12/08/19 Texas Texas A&M-Neutral 0.7663 1 0.2337
12/14/19 Texas Central Michigan-Away 0.9182 1 0.0818
12/21/19 Texas Providence-Home 0.3515 0 -0.3515
12/30/19 Texas High Point-Away 0.9855 1 0.0145
01/04/20 Texas Baylor-Home 0.1113 0 -0.1113
01/08/20 Texas Oklahoma-Away 0.6493 0 -0.6493
01/11/20 Texas Kansas St.-Away 0.8027 1 0.1973
01/15/20 Texas Oklahoma St.-Home 0.4108 1 0.5892
01/18/20 Texas Kansas-Away 0.2105 0 -0.2105
01/20/20 Texas West Virginia-Home 0.1876 0 -0.1876
01/25/20 Texas LSU-Away 0.6105 0 -0.6105
01/29/20 Texas TCU-Home 0.4682 1 0.5318
02/01/20 Texas Iowa St.-Away 0.7453 1 0.2547
02/03/20 Texas Kansas-Home 0.0685 0 -0.0685
02/08/20 Texas Texas Tech-Away 0.4767 0 -0.4767
02/10/20 Texas Baylor-Away 0.3122 0 -0.3122
02/15/20 Texas Iowa St.-Home 0.4466 0 -0.4466
02/19/20 Texas TCU-Away 0.7615 1 0.2385
02/22/20 Texas Kansas St.-Home 0.5287 1 0.4713
02/24/20 Texas West Virginia-Away 0.4557 1 0.5443
Net WAB 0.5495

In a fair world 0.55 WAB would put you into the NCAA Tournament. Let’s compare Texas with Florida:

Date Team Opponent-Location for Opp Bubble EW% Result WAB
11/05/19 Florida North Florida-Away 0.8978 1 0.1022
11/10/19 Florida Florida St.-Away 0.4623 0 -0.4623
11/14/19 Florida Towson-Away 0.9036 1 0.0964
11/17/19 Florida Connecticut-Home 0.425 0 -0.425
11/21/19 Florida Saint Joseph’s-Neutral 0.9229 1 0.0771
11/22/19 Florida Miami FL-Neutral 0.6807 1 0.3193
11/24/19 Florida Xavier-Neutral 0.4765 1 0.5235
11/29/19 Florida Marshall-Away 0.8922 1 0.1078
12/07/19 Florida Butler-Home 0.2778 0 -0.2778
12/17/19 Florida Providence-Neutral 0.5079 1 0.4921
12/21/19 Florida Utah St.-Neutral 0.4709 0 -0.4709
12/28/19 Florida Long Beach St.-Away 0.968 1 0.032
01/04/20 Florida Alabama-Away 0.6559 1 0.3441
01/07/20 Florida South Carolina-Home 0.4182 1 0.5818
01/11/20 Florida Missouri-Home 0.5411 0 -0.5411
01/14/20 Florida Mississippi-Away 0.782 1 0.218
01/18/20 Florida Auburn-Away 0.6067 1 0.3933
01/21/20 Florida LSU-Home 0.3018 0 -0.3018
01/25/20 Florida Baylor-Away 0.3122 0 -0.3122
01/28/20 Florida Mississippi St.-Away 0.6889 0 -0.6889
02/01/20 Florida Vanderbilt-Home 0.704 1 0.296
02/05/20 Florida Georgia-Away 0.7988 1 0.2012
02/08/20 Florida Mississippi-Home 0.4973 0 -0.4973
02/12/20 Florida Texas A&M-Home 0.6326 1 0.3674
02/15/20 Florida Vanderbilt-Away 0.8961 1 0.1039
02/18/20 Florida Arkansas-Away 0.6596 1 0.3404
02/22/20 Florida Kentucky-Home 0.2295 0 -0.2295
Net WAB 0.3897

Frankly, there isn’t that much separating the two bodies of work. Mind you, Florida is on all 103 brackets over at Bracket Matrix. I can’t say I have any objection to that given I too would put them in the field. The awkward part is that Florida is currently safely in and Texas is on the outside despite Texas having the slightly stronger résumé. And then there’s Stanford:

Date Team Opponent-Location for Opp Bubble EW% Result WAB
11/06/19 Stanford Montana-Away 0.8772 1 0.1228
11/09/19 Stanford Cal St. Fullerton-Away 0.9608 1 0.0392
11/12/19 Stanford Long Beach St.-Away 0.968 1 0.032
11/16/19 Stanford Santa Clara-Away 0.8869 1 0.1131
11/19/19 Stanford Maryland Eastern Shore-Away 0.9938 1 0.0062
11/21/19 Stanford William & Mary-Away 0.9139 1 0.0861
11/25/19 Stanford Oklahoma-Neutral 0.493 1 0.507
11/26/19 Stanford Butler-Neutral 0.4227 0 -0.4227
12/01/19 Stanford UNC Wilmington-Away 0.9724 1 0.0276
12/14/19 Stanford San Jose St.-Home 0.8903 1 0.1097
12/17/19 Stanford San Francisco-Away 0.7964 1 0.2036
12/21/19 Stanford San Diego-Semi-Away 0.9138 1 0.0862
12/29/19 Stanford Kansas-Away 0.2105 0 -0.2105
01/02/20 Stanford California-Away 0.9027 1 0.0973
01/09/20 Stanford Washington-Away 0.7145 1 0.2855
01/11/20 Stanford Washington St.-Away 0.8795 1 0.1205
01/15/20 Stanford UCLA-Home 0.4708 1 0.5292
01/18/20 Stanford USC-Home 0.3917 0 -0.3917
01/26/20 Stanford California-Home 0.719 0 -0.719
01/30/20 Stanford Oregon St.-Away 0.7679 0 -0.7679
02/01/20 Stanford Oregon-Away 0.5287 1 0.4713
02/06/20 Stanford Utah-Home 0.5388 0 -0.5388
02/08/20 Stanford Colorado-Home 0.2441 0 -0.2441
02/13/20 Stanford Arizona St.-Away 0.6784 0 -0.6784
02/15/20 Stanford Arizona-Away 0.4613 0 -0.4613
02/20/20 Stanford Washington-Home 0.4084 1 0.5916
02/23/20 Stanford Washington St.-Home 0.6681 1 0.3319
Net WAB -0.6736

Stanford has rallied a bit lately, but their résumé is still well below the Mendoza line. They are currently in on 42 brackets, which puts them squarely on the bubble.

So, what exactly is going on here? My guess is that it’s an issue of power ratings. Both Florida and Stanford are among top 40 teams in the country. Texas is outside of the top 60. The thing is, both Matt and Brad were focusing specifically on Texas’s résumé. That’s as it should be. Résumé (your body of work) should be what gets you into the dance. To use the golf analogy of par:

Texas’s schedule is a par 11.55. They’ve shot an 11 on it.

Florida’s schedule is a par 10.39. They’ve shot a 10 on it.

Stanford’s schedule is a par 8.33. They’ve shot a 9 on it.

Texas and Florida should currently be in (albeit, via Dayton). Stanford should be out.

 

 

 

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