PFF: Two standard deviations!

It’s incredible in ways I find difficult to describe:

Current Tab -$874,940.27
% of Bankroll -437.47%
Standard Dev 435440
Two-tailed Z -2.01
ROI -12.38%

I’m going to have to go back and compare this to Football Outsides in 2015 and see how it stacks up. I still have difficult believing PFF can lose a full million, but it’s definitely within reach. They are currently on pace to lose $1.05M. We’ll see if they can keep it up.

Team Line Risked To Win Result
Eagles 13.5 25745 24995 0
Phi-LAR o52 37838 34398 0


  1. evo34 said:

    Is that Z score based on the difference from the vig-free expectation? I.e., should a coin flipper expect a score of 0 or something negative due to vig?

    • sethburn said:

      Negative on the basis that a coin flipper is always free to pass on any event where they agree with the line.

  2. Jeff said:

    Their page for this game literally says “No Pick” for the over/under yet you count it as a bet. Looks like you’ve been doing this all year. It’s no wonder their season has been so disastrous with your numbers. Makes me distrust all the numbers for other sites that I don’t have access to.

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