WAB 3/7: Gonzaga is going to be a tough out

I pity whomever faces the likely underseeded Bulldogs in the first/second round.

Today and tomorrow will see significant change around the theoretical cut line. Syracuse can put themselves in positive territory with a win against North Carolina, but I’m not expecting such a result. Frankly, I would have rather faced any other single-bye team in the second round, but thems the breaks.

Full tables available here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Tsi90fKMaqW26tOUP6theXc3DlMpjGu6u2JnR3mXXkY/edit#gid=0

School Implied Pythag Rank Implied Pythag WAB Avg Rank WAB Pythag Rank Pythag
Virginia 0.9869 1 9.45 1 0.9695 1
Xavier 0.9711 2 7.89 3 0.9175 13
Villanova 0.9686 3 7.96 2 0.9672 2
Michigan St. 0.9673 4 7.43 4 0.9536 6
Michigan 0.9549 5 6.51 6 0.9262 12
Duke 0.9537 6 6.49 7 0.9642 3
Purdue 0.9531 7 6.77 5 0.9558 5
Cincinnati 0.9524 8 4.75 11 0.9591 4
Gonzaga 0.9478 9 4.40 12 0.9360 7
Kansas 0.9442 10 5.91 8 0.9317 9
Tennessee 0.9390 11 5.34 9 0.9112 15
North Carolina 0.9387 12 5.17 10 0.9357 8
Auburn 0.9333 13 4.38 13 0.9080 16
Texas Tech 0.9267 14 4.08 14 0.9270 11
Wichita St. 0.9264 15 3.42 18 0.9156 14
Clemson 0.9256 16 3.73 16 0.8994 18
Ohio St. 0.9228 17 3.81 15 0.9072 17
West Virginia 0.9167 18 3.44 17 0.9293 10
Miami FL 0.9121 19 2.86 19 0.8695 34
Houston 0.9075 20 2.17 23 0.8930 21
Nevada 0.8989 21 2.07 24 0.8790 26
Arizona 0.8988 22 2.27 22 0.8869 24
Kentucky 0.8986 23 2.47 20 0.8919 22
TCU 0.8982 24 2.38 21 0.8958 20
Virginia Tech 0.8943 25 1.85 27 0.8732 31
Rhode Island 0.8932 26 1.53 31 0.8521 40
Kansas St. 0.8925 27 1.92 26 0.8442 44
St. Bonaventure 0.8922 28 1.64 30 0.8003 57
Texas A&M 0.8896 29 1.93 25 0.8704 33
Creighton 0.8892 30 1.68 28 0.8904 23
Arkansas 0.8855 31 1.68 29 0.8591 38
Seton Hall 0.8844 32 1.49 33 0.8772 27
North Carolina St. 0.8834 33 1.36 35 0.8374 46
Loyola Chicago 0.8823 34 1.16 39 0.8166 53
Florida 0.8820 35 1.51 32 0.8961 19
Middle Tennessee 0.8814 36 1.17 38 0.8287 49
Florida St. 0.8812 37 1.21 37 0.8655 36
Nebraska 0.8809 38 1.31 36 0.7991 58
Oklahoma 0.8807 39 1.39 34 0.8530 39
Saint Mary’s 0.8786 40 0.95 40 0.8691 35
Texas 0.8687 41 0.80 41 0.8624 37
New Mexico St. 0.8676 42 0.53 42 0.7878 61
Providence 0.8624 43 0.48 43 0.7774 66
Butler 0.8589 44 0.34 45 0.8851 25
Missouri 0.8584 45 0.35 44 0.8475 43
South Dakota St. 0.8579 46 0.28 46 0.7367 82
Marquette 0.8540 47 0.12 47 0.8297 48
Louisville 0.8527 48 0.05 48 0.8751 28
Baylor 0.8520 49 0.02 49 0.8732 30
Boise St. 0.8485 50 -0.03 50 0.8144 55
UCLA 0.8462 51 -0.16 52 0.8271 50
Oklahoma St. 0.8458 52 -0.22 54 0.8166 54
Louisiana Lafayette 0.8444 53 -0.10 51 0.7767 67
Syracuse 0.8438 54 -0.29 55 0.8344 47
Vermont 0.8414 55 -0.21 53 0.7743 68
Mississippi St. 0.8410 56 -0.34 56 0.7801 65
USC 0.8299 57 -0.79 58 0.8379 45
Penn St. 0.8265 58 -0.98 61 0.8733 29
Utah 0.8255 59 -0.90 59 0.7829 64
Arizona St. 0.8253 60 -0.92 60 0.8480 42
Murray St. 0.8239 61 -0.60 57 0.7733 71
Notre Dame 0.8227 62 -1.03 62 0.8718 32
Maryland 0.8200 63 -1.16 63 0.8495 41
Alabama 0.8047 64 -2.01 68 0.8233 52
LSU 0.8009 65 -1.86 67 0.7879 60
Old Dominion 0.8005 66 -1.30 64 0.7857 62
Georgia 0.7988 67 -2.06 70 0.7738 69
Boston College 0.7910 68 -2.08 72 0.7562 78
BYU 0.7879 69 -2.02 69 0.7661 73
Western Kentucky 0.7877 70 -1.81 66 0.7624 74
Washington 0.7875 71 -2.17 74 0.6718 104
UNC Greensboro 0.7860 72 -1.48 65 0.7100 90
Temple 0.7690 73 -2.91 79 0.7268 84
Oregon 0.7688 74 -2.70 78 0.7990 59
Buffalo 0.7682 75 -2.17 73 0.7329 83
College of Charleston 0.7610 76 -2.08 71 0.6288 114
St. John’s 0.7550 77 -3.49 89 0.7734 70
South Carolina 0.7547 78 -3.47 87 0.7548 79
Indiana 0.7535 79 -3.22 84 0.7694 72
Montana 0.7433 80 -2.36 75 0.6886 99
San Diego St. 0.7402 81 -3.02 80 0.8034 56
UCF 0.7383 82 -3.27 85 0.6943 96
South Dakota 0.7350 83 -2.52 77 0.7613 76
Wisconsin 0.7309 84 -4.26 107 0.7843 63
Stanford 0.7309 85 -4.06 102 0.7137 88
Wyoming 0.7285 86 -3.75 95 0.6051 123
Belmont 0.7259 87 -3.18 83 0.7239 86
Bucknell 0.7247 88 -3.13 82 0.6925 97
East Tennessee St. 0.7246 89 -3.12 81 0.6969 94
Tulsa 0.7203 90 -3.47 88 0.6695 106
Iowa St. 0.7177 91 -4.25 106 0.6975 93
Northeastern 0.7173 92 -3.91 97 0.6858 100
Fresno St. 0.7106 93 -3.73 94 0.7534 80
Davidson 0.7061 94 -3.73 93 0.8235 51
Rider 0.7042 95 -3.59 92 0.5655 138
Northwestern 0.7025 96 -4.92 111 0.7573 77
Stephen F. Austin 0.6992 97 -2.44 76 0.6131 119
Colorado 0.6974 98 -4.83 110 0.6175 117
Memphis 0.6974 99 -4.22 105 0.5299 158
Georgetown 0.6962 100 -3.92 98 0.6892 98
Penn 0.6916 101 -3.57 90 0.6124 120
Marshall 0.6886 102 -3.90 96 0.5962 127
Wright St. 0.6857 103 -4.00 100 0.5756 134
UC Santa Barbara 0.6818 104 -3.59 91 0.5672 136
UC Davis 0.6809 105 -4.06 103 0.5643 139
Lipscomb 0.6806 106 -3.28 86 0.4912 174
Vanderbilt 0.6693 107 -6.04 126 0.7404 81
UNLV 0.6681 108 -5.09 113 0.6750 103
Minnesota 0.6663 109 -5.45 115 0.6760 102
Furman 0.6655 110 -4.01 101 0.7096 91
Illinois St. 0.6625 111 -6.60 143 0.5406 152
Southern Illinois 0.6563 112 -5.85 119 0.5488 147
Utah Valley 0.6561 113 -3.94 99 0.7034 92
Idaho 0.6513 114 -4.10 104 0.5844 129
Toledo 0.6501 115 -4.79 109 0.6298 113
Iowa 0.6426 116 -6.65 146 0.7241 85
Bradley 0.6414 117 -6.33 138 0.5762 133
Northern Kentucky 0.6340 118 -4.68 108 0.7117 89
Connecticut 0.6254 119 -5.82 117 0.5259 161
Mississippi 0.6203 120 -7.01 150 0.6716 105
William & Mary 0.6136 121 -6.05 127 0.5160 163
Georgia Tech 0.6120 122 -6.74 147 0.6430 110
Georgia St. 0.6119 123 -5.82 118 0.6390 111
Illinois 0.6109 124 -7.06 152 0.6946 95
New Mexico 0.6108 125 -6.48 140 0.6352 112
Hofstra 0.6078 126 -6.07 128 0.5373 153
San Diego 0.6035 127 -6.01 125 0.5878 128
Georgia Southern 0.6020 128 -6.24 133 0.5623 140
Wofford 0.6011 129 -5.95 124 0.5299 157
SMU 0.5993 130 -6.12 129 0.7622 75
VCU 0.5979 131 -6.88 148 0.6013 125
UMBC 0.5976 132 -5.08 112 0.4302 190
Northern Colorado 0.5948 133 -6.12 130 0.5766 132
Ball St. 0.5947 134 -6.22 132 0.4992 170
UT Arlington 0.5936 135 -6.25 134 0.6000 126
Harvard 0.5883 136 -6.50 141 0.5539 145
Canisius 0.5879 137 -6.57 142 0.5825 130
Iona 0.5858 138 -7.27 157 0.6092 122
Oregon St. 0.5856 139 -7.11 153 0.6836 101
DePaul 0.5847 140 -6.91 149 0.6597 108
Albany 0.5776 141 -5.92 122 0.5571 143
Northern Iowa 0.5774 142 -7.79 162 0.6118 121
UNC Asheville 0.5702 143 -6.14 131 0.4427 186
Portland St. 0.5690 144 -6.65 145 0.5130 165
UAB 0.5663 145 -6.28 135 0.6611 107
Eastern Michigan 0.5662 146 -6.31 136 0.5265 160
Wake Forest 0.5654 147 -8.06 168 0.7189 87
San Francisco 0.5624 148 -7.20 155 0.5408 151
Radford 0.5596 149 -6.48 139 0.4716 180
Weber St. 0.5595 150 -5.93 123 0.5466 148
Missouri St. 0.5594 151 -8.71 181 0.6244 115
Saint Louis 0.5544 152 -7.91 166 0.5671 137
Rutgers 0.5540 153 -7.29 158 0.6014 124
Drake 0.5532 154 -8.85 182 0.4950 171
Eastern Washington 0.5491 155 -7.31 159 0.5447 150
Southeastern Louisiana 0.5464 156 -5.87 120 0.3922 204
Wagner 0.5461 157 -5.39 114 0.4656 181
Cal St. Fullerton 0.5457 158 -6.32 137 0.4616 182
Saint Joseph’s 0.5438 159 -8.11 170 0.6196 116
Utah St. 0.5363 160 -8.13 171 0.5580 142
Evansville 0.5349 161 -8.46 177 0.5276 159
Jacksonville St. 0.5337 162 -7.02 151 0.5515 146
Niagara 0.5253 163 -8.15 172 0.4040 199
Dayton 0.5250 164 -8.98 185 0.5361 155
Nicholls St. 0.5247 165 -5.91 121 0.4397 188
Grand Canyon 0.5233 166 -5.53 116 0.6524 109
UTSA 0.5210 167 -7.21 156 0.4535 183
Yale 0.5091 168 -7.82 163 0.4881 175
Washington St. 0.4986 169 -9.58 194 0.4299 191
Tennessee Tech 0.4984 170 -8.21 174 0.3600 224
Florida Gulf Coast 0.4948 171 -6.61 144 0.6158 118
Austin Peay 0.4919 172 -7.91 165 0.4019 200
George Washington 0.4894 173 -9.31 191 0.4421 187
Oakland 0.4881 174 -8.27 175 0.5063 166
UC Irvine 0.4879 175 -8.94 183 0.5709 135
Towson 0.4872 176 -9.28 190 0.5600 141
George Mason 0.4854 177 -9.36 192 0.3876 208
Tulane 0.4810 178 -8.03 167 0.5041 168
Seattle 0.4806 179 -7.12 154 0.3878 207
Mercer 0.4803 180 -8.30 176 0.5806 131
La Salle 0.4677 181 -10.38 213 0.5556 144
Winthrop 0.4672 182 -7.62 160 0.5307 156
Valparaiso 0.4630 183 -10.41 214 0.5456 149
Hawaii 0.4578 184 -7.88 164 0.3863 209
Western Michigan 0.4576 185 -9.99 200 0.4428 185
Colgate 0.4557 186 -8.09 169 0.4336 189
Fort Wayne 0.4546 187 -8.63 179 0.5151 164
Navy 0.4491 188 -8.20 173 0.3697 217
Long Beach St. 0.4482 189 -9.81 197 0.3923 203
Hartford 0.4434 190 -9.12 188 0.3394 230
Miami OH 0.4429 191 -10.41 216 0.4140 197
Pacific 0.4412 192 -10.37 212 0.4744 179
Central Michigan 0.4384 193 -8.99 186 0.4919 173
Louisiana Tech 0.4336 194 -9.27 189 0.5365 154
Richmond 0.4295 195 -11.06 224 0.4746 178
Indiana St. 0.4274 196 -11.13 226 0.5179 162
Kent St. 0.4258 197 -10.59 219 0.3989 202
Fairfield 0.4202 198 -10.51 218 0.3896 205
Troy 0.4099 199 -10.29 208 0.5049 167
Liberty 0.4094 200 -9.90 198 0.4995 169
Sam Houston St. 0.4047 201 -8.71 180 0.3514 225
Denver 0.4044 202 -9.96 199 0.3682 219
St. Francis PA 0.4032 203 -7.68 161 0.4054 198
Bowling Green 0.4021 204 -11.29 228 0.3245 234
Louisiana Monroe 0.3935 205 -8.95 184 0.3425 229
Princeton 0.3909 206 -10.36 211 0.4826 177
North Dakota St. 0.3878 207 -10.61 220 0.4938 172
North Texas 0.3873 208 -10.19 203 0.4180 195
Illinois Chicago 0.3797 209 -10.32 209 0.4010 201
Duquesne 0.3786 210 -10.23 205 0.4473 184
Lamar 0.3786 211 -9.04 187 0.4223 192
Tennessee St. 0.3771 212 -9.63 195 0.3782 214
Ohio 0.3756 213 -11.51 232 0.4219 193
Lehigh 0.3754 214 -9.69 196 0.3636 222
Massachusetts 0.3718 215 -12.34 252 0.4202 194
Colorado St. 0.3710 216 -11.55 234 0.3496 226
Elon 0.3679 217 -12.11 247 0.3325 232
Akron 0.3669 218 -11.86 242 0.3045 245
Southern Miss 0.3642 219 -10.44 217 0.3170 238
Appalachian St. 0.3631 220 -11.94 244 0.3891 206
UT Rio Grande Valley 0.3607 221 -10.41 215 0.2755 266
Pittsburgh 0.3602 222 -11.09 225 0.3600 223
Air Force 0.3575 223 -11.77 240 0.2963 253
Cornell 0.3548 224 -10.28 207 0.2927 258
Manhattan 0.3530 225 -12.29 249 0.3826 210
Robert Morris 0.3529 226 -11.96 245 0.3029 246
Boston University 0.3512 227 -11.63 235 0.3207 235
Coastal Carolina 0.3490 228 -12.32 251 0.4144 196
Central Arkansas 0.3470 229 -10.24 206 0.3820 212
Saint Peter’s 0.3365 230 -13.00 264 0.3805 213
Monmouth 0.3363 231 -13.61 272 0.4867 176
Mount St. Mary’s 0.3351 232 -10.21 204 0.3192 237
Milwaukee 0.3322 233 -12.32 250 0.3755 215
Texas St. 0.3282 234 -12.73 261 0.3658 221
South Alabama 0.3277 235 -11.93 243 0.3702 216
Western Carolina 0.3262 236 -11.73 239 0.1991 307
Delaware 0.3224 237 -13.78 277 0.2989 250
Drexel 0.3220 238 -14.47 287 0.3025 247
Stony Brook 0.3219 239 -12.73 262 0.3697 218
North Dakota 0.3106 240 -12.56 257 0.2845 260
Cal St. Bakersfield 0.3096 241 -10.81 222 0.3152 239
LIU Brooklyn 0.3081 242 -13.17 266 0.2961 254
Northern Illinois 0.3055 243 -13.63 273 0.3000 249
Grambling St. 0.3033 244 -10.34 210 0.1845 317
North Florida 0.3026 245 -11.30 229 0.2274 290
Idaho St. 0.3009 246 -11.71 237 0.2950 256
New Orleans 0.3003 247 -10.11 201 0.2808 263
Loyola Marymount 0.2970 248 -12.41 255 0.3340 231
Southern Utah 0.2881 249 -12.19 248 0.2286 288
Campbell 0.2861 250 -11.54 233 0.3663 220
Gardner Webb 0.2845 251 -12.00 246 0.2841 261
Southeast Missouri St. 0.2828 252 -12.59 258 0.2712 267
FIU 0.2824 253 -12.85 263 0.2958 255
North Carolina A&T 0.2817 254 -9.55 193 0.1918 310
Savannah St. 0.2755 255 -8.47 178 0.1722 321
UNC Wilmington 0.2745 256 -14.92 296 0.3193 236
Abilene Christian 0.2697 257 -11.70 236 0.2705 268
Oral Roberts 0.2682 258 -13.53 270 0.3047 244
California 0.2678 259 -13.81 278 0.3277 233
Quinnipiac 0.2675 260 -16.20 311 0.2390 279
Charleston Southern 0.2667 261 -11.51 230 0.3089 240
Florida Atlantic 0.2653 262 -12.60 259 0.3060 243
Central Connecticut 0.2638 263 -13.91 281 0.1913 311
Holy Cross 0.2618 264 -15.02 299 0.2462 276
Brown 0.2596 265 -11.78 241 0.2793 264
Montana St. 0.2568 266 -14.47 288 0.2509 275
Army 0.2568 267 -13.63 274 0.3074 242
Fordham 0.2547 268 -14.26 284 0.2352 282
Eastern Illinois 0.2536 269 -13.73 276 0.2932 257
UTEP 0.2525 270 -13.68 275 0.3084 241
Prairie View A&M 0.2513 271 -11.19 227 0.2595 272
High Point 0.2470 272 -12.35 253 0.3442 228
Western Illinois 0.2450 273 -11.51 231 0.2231 292
Fairleigh Dickinson 0.2439 274 -13.18 267 0.2642 270
Bethune Cookman 0.2437 275 -10.71 221 0.2113 297
NJIT 0.2423 276 -11.72 238 0.2964 252
Arkansas St. 0.2399 277 -14.59 290 0.2784 265
South Florida 0.2337 278 -13.97 282 0.2341 283
Hampton 0.2335 279 -10.19 202 0.3018 248
James Madison 0.2326 280 -16.64 317 0.3455 227
Santa Clara 0.2279 281 -13.55 271 0.2588 273
East Carolina 0.2240 282 -12.68 260 0.2073 301
St. Francis NY 0.2201 283 -14.51 289 0.1919 309
IUPUI 0.2181 284 -13.83 279 0.2338 285
Cleveland St. 0.2165 285 -16.94 319 0.2088 298
UMass Lowell 0.2135 286 -14.22 283 0.2296 287
Portland 0.2088 287 -14.77 291 0.2596 271
Eastern Kentucky 0.2084 288 -14.77 292 0.2285 289
Nebraska Omaha 0.2084 289 -14.46 286 0.2558 274
Green Bay 0.2055 290 -14.80 293 0.2872 259
Jacksonville 0.2016 291 -13.51 269 0.1649 324
SIU Edwardsville 0.2009 292 -15.52 303 0.1746 320
Texas Southern 0.2003 293 -10.97 223 0.2970 251
UMKC 0.1904 294 -14.82 295 0.2087 299
Cal Poly 0.1897 295 -16.27 313 0.1754 319
McNeese St. 0.1844 296 -13.02 265 0.2011 304
Columbia 0.1801 297 -13.89 280 0.3822 211
The Citadel 0.1801 298 -14.94 297 0.1860 314
Lafayette 0.1713 299 -16.94 320 0.2436 277
Siena 0.1701 300 -18.35 329 0.2210 293
Texas A&M Corpus Chris 0.1690 301 -13.27 268 0.1965 308
UC Riverside 0.1633 302 -15.97 306 0.2389 280
North Carolina Central 0.1624 303 -12.47 256 0.2035 302
Arkansas Pine Bluff 0.1617 304 -15.51 302 0.1321 330
Kennesaw St. 0.1610 305 -14.80 294 0.2018 303
Samford 0.1607 306 -15.35 301 0.2400 278
Southern 0.1600 307 -12.39 254 0.1612 325
Binghamton 0.1589 308 -16.15 308 0.2252 291
Loyola MD 0.1572 309 -17.44 322 0.1911 312
Chattanooga 0.1544 310 -17.67 323 0.2156 296
Dartmouth 0.1538 311 -15.55 304 0.2365 281
Morehead St. 0.1537 312 -15.04 300 0.2340 284
Tennessee Martin 0.1536 313 -16.36 314 0.2169 294
New Hampshire 0.1508 314 -16.18 310 0.2832 262
VMI 0.1441 315 -15.78 305 0.1197 333
Stetson 0.1431 316 -16.40 315 0.1810 318
Presbyterian 0.1424 317 -16.24 312 0.1255 331
Norfolk St. 0.1392 318 -14.32 285 0.1889 313
Sacred Heart 0.1355 319 -17.03 321 0.2000 305
Youngstown St. 0.1325 320 -18.40 332 0.1685 323
Charlotte 0.1320 321 -17.73 324 0.1858 315
Detroit 0.1280 322 -18.32 328 0.1845 316
Little Rock 0.1260 323 -18.58 333 0.2303 286
Sacramento St. 0.1207 324 -19.18 337 0.2166 295
Pepperdine 0.1181 325 -18.11 325 0.2693 269
Marist 0.1177 326 -20.20 342 0.1693 322
Morgan St. 0.1133 327 -14.97 298 0.1585 326
Rice 0.1122 328 -18.19 326 0.1994 306
San Jose St. 0.1084 329 -18.28 327 0.2078 300
Jackson St. 0.1081 330 -16.11 307 0.1038 337
South Carolina St. 0.0918 331 -16.17 309 0.0842 343
American 0.0914 332 -19.14 336 0.1492 327
Cal St. Northridge 0.0866 333 -18.87 334 0.1415 328
Howard 0.0819 334 -18.90 335 0.1195 334
Maine 0.0803 335 -20.31 343 0.1254 332
Florida A&M 0.0779 336 -18.36 330 0.0845 342
Alabama St. 0.0774 337 -18.39 331 0.0929 340
Longwood 0.0736 338 -21.32 347 0.0827 344
Northern Arizona 0.0712 339 -20.82 345 0.1154 335
Alcorn St. 0.0702 340 -16.49 316 0.1038 338
USC Upstate 0.0520 341 -19.84 340 0.1133 336
Maryland Eastern Shore 0.0473 342 -19.44 339 0.0432 349
Incarnate Word 0.0463 343 -16.74 318 0.0998 339
Houston Baptist 0.0461 344 -19.22 338 0.1366 329
Coppin St. 0.0449 345 -21.19 346 0.0611 347
Bryant 0.0445 346 -23.05 349 0.0925 341
Mississippi Valley St. 0.0312 347 -22.81 348 0.0578 348
Chicago St. 0.0260 348 -20.16 341 0.0640 346
Alabama A&M 0.0228 349 -23.39 350 0.0370 351
Delaware St. 0.0147 350 -24.32 351 0.0426 350
Northwestern St. 0.0023 351 -20.45 344 0.0676 345

 

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