A minor disagreement

Football Outsiders ended up on the Colts:

Colts 7.5 19280 17852 0

While ESPN is going HAM on the Titans:

Titans 286665 83091 0

FO is down $765,542. ESPN is down $191,218

  1. dph said:

    How did you infer that ESPN went “HAM” on the Titans with the fictional bankroll. Is the bet size based on the difference between the espn line vs Vegas? For example, if ESPN caps it at a -400 implied moneyline then would the fictional bet go BIG if/when Vegas has it at -250 implied moneyline?

    What’s the FO and ESPN implied bet size and side for Raiders/Chiefs this week?

  2. dph said:

    Got it; full Kelly is too crazy for me. I’ll be going 20% bankroll on Chiefs. I got them at -135 when I think it should be closer to -190. Massey system seems to like this one too.

    • dph said:

      Actually I was willing to bet it up to -190 but I have them at over 2/3rds chance to win.

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