Football Outsiders and ESPN try to stem the bleeding

It was a brutal afternoon for both. Football Outsiders is currently down $860,514. They’ll try to get some back with the Giants:

Giants 11.5 101620 94972 0

ESPN’s SPI is down $986,676. They can get a huge chunk of it back with a Giant’s victory:

Giants 144366 795458 0

 

 

 

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6 comments
  1. dph said:

    What makes something a moneyline play vs spread when tracking these models? That was a heck of a hypothetical last week on the ESPN NYG win call..

  2. sethburn said:

    Football Outsiders always bets the spread (spread may occasionally be pk’em). ESPN always bets the moneyline.

    • dph said:

      Thanks; Have either of these models ever finished in the black? And have you ever just tracked their implied best bets only and see if that makes a difference?

      • sethburn said:

        This is my first year tracking the NFL FPI projections. Football Outsiders made money last year, got destroyed two years ago, and completely obliterated three years ago. Overall they are down a little under $7M.

  3. dph said:

    You do a great job of tracking. I hope you start tracking/cataloging the “best bets” as well. Looking at it; it seems the models big spread divergences do hit at higher rates on covers and more than the moneyline would imply.

    • sethburn said:

      Historically Football Outsiders has done somewhat worse on their largest plays than their small-to-midsize plays. I don’t have data for ESPN’s “Best bets”.

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