Jeff Ma & Ben Alamar talk BPI: NBA Tracking Update

Ben and ESPN went HAM on the Raptors, and even provided some commentary on Twitter:

Jeff Ma had a straightforward response:

The kicker came in this exchange:

There is a lot to unpack here. First of all, Ben knows that we cannot run the series 10,000 times. Ergo, his statement is to never use BPI projections to wager on sporting events. Risk aversion is one thing, but in general that can be handled by using a fractional version of Kelly-betting. If you are advising to never bet your numbers, then you are admitting they are effectively worthless. Jeff continued to probe the issue.

Ben 10… thousand has a lot of confidence in the model? I need to point out that there are highly liquid markets that trade daily for Ben to track and test his model against. Thing is, that’s not what it was built to do. I noted this:

Jacob chimed in as well:

Jeff continued to probe.

OK then…

In the end, it really does come down to this:

Jeff Ma got in the final word.

So, in summation ESPN is producing highly off market numbers displayed as fact. Ben Alamar knows enough not to believe his own bullshit, and is unwilling to back his numbers with cash. Jeff Ma called him on it, and Ben walked away from the conversation. Just another day on a website that is somehow still free.

Let’s look at where Ben Alamar’s BPI stands right now:

Team Risked To Win Result
Pacers 8720 62000 -8720
Raptors 15340 3854 3854
Bulls 11333 42500 -11333
X Warriors 4-0 4450 4045 -4450
Rockets 5000 1333 1333
Jazz 12359 25460 25460
Raptors R2 33126 126540 0
Celtics R2 5480 3079 0
Jazz R2 1188 19000 0
Current Tab 6144

And let’s look in on Nate Silver and 538:

Team Risked To Win Result
Pacers 20155 143300 -20155
Bulls 8800 33000 -8800
Wizards 34900 16619 16619
Trailblazers 2867 86000 -2867
Thunder 8462 27500 -8462
Jazz 13845 28520 28520
Raptors R2 41958 160280 0
Rockets R2 9247 20990 0
Jazz R2 3313 53000 0
Current Tab 4856

 

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