Ben and ESPN went HAM on the Raptors, and even provided some commentary on Twitter:
Jeff Ma had a straightforward response:
The kicker came in this exchange:
There is a lot to unpack here. First of all, Ben knows that we cannot run the series 10,000 times. Ergo, his statement is to never use BPI projections to wager on sporting events. Risk aversion is one thing, but in general that can be handled by using a fractional version of Kelly-betting. If you are advising to never bet your numbers, then you are admitting they are effectively worthless. Jeff continued to probe the issue.
Ben 10… thousand has a lot of confidence in the model? I need to point out that there are highly liquid markets that trade daily for Ben to track and test his model against. Thing is, that’s not what it was built to do. I noted this:
Jacob chimed in as well:
Jeff continued to probe.
In the end, it really does come down to this:
Jeff Ma got in the final word.
So, in summation ESPN is producing highly off market numbers displayed as fact. Ben Alamar knows enough not to believe his own bullshit, and is unwilling to back his numbers with cash. Jeff Ma called him on it, and Ben walked away from the conversation. Just another day on a website that is somehow still free.
Let’s look at where Ben Alamar’s BPI stands right now:
|X Warriors 4-0||4450||4045||-4450|
And let’s look in on Nate Silver and 538: