2017 NFL Draft Ratings

I’ll write more about the top players at each position as we get closer to the draft, but here are some quick thoughts:

Myles Garrett really is head and shoulders above the rest of the class. He might still end up being a bust, but no player in this class is as likely to dominate at the next level. He’s exceptional and I can’t fault the Browns for taking him over Trubisky.

Jonathan Allen is the player who I hope falls to the Jets. I’ll grant it’s a longshot, but I’m seeing mocks where it happens, so we’ll see.

Mitch Trubisky is a roll of the dice. NFL defenses would shred him right now, so the question is how much is his ability to read a defense going to improve? His accuracy is excellent, but the arm strength is only OK. Let me put it this way: A good test of how a feel about a player is whether or not I want the Jets to draft him. If they take him I’m going to order a pair of these.

Deshaun Watson is a trap. I feel awful saying that because I like him and want him to succeed, but he throws ducks. Trubisky can learn how to read a defense. Watson’s arm is what it is. Maholmes and Kizer weren’t nearly the college quarterback was, but both of them have a better shot at succeeding at the next level. Of course, others disagree.

Leonard Fournette is a monster… when running the ball. He’s surprisingly ineffective in pass protection or receiving. Forty years ago he’d be in the discussion to go second overall. He’s going to have some great highlights, but he’s a physical runner who’s now about to face defenses that are tougher than Alabama’s. I expect him to wear down with the NFL punishment.

Solomon Thomas only has one major flaw: He’s not Myles Garrett. He’s a great player and I expect him to end up being a solid producer for the 49ers.

Jamal Adams/Malik Hooker: I think Adams is a bit better, but they’re completely different players, so the important thing is that they end up on a team where their skillset fits what the defense is asking of them.

Marshon Lattimore is excellent, but the fact that this is the deepest cornerback draft in history kind of makes him an awkward pick. I think the concerns about his hamstrings are overrated, partly because our sample size of him starting is small.

Reuben Foster makes me wonder if there should be an Alabama tax in my ratings. He’s fantastic, but is he going to improve much in the pros? Also, like Fournette, I’m a tad concerned about wear & tear.

OK, I think I’ll cover the receiver corps in a later update. Also, this is a distressingly poor class for offensive linemen. I wonder if we’ll see a few teams reach because of that.

The scale is as follows:

95+: All-Pro, potential future HOF Prospect. 2014 first and second overall picks Jadeveon Clowney and Greg Robinson fell in this range, so be aware there are no guarantees.

85-95:  Elite performers, should make the Pro Bowl multiple times in their prime.

70-85: Should be able to play immediately and make an impact. Quarterbacks are exempted from that expectation, but are also bumped up in terms of draft value. It’s about as hard to win the Super Bowl without an elite quarterback as it is to win an NBA title without a star.

55-70: Solid pickup, should be starting and contributing during his rookie contract.

40-55: This is where GM’s can strike gold, or whiff completely. Here you’ll find day two picks who might contribute, or fail to start.

0-40: Day 3 picks. Many of these players will have to make an impact on special teams to earn and keep a roster spot. Others will be expected to provide depth, and maybe start sometime in the future.

Name Position School Rating Ranking
Myles Garrett* DE Texas A&M 98.82 1
Jonathan Allen DT Alabama 88.84 2
Leonard Fournette* RB LSU 88.51 3
Solomon Thomas* DE Stanford 82.71 4
Jamal Adams* SS LSU 81.28 5
Marshon Lattimore* CB Ohio State 79.75 6
Malik Hooker* FS Ohio State 78.41 7
Reuben Foster ILB Alabama 77.56 8
O.J. Howard TE Alabama 76.95 9
Mike Williams* WR Clemson 74.59 10
John Ross* WR Washington 74.51 11
Dalvin Cook* RB Florida State 74.28 12
Mitch Trubisky* QB North Carolina 73.60 13
Derek Barnett* DE Tennessee 73.35 14
Corey Davis WR Western Michigan 73.07 15
Ryan Ramczyk* OT Wisconsin 72.83 16
David Njoku* TE Miami (FL) 72.60 17
Haason Reddick OLB Temple 72.06 18
Taco Charlton DE Michigan 70.92 19
Christian Mccaffrey* RB Stanford 70.11 20
Cam Robinson* OT Alabama 70.11 21
Takkarist Mckinley OLB UCLA 69.97 22
Marlon Humphrey* CB Alabama 69.78 23
Forrest Lamp OG Western Kentucky 69.51 24
Jabrill Peppers* S Michigan 69.44 25
Garett Bolles* OT Utah 69.36 26
Deshaun Watson* QB Clemson 68.60 27
Malik McDowell* DT Michigan State 67.94 28
Charles Harris DE Missouri 67.49 29
Caleb Brantley* DT Florida 66.98 30
Zach Cunningham* OLB Vanderbilt 66.51 31
Tre’Davious White CB LSU 66.32 32
Tim Williams DE Alabama 65.94 33
Jarrad Davis ILB Florida 64.44 34
Teez Tabor* CB Florida 63.42 35
Gareon Conley* CB Ohio State 63.22 36
Budda Baker* S Washington 62.95 37
Evan Engram TE Mississippi 62.74 38
Patrick Mahomes II* QB Texas Tech 62.55 39
Sidney Jones* CB Washington 61.76 40
Alvin Kamara* RB Tennessee 61.54 41
DeShone Kizer* QB Notre Dame 61.38 42
Carl Lawson* DE Auburn 59.29 43
Jordan Willis DE Kansas State 58.96 44
Adoree’ Jackson* CB USC 58.91 45
Raekwon McMillan* ILB Ohio State 58.65 46
Quincy Wilson* CB Florida 58.52 47
T.J. Watt* OLB Wisconsin 58.50 48
Curtis Samuel* WR Ohio State 58.43 49
Joe Mixon* RB Oklahoma 58.42 50
Dan Feeney OG Indiana 58.09 51
Desmond King CB Iowa 58.05 52
Marcus Williams* S Utah 57.53 53
Taylor Moton OG Western Michigan 57.06 54
Obi Melifonwu S Connecticut 56.81 55
JuJu Smith-Schuster* WR USC 56.33 56
Dion Dawkins OG Temple 55.34 57
Gerald Everett TE South Alabama 55.14 58
Ryan Anderson OLB Alabama 54.96 59
Tyus Bowser OLB Houston 54.79 60
Antonio Garcia OT Troy 54.64 61
Justin Evans S Texas A&M 54.51 62
Chris Wormley DT Michigan 54.18 63
Marcus Maye S Florida 54.17 64
Pat Elflein C Ohio State 53.84 65
Cooper Kupp WR Eastern Washington 53.66 66
Chidobe Awuzie CB Colorado 53.44 67
Bucky Hodges* TE Virginia Tech 53.23 68
Isaiah “Zay” Jones WR East Carolina 53.06 69
Jake Butt TE Michigan 52.94 70
D’Onta Foreman* RB Texas 52.81 71
Dawaune Smoot DE Illinois 52.61 72
Ethan Pocic C LSU 52.13 73
Derek Rivers DE Youngstown State 52.09 74
DeMarcus Walker DE Florida State 52.01 75
Cameron Sutton CB Tennessee 51.09 76
Cordrea Tankersley CB Clemson 51.00 77
Kevin King CB Washington 50.88 78
Dalvin Tomlinson DT Alabama 50.84 79
Samaje Perine* RB Oklahoma 50.71 80
Chris Godwin* WR Penn State 50.63 81
Duke Riley OLB LSU 50.63 82
Jaleel Johnson DT Iowa 50.62 83
Taywan Taylor WR Western Kentucky 50.55 84
Dorian Johnson OG Pittsburgh 50.19 85
Nathan Peterman QB Pittsburgh 49.31 86
Isaiah Ford* WR Virginia Tech 49.19 87
Josh Jones* S North Carolina State 49.04 88
Carlos Watkins DT Clemson 48.73 89
ArDarius Stewart* WR Alabama 48.01 90
Amara Darboh WR Michigan 48.00 91
Carlos Henderson* WR Louisiana Tech 47.94 92
Roderick Johnson* OT Florida State 47.76 93
Alex Anzalone* ILB Florida 47.57 94
Kareem Hunt RB Toledo 47.04 95
Fabian Moreau CB UCLA 46.91 96
Marlon Mack* RB South Florida 46.84 97
Jordan Leggett TE Clemson 46.11 98
Elijah Qualls* DT Washington 45.74 99
Brad Kaaya* QB Miami (FL) 45.50 100
Montravius Adams DT Auburn 45.16 101
Adam Shaheen TE Ashland 44.92 102
Dede Westbrook WR Oklahoma 44.89 103
Wayne Gallman* RB Clemson 44.89 104
Tanoh Kpassagnon DT Villanova 44.70 105
Kendell Beckwith ILB LSU 44.61 106
Damontae Kazee CB San Diego State 44.22 107
Rasul Douglas CB West Virginia 44.16 108
John Johnson S Boston College 43.83 109
Tarell Basham DE Ohio 43.83 110
Larry Ogunjobi DT Charlotte 43.64 111
Nico Siragusa OG San Diego State 43.58 112
Malachi Dupre* WR LSU 43.48 113
Davis Webb QB California 43.05 114
Anthony Walker Jr.* ILB Northwestern 42.49 115
Vince Biegel OLB Wisconsin 41.99 116
Jeremy Sprinkle TE Arkansas 41.89 117
Jeremy McNichols RB Boise State 41.84 118
Eddie Jackson S Alabama 40.72 119
Howard Wilson* CB Houston 40.17 120
Adam Bisnowaty OG Pittsburgh 40.15 121
Zach Banner OT USC 39.93 122
Chad Hansen* WR California 39.48 123
James Conner* RB Pittsburgh 39.05 124
Josh Reynolds WR Texas A&M 38.72 125
Nazair Jones* DT North Carolina 38.55 126
Vincent Taylor* DT Oklahoma State 38.37 127
Daeshon Hall DE Texas A&M 38.23 128
Ryan Glasgow DT Michigan 38.13 129
Noah Brown* WR Ohio State 37.97 130
Tyler Orlosky C West Virginia 37.94 131
Will Holden OT Vanderbilt 37.88 132
Jerod Evans QB Virginia Tech 37.80 133
Isaac Asiata OG Utah 37.63 134
Tedric Thompson S Colorado 37.50 135
Jarron Jones DT Notre Dame 37.35 136
Jamaal Williams RB Brigham Young 36.91 137
Josh Harvey-Clemons S Louisville 36.74 138
Keionta Davis DE Chattanooga 36.58 139
Michael Roberts TE Toledo 36.50 140
Lorenzo Jerome S St. Francis (PA) 36.41 141
Deatrich Wise Jr. DE Arkansas 36.30 142
Eddie Vanderdoes* DT UCLA 36.24 143
Jon Toth C Kentucky 36.14 144
D J (Donnel) Pumphrey RB San Diego State 36.10 145
Jonnu Smith TE Florida International 35.74 146
Tanzel Smart DT Tulane 35.68 147
Delano Hill S Michigan 35.45 148
Jermaine Eluemunor OG Texas A&M 35.27 149
Trey Hendrickson DE Florida Atlantic 35.18 150
Travis Rudolph* WR Florida State 35.16 151
Ben Gedeon ILB Michigan 35.15 152
Matthew Dayes RB North Carolina State 35.12 153
Corn Elder CB Miami (FL) 35.10 154
Mack Hollins WR North Carolina 34.80 155
Brian Hill* RB Wyoming 34.52 156
KD Cannon* WR Baylor 34.17 157
Julie’n Davenport OT Bucknell 34.12 158
Bryan Cox DE Florida 34.09 159
Charles Walker* DT Oklahoma 34.04 160
Josh Carraway OLB TCU 33.98 161
Devonte Fields OLB Louisville 33.97 162
Cole Hikutini TE Louisville 33.97 163
Davon Godchaux* DT LSU 33.74 164
Al-Quadin Muhammad DE Miami (FL) 33.70 165
Chad Wheeler OT USC 33.60 166
Stacy Coley WR Miami (FL) 33.42 167
Shelton Gibson WR West Virginia 33.37 168
David Sharpe* OT Florida 33.26 169
Corey Clement RB Wisconsin 32.91 170
Joshua Dobbs QB Tennessee 32.80 171
Carroll Phillips OLB Illinois 32.74 172
Jehu Chesson WR Michigan 32.68 173
Rayshawn Jenkins S Miami (FL) 31.40 174
JoJo Mathis DE Washington 31.39 175
Ryan Switzer WR North Carolina 31.26 176
Jourdan Lewis CB Michigan 31.19 177
Ejuan Price DE Pittsburgh 31.19 178
Johnathan (Rudy) Ford S Auburn 30.69 179
Marquez White CB Florida State 30.63 180
Shaquill Griffin CB UCF 30.50 181
Damien Mama* OG USC 30.42 182
Jordan Morgan OG Kutztown 30.04 183
Josh Malone* WR Tennessee 29.60 184
Joe Williams RB Utah 29.18 185
Artavis Scott* WR Clemson 28.84 186
Eric Saubert TE Drake 28.71 187
Chad Kelly QB Mississippi 28.70 188
Amba Etta-Tawo WR Syracuse 28.37 189
Nathan Gerry S Nebraska 28.27 190
Zane Gonzalez PK Arizona State 27.68 191
Billy Brown TE Shepherd 27.52 192
Jamari Staples WR Louisville 27.35 193
Danny Isidora OG Miami (FL) 27.28 194
Jalen Reeves-Maybin OLB Tennessee 27.11 195
Stevie Tu’Ikolovatu DT USC 27.10 196
Channing Stribling CB Michigan 26.78 197
Kyle Fuller C Baylor 26.68 198
Elijah Lee* OLB Kansas State 26.49 199
Ben Boulware ILB Clemson 25.87 200
Elijah Mcguire RB Louisiana-Lafayette 25.65 201
Tarik Cohen RB North Carolina A&T 25.15 202
George Kittle TE Iowa 25.08 203
Ishmael Zamora WR Baylor 25.07 204
Conor McDermott OT UCLA 24.87 205
Matt Milano OLB Boston College 24.84 206
Travin Dural WR LSU 24.60 207
Ahkello Witherspoon CB Colorado 24.56 208
Kenny Golladay WR Northern Illinois 24.47 209
Erik Magnuson OT Michigan 24.37 210
Jadar Johnson S Clemson 24.09 211
Elijah Hood RB North Carolina 24.06 212
Austin Rehkow PT Idaho 23.84 213
D J Jones DT Mississippi 23.79 214
Jessamen Dunker OG Tennessee State 23.39 215
Isaiah McKenzie* WR Georgia 23.30 216
Gabe Marks WR Washington State 23.25 217
Jeremiah Ledbetter DE Arkansas 23.22 218
Dan Skipper OT Arkansas 23.10 219
Hunter Dimick DT Utah 23.09 220
Ashton Lampkin CB Oklahoma State 23.05 221
Marquel Lee OLB Wake Forest 22.95 222
Isaac Rochell DE Notre Dame 22.90 223
Sam Rogers FB Virginia Tech 22.89 224
Jalen Robinette WR Air Force 22.88 225
Nate Hairston CB Temple 22.85 226
Trent Taylor WR Louisiana Tech 22.80 227
T J Logan RB North Carolina 22.75 228
Avery Gennesy OT Texas A&M 22.49 229
Ricky Seals-Jones* WR Texas A&M 22.31 230
Darreus Rogers WR USC 22.30 231
Speedy Noil* WR Texas A&M 22.10 232
Cooper Rush QB Central Michigan 21.99 233
Dare Ogunbowale RB Wisconsin 21.86 234
Brendan Langley CB Lamar 21.80 235
Damore’ea Stringfellow* WR Mississippi 21.76 236
Connor Harris ILB Lindenwood 21.75 237
J J Dielman C Utah 21.73 238
Jake Elliott PK Memphis 21.24 239
Tashawn Bower OLB LSU 20.97 240
Jerome Lane WR Akron 20.95 241
De’Veon Smith RB Michigan 20.52 242
Garrett Sickels* DE Penn State 20.48 243
Bug Howard WR North Carolina 19.89 244
C.J. Beathard QB Iowa 19.84 245
Fred Ross WR Mississippi State 19.63 246
Paul Magloire Jr. OLB Arizona 19.02 247
Scott Orndoff TE Pittsburgh 18.83 248
Justin Senior OT Mississippi State 18.71 249
Corey Levin OG Chattanooga 18.56 250
Robert Davis WR Georgia St 18.40 251
Sefo Liufau QB Colorado 18.15 252
Alek Torgensen QB Pennsylvania 17.87 253
Justin Vogel PT Miami (FL) 17.86 254
Chase Roullier C Wyoming 17.85 255
Hardy Nickerson ILB Illinois 17.43 256
Aviante Collins OT TCU 17.39 257
Dylan Donahue DE West Georgia 17.36 258
Montae Nicholson* S Michigan State 17.14 259
Collin Buchanan OT Miami (OH) 17.13 260
James Quick WR Louisville 16.51 261
Blake Jarwin TE Oklahoma State 16.41 262
DeAngelo Brown DT Louisville 16.16 263
Jeremy Clark CB Michigan 16.01 264
Dylan Cole ILB Missouri State 15.99 265
Devine Redding RB Indiana 15.92 266
Seth Russell QB Baylor 15.90 267
Keith Kelsey ILB Louisville 15.83 268
Storm Norton OT Toledo 15.80 269
Aaron Jones RB UTEP 15.70 270
Fadol Brown DE Mississippi 15.69 271
Blair Brown ILB Ohio 15.48 272
Quincy Adeboyejo WR Mississippi 15.46 273
Pharaoh Brown TE Oregon 15.26 274
Jimmie Gilbert DE Colorado 15.17 275
Riley Bullough ILB Michigan State 15.13 276
Jordan Sterns S Oklahoma State 15.12 277
Krishawn Hogan WR Marian College 14.99 278
Brian Allen CB Utah 14.87 279
Hayden Plinke TE UTEP 14.74 280
Noble Nwachukwu DE West Virginia 14.56 281
Stantley (Boom) Williams RB Kentucky 14.28 282
Brooks Ellis ILB Arkansas 14.17 283
Noel Thomas WR Connecticut 14.14 284
Ken Ekanem DE Virginia Tech 14.14 285
Ben Braden OG Michigan 14.09 286
Rushel Shell RB West Virginia 13.98 287
Jahad Thomas RB Temple 13.74 288
Fish Smithson S Kansas 13.71 289
De’Angelo Henderson RB Coastal Carolina 13.40 290
Pita Taumoepenu DE Utah 13.16 291
Treston Decoud CB Oregon State 12.99 292
Kermit Whitfield WR Florida State 12.96 293
Jalen Myrick CB Minnesota 12.88 294
Cameron Lee OG Illinois State 12.86 295
Xavier Woods S Louisiana Tech 12.76 296
Chuck Clark S Virginia Tech 12.58 297
Darrell Daniels TE Washington 12.28 298
Jerry Ugokwe OT William & Mary 12.26 299
Freddie Stevenson FB Florida State 12.25 300
Antonio Pipkin QB Tiffin 12.09 301
Cameron Tom C Southern Miss 11.99 302
Ifeadi Odenigbo DE Northwestern 11.55 303
Sean Harlow OT Oregon State 11.51 304
Kyle Kalis OG Michigan 11.18 305
Sam Tevi OT Utah 10.90 306
Sojourn Shelton CB Wisconsin 10.67 307
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12 comments
  1. hagrin said:

    Hmm, trying again because it looks like my comment didn’t post the first time.

    As I tweeted, this is my favorite post all year of yours. Not many people are publicly posting full draft prospect ratings so these are way fun to examine. You do a great job with these as always. Seriously, this is awesome has helped me fine tune my ratings / process.

    Ok, i finally normalized my rating system against yours and here are some of the larger differences –

    1) RBs – I have Fournette much, much lower than you do while I have McCaffrey much higher than you do. I think this is due to the fact that I am less aggressive in adjusting for height / weight than most models at the RB position and is a factor I have adjusted down since last year w/ the theory that there’s diminishing returns on size for 2 down backs in today’s NFL. I modeled a below average 3 cone time for him b/c he looks a little stiff to me in the lower half. McCaffrey’s 3 cone is elite and fits more the modern NFL offensive systems. I also have McCaffrey ahead of Cook and clearly ahead of Cook.

    Prediction – McCaffrey gets drafted before Cook w/ McCaffrey turning into an elite NFL pass catching RB. Fournette’s success will be entirely system / line / scheme dependent (think Melvin Gordon before they drafted his college FB and then after). I’d be shocked if McCaffrey gets beyond the Colts at 15.

    1b) RBs – I have Mixon rated way ahead of Kamara. I know by looking at our 2016 disagreements that this a common theme where off the field issues tend to give us the biggest disagreements. Kamara’s lack of a real workload and lack of elite top end speed + all the other baggage he has gave him a far lower rating than you have him.

    Prediction – Unless he goes to a really great situation, I have Kamara with the highest bust potential percentage of the top RBs.

    2) OL – This is the worst group of OL ratings I’ve had since I started doing this 4 years ago. Small sample, but the ratings are much lower than in prior years. I have Cam Robinson with a high second round grade, not a first round grade where he will most likely get drafted.

    3) QBs – Biggest discrepancy I have is Josh Dobbs way higher than you and ahead of David Webb. In fact, you can basically flip their ratings for me (Webb slightly higher than the 32 you have Dobbs at). The one thing I think you and I are on Agreement Island with is Mahomes over Kizer. When the first mocks came out that had Kizer going Top 6, I thought they were insane. Sometimes, it feels like people who rate Kizer as an elite QB only watched the Texas game and that’s it. I have Kizer with a mid second round rating. I agree with you on Watson – he’s going to have issues stretching the field with his arm at the NFL level.

    Prediction – I think Mahomes goes before Kizer, but the hype train is speeding out of control. Mahomes is a 1-2 year project – incredible arm talent, everything else is pretty broken and that’s not even considering the Air Raid stigma. Of all the QBs outside the Top 4, I’ll gamble that Dobbs ends up the best of the bunch.

    4) WRs – Biggest discrepancy I have is I have a much, much higher rating on Chad Hansen (Cal) than you, almost a full round higher. Good size, great cone drill, great vert, decent enough 40 and a highlight reel that goes on for days (can win at the point of attack even without separation). I’m a tick lower ratings wise on Corey Davis than most because when adjusting for strength of competition he doesn’t rate well, but I’m going to guess I’ll be wrong about Davis’ production in the NFL (but I do have him rated lower). I don’t love this WR class and ratings reflect that overall – most of my ratings are lower across the board on the top WR prospects.

    Bold Prediction – The WR that has the best career from this draft class isn’t from the 1st round.

    • Hmm, trying again because it looks like my comment didn’t post the first time.
      As I tweeted, this is my favorite post all year of yours. Not many people are publicly posting full draft prospect ratings so these are way fun to examine. You do a great job with these as always. Seriously, this is awesome has helped me fine tune my ratings / process.
      -Thank you. I am honored. I loathe draft guides that only say 2-3rd round. The fact is, they have to have internal numbers to differentiate the players, but decline to produce them.
      Ok, I finally normalized my rating system against yours and here are some of the larger differences –
      1) RBs – I have Fournette much, much lower than you do while I have McCaffrey much higher than you do. I think this is due to the fact that I am less aggressive in adjusting for height / weight than most models at the RB position and is a factor I have adjusted down since last year w/ the theory that there’s diminishing returns on size for 2 down backs in today’s NFL. I modeled a below average 3 cone time for him b/c he looks a little stiff to me in the lower half. McCaffrey’s 3 cone is elite and fits more the modern NFL offensive systems. I also have McCaffrey ahead of Cook and clearly ahead of Cook.
      -Fournette causes cognitive dissonance for me. I see his speed and power and imagine the possibilities. Then I remember his lack of initial quickness and his lack of usefulness in the passing game. I’m not going to call him a trap like Watson, but I don’t think he’s a key part of a healthy breakfast.
      -McCaffrey is a different issue. I actually like him quite a bit, but I’m concerned about his power. He has elite agility, but not elite speed. I wonder if he is going to end up being a slash (RB/WR). Also, his combine numbers are a bit less impressive due to his size. I get what you are saying, but it matters given the amount of wear and tear on him already (600+ touches in the past two seasons).
      -Cook has a few issues. First, there is the off-field stuff. NFL teams have way more background on him than I do, so I’ll just trust them there. Then there are the drops and fumbles, which might be an issue, or might be correctable with better coaching and technique. However, when I watched him against elite competition, he generally made them look bad. That’s predictive of his success at the next level.
      Prediction – McCaffrey gets drafted before Cook w/ McCaffrey turning into an elite NFL pass catching RB. Fournette’s success will be entirely system / line / scheme dependent (think Melvin Gordon before they drafted his college FB and then after). I’d be shocked if McCaffrey gets beyond the Colts at 15.
      -Cook is a lot more likely to get a coach fired than McCaffrey, so you may end up being proven right about draft order.
      1b) RBs – I have Mixon rated way ahead of Kamara. I know by looking at our 2016 disagreements that this a common theme where off the field issues tend to give us the biggest disagreements. Kamara’s lack of a real workload and lack of elite top end speed + all the other baggage he has gave him a far lower rating than you have him.
      Prediction – Unless he goes to a really great situation, I have Kamara with the highest bust potential percentage of the top Rbs.
      -I’m not going to the mattresses for Kamara. In fact, why are we spending so much time talking about running backs anyway? Would teams be worse off if they replaced them with 280 pound fullbacks who are trained to kill blitzers on sight? I mean, bad teams need to run the ball because their quarterbacks suck, but good teams might be better off protecting the QB and throwing it on every fucking down. Short yardage excepted.
      2) OL – This is the worst group of OL ratings I’ve had since I started doing this 4 years ago. Small sample, but the ratings are much lower than in prior years. I have Cam Robinson with a high second round grade, not a first round grade where he will most likely get drafted.
      -I’m definitely higher on Cam than you (and yeah, hard for him to fall out of the first round). I am just concerned about the Alabama tax (he’s almost as good as he’s going to get). And yes, this is a brutal OL class. Forrest Lamp making a successful jump to center is the only potential light in the tunnel.
      3) QBs – Biggest discrepancy I have is Josh Dobbs way higher than you and ahead of David Webb. In fact, you can basically flip their ratings for me (Webb slightly higher than the 32 you have Dobbs at). The one thing I think you and I are on Agreement Island with is Mahomes over Kizer. When the first mocks came out that had Kizer going Top 6, I thought they were insane. Sometimes, it feels like people who rate Kizer as an elite QB only watched the Texas game and that’s it. I have Kizer with a mid second round rating. I agree with you on Watson – he’s going to have issues stretching the field with his arm at the NFL level.
      -Everyone loves Dobbs as a person, but the film isn’t kind to him. I don’t hate Kizer, but Mahomes has a higher ceiling. As for Watson, I feel awful given how fun he was in college, but I actually timed some of his passes and estimated whether or not an NFL cornerback would let him make that throw. It wasn’t good. 😦
      -Rumors are swirling about teams trading up for Trubisky. This is a thirsty fucking league, so I just hope the Jets are the team that trades down.
      Prediction – I think Mahomes goes before Kizer, but the hype train is speeding out of control. Mahomes is a 1-2 year project – incredible arm talent, everything else is pretty broken and that’s not even considering the Air Raid stigma. Of all the QBs outside the Top 4, I’ll gamble that Dobbs ends up the best of the bunch.
      -If I wanted to call someone out of the top 4 making a leap… Nah. Weak QB class. Webb vs. Dobbs may be a fair fight though.
      4) WRs – Biggest discrepancy I have is I have a much, much higher rating on Chad Hansen (Cal) than you, almost a full round higher. Good size, great cone drill, great vert, decent enough 40 and a highlight reel that goes on for days (can win at the point of attack even without separation). I’m a tick lower ratings wise on Corey Davis than most because when adjusting for strength of competition he doesn’t rate well, but I’m going to guess I’ll be wrong about Davis’ production in the NFL (but I do have him rated lower). I don’t love this WR class and ratings reflect that overall – most of my ratings are lower across the board on the top WR prospects.
      -Daniel Parlegreco loves Hansen. You guys might be right. As for Davis, the film loved him. Might be poor competition, but he moved beautifully. Gun to head, I have to gamble on a single WR… John Ross.
      Bold Prediction – The WR that has the best career from this draft class isn’t from the 1st round.
      -Jury is still out on 2016. I’d go with Alshon Jeffery from 2012, so it happens from time to time.

      Also, it’s unreal how much more talent there is on defense in the draft this year.

      • hagrin said:

        Agreed on almost all of the points in your comment and you definitely raise some issues that I’m struggling accounting for in modeling draft ratings.

        “-McCaffrey is a different issue. I actually like him quite a bit, but I’m concerned about his power. He has elite agility, but not elite speed. I wonder if he is going to end up being a slash (RB/WR). Also, his combine numbers are a bit less impressive due to his size. I get what you are saying, but it matters given the amount of wear and tear on him already (600+ touches in the past two seasons).”

        – This makes sense why we differ so much since, as I mentioned prior, I don’t adjust Combine numbers with RB size as much as I have in the past with the nexus of that theory of a changing required NFL RB workload. You make very, very good points though and I’ll definitely have to see if my approach produces worse results (although very noisy trying to fit results on such unique talents). I actually agree with you – I think McCaffrey ends up as a RB/WR combo being an impossible cover for LBers from the slot. Still feel confident he doesn’t get beyond the Colts at 15.

        Fournette – Carolina as the perfect fit for him?

        “Forrest Lamp making a successful jump to center is the only potential light in the tunnel.”

        – You seem to be on to something here, my rating isn’t as high as yours, but the prevailing draft #exprets out there definitely agree with you. I’ll have to see why I’m missing on him, it’s not clear after looking at the data that drives his rating at first glance. Good call.

        “-Everyone loves Dobbs as a person, but the film isn’t kind to him. I don’t hate Kizer, but Mahomes has a higher ceiling. As for Watson, I feel awful given how fun he was in college, but I actually timed some of his passes and estimated whether or not an NFL cornerback would let him make that throw. It wasn’t good. ”

        – So, this is the only one I’m going to stick to my evaluation and say we’re just going to disagree. I actually think the tape is much better than the stat line. Pro style offense, threw receivers open, very intelligent, probably the best athlete of the top 10 QBs (edges out Watson in almost every Combine drill), good enough completion percentage and a stout YPA which gets adjusted upwards since he ran a pro style offense. I think the big thing driving my evaluation is I had Tennessee with one of the worst pass blocking Olines of top programs (the Bama game? Ohhh boy). Counterpoints? The “bad Oline” theory caused some people to grossly overrate Hackenberg (ugh). Maybe I have some bias stemming from Dak’s success last year and I’m making a subconscious comparison? Hopefully, he lands in a good situation.

        Mahomes has A+ arm talent, but he’s a gigantic project. His completion percentage is #FakeNews and he misses a ton of easy throws and has awful mechanics. The perfect fit for him? Kansas City with Andy Reid or maybe Arizona. Huge upside, but he needs a lot of coaching. I agree with you on Trubisky – outside of Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers, I don’t really see a good fit for him and I can see him having a really rough transition.

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