WAB 3/10: The Bubble Gets Tougher

Despite what you may hear, the bubble is actually unusually deep this year. That’s subject to change with the results from the next few days, but right now it’s as deep as it has even been in the 68 team era.

Kansas losing has opened the door for Villanova to steal the regular season WAB crown with a Big East Tournament win. It strikes me as fitting as the top 3 teams are last season’s WAB Champion (Kansas), and the two finalists from last season’s championship game. Baylor lost as well, which likely ends their chances of grabbing a 1-seed.

Duke may end up playing their way onto the two line if they beat North Carolina and win the ACC Tournament over FSU or Notre Dame. Like yesterday, today is filled with excellent games. Duke-UNC, UCLA-Arizona, Michigan-Purdue, and Vanderbilt-Florida are just a few I’d recommend.

Full WAB’s are available here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hof8DT8OCt_9A-f93NnXnSfMdp97B1qvmQ8Hw_X3X8Y/edit#gid=0

WAB Rank School WAB Bubble Percentile Pythag
1 Kansas 10.74 100.00% 0.9483
2 Villanova 9.92 100.00% 0.9675
3 North Carolina 8.34 99.97% 0.9632
4 Baylor 7.79 99.94% 0.9369
5 Gonzaga 7.61 100.00% 0.9718
6 Kentucky 7.32 99.93% 0.9509
7 UCLA 6.71 99.94% 0.9328
8 Louisville 6.79 99.76% 0.952
9 Duke 6.91 99.84% 0.9429
10 Arizona 6.33 99.81% 0.922
11 Florida 6.34 99.58% 0.9555
12 West Virginia 5.97 99.54% 0.9581
13 Oregon 5.91 99.61% 0.9406
14 Purdue 5.67 99.33% 0.9408
15 Florida St. 6.14 99.59% 0.9288
16 Butler 5.31 98.49% 0.9092
17 Notre Dame 5.55 99.19% 0.9179
18 Iowa St. 4.93 98.07% 0.9208
19 Cincinnati 4.75 98.88% 0.9275
20 SMU 4.61 98.40% 0.9366
21 Virginia 4.85 97.64% 0.9515
22 Wisconsin 4.17 96.26% 0.9175
23 Maryland 3.90 95.20% 0.8504
24 Saint Mary’s 3.77 97.46% 0.9321
25 Wichita St. 3.66 95.67% 0.9471
26 Creighton 3.63 93.66% 0.8999
27 Minnesota 3.37 92.39% 0.8677
28 Oklahoma St. 3.26 91.32% 0.9132
29 Virginia Tech 3.12 91.17% 0.8406
30 Arkansas 2.84 89.62% 0.8482
31 Miami FL 2.84 89.12% 0.8748
32 Seton Hall 2.47 85.27% 0.8286
33 Xavier 1.97 78.53% 0.8533
34 South Carolina 2.12 81.08% 0.874
35 Dayton 1.95 80.84% 0.8596
36 Kansas St. 1.82 78.13% 0.872
37 Northwestern 1.70 76.05% 0.8585
38 Michigan 1.67 75.21% 0.9143
39 Illinois St. 1.54 75.93% 0.8198
40 Middle Tennessee 1.48 76.22% 0.8155
41 UNC Wilmington 1.41 73.51% 0.779
42 USC 1.32 71.85% 0.8011
43 VCU 1.23 69.76% 0.8321
44 Wake Forest 1.10 67.51% 0.8674
45 Michigan St. 0.73 61.92% 0.8536
46 Nevada 0.61 59.69% 0.8104
47 Providence 0.48 57.84% 0.8118
48 Vermont 0.38 56.62% 0.7892
49 TCU 0.39 56.59% 0.86
50 Marquette 0.39 56.44% 0.8723
51 Monmouth 0.22 53.02% 0.7169
52 Georgia -0.08 48.54% 0.8035
53 UT Arlington -0.52 38.72% 0.7502
54 Vanderbilt -0.58 40.65% 0.8642
55 California -0.64 38.44% 0.8065
56 Rhode Island -0.65 37.74% 0.8275
57 Houston -0.72 36.32% 0.8416
58 East Tennessee St. -1.03 30.17% 0.7549
59 Clemson -0.68 39.02% 0.8585
60 Belmont -0.96 28.65% 0.6935
61 Princeton -0.93 30.17% 0.7801
62 Akron -1.26 24.98% 0.6806
63 Indiana -0.95 34.21% 0.8607
64 Mississippi -1.05 32.43% 0.7475
65 Texas Tech -1.24 29.19% 0.8412
66 New Mexico St. -1.44 19.74% 0.6557
67 Winthrop -1.62 16.59% 0.6255
68 Syracuse -1.26 29.51% 0.8412
69 Illinois -1.57 25.81% 0.7746
70 Florida Gulf Coast -1.67 16.94% 0.6409
71 Iowa -1.75 22.88% 0.766
72 Valparaiso -2.14 13.16% 0.6552
73 UCF -2.15 15.42% 0.7436
74 Bucknell -2.46 10.22% 0.7169
75 Utah -2.30 14.24% 0.8281
76 College of Charleston -2.38 13.39% 0.6743
77 Pittsburgh -2.03 20.27% 0.7585
78 Georgia Tech -2.18 17.37% 0.7175
79 Alabama -2.45 14.92% 0.8123
80 BYU -2.61 10.79% 0.7479
81 Auburn -2.75 12.57% 0.7152
82 UNC Greensboro -2.91 8.15% 0.574
83 Tennessee -2.70 12.89% 0.7882
84 Ohio St. -3.16 9.09% 0.766
85 Texas A&M -3.13 8.45% 0.771
86 Colorado St. -3.20 6.96% 0.6995
87 Memphis -3.40 6.00% 0.6925
88 Cal St. Bakersfield -3.35 2.90% 0.6196
89 Richmond -3.47 6.27% 0.6991
90 UNC Asheville -3.57 3.04% 0.6335
91 Oakland -3.69 2.73% 0.6259
92 Boise St. -3.65 5.00% 0.6651
93 Colorado -3.79 5.19% 0.7507
94 Grand Canyon -3.75 1.81% 0.4906
95 Fresno St. -3.99 3.16% 0.6681
96 St. Bonaventure -4.07 2.98% 0.71
97 Louisiana Tech -4.18 1.39% 0.7016
98 Harvard -4.38 1.10% 0.6356
99 Texas Southern -4.51 0.51% 0.4097
100 Northern Kentucky -5.02 0.66% 0.5254
101 San Francisco -4.56 1.32% 0.6377
102 Georgetown -4.62 2.81% 0.7816
103 North Carolina St. -4.23 3.32% 0.6704
104 Oklahoma -4.67 2.35% 0.7817
105 George Washington -4.59 2.47% 0.6083
106 Yale -4.72 0.70% 0.5375
107 George Mason -4.75 1.80% 0.6323
108 Ohio -5.28 0.58% 0.6569
109 Penn St. -5.01 2.32% 0.7152
110 Furman -5.17 0.72% 0.6289
111 North Carolina Central -5.44 0.05% 0.4646
112 Stanford -5.13 1.24% 0.6505
113 Eastern Washington -5.24 0.32% 0.4738
114 Davidson -5.34 0.99% 0.7216
115 St. John’s -5.40 1.29% 0.6782
116 Georgia St. -5.39 0.44% 0.5872
117 Nebraska -5.52 1.21% 0.654
118 South Dakota -5.74 0.30% 0.5317
119 Louisiana Lafayette -5.75 0.30% 0.5718
120 Mississippi St. -5.90 0.67% 0.6923
121 North Dakota -5.84 0.08% 0.4979
122 Chattanooga -5.86 0.25% 0.5725
123 Texas -5.85 0.86% 0.7772
124 North Dakota St. -6.00 0.20% 0.4935
125 Connecticut -5.87 0.49% 0.6887
126 Arkansas St. -5.85 0.33% 0.5597
127 San Diego St. -5.85 0.48% 0.7355
128 Old Dominion -5.97 0.25% 0.5844
129 Ball St. -6.15 0.18% 0.5084
130 Texas A&M Corpus Chris -6.15 0.02% 0.3765
131 Temple -6.01 0.36% 0.6222
132 New Mexico -5.97 0.47% 0.5915
133 Iona -5.95 0.34% 0.5952
134 Rutgers -6.07 0.51% 0.5962
135 Arizona St. -6.33 0.37% 0.5855
136 Rice -6.43 0.08% 0.5159
137 Tulsa -6.42 0.25% 0.5535
138 Albany -6.58 0.05% 0.569
139 New Hampshire -6.58 0.04% 0.4643
140 Lehigh -6.67 0.09% 0.5836
141 Towson -6.65 0.18% 0.6071
142 Fort Wayne -6.85 0.03% 0.5638
143 Wright St. -7.01 0.06% 0.5027
144 New Orleans -6.88 0.01% 0.4161
145 Tennessee Martin -6.89 0.04% 0.3891
146 UC Irvine -6.92 0.04% 0.5782
147 William & Mary -7.07 0.05% 0.563
148 La Salle -7.17 0.09% 0.5554
149 Santa Clara -7.17 0.04% 0.6155
150 Northern Iowa -7.28 0.07% 0.4799
151 Nebraska Omaha -7.34 0.05% 0.4934
152 Georgia Southern -7.37 0.04% 0.5113
153 Loyola Marymount -7.32 0.02% 0.4952
154 Loyola Chicago -7.60 0.03% 0.6651
155 Kent St. -7.67 0.03% 0.5368
156 Tennessee St. -7.36 0.02% 0.4824
157 UMBC -7.69 0.01% 0.4292
158 Southern Illinois -7.62 0.03% 0.5195
159 Washington St. -7.72 0.04% 0.4495
160 Green Bay -7.89 0.01% 0.4608
161 Sam Houston St. -7.84 0.00% 0.3368
162 Marshall -7.63 0.03% 0.5057
163 Saint Peter’s -7.68 0.02% 0.6164
164 Wyoming -7.85 0.03% 0.5175
165 Texas St. -8.04 0.00% 0.4378
166 Elon -8.01 0.01% 0.5429
167 Houston Baptist -8.12 0.00% 0.3548
168 Liberty -8.21 0.00% 0.388
169 Mount St. Mary’s -8.13 0.00% 0.3763
170 Lipscomb -8.16 0.00% 0.5167
171 Buffalo -8.36 0.01% 0.5865
172 UC Davis -8.24 0.00% 0.3758
173 Weber St. -8.26 0.00% 0.482
174 Gardner Webb -8.40 0.00% 0.4865
175 Jacksonville St. -8.36 0.01% 0.501
176 Penn -8.36 0.00% 0.5051
177 Stony Brook -8.47 0.00% 0.3909
178 Samford -8.62 0.00% 0.4976
179 East Carolina -8.62 0.01% 0.4587
180 Idaho -8.66 0.00% 0.3739
181 Missouri St. -8.76 0.01% 0.5824
182 Stephen F. Austin -8.92 0.00% 0.3383
183 Troy -8.93 0.00% 0.5227
184 LIU Brooklyn -8.94 0.00% 0.2988
185 Evansville -9.18 0.00% 0.5215
186 Western Michigan -9.29 0.00% 0.5191
187 Boston University -9.18 0.00% 0.4277
188 Alcorn St. -9.19 0.00% 0.2007
189 LSU -9.06 0.01% 0.4796
190 UMKC -9.09 0.00% 0.347
191 Northeastern -9.20 0.00% 0.5001
192 Fairfield -9.33 0.00% 0.387
193 Canisius -9.43 0.00% 0.4565
194 Denver -9.52 0.00% 0.4396
195 San Jose St. -9.52 0.00% 0.3813
196 UAB -9.50 0.00% 0.4511
197 Utah St. -9.70 0.00% 0.5646
198 Coastal Carolina -9.88 0.00% 0.4258
199 Utah Valley -9.90 0.00% 0.4388
200 Toledo -9.89 0.00% 0.5768
201 South Dakota St. -10.07 0.00% 0.4862
202 Wofford -10.10 0.00% 0.5423
203 San Diego -10.20 0.00% 0.2918
204 Eastern Michigan -10.30 0.00% 0.5326
205 Boston College -9.97 0.00% 0.5393
206 Mercer -10.22 0.00% 0.5465
207 Massachusetts -10.26 0.00% 0.5378
208 Long Beach St. -10.09 0.00% 0.3696
209 Cal St. Fullerton -10.32 0.00% 0.2893
210 Siena -10.25 0.00% 0.5087
211 Rider -10.30 0.00% 0.3859
212 Norfolk St. -10.37 0.00% 0.1898
213 Morehead St. -10.50 0.00% 0.4215
214 Central Michigan -10.79 0.00% 0.3671
215 USC Upstate -10.58 0.00% 0.3397
216 Loyola MD -10.93 0.00% 0.2898
217 Savannah St. -11.24 0.00% 0.1604
218 Washington -10.90 0.00% 0.5118
219 Charlotte -10.91 0.00% 0.3263
220 DePaul -11.06 0.00% 0.4962
221 Montana -11.04 0.00% 0.4401
222 Wagner -10.95 0.00% 0.3164
223 Lamar -11.15 0.00% 0.3342
224 Holy Cross -11.21 0.00% 0.3561
225 Hofstra -11.15 0.00% 0.4645
226 Columbia -11.23 0.00% 0.3492
227 IUPUI -11.38 0.00% 0.4271
228 UTEP -11.27 0.00% 0.4308
229 Saint Joseph’s -11.30 0.00% 0.486
230 Western Kentucky -11.31 0.00% 0.3447
231 High Point -11.48 0.00% 0.2714
232 Bradley -11.45 0.00% 0.388
233 Navy -11.47 0.00% 0.3932
234 Eastern Illinois -11.68 0.00% 0.3581
235 Jacksonville -11.86 0.00% 0.265
236 Fordham -11.73 0.00% 0.4331
237 Radford -11.82 0.00% 0.2109
238 Brown -11.91 0.00% 0.2659
239 Northern Illinois -12.15 0.00% 0.4065
240 Indiana St. -12.14 0.00% 0.4435
241 Little Rock -12.11 0.00% 0.3411
242 St. Francis PA -12.11 0.00% 0.285
243 Hawaii -12.04 0.00% 0.3015
244 Montana St. -12.25 0.00% 0.3196
245 Southeastern Louisiana -12.30 0.00% 0.3089
246 Nicholls St. -12.30 0.00% 0.1586
247 North Florida -12.33 0.00% 0.3176
248 Northwestern St. -12.46 0.00% 0.2056
249 Hampton -12.74 0.00% 0.1717
250 Murray St. -12.32 0.00% 0.4202
251 Grambling St. -12.71 0.00% 0.1274
252 Seattle -12.49 0.00% 0.2524
253 Portland St. -12.53 0.00% 0.3224
254 Saint Louis -12.64 0.00% 0.281
255 Bowling Green -13.05 0.00% 0.3239
256 Campbell -12.86 0.00% 0.2464
257 Abilene Christian -12.95 0.00% 0.1848
258 Northern Colorado -12.89 0.00% 0.2427
259 Missouri -12.95 0.00% 0.5199
260 Pacific -12.85 0.00% 0.3534
261 Morgan St. -13.21 0.00% 0.1356
262 South Alabama -13.05 0.00% 0.3233
263 UNLV -13.06 0.00% 0.3189
264 South Carolina St. -13.46 0.00% 0.1012
265 Maryland Eastern Shore -13.37 0.00% 0.1655
266 Southeast Missouri St. -13.21 0.00% 0.3253
267 Kennesaw St. -13.17 0.00% 0.2976
268 Illinois Chicago -13.59 0.00% 0.32
269 Eastern Kentucky -13.47 0.00% 0.2646
270 Portland -13.38 0.00% 0.273
271 Incarnate Word -13.46 0.00% 0.1822
272 Southern -13.65 0.00% 0.1581
273 Robert Morris -13.62 0.00% 0.2624
274 Delaware -13.82 0.00% 0.2246
275 Austin Peay -13.84 0.00% 0.2351
276 Charleston Southern -13.83 0.00% 0.203
277 Army -13.88 0.00% 0.3147
278 UTSA -13.86 0.00% 0.2812
279 Sacramento St. -14.09 0.00% 0.2358
280 Prairie View A&M -14.11 0.00% 0.1642
281 Pepperdine -14.10 0.00% 0.2193
282 Fairleigh Dickinson -14.24 0.00% 0.275
283 Jackson St. -14.62 0.00% 0.1388
284 Cal St. Northridge -14.61 0.00% 0.2573
285 Air Force -14.52 0.00% 0.3584
286 NJIT -14.67 0.00% 0.2436
287 The Citadel -14.87 0.00% 0.2165
288 Tennessee Tech -14.84 0.00% 0.3059
289 Duquesne -14.74 0.00% 0.3768
290 Cornell -14.86 0.00% 0.2775
291 Bryant -14.99 0.00% 0.2508
292 Western Illinois -15.16 0.00% 0.2185
293 Oral Roberts -14.99 0.00% 0.3372
294 Appalachian St. -15.05 0.00% 0.2628
295 Dartmouth -15.08 0.00% 0.2047
296 Florida Atlantic -14.91 0.00% 0.2523
297 South Florida -15.19 0.00% 0.2286
298 Sacred Heart -15.40 0.00% 0.206
299 Cal Poly -15.45 0.00% 0.1952
300 Youngstown St. -15.60 0.00% 0.2435
301 Binghamton -15.48 0.00% 0.1795
302 Cleveland St. -15.78 0.00% 0.304
303 Western Carolina -15.71 0.00% 0.1368
304 Miami OH -15.72 0.00% 0.2556
305 UMass Lowell -15.73 0.00% 0.234
306 Quinnipiac -15.67 0.00% 0.219
307 Tulane -15.79 0.00% 0.3423
308 Manhattan -15.91 0.00% 0.2371
309 Lafayette -16.30 0.00% 0.1357
310 Stetson -16.50 0.00% 0.1645
311 Colgate -16.60 0.00% 0.2704
312 American -16.72 0.00% 0.1968
313 Oregon St. -16.59 0.00% 0.297
314 UC Riverside -16.73 0.00% 0.1914
315 UC Santa Barbara -16.69 0.00% 0.1374
316 Southern Miss -16.81 0.00% 0.1537
317 Detroit -17.23 0.00% 0.2202
318 Drake -17.08 0.00% 0.2835
319 James Madison -17.07 0.00% 0.3662
320 Howard -17.37 0.00% 0.0996
321 Louisiana Monroe -17.20 0.00% 0.2947
322 Delaware St. -17.62 0.00% 0.0968
323 UT Rio Grande Valley -17.31 0.00% 0.1851
324 Drexel -17.41 0.00% 0.3086
325 VMI -17.57 0.00% 0.1445
326 McNeese St. -17.43 0.00% 0.1441
327 North Texas -17.64 0.00% 0.1742
328 Central Arkansas -17.94 0.00% 0.1672
329 Milwaukee -17.96 0.00% 0.2894
330 Niagara -18.03 0.00% 0.2799
331 Marist -18.11 0.00% 0.188
332 Hartford -18.38 0.00% 0.115
333 Mississippi Valley St. -18.39 0.00% 0.0794
334 Bethune Cookman -19.06 0.00% 0.0871
335 Coppin St. -19.01 0.00% 0.0682
336 Maine -18.92 0.00% 0.1025
337 FIU -19.13 0.00% 0.2649
338 Chicago St. -19.21 0.00% 0.0932
339 Alabama St. -19.32 0.00% 0.0811
340 SIU Edwardsville -19.31 0.00% 0.1656
341 Northern Arizona -19.42 0.00% 0.1501
342 Longwood -19.49 0.00% 0.0644
343 Central Connecticut -19.81 0.00% 0.0906
344 Florida A&M -20.47 0.00% 0.0656
345 Idaho St. -20.51 0.00% 0.1211
346 Presbyterian -20.65 0.00% 0.0418
347 Arkansas Pine Bluff -21.35 0.00% 0.051
348 St. Francis NY -22.84 0.00% 0.0627
349 Southern Utah -23.11 0.00% 0.1289
350 Alabama A&M -24.09 0.00% 0.0339
351 North Carolina A&T -25.43 0.00% 0.049

 

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