WAB 3/9: Today is a smorgasbord of great basketball

I just wish Syracuse were a part of it. As far as I can tell, they’ve been shipped to Greensboro, but I’m a bit fuzzy on the details.

Today all of the major conferences kick into gear, so you can pretty much watch whomever you want and see some good basketball. I’ll be rooting hard for Louisville and Marquette.

In other news, ESPN thinks Illinois State is fairly safe, getting in 85.7% of the time:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/on-the-ncaa-bubble-heres-the-number-to-watch/?ex_cid=story-twitter

I suspect they may be omitting some key variables, but we shall see.

Full WAB’s available here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hof8DT8OCt_9A-f93NnXnSfMdp97B1qvmQ8Hw_X3X8Y/edit#gid=0

WAB Rank School WAB Bubble Percentile Pythag
1 Kansas 11.17 100.00% 0.9516
2 Villanova 9.51 100.00% 0.965
3 Baylor 8.09 99.97% 0.9416
4 North Carolina 7.79 99.95% 0.9592
5 Gonzaga 7.56 100.00% 0.9716
6 Kentucky 7.27 99.92% 0.9509
7 Louisville 7.03 99.86% 0.9537
8 UCLA 6.34 99.91% 0.9357
9 Florida 6.28 99.55% 0.9554
10 Duke 6.14 99.62% 0.9408
11 Arizona 5.99 99.74% 0.9192
12 Oregon 5.73 99.56% 0.9377
13 Butler 5.70 99.14% 0.9137
14 Florida St. 5.68 99.37% 0.9278
15 West Virginia 5.62 99.38% 0.9587
16 Purdue 5.60 99.24% 0.9401
17 Virginia 5.20 98.48% 0.9568
18 Notre Dame 4.80 98.25% 0.9074
19 Cincinnati 4.79 98.93% 0.9279
20 SMU 4.62 98.41% 0.9369
21 Iowa St. 4.27 96.67% 0.9163
22 Wisconsin 4.14 96.04% 0.9171
23 Maryland 3.95 95.37% 0.8516
24 Saint Mary’s 3.78 97.48% 0.9324
25 Wichita St. 3.62 95.52% 0.9469
26 Oklahoma St. 3.51 93.25% 0.9165
27 Virginia Tech 3.49 93.87% 0.8381
28 Minnesota 3.33 92.11% 0.8676
29 Creighton 3.22 91.59% 0.895
30 Miami FL 2.97 90.41% 0.8849
31 Arkansas 2.82 89.40% 0.8481
32 South Carolina 2.06 80.38% 0.8732
33 Seton Hall 2.00 80.61% 0.8193
34 Dayton 1.88 79.85% 0.8587
35 USC 1.63 76.87% 0.794
36 Illinois St. 1.51 75.40% 0.8197
37 Northwestern 1.47 73.13% 0.8477
38 Xavier 1.40 71.42% 0.8457
39 Middle Tennessee 1.37 74.58% 0.8137
40 UNC Wilmington 1.34 72.46% 0.7785
41 VCU 1.27 70.49% 0.8332
42 Michigan 1.26 69.97% 0.9063
43 Kansas St. 1.07 67.85% 0.8611
44 Wake Forest 1.04 66.51% 0.8701
45 Providence 0.89 64.70% 0.8213
46 Marquette 0.86 64.16% 0.8784
47 Vermont 0.46 58.36% 0.7918
48 Michigan St. 0.45 57.48% 0.8364
49 Nevada 0.42 56.31% 0.8051
50 Monmouth 0.23 53.21% 0.7174
51 TCU -0.40 43.15% 0.8432
52 Georgia -0.51 41.30% 0.8015
53 UT Arlington -0.60 37.04% 0.7498
54 Rhode Island -0.63 38.01% 0.8286
55 Houston -0.70 36.54% 0.8419
56 Clemson -0.72 38.46% 0.8583
57 Princeton -0.90 30.79% 0.7824
58 Vanderbilt -0.99 34.26% 0.8465
59 Belmont -1.00 27.97% 0.6916
60 East Tennessee St. -1.03 30.15% 0.7554
61 California -1.14 30.00% 0.8056
62 Syracuse -1.18 30.76% 0.8446
63 Mississippi -1.22 29.85% 0.7418
64 Illinois -1.25 29.84% 0.7905
65 Texas Tech -1.30 28.27% 0.8473
66 Indiana -1.33 28.07% 0.8467
67 Iowa -1.33 28.14% 0.7848
68 Akron -1.42 22.22% 0.659
69 New Mexico St. -1.51 18.62% 0.6579
70 Winthrop -1.63 16.35% 0.6264
71 Florida Gulf Coast -1.70 16.59% 0.6403
72 Utah -1.75 19.92% 0.8326
73 UCF -1.87 18.71% 0.7442
74 Pittsburgh -1.94 21.38% 0.762
75 Valparaiso -2.18 12.75% 0.6539
76 Georgia Tech -2.19 17.38% 0.7181
77 Tennessee -2.21 17.14% 0.7863
78 College of Charleston -2.37 13.44% 0.6747
79 Bucknell -2.45 10.45% 0.7126
80 BYU -2.61 10.84% 0.7483
81 Alabama -2.74 11.87% 0.7951
82 Auburn -2.80 12.23% 0.721
83 Texas A&M -2.82 10.26% 0.7955
84 UNC Greensboro -2.91 8.10% 0.5744
85 Boise St. -3.02 7.99% 0.6914
86 Ohio St. -3.16 9.13% 0.776
87 Colorado St. -3.30 6.25% 0.677
88 Memphis -3.31 6.52% 0.695
89 Cal St. Bakersfield -3.36 2.84% 0.619
90 Richmond -3.46 6.39% 0.7
91 UNC Asheville -3.55 3.09% 0.6333
92 Colorado -3.56 5.97% 0.7539
93 Oakland -3.73 2.60% 0.6238
94 Grand Canyon -3.75 1.80% 0.4898
95 North Carolina St. -4.19 3.46% 0.6723
96 Fresno St. -4.22 2.32% 0.6663
97 St. Bonaventure -4.23 2.38% 0.6981
98 Louisiana Tech -4.30 1.07% 0.6911
99 Harvard -4.34 1.18% 0.6367
100 Texas Southern -4.50 0.53% 0.4101
101 Penn St. -4.53 3.33% 0.7343
102 San Francisco -4.57 1.29% 0.6381
103 Georgetown -4.57 2.98% 0.7844
104 George Washington -4.61 2.38% 0.6105
105 Yale -4.65 0.77% 0.5414
106 Oklahoma -4.76 2.14% 0.7885
107 George Mason -4.85 1.53% 0.6238
108 Northern Kentucky -5.01 0.66% 0.5256
109 Old Dominion -5.09 0.70% 0.5927
110 Temple -5.14 0.96% 0.6497
111 Stanford -5.16 1.19% 0.6575
112 Furman -5.19 0.71% 0.628
113 St. John’s -5.21 1.50% 0.6961
114 New Mexico -5.29 0.92% 0.5941
115 Eastern Washington -5.36 0.26% 0.4563
116 Mississippi St. -5.38 1.08% 0.7018
117 Georgia St. -5.38 0.45% 0.5875
118 North Carolina Central -5.45 0.05% 0.4528
119 Davidson -5.50 0.74% 0.7141
120 Ohio -5.50 0.37% 0.6604
121 Rice -5.56 0.24% 0.5368
122 Nebraska -5.56 1.19% 0.6623
123 Rutgers -5.57 0.83% 0.6043
124 South Dakota -5.73 0.31% 0.5319
125 Texas -5.74 0.91% 0.7661
126 Louisiana Lafayette -5.77 0.30% 0.5704
127 Connecticut -5.85 0.49% 0.694
128 North Dakota -5.89 0.06% 0.4716
129 Chattanooga -5.91 0.23% 0.5701
130 Arkansas St. -5.92 0.31% 0.5671
131 Iona -5.97 0.33% 0.5955
132 North Dakota St. -6.04 0.18% 0.4914
133 Texas A&M Corpus Chris -6.11 0.02% 0.3789
134 Arizona St. -6.14 0.43% 0.587
135 San Diego St. -6.15 0.28% 0.7136
136 Ball St. -6.33 0.12% 0.5055
137 La Salle -6.47 0.20% 0.5651
138 New Hampshire -6.51 0.05% 0.4674
139 Tulsa -6.52 0.19% 0.5502
140 Albany -6.53 0.05% 0.5712
141 Lehigh -6.65 0.10% 0.5926
142 Towson -6.65 0.18% 0.6084
143 Tennessee Martin -6.89 0.04% 0.3895
144 Fort Wayne -6.90 0.03% 0.5617
145 New Orleans -6.91 0.01% 0.416
146 Wright St. -7.02 0.06% 0.502
147 UC Irvine -7.02 0.03% 0.5786
148 William & Mary -7.05 0.05% 0.5634
149 Santa Clara -7.21 0.04% 0.6139
150 Houston Baptist -7.21 0.01% 0.3669
151 Northern Iowa -7.29 0.07% 0.4789
152 Loyola Marymount -7.32 0.02% 0.497
153 Nebraska Omaha -7.33 0.05% 0.493
154 Georgia Southern -7.40 0.04% 0.5102
155 Tennessee St. -7.41 0.01% 0.481
156 Buffalo -7.62 0.02% 0.5921
157 Loyola Chicago -7.63 0.03% 0.664
158 Southern Illinois -7.63 0.03% 0.5185
159 UMBC -7.68 0.01% 0.4307
160 Saint Peter’s -7.68 0.02% 0.6169
161 Washington St. -7.76 0.04% 0.4518
162 Marshall -7.84 0.01% 0.4947
163 Wyoming -7.88 0.03% 0.5368
164 Green Bay -7.91 0.01% 0.4598
165 Kent St. -7.92 0.02% 0.526
166 Sam Houston St. -7.92 0.00% 0.3272
167 Elon -8.01 0.01% 0.5433
168 Texas St. -8.04 0.00% 0.4377
169 Lipscomb -8.16 0.00% 0.5173
170 Mount St. Mary’s -8.16 0.00% 0.3776
171 Liberty -8.22 0.00% 0.3869
172 UC Davis -8.29 0.00% 0.3648
173 Penn -8.31 0.00% 0.5078
174 Weber St. -8.31 0.00% 0.4681
175 Gardner Webb -8.39 0.00% 0.487
176 Jacksonville St. -8.42 0.01% 0.4992
177 Stony Brook -8.44 0.00% 0.3933
178 Western Michigan -8.46 0.01% 0.5237
179 Samford -8.62 0.00% 0.4969
180 Missouri St. -8.78 0.01% 0.5816
181 East Carolina -8.79 0.00% 0.4281
182 Idaho -8.81 0.00% 0.3604
183 UAB -8.84 0.00% 0.4625
184 Troy -8.90 0.00% 0.5149
185 LIU Brooklyn -8.92 0.00% 0.2997
186 Stephen F. Austin -8.98 0.00% 0.3117
187 LSU -9.04 0.01% 0.4961
188 Boston University -9.15 0.00% 0.4296
189 Toledo -9.16 0.00% 0.5735
190 Utah St. -9.16 0.00% 0.5593
191 Evansville -9.17 0.00% 0.5222
192 UMKC -9.21 0.00% 0.3528
193 Northeastern -9.22 0.00% 0.4991
194 Alcorn St. -9.23 0.00% 0.1999
195 Fairfield -9.32 0.00% 0.3874
196 Canisius -9.43 0.00% 0.4569
197 Denver -9.48 0.00% 0.4407
198 San Jose St. -9.55 0.00% 0.3943
199 Massachusetts -9.56 0.00% 0.5483
200 Eastern Michigan -9.61 0.00% 0.555
201 Coastal Carolina -9.89 0.00% 0.4208
202 Boston College -9.97 0.00% 0.5394
203 South Dakota St. -10.07 0.00% 0.4867
204 Utah Valley -10.10 0.00% 0.4251
205 Wofford -10.11 0.00% 0.5412
206 Long Beach St. -10.16 0.00% 0.351
207 Montana -10.16 0.00% 0.4507
208 San Diego -10.23 0.00% 0.2915
209 Siena -10.24 0.00% 0.5099
210 Lamar -10.25 0.00% 0.352
211 Mercer -10.26 0.00% 0.5445
212 Rider -10.27 0.00% 0.3869
213 Cal St. Fullerton -10.38 0.00% 0.2743
214 Norfolk St. -10.39 0.00% 0.1909
215 Morehead St. -10.51 0.00% 0.4209
216 USC Upstate -10.59 0.00% 0.339
217 Central Michigan -10.78 0.00% 0.3666
218 Wagner -10.91 0.00% 0.3191
219 Charlotte -10.91 0.00% 0.3241
220 Loyola MD -10.95 0.00% 0.2909
221 Fordham -10.95 0.00% 0.4435
222 Washington -10.97 0.00% 0.5056
223 DePaul -11.04 0.00% 0.4967
224 Hofstra -11.15 0.00% 0.4647
225 Hawaii -11.19 0.00% 0.3227
226 Holy Cross -11.19 0.00% 0.3571
227 Columbia -11.20 0.00% 0.3511
228 Savannah St. -11.27 0.00% 0.1603
229 Saint Joseph’s -11.28 0.00% 0.492
230 Western Kentucky -11.33 0.00% 0.3492
231 IUPUI -11.38 0.00% 0.4282
232 UTEP -11.41 0.00% 0.409
233 Navy -11.46 0.00% 0.3939
234 Bradley -11.51 0.00% 0.3849
235 High Point -11.51 0.00% 0.2713
236 Seattle -11.67 0.00% 0.262
237 Eastern Illinois -11.69 0.00% 0.3574
238 Portland St. -11.72 0.00% 0.3439
239 Hampton -11.81 0.00% 0.1763
240 Radford -11.85 0.00% 0.2108
241 Jacksonville -11.86 0.00% 0.2651
242 Brown -11.87 0.00% 0.2679
243 Saint Louis -11.93 0.00% 0.2807
244 St. Francis PA -12.06 0.00% 0.2872
245 Northern Illinois -12.12 0.00% 0.4086
246 Little Rock -12.13 0.00% 0.3397
247 Indiana St. -12.15 0.00% 0.4428
248 Morgan St. -12.20 0.00% 0.1412
249 Montana St. -12.24 0.00% 0.3216
250 Nicholls St. -12.28 0.00% 0.1593
251 North Florida -12.29 0.00% 0.3177
252 Missouri -12.33 0.00% 0.5187
253 Murray St. -12.33 0.00% 0.42
254 Southeastern Louisiana -12.34 0.00% 0.3165
255 Northwestern St. -12.41 0.00% 0.2064
256 Grambling St. -12.72 0.00% 0.1274
257 Pacific -12.85 0.00% 0.355
258 Campbell -12.85 0.00% 0.2472
259 Abilene Christian -12.92 0.00% 0.1848
260 Northern Colorado -12.93 0.00% 0.2432
261 South Alabama -13.08 0.00% 0.327
262 Bowling Green -13.08 0.00% 0.324
263 Kennesaw St. -13.15 0.00% 0.2978
264 UNLV -13.16 0.00% 0.3107
265 Southeast Missouri St. -13.22 0.00% 0.3247
266 Sacramento St. -13.24 0.00% 0.2481
267 UTSA -13.33 0.00% 0.2762
268 Portland -13.35 0.00% 0.2744
269 South Carolina St. -13.41 0.00% 0.1017
270 Incarnate Word -13.46 0.00% 0.1811
271 Eastern Kentucky -13.46 0.00% 0.2639
272 Maryland Eastern Shore -13.50 0.00% 0.1604
273 Cal St. Northridge -13.59 0.00% 0.2751
274 Illinois Chicago -13.60 0.00% 0.3198
275 Robert Morris -13.61 0.00% 0.2638
276 Southern -13.63 0.00% 0.1588
277 Delaware -13.82 0.00% 0.2247
278 Air Force -13.86 0.00% 0.3677
279 Charleston Southern -13.87 0.00% 0.2021
280 Austin Peay -13.87 0.00% 0.2336
281 Army -13.89 0.00% 0.3151
282 Pepperdine -14.12 0.00% 0.2189
283 Prairie View A&M -14.15 0.00% 0.1631
284 Fairleigh Dickinson -14.22 0.00% 0.277
285 Cal Poly -14.56 0.00% 0.2038
286 South Florida -14.58 0.00% 0.2244
287 Jackson St. -14.61 0.00% 0.1388
288 NJIT -14.65 0.00% 0.2442
289 Duquesne -14.72 0.00% 0.3795
290 Cornell -14.83 0.00% 0.279
291 Tennessee Tech -14.88 0.00% 0.3045
292 The Citadel -14.89 0.00% 0.2159
293 Florida Atlantic -14.89 0.00% 0.2572
294 Tulane -14.94 0.00% 0.3424
295 Oral Roberts -15.02 0.00% 0.3352
296 Bryant -15.03 0.00% 0.251
297 Dartmouth -15.04 0.00% 0.206
298 Appalachian St. -15.07 0.00% 0.2697
299 Western Illinois -15.18 0.00% 0.2172
300 Sacred Heart -15.38 0.00% 0.2071
301 Binghamton -15.45 0.00% 0.1801
302 Youngstown St. -15.63 0.00% 0.2426
303 Quinnipiac -15.67 0.00% 0.2193
304 Western Carolina -15.68 0.00% 0.1365
305 UMass Lowell -15.72 0.00% 0.235
306 Miami OH -15.74 0.00% 0.2547
307 Cleveland St. -15.78 0.00% 0.3038
308 Manhattan -15.88 0.00% 0.2381
309 UC Riverside -15.93 0.00% 0.1882
310 Lafayette -16.29 0.00% 0.1366
311 UT Rio Grande Valley -16.36 0.00% 0.1833
312 Stetson -16.51 0.00% 0.1638
313 Colgate -16.57 0.00% 0.2712
314 Oregon St. -16.60 0.00% 0.2896
315 UC Santa Barbara -16.70 0.00% 0.1381
316 American -16.70 0.00% 0.1968
317 Southern Miss -16.81 0.00% 0.1533
318 James Madison -17.06 0.00% 0.3676
319 Drake -17.11 0.00% 0.2821
320 Detroit -17.21 0.00% 0.2204
321 Louisiana Monroe -17.21 0.00% 0.2854
322 Drexel -17.39 0.00% 0.31
323 Howard -17.39 0.00% 0.0949
324 McNeese St. -17.41 0.00% 0.1446
325 Delaware St. -17.58 0.00% 0.0975
326 VMI -17.58 0.00% 0.144
327 North Texas -17.62 0.00% 0.1741
328 Central Arkansas -17.95 0.00% 0.1677
329 Milwaukee -17.95 0.00% 0.2904
330 Niagara -18.03 0.00% 0.2807
331 Marist -18.10 0.00% 0.1887
332 Hartford -18.35 0.00% 0.1155
333 Mississippi Valley St. -18.48 0.00% 0.079
334 Chicago St. -18.53 0.00% 0.0907
335 Maine -18.88 0.00% 0.1031
336 Coppin St. -19.03 0.00% 0.068
337 Bethune Cookman -19.05 0.00% 0.0903
338 FIU -19.14 0.00% 0.2636
339 SIU Edwardsville -19.31 0.00% 0.1651
340 Alabama St. -19.40 0.00% 0.0801
341 Northern Arizona -19.48 0.00% 0.1503
342 Longwood -19.52 0.00% 0.0642
343 Central Connecticut -19.79 0.00% 0.091
344 Florida A&M -20.49 0.00% 0.0657
345 Idaho St. -20.50 0.00% 0.1216
346 Presbyterian -20.65 0.00% 0.0417
347 Arkansas Pine Bluff -21.32 0.00% 0.051
348 Southern Utah -22.30 0.00% 0.1333
349 St. Francis NY -22.80 0.00% 0.063
350 Alabama A&M -24.09 0.00% 0.0339
351 North Carolina A&T -25.47 0.00% 0.0486
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