WAB 3/6: Illinois State and Monmouth rest their case.

Every at-large team will be entering the tournament off of a loss in its respective conference tournament. Of the fifty teams currently with positive WAB’s, two have finished their resumes: Illinois State and Monmouth. For Monmouth, it is the same position they were in last year. Last year they had a few more high profile wins, but also an additional loss. They had some hope heading into Selection Sunday, but it was in vain. This year they can be reasonably certain they are NIT bound.

Illinois State is in an entirely different boat. They are 1.5 wins ahead of where an average bubble team would be. If we were to treat WAB like adjusted standings, they’d be safely in. However, I think Percentile is a bit better for selecting the field, so let me refer you to this:

https://sethburn.wordpress.com/2016/02/05/wab-on-2-5-all-about-bubble-percentile/

For Illinois State to be in the 75% percentile means about 73% of bubble quality teams would be 26-7 or worse against their schedule, and 23% would be 28-5 or better. It is very difficult to win that many games against the schedule they faced, and I believe their body of work merits selection to the dance. Will they be selected? It’s highly unlikely. For bubble teams, getting the opportunity to face RPI top 50 teams at home is a key tiebreaker. We’ll see that come into play on Sunday.

Tonight Iona faces off against Siena, with the winner receiving an automatic bid. Siena winning the bid on their home floor would be kind of awkward given that they were not the #1 seed. My sense is that the teams that win their conference tournaments should be given a bye into the finals, played in their home gym. Let the conference tournament determine which team gets a shot to overrule the results of the regular season.

Oh, I almost forgot: UNCs Wilmington and Greensboro face off against College of Charleston and East Tennessee State respectively. Winners dance, and if either UNC loses, they go directly to the NIT.

Full WAB’s are here: (Note, the WAB average on the spreadsheet and the numbers here may vary very slightly due to difference in rounding cutoffs on the various pages)

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hof8DT8OCt_9A-f93NnXnSfMdp97B1qvmQ8Hw_X3X8Y/edit#gid=0

WAB Rank School WAB Bubble Percentile Pythag
1 Kansas 11.19 100.00% 0.9518
2 Villanova 9.54 100.00% 0.9652
3 Baylor 8.10 99.97% 0.9416
4 North Carolina 7.79 99.95% 0.9593
5 Kentucky 7.25 99.92% 0.9509
6 Louisville 7.01 99.85% 0.9539
7 Gonzaga 6.60 99.98% 0.9707
8 UCLA 6.35 99.91% 0.9359
9 Florida 6.29 99.55% 0.9555
10 Arizona 5.97 99.74% 0.9191
11 Oregon 5.76 99.58% 0.9381
12 Butler 5.69 99.13% 0.9138
13 Florida St. 5.66 99.35% 0.9279
14 West Virginia 5.63 99.39% 0.9589
15 Duke 5.61 99.37% 0.9398
16 Purdue 5.60 99.25% 0.94
17 Virginia 4.83 97.97% 0.9566
18 Notre Dame 4.80 98.25% 0.9077
19 Cincinnati 4.79 98.93% 0.9268
20 SMU 4.60 98.37% 0.9371
21 Iowa St. 4.24 96.61% 0.9163
22 Wisconsin 4.18 96.19% 0.9165
23 Maryland 3.97 95.44% 0.8519
24 Wichita St. 3.66 95.70% 0.9451
25 Saint Mary’s 3.59 97.43% 0.9281
26 Oklahoma St. 3.52 93.30% 0.9169
27 Minnesota 3.34 92.12% 0.8696
28 Creighton 3.24 91.74% 0.8958
29 Virginia Tech 2.93 90.75% 0.8322
30 Arkansas 2.81 89.33% 0.8481
31 Miami FL 2.46 86.58% 0.8832
32 Seton Hall 2.03 80.90% 0.8199
33 South Carolina 2.01 79.79% 0.8729
34 Dayton 1.87 79.73% 0.8589
35 Illinois St. 1.50 75.19% 0.8227
36 Northwestern 1.48 73.29% 0.8479
37 USC 1.48 75.01% 0.7957
38 Middle Tennessee 1.36 74.46% 0.8134
39 Wake Forest 1.36 71.95% 0.8735
40 VCU 1.29 70.76% 0.8337
41 Michigan 1.27 70.07% 0.9037
42 Xavier 1.26 69.63% 0.8452
43 UNC Wilmington 1.14 69.40% 0.7708
44 Kansas St. 1.06 67.81% 0.8614
45 Providence 0.91 64.98% 0.8222
46 Marquette 0.87 64.33% 0.8789
47 Michigan St. 0.47 57.79% 0.837
48 Vermont 0.41 57.33% 0.7713
49 Nevada 0.38 55.64% 0.8038
50 Monmouth 0.23 53.12% 0.7201
51 Georgia -0.52 41.17% 0.8016
52 Rhode Island -0.63 38.09% 0.829
53 UT Arlington -0.64 36.41% 0.7493
54 Texas Tech -0.70 37.60% 0.8542
55 Houston -0.70 36.52% 0.8407
56 Clemson -0.73 37.92% 0.8531
57 Syracuse -0.77 36.86% 0.8464
58 TCU -0.77 36.68% 0.8347
59 Princeton -0.85 31.79% 0.7836
60 Vanderbilt -1.00 34.13% 0.8463
61 Belmont -1.01 27.78% 0.6947
62 California -1.21 28.76% 0.8119
63 Illinois -1.23 30.18% 0.7913
64 Mississippi -1.25 29.45% 0.7416
65 East Tennessee St. -1.28 25.77% 0.7504
66 Indiana -1.33 28.06% 0.847
67 Iowa -1.33 28.13% 0.7838
68 Akron -1.42 22.22% 0.659
69 New Mexico St. -1.53 18.24% 0.6564
70 Georgia Tech -1.57 24.58% 0.7191
71 Winthrop -1.59 17.12% 0.6246
72 Florida Gulf Coast -1.70 16.66% 0.6371
73 College of Charleston -1.70 20.37% 0.6827
74 Utah -1.74 20.16% 0.8334
75 UCF -1.88 18.62% 0.7439
76 Auburn -1.95 20.41% 0.7283
77 Pittsburgh -2.07 19.01% 0.7594
78 Valparaiso -2.17 12.86% 0.6576
79 Tennessee -2.23 16.92% 0.7863
80 UNC Greensboro -2.25 13.03% 0.5733
81 Ohio St. -2.37 15.45% 0.7866
82 BYU -2.40 12.20% 0.7675
83 Bucknell -2.55 9.24% 0.7098
84 Alabama -2.77 11.62% 0.7952
85 Texas A&M -2.83 10.17% 0.7956
86 Boise St. -3.03 7.94% 0.6918
87 Memphis -3.29 6.62% 0.6954
88 Colorado St. -3.30 6.29% 0.6778
89 Cal St. Bakersfield -3.34 2.89% 0.619
90 Richmond -3.43 6.54% 0.701
91 UNC Asheville -3.54 3.09% 0.638
92 Colorado -3.68 5.15% 0.7517
93 North Carolina St. -3.72 4.98% 0.6827
94 Oakland -3.73 2.63% 0.6277
95 Grand Canyon -3.77 1.75% 0.4881
96 Georgetown -3.91 5.00% 0.7878
97 Fresno St. -4.23 2.30% 0.6665
98 St. Bonaventure -4.23 2.37% 0.6983
99 Louisiana Tech -4.28 1.10% 0.6921
100 Oklahoma -4.29 3.10% 0.7988
101 Harvard -4.36 1.17% 0.637
102 Stanford -4.39 2.49% 0.6672
103 Texas Southern -4.51 0.53% 0.4123
104 George Washington -4.61 2.38% 0.6108
105 San Francisco -4.61 1.23% 0.6395
106 Yale -4.68 0.74% 0.5414
107 Penn St. -4.81 2.39% 0.7297
108 George Mason -4.86 1.51% 0.6232
109 South Dakota -4.87 0.83% 0.5425
110 Nebraska -4.92 2.09% 0.6748
111 Arkansas St. -5.00 0.92% 0.5756
112 Old Dominion -5.09 0.71% 0.5937
113 Northern Kentucky -5.12 0.50% 0.5169
114 Temple -5.13 0.98% 0.6494
115 Furman -5.22 0.68% 0.6294
116 New Mexico -5.31 0.90% 0.5942
117 Eastern Washington -5.37 0.26% 0.457
118 Georgia St. -5.39 0.44% 0.5882
119 North Carolina Central -5.46 0.04% 0.4383
120 Ohio -5.50 0.37% 0.6606
121 Mississippi St. -5.51 0.85% 0.6866
122 Davidson -5.51 0.73% 0.7145
123 St. John’s -5.53 0.93% 0.6934
124 Rice -5.60 0.21% 0.5367
125 Connecticut -5.82 0.51% 0.6986
126 Louisiana Lafayette -5.83 0.25% 0.5692
127 North Dakota -5.89 0.06% 0.4717
128 Chattanooga -5.94 0.22% 0.5723
129 Rutgers -5.95 0.44% 0.5889
130 North Dakota St. -6.03 0.19% 0.4984
131 Lehigh -6.10 0.17% 0.604
132 New Hampshire -6.10 0.07% 0.4997
133 Texas A&M Corpus Chris -6.13 0.02% 0.3779
134 Iona -6.21 0.21% 0.5886
135 Texas -6.23 0.42% 0.7551
136 San Diego St. -6.29 0.20% 0.7127
137 Ball St. -6.31 0.12% 0.5065
138 Arizona St. -6.37 0.26% 0.5747
139 La Salle -6.46 0.20% 0.5665
140 Tulsa -6.53 0.19% 0.5542
141 Nebraska Omaha -6.60 0.11% 0.4619
142 Towson -6.64 0.18% 0.6087
143 Albany -6.72 0.03% 0.5621
144 Tennessee Martin -6.88 0.04% 0.39
145 Fort Wayne -6.91 0.03% 0.5629
146 New Orleans -6.92 0.01% 0.4165
147 Wright St. -7.02 0.06% 0.5035
148 Wyoming -7.04 0.08% 0.5535
149 Santa Clara -7.05 0.04% 0.5935
150 William & Mary -7.05 0.05% 0.563
151 UC Irvine -7.08 0.03% 0.5746
152 Houston Baptist -7.20 0.01% 0.3671
153 Washington St. -7.25 0.07% 0.4529
154 Northern Iowa -7.28 0.07% 0.4812
155 Loyola Marymount -7.31 0.02% 0.4984
156 Georgia Southern -7.40 0.04% 0.5108
157 Tennessee St. -7.42 0.01% 0.4841
158 Stony Brook -7.58 0.01% 0.4039
159 Loyola Chicago -7.62 0.03% 0.6674
160 Southern Illinois -7.62 0.03% 0.5179
161 Buffalo -7.62 0.02% 0.5928
162 UMBC -7.65 0.01% 0.4347
163 Saint Peter’s -7.69 0.02% 0.6233
164 Marshall -7.89 0.01% 0.4882
165 Green Bay -7.91 0.01% 0.4699
166 Sam Houston St. -7.96 0.00% 0.3235
167 Kent St. -7.98 0.01% 0.519
168 Elon -8.00 0.02% 0.5462
169 Texas St. -8.06 0.00% 0.4386
170 Lipscomb -8.16 0.00% 0.5193
171 Mount St. Mary’s -8.19 0.00% 0.371
172 Liberty -8.23 0.00% 0.3902
173 Weber St. -8.29 0.00% 0.4699
174 Penn -8.30 0.00% 0.5086
175 UC Davis -8.31 0.00% 0.363
176 LSU -8.35 0.03% 0.5125
177 Gardner Webb -8.37 0.00% 0.4825
178 Jacksonville St. -8.42 0.01% 0.4907
179 Western Michigan -8.51 0.01% 0.5345
180 Samford -8.65 0.00% 0.4923
181 San Jose St. -8.77 0.00% 0.4102
182 Missouri St. -8.78 0.01% 0.58
183 East Carolina -8.80 0.00% 0.4298
184 Idaho -8.80 0.00% 0.3611
185 LIU Brooklyn -8.92 0.00% 0.3008
186 UAB -8.92 0.00% 0.4642
187 Troy -8.94 0.00% 0.505
188 Stephen F. Austin -8.98 0.00% 0.3119
189 Boston University -9.09 0.00% 0.434
190 UMKC -9.16 0.00% 0.3514
191 Evansville -9.17 0.00% 0.5209
192 Utah St. -9.18 0.00% 0.5401
193 Toledo -9.19 0.00% 0.5663
194 Northeastern -9.23 0.00% 0.5035
195 Alcorn St. -9.23 0.00% 0.2096
196 Fairfield -9.31 0.00% 0.3897
197 Siena -9.39 0.00% 0.5
198 Canisius -9.42 0.00% 0.4579
199 Denver -9.47 0.00% 0.4448
200 Boston College -9.52 0.00% 0.543
201 Massachusetts -9.70 0.00% 0.5425
202 Eastern Michigan -9.70 0.00% 0.5614
203 Coastal Carolina -9.92 0.00% 0.411
204 Utah Valley -9.95 0.00% 0.4243
205 Central Michigan -10.02 0.00% 0.3713
206 Charlotte -10.08 0.00% 0.3212
207 Montana -10.12 0.00% 0.4533
208 Wofford -10.17 0.00% 0.5376
209 Long Beach St. -10.20 0.00% 0.3487
210 San Diego -10.24 0.00% 0.2933
211 Rider -10.27 0.00% 0.391
212 Mercer -10.28 0.00% 0.5441
213 Lamar -10.32 0.00% 0.3388
214 South Dakota St. -10.34 0.00% 0.4695
215 Washington -10.41 0.00% 0.5001
216 Western Kentucky -10.42 0.00% 0.3554
217 Norfolk St. -10.42 0.00% 0.1902
218 Cal St. Fullerton -10.44 0.00% 0.27
219 Saint Joseph’s -10.45 0.00% 0.4971
220 DePaul -10.53 0.00% 0.4986
221 Morehead St. -10.54 0.00% 0.4227
222 IUPUI -10.55 0.00% 0.457
223 USC Upstate -10.71 0.00% 0.3394
224 Wagner -10.86 0.00% 0.3212
225 Loyola MD -10.92 0.00% 0.2932
226 Fordham -10.96 0.00% 0.444
227 Holy Cross -11.15 0.00% 0.3606
228 Hofstra -11.17 0.00% 0.4681
229 Columbia -11.19 0.00% 0.3511
230 Hawaii -11.19 0.00% 0.3221
231 St. Francis PA -11.20 0.00% 0.2938
232 Montana St. -11.28 0.00% 0.3403
233 Savannah St. -11.29 0.00% 0.1591
234 Little Rock -11.33 0.00% 0.3395
235 Northern Illinois -11.39 0.00% 0.404
236 Navy -11.41 0.00% 0.3915
237 UTEP -11.42 0.00% 0.4098
238 Southeastern Louisiana -11.43 0.00% 0.326
239 Bradley -11.53 0.00% 0.3838
240 High Point -11.53 0.00% 0.2744
241 Seattle -11.69 0.00% 0.26
242 Eastern Illinois -11.71 0.00% 0.3574
243 Portland St. -11.76 0.00% 0.332
244 Hampton -11.80 0.00% 0.1773
245 Radford -11.85 0.00% 0.2115
246 Brown -11.87 0.00% 0.2687
247 Jacksonville -11.88 0.00% 0.264
248 Saint Louis -12.04 0.00% 0.2751
249 Indiana St. -12.15 0.00% 0.4468
250 South Alabama -12.21 0.00% 0.3351
251 Morgan St. -12.21 0.00% 0.1419
252 North Florida -12.27 0.00% 0.3164
253 Nicholls St. -12.27 0.00% 0.1594
254 UNLV -12.30 0.00% 0.3086
255 Murray St. -12.33 0.00% 0.4208
256 Bowling Green -12.37 0.00% 0.3331
257 Northwestern St. -12.42 0.00% 0.2059
258 South Carolina St. -12.50 0.00% 0.0991
259 Missouri -12.66 0.00% 0.5069
260 Illinois Chicago -12.66 0.00% 0.3246
261 Grambling St. -12.78 0.00% 0.1188
262 Campbell -12.86 0.00% 0.2433
263 Pacific -12.87 0.00% 0.3529
264 Abilene Christian -12.89 0.00% 0.1854
265 Northern Colorado -12.93 0.00% 0.2419
266 Kennesaw St. -13.16 0.00% 0.2966
267 Prairie View A&M -13.18 0.00% 0.171
268 Southeast Missouri St. -13.22 0.00% 0.3247
269 Sacramento St. -13.24 0.00% 0.2365
270 Portland -13.38 0.00% 0.2719
271 UTSA -13.41 0.00% 0.2707
272 Eastern Kentucky -13.44 0.00% 0.2651
273 Incarnate Word -13.46 0.00% 0.1816
274 Maryland Eastern Shore -13.53 0.00% 0.16
275 Robert Morris -13.59 0.00% 0.2651
276 Cal St. Northridge -13.60 0.00% 0.2745
277 Southern -13.62 0.00% 0.1572
278 Jackson St. -13.65 0.00% 0.141
279 Duquesne -13.78 0.00% 0.3841
280 Delaware -13.83 0.00% 0.2218
281 Army -13.87 0.00% 0.3151
282 Charleston Southern -13.88 0.00% 0.2028
283 Austin Peay -13.88 0.00% 0.2335
284 Florida Atlantic -14.04 0.00% 0.2636
285 Air Force -14.04 0.00% 0.348
286 Pepperdine -14.14 0.00% 0.2193
287 Fairleigh Dickinson -14.21 0.00% 0.278
288 Appalachian St. -14.23 0.00% 0.2794
289 Cal Poly -14.58 0.00% 0.2029
290 South Florida -14.59 0.00% 0.2249
291 NJIT -14.67 0.00% 0.2463
292 Youngstown St. -14.77 0.00% 0.2392
293 Cornell -14.82 0.00% 0.2791
294 Tennessee Tech -14.87 0.00% 0.3042
295 The Citadel -14.91 0.00% 0.2146
296 Tulane -14.94 0.00% 0.3378
297 Oral Roberts -14.99 0.00% 0.336
298 Miami OH -15.01 0.00% 0.2483
299 Bryant -15.02 0.00% 0.255
300 Dartmouth -15.05 0.00% 0.2065
301 Western Illinois -15.18 0.00% 0.2178
302 Sacred Heart -15.39 0.00% 0.2068
303 Binghamton -15.46 0.00% 0.1817
304 Western Carolina -15.68 0.00% 0.1377
305 Quinnipiac -15.69 0.00% 0.2224
306 UMass Lowell -15.74 0.00% 0.2356
307 Cleveland St. -15.76 0.00% 0.3083
308 Manhattan -15.88 0.00% 0.2378
309 UC Riverside -15.96 0.00% 0.1863
310 Southern Miss -15.99 0.00% 0.1519
311 Oregon St. -16.03 0.00% 0.2797
312 Lafayette -16.25 0.00% 0.1372
313 UT Rio Grande Valley -16.38 0.00% 0.1821
314 Stetson -16.53 0.00% 0.1646
315 Colgate -16.55 0.00% 0.2716
316 Delaware St. -16.60 0.00% 0.1041
317 American -16.67 0.00% 0.2006
318 UC Santa Barbara -16.73 0.00% 0.1368
319 James Madison -17.02 0.00% 0.367
320 Central Arkansas -17.03 0.00% 0.1696
321 Drake -17.11 0.00% 0.2832
322 Detroit -17.18 0.00% 0.2232
323 Milwaukee -17.18 0.00% 0.2744
324 Drexel -17.39 0.00% 0.3125
325 Howard -17.40 0.00% 0.0916
326 McNeese St. -17.41 0.00% 0.1442
327 Louisiana Monroe -17.41 0.00% 0.2762
328 Mississippi Valley St. -17.55 0.00% 0.0756
329 VMI -17.61 0.00% 0.1447
330 North Texas -17.62 0.00% 0.1746
331 Coppin St. -18.03 0.00% 0.07
332 Niagara -18.04 0.00% 0.2794
333 Marist -18.13 0.00% 0.1871
334 Bethune Cookman -18.22 0.00% 0.0894
335 Hartford -18.38 0.00% 0.1166
336 Chicago St. -18.53 0.00% 0.0906
337 Alabama St. -18.59 0.00% 0.0786
338 Northern Arizona -18.61 0.00% 0.1548
339 Maine -18.93 0.00% 0.1037
340 FIU -19.14 0.00% 0.264
341 SIU Edwardsville -19.28 0.00% 0.1662
342 Longwood -19.50 0.00% 0.0641
343 Florida A&M -19.53 0.00% 0.0659
344 Idaho St. -19.54 0.00% 0.1287
345 Central Connecticut -19.79 0.00% 0.0913
346 Presbyterian -20.64 0.00% 0.042
347 Arkansas Pine Bluff -21.31 0.00% 0.0509
348 Southern Utah -22.37 0.00% 0.1223
349 St. Francis NY -22.78 0.00% 0.0633
350 Alabama A&M -24.09 0.00% 0.0337
351 North Carolina A&T -24.52 0.00% 0.0481
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