WAB 3/3: Part Deux: Market WAB

These were a remarkably difficult pain in the ass to generate, mostly for the teams at the bottom of the NCAA pecking order who play in fewer lined games. The other issue is that with so many conference games recently relative to out of conference games, it is difficult to grab collective movement of a conference. Still, these are a pretty faithful effort, and these tell me something I had suspected: The elide-midmajors really are putting up worthy at-large resumes. If the collective computer ratings were overrating midmajors relative to the power conferences, this methodology would pick up on that. It turns out that the computer ratings aren’t making that mistake for the most part.

I will not be putting these into the WAB average the next time I run it because those are going to be strictly computer rating based.

WAB Rank School WAB Bubble Percentile Pythag
1 Kansas 10.87 100.00% 0.9634
2 Villanova 8.89 100.00% 0.9656
3 Baylor 8.00 99.98% 0.9445
4 North Carolina 7.28 99.91% 0.9749
5 Kentucky 6.94 99.90% 0.9604
6 Florida 6.91 99.85% 0.9524
7 UCLA 6.78 99.95% 0.9572
8 Louisville 6.60 99.78% 0.9538
9 Butler 6.33 99.66% 0.9283
10 Arizona 6.30 99.87% 0.925
11 Gonzaga 6.28 99.97% 0.9753
12 Oregon 6.23 99.80% 0.9478
13 Duke 5.80 99.56% 0.9579
14 West Virginia 5.41 99.32% 0.9628
15 Florida St. 5.06 98.92% 0.9392
16 Purdue 5.00 98.65% 0.9445
17 Notre Dame 4.95 98.70% 0.8996
18 Iowa St. 4.78 98.17% 0.9205
19 Virginia 4.68 97.89% 0.9445
20 SMU 4.36 97.97% 0.9216
21 Oklahoma St. 4.27 96.92% 0.9272
22 Cincinnati 4.17 97.95% 0.9193
23 Wisconsin 4.02 95.86% 0.9335
24 Creighton 3.88 95.51% 0.8981
25 Virginia Tech 3.70 95.78% 0.8344
26 Minnesota 3.62 94.11% 0.863
27 Maryland 3.57 94.00% 0.8611
28 Saint Mary’s 3.44 97.18% 0.9118
29 Miami FL 2.78 89.94% 0.9079
30 Wichita St. 2.61 90.02% 0.9516
31 Arkansas 2.56 87.68% 0.8649
32 South Carolina 2.55 86.22% 0.8936
33 Dayton 2.20 85.01% 0.8686
34 Northwestern 1.89 79.22% 0.8409
35 USC 1.66 77.87% 0.8322
36 Seton Hall 1.45 73.55% 0.8344
37 Middle Tennessee 1.36 74.64% 0.8063
38 Illinois St. 1.36 74.21% 0.7936
39 Xavier 1.22 69.19% 0.8533
40 Michigan St. 1.03 67.01% 0.8533
41 Kansas St. 0.85 64.96% 0.889
42 Michigan 0.84 63.89% 0.9156
43 VCU 0.75 62.46% 0.8553
44 Wake Forest 0.68 61.80% 0.863
45 Monmouth 0.64 62.39% 0.7547
46 UNC Wilmington 0.55 59.28% 0.8063
47 Marquette 0.53 59.16% 0.8841
48 Providence 0.44 57.60% 0.8136
49 Vermont 0.22 53.20% 0.7663
50 Georgia -0.05 48.83% 0.7987
51 Nevada -0.07 47.10% 0.7802
52 Texas Tech -0.16 47.14% 0.8841
53 TCU -0.18 46.72% 0.8611
54 UT Arlington -0.24 43.76% 0.7458
55 Belmont -0.25 42.74% 0.7046
56 California -0.44 41.50% 0.8686
57 Illinois -0.47 41.73% 0.7856
58 Clemson -0.76 37.33% 0.8667
59 Syracuse -0.84 35.60% 0.8704
60 Princeton -1.11 26.45% 0.8013
61 Houston -1.13 29.22% 0.8451
62 Georgia Tech -1.17 29.87% 0.7112
63 Valparaiso -1.29 23.79% 0.6741
64 Rhode Island -1.33 26.03% 0.8533
65 Utah -1.40 24.64% 0.8472
66 Vanderbilt -1.50 26.52% 0.8611
67 Iowa -1.55 24.88% 0.7987
68 New Mexico St. -1.65 16.16% 0.6492
69 Ohio St. -1.68 22.86% 0.8063
70 Indiana -1.76 21.26% 0.8611
71 Mississippi -1.77 21.53% 0.7775
72 Florida Gulf Coast -1.80 15.07% 0.6085
73 Akron -1.86 15.36% 0.667
74 Auburn -1.90 20.82% 0.7517
75 Pittsburgh -2.02 19.16% 0.7883
76 East Tennessee St. -2.03 14.37% 0.7488
77 College of Charleston -2.09 14.98% 0.6564
78 Tennessee -2.26 15.93% 0.8088
79 Alabama -2.28 15.42% 0.8038
80 Winthrop -2.30 7.14% 0.6009
81 UCF -2.37 12.89% 0.7427
82 Texas A&M -2.38 13.45% 0.8277
83 Cal St. Bakersfield -2.67 5.56% 0.6564
84 BYU -2.68 9.34% 0.7775
85 Bucknell -2.75 7.24% 0.6912
86 Colorado St. -2.87 8.30% 0.6635
87 UNC Greensboro -2.90 6.66% 0.4992
88 Oakland -2.99 5.28% 0.6912
89 Memphis -3.22 6.82% 0.7177
90 Harvard -3.44 2.38% 0.5971
91 Georgetown -3.58 6.25% 0.8322
92 Boise St. -3.58 4.55% 0.6741
93 Colorado -3.66 4.82% 0.7909
94 Stanford -3.67 4.67% 0.7397
95 North Carolina St. -3.81 4.35% 0.7366
96 Richmond -3.85 4.12% 0.6635
97 UNC Asheville -4.10 1.14% 0.6419
98 San Francisco -4.10 1.91% 0.6492
99 Arkansas St. -4.20 2.02% 0.5584
100 Grand Canyon -4.21 0.70% 0.5031
101 Louisiana Tech -4.25 1.00% 0.6946
102 Oklahoma -4.26 2.81% 0.8277
103 Old Dominion -4.29 1.69% 0.6272
104 Penn St. -4.39 3.10% 0.7366
105 Nebraska -4.45 2.87% 0.7605
106 Fresno St. -4.47 1.65% 0.6599
107 Eastern Washington -4.53 0.71% 0.4714
108 Texas Southern -4.69 0.32% 0.4205
109 St. Bonaventure -4.75 1.05% 0.7304
110 St. John’s -4.77 1.91% 0.7488
111 Rice -4.82 0.50% 0.5545
112 Furman -4.89 0.73% 0.5817
113 George Mason -4.90 1.06% 0.5778
114 Yale -4.91 0.46% 0.5387
115 South Dakota -4.91 0.71% 0.5466
116 George Washington -5.33 0.83% 0.6122
117 Arizona St. -5.34 0.82% 0.6272
118 Northern Kentucky -5.37 0.29% 0.4794
119 Davidson -5.43 0.57% 0.7209
120 North Dakota St. -5.48 0.29% 0.5545
121 Connecticut -5.49 0.67% 0.7209
122 Texas -5.49 0.88% 0.7909
123 Mississippi St. -5.54 0.75% 0.6844
124 Chattanooga -5.58 0.22% 0.6122
125 North Carolina Central -5.65 0.02% 0.4013
126 Temple -5.67 0.44% 0.6635
127 Ohio -5.71 0.25% 0.6456
128 San Diego St. -5.78 0.31% 0.7397
129 Georgia St. -5.81 0.18% 0.6197
130 North Dakota -5.89 0.05% 0.4714
131 New Mexico -5.91 0.36% 0.6047
132 Tulsa -6.01 0.36% 0.5701
133 Rutgers -6.21 0.23% 0.5817
134 Wright St. -6.21 0.16% 0.4952
135 Fort Wayne -6.29 0.06% 0.6047
136 Texas A&M Corpus Chris -6.30 0.01% 0.3386
137 New Hampshire -6.32 0.04% 0.5071
138 Louisiana Lafayette -6.33 0.09% 0.5778
139 Towson -6.34 0.18% 0.5856
140 Tennessee Martin -6.39 0.04% 0.3862
141 Washington St. -6.46 0.18% 0.4557
142 Lehigh -6.52 0.06% 0.6456
143 Ball St. -6.57 0.06% 0.5269
144 William & Mary -6.70 0.04% 0.6047
145 Northern Iowa -6.70 0.12% 0.5894
146 Nebraska Omaha -6.79 0.06% 0.44
147 Iona -6.93 0.04% 0.5348
148 Loyola Chicago -6.94 0.06% 0.6775
149 La Salle -6.97 0.06% 0.6197
150 Georgia Southern -6.99 0.05% 0.4596
151 Loyola Marymount -6.99 0.03% 0.5031
152 Albany -7.04 0.02% 0.5545
153 Green Bay -7.06 0.02% 0.4952
154 Wyoming -7.14 0.06% 0.5545
155 Elon -7.14 0.04% 0.5269
156 New Orleans -7.15 0.00% 0.4361
157 UC Irvine -7.19 0.02% 0.5894
158 Sam Houston St. -7.32 0.00% 0.247
159 Kent St. -7.34 0.03% 0.5545
160 Saint Peter’s -7.37 0.01% 0.6122
161 UC Davis -7.43 0.01% 0.3824
162 Houston Baptist -7.47 0.00% 0.3712
163 Santa Clara -7.52 0.01% 0.6047
164 Tennessee St. -7.54 0.01% 0.4873
165 Southern Illinois -7.58 0.02% 0.5269
166 Penn -7.64 0.01% 0.5545
167 LSU -7.68 0.06% 0.5031
168 Stony Brook -7.74 0.01% 0.4013
169 Buffalo -7.87 0.01% 0.5971
170 UMBC -7.94 0.00% 0.4361
171 Marshall -7.99 0.01% 0.5111
172 Gardner Webb -8.02 0.00% 0.3975
173 UAB -8.12 0.00% 0.515
174 Boston University -8.28 0.00% 0.4439
175 San Jose St. -8.37 0.00% 0.3899
176 Lipscomb -8.38 0.00% 0.5817
177 Weber St. -8.40 0.00% 0.5071
178 Texas St. -8.40 0.00% 0.4517
179 Alcorn St. -8.41 0.00% 0.2028
180 Mount St. Mary’s -8.45 0.00% 0.3712
181 Northeastern -8.57 0.01% 0.5427
182 Western Michigan -8.61 0.00% 0.5348
183 Liberty -8.65 0.00% 0.294
184 East Carolina -8.70 0.00% 0.44
185 Missouri St. -8.75 0.00% 0.5466
186 Denver -8.76 0.00% 0.4517
187 Samford -8.77 0.00% 0.4283
188 Evansville -8.80 0.00% 0.515
189 Fairfield -8.87 0.00% 0.409
190 Idaho -8.89 0.00% 0.3675
191 Canisius -8.93 0.00% 0.4128
192 Jacksonville St. -9.05 0.00% 0.44
193 LIU Brooklyn -9.06 0.00% 0.3107
194 Eastern Michigan -9.08 0.00% 0.5778
195 Troy -9.15 0.00% 0.4912
196 Stephen F. Austin -9.21 0.00% 0.3421
197 Massachusetts -9.29 0.00% 0.1878
198 UMKC -9.30 0.00% 0.3675
199 Coastal Carolina -9.30 0.00% 0.3862
200 Boston College -9.32 0.00% 0.5348
201 Central Michigan -9.35 0.00% 0.3421
202 Charlotte -9.39 0.00% 0.335
203 Washington -9.42 0.00% 0.5348
204 Utah St. -9.43 0.00% 0.574
205 San Diego -9.46 0.00% 0.2874
206 Columbia -9.68 0.00% 0.375
207 Toledo -9.68 0.00% 0.574
208 Wofford -9.93 0.00% 0.4794
209 DePaul -9.93 0.00% 0.519
210 Siena -9.98 0.00% 0.4557
211 Rider -10.01 0.00% 0.3937
212 Utah Valley -10.07 0.00% 0.4557
213 Long Beach St. -10.13 0.00% 0.4167
214 Mercer -10.16 0.00% 0.5623
215 Montana -10.17 0.00% 0.4794
216 Hawaii -10.25 0.00% 0.3141
217 Wagner -10.25 0.00% 0.328
218 Hofstra -10.36 0.00% 0.5466
219 South Dakota St. -10.44 0.00% 0.4675
220 Cal St. Fullerton -10.59 0.00% 0.2907
221 Western Kentucky -10.64 0.00% 0.3712
222 Lamar -10.64 0.00% 0.328
223 Montana St. -10.65 0.00% 0.3457
224 Norfolk St. -10.66 0.00% 0.1806
225 Morehead St. -10.72 0.00% 0.4361
226 Fordham -10.73 0.00% 0.4283
227 USC Upstate -10.73 0.00% 0.3824
228 Northern Illinois -10.77 0.00% 0.44
229 Little Rock -10.78 0.00% 0.3862
230 IUPUI -10.89 0.00% 0.3824
231 Saint Joseph’s -10.92 0.00% 0.4794
232 Seattle -10.93 0.00% 0.1927
233 Portland St. -11.03 0.00% 0.321
234 Navy -11.13 0.00% 0.4051
235 Loyola MD -11.16 0.00% 0.294
236 Brown -11.17 0.00% 0.2652
237 Radford -11.36 0.00% 0.1625
238 Savannah St. -11.39 0.00% 0.1307
239 Holy Cross -11.40 0.00% 0.3712
240 St. Francis PA -11.40 0.00% 0.3006
241 Bradley -11.47 0.00% 0.3421
242 UTEP -11.51 0.00% 0.3937
243 North Florida -11.62 0.00% 0.335
244 Nicholls St. -11.64 0.00% 0.1381
245 Saint Louis -11.64 0.00% 0.2383
246 Southeastern Louisiana -11.66 0.00% 0.2842
247 Murray St. -11.74 0.00% 0.4478
248 UNLV -11.83 0.00% 0.3141
249 Bowling Green -11.84 0.00% 0.335
250 Eastern Illinois -11.96 0.00% 0.3529
251 Jacksonville -11.98 0.00% 0.25
252 High Point -12.02 0.00% 0.2652
253 Missouri -12.03 0.00% 0.5427
254 Hampton -12.03 0.00% 0.1603
255 Indiana St. -12.23 0.00% 0.4912
256 Abilene Christian -12.29 0.00% 0.1479
257 Sacramento St. -12.35 0.00% 0.2383
258 Morgan St. -12.42 0.00% 0.1288
259 Cal St. Northridge -12.44 0.00% 0.328
260 South Alabama -12.56 0.00% 0.3529
261 Northwestern St. -12.59 0.00% 0.1439
262 South Carolina St. -12.60 0.00% 0.0756
263 Campbell -12.65 0.00% 0.154
264 Incarnate Word -12.76 0.00% 0.1691
265 Illinois Chicago -12.86 0.00% 0.3006
266 Southern -12.91 0.00% 0.1325
267 Robert Morris -12.96 0.00% 0.2746
268 Grambling St. -12.97 0.00% 0.1057
269 Northern Colorado -13.06 0.00% 0.2106
270 Duquesne -13.10 0.00% 0.375
271 Pacific -13.19 0.00% 0.3421
272 Portland -13.24 0.00% 0.2652
273 Pepperdine -13.35 0.00% 0.259
274 Prairie View A&M -13.39 0.00% 0.1479
275 Cal Poly -13.49 0.00% 0.2778
276 Delaware -13.50 0.00% 0.2241
277 Kennesaw St. -13.51 0.00% 0.3386
278 Air Force -13.54 0.00% 0.3899
279 Eastern Kentucky -13.56 0.00% 0.2746
280 Southeast Missouri St. -13.58 0.00% 0.3107
281 UTSA -13.62 0.00% 0.2441
282 Florida Atlantic -13.70 0.00% 0.3107
283 Jackson St. -13.82 0.00% 0.1343
284 Maryland Eastern Shore -13.82 0.00% 0.1343
285 South Florida -13.92 0.00% 0.2354
286 Army -13.98 0.00% 0.294
287 Austin Peay -14.06 0.00% 0.2002
288 Cornell -14.31 0.00% 0.256
289 Charleston Southern -14.36 0.00% 0.1736
290 Fairleigh Dickinson -14.42 0.00% 0.2297
291 Appalachian St. -14.43 0.00% 0.281
292 Western Illinois -14.52 0.00% 0.208
293 Miami OH -14.56 0.00% 0.259
294 The Citadel -14.61 0.00% 0.1691
295 NJIT -14.72 0.00% 0.208
296 Cleveland St. -14.98 0.00% 0.335
297 Dartmouth -15.00 0.00% 0.1927
298 Oral Roberts -15.09 0.00% 0.3493
299 Tennessee Tech -15.09 0.00% 0.304
300 Western Carolina -15.17 0.00% 0.1201
301 Youngstown St. -15.18 0.00% 0.2354
302 Oregon St. -15.18 0.00% 0.3457
303 Tulane -15.19 0.00% 0.3675
304 Bryant -15.27 0.00% 0.2778
305 Southern Miss -15.51 0.00% 0.154
306 Sacred Heart -15.56 0.00% 0.2002
307 Binghamton -15.63 0.00% 0.183
308 UC Riverside -15.88 0.00% 0.2106
309 UT Rio Grande Valley -15.92 0.00% 0.1878
310 Quinnipiac -16.02 0.00% 0.2297
311 Central Arkansas -16.19 0.00% 0.1519
312 Manhattan -16.21 0.00% 0.25
313 UMass Lowell -16.21 0.00% 0.2842
314 Detroit -16.35 0.00% 0.2683
315 Lafayette -16.44 0.00% 0.1236
316 Drexel -16.57 0.00% 0.3141
317 James Madison -16.60 0.00% 0.3566
318 Louisiana Monroe -16.63 0.00% 0.304
319 Stetson -16.71 0.00% 0.1603
320 McNeese St. -16.71 0.00% 0.1236
321 Colgate -16.75 0.00% 0.25
322 Delaware St. -16.79 0.00% 0.0734
323 UC Santa Barbara -16.82 0.00% 0.1307
324 American -16.82 0.00% 0.2133
325 North Texas -16.99 0.00% 0.1625
326 VMI -17.35 0.00% 0.154
327 Drake -17.36 0.00% 0.3006
328 Milwaukee -17.62 0.00% 0.247
329 Howard -17.65 0.00% 0.0956
330 Niagara -17.67 0.00% 0.2241
331 Mississippi Valley St. -17.72 0.00% 0.0551
332 Alabama St. -17.76 0.00% 0.0671
333 Chicago St. -17.83 0.00% 0.0779
334 Coppin St. -18.11 0.00% 0.0622
335 Bethune Cookman -18.43 0.00% 0.0756
336 Marist -18.44 0.00% 0.1691
337 Hartford -18.65 0.00% 0.0876
338 Idaho St. -18.66 0.00% 0.154
339 Northern Arizona -18.85 0.00% 0.1253
340 Maine -19.14 0.00% 0.1042
341 SIU Edwardsville -19.50 0.00% 0.14
342 FIU -19.55 0.00% 0.25
343 Florida A&M -19.75 0.00% 0.0535
344 Central Connecticut -19.95 0.00% 0.0876
345 Longwood -19.96 0.00% 0.0466
346 Arkansas Pine Bluff -20.54 0.00% 0.0375
347 Presbyterian -21.22 0.00% 0.0241
348 Southern Utah -21.60 0.00% 0.1057
349 St. Francis NY -23.02 0.00% 0.0503
350 Alabama A&M -23.28 0.00% 0.0316
351 North Carolina A&T -25.04 0.00% 0.0216
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