WAB 3/2: The bubble firms up

It’s not your imagination, the bubble really is stronger than it was yesterday. Marquette picked up a solid win, as did Kansas State. There is a lot more basketball left to be played, but right now the bubble is slightly stronger than average, despite what you might be hearing about it on television or Twitter.

Michael DeCourcy wrote about the plight of mid-majors:

http://www.sportingnews.com/ncaa-basketball/news/ncaa-tournament-fails-to-recognize-strength-of-dominant-mid-major-wichita-state-illinois-state-middle-tennessee/80m4xqvysx5h1pq3snfenv6w7?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Last year Saint Mary’s got royally hosed, and Monmouth got a bit hosed as well.

https://sethburn.wordpress.com/2016/03/14/tulsa-saint-marys/

I don’t really believe Wichita State is in any danger of missing the tournament, but Illinois State, Middle Tennessee, Monmouth, and UNC Wilmington are all in danger of being passed over for teams with inferior resumes.

On the other side, there are teams like Cal who might make it despite an inferior resume. Cal and Texas Tech are better than Monmouth and UNC Wilmington, but that isn’t reflected in their W/L record, even after taking the differences in schedules into account. We’ll see what the committee does in 10 days.

I don’t have time to run the full WABs. These are from the KenPoms.

WAB Rank School WAB Bubble Percentile Pythag
1 Kansas 10.23 100.00% 0.9439
2 Villanova 8.67 99.99% 0.9578
3 Baylor 7.25 99.92% 0.9435
4 North Carolina 6.87 99.85% 0.9516
5 Kentucky 6.61 99.83% 0.9512
6 Florida 6.57 99.75% 0.9565
7 Gonzaga 6.39 99.98% 0.9731
8 Louisville 6.15 99.61% 0.9529
9 UCLA 5.97 99.84% 0.9236
10 Butler 5.92 99.41% 0.9142
11 Arizona 5.52 99.58% 0.9117
12 Oregon 5.50 99.43% 0.9278
13 Duke 5.44 99.26% 0.9282
14 West Virginia 4.93 98.74% 0.956
15 Florida St. 4.87 98.53% 0.9226
16 Purdue 4.63 97.93% 0.9343
17 Notre Dame 4.63 98.02% 0.8919
18 Virginia 4.24 96.47% 0.9584
19 SMU 4.12 97.42% 0.931
20 Wisconsin 4.11 96.51% 0.9178
21 Iowa St. 4.10 96.25% 0.9065
22 Cincinnati 3.96 97.61% 0.913
23 Oklahoma St. 3.64 94.22% 0.9108
24 Saint Mary’s 3.45 97.22% 0.9301
25 Maryland 3.35 92.69% 0.845
26 Virginia Tech 3.20 93.12% 0.8269
27 Creighton 3.19 91.95% 0.894
28 Minnesota 3.08 91.10% 0.8749
29 Wichita St. 2.93 92.35% 0.9398
30 Arkansas 2.52 87.30% 0.8255
31 Dayton 2.52 87.95% 0.869
32 South Carolina 2.35 84.25% 0.897
33 Miami FL 2.29 85.07% 0.8806
34 Northwestern 1.57 74.95% 0.8552
35 VCU 1.42 72.84% 0.8353
36 Illinois St. 1.37 74.20% 0.8429
37 Middle Tennessee 1.32 73.82% 0.8323
38 USC 1.09 68.84% 0.7794
39 Seton Hall 1.06 67.75% 0.7949
40 Monmouth 0.99 68.66% 0.7244
41 UNC Wilmington 0.87 65.13% 0.779
42 Michigan 0.62 60.24% 0.8808
43 Michigan St. 0.60 59.96% 0.8269
44 Xavier 0.57 59.04% 0.8245
45 Wake Forest 0.55 59.40% 0.8577
46 Kansas St. 0.44 57.83% 0.8531
47 Vermont 0.37 56.35% 0.7774
48 Providence 0.19 53.01% 0.8081
49 Nevada 0.11 50.55% 0.7823
50 Marquette 0.08 51.13% 0.8593
51 UT Arlington -0.05 47.57% 0.7565
52 Belmont -0.10 46.08% 0.7093
53 Georgia -0.13 47.52% 0.8189
54 TCU -0.54 40.43% 0.8351
55 Texas Tech -0.55 40.00% 0.8515
56 California -0.56 38.74% 0.8447
57 Houston -0.58 38.49% 0.8379
58 Illinois -0.82 36.08% 0.7877
59 Princeton -0.95 29.62% 0.791
60 Rhode Island -0.95 32.51% 0.8341
61 Clemson -1.00 33.57% 0.84
62 Syracuse -1.13 30.95% 0.8131
63 Valparaiso -1.23 25.06% 0.6827
64 East Tennessee St. -1.44 22.98% 0.7836
65 New Mexico St. -1.48 18.98% 0.656
66 Georgia Tech -1.56 24.28% 0.7572
67 Vanderbilt -1.65 24.68% 0.8346
68 Mississippi -1.66 23.24% 0.7183
69 Winthrop -1.71 14.89% 0.6362
70 Akron -1.74 16.98% 0.6268
71 Florida Gulf Coast -1.78 15.28% 0.6255
72 Ohio St. -1.84 21.02% 0.7788
73 College of Charleston -1.90 17.48% 0.7083
74 Auburn -2.07 18.80% 0.7202
75 UCF -2.11 15.81% 0.7669
76 Indiana -2.12 17.18% 0.8199
77 UNC Greensboro -2.17 13.71% 0.599
78 Alabama -2.31 15.34% 0.7989
79 Pittsburgh -2.36 15.73% 0.7467
80 Utah -2.45 11.04% 0.8088
81 Tennessee -2.48 13.98% 0.7906
82 Cal St. Bakersfield -2.48 7.22% 0.6652
83 UNC Asheville -2.56 8.28% 0.679
84 Iowa -2.58 12.52% 0.7543
85 BYU -2.59 10.00% 0.7616
86 Bucknell -2.65 8.34% 0.7229
87 Texas A&M -2.67 11.07% 0.7989
88 Oakland -2.73 7.27% 0.6565
89 Colorado St. -2.97 7.80% 0.6934
90 Harvard -3.17 3.67% 0.6426
91 Memphis -3.23 6.66% 0.7106
92 Arkansas St. -3.23 5.35% 0.6263
93 Boise St. -3.26 6.33% 0.6648
94 Richmond -3.59 5.58% 0.7
95 Stanford -3.72 4.07% 0.6896
96 San Francisco -3.91 2.35% 0.6545
97 North Carolina St. -3.96 4.09% 0.6577
98 Georgetown -4.03 4.40% 0.7893
99 Grand Canyon -4.11 0.96% 0.4774
100 Louisiana Tech -4.11 1.31% 0.7
101 Furman -4.13 2.37% 0.6483
102 Old Dominion -4.31 1.51% 0.6442
103 Fresno St. -4.35 1.97% 0.6614
104 North Carolina Central -4.39 0.35% 0.5195
105 St. Bonaventure -4.40 1.80% 0.6894
106 Nebraska -4.45 2.85% 0.6944
107 Colorado -4.46 2.04% 0.7249
108 Eastern Washington -4.55 0.73% 0.4765
109 George Mason -4.57 1.79% 0.626
110 Texas Southern -4.58 0.45% 0.4229
111 Penn St. -4.64 2.62% 0.7249
112 Yale -4.76 0.60% 0.5245
113 Oklahoma -4.88 1.52% 0.7922
114 Chattanooga -4.90 0.84% 0.6417
115 Rice -4.90 0.42% 0.5559
116 South Dakota -4.91 0.74% 0.5551
117 North Dakota -4.96 0.25% 0.4891
118 George Washington -5.06 1.31% 0.5773
119 Northern Kentucky -5.15 0.45% 0.5323
120 St. John’s -5.22 1.21% 0.7007
121 Davidson -5.25 0.86% 0.7021
122 North Dakota St. -5.25 0.49% 0.5384
123 Temple -5.35 0.72% 0.6268
124 Georgia St. -5.42 0.39% 0.6033
125 Mississippi St. -5.50 0.81% 0.6728
126 Tulsa -5.51 0.61% 0.5743
127 Connecticut -5.52 0.66% 0.7024
128 New Mexico -5.54 0.60% 0.5805
129 San Diego St. -5.58 0.44% 0.7262
130 Ohio -5.58 0.31% 0.6607
131 New Orleans -5.94 0.04% 0.4858
132 Texas A&M Corpus Chris -5.96 0.03% 0.3947
133 Louisiana Lafayette -5.96 0.16% 0.5469
134 Tennessee Martin -6.01 0.11% 0.4092
135 Towson -6.02 0.32% 0.5903
136 Wright St. -6.02 0.23% 0.5108
137 Arizona St. -6.05 0.35% 0.5645
138 Fort Wayne -6.10 0.09% 0.5421
139 New Hampshire -6.10 0.07% 0.5195
140 Texas -6.13 0.45% 0.7497
141 Lehigh -6.28 0.11% 0.6251
142 William & Mary -6.46 0.08% 0.5592
143 Ball St. -6.47 0.08% 0.481
144 Rutgers -6.49 0.18% 0.5571
145 Iona -6.57 0.09% 0.574
146 La Salle -6.62 0.15% 0.5519
147 Northern Iowa -6.63 0.15% 0.5029
148 Georgia Southern -6.74 0.08% 0.5189
149 Albany -6.75 0.03% 0.5637
150 Loyola Marymount -6.77 0.04% 0.5
151 Loyola Chicago -6.82 0.08% 0.6749
152 Marshall -6.90 0.05% 0.5156
153 Nebraska Omaha -6.93 0.05% 0.4452
154 Sam Houston St. -6.93 0.01% 0.3457
155 Green Bay -6.94 0.03% 0.4805
156 Wyoming -7.01 0.08% 0.5527
157 Saint Peter’s -7.03 0.03% 0.6547
158 Elon -7.08 0.05% 0.5686
159 Houston Baptist -7.12 0.01% 0.3996
160 Lipscomb -7.20 0.02% 0.5295
161 Kent St. -7.22 0.04% 0.5386
162 Washington St. -7.24 0.06% 0.4247
163 Liberty -7.25 0.01% 0.408
164 UC Irvine -7.28 0.01% 0.5284
165 Alcorn St. -7.32 0.00% 0.2238
166 Southern Illinois -7.35 0.03% 0.5271
167 Santa Clara -7.35 0.02% 0.5525
168 Texas St. -7.40 0.01% 0.4359
169 Weber St. -7.43 0.01% 0.4762
170 Tennessee St. -7.47 0.01% 0.5143
171 Penn -7.54 0.01% 0.528
172 Stony Brook -7.55 0.01% 0.4079
173 UMBC -7.61 0.01% 0.4452
174 Gardner Webb -7.68 0.00% 0.4393
175 UC Davis -7.68 0.00% 0.3652
176 LSU -7.78 0.06% 0.5235
177 Buffalo -7.87 0.01% 0.5874
178 UAB -7.91 0.01% 0.4648
179 Stephen F. Austin -7.92 0.00% 0.3465
180 Samford -8.09 0.00% 0.5053
181 Boston University -8.17 0.00% 0.4583
182 San Jose St. -8.18 0.01% 0.4114
183 Mount St. Mary’s -8.27 0.00% 0.3806
184 Northeastern -8.32 0.01% 0.556
185 East Carolina -8.39 0.00% 0.4211
186 Fairfield -8.52 0.00% 0.4104
187 Missouri St. -8.60 0.00% 0.5534
188 Canisius -8.62 0.00% 0.4634
189 Denver -8.66 0.00% 0.471
190 Evansville -8.71 0.00% 0.5167
191 Western Michigan -8.72 0.00% 0.5238
192 LIU Brooklyn -8.78 0.00% 0.3066
193 Jacksonville St. -8.84 0.00% 0.4486
194 Coastal Carolina -8.88 0.00% 0.4347
195 Idaho -8.94 0.00% 0.3468
196 Troy -9.08 0.00% 0.5
197 Eastern Michigan -9.08 0.00% 0.5671
198 UMKC -9.15 0.00% 0.3722
199 Massachusetts -9.20 0.00% 0.5227
200 Charlotte -9.28 0.00% 0.3291
201 Wofford -9.29 0.00% 0.5315
202 Utah St. -9.32 0.00% 0.5407
203 Central Michigan -9.40 0.00% 0.3536
204 San Diego -9.42 0.00% 0.2915
205 Mercer -9.42 0.00% 0.5447
206 Toledo -9.48 0.00% 0.5526
207 Boston College -9.54 0.00% 0.5138
208 Rider -9.56 0.00% 0.4118
209 Morehead St. -9.57 0.00% 0.4265
210 Columbia -9.58 0.00% 0.3608
211 Siena -9.59 0.00% 0.4783
212 Hawaii -9.67 0.00% 0.2759
213 Wagner -9.95 0.00% 0.326
214 Utah Valley -9.96 0.00% 0.4361
215 Loyola MD -10.07 0.00% 0.3065
216 Hofstra -10.09 0.00% 0.4872
217 Portland St. -10.11 0.00% 0.3383
218 DePaul -10.22 0.00% 0.4807
219 Holy Cross -10.22 0.00% 0.3806
220 Lamar -10.24 0.00% 0.3522
221 Fordham -10.25 0.00% 0.4393
222 Washington -10.30 0.00% 0.4894
223 Nicholls St. -10.34 0.00% 0.1943
224 Norfolk St. -10.38 0.00% 0.2001
225 Western Kentucky -10.39 0.00% 0.335
226 South Dakota St. -10.40 0.00% 0.4465
227 Long Beach St. -10.48 0.00% 0.3329
228 Montana -10.52 0.00% 0.4118
229 USC Upstate -10.54 0.00% 0.3439
230 Little Rock -10.62 0.00% 0.306
231 UTEP -10.64 0.00% 0.4046
232 Montana St. -10.66 0.00% 0.3297
233 High Point -10.67 0.00% 0.299
234 Saint Joseph’s -10.70 0.00% 0.4833
235 Navy -10.71 0.00% 0.3869
236 Northern Illinois -10.73 0.00% 0.3923
237 Cal St. Fullerton -10.75 0.00% 0.2352
238 IUPUI -10.76 0.00% 0.4271
239 Seattle -10.82 0.00% 0.2519
240 Brown -10.98 0.00% 0.2624
241 Radford -11.03 0.00% 0.2224
242 Savannah St. -11.24 0.00% 0.1858
243 Morgan St. -11.26 0.00% 0.1477
244 Indiana St. -11.29 0.00% 0.4349
245 South Alabama -11.32 0.00% 0.3395
246 St. Francis PA -11.36 0.00% 0.3008
247 Bradley -11.37 0.00% 0.373
248 Southeastern Louisiana -11.41 0.00% 0.3363
249 South Carolina St. -11.47 0.00% 0.1111
250 Murray St. -11.48 0.00% 0.4345
251 Saint Louis -11.53 0.00% 0.2409
252 Eastern Illinois -11.66 0.00% 0.361
253 Southern -11.77 0.00% 0.1751
254 Bowling Green -11.77 0.00% 0.3182
255 Hampton -11.78 0.00% 0.1792
256 Abilene Christian -11.87 0.00% 0.2082
257 Cal St. Northridge -11.90 0.00% 0.2766
258 Jacksonville -11.91 0.00% 0.2637
259 UNLV -11.94 0.00% 0.3049
260 North Florida -11.94 0.00% 0.2906
261 Missouri -12.23 0.00% 0.5029
262 Southeast Missouri St. -12.40 0.00% 0.3685
263 Campbell -12.41 0.00% 0.1944
264 Northwestern St. -12.43 0.00% 0.2033
265 Incarnate Word -12.45 0.00% 0.2151
266 UTSA -12.55 0.00% 0.2558
267 Kennesaw St. -12.58 0.00% 0.3105
268 Sacramento St. -12.60 0.00% 0.2053
269 Illinois Chicago -12.67 0.00% 0.3142
270 Robert Morris -12.72 0.00% 0.2611
271 Grambling St. -12.75 0.00% 0.1203
272 Florida Atlantic -12.82 0.00% 0.2896
273 Pacific -12.94 0.00% 0.3158
274 Duquesne -12.95 0.00% 0.3818
275 South Florida -12.98 0.00% 0.2142
276 Northern Colorado -13.04 0.00% 0.229
277 Charleston Southern -13.15 0.00% 0.1962
278 Army -13.20 0.00% 0.3347
279 Portland -13.25 0.00% 0.2409
280 Prairie View A&M -13.27 0.00% 0.1835
281 Delaware -13.30 0.00% 0.2019
282 Air Force -13.34 0.00% 0.3739
283 Pepperdine -13.38 0.00% 0.2152
284 Eastern Kentucky -13.39 0.00% 0.26
285 Jackson St. -13.52 0.00% 0.143
286 Maryland Eastern Shore -13.53 0.00% 0.1812
287 Cal Poly -13.75 0.00% 0.2176
288 The Citadel -13.88 0.00% 0.2419
289 Austin Peay -13.94 0.00% 0.2421
290 Cornell -14.23 0.00% 0.2742
291 Appalachian St. -14.26 0.00% 0.2768
292 Fairleigh Dickinson -14.29 0.00% 0.279
293 Western Illinois -14.46 0.00% 0.2064
294 Miami OH -14.49 0.00% 0.23
295 Western Carolina -14.53 0.00% 0.1556
296 Tulane -14.55 0.00% 0.3224
297 Cleveland St. -14.66 0.00% 0.341
298 NJIT -14.68 0.00% 0.2409
299 Quinnipiac -14.73 0.00% 0.2397
300 Tennessee Tech -14.74 0.00% 0.2883
301 Dartmouth -14.76 0.00% 0.1943
302 Manhattan -14.93 0.00% 0.2275
303 Bryant -15.00 0.00% 0.2509
304 Youngstown St. -15.04 0.00% 0.2146
305 Oral Roberts -15.06 0.00% 0.3379
306 Southern Miss -15.34 0.00% 0.1494
307 Binghamton -15.42 0.00% 0.1783
308 Sacred Heart -15.44 0.00% 0.206
309 McNeese St. -15.46 0.00% 0.1707
310 Louisiana Monroe -15.64 0.00% 0.2941
311 UT Rio Grande Valley -15.67 0.00% 0.1974
312 UMass Lowell -15.75 0.00% 0.2369
313 Oregon St. -15.86 0.00% 0.2543
314 Colgate -15.87 0.00% 0.2573
315 North Texas -15.88 0.00% 0.1587
316 Central Arkansas -15.91 0.00% 0.2092
317 UC Santa Barbara -16.06 0.00% 0.0964
318 Detroit -16.11 0.00% 0.24
319 Lafayette -16.12 0.00% 0.134
320 UC Riverside -16.21 0.00% 0.1582
321 Drake -16.24 0.00% 0.299
322 James Madison -16.25 0.00% 0.3444
323 Drexel -16.36 0.00% 0.3298
324 Howard -16.44 0.00% 0.0976
325 VMI -16.50 0.00% 0.1546
326 Stetson -16.57 0.00% 0.1749
327 American -16.61 0.00% 0.185
328 Delaware St. -16.62 0.00% 0.1015
329 Alabama St. -16.66 0.00% 0.0783
330 Coppin St. -17.05 0.00% 0.0872
331 Marist -17.22 0.00% 0.1803
332 Milwaukee -17.38 0.00% 0.2364
333 Niagara -17.40 0.00% 0.2849
334 Chicago St. -17.53 0.00% 0.094
335 Mississippi Valley St. -17.59 0.00% 0.0753
336 Idaho St. -17.74 0.00% 0.1437
337 Northern Arizona -17.78 0.00% 0.1342
338 Bethune Cookman -18.04 0.00% 0.0997
339 Hartford -18.40 0.00% 0.1143
340 Florida A&M -18.44 0.00% 0.0831
341 FIU -18.79 0.00% 0.2174
342 Maine -18.88 0.00% 0.1006
343 SIU Edwardsville -19.27 0.00% 0.1698
344 Longwood -19.46 0.00% 0.0595
345 Central Connecticut -19.86 0.00% 0.0883
346 Arkansas Pine Bluff -20.41 0.00% 0.0499
347 Southern Utah -20.51 0.00% 0.1284
348 Presbyterian -20.60 0.00% 0.0371
349 Alabama A&M -22.18 0.00% 0.0369
350 St. Francis NY -22.78 0.00% 0.058
351 North Carolina A&T -24.51 0.00% 0.0447
Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: