WAB 2/22: Ben Alamar asks the question

Resume or power rating? Should we use the former for selection, and the latter for seeding?

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/18724623

He suggests that selection should be based on Strength of Record “SOR or a similar metric that measures accomplishment on a game-by-game basis should be the metric of choice. That evaluation lands Maryland in the tournament, and the hypothetical winless team is out. (Editors note: The winless team is a Jeff Sagarin thought experiment about an elite team that goes winless against an incredibly difficult slate of road games.)

Seeding is a different decision, however. Once the field of 68 has been determined, the seeds should reflect the quality of the teams. We want the best teams to have the top seeds, which requires a predictive measure of team quality such as BPI (Sagarin, Ken Pomeroy and others have their own predictive rankings as well). Using BPI to seed the tournament right now gives Maryland a 9- or 10-seed.

This two-stage process allows teams to earn their way into the tournament without worrying about whether they win by “enough” to satisfy a metric that utilizes scoring margin, but also does not overseed a team just because a few close games happened to go its way.

The committee will consider this and other options over the next year before determining how best to revise the process, but in the end, in some fashion, the NCAA has to address the fundamental difference between best and most deserving.”

The committee has done a good job of conflating “best” and “most deserving”. Admittedly, there are times when they are clear, such as when they refer to the “eye test”. However, in general they refer to the total body-of-work, which I would expect to refer to a team’s resume (Who did you beat, where did you play them, who did you lose to, etc.). Their guideline specifically says to invite the 36 best at-large teams, based on results. As far as I can tell, the KenPom or BPI ratings would satisfy that requirement. Right now, the committee is clearly using both, for seeding, as well as selection. Hopefully, the future will offer some clarity on the subject.

I expect the winner of the Louisville-UNC game to jump into the top 4 of the WAB standings tomorrow. However, the only game that really matters is Duke-Syracuse. For one night, Syracuse is America’s team. Go Orange!

WAB Rank School WAB-AVG Pythag Pythag Rank
1 Kansas 9.43 0.9496 8
2 Villanova 8.87 0.9635 2
3 Baylor 7.16 0.9380 13
4 Gonzaga 7.14 0.9716 1
5 North Carolina 6.72 0.9579 5
6 Louisville 6.56 0.9569 6
7 Florida 6.38 0.9593 4
8 Duke 5.77 0.9442 10
9 Kentucky 5.75 0.9504 7
10 Arizona 5.71 0.9170 21
11 Wisconsin 5.35 0.9317 16
12 UCLA 5.03 0.9334 15
13 Cincinnati 5.00 0.9195 20
14 Purdue 4.80 0.9441 11
15 Oregon 4.70 0.9410 12
16 Florida St. 4.68 0.9250 18
17 Butler 4.64 0.9057 26
18 Maryland 4.60 0.8665 31
19 Notre Dame 4.55 0.9107 23
20 West Virginia 4.55 0.9610 3
21 Creighton 4.41 0.9095 24
22 SMU 3.83 0.9270 17
23 Virginia 3.40 0.9476 9
24 Saint Mary’s 3.21 0.9227 19
25 Oklahoma St. 3.19 0.9072 25
26 Iowa St. 3.13 0.9150 22
27 Wichita St. 3.09 0.9378 14
28 Virginia Tech 2.84 0.8259 47
29 Xavier 2.56 0.8588 36
30 Miami FL 2.43 0.8836 28
31 Minnesota 2.31 0.8572 38
32 USC 2.09 0.7864 61
33 South Carolina 2.03 0.8678 30
34 VCU 1.80 0.8446 41
35 Dayton 1.76 0.8658 32
36 Northwestern 1.75 0.8437 42
37 Arkansas 1.75 0.8238 50
38 Illinois St. 1.39 0.8160 54
39 Middle Tennessee 1.15 0.8241 49
40 Kansas St. 1.02 0.8796 29
41 TCU 0.66 0.8387 43
42 UNC Wilmington 0.52 0.7780 63
43 Vermont 0.51 0.7415 73
44 Monmouth 0.48 0.7205 84
45 Michigan St. 0.43 0.8199 52
46 Seton Hall 0.35 0.8009 57
47 Michigan 0.20 0.8880 27
48 Marquette 0.10 0.8644 33
49 Nevada -0.09 0.7660 66
50 California -0.16 0.8271 46
51 Wake Forest -0.23 0.8615 35
52 UT Arlington -0.26 0.7514 72
53 Belmont -0.28 0.7188 85
54 Texas Tech -0.54 0.8629 34
55 Clemson -0.61 0.8582 37
56 New Mexico St. -0.67 0.6568 102
57 Tennessee -0.70 0.8347 44
58 Valparaiso -0.76 0.6700 100
59 Providence -0.81 0.7992 58
60 Pittsburgh -0.87 0.7871 60
61 Auburn -0.91 0.7327 80
62 East Tennessee St. -0.96 0.7549 70
63 Akron -1.04 0.6538 105
64 Georgia -1.04 0.8200 51
65 Alabama -1.07 0.7982 59
66 Mississippi -1.16 0.7558 69
67 Princeton -1.26 0.7525 71
68 Rhode Island -1.32 0.8177 53
69 Syracuse -1.34 0.8339 45
70 Georgia Tech -1.35 0.7238 82
71 Houston -1.37 0.8453 39
72 Illinois -1.40 0.7744 64
73 Winthrop -1.46 0.6090 118
74 Georgetown -1.76 0.8242 48
75 Florida Gulf Coast -1.84 0.6255 111
76 UNC Asheville -1.84 0.6568 103
77 College of Charleston -2.08 0.6821 97
78 Boise St. -2.09 0.6865 93
79 Indiana -2.11 0.8449 40
80 Chattanooga -2.21 0.6558 104
81 Vanderbilt -2.29 0.8062 55
82 Memphis -2.45 0.7038 88
83 Arkansas St. -2.48 0.6218 112
84 Bucknell -2.53 0.6925 92
85 Cal St. Bakersfield -2.67 0.6365 110
86 Utah -2.68 0.8053 56
87 Ohio St. -2.70 0.7742 65
88 Texas A&M -2.77 0.7825 62
89 UNC Greensboro -2.83 0.5617 134
90 UCF -2.88 0.7370 77
91 Iowa -2.96 0.7396 75
92 North Carolina St. -3.03 0.6850 94
93 Nebraska -3.10 0.7355 78
94 Oakland -3.17 0.6198 113
95 Colorado St. -3.23 0.6929 91
96 Stanford -3.24 0.6725 99
97 Penn St. -3.27 0.7402 74
98 Harvard -3.29 0.6183 114
99 San Francisco -3.29 0.6466 108
100 Colorado -3.50 0.7376 76
101 North Carolina Central -3.52 0.5029 167
102 Furman -3.57 0.6426 109
103 Louisiana Tech -3.59 0.6836 95
104 BYU -3.67 0.7252 81
105 George Mason -3.82 0.6475 107
106 Connecticut -3.83 0.7227 83
107 Richmond -3.85 0.6681 101
108 Ohio -4.00 0.6767 98
109 St. Bonaventure -4.07 0.7125 86
110 San Diego St. -4.09 0.7350 79
111 Grand Canyon -4.14 0.4560 186
112 Yale -4.25 0.5256 151
113 Temple -4.33 0.6517 106
114 North Dakota St. -4.48 0.5441 144
115 Eastern Washington -4.50 0.4779 177
116 Old Dominion -4.50 0.6076 119
117 Texas Southern -4.64 0.4149 206
118 Davidson -4.71 0.7108 87
119 Oklahoma -4.80 0.7644 67
120 Mississippi St. -4.80 0.7024 89
121 Georgia St. -4.88 0.5812 127
122 New Mexico -4.92 0.6003 121
123 Towson -4.93 0.5753 129
124 La Salle -4.94 0.6090 117
125 North Dakota -4.99 0.5056 163
126 Rutgers -5.07 0.5944 122
127 South Dakota -5.08 0.5307 147
128 Northern Iowa -5.15 0.5448 142
129 Rice -5.16 0.5541 138
130 Fresno St. -5.19 0.6161 116
131 New Orleans -5.23 0.4144 207
132 Texas -5.27 0.7639 68
133 Wright St. -5.33 0.4876 174
134 St. John’s -5.33 0.6938 90
135 Fort Wayne -5.37 0.5758 128
136 Texas A&M Corpus Chris -5.38 0.3656 220
137 Northern Kentucky -5.44 0.5045 165
138 George Washington -5.55 0.5672 132
139 Tulsa -5.70 0.5673 131
140 Arizona St. -5.70 0.5743 130
141 William & Mary -5.79 0.5860 126
142 Weber St. -5.84 0.5042 166
143 Iona -5.90 0.5518 140
144 Tennessee St. -5.95 0.4903 171
145 Ball St. -5.97 0.5149 158
146 San Jose St. -6.06 0.4314 197
147 Loyola Chicago -6.08 0.6826 96
148 Green Bay -6.08 0.5135 159
149 Tennessee Martin -6.12 0.4019 208
150 Stony Brook -6.17 0.4332 194
151 Sam Houston St. -6.20 0.3520 227
152 Elon -6.21 0.5494 141
153 Georgia Southern -6.24 0.4876 173
154 Lehigh -6.27 0.6059 120
155 Albany -6.28 0.5589 135
156 Marshall -6.33 0.5317 146
157 UMBC -6.36 0.4279 199
158 New Hampshire -6.40 0.4875 175
159 UC Irvine -6.45 0.5537 139
160 Louisiana Lafayette -6.45 0.5321 145
161 Washington St. -6.61 0.4318 195
162 Wyoming -6.63 0.5278 149
163 Liberty -6.67 0.4246 201
164 Penn -6.75 0.5446 143
165 Denver -6.93 0.5023 168
166 Canisius -6.94 0.4875 176
167 Samford -6.96 0.4940 170
168 Loyola Marymount -7.10 0.4893 172
169 Buffalo -7.12 0.5928 123
170 Southern Illinois -7.15 0.4979 169
171 Nebraska Omaha -7.16 0.4350 192
172 Lipscomb -7.21 0.5121 161
173 UAB -7.26 0.4768 178
174 Santa Clara -7.30 0.5862 125
175 Stephen F. Austin -7.38 0.3292 242
176 Saint Peter’s -7.38 0.6168 115
177 Boston University -7.39 0.4569 185
178 Mount St. Mary’s -7.39 0.3878 213
179 Kent St. -7.45 0.5212 154
180 Houston Baptist -7.47 0.3330 241
181 Missouri St. -7.49 0.5912 124
182 Alcorn St. -7.49 0.2089 299
183 Texas St. -7.56 0.4011 209
184 Massachusetts -7.58 0.5584 136
185 Central Michigan -7.66 0.4229 204
186 UC Davis -7.67 0.3708 219
187 LSU -7.71 0.4732 180
188 UMKC -7.75 0.3539 226
189 Troy -7.78 0.5126 160
190 Gardner Webb -7.87 0.4350 193
191 East Carolina -7.96 0.4236 202
192 Jacksonville St. -8.02 0.4190 205
193 LIU Brooklyn -8.09 0.2881 261
194 Saint Joseph’s -8.14 0.5288 148
195 Coastal Carolina -8.15 0.4278 200
196 Loyola MD -8.25 0.3111 252
197 Northeastern -8.30 0.5268 150
198 Charlotte -8.38 0.3240 245
199 Boston College -8.38 0.5541 137
200 Long Beach St. -8.45 0.3626 221
201 Toledo -8.54 0.5656 133
202 Morehead St. -8.66 0.4570 184
203 USC Upstate -8.69 0.3469 229
204 Utah St. -8.70 0.5160 157
205 Evansville -8.79 0.5092 162
206 Western Michigan -8.83 0.4753 179
207 Fairfield -8.89 0.3876 214
208 Western Kentucky -8.89 0.3582 222
209 Columbia -8.92 0.3961 211
210 Idaho -8.95 0.3555 225
211 Wofford -8.99 0.5053 164
212 Wagner -9.06 0.3456 231
213 Fordham -9.07 0.4580 183
214 Mercer -9.08 0.5246 152
215 Northern Illinois -9.09 0.4402 190
216 Eastern Michigan -9.14 0.5204 155
217 Washington -9.16 0.5189 156
218 Siena -9.22 0.4640 182
219 San Diego -9.26 0.3244 243
220 DePaul -9.40 0.4678 181
221 Navy -9.43 0.4381 191
222 Holy Cross -9.48 0.3798 217
223 Montana -9.51 0.4422 189
224 Norfolk St. -9.56 0.1904 308
225 Lamar -9.57 0.3168 249
226 Rider -9.67 0.3852 216
227 Hawaii -9.68 0.3362 239
228 Cal St. Fullerton -9.81 0.2515 278
229 High Point -9.82 0.3023 256
230 Little Rock -9.85 0.3425 235
231 Murray St. -9.93 0.4549 187
232 South Alabama -10.01 0.3577 224
233 IUPUI -10.02 0.4236 203
234 Portland St. -10.09 0.3439 234
235 Jacksonville -10.11 0.2637 273
236 Cal St. Northridge -10.17 0.2928 260
237 Radford -10.23 0.2365 285
238 Abilene Christian -10.32 0.2046 302
239 UNLV -10.33 0.3498 228
240 Seattle -10.34 0.2662 272
241 South Dakota St. -10.45 0.4286 198
242 Brown -10.48 0.2701 268
243 Utah Valley -10.49 0.3580 223
244 Nicholls St. -10.60 0.1447 322
245 Hofstra -10.65 0.4539 188
246 Montana St. -10.68 0.3230 247
247 Duquesne -10.69 0.3931 212
248 Southeastern Louisiana -10.69 0.3123 251
249 Eastern Illinois -10.72 0.3967 210
250 Southern -10.79 0.1665 316
251 UTEP -10.83 0.3714 218
252 Indiana St. -10.86 0.4314 196
253 Bowling Green -10.88 0.3227 248
254 Missouri -10.90 0.5228 153
255 Hampton -10.94 0.1775 312
256 Saint Louis -11.24 0.2382 284
257 Illinois Chicago -11.27 0.3376 237
258 Morgan St. -11.28 0.1371 324
259 Pacific -11.38 0.3365 238
260 St. Francis PA -11.43 0.2760 267
261 Sacramento St. -11.50 0.2298 289
262 Savannah St. -11.52 0.1368 325
263 South Carolina St. -11.60 0.0959 337
264 Portland -11.60 0.2663 271
265 Campbell -11.63 0.2140 294
266 Southeast Missouri St. -11.63 0.3459 230
267 Fairleigh Dickinson -11.65 0.2772 266
268 Incarnate Word -11.67 0.1886 309
269 Bradley -11.72 0.3445 233
270 Northwestern St. -11.76 0.1924 307
271 Kennesaw St. -11.83 0.2968 258
272 UTSA -11.90 0.2309 288
273 Grambling St. -11.90 0.0986 336
274 North Florida -11.98 0.3047 254
275 Florida Atlantic -11.99 0.2943 259
276 Pepperdine -12.04 0.2273 290
277 Northern Colorado -12.08 0.2393 283
278 Delaware -12.09 0.2029 303
279 Air Force -12.13 0.3861 215
280 Tennessee Tech -12.16 0.3081 253
281 South Florida -12.30 0.2221 291
282 Prairie View A&M -12.32 0.1654 318
283 Appalachian St. -12.34 0.3138 250
284 Charleston Southern -12.54 0.2089 300
285 Western Illinois -12.57 0.2189 293
286 Cornell -12.63 0.2825 265
287 Jackson St. -12.64 0.1450 321
288 Army -12.65 0.3006 257
289 Maryland Eastern Shore -12.68 0.1708 315
290 Binghamton -12.75 0.1984 305
291 Sacred Heart -12.76 0.2100 297
292 Quinnipiac -12.98 0.2692 269
293 Robert Morris -13.01 0.2599 275
294 Dartmouth -13.04 0.2210 292
295 UC Riverside -13.17 0.2091 298
296 Austin Peay -13.19 0.2133 295
297 Bryant -13.24 0.2541 277
298 Eastern Kentucky -13.43 0.2577 276
299 The Citadel -13.48 0.1829 311
300 Manhattan -13.50 0.2447 282
301 Miami OH -13.79 0.2454 281
302 McNeese St. -13.88 0.1366 326
303 Western Carolina -13.91 0.1299 328
304 UT Rio Grande Valley -13.95 0.2055 301
305 Cal Poly -13.95 0.1932 306
306 NJIT -14.04 0.2628 274
307 Oral Roberts -14.12 0.3352 240
308 North Texas -14.14 0.1990 304
309 VMI -14.16 0.1622 319
310 Colgate -14.17 0.2874 262
311 Youngstown St. -14.17 0.2130 296
312 Central Arkansas -14.26 0.1855 310
313 Tulane -14.63 0.3242 244
314 Southern Miss -14.71 0.1196 332
315 Cleveland St. -14.73 0.3234 246
316 Alabama St. -14.76 0.0937 338
317 Drake -14.79 0.3044 255
318 Oregon St. -14.80 0.2870 263
319 UMass Lowell -14.81 0.2464 280
320 Lafayette -14.84 0.1290 330
321 Drexel -14.85 0.3417 236
322 Louisiana Monroe -14.98 0.2679 270
323 Stetson -15.31 0.1656 317
324 Howard -15.50 0.0915 341
325 Detroit -15.59 0.2313 287
326 Niagara -15.64 0.2867 264
327 Milwaukee -15.65 0.2499 279
328 James Madison -15.66 0.3449 232
329 Delaware St. -15.67 0.0996 335
330 UC Santa Barbara -15.98 0.1193 333
331 Idaho St. -16.03 0.1395 323
332 American -16.06 0.1739 314
333 Coppin St. -16.13 0.0706 344
334 Chicago St. -16.16 0.0919 339
335 Marist -16.59 0.1754 313
336 Longwood -16.69 0.0643 347
337 Northern Arizona -16.89 0.1344 327
338 Hartford -16.97 0.1211 331
339 FIU -17.04 0.2335 286
340 Bethune Cookman -17.43 0.0841 342
341 Florida A&M -17.52 0.0722 343
342 Mississippi Valley St. -17.58 0.0690 345
343 Presbyterian -18.24 0.0430 350
344 Arkansas Pine Bluff -18.36 0.0627 348
345 Southern Utah -18.67 0.1295 329
346 Maine -18.74 0.1101 334
347 North Carolina A&T -18.83 0.0452 349
348 Central Connecticut -18.88 0.0919 340
349 SIU Edwardsville -19.24 0.1467 320
350 St. Francis NY -21.02 0.0658 346
351 Alabama A&M -21.26 0.0291 351
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