WAB 2/21: What’s up with Virginia

I’ve never seen a team just go cold the way they have. I’m wondering if opponents have scouted them and are somehow keeping them away from the spots they like on the floor, but this effect is too extreme to not have a significant luck component.

In other news, Baylor is going to have play some serious ball to keep North Carolina or Louisville from surpassing them on the 1-line (as far as WAB goes).

Finally, I am working on hardwiring implied Pythag, but I still need to solve the problem of differentiating undefeated teams. Also, Arizona has the fourth best implied Pythag, which I find fascinating. They are barely a 2-seed IMHO, so I’m going to need to dig into that to discover what the story is.

These numbers are just from KenPom. I don’t have time to run the rest today.

WAB Rank School WAB Bubble Percentile Pythag
1 Kansas 9.22 100.00% 0.9442
2 Villanova 8.63 100.00% 0.9607
3 Gonzaga 7.06 100.00% 0.9771
4 Baylor 6.59 99.88% 0.9464
5 North Carolina 6.43 99.84% 0.9495
6 Louisville 6.32 99.82% 0.9564
7 Florida 5.83 99.58% 0.9573
8 Arizona 5.58 99.76% 0.9135
9 Duke 5.47 99.61% 0.9323
10 Kentucky 5.33 99.36% 0.9519
11 Wisconsin 4.98 99.02% 0.9353
12 Cincinnati 4.86 99.47% 0.9154
13 UCLA 4.77 99.32% 0.9155
14 Oregon 4.50 98.42% 0.9312
15 Butler 4.39 97.27% 0.8996
16 Florida St. 4.34 97.91% 0.9228
17 West Virginia 4.33 98.01% 0.9576
18 Maryland 4.28 97.79% 0.8638
19 Notre Dame 4.27 97.43% 0.897
20 Creighton 4.15 97.41% 0.9048
21 Purdue 4.09 97.41% 0.941
22 SMU 3.65 96.11% 0.929
23 Saint Mary’s 3.16 96.41% 0.927
24 Virginia 3.08 91.61% 0.9519
25 Oklahoma St. 2.97 91.65% 0.8989
26 Wichita St. 2.94 93.39% 0.9359
27 Iowa St. 2.88 90.67% 0.9063
28 Xavier 2.36 85.48% 0.8508
29 Virginia Tech 2.16 85.68% 0.817
30 Miami FL 2.09 84.12% 0.8777
31 Minnesota 2.09 82.70% 0.858
32 Northwestern 1.98 82.16% 0.8614
33 South Carolina 1.95 80.78% 0.8923
34 USC 1.84 81.48% 0.7771
35 VCU 1.80 79.54% 0.8441
36 Arkansas 1.62 77.80% 0.8099
37 Dayton 1.53 77.19% 0.8651
38 Illinois St. 1.35 74.45% 0.8307
39 Middle Tennessee 1.14 71.10% 0.8386
40 Kansas St. 0.82 65.34% 0.8817
41 UNC Wilmington 0.64 61.31% 0.7868
42 Vermont 0.57 60.79% 0.7543
43 TCU 0.49 59.16% 0.8386
44 Monmouth 0.37 56.68% 0.7074
45 Michigan St. 0.23 54.13% 0.8117
46 Seton Hall 0.16 52.92% 0.7932
47 Michigan -0.06 48.57% 0.8709
48 Nevada -0.12 46.27% 0.7466
49 Akron -0.25 42.33% 0.6509
50 UT Arlington -0.26 43.30% 0.7576
51 California -0.27 43.86% 0.8349
52 Belmont -0.28 42.02% 0.7139
53 Marquette -0.33 43.67% 0.8434
54 Clemson -0.38 43.16% 0.8454
55 Wake Forest -0.47 41.45% 0.8516
56 New Mexico St. -0.60 34.34% 0.668
57 Tennessee -0.70 37.16% 0.8386
58 Texas Tech -0.71 36.53% 0.8498
59 East Tennessee St. -0.79 32.80% 0.7896
60 Georgia Tech -0.80 35.24% 0.7521
61 Valparaiso -0.89 29.56% 0.6889
62 Providence -1.06 31.00% 0.7938
63 Georgia -1.12 30.50% 0.8252
64 Alabama -1.16 29.02% 0.7938
65 Pittsburgh -1.20 29.13% 0.7567
66 Auburn -1.29 27.73% 0.7029
67 Princeton -1.30 22.93% 0.7641
68 Houston -1.40 23.93% 0.8371
69 Winthrop -1.49 18.73% 0.6239
70 Syracuse -1.54 24.11% 0.8155
71 Mississippi -1.63 22.35% 0.7345
72 Rhode Island -1.80 18.79% 0.804
73 Florida Gulf Coast -1.81 14.84% 0.6225
74 UNC Asheville -1.82 15.04% 0.6749
75 Indiana -1.86 18.61% 0.8251
76 Chattanooga -1.96 15.23% 0.7044
77 College of Charleston -1.97 16.45% 0.7153
78 Illinois -2.00 17.94% 0.7435
79 Georgetown -2.03 18.22% 0.812
80 Boise St. -2.11 14.20% 0.6869
81 Vanderbilt -2.35 15.57% 0.7953
82 Arkansas St. -2.41 10.54% 0.6508
83 Bucknell -2.49 9.88% 0.7104
84 Memphis -2.54 10.61% 0.7043
85 UNC Greensboro -2.61 8.58% 0.5881
86 Cal St. Bakersfield -2.67 5.59% 0.6615
87 Ohio St. -2.87 9.65% 0.7624
88 Texas A&M -2.91 7.64% 0.7807
89 Utah -2.94 6.54% 0.8024
90 UCF -2.99 6.93% 0.7489
91 Oakland -3.17 3.96% 0.6146
92 Penn St. -3.18 7.77% 0.7239
93 San Francisco -3.29 3.99% 0.6552
94 Nebraska -3.33 6.79% 0.7281
95 Harvard -3.34 2.78% 0.6207
96 Furman -3.37 4.80% 0.655
97 Stanford -3.42 4.89% 0.6834
98 North Carolina Central -3.47 1.36% 0.547
99 Louisiana Tech -3.51 2.22% 0.6993
100 Iowa -3.55 4.99% 0.7212
101 Colorado St. -3.56 3.71% 0.6886
102 George Mason -3.65 3.68% 0.6426
103 BYU -3.70 3.33% 0.7171
104 Colorado -3.80 3.68% 0.7314
105 North Carolina St. -3.82 3.64% 0.6458
106 Connecticut -4.01 2.67% 0.7098
107 Mississippi St. -4.01 3.05% 0.694
108 San Diego St. -4.12 1.92% 0.7381
109 Ohio -4.13 1.39% 0.6655
110 St. Bonaventure -4.14 1.89% 0.7015
111 Grand Canyon -4.15 0.82% 0.4688
112 New Mexico -4.18 2.29% 0.6111
113 Richmond -4.18 2.56% 0.6531
114 Davidson -4.26 1.80% 0.7114
115 Yale -4.26 0.92% 0.5192
116 La Salle -4.37 1.70% 0.6138
117 Temple -4.47 1.81% 0.6363
118 Old Dominion -4.48 1.12% 0.6221
119 North Dakota St. -4.52 1.00% 0.5467
120 Eastern Washington -4.54 0.67% 0.4818
121 Wright St. -4.58 1.05% 0.4946
122 Texas Southern -4.58 0.41% 0.4227
123 Towson -4.84 0.98% 0.585
124 Oklahoma -4.87 1.13% 0.7419
125 Georgia St. -4.89 0.57% 0.5899
126 North Dakota -5.02 0.21% 0.4945
127 New Orleans -5.13 0.14% 0.4744
128 Rice -5.15 0.22% 0.5661
129 South Dakota -5.15 0.43% 0.5416
130 Rutgers -5.20 0.67% 0.5881
131 Texas A&M Corpus Chris -5.25 0.08% 0.386
132 St. John’s -5.26 0.82% 0.7032
133 Northern Iowa -5.27 0.65% 0.5501
134 Fresno St. -5.30 0.45% 0.6093
135 Fort Wayne -5.42 0.19% 0.542
136 Texas -5.49 0.73% 0.7538
137 Northern Kentucky -5.53 0.19% 0.5217
138 William & Mary -5.68 0.21% 0.5917
139 George Washington -5.69 0.46% 0.5482
140 Tulsa -5.74 0.42% 0.5667
141 Arizona St. -5.82 0.33% 0.5644
142 Weber St. -5.85 0.07% 0.4921
143 Iona -5.94 0.19% 0.5706
144 Sam Houston St. -6.03 0.03% 0.3605
145 Tennessee St. -6.04 0.09% 0.5171
146 Tennessee Martin -6.06 0.09% 0.4171
147 Loyola Chicago -6.10 0.17% 0.6773
148 San Jose St. -6.12 0.09% 0.4328
149 Ball St. -6.12 0.07% 0.4837
150 Stony Brook -6.15 0.07% 0.4275
151 Green Bay -6.15 0.08% 0.5028
152 Elon -6.16 0.18% 0.5719
153 Lehigh -6.20 0.11% 0.6229
154 Georgia Southern -6.25 0.11% 0.4947
155 Albany -6.29 0.05% 0.569
156 Marshall -6.31 0.08% 0.531
157 Louisiana Lafayette -6.32 0.06% 0.5234
158 UMBC -6.34 0.03% 0.4332
159 New Hampshire -6.39 0.03% 0.5055
160 Buffalo -6.41 0.08% 0.6147
161 UC Irvine -6.56 0.03% 0.5339
162 Liberty -6.67 0.02% 0.4256
163 Wyoming -6.71 0.08% 0.5335
164 Penn -6.77 0.02% 0.5392
165 Samford -6.78 0.02% 0.5343
166 Washington St. -6.81 0.08% 0.425
167 Canisius -6.86 0.05% 0.487
168 Central Michigan -6.89 0.03% 0.4401
169 Denver -6.97 0.03% 0.5132
170 LSU -7.07 0.08% 0.5053
171 Loyola Marymount -7.15 0.01% 0.4945
172 Southern Illinois -7.18 0.02% 0.5081
173 Lipscomb -7.26 0.01% 0.5027
174 UAB -7.27 0.02% 0.4568
175 Stephen F. Austin -7.29 0.00% 0.3485
176 Nebraska Omaha -7.30 0.02% 0.4322
177 Santa Clara -7.31 0.02% 0.5634
178 Boston University -7.38 0.01% 0.4668
179 Saint Peter’s -7.39 0.01% 0.628
180 Houston Baptist -7.39 0.00% 0.3662
181 Alcorn St. -7.41 0.00% 0.221
182 Mount St. Mary’s -7.44 0.01% 0.4054
183 Missouri St. -7.45 0.02% 0.5773
184 Texas St. -7.53 0.00% 0.4027
185 Toledo -7.69 0.02% 0.5719
186 Massachusetts -7.70 0.02% 0.5428
187 UMKC -7.75 0.00% 0.3714
188 Troy -7.79 0.01% 0.5078
189 UC Davis -7.80 0.00% 0.3597
190 Kent St. -7.85 0.01% 0.5055
191 Gardner Webb -7.88 0.00% 0.4285
192 Jacksonville St. -7.96 0.00% 0.4383
193 LIU Brooklyn -8.02 0.00% 0.2876
194 East Carolina -8.06 0.00% 0.403
195 Coastal Carolina -8.07 0.01% 0.4451
196 Fairfield -8.13 0.00% 0.4144
197 Loyola MD -8.21 0.00% 0.3281
198 Northeastern -8.21 0.01% 0.5427
199 Saint Joseph’s -8.29 0.01% 0.522
200 Charlotte -8.36 0.00% 0.3372
201 Eastern Michigan -8.56 0.00% 0.5246
202 Evansville -8.58 0.00% 0.5251
203 Morehead St. -8.63 0.00% 0.4556
204 Boston College -8.68 0.00% 0.5276
205 Wofford -8.68 0.00% 0.5158
206 USC Upstate -8.69 0.00% 0.3528
207 Long Beach St. -8.70 0.00% 0.3555
208 Utah St. -8.79 0.00% 0.5081
209 Western Kentucky -8.89 0.00% 0.3402
210 Mercer -8.93 0.00% 0.529
211 Columbia -8.95 0.00% 0.3821
212 Idaho -9.02 0.00% 0.348
213 Fordham -9.09 0.00% 0.4396
214 Wagner -9.10 0.00% 0.3449
215 Siena -9.15 0.00% 0.4648
216 Western Michigan -9.23 0.00% 0.4511
217 San Diego -9.32 0.00% 0.3082
218 Navy -9.33 0.00% 0.4392
219 Northern Illinois -9.36 0.00% 0.3866
220 Washington -9.36 0.00% 0.5
221 Holy Cross -9.42 0.00% 0.3935
222 Lamar -9.46 0.00% 0.3383
223 Norfolk St. -9.53 0.00% 0.1999
224 DePaul -9.59 0.00% 0.4479
225 Montana -9.63 0.00% 0.4281
226 Rider -9.71 0.00% 0.3921
227 Little Rock -9.79 0.00% 0.3342
228 Hawaii -9.80 0.00% 0.2686
229 High Point -9.83 0.00% 0.3002
230 Murray St. -9.90 0.00% 0.4557
231 Cal St. Fullerton -9.93 0.00% 0.2353
232 South Alabama -9.95 0.00% 0.3618
233 Jacksonville -10.09 0.00% 0.2665
234 Portland St. -10.11 0.00% 0.3532
235 IUPUI -10.12 0.00% 0.4299
236 Abilene Christian -10.18 0.00% 0.2338
237 Radford -10.23 0.00% 0.243
238 Seattle -10.30 0.00% 0.2556
239 Cal St. Northridge -10.31 0.00% 0.2685
240 Illinois Chicago -10.37 0.00% 0.3443
241 South Dakota St. -10.45 0.00% 0.4192
242 Utah Valley -10.45 0.00% 0.3721
243 UNLV -10.46 0.00% 0.3498
244 Nicholls St. -10.48 0.00% 0.1721
245 Hofstra -10.50 0.00% 0.4542
246 Brown -10.52 0.00% 0.2636
247 Southeastern Louisiana -10.54 0.00% 0.3357
248 Missouri -10.70 0.00% 0.5057
249 Montana St. -10.70 0.00% 0.3236
250 Eastern Illinois -10.70 0.00% 0.3982
251 Southern -10.76 0.00% 0.1761
252 UTEP -10.80 0.00% 0.369
253 Duquesne -10.85 0.00% 0.3877
254 Hampton -10.89 0.00% 0.1801
255 Indiana St. -10.95 0.00% 0.4104
256 Bowling Green -11.11 0.00% 0.2951
257 Morgan St. -11.30 0.00% 0.1436
258 Saint Louis -11.33 0.00% 0.2128
259 Pacific -11.46 0.00% 0.3039
260 St. Francis PA -11.48 0.00% 0.281
261 Savannah St. -11.52 0.00% 0.1587
262 Sacramento St. -11.55 0.00% 0.2205
263 South Carolina St. -11.55 0.00% 0.1081
264 Incarnate Word -11.57 0.00% 0.2113
265 Campbell -11.58 0.00% 0.1974
266 Portland -11.66 0.00% 0.2439
267 Fairleigh Dickinson -11.68 0.00% 0.2712
268 Southeast Missouri St. -11.69 0.00% 0.3696
269 Northwestern St. -11.69 0.00% 0.2138
270 Bradley -11.77 0.00% 0.3413
271 Kennesaw St. -11.87 0.00% 0.3157
272 UTSA -11.87 0.00% 0.2403
273 Grambling St. -11.88 0.00% 0.1059
274 Delaware -12.00 0.00% 0.2051
275 Florida Atlantic -12.00 0.00% 0.2934
276 North Florida -12.07 0.00% 0.2959
277 Tennessee Tech -12.09 0.00% 0.2852
278 Pepperdine -12.12 0.00% 0.2314
279 Northern Colorado -12.17 0.00% 0.2313
280 Air Force -12.20 0.00% 0.3809
281 Prairie View A&M -12.31 0.00% 0.1798
282 Appalachian St. -12.32 0.00% 0.3199
283 South Florida -12.35 0.00% 0.2133
284 Charleston Southern -12.52 0.00% 0.1992
285 Jackson St. -12.56 0.00% 0.1359
286 Western Illinois -12.59 0.00% 0.211
287 Army -12.62 0.00% 0.3138
288 Maryland Eastern Shore -12.68 0.00% 0.1866
289 Binghamton -12.68 0.00% 0.199
290 Cornell -12.70 0.00% 0.2834
291 Sacred Heart -12.80 0.00% 0.2034
292 Quinnipiac -12.92 0.00% 0.2672
293 Robert Morris -12.96 0.00% 0.2555
294 Dartmouth -13.04 0.00% 0.2085
295 Miami OH -13.06 0.00% 0.2377
296 Bryant -13.23 0.00% 0.2583
297 The Citadel -13.26 0.00% 0.2141
298 Austin Peay -13.28 0.00% 0.2191
299 UC Riverside -13.37 0.00% 0.1823
300 Eastern Kentucky -13.46 0.00% 0.2537
301 Manhattan -13.49 0.00% 0.237
302 Youngstown St. -13.57 0.00% 0.2292
303 Western Carolina -13.69 0.00% 0.1439
304 McNeese St. -13.77 0.00% 0.1657
305 Cleveland St. -13.79 0.00% 0.3439
306 Tulane -13.79 0.00% 0.3164
307 UT Rio Grande Valley -13.88 0.00% 0.2223
308 VMI -13.94 0.00% 0.163
309 NJIT -14.07 0.00% 0.2537
310 North Texas -14.08 0.00% 0.1957
311 Cal Poly -14.08 0.00% 0.1888
312 Central Arkansas -14.12 0.00% 0.2185
313 Colgate -14.18 0.00% 0.2849
314 Oral Roberts -14.26 0.00% 0.3357
315 Southern Miss -14.70 0.00% 0.1123
316 Alabama St. -14.73 0.00% 0.0896
317 Drexel -14.76 0.00% 0.3491
318 Lafayette -14.77 0.00% 0.1217
319 Drake -14.80 0.00% 0.31
320 UMass Lowell -14.84 0.00% 0.2466
321 Louisiana Monroe -14.88 0.00% 0.269
322 Milwaukee -15.03 0.00% 0.2437
323 Oregon St. -15.05 0.00% 0.2552
324 Stetson -15.36 0.00% 0.179
325 James Madison -15.51 0.00% 0.3399
326 Howard -15.54 0.00% 0.0902
327 Detroit -15.59 0.00% 0.2115
328 Niagara -15.64 0.00% 0.3064
329 Delaware St. -15.66 0.00% 0.1031
330 American -15.99 0.00% 0.1564
331 Coppin St. -16.08 0.00% 0.0853
332 Idaho St. -16.10 0.00% 0.1395
333 Chicago St. -16.10 0.00% 0.0972
334 UC Santa Barbara -16.14 0.00% 0.0892
335 Marist -16.57 0.00% 0.1743
336 Longwood -16.73 0.00% 0.0594
337 FIU -16.93 0.00% 0.2355
338 Northern Arizona -16.93 0.00% 0.1287
339 Hartford -16.96 0.00% 0.1175
340 Bethune Cookman -17.30 0.00% 0.095
341 Florida A&M -17.43 0.00% 0.0865
342 Mississippi Valley St. -17.63 0.00% 0.0717
343 Presbyterian -18.21 0.00% 0.0362
344 Arkansas Pine Bluff -18.40 0.00% 0.0632
345 Southern Utah -18.72 0.00% 0.1265
346 Maine -18.73 0.00% 0.1021
347 Central Connecticut -18.93 0.00% 0.0909
348 SIU Edwardsville -19.29 0.00% 0.1476
349 St. Francis NY -21.04 0.00% 0.0585
350 Alabama A&M -21.33 0.00% 0.0291
351 North Carolina A&T -22.55 0.00% 0.0459
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