WAB 2/14: Happy Valentine’s WAB

First of all, if you see Bob Huggins today, try to be nice to him. He had a rough night. Kansas now sits atop the WAB standings, with only Villanova as company. Baylor has fallen back with a loss to Texas Tech. Gonza looks likely to win out and finish 3rd or 4th overall, which should be good enough to grab the #1 seed out West. Sadly, Louisville held off Syracuse, and are now 5th in the standings.

Last night Stewart Mandel posed an interesting question:

They will likely be one of the best 36 at-large teams after the automatic bids have been decided, but unless they go on a run, they won’t have one of the 36 best resumes. As such, I would personally reject their inclusion in the dance. I would much rather invite a team like Virginia Tech, who isn’t quite as good, but has a much better resume.

Scott Van Pelt noted that if you select based or power ratings, you devalue wins and losses. He’s right. Mandel replied “can’t lose sight of the fact a tourney berth is a reward. Most advanced metrics aren’t designed w/ that purpose in mind.”

Mandel is right about that. Power ratings aren’t resume ratings. Ken Pomeroy nailed it:

“Much of the discussion in the room revolved around the criteria for selecting the field and your somewhat humble correspondent believes it’s best for the sport if a results-based approach is used to selecting the field. This is not because teams that win are best equipped to win in the tournament. That scoring margin predicts conference tournament winners better than conference winning percentage tells you all you need to know about the predictive power of winning. (It is small relative to scoring margin.)

But conference tournaments aren’t seeded based on scoring margin and nobody has ever proposed that. To my knowledge, there is no tournament in any sport1 that seeds on something other than record. Maryland can win all of the one-point games it wants and the Big Ten is not going to take away its regular-season title if it has the best record.2 Likewise, Texas A&M’s controversial victory over Georgia on Saturday counts just as much as Kentucky’s 42-point win over A&M earlier in the season.3

The reason this is so is that the outcome of the game has to matter. This is why we watch the game. Make the selection process, and thus the games, purely about points scored and allowed and the games become less entertaining.4 There is no special purpose to having one more point than your opponent. No point in managing foul trouble. No point in hoisting threes in the final minute to catch up. The contest becomes one of points accumulation. There’s a reason televised Scrabble has never hit it big.”

http://kenpom.com/blog/that-meeting-at-the-ncaa-hq/

That is why I calculate Wins-Above-Bubble. To see who has earned inclusion in the tournament, and who has not. Right now Middle Tennessee has a better resume than Clemson. Would they get picked as an at-large team over Clemson? I have no idea. I’m just trying to give standings that take every game into account.

I’m not sold that WAB is the best way of looking at resumes. My guess is that implied Pythag is marginally better. I can say that WAB is much better than anything else the committee has in the room in terms of evaluating relative resume strength. One cannot simply look at a sheet like this and know whether or not Wichita State deserves a bid:

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/teams/rpi/WICHST/wichita-state-shockers

As it turns out, it’s pretty darn hard to go 23-4 against their schedule (22-4 in D1 games). Would you know that from looking at the sheet? I wouldn’t, and I can’t imagine anyone else would.

Full WAB’s are here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hof8DT8OCt_9A-f93NnXnSfMdp97B1qvmQ8Hw_X3X8Y/edit#gid=0

Current WAB Standings:

WAB Rank School WAB-AVG Pythag Pythag Rank
1 Kansas 8.39 0.9483 8
2 Villanova 8.25 0.9622 4
3 Baylor 7.14 0.9429 11
4 Gonzaga 6.80 0.9727 1
5 Louisville 6.11 0.9610 5
6 Arizona 5.18 0.9165 20
7 North Carolina 5.02 0.9482 9
8 Wisconsin 5.01 0.9343 14
9 Florida St. 4.89 0.9321 16
10 Florida 4.85 0.9584 6
11 UCLA 4.66 0.9271 18
12 Duke 4.38 0.9402 12
13 Kentucky 4.37 0.9488 7
14 Butler 4.32 0.9043 26
15 Virginia 4.31 0.9637 2
16 Creighton 4.30 0.9129 21
17 Oregon 4.17 0.9369 13
18 Cincinnati 4.12 0.9226 19
19 Maryland 3.93 0.8586 36
20 Notre Dame 3.81 0.9123 22
21 Purdue 3.79 0.9455 10
22 West Virginia 3.76 0.9627 3
23 Xavier 3.26 0.8874 28
24 SMU 3.10 0.9333 15
25 South Carolina 3.09 0.8918 27
26 Saint Mary’s 2.53 0.9111 23
27 Northwestern 2.49 0.8772 31
28 USC 2.21 0.8027 56
29 Wichita St. 1.98 0.9313 17
30 Virginia Tech 1.96 0.8173 53
31 Oklahoma St. 1.95 0.9095 24
32 Minnesota 1.36 0.8572 37
33 TCU 1.29 0.8471 41
34 Dayton 1.22 0.8654 34
35 Iowa St. 1.14 0.9064 25
36 VCU 1.08 0.8391 45
37 Kansas St. 0.81 0.8847 29
38 Arkansas 0.76 0.7988 57
39 Miami FL 0.75 0.8683 33
40 Middle Tennessee 0.64 0.8045 55
41 Illinois St. 0.57 0.8288 50
42 Akron 0.52 0.6820 98
43 California 0.45 0.8384 46
44 Michigan St. 0.20 0.8237 51
45 Wake Forest 0.20 0.8686 32
46 Monmouth 0.15 0.6984 90
47 Vermont 0.04 0.7380 77
48 Seton Hall 0.02 0.8073 54
49 Texas Tech -0.01 0.8624 35
50 UNC Wilmington -0.18 0.7771 62
51 Michigan -0.26 0.8845 30
52 Valparaiso -0.32 0.6825 97
53 Clemson -0.38 0.8558 38
54 Belmont -0.41 0.7290 79
55 Georgia Tech -0.46 0.7254 80
56 Auburn -0.51 0.7390 75
57 Marquette -0.64 0.8405 44
58 Nevada -0.77 0.7503 68
59 Pittsburgh -0.82 0.7731 63
60 Tennessee -0.82 0.8407 43
61 Syracuse -0.83 0.8442 42
62 New Mexico St. -0.85 0.6600 105
63 UT Arlington -1.02 0.7407 73
64 Houston -1.06 0.8525 39
65 Georgia -1.07 0.8179 52
66 Rhode Island -1.13 0.8372 47
67 Providence -1.14 0.7932 59
68 Mississippi -1.35 0.7571 66
69 Indiana -1.39 0.8484 40
70 East Tennessee St. -1.51 0.7445 71
71 Georgetown -1.65 0.8326 48
72 Utah -1.65 0.8291 49
73 Boise St. -1.66 0.7005 89
74 Ohio St. -1.66 0.7882 61
75 Princeton -1.78 0.7113 84
76 Alabama -1.84 0.7939 58
77 Memphis -1.95 0.7094 86
78 Winthrop -1.96 0.5908 123
79 UNC Asheville -1.98 0.6362 108
80 Chattanooga -1.98 0.6864 95
81 Florida Gulf Coast -2.12 0.6211 114
82 Bucknell -2.30 0.6813 99
83 Illinois -2.32 0.7470 70
84 Arkansas St. -2.54 0.6276 110
85 Penn St. -2.59 0.7472 69
86 College of Charleston -2.62 0.6631 103
87 Texas A&M -2.64 0.7688 64
88 Yale -2.70 0.6017 119
89 Iowa -2.74 0.7385 76
90 North Carolina St. -2.92 0.6910 92
91 Temple -2.94 0.6865 94
92 Richmond -2.96 0.6949 91
93 Cal St. Bakersfield -2.99 0.6354 109
94 George Mason -3.10 0.6214 113
95 Furman -3.17 0.6860 96
96 UNC Greensboro -3.20 0.4972 166
97 UCF -3.25 0.7231 81
98 Vanderbilt -3.29 0.7892 60
99 San Francisco -3.40 0.6423 107
100 BYU -3.41 0.7391 74
101 Harvard -3.41 0.6208 115
102 Colorado -3.43 0.7524 67
103 Oakland -3.48 0.5882 124
104 Mississippi St. -3.49 0.7014 88
105 Stanford -3.61 0.6634 102
106 North Carolina Central -3.64 0.4996 165
107 Louisiana Tech -3.70 0.6709 100
108 New Mexico -3.74 0.6272 111
109 La Salle -3.82 0.6224 112
110 St. Bonaventure -3.88 0.6893 93
111 Colorado St. -3.88 0.6677 101
112 North Dakota St. -3.90 0.5730 132
113 Nebraska -3.92 0.7101 85
114 Texas -4.25 0.7638 65
115 Georgia St. -4.26 0.5635 138
116 Rice -4.37 0.5836 128
117 Ohio -4.39 0.6442 106
118 Iona -4.39 0.6037 118
119 Eastern Washington -4.42 0.4796 177
120 Grand Canyon -4.43 0.4432 191
121 Connecticut -4.44 0.7209 82
122 Old Dominion -4.50 0.5877 126
123 St. John’s -4.52 0.7182 83
124 Sam Houston St. -4.54 0.4006 209
125 Texas Southern -4.60 0.3811 217
126 Fort Wayne -4.61 0.5820 129
127 Rutgers -4.66 0.5811 131
128 Davidson -4.68 0.7026 87
129 San Diego St. -4.70 0.7330 78
130 Oklahoma -4.80 0.7440 72
131 Northern Kentucky -4.91 0.5104 162
132 Weber St. -4.93 0.5480 144
133 Wright St. -4.97 0.4847 174
134 Tulsa -4.99 0.5930 122
135 William & Mary -5.03 0.5815 130
136 George Washington -5.07 0.5651 137
137 Northern Iowa -5.11 0.5693 134
138 South Dakota -5.17 0.5236 156
139 Central Michigan -5.18 0.4831 176
140 Arizona St. -5.19 0.5942 121
141 New Orleans -5.20 0.3943 211
142 Towson -5.21 0.5534 141
143 Wyoming -5.23 0.5296 151
144 North Dakota -5.26 0.4689 186
145 Tennessee Martin -5.33 0.4384 193
146 San Jose St. -5.41 0.4489 190
147 Fresno St. -5.56 0.5882 125
148 Georgia Southern -5.60 0.5066 163
149 Texas A&M Corpus Chris -5.66 0.3284 240
150 UMBC -5.68 0.4374 194
151 Marshall -5.78 0.5237 155
152 Loyola Chicago -5.79 0.6626 104
153 Elon -5.81 0.5614 140
154 UAB -5.82 0.5182 158
155 UC Davis -5.91 0.4019 207
156 Denver -6.08 0.5337 150
157 Tennessee St. -6.14 0.4875 171
158 Texas St. -6.19 0.4111 205
159 Liberty -6.20 0.4413 192
160 Massachusetts -6.20 0.6077 116
161 Samford -6.24 0.4691 185
162 Washington St. -6.25 0.4179 201
163 LSU -6.27 0.5155 160
164 Green Bay -6.30 0.4758 178
165 Lipscomb -6.37 0.5396 147
166 Canisius -6.38 0.4862 173
167 Lehigh -6.39 0.5711 133
168 Albany -6.40 0.5482 143
169 Santa Clara -6.47 0.5688 135
170 New Hampshire -6.48 0.4702 183
171 Ball St. -6.50 0.4745 180
172 Stony Brook -6.51 0.4115 204
173 Buffalo -6.52 0.6063 117
174 UC Irvine -6.61 0.5346 149
175 Louisiana Lafayette -6.65 0.5397 146
176 Mount St. Mary’s -6.90 0.3817 215
177 Eastern Michigan -6.90 0.5489 142
178 Boston University -6.91 0.4865 172
179 Northeastern -6.94 0.5428 145
180 Missouri St. -6.96 0.5954 120
181 USC Upstate -6.96 0.3816 216
182 Southern Illinois -7.03 0.4933 167
183 Loyola Marymount -7.05 0.4893 169
184 Jacksonville St. -7.06 0.4297 197
185 Penn -7.22 0.4693 184
186 Saint Joseph’s -7.24 0.5354 148
187 Nebraska Omaha -7.27 0.4297 196
188 Morehead St. -7.41 0.4835 175
189 Toledo -7.42 0.5680 136
190 East Carolina -7.45 0.3867 213
191 Utah St. -7.47 0.5260 153
192 Columbia -7.50 0.3979 210
193 Saint Peter’s -7.53 0.5844 127
194 Houston Baptist -7.54 0.3249 242
195 Northern Illinois -7.54 0.4281 198
196 Stephen F. Austin -7.56 0.2984 256
197 Alcorn St. -7.61 0.2102 296
198 Coastal Carolina -7.62 0.4273 199
199 Loyola MD -7.63 0.3187 246
200 Fairfield -7.70 0.4208 200
201 Navy -7.76 0.4750 179
202 Charlotte -7.77 0.3486 228
203 Boston College -7.78 0.5627 139
204 Washington -7.79 0.5242 154
205 UMKC -7.82 0.3477 229
206 Evansville -7.85 0.5264 152
207 Lamar -7.91 0.3325 238
208 Troy -7.93 0.5032 164
209 Gardner Webb -8.00 0.4118 202
210 Idaho -8.19 0.3656 220
211 High Point -8.24 0.3014 252
212 LIU Brooklyn -8.25 0.2648 273
213 Kent St. -8.31 0.4884 170
214 Wofford -8.34 0.5122 161
215 Western Kentucky -8.43 0.3589 222
216 Portland St. -8.43 0.3408 231
217 Montana -8.61 0.4710 181
218 Seattle -8.63 0.2680 269
219 Holy Cross -8.64 0.3763 218
220 Utah Valley -8.67 0.3856 214
221 Long Beach St. -8.67 0.3352 235
222 Norfolk St. -8.74 0.1945 306
223 Hawaii -8.87 0.3220 244
224 Brown -8.90 0.3052 251
225 Murray St. -9.12 0.4905 168
226 San Diego -9.15 0.2994 254
227 DePaul -9.17 0.4703 182
228 Rider -9.17 0.3608 221
229 Little Rock -9.20 0.3499 227
230 Wagner -9.22 0.3274 241
231 Mercer -9.22 0.5219 157
232 Cal St. Northridge -9.23 0.3233 243
233 South Alabama -9.24 0.3513 225
234 Hofstra -9.26 0.4521 188
235 Indiana St. -9.31 0.4589 187
236 Western Michigan -9.35 0.4362 195
237 Radford -9.41 0.2446 281
238 Siena -9.43 0.4508 189
239 Fordham -9.43 0.4006 208
240 Jacksonville -9.49 0.2589 276
241 IUPUI -9.54 0.4116 203
242 Missouri -9.64 0.5173 159
243 Savannah St. -9.68 0.1458 321
244 Nicholls St. -9.73 0.1387 325
245 Bowling Green -9.74 0.3217 245
246 UNLV -9.88 0.3508 226
247 Illinois Chicago -9.92 0.3404 232
248 Southeastern Louisiana -9.93 0.3182 247
249 Fairleigh Dickinson -9.94 0.2931 260
250 Portland -9.96 0.2894 262
251 Campbell -9.98 0.2172 293
252 Cal St. Fullerton -10.00 0.2374 285
253 Duquesne -10.02 0.3553 224
254 Saint Louis -10.03 0.2480 279
255 Eastern Illinois -10.06 0.3736 219
256 Hampton -10.09 0.1752 313
257 UTSA -10.41 0.2377 284
258 Abilene Christian -10.46 0.1938 308
259 Pepperdine -10.61 0.2715 266
260 Air Force -10.66 0.4041 206
261 Montana St. -10.73 0.3328 237
262 South Carolina St. -10.74 0.0953 336
263 St. Francis PA -10.78 0.2708 267
264 Appalachian St. -10.80 0.3322 239
265 Incarnate Word -10.81 0.1790 312
266 South Dakota St. -10.85 0.3901 212
267 Southern -10.87 0.1699 316
268 Sacramento St. -10.90 0.2107 295
269 Kennesaw St. -10.93 0.2861 263
270 Northwestern St. -10.98 0.1924 309
271 Western Illinois -11.00 0.2069 299
272 South Florida -11.02 0.2320 288
273 Bradley -11.14 0.3095 249
274 Quinnipiac -11.20 0.2978 257
275 UTEP -11.26 0.3337 236
276 Delaware -11.28 0.2142 294
277 Morgan St. -11.35 0.1229 331
278 UC Riverside -11.47 0.2241 291
279 Northern Colorado -11.48 0.2262 290
280 North Florida -11.49 0.2949 259
281 Florida Atlantic -11.51 0.2951 258
282 Pacific -11.56 0.2993 255
283 Miami OH -11.62 0.2440 282
284 Jackson St. -11.70 0.1524 320
285 Southeast Missouri St. -11.78 0.3094 250
286 Maryland Eastern Shore -11.96 0.1748 314
287 Sacred Heart -11.98 0.1970 303
288 Grambling St. -12.06 0.0918 340
289 Binghamton -12.07 0.2090 298
290 Eastern Kentucky -12.16 0.2313 289
291 Cleveland St. -12.19 0.3396 233
292 Dartmouth -12.19 0.2236 292
293 Cornell -12.21 0.2703 268
294 Robert Morris -12.29 0.2567 277
295 Tennessee Tech -12.35 0.3008 253
296 Prairie View A&M -12.44 0.1525 319
297 Western Carolina -12.50 0.1354 328
298 VMI -12.58 0.1620 317
299 Central Arkansas -12.59 0.2012 302
300 Oral Roberts -12.66 0.3474 230
301 The Citadel -12.70 0.1825 311
302 Charleston Southern -12.71 0.2039 300
303 Youngstown St. -12.81 0.2091 297
304 Manhattan -12.85 0.2345 287
305 McNeese St. -12.96 0.1369 326
306 Tulane -12.96 0.2750 264
307 Alabama St. -13.01 0.0929 339
308 Army -13.08 0.2716 265
309 Cal Poly -13.19 0.1891 310
310 UT Rio Grande Valley -13.20 0.1969 304
311 Drexel -13.23 0.3555 223
312 NJIT -13.23 0.2675 271
313 Drake -13.25 0.3140 248
314 North Texas -13.26 0.1942 307
315 UMass Lowell -13.29 0.2522 278
316 Bryant -13.31 0.2473 280
317 Austin Peay -13.32 0.2024 301
318 Colgate -13.45 0.2659 272
319 Southern Miss -13.85 0.1177 332
320 Detroit -13.98 0.2351 286
321 Idaho St. -14.08 0.1543 318
322 Louisiana Monroe -14.11 0.2590 274
323 Lafayette -14.18 0.1241 329
324 Milwaukee -14.33 0.2589 275
325 American -14.34 0.1966 305
326 Oregon St. -14.35 0.2679 270
327 Niagara -14.40 0.2901 261
328 Stetson -14.65 0.1426 324
329 Delaware St. -14.67 0.1065 335
330 Howard -14.78 0.0769 342
331 Longwood -15.11 0.0601 348
332 UC Santa Barbara -15.12 0.1231 330
333 James Madison -15.19 0.3372 234
334 Marist -15.20 0.1716 315
335 Coppin St. -15.22 0.0654 347
336 Hartford -15.30 0.1354 327
337 Chicago St. -15.30 0.0946 337
338 FIU -15.52 0.2404 283
339 Florida A&M -15.62 0.0767 343
340 Mississippi Valley St. -15.85 0.0748 344
341 Northern Arizona -15.99 0.1435 322
342 Presbyterian -16.42 0.0485 349
343 Arkansas Pine Bluff -16.55 0.0741 345
344 Maine -16.99 0.1147 334
345 Central Connecticut -17.06 0.0934 338
346 Bethune Cookman -17.50 0.0732 346
347 SIU Edwardsville -17.67 0.1432 323
348 Southern Utah -18.75 0.1171 333
349 St. Francis NY -19.20 0.0788 341
350 Alabama A&M -19.47 0.0287 351
351 North Carolina A&T -20.78 0.0485 350
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