WAB 2/13: Baselines

These are all using the KenPom ratings. The first column is Wins-Above-Bubble, with an average bubble team as our baseline. The second ups the baseline to .9000, which is roughly equal to Butler. The third lowers the baseline to .7000, which is roughly equal to Boise State. The final column lowers the baseline to .5000, or roughly equal to New Hampshire. Let’s look at the aforementioned Butler and compare them to Duke.

Both teams have played 25 games. Duke is 20-5, Butler is 19-6. How many wins would our respective baselines expect to average against each schedule?

Baseline Vs. Duke’s Vs. Butler’s
Bubble 15.76 14.83
0.9000 17.67 17.26
0.7000 12.39 10.71
0.5000 8.98 7.14

Butler has faced the tougher schedule. As we raise the baseline, Duke’s results are more impressive. However, Butler is 11.86 wins ahead of the pace of an average D1 team, while Duke is only 11.02 wins ahead of that pace. So which team has the better resume? Before you answer, let me show you one other  way of looking at their resumes.

Duke has an implied Pythag of .9473. Butler has an implied Pythag of .9301. That’s the Pythag a team would need to have to expect to have the same percentile. The problem with implied Pythag is that it cannot measure an undefeated team at the .5000 percentile level. All undefeated teams would have an implied Pythag of 1.000 regardless of schedule. The way to solve that problem is set the percentile above .5000.

I know this is a pretty involved math discussion, and it would be easier if I had time to give you examples, but unfortunately I need to head out. I will discuss this more later in the season. For now, here are the respective KenPom WAB’s for the four different baselines:

WAB Rank School WAB-Bubble WAB-.9000 WAB-.7000 WAB-.5000
1 Villanova 7.96 5.73 11.9 15.66
2 Kansas 7.58 5.37 11.34 14.85
3 Baylor 7.38 5.26 10.84 13.85
4 Gonzaga 6.78 5.15 9.93 13.56
5 Louisville 5.4 3.31 8.95 12.34
6 Arizona 5.14 3.27 8.69 12.55
7 Florida 4.86 2.66 8.79 12.58
8 North Carolina 4.82 2.62 8.61 12.23
9 Wisconsin 4.77 2.75 8.28 11.56
10 Florida St. 4.74 2.69 8.3 11.68
11 UCLA 4.46 2.68 7.77 11.27
12 Kentucky 4.27 2.21 7.94 11.56
13 Virginia 4.26 2.19 7.68 10.69
14 Duke 4.24 2.33 7.61 11.02
15 Butler 4.17 1.74 8.29 11.86
16 Creighton 4.16 2.15 7.78 11.31
17 Cincinnati 4.11 2.43 7.33 10.92
18 Oregon 4.03 2.06 7.74 11.55
19 West Virginia 3.92 2.05 7.11 10.16
20 Maryland 3.78 1.8 7.38 10.96
21 Notre Dame 3.74 1.6 7.15 10.14
22 Purdue 3.7 1.69 7.24 10.67
23 Xavier 3.23 1.09 7.02 10.72
24 South Carolina 3.04 1 6.87 10.66
25 SMU 3.03 1.13 6.7 10.59
26 Saint Mary’s 2.53 1.24 5.3 8.8
27 Northwestern 2.37 0.44 5.85 9.28
28 USC 2.06 0.25 5.55 9.38
29 Wichita St. 2.04 0.4 5.4 9.3
30 Oklahoma St. 1.93 -0.13 5.22 8.01
31 Virginia Tech 1.8 0.07 4.76 7.62
32 Minnesota 1.32 -0.67 5.03 8.84
33 TCU 1.31 -0.52 4.51 7.72
34 Dayton 1.22 -0.47 4.54 8.13
35 VCU 1.11 -0.69 4.95 9.3
36 Iowa St. 1.09 -0.88 4.29 7.14
37 Kansas St. 0.78 -1.01 3.73 6.61
38 Arkansas 0.75 -1.07 4.18 7.87
39 Middle Tennessee 0.71 -0.75 3.97 8.14
40 Illinois St. 0.57 -0.98 3.94 8.13
41 Akron 0.53 -0.61 3.17 6.78
42 Miami FL 0.52 -1.26 3.63 6.76
43 California 0.36 -1.34 3.6 7.21
44 Vermont 0.19 -1.21 3.21 7.1
45 Michigan St. 0.11 -2.03 3.66 6.87
46 Wake Forest 0.06 -2.01 3.66 7.14
47 Monmouth 0 -1.28 2.8 6.48
48 Seton Hall -0.02 -1.93 3.24 6.32
49 UNC Wilmington -0.03 -1.56 3.34 7.49
50 Belmont -0.35 -1.6 2.4 5.93
51 Valparaiso -0.35 -1.53 2.25 5.68
52 Michigan -0.39 -2.38 3.19 6.71
53 Clemson -0.42 -2.52 3.04 6.07
54 Auburn -0.54 -2.55 3.18 6.98
55 Georgia Tech -0.57 -2.48 2.52 5.3
56 Syracuse -0.66 -2.71 2.93 6.47
57 Texas Tech -0.67 -2.43 2.33 5.22
58 Tennessee -0.72 -2.85 2.85 6.03
59 New Mexico St. -0.76 -1.84 1.82 5.31
60 Marquette -0.76 -2.76 2.62 5.75
61 Nevada -0.76 -2.32 2.67 6.84
62 Pittsburgh -0.98 -3.02 2.58 6.11
63 Houston -1.01 -2.65 2.38 6.25
64 UT Arlington -1.02 -2.37 1.83 5.33
65 Georgia -1.02 -3.13 2.6 5.99
66 Rhode Island -1.19 -2.93 2.14 5.78
67 Mississippi -1.22 -3.23 2.44 6.2
68 Providence -1.22 -3.3 2.36 5.71
69 East Tennessee St. -1.37 -2.74 1.57 5.14
70 Indiana -1.55 -3.49 1.68 4.73
71 Boise St. -1.62 -3.14 1.57 5.19
72 Arkansas St. -1.64 -3.13 1.44 5.15
73 Ohio St. -1.7 -3.74 1.89 5.38
74 Princeton -1.76 -2.99 0.75 3.66
75 Georgetown -1.78 -4.04 2.12 5.73
76 Chattanooga -1.79 -3.16 1.04 4.41
77 Alabama -1.84 -3.76 1.62 5.04
78 Utah -1.84 -3.39 1.09 4.26
79 Memphis -1.89 -3.59 1.44 5.09
80 UNC Asheville -1.91 -3.22 0.76 3.99
81 Winthrop -1.93 -3.01 0.43 3.59
82 Florida Gulf Coast -2.05 -3.22 0.48 3.78
83 Bucknell -2.27 -3.6 0.65 4.43
84 Illinois -2.41 -4.53 1.28 4.87
85 College of Charleston -2.5 -4.07 1.04 5.46
86 Texas A&M -2.69 -4.38 0.36 3.46
87 Yale -2.7 -3.8 -0.37 2.49
88 Penn St. -2.78 -4.93 1.1 4.92
89 Iowa -2.82 -4.84 0.71 4.12
90 Temple -2.92 -4.77 0.4 3.91
91 UNC Greensboro -2.92 -4.31 -0.09 3.21
92 Cal St. Bakersfield -2.95 -3.95 -0.81 2
93 Furman -3 -4.48 0.14 3.85
94 Richmond -3.03 -4.72 0.39 4.19
95 North Carolina St. -3.05 -4.9 0.34 3.9
96 George Mason -3.14 -4.64 0.05 3.81
97 Vanderbilt -3.26 -5.57 0.82 4.61
98 UCF -3.26 -4.91 -0.13 3.19
99 San Francisco -3.35 -4.76 -0.52 2.91
100 Mississippi St. -3.36 -5.15 0.06 3.63
101 Harvard -3.39 -4.48 -0.98 2.04
102 BYU -3.4 -4.9 -0.15 3.91
103 Georgia St. -3.44 -4.68 -0.8 2.5
104 Oakland -3.45 -4.59 -0.83 2.71
105 North Carolina Central -3.59 -4.38 -1.76 0.72
106 Colorado -3.6 -5.49 -0.06 3.64
107 Texas Southern -3.61 -4.84 -1.34 1.2
108 Louisiana Tech -3.64 -4.79 -1.23 1.81
109 New Mexico -3.73 -5.4 -0.44 3.21
110 Stanford -3.75 -5.67 -0.41 2.92
111 Colorado St. -3.84 -5.37 -0.64 3.14
112 La Salle -3.85 -5.43 -0.67 2.97
113 North Dakota St. -3.9 -5.15 -1.03 2.75
114 St. Bonaventure -3.92 -5.32 -0.89 2.89
115 Nebraska -4.07 -6.26 -0.5 2.56
116 Texas -4.31 -6.47 -0.76 2.46
117 Sam Houston St. -4.36 -5.31 -2.26 0.59
118 Rice -4.36 -5.47 -1.89 1.37
119 Iona -4.37 -5.73 -1.27 2.81
120 Grand Canyon -4.38 -5.44 -2.25 0.43
121 Ohio -4.41 -5.58 -1.69 1.86
122 Eastern Washington -4.42 -5.68 -1.75 1.63
123 Old Dominion -4.45 -5.95 -1.35 2.29
124 Connecticut -4.49 -6.23 -1.33 1.91
125 Fort Wayne -4.63 -5.83 -2.05 1.18
126 St. John’s -4.66 -6.76 -1.05 2.32
127 San Diego St. -4.7 -6.11 -1.63 2.02
128 Georgia Southern -4.73 -6.05 -1.79 1.92
129 Rutgers -4.73 -6.64 -1.43 1.74
130 Davidson -4.77 -6.34 -1.64 1.84
131 Northern Kentucky -4.85 -6 -2.2 1.41
132 Oklahoma -4.88 -7.02 -1.59 1.13
133 William & Mary -4.89 -6.36 -1.93 1.42
134 Weber St. -4.9 -5.93 -2.46 0.81
135 Wright St. -4.9 -6.23 -1.86 2
136 Tulsa -4.93 -6.76 -1.44 2.28
137 George Washington -5.08 -6.93 -1.53 2.13
138 Towson -5.08 -6.63 -1.62 2.68
139 New Orleans -5.14 -6.15 -2.97 -0.1
140 Northern Iowa -5.14 -6.9 -1.65 2.27
141 South Dakota -5.17 -6.5 -2.07 2.08
142 Tennessee Martin -5.22 -6.5 -2.44 1.14
143 Central Michigan -5.24 -6.48 -2.35 1.36
144 North Dakota -5.24 -6.16 -3.07 -0.15
145 Arizona St. -5.25 -7.16 -1.87 1.61
146 Wyoming -5.29 -6.76 -1.98 2.18
147 San Jose St. -5.42 -6.74 -2.57 0.89
148 Texas A&M Corpus Chris -5.56 -6.4 -3.72 -1.18
149 UMBC -5.58 -6.64 -3.16 0.07
150 Fresno St. -5.61 -7.12 -2.44 1.25
151 Elon -5.71 -7.24 -2.42 1.6
152 Marshall -5.76 -7.16 -2.91 0.51
153 UAB -5.77 -7.15 -2.89 0.64
154 Loyola Chicago -5.79 -7.29 -2.49 1.6
155 UC Davis -5.97 -6.94 -3.64 -0.35
156 Samford -6.05 -7.33 -3.36 0.01
157 Denver -6.07 -7.38 -3.02 0.93
158 Tennessee St. -6.16 -7.5 -3.3 0.26
159 Liberty -6.2 -7.34 -3.68 -0.44
160 Massachusetts -6.22 -7.87 -2.83 1.02
161 LSU -6.23 -8.29 -2.52 1.05
162 Green Bay -6.26 -7.54 -3.4 0.29
163 Lehigh -6.26 -7.69 -3.13 0.68
164 Canisius -6.29 -7.65 -3.17 0.88
165 Albany -6.3 -7.53 -3.59 0.01
166 Lipscomb -6.34 -7.66 -3.4 0.47
167 Texas St. -6.35 -7.25 -4.17 -1.06
168 Washington St. -6.35 -8.23 -2.93 0.57
169 New Hampshire -6.39 -7.61 -3.76 -0.49
170 Stony Brook -6.42 -7.57 -3.7 0.06
171 Santa Clara -6.44 -7.97 -3.31 0.4
172 Louisiana Lafayette -6.52 -7.83 -3.68 -0.14
173 Ball St. -6.54 -7.64 -4.05 -0.77
174 UC Irvine -6.68 -8.02 -3.92 -0.53
175 Buffalo -6.68 -8.14 -3.63 -0.03
176 Northeastern -6.79 -8.4 -3.29 0.98
177 Boston University -6.84 -8.12 -4.03 -0.48
178 Mount St. Mary’s -6.87 -8.27 -4.16 -0.91
179 USC Upstate -6.89 -8.12 -4.18 -0.69
180 Missouri St. -6.9 -8.35 -3.7 0.34
181 Jacksonville St. -6.93 -8.4 -3.78 0.1
182 Southern Illinois -6.98 -8.43 -3.92 -0.08
183 Eastern Michigan -6.99 -8.33 -4.18 -0.79
184 Loyola Marymount -7.05 -8.45 -4.18 -0.83
185 Penn -7.21 -8.52 -4.56 -1.48
186 Saint Joseph’s -7.31 -9.02 -3.86 0.06
187 East Carolina -7.34 -8.84 -4.53 -1.56
188 Nebraska Omaha -7.34 -8.88 -4.15 -0.31
189 Morehead St. -7.35 -8.68 -4.37 -0.65
190 Toledo -7.4 -8.85 -4.19 -0.22
191 Columbia -7.49 -8.51 -5.25 -2.38
192 Stephen F. Austin -7.5 -8.41 -5.48 -2.77
193 Saint Peter’s -7.51 -8.81 -4.55 -0.59
194 Houston Baptist -7.51 -8.68 -5.17 -2.4
195 Alcorn St. -7.51 -8.49 -5.58 -3.46
196 Utah St. -7.51 -9.1 -4.18 -0.34
197 Loyola MD -7.55 -8.77 -4.85 -1.26
198 Northern Illinois -7.57 -8.66 -4.96 -1.37
199 Coastal Carolina -7.58 -9.15 -4.35 -0.66
200 Navy -7.64 -8.78 -4.85 -0.94
201 Fairfield -7.72 -8.82 -5.06 -1.45
202 Charlotte -7.75 -9.08 -5.08 -1.96
203 Evansville -7.77 -9.41 -4.38 -0.44
204 UMKC -7.77 -8.96 -5.17 -1.68
205 Lamar -7.84 -8.6 -5.9 -2.95
206 Boston College -7.85 -9.89 -4.34 -0.96
207 Washington -7.89 -9.71 -4.62 -1.29
208 Gardner Webb -7.96 -9.2 -5.49 -2.59
209 Wofford -8 -9.69 -4.6 -0.82
210 Troy -8.04 -9.31 -5.19 -1.65
211 LIU Brooklyn -8.11 -9.02 -5.91 -2.64
212 High Point -8.21 -9.29 -5.9 -2.96
213 Idaho -8.21 -9.18 -5.81 -2.4
214 Kent St. -8.3 -9.53 -5.43 -1.64
215 Rider -8.35 -9.58 -5.4 -1.36
216 Western Kentucky -8.4 -9.7 -5.55 -1.91
217 South Alabama -8.42 -9.6 -5.68 -2.1
218 Portland St. -8.43 -9.3 -6.34 -3.43
219 Holy Cross -8.49 -10.02 -5.26 -1.36
220 Siena -8.53 -10.14 -4.97 -0.65
221 Seattle -8.56 -9.52 -6.52 -3.94
222 Utah Valley -8.59 -9.7 -6.18 -3.18
223 Montana -8.68 -9.91 -5.9 -2.13
224 Little Rock -8.68 -9.62 -6.33 -2.88
225 Norfolk St. -8.69 -9.73 -6.56 -3.93
226 Long Beach St. -8.85 -10.25 -6.18 -3.03
227 Brown -8.86 -9.94 -6.61 -3.82
228 Hawaii -8.95 -9.89 -6.84 -4.04
229 DePaul -8.98 -10.79 -5.68 -2.28
230 Murray St. -9.03 -10.28 -6.16 -2.45
231 Mercer -9.05 -10.66 -5.7 -1.82
232 Hofstra -9.11 -10.55 -5.9 -1.77
233 San Diego -9.15 -10.47 -6.46 -3.16
234 Wagner -9.2 -10.1 -7.06 -3.99
235 Indiana St. -9.28 -11.06 -5.72 -1.72
236 Radford -9.37 -10.67 -6.75 -3.61
237 Cal St. Northridge -9.39 -10.4 -7.2 -4.36
238 Fordham -9.4 -11.11 -5.86 -1.93
239 Western Michigan -9.43 -10.93 -6.26 -2.55
240 Jacksonville -9.44 -10.32 -7.28 -4.14
241 IUPUI -9.59 -11.01 -6.71 -3.25
242 Nicholls St. -9.63 -10.8 -7.14 -4.08
243 Savannah St. -9.63 -10.66 -7.72 -5.51
244 Missouri -9.67 -11.48 -6.31 -2.91
245 Bowling Green -9.75 -11.02 -6.88 -3.22
246 Southeastern Louisiana -9.77 -10.77 -7.49 -4.35
247 Illinois Chicago -9.85 -10.92 -7.23 -3.62
248 Campbell -9.89 -10.8 -7.77 -4.85
249 Fairleigh Dickinson -9.9 -11.03 -7.43 -4.24
250 Portland -9.95 -11.47 -7.01 -3.6
251 UNLV -9.97 -11.61 -6.62 -2.76
252 Eastern Illinois -9.97 -11.03 -7.3 -3.52
253 Hampton -10.02 -10.89 -8.06 -5.36
254 Saint Louis -10.05 -11.67 -6.74 -3.02
255 Cal St. Fullerton -10.09 -10.78 -8.28 -5.51
256 Duquesne -10.1 -11.64 -7.01 -3.53
257 Abilene Christian -10.33 -11.22 -8.24 -5.34
258 Morgan St. -10.36 -11.15 -8.55 -6.03
259 UTSA -10.38 -11.52 -7.77 -4.29
260 Pepperdine -10.68 -12.11 -7.68 -3.99
261 South Carolina St. -10.68 -11.99 -8.44 -6.16
262 Air Force -10.68 -12.06 -7.59 -3.79
263 Incarnate Word -10.73 -11.71 -8.51 -5.56
264 Montana St. -10.73 -11.8 -8.17 -4.59
265 South Dakota St. -10.76 -12.27 -7.38 -3.08
266 St. Francis PA -10.79 -11.77 -8.56 -5.51
267 Southern -10.85 -11.64 -9.15 -6.91
268 Appalachian St. -10.87 -12.25 -8.04 -4.82
269 Kennesaw St. -10.9 -12.16 -8.05 -4.38
270 Northwestern St. -10.9 -11.87 -8.72 -5.87
271 Sacramento St. -10.91 -11.92 -8.51 -5.29
272 South Florida -10.96 -12.48 -7.93 -4.54
273 Western Illinois -11 -12.05 -8.61 -5.41
274 Quinnipiac -11.08 -12.48 -7.89 -3.79
275 Bradley -11.11 -12.95 -7.39 -3.22
276 Delaware -11.14 -12.67 -7.75 -3.57
277 UTEP -11.23 -12.41 -8.61 -5.35
278 Prairie View A&M -11.41 -12.63 -9.14 -6.54
279 Northern Colorado -11.5 -12.68 -9.03 -6.04
280 North Florida -11.54 -13.07 -8.38 -4.66
281 Florida Atlantic -11.54 -12.59 -9.16 -5.98
282 VMI -11.56 -12.86 -9.05 -6.29
283 Pacific -11.59 -13.13 -8.5 -4.87
284 UC Riverside -11.62 -12.57 -9.43 -6.37
285 Jackson St. -11.64 -12.52 -9.74 -7.28
286 Miami OH -11.67 -12.79 -8.98 -5.34
287 Southeast Missouri St. -11.79 -13.11 -8.82 -4.95
288 Maryland Eastern Shore -11.87 -13.17 -9.33 -6.48
289 Binghamton -11.94 -13.18 -9.18 -5.58
290 Sacred Heart -11.97 -12.88 -9.72 -6.36
291 Grambling St. -11.99 -12.72 -10.3 -7.9
292 Cleveland St. -12.07 -13.59 -8.84 -4.95
293 Dartmouth -12.1 -13.29 -9.47 -6.2
294 Eastern Kentucky -12.14 -13.46 -9.17 -5.28
295 Robert Morris -12.18 -13.41 -9.44 -5.81
296 Cornell -12.21 -13.58 -9.36 -5.99
297 Tennessee Tech -12.24 -13.64 -9.22 -5.43
298 Western Carolina -12.25 -13.98 -8.84 -5.09
299 The Citadel -12.45 -13.99 -9.33 -5.82
300 Central Arkansas -12.46 -13.78 -9.71 -6.15
301 Charleston Southern -12.63 -13.74 -10.36 -7.51
302 Oral Roberts -12.71 -14.35 -9.27 -5.22
303 Manhattan -12.8 -14.17 -9.76 -5.78
304 Youngstown St. -12.8 -14.12 -9.78 -5.82
305 Colgate -12.84 -14.05 -10.08 -6.32
306 McNeese St. -12.85 -13.86 -10.6 -7.55
307 Alabama St. -12.92 -13.83 -10.93 -8.39
308 Tulane -12.95 -14.75 -9.52 -5.88
309 Army -13.03 -14.17 -10.43 -6.97
310 UT Rio Grande Valley -13.07 -14.27 -10.37 -6.85
311 Louisiana Monroe -13.07 -14.5 -10.14 -6.7
312 Drexel -13.14 -14.72 -9.53 -5.01
313 NJIT -13.19 -14.51 -10.3 -6.6
314 Drake -13.19 -14.74 -9.98 -6.17
315 Bryant -13.22 -14.33 -10.74 -7.3
316 North Texas -13.23 -14.39 -10.62 -7.33
317 Cal Poly -13.26 -14.42 -10.62 -7.21
318 UMass Lowell -13.27 -14.44 -10.57 -6.94
319 Austin Peay -13.36 -14.74 -10.29 -6.29
320 Delaware St. -13.65 -14.81 -11.19 -8.08
321 Southern Miss -13.84 -15 -11.27 -7.94
322 Detroit -13.88 -15.33 -10.72 -6.84
323 Lafayette -14.07 -15.19 -11.44 -7.86
324 Idaho St. -14.15 -15.47 -11.33 -7.85
325 American -14.24 -15.45 -11.65 -8.36
326 Milwaukee -14.24 -15.8 -10.68 -6.22
327 Niagara -14.35 -15.61 -11.24 -6.92
328 Oregon St. -14.57 -16.42 -11.1 -7.46
329 Stetson -14.63 -15.69 -12.17 -8.73
330 Howard -14.76 -16.08 -12.27 -9.55
331 Florida A&M -14.79 -15.38 -13.34 -11.13
332 Mississippi Valley St. -14.91 -16.08 -12.67 -9.97
333 James Madison -15.02 -16.63 -11.38 -6.85
334 Longwood -15.13 -16.19 -12.81 -9.81
335 Marist -15.14 -16.53 -12 -7.89
336 Coppin St. -15.18 -16.51 -12.54 -9.54
337 Hartford -15.23 -16.47 -12.31 -8.33
338 UC Santa Barbara -15.25 -16.47 -12.65 -9.37
339 Chicago St. -15.27 -16.74 -12.18 -8.37
340 FIU -15.41 -16.48 -12.91 -9.47
341 Arkansas Pine Bluff -15.64 -16.64 -13.33 -10.24
342 Northern Arizona -16 -17.06 -13.32 -9.47
343 Presbyterian -16.36 -17.49 -13.78 -10.46
344 Bethune Cookman -16.44 -17.25 -14.61 -12.13
345 Maine -16.89 -18.29 -13.92 -10.19
346 Central Connecticut -17.04 -18.02 -14.64 -11.12
347 SIU Edwardsville -17.67 -18.99 -14.73 -10.86
348 Southern Utah -18.78 -19.89 -16.08 -12.29
349 St. Francis NY -19.15 -20.17 -16.75 -13.34
350 Alabama A&M -19.48 -20.35 -17.4 -14.57
351 North Carolina A&T -19.71 -20.67 -17.55 -14.62

 

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