WAB 1/22: Consensus?

We may be seeing a clear consensus that selection for the NCAA Tournament should be based on resume, not team quality. Inviting the 36 best at large teams sounds like a good idea, but in practice that leads you to discount wins and losses in favor of more predictive metrics. As for seeding, that’s a different matter entirely. The mere fact that we are learning to differentiate between “best” and “most deserving” is solid progress.

As for the resumes themselves, Baylor is back on top. Arizona took down UCLA and looked like a potential final four team in the process. Florida State defeated Louisville in another quality contest. Creighton looks to be in some trouble after losing Maurice Watson. They were a dark horse to make a deep run, but that take is now much more difficult. Losing at home to Marquette isn’t a good sign.

West Virginia has made it clear that they refuse to produce a resume commensurate with their power rating. Good luck to whomever faces this sleeping giant in the NCAA tournament.

Speaking of sleeping giants, Duke woke up at halftime against Miami. That second half was just a mean spirited beatdown. Duke is going to be a very tough team to defeat in March. Speaking of Duke, so long as Syracuse beats them exactly one month from today, I’ll be happy with this season.

No BPI or Sagarin because they don’t update on the weekends (A decision I hope they reverse in March)

Rank School WAB-KenPom Bubble Percentile
1 Baylor 6.08 99.99%
2 Villanova 5.90 99.97%
3 Kansas 5.51 99.93%
4 Gonzaga 4.80 99.95%
5 Butler 4.70 99.33%
6 Florida St. 4.63 99.71%
7 Arizona 4.60 99.57%
8 Louisville 4.12 98.75%
9 Kentucky 4.09 99.19%
10 Creighton 4.06 98.98%
11 North Carolina 3.98 98.58%
12 Notre Dame 3.90 98.89%
13 UCLA 3.85 99.13%
14 Wisconsin 3.67 97.93%
15 Virginia 3.18 96.77%
16 Cincinnati 2.90 96.57%
17 Maryland 2.79 95.01%
18 Oregon 2.63 94.51%
19 Florida 2.36 89.71%
20 South Carolina 2.16 88.44%
21 Duke 2.14 90.08%
22 Xavier 2.00 85.74%
23 Saint Mary’s 1.95 90.71%
24 Purdue 1.86 85.84%
25 UNC Wilmington 1.80 86.57%
26 West Virginia 1.78 86.28%
27 Northwestern 1.44 79.31%
28 Minnesota 1.39 77.73%
29 Kansas St. 1.38 80.49%
30 USC 1.37 78.09%
31 TCU 1.20 75.64%
32 Arkansas 1.13 74.78%
33 SMU 1.12 72.70%
34 Middle Tennessee 0.78 66.44%
35 Iowa St. 0.75 67.07%
36 Virginia Tech 0.68 65.46%
37 Wichita St. 0.62 62.97%
38 Clemson 0.54 61.65%
39 Dayton 0.49 59.89%
40 Wake Forest 0.47 60.17%
41 Marquette 0.46 60.33%
42 Akron 0.35 57.87%
43 Texas Tech 0.26 55.83%
44 New Mexico St. 0.21 53.19%
45 Illinois St. 0.10 50.70%
46 Seton Hall 0.10 52.09%
47 Indiana 0.03 50.32%
48 Valparaiso 0.02 48.99%
49 Nevada -0.04 47.36%
50 Michigan St. -0.08 48.15%
51 Oklahoma St. -0.26 44.36%
52 Chattanooga -0.27 41.43%
53 California -0.45 38.90%
54 Pittsburgh -0.51 38.72%
55 Utah -0.55 35.46%
56 Monmouth -0.57 34.80%
57 Miami FL -0.61 35.30%
58 UCF -0.64 32.24%
59 Vermont -0.68 32.43%
60 Michigan -0.69 34.39%
61 Belmont -0.69 30.62%
62 Memphis -0.71 32.76%
63 Georgia -0.72 34.20%
64 Auburn -0.74 32.59%
65 VCU -0.77 31.49%
66 La Salle -0.79 29.92%
67 Mississippi -0.81 31.88%
68 UT Arlington -0.84 28.75%
69 Ohio St. -0.97 27.94%
70 Providence -0.97 29.21%
71 Georgia Tech -1.13 25.89%
72 Winthrop -1.13 20.52%
73 Rhode Island -1.19 22.84%
74 College of Charleston -1.19 22.33%
75 Illinois -1.35 22.33%
76 UNC Greensboro -1.39 17.99%
77 Tennessee -1.52 19.64%
78 Florida Gulf Coast -1.53 15.88%
79 East Tennessee St. -1.54 15.56%
80 Arkansas St. -1.73 14.65%
81 Bucknell -1.84 13.00%
82 Mississippi St. -1.86 12.48%
83 North Carolina St. -1.96 12.62%
84 Boise St. -1.99 11.43%
85 Houston -1.99 12.97%
86 Alabama -2.09 11.31%
87 Oakland -2.11 8.17%
88 Stanford -2.21 10.01%
89 Tulsa -2.22 9.77%
90 BYU -2.32 8.07%
91 Georgia Southern -2.41 6.91%
92 Ohio -2.44 5.21%
93 Texas Southern -2.46 6.63%
94 North Dakota St. -2.47 6.27%
95 Texas A&M -2.47 6.63%
96 UNC Asheville -2.50 6.31%
97 Iowa -2.51 7.54%
98 Harvard -2.52 3.66%
99 Penn St. -2.59 8.27%
100 Vanderbilt -2.60 8.34%
101 Georgetown -2.61 7.89%
102 St. Bonaventure -2.63 5.01%
103 San Francisco -2.63 5.45%
104 George Mason -2.67 5.12%
105 Oklahoma -2.68 6.07%
106 Rutgers -2.71 5.11%
107 New Mexico -2.73 5.87%
108 Sam Houston St. -2.77 2.85%
109 Louisiana Lafayette -2.79 3.53%
110 Nebraska -2.81 6.38%
111 Richmond -2.81 5.22%
112 Temple -2.89 5.17%
113 Princeton -2.89 3.05%
114 Louisiana Tech -2.90 2.25%
115 Yale -2.92 2.69%
116 Grand Canyon -2.92 2.09%
117 Fresno St. -2.97 3.58%
118 San Diego St. -3.02 3.04%
119 Syracuse -3.05 3.94%
120 Eastern Michigan -3.06 2.66%
121 Fort Wayne -3.11 2.31%
122 Georgia St. -3.14 2.30%
123 Samford -3.28 1.63%
124 Loyola Chicago -3.31 2.64%
125 Eastern Washington -3.35 1.52%
126 Arizona St. -3.37 2.60%
127 Marshall -3.38 2.20%
128 Davidson -3.43 1.73%
129 UMBC -3.48 0.94%
130 UAB -3.53 1.55%
131 Cal St. Bakersfield -3.55 0.70%
132 Massachusetts -3.58 2.25%
133 Missouri St. -3.60 1.70%
134 New Hampshire -3.65 0.80%
135 New Orleans -3.70 0.65%
136 Rice -3.75 0.97%
137 North Carolina Central -3.79 0.47%
138 Wyoming -3.81 1.45%
139 Old Dominion -3.83 1.28%
140 LSU -3.90 1.70%
141 Tennessee Martin -4.00 0.69%
142 Lehigh -4.00 1.00%
143 George Washington -4.02 1.25%
144 Saint Joseph’s -4.06 1.06%
145 Furman -4.06 0.84%
146 Tennessee St. -4.10 0.59%
147 Northeastern -4.11 1.07%
148 Iona -4.21 0.77%
149 Canisius -4.22 0.69%
150 Colorado St. -4.24 0.67%
151 Colorado -4.31 0.87%
152 UC Irvine -4.35 0.47%
153 Central Michigan -4.39 0.32%
154 Weber St. -4.42 0.29%
155 Washington St. -4.46 0.43%
156 Jacksonville St. -4.48 0.62%
157 Wright St. -4.49 0.37%
158 Little Rock -4.55 0.12%
159 Green Bay -4.55 0.19%
160 Texas -4.60 0.47%
161 Northern Illinois -4.79 0.08%
162 Northern Kentucky -4.81 0.13%
163 USC Upstate -4.87 0.15%
164 St. John’s -4.89 0.32%
165 Nebraska Omaha -4.91 0.36%
166 Ball St. -4.91 0.05%
167 North Dakota -4.92 0.08%
168 Washington -4.96 0.13%
169 Denver -4.98 0.20%
170 William & Mary -5.02 0.10%
171 Albany -5.10 0.11%
172 Portland St. -5.14 0.02%
173 Charlotte -5.21 0.06%
174 South Dakota -5.22 0.15%
175 Boston College -5.22 0.14%
176 Towson -5.24 0.20%
177 Stony Brook -5.29 0.07%
178 Penn -5.33 0.03%
179 Elon -5.33 0.10%
180 Toledo -5.38 0.10%
181 Rider -5.39 0.06%
182 UNLV -5.39 0.10%
183 UC Davis -5.40 0.05%
184 East Carolina -5.42 0.04%
185 Connecticut -5.42 0.15%
186 LIU Brooklyn -5.48 0.03%
187 Columbia -5.50 0.01%
188 Northern Iowa -5.55 0.13%
189 Buffalo -5.55 0.06%
190 Southeastern Louisiana -5.56 0.02%
191 Brown -5.66 0.01%
192 Holy Cross -5.66 0.08%
193 Southern Illinois -5.66 0.05%
194 San Jose St. -5.73 0.02%
195 Gardner Webb -5.75 0.01%
196 Portland -5.76 0.02%
197 Santa Clara -5.78 0.04%
198 Saint Peter’s -5.80 0.03%
199 San Diego -5.93 0.02%
200 Illinois Chicago -5.94 0.01%
201 Texas A&M Corpus Chris -5.98 0.00%
202 Coastal Carolina -5.98 0.03%
203 Nicholls St. -6.06 0.01%
204 Lamar -6.11 0.00%
205 Utah St. -6.14 0.02%
206 Utah Valley -6.22 0.00%
207 Loyola Marymount -6.24 0.01%
208 Evansville -6.25 0.02%
209 Radford -6.27 0.00%
210 Texas St. -6.29 0.00%
211 Loyola MD -6.29 0.01%
212 Mount St. Mary’s -6.33 0.02%
213 Kent St. -6.39 0.01%
214 Fairfield -6.40 0.01%
215 Fairleigh Dickinson -6.41 0.01%
216 South Carolina St. -6.43 0.00%
217 Northwestern St. -6.53 0.00%
218 Boston University -6.59 0.01%
219 DePaul -6.60 0.01%
220 Stephen F. Austin -6.70 0.00%
221 Houston Baptist -6.71 0.00%
222 Murray St. -6.77 0.01%
223 Liberty -6.78 0.00%
224 Troy -6.86 0.00%
225 High Point -6.88 0.00%
226 Duquesne -6.96 0.00%
227 Idaho -7.02 0.00%
228 Fordham -7.05 0.01%
229 Mercer -7.09 0.01%
230 Seattle -7.14 0.00%
231 Jacksonville -7.17 0.00%
232 Montana -7.17 0.00%
233 Morehead St. -7.18 0.00%
234 Hawaii -7.18 0.00%
235 Hofstra -7.18 0.00%
236 Appalachian St. -7.23 0.00%
237 Navy -7.24 0.00%
238 Long Beach St. -7.24 0.00%
239 IUPUI -7.24 0.00%
240 UMKC -7.32 0.00%
241 Incarnate Word -7.32 0.00%
242 Wofford -7.38 0.00%
243 South Alabama -7.43 0.00%
244 Lipscomb -7.46 0.00%
245 UTSA -7.53 0.00%
246 Indiana St. -7.60 0.00%
247 Quinnipiac -7.61 0.00%
248 Siena -7.62 0.00%
249 Campbell -7.64 0.00%
250 Bowling Green -7.69 0.00%
251 Wagner -7.69 0.00%
252 Western Kentucky -7.74 0.00%
253 Abilene Christian -7.74 0.00%
254 Pacific -7.75 0.00%
255 Western Michigan -7.76 0.00%
256 Alcorn St. -7.81 0.00%
257 Savannah St. -7.92 0.00%
258 Air Force -7.98 0.00%
259 Northern Colorado -7.99 0.00%
260 Southern -7.99 0.00%
261 NJIT -8.05 0.00%
262 UC Riverside -8.09 0.00%
263 Binghamton -8.18 0.00%
264 South Florida -8.20 0.00%
265 Bradley -8.28 0.00%
266 Cal St. Fullerton -8.34 0.00%
267 Cornell -8.43 0.00%
268 McNeese St. -8.45 0.00%
269 Miami OH -8.47 0.00%
270 Oral Roberts -8.48 0.00%
271 Missouri -8.54 0.00%
272 North Florida -8.61 0.00%
273 Charleston Southern -8.62 0.00%
274 The Citadel -8.65 0.00%
275 Western Illinois -8.68 0.00%
276 Prairie View A&M -8.70 0.00%
277 Morgan St. -8.72 0.00%
278 Cal St. Northridge -8.82 0.00%
279 Saint Louis -8.83 0.00%
280 Army -8.85 0.00%
281 Eastern Illinois -8.87 0.00%
282 Western Carolina -8.88 0.00%
283 Manhattan -8.94 0.00%
284 Norfolk St. -8.96 0.00%
285 South Dakota St. -9.01 0.00%
286 St. Francis PA -9.07 0.00%
287 Louisiana Monroe -9.13 0.00%
288 UMass Lowell -9.13 0.00%
289 Grambling St. -9.14 0.00%
290 Drexel -9.15 0.00%
291 Youngstown St. -9.17 0.00%
292 Cleveland St. -9.21 0.00%
293 Montana St. -9.21 0.00%
294 UT Rio Grande Valley -9.23 0.00%
295 American -9.30 0.00%
296 Dartmouth -9.33 0.00%
297 Hampton -9.37 0.00%
298 Delaware -9.41 0.00%
299 Maryland Eastern Shore -9.54 0.00%
300 Sacramento St. -9.55 0.00%
301 Howard -9.58 0.00%
302 Southeast Missouri St. -9.60 0.00%
303 Jackson St. -9.62 0.00%
304 VMI -9.70 0.00%
305 North Texas -9.73 0.00%
306 Robert Morris -9.77 0.00%
307 Tulane -9.78 0.00%
308 Longwood -9.80 0.00%
309 Kennesaw St. -9.81 0.00%
310 Eastern Kentucky -9.90 0.00%
311 Austin Peay -9.93 0.00%
312 Marist -9.95 0.00%
313 Lafayette -9.98 0.00%
314 UC Santa Barbara -10.03 0.00%
315 Drake -10.07 0.00%
316 Southern Miss -10.08 0.00%
317 UTEP -10.23 0.00%
318 Tennessee Tech -10.24 0.00%
319 Pepperdine -10.25 0.00%
320 Stetson -10.26 0.00%
321 Florida Atlantic -10.38 0.00%
322 Sacred Heart -10.38 0.00%
323 Milwaukee -10.49 0.00%
324 Coppin St. -10.59 0.00%
325 Detroit -10.64 0.00%
326 Bryant -10.67 0.00%
327 Cal Poly -10.84 0.00%
328 Idaho St. -10.87 0.00%
329 Central Arkansas -10.88 0.00%
330 Chicago St. -10.91 0.00%
331 Delaware St. -10.99 0.00%
332 Hartford -11.09 0.00%
333 Mississippi Valley St. -11.11 0.00%
334 Alabama St. -11.16 0.00%
335 Niagara -11.29 0.00%
336 Colgate -11.42 0.00%
337 James Madison -11.49 0.00%
338 Oregon St. -11.68 0.00%
339 Florida A&M -11.83 0.00%
340 Presbyterian -12.16 0.00%
341 Maine -12.19 0.00%
342 FIU -12.22 0.00%
343 Bethune Cookman -12.59 0.00%
344 SIU Edwardsville -12.73 0.00%
345 Arkansas Pine Bluff -12.95 0.00%
346 Central Connecticut -13.49 0.00%
347 Southern Utah -13.54 0.00%
348 St. Francis NY -13.58 0.00%
349 Northern Arizona -13.75 0.00%
350 Alabama A&M -13.85 0.00%
351 North Carolina A&T -15.27 0.00%
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