NCAAF WAB as of 11/30/2016

Some notes:

  1. I have changed the baseline for WAB. It now reflects the record relative to an average team, not a strong team. In other words, an average team would expect to go roughly 5-7 vs. Alabama’s schedule.
  2. Washington’s schedule is garbage. They may be a better football team than Colorado, but going 11-1 vs. Washington’s schedule looks quite a bit easier than going 10-2 vs. Colorado’s. This isn’t a question of baseline either.I could have left the baseline unchanged, and Colorado would still be well ahead of Washington.
  3. Switching the baseline punished Western Michigan. Frankly, this may be a more realistic assessment of their accomplishments, but it bums me out nevertheless.
  4. Wisconsin’s resume is better than Michigan’s, and will be significantly so if they beat Penn State. Oddly, if Penn State and Washington both win, there is a good shot I’ll end up with Penn State having a top four resume. The Big 10 was absolutely stacked this year.

 

WAB Rank Team WAB Percentile
1 Alabama 7.03 0.00%
2 Ohio State 5.81 0.00%
3 Clemson 5.47 0.01%
4 Wisconsin 4.67 0.07%
5 Colorado 4.43 0.15%
6 Penn State 4.38 0.15%
7 Michigan 4.33 0.15%
8 Florida State 4.10 0.37%
9 Oklahoma 3.94 0.42%
10 Stanford 3.86 0.79%
11 Western Michigan 3.80 0.27%
12 West Virginia 3.56 0.98%
13 Washington 3.44 0.81%
14 Boise State 3.29 1.98%
15 Nebraska 2.99 2.05%
16 Virginia Tech 2.98 2.70%
17 South Florida 2.77 2.92%
18 Louisville 2.71 4.02%
19 Auburn 2.59 4.05%
20 Pittsburgh 2.52 4.19%
21 Tennessee 2.42 6.24%
22 Houston 2.28 6.32%
23 Oklahoma State 2.27 6.19%
24 Georgia Tech 2.25 6.88%
25 Tulsa 2.17 6.31%
26 Navy 2.17 7.77%
27 Utah 2.05 9.14%
28 USC 1.93 7.79%
29 Washington State 1.90 10.33%
30 Iowa 1.79 11.53%
31 Troy 1.72 10.35%
32 Air Force 1.71 13.93%
33 Minnesota 1.60 14.05%
34 Florida 1.56 15.14%
35 Temple 1.55 14.87%
36 Memphis 1.47 17.81%
37 Toledo 1.46 17.15%
38 Appalachian State 1.36 18.28%
39 North Carolina 1.35 17.55%
40 Kansas State 1.32 18.18%
41 Western Kentucky 1.29 19.09%
42 Miami-FL 1.23 17.14%
43 Arkansas 1.20 19.63%
44 LSU 1.18 17.27%
45 Wyoming 1.09 24.22%
46 San Diego State 1.07 24.84%
47 BYU 1.00 24.56%
48 Kentucky 0.94 26.38%
49 Texas A&M 0.60 32.06%
50 Colorado State 0.57 35.41%
51 Georgia 0.47 38.36%
52 Middle Tennessee 0.45 37.98%
53 Ole Miss 0.41 36.45%
54 Northwestern 0.28 42.32%
55 Idaho 0.23 43.66%
56 New Mexico 0.11 47.44%
57 TCU 0.02 49.51%
58 Maryland 0.01 49.69%
59 Baylor -0.03 50.80%
60 Vanderbilt -0.06 50.89%
61 Boston College -0.08 51.93%
62 California -0.16 53.49%
63 Ohio -0.23 57.16%
64 Old Dominion -0.24 58.10%
65 Wake Forest -0.24 56.78%
66 Indiana -0.27 57.92%
67 SMU -0.37 59.63%
68 NC State -0.45 63.73%
69 Arizona State -0.60 64.74%
70 Louisiana Tech -0.64 68.24%
71 Eastern Michigan -0.65 66.73%
72 South Carolina -0.66 65.69%
73 Texas Tech -0.87 70.36%
74 Central Michigan -0.90 71.76%
75 Southern Miss -1.02 79.87%
76 Mississippi State -1.05 77.01%
77 Oregon -1.07 75.44%
78 UTSA -1.10 80.11%
79 Arkansas State -1.23 82.23%
80 Oregon State -1.23 78.90%
81 Texas -1.23 78.27%
82 Army -1.30 83.19%
83 Central Florida -1.55 84.51%
84 Syracuse -1.60 86.65%
85 Northern Illinois -1.74 87.36%
86 UCLA -1.90 89.53%
87 Hawaii -1.91 89.60%
88 Missouri -1.97 89.60%
89 Duke -1.98 91.61%
90 Arizona -2.17 92.77%
91 Michigan State -2.19 94.05%
92 Miami-OH -2.20 93.50%
93 Akron -2.28 93.82%
94 UL-Monroe -2.33 96.93%
95 Cincinnati -2.43 94.06%
96 Illinois -2.44 95.55%
97 UL-Lafayette -2.49 97.83%
98 Notre Dame -2.51 94.53%
99 South Alabama -2.53 95.72%
100 Georgia Southern -2.59 97.11%
101 UNLV -2.77 98.00%
102 Iowa State -2.92 97.43%
103 San Jose State -2.98 97.61%
104 UTEP -3.01 98.84%
105 Tulane -3.03 96.76%
106 North Texas -3.07 98.61%
107 Purdue -3.18 98.31%
108 Rutgers -3.22 99.02%
109 Ball State -3.27 98.94%
110 Kansas -3.39 98.71%
111 Nevada -3.45 99.00%
112 New Mexico State -3.52 99.01%
113 Georgia State -3.58 99.75%
114 Bowling Green -3.59 99.79%
115 Florida International -3.79 99.07%
116 Utah State -3.79 99.70%
117 Connecticut -3.88 99.38%
118 East Carolina -3.93 99.60%
119 Kent State -4.23 99.97%
120 Virginia -4.41 99.94%
121 Rice -4.58 99.94%
122 Marshall -4.70 99.97%
123 Texas State -4.78 99.95%
124 Charlotte -5.21 99.99%
125 Fresno State -5.90 100.00%
126 Massachusetts -6.13 100.00%
127 Florida Atlantic -6.26 100.00%
128 Buffalo -6.59 100.00%
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