Nate Cohn takes a winding path, arrives roughly on market

The Upshot is betting rather lightly on a Hillary victory:

Race Side Risking To Win Result
President Clinton 3.20% 0.63% 0.00%

That’s not the interesting part. What interesting is how we got here:

Alaska Trump 51.20% 10.04% 0.00%
Arizona Trump 27.00% 10.19% 0.00%
Colorado Clinton 20.80% 3.71% 0.00%
Georgia Clinton 5.89% 26.50% 0.00%
Iowa Clinton 14.78% 39.46% 0.00%
Michigan Clinton 59.20% 14.44% 0.00%
Nevada Trump 9.41% 32.00% 0.00%
Maine Clinton 31.00% 5.25% 0.00%
New Hampshire Clinton 18.40% 7.08% 0.00%
North Carolina Clinton 24.18% 19.66% 0.00%
Ohio Clinton 9.05% 13.85% 0.00%
Pennsylvania Clinton 33.45% 6.62% 0.00%
Utah Not Trump 7.12% 34.55% 0.00%
Virginia Clinton 47.00% 4.95% 0.00%
Wisconsin Clinton 47.50% 7.31% 0.00%

I’d have expected them to be betting on Clinton a little more aggressively given the individual state projections. Note the implied bet on McMullin in Utah. As for the Senate:

Indiana Bayh 6.23% 9.65% 0.00%
Missouri Kander 4.14% 7.25% 0.00%
North Carolina Ross 2.57% 4.50% 0.00%
New Hampshire X 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Nevada Heck 0.42% 0.70% 0.00%
Pennsylvania Toomey 7.72% 20.45% 0.00%
Wisconsin X 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

For the most part. fairly blah. We end up with this as the major financial stake:

Race Side Risking To Win Result
President Clinton 32000 6337 0

Not that big a deal (financially) either way.

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