I can’t get over this regarding Colorado:
- These simulations show a margin of error of 1.6 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
- They also suggest voters are 4.0% undecided. We added 1.3 points to our state-level and national margins of error.
- Ignoring national trends, Clinton has a 100.0% chance of winning here.
If one truly believed this, one should wager as much as possible. Market prices range from -560 to -600 on a Clinton win in Colorado. Still, let’s focus on the big market:
That is some serious confidence in Clinton (98.1%). Bet big, win big. Some battleground state bets:
North Carolina is going to be exciting. As for the Senate:
Nevada is a special case as Huffpost hasn’t updated, but the market has moved. The rest are all accurate as to the most recent update. However, the only heavily liquid market is the Presidential race, where it is possible to bet very, very large:
We’ll see how things go for prognosticator Jackson.