Natalie Jackson (Huffpost) Thinks Colorado is a Lock

I can’t get over this regarding Colorado:

  1. These simulations show a margin of error of 1.6 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
  2. They also suggest voters are 4.0% undecided. We added 1.3 points to our state-level and national margins of error.
  3. Ignoring national trends, Clinton has a 100.0% chance of winning here.

If one truly believed this, one should wager as much as possible. Market prices range from -560 to -600 on a Clinton win in Colorado. Still, let’s focus on the big market:

Race Side Risking To Win Result
President Clinton 88.51% 17.53% 0.00%

That is some serious confidence in Clinton (98.1%). Bet big, win big. Some battleground state bets:

North Carolina Clinton 74.36% 60.45% 0.00%
Florida Clinton 67.55% 34.64% 0.00%
Arizona Trump 56.93% 21.48% 0.00%
Iowa Trump 41.37% 13.35% 0.00%

North Carolina is going to be exciting. As for the Senate:

Indiana Young 84.21% 130.52% 0.00%
Missouri Kander 2.26% 3.95% 0.00%
North Carolina Burr 31.35% 12.79% 0.00%
New Hampshire Ayotte 50.28% 41.55% 0.00%
Nevada x 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Pennsylvania McGinty 87.40% 24.97% 0.00%
Wisconsin Feingold 93.25% 26.64% 0.00%

Nevada is a special case as Huffpost hasn’t updated, but the market has moved. The rest are all accurate as to the most recent update. However, the only heavily liquid market is the Presidential race, where it is possible to bet very, very large:

Race Side Risking To Win Result
President Clinton 885050 175257 0

We’ll see how things go for prognosticator Jackson.

 

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