Loosely Speaking, Nate Silver is Betting the Farm on Trump

Nate Silver understands the value of putting your money where your mouth is:

A Bet is a Tax on Bullshit

As such, Nate understands that wagering results is how you keep score on the accuracy of predictions. We mark to market around here. Let’s start at the top:

Race Side Risking To Win Result
President Trump 21.93% 98.01% 0.00%

Nate is betting yuge on Trump. We can see in the individual state betting how strong he feels:

Alaska Clinton 0.61% 2.08% 0.00%
Colorado Trump 9.68% 35.83% 0.00%
Florida Trump 26.54% 46.44% 0.00%
Maine Trump 4.26% 16.62% 0.00%
Minnesota Trump 9.80% 81.35% 0.00%
Nevada Trump 35.04% 119.12% 0.00%
New Hampshire Trump 1.07% 1.92% 0.00%
New Mexico Trump 5.03% 28.93% 0.00%
North Carolina Trump 13.96% 17.45% 0.00%
Ohio Trump 14.94% 9.05% 0.00%
Pennsylvania Trump 5.21% 17.45% 0.00%
Rhode Island Trump 1.78% 23.12% 0.00%
South Carolina Clinton 0.75% 7.10% 0.00%
Virginia Trump 4.14% 21.52% 0.00%
Wisconsin Trump 1.20% 5.04% 0.00%

Minnesota and Nevada would both be huge payoffs for Nate. For the record, these are the full Kelly wagering %’s, but the state markets aren’t nearly as large as the Presidential market. In real terms, Nate could bet high a few thousand on these, and pretty much as much as he wants on the Presidential race. And then there are the competitive Senate races:

Indiana Young 3.54% 1.81% 0.00%
Missouri Kander 14.36% 25.13% 0.00%
North Carolina Burr 8.58% 3.50% 0.00%
New Hampshire Ayotte 1.80% 1.89% 0.00%
Nevada Heck 9.26% 15.28% 0.00%
Pennsylvania Toomey 11.99% 31.77% 0.00%
Wisconsin Feingold 23.05% 6.59% 0.00%

A Kander or Toomey upset would likely put him in the black in the Senate scoring. However, as with the state races, the liquidity here isn’t remotely close to what it is as the Presidential level. In terms of dollars, here is how it would look:

Race Side Risking To Win Result
President Trump 219271 980140 0

With max-limit bets on the various other races. So loosely speaking, it’s Trump or Bust:

 

 

 

 

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: